tv The Exchange CNBC June 18, 2020 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
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b of a, jb morgan, well s sequencing, we own this for the long term. >> and the reformed broker, last but not least. >> the buyers came in for slack sales force oig could face coul. after the sell-off at 30 and large conversations who want to avoid paying the tax could do 30had been resistance, the the right thing and pay their buyers solidify that level as support. i think it's a low-risk entry executives lessor simply raise their employees' wages here and now headed higher. but the sf chamber of commerce great to see everybody says that they could create a thanks for watching. flight risk with companies kelley picks it up right now. leaving the city voters will vote on the bill later in november. back to you. >> thanks very much. and that does it for the exchange oig i'll see you on "power lunch" in a moment . we'll look at whether the market can break out s if. plus work from home worries, i'm melissa lee and this is the profound impact this new way of life could have, could it "power lunch." a commhoppy trading session. lengthen the recession in the near term. the nasdaq is the outperformer the new kid on the block has up about a quarter of a% right now. plus check out the cloud stocks doubled this month it's a bullish one hitting new highs this week as america stays, shops and works the analyst behind that call joins us at hole. we begin with today's markets.
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>> kelly, that market vortex of adobe, some of the movers. fear and hope that you just and also cinemark is getting referenced is playing out in the ready to reopen theaters across market right now right now there are no winners, the country in july. the ceo will explain why he there are no losers, basically a thinks the silver screen is draw at this point about to make a comeback the dow off by about 70 point "power lunch" starts right now off the lows-ish, but it's been >> melissa, thanks and th pretty much range bound. holding right around that 3100 mark, and marginal gains for the nasdaq composite one place, though, that's really standing out and has been for a while here has been the v-shaped recovery we have seen in software stocks. the etf, ticker igb, by the way, this gets a gold star. it hit a record high today the stock of the day not because they did anything really wrong. they beat on the bottom line
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after the top line reporting results, about you they withdrew or didn't give guidance citing issues around the covid-19 pandemic kell, i'll send things back over to you dom, thanks very much. the market is swinging between gains and losses following weaker than expected jobs claims this morning it races some doubts about the strength of the recovery joining us is chief investment officer at wells fargo, and chris rupke at mufg. chris, i'll just be gin with you and what sense you can make of the jobless claims numbers >> i guess we started with march 13th, with the first signals,
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now three months later we have $1.5 million just this week. the worst pint at the last recession 665,000 in one week. that was the maximum now we still have -- we're running 2 1/2 times that right now. it's really unbelievable how bad these job losses are i think that's why the markets are having trouble forming a rational opinion about what this means. >> darrell, i'll ask you if you think this series is too -- skewed is not the right word, just affected by all the things going on with the jobless claims, and the absolute flood of people trying to get these
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benefits all at once. >> knotts doubt that the jobs matter so getting this high-frequency data is of extreme importance i think the most disappointing point for me was the continuing claims didn't come down more, which is your sustained claims that people are maybe not moving from that furloughed world into more of a permanent or stagnant unemployment level we need to watch that closely. it's interesting, though the jobs data is juxtaposed against some of the other data we're seeing, which is better housing data, the nifb survey came in much better, some of the retail numbers. so a lot of the stuff are coming off and gaining momentum as we move forward here, but labor and
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jobs matter. >> steve, to that point we had a much better reading on the philly fed survey, so there were parts that were say they were coming vigorously off the bottom, but the labor market remains a mess >> our advice is to stay the course here. unemployment claims are typically a good number, but the week to week is bouncing around here, with all the delays, et cetera, i think the general picture that most investors should have is week to week they should be better than the last week we're in kind of a hard bounce, and then we'll be chopping wood for probably six to 12 months. you know, we remain optimistic we think equities a year, year and a half out will be substantially higher that said we have taken some risk assets off the table from where we were when i was last
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with you, kelly, and we were, you know, much lower, but we're still overweight stocks here we think it's very much a stock picking game, has been all year, but in the back half of the year even more so it's been easy up to now, buy the winners, sell the losers now we're looking at the survivors that can continue to get better as the economy gets better, but that's a dicier proposition. >> right. >> so i think it is a stock picking game, less of a market call right now. >> absolutely. chris, to bring you back in, there were other economists on the street who said they're just going to stop watching the jobless claims series, because it's at odd with readings on the economy. would you go that far? is it an aberration to you, or does it tell us it's a much tougher slog out there if that's the case, you think the markets would be upgrading --
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>> i think this other economic data -- i know the fed officials have pointed to things like credit cards, spending, things like that. i'm not in favor of that. >> unemployment claims was the most immediate figure we have about what's right and what's wrong with the economy, and the levels are so high right now that people, they just can't -- they don't realize how bad it is out there right now. i haven't been on a plane since february 29. there's a food -- a line for food they're giving away at the elementary school around the block, and it goes like half a mile we have never seen this. right now with unemployment claims, there's 30 million people receiving benefits. it was just 2 million receiving benefits march 13th. people just can't -- you can't imagine how bad that is. it's not just continuing claims.
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it's also a pandemic unemployment assistance program, there's 10 million getting that. there's 1.1 million getting pandemic emergency unemployment claims there's 30 million people out there getting benefits it's just -- i've never seen this in my career. >> i'll give darrell and steve a chance to respond to that. steve, first to you, i also can't help by mention, one of companies of your picks is planet fitness, which seems like the last place that anybody is flocking to. >> example of a survivor, kelly. planet fitness has a great balance sheet. they're going to help consolidate this industry, which was probably overbuilt, and we think, you know, they're one of those survivors. if you're looking for something that could move substantially higher, having missed -- you could be overly bearish here
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we have a lot of gig employees unemployed, but they're going to get better each week once we get to the point where americans are less fearful going out, there's a pile of cash that they're waiting to spend they have all been getting a bridge along from the federal government the last half of the year i know will be dicey, but 12 months from now the economy will be sailing along fine long-term investors should be staying the course and looking for spots to add, not blowing the bugle and running for the hil hills. >> it's time for investors to stay up in quality you want too overweight, and still overcyclical over defensive in our view at this point.
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i think it's going to be positioned accordingly, and don't get too defensive here thank you all today. i really appreciate it. we turn to the coronavirus cases in nevada, and last night they changed the rules a gamers will be required to wear face masks. >> reporter: these rules apply to any table where there are no glass -- or plexiglas partitions separating the dealers from the blares, and new rules mandate the casinos are offering masks to the guests upon their entry, they post signs declaring that masks are available, but the regulators stopped short of mandating masks for all visitor inside or even for slot players. the pictures show, when given the choice, the vast majority of
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guests are choosing not to cover their faces. casinos have been open now for two weeks. the restaurants have been open for more than a month. coronavirus cases are spiking. tuesday clark county reported a record daily increase. a former cdc science adviser told "the las vegas journal" this is still a first wave i think you saw a ripple and a tsunami is left. jerome powell called nevada ground zero for why recovery could take years, why the federal government needs to plan on more aid. the state unemployment there is 28%. the workforce largely depends on businesses that profit from people congregating. what people have told us is congregating and coronavirus go hand in hand at this point. >> we're about to get into it, but these stocks which have been ripped off their lows, does that
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tell you they just got oversold, or the market is way more optimistic that you and i can even fathom, given what you have just described. >> let 'deese part and renal at the regional casinos we got a great look at how they're performing they have taken all these massive costs out of the business and when they reopen slowly to add them in, only incrementally. the buffets can't open anyway. now you have a good excuse not to reopen them the profit margins show that the companies are figuring out hout to make money even despite the coronavirus. >> contessa, very good point thank you. let's look at the run
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they've been on. se mgm, which has a few hotels on the strip is up more than -- and the best performer has penn national gaming. i guess that's what closing the buffet will do for you nick la is the new kid on the block, it's nearly doubled, we'll speak with the first analyst who initiated coverage plus major changes are coming to a mcdonald's near you. we'll tell you exactly what they are. and are there better economic indicators that can be used to gauge the pandemic recovery? we'll explore ahead on "the exchan exchan exchange."
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good response. >> that good response he's talking about is the stock nearly doubling since going public through a reverse merger two weeks ago. it surged as high as $94 last week and now it's getting its first weights endorsement with cowen giving them a price dale earnhardt up about 20% from these levels jeff osborn is the analyst behind the call. this is my first question, so it's not as if you're just a fan boy of evs. >> in particular, out to avoid some of the pitfalls, and
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hopefully they won't be building trucks out -- >> let's talk about some of the contrasts between nicola and tesla. in what way does nicola remind you of tesla, and are those differences a good thing, in your view? >> the biggest is tesla looks to makes everybody in-house you certainly can have a leadership in technology they have that today i think the europeans are rapidly catching up, upgrade their technology, but in terms of nikola, they created the company bosh and worthington we're at the start of that process, but over close to a dozen partners really accelerated the path to
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development. in the latest round, it gives them in the first two years a location to make these trucks at a factory in germany that's been making trucks for quite some time. >> interesting, and the company is a ways off from producing in the u.s. i know a lot of this is about the trucks that it's producing you're saying you're talking about them becoming earns positive in 2024 in tacting abo i-- this year hay to taught us that it's hopeful at best when you have people in robin hood piling into the stock and driving it up to 97 out of their excitement for the future, are you really ability to come in with financial analysis to determine what a proper price target should be >> i hear you on that. that being said there's over 250,000 trucks per year alone.
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if you look at europe, the mandates start in 2025, so it will be a quick ramp-up in that region looking domestically as you have at places that are all putting sustainability goals out there, a lot of them have been able to decarbonize their buildings and factories, but the hardest part is a whole host of applications, a solution like what nikola is offering, to enable them to get there. the innovative partner should allow them to hit the targets. >> fascinating jeff, great to have you. thanks so much. >> thank you now, if you are looking for a usiyogurt parfait or other it, mick donald is limiting --
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>> this after slimmed down operations led to improved times. they have removed salads, bagels and yogurt parfaits to simplify operations, but also exploring ways to bring some things back like salads in the future. earlier in the week executives said 25 seconds were shaved off. drive-thru accounts is about two thirds of the business they removed craft burger options in years, and making it a business so reliant on speed and convenience. franchisees have also spoken out about the menu's complexity and some are pushing to drop all-day breakfast. talks are still ongoing, so we'll continue to follow. >> as long as they don't drop
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the mcflurry we have a news alert on reopenings, new jersey announcing that indoor portions of malls are set to reopen on june 29th. there will be mask requirements. coming up buy eers fled to florida. will the flight down south last? details of a new ballots brewing between apple and developers over the app store. remember, you can always listen to us live or on the go on the cnbc app. "the exchange" will be back in a couple your range of choices. many dealers now offer optional pick-up & delivery and at-home maintenance, as well as online shopping with home delivery and special finance arrangements. so, whether you visit your local dealer or prefer the comfort of home you can count on the very highest level of service.
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travelers from florida to new york, due to concerns they could spread coronavirus cuomo also slamming the federal government for their handling of the environment, calling it, quote, an undeniable mistake arizona reporting 2,519 new cases. dominic robb is until fire, rob saying in an interview with talk radio that the roots of taking a knee, a form of protests associated with the black lives matter movement seem to him to be taken from "game of thrones. robb adding he felt taking a knee was a symbol of subjugation rather than liberation. nancy pelosi forcing the removal of portraits of three previous speakers who served in the confederacy. you are up to date, ke will.
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. sue, thanks very much. robert frank has a look at how a luxury boom has been created in the sunshine state. >> sales contracts in may compares with aier for condos, down 83%, and co-ops priced over $5 million in manhattan, down over 90% in may. some of those buyers, as you mentioned, are shifting their money, which saw a big increase in may contract priced over a million up over 45% in miami-dade county, up 27%, in palm beach county manhattan brokers are claiming the shutdown to blame. they will begin showing on
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monday new condo listings down about 54% in may in manhattan, but they have been creeping higher the big unknown is because of prices we haven't had deals, so we don't know the true price levels some saying it could be down 10%. but, again, a big unknown of what the price levels will be in manhattan. in the meantime, a lot of buying in florida so far the brokers tell me the increased cases in florida have not had an impact on demand, kelly. >> just how big is the luxury boom down there, robert? how much are prices and sales up is is it sustainable >> it's market by market if you look at single-family home sales in palm beach and miami, prices are up double digits a lot of brokers telling me in terms of sustainable, june, which is typically the off-season, has been one of the busiest months ever, even
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compared to the peak season for many of these brokers. a lot of it is young families putting their kids in schools. >> i'm losing my dear neighbors to that very thing, so i don't appreciate the uptick. robert franks, thank you very often. coming up, a deep economic look at the back of working from home could have. plus san francisco is considering a tax to help with covid costs. and many economists are scratching their heads about the state of the economy we'll look at some of the market's leading indicators e athereelng us. stay with us
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after the very bad unemployment claims numbers this morning, we are down about 1%. we'll see if the dow jones the others energy and consumer staples are the leaders today. real estate and utilities are the laggards, but not by too much digging into the dow, the leaders right now are procter & gamble, travelers, microsoft and raytheon, not enough again to turn positive. we have more companies saying they plan to keep workers at home even after the economies open that could have a profound effect steve liesman has a look at the
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short and long-term impacts of keeping america at home. steve? >> kelly, thanks if it happens en masse, it could be disruptive to the economy, even len in this as the economy adjusts to the change, as productive capacity is idled because office space and restaurants and retail have places that serve these workers, all of a sudden have reduced business, and maybe who knows, no big if a lot of people stay home let's look at working at home by the numbers. 28% in our recent survey of americans working from home due to the coronavirus now, of that 44%, they want to continue working from home and are unsure about returning who knows, maybe it's one in five, maybe one in four, i doubt it's one in two, but some large percentage could ultimately end up staying at home
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39% meanwhile, of urban dwellers, they have thought about moving due to the coronavirus. look at the challenge this presents idling office retail and residential space, that could spell debt troubles, especially the most highly leveraged real estate out there but as in all of economics, there's always an offset you can't take one without the other. some of those offsets could be a decline in new construction which makes existing capacity more -- plus low interest rates, plus -- on social distancing, and then the big question, what about worker product activity gains? more product tiff is good for the economy overall. the question is are workers more productive do they put that extra time into more work or more family time? that is a question for the economy. i know you have a person coming up on a poll, kelly.
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one thing that struck me from the poll, is 47% of business respondents expect the physical footprint to be changed permanently. that is the interesting thing to watch, to see how extreme that becomes for the outlook of the economy and these individual sectors as well. picking up on what you said, i wonder long-term economy, if more family time helps to become more productive. you know, perhaps that's just the kind of balance that would be more productive in the very, very very long run >> sure, it could be what's happened here, kelly, is a window has opened on a new possibility that many people didn't know about. some people were working from home for the first time, myself included there's some possibilities here. i could about he anywhere -- i'm
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spending lest time in traffic and airplanes. i don't miss a single flight that i have not taken. >> nor i, steve. i agree. sorry to the airlines, but i hear you thank you, mr. liesman what are companies planning to do in a post-covid world? there's a survey out today of 575 companies looking to get a picture of what this new reality will look like 67% are planning to stick with work from home policies now. l liam, welcome. >> thanks, kelly >> okay. we say people are planning to work from home are we talking a few months or could it be much more longer lasting? is. >> first we asked them which policies they put in place as a result of this
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that started when that was a policy you could put in place, prior to there be more of a government mandate that this is happening. right flow almost all companies have employees working from home we describe that as an expanded or universal work from home policy we basically asked them, do you expect the policies to remain in place long term or perm northwesternly two thirds of businesses expect expanded work from home policies to remain in place >> one of the questions i was going to ask, because it has implications for commercial real state. obviously more people from working from home seems to lessen it. are companies going to need more space? >> yeah, there's two things from the survey that talked about that one, we did ask, do you plain to
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reduce your office space almost half said yes about 20% said they plan to reduce it by more than a quarter. so some people are expecting big, significant cuts to their physical office space. to your point, though, about three quarters of the responses said they expect social distancing, physical distancing to be the biggest operational challenge they'll face going back to work, so, you know, to your point that may definitely, you know, produce circumstances where they need to find new office space. >> in general, what is your sense on product activity? going up going down >> i heard you guys talking about family time there. so there was about 40% of respondents in march told us they were suffering product activity hits. about another third told us that, you know, they expected to experience product activity hits three months later, this
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expected hasn't materialized about 15% of the organizations that said they were experiencing it said they did experience it, but they are no longer so i think the general sense there is people are figuring it out, learning to be productive i have a 2-year-old, so my wife and i are running a daycare and working at the same time, but we're finding ways to be productive based on our survey respondents, there's a hit to product activity, but it's not this massive thing that they were expecting? >> how many words does a 2-year-old have? >> she's got a lot liam, good to have you here. one last question on this front. does it help or hurt corporate profit margins, do you think will it be cheaper in the long run? >> yes that's something that came out adeck dotal content. we had open-ended challenges
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we had a lot of folks telling us there's a big investment of getting someone involved obviously there's a cost savings reducing office space. a lot of people said they weren't necessarily planning to continue -- or they were planning to keep their travel limitations they had put in place and actually not very -- a good portion were planning to, you know, not jump right back into business travel in the fourth quarter so, you know, i think they're always looking at ways they're saying money right now i think this could be a proof of comment. >> thank you, liam coming up, small businesslander kabbage has made our disruptor list for the third year, and it has a new ceo
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and brewing challenge thwi apple with its developers. we'll have the details, right after this okay, give it a try. between wisdom and curiosity, there's a bridge. between ideas and inspiration, trauma and treatment. gained a couple of more pounds. that's good for the babies. between the moments that make us who we are, and keeping them safe, private and secure, there's webex.
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really accelerated path for uber drivers and independent contractors in general to land on the site and get access to a ppp loan it allowed the application to be pre-populated and speed through. these are the group of applicants, folks that are qualified to receive a ppe loan, that have not be able to get it really easy there. >> they have already secured 150,000 business loans, making kabbage the fourth largest ppp lender by volume, though their average loan side is about one quarter of size of other lenders. this is help kabbage compensation for the decline small business lending it did furlough a number of employees at the end of march. >> i think we'll see a huge
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renaissance for small business on the other side. first, i think this is a wake-up call for the banks they're sees a fintech revolution we would not have been able to do what we have done today back when we started the company in 2009 the technology and opportunity wasn't there we see this opportunity as a new dawn for small business. >> now, kabbage tells us about 90% of those applying for ppp loans through its business are new customers which it says it hopes will help it and those customers will stick around for other parts of kabbage's businesses >> i thought there was a sound bite coming. >> it looks like we're missing a sound bite there, but kelly, certainly interesting challenges and opportunities for kabbage.
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it's one of the system companies on the disruptor 50 list, so you can find more at cnbc.com/disruptors. >> and that partnership with uber is fascinating. thank you, julia boorstin all over the disruptors list. heal is also on the list, and we'll speak with its ceo in the next hour. josh lipton is here now with the apple details. >> that's right, kelly this is happening just days before apple's big developers show kicks off the core issue is the rules and requirements for payment in the app store, an issue that regulators in europe is looking at basecamp just launched hey, but
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now there's a problem. he says apple is threatening to remove the app from its store unless it using apple's own payment sim and share part of the revenue. he says that's not fair, because he doesn't elicit payment from inside the app. >> if you want to sell software, make software, you have to be on these mobile app stores. they're saying, you know what? we're going to take a 30% cut of all economic activity. that's just preposterous >> but apple hits right back, saying this app doesn't meet the guidelines more broadly apple will argue it offers is secure platform and developers have earned over $155 billion since the app store first launched back in 2008, but a risk for apple here is that this fight snowballs in fact match group is weighing
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in too, telling cnbc we're acutely aware of theer over us bottom line, why does it matter for faster-growing, higher-margins services sector kelly, back to you. >> and this isn't the first teem we've heard this raised. you have to wonder how committed apple is committed to this. >> it comes down to money and the cut. apple takes a 30% cut for subscription services, that drops to 15% after the first 12 months we know, listen, some developers have pushed back saying that's too much apple will counter, we offer a big platform, powerful, there's a reason you can reach so many people around the world. >> josh, thanks very much. still ahead, leading
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economic indicators may be less sensitive these days because of the coronavirus. we'll look at some key signals to watch stay with us ♪ the covid-19 pandemic is creating food insecurity on a scale not seen in decades. an estimated 54 million americans will struggle with hunger. ♪ with 200 food banks and 60,000 meal programs, feeding america is the largest hunger-relief organization
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welcome back to "the exchange." investors are used to watching data like jobless claims as a leading edge of the economy, but the pandemic has changed all that and some are turning to market based signals like copper and the baltic dry index which has surged nearly 200% for more, i'm joined by portfolio manager at miller valley partners. john, where these market signals trustworthy enough >> yeah, i think all the tea
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leaves are trustworthy right now. you just have to be able to put all the noise aside. there are many things going on are you getting bombarded on your phone and tv and the market every day. but you really have to stay steadfast and true to things that you've watched that have worked over 20, 30, 40 years. >> the baltic dry is super volatile so obviously like you always would have to run that up against a bunch of other things. we mentioned copper. does anything else jump out to you as pointing in an upward direction? >> obviously oil has come back quite a bit. so the west texas and brent have both rallied nicely. we've seen the china imports have ramped up robert barberra at hopkins, one of my favorite in terms of
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chinese data, if you look at when the fed and jay powell had his "60 minutes" interview, from that may 17 level and that may 17 low where he said that we'll do everything in our power to get the economy going and congress will also do that, the market as well as baltic and oil has had a nice rally as well as airlines and various other indicators so if you short robinhood and you short the day traders and you short -- you are basically shorting every central bank in the world, shorting every scientist in the world and you are shorting every piece of big data and every server farm in the world. because basically everybody is working on this problem throughout the world and you are basically really not in a good spot when you are doing that i think that jay powell will continue to keep the pedal to t the metal.
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and until we get through the fall and the election, jay powell said i urge everybody to go back and watch with that 60 minutes interview, but he laid out the game plan. no doubt what he will do so for the next six months and into next spring, things will be full bore and he will be doing everything he can. because what is happening is those that can least afford it have been hurt the most. and that really is kind of why we're seeing what we're seeing throughout the globe we're not just seeing protests in the united states, we're seeing them in london and across the globe. so i think that really what we'll see going forward is as both central banks and every government across the world is going to really be adopting what they call mmt, right they won't be afraid of going into deficit to get the economy glog on a global basis and we don't know what is ahead of us in the fall and that is why they have to continue to pound away the message >> the jobless claims numbers being so bad, and they can be
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distorted by all sorts of things, but we all saw the lines in kentucky, people trying to get benefits we have noed id eidea when a lof the restaurants and businesses realize we can't keep people around at 50% capacity if this is into next year. and it may be like you said the response from congress will be enough, but i don't know, it just feels like the rebound off the lows is easier than figuring out how steep the slope will be now. >> basically we have to get confidence back. and confidence slowly coming back, we saw retail sales kind of off the charts. we're seeing apple mobility data really going off the charts. i think as we move forward, claims actually -- the market bottoms two to four weeks before claims peak. so the market is a leading indicator. it actually did exactly that, claims peaked at 6.6 million the market bottomed on march 23rd so about two weeks after that is
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when claims, we saw that big spike up to 6.6 million. and they thought that they were going to stay up there now that they are down to 1.5 million, people are like oh, my god. we're kind of flat lined right now. as things open up, we expect more people to gove back on t be payrolls and they leant out $4.8 million, and that is a lot of money all these banks have been pumping money into the system because we can't have small business and medium sized businesses shut down because they are never coming back so until those companies, until those businesses are saying, you know what, we're good, we're back on our feet, things are getting better, which probably won't happen until people feel more confident and we get some type of data, which actually we're starting to get, and we haven't had a spike yet after
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all the protests, thank god. so i think those are really the factors to watch >> we appreciate it, jay a little shorter next time >> love you. san francisco is considering a tax plan that would target bank of america, wells fargo, chipotle, visa and comcast to name a few we'll have those details next. we live in uncertain times. however, there is one thing you can be certain of. the men and women of the united states postal service. we're here to deliver cards and packages from loved ones and also deliver the peace of mind of knowing that essentials like prescriptions are on their way. every day, all across america, we deliver for you. and we always will. ever something's gone mogotten into the office.m, i hear you. feels like there's no barriers between departments now.
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with tools like manual contact tracing to help prevent one from becoming three and three from becoming more. while displaying key information in one place on a customer relationship platform you trust. because here's one more thing we're sure of. relationships are the heart of business. so let's tackle this together. welcome back to "the exchange." san francisco considering a bold tax plan to help mitigate covid related budget cuts. aditi roy has those details.
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>> reporter: it targets companies with huge wealth gaps. here is how it would work. the proposal would tax companies that pay their highest earner at least 100 times more than their median of their local san francisco workforce and earn more than 1.17 million in gross receipts those companies would pay at least a 0.1% tax on those receipts and it is a progressive tax. the proposed tax would bring in between $60 million and $160te
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