tv Fast Money CNBC June 24, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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on by the buyers there >> big selloff today we'll be watching if it's two which we haven't had for a >> no, weuçhaven't. initialk claims and continuing going to be in7 focus. "fast money" k0ext. n i'mrj melissa lee.3 comingjup, the chart master s not one, not two but the three most defensive charts in the entire market right now. carter worth lays them out straight ahead why the next 24 hours could be a major moment of truth for the big banks. why options traders say just buy nike ahead of tomorrow's report. the s&p 500 develropping more t
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2.5% florida reporting a record jump in new cases today the governor of texas saying there is a major virus outbreak sweeping the state new york, new connecticut imposing ;s'tçftk from hotaá spots guy? the bottle i don't think there's anyway to get people to go back to what we were doing a few weeks ago i think we tried to do this too quickly. one of the things i said and i'm not splitting the at tom here, a lot of people have said it, the bullish, cmi%m!1 if you want t }zthe beach. that soon as much/ as you'd love toñ seea vaccine arounds, the corner,vs
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just not thereband the0÷numbe are going back.: that's veryfk troubling especiay when you're talking about#s an economy thatcá73% drivecmby consumer theáñes&p 500 clztoday at 3050 to me the number that keeps popping up is 2790 and the s&p 500. it makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons >> you just say, well, look where we came into a day like today where there was some disturbing news on the virus the market has been unabashedly bullish if you look at the investors intelligence numbers we're an absolute bull over bear spread in terms of positioning, at least in terms of wh/uzthe sentiment lies.c what's today's pullback? it's nothing to what i think had
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been the rally this week and late last week especially as it relates to mega cap tech i will certainly throw into the hat that i think that along with the rest, i think the markets have gotten ahead of themselves. a day like today is not necessarily a reason to start thinking about retesting march the issues on the virus are certainly disturbing little bit more.zabout the vir i would n2ñnecessarily say the reaction to the market was5 all about4rathe virus. it was an opportunity to takey profits and the;i markets probay opportunities. >> karen, what did you make of the selloff today and what did you do if anything >> similar to tim, if you step back and look at the áe less from theábottom..y@rt&hác
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the scale of the tally, this really just alctiny blip. i thinkg$that once weñr start think the market will like that. i still think the underpinning of the fed being there, to me i was looking for things to gbuy. one thing i'm looking to buy is starbucks. it closed at 73.64 today's low was 72 i didn't buy it there. i thought i may get a chance a little cheaper in the coming days i don't know if i've missed it or not i'm looking to buy that. i put on a jp morgan call spread, could be an option action kind of thing for july earnings because i thought that was a cheap way to play not just jp morgan of course but the market bouncing back i was looking for things to buy.
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i didn't quite get there yet, but i don't view anything as radically different. i think we could be one vaccine release away from the market turning around >> one vaccine headline away. >> that's what i meant, you are correct. or one headline about a treatment. or what i think we might also see is the people getting hs%gbvrñ thinkv are onv average significantly yw@er and i thinkrztherefore we'll hp scary even if we do÷9 have mors infections. >> you're shakingvóyour head. scary until there's a vaccine available to the masses. when you think about what's going on right now with this virus is that it's spreading in e
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huge éers prior and it'sxv spreading in areasyy where peop wearing masks.i when you think about the fact thatu stores and a lot oflñ re stuff wasgnopen in manyj of t partsb2in the south and southwt where placesw in the northeast were shut now they're4yhaving rolling it's not going to be dictated from the states or it's going to be a local sort of thing and it's going to be led in the private sector the summer is going to be really rocky from an economic standpoint the economic data is going to continue to stay volatile. when i think about the s&p 500, i'm hard pressed to think about anything other than the mega cap stocks that have dragged it up then i look at how poorly the russell 2,000 small caps act i look at how poorly the ten-year yield acts. i see the dollar bounced a little bit today i'm not particularly constructive as we head into the
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summer i don't mean that we're going to test those march lows, but 32 in the s&p 500 seems to be some pretty significant technical resistance but from an economic standpoint, say to yourself, listen, the market got ahead of itself it was basically pricing in a very sound recovery here in the u.s. i think what the last week or two tells us that it's going to continue to be rocky the last point i'm going to make is from a psychological standpoint, the fact that a hot spot like new york and new jersey are going to now impose zor+ tells you this is not9tgoing any time e$oon. it will remain politicized and to volatile in the stock market. yo want to go to next.w that iswybusinesses decidingzbn their own hespite what theut is doing[to shut down4f locap companies have2ú announced some measures today
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>> let's start with the breaking news in just the last half hour rocketing higheréfter hours u(u credit card issuer 3cardworks haveo mutuallyqçagreed to cal drastically market co resulting from theq pandemic. other compapzj also dealing with the rise in ñ -+nfections. apple saying it will reclose seven store locations in houston, texas, confirming those locations will close tomorrow as the lone star state grapples with a rise in covid cases like governor greg abbott in texas is calling a massive outbreak apple has closed 18 locations in various hot spots around the country.
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scesaraesar's entertainment, di have petitioned to urge the government officials to reconsider the opening of the theme park on july 11th next month. the petition was posted on moveon tmov moveon.org >> guy, you mentioned reclosing. forget it. ain't going to happen. if it happened in a part of the private sector, deciding it may be too risky to operate in this environment, that's the same effect. >> right 100% it's the same effect. it's not the governmentf,yw you we're 6reclosing. zá+te companies.ó @rt&háhp c it's people8saying do iíreally want to'. subject my family to potentially getting this[ disee at some water park>c or disney>t world. the answeráist8 probably no for fact whenqeyou're a consumer driven economy, it's problematic
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if people stop spending money. i know i listened to a hundred people tell me about the great retail sales number last month, up 15% u that jobstj number got everybody .%pthat's in the #níq,t of some i'm hard pressed@ to believe wd cont7lj that ñ$ctory.x it's note me trying to be) do piblgture> i think there's a psychological component to this as well. karen, you mentioned the mortality rate going down because it's younger people being infected unless there's a change in your attitude, knowing you're not going to die from it doesn't make you feel better about going out necessarily. does it change your behavior just because you know you're not going to die from it but you might get very, very sick from it >> i mean, if you're a college
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aged kid, i don't know that it really changes your behavior for me, you know, i have hardly left the house in three months i think, though, that even if it does, let's say we have a dent in the economic recovery and it's pushed back a month or two months, the market isn't valuing this next quarter of earnings very highly anyway i still come out with ultimately do we have either a treatment or vaccine, and i believe we do, and is the fed still there, and i believe they are i think we will see additional stimulus as well. >> let's get more on today's selloff. our next guest has a perfect "o÷ let's%ñbring in tony'ñdwyer. wezr)u$n 50 points of u:hat.
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doesn't mean you can'tkv blow through it.ñ q things that are in place, there were three things that really drove that final leg lower in march. it was you had no idea what covid-19 was you had no idea what the economic impact was going to be andg last and you hadj idea what the monetary policy wasé$goingo you know,÷that uncertaifyin thoseqpareas nowhave some xy visibility karen haû mentionedxw monetary n continue we3 believe that a vaccinesoan treatment should at least be announced and$eexist at some point thisn year.r the market has been driven by monetary policy, so you know based on the economic data, based on the monetary policy and based on the science of trying to find a vaccine and treatment in our view you want to be a buyer of weakness. >> what areas would you buy?
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>> it's the most insane thing to say on the planet, but if you believe that the fed is going to continue the stimulus -- and by the way, it has been extraordinary. you have never seen this kind of money supply growth in our history. you have never seen this kind of excess liquidity which is the money supplied plus other liquid assets against what you need to actually grow the economy and you've never seen the promise of a fed to just look into a camera on 60 minutes and say we're just printing money with that backdrop, it ultimately comes down to what karen mentioned, the vaccine and treatment. if you get that vaccine, it's like a light switch could go on. the challenge i think the market has now is that it's tryine figure out, number one, what multiple you pay for the fed to i!es you can't fixx debt wi x expznnentially' more=xebt.
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that starts to build on itself >> it depends on what bond market to your point, the ten-year treasury is telling you it's going to be a lame recovery, a meek lending environment you have well over a trillion dollars raised you have the money supply numbers growing in the 20% area. it is bananas relative to any other period in our country's history. it depends on what stimulative effect of money happens. here's the thing about the banks. when the market was going higher before that 60 minutes intervie by the fed, i believe powell was on there in part because the banks were retesting the low the thursday before that interview where he talked about ans no reasonbto expect itl to sp any time ,-soon, right before
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that, that lastj2 thursday, wel fargo was@ñrumored. to be havi to cut their beingññ7 acquired byv goldmanq then they just gripped"] it higr becbwáf that fed where it understood that the fed is going to print money until they get their two mandates how many times have i been on the show and i've looked into :-c you what they are goinghyto do intention. position and i think you could banks and+r& industrials and se of the economic sensitivejíare thi$ve alreadyvcp corrected. . >> guy, why don't you believe that paowell has the power anymore? the fed managed to lift us off
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the march 23rd lows. >> i should believe him, absolutely so many people have said why make this more complicated than it has to be tony dwyer is the head of that list i totally get it why fight what is clearly their mandate? their mandate is to make sure the is s&p 500 or the nasdaq gos higher with that said, you hit a point of diminishing marginal returns with these actions i think we're getting close to it by the way, dan mentioned the dollar had a bit of a rally. you start seeing weakness in the dollar and people might tell you how bullish, i think that could be extraordinarily bearish watch the u.s. dollar. the u.s. dollar has been weak. if that weakness continues, i do not think this time that's bullish for equities that falls at the feet of the
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fed reserve. worst performing árs in banks gear upj for their ann=) stress "q9 chris, great towbspeak with yo >> n to see you, melissa i hope everyon >>y you think thatlgdividendse across the boardn st? >> a couple of months ago i ñeú that svprovisionsqmnumbers t quarter was 'dbig. it was up? alm. what we have to look=" for in á are they étwith provisions? they're getting confident and they have a basic idea of what they're dealing with for the year if they come in same level or higher, it tells you we still
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don't have visibility. we're talking about credit loss. there's no vaccine for credit loss it's fine to talk about the fed. i agree with your previous guest. i kicked all of my equities out, common equities out on monday. i just own preferred because i want to go higher in the capital structure for a while. i don't want my feet to get wet, if you know what i mean. this is a 1930s type situation this isn't 2009. this isn't about liquidity this is about credit loss. a broad swath of america in terms of corporate credit, commercial real estate is going to take a big bite out of the banks. i think losses this year could be more than 2009. >> commercial industrial loans as well. >> right we're going to do 2.5 trillion dollar in residential mortgages
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this year. >> chris, i'm wondering how do you think we should think about provisions ìáp half ofke &hác the oard you saidée this was a#ç 1930s x scenario should they be" even higher?k sen the!banks if they hadáj to+ pt that capital "xaside? >> y/t through 2009 tj)h"rected that earningsv power at the problem and dealt with it. same thing here. you could easily see earnings this year get consumed by credit cost provisioning in 2009 was 2.5 time what is they actually charged off.l recover a lot ofc value later ñ this is about dtime.? the market come backants to seet i jdo below book v0le.
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that's4u whatlxdék i've been d. i think avery long-term opportunity to get in. you may have another opportunity. i think there will be disappointment in second quarter earnings but if the banks can give us more guidance and we get more data, especially commercial, this is very lumpy, it's not like consumer credit it's a very big, very lumpy asset class. stocks could take off again. you've seen that. >> chris, thank you. >> be well. >> chris whalen of whalen global advisors karen, what do you think >> jp morgan is my biggest position i don't believe they will change their dividend i think we'll probably hear early next week what their strategy is. we'll get some guidance tomorrow from the stress test i don't believe that for jp morgan that will be an issue we've talked a lot about wells
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for those provisions why drive blind? i think you're going to hear @kç ultimately better terms from tho bank. >> we're justfngetting started here0zez"fast yxmoney."á coming up weóy break down the0 three most defensive& charts in the entire jarket. tracki trends the one stockóñday traders are piling into during today's seé! can i find an investment firm with a truly long-term view that's been through multiple market cycles for over 85 years? with capital group, i can. talk to your financial professional or consultant for investment risks and information. tasnhu let's you transfer prup to 90 creditsnsultant - [announcer] if you've tried college but never finished, toward your bachelor's degree. - [woman] it doesn't matter how old you are, you can do it. you can finish. - [announcer] finish your degree at snhu.edu.
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but today clients were selling out of those fan favorites delta, american, united and spirit airlines all seeing a drop in popularity on robinhood according to third party aggregator robin track those stocks taking a hit tooda as a spike in coronavirus infections pulled traders away from those names companiesltgainingecpopularit trt&h that is one3fof the[]/ñmost the millenniale trading bylat. >> guy,> well, hello retail traders at home delta air lines, if you recall, there was concern, concern, their pilotsm numbers.f,iny.
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the stock trades 60 million/ñ sharesr@ú(u orc8 so a day i think you're going to get it around the 23 level. that's where you reenter a name like delta. >> amazon finished the day down only 1%. i don't know how much of a pullback this was to take advantage of, but it's interesting to see what defensive is in the minds of these traders. >> i think a lot of it has to do with sentiment i think the investment world has come to universal believe amazon t is the pre-pandemic winwinner, e post-pandemic winner this market has been a trader's delight.
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you can get in and out of those things, trains, planes, automobiles, the things that the port nen portenoy guys are in i think you're going to see a lot of that money come out of that trade then they're going to move back into the mega stocks that's what's going to happen. i think today's underperformance on the downside is pretty telling. you had money come out of the á into the microsoft, google and $eh!i'm shaking my/xhead becaue this isn't trader's delight.caue this is a case where retail traders were getting out at the bottom they didn't buy the bottom today after a 30 to 40% pullback, it's nothing to do cartwheels over. >i
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people have been ueáqr)ected on thisçpif anything, a day like ty when you got on othg states, ih think it's>( fér'terms of ?nmazon, it' ubn kefeels safe ben after. i think that trade continues. >> karen, quick comment? >> let's say you and i started a podcast where we were betting on sports for whatever reason we like their uniforms we were having a good time and we were doing it every day then the real sports gamblers who really know what they're doing started listening to what we were doing. wouldn't that be kind of ridiculous >> point taken, karen finerman well put >> guy, go it's a free for all now.
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>> first of all, i love the sugar cane gang as much as anybody and i have them on my spotify play list. >> sugar hill. >> sugar cane, sugar hill. >> is that it? >> that's it coming up, seeing red on wall street today. the chart master has the three most defensive charts in the market whé cf1 o you're first. first to respond. first to put others' lives before your own. and in an emergency, you need a network that puts you first. that connects you to technology to each other and to other agencies. built with and for first responders.
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panel. what's most interesting about gold is it may be pulling other commodities higher or at least the message is on the weaker dollar commodities move in five and ten-year clips the last time we had a commodity super cycle was 2002-2003 after a major recession. coming up, california's battle against big economy giants getting a little more head way today what does the latest move mean for uber and lyft. later we're counting down to earnings out of nike stock slices. for as little as $5, now anyone can own companies in the s&p 500, even if their shares cost more.
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california ramping up its legal battle against the gig economy. >> california's attorney general is getting ready to file a preliminary injunction tomorrow. the city attorneys filed a lawsuit against the ride sharing companies paback in may saying they were misclassifying their drivers under california's gig economy law. we've been talking about this battle for months. there's a group of drivers who want the benefits and protections that come along with being full employees lawmakers also taking notes that gig workers are on the front lines as essential workers but
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they lack those protections. on the other hand there's a group of people who enjoy their status as contractors because it gives them flexibility this is critical, of course for uber and lyft's business models, having to treat drivers as employees could force them to shut down service in california or raise prices dramatically for riders san francisco and l.a. are two of uber's biggest markets globally so the stakes are high here >>. >> we've been talking about this for a while now. we know that instacart and door
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dash have raised a lot of money with some high valuations in the last month or so but the point she makes is the most important one when they have to start classifying some of these workers and the costs associated with that, that's going to be the headwind here. i really liked lyft here i'm bullishly positioned in the name with options. but breaking 30, there's a lot of room to the downside here, especially if the reopening trade doesn't go as planned. that said, i think coming out of the pandemic with a vaccine in the next 6-12 months i think these stocks are ready to party a little bit here but they really need some clarity on this worker issue. coming up, nike on the move over the past three months plus, tesla coming in dead last in jd power's quality study. all the problems they saw ahead.
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welcome back for the first time ever, tesla included in jd power's initial quality survey, but it might have been happier to stay off that list. >> we'll talk about the tesla results in just a bit. let me show you the top and bottom auto makers in terms of quality. this is what people say after 90 days, dodge and kia tying for number one in third place it's a tie between chevrolet and ram. the one at the bottom will not be a surprise, mercedes and volvo, audi and coming in 31 out of 31 brands land rover.
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they have a lot of intense loyalty and sales remain strong. tesla is not officially ranked they did get answers from about 1300 tesla owners in 35 states based on that jd power says that the initial quality is the worst in the auto industry in terms of problems per 100 vehicles. moi most of the problems have to do with fit and finish, things like wind noise, squeaks and rattles. all of this coming on a day when the national highway traffic safety administration has launched an investigation into what's going on with the touch screens of 63,000 model s's built between 2013 and 2016, a number of owners reporting problems with those touch screens. whether that leads to a recall or a notice from the company remains to be seen as you take a look at shares of
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tesla once more, remember that next week we'll get the q 2 delivery data from tesla and whether or not they have to alter their guidance for full year deliveries. they are saying they plan to deliver 500,000 vehicles world wide this year though given what we saw with the factories shutting down in april and a number of issues around the world, the question is whether or not they still plan on keeping that guidance. >> it will be much harder to hit that year end target if they fall short in the second quarter. phil, thank you. i would imagine, karen, this doesn't change anybody's mind when they're going online and buying their tesla that there are some squeaks and rattles and things like that because of a jd power survey. >> i think that's right. also i think investors, it's not going to change their mind because the thesis is it's not a car company. i guess it doesn't matter if they come in last.
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as they make more cars, i actually think they will be able to improve that, but on a valuation i just can't get there at all. >> i think this entire panel is bearish on tesla is that right? >> i wouldn't short it. >> yeah. go ahead, guy. >> it's hard for us to ascertain who's going next in this open ended environment. there are a lot of reasons to be bearish on tesla i don't think the jd power survey is one of them. as a matter of fact, they probably look at it as some sort of badge of honor. they're down there with porsche and audi and mercedes-benz just trying to keep it real here coming up, nike set to report earnings tomorrow and options traders are betting on a slam dunk.
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nike traded well over two times its average daily options volume today we saw call volume outpacing put volume by about 3-1. the 5.1% they've averaged over the past eight corners the july 2nd weekly 105 call, those were trading for about 1.30 buyers are obviously betting that the stock is going to be above that 105 strike price by expiration which is a week from this coming friday that would represent new all-time highs number one, that would be a new all-time high. secondly, these are very cheap options. these cost a little over 1% of the stock price.
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that might be one of the reasons. options traders are looking to toy with that strike in particular >> tim, what are some of the key issues for nike? obviously china would be one and direct to consumer >> i think he nailed it. the product mix and where the exit data from may will come from china if it's 20% or knnorth, i thinki a world of stratospheric valuations, you want to own it i think nike is a name that continues to be well above the rest it continues to grow the margin base i think the company should be rerating in an environment where companies really don't have a good insight into the business this company seems to be able to give you as much as anybody and i would stay with it. >> what do you think of nike, karen? are you still in footlocker?
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>> i'm not, but i like nike. i'm not long i agree with a lot of what tim said i think they're direct to customer they've been ahead of the curve there. that will help them. i think a lot of stimulus checks will be converted or have been converted last quarter into sneakers as well as people want to be comfortable at home. >> tim's comment about widespread panic may have gone over guy's head. >> i saw widespread panic at the beacon theater on march 24th when the stock was near its lows with a seven handle on it, what i think is most interesting about their guidance tomorrow, on that last call they were already talking about china reopening. any commentary they can
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that's why we're keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. - [student] i knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. - [narrator] find your degree at snhu.edu. here's where we stand after the close of trade here, s&p 500 down by 2.6%, the nasdaq composite coming off of the record high from yesterday, down by 2%, the dow losing 710 points by the close, down 2.75% final trade, tim >> people will cut their flowers
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and nicely is a beautiful flower >> karen >> i'm actually hoping we get another down day because some of the things that have got a little too frothy are coming down the first one is starbucks i'm hoping a get a chance around 72 tomorrow. >> tim is one of those beautiful flowers i used to line up on the lacrosse field and yard sale totally. that was the weakest thing i've ever heard carter on the defensive trade, i think kroger is an interesting one here the stock trades really well the chart looks great. any bad news on the reopening, restaurants, delays, that's going to be good for kroger. >> guy >> our san francisco office has
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the great josh lipton. now we have debow. way to go. dollar gen is just a monster here >> tnkfohas r watching my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to keep you from losing a lot of money my job is to educate, teach, call me or tweet me at jim cramer sometimes a few negatives here, a couple there throw in history and you start to get
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