tv Mad Money CNBC July 6, 2020 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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hello and good evening to you "mad money" fans we have a special edition of "fast money. we have our guests on tap. we have a pile of cash, enormous pile to put to use we'll ask the traders what should he did with that catch next the stock that suddenly soared to the top of the charts among retail investors we'll tell you what it is and find out how to trade from here and we want to know your burning questions, as well
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tweet us @cnbc fast money. let's start with a strong start to the week for the markets. in fact, record-breaking close for the nasdaq tech leading the way it has done so often guy, your take on today's rally. if we snapshot today, guy, half way point of the year, the dow is down 8% or so the nasdaq 100, up 21%, almost a 30% differential will that be repeated in the second half of the year? >> well, first of all, it's great to be with you you know, i'm a huge fan of yours. i've mentioned that number of times. so. >> thanks for hanging out with us this evening. >> thanks for having me, guys. >> i'm hard pressed to believe that you can come anywhere close to having that same kind of out performance in the second half but i have to say, i didn't think it would happen in the first half of the year so who am i to sort of speculate on that. what i will say in terms of the s&p 500 with its move basically within a whisper of its all-time high if you assume $130 worth of
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earnings for the s&p 500, which is a pipe dream, at 3200, you're talking about a market trading close to 25 times earnings that's rich by anybody's standards. the counter to that is it doesn't matter because central banks globally afford so much liquidity in the system. i think evaluations matter and i think we're getting levels where the market might think that as well. >> we're getting close to earnings so they have to rethink evaluations. dan, good to see you outside of the dmz for once and i know from those conversations that you're not particularly bullish but are you more bearish than the cyclical names or the tech heavy fan names? >> it's interesting. you know, i've spent a lot of time talking about some of the cyclicals that don't act particularly well are some of the areas like bank stocks in particular that act down right horrible or oil stocks that just don't really confirm what we're seeing in mega cap tech. when you think about meg ka ca
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tech you're seeing buying. it's unnatural in a way and reminds me of the late 1999, early 2000 period for many of the same names but microsoft is up, you know, 33% on the year. it's up double that from it march lows and, you know, when you think about head winds to enterprise spending and how they are getting their lunch eaten with teams, whether it's slack that's doing it or zoom versus skype, you say to yourself, what the heck is going on here because this company, you know, was obviously decently positioned prior to the pandemic but i'm not sure there are two positions where we'll discount any snags that they have in earnings for the next year or so to me, i just don't see some of this stuff that's going on here. i actually have seen it before i know it doesn't end particularly well if you're a retail investor panicking to buy stocks right here on july 6th with the runs they had, it's quite dangerous to be honest.
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>> the nasdaq is a clear performance differential so far year to date and so is u.s. versus the rest of the world unless you focus on two countries, china, that's had a great day today and put the shanghai index up 10% year to date and germany only down 3 or 4% year to date more similar to the s&p 500. do we conclude if you're really, really on top of controlling the virus that u yyou should perform well and if so, why has the u.s. performed so well? >> look, first of all, welcome great having you i think this rest of the world trade is something that actually we've seen start to move two to three weeks ago. if you look at the dax and you want to invest in the ewg and remember that's a local currency based etf. effectively, you're going to out perform if the eros is out performing the dollar and the dax outperformed the market 12, 13% in the last six weeks.
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china last night had an extraordinary dynamic of where the securities journal and the state newspapers were essentially saying hey, get involved in the stock market wealth effect coming bull market possibly coming and stimulating the fact there will be exciting support for their markets, whether they should be doing that or not but, you know, that's their version of the fed getting out there saying we'll do whatever it takes so the under performance of china and emerging markets to this point but the last few days and even last week, the out performance of the fxi despite what is going on in hong kong is a trend that i think investors should continue to look at guy talked about earnings and valuation. i'm not sure we're really handicapping s&p earnings until 2022 and that's the opportunity where i think people are looking for laggers and under fperformes while they bid up u.s. stocks.
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exciting day for global investors but it's been a brutal, you know, six months even with this out performance over the last few weeks. >> and the one international market of course that hasn't played catchup is the u.k. but we could have expected that, i guess. guy, to tim's point there about whether the market is reacting to earnings or reacting to momentum or liquidity, do you think earnings season coming up, banks kicking off a week from tomorrow will be a moment where the momentum could be taken out of the market and people focus back on the fund mentals again >> i think for a couple days at least it will because i don't think earnings will be particularly robust in my opinion. banks have absolutely under performed. we'll talk about that, i'm sure. you talk about a name like j.p. morgan that made an all-time high of 141 in february. flirted with $80 and sort of me aroundering in the mid-90s these stocks are under performing for a reason and to answer your question, i think
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the market will take a pause yes, you'll see one offs great earnings we've seen it and the stocks are rewarded but when you look across the specspectrum. i'm hard pressed to believe they will stay that optimistic in my opinion. >> you know, it interesting we saw earnings over the last couple weeks and a great reaction out of fedex. fedex is going down for two years and it's earnings estimates had been ratcheted lower and lower and the stock bounced maybe 12, 13% after that report but we also saw nike get flushed and we saw other action here so, you know, it's been kind of a one-way trade or 45 degree angle for the last couple months but as we head into the back half of the year, earnings will matter more when you think liquidity was one of the main things that got the stock market here, it distorting valuation a little bit but one of the things that guy when he was brought up in this market after the really the great crash, maybe close to a century ago, you know, you had
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to learn how to figure out, you know, price discovery and valuation scrutiny these were two very important things and they seem to be out the window again but once we get over this hurdle of the stimulus or the financial assistance that turned into stimulus, i don't think there will be a heck of a lot more in the second half of this year and that's when investors might start to scrutinize valuation a little bit, especially to what tim just said we're not going to get back, i don't think, to peak earnings, the 2019 earnings for a couple years and i think you should probably start to put a discount on multiples if that's the case especially if visibility is that poor for that long. >> let's bring in another market voice joining us now by phone. lindsey bell, great to hear from you, as always starting off with the general market mood, it feels like it super positive another record close on the nasdaq but have we in fact, be
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range bound for a couple weeks when you look more at the s&p 500 and will it take a lot to break us out of that range in either direction >> yeah, i mean, we definitely have been ranged for the last couple weeks of course you get a monday like this where we're hitting new highs in the nasdaq and some of the big tough names. sure, that feels exciting. but underneath, i think the reality is coronavirus cases are increasing here in the u.s. while the economic data up until this point has been surprising to the upside. the question mark remains how is that going to develop over the next couple months are we going to see a plateauing in economic data there is still a lot of questions out there. with policies, policy has been a great support to the system for the majority of the last several months, this month in particular several of the fiscal policies are going to run out and by the way, taxes are due july 15th so
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that could put a damper on sentiment, too i think there is a lot of question marks out there even if it feels a day like today feels really good and as we get into the second half of the year, i do believe like your guest was saying earlier that fundamentals are going to matter a lot more when that policy jolt starts to fade. >> are we more likely, lindsey to break meaningfully higher or lower? >> to me, i think that as we go through third quarter earnings season, you know the summer is a slower, weaker period during the year i think that we're going to get some digestion and consolation because it will be a huge mixed bag. either sh earth shattering but the game changer is election in november and that will determine where we go to upside or downside from here. >> same quick question to each out traders one by one
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meaningful to break higher or lower? >> i have to be steadfast. i think the break will be meaningfully lower. >> tim >> how are we defining meaningfully the lid quiquidity of the fed, s good news for the correlation trade. i do think there is more room to the upside, not meaningful and i think the markets are at some point off sides. >> dan >> yeah, i think you have a one up, two down scenario to answer your question. i think that maybe you see the s&p 500 back near 33 3 under some of the best case scenarios but on the downside, possibly down to 2750 that's how i get to one up, two down. >> lindsey, 2-1 bear to bull, is that the same kind of answers you get when you speak to your clients? >> yeah, i mean, i think that that's where the institutional mind set is at and i think on the retail mind set, which is where i'm at on the invest side
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is much different. there is more enthusiasm and excitement within the market and the potential for it going into the end of the year especially as like you said people continue to work from home. they have time to dabble in the market and learn and there is definitely a strong interest for that. >> hey, lindsey, it's tim. is there some interest in starting to rotate we had an ism services number this morning, which was very bullish. the payroll number is die jegesd but pmis around the world. there are sectors that have badly under performed so i think we're all saying chasing five or six stocks at the top of the nasdaq leader board is concerning but is there anything you can own? >> yeah, no, i think it's a great question and, you know, i've been eyeing financials for the last couple months now because i agree with you that the one sector that has been beaten down significantly and the economy is starting to
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improve and even if we do hit a little bit of a plateauing here, i do think that the worst is behind us and these stocks have been beaten down to 2009 levels so there is opportunity with interest rates remaining low. >> that said, lindsey, you mentioned the election briefly and earlier on do you think the financials will be at risk if there is a democratic sweep of the election there was a note from j.p. morgan that suggested the broader markets were not too much at risk from the election but perhaps financials would be a sector that could be >> it will definitely be a focus if there is a democratic president and democratic sweep for sure but again, i do think this is a sector that's been beaten down so significantly that once we get past the election, there is, you know, there is the ability
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to -- for the uncertainty to be lifted because we're going for the next four years and while the financial, the red tape cut by the trump administration on the financial sector regulations that have been removed, that will likely, you know, potentially come back on i think these stocks are so beaten up, something that's worth at least vrg sohaving som exposure in the portfolio. >> dan, is the election a risk in the market? >> not really -- >> oh, sorry. >> dan, go ahead. >> sorry. >> yeah, no, i actually don't. i mean, i think that under post circumstances, i think a lot of investors have already priced in probably higher corporate tax rates so i don't see that as a big thing and listen, if you look back to the last financial crisis, you know, obviously deregulation in the lead up to that, the '07, 08 doit p'08 pera little aggressive. the bank was the source of the crisis let me tell you something, i think we're probably also pretty
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decently happy with those regulations being in place we might have really added fuel to the fire whatever the next fire was going to be so at the end of the day, i think the regulation worked out okay the dereg is fine but also putting some shackles on this bank stock right here. they would like to see interest rates rise i think under a new administration you may start to see that with less geopolitical volatility. >> the bank seeing a lot of stock differentiation. down 5% year to date and wells fargo down 50% year to date. they begin earnings reporting next tuesday lindsey bell, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. the chart master is taking a look at the concentration of stocks that are leading the charge carter worth is here to break it down over to you. >> sure, thanks, wolf. this is a class sick instance of a market with every major top
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that occurred had that circumstance in 2000, financials and other things were turning down before the market peaked in march in '07, same thing, consumer discretionary names turned down before it peaked in october of '07. the same circumstance before we came apart in february let look at a few tables and charts the first is to the issue of concentration of capital the top three stocks are the same as essentially the bottom 300. you see it there there are actually more. it's 4.6 trillion in value 16.6% of the s&p versus the bottom 300, 4.2 or 15.2% so top three more than the bottom 300 take a look at the second table, the top five 6.3 trillion versus the bottom 350 at 5.27. so now you're talking about top five at almost 23% versus the
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bottom 350 at 21 now, take a look at the top 15 and this is just reached the level that it was in the.com era. the top 15 stocks at 9.5 trillion are essentially 34% of the market that's the same as the bottom 420. top 15 and the bottom 420 stocks there is no s&p index anymore. it just a few names. so take a look at the next -- this is a chart that depicts the top five and 22.6. .com peak 92%. it's a defensive thing, and people want to hide because they're worried. it good technique until it too crowded. in any event, final slide, the summery of it all and this really gets to the heart of matter the top five stocks again, 22.6% of the market cap of the s&p and
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yet, their earnings of course, the top five only 12.5%. these are the darlings but the top 15 are more than the bottom 420. we're so dependent on a few names. >> we certainly are, carter. if you're comparing it to the.com bubble, would that percentage of earnings albeit today is lower than the percentage of market cap, would it have been a lot lower earnings relative to market cap back in -- >> yes for sure a lot lower. that's important this is a much different era interest rates are different, of course and we don't have the valuation issue that we had with the.com. again, if you think about the peak in march of 2000, the peak in october of '07 and every other peak for the most part, even frankly in february before the pandemic hit, yo u have tu i
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bifercation. do i stay and choice those that are crowded or does one frankly take the risk? there are value traps and we're seeing that in energy and banks and industrials. >> carter worth, thank you for joining us guy, we go to you. i guess you eluded to the argument at the start of the show you could have made the points carter just made at any point in the last five years and you would have missed out on tremendous performance. >> no, absolutely very true without question but his point is well taken and i know you're a footballer, a fan of football. let me put it in terms you-all will understand. if you recall in the 9'90s, eric was the star of the team and carried them for a period of time until he couldn't at that time what is going on in the market you can't have a few names carrying an entire market. it works until it doesn't and i think we're closer to eric on '97 than we are to eric canton in '92 if you get my drift.
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>> not a perfect analogy because he retired before the most successful period in manchester united history it would be like arguing amazon found a new business to go into to carry them to greater heights. i get the point you're trying to make and really appreciate the way you're trying to make it, including calling it football. >> not sure the audience does. >> i think i went down a rabbit hole tim, what is your take and if you could use a football analogy, i'd welcome it? >> we'd lose another half of the audience and speaking of rabbits, by the way, i saw three or four rabbits in that painting right next to carter we should bring that back because there is a lot of hidden gems in there. we have a case where we had moments where the breath and the nasdaq has been a harbor and we see the breath and rotation.
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this is extreme and reminds me where we were two mondays ago into the middle part of the week before we had a nice pull back tell me how long the fed will be in the market and i'll tell you how long liquidity will drive up five or six stocks higher. that's the dynamic where liquidity goes. >> perhaps we don't discuss this enough last year we said that the tools left in the fed's tool box are diminished from a year earlier or ten years earlier and today, this year, we've seemed to forget that argument they are all in but is their ability to be all in or does all in mean less than it once did? >> i just think we have the evidence of 2018 not only the fed but central banks trying to take liquidity and 2019 and test cases. you tell me what global central banks are doing, i'll tell you the direction the market will
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go you said yes, the fed's balance sheet has fallen in the last few weeks. they are buying about 5 billion. that's down. they haven't reversed and not going to reverse that's a dynamic that i think is all equity investors need to know it's not that simple except for the fact that central banks have been your friend and until liquidity moves in reverse, equity markets are going higher. >> after today's monster rally on wall street, what are you day traders buying and selling we are joined with some of those key trades hey. >> hey, wolf i'm sorry, no football references here. i'll get that out of the way early. some of those darlings, apple, amazon and microsoft all among the top 20 most popular stocks on robin hood today with smaller but well-known names like uber and security monitoring adt another notable stock getting attention from robin hood traders, lemonade, the stock soared 17%, making the total
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gain over the last two days over 50%. and then there is a big basket of companies related to electric and renewable energy powered vehicles that range in size and scope including those with small market caps like plower, plug, power and electric mechanical which wolf, if you have not seen what they look like, i highly recommend it but the top two stocks on robin hood were the world's largest auto maker tesla and the chinese rival knnio. also hitting record highs. wolf, back to you. >> thank you for that. dan, what's your reaction to what the day traders were doing toda today? >> it's no bueno, dude the day traders couldn't stand
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not owning it. we've been here before we know how this ends. we were talking about or tim mentioned let me know when the feds pull away the punch bowl. the thing you can say is we actually have seen this before we knew what the japanese central banks were doing in the late '80s, early '90s. the nikkei is down at some point we know what will happen here. interest rates will never go higher the ten-year treasury will be zero or negative that's the only way to keep this thing going right now and to tim's point, they are deadly afraid of q 4 2018 we saw this last year in 2019. they started cutting interest rates. they started doing qe and q 3 and q 4 and worried about risk assets going lower at some point as my main man
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said, you reach a point of diminishing marginal returns here i don't know i'm seeing stuff that makes abls l -- absolutely no sense. i know this is "mad money" but on "fast money," we say have at it ride the bull. >> does uber that appeared on the list today deserve to be higher off the back of this post made still >> no, i don't think so. to me, it's, you know, it's sort of the second prize after grub hub. i do see what is going on because as dan mentioned during the 5:00 hour when your stock movers to the point in which it did to uber, the deal pays for itself in terms of stock appreciation good for them. i like lyft. we played this game would you rather, i like lyft more than uber and let me leave you on this note. i went through a charity fields match in 1997 -- >> come on, man. we doing this again? >> newcastle played man u and i
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know you know this, that was david beckham's first appearance, i believe, as a footballer in the premiere league. >> except charity shield is not part of the premiere league. i love it. >> both teams are part of the premiere league. >> they are but the charity shield is a slightly different come ev competition. we're going to lose viewers. we're 25% less than we started t tim, amazon on the list. i get their business mix is abluteally pa absolutely perfect for the world in 2020. will the same apply out of the covid era? is there a special case they benefit in all scenarios >> look, they seem to be, wolf, bending it like beckham. they can kind of hit in every spot whether they are profitable or not having said that, i do think
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amazon's move dan talked about, we've had even relative to amazon's move. it's not about valuation but it is about there could be even we stop talking about doj stuff, we stop talking about regulatory pressure i'm not jumping out of a window on amazon. i just think that to have the expectation that they have the catalyst that they had during covid-19 to get the valuation higher, i don't see that. >> by the way, just come to think of it, guy, you'll definitely be tuning in tomorrow we have a football interview on "closing bell" tomorrow. the mls commissioner the day mls gets back to the season again. so there we go. >> riveting. that's hot that's hot. >> we got more on this special bonus hour of "fast money. no more football, i promise. coming up, we want to know what stock questions you have tweet them to our cnbc fast money and we'll answer them live but first, why the latest drop in mortgage bailouts might r eaally signal more pain ahd fothe housing market we'll explain when we come back.
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get a $50 prepaid card when you switch. 5g is now included with all new data options. switch and save hundreds. xfinity mobile. welcome back to "fast money. details for us, hi, dana. >> hi. the overall numbers are falling but more burroughs are extending bailouts 4.58 million homeowners were in f f forbearance plans. down by about 100,000 in the past week, but with a big red flag the federal mortgage bailout started at the end of the march initially as a 90-day plan with the option to extend to six months that's the flag. more than 2 million borrowers got in in the first two weeks and would be expiring now but
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more borrows are extending than exiting bailouts gnat la in the last two weeks, it jumped from 10% of all forbeer raaranco over 17% according to the mortgage banker association. as parts of the economy close again, these extensions are likely to rise wilfred? >> i saw pending home sales jumped 40% for the month of may. explain to us how we can get that disconnect? >> well, there is incredible demand for housing right now and that was pent up from march and april when we lost the spring season a lot of people in rentals and didn't jump into the market when this started who are now saying okay, i have to do it fast because i want to get out of the rental or i want to get into a bigger home. now, that may not extend into the fall it remains to be seen. it doesn't necessarily have to
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do with the people who are having trouble paying their mortgages. it is however a good sign at least that if those people who are having trouble paying their mortgages in the end just can't hold on to their homes, there is a large buyer population out there ready to buy those homes before they would go into foreclosure and that's a big difference from what we saw during the last recession in the great subprime mortgage crisis when you couldn't sell the homes, only investors were around to buy them. >> guy, what was the take away buy the home builder, sell the banks? >> the home builders are okay. you had a big run and pulled off but in terms of the banks, you know this. go back to wells fargo in april when they said loan loss provision $13.79 billion up 413% year over year that's a staggering number it will be interesting to see what they say next year. there definitely have it in the banking sector
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wells fargo is an absolute have not. >> i would say, as well, guy, we got the stress test results a week or so again wells far get felt it necessary to also add a line to say that their loan loss provisions would be hiring q 2 than in q 1 and a lot of analysts saying the fact they felt it necessary to do that clearly shows the position they're in but the fact the other banks didn't might mean there is an improving trend for other banks. the other key point, tim that dianna mentioned this is nothing like the situation in '08, '09 if banks make a lot less money this year than last, some are priced as if there is a chance the future is in question. >> yeah, i think the issue for banks here are not related to residential mortgages despite the fact if someone tells you you have a chance to push off paying your mortgage for three months or six months, you're going to take it and i think we have to be careful some numbers
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may be skewed to people being opportunistic. the cnbs, what is going on in commercial mortgages and real estate markets, that is where banks have a lot of exposure yes, you referenced the stress test and talked about a number of those scenarios and largely, the banks came out okay. they have been trading heavy since the stress test in the sense that again, the nationalization risk that hangs over banks is part of what i think holds them back even though i think their balance sheets are in great shape relative to even where some of these stress tests could push them. >> coming up on this special extra hour of "fast money" when a big deal doesn't lead to big gains, why shares fell despite a deal with warren buffet and later, can chinese stocks follow through on the big overnight rally? we'll get you ready for the first trade in asia up 6% they were early this morning. what will happen tomorrow? back in a couple minutes
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>> welcome back to "fast money." warren buffet purchased the deal worth $10 billion. it is buffet's first acquisition. it was a deal done too soon or too low a price. tim, what is your take >> the deal feels like a deal done where buffet sees a lot of regulatory and at least head winds for pipelines and therefore codominion benefits f that i think it was they may be a beneficiary of other new projects ocare kept sidelined
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the med stream energy space is a tough place to be. this is an interesting purchase. >> do you read this as buffet being bullish on energy? >> i don't think so. if he was bullish more broadly, i don't think that's necessary it maybe it's a hedge of part of portfol portfolio, mid stream plays. i'm not sure i don't think -- i think the market thought it's a bull iish bet. to me it's a hedge of a border portfolio package he's looking at in my opinion. >> this deal talk got us thinking with the cash pile at $100 billion what should the oracle of omaha buy next dan, first. >> you know, we were talking about the banks before and warren buffet has been a great investor in financial assets over his multi decade career he's done it in times of crisis and he's gotten some great, great deals.
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you know, if he's looking for value and always looking for value, he's a 2% or less than a 2% holder of j.p. morgan and that's one to me it seems like that jamie diamond, the ceo is not going to go out getting massively by the likes of paypal and venmo. when you look at the valuation, you look at the market cap and it's basically market cap equal to square and paypal combined. if i were him, i would be buying this all night and day and the other one is just a great brand that fits into the same trade in a way is american express. the largest shareholder with 19%. i would be adding to that, too and really tweaking these managements to kind of get more in the game and make sure that they do not get massively disintermediated by the likes of paypal and square. >> the question is whether he would do that. we know he was a seller of banks in q is from the q 1 filings, sold out of goldman sachs in total and goldman sachs rallied
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a lot and sold a bit of jp morgan and we know separately not filed yet in q 2 is a big seller particularly in may of wells fargo. we don't know who that was the question is whether he's particularly likely to go into the banks again as you say he long term was always into them tim, what do you think he should go into next >> i'm going to agree with mr. dark storm cloud's painting to the right. with nathan on this. what warren buffet does is goes out of favor industries but places he knows well so i think he does know the banks well so i'm going to say banks as well but pnc he added to that position in may. it a 50 basis point position it's got a fantastic balance sheet. they just sold off their position in black rock they raised some cash. it's trading at .8 times price to book significant value here and really one of the high quality u.s. banks so if anything, i think he's
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through did i have cfficult time nibbled at that and could nibble more but he stays with banks because this is what he knows. >> guy, where do you think he should go? >> you know, dan made fun of my age earlier on the show but i chose not to say anything. i will say a few decades prior to me being born, u.s. steel was created in 1901 by j.p. morgan and if you look, that stock was off to the races in march of 2018, it was i think trading in the mid 40s and it's been pretty much awful ever since then in large part due to the trade wars with the chinese but at this level, warren buffet could buy the second largest producer of steel in the quite i think and an iconic brand for probabliless than $4 billion. it won't happen but i think u.s. steel would send the right signal to a lot of people if you forward into it at this point. >> we will make sure that becky quick asks him about all of those companies in the next
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warren buffet interview. thank you for the picks. >> coming up, counting down to the opening bell in asia the massive rally putting shanghai up 10%. we'll take you live to the region and later, you've got questions for us, we've got answers. tweet us yr ggt ocoubiesstk questions and we'll tackle them live "fast" is back in two. - [narrator] at southern new hampshire university,
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recovery is picking up speed continued to put wind in the sails of equity markets in this part of the world and down under here in australia that counts on china. all eyes are on china's blue chips that hit a five-year high sluggi shrugging off tensions it's the beginning of a rising trend. investor sentiment is likely to continue today to be driven by a front page editorial in chinese state media which said china needed a bull market to build strength of course chinese shares have been given a boost by a lot of upbeat economic data that is fueling hopes of a speedy recovery than other parts of the world which are now seeing a spike in coronavirus cases but also lockdowns investor haves been cheering plans to actually reform china's capital markets and that includes a revamp of the benchmark index to include and attract more high tech strength and get rid of some of the loss making companies and that's
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significant given this broader technology dispute we're seeing unfold between china and the united states. china has even brought in a u.s. style registration based system for its nasdaq style starboard and all eyes are on our smic, that's a big chinese chip maker which kicks off its shanghai share sale today it could be the biggest listing on the chinese starboard since it opened in july last year. so we are keeping a very close eye on that as well as its listing date experts also say that the choir nee -- chinese market believes there will be further easing to cushion the blow because of the impacts of coronavirus. >> thanks for that let's trade it tim, we have the shanghai up % year to date and the smaller index up 23% year to date. are you a buyer?
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>> i am. china is pushing national champion companies really interesting to hear what he said and they're essentially recrafting and taking out a lot of the bank and industrial plays to have a tech heavy index you don't have to go far look at the five more year chart and a three-month chart on that. all-time highs this is running like a deer through the woods and you talk about valuations and mega cap tech. this is probably one of the most interesting ratios out there ally buenos aires aa mega tech d samsung is also been quietly on the move and i think has more momentum this trade has more room to run. >> still to come on this special hour of "fast money. we've been through t sckheto questions and have answers for you when you come back ta-da!
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welcome back to "fast money. time for traders to answer your questions, some of you "fast money" fans sent video questions via twitter. the first one from jose in missouri. >> my name is jose and i am from missouri my question to you is about the corporation stock ticker alb during the last three, six and 12 months, the stock price increased by 3611 and 23% fueled by belief there will be an increased demand in lithium in the near future.
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the company's balance sheet is solid but i'm concerned about the business cycle we're in. do you believe that there will be a run on this stock and is this a good entry point? >> thanks to jose in missouri for that question. tim, what's the answer >> yeah, jose, i think it was first of all a hot stock kind of 2016, 2017 as the whole concept around e.v. and lithium ennear bee a -- engineergy and batteries was front and center over production with any commodity in specialty medals, you can have over production and over investment. so that was one of the issues here the stock is almost completely round tripped that move. and certainly, the crisis in covid-19 took the stock down to those levels which started the 2016 rally i like this trade. i like this trade for some of
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the other things we talked about as they relate to china and the dollar and co-mmmodities but specialty medals are continuing to make a move higher. >> next question is from tim in delaware he's tweeted his questions to us and asks if he should buy walmart on weakness as its off the high by about $15. guy, what is your take on that one? >> tim, thanks if s for your quo and for watching this stock made a high of 133 and change on april 17th basically sideways to lower ever since. i think you will get an opportunity to buy it closer to 112, which is a level if you go back and look in february that we sort of went sideways at for sometime they report inn early august. my concern there is valuation at 22 times next year's numbers and the fact that their costs are probably going higher. if you're patient, tim, you'll get to buy it a tad cheaper. >> our last questionis from jo
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in new york. >> hi, my name is joe. i'm from brooklyn, new york and i wanted to know about norwegian cruise lines nclh. i'm interested in the space because i think there is good opportunity when covid is over and people want to go on acase al -- vacation compared to the 52-week high there is a lot of opportunity. if you can give your opinion on the space. i know it might be awhile before things go up but long term i think it would be good if you agree, please let me know, thank you. >> dan, do you agree >> yeah, hey, joe. listen, cruise lines are definitely going to come back and the lack of visibility as far as the houspitality space is the issue. big ships that move around and are really isolated will be the last thing that likely come back so, you know, there is an old saying in vegas when you love somebody, you got to trust them, right, guy let me tell you guys this. i trust guy.
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i would go with the wind-cator guy has it i'd rather go for the cruise line that's basically in one place and that would be wind i think you're right if you think about it long term a little bit, if you start picking at norwegian and you use something like a ten as a stop, the stock has made a series of higher highs of late so, you know, long term view ten top. >> there you go. speaking of norwegian, we've got a big interview tomorrow morning. an exclusive with the ceos of norwegian and royal caribbean how those two cruise rivals are teaming up to improve industry safety that's at 10:00 a.m. eastern time don't miss that. up next, the final trades.
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>> welcome back. we have a date tim cook, jeff bezos and zuckerberg will appear before the house committee on july 27th this sector will be under scrutiny with the election coming up. will it weigh on stock prices until then >> no, you know, i don't think so you had the google headline a couple months ago. the stock looked past it the names seem impervious. >> let's pivot final trade.
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>> downgraded today at gold man. you don't see that often the tstock traded up. it okay. you play this one to the mid 60s to the upside. >> tim >> great having you. alibaba running high. >> guy, one word, which stock? >> nike. >> there we go we're out of time. thanks for watching this special edition of "fast money." we'll be back tomorrow for the full two hours i see a new kitchen with a grill and ask, "why not?" i really need to start adding "less to cart" and "more to savings." sitting on this couch so long made me want to make some changes...starting with this couch. yeah, i need a house with a different view. and this is the bank that will help you do it all. because at u.s. bank, our people are dedicated to turning your new inspiration into your next pursuit.
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♪ experience amazing ♪ gantt: it makes me emotional. this is our world, this is what we live in, and the virus really did a number on us. dan: i mean, if you thought that this could've happened six months ago, i think everybody would've said that, you know, you were nuts. betram: it was unlike anything any of us had ever experienced before. patterson: my first reaction was this was gonna be bad. ♪ kough: they were panic buying. they were worried. they were scared. treacy: all of a sudden it was kind of like, "oh, my gosh, we ran out in literally less than 24 hours." abdulrahman: it's definitely different than how it used to be. it's not normal anymore. jon: six months ago, there's nothing that could ever disrupt our food chain.
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