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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  July 21, 2020 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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welcome back, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. the dow is up 300 points led by chevron and exxon.
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better than 1% move for the dow. nasdaq record highs. big tech taking a bit of a break. you see facebookdown as well as amazon amazon, netflix and microsoft lower. if it's tuesday, it must be tilman frittia calling on america's governors to show some real leadership and tell us where the goal posts are on reopening. power lunch starts right now tyler, thanks. it's energy leading the way today. on track for its best day since june 5th it might not matter as much as it used. bob has more >> technology stocks, 27% of the s&p 500. that doesn't include google which is really a tech company or amazon which is a consumer
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discretionary. all together top six companies are 25% of the s&p 500 just about. it's approaching that. it's crazy the rest of the sectors are shrinking. let me show you what the sectors are today. energy is only 3% of the s&p 500. now it used to be 5% a few years ago but financials have shrunken dramatically for example, it was 15% of the s&p just five years ago. industrials were 10% now it's down to 8 materials were 3 to 4% tech keeps growing and everything else keeps shrinking. that's a bit of a concern for the people who want some kind of diversification in the market. they are taking a day where they are selling some tech names and using them as sources of funds to buy other things. energy with oil over $42 banks are up even though they have been quite choppy industrials modest to the upside don't kid yourself today's rally many the energy
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stocks, long term stocks jumping today. we had some nice jump in prices on tuesday let's not kid ourselves. look at what's been going on year to date many of them down 30, 40, even 50% or more. remember the downturn started in 2015 bank stocks also down 30, 40 or 50%. just make it a point about diversification in the market. guys, back to you. >> all right thank you very much. with technology mostly driving the market gains recently. should investors be worried about how dependent the market is valerie grant is senior vice president portfolio manager at alliance bernstein and mark lehman is in securities. let's start with you valerie, are you concerned that there is narrowness in the market leadership, technology making up
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a huge percentage of the s&p 500 and an awful lot of the gains in the s&p 500 are attributable to handful of those companies >> right i'm not particularly concerned about the concentration in terms of what's driving the market upwards. what people have to understand is that technology companies really create the foundation of our economy right now. some of the classifications can be a bit misleading. while we think about financials, perhaps as being a smaller portion of the market, there are some financial services companies that are actually cat g categorized within i.t. services
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>> five stocks constitute 23% of the market value and for which a lot of the gains can be attributed were you or not? >> amazon touches every part of our lives. you look at venmo or square cash and look what they doing those are categorized as tech stocks but they are financials i remember jamie dimon saying venmo is one of the things they missed i agree the cat gorizations are tough. you have five companies that are huge part of the market this year that is worrisome any time you have that. the minute that foot is off the accelerator we'll see losses in the market that are out size like we seen the out size gains.
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the vix is going closer to 20 than 30. >> valley, i take your point that technology is not a monolithic sector at all your stock picks in that sector are testament to that. they are alphabet, paypay and the semiconductor manufacturing company asml tell me why you like those above all. >> it's important, as you mentioned to stay well diversified even within technology three of our core holdings are the ones that you mentioned. paypal, i'll pick up where i left off there this has been aphenomenal company in terms of its role in enabling payments for consumers as well as merchants the thing that we like about it in addition to the growth characteristic is that it really does well on corporate
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governance we concluded they really are best in class. that makes a tremendous difference in times like these when people are focused on covid-19, calls for racial equality i think paypal was able to step forward and play a leadership role in committing half a billion dollars to black and other minority owned businesses and other companies within silicon valley followed suit asml, we can pivot there to semiconductor manufacturing. they have fantastic technology which enables you to put very, very small and intricate designs on very small chips. i'm simplifying something complex. that's the value proposition they offer what we found is they are committed to using renewable energy sources they committed to zero carbon emissions by 2025. they have already increased their use of renewable
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electricity from 70% in 2017 to 97% in 2019. this is the company we like for a lot of reasons both esg and fundamentals >> those esg things, you and i talked about on air on prior occasions. let me turn back do you, mark. it's obvious they are not paying you enough looks like you are jp securities there. there's nobody else there, mark. there's nobody there >> yes i think manning the fort >> clearly underpaid you like facebook which i'm not sure would, in terms of governance that valerie would applaud but you like facebook, amazon and docusign, why those three? >> it's hard to call it laggard. it's lagging as it relates to the megacaps we talked about
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i think we'll have a lot more eyeballs and the advertisers on facebook and they have some work to do. mark zuckerberg is some of the advertisers that's been well documented the pace of thosebated a bit going into an election cycle, they will have a good second half amazon we don't need to discuss. >> docusign is a good example. we're doing everything over here i'm sure everybody is doing it that's what people are doing >> all right mark, thank you very much. keep manning the fort there. kelly. investors are anxiously awaiting the next round of stimulus out of washington as democratic nominee joe biden unveils more details about his economic plan. kayla has more for us. >> kelly, at this hour the treasury secretary stephen mnuchin and chief of staff are in the process of wrapping up a
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luncheon with all republican senators where they are trying to present so far. it could include about $105 billion for schools. direct checks. incentives for large and small businesses retain testing. the white house is still pushing for a payroll tax holiday. that remains unpopular on capitol hill senate majority leader mitch mcconnell on the senate floor said the u.s. economy doesn't need the cares act but it's not ready to go back normal. >> our country is in a complex middle ground between those two things we can't go back to april. we can't snap our fingers and finish the vaccine overnight
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we need to carve out a new normal >> reporter: democrats also support stimulusr cast castle, delaware talking about this plan. it would be paid for by increangmoving other tax loopholes. tyler and kelly. >> what's the time line on this? when do they hope to get it done >> reporter: well, it depends on how soon they can reach a deal we have about two to three weeks between now and the end of this work period for members of congress, but many of these programs, expanded unemployment benefits run out this friday they are definitely racing the clock and it at least a week or so, i would say, in washington time frame we saw with the cares act they were able to move at breakneck speed
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coming up, kmcheck out that stunning move. technology, as we mentioned lagging a bit there in the red the only one of the 11 this is tv's fall line up could be at risk with production ill mostly shut down but live sports coul ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ (music)
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welcome back the traditional media stocks have struggled this career production of the fall tv line up has been put on ice due to the pandemic
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streamers have seen record subscription growth. sports could bring record live tv ratings for these beaten down media tv companies let's bring in laura martin. she's managing director at needham and company. it's good to have you back listen, we all hope you're right. there's a lot of difference in the experience of the game >> just because people are krai craving competition, unscripted. people are really tired of reruns we don't think movie cinemas will open in the second half nor
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will there be tv production that will allow new content i think people will get sick of looking at this library product on netflix and hulu. it will be refreshing to have 7 proleagues will be competing >> which is a lot. you're right who do you think, which sports do you expect to be most popular. which companies will benefit the most as a result >> the largest the nfl 16 billion a year which eight billion is media rights. when you look at disney and viacom and fox by far their biggest payments come to the nfl and it starts on august 13th with the two new york teams i think that could be a really big driver of people reconnecting to the tv eco
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system just because it's going to start dominating the headlines all these match ups and games and i think that will on board a bunch of people into the tv eco system that were lapsed because there's no live sports on are now looking for something new that isn't news >> we were talking about video games and the incredible numbers. the demand and so forts. i do just wonder if there's a whole generation that grew up watching, playing video games that's not as interested in watching live sports think about nascar hit by the financial crisis and literally never recovered. they saw a bit of a bump but not much who is to say the nfl, the other major sports leagues aren't going to go the same way what's so say there will be this permanent level of societal interest >> there's too much money at
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stake. there's $47 billion of direct revenue that go to these sports. $46 of value and just roll over and play dead. no way nearly every league, the players share between 47% of total net revenue. these players aren't going to let that happen. these are competitive people they will try to on board those young men playing video games too. >> i'm hungry for sports to come back i'll watch a game. no fans. lots of fans i know kelly is a sports fans. wants it coming back too i wonder whether we'll get into a situation where we go from a dirts of sports products to a glove. this will be the first time ever
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when the nhl, nba, mlb, major league soccer, the nfl will be competing for mind share and eyeballs at the same time. >> totally great point i love it. once you subscribe, because you want to watch your core product like let's say you're an mls fan. it's easy to turn the channel and start dabbling in nascar which is starting or the nba which is starting. these things are seasoned. you could sort of subscribe for a certain number of weeks or months for the season and you stopwatching now it's going to be super easy to sample all these competitive game set which is will be better for the sports in the end. >> it's great do have you. thank you so much. we hope you're right ty still ahead, the airlines most lly higher today. the stock is down 50%.
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the traders will tell you what to watch a new report says one-third of new york city small businesses could shutdown because of the coronavirus tilman is here with a message for governor cmo reow lchs xtuo - [narrator] this is kate.
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that's no good. so kate downloaded the goodrx app. now she can compare prescription prices, to find the best discounts. she even beats her insurance price. good for you kate, good for you. goodrx, stop paying too much for your prescriptions. download the free app today. welcome back, everybody. we have some breaking news out of washington. >> reporter: the senate banking committee has voted on party line 13-12 to advance the nomination of judy shelton to serve on the federal reserve board. she's a controversial pick by
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president trump more than a year ago because she advocated a return to the gold standard and criticized the federal reserve's action and faced tough questions from the committee in recent months over whether she truly believe the federal reserve should remain an independent regulator. she has provided questions in writing according to the senate banking chair that she does believer in the fed's independence she does not advocate for a return to the gold standard and won the support of the committee and will advance to a full senate vote. that is judy shelton, the nominee to the federal reserve >> thank you very much now we go to seema mody. >> united airlines reporting earnings at the bell that will provide a fresh look at how the industry is fairing when air travel is softening as covid cases spike in some parts of the united states the trading nation team today is scott gordon
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bori, i know you're not fan of the airlines but is there something unite could say after the bell that would perhaps make you bit more optimistic? >> i don't think so. they are trying the best they can. they've had a big bump return back in passenger models but at this point, if you think about the airline business, 10% of travel is business travel. those have to travel are opting for fractional jets and other ways to transit because they are afraid of covid. what you're left with is the lowest common denominator. ais the whole airline business is going for the spirit airlines quality momentum given where you have to chase the lowest common denominator.
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southwest which never really has to rely on that business travel or paycheck. i just can't see how they can make up in volume what they are losing in profit margin going forward. >> it's a tough road ahead todd, you're taking broader approach what did you find? >> we're avoiding this space they have high fixed costs very little pricing power. boris mentioned jet blue we think delta is best in class. we do expect bankruptcies across the industry from covid. the work at home, stay at home environment will only exacerbate that we're struggleto hold that 15 dwlr support after the short kweez up to 22
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jets or airlines are moving lower at a faster rate than the s&p. they are scrambling to cut costs. they are likely to continue to burn through a significant amount of cash until this demand picks back up. warren buffet sold his entire position in u.s. airlines. for now we're staying away >> got it. thank you. for more trading nation head to our website. back to you. thank you. up next, it's power lunch's weekly special tilman tuesday he has some choice words for state and cities putting restaurant openings on hold. he joins us next
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♪ come on in, we're open. ♪ all we do is hand you the bag. simple. done. we adapt and we change.
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you know, you just figure it out. we've just been finding a way to keep on pushing. ♪
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new jersey and connecticut have added another ten states to their quarantine list. they also took off minnesota new additions include indiana, virginia and washington. there are now 31 states on the quarantine list. representative alexandria ocasio-cortez says that house republican ted yoho hurled verbal insults at her on the steps of the capitol she says he called her a quote
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he did not call her any names. texas republican roger williams was present but said he wasn't paying attention to the exchange he says that williams also insulted her you're up to date. that's the neez ws update. there's a reason for quotes. >> thank you with our news update let's check on the markets now. the dow has been the strongest all day. it's up 1% the it's up about two-thirds and the nasdaq is trying to turn positive. it was down about a percent earlier but only down a couple of points now. the oil market is closing up for the day. energy has been the strongest sector >> oil is settling in positive territory today. wti setting up 2.3%.
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closer to 2.5% for brent optimism over reopening especially in other countries has helped prospects for demand. the eu 750 billion dollar euro stimulus package is helping. aid could spur fuel demand and spending that's it. it's been a tough few weeks for oil. the last three day winning or losing streak was a month ago. we'll have to see if the gains are here to stay wti closing at its highest levels back to you. it's tuesday it's about 2:30. 2:32 in the east you know what time it is it's tilman tuesday time business has levelled off at down 50% in california by 60% and in new york, now down 70% where outdoor dining is less available welcome back in the notes you take issue. i have to say i have some
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sympathy with you here with the idea that politicians in new york, probably in new jersey, have not been forthcoming in telling you where the goal posts are. what will it take for you to be able to reopen sounds like an easy enough thing to do. what are the metrics so that you can plan ahead >> we love to complain about leadership on a national level and some state levels but nobody knows what to do everybody wants to blame d.c. right now. we're sitting here in new york and they can't even give us the metrics and say if the pandemic only has this much hospitalization for a 14-day rolling average or we only have this many cases on a 14-day rolling average then you can plan on opening your restaurants at 25 or 50% we get absolutely no information at all out of the state of new
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york and the city of new york. the city of new york is unbelievable that they will not give us a metric when we can open these restaurants >> yet they've moved to what they call phase four but absent there is the opening of indoor dining have you communicated with mayor de blasio or governor cuomo, person to person >> i have not. i doubt they want to hear from me right now >> maybe they should >> believe me, i've sent the message. think about it everything is a metric and everything is data points. we all want to blame everybody else and point everybody else for the data points and not making decisions wouldn't you look at just three or four or five key data points and say as soon as we hit these data points you're going to open what is so difficult about that. when we hear about the great leadership of new york and up
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east and new jersey while we're treating the rest of the country like their from other countries that they are quarantining us, we can't visit up there. it's ridiculous right now. yet they won't give us business points to operate and data points to operate. new jersey, you still can't have a drink of water at a casino until you're dehydrating and about to pass out. it's extremely comical to me >> the original casino properties are doing better on the gambling side. what is your strongest state and why? >> well, all the regional c casinos are doing well take out new jersey. i hate to say this but you have to remember regional casino, the reason they are doing so much ebitda is people are moving
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around you don't have the union wages in the regional casinos. they are not opening their buffets an full service restaurants. you're able to really watch your cost in a regional casino that you can't in vegas or in new jersey where you have the high union wages. it's tremendously helping us all but we are doing, believe it or not, 100% of the same gaming revenue and the regional casinos where in vegas you're doing a little below 50% in atlantic city, you're doing about 40% regional is where you want to be right now. >> i just want to tie off the idea i was told that missouri is one of your stronger states. is that true and why >> it's real simple. this comes back to the whole rift right now between retail tenants an restaurant tenants and the landlords. the state of missouri is one of the few states that lets us open
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100% of the occupancy of the restaurants as long as we keep six foot distancing which we 100% do and abide by and therefore because you're able to open the establishment and can seat your seats and be careful, that's why you're running the best same store sales comps in that particular market right now. until we fix this occupancy problem, even though you're open, how do you pay full rent how do you pay a mortgage when you're only operating, you have 25% and 50%. to all you judges out there, this is taking by the state and the government when you take 50% of my occupancy. >> tilman, what's going on with disney where you have some property, they have reopened but how is the traffic how is numbers there >> i look at my own numbers and i read a bunch of articles in the last couple of days hoping i was going to see something better than we're seeing
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we're down 70% in orlando. we have some of the biggest stores in disney they are coming out now and saying it. the traffic is just not there. i give disney a lot of credit for going out and putting great protocols in to protect their guests they were only going to let 20% of the parks occupancy to come in i don't think they're doing 20%. this is a problem all over america right now. you can't even do the business even though they are only operating at 20% i'm in the speaking for disney, but i know my restaurants aren't doing 20% down there right now we usually do a lot more than than the parks do when it comes to percentages >> that's super interesting.
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i want to ask about whether people talking about more or less government help for businesses hurt by the pandemic. take a listen. >> i don't want the government to problem up zombie companies anymore. stop doing that. let the market be the market figure it out. a new america will emerge in 36 months it's going to be more profitable what we're about to do with this next round of stimulus, in my view, could be a mistake if a company has to die because the world has changed permanently, let it die. let something else replace it. >> i'm curious with your restaurant some of the hardest hit, what's your reaction to that >> well, i haven't gotten any government stimulus. i'm on both sides of it. i could easily, easily take his position on this then we have to treat everybody the same are we propping up companies that were going out of business
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any way? yes, we are. if you don't want to give it to the businesses, that's fine. i'm okay with that even though i could surely use me some new stimulus right now the one thing that you've got to do because before i was saying you could not get people back to work because we have been shut back down to 25 and 50% occupancy or just patios in your big markets like california and new york, the $600 goes away, you'll have a real problem out there in america. we don't have a problem getting people back to work anymore. you won't see these jobs come back again i hope that congress lets the $600 a week keep going that is part of our stimulus for the delivery to go and spend money. when you shut down the faucet, you're going to see what's holding this country up right now is stimulus.
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if you want to see, i love what he said but you're only this far away from true anarchy in the streets when people can't eat and not getting that $600 a way. >> and can't pay that rent and that ripples through to the landlords, mortgage holders and banks. we're not out of the woods yet economically nor in term of the medical crisis >> it would truly create a real depression >> it's a perilous time in many ways let me turn to the nba a week or so ago you brought a lawsuit on behalf of the rockets. ti tell me who you're suing, why and what the motivation is >> i would love to give you a lot of details but i don't have a lot of details on it this is something that was brought to me by my litigation department you know in texas we have some
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of the best plaintiffs lawyers in the united states a lot of them have sued me before it's nice to be on the other side it's got to be pandemic business interruption they said this is why you have a case all i can do is listen to the lawyers and i don't think they put a lot of time into it if they didn't feel really strongly about it it seems as though the bubble is holding so far i got a text message from a friend of mine, former nba player ask tilman what happens when the bubble gets pierced because these guys have very active and vigorous social lives. i think you know what i'm talking about. >> well, what's amazing is when
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all the 350 tests came out yesterday for everybody in the bubble, not one test -- >> amazing >> somebody is going to have to put a big hole in this bubble because i have so much admiration for players understanding the importance of this and the great protocols that the nba put into place. are we going to get some cases, for sure we're going to get some cases. i'm truly starting to think this bubble is not going to bust. let's just watch it. every couple of weeks we can get by, there's a chance of the bubble never busting >> thank you so much great to see you great to talk with you kelly. still ahead, it's today's
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vo: visit reputationdefender.com or call 1-877-866-8555. plap. welcome back time for today's power movers. we'll begin with foot locker the channel check shows footwear is benefitting from more consumers working out at home. triumph bankcorp surging more than 16% they noticed deposits were a bright spot. the dallas based bank having a rough year still down 30%
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ebay shares are down a little under 4% as the company announces the sale of classified business democrats call for states like new york to hike taxes on billionaires the governor says that could do more harm than good. that story is next
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welcome back a fast growing grun of democrats is pushing for states with big cities to tax their billionaire residence. some argue this will just drive them out robert frank has more. >> 118 billionaires in new york with a combined net worth of over $600 billion. so new york lawmakers proposing a tax on those fortunes to help pay for covid-19 now this will be a mark to market capital gains tax state residence with a billion or more in assets pay 8.8% tax on any asset values during the year even if they did not sell the assets so if julia coke's stake grew by $2 billion, they would pay a $175 million tax now aoc joining the campaign telling governor cuomo that billionaires should fund a new unemployment plan for the hardest hit new yorkers. governor cuomo saying wealthy
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new yorkers will just leave if they're taxed more instead, he wants a federal tax hike on the wealthy. jeff bezos attdded $13 billion his net worth yesterday. elon musk added $6 billion he is now up $47 billion for the year a lot of talk leading into the november elections probably about taxing the wealthy to pay for the rising government costs. >> what assets would get measured under such a plan, robert that could be an amazing tanning snl art? real estate? tangible property? >> everything. your cars, art, boats, planes, everything and to your point, so much of that is not liquid >> good luck with that st. >> you talk about big private company that, is tough you talk about bloomberg or coke industries and cars as, art, it
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will be easy to game for the wealthy taxpayers. >> that's what i was thinking. you took the words out of my mouth. problems i don't have to ponder, robert. >> not yet, tyler. some day >> problems i don't need to worry about, robert frank. thank you very much. up next, one analyst taking a bird's-eye view on twitter why he thinks the stock could be about to fly higher. don't forget, you can always watch, always, always watch or listen to us live on the go, on the app, cnbc. we'll be right back. how does the world reopen for business? to return to the workplace, safely, companies will need the right tools. that's why salesforce created work.com it's an all-new suite of apps, expertise, and services. to manage this crisis today, and thrive tomorrow. everything companies need to return to the workplace. let's reopen. safely.
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welcome back shares of twitter are up 25% in the month of july alone, our next guest says the stock is set to fly more after earning this is week. joining us is the co-head of internet research with evercore isi. what is behind the gain? >> well, i think there's been across the internet advertising
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landscape an appreciation of the fact that digital and revenue is far less cyclical than many investors feared so what we're seeing now is basically the stock is repricing to that reality. when we think through what we see with facebook and google and snap is they benefited from strong e-commerce. twitter hasn't done that it lagged some what. we think heading into this week's earnings, they're able to tell a story around the fact that as we'reheading into july demand from their advertising base which is largely the big brand advertisers is demonstrating some improvement and by way of that we think it will be the outperformer of the group this earnings season >> so we should note, second quarter results before the opening bell on thursday you're also looking for pretty nice increase in user growth talk about that. how important is that versus some of the more financial metrics.
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>> right if we think about long term oriented investors, what they're really focused on is the strategic value of twitter as a platform and the fact it is very hard to replicate the service that it provides and, you know, part and parcel to that is increasing user growth we're thinking that users will grow near 30% which will be i think a record going all the way back to, you know, the early days of twitter as a public company. you know, there is clearly demand for the concept that twitter has. the conversation happening there is only building we think investor will take that to heart, appreciate it and be the margin alibiers of shares here at the end of the week. >> so let's talk -- just to be clear yushgs raising the target of $38 from $32:what do what does that mean for the rest of the internet space? >> if we're talking snap chat which goes tonight after the close, facebook and google are a week later, you know, the key point here is, you know, these
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businesses have been largely unaffected in so far as they provided a foundation or a floor for the names. and, you know, i don't know if there is a lot to read through off twitter. it is always a camp of its own again, the trends look positive with respect to users. we think they'll have a good second derivative story to tell as we head into july and the third quarter and that is really the basis for the call here >> so let me ask a little bit about what it means a tactical outperform does that mean that this is a short term buy and hold? and expect to trade it i ask that in the context of you raising the price target to $38 and stock is at $37. that would suggest very little upside tactical outperform and $37 shy of the $38 price target. >> this is really one about
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duration, right? it is around earnings with the specific catalyst in mind with a specific time frame in mind. i think we're, you know, the concerns we have about twitter long term really relate to infrastructure, technological architecture and things, decision that's have been made five, ten years ago. they're trying but we think longer term investors probably don't appreciate the magnitude of the cost perhaps associated with addressing those issues. they talked about tech debt before we think the sort of magnitude of that tech debt is one that, you know, again over a sort of two year period might prevent shares from outperforming. >> kevin, facebook anticipate google are only up 18% this year real quickly, you think they have that much upside?
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quickly? >> probably not that much. we're talking about cloud demand very important, very profound structural tail winds. there are second derivative read throughs there but not as impactful as what amazon is seeing >> kevin, thank you. tyler, thanks. >> have to leave it there. "closing bell" starts right now. >> it welcome to the closing bell, everybody. the nasdaq takes a breather. a new intraday record earlier close to the open. let's have a look at what is driving the action this afternoon. corporate earnings from ibm and
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coca-cola. highlighting that negative covid-19 impact but coming in better tha

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