9:30 a.m. this morning the nasdaq up about 160 points and the s&p 500 up about 50. joe and becky, what a morning. we'll see how the day ends and talk about it tomorrow morning make sure you join us tomorrow, guys "squawk on the street" begins right now. monday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." coming to you live from separate locations. kram cramer has the morning off. shanghai pops nearly 6% and hopes that policy support can offset more record covid cases in the u.s oil is above 40 and plenty of news in energy as squawk was just discussing, david but if jim was here, he would marvel, once again, at the level of interest in buying in this market >> it is, it is something to behold you know, the case count

continues to rise significantly in terms of the virus and we talked a lot and we'll hear from meg again and meg has been following it so closely for us and the market only seems to go up as the cases go up. that is leaving some people scratching their heads and others view it as we're going to get to the other side and a view of what the economy will look like and then you come back to the fed, carl, which seems to be the fuel that everybody sort of points to as the key fuel, i should say, for this market. >> yeah. morgan, lots of notes over the long weekend and we hope everybody did have a great, long weekend. more debt and liquidity and asset reflation. that was literally the title of the jpmorgan note on friday. >> yeah, for all those folks that were basically still stuck at home or not traveling and getting on airplanes, lots to digest in terms of market commentary over the weekend. i would add to the fed, i would add the expectations that do

seem to be baked in around what phase four fiscal stimulus is going to look like this tight window at the end of this month to see something worked out in congress the devil will be in the details. we don't know what those are going to be yet or how big potential package is going to be but you need to essentially or the market would like to see something passed by the end of this month before some of the extra unemployment benefits run out, et cetera something we can continue to watch. i want to go back to oil for a minute it's interesting, you've seen some of the high frequency, closer to realtime data points that investorsand strategists have been getting a little more creative with in terms of being able to track in terms of where we are at in terms of the economy here the story also with oil specifically is that you've seen weekly u.s. output fall to about 10.5 barrels per day from a near record of 13 barrels in late march. that is a rapid fire record cut in production here in the u.s.

and it's not the type of cut that we've ever really seen before going back to the data that has been tracked since the early 1980s and i think that is part of what is giving oil more of a bullish angle, if you will. but keep in mind so many u.s. oil producers still can't make money at $40 a barrel. also speaks to the 25-year low we've seen in natural gas and something else we'll talk about later in the show warren buffett and berkshire hathaway and the deal for the dominion assets, as well, carl >> yeah. commodities in general, morgan we'll talk about the buffett news later on. the atlantic coast pipeline copper five-month high today in large part on china optimism and freport, of course, kind of popping on that copper price action saying the q2 sales will be ahead of consensus. that hard asset reflation trade is pretty interesting, david david rosenberg is tweeting just now about buffett's hedge and in

his view a perfect hedge against inflation given the cash flow dynamics and also a good hedge against deflation given the hard asset. >> yeah. and there we're talking, of course, dominion energy for those who perhaps missed it over the weekend. selling what is socially all of its gas transmission and storage segment to berkshire it's the largest that we've seen mr. buffett do in some time and does include $5.7 billion of indebtedness but close to $10 billion. to your point, carl, and the point that i ges rouess rosenbe making, as well. they're injecting a shot of adrenaline and thesis in midstream which has been facing distribution cuts, weaker commodity prices and weaker outlook for volumes and esg

headwind as you might expect and questionable capital allocation decisions. there is a look at what berkshire is buying and we are calling it a $4 billion value because roughly closer to 10 when you throw debt in there, as well take that 25% stake and export and import and we know berkshire has been very quiet throughout other than being a seller of airlines >> you also have to think this is a yield play of sorts but we have interest rates that are near zero right now and whether you're talking about mid stream energy assets and infrastructure, a lot of that is structured but when you talk about utilities, you're talking about so much of the earned income going back to shareholders, too. >> we're going to dive into berkshire. obviously, a other cell cycles

today. in the meantime, let's bring in ed. what some are calling a head scratcher of a rally this morning. good morning, good to see you. >> thank you well i'm not really -- >> we have about 15 states i was going to say, we have 15 states with new records. we have new restrictions in australia and israel on covid. is this all about china jawboning or something else? >> no, i think it's to a large extent still more of the same that we started to see ever since the fed adapted qe forever on march 23rd. remember the week before that announced we are going to do $700 billion of treasury and mortgage-backed security purchases. that didn't work and within a week by march 23rd they came in and did qe forever saying they would buy treasuries and mortgage back and they basically started a program that i call no

asset left behind. they would buy corporate bonds including some of the lowest investment grade bonds that had turned into junk and that created a tremendous pressure to rebalance out of bonds and into stocks. so, we had a melt up following the melt down just prior to that i think the bull market is still in tact. i don't even view the sell-off that we had back in february and march as really a bear market. i think we're seeing maybe the tail end of this bull market with a melt down >> so, you think there's plenty left in this, on this thesis here that you have, there's more gas in this tank how much are we into the melt up process? >> if the market would take my advice and just go sideways and consolidate its gains and let earnings catch up and the economy give us a v-shape recovery and initially then maybe a swish.

but i think the fed has poured in so much liquidity to the market and the potential might look like 1999 all over again. remember that prince song about partying like it's 1999 and the market certainly has that potential. >> so then, ed, are you saying that the market is, i guess, i for lack of a better word bubblelicious right now or basically we're in an unprecedented scenario where fed and rates are concerned. do we need to think about valuations in a different way in general? >> we definitely need to think of valuations very carefully what should it be when the fed's fund rate is zero or the ten-year treasury bond yield is under 1% and the fed is leaving no asset behind. they're not buying equities directly, but they don't have to just by keeping interest rates near zero. they're forcing a lot of people to rebalance into equities

so, i think there's a potential for the p/e still to go higher in the old days before the great virus crisis as i call it, we all agreed the normal fair value p/e was somewhere around 15. now it's -- we're at 22 and the question is what is fair value and i don't know that concept makes sense in a market that is totally been collapsed by the central banks. we could be looking at a higher p/e and that is sun consiconsis the melt ups of all possibility here >> ed, where should investors be putting their money to work? equities if so, specific places you like better than others >> at this point, if you're in the equity market, i'd stay with it if you're a long-term investment, i would be rooting for the market to consolidate and it may not be that considerate. it could be a continuation of a melt up and along the way, i may

very well recommend the use of profits. but we'll see. it's still early in the game >> yeah, ed, it's david. when you say the market is totally co-opted by the central banks and quite a few who would agree with you on that at what point is it no longer co-opted do we have to wait until we see some signs that powell will get back to normalization or something else that we see >> we seem to be in a situation where the central banks keep crossing red lines and once they've done that, we're shocked to see that there are even more red lines to cross i mean, people are talking about the possibility of negative interest rates and about the possibility of the fed actually buying stocks. i mean, just the fact that we're talking about these things is incredible as you saw in the last minutes, they're talking about something called yield curve targeting

which would say not only do they want the fed's fund rate to be zero but the bond yield not to be over 1% and maybe put a specific number on it. these are the kind of conversations that suggest the fed is in it for the long haul it was a matter of six months and then the fed is out of the game, that would be wonderful, but they're talking about a couple years of persisting with near zero interest rates which is a disaster for anybody in fixed income securities and whether you like it or not if you're an investor, you have to consider rebalancing and moving out of bonds and into stocks and a lot of people are not necessarily going to feel very comfortable with that with the market already burn up so much >> and, so, ed, if policy accommodation is one part of the equation, how does the market process the economic activity if that happens because of covid or simply focus on the positive

>> i think the market is accentuating the positive for sure and while the news on the virus front is still terrible, i guess we had cases go up and now we're seeing hospitalizations go up and the concern, obviously, is that unless the new treatments are really effective, we're going to see deaths go up. i hope that we do find that more and more people take this very seriously and realize that the alternative to lockdowns, which have been absolutely horrible for the economy is wearing masks and continuing to social distance as best we can without actually staying home and locking down the economy i don't think we can go back there and i think that's what the market is basically betting on that we're not going to go back and shut the whole thing down we're going to deal with hot spots and we're going to have some states that are maybe troubled beuttut the overall ecy is a big economy and we're

seeing a lot of economic indicators bottoming in april. this could be the shortest recession of all times followed by the longest expansion that we've had of all times and we're setting records for sure >> yeah. well, as you say that, tsa traffic for thursday 764,000 is the most since the middle of march. so, your points well taken ed, thank you for starting off the week it's going to be an important one. we'll see you soon >> yes, it is. thank you. well, as coronavirus cases continue to surge, regeneron starting late-stage trials for the treatment of covid-19. meg joins us with the details. meg? >> these are moving incredibly quickly. regeneron only started in june and now they're saying they're in the late stages of testing these. what they're looking at are really two different programs. one is a prevention trial done

in collaboration with allergy and infectious diseases. that is done in uninfected people who had close contact with a patient with covid-19, house mates, for example the other is late stage trials they're going to run in patients with covid-19 both hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients with those data expected later this summer. now, these are going to be large trials for the treatment trials they're going to enroll 1,850 patients in one of them and more than 1,000 in the other. u.s., brazil, mexico and chile administered through an iv where any prevention trial they are enroi enrolling and that is given as shot not a pill, not easy to take, they are trying to figure out how to give it outside the hospital they do expect to have data later this summer. we'll stay tuned for that. i also want to update you on the case trends we have been seeing over the holiday weekend holidays are always a little bit

wonky with data recording but seeing records in states like florida over the weekend and in the united states, daily cases you cansee there have been rising hospitalizations are also starting to rise, as well and we are seeing the daily numbers of deaths still declining, experts say they do expect that to start to pick up a few weeks after the hospitalizations rate, as well in terms of the states of major concern, florida, of course, reporting more than 10,000 cases yesterday. california, arizona, texas, georgia. those all also have concern, as well multiple states, according to evercorps are on a seven-day peak from ohio, south carolina, tennessee. trends in many places in the country still going in the wrong direction. back over to you >> hey, meg, it's david. obviously, we mentioned that at the top of the broadcast with the market still going up. but i wanted to come back to

anti-virals because you know i've been making or at least focusing on one in particular, which is eidd 2801 that has been licensed by merck. of course, that is an oral anti-viral and that one also in trials right now with co virx oo patients and the same as regeneron does they're not the vaccine, but they could be very effective if they are effective in preventing the spread because they could be taken early at onset or prophylactly >> drugs specifically developed for covid-19 but as you note, this is a different form of administrat n administration for the treatment it's given as an iv in the hospital or if you are in the prevention trial given as a subcutaneous shot

that's different, of course, from oral drugs, pills, which would be a lot easier to distribute and to take so, that will be very closely watched this merck drug. >> a lot of news today to kick off the hour and the week, meg, thanks we'll talk to you in a little while. when we come back, we'll get to the uber post mates rules a new street high of tesla and probably get a nasdaq intra day high at the open when that pps jt de15 minutes.next and great serviceponse and it doesn't stop there we're also here to help look ahead that's why we're helping members catch up by spreading any missed usaa insurance payments over the next twelve months so you can keep more cash in your pockets for when it matters most and that's just one of the many ways we're here

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uber confirming it has agreed postmates that boosts in food delivery, b obvio obviously. david, a lot of discussion about whether this is an optimistic sign or consulation prize after not getting grub >> $2.6 billion worth of that stock which postmates is happy to have. postmates considering an ipo not atypical for companies to decide whether they want to go to the public route it is a private company or sell. in this case, they did back in january i know some people who were negotiating to buy stock in post mates at $1.6 billion valuation. you can just imagine then the

significant increase that has taken place and that their willingness therefore for to sell we'll keep an eye on shares of uber, carl we detail the back and forth that went on for weeks between grubhub and uber wasn't really as much about price as i said about the anti-trust risk and uber's apparent unwillingness to give grubhub what it wanted in terms of giving satisfaction to deal with any anti-trust blow back and eventually sold and it didn't take a competitor out of the u.s. market. this does to a certain extent, although you still have the three big guys, doordash, and now uber which gets bigger and grubhub which has the added fire power when that deal gets done >> yeah, i find it interesting, too, that lyft is trading higher-up 3.5% premarket and more north american ride share company. and you got to wonder what

happens with that that namname delivery on the horizon for that company and whether they stay clear and also more broadly what the beginnings of consolidation of the industry look like versus the fact that in uber's case, you know, you're talking about increased market share basically in two major markets but not that much consolidation. so the fact that the market is reacting as positively it is to it this morning is kind of curious. also what will happen in terms of the synergies and layoff and the founder of postmates, as well >> yeah. well, i mean, to your point, morgan, when you say you're going to issue 84 million shares and your stock goes up, that is not a bad thing. we have seen that in the secondary sales, as well, lately where the stock of the company and tmobile is a perfect example, has gone up desire on the part of investors to buy these things and in this

case, again, i reference 84 million shares because that is what they estimate they will be issuing to postmates to get this deal completed at that $2.6 billion valuation. >> all right, guys yeah one of the big stories to watch. opening bell in a few minutes on this monday. don't go anywhere. mhm, yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. now offering zero commissions on online trades. we charge you less so you have more to invest. ♪ did you know liberty mutual customizes your car insurance ta-da! so you only pay for what you need? i should get a quote. do it. only pay for what you need.

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global stocks rally to a four-week high and futures up big trying to take out last week's high in the u.s. as the markets take stock of the explosion in policy accommodation all around the t rld. fur future's up 400. we're back in a minute

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we talked a lot about the optimism and despite the fact in the first four days of july, 15 states here in the u.s. have posted new covid records bad enough, morgan, that over the weekend morgan did cut the gdp forecast for the third quarter and now looking for 25% versus a prior 33% because of the covid resurgence we've been seeing around the country. we do expect the economy to get back on track in september, but it's the near term economicconcd

about. >> exactly i think 4.6% contraction in 2020 is now what they're calling for. as you mentioned, looking to get back on track in september we'll see how all that goes. certainly we had a number of guests on our air in recent days and recent weeks from small businesses and restaurants to large companies, large manufactures who said this looked like a v-shape recovery and we saw things like consumer activity come raging back and now given the fact that we've seen the increase in cases and bha what is going on in the key parts of the country starting to slow down and starting to soften some of the metrics i'm talking about. perhaps not surprising to see goldman is making these revisions. david? yes, morgan, the people i speak

to through the course of the day many feel compelled to buy in terms of economic growth or whether we will see any and what next year really looks like and what kind as we head into the fall and concerns of the virus and not reflective it would seem in that green that we're going to see in the realtime exchange back in hq as we hear the opening bells, carl. >> and we watch fill in here and kind of reminds us of one of the days last week when cramer was like what are the red stocks at the bottom we'll look at that as the market does open. dominion, energy and duke and intel among the red squares at the open intel cut to sell at goldman, david, as they see second half pc and movevertical on chips and maybe more share loss. >> that was an interesting call this morning and we can see, i mean, not much of a give up there for the stock.

and i know a number of our experts in technology did focus on that story as being one of the larger ones in technology last week. of course, another story we have been following closely is facebook and the advertisers who have at least paused at this point their advertising on the platform and, yet, stock really did back off for one day, but i'm looking at it today and, of course, performing not quite as well in this first couple of minutes of the market's open as alphabet or apple or amazon or even the nasdaq comp. but it is up, as well as facebook in the face of those continued, carl, well, defections at least for now of major brand names but seemingly not impacting the core of facebook's advertising which is direct response with small and medium-sized businesses that really do rely on it for their most effective means for reaching potential users

>> yeah. and after banning last week whatsapp from hong kong law enforcement, a move that comes on the heels, of course, of china's new national security law regarding that city. morgan, it does feed the argument that facebook is getting more aggressive on policy even at the margin. >> yeah. and we're having this conversation as the nasdaq hits a fresh intra day record high to start the trading session and as the european commission is basically getting ready to release the details around what could be potentially, i think, three new laws this year and what's left of this year to address things like platforms liability, force them to essentially set up businesses, establish businesses within the eu as it looks to crack down on companies like facebook, google,

amazon and this idea of big tech anti-trust, as well. it's interesting to see that investors are continuing to shrug this off today to start the trading week i'd also just point to another stock i would point to -- another stock i would point to today is boeing. a name we watch every single day. a major dow component. it is up again today reports that the next max 737 this week operational readiness review will continue to be one to watch and focuses in on that flight control system and we get that even as the 747 jumbo final order parts have been placed and we're seeing, although i don't think boeing has confirmed that

this is the case, but we're seeing the official, potentially the official retirement of that aircraft, as well. you can see that stock is up 1.5% today we have you noted gains across the board. apple in the $1.6 trillion value market cap i don't know if we've seen in an all-time high and microsoft at $5.58 trillion right there just an enormous amount of market cap microsoft up 32% this year and apple 26% and amazon, of course, at 59% making mr. bezos wealthier than he was before what seemed to be a very expensive divorce at the time from his wife, mackenzie guys, a couple quick things specific to news crown castle one of the big

tower companies. 40,000 plus towers, of course, seen as many of these, well, american tower and seen safe money in some ways structured real estate investment trust and return very important in terms of the dividend but figuring now activism this morning we do get news from elliot they put out a long letter, a plan, as well, calling their plan for crown castle. they own a billion dollars worth of the stock reclaiming the crown, i believe is what they're calling it and the key here really gets down to capital allocation they do say crown castle is deploying more capital into its fiber business and towers even though the company's return on invest in capital and they go on to say, as well, significantly lower and multiple is a bad formula for the company says

eli elilio elliott. $40 billion fund and $70 billion market cap and still on a percentage basis not that large. but they have invested in fiber different strategy than has been pursued by the other two large tower companies and what elliott seems to be looking for and this is not unfamiliar terrain from any analysts that follow the company, as well a dialing back of the investment that continues to be made and capital investment that continues to be made by the company in fiber spend less, fund a larger dividend is kind of a simple way to put it here they're not necessarily talking about an investment. they do say they at least initially approach crown castle in may about a plan to remedy what they call its chronic underperformance it has performed quite well versus the s&p but versus those two peers american tower and spa not as well. and, so, we'll see what management has to say, if anything, at this point. we are, again, talking about a large company.

$91 billion enterprise and roughly 40,000 towers. all of these stocks, carl, have done quite well on the continued growth of 5g as it starts to be put into service and the need there for small cell sites, as well and what was seen as an expected to be more spending by the likes of tmobile now that it is a larger player with more capital that it could use. >> what amazing price on all those names. tesla 1274 as jmp this morning hikes price target from 1050 to 1,500. a new street high. morgan, i'm sure you read the note, $100 billion they see in revenue by 2025 and even as elon musk trolls the shorts over the weekend, advertising a pair of shorts with a name of all the models and at 1280, guys, that's

essentially three times 420. and 420 is a magic number in tesla history. >> yes 420 is the magic number. and my gosh, it's amazing to think that was, what, two years ago that that stock was attempting to get there in terms of a potential takeover and all the drama with the sec and twitter or tweets, i should say, unfolding. i was much more distracted by the red satin short shorts that are now apparently going up for sale at tesla. but it's also pretty surprising. we've seen some -- there you go. we've seen some other upgrades and price target increases in recent days and recent weeks and as soon as we see them, it's almost like the share price just blows through it certainly it continues to defy gravity with those shares of 5.5%, david. >> incredible. i won't go through every name,

but it's bigger than verizon and it's bigger than at&t. both of those have market caps that are below that of now the heights of $236 plus billion that tesla inhabits as one of the largest market cap companies out there. that gives you some sense here, of course, in terms of the value of the company and what investors believe is going to be, morgan, not just, of course, continued dominance in ev but other areas, as well, that tesla will be able to dominate 205% move this year. it really is staggering to watch. another stock that has been quite strong but did get a downgrade today carl mentioned intel with a key downgrade you also have bermsteen downgrading spotify. their bare base for higher podcast growth versus value and increased paid streaming and even higher subs globally.

anyhow, all of it still indicates target price at 285 and not much upside to the market this stock took off, we should point out, after don who runs it came on our air and jim cramer leading that interview and i asked her about howard stern who is a long-time creator of value at sirius xm contract is not far from being up and spotify moved into podcasting and i asked her at the time about mr. stern and whether or not spotify would ever consider employing him. this is what she had to say at the time >> howard is great, i know that he has been tied to another company. but when you look at some of the deals that we have made, you know, we do believe that the companies we've ballought and ta taa

talent we brought will help us become the number one audio platform in the world. >> i only mention it did because the stock did take off just the move since, as well, june 25th was enormous for the stock and i am told it was in part this idea, at least, of them continuing to be so aggressive, carl, in terms of going after top talent that might include the likes of a mr. stern in the future these things take a long time. that joe rogan deal, not like it happened overnight that could take potentially years to negotiate those kind of significant contracts. spotify, though, continuing to benefit enormously from that move into podcasting as you see up 80% this year despite, again, that downgrade this morning from bernstein. >> yeah, sort of offsets what goldman said on june 25th. while there are considerable risks to the podcast strategy, david. we believe the optionality leaves the risk reward in a favorable position they went from 205 to 280. there's a really fascinating debate right now regarding

podcasts and this binary outcome of whether the rewards come, as you say, with time >> yeah. and, you know, it is an investment, but they're being rewarded for it. the stock had not done much for some time. a direct listing back in the day. long-time cfo left and it has been straight up for that name in media not much else i do notice shares of disney are up this morning. morgan, they continue to focus on an open for the parks in orlando that is coming soon despite the new records that are set every day in florida or almost new records of new cases of the virus disney perhaps going to continue to forge ahead there but a lot of questions about that. >> yeah. definitely disney and apple do seem to be the blue chip proxies in terms of the reopening efforts and this idea of almost, you know, two steps forward and one step

back when it comes to, you xwknw halts on reopening and the likes. also have to wonder, they released "hamilton" for streaming this weekend maybe there is a little bump i'll leave the analysis of that one to carl. but the other name i'm watching today is harley davidson that stock is up about 6% right now. initiated by citi and keep in mind this is the u.s. motorcycle manufacturer it was struggling before coronavirus. we've seen the past five years we've seen sales decline but what citi argues is that the recent stock price collapse reflects a likely further ne nearterm collapse and gives no turn around potential by a new ceo and we have to see what other details from that name in earnings in the coming weeks carl >> all right, guys we've got an all-time high on the nas has the president noted

on twitter s&p up five days in a row it would be today that would be the longest streak since december let's get to bob pisani. >> carl, good to be back, by the way. been away for a few days really a powerful rally. 10 to 1 advancing to declining stocks you very rarely see that at the open this is part of a global rally that has been going only in thet week or so as you see shanghai just powerful rally. trying to jawbone the markets up and they are succeeding in doing that japan's nikkei up and the s&p 500 also all nice rallies across the globe here here in the u.s., broad rally. really broad as i said, 10-1 advancing to declining stocks and banks have been flattish in the last week they are upp nicely today. oil hugging at the $40 line for the last couple weeks now. it's also outperforming and

industrials and tech new high, historic high there in the tech sector semi conductor, smh also new high there that's continuing to outperform and staples and health care more defensive sectors lagging a little bit but still in the green the reopening stocks have been flattish to slightly up depending on what sector you're looking at in the last week or so everything here is essentially up 1%, 2% or more here including some of the airline stocks like united, live nation and the hotels like wynn and expedia is having a good day, as well i can describe the bull case and i can tell you why the market is rallying and you may not agree with me, though. a lot of people don't, frankly the simple case behind the bull market is the worst is behind us that is the key the second quarter was the bottom the stimulus is the key. the stimulus, the market believes, is the backstop for

the earnings recovery. if you actually look at the numbers they'reanticipating. not just more stimulus from the fed but more stimulus from the government 1 to $2 trillion package coming in july or august. the reopening story is more difficult. it's controversial a pause and some cases of reversal the bull case and the second wave of infections are going to be smaller than the first wave again, considerable debate about this, but europe is returning to higher levels of activity. the bulls say while containing the virus and the u.s. could be able to do that, as well of course, we heard about treatment and improvement in the vaccine and hopes for the vaccine. look at this global rally that we're seeing here in the last week or so, shanghai is at a two-year high. as i said, authorities there are literally trying to jawbone the markets higher and have been succeeding japan near one-month high and europe up four of the last five days and s&p 500 a five-day win streak as you heard there from carl so, the idea here, guys, is very

simple here. we can contain the virus somehow and the important thing is so far that attitude is certainly prevailing again, though, very controversial. guys, back to you. >> all right, bob, good to have you back bob pisani we'll talk to you in a bit s&p working back to the flat line for the year. dow is up 380 and back above 262. we're back in just a moment.

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>> good morning, carl. the number of borrowers in government and private sector coronavirus-related mortgage bailouts fell by the largest weekly volume since the plans were put in place. but there are some big red flags. as of june 30th, 4.58 million homeowners were in forbearance plan that's 8 .6 % of all active mortgages. now, these plans allow borrowers to delay their monthly payments. after rising the previous week, the number of loans in active forbearance plans dropped by 1,000. that brings the total volume to the lowest since the first week of may volume fell in part because more

than half of all active forbearance plans were set up with 90-day periods and began in march and early april. they would be scheduled to expire or at least be reviewed for extension in june. about 2 .2 million loans in that category the drop suggests some of the borrowers did not need an ext . extension. many more did need an extension. the bailout program under the cares act allows borrowers with government backed loans to delay their payments for at least three months and extend it up to six months and potentially a year as we see the potential for extra unemployment benefits, and the rising covid-19 cases, the numbers may get worse after getting better back to you guys >> this is a key one to watch. thank you for breaking that down for us we're going to take a quick break.

a check on the markets 20 minutes into the trading day. major averages in the green with the dow up 422 points. the s&p up just about 1.5% fifth straight day of gains. every sector in the green. the nasdaq up 1.6 %, hitting a fresh intraday record high stay with us we're back aft ts eaerhibrk. it's pretty inspiring the way families

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learn more at xfinity.com/education. s&p 3173 highest since june 10th. led by the banks and energy. a lot more "squawk on the street" continues in a moment.

after a few weeks where passenger traffic is increasing, a troubling trend for the airlines it has to do with cancellations. let's get to phil. >> the cancellations and slower bookings, that's what we're starting to hear about this is after the best week in mid march in terms of airline travel and the number of people who got on a plane that's not surprising. we knew the numbers would be strong for the fourth of july weekend. it was the best week since mid march. airline travel was down 72% compared to the 4th of july weekend last year. nonetheless, all the airline stocks moving higher today up between 2% and 5% the airlines, they are adding more flights, expecting to see more people hitting the road in

july and august, and that's why there's a dramatic increase in capacity but the bookings as well as the cancellations are seeing a surge because of the surge in coronavirus cases. cancellations is understandable since people have until the end of 2021 to take a trip if they decide this is not the right time to go away, i won't take that trip i'll hold on to the ticket and go down the road the airline index is reflecting an industry where you see greater certainty in terms of liquidity, but you also realize this is going to be a slow rebound. and the cancellations as those increase, yeah, they can recognize the revenue immediately. but they are not seeing the type of rebound they would like to see certainly in july and august and this is when they have to make as much money as they can >> yeah. it's such a key distinction right now for investors, especially given the fact that we're seeing airline stocks higher again this morning.

i'm curious, the fact that boeing is poised to do its next government test flight for the 737 max right now, if all goes according to plan over the next couple weeks, months and you see this plane recertified and back into service, back into the operation before the end of the year, is it a positive for the airlines or given the fact that we are seeing such depressed numbers for the airlines, is it a negative now >> i don't think it's a negative i think you're seeing first, if it does get recertified and you see airlines like southwest start to fly the max again, it gives much better fuel efficiency the costs will be lower than the existing 7 37s in the portfolio. they would like to use it. but you're not going to see huge numbers, morgan. i'm not sure you can see it's a positive or a negative but clearly, the airlines who have been waiting for this plane who already have the planes sitting and waiting to be upgraded, they want to get it

back into service. >> phil, thanks. fascinating numbers which we're paying attention to more and more even on a daily granular basis. phil with some of the tsa traffic numbers. in the meantime, good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and david faber. interesting morning. all the action in china had people waking up especially early as shanghai is up nearly 6% overnight busy week ahead as we take stock of the record case loads in some 15 states in the u.s along with the continued accommodation from central banks around the planet. and now ism data, morgan >> that's right. we're keeping our eyes out for that data. it looks like 57.1 is the number we're just waiting on more on that report right now. but let's turn to stocks if it is 57.1, we've returned to

expansion. that's notable the latest read on the u.s. services economy just out as i just mentioned and it's the institute monthly nonmanufacturing index consensus estimate was for a reading of 50.1. the move back over 50 means that services economy is once again expanding. i just mentioned that. it's better than expected. we're going to keep our eye on stocks here and see how the markets react. surging this morning already before we got that reading, building on last week's gains and as you can see the major averages are up 1 .6% in terms of the s&p, similar move for the dow and the nasdaq, the outperformer up 1.9% at a record intraday high. the founding partner and chief investment officer at kresit capital, is joining us to break down the data today on top of

what's been for the most part better than expected economic data in recent weeks and what it means for the markets and the moves we've been seeing. thank you for being with us today. jack, you first. i want to get your thoughts on the move higher we're seeing across the board today and what this ism services number tells us what it means for the second half of the year versus the bull case that we have already seen the bottom in q2 >> yeah. i think certainly ism number is obviously very strong. we have to keep in mind that it's a diffusion index it's relative to last month. it's not a surprise we're seeing expansion relative to last month. and so we can't necessarily compare a 57 against, say, a 57 last year and say oh, we're back

to the same level. so we do have to keep that in mind i think you're right also that economic numbers have pretty much globally beaten expectations and we're starting to see certainly the surprise indexes really move north. the question is as economists start ratcheting up forecasts or as, perhaps, maybe the reopening gets scaled back a little bit, are we going to start to see some disappointments in the coming weeks that's something that i worry about when i look at a u.s. stock market, particularly large caps that are trading in the top part of their historical range on a valuation basis >> you sound cautious. ernesto, are you >> yes the fact we haven't had a chance to hear from companies we'll start hearing from them as they report their second quarter. 80% of the s&p 500 has not given us any guidance for the last three months

so it will be interesting to see what they have to say as they have now four months under their belt of this new environment what is their outlook? right now the market is trading on a lot of hope that we will get through this and we will, but the question is how fast and so it will be interesting to hear from companies actually what they have to say about their outlook. i think that will set the tone for the next few weeks in terms of market action we're definitely a little bit cautious and trying to protect our violent us who are close to the downside with our stock picks. >> yeah. i want to get into that a little bit more first, just jack, to go back to that point second quarter earnings expected to be down 43% given the fact that we have had so much uncertainty especially where the company outlooks are concerned, is that something that's going to be the theme not only this upcoming earnings season but the second half of this year, i guess if you will, the recoupling of fundamentals where the markets are concerned.

is this still a story where it's don't fight the fed and it's major macro headlines that are going to move the markets? >> yeah. i think certainly on the don't fight the fed, i certainly agree with that. a lot of the fed headlines have already been released. so i'm not sure we're going to see too many more back flips in the coming weeks as we traverse this quarter and as ernesto mentioned, as we enter earnings season, we are going to be faced with fundamentals whether we like it or not, and so while i'm not necessarily walking away from equities, i think that certain markets like emerging markets where you've actually got a very high quality index, only 5% of emerging market stocks are below investment grade, that's roughly the same as the s&p 500, and you've got 16% or so of emerging

market index as tech now, that certainly is less than the 27% in the s&p, but substantially higher than, say, the 12 % in the russell 2000 or the eight or nine percent in developed markets. i think that what i would start to do is if we believe that we are going to have a slow and steady recovery and we are going to have to face some fundamentals plus we all know that as we enter august, investors start looking at the election, all of that coupled together suggests stay in equities but perhaps look for cheaper markets like emerging. >> ernesto, how cautious are you right now? i mean, we have an s&p that's only down 1 .7 % for the year. the nasdaq has hit an all-time high today it's up 16% for the year

and this, of course, despite the fact that we have a raging pandemic here in the united states, as we know and no end in sight. we have double digit unemployment low teens at this point. negative gdp, although expected to go strongly positive soon i just -- i guess i wonder when is the end here in terms of this incredible rally, a >> it's tough to say when the end is going to be you're going to get down days and down weeks here. and the question is right now we're getting so much conflicting information. we're getting good employment information, but, of course, that's because we're reopened. but as we may start to grow back on the reopening, people themselves, they don't need to be told by their governors and the mayors that they can't go out. they're getting scared because they see the numbers go up that's why phil was talking about cancellations of trips that were previously booked. people themselves are rolling

back their own plans to go out, and so on. so we got that tension between reopening and the raging second wave of whatever you want to call it. so it's very uncertain, and that's why we want to stay focussed and have global asset management on stocks that do well in this environment of uncertainty such as consumer staples and kroger and such as farmer's market, and newmont mining that's a gold play and with the amount of cash that's been put to work by the fed or the amount of liquidity, you know that gold, in fact, hit an all-time high last week so we want to have a diversified slightly defensive portfolio because of the uncertainty and the tension between the numbers that we're seeing here

>> you mentioned the election, it's increasingly a point of debate firms like goldman talked about the imply kagss on earnings tax. jpmorgan says a democratic win is neutral to slightly positive as the tax as a lessening of chinese tensions what's your thought? >> i think there are some pluses and minuses. i think a lot of it is perception at the margin if you consider, for example, president trump and company have really laid the groundwork for almost -- at least in the u.s., an ideal capitalist structure. right? we have low interest rates we've got low tax rates. low regulation working class americans battling each other rather than clamoring for more wages in many respects. i think from that perspective,

you've sort of hit the north pole if you will on capitalism, and so i suspect and i believe that tax rates are going to go up no matter what happens with the 2020 election. we are talking to clients about converting perhaps from iras to roths. from revisiting your estate plan for perhaps accelerating some capital gains into this year so i think that higher tax rate's just with the debt we're going to face is an inevitability, but i think that as that starts to loom, and it looks like historically speaking august is about the time when investors start really discounting the november prospects into the market, we think that that will ultimately impact the markets and notwithstanding the china relations, i think taxes are important and have a much bigger

impact on values than a potential trade deal >> i suspect we're going to talk a lot more about that. it's interesting to hear your comments that could potentially be inevitable, and i guess perhaps not that surprising when you see what's going on in terms of ballooning debt. jack and ernesto, we're going to leave the conversation there thank you for joining us today >> thank you >> thank you uber buying postmates for about 84 million shares uber is giving to postmate's sharehol r shareholde shareholders the deal not unexpected but brings consolidation in the delivery of food in the u.s. market let's get to deirdre with more who listened to the conference call >> you know as well that this isn't the deal that uber originally wanted, but it is that much-needed consolidation in a very competitive field. and investors reacting positive to that. uber shares are up sharply about

5% this morning. now, the all stock deal is worth $2.65 billion. that's above postmate's last private valuation. it gives uber the distant number four player in the food delivery place and gives them the edge in l.a. and miami uber estimates more than $200 million of run rate sinner city jis one year after the close expected in the first quarter of 2021 on an investor call about an hour and a half ago, the ceo give us updated financials he says he expects uber eats gross bookings to double year over year in q2. keeping that momentum we've seen he also said the eats business is actually profitable on an adjust adjust adjust adjusted ebita basis grub hub has a track record of profitability. it's difficult to see how acquiring another money burning

company and turning away from ride sharing gets uber to profitability any time soon, but the ceo says it's on the way two sources familiar with postmates financials told me the company was tight on cash and needed to do a deal or move forward with that ipo it had planned. postmates says that's, quote, explicitly not true and they were in a solid cash position. but i do want to highlight this line in the investor deck this morning. it says, quote, uber has committed to provide bridge financing to postmates in the process of obtaining regulatory approvals. guys, we talked about this earlier this morning you don't expect the same kind of anti-trust concerns about this deal as you might have in the uber grub hub deal because postmates is a much smaller player >> yeah. just about 8 % of meal delivery. what a day fascinating new chapter in uber's life and postmates. deirdre watching that deal this morning. dow is up 311.

vix up a touch when we come back the houston restaurant owner that opted to close despite the state's go ahead as texas rolls back reopenings 'lexplain his decision to close early after the break.

the houston restaurant real closing over safety concerns for staff. the ceo joins us to talk about the situation in texas as it

pertains to restaurants and services good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> it sounds like you've been on a journey since the pandemic began. can you talk about what happened and the decisions you've made leading up to today? >> basically to change the way we run our service and restaurant overnight, since this stuff started we didn't know what to do, so within 48 hours we became a takeout restaurant and we have just been trying to adapt day today. >> why the reclosure after getting the green light from the state? >> well, we were reopened at 50% but we kept seeing other restaurants, especially other restaurants in the area that we were in having positive tests come back, and a lot of the restaurants are guys that i

know they're friends of mine, and just speaking with them, and seeing that a lot of the positive test results were coming back, that people weren't even sick, they were asymptomatic we decided to take things into our own hands and get everyone tested and then take it from there. >> ryan, it's morgan i'm looking at the notes, and the initial shutdown it looks like you furloughed almost all your staff when you decided to reopen, did you hire people back and now that you're having to reclose again, what does it mean for those employees? >> well, we got pretty much everybody back we reopened at 50%, and then we closed we only closed 12 days we decided okay, enough is enough we set up appointments for everyone to get tested and once everyone test results came back, we are opening up today at 50%

>> okay. i'm also curious about two of the other things we've been hearing about with restaurants and small businesses around the country as we've seen reopening efforts take root. the first is liability how concerned are you about that and how much would it help to see the government put protections in place, and the second one is business interruption insurance whether you've had issues on that front, and if it would help if you saw the government step in or some sort of policy put in place that would i guess help with getting refunded on that front. >> that's why we closed. there's been zero guidance or zero leadership when it comes to -- i'm a cook i'm not a doctor or a scientist or a government official, so i really don't know what is going on like i said, we're doing things

day today here business interruption insurance doesn't exist. >> ryan, in new york where i know a number of restaurant people, it's a bleak picture restaurants haven't been able to open inside, even when they do, the idea of 50%, a lot of them aren't going to make it. i mention that because i'm curious, how long can you go either being shut or only operating at 50% capacity before it just becomes too long, not making money >> well, making money in restaurants is tough sometimes at 100%. i've said this before. i don't know where this 50% thing came from. and even when you're running at 50 %, you're still not at a true 50% because as long as i have a two-top and a four-top and

there's two people sitting at the four-top, i'm losing real estate in my restaurant every time someone sits down unless the numbers are exact every time we seat the restaurant, which they never are, i'm losing. >>. >> how nimble are you in terms of being able to change big things, change the footprint, things that would enable you to have a higher return on your capital? >> well, only being able to open at 50% and trying to stick with the six foot rule, you have to be creative. we've moved tables even during service, we try to jockey the tables around so we can get the right amount of people in there, but still my staff is still safe, and my guests are still safe it's a constant struggle to try

to figure out how to do it properly >> yeah. it was not an easy business even before all of this >> no. not at all >> last question, i wonder, the stock market has this belief that the economy can operate going into the rest of the year and next year by shutting down small pieces rather than large pieces of the economy. do you get the sense that's possible at least in houston >> you know, that's a tough question i don't know we're literally -- things are changing so fast it's day today for us. every day we wake up, sometimes at the beginning it was hour to hour things are closing, things are opening. we're allowed to do this but not this so we're literally taking it day today myself my business partners and the restaurant and trying to adapt the best we can. >> ryan, our viewers are rooting for you as we say to a lot of our small business owners but a tough business to begin with and

the changes coming your way, it cannot be easy please come back and share more with us over time. >> thank you so much i appreciate you having me it's time for our etf spotlight. a look at mg travel tech, ticker away it's up over 30% in the last three months almost 35% boosted by uber with nearly 6% waiting. that stock surging off the deal to buy postmates it's up almost 4% right now. a lot more "squawk on the street" ahead. stay with us ♪

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welcome back here's your news update at this hour the supreme court has just ruled that states can legally force those chosen for the electoral college to vote for the winner of that state's popular vote for the first time since the pandemic began, the tsa has counted more than 700,000 travelers going through its check points in a single day data out this morning show it's happened three out of the last four days. and an iconic composer of movie sound tracks died. he set the tone for movies like "the good, the bad, the ugly". he also wrote scores for "the

untouchables" and others he won an oscar in 2016 for "the hateful eight" he was 91 years old. i' s y illeeoun an hour. "squawk on the street" will return right after this.

welcome back to "squawk on the street". stocks kick off in the green the nasdaq hitting a fresh all-time intraday high at the open with the resurgence of co-vid cases in a number of states across the nation, what's behind the rally? a new york times columnist, jim stewart joins us nice to have you back. >> nice to be with you >> it seems like on the one hand we've had better than expected economic data. the bull case out there is at least from an economic standpoint, maybe we bottomed in q2 on the flip side, you have an

increase in coronavirus cases. record numbers in a number of states concerns about what it means for hospitalizations over the coming weeks. the potential for an increase in deaths the disconnect between these two, i guess, how would you weigh one versus the other >> for weeks people were saying the market is about the virus. the economy is about the virus if you laid a chart of the stock market averages against the infection rate as infection rates went up, the loss went down it was a fluid correlation that has broken down, because the economic numbers are really patching some of the virus numbers. i think for two reasons. one, a lot of leaders have said we don't care what the virus does, we're not shutting down the economy. we've going to push through this for better or worse. you can argue if it's good or bad. from a purely economic standpoint, it means the economic is going to keep

recovering secondly, i think investors are focusing more and more on the vaccine. the idea of shutting down of distancing, let's face it, it has not been effective it has been effective in some parts of the country other parts it has not but people are looking to the vaccine. last week when we saw the news about a possible successful virus from a major company the market responded positively. i think people are looking the economy is going to push ahead and we're seeing it in the unemployment numbers which have been consistently above implication, and they're looking for that >> i wonder on a day like today when regeneron says they're going to phase three for antibody treatment, how much investors are keying in on vaccine but also some of the treatments that

could essentially act as a bridge to get to the vaccine and how important that could be to all these reopening efforts and case counts. >> i think the science is starting to move forward and let's face it, that's an area where this country is very good i think the risk here is i think investors, there's a lot of good news here, and investors have to keep an eye on like florida and texas, california, these are huge populations, and if they truly get overwhelmed, they're not going to just be able to power through this and there are going to be some significant bombs in the next few months i think there is some risk there to keep an eye on. there is a level of infection and a level of people dying that political leaders cannot just

ignore and they would have to respond, i think >> jim, it's david the market itself, we've talked and i remember the pain you were in in terms of the downturn in march, mid to late march in particular but you stuck with your program which you've always told our viewers as well. you rewaited and i would assume you're in a much better position now but what would your advice be now given the incredible rally where the s&p is barely down and the nasdaq is at an all-time high >> you've got to stay with the program which means it's time to look at trimming some of the sausage. it was about a month ago, it came with 25%. i did a little trimming. it got my next spot is when it's up 50%, it got close to that

i don't think it's gotten back up to that yet it got up about 47% from the low. 50% would be my next target. but for me, it is harder -- it is very hard to buy when it feels like the world is falling apart the way it was in march. i was paralyzed. i finally did it i did stick to the program it is maybe even harder to sell when things look great i mean, there's kind of a time when you think you get that positive reinforcement every day. you look at the stock market, but you've got to stick with the program. and when things look really rosy, when all the good news is baked in, that's the time when you have to trim and i don't mean a radical new position i just mean rebalancing. have your target allocation, and then get it in line when it gets out of whack and even if it feels bad, just deal with it it's been working well

>> it has, although you say really rosy. it's hard to say that about the real economy, and we discuss the divergence in terms of the performance of the stock market and what appears to be a real economy that's still suffering we had a restaurant owner in houston on, for example, talking about the difficulties they're having what do you make of that, that disconnect >> well, i heard this from a lot of people. they are feeling good about the stock market, and they're feeling guilty for feeling good about the stock market, because so many people are hurting everybody knows somebody who is in some kind of economic distress in all this but my feeling, you have to separate things. you can -- it's okay to feel that you've made some good investment decisions and it's okay to feel bad that a lot of people are suffering i know i personally have trouble feeling like really good when

there are so many people who are in a bad way no matter what my personal circumstances are we're complex people there are many emotional responses. emotions play a role, but it's detached from the other feelings the market itself, i don't think feels any particular compassion for anybody. it just looked at what the prospects are for future earnings and behaves accordingly. we have to learn to separate just as you often have to separate your emotions from an investment decision. now you need to separate your feelings about the market from your legitimate concerns about this great period of distress that we're going through i haven't mentioned some of the political issues and the police forces and the minorities in this country i mean, there is a lot out there that conjures up a lot of emotion that may or may not have anything to do with how your

investments are performing >> yeah. that's part of the disconnect we have talking about all these upward moves to the market even as we know people at the end of this month in particular are going to be unable to pay the rent and polls show that a huge percentage of unemployed americans and employed americans are worried about that prospect as the market looks through it on july 31st >> so far it has i mean, i feel there's still a chance that washington is going to take some steps and not let this go off a cliff. i mean, given the reporting i've been doing there are certainly people within the congress and the executive branch who are pushing for more stimulus. i think that's still an open question the market looks to the future, and the market is looking to a day when the virus is over either because there's a vaccine or because somehow it has

morphed into something that isn't so serious there is a vaccine coming in the foreseeable future that's what the market cares about. i mean, blips in the next few months are something that have already been discounted. i think that is hard for people. that is kind of the brutal reality of the market. >> right do you think folks are going to start to assemble anecdotes i guess you could call them, buffet, on dominion assets, uber, postmates as a sign that people are coming out of bunkers, so to speak >> i think that's definitely added a bullish tone this week when you see m&a activity at a fairly high level. especially when you have a shrewd investor like buffett stepping in. i mean, i'm sure people remember when he stepped in and bought those goldman bonds, you know, he helped bail out goldman in

the financial crisis that was one of the great turning points in the 2008, 2009 crisis and turned out to be a smart decision on his part so you see buffett stepping in and making $10 billion acquisition in this kind of environment, that's going to give people confidence, but some smart people think we've turned the corner here and the economy is going to come back. so people do look at each other. they look at what other people are doing. they see the market going up like this, a positive reinforcement for being bullish like this. and you know, so the investors are responding to that again, i think from everyone else's perspective, you have to key an eye out the nasdaq hits a new high, that's pretty amazing given everything that's happened like i said, there's a lot of good news baked into the numbers now. i do think the market is vulnerable for some really bad news, should it happen that's just why i'm saying stick to your allocation

don't get too far out overweighted just as you didn't want to be underweighted when things were really low >> yeah. finally jim, the election in november starting to see more notes out of wall street on what, for example, biden presidency could mean versus a trump presidency what would happen if you see major changes in congress as well how much of this do you think is already starting to swirl around and be factored into the market or is it too early yet >> i think some people are i mean, i'm hearing a lot of people talking about it, asking questions, and saying oh, i don't know anything but i think it would be good for the market. but clearly the president himself is picking up on this. he made a big -- this morning, i think he made a big pronouncement about how bad biden is going to be for the market i think it's too early, one, t decide who is going to win the election biden has been doing well in the polls.

it's only july a lot can happen between now and then and secondly, i think a lot of investors are focusing on biden and forgetting congress. and to me the senate is going to be the big question here if the senate stays in the hands of the republicans and biden wins, i don't think investors have anything to be concerned about there. i mean, that means there's not going to be any big change in the tax code a divided government is going to severely limit what any biden administration could accomplish in terms of the strategy and i've seen several minute saying don't handicap it, and don't assume that a biden is going to be bad for the market that's making a lot of assumptions at this point. i remember -- >> all right -- >> before the last election, everybody thought how bad trump was going to be for the market it plunged initially on his

election, and that turned out to be wildly wrong speculation. >> yeah. of course, we know the polls got things very wrong. so we'll see how the next hand full of months play out. jim stewart, thank you for joining us the s&p is up 1.4% >> when we come back, the challenges of reopening las vegas. why casinos are struggling and state officials are planning to crack down on noncompliance. amonust az jhit 3,000. we're back in a minute

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casino stocks are feeling pain the stocks in the red as nevada plans to crack down on reopening noncompliance. contessa brewer has more on that >> carl, new daily cases in clarke county have more than doubled than two weeks ago nevada state investigators observed only 50% of businesses were complying this is video from the same l.a. sports columnist who made an impact of a video a month ago

where few guests wore masks. it was warned this weekend of swift decisive action and a reprimand to those rule flouting businesses he said you're not only jeopardizing people's health but also jeopardizing our fellow businesses, your industry, and our overall economy. rumors are rampant on blogs about casinos voluntarily closing again. though mgm, las vegas sands and others told me it is absolutely not true still, the casinos are cracking down mgm warned employees of disciplinary action for not following the health and safety rules. and tony rodi oh said failure to wear your mask at work is grounds for termination. he writes you will not be pen penalized for missing work if you feel ill, but if you come to

work when feeling ill. say thad see something, say something. and it has instituted mandatory co-vid testing for all employees. a spokesperson told me that gaming companies are adapting and learning there were tough lessons at caesar palace porter died of coronavirus june 24th. the casino had just reopened june 4th >> contessa, thank you for that and that video is certainly arresting to watch let's give you a quick look at the market here. the nasdaq composite up over 2%. that is a new all-time high, and as you might expect, apple up 2.7 %. amazon up almost 4%, approaching a 1 $.5 trillion market value. more "sqwkn e re" raht aheadstet experience the joy of a bigger world

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president trump signing an extension of the ppe small business relief fund it moves the june 30th deadline to august 8th. that is about $130 billion in payroll subsidies. giving more time, of course, for businesses to use it if they need it. let's bring in dave dodson an investor and advisor on over 30 million businesses. someone we have been checking in with with some frequency i want to get to small businesses i would love to get your take from near perspective on what is going on what you're seeing in the economy. it is an s&p that is almost flat for the year, and it does seem so out of joint, it would seem, with, i assume, what you're hearing and seeing from the people that you deal with.

what do you think about that >> i'm not a stock market expert but i understand what is happening on main street it's like we have a boat and the boat has a big hole in it. we're bailing the water out at a trillion dollars a bucket. what business needs on main street is for us to focus on the whole. that is things like wearing masks. we have to solve the coronavirus. america has never establiaccomph anything significant separated we put a man on the moon we did all of that together. the problem is that we're trying to fix the hole in the boat as two separate nations like two tri stri tribes we need the leadership in washington that acknowledge the president who to bring us

together to fix the coronavirus like they have done in vietnam, ireland, most of europe. we're running a race for the bottom on who can botch this the most >> you're talking about things that are not going to happen you're not hearing or seeing from the coronavirus task force. the president is tweeting this morning about the confederate flag and things like that. what in the world gives you the idea that it is suddenly going to change course >> i don't see a world out there that will lick the coronavirus as a red state and blue state. it is instead of fighting each other we need to fight the coronavirus. i hate to be pessimistic here, but i don't blooer going to have america reopen as long as we have an administration calling

half of the country evil mr. mcconnell said anything that had to happen had to happen on his desk that is not who we are as a soul and as americans and then there is washington dc tinkering with the economy i was reading how the house and the administration why don't we drop payroll tax by 7.5% and people will go back to work. that is ridiculous a bookstore owner is not going to bring an employee back because he doesn't have to pay payroll tax. he needs customers mainstreet needs to be own so he has foot traffic

>> why do you they is the case >> there is two reasons why. first the rules are constantly changing i totally acknowledge that this is unprecedents and difficult, but a b plus plan that is consistent is better than trying to drive for an a plus plan that changes every few weeks. so instead of getting eight weeks you get nearly half a year why didn't they do that on the front end? businesses are not going to take on debt they might have to pay back when the rules are changing all of the time. the programs come with a lot of hooks in there you have to spend it a certain way or over a certain period of time so they're afraid to take on $250,000 worth of debt which they may have to pay back to

bring back employees that they don't need because they don't have work for the employees. >> wrap this up for me, you said what you think they need, but it's clear they're not getting any of those things in terms of a federal response at this point. we're going to continue to move forward, the economy is not going to close thankfully the death rate is free right now, but what happens if it is just more of the same what happens to those businesses that you advise. >> this is out an eight week recovery program we have business that is dependent on seasonality they're not going to bring back the same employees

we need to settle in for a 6 or 12 month slow recovery we need to plan what employees we take back on a slow recovery. not the idea that we will blink and it will go away. >> we appreciate your updates along the way here thank you for joining us, david dodson >> my pleasure >> david, thanks, we'll see you lat later. good morning, everyone we're back this morning for the hour, fascinating market action this morning, a one month high going for five out of five nasdaq all-time high amazon 3,000 even as we take stock of all of the problems

that dave dodson was just highlig highlighting >> apple is also higher by about 3% it will be around there nor today and then you have tesla. the stock above 1300 right now i'm trying to remember when elon musk said it was too high that is not stopping him from ribbing the shorts as his stock is up 8% this morning. >> yeah, it doesn't feel like that long ago, but it seems like an eternity. she certa he is certainly having fun with it, those short shorts the ribbing on the short te sellers. i can't help but notice