tv Squawk Alley CNBC June 25, 2020 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
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i think a combination of both would be the right approach. but they have voluntarily done it they agreed at least this quarter. i think that was kind of a no brainer. how many expresswcompanies have that >> we're on a hard break, so we have to leave it there, i can't wait to see the results of the stress test, we'll see if they will put a pault to give dands or not back to you. >> great segment in advance of this afternoon we're coming to you live from various locations as the s&p is down a couple points after a whip saw action in the first hour and a half. we're going to start with disney this morning, postponing their reopening of disney land possibly delaying the release of
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mulan. julia, you have a lot of color on this and i keep thinking back to when you brought bob on our show, and he talked act the challenges of reopening florida and california, but they have seen some change in that narrative. >> yes, we just had disney say they going to delay the opening of the park. the decision was made after yesterday, the number of new indicatio indications peaked here in the u.s. now the government is saying we can't tell you what the plan is
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going to be at i want to note that companies here in california were raising concerns saying they didn't think it would be necessarily safe to reopen the parks there was 17,000 employees saying they wanted him to reopen on opening the parks but business any really pointedd to the safety issues as a reason why they're not moving forward, but look at the interview and the perspective on what it would take to reopen >> they have a long history of being really responsible we were the first group to close initially when covid first hit i think there is a certain amount of trust in the brand and trust in the way we operate.
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that we will do it responsibly and do it on behalf of our guest and our cast >> i want to note they're still on track to opening their small outside of disney. >> julia, this is so interesting to me because it is speaking to uncertainty and he knows the operations intimately. some of this want expected with the reopenings that there would be some rise in testing. and we would have more people who were diagnosed with it but the problem is the mixed signals is seems to me amc first saying we're going to open up, there will be no masks
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required and then they said no masks required disney is opening, and then they're not. now they're saying if you're coming from certain places you have to self quarantine. but it is not clear if the contact tracers are in place to make sure that will happen kentken consistently if you're looking to travel, to maybe go out and spend, you can say i don't know if i can make plans to go to any of the places i'm not sure if it will be safe or if they will really be open, right? >> i think you're absolutely right, john. this is the moment that people have been dieing to get out of the house. they were hoping that things would be better and easier to plan and now as you see people are taking a step back you raise a point about movie theaters, will they release mulan on july 24th it was supposed to be the first big movie to be released and now
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it may not make sense for them to do it or they may not be able to if you have theatered in california and new york still closed we talk about it as whether or not it is a choice for disney to open or close the park, but ultimately it may be the decision of the states and the government instead >> that is a point that you have made really well this morning on squawk we used to talk about the way in which the company was having to worry about other countries, but now it is down to state level and you say that california and florida are coming at it from opposite directions? >> yeah, i mean you could not have two more extreme perspectives here. governor newsome was quick to shut down with on the other hand the florida governor is very quick to have that reopen. we also have the universal parts
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in orlando that are currently open in a moderated way with capacity limitations great to have julia here another company that these knows well, facebook, there has been talk about ad boycotts chereepi up, but the idea that pricing in the digital ad market is recovering roger joins us this morning, elevation partner. early google and facebook investor >> the point at largetize adverg their campaign pricing is good according to third party data comparing roas is it really just the hole in the donut? >> i think stop paid for profit, the name of the boycott, you know, includes roughly a dozen
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major advertisers. a couple add agencies, fashion retailers like eileen fisher, ben and jerrys, things like that there is no way it will affect the numbers at facebook. no advertiser at facebook is even 1% of the revenue this is about calling attention to the fact that the country right now is overwhelmed with hate speech. and facebook has a unique in amplifying hate speech and disinformation and you know, this is really about civil rights and so when you put organizations like that together to go out to advertisers, they're saying look, we need to have a conversation about this i think the forecast on the
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numbers are probably correct in this environment more and more of the company is moving out of line. i think what people have to face up to is that facebook's protective shield, the thing that has kept regulation away is breaking down. it is almost inevitable next year that we're going to see very serious informations. the states are digging very deep how do you value that? i don't know the answer to that. >> i thought i heard john was going topipe in, what i hear you saying, roger, is that if we get more advertisers saying they're going to boykott throucott throd of july, we know the likelihood of that -- >> that is not quite what i'm
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saying what i'm saying here is it won't affect their numbers what i think it will affect is their politics of this i think when the color of change, adl, common sense media get up together and they say i'm sorry buzz these guys are under mining the civil rights of people in the united states of america and around the world they're harming our political discourse. they're essentially enabling and empowering violence against our citizens, that will have an effect on the p.e. over time and you know i think that bear thing is about the numbers, but i do believe in the numbers. there is a survey that i think like 58% of people are thinking about getting rid of their facebook account because they're so angry >> 58% of people always seem to be talking about it and then they come back or they're talking about it on facebook, it's very -- you have been a
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critic of facebook, and i think it's interesting you wrote recently about how content modification will not fix the issue that you see here. to me the key passage that you wrote is that the solution is forcongress to implement the communications decency act were farmful content and guaranteeing a right to litigate against platforms. it is the amplification of this content that is really the issue. my question to you is how can we know if content was amplified unless we know how the algorithm works, right it has to be compared to other content. and it is a secret sauce so what level of regulation
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needs to be in place that we can even begin to consider this idea of yours >> so i think let's keep it simple i would like it to be bianary the other option is to amplify some content versus others my proposal is that yo no longer be protected by section 230 of the communications decency act it is a safe harbor for the content posted by third parties. that doesn't change the business model directly but it changes the incentives it leaves you open to litigation if your content is harmful and the notion here, this is a relatively small change but it is very targeted it is where the target exists. amplifying the content that
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engages us the most. so you have perverse incentives today. and the piece today is really about a notion that we have looked at google and facebook and accepted their notion that they're just trying and will try harder on moderation it cannot work because their networks are too big there is too big of a time delay. both of those just take so long, but the worst part is the financial incentives they're always going to structure things, and that will always under mine, and we have
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to not pretend this is an issue of good faith. >> you say we should not give them the benefit of the doubt, but now that we have advertisers starting to take a stand, and the advertisers that we were showing, the ones that are ut purt of this comm committed to this, this is just a pause for the month of july. for kcompanies like p&g saying they're going to draw a line in the sand and they don't want their content next to racist or offensive content, will we start to see the conversations that i hear right now between the world's biggesti tizadvertisersn facebook start to really push change >> this is exactly why the stop hate for profit campaign happened they want to encourage that
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conversation there is so much wonderful about facebook my whole point here is that we should have the good without the bad. and advertisers have, i think, taken the position that there was no way to effect the outcome here that facebook was too big, they didn't have enough influence, but they realize that by aligni aligning but they actually, their voice will be heard more and we can have a conversation. facebook is more powerful than any individual government. >> i heard from various sources that facebook is very concerned about the bushback and really taking this seriously and i heard that sheryl and others
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have been calling brands, trying to work with them, and figure out a compromise do you think we'll see meaning ful action about the content they're bulling down or the steps their taking? >> not a chance, for 15 years their they have prompted to do better until that stops working, but there is no reason for them to change they're saying oh, we're so story, they do this every time i really respect them.
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that is where we are that is just the debate. >> how does it work, does it become whoever has the most followers that can naturally amplify? once you amplify, haven't you shifted the platform from one where hate speech can be amplified by anyone the proposal that i was putting forward was different to the content placed the user is liable as well
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>> does it still work? >> -- they get to amplify naturally because they have the most followers a poll suggestion, they can pick up smaller ideas if people are interested in what you have to say, that is not amplification, that is having a lot of followers i run into the problem because they take something that has only a something number of followers and they amplify it. it there is no perfect solution, facebook worked well when they only had reverse chronological
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order. advertising can have a different targeting if they want to. the user simply describes what they want to buy but at the end of the day, the first step is having the understanding that the current model doesn't work ly concede in a heart beat that all alternative models are likely to be less profitable than this one. if used to be more profitable than today, but they decided that dumping toxic products into the environment was a bad thing and they were not going to permit it. we have to tell you tube, instagram, that you can't just dump toxic stuff in. >> when you talk about billing a
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coalition to raise this conversation, how many companies need to be on board? >> and carl, your guess is as good as mine what i know is the conversations are going on today stop hate for profit is an enormous topic, but there is an enormous role in politics. it is extremely open, thumb on the scale, for president trump they don't seem to be veteraned about everyone that can see them it is all relates to covid disinformation and these things -- these are topics with different c constituencie constituencies and the state of new york is leading an antitrust case that has, i want to say, 49 states and territories involved
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the european union still has their initiatives. so relative to two years ago that is a massive change and it is not partisan, right they are being led by republicans and there is a lot of anti-trust on the republican side this is not about politics, it is about what country do we want to live in having a toxic public discourse is not good for anyone >> we will see if some of the progress for your cause is real. >> can i make a comment about the market, carl >> yeah, we have to go but go ahead. >> the one thing i just think everybody needs to pay attention to the fact that if we're going to reopen the economy, we're sitting there with our curves
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relative to infections going back toward record levels, everyone else is going toward zero and the rest of the world is looking at us like a plague ship, right? if the europeans and canada, china, mexico, they are saying we can't visit them, that will be really bad for the economy. we need to pay attention to that >> i think the public officials are well in tune with how we're being perceived. >> we have been talking about facebook and there is a new high price target on the street the analyst behind that call 300 jos oinusn the other side of this break stay with us after this break. you say that customers make their own rules.
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next item - corner offices for everyone. just have to make more corners in this building. chad? your wireless your rules. only with xfinity mobile. now that's simple easy awesome. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $200 off a new samsung galaxy s20 ultra. facebook with a new high price target this week they are saying they're well positioned to exicapitalize on emerging market. i have to ask about this boycott. when you hear news of a big push like this po pause spending, do you get concerned about that price target how does it influence your
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outlook? >> great question. we don't expect much of an impact on facebook revenues. we have seen this before but keep in mind the bred and butter is small and medium size businesses the add slots will like i will be picked up by the next company in line. facebook made a big push to try to help small businesses, they're at so much risk right now. many of them are waiting to reopen how do you see the risk and the question of the advertising downturn that we're seeing as
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well >> yeah, i think the key message from our conversations is that the digital add market is recovering and from companies like shopify or wayfair, we can take the stem and indications are that facebook and instagram are seeing a crazy yulegradual steay increase >> where we are, you're at a high for facebook. you're saying that you see things recovering, we would not be talking about new highs for a stock. do you think that has to do with
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a lack of options where investors have if they want to return based on low interest rates, things like that? why are you expecting the stock to hit new highs in this environment. >> i think what we're seeing is a continuing secular rotation towards digitaltizi tiadvertisi. we think just like in online retail that online advertising is the market share swell revenues, they will be set at a bar that is ef the same as three to six years ago there is the benefit of consolidating market share to
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platforms like facebook, google, and other. talk more about where the markets are located, the valuation, and so forth. >>. >> yeah, i think they're seeing travel, events in local, i think google has a little more exposure i think the other thing is direct exposure. we see study trends in search, but facebook is making a much bigger push into shopping and payments even into gaming so we do see some drivers where
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we have not seen google be quite as aggressive. >> i think back to what we were talking about precovid talking about the company shifting from the more public sharing in the news feed to private encrypted information. are they moving away from the reliance and the news feed ads >> yes, i think that facebook had to pivot, and where we have seen that, there are two parts of the revenue recovery. one is the businessing and demand and the other is usage,
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right? people are turning to the core apps and we're seeing time spent increase quite profoundly. andti tizadvertisers respond to. for the short term that instructs facebook in sperms of their focus. but i don't think longer term they have lost focus on messaging and the so calls super app as a way to drive additional growth and usage it is just a matter of priorities >> how much do facebook's failures matter. i am thinking about facebook watch, gaming, vr on the platform all things they tried and maybe facebook gaming is just getting started so it could be unfair, but they have tried with varying
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degrees to expand the platform and they have not worked what do we take from that? >> that they're experimental, they're willing to take risks. the and the way it happens for other great technology companies. i don't think facebook is quite a one trick pony, but certainly most success comes from their apps >> now just a final question about any potential regulatory overhang we just had a myriad of ways they need change on facebook do you see regulation coming and does it impact your price
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target does it raise any red flags for you? >> it is positive longer term, in terms of restoring confidence in these platforms i think there is a separation. i think we have to separate them to some extend there is a bipartisan push in terms of regulation and overtight that could cause volatilely in the index. >> thank you so much for joining us today >> thank you >> when we come back, we'll keep an eye on these markets. a lot coming our way in the next several hours.
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holland. the supreme court gives the white house a victory allowing the country to quickly deport asylum seekers statewide hospitalizations have tripled since memorial day. macy's is cutting 3% of thoughal workforce to reduce costs as it struggles with the effects of covid-19. and the hall of fame preseason game between the cowboys and the steelers will be canceled because of the pandemic the enshrinement ceremony will be postponed until next year back over to you
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us good morning, guys i want to start a bit broader because we talk about the markets themselves a lot, but for a venture investor, what is happening right now? kind of in aftershocks of the market volatility. the dip, the economic displacement, and the pandemic effects. are you seeing start ups shutting down, running out of cash, are they holding on. >> the funny thing about this is that it depends on the sector. there is a pretty noted bifurcation these stocks digital health and wellness, but on the other side you're seeing a sharp dip coming from retail,
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hospitality, and the interesting thing is that it created a bifurcation as much as the economic impact on the economy >> does that translate to equity strategy betting on not just the overall market >> one of the factors has been the northern atmosphere to the southern recently if will compare person to bern businesses, so people will suffer for this unfortunately. that pluz the fact that we came very far and very fast from june 8th, we're just going to
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consolidate here for awhile, that is our view >> there is so much uncertainty right now and with the recent uptick in coronavirus cases and the question across the question of whether or not they should continue or be pulled back, how does it impact your outlook in the near term and next year. >> i think that the issue for us is just the outlook on the states that are affected this doesn't require a government mandate you will see less on the consumer side. business won't respond with capital spending, it was not something discounted in the market >> i'm cur grouse your perspective, from the venture standpoint it is a little different especially if you're
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early stage. so if someone is laid off from the economy and it is time to start a passion project, working from home, jump starting the economies. so at the early stage corruption is creating change so that said at the late stage you will see some of the valuation compression, and one of the interesting things to note is that you have seen year to date multiples. so there may still be value in our corner of the market >> hey, barry, one of your recent notes calling for 3100 at year end sited shifting election trends you said it threatens the tax cuts gary cohen saying he would be
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okay do you think those concerns are going to start getting more concerned in the market? >> cohen served in the administration and got tax breaks for being a government official i think reverting back to 28% would be a negative. not something that we would particular like at a time when capital spending it week so i disagree with that completely >> speaking of consumers being skiddish, it is interesting to look at some of the sectors that you have invested in you have a digital health play you invested in. digital fitness, do you see trends that are being embraced now continuing to accelerate on the other end and what are the areas that you're looking to continue to invest in.
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>> yes there was two years of digitization that happened in two months and i think you can see that where we're focusing our investment areas there is a dramatic shift toward dijization i don't know if you watched peleton, but it is around $16 billion speaking to the fact the there. in the digital health space, virtual care was at 5% of the current can current number of visits so our so it is focusing on trying to create a structural mode and it can be established on a number of sectors
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it something already moving towards the sector >> the biggest took, publicly traded, apple. they're attempting what i think is the most challenging set of platform chips every what they're doing with 5 g. you in your portfolio have a lot of software based company that's rely on platforms. how do you handicap the likelihood for growth down the line >> the interesting thing about apple is that so much of the revenue has been driven by these devices. the same is also true of the iphone, but the interesting
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thing about these trends is it is typically a 10 to 15 year and so apple has a really interesting trend ahead of it not just for the services, but figuring out how to stay top of mind forconsumer it is the nex generation that we're anticipating in the next one to three years. >> all right, so you think they're as a rule herbal you think it will be an apple form factor quickly or no? >> i have a view that apple will have a form factor that will come out and that will like i will be a wearable but we have a number of positions and we have seen other options that might look more interesting. >> watch out apple >> thank you, barry, as well >> thank you very much >> thanks. as we go to break, more pain for some of the biggest names in cruises as covid cases spike
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rdt outlook for one of the haeshis sectors in this out break, stay with us, next. by making it more affordable, that's why we're keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. - i knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. i ran to my husband with my computer and i said, "look, we can do this." - [narrator] take advantage of some of the lowest online tuition rates in the nation. find your degree at snhu.edu.
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reopening phases let's get to meg >> after announcing that for four counties those elective surgeries will be put on pause for now, governor abbott just announcing the entire state's reopening plans will be freezen. they are not moving back they are pausing where they are. he's saying the last thing we want to do as a state is go backwards and close businesses >> we'll get meg back as soon as we can the commentary did have some impact on the dow in the last half hour or so. we continue to track cruise lines and travel which are getting hit from all kinds of fronts seema has that for us today. >> with travelers coming from states with high infection rates subject to a possible quarantine
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in the tristate the industry is facing another layer of uncertainty. there's key questions around how the state ban will be enforced and if he tootels will be askedo play a role. rates have fallen to 43% in manhattan. that's well below the 91% occupancy rate we were at in june of 2019 that's led to naua number of icc hotels shutting their doors. on to cruise lines reversing early losses, they are still trading in negative territory but they aredown sharply from their respective highs on concerns about a delay in the reopening and whether the fall date will happen. guys >> all right thank you. a quick digital programming note as we head to break later today cnbc is kicking off our at work live stream series
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i'll be at home doing this stream you can register and get additional details at cnbc en.com it starts at 2:30 p.m. eastern helps you redefine what's possible... now. from the hospital shifting to remote patient care in just 48 hours... to the university moving hundreds of apps quickly to the cloud... or the city government going digital to keep critical services running. you are creating the future-- on the fly. and we are helping you do it. vmware. realize what's possible.
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law makers and all 19 markets. al m at more than 11% we'llwait and see what happens there. >> what do you think is the impact of this inconsistency and uncertainty on an industry that really depends on people largely showing up at physical locations? >> that's true a lot of what is happening here is the culinary workers union in las vegas is begging people to wear masks
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they have demanded it for the jack you have to wear a mask. they are saying it should happen for bartenders too >> all right contessa, thank you. we're also getting some news on uber and lyft. what do you see? >> the state of california plans to enforce this rule that would reclassify their drivers as employees. this was first reportedby san francisco chronicle and this is really a question of sort of how are uber and lyft going to maintain their employee base and what will that mean for the future of these companies especially once people start taking ubers and lyfts in large
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numbers again. >> starting the hour talking about disney and facebook. now lyft and uber. let's get to headquarters in the half appreciate it, carl. welcome to the halftime report our top story, the great stock market rally whether it's reaching an inflection point we'll debate the future of your money this hour with our investment committee rob is back. ubs private wealth management. also one of forbes top 100 financial advisers stocks are higher. that's coming off the worst day in a few weeks you have apple
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