it is 5:00 in new york your "top five @5. big tech in control or is it calling some of the biggest momentum stocks insane after $200 trillion in value in one day. amazon up adding billions to jeff bezos' bank account >> adding to the commander and chief that could help stem the spread >> congress debating about the next round of stimulus will

break down the key sticking points and a "worldwide exchange" exclusive ed morse making phone calls the investment is his best bet right now. you'll hear it here on "worldwide exchange" on cnbc >> good morning, good afternoon, good evening from wherever in the world you may be watching. from here in the states, i'm brian sullivan kicking off with the big blue. no real rbi today. let's call this the rbi. ibm is up some 5 in the pre-market if the gains hold there on ibm and they may not if they do, that could ad 45 points to the dow at the open.

ibm your rbi it is very rare that ibm rises after earnings according to our own earnings guru, this is the 23rd eps beat. up bigly we'll call it ibm, your rbi and you are making investors today a little bit of dough. >> 70% of the time in the past five years, your stock appears to be down after earnings. this is the eighth straight quarter where sales are flat down on the year to those highe

futures, the nasdaq showing gains right now. with the move yesterday, the s&p 500 is nos now positive on the year seemingly impossible to believe but up more than 1% when you include dividend payments. let's be clear, it is not about the s&p, it is about technology. the nasdaq overall surging 2.5%. another record close, 28th of the year that move doesn't even begin to tell the story amazon up nearly 8%. t tesla more than 9% microsoft, apple, facebook, faang all facing highs of the day. those stocks adding more than

$29 $291 billion in one day along. jim cramer saying, quote, moves like we are seeing in microsoft, tesla and amazon are truly insane and unlike any i have seen in my entier life >> big comments. withous, ma with us, jim saying it is insane, do you think it is >> i don't think it is insane but definitely a little bit frothy it is nothing new. the extreme valuations have been ignored. also where commerce is going there is a link that is some what justifiable you look at what you you are doing and noodle around on facebook and shopping on amazon and searching on google.

you are still relatively working from home and staying from home. you are pulling up netflix it is not a manufactured craze whether or not the valuations are legitimate, time will tell yesterday, mark cuban was saying the tech bubble wasn't just a six month or one-year bubble it went on for years you don't pull out of what is working well because it may be a little overvalued. it may have years of being overvalued >> i get your point, mark. it is a certain demographic. you are ordering your amazon whole foods on your iphone and picking it up on your tesla and coming home to watch your favorite shows i get that some people think i'm insane

others agree you've got these stocks running these etfs valuations may not matter to some point >> you throw in the robin hood effect you are talking about where all the etfs are weighted and including whatever metric you are going to use the big mutual funds are buying them nobody wants to not be a winner. all the money managers are participating in it. no matter where you turn, you'll own these stocks whether there are six or seven

names, it doesn't seem to matter to investors you can't blame them. >> unless they go down that's the risk. i'm saying we've got guys like jim writing in and calling this insane if those stocks roll over is there any way that can hold up those sick could bring the market down. could they not >> those six could bring the market down. i'm saying as an investor, being allocated has made sense i'm not going to be the first one to say i'm the smartest guy in the room and the first one to pull out i really want investors to be

broadly diversified and somehow hold their nose and still investment if you are a long-term investor and nearing retirement you don't want to say just because of some transports or industrials or medical technology hasn't been participating like the sexy faang names, i don't want to invest them as they go up. you want to own both sides and look at some of the value names that trailed or lagged we had good reports this week from the investment. i don't like financials or banks. i think morgan stanley and goldman sachs of the world came in with great earnings there on the value side. they can diversify master card can get you into the financial space. as an investor, find ways to

broaden out and go for stocks that are undervalued or selling at multiples anbar bell them that's how we are structured and makes sense for investors. >> some good advice there and a good discussion and debate happening at 5:05 in the morning. >> shows over, folks kidding. overseas, good news on the path forward out of the pandemic. a more reasonable hour of the day with julianna tatelbaum. good morning or good afternoon >> good morning, brian this is a big moment for europe. european leaders have finally struck a deal on $750 billion euro recovery package after a contentious subm contentious summit that lasted five days. being handled as the leaders

continued viability. 390 billion in grants. lower than the initial 500 billion. 24 they have agreed on the 750 billion package. the main benchmark is currently up 1.1% reflecting gains across every region here. we are seeing stronger gains italian and spanish stocks leading the way higher those are a couple of key economies on aid that's been agreed brian, back to you >> julianna, thank you here at home, some reason for hope, dom is here with that and more >> the u.s. is reporting the smallest increase of new coronavirus cases and deaths in

a week hot spots around the country pull back from recent records. just under 60,000 people in the u.s. tested positive for the virus over the past 24 hours down by 4,000 from the previous day. florida leading. reporting the sixth straight day of 10,000 cases or more but that is still down some 30% from the peak it hit earlier this month >> in washington, d.c., prum u will resume holding coronavirus press briefings. this will be the task force's first press briefing in months this comes as the president shakes up messaging around mask wearing saying it is patriotic to wear a mask when social distancing is not possible quest die no, ticks is warning it will be impossible to

increase coronavirus testing capacity this fall as it will have to cope with demand associated with the traditional flu season the executive vice president said, quote, there is no way capacity is going to double in the next three months. he adds that other solutions need to be found to detect positive patients with the nazal swab test is used. i do have my own patriotic face covering i will wear whenever we cannot social distance >> you may have seen people who pull their t-shirt up because they forgot their mask at least in new jersey, masks are like easy pass i just don't understand people who have it. just hang it from your rearview

mirror like amex, you never leave home without it >> every car has one, every bag has it i keep one in my pocket. >> we are going to have a mask competition. >> here it is. >> let's do it you are winning right now. i'm going to come back at you. thank you. we are just getting started when we come back on a tuesday morning. behind what could be the largest ipo in history why new york may be left out in the cold and it may not be a name you know. new concerns for boeing as the 737 max fleet continues to collect dust dc is asking questions and later, citigroup head of commodities is up. he says is his best bet right now? that exclusive is coming up. dow is up 235.

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congress want to know if the faa thought about its approval process for the max jet and buyer both win and lose in court. some of the stocks to watch today. lawmakers probing the 737 max asking if the faa will disclose

a survey on the agency's safety culture. conducted last december asked them how they felt about a long-standing faa survey that delegates a task to employees themselves the house has already determined issues with that program that were contributing factors to the two deadly crashes involving the 737 max jet. novartis profit fell cutting sales outlook for the year now expecting growth in the midsingle percentage range ubs's second quarter net profit fell but still beat analysts forecast offset by a downturn warning that credit losses in the second half of the year as well bayer lost an appeal to go to

trial linking roundup weed killer california reducing initial damage reward from $300 million to roughly $20 million those shares up about 2%, brian. i'll send things back to you >> this could be the largest combined giving you the cold shoulder it may be the biggest ipo. >> good evening and good morning to you, brian. planning to list closer to home in hong kong and shanghai. u.s. politics could have played a part a lot startups say listing here is more attractive is that they feel investors would understand

their business better. hong kong for international and shanghai for domestic investors. ant group is a house-hold name that started out as an online payment provider last value it was $150 billion the talk is that they are seeking a $200 billion valuation. that is surprising given that scale of the company has $900 million active users in china. 1.3 billion active users globally 50% of revenue is derived from services such as ai cloud, blockchain the main stay of the business is still in payments and financial

services to broaden out more of what they know and what they do, they actually dropped financial from their name. they are now known as ant group. le would you say for our american users, it is like apple pay? what is the u.s. equivalent of what ant group is? >> i think it would be like apple pay and amazon and paypal and some of the banks all got together and came out with a distorted looking baby i don't know what it would look like but it would look like ant

group. >> it comes from alibaba it would be like amazon and apple pay and paypal, right? >> you said you didn't want to fail the audience. >> hold on, i forgot something i want to say thank you. i got this from eunice the pillow from the factory that you sent i sleep on it every night. >> i assuming you pulled it up right now because of the lag from the censors, i actually can't see what you are doing >> i'm holding up the pillow where you do the thing and it shows my face. >> that's right. the factory is going to say thank you for going live from the factory.

>> every time i see your face, i laugh. eunice yoon about a year ago thank you. still on deck. i know, it's tuesday why the u.s. restaurant recovery may be gngoi in reverse unfortunately. we'll break down what's going on

it looks like the momentum could continue nasdaq up nearly 1% following

the 2.5% gain which added $300 billion to the faang names alone. forget reaching across the aisle. your next guest says republicans still need a consensus among themselves when it comes to the next stimulus. and he had ward morse and what he says may be the best investment for you when we come back on "worldwide exchange" after this

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big tech fuelled big rally rolls on pushing markets back in positive territory for the year what assistance may look like and what it may cost taxpayers jeff bezos only getting richer this is "worldwide exchange"

here on cnbc welcome back on tuesday morning. i'm brian sullivan the big question is whether it will be a big tech day it looks like it might be. more gains dow futures up 230 and nasdaq up about 1% with yesterday's move, s&p 500 is positive on the year. seemingly impossible to believe, right. up more than 1% when you include dividend payments. good for the s&p and owners. let's be clear, it is all about technology yesterday was no exception nasdaq surging up 2.5% counting at home, that's the 28th record close of the year. that move doesn't even tell the story. the big names you know

the faang names, amazon, up 8% tesla more than 9. microsoft, apple, netflix all surging. those moves, those stocks adding $291 billion adding in yesterday's trade prompting jim cramer, quote, moves like we are seeing in microsoft, tesla and amazon are truly insane and unlike anything i have ever seen in my life by the way, not calling it insane big blue, ibm an important story for the dow. up more than 5% pre-market maybe we'll add an i somewhere to that acronym. president trump has thrown a wrench into talks with his own administration and senate republicans on the next virus relief bill. the president demanding a payroll tax cut be added and

that funding for virus testing be reduced or cut completely republicans are bauking at that idea as they try to get on a same page before beginning negotiations with democrats before leaving for a month-long august break we are joined now by former white house deputy press secretary and cnbc contributor and managing director of marketing research the republicans are fighting with the president ultimately. they'll have to come up with something and they will. what do you think the republicans want most? what is one or two on their stimulus wish list >> number one on their list. you can determine whether you include it on the stimulus or not is the liability profession they want. does it want some limited protection for businesses, offices, schools, everything

that won't open in the courts. that is first. they are looking for money they want checks mnuchin has been clear on that they want to do something with unemployment insurance change the bonus $600 was generous. they want to come up with some sort of model on the really elevated unemployment help >> the idea that businesses reopen, they get sick, they can't sue them for $100 million. some people argue that we'll never reopen in any kind of a scale. brian, i assume you agree with that with tony as far as the wish list. when do they begin negotiations with the democrats or have they already hinn the scenes? >> i think there have been soft negotiations ongoing for several weeks. they'll intensify and pick up

this week. they'll last into next week. i don't think the market is prepared for the fact that negotiations could go past the end of the month and into early august so negotiations have been going on and will intensify. the $600 a week in added incentives that have been tacked on, two-thirds of the people that received it ended up taking home more money than if they were working and most have spent that which has kept the economy going. that $600 extra benefit is now being hotly debated as either a back to work incentive or whether it exists at all what do you think happens with that payment

>> one, i do think it gets to some kind of back to work bonus or incentive that original supplemental check was hugely important because credit card payments have hung in there and been a forecast of what we expected i do think it will get converted back to something else. >> i'm old enough to remember the stimulus plan of barack obama and how everybody screamed

deficits, it was $980 billion. that seems like a pimple now do deficits matter especially to the gop? >> it is a great question. i remember having these debates back them and i remember arguing at the time the stimulus was too small. people always wondered what the capacity was it seems like we were pretty far off for what the capacity was out there to absorb treasuries and probably could have done a lot more these are unheard of numbers talking the trillion dollars the senate is asking for a trillion nancy pelosi and the house are saying $3 trillion it will be another big number. the hole is really big you want

to be careful about absorbing the limits >> it seems like modern theory people saying is this going to change the governing i don't want to say forever but for years to come. not saying this doesn't matter nows it like a trillion to payoff student loans, why not? medicare for all, why not? representatives will have different historical framework >> that is right the question is are we using it for consumption? the argument is can we use it for investment would you use it on health care education.

a longer rate of return where you would want to do this type of borrowing for either side, that's not a road they want to go down. >> long road to go here. new head winds for maybe the hardest hit industry of all trying to stay on track. that is of course, the restaurants here kate rogers joining us with more kate >> good morning, brian after a brief recovery last week, restaurant transactions dipped for the weekending july 12 as we saw covid cases rising around the country a drop from last week's dip. quick service chains drove that decline. down 13% full service fell 14%.

technically an improvement the group projects that is 82% of ra of restaurants are open. california has reversed its reopening plans for much of that decline. deopenings will no doubt decline the tracting business for on premise and sending to some of those performing well like papa johns, dominos same-store sales like chipolte and wing stop. some eight million jobs were lost the group calling for targeted aid in $120 billion in the next wave of pandemic aid and paycheck protection program. as many as 100,000 restaurants

have had to reclose over the past few weeks >> looking at data, some of the best numbers are down 25 to 30% from last year i guess, kate, even the states almost kind of completely reopened there are those states that exist, they are not doing that great either there seems to be a natural reluctance maybe some people won't go >> that is true. these restaurants are operating at 50% capacity, which is not sustainable. a lot of people are concerned to go out i'm right outside of new york city our downtown is crowded. not everyone feels safe entering that environment we've seen recent rises in states around the country. >> new jersey down 56% year over year, which is better than down 100% thank you, kate. on deck, another one bites

the dust one big studio is pulling the plug on a highly anticipated summer block buster movie. some of our exclusive conversation with oxford university and talk around the possible vaccine >> we have always said we were hoping get this vaccine being administered and used by the end of this year because of that, we've gone scale with manufacturing with astrazeneca and partners early on astrazeneca have now signed contracts to produce 2 billion doses. we won't have those by the end of the year but hopefully many millions and will be able to provide that for at risk individuals by the end of the year that's still the target.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we are watching shares of ibm now. shares jumping after results weren't as bad down from a year ago largely due to the pandemic. cloud commuting was a bright spot sticking with technology, amazon ceo jeff bezos's wealth growing.

adding $13 billion in a single day. surging 8% that stock up 75%. those shares up another 1.5% pre-market watching shares of at&t after announcing they are postponing the film "tenant" indefinitely expected to be the first major film release since the pandemic. sending things back over to you. >> thank you back to the broader markets and our exclusive conversation with citigroup's research publishing a 170-page note for expectations for oil, gold and

man. i began asking him about the hospit hospitalization of the saudi king >> it doesn't and to the degree we considered it, we thought the succession is likely to be straight forward to the crowned prince >> speaking of oil, you see 50 by year's end pushing toward 60. do you worry as oil prices go up, so will supply as prices go back down because of overproduction? >> we figured that out we've done a practical job when do rigs come back on? if you look at the world as a whole, we are at the same level seen as 2000 it took four or five years to deploy rigs globally that was after a period of relative glut and rig

availability the u.s. has probably never seen a rig count as low as this we've seen a couple of months as high as $45 a barrel we expect to have the companies making hedging decisions they'll start getting rigs going again. from that 180-rig count, they'll have to get to 400 to 500 before they start stopping the decline rates that will be continuing to that point and then start increasing production. we'll see the increase in the u.s. come next summer and to the fall it could be 400,000 barrels a day but then the u.s. will bottom out to 2.5 to 10 million a day where it peaks this

winter >> are we down now 2 million or will we go down 2.5 million a day? >> the eia is showing we are down 2 million a day how accurate the numbers are is not that far off that will be back shut in by a bunch of big and small companies that might add a million a day without the rig count going up, we'll see a decline in the underlying production levels that will be no higher than 10.5 million down from that 13 by the time we get to that next spring >> we had chevron buying noble energy on monday and jim cramer interviewed the ceo of chevron and the push to electric transportation how much of this shift will be 3er78 nent that many of these rigs will not come back because

gasoline demand will not come back as we move to evs is. >> we think the hydrocarbon future will be robust. to answer your question, no. we don't think the rig count will be seen earlier this year the ligest reason has to do with the use of credit and capital i the u.s. oil patch 45% of the drilling was not required a lot of these companies were never going to see positive cash flow already the percentage in the privates and total rig count has gone from 45 to 20%. a lot of those companies we think will not come back >> we'll see a resurgence and healthy companies coming back in and more discipline.

u.s. production can increase at a rate of 300 to 400,000 barrels a day a year that is different from a million and a half or a million barrels per year. >> does opec blow it they've been trying to make sure everybody sticks to those production cuts. do you think they'll have their act together this time >> i think they will for a while. the main parties which were saudi arabia, russia and a couple other gcc countries will look at the problems they confront in a highly independent world. we think they are going to be disciplined. others will be in a position to make a big difference of stealing market share from them. we think it is a probability of decent discipline. the other ones are having a very

difficult time attracting capital and their own oil company's share of the production cost. over time, we think that will work there are risks from the upside and down side. we don't think overproduction by that group of people is one of the big words. >> our big thanks, be sure to catch the rest of citigroup. more investment ideas on the commodity side check it out on deck, jim cramer making the case commodity rates on the rise is insane. his word laying out why it may be time to lighten up on big tech as we go to break, look at shares of ebay agreeing to sell its classified ads business to

adevina for $9.2 billion we are back the dow futures are up 238 we are back after this

look at that, markets are posed for yesterday's gains. joining us now managing director at btig. julian, welcome. jim calling the moves insane that is saying something what do you think about these moves? we did see these moves in 1999

and 2,000. when you have trillion dollar companies. this is one of these times as a long-term investor you want to reallocate these away as they've come in a disproportionate amount >> you are saying take a little profit, don't go broke and put it wear? we think health care is trading at an historic discount as investors are reliving the 2016

election due to the entire year due to what would have been the clinton administration regardless of the outcome, health care has become a strategic initiative clearly, the virus has made this as a place to be attacked and likely the effects of that reform >> i think health care is some part of the american economy it is the american economy of states within health care, what looks attractive >> to us, in a market where momentum has been strong and with respect to the technology

stock, too low in this environment. those involved in thinking about the virus and the vaccine with good solid yields, dividends and earnings are the places to rotate almost as if it is a substitute for bond exposure, really. >> what if big tech is going up. people are just passively vesting. they just put their money passively in an etf and own all the same stocks. they keep going up is that possible, julian >> it certainly happened for an extended amount of time. in 99 and 2000 to think the phrase, it is different this time is true. where investors have made

serious mistakes tech is a bigger proportion than it was in 2000 you had to suffer some pain for years to get to where you are. >> i think those are the four most dangerous names in investing, its different this time >> julian emanuel, thank you so much that does it for us. we'll send it to "squawk box" next hey, kids!

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stocks with another jump after yesterday's tech rally

that jim cramer called truly insane the for opportunities of jeff bezos and elon musk are higher by $9 billion. >> overnight, the european union agreeing to an unprecedented move to raise billions by selling bonds collectively whata concept. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here andrew ross sorkin here. becky is off today joe