refiner. >> tyson, ctn, saw some unusual activity bought it before the show. >> and what's your final trade for us >> square. square received their bank charter. they will become square financial services next year lots of optionalty there you can buy fractional squares >> thanks, everybody thanks for watching. "the exchange" is now. >> thank you, scott, and hi, everybody. welcome to another frenzied day in the markets really capture everything that's played out here. we have reports the president is eyeing a trillion-dollar infrastructure package, trial events on a covid treatment. that sent the dow to 847 points at the highs not the end of the story, though stocks lost a lot of those gains midday when fed chair powell said, quote, if the market function continues to improve, then we are happy to slow or even stop the purchases,

referring to a lot of asset purchases the fed has been doing lately markets did not like that. we started to drift off those highs and we hit session lows as beijing announced it is shutting down all schools due to a covid resurgence the dow was up only 48 points as a result as you can see the buying has picked up and we're back up more than 600 points. definitely a roller coaster so far today. let's get the latest now from dominic chu. hi, dom. >> the volatility you just pointed out in the markets, one thing we have to point out is just how far away we are from record highs in the s&p 500 that we saw earlier in the spring we were here, and right now we're still down about 8% in terms of record high levels. however, just in a bit of positivity, remember down here we had lost 188 s&p 500 points on thursday amid some market volatility we've now gotten back roughly, you can see, about 130 of those points as well one thing to mention here. what's happening with retail a huge record number for retail

sales in america this past month. that's lending some strength to the consumer discretionary etf ticker up 20%. you can see some of the smaller ones up 2.5%, and 14% gains in upscale retailer, nordstrom as well, so big moves there we'll top it off with a high ipo of the day that is royalty pharma it's priced at $28 per share that is the ipo price, so a big move higher as ipo demand seems to continue. we'll keep an eye on this particular stock, kell back to you. >> that's quite a headline >> it was a huge move and there is a pretty good prescription for it, so i think there is still a pretty big demand for ipos out there >> absolutely, dom thanks very much fed chair jay powell did warn that the economy faces a downturn with uncertainty about a timing and strength for a recovery for all headlines, let's bring

in steve liesman steve? >> jay powell in the first two days of his testimony on the hill acknowledged the better data, including the retail sales report that made a surprise to the upside but as you said, he continued to express concern about the uncertainty that's out there, including concern about a second wave of the virus and a long recovery in which millions may still find trouble getting back to work. >> a large number of people who will not be able to immediately go back to work at their old job or even in their old industry. there will be a significant group that's left over even afr we get the employment numbers. i do think they'll be hard pressed to find work and they're going to need support. they'll have unemployment insurance for a period, but that's something i'm looking at, is what kind of support will they need. >> powell did suggest that under some circumstances, they could stop or halt those purchases

they're making and lending, but that was not the operative idea that he was suggesting he's really suggested unwavering support of the fed and providing loans and making asset purchases. he urged congress to do more as well some concern from senators about the fed doing too much and how it would run off its current balance sheet, and powell also talked about his concern about the federal reserve distorting the corporate bond market. >> i don't see us as wanting to run through the bond market like an elephant doing things and snuffing out price signals and things like that we want to be there if things turn bad in the economy. >> kelly, what we don't know is what would turn off these programs in the federal reserve. we know what turned them on, that's the coronavirus that's the negative numbers we've had on the economy but it's unclear whether the fed or what construct or tests the federal reserve would use to slow or stop them.

>> we also spoke with vanguard with the notion that maybe this next fiscal package should include some kind of stabilizers. in other words, if they don't fall fast enough, maybe you do some support for those that are jobless or whatever form that would take, and if the economy is better than expected, some of those would fall off more quickly. i don't know if there's any chance it becomes reality. >> i think it's emblematic of the idea the fed went in with both feet and there was a cry from all over the country, including from politicians for the fed to do as much as it could as quickly as it could it did not em bbed in all the programs to shut them off. for example, if the markets were to be functioning better, the fed is not lending above market, for example, or not buying corporate bonds at the market price, it's buying bonds at the market price and it's obviously lower than

themselves this whole bond market of how it gets in, how it gets out and what triggers either is unclear. it's something the fed will have to deal with a little bit more as some of the these questions from the congressmen may be on the increase >> and it's only there because of the fed support in the first place. >> exactly >> i understand people say the bond market is so much better right now they shouldn't do the purchases, but it's only better because of that. they can't kick the ball down the road forever, or maybe they could. >> it's a tricky question, kelly, and it's one that's happened before where the fed said it would do something, had a great reaction toward the direction the fed wanted it to go powell said today, we have to do what we said we're going to do, and obviously the fed began today buying up those corporate bonds through that index process we talked about yesterday. >> yeah. interesting. steve, thanks very much. steve liesman with all the headlines there. i'm now joined by steven staff lee, chief economist and

from j.p. morgan an. michael kushma steve, i'll start with you are you concerned about the data or the long-term implications? >> i think it's a little of both the economy is coming back a little quicker than we first thought and getting these programs up and running has been difficult for the feds for example, we're still waiting for the first loans to be made for the main street facility, and it's been three months hopefully there will be large takeup and it will be very helpful, but time is ticking, and if they don't get this thing rolling pretty soon, you know, the economy, i think, is going to be as close to back to normal as we're likely to get for a while. >> you know, that said, and we've got a bunch of data, stephen, this morning. the retail sales were better than expected on the month, but if you go through where we are year on year, clothing and

accessories down 60% in may, electronics down 30% there's some bright spots but these levels are horrible, still. >> of course, and remember where we were in the beginning of may. most places were still locked down, and the bulk of them started to reopen a little bit over the course of the month, but even by the end of the month, there were still plenty of retailers that were still closed in their physical stores. i think you'll continue to see improvement in june. i think what we've learned is the first stages of the recovery have come faster and more forcefully than we thought of course, some of the later stages are going to be more difficult because things -- as chairman powell himself said, things that are just tougher to manage in a post-covid world, things with a lot of social interaction. we can't declare victory any time soon, but so far the news habgos been good. >> absolutely. michael, i want to ask you about

the reaction on the corporate bond market in general is their intervention doing more harm than good >> i don't think so right now. i think there is a lot of worry in the investment community about what the future is going to hold. individual investors as well as corporations are still hoarding cash we saw the largest corporate bond loss on record in april and may, and we need to do what we can to prepare for the future, whether it's taking advancement opportunities or shoring up balance sheets while spending is weak i don't think it's there yet i think if we start seeing corporate bonds spread making new historical lows while there is still uncertainty, you could argue that fed intervention is causing a market distortion because it's unlikely the market itself would take things to those levels on the other hand, i'm not too unhappy with this because

they've ber veeintervened in th treasury market for years and years. you could argue that what the economy needs now is lower yield interest rates, not just for the federal government to finance its deficits but financing as well, to make financing as easy as possible, to make sure equivalency problems don't turn into solvency problems >> it sounds like you would be for corporate bonds, too, then >> i think that's the next step. if ten-year treasuries start going back to 1% and they don't come back with an increase in quantitative easing, i think that is the next step. they're not going to adopt yield controls on longer term bonds, but there is no reason they couldn't adopt it for shorter maturity bonds they effectively are already doing that by using forward guidance, saying they anticipate no change in rates for several years. that basically implies two- and three-year treasuries are not moving >> and the yields are still so low at these levels.

one of the other ways, barry, that people are looking at the way the fed is distorting markets is the stock market. let me rattle off stats where we've seen a surge of sbchintert the biggest dash of cash, people took their cash levels down by about a percentage point 70% of investors say stocks are overvalued that's the most since the survey back in 1998, so that was before the worst of the dot-com mania the following year of course, we have all the other anecdotal evidence about what's been going on in the market. what do you think, barry, as a long-time market watcher, is going on here? >> i get worried when one of my young friends gets his stimulus check and invests it and says, i went from a thousand to 6,000. i think, oh, no. >> got to hire him >> he had never done any of this before it's frothy right now. that's what the retail is showing you. and the market has gotten really narrow the top five stocks are up really nicely this year. the other four and five in the

s&p are flatter down on an average, they're down. i think we're at a point, really -- excuse the flying analogy -- where you're flying a jet and you start to get ice on the wings. you only have two choices, up or down i know it sounds strange down, the ice melts. you go up, it sublimates it goes from solid to gas. that's where the market is today. you can't stay where you are we're at an inflection point so going into smaller maybe in that value arena, it's taken more risk, but that could really be the next wave it should be the next wave or taking the risk down and staying with, you know, big names that are well financed that's the stocks that i'm recommending i think we probably have a little bit more trouble ahead for us, and so companies like costco and medtronic and verizon, they're going to be real solid all through this. >> we haven't heard someone talk

about sublimates on this program maybe ever, barry. why do you think people should err on the side of caution we've heard people say this is the time to do more value, small caps, that sort of thing >> i do think it is time to start building your ideas, and that's what we're doing. we're putting together ideas of how we want to do that but probably there will be yet another opportunity. we had one last week, obviously, very short-lived but nonetheless, we think that's a good approach to start getting ready, and then maybe using any kind of a pullback to go ahead and pull that trigger. >> thank you all for a good conversation on these markets today. let's get to the news on the covid-19 drug front. this one involves a steroid treatment for the virus. meg tirrell is here with those details. meg? >> reporter: some surprising

results this morning it's a common steroid, a very old drug called dexmethazone it was used in the u.k. looking at a bunch of other drugs already available to see if it could help for severe effects of covid-19 they found when they looked at about 6,400 patients who were tested either on dexmethasone reduced symptoms in patients about a fourth nfor people receiving oxygen and a fifth for people not receiving oxygen. the survival benefit is clear and large in those patients sick enough to require oxygen treatment. so dexamethasone should be

standard in care for these patients it can be used to save lives worldwide. the scientific community more broadly is calling to see the full data set to really understand the benefits and any potential safety issues that could arise with this drug they want to see the full study published. meanwhile, kelly, not everyone seeing this as universally good news investments in the smaller vaccine makers like derma driving those shares down today. i would point out just because we have a successful drug doesn't mean we don't also need the vaccine. >> exactly raise your hand if you'd rather have the drug over the vaccine does it rival remdesivir or is it the same? >> remdesivir was given to patients who are in the hospital

already, but that's because it's given by an i.v. and that's how they ran the trial but many think if you give patients remdesivir before they're really ill, it will help better, whereas dexmethasone helps people when the virus is attacking the lungs while they're in the hospital. >> meg tirrell, we appreciate it citigroup going to a target of $400 on the stock they walk through the five reasons you should own it right now. home buying is jumping in the surge as confidence builds we'll have more when "the chgecoins.

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welcome back to "the exchange." more good news on the housing front with homebuilders publishing their biggest ascent ever >> building sentiment went from 21 points to 58 points any reading above 50 is a positive market. back in april it plunged a record 42 points down to 30. that has stocks in the builders, which have already bounced a lot from the lows, moving higher

again today. builders point to record low mortgage rates, existing homes for sale and a flight from densely popular urban areas back to the burbs some were buying without ever going into the home. that surprisingsurge in demand he admitted, caught lennar off guard. >> as the market stalled, we paused our land development and starts as well we know as we get to the fourth quarter, we're going to be a little bit short on our closings, but nonetheless, we rebooted pretty quickly as the market started showing signs of recovery in housing. >> the nahb reported big jumps in current sales position, sales in the next six months and especially buyer traffic

region demand improved most in the northeast and was highest in the northwest. kelly? >> stocks are down about 1% or so on the news is that because a lot of this was already baked in >> it was, and because they reported yesterday after the bell it got a big jump in the after-hours trading and it may be some project taking the stock has been doing well in the last day or so because people were expecting this beat coming we saw more applications to purchase a home jump as well, so a lot of this may have been baked in >> at what point does this translate into rapidly rising home prices? >> well, that depends entirely on the existing home market. that's the key here. if we get a lot more supply of existing homes for sale, then prices will ease up a bit. but we have no signs of that happening any time soon, and the builders, while they want to ramp up, they haven't ramped up fast enough. so with all this tight supply and so much demand, that's when

prices keep going up >> it's one to watch echoes of the past a little bit. diana, thanks so much. we appreciate it diane olich with housing there we've got dividends of over 5% but one biotech analyst says his research suggests we may get a vaccine by november. he'll join us elatoxpin remember you can always watch "the exchange" on your app, too "the exchange" is back in two. r, one thing never will - you can rely on the people and the network of at&t... to help keep your business connected. i'm an associate here at amazon. step onto the blue line, sir.

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♪ y-yeah ♪ ♪ yeah ♪ hey, hey ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." look at the ten-year yield, about 25 basis points. it's been at 1% and hasn't broken that level since march. if you're searching for energy these days, the energy patch san option up 43%, it's still providing a dividend yield at 7%

valero up 57% in the past three months still yields almost 6%. it's not typically the first place you would think of, but these energy stocks have become some of the most prominent dividend plays in the market now sue herera for an update sue? >> reporter: president trump has signed an executive order that ames to raise standards for policing and transparency. the president says those standards would ban chokeholds unless an officer's life is in danger in new york city, three police officers have now been released from the hospital after drinking milkshakes from a shake shack and falling ill. initially the police association said the milkshakes might have been tainted with bleach police are investigating, but they say they have determined there was no criminality by shake shack employees. in beijing, all schools have been ordered closed amid a new surge in coronavirus infections. the capital has also raised its coronavirus emergency response

to its second highest level. and here at home, amazon has a new technology to help monitor social distancing. it's called distance assistant and it's already in use at several amazon facilities. amazon plans to open source that technology so anybody can deploy their own version. hopefully they can say it, distance assistance. >> yeah. i am so excited for that to come to all the establishments near us >> yep exactly. >> sue, thanks very much sue herera with the latest there. the cdc released its 50s list one newcomer on the list is part of a growing trend we're all getting used to. julia? >> amid the pandemic, with demand on education, guild

education's customers include fortune 500 companies such as chipotle they enroll in programs in high school and trade classes to bachelor and masters degrees, as well as access to a guild coach. >> we're having a lot of conversations about upscaling and work force transformation, and that's devastating when it's companies undergoing layoffs and furloughs, but we're spending a lot of time there talking about how education can be an outplacement school as well as companies thirnking about their mobility strategy. how do they consider upscaling their work force and also jobs into the next decade >> the five-year-old denver-based company has raised nearly $232 million at a $1

valuation. it's helping millions who need help during the pandemic it's also helping companies like disney offering furlough to its workers. they are giving laid-off workers access to valuable skills. >> by being able to help, folks have access to high-quality short-term courses and help from a lower wage job to a middle wage job we thought there was a silver lining that we could help workers do something resourceful after they've been let go. >> they do expect demand for work education to continue to grow it's not just because of the pandemic and the impact of the pandemic, but also as more workers are displaced because of automation and artificial intelligence guild education is collaborating with the other ed tech company on this year's fortune 50 list,

cosera >> thank you for bringing that to us. jul jul julia borstein a retail recovery. the sector surging today as economies open up. we'll speak with the ceo of the pga superstore with what he's seeing in retail ko'shl, macy's and capri holdings stay with us (music) anncr: give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. with adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. adyen. business. not boundaries.

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welcome back let's get a check on these markets after another volatile session today. the dow was up 850 points at the highs. at the lows, we were only up 48. that was after we got news of more aggressive lockdown measures in beijing and the comments here at home by jerome powell that the feds were buying we went almost all the way back down and now the dow is up 2% for the s&p, 2% for the nasdaq let's get a quick check on treasuries, too, with yields moving higher today. we're talking about in the tenure,te 10-year. a pretty nice move to the upside here for the 10-year in

particular that is helping the banks today. it's hitting its highest level when we were at the highs. speaking of hitting records, apple is near its all time high. it just announced it's opening 75 more stores in the u.s. this week the stock high on that news and it's been on a tear lately up more than 10%, up near 15% since the month's lows city boosts their price target, saying there's more reasons to own the stock right now. jim is the tech analyst at citi, and he joins me now. >> kelly, it's good to see you we think the number one reason to own apple is the second half of this year is going to be very exciting a lot of innovation. in fact, many people were concerned that coronavirus would slow down their innovation, and they wouldn't have a 5g product lineup we have absolutely confidence

that they will have 5g lineups in time for christmas, and it will be big and a lot of people will want those. we think that plus the work from home move, people doing things remotely such as you and i and other guests on the show are doing things like buying apple a airpods and buying ipads for fitness. the second half of the year is going to be very exciting for the company. >> number one, the 5g launch, current expectations reset lower, potential for share gains and applewood and shared services talk about applewood and the success they're having in these media frays.

>> when we go to the company's shares beyond the united states and beyond global china, there is one market that they've penetrated in and the lowest, and that is india. when apple goes into more and more content, we think it will p bring a package where they could offer apple music, apple tv, apple incidents. we see that quite exciting, and they give you some share percentage in india, they have about 1% market share, in north america, close to about 50%, and globally just under 20% so when you see that disproportionate low amount in india, and india has over 1.3 billion people, yes, definitely some economic challenges in the country, but there is also a lot

of wealth in the country, too. that's a big adjustable market where apple is moving its manufacturing, some of its newer sites to be in india so they can produce more affordably and not have the input of tariffs. that's why india is a long-term growth for them. >> so what are the hits, jim as we talk about india and china, there is a skirmish between the two nations. we don't know what will happen with the coronavirus that shut down parts of beijing and even the u.s. here. are the biggest risk factors for the stock basically another wave of kind of people staying at home because the virus, slower global growth? what would you say your biggest concerns are >> my biggest concern is that coronavirus comes back in the second half of the year and we have to shut down the world an the businesses and the retail shops that apple had to do also. we see that as less likely, but keep in mind, worst-case scenario, if we do have to continue to work from home,

people are buying more ipads for education, they're buying more airpods for remote activity. people are working out more at home and wearing apple watches on their treadmills and around their neighborhoods. so even in that worst-case scenario, we still think things are pretty exciting. with that worst-case scenario, the entire market wouldn't do very well, but we're encouraged overall with a lot of progress being made with coronavirus. unfortunately, there are some hot spots that do pop up but you are right, kelly, coronavirus is our biggest concern overall for all of our tech coverage. >> let's talk about earnings expectations for apple and the multiple that $400 would put them at. and the fact that i believe that would also put them at a trillion and a half market cap >> yeah, you're right. the math is actually between a trillion and a half and 2 trillion splitting hairs there, about 1.75 trillion for a $400 target price. but the valuation is important we view it at a 25 times price

to earning, including all their cash, which is about $100 billion. if you remove that cash, it gets you closer to 25 times earnings, and that amount may seem higher than normal, which is true, but apple doing more with services are getting people into their platform, are being very sticky, very recurring revenues and we expect that to happen in the multiple and becoming a little more like consumer growth staples where you have to have these items to continue to enjoy life and succeed your smartphone today is actually more important than the shoes you wear you can swap out your shoes every day, you can replace them easy, but your iphone or your smartphone it's part of an essential of who you are and where you go, even more so than your purse or wallet or shoes. we view these things as very necessity in everyday life >> very quickly, jim, we spoke to your colleague on the street,

even suggesting they would have to buy a search engine to offset any interests they might have for google and microsoft, complementing what they do with the iphone is that something you would get behind, something that would make sense for you >> i actually think apple has so much more addressable market in other avenues such as health care, such as education, such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality that those are going to be higher sought after markets rather than creating their own search engine. when apple created apple maps, it didn't go out too successfully and there was a big backlash there so we think instead of focusing on search engines, they'll be focusing on health care. the apple watch where it can identify if you fall down and become unconscious and call your loved ones or paramedics, very important. think about education of remote learning, of how things are changing in there.

think about virtual and actureao train doctors around the world that didn't have these things before we think apple will go after these things also. >> jim suva, thanks for your time appreciate it. apple is going to 400. retail sales making record gains in may as the economy reopens after being locked down. we'll look at the numbers and speak to the ceo of the pga superstore as they hit locations across the country matthew shay warned against another lockdown on ""squawk box"" earlier. >> we can't go into other lockdown fi enoc hat with thecomi rst responders that remained open throughout the last three months it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip.

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welcome back to "the

exchange." we learned this morning that retail sales surged 17 to 20% in may versus the 8%. it's the biggest surge ever as companies begin to reopen. clothing stores are still down 60% from the previous year sporting goods were at 80% last month and are actually up 5% from earlier the etf at about 5%. for more on the sales surge ask wh -- and what the long game is for companies as they reopen, let's bring in the ceo of pga superstore and on the board of directors. good to have you welcome. >> thanks, kelly good to be here. >> i hear there are crowds where are your stores finally able to reopen >> we're open in all stores now. all 43 stores are reopened

we just opened new jersey yesterday. all stores are fully reopened. >> some go to stores to use the golf equipment, that sort of thing, and we know golf is one of the things people have been able to do during the lockdown period is your business up from this period last year, or are you still down >> our business, since the middle of may, has been phenomenal in fact, the first two weeks of june, we've had recordbreaking weeks. the first week of june was recordbreaking, second week was recordbreaking, we're in our third week this is typically the one week of the year, father's day, like our christmas week once golf stores began to open back up in may, customers were flooding our stores and also going online and buying product. it's one of those few sports that encourages physical distancing we still want to have physical activity, but it's one of the few sports we've seen a real big surge. we've seen the may numbers, but we've seen new customers coming

into our buildings that we've never seen before. >> i'm not going to be one of them i'm absolutely awful at trying to hit the golf ball around. i admire people who are good at it is it sustainable? i don't know if you're moving a little up or down, still, from last year, but is there going to be some pent-up demand we know stimulus checks might help people with a little spending money right now what happens after the next couple of months, though >> well, it's all good questions. we're asking ourselves the same thing. we've been up 20, 35%. yesterday we were up 50% over last year. we're seeing tremendous numbers. certainly pent-up demand we were closed down in april and golf is really important in april. it's almost like owning a ski resort and having your ski resort close in january. certainly there's been a shift in the buying pattern, no question about that, but i think one of the most exciting things, the new faces in our stores, we're seeing so many more women in our business. our women's business, our club business, even the beginner box set business is up 30 to 45% the fun thing about our business

is more kids coming into the game, more women coming into the game, so i think it's sustainable from that standpoint it is questionable what happens to unemployment, what happens to stimulus checks because i think it drives some of it, of course, but the progress is real good based on the data points we're seeing >> how many people are allowed is there kichnd of a reservatio process? what's that like >> every market based on mandates is different. in arizona it was appointment only now there is still occupancy limits, but we've never encountered any limit cap in terms of our stores. but it's interesting because we put a starter at the front of our stores, a new position in our company, so that customers could feel comfortable coming in a lot of people had emotional concerns about shopping retail is there too many people in the store? what do i do, where do i go? there are signs besides the mandatory masks, face shields and that, if people want to buy

a new putter or driver, they have to experience that. so we spend a significant amount of time wiping down clubs and making sure our associates are safe and making sure our customers are safe there are still customers who don't want to shop in our store, so our e-commerce is up, but a new innovation for us is a curbside caddie. so 30 to 40% of our online purchases are people who want to come to the store and have it delivered to their car in a safe environment. people are buying groceries online and having them delivered. i don't think that part will change i think people will get comfortable with digital purchasing >> and all of this without those national golf events really kicking offer ye yet it's amazing that people are kind of taking their time with it it was great to have you, would love to have you back. >> i think we could help you with your game, kelly. thanks for having me on. >> no, if you see me entering a

topgolf, just duck great to see you, mr. sullivan, and best of luck he is the ceo of pga superstore. 21 million people are collecting unemployment as the coronavirus fallout continues. some are being asked to return their money. we'll have those details next. caterpillar, the biggest gainer at 5%, merck, boeing and home depot coming back that's next. can i find an investment firm with a truly long-term view that's been through multiple market cycles for over 85 years? with capital group, i can. talk to your financial professional or consultant for investment risks and information. talk to your financial professional or consultant [shouting] [clapping and shouting]

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xfinity x1 just got even better with peacock premium included at no additional cost. no strings attached. just say "peacock" into your voice remote to start watching today. welcome back p quite a few are now realizing they may have over paid some workers and they want their money back.

>> hundreds of thousands said they owe money due to overpayment of benefits. that includes 46,000 in texas, 35,000 in virginia and 24,000 in ohio it could be because of an oversight, misunderstanding about eligibility, fraud or a technical error like is the case in virginia. the state is claiming she does not qualify for benefits even though ohio paid her for vehicles after she proved el jiblts based on hours and weeks worked >> i was really upset. it was just the wave of stress

and frustration. it was really upsetting and stressful. >> she's appealing her case in ohio she's no longer receiving benefits and still hasn't been called back to work. >> i think this is crazy f fst the fra if it's fraud, you have to go back for the money everybody is confused about how this works or doesn't work the whole point is to ere or the side of helping people that was the whole point of sending out checks >> it was. what you'll hear from a lot of the states is they have to maintain the integrity of the program. for every person who was over paid there is someone who is not getting the money they need.

we're cases they may not expect it quickly, you don't know it was more than you were supposed to get i might be harder to send this money back >> that's wild thank you so much. coming up, moderna is saying it could have vaccine efficacy data by november tune in to squawk box tomorrow for an interview with general motors chair mary b a, rra. don't miss it. we're back in two. hile most stores are open, i'm working from home and here to help. here's a tip: get half-off the amazing iphone 11 on at&t, america's fastest network for iphones. second tip: you can put googly eyes on your stuff to keep yourself company. uh for example, that's heraldo. he's my best friend. oh, sorry nancy, i forgot you were there. get the amazing iphone 11 for half-off on at&t, america's fastest network for iphones.

can i find an investment firm with a truly long-term view that's been through multiple market cycles for over 85 years? with capital group, i can. talk to your financial professional or consultant for investment risks and information. welcome back moderna, jay and jay are racing to produce a covid vaccine

manufacturers are already making deals too. my next guest says all this suggests we might get fda approval of a vaccine before election day i'd love to know how substantive you think those chances are. >> great to be here. i appreciate it. i think we sort of consider the elements out there with respect to how many trials the fact the fda is co-sponsoring or the government is co-sponsoring so many of these trials we'll have phase one two data by the early summer it seems like everything that has happened over the past few

years leaves me to believe the government would love to have something on the market to temporarily solve covid 19 and get the market higher than it is now. >> if what you're describing is this big push this is really important government objectsive. is that going to make people r wary of this vaccine how foolproof does this have to be for people not to go, i don't know if i want to get that >> the approval or the efficacy, how good this vaccine is after a few months in clinical trials are completely different issues. a lot of the feedback we have been getting from clinicians and investors is there's a lot of skepticism or cynicism with

respect to how the vaccines will be viewed in the public. that's the other side of te indication that i really haven't dug ultimately that deep into in the writing i've done very recently i think think an approval of one of these vaccines is very likely and the up tick is limited these vaccines will fot have been in the clink a long enough time period for us to make in l intelligent decisions. >> moderns is first out of the gate who is most likely to get us there? >> i think moderna is in the lead or very close to the lead the oxford university collaboration seems to be picking up a lot of momentum

johnson and johnson later in 2020 those are the four leaders there's the whole host of other vaccines and development that we have o watch out for you mentioned moderna. i think that's spot on >> what if that doi deliver. i think we're back to square one. have to identify what other vaccine approaches we can take into 2021 and further years. we're not going to have any efficacy data that we would need in a vaccine these trials are longer. the fda has accelerated the pathway by over a decade in some regard

i think the entire game has changed. it makes me think we have to be discussing it and considering in a different light as well. >> thanks so much. >> you bet >> that does it for the exchange ais i'll see you on power lunch. welcome. we'll see you over here in the amendment m -- a moment the dow just off of 500 point ps the fed chair powell telling investors what they want to hear more on that in a minute to benefit from a potential trillion dollar infrastructure ag