so far this week helping drive those gains, progress on reopening america from the lockdowns we have an update on theme parks, auto plants and casinos getting back to business one form or another. getting you ready for two big market events and ecb announcement have you watched the euro markets at all the latest jobless claims. "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and ars there are some red arrows. you have to look at what has been happening over the last week joe mentioned it is up 3.5% this week alone watch what has happened. the crazy whip saw market picking up again walking you through the dow. thank for peter for helping me out with this. the record high 25,551 on november 12. falling to the low on march 23, 18,591 yesterday, june 3, the dow up

41% back to 26,269 the same story with the s&p. looking at that, you will see it hit a record high 3,386 on february 19. fell on march 23 to 2,237. yesterday back to 3,122. it just shows you how rapidly these things have happened and how much ground has been made if you are looking at the nasdaq. only up 1.4% from the record close from february 20 treasury yields have picked up the 10-year yielding 0.746%. crude oil prices are down this morning. concerns that that opec plus meeting. that there will not be any cuts

extended a lot of that comes as you are watching "worldwide exchange." some of those have been about how iraq has been cheating through all of this. will the rest of the coalition be able to stick together. big question, wti is down 2% we are talking about $36.58 a barrel a long way from those numbers. we have other news out of china. aviation authority saying it will allow foreign airlines to increase flights starting on monday that announcement came about 12 hours after the trump announcement to suspend airlines to fly to the u.s. in an effort to get china to relax policies for u.s. airlines. allowing one international airline passenger flight a week.

china will test those passengers and allow airlines to expand those if passengers test negative for three consecutive weeks. another sign of -- i don't want to say full-on normal but as we try to move back to some type of normal >> how does that work? if passengers test negative for three weeks? that means you go in to quarantine three weeks before or they test you? >> no, no. i could be wrong i think we are talking generally meaning they are testing passengers in the macro contest -- >> after the fact? >> if over the next three weeks, they are able to do this in a collective way this seems to be working, they'll add more flights. i need to look more into it.

>> if the test goes well i get it >> even the antibody test does test you in 5, 10 minutes. two tests. there are two lines that could come up. you are watching it. >> like a pregnancy test >> i got neither >> now you know how women feel >> okay. those little lines okay i got that gm is getting back to business mary barra said the automaker expects north american vehicle production to return to near covid-19 levels by the end of june the company is continuing to ad shifts at north american plants this week. u.s. pick up plants are back to

normal at three shifts but one plant in mexico is still rating with one shift costco is out with new numbers net sales $12.55 billion in may. 7.5% innees from last year a bounce back as most americans remained under lockdown orders on line sales jumped 106%. same-store sales rose. >> a huge deal people were thinking costco was not going to be able to come back they've had limits of how many people were in the store they have to wear masks. that is compared to the decline of 3%. that is huge news and shuts downey doubters out there. delta airlines extends the

many easy you're of capping capacity at 60%. jet blue and others. united and americans put programs in place to notify travelers if their plane is full and allow them to switch with no fee. nevada is allowing some hotels and casinos social distancing, cleaning and hand washing stations. employees will be required to wear masks and guests required to do so gaming tables will include plexiglass shields a lot of questions on this front. vegas is a draw for conventions. if you are a hotel business, it is more than just the casino it is a question of when you it get enough people particularly when not a lot of flights going

back and forth >> a lot of chips and cards. >> people sitting next to you don't have to wear a mask? >> you can still smoke too that's what brian was saying i didn't know that >> like in europe. >> yeah. that's what i say when i get back here. you know, i took up smoking again. i was over in paris. i didn't smoke anymyself but i did take up smoking while i was there. >> second-hand smoke meantime, check this out universal orlando reopened theme parks to some annual pass holders and resort guests after being closed since midmarch. opening to the general public tomorrow visitors will have their temperature checked and won't be admitted if it is 100.4 or

higher parks are limiting capacity to ensure social distancing universal owned by comcast sea world, one week from today and disney world on june 11. the reopening of america continues. coming up, more on "squawk box" this morning. we'll talk to dr. scott gottlieb on a new study of a large second wave later this year that's next. social media versus president trump's snap chat saying it will stop promoting the president's account on its discover page more later this hour as well squawk returns in a moment

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beautiful live shot of the capitol this morning a new study is projecting potential for a bigger second wave joining us now, dr. scott

gottlieb cnbc contributor when it feels like the coast is clear, we have what feels like a reopening of america talking about some of these theme parks reopening in orlando. we are getting new reports of this i hate to say this if you have to handicap this situation, how do you handicap it >> i think there is a high likelihood this is coming back in the fall. whether or not a full-blown epidemic will depend on measures some of this is out of our control. if we are aggressive with tracking and tracing and screening in place and doing the right things, we can't mitigate that looking at coronavirus historically and pandemic's predicted it would come back in the fall but it is something we've known. >> do you think we have those

things in place? >> i don't -- >> we are hearing less about that >> not yet i don't think we have everything in place we'll have testing in place. i think we have a challenge still with testing sites moving to places where people are at risk at risk employees for medically and other disadvantaged people some tests are investing heavily in tracing, others aren't. what we'll lack in the fall is an awareness we'll lack a good central data capture tool to tell what counties are expanding infection so you can make closures and take mitigation steps rather than go to a stiem tannious

shutdowns like this spring >> do you get data i got 10 different states bus district of columbia where more than 70% of beds in icu are currently occupied pretty troubling that we are still there and a certain wave would play in with the flu and everything else. are you watching icu trends? is it troubling to you >> i saw that data i wouldn't overlook at that data icus typically run full. we should be looking at daily hospitalizations for covid-19. not daily new cases turned over.

we are testing more. we're probably diagnosing more new cases. they are going up. arizona hit 1000 hospitalizations florida turned over about 1,400 cases. we are seeing numbers go up in tennessee, texas, georgia, north carolina, minnesota where there was already an epidemic or outbreak under way multiple states. wisconsin and ohio as well we are hopeful we don't have a big surge in cases we'll have an expanding epidemic, albeit much more slowly we are heading into the fall pushing hard with the vaccines

you saw them pick five vaccines they are going to try to accelerate >> what did we decide now is the average incubation period. could be as long as 14 days. i'm trying to figure out when the demonstrations and the big crowds started a lot of people yesterday, i saw are wearing masks would you say it is 5 to 7 days and we are not seeing it yet? >> that's right. you have to wait two weeks to start seeing the up tick in infections you probably need to wait about a two-week cycle to see the impact of the early protests would be and the early gatherings and the context of

what has been going on >> talking about the white house announcement looking at these five companies moderna, the harvard companies and three big drug companies johnson and johnson and a third of the big companies what does this mean in terms of all the other companies out there trying to do a vaccine delivery does it make it much less likely that they are going to be able to come up with anything or does this mean this is the ones we are putting our best hopes behind how do you determine that announcement >> they are going to priorities clinical trial access these are large clinical trials. you are talking about trying to enroll 50 to 70,000 patients

they chose three viral vector v vaccines from merck, j&j and astrazeneca. and two mrna one from pfizer, which i'm on the board and moderna. i'm surprised sinofi and others weren't selected they chose very novel platforms. not to say it will be successful only one has been used before was the merck platform and that was for ebola. >> right just following on that, i'm looking at all these other

companies that have had their stocks run up. if you can't get prioritized as clinical trials, how much less likely does that mean you will be able to get vaccine to market quickly? >> i think it is an impediment clinical trials will be hard heading into the fall. it will be hard to enroll and where to enroll them you'll get patients who come in contact because we don't know where the outbreak will be locking up a lot of these clinical trial sites enrolling outside of these 50,000 or 70,000 assuming all of these will make it to phase three. not clear they all will making it that that will lock up a lot any other vaccine will have to look outside of the u.s. other companies won't have the capacity to do that or they'll

have to wait until this first wave of the trial network has run through. the protein vax, i singled them out. they appear to be pretty far along as well. i would have thought they would have been equal or close enough that they would have been included and include a prote protein-based result in this mix. a behavioral science question if two or three weeks from now, we find that we've dodged this meaning there is not a terrible spread as a function of these protests and people being in close context as they were

what do you think it will say about how they see this virus and the health experts making warnings about the fall. are you concerned about that >> i'm concerned about the risk that there might be spread about the protest. i'm not too concerned about the poll sicks i think there will be plenty of time to look back. we'll find we did a lot of things right and wrong that will be hard to tease out what the impact of these protests have been on the spread we are going into them on the rising spread. we will continue to see rising spread remember, a lot of these weren't just local individuals but from broad regions. they will say, well, we are not seeing spread in new york. we are seeing in new york and

new jersey we are seeing rising cases in a lot of cases i'm worried about the summer i don't think we'll see an epidemic in july and august but take on a lot of infection into the fall where we have a slow expansion over the summer. >> always a plooerz and privilege. we look forward to seeing you again tomorrow thank you. thank you, dr. gottlieb. some wall street firms taking a step we haven't seen paying new hires not to come to work. details next as we head to break, take a look at the biggest pre-market decliners. the index is down today. biggest decliner right now, co, wntydo 4.6%.

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welcome back now it is time for the executive edge

every core partners will pay bankers up to $25,000 to delay starting their new jobs. recent college graduates due to start this summer will get $15,000 to defer their start date to january or $25,000 if they wait until next summer. including the anticipated decline of deal making consulting firms mckensy and exensure are also delaying new hires. figuring out what kind of revenue they'll have in resources. >> i saw something that said, if you think our market is in inskplisable, do you know we are

lagging europe coming up, we'll hear more the ecb expected to announce new stimulus today take a look at the major european markets i didn't know that should have looked at that year to date. we head to break looking at yesterday's s&p 500 as business moves forward, we're all changing the way things get done. like how we redefine collaboration... how we come up with new ways to serve our customers... and deliver our products. but no matter how things change,

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good morning, u.s. equity futures down about 140 points or so after big gains monday, tuesday and wednesday. the dow up about 3.5%. the european central bank expected to increase the coronavirus asset program amid fears of falling inflation and contraction. the major indices recouped much of their losses. julianna tatelbaum with us good morning >> good morning. it has been a strong week for european equities. three weeks in a row of gains. we are looking today at stocks turning lower ahead of the ecb meeting today. the euro trading lower versus

the dollar after a strong run. economists are expecting central bank to expand and offering grim forecast and a new set of projection for upcoming quarters ecb may be able to deliver relative to expectations a driving expectation the german government has unveiled the stimulus package the fiscal side stepping up here the auto stocks stepping up today. the stimulus package doesn't include incentives for the cars and electric vehicles. that coming under a little pressure noted during the break versus the u.s. recently. you have seen a similar rotation taking money out of the market quality growth stocks and putting it into the lesser loved

process of the market value cyclical names on hold as investors await central bank >> thank you thank you for confirming that on the european markets becky. thank you, guys. the emerging signs of recovery across the globe may be creating areas of opportunity for investors. joining us now, director of global macro at fidelity investments. i know you've been looking at this a phrase overused sometimes. you think this is kind of a perfect storm for pushing markets higher there are a lot of things converging at the same time. what else are you looking at that makes you think you would be buying stocks here. >> we have a potent back drop, if you will, of the covid curve

flattening, the rate of change of economic activity is getting less bad cold comfort fobl the shocking numbers we have been looking at. that's what the market looks at. you look at earnings estimates they are starting to flatten out for about a 28% decline in the current year followed by recovery on top of that, you have the sentiment. the surveys have flipped $5 trillion in money market analysis and look at the rolling data hedge fund and indices. they are getting more negative the health set is sort of pressing their bets on the negative side. that's a squeeze you are seeing this at a time when the breath side, the internals are getting better and

better mentioning that europe is getting better the small caps valued. the banks are starting to participate. we preached a point where 92% of stocks were above their moving average. that was the breath thrust all sectors are in the green what you want to see in a new bull market. maybe too early to call it that. that persistent negative sentiment adds fuel to that fire. >> when you are measuring that sentiment, how much do you hear from your own investors at fidelity >> i don't know many people who are bullish. maybe they thought it was interesting at the bottom. manufacture us have looked at history and seen a retest usually happens. we did not get air retest in the

s&p. we did in the smaller markets. you have to look really hard to get that you get the typical fomo feeling, i've missed it. i think there is a lot of fighting the tape, if you will when it was just the faang stocks leading the charge, i think that was a good justification of that. what you want to see in the early cycle bull market. something that has only really happened in the last few weeks >> a lot of times stocks jump into your head and it is profound i've been viewing this whole thing as wow, i hope people didn't sell. i hope they held on. i've looked at is it on the flip

side you had a chance to buy stocks at the lowest point. instead of saying, yeah, at least i didn't sell. you had a chance to buy some of the greatest companies in the world at this ridiculously low -- maybe not valuation wise. but you look back and see i had a chance to buy this stock at x and that one at y and i didn't do it. that's what the market tends to do when you do get a sale or price cut, you are unable to pull the trigger to buy because you are so frightened. >> we say have a good plan going into this. a 60/40 index is about 2% from

the high set in february have a plan and don't be your own worst enemy by executing and sticking with that plan. it is hard all of your prime al instincts want to run away part of our job has been to make sure our investors understand if you do those things over the long run, you'll come out okay >> you weren't bullish i think about 40%. we hear long-term stock average is 7 to 8% and that will be better than anything else. how many years do you have to sit around if you miss 40, you are out of that, you just really cut yourself off at the knees for trying to build wealth >> we have to invest for

retirement the only way to do that is to compound returns for a long, long time. you are not going to find the bottom because they tend to be big vs then you miss out on the gains it is very hard to compound and get to that picture you want to be at. it is another good lesson to be on the right portfolio and stick with it and rebalance. a 60/40 will come back and you will have to participate with the upside >> it is good to see you we need you back to talk more about what people need to do next we appreciate your time. it is really good to have you here >> thank you andrew

okay a lot more on squawk ahead perhaps the sign of things to come small property owner suing a retailer for failing to pay rent >> arne sorenson with us next. a look at scenes this week as states reopen for business across america

welcome back watching u.s. equity futures that are down this morning indicated down by 150 points s&p futures indicated by 18. jobless claims numbers will hit at 8:30 a.m. eastern markets will watch that closely after the better than expected numbers we got from azp adp mall operating group simon is suing gap over failure to pay some towards rent. gap is simon's largest tenant. simon is the nation's largest mall operator and gap, its largest tenant this is a battle of two giants

gap has a market cap of $4.5 billion simon has a market cap of about $22.2 billion. we've been wondering who in the end will be the one who gets hit. is it the retailer with no business coming in but still has to pay for its costs that's why the banks have been under so much pressure you wonder where all of this gets worked out and where the pain is felt the most. we'll talk to retail industry veteran in the next hour he's the former ceo of j. crew he's a retailing legend and has been watching this space we'll talk about what he sees coming in this new retail world. joe? president trump versus social media, shapchat jumping

into the fray and today, casinos jumping. the fray >> announcer: don't forget to subscribe to our podcast look for us on apple podcasts or on your favorite podcast app and subscribe to squawk pod today. johnson & johnson scientists are working to accelerate development of a covid-19 vaccine, drawing on decades of experience responding to public health emergencies like ebola and hiv. for the life behind every mask, the clock never stops and neither do we.

snap chat will no longer promote the president's account under the discover account the decision in line with twitter's approach in the debate over political speech. facebook has taken no action at this point sara fisher, axios and media reporter, the first to have yesterday's snap chat news and vice president of equity research is here maybe we can figure out what to do with these stocks based on this we'll start with you sara. i guess i shouldn't have an opinion on this. i admire mark zuckerberg but i wonder how long he can hold out

from the pressure within his own company from woke employees about what they will say about him for not jumping on the bandwagon with his position >> reporter: it's going to be very hard. look, you have civil rights groups putting out statements regarding mark zuckerberg. now you see his rivals take action that he's uncomfortable taking what he needs to weigh is how does he compromise his long term vision for facebook which is being a platform for free speech and everyday people when his biggest rivals are taking the exact opposite action. to your point, joe, there are a lot of conservatives who are uncomfortable. we had people saying they were uncomfortable with what snap chat is doing, twitter is doing. it's going to be a long road ahead maintaining this position.

>> someone said alternate facts. it was very funny that they used that term, but i think about what president xi might say and then i think about pick your world leader, what they might say about something. then you've got president trump who we know says some stuff that, you know, i don't know, is mail voting absolutely free of fraud? do we know that for sure when adam shift says something, do we know for sure what he's -- when do we decide? don't we need to decide? do you want that guy at twitter seeing some of his other tweets earlier, do you want him deciding what i'm allowed to see? isn't this problematic >> reporter: i think that they're trying to take a middle of the road approach they're not taking down the accounts and they're not making the tweets entirely invisible or the posts or the accounts on snap chat entirely invisible what they're doing is saying, look, we're going to warn our users saying we personally as a company disagree with some of the content that they post

that's a subjective decision here's how i would urge you to think about it, joe. i don't think that some of the things that the president has tweeted have resulted in, you know, major, major escalations, but in other countries around the world where these platforms operate they have. think about how the military leaders in militia -- i'm sorry, myanmar systematically used facebook to instill genocide so when you see them taking action on president trump, think about it in the sense, too, that they're trying to make sure that they enforce all of their policies globally and don't neglect to enforce them just in the place where they're based. >> you're fair minded, sara. there's a lot of people that say trump is much worse than the people in myanmar but, you know, that's what i mean how do you -- it's the wild, wild west in social media. i don't know if we really want to start deciding who's crazier

than someone else. anyway, john, i mean, i would worry about maybe facebook stock because of this. i don't know what finally happens. it matters pr wise how the company handles it what do you do with the stock? >> yeah, well, the business -- i mean, the stock has -- there's a tremendous amount of operating leverage in that business and, you know, with covid-19 i think a lot of people sheltering at home, there's a lot of reasons why the fundamentals are actually looking really good over the next couple of years. but you're right i think you also have to weigh there's an election coming up so there might be a change of tide in terms of, you know, who gets favored in what. so are these guys having to play the election a little bit? or at least hedge their bets i definitely think that's probably something going on, but i think it also reflects their personalities, too you know, besides the business part of it

>> do you have a preference for the way some of these different companies are approaching things, john what would you do? >> i actually think that different ways of approaching it are -- it's kind of like a game -- sort of a game theory kind of thing. if facebook is going to censor, right, then maybe twitter goes a little more open, right? so there's a lot of -- there's a lot of games manship there's a lot of analysis about what the right strategy is, but at the end of the day mark zuckerberg detests elitism that's why he founded facebook, right? you saw the network effect, right? didn't get into a club at harvard so he wanted a platform where everybody could be friends, right i think there was some sort of righteous anger about that i think it's translated to some degree, the social elitism has translated to anti-political elitism. i think that's one way to play

it sort of one strategy and the users will be attracted to that. other users, right, will be more attracted to the snap chat or twitter approach. >> sara, i don't think i want to live in a world where politicians can't make their case in hyperbolic terms, you know what i mean i'm counting on that i wouldn't look forward to the election as much go ahead >> reporter: i think president trump feels the same way one of the things i always point to is when he first took office he did an interview with axios and he said, i don't want to regulate these companies because they allow me to reach my voters in an unfiltered way he doesn't trust that the media is going to do that for him. so i think political leaders have the same standpoint don't we have access to these platforms so we can talk to people in an unfiltered and unfettered way mark zuckerberg's statement is he called for the national guard

and some sort of force and that the public should be able to know about that. joe, i think this is a case-by-case situation where each platform is going to have to weigh whether or not there's harm when these politicians speak out or whether or not there's public interest. the problem here is it's a very slippery slope >> yeah. all right. john, thank you. we appreciate it sa sara, where's swn? >> he's still at axios. >> tell him i ask about him and that other guy, too. what's his name? mike allen >> that other guy? >> the best. >> no, i'm kidding >> it hasn't been that long since we see him. >> it used to be swanny was lynn swann. you know what i mean >> oh. >> i think it's still lynn swann. he's a close second. anyway okay when we come back, getting america back to work we've got the latest read from

our road back barometer after the break.

if you think about the last few months maybe it'll give us a new perspective. maybe we'll see things we've been missing. maybe it'll help us see just how connected we all are.

and maybe... just maybe, if we look at the big picture... it'll remind us just how amazing freedom really is. good morning, everybody.

stocks coming off their lowest win streak since february and the greatest 50-day rally in the history of the s&p 500 this morning investors are taking a pause we have more on the markets just minutes away checking november with marriott ceo around ceoarnie sorenson joins us plus, retail mickey drexler on the retail economy we'll find out the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at u.s. equity

futures. giving up a little bit of the gains we'vehad remarkably this week let's show you where we stand. dow looks like it will open down 126 points off s&p 500 looking to open 15 points down. the nasdaq looking to open off about 30 points. given where we've been, it's marginal becky? >> it is early in the morning but after the last three sessions of gains, stocks looking to extend their longest winning streak since february. investors are hoping some of that optimism is being reflected in the economy steve liesman is looking for green chutes in the retail data. what have you found? >> reporter: becky, our cnbc road back barometer had its best day since the crisis began with three measures that we follow all improving. let's go through the data here a 7% increase in store openings from the yelp store data that's the biggest increase we've seen 39 -- sorry, 49 states plus d.c.

that we measure, so 51 we measure and 49 of them all showed openings. new infections from covid had 68% of the very high level of the april average. that's the lowest we've seen and the apple mobility index where we put together searches for driving, for walking and for public transportation at the highest level at 82% of the january 13th level that is its best single day that we've been able to measure in our seven-day average. and they got a little help, by the way, from public transportation let's look at a national map of store reopenings what you see there is many, many states in the green in terms of the number of closures has begun to decline in fact, this began as a store closing index. now it's a store opening index we have just four areas, new york, nevada, illinois, and that still shows net closures on a

week-over-week basis illinois just barely closings. and all of them are down nevada set to change around this week one other piece of data i want to share with you, which is new data we have from j.p. morgan chase credit card spending we had a little bit of flattening out here. this measure spending may 26th, you can see people with the card spending is still down 33% and those not present, that's up 7.4% and that's showing people still robustly spending online rather than at stores before you get too excited, this is definitely all moving in the right direction. i just want to tell you how far we have to go. 144,000 stores in the yelp database are still closed that are expected to be open. there's still 20 thousand new cases though that's down from the average of april of 29,000 plus all three measures moving in the

right direction. the market, i'm assuming picking up on this not much impact we can see from the demonstrations in terms of renewed store closings though d.c. was up again in terms of closings moving in the right direction, becky, a long way to go. >> we do get some numbers later this morning the jobless claims, what are economists expecting from that weekly number? >> you know, another round of improvement. i guess i have to put that in quotes because we're still expecting between 1.5 and 2 million new jobless claims i think the whole jobless picture, becky, has turned around after the adp report. people are wondering how to process it the number was it was much lower, showed much fewer jobs loss than the consensus had expected and the question is whether or not that's going to be reflected tomorrow. >> steve, amazingly you really are right down the middle. you gave us a nevada and nevada.

>> i noticed that, for anyone who argues about that, there was one -- but i have a serious question for you, steve. i've been looking forward to being able to talk to you about this kevin hassett said i don't know if these numbers are right they might not even be right they may be corrected laters these are the adp numbers. 9 million estimated and lost 2 i mean, if they're wrong, that's a problem, steve, because we could see something today or we could see -- even worse, we could see something tomorrow if those numbers were in error, then they got us all excited and we could go right back to being unexcited today or tomorrow. do you know whether there's a chance those numbers were wrong? >> joe, you're a parent and i think you're a very good parent because i know your children, and one thing a good parent does is they don't ask their kids to do things they're not capable of at too early in an age

i say this long-winded answer by saying you can't ask the data for accuracy it's not able to provide. i for one applaud all of these companies, adp, j.p. morgan chase, yelp, tomtom and apple all providing public data which is helping us understand the economy. this is a public service they're doing. they do, as far as i can tell, the best they can. they tweet their models. it's a new age, joe, where we're trying to measure the economy with much more precision and much more frequency than we ever had. i can't tell you the amount of work i had to do to get this road back barometer ready so, yes, it's a problem if they're wrong. you only can take it as far -- i think investors are very shrewd in this regard what they probably have done here is they've increased the up side -- the risk of an up side surprise in this number but a smart investor is not going all in on the adp number

>> i'm not your parent i couldn't be your parent. maybe an uncle if you had a really young -- >> you have two great kids, joe. >> if you had a really young subbling i might be your uncle no, they are is there any other reason to exist, without kids? i shouldn't say that to people who don't have them. maybe they have pets it is special. for more on the economy, let's bring in chris bravard he's at ihs market where they can't spell for a damn but they are good at economics. tim lesco, partner at granite investment i want to start with you, chris, with that same point if you base everything on that adp report, would you change some of your projections or have you changed? you're not that bullish.

you're still worried about things economically, are you not? >> yeah, absolutely. we're looking for a deep hole in the second quarter even though we have green chutes in personal consumption expenditures, some of the things that are highlighting, we're looking at something like a 50% annualized decline in the second quarter. it's a deep hole with respect to the adp, i would take that with a very large grain of salt. how do they handle respondents it's very possible that they're counting them as having this no job losses and we know that the vls had to deal with this issue when they processed payrolls for april. >> you did raise your third quarter estimate though for growth we went from a small negative number a couple of months ago to about a 10% increase in the third quarter. that was at the same time that other data was indicating that the hole was going to be deeper.

the net net revised down the growth rate for 2020 >> none of that is very positive tim, since i don't have that much time, i want to get to -- you're still buying stocks that's why you're here to tell us, what would you add to your portfolio? you're looking at value and potential for reopening, good prices and good prospects? >> well, i think not to put a paw on t but most is in the rear view we're going to talk about what's going to come in the second quarter. we're going to look at what's going to come in the second quarter, third quarter and next year fewer people are flying, staying in hotels. kind of excited to hear what arnie sorenson has to say. stock prices are going to reflect what we have a year from now. not what we saw in the depths of april and may. >> give me a stock you added some to the list, right? >> we added disney as what we

would consider finding a great company at a pretty darn good price when they closed the parks investors were running for the hills and we were investing in it i say the same with southwest airlines. >> southwest oh, okay >> right we've got a fair amount of feedback people thought we were maybe off our rocker a little bit buying an airline when the thought was no one was ever going to fly again. people are flying again. airlines are adding flights to their sked dulsd and at some point planes are going to be full again. >> you added dover anybody ever going to ride an elevator again dover, ww granger. >> right >> that should be a country singer and lowe's, too, huh >> well, lowe's was fortunate. lowe's as a value stock was a turn around play as it was certainly benefitted from the tailwind of what we're calling nesting, for people beginning to spend money on their homes because they really had nothing else to spend money on the consumer's balance sheet,

although unemployment is fairly troubling, the consumer balance sheet has been pretty strong because we've been paying a lot for unemployment insurance and people have not been spending on restaurants and travel people have been saving money, now spending it on their homes. >> chris, what's the one thing that could happen, one data point that you'd say, wow, we were too negative or the one thing that could happen where you would say, whoa, we definitely are justified in being so worried what are we watching in the next couple of weeks? >> right the key thing is what are consumers doing? are they getting out, spending, resuming normal spending patterns again right now it's way too early to say. we're encouraged by, for example, the vehicle sales number we got yesterday. so it would suggest that people aren't completely spooked about the financial future that's really number one on the up side. on the down side we're watching the new cases and the sort of moving average of daily deaths and, you know, the recent data there is certainly not

encouraging and, you know, that's really over the next sort of medium term, the disease progression is going to be very, very important in conditioning how reticent consumers are to get back to their normal patterns. >> i don't see how you can make economic patterns with not knowing how the virus will be in the fall i don't know how you can say anything. >> that's why we process multiple scenarios. >> chris, thank you. tim lesco, southwest okay all right. do you like ww granger do you have best of, his greatest hits? do you -- never mind just kidding andrew okay a lot more on "squawk" ahead airlines adding flights and the stocks are seeing a pop. we're going to get an outlook and an update on that sector right after the break. arne sorenson is going to join us and discuss the reopening of america and give us some ideas of atwh he's seeing

now. "squawk box" returns right after this t now, is a time for action. so, for a second time we're giving members a credit on their auto insurance. because it's the right thing to do. we're also giving payment relief options to eligible members so they can take care of things like groceries before they worry about their insurance or credit card bills. right now is the time to take care of what matters most. like we've done together, so many times before. discover all the ways we're helping members at usaa.com/coronavirus

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get the connectivity your business needs. call today. comcast business. jetblue and united gaining 50%. not everyone is comfortable getting on a plane most say a covid-19 treatment

and vaccine will be needed in order to feel safe to fly. phil lebeau joins us with more that might be hard to change those things, phil a lot of people are going out all of a sudden. >> reporter: it's going to take some time to get people completely comfortable slowly you're starting to hear people booking flights, taking flights. if you take a look at the passenger screen data from the tsa. every day they come out and say here's how maeng pany passengere screened it may not look like it is moving higher, but it is gradually. what you're seeing is a decline of 86 to 88% compared to last year however, when you look at what's happening in june in terms of the airlines and the flights that they have scheduled, they are clearly adding more flights. in june american, delta, southwest, united, they're all up substantially united the one that's pulling back a little bit. still a little hesitant there. not an average you're looking at 27% increase in flights

this morning just within the last few minutes american airlines out with its july schedule we're not talking june, we're talking july it will be down 60%. that's not great but that's a big improvement from where they were in may when they were down 80%. united, they were out with their schedule announcement not too long ago it was down 90% in may in july it will be down 75%. you mentioned the states of play this gets to the heart of the issue in making passengers comfortable. right now the poll had a simple question is it sa is it safe to fly? 60% say it's safe. we're talking about the changes needed in america when it comes to race relations. we're talking to doug parker from american airlines you don't want to miss this conversation today at 11 a.m. eastern. guys, back to you. >> phil, thank you for that. by the way, doug parker did an

amazing thing. i had a conversation with a southwest flight attendant, i don't know if you saw this story. it will make you cry. >> that's what we're going to be talking to him about >> am' very much looking forward to hearing from him directly i actually sent doug a note because it really -- it moved me. meantime, our next guest is an airline analyst who recently took a round trip flight from jfk to cancun in order to see what changes have been made to airports, on planes, how guests are reacting steven trent is an airline analyst at citi. good morning, steven tell us about the experience what was the biggest surprise, biggest take away? >> yes, good morning thank you for having me. so i would say one of the biggest surprises is the level of comfort was not that horrible i was expecting to be in pain and have marks on my face for wearing a facemask for six hours, to have people maybe act

kind of paranoid if you get too close to them. there wasn't any of that and the feel in the airport was also relatively normal i would say both airports, jfk and cancun with the obsession of fewer people in the airport, walking through a thermal scanner in cancun on the way down and on the return trip, the airport experience and the on board experience were both more normal than i had anticipated >> okay. so the take away from that though as somebody who advises investors as to whether to buy these stocks was what? >> so i think the take away is people are still going to get to their desired destinations and the strictures that are in place are not enough to stop travel. so business travel coming back, that's going to take time.

certain certainly many people are not back in their offices but from a personal travel perspective there seems to be growing evidence as your previous guest highlighted that a growing number of people are getting more comfortable taking personal trips. whether that's a cause of religious or political beliefs or because maybe they have some antibody protection or have greater faith in having a contactless journey, i think it's a good signal that the airlines are sending that they want to make journeys as contactless as possible. i would say that's one of the reasons the tsa daily numbers are 300,000 again when they bottomed in mid april around 87,000 >> steven, if we are looking at consumers slowly starting to come back but business travel being off a long way, just break down what the profitability for each of those classes is for the

airlines i thought business travelers were where they make most of their money. >> yeah, sure. absolutely business travel, whether it's business travel in the business class cabin or it's a business traveler on a fully flexible coach ticket, those are, indeed, much stronger price points so when we think about the cadence of the recovery, it's our view that personal travel comes back first so this will potentially put some pressure on passenger yields, but at some point later this year, perhaps early next year as business travel starts to spool up again and you have underlying non-business travel demand starting to exceed lower rebased capacity, that is, indeed, a place where the group can start to test higher fares now from a profitability

perspective, certainly some of that is going to take a while to come back because because travelers are a big force. >> but, steven, let me ask you this can you take either bankruptcy or additional bailouts, government bailouts off the table for all of the major airlines at this point in your mind >> sure. so there's been a lot of speculation. you had an oem of -- a ceo with a big oem made comments about bankruptcy and got responses from the group when we think about cash burn and cash burn longevity across the group at this point in time, it looks like most everybody has enough liquidity to get through the rest of this year. what does that mean when we get to the end of september when the payroll support program strictures on involuntary

furloughs and could we see more furloughs? i think that's quite possible. at this juncture though thanks to the u.s. government's quick move in helping this vital group, you know, we don't forecast a bankruptcy event at this juncture. >> and do you think there will have to be additional private money and will there be private money for loans and other things if they need it come this fall or come next winter? >> yeah. so some of that stuff could get harder to come by. certainly at the moment if one looks at unencumbered assets which the group could try to monetize, certainly i would think under this climate aircraft residuals are probably not in a great spot. so in terms of what else they could do, i would say, yes, there are other avenues aside from turning to the federal government one thing, for example, that hasn't really seemed to be

explored very much are these credit card programs and these loyalty programs so if you look at past down cycles there have been groups that have gone out there and monetized or at least partially monetized these loyalty programs, credit card programs so that's one avenue certainly. >> that's an interesting one steven, thank you for joining us it was fascinating to hear about your journey and hope to talk to you again soon thanks >> pleasure. >> joe coming up, closing the racial divide. a closer look at a nonprofit that corporate america is embracing. we'll learn more about it. and then marriott ceo arne sorenson joins us. "squawk box" coming right back a hundred dollars. i had good health insurance. why isn't this covered? well, then they started getting bigger. eight-hundred dollars. eighteen hundred dollars. i saved for this. but not that much. i'm glad i had aflac.

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welcome back, everybody. monday on "squawk box" mierkerco ken frazier talked about year of >> there are 5 million inner city and other african-american kids who want access to the economy. they want to be participants they want to be citizens they want to be consumers. what they lack is the education, they lack the training and there is a program called year up. >> cnbc senior personal finance correspondent cheryl epperson talks about how this program bridges the gap between talent and opportunity. sharon, good morning >> reporter: good morning, becky. brandon jordan was a high school dropout. once homeless and he finished

his ged and was working at a panera restaurant when we met him four years ago he was then attending a year up seminar in atlanta that program offers low income young adults six months of intensive job training, a six-month corporate internship at major companies in informational technology, financial operations, project management and other fields. now year up has trained more than 30,000, mostly black and brown students, since it began 20 years ago we caught up with brandon jordan again yesterday and he's now a software engineer doing cost estimation and working on a project for the department of defense. he said he always had an avid interest in i.t. but he wasn't getting anywhere on his own. >> i put my resume out on career builder. i put my resume out on different websites never got a call back. never got an email

i just kept doing it never got anything in response but when i was at those networking sessions at year up i was able to directly integrate with the people that i couldn't integrate with before. those people saw the talent that i had and they were able to hire me on from those networking sessions >> jordan and his wife, another year up graduate, are now homeowners and they're expecting their first child any day. he says that without the experience at year up, he would not have the opportunities that he has today and perhaps he may still be working at that panera restaurant becky, i need to add that year up graduates, their average starting salary is $42,000 a year >> wow how many people have gone through the year up program? >> 30,000. 5,000 expected today -- this year i should say. >> that's great.

>> we're talking about 27 cities, we're talking about major corporations that are partners, like bank of america, like merck, like facebook. so it's a very widespread program, but there's still pockets of this country where they're not there and many areas in the midwest are still lacking a program like year up there have been a lot of statistics and reports about work force programs and how they work and what they do to really raise earnings year up is at the forefront of many of the studies that have been done on this. >> that's great to see success stories like that. sharon, thank you very much. good talking to you. >> reporter: sure. up next, marriott's ceo arne sorenson of marriott will be our guest. later, the changing landscape of retail we'll speak to retail guru mickey drexler the founder of drexler ventures. futures this morning under a little bit of pressure off the lows the dow still indicated down 115

points s&p future down 15 nasdaq off by 35 "squawk box" will be rightac bk. need better sleep? try nature's bounty sleep3, a unique tri-layer supplement that calms you, helps you fall asleep faster and stay asleep longer great sleep comes naturally with sleep3. only from nature's bounty.

welcome back, everybody. marriott ceo arne sorenson addressing the recent events saying for many years i've tried to use my perch at marriott to advocate for opportunity for all regardless of race, gender, nationality or any other point of human difference. each person deserves to be

recognized for who we are and respected for both our common humanity and the distinct qualities that make us unique. joining us is arne sorenson. great to see you thanks for being with us today. >> thank you, becky. great tosee you, too. >> i want to set this against the proper backdrop. obviously the last several months have been difficult for everybody in the travel and leisure industry you are a global industry. you have 7,000 properties in 131 countries. you've been watching the arc of this you've had to close properties, furlough employees where are we right now how many of your properties are still shuttered? how many have you been able to furlough and bring back? >> lots of questions there the impact of covid-19 has been profound on our business we've seen by revenue sales drop

90% globally first in china and then moving around the world as we got into march. at our low point we had about 2,000 of 7500 hotels closed around the world we've probably reopened 3 to 400 of those i think when we look at even in the united states we see the early signs of recovery although we've gone from something like minus 90% revenue to something like minus 0% revenue. while that in percentage terms if you think about it from the bottom is up 100%, it is still a long, long road and we suspect it's going to be a slow climb back to the levels we had in 2019. >> that sets the backdrop for what a difficult several months it's been already and how much you have on your plate, how much your employees are kind of watching this and not knowing what's happening either. then you have the civil unrest and the riots that have taken

place and that adds to it. as a leader, what did this mean? what are you able to do? what are you hearing from your employee base? >> this is the latest reminder in the frustratingly long challenge on criminal justice, particularly for blacks in urban cities in the united states where there is unfairness that is profound and i suppose the only thing that is positive about this is the availability of cell phones and the fact that we can see the outrageous behavior that obviously killed george floyd in minneapolis allows us i think sometimes to put aside the search for ambiguity and instead say this is profoundly unaccept abable ad start to turn the corner and

say, what is it we can do about it what i blogged about this weekend was quite personal saturday morning i had this on my mind as everybody did this was something we should communicate about. i'm obviously not a black leader in the business community in the united states, but we have a very diverse work group and i wanted to communicate with them. i think the more i think about them, it is not a question of what we at marriott do which is the focus of my blog but to recognize that what any individual company can do is simply not enough. we've got to find a way to make dramatically more progress in this space than any single company can do >> what does that translate into in real terms, arne? >> the conversations are underway in a number of different organizations so the vrt, for example, is talking about this real time as we speak. i think many of us are using our

networks of folks both inside and outside our companies to talk about places we can make a difference i think each of us must do what we can with our work forces and partnerships in the community where we do business i think we can band together throughout the vrt and work on criminal justice issues. we can advocate policies around criminal justice, around educational opportunity, around access to health care, around access to financial resources. these are four big areas that i think collectively we can push for not just what can we do as companies but what can we implement in the policy space to hopefully put this outrageous behavior behind us >> you say that these are real time conversations that are happening with you and your peers at the business

roundtable how quickly do you think this can translate into action? we had randall stevenson on this week and he said that, look, when any of these big companies put their mind to it, they can have a significant amount of say in policy in washington and that we've seen it happen time and time again for issues that are near and dear to any of these individual companies hearts or that make a real difference for their business do you think it is something where this is a moment that all of these companies are going to stick with this and say this is an agenda that has to be carried out? >> i do. and, again, by suggesting for a second that brt ought to ban together and use its force together, i'm not trying to excuse the conduct that any individual will do we will continue to be very active in this space as marriott, but i think collectively our voice will be that much louder and i think the brt and other

organizations will move very quickly and will not let up on this i think our employee bases demand it. i think society demands it i think fundamental aspects of fairness and the importance of opportunity demands it and i think as a consequence this event, i don't know whether you had a chance to see president obama late yesterday afternoon, but one of the things that i found so encouraging was to hear his hopefulness and we need that hopefulness. we need to take the outrage and the anger but we need to marry it with hopefulness and say, okay, we can do this let's marshall our resources and voices to help >> arne, let me ask you, it's a question i've raised on this program the past several days. do you think the brt ultimately if that's how this is going to work will and should advocate on

these issues but on behalf of certain politicians that are for the policies that you are advocating for the reason i ask that, i'm going to try to ask this in an apolitical way the same people who were helpful in terms of lowering corporate taxes in america are absolutely against things like affordable health care act which, of course, helps the people in the lowest levels and often -- at the lowest levels in our economy and often people who are black and brown. >> yeah. so let me i guess answer it this way. i'm obviously not a spokesperson for the business roundtable. i think the business roundtable will come out quite soon and talk about work that will be done in this space i do chair the business roundtable's task force on health care. i'm quite convinced based on the work we've done before that the

business roundtable will continue to speak out in favor of access for all-americans to health care. and that obviously gets wrapped into the affordable care act or obamacare and there are different political voices at times which are either using that as a symbol to attack or a symbol to defend let's stay away from this most superficial symbolism of this and go to the most important fundamental aspect of this that is that everybody in the united states deserves access to health care, period. and the business roundtable members overwhelmingly agree for that and will advocate for it. >> hey, ararne, we really appreciate your time i know you're following up on that and the coronavirus response from the business roundtable we'll have you back to talk about all of it. thank you for your time today. it's good to see you. >> you bet good to see you both

thank you. when we come back, the european central bank's decision on interest rates and a possible announcement of new stimulus measures here's a look at european markets now. down by half a percent both in france and germany the seft in london down by 1/3 of a percent

all right. welcome back, everybody. watching what's been happening with the markets this morning, the ecb just coming out with this decision leaving rates unchanged. not a huge surprise there. there are obviously a lot of other questions about what they might be doing in terms of additional stimulus they will be providing. we will be hearing from christine lee guard thagarde th.

you can see markets in germany and across the board in europe have been weaker as they have been in the united states. the dow is down. the weakest levels of the morning down by 75points andrew >> coming up when we return, retail icon mixy drexler on the changing landscape we'll talk to him after the break. later, the future of las vegas as the casinos reopen. today stocks and trends investors need to watch as america reopens. quk x"etns ves forward, we're all changing the way things get done. like how we redefine collaboration... how we come up with new ways to serve our customers... and deliver our products. but no matter how things change, one thing never will - you can rely on the people and the network of at&t...

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welcome back, everybody. we've told you the ecb just left rates unchanged. a lot more in this report. let's get over to steve liesman. steve? >> reporter: becky, thank you. yes, the european central bank extending its pandemic emergency purchase program beyond what the market expected. upping it by 600 billion euros to 1.35 trillion the out sized estimates i saw were around $1 trillion. now it's 1.35 trillion euros which is $1.5 trillion and also extending the time for the purchase program through the end

of june 2021 this is a major move in the purchase program and purchasing assets to address the pandemic >> all right steve. thank you. >> andrew? >> thanks for that. meantime the retail industry has been struggling as we all know it was one of the hardest hit when the shutdown began. joining us is the man who redefined it retail giant mickey drexler. it is great to see you i don't even know where to begin. let me try this. which is if you were running the gap today, frankly, if you were running one of the big department stores today, do you think it's fixable what would you do? >> probably one of the most difficult challenges i think gap is different than the big department stores. in business life i never wanted

to sell anything -- big department store today, i'm not sure, i wouldn't want to run one. i don't think i would be very good at it gap is another story near and dear to my heart. been out 20 years, but if i were running it, i would -- first of all, the storish issue -- i'm going to give a simple answer, close tons of tores. put together an incredibly creative design and marketing team and live and breathe the business and have wonderful goods and do what i do for a living, which is have goods that only we sell and to have it p

emotional, cool and have a need for those goods. that's a huge undertaking. >> het me ask you this from a policy perspective there's a lot of ppp loans and other loan programs that have gone out to all sorts of industries is there anything from the policy perspective given the head winds that were against this industry long before covid but how we get out of this, because the implications and ramifications are huge it hits real estate. it hits employment it hits so many different parts of our economy >> i think that this was coming. this -- the coronavirus i think just hastend dramatically.

i can remember 20 years ago or more seeing so many retailers selling the same clothes we don't need so much inventory. we don't need so much choice the trend over the last 20 plus has been coming this way this forced a very quick change, but it was in the air. if you looked at the history of business, where could you not buy certain things i always would ask if so and so had a store, how would i live? would it be okay would it not be okay if i look at what there is today, i could pretty much buy 80 or 90% of what i might want to buy in almost every store around >> i think we're -- >> can't control inventory or

your product -- >> mickey, we're losing sound. i'm going to ask you one more question hopefully we can get the connection a little bit better really for investors out there now, you're in the investment business now because you've invested in a number of retailers. in the public markets is there a retailer beyond the obvious, amazon and walmart that are clearly going to be the winners, is there anyone else i think long term may not look like winners now but will be winners in the future? >> the only one i'm really invested in now is warby parker and i think they're very big winners in the future. >> mickey drexler, we appreciate your time and perspective as always i apologize for our technical glitches this morning. this is the travails of trying

to do this. >> dow is down 20. coming up, not one but two former council of economic advisers on the reopening of america and the jobs picture we'll hear from jason furn man and then later glenn hubbard his mother would be mother hubbard, i think i'll have to ask him anyway, the futures are only down -- now down 21. we'll be right back.

good morning can the rally roll on? the dow has seen three straight days of gains. futures are pointing lower this

morning. however, we've hopped in just the last few minutes on expanded stimulus from the european central bank live update is straight ahead. high stakes reopening in las vegas. casinos set to open their doors today for the first time since march. we'll bring you a live report ahead of the first bets being placed the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin the ecb has extended pandemic purchases, the program, to at least june of 2021 that may be a little bit more than we thought. that's what we're going to talk

with steve liesman because the market was down over 100 points five minutes ago it's actually positive it has turned down again, it is down 30. steve liesman is back with us with a look at what's moving on that news. steve? >> reporter: yeah, joe, the ecb rocking the world this morning and before i tell you what happened, i want to tell you what i think is the significance of this. if you remember back to the financial crisis back in '08-'09, the ecb lagged and lagged and dragged its feet. it tried to do austerity in the middle of this it raised interest rates it was like really late to the party of stimulating the economy. this time the ecb surprising to the up side and you have the dollar weaker. you had a turn around in u.s. futures. take a look at what happened with italian bonds they weren't expecting this. what they did is they increased the pandemic emergency purchase program by 600 billion euros from -- from 750 billion euros to 1.35 trillion

that was more than most expected you have this big outsized move in several bond markets in europe i have not seen yet any particular reaction in european stock markets but our u.s. market seems to have reacted and the idea, joe, the idea that we're going to have europe and the u.s. federal reserve acting aggressively here is something that i think creates a different possible outcome for this economic downturn compared to what we had the last time around >> steve, thanks for that. town about 24 right now, becky >> a big turn. we were watching those european markets in the red all morning before this, but we are starting to watch the economy open up around the globe and there is an important milestone in the road to reopening the american economy today. gambling and crowds are expected to return to the las vegas strip today. things will be a little more than different contessa brewer has been monitoring all of this

she joins us with the details on this now contessa, good morning >> reporter: oh, becky, it is back las vegas is back. we saw just after midnight a couple casinos reopen in downtown vegas the d and golden gate. bellagio is breaking out a highly sanitized version of a red carpet for guests today. and they will have masks for any guest whose will wear them las vegas ready for a brego aftr weeks of shutdown. that was not enough to discourage visitors. vegas opens, they come the head of the visitors and convention authority says las vegas is 20% booked in spite of many properties remaining closed >> the response over the last five to seven days has caused some of the properties to speed up the openings so more properties are opening now than we had expected.

>> most of the visitors booked are coming from driving destinations as expected but mccaren airport said they are seeing an increase between 2,000 and 6,000 plane seats as compared to mid may. that tells you that the airlines are expecting increased demand for flights into las vegas, becky. >> contessa, so much of las vegas is not just those who are going for gambling or the shows. so much has been a convention center business, too what are you seeing in terms of those getting back up and running and how much the las vegas economy depends on that? >> reporter: it's a great question, becky. steve hill told me last night that this is the strongest book of convention business that las vegas has ever had starting for 12 months right now. they're hoping to start bringing back some of that group business in august. the big news is ces, the

consumer electronics show has confirmed its january show will go on as planned that's one of the biggest conventions that las vegas hosts. >> i don't know, contessa. conventions in vegas has trouble written all over it. let's not talk about it. i've seen the movies "hangover," just the whole idea, and especially after all these people have been locked up for three months >> you raise an interesting point. they're doing a lot of work on how to offer conventions, plexiglass around booths, space between aisles there's a lot of effort put into how you do this. >> you gave me the totally straight answer. you got it back on track where

it should be. >> i'm he professional. >> you are you are. you are. anyway, for more on the positive signs we should be looking for to signal the economy getting back to normal, joined by jason furman, former economic council of -- wrote that wrong and chairman at harvard's kennedy school i called him furman. how are you? >> great great to be here. >> i've got to tell you, i thought about you with that adp report it was like sometimes you're not completely partially right sometimes you're partially right. this time were you not right when you said disaster v did not the adp number give you some confidence of that piece you wrote about a week ago >> look, i think the worst of the economy was in the month of april. the worst for labor markets

probably will be the month of may. expect us to get another negative number tomorrow then we'll see the first part of the recovery will be fast. maybe falling 1 percentage point, maybe more than that. the second part will be harder when the unemployment starts falling by 1 percentage point a year i expect us to see some very good numbers over the next couple of months and still expect us to be in a very deep hole even with all of those numbers. >> you point out that some of the easy lifting, if anything is easy, some people will come back then it gets tougher so we'll see what looks like good numbers only to be followed by what looks like maybe not so good numbers i'm worried about where you are. are you able to get out of

there? are you okay >> i got a 3 out of 10 on rim rater for being in a hostage situation. the alternative is you can see my three children running around i'm trying to be safe from them. >> you're safe from everything i think. wow. that is called staying in lace you saw what the ecb did, shock and awe. we're not bashful here you want the states to get help. do you think that's the one thing we need to do? >> we have protected household balance sheets disposable personal income up in april. likely up for the quarter as a whole. the balance sheets we haven't protected are for states and localities they're going to do another round of economic contraction.

no fault of their own. they balance budget requirements giving them money is one of the most effective things we can do macro economically that we haven't already done. >> also at the time that you wrote that piece you said it could be a democrat's nightmare that the economy recovers before the election do you think this makes you as someone who probably leans that way, do you think you're less worried that it's going to be a nightmare scenario for democrats? >> joe, i'm a real believer in financial markets. i think they always get it right. joe biden's probability has gone up from 43% to 54% on predicted in the last three days seriously, i think the events we're seeing now are tragic and terrible for our country >> right >> i do think the president has not handled them very well

i think that perception is shared by a lot of people. ultimately on the economic side what should matter isn't the -- how many jobs are lost, how many jobs are gained. should be looking at the economic plans and asking going forward which plans do we think would be better for people in america. >> i watched that site too but i've got another favorite now that has a chart, jason. it's an rcp composite average of seven different betting sites. i think out of the 7, 7 for 7 were for trump two weeks ago it's a 3%. at the bottom it shows a crossover. poll numbers, they kind of let us down last time. >> poll numbers overreact and

seems like it doesn't change the long term. i think those are quite reliable economists have studied them for sporting events. they're nearly perfect predictors of the probability that sports teams will win. >> there's a lot of things rubber actually meeting the road, put your money where your -- things like that put your money where your -- anybody can say anything on a cell phone when they get a pulse from someone if you are willing to lay down what you've worked for, maybe it's nor reliable. >> look at all of the people predicting a debt crisis and interest rates rising. i don't see people betting their money on that proposition, one reason i think we do have a fiscal space to do what we need to to deal with this crisis. >> what if we don't do the help for the states do you think that that would be a big negative for gdp and everything else? and emerging quickly from this morass >> i studied what happened in

recovery from the financial crisis last time around and the state and local cutbacks took away about .6 of a percentage point per year from the growth rate over a five-year period of ti time this time it would be more severe because the hit to their budget is even more severe this time than it was during the financial crisis and i think it's not just about gdp. it's schools in ohio are trying to figure out how to make themselves safer in the face of coronavirus, do more social distancing at the same time that the governor's proposed a $300 million budget cut in the state of ohio. that's not an easy thing to deal with that's not conducive to our children's education >> as far as reopening efforts, you look around, is harvard, do you know yet, whether it's

online or campus classes yet have they decided? >> a lot of our graduate schools have decided they're going to be online the college has not yet made a decision. >> okay. i was thinking alice in wonderland where people get small, but someone said that is the shrinking hallway from charlie and the chocolate factory. we could not get a shot of that because we're using the computer it really kind of looks like when you walk in there, do you say, woo, i'm getting smaller? does it feel weird you're okay, right >> i'm okay. you know, tomorrow morning i'll be on your air again so maybe i'll try to find another location just for you. >> i think kids are cute and i haven't met your kids, we might rather see them than -- i feel, i don't know, it's like -- it's oppressive i don't know maybe -- >> i was trying not to have you distracted from all the wonderful things i was saying by trying to figure out what books i had in the background.

>> i told you, i listen very closely. i'm glad to see you today. if you are on again -- you probably will be on for the jobs report are you on tomorrow? >> they told me i was. it's possible something i said will get me thrown off. >> a scary -- i'm not going to say anything else about it anyway, thank you, jason we appreciate it it's fine. just want to hear you. doesn't matter where you are andrew coming up when we return, we're going to bring you the technology names you need to be watching for your portfolio. the nasdaq less than 2% from the highs. tech is one that can't be stopped. check out the names leading dow futures lower this morning "squawk" returns right after this

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welcome back to "squawk box" everybody. we've been watching the futures. we had been down 200 points when the morning started. we made a lot of progress. picking up a lot of that after the ecb said it would leave rates steady but would be continuing some of its purchases all the way through june of next year dow futures down by 63 points. in deal news, daily favor is reporting that charles schwab has received antitrust approval from the doj of t.d. ameritrade. david joins us on the news line. good morning. >> reporter: hey, becky. this is a deal that you broke, if i recall, back in november. there have been some questions here in terms of concentration of registered investment advisers given schwab's

dominance in that area and with the ameritrade significant share of that group, but doj apparently in its investigation according to the source did not see any sort of a violation there so they have given the go ahead. remember, they don't put a press release out, they simply take no action but i can't tell you that of course according to sources it has been approved so this deal is well on its way to closing fairly soon. >> hey, david, watching both those stocks this morning, they're both trading higher as you're reporting this. ameritrade up by 3%. schwab up by 1.5%. what happens next? what are the next steps we should be watching for how long do you think it will be before these two are tied up, t.d. ameritrade up more than 4%. >> closing is close. i am not clear what their expectations are obviously antitrust hurdle in a deal like this they did get a second request which is typical for a deal of

this size. one of the largest since 2019. this was sort of seen as a key would there be some conditions would there be something they had to do in terms of divestitures in that ria business that is not the case they're both able to go forward with no real conditions. and expectations that they'll be able to close quite soon, although i don't have a specific on it. perhaps "squawk on the street" will have a little bit more for me >> and, david, just in terms of what's happened to that business in the last few months, i mean, we've all kind of watched as rob ly inhood ran into troubles any ways this industry has changed since this deal was announced? >> i mean, obviously volumes have gotten large. volatility and there were concerns as well but the overriding question in terms of consolidation in the

face of 0% commissions and trading for free, something you reported on a great deal when you were doing this story as well continues to be the case as well one certainly expects that they're not anything that's changed in terms of strategic rationale. >> david faber reporting this breaking news that the department of justice is approving charles schwab, that's according to david's sources it is moving both of those stocks last we looked td ameritrade up 4% charles schwab up by 1.5%. we will be listening for "squawk on the street" with more details on that too. great. meantime, despite the extreme volatility of the past few months, the nasdaq is up nearly 8% in 2020 it's also only 2% off its all-time highs joining us for what's working in

tech, jean muenster of loup ventures and mike santoli is with us also this morning. let me start with you. i mean, there's a view among some that there's a lot more room to run and there's a view among others that, you know, we've been on a run and to the extent that you're going to bet on the reopening of america, there may be a great rotation that's about to take place what do you think? >> i think the past that's worked in tech won't work in the future i want to think about three different pockets here the first pocket is the group that has a clear advantage and a clear tailwind that trades at high valuations. i don't know if those are going to continue. those would be zoom, for example, huge user growth from 10 million per day to 300 million but a high valuation peloton, amazon, all of those great secular trends behind it i would consider that an

appreciated group. then there's the even over appreciated more, companies like facebook, netflix. these are medicating stay at home, they don't really have a clear tailwind then there's the question to your answer of which tech companies? clearly tech is going to have an advantage longer term. which of the companies are going to have the sustained tailwind that have not been largely identified by the market i think one is apple even though it is at or near its all-time high it's a massive opportunity around wellness, 5g and services separately, a company that i own around zillow and how it is transforming real estate here's a fun fact for the day. zillow monthly users, unique users, is 200 million. that compares to facebook in the u.s. at about 220 million. massive amount of adoption people are going to be moving, shifting from urban areas to more suburban areas and i think that zillow's going to be a

beneficiary of that. that's how i think there is massive performance. you have to be selective >> gene, before i go to mike, let me put a fine point on this though on the stocks that you talked about being appreciated or quote, unquote over appreciated, are you suggesting investors get out of those stocks because you think that they're over valued at this point? maybe if this is a trading story or long term or are you saying that stay in those stocks but they're just not going to run the same way that some of these others might >> more the latter i think that those top three, if you think of zoom, for example, peloton, amazon, those are high valuations my experience is that not owning stocks because of valuations that have huge secular tailwinds, that's not the right decision companies like netflix and facebook which i think are not fundamentally changing their business, they're still streaming in an advertising business, those are ones i would be more cautious on.

then of course apple and the one that i own, zillow, i think those are ones that are under appreciated. >> and, mike, speak to just what gene had to say but also to the extent you talk to traders who are thinking about rebalancing their portfolio. there is a sense that people might be moving from one -- you know, from these high flying tech stocks to the broader markets, if you will. >> reporter: yeah, that's been the expectation, andrew. it's very logical to think that might happen it hasn't been a rotation. some gene mentioned are into something else it was in the last few weeks it seems as if investors in general felt kind of under invested if this market was going to carry higher in order to get invested just simply bought more, turned cash into some of the more cyclical stocks that you talked about if you are a relative performance player, maybe it does make sense to say the banks

have further to catch up or retailers or travel stocks off the bottom of march 23rd, banks and small caps have fully kept pace. in fact, beaten most sectors of tech tech didn't come down as much. i don't know that it has to be really one of these zero sum games, one has to lose for the other to win i do think something like a zoom or a peloton where you have to ask the question at some point, how much of their likely addressable market did they get up front now because of the stay at home dynamics that maybe down the road it's going to make comparisons pretty tough >> gene, you mentioned facebook. where are you on alphabet? given its exposure to advertising for the larger economy. >> yeah. i think -- i always think of google as the oxygen of the internet unfortunately that oxygen is going to be under pressure, i think regulatory pressure. this is a company that i don't have a clear opinion i think that it could go either way. i feel strongly that google has

other bets that ultimately could catapult them beyond that. it's going to leave with one key thought. which companies are changing our lives? a lot of them are capitalizing on existing trends that's where google becomes an x factor with autonomy, waymo. those are the true value of where goiogle is going to be in the future. >> thank you >> look forward to seeing both of you very soon joe? coming up, initial jobless claims the number expected to come down again, but still reach nearly 2 million for last week. we're going to get that data at 8:30 down 66 on the futures remember what happened with that adp number i don't know what happens today. the claims number which normally not important but today could be

pretty interesting i look forward to it take a look at the shares of gap and simon property group the real deal says simon is suing the clothing retailer over more than $60 million in unpaid rent all stemming from coronavirus closures stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

still to come, first time unemployment claims. the latest trade deficit data. an update on productivity and more instant analysis is next stay tuned, we'll be right back. some companies still have hr stuck between employees and their data.

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welcome back to "squawk box. rick santelli with lots of breaking news. let's start out with trade balance for april. it deteriorated. we were expecting a number around 49. we ended up with minus 49.4, but

the deterioration that follows minus 44.4 so basically we added another 5 billion to the deficit when i look at productivity, first quarterfinal number improved rather dramatically, actually from minus 2.5, now it goes in the book books at minus 9/10 of 1% it's a better number than 2 minus 2.5. makes sense considering less productivity on reopening especially in the rear-view mirror we know that story the big money number initial jobless claims, 1.877 million. 1.877 million. this follows 2.126 million and just to put a face on this, on initial claims the high water mark, of course, was 6,876,000 and that was the third week in

march. definitely we are seeing as we're reopening, the ranks are going down of those applying for initial claims this number was actually largely expected in this area, this zip code now on continuing claims, 21,487,000 21.487 million the high water mark here was two weeks ago at 24.912 million. last week was revised lower from 2.10 to 2 -- i'm sorry from 21.05 million to 20.838 million. there's a lot of decimals, a lot of zeroes there. suffice it to say, about 21.5 million on continuing claims is definitely a disturbing number arguably bigger than we expected as i said, when you look in the rear-view mirror at the all-time high number which is a whisker around 25 million, how has the market reacted right now we're around the same

75 basis points on the ten year note italian tens dropping. euro currency zoom, zoom, zooming much closer to 113 it was at 108 not that long ago. it really has been a rather easy trade, if there are easy trades. the ecb had to find a way to share debt and the notion of that is very bullish for their currency and at this point in time as they ramp up their numbers to get very close to the large numbers in the u.s., the whole world is watching and funds will start to flow there. high tide of stimulus floats all reopening boats. becky, back to you >> hey, rick, what did you think of the adp number yesterday? >> you know, i thought that the adp number was much tamer. i think that's a good sign now it's very difficult for me to see these numbers that normally aren't good numbers, but when you look at them through the prism of what we are expecting and worst case

scenarios, i continue to say that what we're going through on coronavirus and then of course what's going on with regard to large cities, none of this is good, but i'm going to tell you, it was like black friday in our suburbs. people were going into raw stores, buying things as things reopened i can't speak for places i don't live, but i can tell you this, the reopening in the midwest really is rather aggressive. it seems like pent up, whether it's going to restaurants, pent up doing shopping and i think that some of these issues are going to more than outweigh some of the areas of the country that were hit harder and are going to come back slowly to sum it up, i think the markets have it right. >> by the way, nice haircut. i'm jealous. waiting for my turn to get back and get a haircut, too >> i got a lollipop and a to go bag. yes. thank you. >> i like it steve liesman joins us he has more on this. steve, your take on these numbers we just saw? >> reporter: on the jobless

claims number, becky, nine straight weeks of improvement is still very high level of 1.87 million, which is pretty much in line with what economists had forecast the insured unemployment rate, that's the percentage of employees receiving benefits who are eligible, still an elevated 14.8%. i still have very large -- we still have very large numbers of claims in places like california, 230,000. florida still playing catch up at 206,000 that was up by 31,000. georgia, 148,000 new york has come down these are still ridiculously high numbers only 82,000. texas down still but still a large number in texas at 106,000. you had contessa brewer on from nevada, nevada, whatever you want to call it, uninsured 25% and leading the nation this is like all of the other data it's improving

it's still pretty horrendous the worry that you have is not that you have this reopening, which is very helpful to what the outlook on the economy, the question is this second wave do you have non-front line businesses that are closing upstream do you have some small businesses that have given up the ghost and decided they can't reopen second wave not of the virus but potential closings and what we have to watch out for? i don't think this helps the optimistic view of the adp it doesn't contradict it but it doesn't say it's improving faster though it is improving. >> steve, thank you very much. joining us right now to talk about today's data and whether the economy's really as strong as the stock market would have you believe is glenn hubbard he is former council of economic advisers glenn, we've watched this huge v-shaped recovery in the stock market the economy not improving at the same pace. what are you seeing right now? what are you kind of thinking

where we'll be, i know it's impossible to guess, let's say a month or two months from now >> in terms of the stock market, the stock market is not the same thing as the economy very forward looking and it's picking up the chance of a recovery but also very low levels of interest rates and discount rates a lot of fed action and the importance of names that have a lot of market power in an environment. it's not that the stock market is wrong, it's not the same as the economy. the economy, i agree, the initial claims numbers that are coming in around what economists have forecast are relatively good news. the continuing claims are still high to me the question going forward, i certainly hope the adp number is right, is how quickly the labor market does heal that's going to be a lot about how we help small businesses, how we help people retrain and get new jobs that's what's there. >> that's a good question.

rick scott said we've already spent $1 trillion. there is definitely some fatigue that's setting in among legislato legislators, at least some thinking what more can we do, we've already spent this much money. what would you be advocating at this point as somebody who's been in washington and who has worked around policy and looked at initiatives when you talk about job training or trying to help small businesses? what specifically needs to be done >> well, the first thing is to get the rest of the c.a.r.e.s. act right. as part of the c.a.r.e.s. act, the congress appropriated $454 billion to the fed part of which would be used to stand up a main street lending facility the fed has not moved with dispatch on that and the treasury department is really coming up with design limitations that i fear are going to make it less effective. that money's there it's ready to backstop main street facility and the fed could do it. another big issue is community colleges in the country. we could have a massive federal

support for community colleges that costs a fraction of what we've been spending elsewhere. i think if we're smart about it, make the cares act work, help community colleges will make a lot of progress. we're going to need it >> what are the limitations you're talking about, design limitations coming from the fresh ri treasury which ones do you deem appropriate? >> i think in terms of the main street facility, part of the issue is making banks feel comfortable making these loans without a lot of underwriting penalties for borrowers, making sure there's a long enough maturity and a low enough interest rate that make it attractive you're trying to really simulate patient capital for these businesses so they can get back on their feet. i fear the program as designed will have no lenders and no borrowers. that means it won't lose any money. also means it won't be very effective. >> because the banks aren't going to want to make these loans? they'll be too concerned about the penalties or the

implications of what comes >> correct and banks aren't unreasonable. the government has in the past gone after banks and retraded policy initiatives i think the fed is being very careful here but the treasury's focused on not losing money or losing very little money and it's going to make this program less effective if we don't get small and mid-sized firms back on their feet quickly, we run the risk of failures and further job loss. that's the second wave that steve mentioned. small businesses churn all the time, of course, they don't just pop up overnight if you want the labor market to heal, we have to fix this. >> glenn, we had jason furman with us a little earlier this morning, another former council of economic advisers chairman. his point was he's concerned about the state and local governments at this point, that if they don't get additional support that you are going to see massive layoffs that out do the layoffs that we saw from state and local governments back in 2008 and 2009

he talked about how the drag over five years added up to something like three percentage points, .6 of a percentage point for every year over five years do you have concerns about that, too? >> i do. i think the drag may even be a little bit higher if you look at what mark zandi has put out. there are two critical reasons for aid to states. one is public health pandemics don't live within state boundaries this is as clear a reason as i can imagine. the second is just the logic that was in the c.a.r.e.s. act to support private businesses so there wouldn't be a lot of layoffs. same logic for the states. there are ways to structure block grants to do that, changes in medicaid matches, other funds. the national governor's association has a proposal to do this i think it's very, very important that we're, again, going to get the second wave of lower aggregate. >> what do you think the appetite is in congress for

picking up some sort of legislation like that? like i said, we have spoken with representatives and senators here who honestly after all the money we've spent are getting fatigued thinking about all the checks we're writing. >> they should we are writing a lot of checks as i said before, part of what we need to do is just make the c.a.r.e.s. act work, which doesn't cost anything. for the state, the number the national governor's association has used is $500 billion perhaps it could be a bit lower. we really, really have to do this the alternative is not doing nothing, the economy turns on. the alternative is layoffs and demand we get paid for this one way or another. it's quite right that some states get in trouble for other reasons. there shouldn't be an indication to bail them out i think fine legislation can make that. >> glenn, thank you. good talking to you. we'll have you back soon >> sure. >> thank you >> andrew?

coming up when we return, thanks, becky, we've got details on the ecb's decision last hour to increase its emergency bond buying program a live report. we will bring it to you next followed by what you need to look ought for in the markets this mniorng stay tuned, you're watching "squawk" right here on cnbc. is a time for action. so, for a second time we're giving members a credit on their auto insurance. because it's the right thing to do. we're also giving payment relief options to eligible members so they can take care of things like groceries before they worry about their insurance or credit card bills. right now is the time to take care of what matters most. like we've done together, so many times before. discover all the ways we're helping members at usaa.com/coronavirus

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european central bank expanding its emergency bond purchase program by more than was expected ecb president christine lagarde is speaking right now. steve, a couple of things. number one, it's not either/or it is nevada so try to get it right. the people in that state will tell you that. and then i just want to tell you the other thing. in the rundown it had this thing. it says intro liesman and it's altogether slash data and i looked down and it looks like it says intro liesmania i thought that's what it said.

that sums up -- >> reporter: it's a national -- it's a national phenomenon, joe, of people who are my fans for my music and my economic -- >> i feel it liesmania. >> tens and tens and tens of people. >> tens of dozens. >> reporter: tens of dozens of people real quickly on will lagarde, j the big news was in the 7:45 announcement we're not missing much here. that was a huge -- not huge, very large amount of extra funding in the pandemic emergency purchase program up 600 billion euros to 1.35 trillion that surprised the market. three headlines on lagarde she sees risks to the down side. she sees a q3 rebound. more in the second half. labor market is rapidly deteriorating. ultimately the inflation outlook, she says, is subdued.

that's what animates the ecb they only react to inflation if the outlook is down, they have to react to that and they are reacting i think one of the stories of the day that you think about is a very aggressive lagarde. i think she's more aggressive. i don't know how you would have acted in this situation, but she's certainly been aggressive here surprising the market, which is a central bank tool. she used it today. the markets seemed to react favorably to it, joe >> okay. all right. steve, thank you liesmania. like wrestlemania. is that portman, too maybe. anyway, beck, over to you. >> thank you, joe. when we come back, we're going to talk markets ahead of the opening bell on wall street. in the meantime check out shares of j.m. smucker. they beat estimates on the top and bottom line with results driven by covid-induced consumer

demand smucker forecast a 1 to 2% decline in fiscal 2021 pretty phenomenal if you look at pet food sales or the uncrustables, those peanut butter and jelly sandwiches with the crusts cut off, massive, massive increases in some of those items. smucker's ceo mark smucker will join jim cramer on "mad money" as will the speaker of the house nancy pelosi and shopify's ceo harley fingle stein.

box. want to get to cnbc headquarters where jim cramer is right now. nice to see you.

you're up there buying up the bonds again, so the propping up continues. the question i would ask you is how do you play that >> well, it's been a trade on our banks. people always try or the algos always try to find how people could benefit. the answer is if the european banks come to life, there's reason to think there will be more lending if there's more lending, the u.s. banks will do more lending too. it hasn't been a terrific way to make money because the bank stocks are obviously not doing well, but perhaps the dollar goes down and then we have all these big international companies that do better you had a really good conversation with mike santoli and gene munster >> jim munster, yeah >> what's not going to work with this environment are traditional tech stocks that i think we have

to steer clear of, the ones particularly that have done well in the covid environment this is a very, very fluid situation we've got here, and it's kind of exciting actually >> gene seems to be suggesting if you're effectively in the advertising business like facebook, long term, that's going to be, or at least shorter term, it's going to be a tough place to be. he also talked about some of the big names that have been so loved. the pelotons of the world, the zooms of the world, but he didn't say to sell them. >> because zoom, if it's down 10%, you have to buy peloton, you still can't get one until july facebook has stock that's doing quite well you have to hand it to them, they just keep inventing they just don't stop so is there a case to sell the stay-at-homes? i think you have to hear mark

zucker, because that stock is down campbells not rallying off that great number there's a lot in play. look at these airlines, by the way. are they unbelievable? >> okay. >> okay? >> an unbelievable story >> how about how are you doing how you doing? >> jim, it's nice -- it's great to see you >> you're my friend. i'm asking how you're doing. >> i'm doing just fine >> that's all i care about >> we'll see you in a little >> all right >> i hope you're doing well, too, my friend i'll see you in a couple minutes. everybody should watch "mad money" tonight you also have nancy pelosi on and so many others it's going to be quite a show. i also want to hear you and david talking about this deal with td ameritrade and charles schwab as well >> cramer, have you had those peanut butter and jellies? because i have had those, and the smucker thing, they cut off

the krucrust. i had them where there's nothing else to eat, like at a golf thing. they're unbelievable >> i also had their natural peanut butter, just so good. they send us a tank of it, and you know, it is just -- you can't stop >> you remember when they bought the peanut butter? they were making jelly then i thought, like, the tunney fish company should by the mayo. >> i agree, because pb & j was such a natural fit >> that i understood, and you know, just the synergy, it was really apparent. >> better than ameritrade. more important than the deal david is talking about >> you can't feed tuna mayo, right? that doesn't work. thanks, jim. futures falling after jobless claim claims data showed nearly 1.9 million americans filed for unemployment in the last week. our next guest says the rally could be sustained joining us is mona, portfolio

manager and u.s. investment strategist you have to talk to mohammed, get him onboard. >> yeah. got to get some convincing going on >> don't do it, please actually, don't do that. the thing that you see is that risk is going back on. and you think that is sustainable? >> you know, look, i think there are a few technical factors we have now hit that are giving us some hope. number one, the s&p last week crossed that 3,000 threshold that's not only a psychological barrier but also a technical 200-day moving average a lot of investors were looking for perhaps more importantly what we saw really in some of the above average cash levels sitting on the sideline during this 30%, now 40% rally both in the institutional space and the retail space many of these players now have to play some catchup to get other performance levels looking at least in line with the indices. how do they do that?

one, they could try to chase some of these covid winners. the tech and health care names or they could really look to some of the laggards in the market sectors like the financials, industrials, parts of the energy complex, and clearly, since mid-may, what we have been seeing is there has been this rotation to some of the laggards that's also driven by the better health numbers coming off the coronavirus cases and the increasing mobility in reopening story we're seeing across the country. so good some technical factors we have run quite a bit. periods of consolidation are natural, but we vene hope for sustained rally. >> pretty crazy if you look at all the cross current swirling, you have the worry about a second wave of covid, and we don't even know if it's gone, and then you point out how unsettling the entire country is right now in terms of racial introspection and a profound, everyone is trying to figure out what to do and how to change

these things and then the demonstrations even play into the possibility that it doesn't help with the covid response, and then, you know, we're still worried about china. there's nothing good happening i guess except the reopening and it seems like the reopening could be cut short at any time by a resurgence of the disease i mean, maybe that continues to make everyone skeptical, so maybe that helps, but it seems like it's a real concern >> yeah, you know, i think one on the health side itself, what we're seeing generally, could there be hot spots that emerge absolutely, but will we face another reshutting of the entire u.s. economy most likely not. we'll be able to deal with these outbreaks on a more regional basis, which is helpful. we'll hopefully have more therapies to help in place as well, and the pressure on the hospital systems needs to be alleviated, particularly in the epicenter of the crisis, here in new jersey and new york in particular

on the protest front, you bring up a great point this is really a profound period of introspection going on in the country here we suspect some of those that are protesting are also part of this 40 million population that have lost their jobs, and of course, perhaps, at higher risk for covid itself so clearly, some changes need to take place after this really senseless murder that we saw just last week but from a market perspective, you know, the s&p 500 index itself is a compilation of the 500 largest market cap companies in the u.s better capitalized, more liquid, perhaps offering better exposure to some of the winners after this crisis, and so when you think about globally really what your investable asset classes are, you can see why the s&p 500 perhaps has been a flight to safety asset class sadly, this crisis has really been most impactful to the small businesses and the mom and pop

shops, for this crisis in particular so we're seeing that reflected in the marketplace as well >> you point out the s&p has been probably the best performer globally, i guess. it has - >> that's correct now. it surpassed the chinese shanghai index, which had been the best performer, and they were the first to get into this crisis perhaps now the first to reemerge from this crisis. but really, some of the stories we have been seeing, the s&p, the broadening out of the index performance has really helped push the u.s. market both on the equity and actually on the bond side as the top performer. >> mona, i'm looking at your resume have you thought about further education at some point just to get a little ahead i mean, bs in economics from wharton, a ba in computer sciences from penn, and an mba from harvard just wondering -- i don't know, you're not a doctor yet, an md just throw that in >> i am married to an md, though, so that's great. he works at a medical group

close to your home town. >> that's where can got my tests. >> great >> great place we have to go, though. great seeing you >> appreciate it >> you're welcome, and thank you to becky and thank you to you, too, andrew. anyway kidding. kidding. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber coming to you live we're coming off the highest level for the s&p post-covid, and although futures a red, jobless claims continue to moderate 1.8 million is the lowest in ten weeks. airlines and casinos continue to reopen the ecb expands their emergency purchases. oil just below $37 we're going tokeep our eye on covid news we'll keep our