calls, so during the show i bought those calls >> a lot of companies taking a lot of shots on goal with that vaccine, doc all you need is one score. we appreciate it thanks for watching. new highs today for the nasdaq, new record highs for apple and amazon and microsoft and facebook, and that does it for us kelly picks it up right now. thank you, scott, and here's what's ahead, everybody. it is the valuation debate with those new records scott was just talking about, it's the nasdaq, the tech etf, the software etf is this whole sector getting too expensive? plus it's the balloon that just keeps growing rising corporate debt levels could be a threat to the global economy. we'll look at the biggest threat and who is most at risk. a real winner for the state trade. game on for baseball and the ivy league says no to testing. dom chu is here with the

numbers. >> you reeled off a list of stocks and scott did as well who would have thought we would be at record highs, kelly. that's exactly what's happening right now. we'll put it right off the bat for the nasdaq and the nasdaq 100. doubt industrials were up about 290 points at the highs of the session, so we're kind of there. still, though, a generally positive day for the market. we'll see if that continued momentum picks up again. now, speaking of technology, very much oriented toward that in today's trading the biggest out there in the s&p. the slk, that's the ticker the dow jones internet etf, kelly mentioned that one as well and tech services etf. they have all at this point reached record highs, and look how far we've come and then, speaking of, it's not

just microsoft and apple and amazon and all those names check out adobe, nvidia, paypal. they are all at record highs just for some perspective, ke y kelly, paypal is now a $205 billion company. it makes almost as much as netflix, almost as much as dm disney, and get this, twice as much as boeing right now top officials, including dr. fauci, are testifying on capitol hill, and it's still going on as the united states' response to the pandemic and cases continue to spike in more than half of all states meg tirrell joins me now with the latest and all headlines meg? >> well, these health officials, and dr. fauci in particular, really sounding the alarm on the trend there starting to obser observe across the country with cases and hospitalizations rising across the south and the west take a listen to what dr. fauci

had to say about that warning. >> we are now seeing a disturbing surge of infections that looks like it's a combination, but one of the things is an increase in community spread and that's something that i'm really quite concerned about >> and dr. fauci citing states like florida, texas, arizona, but they're not the only one, including new york on the trends they're starting to see. this is overall in the country reporting 20,000 new cases yesterday and the overall trend in the 7-day average ticking up again to around 28,000 for the last week. the positive rate of tests, the percent of tests that are positive also starting to tick up past 5% now, according to evercorps isi. hospitalizations data also extremely concerning, especially in places like texas, and the texas medical center, which is in houston, reporting really concerning numbers yesterday, noting that the icu capacity

right now is headed for a trajectory where it may be overwhelmed within two weeks based on the data they are seeing now, kelly. so these are really concerning early signs, and dr. fauci telling people they've got to start working on reversing them. >> yeah, and we had spoken with a hospital official in texas a few weeks back, meg, and they weren't sure exactly what was causing the rise in cases, but if the icu capacity starts to run out, that would be when you see officials respond more aggressively with shutdowns, i would think, and yet you look at the stock market and it doesn't seem to hint that anything like that is coming in terms of shutdowns. >> yeah, i mean, remember the first time we went through this, it was so hard to believe that the economy was going to get shut down the way it was perhaps we're in that same cycle or perhaps people believe that efforts will be taken to reverse this dr. fauci calling on identification, isolation, tracing. those kinds of public health efforts need to be happening now to shut this down. but as we start to see those hospitalizations and icu numbers

rise, we're getting into territory where it will be too late, public health officials say. >> it's going to be an interesting couple weeks meg, thanks so much. meg tirrell with the latest there. despite the latest covid count, stocks are rallying once again and we're hitting a lot of new highs. the nasdaq hitting its eighth straight day of gains. the s&p is around 22 earnings in the next few months. joining us now, se samir somana samir, i'll start with you why do the tech markets seem to not be concerned about hospitalizations in certain states >> i think they are concerned, and what you're starting to see are a lot of work from home

plays are starting to do well again. technology, health and human services, e. conners you're starting to see a little more fade in energy and industrials, so we think the market is kind of voting underneath the service and it's going back to some of these growth places. but at the top level, unfortunately, it's still a matter of where you're going to allocate your assets in very low and fixed income, or do you take your chance on things that could grow >> looking at the lens of it being defensive with what could happen with the economy as the case count spreads this is an interesting tack. some of the names you like are also krogers and sprouts market. do you see those as long-term issues with the pandemic, or is something else going on there? >> people are definitely buying more online and having things delivered, and this is actually an anti-cyclical exposure

because they're not really dependent on economic growth, which as my colleague pointed out, is beginning to be impacted by the second wave so we like the exposure to equities, we want to be exposed to equities but we want to do so in a defensive way so we have some downside protection in our fund >> samir, let's talk about valuations at the moment 22 times on the nasdaq, 22 times on the s&p is that hard to see in the early points of the expansion? >> a couple great points you made and i'll kind of pay you back off those as earnings basically trough, which we see at the end of this year, you do see historically pes tend to rise if you look at the 2002 bottom or the '07-'09 bottom, you do see the 20s. by the end of this year, we will be trading kind of in the high 20s. then as the erjz rebound next

year, we think we'll see 145 next year as opposed to 115 this year, so a pretty good bounceback in earnings it won't get back to 2019 levels that should start to filter back down, but it's worth noting that pes will be supported by the long range, and the fed talking about possibly wanting to do more at some point >> and i think you think we're rangebound 3500 until we get a vaccine in the fall. and i'll get back to you, ernesto. are you concerned? >> i would certainly be dependent on the market overall. >> ernesto, go ahead >> i'm sorry, the picture is very muddled right now >> the sound is freezing up on

us somewhat. i hate to stop and start like that, but you like sprouts farmers market, i know you like kroger and newmount corporation as well. thank you, guys, for being here from wells fargo appreciate it. coming up, we're going to talk more about paypal and square they're looking to cement their roles in the ppp program, but can they become a go-to lender for main street? and more debt could be a future hindrance to local growth we'll break that all down when we come back stay with us >> announcer: this is he chgeon cnbc. one thing is certain re-opening will be a journey. that's why salesforce created work.com to help at every step of the process, with tools like manual contact tracing to help prevent one from becoming three

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welcome back fintech companies like square and paypal are helping to get business loans to certain businesses we're starting to learn how big of a role they're playing. kate rooney joins me with more kate >> paypal focused on the smallest of ppp loans. square capital's size, just $11,000. that's about a tenth of the average loan square saying they did 4.5

months' worth of average loan volume in just six weeks for paypal, the majority of loans were under $25,000 they did nearly 2 billion in ppp loans. the success there could bode well for demand in their lending businesses those are gugenheim and barclay. the "new york times" reporting a wave of unhappy customers due to its policy on reserves kelly? >> it's because they're holding cash back, right, so they have exposure to people who make returns, and if their merchants have losses, they say, we're going to hold your money against that the journal highlighted this last week, too a lot of people say they couldn't do payroll because they couldn't access the funds these companies were holding >> right, they're called rolling reserves they hold those for about four months that money is set aside for things like chargebacks and it's standard in the industry, but of

course it comes at a time when small businesses especially need money for things like payroll. there is now a petition out there from square merchants asking them to get rid of the policy we'll see what happens there >> absolutely. kate, thanks so much kate rooney with the very latest paypal is hitting an all-time high with a $2 billion mark. both stocks have more than doubled in the past three months for more on what's next, let's bring in lisa ellis. paypal is the top pick with a 185 price target lisa, it's great to have you back and i want to start on this issue for the chargebacks. is this different for fintech than other paypal processors >> it is they play a unique role. they're able to offer these payment processing to very small businesses, smaller ones than banks normally cover, and part

of their value proposition is that they usually handle all of these chargebacks on behalf of their merchants, and the pandemic has just put them in a really unusual, unprecedented, unanticipated situation with really high volumes of chargebacks which has put them in this awkward position of ending up changing their policies right at a difficult time for all these businesses where they're having to hold back because they are responsible for those chargebacks back to visa, mastercard and the issuing banks in the payment system. >> it's fascinating. so in a lot of these cases, for example, you hired a photographer but your wedding is canceled, so you might cancel that, and ironically square and paypal end up holding the bag and holding that cash from their own customers in order to cover those losses one more question on this. if they were forced to change this practice, would it fundamentally undermine their business model >> no, it wouldn't it would be -- they would

probably have to hold some reserves for that on their balance sheet, but it would not change their business model. they would still be playing the role that they're playing, which is basically they aggregate and share the risk across all these micro merchants for things like chargebacks and other risk-related issues. that's a really core part of their value proposition. it's maybe one that isn't just visible but core underlining their merchants. at their own financial level, they might have to do something like hold back or put on the balance sheet explicit reserves to kind of cover this if they end up changing the policy back the other way. >> yeah, so again, the stock not showing a terrible amount of concern, kind of matching what you're describing. s paypal is your top risk. paypal, visa, square and mastercard so the theme here is pretty clear. why is paypal number one, and how much has the ppp program helped them with their business?

>> yeah, paypal is number one because it is such a major beneficiary of the shift to e-commerce that's happening as a result of the pandemic they are seeing unbelievable record number new net users and volume growth because of people changing their behavior, shopping more online from spending three months in their houses that's the real major driver i mean, for example, they've done something like 15 million net new users just in april and may alone. their largest full quarter ever prior to that was 10 million so 50% higher in two months alone. volume numbers up plus 40, 50% and it's really -- we estimate they've pulled forward at least three to four years of e-commerce growth just in the first two months related to the pandemic the ppp loans are certainly a

help, mainly because it helps their brand with merchants, with small merchants that might be deciding, do i want to put paypal on my website, do i want to use paypal as my payment processor? the fact they've stepped in and really helped a lot of small businesses that weren't getting access to ppp loans through their traditional bank certainly helps the brands and just broadly helps their stature with merchants. they need merchants to add the paypal checkout button this their websites in order to make the two-sided network work >> that's great insight. lisa, it's great to have you back thanks so much >> thanks, kelly coming up, peloton, zoom and netflix get all the attention, but there is one outperforming them by a lot. we'll tell you what it is. apple may be ditching the chips but they're not ditching the stocks we'll tell you about that.

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welcome back to "the exchange." let's check on thesemarkets where technology is leading the way once again today, and major average is still at all-session highs. the s&p is up to about 3150. you can see behind me the technology is the outperforming sector in the market today just like we saw yesterday. technology is up 1.7%. consumer discretionary which includes all those tech-heavy names we think of, up 1.5% so the theme here, you can call it positive, you can maybe call it not so much we were speaking at the top of the hour with our market guests who say this could be the strength of the home trade as markets have become more alive with covid cases that we've seen

in certain states. rvs raised its price on stock from 117 to 103. they are expected to remain high on commerce strength the bio techtech is at 1.3% tod. moderna is up with hopes on a covid-19 vaccine competitor and possible foods debuting the impossible breakfast sandwich in starbuck's stores today they do carry some beyond meats offerings, but still to a pretty impressive 154 don't miss "impossible" ceo pat brown. let's start in georgia

the funeral for rayshard brooks is now underway in atlanta he was shot and killed by a police officer earlier this month after grabbing that officer's taser and attempting to run away. to texas, children's hospital in houston is now admitting adult patients this is to expand the hospitals' capacity as virus cases continue to surge cases in the state have more than doubled in the last month, and they're now more than three times higher in the houston area google calling on the tech to stop selling to police departments. four authors have resigned from the uk writing agency that represents j.k. rowling after controversial comments that j.k. rowling made on transgender issues they said they're leading with the lgbtqa community.

i'll send it back to you stocks are betting on a stronger economy as more businesses reopen. but corporate debt has been accelerating as companies battle the pandemic they estimate that corporate debt could hit 95% of gdp and they say that poses a risk to growth joining me now, adam slater at oxford economics thank you for being here >> thanks, it's great to be here as we move higher in terms of corporate debt ratios, we start to have weaker investment and weaker gdp growth. there are some estimates that would suggest, for example, that we kind of rise in aggregate corporate debt to gdp in the advanced economies you just mentioned at around 10% of gdp and could cut long-term growth

by as much as 2% per year. that's an aggregate effect i think there are other issues as well. i think we are concerned, for example, that the coronavirus crisis may crystallize some risks in the corporate debt sphere in areas like low-rated debt, and it might also lead to some new concentrations of risky debt one area that we particularly are concerned about is small firms who may, in some cases, be borrowing substantially for the first time as an attempt to get over the spike in sales because of coronavirus >> it seems obvious to me that if companies have to pay their debt back, they're not going to be investing, raising wages, whatever other uses they would typically use their capital for would be, and that has to be some kind of break on growth the break you've described is not huge, we're talking 2% per

year, but we're in a pretty low growth environment as it is, so it's not great what could governments do if they wanted to accelerate this balance sheet cleaning program how could we balance this to get back on the other side of it >> it's an excellent question. i think this is something we're concerned about, that we move when this crisis is over, into a period of extended balance sheet cleanup by corporates which will outweigh our investment over a long period. how to prevent that? well, there may be a couple possibilities. one issue you could look at would be whether or not there would be changes to the tax code, which could accelerate that process and encourage investment to stay up. that would be one issue. levels of taxation more generally could be reduced for the corporate sector, and, conceivably, governments could look at other ways of lowering business costs so that the increased amount of debt service

they will have to pay would be offset if you like the reduced other areas. governments, i think, will also have to be very wary of moving to tighten up fiscal policy, even though debt will grow rapidly this year. they need to be very wary about tightening that up again in the years after the coronavirus crisis subsides, because by doing so, you could actually accentuate what we think is already a risky situation. >> one more question on this you said that if they want to help businesses clean up their balance sheets, you could reduce taxes or lower business costs. i mean, that seems like a pipe dream in most advanced economies. i don't hear a lot of politicians successfully running for office on that platform, maybe save president trump, and his opponent joe biden is leading in the polls right now he would raise the corporate tax rate it sounds like you're implying -- i don't mean to make this political, but it sounds like, if anything, the environment for businesses is

going to get more difficult, not less so. >> well, that's a possibility, of course. i can't comment on that in terms of the detail of what people might or might not do in office, but yes, obviously, if you make a situation more difficult for business, then other things equal, you risk making this balance sheet problem worse. if you help the household sector, and thereby boost demand for companies' products, you may be able to help the corporate sector indirectly that way, and that would be more palatable, i suppose. >> i think we're seeing that already. i think that's exactly what's playing out. adam, thank you very much. it's good to have you. >> thank you very much coming up, the 6$00 -- $600 question plus tech giants are speaking out against the president's new executive order limiting immigration

we'll look at the consequences for silicon vaeyll stay with us

welcome back to "the exchange" where markets are near session highs right now. during appele's development conference, they said they would use future apps instead of other intel. it's rebounded 38% from its 52-week low. intel now sports a dividend yield of about 2.2%. while it doesn't seem huge, it's better than its competitors and one of the cheaper names in the field with about 13. compare that to apple's 37 and

microsoft's 24 josh lipton joins me now with the latest josh >> so, kelly, it's a big public fight now with president donald trump, as you mentioned there, signing an executive order that would suspend foreign work visas and green cards in certain categories, including high-skilled h1-b visas. the order is expected to take effect tomorrow and extend through the end of the year. the administration says this is about protecting american workers, now unemployed due to the pandemic and economic lockdowns, saying american workers compete against foreign nationals for jobs in every sector of our economy. i checked in with the migration policy institute they're estimating that these restrictions would block about 325,000 foreign workers and green card applicants and their dependents the administration reportedly puts the number closer to

525,000. tech relies a lot on foreign-born workers for example, in 2019 alone, amazon was approved to hire more than 3500 workers through the h1 program, google more than 2700, and microsoft, more than 1700. no surprise, many tech execs are not happy, apple's tim cook tweeting that he is deeply disappointed by this proclamation while he says he will completely stand by immigrants. >> it sounds like that order was effective immediately. >> i mentioned that i checked in with the folks at the migration policy institute in terms of wiggle room, i think you will have a fight. there will be legal challenges coming at the individual level and the corporate level. their point is these companies just put too much money and time into these programs. they expect a certain number of

workers, they have a timetable they can't allow that to just be thrown out so they would expect legal challenges, kelly, here. >> at the same time those numbers you mentioned, about 2700 or so, those numbers are not huge given these workers are probably ten, if not hundreds of thousands if you include contractors, but certainly tens of thousands for each company, right? >> yeah, i think the administration has made it clear in the executive order that this has been this unprecedented historic pandemic, that the committee has taken a big hit, and any lever they can pull to try to help the labor force rebound, they're going to do it. i think these tech companies believe while therrell activey e are relatively small, these are talented workers they need from around the world they help them create, develop and sell their goods, their services and their other point is if you don't let them into this country, they're just going to go someplace else, and is that good for the country, for the national security, if these workers go and just set up shop

in another silicon valley outside the united states? so legal challenges are coming, and we'll see how it shakes out, kelly. >> fair enough josh lipton with the latest there. major league baseball has a new reopening plan also, california saying no to online gambling. all that and more in today's edition of "rapid fire" next it's not just the biggest tech names hitting all-time highs today. tractor supply, spotify, vertex and carvana all hitting fresh highs. we'll be right back. and at-home maintenance, as well as online shopping with home delivery and special finance arrangements. so, whether you visit your local dealer or prefer the comfort of home you can count on the very highest level of service. get 0% apr financing up to 36 months on most models, and 90-day first-payment deferral on any model.

can i find an investment firm with a truly long-term view that's been through multiple market cycles for over 85 years? with capital group, i can. talk to your financial professional or consultant for investment risks and information. welcome back, she said let's catch you up on a few stories that should be on your radar today. it is time for "rapid fire" and here to break down the headlines are dominic chu, contessa brewer welcome one and all. since the march low, peloton is

up 140%, zoom up 136%, netflix up 31% take a look at fastly. that's our secret stock today up 347% if you're not familiar with them, they help get content into your home, including streaming dom, what do you make of it? >> i don't know what to make of it right now part of me is like this is great, this is fantastic we know why traders want to get into it, especially because of the covid low back in march. the reason why, these are beneficiaries if things got really bad with stay at home and everything else. what i find curious right now is why, when things are arguably getting better, the economy is somewhat getting back going again that these stocks continue to make new highs and have the momentum that they have. yes, we know there are certain hotspots in america that are seeing resurgence in covid-19 infections and hospitalizations. still, though, the idea that these types of stocks are doing

well even in an environment where covid-19 isn't as much of a threat as it was theoretically two or three months ago, speaks volumes to the kinds of trades happening right now. >> i think it's super interesting. contessa, i'm curious if you think peloton has real lasting power. why won't this be bowflex in five or six years' time? >> and think what happens when people get over their urgent fear of public places and the germs out there and we see gyms reopening, what you're going to have is peloton up against really difficult sales comps next year, for instance, combined with people returning to the gym the real question is does this have staying power are you going to continue seeing new customers coming at it in terms of zoom, though, i got to say you're branding five and six-year-olds early on in the use of zoom. it's a name brand these kids are going to grow up with.

it's not like companies are going to stop being under margin pressure they're going to feel like, hey, why are we spending millions of dollars on rent when we know we can successfully have people at least transitioning into more work from home i think zoom has staying power over the long haul >> eric, you were never a bowflex guy, right >> all of these are fads you can't think these people are going to do the same things over and over for years and years even the bike, people on zoom, they're tired of it. you have to look for a pullback. >> let's talk about major league baseball this is making major headlines it's finally abridged a 2020-2021 season the phillies confirmed eight possible tests and cases are spiking across the country, so they're facing some backlash from the athletes. so baseball is going to be a 60-game season, and i guess the guys will at least get paid, but

this has to be a worst-case scenario for the owners, right, because they'll lose money if no one is in the stands >> 60 games, this is the owner, the commissioner saying, unilaterally you're playing 60 games. that's what it is. they had gone back and forth on these negotiations they couldn't come to an agreement. this is not an agreed solution, this is the commissioner dictating. the season is 60 games you need to show up now. a lot of negotiations failed these two sides. they really don't like each other. the interesting thing will be, will these fans come will they watch the games on tv, frk, not of course, not in the stadium. yes, the owners are losing a lot of money without fans in the stands this is very, very few games everybody will get their prorated salary of about 37% that's not a lot of money relative to what you thought you would make this year >> contessa, why are you shaking your head? >> you're worried about a bunch of billionaire baseball team owners losing some money they're going back to the players. some of these guys don't have a

long career ahead of them. in fact, what if you're one of the players and this is your only professional season, this is your only chance to make money, and these owners are coming to them and saying, hey, guys, we don't have people coming into the stadiums right now so we want you to take a pay cut. i don't get that and they're the ones taking a health risk. >> i heard all these points being made the conversations i've had outside of the office with sports fans center a little more around whether or not baseball's reputation takes a hit from this given the dynamic that's played out between players, owners and the league management. is this something they can bounce back from, or does this work out to be like, hey, how much time does it take for them to come back from a strike season, something like that, is there reputation damaged i think there's people out there saying, i'm not going to watch as much baseball as i used to. >> you pointed out the ratings for the belmont over the weekend was not very good. there was no nascar on, there were no other sports on,

everyone was betting on live sports, and i just wonder has it lost some allure i don't know >> everyone thought live sports coming back to tv, everyone will be so excited. those belmont ratings were very, very low, as low as since the '90s maybe they're saying, i'm going to go outside rather than sit here and watch a baseball game on tv. it will be interesting to see what actually happens. >> i think that will be a really interesting point. speaking of sports, people are looking to gamble on something these days, and they're betting on the future of gambling itself. retailers are pouring into the betz it's a massed $77.5 million in just three weeks most take three years to reach that benchmark betz is up 3% today. maybe this is a nice entry poichb point. >> there are so many meta

elements to this betz situation. there is kind of a debate playing out right now whether or not sports gambling will be the future i think the general consensus right now is, yes, it's got a very bright one. but to your point rk, for an etf that took in this kind of money, this is the iron striking while the iron is hot. there are so many people buzzing about draft kings, and anybody tied to the sports ecosystem, that if there is really a future for live sports and for doing stuff that's maybe not in the stadium itself, maybe these types of companies do really well i would say $77 million still makes it very small in terms of the etf world. >> yes we normally wouldn't even mention it, it's so small. contes contessa, we also had california not approve sports betting on its ballot there are a couple different things going on here, but again, as people try to figure out what they want to bet on, you have an etf, you can either bet on the games themselves or you can bet on the etf

>> the thing about california, for now they've pulled this bill off. that's heard lobbying by california's tribes who want to see sports betting, but they want to limit it to bricks and mortar on their land so they're the beneficiaries of the betting. so for now who benefits? the casinos in nevada benefit because you can just cross the border into nevada and bet there. the other thing about this etf is it's a little like betting on all the poenies in a race when we see the legalization of sports betting adopted state-by-state, and now more than 20 states are on that path, you're going to see real winners and losers things will shake out. this is a little bit like saying, i don't know who will be the big winner or the loser here, so i'm going to spread my money out and bet on all of them >> but that's a good point that it will help the casinos in las vegas, certainly finally the paradigm in america has been put on its

head, especially for colleges. they will now not require sa it and act. what do you make of this >> as someone who really focused on getting good grades and good test scores as a kid, i don't know what kind of world we're living in right now. i have two sons at home. twenty years from now, do whatever you want, because apparently tests don't matter, grades don't matter. it's a societal breakdown. one of them, okay, we think these tests are unfair because of certain groups, they underperform in the tests. another version this year is we can't get access to tests. there are a lot of issues being conflated here the ivy league, everyone thinks they're a financial set of institutions they're no different than the pac 12, pac 10, sec. >> they're a little harder to

get into >> tell the moms that whose kids get into harvard >> they're still athletic conference, and you need to meet certain sat standards to meet gpa standards. if you're an athlete, this doesn't necessarily apply to you. >> contessa, go ahead. >> i don't think you can really say it's just an athletic conference, because if you're a mom and your kid gets into an ivy league school, you're proud of that regardless if they hav the sat scores to do it. >> gpa is it going to be a wide basket? what are the criteria now? >> i think what this is going to do is play a lot more into putting the onus on the admissions committees to figure out what type of factors they're going to look at as a guy who looked at a lot of test prep for college, it's a huge issue for me. another good point for my daughter coming up we'll see. >> dom, contessa and eric,

thanks, everybody. appreciate it. coming up, housing hold strong new estimates from may blow it out of the water american and united airlines both lower today american announces a secondary stock offering in addition to a billion dollars in convertible notes. both carriers are yitrng desperately to raise capital american shares are down 7% today. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ that's why usaa is giving payment relief options to eligible members so they can pay for things like groceries

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welcome back to the exchange may's new home sales were a blowout climbing 16% versus a 2% estimate median price child to

317,900. still ahead, it's unemployment and steroids and it may be set to conclude at the end of next month. while many recipients armange ki more than their original wages, they may not stay out of the market long term

while the future of work remains a question mark, one thing is certain re-opening will be a journey. that's why salesforce created work.com to help at every step of the process, with tools like manual contact tracing

to help prevent one from becoming three and three from becoming more. while displaying key information in one place on a customer relationship platform you trust. because here's one more thing we're sure of. relationships are the heart of business. so let's tackle this together. welcome back will people be deterred from returning to work if congress extends a special unemployment benefit set to expire at the end of this month? it's a $600 question

let's ask steliesman for more steve? >> it leaves people wondering what happens to the $600 benefit? on the one hasn't you don't want to get rid of the benefit that's helped with sales and poverty levels on the other hand, you've got to get the incentive back to get back to work this map shows that in every state the benefit plus the existing unemployment benefits is greater than the median wage. the result is that two-thirds of workers, these researchers estimate, are probably getting more than they did when they worked at the same time, if you were to look at another map, which we don't have right now but i tell you it's true, it shows little correlation between these extra benefits and higher unemployment rate it just hasn't really shown up in the data. the reason might be that it

takes more than a couple hundred extra dollars to keep you from going to work. economists say people want to work they're concerned about getting their jobs back in a difficult economy. they want to get their benefits back such as they may have them at their job some of them may not go to work because their kids aren't in school yet because the schools aren't open. finally, there are millions who didn't get benefits at all, even though they might have been entitled to them because of the state office problems. democrats want to continue the $600 all the way into january. republicans want to provide a $450 return-to-work bonus. there's another proposal floating around to pro rate the bonus to the state unemployment level. it comes down as the state unemployment level comes down. vice president joe biden likes the idea of increasing work sharing subsidies where you spread out the pain and reduce

everybody's hours, let the government come in and subsidize it whatever the right answer here, kelly, it's critical for the duration and the slope of the recovery to get this benefit right. >> that's for sure steve, stay right there. we're joined by stephanie aronson, director of economic studies at the brookings institution. what does your research say is the best way forward here? >> i mean, i think the thing we have to remember is that people are doing a very complicated calculus when they're deciding whether to go back to work during the pandemic, and the government also has a lot of objectives that they are trying to meet. so we want to boost the economy and reopen it. at the same time we want people to be safe and stay at home when they can to help reduce the spread of the pandemic and we want to provide stimulus for the economy so people have money to spend because the economy --

households have taken a huge income hit the benefits that have been provided, the payments to households and the ui benefits have done a very good job of replacing people's income, and there is evidence that retail sales are rebounding and people are beginning to spend again the question is sort of how can we achieve all of these goals in a way that makes the most sensense. >> do you know what that answer is >> i thinkthat it's actually hard to achieve all these goals with only one tool so right now we just have ui benefits and i think the idea of adding additional payments to workers when they return to work makes sense. in a sense there's a type of hazard pay so right now a lot essential workers cannot work from home, they have to go into the office to be able to work and these workers overwhelmingly are relatively low paid. the median paid for essential workers who typically cannot

work from home is about $30,000. and if we want these people to return to work, then i think it makes sense that we would pay them hazard pay in order to return to those jobs in addition because they do have to also balance what their family needs are, whether they have child care. so i do think it's the case and past research has shown although the ui benefits do discourage employment a little bit, they're really not the main factor that people are taking into consideration when they're trying to decide to go back to work i think trying to accomplish all these goals only with ui benefits just doesn't make sense. >> not only that but the $600 level was set because our technology isn't good enough to give people replacement pay for what they were getting paid. the goal was we'll pay you whatever you were making but they had to average it out across the country >> absolutely. they've had four months to fix

these darn systems and get it right. i read a payment that said it takes one adjustment to get it right. this idea about pro rating benefits to the unemployment rate of a given state makes sense because what you're trying to do is calibrate helping people who can't find work with whatever incentive might be there to stay home, which i think, by the way, is overstated but i will say you do not want to have it too high. i've talked to -- most of the liberal economists i've talked to said you can't leave it at 600, you have to bring it down but bring it down in a humane way that calibrates it to the difficulty in returning to work and the difficulty in the job market >> we're talking about this at the time that the president has floated the idea of perhaps more direct payments to households. there needs to be multiple different tools here and not just one thank you very much.

that does it for "the exchange" today. i will see you over on "power lunch" with tyler matheson stocks today are rallying, shaking off fears that the china deal may be at risk. nasdaq 1.5% higher right now facebook, amazon, apple being netflix all fresh all-time highs today. we've got one top strategist who says sell the greed. plus the billionaire called for new jersey to step up its reopening plans for casinos. the governor responded but tillman says the governor is doing it all wrong he will join us to explain as "power lunch" starts right now