expectations there's definitely going to be some that do worse than expected whether that will drag the entire sector down or whether certain banks can start to outperform today they made the setup to being easy to a little hard we are with a 6% jump "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. coming up on fast, beyond the banks. we're gearing up for a huge week of earnings. plus, the race to 2 trillion the chart master is breaking down the big battle pebrewing among the tech titans. we start off with the ultimate bet on the reopening trade. disney world in orlando set to welcome guests back tomorrow

>> it is a big bet disney is starting off slow with the magic kingdom and animal kingdom, two of its five orlando parks with limited capacity. this is a very big deal for disney to start the staged reopening of disney world after closing both of its domestic parks on march 14th. yesterday it started reopening downtown disney. that's the outdoor mall by its anaheim park it mandated masks and social distancing there this is an important moment for disney parks and resorts which last year was the largest with revenue generating about 35% of revenue in 2019. it's estimated disney lost more than a billion dollars between april and june at those domestic parks because of those closures.

the opening of disney world will be a key test of what consumer demand for the parks could look like especially since disney's orlando park sees more traffic from out of state visitors than the california parks which are smaller. obviously the anaheim park has less guests that stay overnight where orlando has a big predominance of families that actually fly in to go there. this all comes as disney shares are at a crossroads. they're down about 17% over the last year. another key landmark will come for disney when disneyland opens. there's no word yet on when that will be. that will depend on california' governor and the call he makes there. >> disney got a big bump in its valuation last year on the news of disney plus

tim seymour, with the haircut, what do you say? >> as i promised well, so if you think about 54 million down loads or subscribers already to disney plus, i would say that multiple is justified boy, look what's been going on with netflix we can compare and contrast what disney should get in terms of a blended multiple there the release of "hamilton" ten days ago has been extraordinary. 750,000 down loads the first weekend. opening parks is very important for disney, wholistically for the entire company in terms of the cash flow, very very important, 38% of the company's revenue stream comes from parks and consumer experiences. again, the things that you should be excited about are the dtc which is of which there's seven times multiple that disney plus multiple based

upon what we're seeing and streaming and the haves and h e have nots of covid-19. disney should get a boost there. the health of society is going to be certainly prestaged by the health of disney and i think we're slowly seeing that. >> i would assume that closures of the park and maybe the stutter steps in reopening the park should take away from the valuation. so where are we in that sort of push/pull, do you think? >> i'm glad you asked. a lot of the verticals that tim mentioned before in terms of disney plus, direct consumer, things of that nature, all diversified revenue streams and make for a much more robust and healthy company. quite frankly in terms of the park reopening, i think there's real risk here if you think about just the mechanics of how one would go about visiting the actual theme park, out of state travelers

would likely be getting on a plane and going to a rental car for pickup and then hopping on machinery that we still don't know what the proper protocols are going to be in terms of how they're going to maintain a certain level of cleanliness the last headline that disney wants given that they do have all these other wonderful businesses and just in terms of the good will they have on their balance sheet, the last thing that you want being that you're in florida and you have the nba and the mls and a few other leagues that have had outbreaks of the coronavirus, what you don't want is a headline of disney propagating the spread of the virus to children. >> guy, i know you're an avid fan of mr. toad. are you willing to risk it at this point even to go back to your beloved ride? >> that is the rhetorical question of all time

i don't understand the need to rush back given what's going on in the state of florida, given the outbreaks we're seeing nationwide and given the fact there's probably anywhere from 90 to 100 degrees down there disney was trolled on twitter today. they have these mask-free relaxation zones at the park which in and of themselves are creepy i just don't understand how this is a good idea i hope it goes well, obviously i just don't see how it can. on top of that, disney now trades at 38 times next year's earnings i'll say this, the best thing that's happened at disney in the last month is the fact that netflix has gone to 415 up to 539 since they reported earnings to be honest, i think that's what's really helped the disney

stock quite a bit. >> these guys bring up a lot of great points i think it's really important to remember that it was really the private sector that led back in march with shutdowns and really kind of put these lockdowns of business into place. when i think about all the stakeholders and commerce and shareholders, there was a pretty well thought out process it's going to take time to get this stuff back up and running i understand the headline risk but when you have a business like disney where your media networks have been hit, your studios, your parks have been hit. tim highlights the dtc and the brand stuff around that, but still you start learning about how this is going to go, it's going to be spotty we're waiting on disneyland paris. there's obviously out in l.a i think they've got to get moving here. they've got to figure out what's

going to work going forward, how to keep everybody safe i don't think the headline risk is going to be that bad if they say, hey, listen, we're going to take it easy here, we're going to close down, florida is red hot right now. to me, i think it makes sense. i think we need to start to see some visibility in how this might work and how you value a company working at different levels of capacity in their parks group. >> the streaming business is fantastic but that's not going to make disney money for a while. disney is going to be spending money on new content to perpetuate the streaming business. >> yep great point. although if you read jp morgan's note recently they think they get to profitability by 2023 i realize that's not tomorrow but we're looking at normalized earnings for most companies 2022 the reservations these guys just expressed are also reasons why you want to own this company they all talked about how this

is such a world class brand and they have to be cautious when do you ring the bell and say it's time to get back into disney when we know these places are going to open. if anything, you had a little concern around the balance sheet. i don't know why if you're an investor you don't find a company like disney and say this is that moment that i want to own it i have a ton of faith in the creativity of that brand and the ability to drive that flywheel to all those different divisions. i don't need it to outperform tomorrow i think you've had plenty of time to get clarity on what this means for disney. we have breaking news from washington, d.c. >> looks like the u.s. is announcing new tariffs of 25% on

french goods, but saying those tariffs will not kick in for 180 days as the u.s. waits to see if and when france begins collecting on its digital services tax the u.s. has said that digital services tax would hit tech giants like apple, facebook and google and it said that a 25% tax on french goods would be equal to the amount that it expects france to collect on those u.s. companies that would be in the neighborhood of 4$450 million this year and $500 million next year some of the products that could be affected would be makeups, soaps and handbags but the u.s. saying that is not a full list of items now, previously the u.s. had threatened even higher tariffs of 100% on products also including wine, champagne, et cetera so this appears to be at least an opening salvo as they play a game of chicken with france here to see if france does make good

on its promise to begin collecting that digital services tax. the u.s., again in retaliation threatening a 25% tax on french impor imports. >> dan, the eu countries have targeted u.s. tech companies is this a good way of saying, you know what, no more >> well, i don't think so. we know that the eu is likely to leave in regulation our tech companies taxes, just kind of one component of it. it's interesting that our trade negotiators want to get pretty aggressive with france, obviously one of our closest allies at a time when it seems we're back in a trade war with china for all intents and purposes the president suggested that their phase two trade deal is not going to happen. i didn't think there was a phase one trade deal to begin with we're going to fight with everybody. we're going to fight with our friends, we're going to fight with our enemies. >> tim >> if i just think about the

luxury goods section and where france plays a role, i think this is a case where you have to be a little bit concerned on the headline here. i think the ability to carry out some of these and bilateral leverage et cetera, i'm not particularly happy to see that this is the tactic we continue to play, again, through tariffs and different type of trade sanctions. this is what this administration likes to do. they haven't always been good for u.s. companies i think in the short run this is a headline at a time that certain segments of luxury, not all luxury, some parts of luxury are impervious to this, but luxury should be coming under pressure >> i know you're partial to an

hermes scarf. >> always. who watching the show isn't? listen, i'm going to be as delicate as i possibly can, you know, i'm not looking to cast apersi aspersions to our french friends, but the red ribroader t i'm hard pressed to believe this has any impact whatsoever. coming up, the race to $2 trillion the chart master is with us. he'll break down which tech titans will get there first. at leaf blowers.

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the nasdaq hitting another all-time high as apple, amazon and microsoft each close in on a $2 trillion market cap who gets there first chart master is here to tell us. what do you say? >> let's look at the assets. h one of four charts take a look at the first one we have a one-year performance and we see amazon versus microsoft versus apple amazon is basically double the performance of microsoft which in turn is better than apple all right. how about five years second chart, ten years. look at amazon versus apple versus microsoft here to yo you have amazon leadn

the way. apple and microsoft have more price history, but all three of them going back to 1997, we can't even see the other two lines. in fact, this is very humbling for all of us. $10,000 invested in 1997 in amazon is worth 32 million so the final chart this is the chart of amazon. i've got several annotations you see those flat lines, four of them? amazon has had three distinct periods where it went sideways and thing a big breakout you see the second instance from 2013 to 2015 and breaks out and of course this most recent instance where it was flat from 2018 to 2020 and broke out after each breakout we see a

percentage game. that was up 315% all you have to do is advance 25% from here. that would take you to around 4,000 a share, which would be the $2 trillion mark so of these three, it's anybody's guess. it's a horse race. my guess, i'm betting on amazon. >> technically, carter, at the beginning of this new move higher started when? >> two and three years after consolidati consolidation. what we know is this breakout is only underway in the past six months >> carter, thank you let's trade this one

>> i think i like it a little bit more there's an old adage that says follow the cash. you can close your eyes. i don't think you could go wrong but amazon is still younger and emerging i think there's still room for growth and innovation there. >> guy >> so they're neckand neck as we hit the club house turn now to do a horse racing theme i'll go with microsoft, though this is one i think weave been pretty steadfast on. i know as growth slows it's still ridiculous growth. they report on july 22nd

i think out of the three, microsoft is going to be the first to get there. >> i suspect it's amazon but not from this price right here it's important to go back and look when they reported their q-1 results on april 30th they had a loss of 1.5 billion to a gain of 1.5 billion. that was far worse than expected 3200 today i thiwould expect the company to guide lower on the operating income again as they do with this new set of demands dealing with the pandemic. amazon has an amazing future it's up 15% this month alone already. >> so many companies can't guide on anything, tim >> yes i think that's fair. this is one of the great would you rathers. >> i was waiting for somebody to

bring that up. >> you know, it usually has to be me. again it was tonight but i would say it's been a joke it doesn't matter. i think amazon is probably the one that also because of the business units and paubecause of the ability to be recreating how we're doing business in e-commerce, i like that. as much as i think apple is probably the most secure owner of all the three, i do worry they put so much good news on 5g and services in the short to medium term. as an investor, that's the one i would want to own. coming up, we're counting down to a huge week ahead for earnings

♪ come on in, we're open. ♪ all we do is hand you the bag. simple. done. we adapt and we change. you know, you just figure it out. we've just been finding a way to keep on pushing. ♪ i know thatust been finding every time that i suit up, there is a chance that that's the last time. 300 miles an hour, thats where i feel normal.

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morg morgan given its standing as a large commercial and investment bank, it will give us some insight on the financial system of the consumer one, i'm looking at the loan loss provisions. two is the net interest margins. that will speak to the core banking business three, i'm looking at trading and fee generation that's going to speak to volatility and volume in trading and also the ability for corporates to access capital market >> we've got enough out of the bank the volumes are up about 30% off the bottom but still down 10% from pre-covid i want to know what's going on bottom line here is what they've expressed is while they're

slightly better in the second quarter, they're not terribly excited about covid-19 and the impact what it's doing to their operational ability to do their jobs and within their staff and their team they're even talking about it i still think these are the names we need to find out more kansas city southern on friday, pay attention. >> guy >> so i'm looking at wells fargo. it's interesting bear just upgraded the stock today a $35 price target a day after news that wells fargo is planning of letting go tens of thousands of employees the one thing i'll be looking at is loan loss provision it was 13.71 billion last quarter, up 413% year over year.

it's going to be interesting what they say this quarter i think it gives a good snapshot as to what's going on. it probably bounces post earnings to me, any rally in wells fargo is an opportunity to sell it again. >> dan >> i'm going to stick with johnson & johnson. it's probably one of the first dow names to make a new all-time high from april from its prior high i think this is a cheap stock with earnings only expected to be down 10% year over year i think you play this one for a breakout from the down trend from that april high here into earnings next week >> disney. stay with disney. >> lqd >> dan >> johnson & johnson back up to

that april high. >> intel had a great day today >> top of the hour, bonus edition of "fast money." do not go anywhere

we've got a big show lined up for you today >> as the lyrics go, to everything there is a season for the big banks, that season is next week carter worth will help you orchestrate a progression that could help you score then it's a stock with a mixed prognosis, but tony zang has been taking a closer look at johns johnson & johnson's charts >> there's a lot of potential here. >> and