tv Street Signs CNBC July 16, 2020 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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what about all the other victims here that can't speak to-- to shirlee or thomas or roger or mary? test welcome to "street signs." i'm karen tso. these are your headlines chinese deep in the red despite expectations as investors focus on deeper aspects of the economy. autos are a bright spot as french car sales post a come back featuring psa and renault shares rich mont sees red
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unprecedented disruption the swiss luxury giant flags a strong recovery in china heineken trades lower as the beer maker plunges prompting the group to intensify cost cuts. in frankfurt, the ecb faces a crucial test will look to prove that it has more fire power needed we bring you more coverage to this runup to decision time. the chinese stock markets plunged into the close despite encouraging growth data. shanghai composite 4.5% lower.
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marking the worst daily performance in each index since february the china gdp grew rebounding from the first quarter recession as they use the lockdown and first quarter stimulus more on the chinese data. >> a bounce back from growth from q 2 after strict lockdowns and travel restrictions and some of that stimulus kicked in if you look at that key data for the month of june, industrial output lead to the recovery and third output growth of 4.8% suggesting demand is improving fixed asset improvement fell 4.81%. also better than expectations
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and retail sales, missed expectations fall 1.8% year on year slumped the sixth time in a row. a spokes woman did say this retail data shows consumption recovery still needs to be bolstered and china still faces employment pressure and will make an effort to stabilize. we know that is key to stability in china the unemployment rate in june was 5.7% the bureau warned that china's recovery still faces pressure due to increasing external risks and challenges we are seeing rising geopolitical issues with the u.s. further cases and lockdowns
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could continue to weigh on exporters. the market action in europe today has been weak from the offset, we've been dropping to negative territory a reversal from an up beat tone yesterday as investors continue to focus on vaccine hopefuls and news of a vaccine would clearly change the narrative investors eyeing that news what we are hearing this morning in a key piece of evidence, saying the editor and chief were telling us they do believe there will be a vaccine. we are waiting through the economic fallout and we are seeing a lot of weak profit numbers crossing the tape even today. let let's delve into what we are
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seeing the french market to a similar tune this market was up about 2%. we saw the french stocks better on the core market they give back today some of the territory behind it. the last hours of trade have minimized some of the red ink we've witnessed. you can see spain and italy just below the flat line. in the trade, there has been optimism around this trading fund being debated by leaders this wook. there is in feeling they'll benefit from any money handed out in loans and grants. keeping that support and you can see the smi is in lock step about other core markets the individual sek torz, we had a couple of bright the spos on the boards in the last half hour after every patch of the market was red. oil and gas responding to some
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of the latest commentary and the picture. autos improving. banks shooting up to the green as well. a good strong report from goldman sachs on all the trading and that has put a little support. updates about how grim the trading period has been for the trading companies and food and beverage and the lufrmry basket has impacted those particular names across the boards. >> speaking of earnings season, ramping up in europe this is a look at big names reporting. heineken dropping revenue by more than 16% as bars and pups went into lockdown with the beer maker saying it already took cost mitigating actions. reported a 27% drop in first quarter sales as the pandemic
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hit stop sales in services the french engineering group posts the annual target by more than 5%. up more than 4% after raising the full-year earnings guidance. benefitting from some of the trends expects four-year revenue to increase by 15% clearly many of us doing more online shopping during the pandemic even if it's a cautious wading back into the luxury retail space. ferragamo to raise prices 5 to 7% group sales fell in the quarter. luxury names like prada, gucci
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and louis vitton >> asia pacific providing support with sales in china falling 45%. others reporting in the telco space. julianna, it is staggering to see the extent of the fall out for many of these names. how bad it was in particular, seeing it in heineken numbers normally, all of those channels, it would send beer through more cost cutting required from that particular company. >> i think the overall trends won't come as a surprise to market participants you can make these calls given that we can all look around the world and see what the lockdowns are actually doing what is interesting is how many
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companies had to redirect examination lease. how wide that is when it comes to the expectations that require companies to come out and public numbers early if they are substantially out of line from where the consensus slips. we've been reacting to unscheduled numbers and releases a lot of the investors and being bionary right now whether we get a vaccine or not >> we've had a huge focus on luxury names
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we saw burberry yesterday with stores closed. china in the crisis and bouncing back and then north america and europe being hard hit. i was fascinated in the richemont numbers. burberry had a similar sized print talking about 30 plus numbers. there is some health in that high end chinese consumer. despite what they were pointing out that the chinese consumer was very much constrained. there is a big part of the market some parts still doing okay. the other has been the
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acceleration of digital trends we've seen it in these numbers saying that on line distributions and sales contributed 8% versus 2% in the prior year even in business gearing up for more on line sales, we saw that acceleration or push towards the online channel >> karen, it is very important the point you make about recovery in china. the paean has hit the world in a se sequential way that is something madam lagarde has touched on the ecb will outline the latest policy with the central bank expected to maintain measures ratcheting up measures to agree on a blockwide recovery fund let's get to annetta
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after june's meeting where they deliver this major expansion of their bond buying program. today, it feels like they are waiting to get to the wait and see mode >> what is crucial from the markets is some reassurance that they are not going to taper the program. there are concerns in the market that this could happen the run rate which they were buying the last week of june was the lowest since the inception of the program just at $20 billion euro that gives some ground to say, why don't we just stick to that and perhaps we don't need to use the full envelop of the pap. i guess this concern has to get
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out of the markets again and most likely christine lagarde will address those concerns at least during the q and a session. she most likely will have to some reassurance on that and i think interesting will be how the ecb thinks about the recovery we had commentary out from the vice president saying that it looks that the recovery could actually be stronger than previously expected that could play in the hand of the hawks who were arguing that we don't need that much support from the ecb. the other thing is the inflation, whether this whole crisis doesn't have serious effect and would warrant more ecb action bottom line is we would got a
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reiteration of that stance that if need be they could do more and for now, they've deployed a lot of measures and look how those are working. for now, they are looking fine looking at bond spread and the conditions, they are quite happy with what they've done so far. with that, back to you >> thank you let's go to a chiefeconomist a ubs. we are watching the ecb closely today expected to be on the sidelines. you've also flagged out to us some of the tweaking aided to aid the mechanism of the policy. >> yes last fall, they set an exception
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minus 015 deposit rate that increased liquidity, we think now the time has come that the ecb should raise that factor from 6 to 10 times the minimum reserve requirement to make sure the rising amounts do not lead to higher costs for the banking sector >> what tone do you think madam lagarde will strike today? >> we are in wait and see mode that means everything that has to go forward will be data dependent. seeing how the market recovery will proceed and that christine lagarde will rule nothing out.
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that signal is better than expected, the ecb remains on track through the whole program. it would be a mistake to signal today, there is nothing the ecb could gain from that >> clearly, we are counting down to european leaders and how they would dole out a series of grants and loans do you think madam lagarde will try to sound cautious around this recovery. >> this won't be the case but i would have thought the same on the 4th of june. the last case, they acted more boldly than we expected. the recovery matters hugely. politically to set the right perspective is very important. we should be very careful in the way that recovery fund will probably only kick in properly
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in stimulating the eurozone economy as of late next year or even 2022. that means in the next couple of months, we will remain dependent on the policy of the ecb >> we've seen in the recent weeks that some lucky person assigned there gets to read through the documentation to ascertain whether they've overstepped the mark how constrained do you think the ecb pet project will be given from the constitutional court. >> on the second of july, con fir -- confirming the challenge has been put to rest we do believe the ppp will be challenged in the german court
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as well. they are breathing down the neck of the ecb they are some what constrained also why these people, the german member of the executive committee of the ecb are now stressing that the ppp is really a temporarily program that is exceptional because they feel it will be challenged it is important to argue that this was something very, very special, not the new normal. >> there is much debate whether the ecb should weigh into the territory of junk bonds. there are a lot of unknowns whether the vaccine materializes in the meantime, how involved the ecb should get to provide some support to the market what do you make of it, feeling they are playing for some time game and making sure the economy
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doesn't go too deep into the recession. >> we think the ecb is looking at the potential to purchase new junk bonds and that they could buy bank loans guaranteed. but this would be data dependent. otherwise, if junk bond markets could do reasonably well if the region remains stable, this is not something the ecb might have to do it will be dependent and pragmatic. they suggested that purchases of junk bonds is not something they have to look at with urgency and that they will not rule something out for the future, i would think. >> getting you to weigh in before we go the euro has climbed to one of the highest levels of the year
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trading before that deep market selloff in early march what do you make of that handle and implication across the block. >> the euro is still relatively cheap. we calculate that dollar is around 135, 140. also important to say i think the euro has appreciated for good reasons i think the powerful stimulus and recovery fund has brought back confidence that europe can recover and will be able to get its act together and will help the currency it is appreciated for the right reasons. if it were to go much further towards 125 towards these levels, it would become a problem for the ecb but we are not there yet. for these levels, 140. they are not the problem but we'll watch it further as we go
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european new car sales fell 24.1% in june. carmakers were boosted by lockdowns. >> pretty hard to sell a car when the dealers are closed. >> that's right. peugeot said their global sales almost doubled in june against may in europe. the most important market sales doubled and deliveries were up 71% against may. so that is a strong recovery the market was around 39% in the first half they say it was particularly affected in south europe where they have early market share in those countries. they increase the market share in france and italy in this
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period they also said in the middle is the overall sales remain and were down 27% and fell in your asia where they said markets were up. a little recovery market for peugeot. there on line to emit on emissions to the target this year which is good news for peugeot. they won't have to pay a fine to brussels they are still in line in the program saying they will reach the increasing range by 2021 there on line with this. also, as you mention those car sales being negative in europe down 24% apart from france
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welcome to "street signs." i'm karen tso. these are your headlines chinese equities close deep in the red despite gdp beating expectations with a jump in the second quarter as investors focus on the weaker aspects of the economy. european stocks are in the red french car sales show a demand come back boosting psa and renault shares european union's top port
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use a peak tool in a face that pitted facebook against privacy activists. twitter is forced to freeze some of the most high-profile accounts after hackers target jeff bezos, bill gates and joe biden. sending shares of twitter down let's get a check at how european markets are trading now. we are seeing some red on the board here equities following asia lower with every region. every sector in the red following autos around the flat line over the last minute. yesterday, travel and leisure was the real outperformer leading higher off the
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prepandemic highs. today, the focus for investors will be that ecb decision we are awaiting in a fur hour's time. no policy change instead focused on the implementation announced let's get a check on the broader markets. strengthened on the four-month high holding steady on the dollar sterling weakening versus the dollar let's check on u.s. futures. it was a volatile day yesterday for wall street. we are looking at a fairly muted start to trade and mixed picture with futures bouncing around the flat line. we did see u.s./china pictures most stocks did end higher best performing were some of those hit hardest by the
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pandemic a lot for u.s. investors to piece through as the market opens up in a few hour's time. let's push on to look at a few corporate stories. tsmc has broken its own earnings record after the surge in profit the world's largest contact chip maker posted a boost well ahead of the forecast. it said it intends to follow all regulations regarding the u.s. ban on huawei. shares in semiconductor international are up 200 in their debut in shanghai. the listing comes as china looks to grow the semi conductor sector amid trade tensions with the u.s. we have this report. >> reporter: this morning,
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shares popped 245% at the open they opened at 95 yuan per share after being prices at 27.46. this is the biggest price jump in the history coming more independent in the semiconduct yr industry. that move has been accelerated by the trade war between the u.s. and china and is a key part when it comes to technology. smic requires the $6.6 billion invested far behind taiwan or south korea. using the cash to catch up with other providers looking to catch up with huawei to look for other
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providers of chips giving a rally of shares up 200% premium. clearly excitement about the long-term prospect and broader ambition in the chip space >> for more on the main land lifting, you can check out their website. using a tool to transfer personal data to the united states allowing companies to move data around the world in the case pitting facebook against austrian privacy activist a number of high-profile twitter accounts have been hacked with tweets asking users to send bitcoin to a certain address.
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coordinating the social engineering attack twitter fell in after-hours trading. >> bill gates, elon musk, former presidents >> all the classic elements of a scam they are using this to convince people to transfer their money over to this account >> each of the tweets urges users to send bitcoin to a certain address. >> with the promise that they'll be paid back double. >> several hundred people responded sending in hundreds of thousands of dollars twitter released a statement saying we are aware of a security incident and taking steps to fix it. >> the greater issue is that it shows a huge security flaw >> the network used by
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entertainers, business leaders and the president of the united states >> reporting for nbc news. a terrific performance on stocks in recent weeks seeing a trend in the digital trends showing you how the index has performed year to date a bounce of 17.5%. clearly a lot of stocks on the nasdaq from social media companies to software and even biotech names have rallied aggressively a look at the stoxx index. year to date, it's up more than 8% trying to track behind the u.s. peers. >> joining us from managing directors wedbush securities one of the stories around
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twitter, saying it could have been much worse. messaging and different tweets that would have had reputation damage on twitter. a lot of advertisers have had a pause on social spending what do you think the ramifications will be for twitter? >> this is a black eye for twitter. any types of cyber hacks in this period are unnerving to advertisers and consumers. i think the jury is still out but definitely a black eye for twitter. >> so-called growth and defensive names in the market. if you look at what's priced in, look at netflix. a lot of earnings and optimism
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is priced in and not looking at the negatives around competition. same thing with facebook we know this is an advertising model but advertising has fallen off the cliff >>. >> e commerce cloud and other areas have been accelerated. you get to the near-term numbers, i think it is a shrug the shoulders type quarter looking around to the other side of the dark value. there is a lack of secular growth stories in my opinion, faang name sttech
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stocks still go higher >> amazon stock 62% higher year to date. what do you think of analysts looking for different acronyms other than faang i heard them talking about smarts do you think there is enough interest in smaller names away from the faangs? >> i think you are starting to see rotation to broader tech across software to cyber security look at the work-from-home trends that's not slowing down. the zoom and the slack are really the hearts and lungs. the cloud infrastructure building that out. microsoft is front and center benefitting there. you'll see 30% trends today.
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if you look at work loads in the cloud. that's accelerating 55% in the next two years putting massive fuel in the tank of tech you are seeing that spread it is faang names that lead it cyber security and chips will participate going through the year >> dan, i want to get your take on tesla, which has had an extraordinary run. i know you've been bullish on tesla and the china story. you called it the heart and lungs of the tesla story from a guest in the u.s., they said when people buy a tesla, they are not buying a vehicle, they are buying a tesla regarding the brand. what does this mean for others in the market as european automakers are making moves to
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this space spurring the electric vehicle up tick can tesla maintain its position in the park et >> right now, it is tesla's world and everyone else is paying rent in terms of the ev market china, they are up $400 a share because of what they build in terms of giga. we are talking the tesla brand, the musk dna going back to what apple built going into a store and what customers bought when buying a phone. that's what we are talking about now in europe and competitors. now, there is a line in the sand building that factory in berlin and on pace for a million units
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by 2022. that stock is still going higher and $2,000 is bull placed. >> i want to shift and talk about the streaming landscape. yesterday, peacock was launched. this is our parent company universal. we are likely to see exclusive content, so shows pulled from other platforms and shown only on peacock similar to disney plus and hbo max. what does this look like for the future are consumers really going to be willing to subscribe to all of these individual services? >> right now, we think will is room for another one to two streaming services disney has had massive success
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in our view, peacock is something you could see 100 million subs the content, especially the olympics next year will be another competitive advantage. you look at more enter rants next year. right now, it is a battle royal for for market share i still think there is room for another one to two in the average household. peacock is in the driver's seat with this new model, especially the ad model i just want to break in with some comments. the eu's vestager court ruling
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on the second lost in the courts the other one was around apple and paying back taxes to the eye rush government. what we saw was vestager tightening with the stricter regulation ahead of the digital tax how seriously do you think this will weigh up >> this is more and more front and center for the ruler on the positive and this was facebook. they would continue to be there not just in the eu but in the bell way i'll tell you rooity now, investors are factoring in more
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fines. it does feel like the momentum is starting to increase. this will be something on both sides of the pond. you'll see the battle versus the beltways continuing to take shape. going into the next few weeks where you'll see all those major ceos virtually appearing in front of the congress. >> there has been history of that from the european side in recent years thank you for joining us managing director from wedbush securities >> let's push on and tell you what is coming up. lifting goldman sacks numbers lifting estimates despite coronavirus fears. more after the break save hundreds on your wireless bill
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bank's best outperformance in nearly a decade posting $2.4 billion 66% above expectations revenue of $3.3 billion beat forecast as trading and investment units jumped a massive 250% the bank set aside $1.6 billion for potential loan losses let's bring in our next guest, u.s. financial analyst so goldman has come out with these block buster trading numbers. does anyone think these numbers are sustainable? >> no.
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when you look at the second half of the year, it will quiet down a bit. jamie dimon himself talking about cautious of how sustainable those numbers are. >> another big take away are the higher provisions banks have been forced to take. where do you think we stand in terms of provisioning? have we seen peak provisions? >> these should be peak provisions the banks have leaned into the more conservative forecast there is still expectations we'll get a v-shaped recovery and they'll go forward from there. as we go through the second quarter, it was quite clear. that was better than the worst
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case scenario. they are better recovered there. that might slow the recovery in the u.s. i think expectations where we'll see higher provisions have been higher than that when they talk through it, they've got various scenarios. they are giving it a little more weight particularly reservations about recovery coming through. >> a lot of investors around the buy back and cut their dividend. do we manage to get anymore information about what lies ahead on the rekofcovery of the share holders. >> some of the banks are holding out some capital in q 4. as we get to 2021, i think you
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might see some buy backs start to resume. investors rely on the dividend incomes coming through these banks. >> apart from wells fargo, most are confident they'll be retained in the negative earnings from most of the banks. capital ratios have remained very strong. high provisions have been more than offset by the strong revenue. apart from wells fargo, we've seen goldman sachs and citigroup come through with strong numbers. >> can you give us a sense on what lies ahead with net interest income. we have seen a lot of those take a hit. what lies ahead in terms of the rate scenario and any statement in the yield curve that will improve for these banks.
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>> that will be a positive that will lead through to the expansion. net interest margins we'll get a big steep name there for from here, they will decline slightly or flatten out from the q 2 number. there was a big decline this quarter. on this aspect overall, you did see rapid pay downs from the draw down taken early on in the crisis that is just the overall blows to the names of the banks. there have been a few offsets. >> john, there was a comment from guests early on bugging me around goldman sachs saying the
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quarter was almost too good, almost indecent. when you think about where we started in this crisis, banks had a lot to make up on the front end. as they were handing out some of these loans and the assistants bigger banks cleaning up while everybody else is feeling the pain of the fall out economically does that mean there will be push back on the track >> i think that is an obtuse way to look at it. the banks have tried hard to be there the whole way. we've seen a strength in trading numbers as discussed largely that was all intermediation work so sitting there making sure they could health products the way they wanted to whether that
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was commodities on behalf of the clients. speaking on behalf of the customers for that way on the consumer side as well the banks have worked very hard on the right side for customers. they are all aware that they were the epicenter for this financial crisis they were working very hard on the financial side that has worked very well. they have made some good revenues on the back of that they are not making a killing by any stake. that's probably a little bit of a harsh way. >> that's all for the show today. thank you for watching 49... 50!
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