that's what i finally figured out. anyway, andrew, do you want to take us out. say good-bye to jim. >> i will take you out jim, thank you joe and becky, what a week what numbers to behold >> we're up like 1,000 points. >> everybody have a fabulous july 4th tomorrow and a great three-day weekend and make sure you join us next week on monday, "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber coming to you live futures up on a second consecutive upside surprise for jobs, 4.8 million as unemployment drops to 11.1 bonds close early today, markets close tomorrow for the july 4th weekend. vice president pence will join us in the next hour. the debate will rage about how much faith we put in a job survey from the second week of

june. >> there are segments of this economy that were very strong before the pandemic and they are resuming their strength. there are other ones that are just plain baffling. i think we are all surprised that retail is doing better, but then we remember target, walmart, costco, these places added people and then the incredible one, the only sector that really seems to be being heard is the one that has the social distancing problem which is restaurants it seems the travel and hospitality people are gearing up and i think that these numbers do reflect the reopening of some states that are now troubled, but i don't want to put a negative gloss on this these are just very strong numbers and we are not where we thought we were or we would be, say, eight weeks ago we had a strong economy before, we're seeing the strength again. >> so is this kind of number an apple closing stores number or

is this a disney still on track to open in july number >> well, i think these are numbers where we really felt that there would be -- that the part of the country that is red hot or was red hot going in, california, texas, louisiana, georgia, florida, i think those were places that said, do you know what, we're done. we're done with lockdown, bring everybody back now we have to watch because they're closing bars and restaurants and that's the pressure point of the economy. that did not look good in this report but to emphasize that is to really miss the bigger picture which is that we were at a very high level of employment, we are going down rather rapidly, 17 straight weeks of jobless claims going down at this pace if they can get and this is a big if, the sun belt under control and they have not been able to, but if they get it under control and you get sports back, then really it's just going to be restaurants, restaurants is just -- is

hopeless unless you can do contactless delivery and takeout. >> but, jim, then, what stops this market? if it's not going to be 50,000 cases a day and roll backs and reopenings and concern about the economy in certain states which are not insignificant states when it comes to overall gdp, what stops this train? i mean, again, we're getting back towards levels that would put us almost at even on the s&p for the year and we've talked so often about the nasdaq, which has had an extraordinarily strong year. does it just keep going? >> well, there are certain companies that you come in and you can't fight the table, whether it be tesla, paypal, square, etsy, those are a part of the cramer covid 100 so to speak. but here is the only thing i know that could stop it, david, if you had -- we have a press conference with the president,

the only thing that could really stop it is if the employment in restaurant and travel and leisure and sports can't come back because we can't get control of the pandemic. so you have a permanent level unemployment in that area and then those people have to go get jobs and then you have people coming out of college and they've got to go get jobs and then you have the people who are using this to say we're not paying our rent, which is a substantial number of people so then mortgages default and so the next thing that will happen is we will see -- we will see bank earnings that do not reflect the rozier picture of people coming back, that will reflect the fact that there's still a lot of people who are out. but, yeah, david, i know that there's some parts of the market that are very hard to rationalize a selloff because if you can't sell off the cruise lines, what can you sell off i mean, the cruise lines are up every morning. i mean, norweigian cruise, people have been buying that since 4:00 this morning. norweigian cruise. they are not allowed to sail,

david. i mean, they are not they can't go to norway. they can't go anywhere carnival, there's nothing good at carnival. it doesn't matter. boeing, they lose orders every day, but people coming in and they buy them. look, i think that this is what we would call in law school suey generous there is a level of buying in the morning, they're buying work house group, okay? work house group has got about a 73 million shares outstanding. 120 million shares traded yesterday. and nothing happened at work house. david, carl, i mean, tesla, well, they -- take it up 100 this has never been seen and there's going to be people say, i remember 1960 -- give me a break. i've studied '68 nothing. this one is like none other and it is -- there are things that could go wrong, but, carl, i

have to tell you the level of enthusiasm, at 6:30, at 5:30, i mean, i was up at 3:20 today they were taking the cruise ships. 4:00 >> andrew saw your tweets and i saw them, too, to american and norweigian urging them to, you know, sell common now while they can. >> yeah. >> although you were hedging a moment ago about whether or not there should be a purchase on the other side of that. >> i mean, look, these companies that owe steve mnuchin a lot of money and you have buyers coming in in the morning and they are rabid. i like to fish steve liesman likes to fish. you are in there and the fish are not waiting -- you can't even put the bait on, you're throwing the hook and let me take that. it is incredible none of us has ever seen this. i want someone 30 years older than i am to come on and say that they had this at one moment when eisenhower did the

interstate highway system. because i have never seen anything like it >> maybe we will know, jim -- if hertz comes back in and tries to revideo i have that plan to sell stock. >> we have restaurants where the franchisees are defaulting and they're taking the stock i love norweigian cruise i mean, i love it. i was going to go on norweigian cruise in february, it's the greatest thing in the world, but it's closed >> well, okay. back to the level of speculation that you are talking about in the marketplace, jim. >> yeah. >> but it isn't stopping at this point. >> right you get these numbers. >> it appeared there might be a break on it, the idea that the market doesn't always go up, but your buddy who you've talked about a bunch who said that so far seems prophetic. >> we were talking about dave portnoy who says stocks go up and we are suits and we are there for the enemy.

i say that because i have a terrific brionni on that i got in milan. >> very nice. >> stocks don't always go up they don't they don't plug power doesn't always go up, but they're going up francesca holdings, big win there. carl, i don't know what to say i mean, if you are the head of american airlines, you should drill that bid for 74 million shares >> well, in the meantime, jim, you might look to treasury for some agreements on loans eamon javers has that regarding five major airlines. good morning, eamon. >> good morning, carl. this announcement out at the top of the hour from the treasury department saying that five airlines have now taken loans from treasury under the c.a.r.e.s. act the airlines are, according to the treasury department, american airlines, frontier airlines, hawaiian, sky west and

spirit they have signed letters of intent the treasury says setting out the terms in which treasury would extend loans under division a title 4 subtitle a of the c.a.r.e.s. act there is a statement here from treasury secretary mnuchin who says we are pleased that major air carriers intend to use this important program and for treasury to use its authority under the c.a.r.e.s. act to provide much needed financial assistance while ensuring appropriate taxpayer compensation so, carl, those five airlines now assigning letters of intent to take those loans from treasury under the c.a.r.e.s. act. obviously all of that underscores how brutal of an economic environment it's been for airlines with no clear sense of when that airline business can get back to normal anytime soon, carl back over to you >> buy the airlines. >> we will talk to you very shortly. >> buy the airline stocks. that's the take away eamon javers just gave you a report that says sell the airlines they are not stopping. they are not waiting for the market to open i don't know i know we have to take a break,

but i think we have to -- we have to acknowledge the astonishing things which is there you had the most negative report about airlines you could have and every one of those airlines you mentioned is flying >> you're not kidding, jim, not to mention some of the overstaffing news we have at american, delta memo this morning saying business travelers have not returned in significant ways we will talk more about that in a little bit when we come back, what an hour we've got. mccormick and the vice president going to join us here on "squawk on the street," talk about the jobs number of course. the president as you just saw a briefing at 9:30 we will get to facebook, tesla deliveries, molen aid goes public more to come don't go anywhere. ummies. the number one brand to support silky hair, glowing skin, and healthy nails. beauty comes naturally, only from nature's bounty. a lot goes through your mind. with fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice

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mccormick put up some rock solid numbers. looks like consumers are eating at home, cooking at home, doing a lot of different stuff with the spices let's find out what's really going on let's join the ceo of mccormick lawrence kursey is on. >> great to be here with you. >> lawrence, you know the acquisition terrific for you and the frenchs terrific some on wall street said since you didn't give guidance that was a sign of weakness and there is that the flavor solutions, the food service business was weaker than expected in fact, i would say from these employment numbers that flavor solutions is good and who the hell is giving guidance when you don't have any idea what's going on

tell me if i'm right about how the mistake -- mistaken analysis has kept the stock from going to 200. >> well, jim, you've got this exactly right and we've tried to tell everybody who have listened to us about the strength of food at home. you know, our second quarter that you just spoke about played out against the backdrop of the global pandemic and incredible economic volatility but our sales are up 10% in constant currency which is jieg began tick in the food industry and adjusted earnings per share were up 27% food at home has been very strong food service has been struggling, you know, obviously with the shutdown orders and people rightly wanting to avoid too much social contact, but only 20% of our business is really impacted, food away from home, the restaurants and so on. so you can do the math there

with 80% surging and 20% struggling it worked out really well for us. >> that's why i was to counterinclusive on the conference call. a couple things that i thought that were pretty amazing, the younger generation it turns out they like to cook and they like flavor so, therefore, they like mccormick. >> one of the things that we've seen is that this global health crisis has accelerated trends that were already in place younger consumers already were wanting to cook at home more and cook more fresh woods, use more spices and seasonings, they also are more engaged digitally and with e-commerce. all of these trends have been accelerated during this pandemic and these are things that we have been invested in and put a lot of marketing musclebehind. so we were well-positioned for it. >> i think we should try to explain to people when you say marketing muscle you have been very forward in advertising

where people are frank's red hot tiktok fitness challenge, how is that going >> that was great. on saturday we did a challenge actually between shaquille o'neal and rob gronkowski on social media right now grilling is what's hot and they featured a steak grill off challenge between them with mccormick grill mates and our montreal steak seasoning which by the way shot up that's on their channels right now, millions of view, great exposure and benefitting a great social justice cause. >> there are millions of new households using your product and new trailers are you getting repeat buyers after they try >> we are, jim without getting too technical about it, mccormick has gained

market share first of all in all of our major categories. we have gotten millions of new users during this period as people -- and people are coming back for more. we have had a 16% increase in household penetration and at the same time the usage rate was gone up 11%. this means consumers are trying mccormick brands, they like them enough to buy them again, they're clearly having a good experience that for many is going to be their new habit. all of us know people have been cooking more and many of us have found it to be easy, fun and economical as well >> another thing people know about you in terms of your commitment, you have long been involved in social issues, well ahead of most companies. you have the most diverse board, i believe, of any major company and at one point you say in your conference call that cook with us instagram series was well i think mark zuckerberg is

trying to reach out well, that is not necessarily his style can you stay on instagram given your commitment to racial values that very few ceos have? can you change the way facebook does business given the fact that you are so forward on these important issues >> yeah, well, jim, if i can just step back for a second on the broad issue of social and racial justice, these go state to mccormick's core values, one of our foundational principles is the power of people we look at it on three levels, the first is to set an example ourselves. so we have strong diversity goals which we recently raised, we have a commitment to diversity all the way to the top, you mentioned our board of directors, your viewers may not know but on our board of directors we have four women directors, we have two black directors, we have a north african director, we have a latina director.

one of our directors even marched and was jailed in martin luther king children's march in birmingham as a child. so we have a commitment to social and racial justice that is very strong and goes all the way to the top the second thing is we've spoken out on these issues publicly and both internally and externally, messages not just from the company but from me personally on the matters of racial justice and inclusion broadly and black lives matters specifically and peaceful protest specifically. then the third thing it's not just talk, it's action so internally we have got a broad range of development programs for women and for ethnically diverse talent, leadership, development opportunities, you know, quorums to be heard and externally we have committed money and that money is targeted towards

at-risk communities, a lot of food aid, health aid, counseling aid and inclusion aid. and that's not directed by management we have an employee panel that directs where that money goes to make sure that it really goes to the things that are greatest impact and that matter most to our diverse employee base. >> lawrence, do you think this movement is here to stay since you've been having -- you've always had it, you've always had the commitment. others are joining you do you think they're joining it because it's a good thing in the media or do you think they mean it >> no, i think people mean it. i think everyone has had enough. the george floyd incident was outrageous, there have been outrageous incidents in the past in our own home community of baltimore, freddie gray. and i think that everyone has had enough and thoughtful people are staying it's time for action. >> do you think also people are starting to realize business is leaving out. a huge percentage of people who

are consumers, who have money and who want very much a part of the mainstream and these companies aren't letting them. >> that's true frankly, we want as diverse -- there is a war for talent out there and at mccormick we want the best and the brightest at all levels of our company and, you know, the color of your skin, your religious beliefs, who you love, none of those things should matter the opportunities should go in a very meritocracy kind of way to the best talent. and that's what we're after. you know, jim, we are a diversity top 50 company as ranked by diversity inc. there's only one other food company in that group. we're proud of this area but there's much more to be done. >> i want to congratulate you on a good quarter but also for being a champion of civil

rights you've always maintained that. that's been your view. thank you, lawrence. thanks so much. >> great to be with you. >> carl, back to you. all right. jim, we are a few moments away from hearing the president talk about the jobs number for june if you missed it earlier 4.8 million. above estimates of 2.8 million we will get the vice president on our share shortly after that at at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. tesla delivery, ford numbers out, back in just a moment

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futures are rallying once again on another strong jobs number, 4.8 million. yields as well ten year now 72 basis points, the highest since june 24th. and the president is on deck "squawk on the street" continues in just a moment

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen. a leader in income, alternatives and responsible investing. welcome back time to squeeze in a mad dash before we get to an open this morning. last day of trading for the week, by the way, shopify i believe is the largest market cap canadian company, jim, right? >> yeah, david, we often talk about tesla in the last 48 hours blowing through the 1,000 level

but yesterday i don't know if you celebrate it, yesterday was canada day and shopify blew through 1,000. there is a baird piece that is very good about it, but you hear this word often but this one is for real they have an ecosystem, they have a payment system, they are the anti-amazon in some ways, they have teamed up with a lot of different companies including facebook, facebook shops, and a valuation is an issue, but it makes money. i think that's key it makes money anyway, shopify is a company that for small, medium sized businesses is a lifeline, this he do everything for you it is a company that when it was lower, 200, 300 and 400 there were multiple companies that wanted to buy them out in silicon valley because they thought it was still cheap, but these guys are proud canadians, they didn't sell and they turned out to be doing the right they think. look at that chart >> yeah. well, to your credit, jim, you

have been recommending it for much of that chart i'm as good a historian on cramer as pretty much everybody given we talk every single day, numerous times during the course of the day and you have been positive on this for a long time. >> i got in at 100. >> it's well positioned. very well positioned for the current age in which it would appear if you want to do retail you have to do it digitally, not clear there's much of a future in brick and mortar. >> that's it i had williamson ma on last night, i think there is some need for brick and for tar, but shopify if you have brick and mortar you need to have an omni channel, it's turnkey. do all the back stuff for me because if you don't have an omni channel then you are not going to get through the pandemic shopify is your way to get through the pandemic once you are in, you stay in it's not unlike etsy, you stay in, but shopify is the

remarkable people. fun. joyous canadia canadian >> those words tend to go together, jim. there is a look at the opening bell lemonade at the new york stock exchange, they are going to trade under -- i forget what the symbol is, but 11 million above the range, online insurance company. look at the nasdaq as well lmnd, jim. you've been paying attention to those guys for a while. >> good. actually, i have to tell you that a lot of the ipos have been pretty good except for the chinese ones we have watched them and they're still giving us some quality product. i point out we had a company azic recently which makes the artificial wood and that was kind of a great company, when people are doing housing and it's just going up, up, up i mean, these are not the crazy ones we are not seeing crazy ones

come public. you have to be kidding me. will you look at that. who are those red clowns who is that? i mean, you know, stand up and be counted who do we have uh-oh. oh, my god, what an anomaly. will you look at that for one moment, it's netflix someone go by 200,000 shares of netflix right now. do you think that's going to stay down? that's insane. come on. step up. what the hell. >> step up well, they are stepping up for tesla, which now has a larger market cap than netflix at $225 billion, tesla up another 8 plus percent. we got those production numbers, phil lebeau brought them earlier to us, 90,650 vehicles delivered during the second quarter of 2020 lower than a year ago, but higher than what many had anticipated. man, that is something to see, isn't it it's funny, the rich keep getting richer just a quick note ere, guys,

remember larry ellison joined the board december 28 of 2018 he had bought 3 million shares, it's not clear exactly at what price but you can take a look at that 2018 period larry ellison, what's he made another billion dollars or so? >> why not have you ever been on his island in hawaii? >> no, i have never been on his island. >> his island is amazing, but you don't go anywhere. just go visit his island sometime >> okay. >> why not >> can we take a norweigian cruise there >> a billion is still a lot. a billion is still real. >> it's not -- >> which is what jeff bezos has made so far in year. exactly. now worth 176 -- no, $171 billion, highest ever. >> and he got divorced he got divorced and gave mckenzie a lot >> david, why that --

>> not half, but she did okay. >> why does that come up >> because it cut his net worth and now he's back above where he was before he got divorced. >> i don't know anyone who has done that. >> there it is there's his pre divorce record >> that in itself is monumental. david, you know, backing lemonade, your friends at softbank softbank. >> okay, right it's a vision fund. >> they are back they are back. >> they've been -- listen, they are going to buy back a lot of stock at softbank. that's sort of a key part of their strategy don't forget they still own an awful lot of alibaba but they did sell a lot of t-mobile where is that 106.92, so above where they sold that stock at 103. that's been another great performer this year. >> they are disrupters, they backed a lot of disrupters. >> yeah, they have guys, just to hit a story that we've been following for years

now, pg&e is out of bankruptcy, i think it's worth mentioning. stock right around 9 bucks, but they have officially emerged from bankruptcy, of course, the company the largest utility in california, wildfires, the enormous liability as a result, bankruptcy, they have implemented the settlement and resolution of all wildfire claims they have elected to participate in the state's go forward wildfire fund. they have a new board of directors. and on and on as part of their, of course, emergence from bankruptcy you can take a look at the stock at this point as well and that's been something of a disappointment to many remember there were some very well-healed investors to signed up for a private placement of 3.5 billion of stock they got priced down to where the 4 billion in common was sold approximate last week at pg&e. this thing trades at a 7 billion market discount to its index

multiple after $21 million in wildfire funds that are already in place and reinsurance clearly it's at the very low end of multiples for utilities i mean, it could earn a buck this year, trades at roughly nine times. >> that's too cheap. i mean, look, i know that california has a covid problem right now but that doesn't make any sense other than the fact that there are so many laws is california if they are held harmless and they have that kind of return, they will give you a good dividend david, i think you found something there. eureka. >> i don't know. rate base is growing 8% a year and they're spending $40 billion over the next four years on getting that grid to a place where hopefully the wildfire threat will come down measurably. >> i think it's completing against tesla where elon musk tweeted that he's working on an r & a micro factory which will be good for curefac.

that's exciting people more than you're doing i'm not kidding. did you see that tweet >> jim, let's get to the president. >> we have steve mnuchin with us, larry kudlow i'd like to just announce the spectacular news for american workers and american families and for our country as a whole there's not been anything like this, record setting, it was just put out that the united states economy added almost 5 million jobs in the month of june, shattering all expectations i was watching this morning and the expectations were much lower than that. the stock market is doing extremely well, which means to me jobs. that's what it means, jobs this is the largest monthly jobs gain in the history of our country. the unemployment rate fell by more than 2 percentage points down to just about 11% we are down to the 11% number.

we started at a number very much higher than that, as you know, we broke the record last month and we broke it again this month in an even bigger way. this news comes on top of may's extraordinary jobs report which was revised upwards, by the way, to 2.7 million jobs, it was 2.5 that was last month and that was a record setter, but it actually got a little bit better, we revised it, it was revised upward to 2.7 million jobs for a combined total of 7.5 million jobs created in the last two months and that's a record by many millions of jobs, so it's 7.5 million jobs treated in the last two months alone. today's announcement proves that our economy is roaring back, it's coming back extremely strong we have some areas where we're putting out the flames or the fires and that's working out well we are working very closely with governors and i think it's

working out very well. i think you will see that shortly. in june we added 2.1 million leisure and hospitality jobs 740,000 retail jobs. 568,000 education and health care jobs. 357,000 service jobs these are all historic numbers and 356,000 manufacturing jobs, and manufacturing looks like it's ready to really take off at a level it's never been before and a lot of that has to do with our trade policy because we're bringing manufacturing back to our country and these take a long time to get going and they're now going. so these are historic numbers. i'm really happy when i see 356,000 manufacturing jobs and that's just a small number compared to what it will be soon because of our great trade deals. african-american workers really happily for me made historic

gains with 404,000 jobs added last month alone and that's a record and the second largest jump will be last month and what we have if you add the two months together it's 700,000 jobs for african-american workers added in the last two months and that's a record by a lot likewise, hispanic employment is up by 1.5 million jobs, a record by a lot hispanic employment up 1.5 million jobs 3 million more women were employed in the month of june. a record never had a number like that workers with a high school education or less made the biggest strides of all so people that have just a high school education or have less than a high school education with unemployment those without a high school diploma dropped a

full 3.3 percentage points, that's the largest drop in recorded history 80% of small businesses are now open 80%. and we think we're going to have some very good numbers in the coming months because others are opening. especially as we put the flame out, getting rid of the flame. it's happening new business applications have doubled since late march that's a number that is not even thinkable to achieve this early into a pandemic. the latest ism manufacturing report rose 10 percentage points with new orders jumping a remarkable 25 percentage points, all a record consumer confidence, which is great, that's a great number to me because that means confidence is really good if you don't have good consumer confidence, it's like life, if you don't have confidence, you

are not going to do very well. consumer confidence has risen 12 points since april and six-month job expectations hit the all time -- an all time high so think of that for a second. with all we go through, with all of the trials and tribulations that we read about every night, much of it totally fake news fortunately, and if the consumer didn't get it you wouldn't have good consumer confidence we have consumer confidence has risen 12 points since april. an all time high think of that. retail sales surged an astonishing 18%. so retail sales went up an astonishing 18% in may that's the largest increase in the history of our country that's a tremendous number 18%. the number of -- what it means

to me is jobs. the number of unemployed americans reentering the labor force rose by 43% and fewer workers are dropping out of the labor force than before and the crisis is being handled, you know, if you look we were talking this morning, something to think about, china was way early and they're getting under control just now and europe was way early and they're getting under control. we followed them with this terrible china virus and we are like wise getting under control. some areas that were hard hit are now doing very well. some were doing well and they flared up and we're putting out the fires. other places were long before us and they are now -- it's life. it's got a life. and we're putting out that life

because that's a bad life that we are talking about but all of this suggested workers are confident about finding a new job. the stock marked is soaring with the best gains in over 20 years. in the second quarter the dow jones increased 18%. this is in a quarter these are not numbers that people are heard about it's the best in 33 years. the s&p 500 increased by almost 20%, the best since 1998 for the quarter. and nasdaq increased over 30%, the best since 1999. we had a 50-month -- if you look over a long period of time, a phenomenal number, but if you look since the election we have gone up -- the dow went up close to 45%, the s&p 500 went up 47%

and nasdaq composite went up getting close to 100%. so these are numbers that are not numbers that other presidents would have and they won't have it. the only thing they can kill it is a bad president or a president that wants to raise taxes. you want to raise taxes this whole thing, your 401(k)s will drop down to nothing and your stock market will drop down to nothing. this is not just luck what's happening. this is a lot of talent. all of this incredible news is the result of historic action my administration has taken working with our partners in congress to rescue the u.s. economy from a horrible event that was formed, took place in china and came here and they could have stopped it they could have stopped it nobody likes to write that, but they could have stopped it they know it and i know it

through the paycheck protection program we have extended over $520 billion in loans to nearly 5 million small businesses, saving and supporting the jobs of tens of millions of american workers. this has been a tremendous success. levels that nobody has ever seen before, but we saved all of those -- all of those jobs and all of those small businesses and some will be large businesses soon perhaps. we also rushed urgently needed relief to millions and millions of hard working taxpayers. they got that directly and we are working on a phase four, we are working with congress, that work has started steve mnuchin can give you a little briefing, talking about payroll tax cuts, we are talking about more money being infused and it comes back to us. it comes back. it is all coming back. it's coming back faster, bigger and better than we ever thought possible these are the numbers. these are not numbers made up by me, these are numbers.

we have implemented an aggressive strategy to vanquish and kill the virus and protect americans at the highest risk. we are allowing those at lower risk to return safely to work. that's what's happening. our health experts opinion to address the temporary hot spots in certain cities and counties and we're working very hard on that the relationship with the governors is very good we made a call, mike pence made a call just yesterday and said what do you need not one governor needed anything they don't need anything they have all the medical equipment they can have. thank you, u.s. government they have all of the ventilators they have, you know, we are giving many ventilators and selling in some cases and giving where needed, but we are the ventilator king. we are now producing thousands of ventilators, thousands of ventilators, a week and we're

helping other countries and other countries are desperately in need of ventilators because this is now at 189 countries that changes all the time, that number our last count is 189 countries. and many of them don't have money and almost all of them don't have a capacity to build a ventilator which is hard to build, very complex, very expensive, very big in many cases. we have done an incredible job so we have assembly lines being ventilators and we are building thousands a week all of these people are working with governors and local officials to restore bob pisa pisani -- best practices and that's what we've done that including testing, personal hygiene. wash your hands. state officials will decide how rapidly to open their economies, that's largely up to them. if we see something that's egregious, we have gotten involved with a couple of them where we thought it was unfair we'd like to see churches opened

quickly and some of them just don't want to do that. in new york we got a great ruling from a judge, thank you judge, that they can open. if these best practices are implemented then the hot spots can be calmed quickly and we understand this horrible disease right now. we didn't understand the disease at all we did the right thing, with he closed it up we would have lost millions of lives. we have done a historic thing. we would have lost millions of lives and now we're opening it up and it's opening up far faster than anybody thought even possible and more successfully as i said, you're going to have a fantastic third quarter, it will be a third quarter the likes of which nobody has ever seen before in my opinion and the good thing is the numbers will be coming out just prior to the election so people will be able to see those numbers. the fourth quarter like wise will be extremely good and maybe most importantly from the standpoint of our country itself, next year will be a historic year. next year is going to be an

incredible year for jobs >> we're going to keep on top of the president's briefing and bring you some headlines as they develop, but obviously he comes armed with a list, jim, of strong numbers that we have tracked during the recovery, that is, the jobs number today, confidence, retail sales, q2 price action on stocks says stock market will drop to nothing if you elect a president who raises taxes and says this is not just luck that's happening, this is a lot of talent >> well, look, we know the fed has been incredibly easy so there have been very few failures despite the pandemic. we know secretary mnuchin has helped with his program 5 million different companies. so, look, there's -- they threw a lot at the economy in order to make it work and i think you could argue from that employment number it is working i don't think the stock market is lying here. i do think that there is a level of speculation, but there are also a lot of companies that i guess would have gone out of business that didn't

i think jay powell deserves a lot of credit because the credit market did not go bad. david, you know behind the scenes the credit market could have gone very bad >> yeah, there were some scary days in mid to late march, guys, that we well know about about a president leave the podium after going through all those numbers. there were scary days there. and it's interesting, of course, carl, i can't remember the last time that the president had an angry tweet for jay powell which prior to the pandemic, of course, and for years had been the case, certainly every so often talking about how rates were not low enough. and yet, interestingly as jim points out, he has helped a great deal here. i mean, jim, when you come back to a conversation on this market every time, many of the professionals i talk to just say it's the fed >> well, we had one of the -- we

had record unemployment and hertz fail they were in trouble already jcpenny failed they were in a lot of trouble. they didn't let any company fail that was doing well or if you go over what secretary mnuchin said, we're going to have business interruption provided by the government. how did the cruise lines survive and the airlines the answer is secretary mnuchin, and the federal reserve decided they weren't going to fail and they obviously should have failed given the run on them you could argue the banks should have already other than they should have had their dividends cut, but there was so much money being pumped in that they saved. so yes, there was the fed and treasury decided not to let this become a depression. and i think -- i don't know if they thought it would become a boom, and we're still going to have small and medium sized businesses in trouble because of social distancing but look,

credit where credit is due there should have been a lot more failures given the unemployment number. and they didn't. >> yeah. to david's point, the president yesterday said he was happy with jay powell didn't get a shoutout nor did mnuchin in the briefing that we heard. "the washington post" has a piece saying that white house economic officials have told advisers that because of the jobs number strength today, stimulus 4 pricing will likely be smaller and the opposition to extending the $600 cares about benefit which is opposed by trump will get firmer. >> well, look, this is the great irony, we've never had incomes go up during a period when there's been such joblessness. we should remember that there is -- there's stimulus all over the place. the economy is on steroids can you take the economy off steroids once it starts getting momentum you have to follow the states if you start seeing a lot of closure, i think it will dampen

the momentum we've got it and we've got money in -- look, we spend several trillion dollars to get it so we have that board being green. you could argue that the several trillion dollars paid off or you could argue you have to start paying off the several trillion dollars. there's so many companies we would have thought went under that didn't and they didn't because treasury secretary and chairman powell said no, we're not going to do what happened in 2008 we're not going to be like that. we're going to roll our sleeves up secretary mnuchin goes to the democrats and says what do we need to do they get something together. it was incredible to see the democrats go with the republicans. look, the green is extraordinary. let's call it the green is extraordinary. >> yeah. and listen, these programs are going to stay in place an interview with the st. louis federal reserve bank president

with the ft indicating they will make sure the markets don't freeze up entirely although, he said it's possible the country could take a turn for the worse in the future. the president may want to play down the hot spots but we know we've never had as many new cases of the virus as we have over the last few days and it's strending up and we have significant rollbacks in some of the states, jim, which raises the question we're still 11% unemployment and now we seem to have rollbacks. so there are legitimate questions about the ability of the economy to continue to sort of move out of this huge slump >> yeah. look, restaurants. jobs are bad there's a lot of the 13 million people work in restaurants the sports industry is bad but obviously the areas of the economy that are not affected by that kind of service were strong going into the pandemic. and they're regaining strength it is hard to believe that you could gain strength with

autoplexi glass service distancing, but as they said, there's a shift to the economy it looks like people are spending at home instead of the office >> it's rather amazing >> we'll watch and see if it changes, jim when we come back, as we said, we'll talk to the vice president at the top of the hour in the meantime, we got an all-time high on the nasdaq. vix 26 all 30 dow stocks are higher we're back in a moment

final stop trading with jim

on this holiday shortened weak >> kons stelation on last night. gary vander czech is probably mr. wine and then they had coronavirus hard seltzer the stock is not as much as it should be. they are back. that company will benefit if you think we're going to legalize cannabis they have a big stake in canopy. >> that's another trend we're monitoring closely meantime, the dow is clawing it way back to the 200-day where it's basically chopped around for a month. do you think that continues? >> yeah. i mean, i think it can i think that -- usually there's a selloff after the big run into the holiday, but i think people

are going to take this number and say you know what? maybe we have to ratchet up our views on some of the cyclical stocks andthat's the next leg that goes up >> energy and financials are certainly benefitting today as we get crude above 40. we know you're off next week david and i are going to miss you. >> i miss you guys already it's good to have a week off >> what's on mad tonight >> it's a disrupter. this is it in the food business. james has a billion dollar round. remember, we think a billion is not that much, but it used to mean a lot >> jim, enjoy your time off. >> thank you, guys >> stay safe we'll see you in a week. jim cramer, "mad money" at of p.m. eastern time. good thursday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and morgan brennan

it's a last day of a holiday shortened week we're looking forward to a long weekend. we're going to talk to the vice president in a few moments mainly about the jobs number, 4 .8 million jobs posted unemployment down to 11.1. and 40% from leisure hospitality. now factory orders with rick >> yes and durable foods. factory ordered for may, we were expecting 8 .5%. 8 % on the nose. this follows a minus 13% and that is the all-time low going back to 1956 and if we look at factory orders extraffic, that's up 2.6 that's a solid in your opinion, but it's still only about half what we expected that follows minus 8.5 you can see in the rear-view mirror, we have real negative numbers. all right, durable goods, we take the may reads we currently have and toss them they became the final read

15.8 was mid mond. 15.7 is the final read and 15.7, of course, follows minus 18.1 which was april's final. that was, of course, the worst of this cycle with regard to that series of data points if you look at factory durable good orders, extransportation up 3 .7 largely as expected capital goods orders, nondefense, exaircraft proxy for capital spending while the mid month was 2 .3, we lost ground to 1.6 that's something to note this is important. on the shipment side, 1.8 mid month to 1 .5. the data is pretty good. a couple small misses there. and i also want to reference trade balance there. that was the biggest negative trade balance going back to december of 2018 carl, lots of data today and the market seems to be not only chewing through it but, of course, with the closures, look for most of the best activity to

come in early in most markets. >> all right rick, thanks for that. rick santelli on the factory orders number there. morgan, it's going to be an interesting debate today markets holding up as it weighs sort of the benefits from having a stronger than expected jobs number with sort of the ramifications of what it means for stimulus i see the house has passed a $1.5 trillion infrastructure bill there's a lot of cross currents once again today >> yeah. there's a lot of cross currents. and i think no one doesn't expect -- did i say that right that's two negatives there's an expectation in the markets that we are going to get another round of fiscal stimulus what that's going to look like is the key especially given the fact that we got a jobs report that came in better than expected keep in mind you're talking about data that was collected in the middle of the month an we saw a turn in terms of coronavirus case and reopening

pauses and rollbacks in some of the most economically powered states in the country too. what does that mean? one more reason to keep an eye on something like the jobless claims numbers certainly we've spoken to a number of ceos of large multinational companies. i think of carrier yesterday that said june bounced back faster than expected and it has been like a v-shaped recovery here in the u.s., but now the question is how choppy it's going to be and how elongated a further recover is going to be and we've been hearing similar things on the restaurant and small business side. i have a feeling these are the types of questions that could come up with vice president mike pence. carl >> which we're going to get right now with will fred frost >> thank you so much and a very good morning to vice president mike pence who joins us now good morning to you. >> good morning. good to be with you. it's a great day in american

>> a strong jobs morning two months in a row of positive beats in that regard you must be pleased. >> well, we're very pleased as the president said this morning. this is evidence that the american economy is coming back strong it's a testament to the resilience and strength of the american people. it's also a testament unquestionably to the historic steps president trump took to see our nation through this coronavirus pandemic the mitigation efforts, the rescue packages, they're all confirmed today. nearly 5 million jobs created, and when we look at the number of jobs that were lost initially through this pandemic at the worst moments on 22 million jobs lost, we've cut that now by a third. 8 million americans. we lowered that number down to 11 % this is a great day for america. and it's a great tribute to the

leadership for donald trump. >> mr. vice president, the absolute numbers as you're suggesting are very impressive though that slightly misses the context, unemployment 11.1%. nicely down from mere 15% but well above the 3.5% low back in february i'm sure you'll agree that we're not quite in the moment of real celebration yet. we need a couple more months like we've just seen before we'll get there. on that note, i wondered whether you were worried that the spikes we've seen in virus cases in certain states in the last couple weeks might derail this economic recovery. >> well, let me say first we couldn't agree more that we're making tremendous progress last month nearly 3 million jobs added this month nearly 5 million jobs added we have a ways to go but the good news is because of all the policies president trump put into effect over the first three years, the foundation of

this economy is strong and i think that's what you're seeing certainly the mitigation efforts, the american people have embraced and continue to embrace in hot spots around the country, they've had a tremendous effect. certainly the rescue packages, but i have to tell you, will, the fact that this president fought ar free and far trade, unleashed american energy i think explains why now for two months in a row we've seen strong economic numbers and it's on that strong foundation that we're going to continue to move our nation forward but to your point about the pandemic, i was in arizona yesterday, texas over the weekend. i'll be in florida later today because the president's instructed us to make sure that in those states that are seeing a rise in coronavirus cases and particularly a rise in positivity rates, that we want

to make sure those states have everything they need, and, again, what i heard yesterday in arizona is that because of the steps the president took to reinvent testing now more than 33 million tests performed across the country, ppe supplies are strong testing are strong more therapeutic medicines are available every day, and we're going to stay with these states that are seeing rising cases every step of the way as they continue to take steps to mitigate the expansion of the coronavirus, but we're going to keep opening up america again and have more days just like today. >> mr. vice president, when we do see cases spike, there's always a lot of finger pointing as to who is to blame. sometimes you and the president. sometimes at the respective state governors, but i wonder whether certainly compared to february and march, given that people are much more aware of the virus and more educated,

whether individual people need to take more responsibility if they decide to go out and do things and if they do catch the virus, it's really down to them? >> well, i have to tell you, i couldn't be more proud of this president's leadership in the coronavirus pandemic remember bafr january was over, he suspended all travel from china and stood up the coronavirus task force we mobilized not only a whole of government but a whole of america approach, and the american people for those 45 days to slow the spread made incredible sacrifices. and what we see happening across the sun belt today, particularly in four states of california, arizona, texas, and florida is really a function of the fact that we're expanding testing, and it may well be that younger americans began to congregate in settings where the coronavirus

was apt to spread. that's why the president and i support efforts by the governors to modify or pause aspects of their reopening, but i must tell you the fact that we're finding that roughly half of all of the new cases across the sun belt are younger americans, it's good news that we know who has it we can take steps to slow the spread by focusing on encouraging younger americans to practice social distancing wear a mask when it's indicated or when social distancing isn't possible also, it's good news because as we all know, younger americans are much less susceptible to serious outcomes, and as we see the fatality rate today is roughly where it was in march, that's a testimony to what all the american people are doing to our health care workers, and to the steady progress that we're making every day we're one day

closer to putting this coronavirus in the past. >> you mentioned wear a mask, mr. vice president why not take the extra step and make that a national directive the tradeoff seems so attractive it doesn't take away much of our experiences as economies reopen, and there's such proven benefits on the flip side >> i don't think there's a need for a national mandate the truth is we're monitoring right now 12 states that have rising cases and rising positivity we're fully supporting efforts that governors are taking and local health officials are taking to encourage people to practice good hygiene, social distancing wear a mask when social distancing is not possible or is indicated by the local circumstances. but the reality is as you see in these economic numbers today, this economy is coming back strongly because the american people have learned along the

way how we get our country back to work. how we get back to worship, and ultimately, how we get back to school just earlier this week the cdc issued updated guidance on k-12 education on higher education and we're going to get the kids back to school this fall just every bit as much as this report today shows that america's going back to work >> goldman sachs put out research this week saying, quote, a face mask could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from gdp. does that sway your argument at all? >> i think the president said yesterday that we support wearing face masks, and every time that they're indicated or social distancing is not possible, but i think one of the keys to the historic leadership

that president trump brought to the coronavirus pandemic is we recognize that with this pandemic, it impacts different parts of the country in different ways and so we formed a partnership with governors across america to make sure they had what they needed when they needed it we gave them guidance to practice the kind of mitigation that was appropriate there are some areas of the country, in fact, large areas of the country where we have very low number of cases at all and so it's not a one-size all approach whether it be on testing or on supplies and on mitigation efforts, what we want to do is empower governors and local officials to give the guidance to the people in those communities that's most appropriate for their circumstances, but make no mistake about it, what you see today is that america's going back to work and the american people are finding a way every day to put this coronavirus farther in the past, and our part, we're just

going to continue to make sure the states that are seeing rising cases have everything they need to meet this moment for their health care workers, for testing, for therapeutics, and medicine and we have every confidence that standing on the solid foundation, billed in this economy over the last three years that we're going to continue to see america growing stronger and healthier every day. >> we had larry kudlow earlier in the week and he made clear the administration position has been that you don't want to extend the extra 60 $0 of unemployment benefit that expires at the end of this month. is that changing? does the strong number today cement the position >> you've heard the president say we have a real concern about creating an unintended incentive for people to stay on the sidelines in this economy. and that $600 plus in unemployment, many believe, as

contributed to that. now, you see the numbers today people are coming off the sideline, the increase in labor participation is encouraging but the next rescue package which we're supportive of really needs to focus on growth and getting people back in the work force but also growing this economy. that's why we want to deal can with issues like payroll tax cut which will put money in the pockets of working americans immediately and make capital available for businesses on an ongoing business we think liability protection is critical as businesses adhere to state, local, and cdc guidance that they would be able to do that without fear of an avalanche of lawsuits that would stifle our economy and all of those policies will be what we look at but the most important thing is that the next rescue package provides support for families and creates the kind of incentives to keep this economy growing strong as evidenced in

the jobs numbers today >> i get that, mr. vice president. you mentioned the numbers earlier. 22 million jobs lost since march. added back 7.5 million it's almost certain next month we won't add 15 million new jobs because the jobs won't be able what will you see to the people who lost their jobs in march through no fault of their own and didn't have a job offered to them to go back to if that extra unemployment benefit expires at the end of the month >> well, i would say to them that we're going to make sure there's unemployment benefits, but whether there's a plus up that was in the last package is the only thing being debated look, what we want to do, what president trump is determined to do is to be there for families who through no fault of their own have been impacted by this pandemic, to be there for small businesses you see the jobs numbers today, nearly 5 million jobs created. that's a lot of people that were

si sidelined and laid off because of this pandemic we made it possible through paycheck protection for the small businesses to find their way through to keep people on the payroll. now they're coming all the way back into the work force i want to tell you that as we go forward, we're confident, we're confident that states across the sun belt are going to be able to take the kind of steps necessary to stem the tide of rising cases in positivity rates. we're confident they're going to have the testing and ppe supplies and medicines to meet that moment. and i think the only long-term threat to a vibrant, american economy is the kind of policies that joe biden and the democrats are advocating. where you have a president who built this economy on a foundation of tax cuts and rolling back red tape and unleashing american energy joe biden you've got -- even

this week in the midst of a challenging times in the life of our economy, joe biden said he's going to raise taxes in america. we know his version of the green new deal, crushing the economy through regulations, crushing the american energy economy by banning fracking all those policies i really believe most americans know would be exactly the wrong prescription as we're seeing the american people standing up again and moving this economy forward. that's why president trump and i are going to fight every day between now and november 3rd to make sure that we get four more years in the white house to bring this economy all the way back and then some >> that said, mr. vice president, could there be an argument in the future to increase taxes just the stock market's right next to you, can chart of it as we speak it's already experienced the v-shaped bounce. the economy is bouncing but has

a long way to go to complete that v-shape, and i guess as we stand, it does look like the virus has hurt, and the responses by both government and central banks has hurt the have notes in society more than the haves. is there any way to increase capital gains in stocks at some point in the future given that stocks have risen so much to rebalance things >> i think the last thing that you would ever want to do for me as a skefbtive any time is to raise taxes on working class families president trump made it clear from the outset of the administration the key for this nation's future is growth. and from early on the president focussed on getting this economy growing again. more than 7 million jobs created in the first three years wages were rising and raising

most rapidly for hardworking blue collar americans. and i think as you're seeing this economy coming back, 400,000 jobs created african americans literally seeing people coming off the sidelines. it should be a strong affirmation that the foundation president trump laid of less taxes, less regulation, free and fair trade is the right prescription the democrats and joe biden is laying out their prescription for america, and it's exactly the wrong approach not just in a time of a pandemic but it's the opposite of the policies that grew this economy the last three years and they're going to get this economy growing more than ever before in the next four years. >> mr. vice president, i know we're up against the clock one final question if i may on china. have they crossed a line, past the point of no return of normal relations, if you will, by passing the national security law in hong kong this week

>> well, the national security law that china passed and now is imposing on hong kong is -- it's a betrayal of the international agreement they signed. ultimately, it's unacceptable to freedom-loving people around the world. and president trump has made it clear that we're going to be modifying our trading relationship and the trading status with regard to hong kong. and we're going to continue to speak out on behalf of the people of hong kong and on behalf of human rights of people within china china has a choice to make they can join the family of nations through not just economic engagement but through further political liberalization and human rights or they can continue down this authoritarian path, and what we hope is as the

president has done, he's stood strong against china he's stood up by impeasing tariffs on china he's been tougher on china than any other president in my lifetime but the president has always made it clear that we want a better relationship with china we want to reset the trading relationship, but we want china to recognize international agreements, to recognize the human dignity of all of their people and that includes all the people of hong kong. >> mr. vice president, we thank you for your time today and wish you a happy fourth of july weekend. >> thank you good to be with you. >> the vice president mr carl, back to you. >> our thanks to you with vice president pence. david breaking it down it does seem like the biggest pieces of news are no need for a national mask mandate which is something that goldman sachs recommended if you wanted to work down the infection rate in

this country and the other is that they support some efforts to pause the lifting of restrictions in areas where we are seeing the embers as the administration calls it >> yeah. he mentioned the goldman sachs report pence would not go there in terms of the national policy for masks. also interesting, carl, i think and morgan, in setting up the framework for the debate for the coming election. in terms of taxes at least you heard it from the president as well during his remarks and now from pence as well in terms of taxes coming from joe biden versus no tax, obviously, increases at all from the trump administration not even willing to go there at all on the idea of perhaps a rise in the capital gains tax as well we're going to be hearing more about that in the months to come as the election nears.

>> yeah. i honed in on that as well, david. you know, he did also make the point that before the coronavirus struck and we did go into this pandemic-induced recession here in the u.s. that their policies around regulatory rollbacks and tax reforms and the other things that were powering the economy and had driven unemployment to what, 50 -year low, were key. and are key now in terms of the ability to come out and recover from this. two, i also thought it was interesting. he mentioned schools the quote, we're getting the kids back to school this fall and talking about the newly issued cdc recommendations around that. it's a key part of the labor market and the employment story. whether you're talking about that extra $600 that has come in unemployment benefits from the federal government that's set to expire at the end of this month and what the next fiscal package looks like child care is going to be key for some of those workers who

are out of the work force right now to be able to go out potentially look for jobs, hopefully get rehired and come back to work i think that's a piece of the story we haven't heard very much about, but you're going to start to hear more and more about it now. >> yeah. the mayor de blasio says that new york city schools are planning on a september reopen with social distancing that's the first official comment we've gotten from the mayor about schools in the fall. david, at the same time florida numbers are out. 10,109 on thursday that's the biggest daily increase and i think it's the first trip for florida above 10k. >> those are big numbers there's no way around that and that's a record number for florida. we've heard dr. anthony fauci talk about the fact that we're on the cusp of a potentially bad situation. that doesn't seem to indicate anything but things continue to worsen and the market yet, morgan,

continues to move higher despite the rising case numbers. >> yeah. and it's moving higher today on those reopening tide trade whether it's the russell 2000 up 2.2% or leisure and hospitality names, airlines that are rallying today, really leading the charge in what is really a green day across the board with every sector in the s&p higher still to come, goldman sachs' chief economist jan hatzius. you're first. first to respond. first to put others' lives before your own. and in an emergency, you need a network that puts you first.

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the street." it's time for our etf spotlight. ticker ipo, of course. up almost 70% just in the last three months two ipos to watch this morning accolade and lemonade. we're going to speak to the ceo of accolade in a few minutes in what has been another week of solid, steady public offerings stay with us

welcome back, everybody. here's your cnbc news update at this hour. a long-time friend and confidant of jeffrey epstein has been arrested by the fbi. victims have accused her of being epstein's chief enabler. max well has denied any wrong doing. you cthe supreme court is denyig congress access to secret grand jury testimony from the russia investigation. the high court has taken on the case which means it almost certainly will not be resolved until after the november elections. donations to both major presidential campaigns surged in june joe biden raised $141 million. that's 10 million more than president trump. this is the second straight month he has outraised trump in india the malls were largely deserted following the easing of restrictions

new health precautions were not enough to lure shoppers back as new confirmed cases remain near record levels. you're up to de.at i'll see you in an hour. "squawk on the street" returns after this

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we support wearing face masks and every time that they're indicated or social distancing is not possible, but i think one of the keys to the historic leadership that president trump brought to the coronavirus pandemic is we recognized that this pandemic would impact different parts of the country in different ways. we formed a partnership with governors across america to make sure they had what they needed when they needed it. we gave them guidance to practice the kind of mitigation that's appropriate there are some areas in the country, in fact, large areas of country where we have very low number of cases at all and so it's not a one-size all approach what you see today is that america's going back to work and the american people are finding a way every day to put this coronavirus farther in the past >> that's the vice president on our show a few moments ago in response to a question about a

report out of goldman sachs earlier in the week by jusayings could -- yajan hatzius joins us this morning >> it's good to be on. >> i would ask you why did you decide to weigh into the mask debate, and response to what the vice president just said about it in. >> well, it is obviously the pandemic has been a very important issue for the economy in 2020, and in recent weeks we've continued to get pretty good economic data including this week, but nevertheless, markets are focussed on the rest that you could see another set of lockdowns in response to the deterioration in the numbers in

the sun belt, and the question is, therefore, are there potentially other lower cost ways of bringing down the virus risk and the infection numbers that could substitute for what otherwise could be another setback in the economy, and we, therefore, looked into some of these measures and specifically face masks, and it's remarkable how effective face masks appear to be in reducing virus spread and it's very interesting just how strong the evidence has become over the last few months in the early days of the pandemic back in march, if you look at what the public health community said including the w.h.o., the word was basically face masks are not that effective. there was a lot of concern about

individuals maybe hoarding them that would not be available for health care workers, but i think there's been a real shift in the thinkin thinking >> yeah. your report has some terrific charts looking at public acceptance of masks not just by policy makers but by citizens. it's all over the map depending on the country around the world you're looking at. are you getting a sense the u.s. acceptance is trending higher? >> it is trending higher nationally about 70% of americans say that they use face masks. that places the u.s. in the middle of the range of advanced economies, not nearly as high as in east asia where wearing face masks is highly common or southern europe where it's

become common in the wake of the very bad outbreaks there, but the u.s. is higher than, for example, the uk or scandinavia however, when we lock at regional evidence across the u.s., we find that face mask usage is more prevalent in the northeast of the country, probably because of the outbreaks in new york and new jersey and lower in the south where we're currently seeing the fastest virus growth so there is a significant amount of room for improvement, and we think that would have a significant impact both on the public health perspective and then in our area of expertise, namely as far as the economy is concerned because of the substitution channels. we basically find that if you did have a face mask mandate, given the estimates that we come up with, that could substitute for lockdowns that otherwise might subtract something like 5%

from the level of gdp. >> jan, there's the effectiveness of face masks and then there's the mental and psychological impact that's consumer confidence in terms of realtime data that you track, and i'd imagine you've had to get creative for your sources, what are you seeing around the country as we see case loads increase. we see some of the pauses or roll backs in reopening. what are you seeing in terms of how it's affecting consumer behavior to spend money and basically be in the world right now? >> we're seeing a lot of improvement in may and june. and i think the payroll numbers and ism numbers back that up if you look at high frequently numbers, for example, mobility measures that are based on cell

phone tracking which is, you know, one of the major innovations in data coverage in this pandemic, we've seen some stalling out and some modest declines in some of the most affected states. there's also high frequently data based only number of hourly workers that are physically working that work. we've seen some signs of stalling it's early days, and these are somewhat unfamiliar indices. it certainly seems like stalling in that sector of the economy or sideways move maybe even some declines is a bigger risk than it was four weeks ago. on the other hand, we've continued to see quite strong numbers out of the industrial sector and the ism i think was

probably the best example of that so there are parts of the economy that i think look more vulnerable than others but there's an increased level of concern you can see it >> how would you size that data up against what we got in terms of the june jobs report today? >> i think the june jobs report and the ism numbers are the classic indicators we have a lot of experience in interpreting them. we know what they mean they are impressive over the last couple months at the same time, they're a bit more steale, because the survey week was three weeks ago and things are changing quickly in the economy in this cycle. we're looking at a lot of unprecedented terms. so i think lags are a bigger issue probably now than they might have been in past cycles,

and, therefore, i would also put some weight on higher frequency numbers, even though they're more unfamiliar. >> speaking of that, jan, on jobs, do you believe that claims are -- i mean, given the stickiness of the relatively small decline week on week, are they ratifying the overall bls survey and when you clean it up and look at just core unemployment and strip out temporary layoffs and misclassifications, how was today's number >> today was very strong the payroll numbers was a large up side surprise the household survey was a bigger up side surprise. especially when you adjust for misclassification, if you look at the labor department release, they're basically saying that the unemployment rate adjusted for misclassification came down

from 16.4 to 12.1 or so. and that's the 4 % decline in the true unemployment rate and a large gain the claims numbers have been softer in recent weeks, for sure and that does deserve some weight, because this is a series that is long-established and is an administrative count. it's not a survey. it does tell you something about the layoff side. the claims numbers don't tell you the amount of rehiring that's something you have to get from the monthly unemployment and payroll report, and so i would say i put some weight on the claims numbers, but i certainly think that there's more information than the employment report despite the fact that it's more stale.

>> finally speaking of rehiring, kudlow is speaking and says the moment for the need for generous unemployment benefits he says has passed it's more important now, more appropriate to get reemployment benefits what is the picture for stimulus in the next 30 days? >> so at the end of this month, the $600 additional unemployment benefit per week expires if nothing is done from a legislative perspective. that would deal a substantial hit to disposable income it's been one really key reason why disposable income has been actually up in the second quarter relative to the first quarter despite the large labor market deterioration if the extra unemployment benefits ended in full, that would i think deal a significant hit to the economy we're assuming that we get a

partial extension of the benefits of maybe $300 a week. it does step down from the amount that is available at the moment, but the blow has softened somewhat. we're also expecting some additional fiscal measures to shore up things. another round of rebeat payments we think it's necessary to keep the recovery on a pretty good pace if we didn't get any of those things, that probably would mean a weaker growth outlook and a slower improvement in the labor market going forward. >> right july is going to be key jan, as we know. congress has a thin window to get a lot of this business done. have a great fourth of july weekend. thank you. >> thank you great to be on again well, accoladaccolade's fire is moments away. the ceo joins us ahead of the

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>> morgan, the deliveries for tests came in better than expected 90,650 vehicles delivered with more than 80,000 of them being the model 3 and y. they're easily on pace to surpass total deliveries last year, 367,000. the question is whether tesla

can deliver at least a half million vehicles this year it will need to deliver at least 322,000 vehicles in the second half of this year for that to happen keep in mind that tesla does not break down where the vehicles come from.year even though the plant in california was shout down for six weeks, we don't know how many of these vehicles came from china, were deliveries from china, but the questions are still out there and people will have to wait to get their answers until the earnings report from tesla that will probably happen late july and early august the notes are coming in, they

beat expectations by a pretty wide margin. >> yeah, i noticed a 1250 target and it almost got there this morning. thank you, phil. session high for the dow up 469. obviously a little lower than that the a the moment. mo 350up 238 and hanging on at alst1. when we started carvana, they told us

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>> a health care and benefit solution company pricing high this morning joining us exclusively is the

ceo. comcast has been using your service for year i didn't realize how important comcast was as part of your revenues having one company as a quarter of your revenues is probably not something you want >> first, thank you for having me thrilled to be here. sect secondly, you're right we have been delivering our service to you and hopefully you're happy we have been delivering the service for almost ten years now through multiple reiterations,

and we're trying to make them happier. comcast continues to glow, we doubled our customer base last year we're bullish on our future. comcast will always be a important customer for us. >> back to your customer base, your four largest customers include american airlines, one that is having a difficult time of things, is that a concern, them cutting back on a usage of your service >> this is a really important time for health care in general in this country. when you think about how profound the need is today where the pandemic made the system more complex and people are avoiding the health care system because they're worried about the virus

that is afoot, or potentially managing their conditions differently and being worried about their unemployment environment. we have become an even more valuable service in times like these when health care getting more complicated if that is even possible >> does that mean that this pandemic and the fact that companies need to navigate this pandemic, and that is changing on a weekly basis that it is a important business >> as the pandemic began,

companies started to come to us asking what public policy meant. how testing would work how they could take care of their employees, and health care went from an important benefit being provided to companies to a business continue newcontinuitye can we take care of our people and hopefully get them back to work in a safe way so in direct answer, yes absolutely we're seeing increased demand for our service. last month we released accolade covid response care. we brought on our first fortune 1000 client. that offering is about testing, education, it is about contact tracing and it is about employee certification.

all of the rest is about simplifying health care. and too often people are making decisions about their care not knowing what next -- what the repercussions of that decision are on their own health as well as on their finances so that particular need is more profound today and therefore it is buoying our demands >> you are far from cash flow positive and having earnings, when will that day come? >> in a couple years from now we'll be approaching that cash flow break even point. more importantly to us, as we do so, because we're running the business with increasing profitability and the discipline required to build a great and enduring business here we believe fundamentally that this is a $3 trillion eco system

that is about 20% of the gdp in this country and opportunity to create change in health care is massive. none of us love being consumers of the health care system in this country the opportunity is significant we want to approach that opportunity, but do so with discipline i think that is reflected. >> you're going to use the money you raid for what? >> to grow, to innovate. we have multiple new offerings all on this. we exist to do three things. we want to make consumers lives better we want to improve clinical outcomes the mission of this company is

for every person to live their healthiest life. it is about lowering costs for employers. that results in innovation with programs can we drive more clinical value for people we serve. >> congrats on your initial public offering. >> thank you for having me, i appreciate it. >> good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk alley." we're coming to you live from various locations. an interesting morning, we got a nice pop at the open the ten year opened at 73 basis points, we have seen some names go negative. >> carl,