reopening america. an update on getting movie theaters, sports leagues back to business showing you what it looked like yesterday when las vegas casino opened their door. on top of everything else, it is jobs friday. more than 8 million jobs lost last month june 20 and "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning. happy friday and welcome to "squawk box. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the dow is up more than 3.5% already this week. can you see the moves here it has been up four sessions in a row. s&p and nasdaq was up slightly

wednesday was the huge gain of 527 points looking for a fifth day today, this morning, futures are sharply higher again the dow indicated up about 300 points this morning. s&p futures indicated up by 24 and nasdaq up by about 35 points this comes after we saw treasury yields pushing to the highest level we've seen in a while yesterday. if you've been watching the 10-year, you know it is yielding 0 0.835% now back above 0.8%. all happening as we await the jobs job monthly jobless claims for may economist think unemployment rate upped to 18.5 up from 14% at the end of april. most are anticipating that the depths of this are going to be cut short as the economy is

reopening. that's why you see the market up every day in the face of some rough headlines. thank you, becky we have a number of big important interviews taking place in addition to those job numbers. iac chairman barry diller joining us this morning and the ceoof walmart discussing solutions and the ceo of slack, of course, redefining the way we work the may unemployment report is due. happening at 8:30 a.m. eastern time forecasters predicting another 8 million plus job lesses wiossese past month unemployment rate hitting 20% with numbers we've seen from adp. >> trying to figure out to go short adp or long. i've given up on the market.

adp is supposed to be $9 million. on wednesday, it was two now it is eight. seems similar to nine. today, if we get something like eight when the government does it that makes me think. wtf with adp >> you are looking at different ways of counting a lot of these things none of it is perfect. today, i don't know that it is necessarily going to matter. we have already moved past it. rooki ro looking at more and more states opening. >> what they think about that time was really rattled on

wednesday. today, i thought it goes either way. if it was 10, people would be like, my god, that's a total head fake. if it was two again or even six, i think that would add fuel to the rally. people would think, wow, adp wasn't dead wrong. >> the idea that somebody who has been furloughed is still on the payroll. i don't get how they measure those numbers. >> he said, i don't believe my own number >> he told us he's down with this he believes this >> he thinks it indicates a very

short had been lived recession we need two quarters anyway i love vegas i liked it for two days. >> have you ever done that gone there and you are like, god, i love this and two days placer, and you are like, i need to get out of here. >> 48 hours. that's good. >> 48 hours. that's it. >> you have a higher tolerance than i do. better than atlantic city. >> atlantic city, you can drive away from in the winter. >> looking now at what it is like for the first people to return saying the crowds picked up

steadily mask use was spotty. belagio turned up the famous fountains. wayne newton was on hand welcoming guests back. got to check the age there reopening in vegas but was largely deserted is he mid-80s? maybe he's just so iconic he'll just always be around. i thought about dig clark. nobody lives forever >> nba will resume the season on july 31 in orlando, florida. including 22 teams each playing eight regular season games before entering a

full round playoff bracket the season is set to end no later than november 12 the nba player's association still needs to sign off on the deal >> wayne newton is only 78 he made it big really young. >> he did. when i used to watch him, he was in his 20s already a huge megastar. it has been 50 years we were watching and he always snapped his fingers. not related to figure newton he's wayne newton. he was big he was p big in vegas before everybody else decided they would travel before that it was wayne

>> in the meantime, the national association of theater owners are confident. they expect 90% open in july in time for the new christopher nolan movie "tenant" from warner brothers expecting 35,000 screens in the u.s. and more internationally. they do have some optimistic expectations in terms of openings slack reporting a smaller than expected first quarter loss for the first time like zoom the company benefitting to the shift of work from home. stock is down as they are only slightly raising its forecast for the year other slack news, the company deepening partnership with amazon under the new deal, all amazon employees will have access to

the work place tools and revamp video calling feature to take advantage of a aws service called chime stewart butterfield will join us at 8:20 a.m. to talk about those earnings and the report. the other issue is you got to make money. if you can't make money during this, when can you but we'll see. we'll see. >> there is a lot of money so wayne was in his teens. >> really? >> he hit it big solo in his 20s, sos that why. that's why he kind of looks the same. there may be something >> don't we all. >> there may be something going on there, i think, that may have been done.

never mind >> oh, jealous >> yeah. >> jealous >> i'm not beyond doing something. i'm not. but then five years later. >> needles in your forehead. good luck. >> exactly that's the down side we can make you look better if we can put needles in your forehead or go under the knife for something you don't need. >> and then you look like this >> dr. scott gottlieb is coming on i don't know if he minored in cosmetic surgery he's a doctor. he must know something >> i don't think so. >> he'll talk to us not about this but the covid cases and what is happening since memorial day. everybody is out we've been saying the mask use is spotty. u.s. equity futures have pulled

back a little. up 260 points now. we are coming right back yes. the first word to any adventure. but when allergies and congestion strike, take allegra-d... a non-drowsy antihistamine plus a powerful decongestant. so you can always say "yes" to putting your true colors on display. say "yes" to allegra-d. to putting your true colors on display. our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence... ...we can spend a bit now, knowing we're prepared for the future. surprise! we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. i'm good at my condo. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement. try nature's bounty sleep3, a unique tri-layer supplement that calms you, helps you fall asleep faster

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you can count on us. get the connectivity your business needs. call today. comcast business. u.s. covid-19 cases have been steadily increasing. according to a cnbc analysis of data bottomed at roughly 21,000 but

hot spots have emerged in places like florida, texas and aishz. astrazeneca hopes to produce 2 billion doses of the vaccine by september including 400 million doses for the united states and the uk 1 billion to be divided a among low to middle income countries they hope to have all shipments delivered by early 2021. >> more questions this morning about the use of hydroxychloroquine of potential treatment of covid one of the world top journals contracted a study with more on this, bring in drjs he's a cnbc contributor and serves on the board of illumina

and pfizer >> they are not making their data sources available there are some questions with their data in terms of the purity and consistency of it looking at different data sets it seemed too inconsistent this is unfortunate. two data points worth noting about hydroxychloroquine one is a study that was rigorous in the last week that showed it didn't provide a benefit when used prophylactically. using it as preventative, people should be cautious using it in that regard. taking interim luke, taking a look at accruing data and have

allowed studies to continue. suggesting if the drug was causing a lot of harm, they would have stopped those early and they didn't. they allowed those studies to continue we'll eventually have a more definitive answer about whether it is providing benefit as a treatment. >> we ought to be able to figure out like we did with remdesivir, which was not a huge beneficial effect once you looked at it it was enough to hit a statistic call end point but you always said it was not going to be a home run it helps to know, if it is not as dangerous as it was portrayed, that would help to know if it does no harm -- isn't that the hypocratic oath?

>> we'll know soon more studies will read out it has slowed down the infection rate has slowed down remdesivir trials were done earlier. it was easier to come to completion on those studies. this month, we should have a read out on these hydroxychloroquine studies it is probably not producing the robust treatment effect if at all. if it was, you would have seen the signal earlier a lot of doctors have pulled away from prescribing it you really shouldn't be using it outside of a clinical trial. >> we speak to you a lot are you seeing droubling signs about all these people that are out and whether we are seeing spikes among people that attended a lot of these demonstrations or protests

it has been about a week we should be seeing it if it's going to happen? >> still a little early to see the impact you probably want to wake two weeks in a couple of rep indicatireply indication cycles it will take time for those to grow into the kind of numbers you can detect it a good website is rt.live. they take in data from different states and try to model the reproduction rate. right now, they show about 12 states where they have an expanding epidemic pretty consistent with the other models now you see cases growing. ais arizona, arkansas, texas,

montana, alaska. the bottom of the list is vermont, new york, new jersey and connecticut. the states that took the toughest hit have come down the curve the fastest. >> it is a lot of young people, so maybe a lot of them are asymptomatic would it take another week to see if there are more people in a vulnerable demo? >> that's right. that's what i'm suggesting if you change the transition in those crowds, it will take a few weeks before they go on to spread it before those numbers where you can detect an up tick. whether or not we see an epidemic in these starts, that's hard to tell >> an italian doctor said stheez strains are less deadly.

any hope that could happen here with the most predominant form of the virus possible that could become less deadly and peter out or less likely >> that's possible and unlikely in this short time span. going through less expectation than the flu the flu has eight. has reassortment this has less reassortment you are less likely -- for the vaccine. exactly. it is more preserved >> okay. so weird so many nuances to thinking about all of this. i just wonder about the wave again and about the fall and i still wonder seasonally whether there is some advantage there. i think new york -- we are not -- i shouldn't say we. new york is still not opening until mid-july or something for some of the phases is the latest

do you thinks that prudent at this point new york city? >> all the states have implemented phased plans i know they are opening some stuff this coming week i think more of the recreational activities in doors are later on connecticut is opening casinos and theaters later a lot of activities are being pushed outside like restaurants. in connecticut, we are opening restaurants predominantly outdoors to start. it is prudent to limit activity in doors crowding people in purely for recreational purposes. we are taking some risks in what we are doing >> thank you i'm going to get one of those things what is that called in a

pergama? >> pergola >> it does nothing for blocking the sun or if it is raining. it looks nice. >> you can grow things on it and then it blocks the sun grow a vine. >> can you smoke what you grow on it thee tlemaybe? >> those things don't grow on vines. >> thank you for playing along when we return, a billionaire battle royale musk calling for amazon to be broken up and the feud taking place on line taking a look at the biggest

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elon musk blasting amazon and

going after jeff bez owe on twitter. at issue, a book about the coronavirus initially rejected by amazon for publication. the book was going to be electronic questions whether the virus is as deadly as experts say. tweeting this is insane. time to break up amazon. monopolies are wrong a spokesperson says the book was removed by error but no response yet about musk's comment about breaking up the company. >> elon musk, always treading lightly. joe, we had been talking about this >> this is similar to -- musk has staked out a position on the

reopening. alex barrenson's book has played into that and is more firmly staking out a position it gets interesting. who do we talk about just the main visionary? the biggest guys on the planet right now. it is cool we can talk about a spat -- and not the first time it has happened but between musk and bezos makes it a spicy story. hopefully, we'll get on alex barrenson. >> for those who don't know him, he's not come after this with an agenda or anything else. he's a straight forward guy, a novelist and journallist he follows the facts

he goes where the stories take him. again, the information he uncovered and the data he uncovered took him down a path that was not very popular but one he followed through. we had him on to talk about marijuana. he was not in favor once he found the effects from digging into the data, even with his background and based on where you would think he would wind up he follows the facts all the time i love the new york times. the positions he stakes out are sort of anti-thet call he doesn't go after to do that >> did you see the twitter stuff

he said about marijuana. if i were him, i would not have looked at twitter. for this, this works with ma he got about marijuana. for him to even suggest you should reopen. he's not looking at twitter or he's got skin this thick or intestinal fortitude. >> going back to musk and bezos and how you measure the two. they are probably the most widely followed entrepreneurs, big thinkers and guys going after space but bezos does have the bigger wallet. >> okay. yeah okay not going to say anything about it got a big wallet musk is no slouch. >> in fact, what he's done with

tesla shares lately has been something to watch we have ron barron on next week to talk about that and spacex. >> i think he's a trillion air that's 1,000 billion that's going to cause a raw cuss that's enough income inequality for the whole planet when we come back, we'll get you ready for today's big job's report forecasters expecting 8 million jobs were loss in the month of may. more predictions next. pointing to that rally dow has been up four trading sessions in a row. now indicated up another 250 points lower than half an hour ago when it was up more than 300 points s&p up by 19, nasdaq up by 21. dow already up more than 3.5%

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. this friday, futures are indicated higher

right now, thedow is up about 268. up four sessions in a row. up 3.5% just this week alone we are heading into that jobs number take a quick look at crude oil prices as well this morning wti is trading up a little bit up by another 85 cents >> we are getting another job's report expecting unemployment rate to rise to 19.5% and decline of eight million nonfarm payrolls welcome to our guests. good morning to both of you. michelle, i'll start with you. we've all been debating what the numbers will be. my question is how relevant is

the actual number this morning i think what joe was saying earlier, the number will be watched. no question. to some extent, it's old news. this is a snap shot of where we were in the middle of may. as the economies across the country are beginning to reopen, the extend to which so many of these individuals reported to be out of work in the middle of may were started to be retired and reemployed it is important. the message is that the worst is behind us. it will mirror the adp report in that way it will welcome news even with the decline reported those markets will look through this in either case.

>> steven, what is your number what do you think it will suggest or even tell us about the depths of the situation or how quickly things will come back or not. >> i'll leave the number to the economist. i don't have a specific view on today's report but what michelle said is important. i don't think markets will be focused on what is a really bad number i think they are more focused on the path forward and watching real time data on consumer spending as the economy begins to reopen. if anything, if the number comes in a little bit better than expected, that will add fuel to the fire around the market rally we are seeing. >> is there anything specific within the number rather than just the headline number, within the number that you think may be telling? >> michelle.

>> you just had the chart up for the percent of unemployed on temporary layoff i will watch that closely. when you think about the massive number of unemployed the expectation to approach 20%. the one silver lining is that the bulk of those believe they will be called ba beick to work six months whether or not all of those workers will be called back to work i understand is an open question to watch that to get a sense of looking forward and how long these unemployment rate numbers will be standing and a lot of us will pay attention to. >> you talked about the market going higher if you thought this number was even lower your expect is that the market will go higher anyway, no?

>> we think the market will continue to climb this wall of worry. we've seen a shift to the new phase of recovery. the first rally we saw was a policy response rally. so $20 trillion of fiscal and monetary stimulus around the world cut off some of the tail risk of what we saw in march what we are seeing in the last week or two is a shift towards greater optimism about greater recovery and a return to growth. that's why we have seen rotation into some cyclical parts of the market they are up some 30% from the bottom, investors are still cautiously positioned. you have trillions in earninhold earning nothing. i think that money is eventually going to come back to the market

and that can push us higher. >> do you think we could breakthrough all-time highs this summer would that make sense to you at some point, all of this is a bit of a gamble at this point? >> clearly, there's risk investors will point to the fact that valuations are already elevated despite the fact that we have tremendous uncertainty the data we are following is backward looking we all know what we are going through is terrible. as people start looking ahead towards 2021 and beyond. the question they are asking themselves is can we return to some sort of normalcy. three quarters of the s&p is noncyclical. >> real quick, 12 months from now, 18 months from now, how quickly do you think

unemployment rate will come down >> i think we'll be around 8.5% by the end of this year and i think we'll be slightly lower but still in the 7.5 to make 8% range through 2021 i think we can reverse quickly off of the highs we are likely to see today but i do think we'll be looking at an unemployment rate that remains elevated through next year i don't think we'll get back to previrus gdp levels until 2022 maybe really closing the gap to where we were before >> michelle. thank you, steven, appreciate it we'll keep our eyes out and bring it to you live joe. okay hopefully not too big. coming up, check out the shares of this retail company hit hard by the pandemic but rebounding

now up 16% year to date. a weird looking v. it's a v but on the other side, the slope isn't that much. we'll reveal the name after the break. you can watch or listen to us live any time on the cnbc app. if you want to go to the squawk pod, you can only listening. a look at scenes yesterday as states reopen for business across america for as little as $5, now anyone can own companies in the s&p 500, even if their shares cost more. at $5 a slice, you could own ten companies for $50 instead of paying thousands. all commission free online. schwab stock slices: an easy way to start investing or to give the gift of stock ownership. schwab. own your tomorrow.

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welcome back u.s. equity futures indicated up sharply. average up 3.5%. dout indicatthe dow indicated up

another 278. now we've got wti actually over $38 a barrel, so there are some things at least someone somewhere thinks will be better in terms of the economy and global growth. retailer gap says first quarter sales fell 43% the company's ceo said sales continue to decline into may but online growth soared more than 100% during the month. 1,500 stores are back open leading above old normals held by old navy. and gap cfo said they are in active and ongoing negotiations with landlords to work through this crisis together becky. >> this is such an interesting

story. simon property groups, the largest mall operator and gap is one of its biggest tenant. it's just what is going to happen again and again and again. you can shut things down and say we are going to take a pause and wait but no money came in to those retailers but what do you do if you are one of the rets or the property manager do you get stuck holding the buck on that or does it go up to the banks? those companies will have a hard time there is no such thing as everybody take a break and pause and everybody wake up and nothing has gone on. you can't do something like that time does march on somebody is going to have to pay for the short fall that comes from this. my guess is that gap is saying we are willing to pay something but not full rent.

we should all share this the question is how much of that do you share and how much of the pain does each side take >> somewhere in the future when you are in a better way find a way to make it up. the housing market right now is not nuts too some things are positive with rates this low -- >> with a mortgage, instead of rent, you can add it to the end of the mortgage agreement. there has been debate and argument about the idea that i shouldn't have to keep paige interest and have that added to the end. nobody should be a beneficiary it is different for somebody who owns or somebody who rents that's just time that has

disappeared and sales that are lost somebody saying, you have to pay me for a time when i closed the mall and didn't let anybody into the store. >> my son is following all of this stuff so penneys is closing some 240 stores i'm getting a lot of business news from my son now that is permanent closure. >> sears and others doing the same thing a lot of this is fast forwarded because we have changed where and how we shop. >> penny was a tough turn around, no doubt >> yeah. you had a lot of great retailers that went in and tried to fix it it is hard to get people back into a store once they stop going there. go ahead >> i saw the other day on the

show before us, brian had on martinez whocame in to sears and did like the greatest job ever but there was no saving sears. >> no. even with mickey drexler, yesterday, he talked about how you have to be a great merchant. being a great merchant isn't enough so much of it is how you deliver things to people do you have e commerce and the rest of them the mystery chart we showed you before the break, rh, formerly known as restoration hardware. the company said its business continued to accelerate in may hit a new 52-week high up another 3% this morning $256. when we come back. finding solutions to the crisis in america as we head to break, take loa ok

at the biggest gainers "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back, everybody. nationwide civil unrest has most

executives and ceos trying to figure out how to address racial injustice. our next guest says acknowledging injustice isn't enough and corporate america can push for systemic change joining us is jim shelton. he's a senior social impact advisor of kkr and a nonresident fellow at brookings. thanks for being here today. >> good morning. i'm happy to be here. >> first of all, explain blue meridian for those who aren't familiar >> blue meridian is a unique philanthropic vehicle for philanthropists to invest in solutions to scale try to meet hard problems with hundreds of millions of dollars so you can actually solve them >> you say that talk is cheap. we have heard a lot of talk but we've also heard some ceos and

some corporate executives who are really putting their money where their mouth is this week, too, in terms of trying to effect change. what do you think needs to happen and what are ways things stick around longer than when the public's attention is captured >> i think the conversation we're having before the break is apropos for this break we have to have faith that we're going to prevail in the end but we have to be willing to face the brutal facts of where we are today. i appreciate the efforts that have been made this week to confront the crisis that we have, but the reality is that the crisis that we are seeing today is just the tip of the iceberg. yes, someone was brutally murdered yes, we have actually had a crisis of racism in this country that has translated, we have to

go after it hard the reality is the systems we've had, the economy has not performed. it's allowed us to go from 90% of americans able to achieve the american dream in the 1940s to a 50-50 chance today that's not for african-americans, that's for all-americans. when we come back we have to build back an economy that is not what we had but is something better we have to invest in systems that actually close inequity gaps not in dribs and drabs on the backs of philanthropy and corporate responsibility but using the entirety of our platform, the entirety of a corporate platform it shouldn't be rendered to university officer and foundation to try to figure out how you're going to use your organization to make good in the world. it shouldn't be left to philanthropy, which is great i dedicate my life to help people use their dollars to have the most impact in the world

the poverty, the inequity meet solutions that meet scale for those problems >> jim, what is the american dream when you're measuring it and saying that only 50% of people have a chance of reaching that what is that >> simple measure of american dream is are you able to do better than your parents do? are you able to provide a better life for your children than your parents were in the 1940s that was the case, 90%. 1980s dropped to 50-50 there's no reason to think that trend has reversed itself. people's lives are made or broken not by one event but before they are born until they -- the milestones that they hit all the way until they're actually a thriving adult. we need to -- the great news is there are solutions in the world. we know how to provide great preschool to kids, we know how

to solve the problems for our most disadvantaged and get foster kids into permanent homes and get people who need to be trained into jobs. we know how to do these things but we fail to scale the things that work. we fail to reorganize our systems, to recognize if we don't change our hiring practices so we start looking for competencies instead of degrees, it's hard for people who haven't had formal education but have the skills to get ahead. these are the things our systems can do to change let me add this one point in specific if i as a corporation leader, if i was a ceo and i knew that i had a part of my system that if i actually did eight small things i could improve its performance, reduce the waste by 72%, i would do it overnight there are evidence-based practices that say you can reduce police brutality, we can reduce incidents of excessive force by doing eight simple

things yet we don't see that happening across the company when i ask ceos if you were serious of this, how many of your government relations people, lobbyists are focused on these kinds of issues, on providing justice and providing opportunity? the answer is, here's what we do in our foundation. well, it's time for something new. >> okay. jim, thank you ta ce. quk x"ill be right back. ves us . yeah, they help us with achievable steps along the way... ...so we can spend a bit now, knowing we're prepared for the future. surprise! we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. oooh, well... i'm good at my condo. oh. i love her condo. nana throws the best parties. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement.

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futures higher this morning ending what looks to be a good week for stocks. we will talk about the market's move getting people back to work. a preview of today's historic jobs report with ceo of staffing firm manpower is coming up. and iac and expedia chairman barry diller will join us to talk about travel, bailouts and the ad space in an exclusive interview. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc

i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at equity futures ahead of the jobs number that will be in an hour and a half from now dow jones looks like it will open up 292 points higher. s&p 500 opening 23 points higher and nasdaq opening 30 points higher it has been a very strong week for the dow up 3.5% alone. 92 point gain. 527 points on wednesday. yesterday the index eked out an 11 point gain. we will see whether all of this hopefully can hold up whunts we get the number and maybe an indication we can hope that those adp numbers were right and that things are better than expected joe? >> thanks. breaking news on the housing markets and new mortgage forbearance numbers. diana olick joins us with more good morning, diana. >> reporter: good morning, joe

something slightly promising the number of borrowers in coronavirus mortgage relief programs dropped last week but we're still not out of the woods yet and far from it. after a steep rise in april and a flattening towards the end of may, the number of borrowers in both government and private label mortgage forbearance programs fell by 34,000 last week that is according to black knight, which is a mortgage technology data provider this is the first drop since the start of the pandemic. now there are still 4.73 million loans in forbearance representing nearly 9% of all active mortgages and just over $1 trillion worth of unpaid principle. now the vast majority are government backed, that's fannie, freddie, fha and va. the drop was in the loans. that was partially offset by an increase in forbearance by bank health and private label while the decline in those delaying is promising, there was

one big red flag and that is that in april nearly half of all borrowers who went into forbearance ended up making their monthly mortgage payment after all. as of may 26th, that share fell to less than 1/4 of those borrowers, joe >> diana, i talked with the mba. strongest year in total mortgage origination forecast all these cross currents there's some interesting things and positive with all of the negatives. let's bring in bob things were pretty dismal. activity decline 35% below year levels two months ago but we've got seven straight weeks where they've gone up and, actually, up 18%, not sequentially but up 18% year over year last week

that's like -- that's up 18% -- that's not getting back. that's actually above last year. why? >> yes, good morning what you're referring to are mortgage purchase application bounce back really nicely. as you mentioned, we were down 1/3 over last year which i guess the glass half full side, at the depths of the pandemic could be that we were still doing 2/3 as many purchases as we were the year before. we've now reversed that. you're right we're up 18% year over year. we're seeing that as states reopen and we entered this pandemic with a shortage of inventory, borrowers and home buyers are leaping back into the market to the extent they have not been affected economically by the pandemic. that's what's leading to the increased numbers. >> people are faced with two contrasting -- one is all-time low on mortgage rates, 3.37, but people may not have a lot of money because of the pandemic and they're not working.

so what is the -- they're hit with both sides basically. >> yes those are certainly crosscurrents, but we think that because of these record low interest rates as you mentioned, you can get a mortgage now for under 3% if you pay a little bit in points, buy the rate down a little bit, and 15 year rates are already below 3% at 2.78 so i think home buyers are saying if there's a good house on the market, i can afford more than i could before with these low rates and if they're fortunate like we are where we can still work through this pandemic from home or whatever the other arrangements are, they are going back to the market. >> big rephis. maybe people can tap the home equity diana, you have a question >> reporter: yeah. bob, you look at the mortgage delinquency numbers. it was only a decade ago we saw

huge numbers these borrowers, you have millions of them now not paying on their loans, they're not allowed to be reported as delinquent from the c.a.r.e.s. act. do you think this is going to end differently than foreclosures >> i think the latter, diana we have a really good program from fannie and freddie that permits payment deferrals. so when people have their foreborn payments just added so that it's paid when the loan is paid off, whether it be a refinance or selling your house. and there's no qualification for that in other words, if you get your job back or whatever your hardship was is resolved and you can resume making your regular payment, it's a much simpler process than the modifications we went through during the crisis the low interest payments will be a wind at our back through this we're optimistic that most of these borrowers who are able to defer payments will be able to resume making payments of course, that depends on the

shape of the recovery, but we're optimisti optimistic. >> not everyone is going to move out to the burbs but it seems like a lot of people will move will it be bifurcated in terms of prices. weak in big cities but prices will be strong in some of the bedroom communities? >> i think it's too early to say. there are those crosscurrents that are always at play where the home prices don't move in lock step from market to market. while you may see some strength as people seek less dense areas, we think the cities will come back, too. remember, you have other things that play there like the salt taxes and the limit on deductions and things that can have variations from market to market broadly speaking we expect it to be robust. we're looking at a 4% price increase this year in 2020. >> supply is down and nobody's been building because they haven't been able to i don't know what that means diana, do you have another

question >> reporter: yeah. i was going to ask we look at the rephi market. we saw the purchase applications jump dramatically but we're not seeing rephis. we're also hearing people are not getting the best rates on the rephis where do you stand on that >> yes refinances are up 137% year over year but we think they should be up even higher given where rates are. we have seen that the spread between the 10-year treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate is wider than usual we expect that to come in as volume subsides and more borrowers are able to take advantage of these historic rates. we definitely encourage your viewers to contact their lenders and see if they can save money today by a refinance i don't think everybody knows how low these rates are. >> bob, i wanted to go back to the question that joe was asking about, the suburbs, which is to say how mobile do you think the public really is there's always been a question mark about how willing people will ultimately be to move out

of the cities and even farther some of the anecdotal evidence is people are thinking not necessarily about going to the suburbs. if you go to the suburbs especially in a place like new york, you're taking public transportation, taking a train into the city which creates the same types of problems before. the question is are people going to move out of the state to places that are far, far from big cities and try to work remotely and how much do you think we're going to see that? >> well, i think that's the real question how much of the change that we've seen during the pandemic will be permanent? i think while people will take advantage of working remotely, they also appreciate the bigger and cultural amenities of a city i don't expect a massive out migration but i think more americans will have more flex bills and be able to work from home more often. i think you will see a lot of firms report productivity is not

suffered and perhaps even increased during this period the next question is how durable is that. one of the things about working from home you are on from the minute you get out of bed until the minute did you to bed and that can get wearing i think there will be an appropriate mix between coming back to the office and having the flexibility of working from home and avoiding some of those commutes. >> all right, bob. thanks for the update. >> great to be with you. >> diana, thank you. nice shot. warm, isn't it it's nice. summer it's good. >> reporter: very. >> it actually is not summer feels it summer is coming i believe it should be here on the 20th, 21st anyway, jobs report is a little over an hour away. economists are expecting 8.3 million jobs to be lost. rates hit 19%. the unemployment rate. we'll hear from staffing company manpower next. comfortable with that name then the chairman of iac and

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we've always believed in the power of working together. that's why, when every connection counts... you can count on us. welcome back to "squawk box. may jobs report going to be out at 8:30. it will shed some light. steve liesman, our professor, joins us this morning with a look at what to expect

steve, what do you think is going to happen here >> reporter: andrew, it's an interesting report markets seem to go into it with the conviction however bad it's going to be, it's going to be bad either way, it's the last terrible jobs report we're going to get out of this economic crisis there is some debate about how bad it will be and the details will tell us what the numbers mean for the future and the road back to recovery let's take a quick look at the forecast 8.3 million expected unemployment surging up to 189 poi -- 19.5%. average hourly wages estimated up 1.3%. there's a thorny may adp payroll number down 2.76 million which was way off the consensus or way better than the consensus.

here's the up side case that i think the market is basing its conviction on. it's up by only, i'm using quotes, only 3 million there's been a lot of hiring from reopening there's been hiring from the ppp program. and you have a very small second wave of job losses that would have come after the original job losses from the shutdown ian shepardson, friend from pantheon, writes this morning that continuing claims data strongly suggests that businesses in the first states to reopen quickly rehired millions of people, even as reported job postings continue to fall. okay so what in the report will show us what is the road ahead and the road back to recovery? here are four things that i'll be watching for. are the majority of unemployed still considering themselves to be on temporary layoffs. two, average hourly earnings

i want to see that number fall because that means the low wage workers who were the first ones laid off are brought back in the mix brings the average down. long-term unemployed did people move from five weeks into longer term or would they go back to work? finally last thing, did peep drop out from the work force we have to watch this number here not because it's going to be bad it's going to be bad, but how bad is it. any of the details give us hope and underpin that conviction of the market, this is the last bad one in june could be a month of job growth >> hey, steve, in terms of the average hourly earnings, i just wonder if those numbers are being inflated, too. there are a lot of employers like a walmart, target, amazon where they have raised the amount of money that they're paying per hour to their workers who are coming in and still working on the front lines, too. you know, those pay raises have been extended for all of those

cases, at least, and be probably many more. >> yeah, that's an interesting component of what's happening. ultimately though, becky, i think the number will drop, and i believe it will drop because of the mix issue we saw it rise in april, and that was a sort of curious thing. then people figured out, wait a second the first people to lose their jobs are the low wage workers. so they go that raises average hourly earnings that's why this 1.3%, if it's the right number, then it goes up only that amount, that will suggest that the low wage workers were brought back in you're right, part of that will be attenuated, i think, by some of the pay raises out there. we can hear amazon, walmart. there has been some hiring going on and that's going to also affect the numbers as well >> hey, steve, what's your latest estimate for where we are a year from now? we were talking to michelle girard she thought we would be in the high 8s by the end of this year.

didn't necessarily have a prediction for where we go after that how much do you think it really matters coming off of the base of this number >> you know, i have to think we could be close in the 5 to 7% range when it comes to unemployment a year from now i think the road ahead is a little rockier than perhaps the market has forecast here, and it depends on where you're looking. i think the next several months are going to be difficult. i think there is going to be something of a second wave of job loss i think we may have already seen that i think folks can go back to work and it depends on going back to work with the conviction of not getting sick. and we don't talk about -- we talk about that an awful lot here i wake up in the morning and my most important economic indicator is listening to you guys, your dr. scott gottleib. if he's upbeat, i can be upbeat on the economy look at what the fed is saying the fed is saying there's a 50% chance of a second wave or at

least we can't rule that out without any more probability of an up side if we can get the virus under control, not only that, becky's talked a lot about this, this idea of getting consumer confidence back to the places that they're not going to go airlines and concerts, especially concerts i have to tell you, along with sporting events and those sort of things, we can move forward. but we may move forward with a big chunk of the economy still under shutdown. >> steve, isn't your first thought, wow, this is -- i'm here this is great. i think that's -- and then i think how many liesmania segments we have today there will be liesmania in every hour do you like that >> reporter: joe, when you said that like three people tweeted out liesmania so it's -- and as -- >> is that it? >> as arlo guthrie said -- >> three people.

if you tell two people, they'll tell 50 people, pretty soon as arlo guthrie said we'll have a movement >> i'm going to ask for more because it's good. you know what, i thought you'd like it. never mind want to go back to the professor? >> reporter: i want to do my job and go away. i want to do my job and -- >> we don't want you to go away. liesmania like wrestlemania. sorry. >> reporter: it's a movement. >> you're stuck. you're trapped with the rest of us, steve. yeah >> yeah, right. >> you're stuck here with the rest of us. >> reporter: thank you guys. let's take a look at whether employers around the u.s. are ready to start hiring again. for that we bring in becky fr k frankelwicz. good to see you. she is with manpower you asked employers when they expect to get back to the precoronavirus hiring levels correct me if i'm wrong, 60% said that will happen between

now and the next 9 months? >> yes, that's accurate, becky first i'd say we're cautiously optimistic that we're approaching a turning point in how our labor market heals from this health crisis, and one of those reasons, retrospective data is going to come out later today, but one of those reasons is we are starting to see early, very early signs of recovery both in demand and job postings you and how companies are talking about it we did at manpowergroup do a survey and say when do you expect hiring to be back to precovid levels. 60% said they expected to be back by the end of the year. that leaves 40% that are saying it's going to take longer or we don't know, but 60% is a fairly optimistic number given we're sitting in june. >> i guess correct me, but nine months from

now would be in the spring of next year, not the end of this year. >> 60% are by the end of the year, so the end of december this year and the balance are saying it could take a year. there are 20% saying they don't know when recovery would happen. the other interesting thing, becky, when you compare american companies to companies outside the u.s., the global base, we are more optimistic as americans in terms of employers and globally globally only 40% say they'll be back to precovid hiring by december of this year. >> what do you think when we have economists who come on pretty routinely that they think by december they will still be looking at unemployment rate of 8 to 9%, does that match up with what you're hearing from the employers directly >> yes, likely so. so it's going to be a very slow road to recovery and any time we talk about we're starting to see early signs of movement and recovery, they're very small the base, becky, is very low

there's no question the jobs report today is going to be a difficult one. that's why it's important instead of waiting for the month to measure jobs to look week by week we've seen in the past week about a 10% increase in open jobs in the country. that's 6.5 million open jobs versus the over 40 million americans who have filed for unemployment you have to keep it in perspective. to grow, we have to start seeing the early signs. >> okay. the way that employers are probably hiring these days and the employees that are most valued at this point are probably a little different just based on how consumers have changed, based on how working from home has changed. i know you also surveyed to look at either essential and nonessential employees which skill set is rising that is being the most in demand at this point >> so we're seeing an emergence of a new labor market, becky the essential jobs that got us through the crisis are starting to look a little different than those that are going to pull us

out. we're seeing growth of course on the essential side to continue in grocery retail, continue in health care. on the non-essential side significant demand around software developers and application developers you might say, why is that well, because any time you want to order groceries or go to a fast food restaurant, becoming the norm now is ordering on an app. this importance of application developers we're also seeing steve who spoke earlier around mortgages or the economist that spoke around mortgages, you know, he was talking about the increase in refinancing we're seeing increased demand in people in that industry as well, in the finance industry. the things that will get us out will look different than the things that have gotten us through the crisis, the jobs. >> are you looking in terms of geographies, too, and where employers are looking to hire? we've heard from a lot of companies who say they're going to layoff employees, not look for additional employees in cities they're going to be looking for people who can work remotely

from other areas with a cheaper standard of living so they can pay them less, too that's anecdotally i don't know if that shows up in the data you've seen. >> i haven't seen it from a standard of living perspective, but to remote employees, in january of this year 10% of available jobs are listed as remote today it's 25% the question is if employers are opening their aperture to say it doesn't matter for certain jobs where people live, 25% of available jobs right now are remote we're also seeing states that are opening faster than those that are still closed, we're seeing about 3% increase in job demand there versus the states that are closed very early, but that's a trend i want to keep track of is it true that the states reopen faster that the job demand increases faster in those states >> becky, thank you. it's good data when we are searching for anything that can kierc kind of show us the way forward.

we appreciate your time today. >> thank you very much, becky. coming up, barry diller will be our special guest plus, what will it look like when the gates reopen at universal's theme parks today? julia boorstin will have a look. harry potter land. anyway, after this break -- or during this break take a look at the winner's and losers at the dow. "squawk box" will be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what dow component made a major investment in chipotle in 1998 the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues eighty dollars. a hundred dollars. i had good health insurance. why isn't this covered? well, then they started getting bigger. eight-hundred dollars. eighteen hundred dollars. i saved for this. but not that much. i'm glad i had aflac.

they gave me money when i needed it most. that's why aflac is here, to help with the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. i love that aflac duck. aflac! get to know us at aflac.com

now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what dow component made a major investment in chipotle in 1998 the answer, mcdonald's in 2006, mcdonald's fully divested itself from chipotle. still to come this morning, barry diller, chairman of iac and expedia joining us right after the break. then of course at the top of the hour we have walmart ceo doug mcmillon and then slack co-founder david butterfield they will join us to discuss the work at homeland scape the jobs number at 8:30.

dow up 330 points. back after this. america's fastest network for iphones. second tip: you can put googly eyes on your stuff to keep yourself company. uh for example, that's heraldo. he's my best friend. oh, sorry nancy, i forgot you were there. get the amazing iphone 11 for half-off on at&t, america's fastest network for iphones.

. welcome back to "squawk box. we're joined now by a very special guest to discuss the reopening of the economy, the state of the travel industry and so much more iac and expedia chairman barry diller good morning, barry. thanks for joining us this morning. >> good morning. how are you all? >> it's good to see you. you know, last time we spoke about six weeks ago you had a relatively dower outlook about the economy calling it cataclysmic. before we begin, how are you seeing things now that the economy is starting to reopen? >> well, it is starting, but

there's enormous damage that's been done. i mean, you just can't have the level of unemployment that you've had, the closing of almost everything, being shut in for six, eight weeks, something like that, here and there. the damage is huge i mean, of course we will come out of it, but you can't at the same time think that this damage is not going to last and be tough to come out of whether it's the small business or whether it's travel or whatever it is i mean, we're starting to see travel travel was down -- we went from 300 million a day basically in revenue to 10 million a day and we're now back i would say having been off 95 plus percent but we're now off 80%. being off 80% is not exactly

great news we've taken care of our liquidity. we're not letting -- we have not let this period go to waste. there's no question we'll come out stronger, but until people have less fear to travel and have funds to travel, it's not going to come back, and that's true i mean, that's true certainly across every board except let's call it internet based virtual businesses >> barry, let me ask you this then you know, so many folks in our audience are investors they're trying to think about their portfolio. they're trying to think families who are just trying to think about this right now there is an expectation that there is going to be a v-shaped recovery and we were talking about steve liesman, michelle girard and we are thinking about where we will be 12 months out given the market is predicting 12 months out, it's going to look a lot better are you predicting 12 months

out? >> what's the definition of v? i mean, you've got to do it based upon obviously time. i can't conceive v actually takes place unless your time horizon is multiple years. it is going to be -- it's going to be a -- i mean, v shape, but it's going to take a while the market is going to jump over it and say, well, it's going to happen at some point so let's just let this period be bad news and we'll just go to the place where it's going to be the question is, how long is it going to take to get there and what kind of continuing damage are you going to see from the damage that has already been created? i don't think that's an easy track but, of course, eventually for sure, yes. >> right so what do you think in terms of how long the track looks like? >> how long? i mean, come on.

ask, you know, your weather forecastor >> let me ask you this then. there's the issue of guidance. there are companies that are providing guidance or trying to provide guidance there are companies stopping providing guidance at least temporarily. how do you even think about that in this environment? >> what i think is actually great is that a number of companies pulled their guidance. it kind of gave us the opportunity to say, you know what, guidance is a bad business we're out. we're not doing it anymore for either expedia or for iac. it has been -- it is -- predicting the future in granular terms, which is what guidance has become, this whole concept of meet and beat and the whole industry that has grown up around it. it started off like many things, made some sense, but as it's become institutionalized, it has become a ritual, a bad ritual.

companies spend too much time massaging the process, getting the model right so that they can always beat not miss expectations, and the markets are always reactionary on that wildly short-term dumbness of what happened in the next quarter. even if guidance got so institutionalized that you beat it, but then of course you have to give guidance beyond that for the future and generally what most companies do is try and massage it down so that they can beat it. the whole thing is nuts. and the idea that you've got people who should be otherwise productively occupied actually doing some work that are not running around literally but who are spending huge amounts of

time playing this guidance game to no good other than having analysts -- i mean, yes, it helps analysts, but, you know, analysts should -- i would think if i was interested in the company, i wouldn't be interested in the granularity of this or that metric. i'd be interested in what the long-term prospects are that is presuming, of course, that i'm going to be a long-term investor if i'm in and out, then i'm just playing another kind of game so it should be ended. i would hope that this period would allow all these companies to say be gone with you, guidance it's not a good game spend your time actually figuring out where you should invest your money, how you should run your company and anybody who runs their company for a quarter is a bird brain. nevertheless, everybody who's involved in guidance, everybody pays attention to it, puts time in on it and -- anyway, i have

gone on. it's wasteful. it should end. everybody should -- i mean, i'd love to lead a parade. i'm not that good a parade leader, but to have it as -- it started, i don't know, 20 some odd years ago probably, something like that, 25. i'd love it as a practice to end for everybody so, therefore. >> barry, let me ask you this. i'm in violent agreement with you, but there are investors and analysts and others out there who say that guidance keeps companies accountable. what do you say to them? >> oh, please. that's absurd. i mean, it keeps companies accountable. it keeps companies doing dumb ass work look, you know, all companies say we run it for the long term, et cetera. and then you ask the question, what the hell are you doing spending time on meeting the --

beating a number that you put out, either three months ago or six months ago or a year ago what is the point in that? if you're -- if that really tells an investor something, investor, good luck to you look, i think that -- i actually think one of our companies is thinking about instead of guidance, not going to do, is thinking of monthly reporting. just put our figures out every month. there are some issues about competitive -- you know, about telling the competition things you might not want to tell them if you did that, but you know, that's healthy in that discussion one of my colleagues said, why don't you just put them out every day. let it be totally transparent. we look at the figures they can look at the figures make of them what they will, we're certainly not going to have an investor call every day to tell them about it. i mean, you -- but, by the way,

i think actually that kind of transparency is healthy. i don't mean every day, that's silly, but every month, kind of makes sense. this quarterly thing, truly, truly makes zero sense >> although there are probably ceos, barry, who would tell you the idea of having to deal more frequently with the investor world, that it already takes up so much of their time. i've talked to the ceos of companies that have been private or public or vice versa. the one thing be they say is the amount of time they have to deal with the investment already -- >> i'm not -- forgive me i'm not suggesting they deal more with the investment community. frankly, i used to be on the board of the washington post company which took from warren buffet a lot of -- a lot of sensible policies, and the washington post company published their figures

quarterly as they managed to do, never talked to an analyst ever and once a year had a meeting for multiple hours where they would explain their business during the time that the washington post company did that, which was concisistent fo don't know, 25, 30 years or something, quite steadily their stock rose and brought wealth to everyone so it's not like you have to spend more time. i'm not saying that you shouldn't spend time with your investors however you do it. once or twice a year, in complete kind of transparency of whatever it is you're doing, that's fine, but this -- to say that they'd spend more time? no to me, if you get rid of guidance you spend less time because you say properly, whether you do it in annual, biannual, or in any other forum of talking to your shareholders, you give them more depth, more

breadth, more sensibility about the business than you can in fooling around with models that are based on a phony premise you cannot predict the future, full stop. >> that's perfect, barry, because that's how i was going to start because predictions about the future, especially about the future future are hard. that's what yogi berra said. the perfect media company for the future from someone like you who knows how to put things together and have done it so many times in the past trying to figure out what if you have theme parks what if you don't have theme parks? what if you do have a broadband business that's pretty solid what if you got into streaming what if you got mobile who's -- for lack of a better example, take comcast, at&t and disney for this new future we're looking at, who's got the right mix? what would you be doing? what would you get rid of? what would you add how would you approach the

future >> oh, god first of all, you take the three of them, disney? disney's everlastingly good. sure, they're investing money in streaming and uphill road for sure to establish it anywhere close to netflix and prime or amazon that's tough but they've had early success with it. whether on a dollar basis in the first -- in the first few years you can't count basically. there's no point in counting, other than are you getting a lot of stocks. don't look at the p&ls this is a ten year plus concept, which is they have to deal directly with the consumer so they've got the assets. theme parks are coming back and they're a great business that's fine. comcast on the other hand does deal directly with the consumer through broadband and that's

their great strength they're nicely hedged, so to speak, if you can call it a hedge that way in terms of programming with all of you people and all of nbc. and i think they've got a very good idea to get into streaming as against all the other players of saying, let's do an advertiser based streaming for all sorts of reasons it's less of an investment and it's an alternative concept. i think it's a shrewd concept. it's, by the way, not shoving all of your little stuff onto the middle of the table. but i think that's prudent comcast is going to be a strong company forever, partly -- i mean, partly because of the business that was built on cable that then transmitted to broadband. partly because it's got truly great management the robert family, at&t on the other hand -- >> hey, barry, i wanted to -- >> yes, andrew what

>> i wanted to just ask you -- bring the conversation back to your business for one second, which is the last time you were on our air you talked about the fact that you used to spend $5 billion forex paid yeah in terms of advertising and that it wouldn't be more than $1 billion this year. has that changed at all in terms of your thinking given the reopening and some people's expectation that it might be faster >> i'm not quite sure i understand if you are talking about the spending primarily we do with google >> yeah. >> well, look, you know, google is a monopoly in advertising, total monopoly in the rest of the world, close to it in the u.s. and if you're in an internet business that depends upon consumers finding you, you have got to pay google, and over the years google -- we've all thrived in it, by the way, so it's not a terrible thing, but

over the years google has continued to do what monopolists do, they have continued to squeeze the pipe so your ability to get free traffic every year diminishes and you have to pay more and more for it. that is the fact of that life. i think eventually there has to be regulation that's going to not reset that but put the playing field on certainly a little more level basis. are we going to stand at the same level in the past we have in the future? i do not believe so. again, there are many things that come out of a crisis and one of the things that come out of it is that you really do get to assess things in a different way or in a way absent of, well, i'm just grinding towards 15 or 20% or whatever it is growth one of the things is to say, we need direct traffic to our businesses that's what we need and that's

what we're going to strive for and we're going to try and get out of this auction mania that we're all -- not all basically there are two players in travel advertising, us and booking.com. we bet against each other. the game is rigged to get us to do so. i think we'll do less of it. >> barry, also talking about social media platforms and other big tech companies curious if you'd weigh in on the debate about free speech on facebook and the steps that mark zuckerberg has taken in terms of keeping the platform at least not censoring the president relative to the position jack dorsey has taken on twitter. who are you with >> i respect them both i've long said that i thought that mark zuckerberg when he said that he would not want to regulate political, excuse me, speech, so incredibly hard to do most political speech, most

political advertising, negative advertising is a stretch of the truth anyway and getting into the business of doing that i think is probably -- extremely difficult, if not impossible to do. i thought it is principled position on his, which he's been articulating for several years, i thought made a lot of sense and i think does make sense. i think it's plaque particular on the other hand, when there are -- when there's information that is -- insights violence, does other truly antisocial things in the case of twitter saying that they were going to put advisories on donkey kong, our president's crazo tweets, and destructive ones recently for sure, i thought that was a

good principled stand. i think that's smart i think, by the way, facebook, i don't think their policy -- i'm not absolutely certain about this i don't think their policy is absolute i think if there's violent stuff on facebook, i would hope that they would cove their policy to do the same thing, but as far as general speech, that's the life of the internet and, you know, you ask -- if you give anybody voice, some of that voice is going to be nasty. some of that voice is going to be things you don't want to hear about yourself god knows anybody who goes on a slack channel or on a channel that their employees use is going to read things about them that are going to make them angry and hopefully not reactionary. we had a town hall meeting and after it, there's a whole scroll of things you read, hundreds and hundreds of comments and

whatever most of them interesting and positive and certainly some negative my favorite one was -- and i can't say it, but you can do it, which is screw off, the better word -- not better word, harsher word, screw off and die. and i thought, okay, i'm not going to exactly deal with that, but, again, you put -- you put stuff out for comment or you give people voice, some of it's not going to be stuff you want to hear. such is life get over it, as they say >> hey, barry. elon musk is on the front page of the wall street journal today because he says he thinks amazon needs to get broken up potentially. you just said google you think is a monopoly. do you think they need to get broken up? >> no, i don't so, i mean, i really like elon he's -- at least he's human.

he's excessive and all of that, but my golly what he has accomplished but i think there needs to be regulation i think when you get to monopoly status, amazon is not a monopoly, and -- what would you break them up into i think that's dumb. but when you are -- when you have a monopoly status, you do need regulation because there's no -- you know, it's physics monopoly, you act like a monopoly one way or the other. that is pure stuff, meaning it ain't going to go any other way. that needs regulation. sensible regulation obviously. i don't believe that things should be regulated. by the way, i grew up in a

regulated business i grew up in broadcasting when you owned television stations in the analog world that were licensed by the government and you were afraid that they'd be taken away from you, which they could be, unless you, quote, behaved. there was a fairness doctrine, which i would like us to reinstate, which said you had to have two points of view if you were going to use the public air waves. now all of this stuff has become public so those -- that training i think was very productive and sensible so, anyway -- stop me because i could go on. >> barry, before we let you go, just wanted to get your thoughts on -- you have always been outspoken on politics and on very controversial issues in this country, and we are clearly at some form of an inflection point given the protests and

unrest in this country it seems like companies and ceos are being more outspoken about this issue than they've ever been before. how outspoken should or can they be >> well, they are being -- by the way, before i get to that, i do want to sayone thing. it's one of the things that i -- and i'm doing it -- obviously i have a vested interest in travel, but one of the things that people -- the problem right now is that people are afraid to fly. until people are going to fly interna international internationally, nationally, life is not going to get vibrant again. what i don't understand why don't airlines tell everybody that getting in a plane and not social distancing, because you can't social distance, but assuming you wear a mask, which i think of course you're going to wear a mask on a plane, being in the plane, the air circulates

15 to 20 times every hour. you couldn't be in a safer fresh air environment than on an airplane as against being in any enclosed space where that doesn't happen and that's been true for -- airplanes for quite a while now. i'm just shocked that people -- airlines don't get out there and say, you know what, given the circumstances, that's safe sorry. that's my -- my -- my seminot commercial forex paid yeah but it is that i really think people have got to reassess their risk profiles in terms of getting out, getting in airplane anyway, to the question, i think what you're seeing, the hope is is that it's just not a one-time thing. it's not a white guilt thing that is getting these companies,

individuals, et cetera to give voice at this particular point in time. it's great that it's happening the question is what happens three, six, nine, 12 months from today when the next crisis about this comes i'mmazed that the coronavirus becomes yesterday's news hopefully we're thawing out naturally and whatever, but i'm really hopeful that this is not this one-time incident generated moment and that whatever plans companies do are not designed to cauterize the moment, not that they shouldn't try and do that, but the work should be designed to make stuff really long term, and the thing that companies can do -- not the only thing the thing that companies can do

is dealing at the top of the funnel, hiring companies have to do better at hiring minorities. companies have done pretty well on gender. they've not done very well on hiring i think that's the issue anyway, sorry i gave an example. >> no, no, no. and let's just stick with this for one more moment, which is i think part of the issue and the question, we're going to be talking to doug mcmillan and he runs the brt in addition to his job at walmart how -- i hate to say it, some of this is political, meaning it requires policy to change, political policy to change, and how engaged you think that ceos can or should be and how outspoken? you've been outspoken on issues, much more, frankly, thatten a lot of others. >> i think it's the responsibility of somebody who's got responsibility for an

organization to be out there saying what they think and given that these companies are so overwhelmingly run by decent, thoughtful, nondonkey kong folk, i this i they shouink they shoue out there displaying their humanity, and also, yes, playing a role politically you know, there are many shades of gray here on the spectrum, and -- i don't know. i only be think that this period, you'd like to think that this particular moment is going to be more enduring of change

than previous ones there seems to be -- and, again, it's right now in the moment, you can't judge it a year from now we can make a judgment it does seem though -- i mean, look, you've devoted, i don't know, i guess a week or so to talking about these issues, more than i've ever seen. >> right. >> so maybe. >> barry diller, it's a privilege and pleasure to spend time with you. you are candid and your insight and your provocative thoughts this morning have helped all of us and we appreciate it very, very much. we look forward to talking to you again. thanks, barry. >> stay safe, everyone talk to you soon. >> you, too. we are approaching 8 a.m. on the east coast and we've been watching the futures ahead of the jobs report. this morning there have been green arrows across the board. the dow is indicated up by 320 points that comes after the dow is up 3.5% just in the first four

trading days of this week. we're going to start this hour with where we've been for much of the week asking the country's biggest corporate leaders for help in finding solutions for help in racial inequality in america. this morning the business roundtable is announcing the business roundtable to take on that issue through education, health care, finance and criminal justice solutions and it includes many of the executives that we've been speaking to this week. joining us right now is the chairman of the business roundtable, walmart ceo doug mcmillan additionally doug is going to be addressing 10,000 walmart associates today about the steps his company is taking to address racial inequality as well. doug, thank you for being with us today >> good morning, becky >> let's talk first of all about what the business roundtable is doing. this is a big move we've heard kind of hints at this from several people, the guests that we've spoken with this week. tell us what this undertaking includes.

>> we've been working together over the last few days to formulate a plan what we see as a moment here, a moment where we can make a bigger difference. as you would know and many of our viewers today would know, these companies represented in the brt are all working every day and have been probably through the history of their company certainly in recent times to make a difference as it relates to diversity and inclusion and do good work within their companies that continues to accelerate we can talk more about that if you want to. there's a moment here where the country is experiencing horrendous pain as a result of what happened with george floyd's murder and all of us seeing that on tv, but we all know that was just one isolated event of many. this isn't about one event, this is what's happened in our country and what's happening today. the question is how can we work

together to make a lasting change happen. how should we go about it? where can we make a difference conceptually there's a vin diagram with our overlap in it and our country's touch, systems in the country, complex systems, that result in collectively inequities those systems that we've identified are the financial system, health care system, criminal justice system. what we've been discussing these last few days is how can we come together, diagnose what's happening within those systems that's resulting in this inequity, resulting in a lack of fairness and how could we bring forward policy change recommendations, incorporate change within our own businesses and deliver different results which is what we're trying to do several members have been on talking about these areas. some of the leaders agree to be part of the group. they're forming working teams on

each one of these systems and will begin work starting now and have our first meeting together next week to come up with some suggestions. >> hey, doug, i know it's very early days and nothing has really been solidified yet the teams haven't had a chance to get down to business on any of this. for the cynics that say, okay, we hear talk about this and then it dissipates, give us an example or two, concrete example, of a real difference that you think you can make in one of these areas >> two committees that were already existing as it relates to education and work force that mary leads and arne has responsibility for health care in the committee he's been leading. those two committees have not gone back and looked at this through the lens of equity injustice and thought about the impact of this system on people of color, for example, with that kind of focus. so when those two committee examples, that's the approach

we'll take the other two areas, the financial system was in the governance committee jamie dimon is going to take that on with robert smith and look at it in that way in the case of criminal justice randall is going to take that on and come back with recommendations on how we hire people that were formerly incarcerated, nonviolent offenders to help with re-entry. what change from a cultural point of view needs to happen within law enforcement agencies. i think what you can expect is within each one of these areas, a clickdown that develops in time so we can describe to you which specific components we want to drive change through take education and mary's work we've been focused on k-12 education, work force, those can continue and how can we look at those three components of education and make sure there's more equity in the system, we're generating more fairness within

changes and within our companies. brt's more than 200 of the largest companies in merica, and partnering with government and other entities to drive more systemic change. >> you are also meeting with more than 10,000 associates from walmart today. what are you going to be talking to them about? what changes are you making at your company >> i think you've been hearing all week and it's true with us, too, our associates are hurting. our black associates, african-american associates, all of our associates are experiencing this pain that we've all been dealing with and coping with and at times it's hard to even put it into words so we've been doing a lot of listening and today we're going to talk about what we're doing inside the company as it relates to recruiting and hiring and development and things like that we're also going to be announcing over a five-year period $100 million going to invest towards racial equity injustice within walmart as a

way to put some money behind the efforts here through a walmart lens brt is separate. and we'll be sharing those things with them, acknowledging the event that's happened but more than just that, acknowledging that there's more that we can do to me, this all boils down to we've been wanting to do good work and we've been making progress but we now have this moment here where everyone's attention is on these issues and we'd like to surge withi walmart and more broadly in a way that it results in lasting change >> what will you be spending that money on, $100 million over five years to do what specifically >> yeah, it'll core spobd to the four systems i mentioned earlier. making grants at community level that increase access to capital, help people have access to education. we've done a lot, for example, in recent times with school lunch programs we need to do everything we can do to help make the educational

system in every community around the country more successful and more effective money will be going into basically the same four systems that i described earlier >> hey, doug, what -- i would say week, but what has your month, what has your quarter, what have the last several months been like when you've been dealing with this pandemic that you've had to pivot so quickly to try and figure out how your stores can stay open. you keep your employees safe, your customers safe and then to be dealing with this what's it like >> it's been challenging i've got a great team. my peers feel the same. walmart and the leadership team are outstanding. they're basically solving the problems that's what it's like, you get up every morning and you're faced frequently with a new set of challenges to take on we just work together to figure out real time what are we going to change, how are we going to

pivot? how do we keep our associates safe how do we serve customers better is there a way to help others? with this latest series of protests and the looting that took place, it's the same thing. we're working together to solve problems and try to encourage each other i was talking to somebody yesterday. the attitude we all need to have is it's a privilege to be in a place to make a difference i wouldn't want to be living in this world right now without the opportunity to help other people, and we've been put in a position where we can so i'm grateful for that. >> hey, doug, maybe tough question your senator, tom cotton, has called for military action across the country as you know, protesters and many african-americans have condemned his comments do you support them? >> i hope we're past this, andrew the last couple of nights have been pretty quiet. we did experience some looting

on a few nights this past week, and, you know, law enforcement's been doing their best to try and keep everybody safe. we certainly support peaceful protests but we don't think that people need to express themselves with looting, obviously. i'm hoping that we're past that period of time and that's not the way that i would like to see things approached. >> doug, let's talk more about the business roundtable. and, again, if you could kind of dig into some of these issues and i realize that the health care group was already kind of set up and running i realize that some of these other ways have already been there. what do you think is the most important way to go about addressing this? what's the consensus you get from your peers at the business roundtable, other ceos where you all say, okay, here is how we put our back into this here is how we do this

are you going to employ lobbyists, use your lobbyists to make this happen, too? >> we'll work together the ceos as well as the teams that represent each one of the companies to try and bring it altogether the first thing that goes through my mind is we need to listen we need to listen to a diverse group of people. we need to make sure that we're hearing them and that we're finding creative ways to drive change a lot of things we've tried in the past haven't been as successful as what we ultimately need them to be. i think there should be a period of time where we're gathering information, looking for those leverage points that if the policy were shaped in this way, it would have a different outcome. this is one complex system you could think of it like a mathematical algorithm we have to tweak the variables so the outcomes are different. each of the leaders, we're thinking of it that way. obviously jamie knows a lot about the financial system mary's doing a great job of assuming the position of

education and work force development. these people care deeply about these. they and their teams and the small group that we set up will be listening, looking for new solutions, trying to find what works, leveraging all the information we can come up with and then we'll turn it into a plan we'll do the best we can of sharing that plan and creating a plan that's simple enough to execute. one of the things i've definitely learned working at walmart is if you want to execute at scale, it has to be simple if you want to change a complex system, it has to be simple. we have to go through this period of time where we absorb information, deal with complexity because these systems are complex or we would have already changed them and then once we have that diagnosis, communicate it in a simple way and get on. >> part of the learning experience is trying things that ultimately don't work. you just mentioned that there have been things that you guys have tried in the past that maybe weren't as successful as you thought. could you share one of those lessons? >> well, i'm just thinking

generally. charitable giving is important and we should do it. it demonstrates our heart in many programs, but that's not enough and this conversation's got to be longer term and more lasting. i'm not saying that we should wait years for change, but what i'm saying is when we have events like this, sometimes there's a surge of energy and passion and emotion and people will give money, which, again, is good, but then we get distracted and we move on to something else and the lasting change doesn't happen because we didn't do the work to get through complexities what i want to be different this time is for all of us to take the time, think deeply through these issues and make changes. i think it'll take more than just business. it will certainly take more than big business we're going to need partnership from government at all levels. we need all business to change and we hope that our voice can help influence that. >> doug, want to thank you for being with us on this morning. we look forward to seeing the

progress you all are making and hope you'll come back to give us updates along the way, too >> thank you all >> thank you joe? >> great thank you. coming up, truly critical jobs report, both wall street and main street watching we could be about to see what could be the low point in unemployment affected by the coronavirus. before that, a first on cnbc interview with the ceo at the forefront of how work itself is changing slack ceo stewart butterfield. not to imply you were acngslki at home. first quarter is off you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc ♪ ♪

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we do have the jobless claims coming up in 14 minutes time that's the monthly jobless claims for the month of may. we'll be watching that very closely, too andrew >> great thank you, becky as we approach the recent monthly jobs report we're joined by the head of a company that's transforming the way we work that is slack. the digital communications platform saw quarterly revenue topping $200 million for the very first time. its revenue growth wasn't as fast as many had hoped the stock is coming under pressure this morning. joining us is slack ceo stewart butterfield. walk us through the last quarter. help us understand what you're seeing in this environment at this point >> we're seeing everything

the most important is the number of customers coming in new organizations using slack, 90,000 more people started in q one than in all of last year we also had 12,000 net new customers for the quarter compared to 5,000 the previous quarter and 5,000 the one before that 2.5 times as many. we'll realize the benefits of that over the next year and probably the year following so there's a very strong tailwind what we don't know right now is how strong the headwind is when our customers feel pain when there is layoffs, when there's bankruptcies of course, when there's a hiring freeze, that has an affect on our top line so we're going to have some pretty strong tailwinds, and strong headwinds however, we're not on a one-way path to the dark ages. as the recovery begins when our customers are feeling a little bit better, we'll also feel better on that side. really strong signals for the

year ahead >> how much do you think this has accelerated your growth? do you believe that that growth has been either front loaded or pulled forward in a way? >> yeah. i think it has been pulled forward, but the degree of awareness in the market, the degree of receptivity means that is not to the detriment of forward reporters. everyone has been accelerated down this path by six months, by 18 months, by 3 years, by 5 years. that's fantastic not just for us but by the broader industry. a lot of the inertia are the adoption of new technologies that's kind of broken through. the long-term impact of this change on the way to work is generational in the same way email was, in the same way the first wave of i.t. was. >> what do you think the path to profitability was at this point and how has that changed

>> it hasn't changed at all. we've gotten to cash flow, break even at the high end for this year that's looking like a pretty low bar. obviously the -- there's a lot to unpack. one of the things we wanted was some flexibility around helping customers who are in some distress here. obviously we have customers in every industry 120,000 customers around the world. every geography. every industry every size some of them are really hurting. allowing them to rework payment terms for annual, quarterly or monthly giving some concessions there was the reason we withdrew guidance for billings this year. we guided up on revenue. we want the flexibility to earn that goodwill and help customers out during this period i think we'll see how the short term is. there is obviously a great

degree of uncertainty there. long run this is a fantastic set of changes for us. >> i don't know if you heard what barry diller said he thinks everybody should get rid of guidance. we could have that debate on another day. did want to get your thoughts on this partnership of sorts that you're now having with amazon and using aws and chime in part as the video service and wondered what you think that's going to do to the dynamic and relationship i know you're going to remain open for everybody, but to the zooms of the world and others who are -- who have video chat and other products given this new relationship >> yeah. no impact there. to be clear, we are a zoom customer at slack. we have some voice and video functionality buil into slack this is not to compete with cisco, teams, this is for calling internal to slack. what we've done is taken aws's

capabilities, underlying capabilities that power chime and using those to power our video technology it's not the end user. and we have had policy of whatever tools our customers use, want to make their experience with those tools better and we'll continue to work with everyone >> and just to put a fine point on that because i think there was some confusion when people read that press release originally in terms of these various partners, whether it's zoom or others, do you think there's going to be a day where you start to incorporate and build some of these products into your own product and, therefore, compete with them? this is obviously what's happened over the years with other large and successful technology companies >> that is what' historically, and i think a lot of people's ideas and imagination around what we're going to see in the future are shaped by what we're seeing in the last 20 years. there's a category called unified communications that pushes people to think that that's a natural extension for us we don't think it is

we think about the next 20 years, we think about what's most likely, we have a brand-new category channel based messaging platform selling that has challenges because it's new it's different if we want to sell video services, we have to compete against organizations that make that choice. >> stewart, want to thank you. we've got to run by the way, that background, what's the real background today? what's the real background >> that is the window two walls behind me. i don't get the good part of the attic, my fiance did. >> great to see you. >> becky, over to you? >> heads or tails. when i come back -- when we come back, the labor department's may jobs report the national unemployment rate is expected to hit nearly 20%. we will get the numbers and the instant reaction wall street is higher ahead of those exct nbepeedumrs you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

the state is entering phase three of its reopening plan. now it's worth noting that universal's parks generated 5.5% of comcast parent condition's revenue in the calendar year last year in comparison to disney's parks with more than 1/3 of its 2019 revenue much more is on the line for disney full disclosure, comcast is the parent company of this network guys, back over to you.

>> julia, that is true thank you. coming up, may nonfarm payrolls. our expert panel is ready to weigh in yes, liesmania and furmania. fasr and stay asleep longer fasr great sleep comes naturally with sleep3. only from nature's bounty. but inside every etf... there are untold hours of careful construction... infinite "what ifs?" and contingency plans. creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. tap untapped potential. and strengthen confidence in you. flexshares. powered by over a century of investment expertise before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

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morning and week we're up another 300 points this morning. we had a good number, surprising number from adp on wednesday we went from 9 million lost to 2 and change we're looking for 8 now. wondering whether it come firms the adp. it's time for the number we want to go to steve liesman who has that number for us steve? >> reporter: i don't have the number just yet, joe there it is. employment rises by 2.5 million. i'm reading that right payrolls rose by 2.5 million the unemployment rate declined to 13.3% this is a huge gain, a huge up side beat for this jobs report improvements in the labor market with a limited resumption of economic activity have been curtailed in march and april due to the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to maintain it in may employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality construction, education, health

services and retail trade. by contrast, employment in government continues to decline sharply. let me see if i can give you some details unemployment declining by 1.4% to 13.3. the number of unemployed persons fell 2.1 million to 21 they had an upward revision reflecting the past coronavirus effects. major work groups here unemployment declined in may for adult men. 11.6%. women, 13.9. whites 12.4 and blacks 20.9. i'm going to the industry sector here, joe. got to get down to the so-called b1 tables in a second and i can tell you where the job gains were here more specifically. okay so looking at it, we lost 19 -- let me just check this out here. mining lost 20,000 jobs. that's a big one here. gains of -- let's see, where are the big gains.

104,000 in construction of buildings. diana olick has been building. specialty trade contractors up 225. not seeing here nondurable goods. haven't gotten to the service sector the service sector rose by 2.4 million. those big job gains came from retail trade >> yeah. all right. >> 367,000 this is really curious here. >> markets like this quite a bit, steve and i think we need to -- >> yeah. >> i mean, it almost -- i don't know whether to feel great or to feel bad for economic forecasters. i'm really not sure where to put all of my emotion right now. let's get to our jobs panel. >> reporter: real quick, joe, i want to say -- >> any positive is shocking. i thought losing 5 was going to be a big up side surprise and we heard maybe this couldn't possibly surprise us more than adp. does this surprise you more than adp? let's get to the panel let's get to our jobs panel for

some reaction. all of the furmaniacs have been waiting to see jason furman. he looks better. he got out of his pod storage bin and is into a room jason furman michael strain, american enterprise institute he had to get a nice back drop after what happened. david valan, citi's private bank chief investment officer, rick santelli and mike santoli. i'm going to start because it's easie easiest, that's what you were warning us about, there might be some kids in the shot and there are. you know what, it's a better shot, jason. i've got to tell you, i want to give you credit and kudos for saying this in that political piece. it was like two weeks ago and you said this is going to be like a natural disaster and have a quick snap back. you have to be surprised by this number, aren't you, jason? >> this number is higher than i would have predicted

most daily data we have for the economy though show that it hit bottom around april 15th and has been partially rebounding since then i thought the employment would lag a little bit more than it has. it's hard to predict right now because the gross flows are so large. lots and lots of people are losing jobs. lots and lots of people are gaining jobs trying to get the net of that is hard. the one thing that is a little bit discouraging in this report, there's a lot to be encouraged about in this report, is the number of people on temporary layoff fell by 2.7 million in may. that means the entirety of the job gains was people being recalled and in some sense we'd still have a very, very high unemployment point. >> you made that point you made that point that the easy lifting would come first and then it gets harder and harder to bring back some other people michael, did you predict a positive number today? >> oh, no, i didn't predict a

positive number today. i did think that we would see bottom hit this month. i expected a positive number next month this is happening a little faster than i would have expected when i look into the details of the report, i see large job gains in leisure and hospitality. large job gains in retail trade. these are sectors where people engage in a lot of in person interaction and it looks like sectors where people engage in in person interaction are coming back maybe a month faster than i would have thought sounds like a month faster than jason would have thought they're coming back. lockdown orders apparently have an effect. they've been lifted. when you lift the lockdown orders, people go back and do things that require interacting with another human being to do we're seeing employment gains in the sectors. this is great news for the labor market. >> straight across david, what do you think >> well, this is really encouraging. if anyone needed confirmation about the nature of this shock and what it means for markets, we've been looking for the last

nine weeks at markets going up you've been wondering why that is this is exactly why. this is an unusual short, sharper session and now what we're seeing is that people are going to get back reemployed relatively quickly, at least in these sectors that are most impacted and people are going to begin spending again we track a lot of the data you know, every week about how much people are driving. we're now back to almost 80% of driving miles and we could be in the next, you know, six or seven weeks back to 100% of how people drove in terms of miles week over week in this past december. so if all of that takes place, it really justifies the market sharp rebound. that's why we like the cyclical stocks so much now we want people to move to more of the cyclicals because there is more move in the market. >> going clockwise, santoli. going down to you now. it doesn't seem fair that the market doesn't do what it's supposed to do then we find out it was doing what it was supposed to do, mike, right?

>> yeah. >> we have to pay attention to what's happened in the past. >> look, there was a wide set of potential outcomes the market in the last few weeks, it seems investors felt they weren't properly allocating for a smooth and strong and quicker reopening dynamic and, therefore, didn't have enough of that kind of cyclical leverage in their portfolios. they've been buying it and, yes, this sort of confirms that at least for now the optimists kind of hold the floor. a little bit less of a disconnect arguably between the markets. i don't know how the ebb and flow of data is going to go. the other piece is the markets implicitly have been betting recently that the stimulus efforts in place on the fed and on the fiscal side could be enough not only enough, maybe more than enough in some respects. >> mike, it goes from the stimulus is funny money that just puts a big air pocket under the stock market to the stimulus might actually help the underlying economy i'm afraid to let santelli out

here you're here to talk to us. go for it, rick. no eye told you sos. none of that no floating. just go for it >> no, no, no, no, no. i would never do that, joe i could say it all in pretty three words. do you have any idea what it is? jobs, jobs, jobs we can pontificate how the stock market is ahead of the economy we can pontificate we're back to normal there will never be normal again. we could argue all of the experts said we had to be out of our minds 2 1/2 months ago to think about buying equities especially when everything is going to get all nasty again down the road a little bit, but in the end the markets really always know best they're not always right because the next day they could have big corrections, but at the end of the day i was really hoping you would ask me what my thoughts were on the jobs because i would have taken last month's number, round it tojust 20 million and i would have taken 1/4 of that

and that would have been my guess. so i would have been up 4 million jobs i would have lost, especially if we had the game show rules >> steve -- >> joe, can i be negative. >> can you what? can you what >> can i be negative >> yeah, we're used to that. go on. >> an unemployment rate of 13.3% really is terrible. >> yeah. >> the peak unemployment rate in the great recession was 10% so we are 1/3 higher in terms of unemployment relative to the peak during the great recession. so we have a lot of work to do the fiscal policy that congress put in place, economic recovery packages have done a lot of good we're going to need sustained economic recovery support from congress for months and months and months to come, particularly in the fall. so this is -- what this means is

that we got the timing wrong we expected it would bottom out in may and recover in june instead it bottomed out in april and recovering in may. we're still in bad, bad shape. >> can i play along with michael? >> this is so good that kid is so cute. this is -- >> he's graduating from preschool today. big day for him. >> so good i can't believe you were hold up in that other place to avoid that this makes the whole shot. anyway, go ahead >> yeah. and then in terms of what the stimulus looks like that michael very properly said we need with a 13% unemployment rate, very low labor force participation, in some sense even higher than that, almost every sector gained jobs at local government local government lost 500,000 jobs 300,000 of those were layoffs in education. going into the fall our schools are going to have more expenses in order to have social distancing at the same time that

they're seeing budget cuts and layoffs that's crazy for the macro economy, that's crazy for education. so this report says not only do we need more because the unemployment rate is high, state and local needs to be a top priority because that's where we're still losing the jobs. >> just real quick, santoli. i mean, how much do we deserve today? we're up another 660 it's not like we haven't gone up 3 or 4,000 points. do you expect this to get -- do you expect this to get faded towards the end? >> it's never about what you deserve. it's pretty ruthless in this regard to essentially punish the people who just didn't quite get positioned enough for this type of -- i do think the thing to keep in mind, yesterday we had the largest ever volume in nasdaq composite on a down day for the nasdaq stocks. if people decide that the stuff to do right now is to further bet on a reopening and a catch up trade by all of this beating up retail and travel related

stuff, then you're selling microsoft to do that and the indexes don't do much of anything who knows how that push/pull really resolves itself that's the thing to keep in mind right here at these levels it's still down several percent from an all-time high. it's not as if you're ploughing new ground even though the market is looking through a lot of messy stuff in the interim. >> steve, what are you on, 12 across what's the clue? i'll try and give it -- are you actually doing work or a cross word puzzle? what were you doing there? we can't -- liesmaniacs want to hear from you. what have you got? >> i am doing some calculations here i'm going to make my last one right now. yeah, it's interesting okay so here's what happened. first of all, the big miss here, and i'll take blame for this, too, is we did not have, it would appear, additional firings. jason furman talked about the dynamic in the workplace

that's an important thing that i think a lot of economists were looking at they were looking at the jobless claims numbers it may be those jobless claims numbers are being double counted by refilings we'll talk about that next thursday and then what we had, we had a limited return to work of some people that we didn't catch in the anecdotal evidence i want to show you some of the data 367,000 people brought back in retail 225,000 brought back in specialty trade. sorry, 325 and 225 brought back in manufacturing the calculations i was doing was figuring, what percent of job losses was that. in all of those cases, about 16 or 17% brought back of the job losses, so, for example, we lost 2.2 million retail we brought back 369. so about 17% back. so what happened is the places that opened opened and we did not lose additional market so what that means, it brings

forward, i think, ultimately the economic recovery here it does mean outlying we won't have as much of a bounce later on, but it does bring it forward. i think it's ultimately good news. >> david balan sorry about that, david. >> it's okay, you can do that. this confirms something that we have to talk about the fact that we are in a new economic cycle the last one ended in february of 2020. we ended a cycle they have to build out to 2021 and 2022 parts of the economy will be

and it's in the pandemic it's different than regular. they're losing sight of the fact >> stick with the forecastor there's something else going on there and it may not be an l so that's great >> there are people talking about the l. i get it when you turn the breaker box off. you turn the breaker box back

on you move it slowly there's a v recovery stocks always cross the creek. no matter what type of move, whether it's 87, whatever. you always have these huge down moves that get major recoveries because stocks always over compensate if you want to talk about the economy, mike santoli always does a good job, yes, the economy isn't exactly the stock market but the stock market's where the money is and the checks come out if you're long and that's all that we're here to talk about. by the way third year bond yields are up. >> jason, you're quite a disciplinarian there it's worth it though and i'll let you go in a second. unless he wants to come on

>> the best way to guarantee we don't have a v-shaped recovery is be complacent. >> about the virus itself, too, santoli. >> how does the stock market know there's going to be a second wave or not >> it doesn't. if you are betting on a second wave or something that's going to short circuit this recovery dynamic, it's time until you're confirmed. until you can basically prove that point, until the evidence bears it out in the interim, the market is, as i said, going a little bit more towards the optimistic side of the probability spectrum. one thing to worry about maybe, this isn't today's business. when everybody believes that, that's not in the clear. i still think you have to cut into a lot of recity sid dual concern and caution and skepd at this civil. >> you have a lot of holdout there is a time when good news is in the market

we're up 590 i don't know when you sell on good news, but a lot of it is already there. steve? >> yeah. joe, i was going to say, i don't know if you remember, but i had my first bullish report on the high frequency data that i've been following earlier this week, on monday and tuesday is when that data turned in a way that we could say, hey, there's some green lights in the economy. my expectation here is this is about two weeks earlier than i would have expected in the sense that i didn't think that the data was going to pick up a return as fast as it happened. i thought it was going to be a couple weeks later and be picked up in the report that we'll get in june. that's going to be important i think what rick was talking about was a fascinating idea which is what is the pace now? i think santoli mentioned this this is an initial hop we got back 16%. if i can get back another 16, another 16, another 16, if we can keep it this pace, we can get back to normal in several

months but the question is did we get an initial pop of people coming back and then the pace of recovery slows yeah, you're right you talked about this for years, joe. the law of large numbers the more -- the bigger these numbers, the harder it is to come back. we'll have to watch this now i think santoli is going to talk about this idea of forecasting the future and how much better does it get. how fast >> rick, he's had so many expressions through your last soliloquy. what were you thinking when steve started out? he did do a green chute report, rick you were laughing. he did, right? >> yeah, yeah, no, hey, listen, it's not too late to join it's okay to trade and be long the market party we welcome all comers. remember, nobody's crystal ball is without fault we've heard from literally the brightest, the best, the most historic traders ever to walk the planet over the last couple

of months and all you armchair technicians and traders out there should feel happy because they didn't do very well so that means that we all can. nobody knows the future of the markets but i will tell you this, the market's been screaming pretty loud the last five weeks on which way it's going. it's just a a matter of who wano listen >> i think that's where we have to -- >> this is a lagging indicator >> when we look at -- >> go ahead, michael >> i don't agree, jason. >> we saw consumption data start to rise around april 15th, but you all are incredibly excited about an incredibly high unemployment rate. the easiest thing in the world was the first month or two of job growth when you turned the lights back on, people go back to their old jobs. >> right >> it will take a couple months before we understand how much wreckage there is in the

economy, how much reallocation there is in the economy. it's harder for people to find new jobs at new employers and new sectors, that's what you'll see the dynamic will be after the first initial months >> steve -- steve, why isn't it lagging? i think you were saying. >> it's not lagging because it really gives us a portrait of the psychology of what happened. and what happened is people came back sooner, businesses opened sooner than we thought it defied a little bit the high frequency data we've been watching maybe dan was watching other data that's fine. but it tells us the psychology that people are ready to come back, able to come back. the key thing to me that i want to know more about is the firing -- if rick is criticizing me for this, that's fine i'll take it this concern i've had about a second wave of firings and

layoffs, which was not going to be related to the shutdown, but to the knock-on economic effects of the shutdown. if this data is telling me that didn't happen, that is very prospective and telling of the future and it changes my mind about the outlook. >> michael, you wanted to talk about lagging versus leading >> yeah. i think the economy is changing so rapidly every week, even though these numbers are only three weeks, two weeks old, that's still a long time ago at this point and, you know, the unemployment rate is probably a half percentage point lower right now than it was when the survey week occurred so that's also good news i think about this recovery in two phases one phase, you lift the lockdown orders, you turn the economy back on. businesses rehigh wore workers

were temporarily laid off. that's what we're seeing now the second phase is businesses realizing their work force should be 80% of what it should be delivery services realizing they need way more workers. movie theaters realizing they need way fewer workers some industries shrinking. some industries expanding. that process of adjustment will take longer. i would expect the unemployment rate to keep ticking down rapidly. a few months from now we'll enter into that second phase when businesses are making harder decisions about the work forces they need and consumers settled in to new spending pat rn patterns it will look different than february, it's going to take months and months for that to work through the system. >> all right we have to end it there. >> not like we're hiring people to disinfect, scrub, clean,

clean businesses, there's a second wave of hiring coming >> hiring sounds like firing >> hiring! >> hiring. >> we have to go i like the fur maniacs michael, this is like a zoom thing, but the border doesn't light up when someone is talking. maybe we can add that. santoli, mike, thank you santelli, rick, thank you. and the head of leisman, thank you. i told you it would be a leis mania segment. a positive number. andrew >> thanks, joe big number, and a big number in the right direction. want to get over to jim cramer's first take on this number.

you can see the green on the screen >> it's a stupendous number. it's superb. many people thought this would be the historic beginning of the depression 20% layoff we would look back comparing it to 31 and 33 that's off the table i listened to the discussion, people saying whether it's lagging or leading who cares. the fact is we're back i think a lot of people felt that the layoffs would be permanent. it's obvious there's so much demand that people have to bring people back. when you look at the different sectors of who is hiring, the construction number is extraordinary. the housing business, it's true. the lower rates took off can we find fault? can we praise 13.5 you praise that when you are looking for 20

this is a great number for republicans, a great number for democrats. a great number for the country it lets me believe we can turn to some of the things that doug mcmillon was talking about with more confidence that it can happen without worrying about the idea that we'll be struggling with many new bankruptcies maybe we've seen a peak in those, too, with that 48% in the last month it's joyous. let's call it as it is, joyous >> jim, here's the question. we've been talking about the word rotation for the past two weeks. do you rotate out of the tech sector get into places like banks, cyclicals, industrials all these places that have been ultimately at least currentry unloved? >> i think the market was right. lots of people felt that the -- that this run we've had in the airlines and hospitality, the runs in boeing, that these were

all having no backbone to them it's like people telling me at the airline business, people want to fly. they believe in it barry diller when he talked about the safety of planes it's true. the office i'm in now is not as safe as a plane unless you're directly next to someone who is sick that's the same thing here i come back and say america wants to do things they want to hire people back and they want the country to open, this desire by the government to have nonessential and essential doesn't jive with what the business community wants. these rallies are right. i think wells fargo will look back and say what were we thinking how did we think things could be so bad jpmorgan at 140, then at 80. that is quizzical. but i would tell you other than jamie dimon, none of the executives i listened to felt

this could be the case it's stunning. i know it's an election year and you say it's stunning, there's nothing you can do nancy pelosi, i had her on last night. i think she would be equally as gratified that these numbers are where they are rather than where she felt they might be >> thanks, jim see you a bit on "squawk on the street." becky? >> let's get to another trusted market voice on the may jobs report kate moore, blackrock's head of strategy for the global allocation team. stunning numbers much stronger than anticipated now what >> i'm glad i wasn't trying to dissect those realtime today i found them confusing now what in terms of thinking about the equity market? i know some of the speakers a moment ago were talking about the rally in the hotel, leisure, entertainment and back to

regular activity and, you know, i think that we're going to see that for the next little bit as people come outside and as there's more enthusiasm for returning back to normal but it's too soon to say this is the longer term trend. i would note that we are trading at 19 times 2021 consensus earnings so the equity market is not particularly cheap we need to continue to have a long-term focus on high quality, free cash flow generating companies. despite the move we've seen this week in the equity market we shouldn't extrapolate that out to the leadership for the foreseeable future in general, stick with the quality theme. >> kate, thank you so much for being with us today. sorry to cut this short. we have run out of time. the numbers caught us off guard and we ran longer with these things it's great to see you. we'll have you back again soon just a half hour ago, we got the jobs report coming in with a

gain of 2.5 million jobs when we were looking for a deline clinef 8.3 million. the unemployment rate is down to 13.3%, versus the 19.5% anticipated. still rough numbers but so much better than anticipated. as a result, the dow futures up by 625 points. have a great weekend we'll see you back here. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber live from separate locations it's a stunner by any stretch of the imagination. the jobs number for may, 2.5 million jobs added, not subtracted as leisure, hospitality comes to the rescue accounting for half the gains. we'll hear from the president in an hour. fut chuures do suggest a breakot