that they'll get their job back and that paints an optimistic take on what we can expect. >> it has not really altered the outlook at least right now for the consumer and also the consumer balance sheet was in decent shape unlike many times going into a recession you did not see excess leverage and by the way, the housing market is sturdy at this point. >> we are out of time on "closing bell," thanks so much for watching and we'll hand it over to fast money. >> fast money starts right now i'm melissa lee. tonight's trader lineup, guy adami, tim seymour, dan nathan and karen finerman something exceedingly rare just happened in the market carter worth will tell us what it is and how to trade it. plus one of our traders just went short this ultimate stay at home stock why netflix is no longer chill later, pop the bubbly because the dow jones industrial average just turned 124 years old today, but is the index in serious need of a makeover? we are breaking down some blue

chip botox straight ahead and we start with the rorschach test. which did you see today? the dow closing at its highest level since march 10th and vaccine hopes with stills and stocks closing near session lows and the relationship 500 failing to hold its 200-day moving average or guy adami, how do you interpret the ink blot >> being that i can't see it, is that the guy from welcome back cotter, mel or no, that rorschach test guy i think we're having problems with guy's audio tim seymour, we'll go to you on this which ink blot did you see today? >> i actually heard guy and he made a bad joke of welcome back to cotter. it was closing near march highs and i think we have a case where the reopening has allowed people to look at industrial and call them value stocks, but the ones that were the most beaten up and

to begin to assess what schedules are going to look like for airlines out through kind of early to mid-summer. we have no idea, but we also have some sense that the worst case has been largely priced in for a lot of the big industrial names. a gm had a big breakout day and then you had the banks which i know we'll spend some more time on and some sense between where the yield curve is at its worst and that the consumer may be better is part of that rally and maybe the best part of the rally, frankly was in some of the beaten up retail stocks and some of the folks being left for dead, maybe they don't make a sustainable rally and they make for a sense of catch-up, that if you take a look at how the market performed it wasn't growth it was value and that was something people wanted to see so my glass is rorschach or rorschach, whatever this is. >> you guys know the rorschach test, right? you show the person an ink blot. you ask them what they see and it reveals their, mobile state and perhaps traits about their

personality, dan nathan, i have a feeling i know which ink blot you see just knowing you for so long, but go ahead what did you make of the rally today? >> really unimpressive when tim just points to those groups that rallied or that closed decently today when you are thinking about retailers and you're thinking about industrials and you're thinking about these transports and the banks, these are some of the hardest groups and i would say that the banks are probably the highest quality of all of those and the rally was the most impressive and i don't think you can say if you look at maga and the nasdaq in general closing down 2% from the morning highs that that's the most disappointing thing given their outperformance, but i will say this, if you are relying on the back half of this year in early 2021 you are not paying attention to what's going on >> one in five workers are unemployed right now and they're benefiting a lot of them from $600 a week from unemployment

benefits and this is not a consumer and i don't care if it's coming back in a meaningful way and they'll go north of 20% unemployment to possibly 10% that's the floor in the back half of this year and probably the floor for much of 2021, double the lows where we were just four or five months ago i just do not see the consumer coming back in a meaningful way. i see new and different jobs going away in the next year. i say this with no glee. it's just sad that the stock market is just dislocated from that economic reality. >> karen, what did you make of the action today. >> i -- i understand and share dan's dislocation except for the fed that the fed has sort of told us it would be there and it wouldn't be shocking if once the money runs out if they would reload again we have a lot of tools left and they're not done

i do think we'll also see congress do something, some sort of stimulus, as well so if you think that those government, the fed and government can get out of the way of the business cycle which i do kind of believe then i reluctantly say this rally kind of makes sense if you put on top of that you see just tons of pictures over the weekend and mem olial day and the consumer has been let free, right? how many places did you see that they were full or very busy and the consumer wants to be out there and wants to spend and at the moment even if they're not employed they still have income. so for the moment, i think we're going to continue to see growth, albeit off of a horrific low horrific low, but i wouldn't short this market down here. some of the retail stuff will start to see better -- and we'll have more clarity when they report earnings and i think

ralph lauren reports tomorrow and the stock's probably up 15% in the last few trading sessions so the bar's gotten a lot higher for them, but let's see how bad it actually is, and as you know, and we'll get to it and long banks and i'm bullish banks. >> i think you have embroidered on a sampler don't bet against a consumer against the ink blot that you have as well in your home. what do you make of the consumer at this point and if you cannot bank on a consumer who will be opening up their wallets in the coming months, should we be pessimistic about this market rally? >> well, you know, 36 million people unemployed before anybody ever heard of the coronavirus, consumer debt to gdp was north of 52% which is historic levels. you can talk about the consumer's ability to spend, but it doesn't mean you should be spending and i said it a hundred different times, never bet against the consumers, should

they be spending is another question in and of itself. i was shocked because i thought we would fail in the s&p and i think the market had every potential piece of good news and being looking past what's right in front of them and we have this reopening and we don't know what's going to happen and in terms of the market the market is more expensive now, significantly, by the way, than it was when the s&p 500 is making all-time highs and that's assuming you have $130 worth of earnings which i don't think we'll get anywhere near now. the argument is you have to write off this year and from will be some sort of recovery in 2021 maybe, but i still think that too much optimism is being priced into this market right now. >> here's a hypothetical question and i'll go to tim seymour on this. we've been rallying on the hopes of a vaccine and hopes of a treatment. what happens if tomorrow a company said we have a vaccine that is going to be approved by

the fda and we are going to start distribution of this vaccine and injecting people is that a sell the news event? i mean, are -- i guess the question is are we in the stage right now where it's buy the rumor, the rumor of the cure, of the treatment and if we do get a vaccine that's sell the news >> no. it's not sell the news because there are a number of companies that really were -- i've used this metaphor and we're watching an hour glass and watching the sand tick through to kind of count how much or how many months they have left of cash flow i actually don't think it's an entirely sell the moment i do think the other thing we haven't mentioned so far early in the show is the china factor which guy has brought up early we spend a lot of time on this show last week talking about some major issue for the market because it's a major issue for the economy and so i think there are different things that has the market moving around and in fact, closing on the lows was as much about china headlines than it was, hey, ken frazier of

merck, highly, highly credible pharma man that's just not going to happen overnight. i think the market would like it and i don't think it will be time to sell the news. i do think there are a lot of places where, in fact, we built in the big fear factor, and i think a lot of that has rallied back especially in some of the big growth names i think they could actually give something back and i think we saw some of that today the things that we're selling off most into the close and the things that underperformed was growth, and that's where you get a little bit of an exhale. no i don't think it sells on a vaccine. this market wants a vaccine. >> karen, become to you before we get to the charts and carter. >> i agree i agree, and tim just touched on it, that rotation. that rotation will really start to go berserk, the one today, or it found some legs today if there were news of a vaccine >> all right the s&p 500 as we mentioned

failed to hold above the 3,000 level today. the chart master said something exceedingly rare just happened that really sounds like carter let's get to carter worth for more carter >> how exciting. actually, that was the title of monday's report, and it's about health care and the performance of midcap versus the index let's look at a chart of the s&p and in a way this was a day for everyone bears can call out the big fade and basically closing on the low. the bulls can call it that they're up again and what we do know is that the market stopped dead cold to the penny, in fact, at its 150-day moving average and basically could never push higher from there. we also know it's the same situation yes, the market is down 7% for the year and the median stock is down almost 14 and it's still a party of just a few and that remains the problem. >> in any event, what is exceedingly rare is the health care midcap stocks and the s&p

midcap index so take a look at the first slide here the second slide ask it will show you the spread, the year to date spread and at no time has the history of the data been this wide where you have the sector and the health care being down up percent plus, minus and the index being down 14, 15. 2500 basis point spread. take a look at the two charts that depict this the first chart is comparing the two lines and it's the sector itself versus the index and the next shot, think s on a two-year basis. one can say so what? when -- here's the thing when its happened in relation to the health care, where it's up from large cap health care by as much as a thousand basis points. what happens is going forward it's actually exceedingly

bullish for mid-cap health care and remains bullish for large cap and there's a little bit of a catch-up even though they still don't outperform men, and yet the market is tepid. so an interesting setup and something that's never happened before in terms of spread and something to be watched. >> the market is tepid does that mean that you should extrapolate that you believe in this rotation that you see the rally in banks today and industrials? >> sure. let's take a second on that. the hope is that the cyclicals come to life and that means the economy is better and people are bracing for risk what we know is people have expended a lot of energy in the market regional banks are up 40, 50% off the lows and so are certain signals and yet we've had a big move out of all of the stretch tech names and they're back at former highs, and apple, microsoft and adobe. so at this point we've had quite a big move from some of th beaten up names and were the rotation really to take force,

there's too much money in the big end of the market. if you have money coming out of the highfliers there's not enough sponges at the bottom of the market to absorb the money >> very vivid. carter, thank you. carter braxton-worth bay the way -- we're having spotty particular tech issues so guy's grayed out in the meantime, i'll go to you, what do you think of carter's thoughts and healthcare specifically >> health care is interesting. i think that spread is interesting and there's tremendous focus from so many different parts of the investment universe on the sector we're pinning a lot of economic hopes on what the companies are able to do with therapies and vaccines and everyone is optimistic about it and that is well reflected in the stocks and i look at the ibb and that's the itf that tracks the biotech sector and i would say it got ahead of itself and it broke out

to a new all-time high and there's a massive double top if you go back to 2015 and then there's probably a level where you can reload and buy that at 120 if you're playing with a lot of the catalysts that you'll see play out over the next year, year and a half or so. here's the thing, i think carter said this. i think there are a lot of different sectors and the broad market will be pricing in a lot of the best-case news in the next six to 12 months and i don't see a panic to buy here especially if you see a rejection at a key technical level and i don't want to put too much emphasis on that and at the end of the day i think the things that will take us higher to his point will be the mega-caps. >> merck taking a major step forward in the efforts to combat the coronavirus and the latest on when we can expect a viable vaccine to hit the market and later, is this the end of the stay at home boom. the one stock that may be telling the tale of the tape fast money is back in two. i got an oriole here.

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now that's... simple. easy. awesome. xfinity x1 just got even better with peacock premium included at no additional cost. no strings attached. just say "peacock" into your voice remote to start watching today. we have breaking news out of washington kayla tausche has the latest kayla? >> melissa, president trump is taking questions from reporters after an event in the rose garden announcing the lowering of the cost of insulin for seniors under medicare part d, but president trump was asked about the economy and specifically about his actions on china in the wake of that national security law that china has introduced related to hong kong president trump said it's too early to talk about exactly what position the administration would take and how it would respond to that, but president trump saying that stay tuned for the next couple of ways and that you would hear more on that by the end of the week.

>> on the economy he said that next year is going to be one of the best years ever in the economy after what he is calling this transition to greatness comes fully into fruition. he acknowledges that the data has been and will continue to be bad in the near-term, but that the third quarter and the fourth quarter will be a strong rebound, again, echoing his belief that there will be a v-shaped recovery in the american economy he has said this before and we will see this as the data bears out and president trump as he is trying to lay the groundwork for his forthcoming election or campaign, rather, that's under way trying to signal that if you re-elect him, melissa, that the economy will get even better than it was before the coronavirus. back to you. >> kayla, he was specifically talking about the economy and not the stock market >> caller: well, he went on a riff, melissa, about a very many things to do with the economy and the stock market, but just

continuing to hammer home the idea that he believes that once businesses start to reopen that the economy and the market will continue rebounding and that next year will be, in his word, the best year ever >> kale a thank you. kayla tausche in washington. >> guy adami, i go to you. i'm not sure if you have thoughts about his prognostications, but i found much more interesting the teedzer that you'll get an announcement about the u.s. response to china's actions in hong kong by the end of the week >> yeah, and it's something and i apologize, my audio went down and i'm sorry. tim mentioned and we've been talking about the situation with the chinese and now that the market and basically the highest that we've been in a couple of months and i'm sure thiscomes to the equation and i'm sure president trump has things to play in terms of the rhetoric with the chinese and i don't think that's market positive and i'm glad you asked kayla that question because the chasm between the real economy and the stock market has probably never

been wider and it's going to continue to do so. so when i think when president trump talks about the economy, he's really talking about the stock market because as we all remember, three and a half years ago he talked about the stock market being the report card for his administration it's extraordinarily important to do well, but i think at this jufrn juncture he feels like he has wiggle room. >> shares getting a pop in the fight against the coronavirus. meg tirrell joins us with more hey, meg >> hey, mel. merck announcing three different moves in the covid-19 space and one it's in-licensing an antiviral drug in phase one trials and also making deals on two different vaccine projects using technology that it says has been proven in other vaccines now they plan to start human clinical trials with themore advanced vaccine candidates putting that around june or july after several companies have already started human trials and

we did talk to ken frazier, the ceo of merck about the timeliness we should expect and he was more cautious than we've heard of other ceos. here's what he said. >> we'll try approach this in a very responsible and also aggressive fashion so i'm not in a position today to say exactly what the time line will be we will move as quickly and as responsibly as we can. as you know, clinical trials take a long time and if you're going to immunize, a lot of people, millions, if not billions of people we will have to make sure you know exactly what that vaccine will do with people and you can essentially ensure the safety of people. >> mel, of course, this an important announcement because merck has so much credibility in vaccine development and also so many resources we asked them how much they're planning to spend here and how much they're willing to spend and he said as much as it takes to get a vaccine

back over to you >> i'm curious and i'm asking you to do a bit of tea leaf reading and did you take ken frazier's comments as a dig on the competition or a dig on some of the smaller companies that have never gotten a product across the finish line who are making bold promises in terms of timeliness >> i didn't take it as a dig i took it as sort of a more of a pride in merck and its history, but he did say something that was fascinating and sarah asked him about moderna and what they're accomplishing and getting into human trials and the potential of a vashg seen and an accelerated and emergency use timeframe and he said one of the technology is its speed. merck is not going for speed and they're going for the best possible vaccine and that was the undercurrent in what ken was trying to impart with that comment. >> meg, thank you. meg tirrell keeping on top of it for us karen finerman, we talked a lot

about the hopes for vaccines and treatments and specifically moderna. would you -- and not that you would invest in a moderna, but would you invest in a merck based on the hope was a vaccine or the lasting impact on revenues, it won't be there. it will be short lived >> right i do sort of think it will be short lived if you think about how much pressure there is with a vaccine and there are many companies that have vaccines and how much pressure will be on them to deliver absolutely as cheaply as possible and so i think merck has a much stronger -- you know, they're not just going to be a vaccine and a covid vaccine company, right? i feel much safer with them and moderna and i don't know about the company, but the stock seems

like they feel like they bet the farm on a covid vaccine. i hope that comes to pass and we haven't really seen much news from moderna since they priced at, what 76 and the stock -- i don't know, 57, 58 although -- i could -- i wouldn't touch it i wouldn't touch it. merck, yes moderna, no. >> moderna's stock is below friday's close so the friday before they released the data, so it's given back every single pen of pop that we saw, dan, that it had for a day or so. >> yeah. not only that. the stock market rallied 2% on that news and everybody with their pom-poms came running out. >> listen, i want a vaccine as quick as anyone else does, but the gap and then the secondary that the ceo is selling stock every opportunity that he a years to have and he sold

millions and millions and when you listen to a ceo, ken frazier and how they're setting their priorities, and you say to ever invest, and if appear that they're looking to change a company like merck which will do his job be a -- gilead getting analysts and raising the price target to their 73 a share and joining us next is robyn karnauskas welcome to the show. this isn't a table pounding upgrade. it's from a hold to a sell and the difference here is that you're actually incorporating numbers from remdesivir. your best case is modeling $10,000 per treatment. who is paying for this we're trying to understand as a group here on the show the sort

of pressure that companies may face from governments who say you should give this to us at cost during the pandemic. >> experts we've spoken say it will be a balance between public perception and recouping cost and generating revenue dpr shareholders, but i would argue that $10,000 is not a bad price per course for several reasons and the health care system can handle it. >> currently, we would see that the government or in europe, for example, would be paying for it and eventually the payer system and the government would be paying for it and in some areas they'd be given free at cost there are reasons why we think the $10,000 course is reasonable the drugs will only be given to hospitalized patients and there are only 200 hospitalizations of the 1.5 million cases of covid and that's declining so even at $10,000 a course you

say 100,000 get the drug and it costs the system $3 billion and every time the patient is in the hospital, remember this reduces your hospital stay by four days and every day you're in there it's at least $10,000 a day. you are saving a lot of money through the health care system and the third part is we don't know how much the drug will cost, the iv they'll spend up to $1 million to make just 1.5 million course us of drugs and we are molding a and just enough for what it takes to make the drug it reduces the system by reducing the amount of time people are in the hospital. >> governments who want to stockpile this treatment for future pandemics and future outbreaks and at the same time you're saying that conservatively you will see zero revenues beyond 2022 and the way we should look at this drug, is

it similar to roche and tamiflu in terms of the trajectory and then leveling off. >> what i'm seeing is there's seasonality, and which is why we don't model revenues after 2022. i want -- so we assume some stockpiling in the latter half of 2022 since the marine will want to buy. maybe they will stockpile a little bit maybe they'll stockpile vaccines we don't know what is going to happen quite yet we do model some stockpiling and that's what i say is the big upside risk for having the piece for gilead is that the government is stockpiling 500,000 doses. the shelf life of this drug may only be five years

we don't really know and it might be wise to stockpile that many, and what we are seeing in the model. >> what's your number one reason why gilead is not a buy. >> to be a bay you would have to assume covid would be a continuous revenue stream or they would have to sell 20 billion to $40 billion worth of drugs. number one, we think that would be a very negative headline for the company so we don't think they'll do that. they'll price it at such, and number two, we just don't think that given that this is a hospitalized drug, we don't see that many people getting the drug right now the demand is much low or what they can make. >> robyn, great speaking to you. thanks for your time >> robyn of suntrust >> what do you make of gilead? >> she stuck to her guns with the stock call and it rallied to 85 and now here we are 72 or so,

so that was a great call by them if nothing else you have something to trade against with $70 being the floor. countless times they're a victim of their own success and when you talk about what they did in the hepatitis world and i don't think you can bet the ranch on remdesivir it's a trading stock here and you own it at 70 bucks we've said that moderna in this world of covid-19 and that's proven to be correct. >> as guy said, hiv, the things that are slowly diminishing and it's just not enough and the balance sheet is fantastic and the business is solid and you don't own it for remdesivir and i don't think you own any of these companies for a vaccine.

as we've heard between the economics and the long term forecasting which is very challenging and obviously the social factor. so i think gilead is neutral here and their core business is solid with a core pipeline that is diminishing so you don't need to chase anything. >> coming up, bank stocks catching a big bid posting their biggest gains in over 2 months and one big bank ceo that could signal more strength ahead, plus a surprise rise in home sales giving heoers omwna boost. how it reports for toll brothers as it gets ready to report tomorrow "fast money" is back in two. this is a tempur-pedic mattress. and its mission is to give you truly transformative sleep. so, no more tossing and turning... or trouble falling asleep. because only tempur-pedic uses proprietary tempur® material... that continuously adapts and responds to your body, to relieve pressure... so you get deep, uninterrupted sleep. all night. every night. the tempur-pedic summer of sleep starts now,

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welcome back to "fast money" up, up and away. ceo jamie dimon, j.p. morgan is a valuable company at these prices so we have to go to karen on this one, obviously. she's been a long time holder of j.p. morgan and a huge fan of jamie dimon. yes. i'm a huge fan, and i listen to his presentation fortunately, was there no video so i had to look at the poster of what i had and i did like what he had to say he's pretty optimistic and he pointed out things that were different than they were in the financial crisis and how much better capitalized the banks are, how the consumer is hanging in there he talked about i know the credit quality now is better than it was and he'd give the example about one-third of those that requested forbearance for

housing didn't actually do it and if you think about where the housing market is now, very few people are under water and they are going to be paying their mortgage and where they were so under water and it didn't matter where they paid and with the valuation here and also importantly with the zero rates at the moment seeming to not be on the table, i think they can still earn a decent amount of money even for the second half of the year and he did say it would take a big charge for the second quarter which everyone expe expects and the credit quality will be enough that they're adequate and they can still make money this year, for all those reasons and jamie dimon, i'm long >> i go to bay because i heard these comments from jamie dimon and i thought that you would point out to the dimon bottom.

>>. >> look at you, you called back in february, i think it was february 8, 2016, i think that was the day the s&p tradedin fe february 8, 2016, i think that was the day the s&p traded down to 1810 or show and he announced that he bought stock p.a. and that, basically, was the bottom and that was it and the market never looked back so he has a knack of doing this and maybe we'll look back and see the same thing in terms of the banks today. it's interesting carter was right on the banks and the banks did crater and so did dan and we had sevida on and what i said for a while and what i continue to say when j.p. morgan said it was a $62 tangible book, you put a 1.85 multiple and i think that's where it's going, despite my view on the broader market >> i see all of these guys on the box even when they're not on

the screen and dan is shaking his head, no surprise. >> i'm surprised you didn't ask karen about jamie dimon's bottom, but interestingly enough it sounds optimistic and whom i to argue about jamie dimon especially about his business and what he's seeing i would just mention that we are three, four months into the worst economic crisis this country has seen in a generation so to me, i hear comments like that and it reminds me of things that subprime mortgagees are contained and you tell me how their models look with 10% unemployment for a sustained period of time and then i'll tell you what banks earnings qualities will go going forward. >> two weeks ago on monday i think it's the most important stock in the market and it went down from 80 to 90 and now it's back to 96 and wake me up if this is above 100 and it stays there and this thing pressing

back below the 80s in the next couple of months >> coming up, losing its crown and why they shorted the ultimate stay at home stock. the dow celebrated a birthday today and unlike the panel it hasn't aged well and we have ideas on how to freshen it up. stay with us "fast money" is back in two.

welcome back to "fast money," the streaming wars are once again, heating up hbo max joins the party tomorrow and a huge summer for the space and let's get to julia boorstin with the details julia? >> that's right. hbo max launches tomorrow with a deep library of moves, as well as six new original exclusive shows. though the service will be free for current hbo subscribers, it

will cost $15 a month which is $2 more than netflix's most popular plan and more than twice the cost of disney plus. i asked the chairman of entertainment and about the service's timing and price >> we're always going to be a little concerned and we didn't expect this pandemic to be hitting us at this moment in time, but we also really feel good about where hbo has been in this marketplace for so long at this price point and what we're really giving people is all of the hbo service, but twice the content with all this new additional content and so we feel good about the price point. >> greenblatt pointed out that there's more demand for content right now and the fax that hbo max is offering more content at the same price point as the current hbo service. despite production stoppages that their content pipeline is

in good shape until the fall parent company at&t shares did gain 3% today. they are down about 21% year to date melissa, back over to you. >> thank you, julia. julia boorstin one of our traders just shorted the ultimate stay at home play so tim, why are you shorting netflix? >> first of all, yeah. look at disney's sub so disney now in six to nine months has one-third of netflix subs and they're doing it at a price point that will be more competitive, but netflix is still a major cash burn story, but because of covid-19 and because of content that will be held back because of cost they will be north of a billion and my guess is that 2021 will probably be somewhere in between the two. i don't think you worry about it from a solvency perspective, but at some point this company needs to make money and the valuation just makes no sense.

i get the fact and reed hastings has been very outward about talking about the move from linear tv and has room for everybody. he's actually been somewhat almost supportive of the competitive environment and this is a case where netflix and the surge that it had around covid-19 was absolutely pulled forward and i get the daus were really impressive,but those third quarter comps on content and then some of those maus that were added become very, very difficult and to be clear to trade school as a short position, i don't think you would short netflix as an index hedge or the hedge of any kind and they need to be priced appropriately and being short on a position like this and having stops in there and this is a stock i feel comfortable being short and i don't believe it will act rationally and i don't believe that if you put a stock on a stock like this you can't have it tied too tight somewhere around 20, 25% i think you can put a leash on this

thing. >> karen, what do you think of tim's thesis >> i like the thesis can i ask a question >> sure. >> yes >> okay. so, tim, let's say there is a vaccine tomorrow does netflix go up or down >> down. do you want a fuller answer than that >> it really is a stay at home stock. guy, what are your thoughts on the short? >> this is where tapped out and it makes sense from that parameter and it is down 8% from the 458 level in a separate line so the momentum is behind him and the risk reward sets up better now than it has for a while and tim would agree that the thesis he brings forward has been in the stock for a while and it comes down to, i think, is the competition such that

their first mover, a huge lead that they have is that being whiltd away and i would still submit that it's netflix and everybody else is playing for second and third place >> tim, you want to quickly respond? >> i just want to quickly clarify, i didn't short the stock today. i didn't short it yesterday. i shorted it about a month ago and i'm flat to down small on the trade. to be clear, this is a stock that the argument here has been one that's been out there for a long time. netflix bulls are saying this is great. this is exactly what i heard two years ago and the stock went up although the stock for the most part until the surge had been sideways money and my view is that this has been a catalyst and i mean covid-19 to netflix and the competitive environment only gets worse and you can't tell me that netflix has the ability to raise it and that's part of the call >> quick, dan, would you be with timo his short >> yeah, i think with the good risk management and net ads were

declining in north america pre-pandemic and with this unemployment, how do you think it will look will it trend lower in 2021? >> coming up, homebuilders and what is behind the strong move higher should you close in on some of these names and cramer is talking about the ceos off intui and cortiva. much more fast money back in two.

welcome back to fast money good news on the housing front new home sales rose slightly last month analysts were expecting a 22% drop and that surprise recovery could be good news for toll brothers and the homebuilder reports after the bell and it could lay the foundation for big

gains ahead. mike khouw has the action. hi, mike. >> hi, melissa toll brothers traded four times the options market and right now it is implying some pretty big moves and right now implying an 8.5% after earnings and that's larger than the 6.4% that they averaged over the last eight quarters and i would point out that the stock has disappointed seven of those eight quarters and some of that activity that we were seeing today was optimistic and looking for some upside and one of the trades that we identified that was a good example of this was the september 33 calls and the supplier was paying $33 and it was a approximately $30 stock price right now and this bullish bet is betting that the stock will rise 20% or more by september expiration and that's about three and a half months from now >> thank you, mike for more options action watch the full show at 5:30 p.m. eastern time and we have a very special celebration on "fast money" tonight happy birthday to the dow jones

industrial average and can you guess how many candles were on this cake this year. stay tuned because the party continues next ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ that's why working together ist more important than ever. at&t is committed to keeping you connected. so you can keep your patients cared for. your customers served. your students inspired. and your employees closer than ever. our network is resilient. our people are strong.

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changed or does this index need a serious makeover they all know that we tend to gravitate towards the s&p 500 as opposed to the dow and for very good reasons >> we do, and the springsteen glory days reference is probably right for the dow. there are chemicals and a lot of stodgy old-world companies and a few new world and a lot of industrial stuff and if we're looking at the new economy things have totally changed and it's not entirely fair compared to the nasdaq 500 and relative to the s&p it's performed by 600 basis points this year and it continues to >> our gift to the dow on this 124th birthday, we have decided to give it a big fast money

fantasy mikeove fantasy makeover each trader has one that should be removed and the one that should replace it. guy, i will go to you to start us. >> understand the rules because i was paying attention earlier today, and i would suggest that in tim owe world, you don't need big-cap energy names and you have exxonmobil and put it in the defense company. you don't have any defense names, and boeing and you have new techs and in pure defense, take out exxon and lockheed martin and if you can get me a haircut in the middle ofthat >> your hair is pretty tight, guy. not too bad for pandemic standards. tim seymour? >> yeah. so i'll throw travelers out of the dow and the reason for that, the day that they're transforming themselves into the

fall of glass/steagall and all of that was the net 20 years and the income trends for insurance companies and not going to be very good and out with travellers and bring in paypal and this is a $180 billion company, and it's a merchant aggregator and it's effectively an online portal for a lot of small business and this is a company whose best trends were probably best trends and obviously some of it helps them and i love paypal here and absolutely a new economy stock >> karen, you're also going with new economy. cutting edge >> i am. well, so i would be taking out 3m, which had a tough 18, tough 19, tough 20 and we'll give him a pass on the tough 20 and i do like making masks and they're a good corporate citizen there isn't an automaker in there, so if you want to add one i think you actually have to go with tesla, and so -- i don't

know elon musk might even reject being included in the stodgy old dow jones industrial average, but that's the one that i would do if you're looking for a makeover to bring it into the modern era dan, what do you say >> yeah. i'm in the same camp and i would be booting out ibm and their revenues have been declining for the last three years and the great ceo and the revenues are growing 20% a year and that is the new economy and the new face of technology and i just want to see if guy can settle a bet between me and karen i'll bet that charles dow's favorite cake was carrot cake. we wanted to see if you could settle that for us because we know you were there at the start of the dow [ laughter ] >> it was a miserable carrot cake and thank you for that, dan. i appreciate that. u karen, you owe me ten bucks >>p next, we have the final trades

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time for the final trade let's go around the horn karen. >> yes i want to give a shout out to karen price in chicago she is a big fan of fast money and mad money. she watches them every day, and i'm a big fan of yours keep your spirits up, karen. thanks for watching and my final trade, if this recovery has legs, short tlt. >> tim >> check out that move in brazil today upon the ewz to play brazil if we get any reflation, brazil is the place and a lot of this will be currency and that's your friend take a look. >> dan >> yeah. retail we talked about some of the performance in these stocks. i would wait until the end of the week and get through some of these earnings and i think you

sell the xrt and sadly there will not be a back to school and it will be one of the worst christmases in decades >> guy >> i speak portuguese, mel, but i'll spare you up in portuguese is twitter, tr thanks fo my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate, teach context. call me 1-800-743-cnbc tweet me @jimcramer. what would this market look like if we had a coronavirus vaccine and everything went back to normal?