the s&p 500 snapped three week winning streaks last week. in the days ahead, earnings and more earnings. the fed meeting and the stimulus debate treasury secretary says the gop is ready with it's next coronavirus relief bill. plus gold doing something it hasn't done in nearly a decade we'll talk about what this could signal squawk box begins right now. >> good morning, welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc. great to see you has the day off and i think that we'll see her later this week. meantime, u.s. equity futures at this hour.

pointing upward the wall street journal is calling the last four months a melt up and that's what it looks like. dow up by 83 points. s&p 500 looking to open 12 points higher. treasury yields as well. we're at .572. there's a mix of what they're thinking and what the equity markets think, right >> melissa -- okay we have a -- we will work on the audio and hopefully get that a busy week ahead. a two-day fed meeting with a policy announcement. no major change is expected. that will tell you that but investors will watch for clues about what the central bank might do next and then on the corporate front earnings season kicks into overdrive

167 of the s&p 500 companies will report. we'll hear from 12 dow components and among the names likely to get a lot of attention, apple, amazon, boeing, mcdonald's, 3-m, exxon and many others. this is if you like earnings, if you're excited by earnings this is going to be a big week. so far this season we heard from 128 of the s&p 500 companies so we'll more than double that 81% beat analyst expectations but as you would expect they have fallen more than 30% from the same quarter a year ago. the other big item to watch this week, the stimulus debate. treasury secretary mnuchin says republicans plan to introduce the latest piece of coronavirus relief it's worth about $1 trillion where they are right now it's expected to include another round of $1,200 stimulus checks

for americans. if the legislation will modify the federal unemployment insurance supplement to include about 70%. this will be in place of the $600 recipients and other items in the package include that liability protection also for businesses and for schools. andrew, are you hung over? >> oh, do you know what, i actually, we might have a video of it. i don't know if i can get it to everybody. i'm not hung over but we did -- i did get to enjoy that tequila and aparptparently it's a famous brand andit's escaping me. >> it's famous i actually had a conversation with penelope about it and we both said there's no way you bought that. someone sent it to you

it was given as a gift. >> it's not mine. >> i didn't know what it was. >> and you can't melissa it was pretty sad not that you're not a big drinker but he was trying to ring the bell. >> trying to ring the bell with his hands and you need to use a spoon or a fork or something >> i don't have a spoon. >> it was a beautiful vessel >> it was. >> what about the shot what about the shot that you poured which was probably worth about $20. what happened with that? >> i drank it. no, i drank it later friday night i drank it. >> that's awesome. that is -- you missed it melissa. you weren't here for national tequila day. >> but i saw it. i saw every second of that. >> it was fun. people liked it. they were retweeting it and stuff like that. anyway, some reason a little bit of a reason to celebrate maybe

this morning, especially if you're gold. do you remember our jim grant interview? we had jim grant on and i asked him this question about given the fed, given this, given that, given all of these things happening in sectors and stocks and here and there and i said what do you think -- what should we do? and he said buy gold and silver and all i did because i asked him this big long question, i barely chuckled because obviously with central banks doing what they're doing that seemed like an obvious answer and people are saying you mocked him. you mocked him i did not mock him i love jim grant i agree with everything he says. anyway, i wanted to get on the record of saying that. these people when they're looking for a target, melissa, whether it's like if you say anything about tesla either long or short, you know, either side, going absolutely nuts on you and it's like don't -- you don't need a target all the time for

your stupid trolling twitter hate speech constantly. >> there's certain assets, there's certain assets out there that just evoke that response. >> gold is one. >> apple way back when tesla. gold moderna. >> no way i'm going to be nice to him and pretend he's like an honest guy no way i'm just going to name him today. because people go crazy -- i'm kidding. he seems very reasonable when he talks. >> right. >> the science makes a lot of sense instead of using in a virus. i know they don't have a product yet. i know that they have the regular stock sales. i understand all of that but why do they hate moderna they're so mad about tesla at this point that they're short of 200. i don't know if any of them have any money left but now they're mad at moderna and they don't want a vaccine they don't get to me at all.

i'm not sensitive. >> anyway, no. not at all >> no. >> not like an orchid. >> you know that i did very well with betting on baseball so i'm not unhappy about that and i loved it i loved watching all the games sports is back i want to send in, we're going to send in our pictures. our cardboard cut outs to be behind home plate. >> in the background. >> in the background. >> meantime, there's another sport, i don't know if it's a sport to watch or not but it's a big event to watch this week the tech ceos going to be appearing before the house antitrust subcommittee wednesday. i'm sure that they'd feel like this whole thing is sport or that the congressmen are going to be treating them like sport amazon's tim cook, facebook's mark zuckerberg and google, they will all testify this will be the first time they appear

before congress. you might recall that they were going to meet today but that was rescheduled to wednesday due to some of the memorial events around lewis's death. so melissa. >> in corporate headlines this morning, moderna secured up to $472 million for its efforts in treating covid-19. it will go toward late stage clinical development moderna shares are up 300% in premarket trade adding 7.25% we'll talk more about this in a few minutes and don't miss our interview at 7:30 a.m. eastern time on squawk box s&p plans to spin off it's cloud software business.

we'll continue to hold the stake after the ipo. >> in geo political news, it's closed it's consulate in china shutdown the chinese consulate in houston and eunice joins us with the latest you've had all weekend to think about this big time insight analysis and tell us what exactly is happening and again you'll probably only be telling us. >> that's right. so over the weekend there's a lot of color i don't know if it's necessarily optimistic but there were people outside of the consulate waving chinese flags, taking selfies. there's a great police presence

around the consulate moving trucks and diplomatic plated cars left the compound and of course today was particularly sad for it at the consulate. it was the last time they were lowered at dawn and the staff had 72 hours to vacate the premises this was a legitimate and necessary response to this it was also interesting today is that state media was playing video of black plastic bags and what he described as shredded paper on the u.s.consultate

grounds and it seems to be suggesting that the way americans were reacting was similar to chinese officials burning documents in open trash bins in houston. one way they're trying to stress that they're different, they're saying yes they have taken over the consulate but one way in which they're different is that they went through the front door where as the americans forced themselves through the back door in what the foreign ministry has described as burglary. so the messaging that we're hearing that's being sent to the public is that the chinese are taking a higher ground compared to the americans >> yeah. all right. unbelievable, eunice. >> i could give you some optimism i know that you're always a

little worried about where this relationship is going just as i am but two things also happened over the weekend one was that the justice department said that the chinese researcher who they suspect fudged her association with the military to get a u.s.visa, she is now in custody so that suggests that the chinese are working with the americans at least on that case and also the phase one trade deal that we have been talking about for way too long actually dictates that the top trade negotiators have to have a discussion six months from the start of the trade deal so that means august so that means at least we'll have the two sides forced to speak to each other. it's better than not speaking at all. >> it seems like it could be worse. given pompeo's speech i'm

surprised that they haven't reacted more strongly to that to some extent. you know, it's like, hey, hold on. >> he'spublic enemy number one >> there's no punitive retaliation but right now they're looking for the consulate move and they're moving on the consulate. you don't see a stronger reaction because at the end of the day i don't think that the chinese want this to escalate to the point where there is no other choice but war and so they're being very careful about every next step. >> all right thanks eunice. great to see you >> okay. when we come back after the short break, he is going to join us to walk us through everything taking place over the weekend

and talk about today's big coronavirus headlines. but first, prices surging to a record high amid covid worries today's jump passing the previous record high set in september of 2011. stay tuned you're watching squawk box on cnbc this selenite grey is so pretty isn't it? wow. jim could you pop the hood for us? there she is. -turbocharged, right? yes it is. jim, could you uh kick the tires? oh yes. can you change the color inside the car? oh sure. how about blue? that's more cyan but. jump in the back seat, jim. act like my kids. how much longer? -exactly how they sound. it's got massaging seats too, right? oh yeahhhhh. -oh yeahhhhh. visit the mercedes-benz summer event or shop online at participating dealers. get 0% apr financing up to 36 months on select new and certified pre-owned models. now you can trade stocks and etfs for any amount you choose instead of buying by the share. all with no commissions.

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this is the oil markets. we're looking at a positive open as cross the board s&p 500 looking to add about 12 at the open. this is the calm before the storm though one third of s&p 500 companies are due to report earnings this week including apple, amazon, google and alphabet all on one day on thursday. meantime getting to oil the energy industry is watching over the weekend. hurricane hanna made landfall and then weakened and moved further inland the national weather service warning that even in it's weakened state it dumps 18 inches of rain through the region today texas governor greg abbott issuing disaster declarations for 32 counties in the storms path they have not evacuated workers

or shutdown production because of hanna oil right now is slightly on wti down a third of a percent. >> in coronavirus news, florida surpassed new york now with nearly 425,000 covid cases the state seeing more than 9,300 new cases and 77 deaths. meantime the federal government is testing czar says that virus test results are taking too long some states expressing concerns about backlogs joining us to talk all about is this is the former fda commissioner and cnbc contributor on the boards of pfizer and lumina. why don't we start with that idea it does feel like we're not

doing enough stock piling. there's a reason that there's not stock piling on testing or on everything else because people think that somehow there's going to be a vaccine in four or five months from now there's not going to be a need for it it seems to me that there's going to be a need for all of this stuff potentially for years. >> what we need in terms of the equipment is we just got a late start. there's no supply. there's global demand now for the products and the u.s. isn't the only country trying to get more testing equipment, more reagents, more swabs, so we're pulling on a global supply chain that's scarce and we don't have enough for this country. that's the bottom line the idea of the op ed is that we really should build a reserve capacity of these items. what we should do is probably pay the big clinical labs, companies like bio reference labs additional money to maintain excess capacity so if

there is a public health emergency you have some surge capacity in these laps they have been built for efficiency we need to build them in the future for resiliency and capacity we have done that in the drug space. there's certain critical drugs that we know that we would need in a national security crisis. we haven't done that with diagnostic testing and we need to. >> let me ask you about the testing. they have been seeing different opportunities come their way and investing in these things. there is a few you might have used the word moth ball at some point. if you built out a lot of testing capacity right now you ultimately have to moth ball it. i've seen a raging debate about that this idea that sure if a vaccine

comes and there's a therapudic and everybody is better 12 months from now you have to moth ball it but i also heard views from doctors and others that say we're going to be living with some form of coronavirus for years. hopefully not in the same way that we are today because we'll have the drugs and features because testing is something that we could be doing all the time for a long time. >> i think that's right. going forward. we're going to be testing for covid-19 we'll still be testing for it. what we'll be doing is using point of care and so the i.d. now and the systems that are currently used to screen for flu testing in doctors offices are probably going to be used for covid testing. was the acute fear around this

virus and morbidity taken away and perhaps other therapeutics that's typically not reimbursed outside of certain settings and if they were to step in and say we're going to reimburse broadly for asymptomatic screening testing that will create a natural market for the kinds of technologies that you're talking about. more point of care technologies and technologies that could be sent directly to patients to screen them on a routine basis for covid. if we want to see this get into the market quickly we'll have to pay for it it will be a small investment to make to get in control over this epidemic over the next 6 to 12 months. >> what do you think the cost is how much money do you think you should spend on this >> the cost of goods for pcr based testing is probably less than $40 if you're doing it to scale. the actual cost of the test

itself we're talking about millions of dollars, not tens of millions of dollars to get much more testing into the market with point of care tests medicare right now is reimbursing for example for testing anyone that comes in to rule them out for covid on the presumption that number one, people do worse post procedure and post surgical procedure. there's some data suggests that not very reliable data but some data to suggest that and also to make sure that you don't bring infection into the hospital based on the resumption that it helps reduce the risk that the infection would get spread in the hospital so they are paying for routine screening. that's one sort of setting where it's being done. you can broaden that look there's businesses that can pay for this right now major league baseball. the white house is doing routine asymptomatic screening some businesses are paying for it but a lot of businesses don't have that margin don't have enough money to do this but have a lot of at risk employees.

think of public transportation or grocery stores can't pay for this screening yet these are the venues that should be doing it. >> scott in texas and florida, there seem to be, we were talking about the plateau last week, is that continuing saturday and sunday? >> it is i think arizona looks like they're doing the best interms of starting to peak. texas is suggestive of that. a little less so than florida. it's unclear there's been spotty reporting on hospital data since the cdc changed the reporting departments. it was turning the corner and arizona looks like they're starting to come down slowly these are going to be egs tenxt

platea plateaus other states look like they're heating up and they'll start to offset the gains we're making in the sunbelt. >> it's crazy in new york. if you go to anywhere, you're supposed to come back and not poke your head out of your house for 14 days. when would you take a state off? they keep adding them on when would you take a state off of that list for people coming back to new york,for example they cast a pretty wide net. there's about ten states with the positivity level which is really an indication that they have out of control spread that they really don't have the epidemics contained so i would use that as a hard metric.

they don't have a lot of new cases. they look like they're heading toward a wider epidemic. >> i wanted to ask you about a vaccine. the ceo is on this morning of course receiving $472 million to accelerate the phase three trial of the covid vaccine i was wondering if you will take the vaccine in the first batch given the compressed time line of all of these clinical studies, not knowing what they are and not knowing the efficacy in terms of how long it will protect you and to what degree rjs i'm on the board of pfizer which is also developing a vaccine. if that vaccine comes through the regulatory process and gets regulatory clearance and is indicated for me, i would feel confident taking the vaccine

it's indicated for me. a lot of these vaccines might be authorized first as someone that is older for first responders, for other kinds of populations but i have confidence these are going to go through a pretty rigorous process i didn't fully understand the announcement in the press release that you referenced. moderna is using the money they're getting to expand the size of the clinical trial but i thought already that trial was going to be a 30,000 patient trial. i thought that that with you mentioned somewhere. there had been public statements around trials that size so perhaps moderna was needing to do a smaller trial and expanding it it was a little unclear in that regard. >> we'll try to get some answers on that but back to the vaccine if you did take that vaccine would that change your behavior when you go out in public. the market is reacting as if all the vaccine news once you get a vaccine on the market, people's behaviors will change and the

light switch will flip and they'll go to baseball games et cetera, and resume life as normal. >> you still need to be cautious for a period of time they're not going to prevent you from getting the infection 100% and there's still going to be people that break through and get disease even though they have been vaccinated like they see with the flu vaccine each year so therapeutics are still going to be important. it's going to build consumer confidence the combination of the fact that a lot of people have the infection by the time we get to a vaccine that there will be therapeutics on the market one or more will be on the market to rescue people and they'll have a big impact and then you layer on top of that a vaccine that's going to further reduce the risk. you're going to get to a place where people are going to be

more confident that if they do get sick with covid they're not going to have a bad outcome. we haven't introduced any new drugs. it was an old drug on the shelf so we'll continue to make gains all through the fall and the winter as long as we can keep this relatively under control and the health care system doesn't get overwhelmed. >> hey, doctor, before you go, i wanted to get your thoughts i don't know if you saw that around the front page of the new york times over the weekend. about now i guess over a billion dollars of insider sales among the vaccine makers and executors and management teams how concerned are you about that >> i'm not concerned about it from the standpoint. i wouldn't be trading in my stock right now in this kind of

environment but, you know, people have the right to do it and a lot of these are preplanned sales as you know so you can make an argument and putting one in place if you have this set up you probably might not be appropriate to change it now i'm not concerned about it in terms of what it signals the authorities will look into it >> okay. always great to get your insider perspective and look forward to seeing you i hope tomorrow thanks so much. >> thanks a lot. >> coming up, shares of european travel stocks trading lower this morning including ryan air phil will join us with that story next when we started carvana, they told us

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in global coronavirus headlines this morning, the u.k., the government there announcing that it's going to force people arriving from spain. the change comes after spain reports a rise in covid cases especially in the northeast region of catalonia. european travel stocks falling

on the news and phil joins us now with what ryan air is saying this morning is it the great ceo that says things that you always wait around to hear because we just can't -- >> he never disappoints. >> no, he doesn't. >> there's earnings calls that you go all right i'm going to yawn a little bit and there's earnings calls where you say get the popcorn. michael o'leary has something to say and he called it a badly managed overreaction by the way, that call just wrapped up and a good chunk of it he talked about the impact of the quarantines. not only did he say the u.k. quarantine is a badly managed reaction >> the challenge is not only for ryan air but really for all the airlines is if these quarantines continue it essentially locks down inner country service within europe. it's not a good move at this point from their perspective not the you be approximate lick

health perspective it's a completely different story. a couple of other notes. he said that he was asked a number of questions about the 737 max and he said that they are talking with boeing about compensation and repricing of the max. also that they expect to receive their first max by the end of the year and potentially up to 40 by next summer. so when you look at the max, he says that he would not be surprised that it may be delayed by regulators outside of the united states and he is, as i mentioned, worried about the impact of the 14 day quarantine. speaking of boeing, don't forget they're ahead of their earnings on wednesday they're going to be delaying the roll out

he was asked about subsidies we're going to subsidize our airline. it's going to be more causalities in the airline industries in the words of michael o'leary. >> maybe a bunch of babies with hammers in a china shop. that would be bad. >> oh, yeah. >> that's a good one white sox or cubs for you in general. >> more of a white sox fan but i enjoy watching the cubs too. it was great having baseball on the north and the south side. >> did you not notice that i probably saw ten games 10 to 12 games and you know what, mlb extra innings is free until the 31st. >> you knew that >> you had to take advantage of that. >> my wife knows it too because i'm staying up late. >> what are you doing? controversial. >> the reds have no offense again.

again, again >> and joe and yet they're picked to do well. >> i watched them. i watched them and it was agonizing and do you know who they play today? cubbies. >> oh. the cubs nice. >> white sox had a rough day yesterday. cubs had a good day. anyway, thank you. i loved it i really did love watching it and i'm back i don't think that i watched in ten years a game that i didn't care about and i was watching it i liked that baseball is back baseball is definitely back. see you later. >> coming up earnings reports the fed meeting a stimulus debate we'll talk about the big issues most liky elto impact the markets this week. squawk box comes right back. as business moves forward, we're all changing the way things get done. like how we redefine collaboration...

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welcome back to squawk box it's a big week for economic data reports and joining us now is the income strategist at the center for financial research and the global market strategist at jp morgan asset management. great to have you with us. we have gold hitting an all time high we have the ten year yield at .57%. we have the dollar index at 18 month lows s&p 500. 5% off the record highs. what do you make of the market action right now >> so you know, i think that it's important to take a step back and realize that one things have moved pretty far pretty fast two a lot of this has been driven by the policy response and there's now some questions coming in to play around what continued policy supports are

going forward and you do have concern in the technology sectors and i think markets going back here is really just more consolidation arguably what's most interesting from our vantage point is not only what it's doing to precious medal prices and commodity prices but more broadly what that signals about the state of the global economy a weaker dollar would be extremely inflationary and helpful at this juncture bringing the global economy more broadly online so it would be a bit of a headwind that could help a more broadly based recovery materialize and put the global economy on a healthy trajectory >> they're betting on further weakness in the dollar when you take a look at the positioning and then you have treasury

yields doing what they are doing. what do you anticipate i hate to ask this question but how low do you think yields could go given the backdrop of fed stimulus you have negative yields in the united states and very low nominal yields and since precious medals are often financed and have a storage cost when you reduce that cost to near zero or push it in real terms into negative territory it enhances the values of those assets it's not terribly surprises that gold has been on a run to the upside here for quite sometime what does that mean for yields obviously the fed told us that they're going to keep short-term interest rates near zero for as long as it takes to get inflation back.

we are going to get a report this week as well. are you anticipating rising bankruptcies and more distress perhaps among junk bonds. >> absolutely. >> we have already seen default rates in the high yield category jump up to over 7% we're expecting that to be 9 or 10% before this is all over. some of the facilities that the fed has put in place have helped but the lower rate is parts of the credit market and you know,

the very low rate adjust bonds, even the lower rate and investment rate bonds those could be downgraded further so you can see some losses there. our suggestion has been for quite sometime to stay in the higher tears in the credit market and we still see spreads coming down. we can see the markets reforming well as they have for quite sometime you need to stay in the higher credit quality bonds right now because we are still in the down side of this economic cycle and it's going to take some time for the economy to heal and not everybody is going to get support from the fed. >> we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much both of you, kathie and david. >> coming up, when we return, trouble for toys why hasboro is feeling the pressure this morning. we'll explain after the break. you're watching squawk box on cnbc

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quarterly earnings of 2 cents a share. that's well short of a 23 cent assessment they were impacted by store closures and product shortages >> we talk about that at my house all the time i love mulan 1 and mulan 2 i really did. >> there was a 1 and a 2 >> this is a live action i think we'll probably be similar to one did you see any of them? get ready. 7 months, 8 mosnths get ready. >> i have plenty of time to watch all of that later. >> got a lot of remedial work to

do a lot of it starts with a d as in disney. coming up, sorkin. the combo, man something that you love and something i love online gambling, man thr together >> yeah. they're excited. they're excited to you can about this a new one in the gambling sector they're going to talk to the ceo next when we started carvana, they told us

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online consumer and sports gambling rush street interactive, we know about that place in chicago, going public with dmy also known as blank check companies. investors put money into the spacs without knowing how the capital will be employed richard branson's virgin galactic and fellow sports betting company draft kings that i have a little experience with. shares of dmy, we'll take a look at that. upon closing, rush street will be a publicly listed company

under the ticker rsi joining us now is greg car land. co-founder and ceo of rush street interactive good time to do it given that mlb is back, greg. i'm excited about rush street because i like online gaming i might recuse myself because of draft kings and i do give them some business. i looked up in the last -- i've put on 24 bets in recent nights but then i looked it up, it's about six days so that's only four per day so i don't have a problem yet but i think baseball on thursday, the yankees/nationals, the biggest betting ever on a baseball game. so it's a good time for you to do this. >> it is we had a huge weekend with major league baseball starting i know you like draft kings. i'm hoping i'll convince you to try us as well

>> i know. you think you have a -- you claim to have a broader array of things to offer than draft kings but you're a fraction of the size, at least in terms of market cap even after the spac, 2 billion. draft kings is 13 billion or something. you've got a lot of growth perhaps ahead of you. >> we do, indeed if you look at our multiple to revenue, our enterprise revenue, we trade at a significant discount to draft kings based on be the stock price we're growing faster in the past four quarters we've seen growth of 55%. >> what are your plans where are you operating? i know pennsylvania. >> sure. >> tell me exactly what we can do on rush street, where you are right now and there's -- it has to do with some casinos in illinois, too? >> well, so we have two companies, rush street interactive which is our online gaming and rush street

we're in pennsylvania and new jersey, colorado, indiana and we'll be launching in michigan next year, virginia next year and we're also operating in columbia, in south america. >> across the board you have -- i'm not going to try those that's the last thing i need is to start playing black jack online. >> online casinos -- online casino is actually a bigger market and -- >> trouble i think that's trouble >> well, then you should stick to sports betting. >> i think i need to stick to -- the pent-up demand is -- has been apparent since last -- i mean, i bet on exhibition games, if you can believe that. the pent-up demand has been apparent since mlb got back in business what are the next big things coming

nba is going to be big. >> nba is starting on thursday is the plan. the nfl is starting, the training camps so we're excited for that we think the sports, big league sports ramping will be great for our business for sure. our company, we do more revenue on the casino side we've been less impacted by the shutdown. >> why spac it, greg >> that's a good question. when we decided to raise outside capital we considered a bunch of different options but when it came to making a decision at the end of the day, there were a few things that were important to us one, certainty of getting the deal closed. if you look at the ipo market back in april, we were starting to think about this, it was dicey. the ipo market is very cyclical. we thought this would be more certain. two, the sponsors that we connected with, nicola demasi, they've agreed to a subject of a lot of their shares to an earn out which aligns our interests better

we have a lot of transparency. our story is a growth story. looking to grow over 50% between this year and next year. we have more flexibility to talk about that with a spac process we're raising a pipe $160 million leading that. that actually makes the transaction cheaper for us so it's a good deal all around. >> i wish we had more time i was going to explain to you how a parlay works. >> i know how a parlay works you should stick to straight betting or in game betting. >> don't do parlay. >> no parlays. >> do an under or over with the team you like and figure out whether they're going to score a lot of runs and you get much bigger payoffs, greg >> actually, we've got a great parlay engine. you can make great teams and win 100,000 on a dollar bet. >> thanks. >> the ceo of moderna on the company's race to find a coronavirus vaccine.

stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

wall street bracing for one of the most critical weeks in months as stocks try to regain lost ground. senate republicans try to keep

the economy going. the race for moderna one step further ceo stephan bancel joins us. the stock surge comes to a halt we'll speak to the street's biggest bear who say the streets aren't as rosie as they appear the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and melissa lee who's with us once again becky is off today u.s. equities futures. we look like we're going to open up higher. dow 62 points higher nasdaq opening 93 points higher with the s&p 500 up about 12 points really maybe the story of the morning, check out gold right

now because prices surging to a record high amid covid worries in u.s./china tensions today's jump passing the previous record high set in september of 2011. what i can't figure out here is the balance. we have equities on the melt up. wall street journal talking about the four-month surge which we've had. on the other end, gold, maybe it's a hedge or is there something else going on here duh? those two reasons you gave were like, what we know why it's up, don't we? what are dollars worth anymore we're just getting started with currency debate around the world, aren't we >> dollar index is -- the dollar index is at an 18-month low. that's driving gold. >> on china tensions or covid, it's gone the other way with

covid. risk off, it didn't help i think this is about -- have you seen some of these editorials recently about what mnuchin is doing >> yeah. >> i read some over the weekend he's getting hammered. we're outgoing pelosi. he's been played by pelosi he thinks he's staying up to her by saying a trillion and a half, additional the people that are worried -- >> the delta. >> they're going nuts with what's happening then you have the fed on top of everything else. so it makes sense why we're seeing this. i didn't like those two reasons. i know they weren't yours, but i was thinking -- i think it's pretty clear what's going on here bitcoin, did you notice where that is today. >> 10,000. >> almost to 10,000 again. >> 10,200. >> it went over. >> it's over >> it's over 10.

>> ten three >> that did not turn into a noncorrelated asset during the selloff from covid, remember it went down 4,000 or something at one point. >> right >> melissa, i know one of your guys, brian, is big in that arena. all right. here we go this is it treasury secretary mnuchin announcing republicans had finalized a bill, about a trillion dollars but who's counting eamon javers oh, man, i like that whole look there, javers. that whole look is working for me, and i'm talking about the background, my friend. >> thanks, joe, i needed that on an monday morning. >> make you feel good about yourself >> thanks. i appreciate it. at least somebody is look, after this weekend of maneuvering and dealing and wheeling, we now have a sense of where this negotiation is going to start, right? because republicans are going to put out their plan later in the

day. we do know where the democrats are. they're looking for about $3 trillion that's what nancy pelosi has suggested. she said they've been ready to negotiate for over a month now republicans are putting out some of the details of what's in their plan hers here's what we know about what some officials said over the week end republicans are going to back an additional $1,200 to americans not clear which subset of americans will receive that payment though larry kudlow talking about that over the week end. liability protections for businesses and schools this is an important one for mitch mcconnell. clearly important for businesses who don't want to face lawsuits from employees and customers based on anything they did to try to reopen during the pandemic also, on unemployment, this is the big sticking one, right? that $600 unemployment bonus in the cares act, some republicans feel that is causing people to want to stay home rather than go

back to work because they can make more money, the argument goes, by staying home and going back to work and collecting a lower wage they want to see a 70% wage replacement on unemployment. that's likely to be a non-starter who like that $600 unemployment bonus we point out a lot of americans don't have a workplace to go back to. this isn't in their view incentive advising people to stay home rather than go back to work when the job simply isn't there. that's the starting point of the negotiation, joe we'll see over the course of this week where we end up and whether that unemployment benefit deadline is a real incentive here to get something done or whether this slides into early august, which is the expectation right now. andrew, back over to you. >> hey, eamon, thanks for that we continue this conversation. mick mulvaney is going to join us, omb director for the trump administration good morning to you, mick. thanks for joining us. we're all trying to sort through

what we actually think is politically practical, meaning what's actually going to get through in washington. what do you actually think we're going to see given the debate we're having >> i think eamon made some points now that the marker is down it created the environment between the trillion and the three. there is something eamon didn't mention that i have heard in washington which is the possibility of a smaller deal this week. keep in mind, congress is set to go on recess at the end of this week it is typical they'll rush to get something going on the time back in the basin. there are some big state primaries in august. so they really do want to get back and get stuff off of the table here in washington, d.c., so they can have the whole month of august. there may be some discussion this week about doing a smaller package this week and then doing something else right when they get back in the end of

september. what i've heard about is dealing with with a little bit of the unemployment, maybe a little bit of liability and leaving some until early september. >> we called it a slim deal f. it was a slim deal, what would that be worth? are we talking about half a trillion dollars, a trillion dollars? these are still big numbers. >> you lose track. i was doing the math in my head as you were running through the $1200 check per family or per person you could give that to 100 million people, which they're never going to do, that's still only $120 billion if i'm doing my math right. if you are spending $1 trillion there's a lot of other money left over. it's hard to think about what that will be in terms of dollars. what can they get done in terms of policy? everyone is focused on the extra bonus unemployment insurance the underlying unemployment insurance is not going away. this is on top of that

this is a federal kicker everyone is paying attention to this it runs out this week or last weekend depending how folks get their checks that's getting a lot of attention this week. it wouldn't surprise me if there was discussion about that. >> in certain rooms, places you have "the wall street journal" editorial, some of its members, they're kind of rolling their eyes at this whole process they think republicans and mnuchin and the administration have been played by the democra democrats. this is an unprecedented time. she thinks that pelosi softens him up with the 3 trillion and they feel like they're holding the line with 1.5 trillion when they're coming back. this is a lot of money is it absolutely essential to

deal with it >> it's an a found inning amount of money keep in mind the budget of the united states every single year is less than 1.5 trillion. we spend 4 trillion, most of that is medicaid the stuff we budget is 1.2, 1.3 trillion you're talking on the smaller scale is something that equals a year's wosrth of discretionary spending i've spent a lot of time in back rooms with steven. i don't think he's getting played i've seen him negotiate with pelosi and schumer i don't believe there's any chance he's getting played or manipulated here this is how washington reacts. this is where the center of gravity in washington is you have a recession going into an election year >> buying votes. >> buying votes going back and saying they're doing something that's what they want to say when we're campaigning >> hey, mick, this is the same question we asked the treasury secretary last week. what's the upper limit in your

mind in terms of the u.s. debt given where we are relative to gdp? meaning, how should investors think about it, public policy makers think about it, the public think about it? >> the academic research would tend to think it's somewhere around 80 and 100% of course when you talk about u.s. debt, you have to talk about total debtor just the debt to the public we've got that 3 or 4 extra trillion dollars in the social security trust fund and so forth. if you add it altogether, we're at 100% if not a little bit more the academic research indicates that's where you have a real drag on future economic health that's where the interest payments are larger and larger $30 trillion in debt, $600 billion a year on interest payments that's almost as much as we spend on defense i think you're there already the issue is this, is that no

one's ever done research on the reserve currency is it different here versus other countries? i don't think we know. the bottom line is, we're going to find out because that's where we're headed. >> the other question i wanted to ask you, we keep talking about the $600 payment and the issue that it relates to is whether we think we're going to have a permanent class of unemployed workers in this country. is that something you're concerned about? >> no. you always worry about that, right? that's sort of the history is when we invented the car, all the folks who took care of hovers horses are going to go out of business. that's never been the case you read some of the research, half of the jobs five years from now don't exist today. half of the jobs we do right now didn't exist 20 years ago. we are a dynamic economy, at least as long as we remain a dynamic economy i'm not concerned about the permanent

underclass if y if you want to get aid to people, is giving folks cash a better way to get them aid it's a much more efficient way to give them money and let them make their decisions about how to spend it instead of forcing them into a government program. >> the last time you were on we discussed an op ed you wrote about testing. one thing that's not in this bill is more testing can you explain just what the thought is around that we had dr. scott gottleib on talking about more testing, more resilience, more government money and that it effectively would pay for itself in terms of the economic growth if we could create the right confidence. >> i think scott's right on the economics. it would pay for itself. there's no money in this stimulus for testing is not right.

the numbers i've seen is it's someplace between 16 and 25 billion for new testing. the last proposal the republicans talked about was taking $16 billion of new money and matching it up with $9 billion from the previous c.a.r.e.s. act that has not been spent to get to a new $25 billion for the testing. you saw other interviews over the weekend. the administration recognizes while they've done a good job, you can do more. they have a testing czar who wasn't there when i was there. the goal was to get all testing down to under 24 hours there's a psychological intend and there's the psychology behind it. if people felt safer sending kids back to school, going back to work, things would turn around testing is a big part and the administration recognizes it. >> mick, we appreciate you

joining us look forward to talking to you soon meantime, i'm going to show it over to melissa. coming up, an update from executives in the harlem children's zone. help in covid relief that interview is next the ceo of moderna will join us to discuss new funding of the covid-19 vaccine efforts before we head to break, let's take a check on markets overall. looking at a higher open s&p at 10. "squawk box" will be right back. flexshares may look simple on the outside.

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switch and save hundreds. xfinity mobile. the pandemic has stalled and the corresponding business shutdown, the virus itself and the disproportionate numbers itself the harlem children's zone is raising $50 million. jeffrey cannon, president of harlem children's zone good to see you gentlemen again to update us quami, i've watched the ted speech it was easy for me to find

i searched quami and ted, it comes up immediately it's very compelling it encapsulates exactly what we're talking about. that is the answer that hcz figured out was cradle to career comprehensive action and this pandemic has thrown a serious obstacle into doing that but the answer and solution is the same thing, a comprehensive response to it. i urge people to watch the ted speech >> absolutely. good morning covid-19 is a multi-dimensional threat because it is multi-dimensional it requires a comprehensive response which is germane to who we are at the harlem children's zone we need to have strategies and approaches to address the need for emergency relief fund.

bridging the digital divide, the mental health impacts that's happening given the toxic stress and public health campaigns, reminding folks the importance to stay covered for each other the audacious opportunity was a fantastic opportunity. we are able to raise $26 million. a little bit about the audacious platform it has a social impact initiative when we first started on the ground in march when covid happened, we understood this would devastate black communities all across america to be able to have a national response from atlanta to minneapolis to oakland, it is critical that we marshall these resources for our community. >> jeff, we need to scale it and we need money to scale it. that's the thing you've proven with your tenure

we know how to do this. >> i'm so proud of what he's done as a national leader. this is about bending the curve. those are folks in the black and latinx community who are the most vulnerable.

>> we plan to save lives the pandemic exacerbated it. >> his mother got it he's living with his grandmother. he's going to miss learning. his mother gets out but has to quarantine they had to move to a shelter. that's repeated again and again and again. the same effects of inequality that we see there are exacerbated by this. there's an answer to it. i think the six pronged approach with five or six that you talk about, is the way we need to do it >> you hit it on the head. >> while covid is devastating

the community, we have to target this >> we're sharing information, best practices while there is an emphasis as it relates to deaths, there's significant impact ly be able to provide for my family and we believe we have the answers. for those asking for the answers, there is targeting the neighborhoods with comprehensive service. >> the tragedy, the horrific events that transpired, a lot of people to come on cnbc have committed a lot of money to

solve this we've actually had people come in and say, you know what, it's great to commit money. i don't know if they know how to spend it or where to spend it. how do you get the word out that the answer kind of is here with hcz. i don't know i just think a lot of that money that's been raised, you could certainly put it to good use >> if folks understood that we have these national partners, right, they're really sort of the top performers we found folks in detroit, in oakland, in minneapolis, in chicago who were actually doing the work on the ground trying to save lives and we need help and support and if folks want to figure out how to support communities of color during this dire time, they can simply help support this national effort to save lives and we stand on our data and our results.

we're clear we're about the numbers. we're about making sure that we reach the outcomes that we have listed and i think folks can have confidence that our partners will do the same thing across the country >> how many scholars you got in college now? the entire gap between white and black students, you've actually gotten it to zero at harlem children's zone. 2,000 kids in college? >> we have 1,000 student enrollment in college. it's close to i believe 7,000 students that we have been able to serve on multiple levels. at the harlem children's zone, we serve 13,000 students from the pipeline from birth all the way to college to ensure they can achieve their full potential. >> hopefully nobody falls through the cracks it's a lot of work, not easy you can't just flip a switch

this is updated and death rate and it's great to have you on. we appreciate it. >> pleasure. >> all right thank you. >> andrew? >> okay. coming up when we return, moderna stocks surging in the premarket after the government awarded the company another $472 million for coronavirus vaccine development. we're going to speak to the ceo right after the break about the race for a vaccine then tomorrow on "squawk box," don't miss bill gates. we'll get his take on the vaccine and the fight against coronavirus. stay tuned "squawk" returns right after this apps are used everywhere...

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still to come on "squawk box," moderna ceo stephan bancel the bear on wall street will join us to discuss why that isn't as good as seen. at the top of the hour we'll talk china tensions, the rise of coronavirus cases in florida which has surpassed new york senator rickco o sttf florida. "squawk box" will be right back. . you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. make ice. making ice. but you're not mad because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad get e*trade and start trading commission free today.

moderna securing another

$472 million from the government for covid-19 vaccine efforts meg tirrell joins us with moderna's ce oh. >> reporter: good morning. stephan bancel joins us. the first phase 3 trial of the united states. >> when will we see the data >> yes, good morning, meg. thank you for having us back indeed, it's a big day it's a first fades 3 of covid vaccine in the u.s we are planning to recruit as fast as possible we've been four, six, eight

weeks to get everybody recruited. then it will be a question of infection rates. because of all of the infection we are seeing in the u.s., in the south and the west, this actually should be helping the coronavirus vaccine development because it's an event phase 3. we have enough in the placebo to get it there. >> when are you modeling you might see enough events to get the data at this point >> we see october, maybe november if you look at the clinical trial, we have the most clinical sites in the u.s. between ppe sites should allow us to get good cover october is possible.

>> the fda has set a threshold of at least a 50% reduction of disease versus placebo where would you peg your probability of success at hitting that threshold and do you think it's possible that the vaccine could be more protected than 50% >> yes so at this stage it's still a lot of guessing, looking at the phase 1 data which as you know showed a four fold increase of neutralizing antibody in all of the participants we're eager to get the eligible data as we all know, it's a disease that is affecting the population

more if you look at the clinical work, food protection in those animals. we think there's a high probability, 75 plus, 80% maybe higher chance to get to the 50%. >> then could we see a much higher efficacy, i think it's possible i think we'll know more when we get the data, when we get the challenge model and then we get the phase 2 data the phase 2 has to be enrolled the safety data was critical and we've got the green light from the fda knowing the last couple of days that we were safe to proceed to a phase 3

we estimate we should get late august, september phase 2 neutralizing antibody. as good as we were in phase 1. then i think it just increased tremendously, the probability to get to the finish line. >> stephane, we've talked about the neutralizing antibodies. they seem to be similar among some of the vaccines being tested and they're good. we're also seeing not the b cell response but the t cell response, which could be even longer lasting and could be important and i'm just wondering your procedure and pfizer's procedure with the messenger rna and the spike protein. the add den know vi-- adeno virs vector can do that there's others that add

something, an adjuvant or something. do you think using the mrna is as effective in generating a t cell response as some of the competing vaccines can you tell >> sure. so we have some early data, joe. first shows a very good response which, as you know, is a type of t cell we show that in phase 1. i think more important for us is we are showing the animal model, not only for this vaccine but for others as well, protection and at the end of the day what we all care about is the vaccine providing protection so we have a good sense that we see the b cell and t cell. there's been quite the work done in sweden in term of what happens with the model t cell. we have a cancer vaccine if you remember at asco a year ago. we think we have both t cell and b cell to provide protection. >> two questions for you

first really is around the age group. the upper limit on this age group was 55 why was that chosen? just so we understand. obviously one of the things we need in a vaccine is able to protect people at older ages >> yes actually phase 1 was 18 to 55 which is typical for first phase one in vaccine we don't want to take any risk of safety for being early, but then we enrolled a cohort 55 to 17 and yet another cohort of 17 and above. the phase 3 which started this morning, there is going to be 18 to no limit of age and we have a requirement of at least 25% of people that are 65 and above in our study to make sure we have good safety. >> then separately what i did want to mention.

>> in the program we had asked dr. scott gottleib around some of the vaccine makers including your own dr. gottleib sits on the board of pfizer and i will lumina. here's what he said about stock sales during the pandemic. >> i wouldn't be trading in my stock right now in this kind of environment but, you know, people have the right to do it and a lot of these are pre-planned sales as you know. so you can make an argument that withdrawing the pre-planned sale would be as bad as putting one in place if you have one set up a long time ago, it might not be appropriate to change it now >> so i think the fairest question to ask is do you plan to sell anymore of your shares at this point? >> so what we have done is we've set up 10b5 plans. if you look at most of the team setup plans, you must remember, andrew, this was in december of 2018 obviously when we set up those

plans none of us had any idea what was going to happen in 2020 and as they said, they are very clear regulation by the fcc of when you can or cannot exchange those plans. we are in a blackout period. we're not allowed to amend or change the plans that would be against the very spirit of those plans. those plans were set up a long time ago and of course none of us had any idea the stock would be at these levels right now >> stephane, i wanted to continue along that line of questioning. it appears at least along the surface that this is a big pillar for the bear case on your stocks that executives have been aggressively selling $161 million for stocks in the year just in the first two weeks of july i went through the filings that you had with the sec there were five separate filings that sold more than 71,000 shares of moderna stock and at the average price that would be more than $4 million in sales in

just the first two weeks of july you say that this plan was put in place before but at the same time you believe that the best is yet to come, i would presume, for your company stock would you consider offsetting those sales with open market purchases then >> so thanks for the question. first, again, this is highly regulated. i could not place a new plan in place because we are in a lockout period i cannot stop a plan, stop a plan from selling the stock. i think if you look at the big picture, i have sold less than 1% of my holdings in the company since the company went public. i've been buying stock in every financing of the company when it was private. i'm the only investor in the world who has done so. i think for any investor who owns one of our stock, 99% of my

wealth is in this stock. it's going to remain like this the other thing people don't appreciate because you have to do a lot of work in the numbers is given my stock options that have been awarded by the board, i get new stock vesting every quarter. so if you do the math overall, my holding of moderna is not going down, actually in the january 1st to june 30th period for which i have the numbers it actually went up i own more stock of moderna on june 30th than i own on january 1st. >> just one final question related to this, and it might help clarify things. your founder and chairman, who also runs flagship ventures, sold $68 million of stock on may 21st on behalf of flag ship ventures obviously he is a board member of your company, therefore, he's an insider there was no scheduled plan in advance for that would you ask him not to sell

shares going forward. >> so, again, what i can tell you is that at the date when the stock trend happened, this was clear by the legal team and so this was a colleague to process. the stock in the company they have been with the company since 2010 this is ten years ago. as you know, funds have a time frame in which we have to liquidate and distribute shares to lps in the normal course of business, we have close to 20% ownership in the company this is not surprising that sometimes they have to distribute or sell stock. >> stephane, it's meg tirrell again. i want to ask you about an issue that was plaguing your shares

last week which was the patent battle with arbudis. moderna lost a battle with the delivery method. do you anticipate any delay here because of this patent battle? >> so first it is not a patent battle there is no court involved or anything like that some have been invalidated some have not. this is regarding very old technology on friday at the end of the day we issued a statement saying that we are confirming that there is no issue with 12 3 and the old patent i remind you that they have never donnie mrna drug

if you look at the patent you will see it's a very technical patent and we do not use this patent in 1273 >> okay. just the last question for you we haven't asked you about that new award from barda, $470 million to support the lead stage development. can you tell us what that funding is for and, you know, then also would there be separate funding to buy doses as we saw with the pfizer deal last week >> so, thanks, meg indeed, yesterday, we announced an extension we got $483 million award back in april but at the time our a sunls was that the phase 3 would be around 10,000 subjects. in the following weeks with the discussions with the fda and nyad, we said it should be more

in the 30,000 participant range. it's a much bigger budget so we have been discussing with barda and yesterday we finalized the contract for an additional $472 million. we fund the phase 2 and phase 3. this does not include purchasing of product as you can imagine, given the project, we talk to them a lot, sometimes two, three times a day. i cannot talk about things that have not been finalized. it is the desire of the u.s. government to buy the vaccine and inject those vaccines for anybody who will be, of course, interested to getting it for free when the vaccine happens. >> stephane, clear me up on the regular stocks did you say you are disallowed from canceling that plan

is that -- you're unable to say, look, i'm not going to do this because we're getting poor results. you're unable to do that by law? >> the company policy that has been set up when we went public, joe, you can't stop the 10b5 plan. >> company policy? >> company policy. >> thank you >> meg stephane, thank you so much for being with us. >> thank you >> great conversation. thank you, stephane, thank you, meg, for bringing that to us a check on what's moving in the pre-market and then is tesla stock running on borrowed time we're going to speak to a tesla bear, gordon johnson, about the results and why things he says may not be as good as they seem for the automaker. take a look at shares of tesla on this monday morning still over $1400 this morning we'll talk all

about it "squawk box" returns rig aer ishtft

some news, under armour in the premarket, the executive chairman kevin plank have received wells notices from the sec. that gives details on charges that it intends to bring related to a previously disclosed sec probe. we'll have much more on this story in just a bit. we'll also be tainlkg tesla after the break. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk. it's evident in good times, with decisions focused on the long-term. and crucial when circumstances become difficult.

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tesla shares, strong earning report before fighting a tech swoon ending down more than 6% the tax credits on the last earnings report demonstrate that tesla is running, he says, on borrowed time. gordon johnson, founder. this has been the critique the entire time. they're making profits on the tax credit but not on the automobiles themselves let me give you the other side of that, which is there's nothing wrong with it, nothing illegal and maybe you can argue

at least for the next several years, the other automakers get an act together selling these credits is a business model. >> two things. you look at their 1 2 10 q the jump in the massive regulatory general, the parties might not own the credits. that's number one. over the past 26 quarters, only 4 have they made a positive net income the most recent was 3q '19 fca said over the time frame of 2020 to 2023 they're going to recognize roughly 1.29 billion u.s. looks like tesla pulls forward assuming they're 90% assuming they're 90% of that

credit revenue, they're going to recognize over the next three or four years, they pull forward 60% of that. our point is it's not recurring and tesla is guiding their credit revenue down 48% in the second half this year versus the first half you're going to see a big decline in earnings this year and it gets worse next year. >> i think melissa has a question melissa? >> gordon, what makes the difference in a way? the company ended the quarter with $8.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents >> that's a great question think about this, right? if you look at bev, battery electric vehicles, from 2011 to 2019, the share in the u.s. went from .3% to 1.4% light truck sales went from 50%

to 70% the disruptive technology looks to be light trucks. they did more deliveries than they did in the second quarter despite a new factory model wise when people start to see the growth is slowing, we think it's a real problem but then it's going to become very evident in the third and fourth quarter we think the credit revenue is confusing people they're guiding that down. in 2021 we think it drops off. just on a net income basis but

on a free cash flow basis. >> gordon, what did you make of the interview with maureen dowd, elon musk and grimes together and then some of these tweets? does that factor into your bear case >> not at all. elon musk is a very eccentric guy. he's done a very good thing for electric vehicles. we've been going up with stock prices that's 99% of most people's thesis if you get past the stock price, what you try to do is find opportunities that are dislocated from reality. we think tesla is dislocated from reality europe, the fourth quarter of 2019 versus the second quarter of this year their market shares went from 33% to 11% moore way, 50% of prices from ev is paid for by the government, i.e.,, every major government maker, tesla's market shares went from 36% to 2%.

>> it's a longer debate. the bulls and bears aren't going away any time soon thank you so much for joining us this morning joe? thanks, andrew the gop poised to detail a plan. rick scott from florida when we return ( ♪ )

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it's an all-new suite of apps, expertise, and services. to manage this crisis today, and thrive tomorrow. everything companies need to return to the workplace. let's reopen. safely. >> gdp republicans expected to roll out a new proposal for government stimulus four days before key benefits expire. we'll speak with florida senator rick scott about the compressed time line and about the surging

coronavirus outbreak in his state. and gold notches a new all-time high the precious metal climbing towards that $2,000 mark as the dollar hits the weakest level in more than two years. final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and melissa lee. becky is off u.s. equity futures indicating off strong about 88 points or so on the dow s&p up 15. then treasury yields, sets us

up we have it all today, melissa. we have moderna, tesla shorts. >> you can get it, too >> twitter time line oh you have to ignore it for a little bit.

>> i vacillate. >> you're not sure >> not clear at all. >> here's the news here's the news. >> the company kicking off the first phase 3. numbering 30,000 people. moderna ceo joining us last hour on "squawk box." >> we think we should be evolving we've been four, six, atd weeks to get everybody recruited that is going to be a question of infection rates all of the infection we are seeing in the u.s. and this actually should be helping in

the vaccine development because it's an event phase 3. >> moderna says it's received $472 million in u.s. government assistance for development of the vaccine candidate. the ceo says the company could start seeing data in october or november joe? >> gop is suspected to unveil a $1 trillion stimulus today it's expected to include extended federal unemployment benefits at a lower level than people are seeing now as well as more direct payments to individuals and lie brilt protections for business that might face coronavirus related losses even if the plan is revealed, it will come just four days before those extra double unemployment benefits are due to expire joining us now, senator rick scott of florida this is contentious on all sides, senator i guess some people would say, look, it was 100 years since we had a pandemic and we don't have

a roadmap. a trillion dollars is a lot of money, people say you have to go "shock and awe" with the situation. does that help you feel better about spending the money, senator? >> no. i think you've got to target the money. you have to help the people that are unemployed you have to help make sure we have small businesses get open you have to get liability protection for first responders, schools, small businesses. and then you've got to be smart about the rest of it >> we have to understand it's a trillion dollars this is the beginning, the trillion dollars there's going to be a negotiation.

i don't have any idea how i spent the money, how much money i haven't spent that we've sent around all of these different places i think we have to be cautious liability protection is important. >> they all sound like they might be -- one thing might cancel out the other i don't know if you can do it that way, senator. you have democrats in congress are able to criticize the administration as fiddling while horrible things are happening and you can't even agree amongst yourselves all kinds of criticism being leveled at the trump administration then you have people on the right that are fiscally -- want to watch what we spend a lot more closely and they're just up

in arms. to people watching, just seems like more washington as usual all colored by an election. >> there was an election -- yeah, there's going to be an election this year let's remember what the market's telling us the federal reserve has bought more than 50% of the net increase in treasuries gold is at record numbers. the dollar is devaluing. the market is telling us they don't think we're handling this very well from a fiscal standpoint let's spend our money wisely but don't waste any dollars. somebody has to pay this back eventually. >> were there major mistakes made in florida, miami, some of the other hot spots that we see in covid right now would you say there are major mistakes made? human nature for people to want to get out and maybe acting recklessly in terms of social distancing, bars what's happening what caused that what could have prevented it >> joe, i think around the

country the difference between this and what i did with the hurricanes when i was a governor was i just inundated people with information. all across the country we still don't have good information. first off, wear a mask social distance. it shouldn't be that hard to figure this out. you look at it, there are a lot of people that were inconsistent with that message early on on top of that, we have to assume that, you know, we hope we get a vaccine, assume we won't, so tell people, don't assume we're going to get a vaccine that's going to be perfectly effective. how would you lead your life we have to get our economy open. we need to open our schools. we have to give parents choice but you've got to be responsible. we have to get more information out there about where the problem spots are, how do you stop it? if we do that, people are smart. they'll figure it out. they figured it out with hurricanes they'll figure it out with this. >> the data on the ground friday, saturday, sunday in florida, what would you say -- let's see the snapshot of the

covid in florida >> oh, we haven't beat it. we haven't beat it yet i mean, people need to go take this more seriously. part of it is wear your mask, social distance. the other part of it is at every level, federal, state, local government needs to tell us where the hot spots are. i had a zika issue that impacted newborns i was very specific when i was governor this is where the local transmission is. tell us where the problem spots are. you know what, we're pretty smart. we wouldn't go there but if you don't give us any information, how can we make good decisions assume the public's pretty smart and we'll make good decisions. >> do you -- what would you do if you were governor desantis? close anything down in the hot spots? what about the school? how would you reopen schools would you reopen schools >> i think first off what you've

got to do is get out there every day and get good information this is just not for the florida governor for governors every day. with regard to the schools, you've got to get the schools open but you have to give people choice if you don't want to send your child back to school, the child needs to be able to learn. you have to have a good program so they can learn online so the people are going to make -- everybody is going to make a decision at different times but i really believe we have to say to ourselves, i hope there's a vaccine. i hope the vaccine is effective. we've got to open our economy. we have to get back to normal assuming it's going to take longer than we think we cannot shut down our economy. we have to open up our economy we have to open up our schools >> senator, i don't know if you're following warren buffet's praise by name, criticize by category when you talk as generally as it seems like you have about the places where you think mistakes were made, but

speak though directly to your own governor, the former role that you served, also to the president's role and the administration's role in this. you talk about, you know, there were people who were inconsistent with masks. you know who those people are and so i'm just -- i'm curious why you wouldn't, a, name them and, b, speak directly to what they are doing or not doing at this point >> first off, in the middle of a crisis, you know, you shouldn't be criticizing everybody you should be talking about what you've got to do i think they have to be very consistent about the need for masks and social distancing. they have to be more consistent about the information to get out there to tell people how to act, where not to go, how you should change, things like that they have to be way -- at every level. part of that is federal, part of it is federal and part of it is local. someone i like a lot is steve

hahn they gave our doctors a lot of authority to make decisions so we're way better off than with therapeutics i think everybody is moving fast on the vaccine i think they've done that really well with regard to giving individual information about what you're going to do, i was talking to a teacher the other day, that person doesn't know, are they going to be given masks, face shields, gloves? how many kids will be in their class? come on. you've got to tell people -- give people information. they'll make good decisions. i was talking to another teacher that says she's going to teach online but she has to go to the school to do it. how does that make any sense so what you see is you see inconsistency. why can walmart be open but somebody that sells the exact same product as walmart have to be closed? did that make any sense? let's be consistent and give people good information. >> senator, is there a number

where you'd be a no on this -- the latest relief effort, latest relief bill? >> i can just tell you right now, i am not -- florida taxpayers should not be bailing out new york, florida, illinois, that's wrong i've been very clear about that. i want to look at the whole package. we have to take care of the unemployed and do things to get our economy open are we opening up the economy? why aren't we doing tax reductions we know if we want to get businesses to grow, reduce the regulation, permitting time, we'll get more jobs. where is that in the bill so far? i have not been hearing that that's what we have to do. we have to get the economy going. i look we have to help the people unemployed you know the biggest thing get them a job open up the economy. get the economy going again. assume the vaccine is going to be taking longer what would you do? i hope we get it done in just a few months, but get this economy

going. we've got to get that done this bill needs to focus on taking care of the people we need to but grow the economy get it open. >> senator scott, thanks have a good day. >> okay, you, too. andrew >> okay. coming up when we return, baseball is back and more live sports are finally on the way, but some big uncertainties lie ahead ft. meade yeah industry this fall. we'll tell you about the biggest risks and who is exposed as we head to a break, check out the price of gold. closing in on the $2,000 level we're going to take about the higher move with a top market technician later this hour stay tuned tcngsqwkoxright here on cnbc. the volatility. the ambiguity. this moment calls for more. and northern trust delivers more. with specialized expertise. proven strategies rooted in data and analytics... and insights borne from over 130 years of successfully navigating economic turbulence.

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning the fall tv season going to look very, very different this morning. good news for sports fans. julia boorstin has it. >> reporter: the fall tv season is the most important for the tv networks sports are finally returning that's the good news the giants versus dodgers game they saw the primetime ratings grow 17% while the two daytime games had ratings of 23% over fox's daytime theme. and espn's opening night game thursday generated the largest audience ever for an mlb opening night bringing in 4 million viewers. that's up 17% for the prior record back in 2017.

now the nba is scheduled to start playing on thursday and the nhl on saturday. the bad news is with production haltedsince mid march the broadcast networks can't debut a season in the fall with most scripted shows still unfinished. they're relying on competition, reality shows, animated series this will hit both the ad revenue as well as licensing revenue from the studios that produced those shows now the ugly piece of this is the risk that the nfl does not return if it doesn't, billions of dollars in advertising will be lost though sold an estimated $4.5 billion in ads last year andrew >> question though, why is the nfl a much bigger -- i assume it's the straight numbers than any other sport?

is it that much more outsized? >> it's the straight numbers but also, andrew, it could touch pretty much every single media company. so it's just the breadth of it, the fact that it's supposed to, you know, really culminate in the super bowl and there are so many games, so much money at risk and also the fact that it touches all of the different media. >> okay. julia, thank you want to continue this conversation bring in rich greenfield founding partner at lightshed partners let's go through the names, rich which in this environment do you want to own? what don't you want to own what are the surprises on the up and down side? >> it's awesome sports are back. i'm sure everyone enjoyed watching the games it's really strange when you see games without fans, but i think the record ratings that julia just talked about in part is people being starved for

content. you can't go to the movies movie theaters are not opening up any time soon there's obviously not a lot of fresh content. netflix has a lot of stuff but there really is very little now on traditional television because production was halt and they don't have the type of backlog that a netflix does. i think a part of it is not a lot else to do ratings were really good draft kings had a record night when baseball came back. i think there's a dramatic demand to bet on sports and that could be sort of the secret weapon that helps drive ratings even though the games without fans is a little more boring or not as interesting, the betting aspect is one to keep an eye on. >> rich, how concerned are you about the cord being cut during this period? how much are sports going to keep that cord from getting cut? >> i think, andrew, you just nailed it. that is the biggest single issue that sports can't fix. if you are not a sports fan, there is no reason to continue

your cable or satellite subscription that's exactly what we're seeing. >> we're on cnbc what are you talking about what are you talking about i give you a reason if you're not a sports fan and you're a business fan, a news fan, right here >> okay. that's awesome and i love watching cnbc. i watch it all day long on youtube tv i have it playing on my google home hub foot for me the reality is paying $100 a month for most people -- you know, look, you can get peacock you can watch bits and pieces of your content on peacock now at no cost for consumers. sports has been the one thing keeping the bundle together, but when you think about the overall subscribers, there used to be a multi-channel bundle ten years ago we peaked. that number is going to be in the low 70s by the time you end 2020

so we've had a pretty dramatic step down. the pace of cord cutting is unlike we've seen. andrew, to answer your question, sports is going to keep that number from going to zero. it will go to 100. it will go to 40 to 50 million there are probably 40 to 50 million homes in america that can't live without baseball, football, all of those sports they can't live without them they'll pay whatever it costs. the challenge for every media company, i don't care whether you're disney, comcast, nbc, what type of business do you have at 40 to 50 million subscribers. that's what we don't know yet. >> two very little things. how quickly do we get to 40 to 50 is that three years out, four years out, five years out? the secondary issue is do you think an amazon, a google, whether they end up bidding on sports rights, whether this accelerates that i throw in the mix, you have washington and antitrust issues. whether you touch t i don't

know. >> the first one, in terms of how fast i would have told you if i was on your show six months ago, we would have been talking about probably over the course of five or six years it seemed like you were progressing down 4, 5% rate in terms of subscribers. the pandemic has clearly poured lighter fluid on this trend. this has been a major accelerant between, you know, obviously the economy is weaker. forget about stimulus, the underlying economy is weaker people are looking to save money and there's not a lot of fresh content. there won't be you get there over three to four years versus over five to six years. you will probably lose 8.6 million. directv lost 1 million comcast this week probably loses half a million these are big chunks coming out of the multi-channel ecosystem your second question, andrew, that's been the one that everyone has been looking for. this is not just an issue for

people looking at the cable ecosystem. this is a big issue for sports leagues. if i'm sitting at the nfl, if i'm roger goodell, the big multi-billion dollar question, these companies whether you're talking disney, nbc, this contract may be great, but four, five years down the road they need new bidders if you remember back to 1994, fox came in with a knockout bid for cbs and started the race we have right now for sports rights they need the amazons, they need the apples so far amazon has dabbled. you've seen them do a little bit with baseball and tennis over seas they've dabbled. apple has no interest. we think they come out with a knockout bid for monday night football, sunday ticket, something big but it hasn't happened so big tech has literally not stepped in facebook shown really no interest anymore this he have' given up on sports youtube, google playing around the fringes. we just haven't seen it. so the sports leagues need it

really, really badly on the other hand, that actually could be a good sign if the big tech companies don't step in, it will reduce the pricing pressure on the media companies in terms of how much the inflation and rights are over the course of the next five or six years >> rich, just to piggyback on the cable bundle, when it comes to some of the streaming services, it seems like we're hitting the confluence of a couple of things first you mentioned the lack of new content to populate those sites and then you've got a downturn in the economy. which streaming services could be at most risk as we enter the back half of the year given those two things >> i mean, look. there's two streaming services, three streaming service that is have jumped out in front netflix is the behemoth. they've got content and because they produce globally, they're already producing more content relative to their peers because they have a global production

base that helps a lot disne disney+, production's really thin and they're struggling. it's effectively a painy sitter on demand. it's turned your old dvd archive into a subscription that you can't give up. i'm not sure after this quarter how many more subscribers they can give up but it's a stick jie service, especially with kids not going to school, quarantine not ending because of what we've done, failed to do, so i think that will be stickier than expected the two up start services, comcast with nbc and hbo max, both are struggling in terms of awareness. primarily because they don't have the big high profile content. i wouldn't count hbo max or peacock out because they don't have high profile original content today. both are core strategies when you listen to brian roberts and john stanke, core streaming

is critical. they've realized the multi-channel bundle is dying, it's not fixable stanke on cnbc didn't want to talk about directv walt pieseck thinks it gets merged with dish something is going to happen there strategically. the future are the streaming services the content is slower. it's going to hurt both companies in the short term. if you are taking a five to ten-year view, this blip of the next 12 to 18 months is going to be more painful than expected. the future is moving to streaming. everything is going to be streamed over time maybe it will take longer for sports, but i think all entertainment content is moving towards streaming and the consumer price value paying whatever, 5, $15 a month for the services is far, far better than the $100 for the multi-channel bundle. >> rich, it looks like you're ready to cover the nats game at 6:00. >> you want me to call the game, joe?

>> you should call the game. you're right about -- did you watch any mlb, rich? >> i thought the games with the fake fans were better than the game on espn with no fans. it was weird, the emptiness. >> i like fans if you got -- i'm telling you right about $10 down and for me it's been a renaissance, a rebirth. i'm involved doesn't matter that i'm not a fan of the pirates, but watching them yesterday, i had money on them, i loved it. >> i think sports betting is going to be the secret weapon that really helps. >> that's the only point i wanted to make i don't know how i finally got it in. >> rich greenfield. >> thanks. >> look, you put lightshed on the floor board or whatever it is >> coming up, what to watch -- >> lightshed see that really worked hard on that we're going to tell you about the economy when "squawk" returns.

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welcome back to "squawk box. rick santelli here live at hq cme breaking news, june preliminary read on durable goods. preliminary is important we'll get a much better potential number up 6.98% expected. end up 7.93% better than expected that follows sequentially, 15.1%. that was the second best read. the absolute best read was in july of 2014 when it was up, what, 23%. so this is solid number. let's take out transportation. still a solid 3.3. that's a little bit under expectations and it's also up 3.3 on capital goods orders, nondefense, x aircraft, proxy for capital spending which was

impaired but seems to be coming back a bit 3.3 is much better than we were looking for. if we look for shipments versus orders, that's up 3.4. pretty much outside of a little light on x transportation, these are better than expected data points the big story of the day, the dollar index down 3/4 of a cent. it is at the worst levels of over two years if you look at the strength in the euro, which is a significant part in the weakness in the dollar, there are some reasons for the dollar in and of itself. we've been talking about debt. joe had somebody from congress on today this is a big deal, all of the debt the euro currency flying, not only flying against the dollar, it's flying against the yen and the chinese currency where it's at the best level since the summer of 2014 andrew, back to you. >> rickster, thank you for that.

steve liesman, help us break down the numbers >> i'm sorry this is the hardest table that the government puts out to read so my apologies. singling out this new order for capital goods. up 3.3%. that's a positive number plus the issue of the new orders overall up 7.3%. that beats the consensus shipments up 15. i don't know what's been built in by economists for the gdp number for the second quarter. most had expected a rise in shipments so my best guess is that there's not going to be much of a change to the gdp. this is good there is a concern about rising inventories. inventories look like they were up again so there is stuff being produced the question is whether it will be taken down by end user customers. i do want to check motor

vehicles here. new orders from motor vehicles and parts up 85% shipments up 83% phil lebeau has been telling you this story about the turn around in auto manufacturing. that's another good sign cars are tough to find that's a good sign for the economy. overall, we want to watch that capital spending will tell us how good to grow and productive in the future. that there is a turn around for some measure of competence that was not reflected in the main report this morning. we'll have to see whether or not this thing sticks around with the resurgence in the virus. these numbers are for june we'll have to see if they stick around for july, melissa. >> i was going to ask you about that for the numbers being so called goosed because of the reopenings that have been

reversed in july >> sure. >> but you answered it stick around >> absolutely. no, absolutely this is a confidence thing sorry. you want to bring a guest. >> yeah, we're going to bring some guests in to talk about the reaction to this data as well as the expectations for the week. we have meagan green and stephanie link thanks for joining the panel here what's your take, meagan, on when we're going to get a good read on the u.s. economy >> unfortunately i think we're a ways off the economic economy has been waiting for good virus management until we can rein that in, it's

hard to figure out how much the economy will grow. we're not where we were in april where we felt like we were on quicksand and had no idea where the bottom was in terms of the durable goods figure, it was a volatile series i don't think economists will pinch on the sing dal at that point. i was concerned because auto production was up 105% that's a good indicator for new orders we need to figure a little bit more i think steve's point about inventories is really important. it does seem like inventories have risen we've seen retail sales bounce back recently. so a lot of people have suggested, well, that's a v-shaped recovery. it is an indication that some of the stimulus works, but if you look at the micro data, people are buying things like white goods, pool installations, landscaping. that's not where we lost all of our jobs there is a big disconnect. i'm not surprised to see inventories rising as companies

are producing this and people aren't actually buying it. i think that's something to watch. >> there's also the question, stephanie, as we witnessed a stutter step reopening of the economy as to whether -- how much of this is pulled forward in terms of purchasing all of these goods in advance and how will that dip in july as well as august as the country continues to grapple with the virus. how does the market sort of digest all of that and determine, you know, this was to stay or this was simply pulled forward from the future? >> well, good morning, melissa good to see you. i would say that the market has been kind of sideways for the last couple of weeks we've had a rotation within the markets where value is actually starting to outperform growth and some of the big tech names have actually pulled back pretty nicely, actually i'm looking for an opportunity to buy them. i think that that's what we were trying to figure out last week was the first week where economic data did start to

see a stall. i think we have seen a v-shaped recovery may and june. you had the initial jobs recovery you've had travel starting to decline a little bit that said, you have very strong housing. you just mentioned autos you have mike jackson on last week and he said they had the best quarter that they've ever had in their history so i think there are pockets of this economy that are doing quite well or starting to actually accelerate. existing home sales up 20% last month is quite remarkable. that's why the economic data to me is going to be so important this week. we have consumer products, pending home sales, gdps backwards looking. you also get pmi in china. this week is very, very important on the economic front. let's listen to what companies and ceos have to say there are haves and have nots. housing, ceos found it very

confident. the financials, the banks weren't as confident it's a stock picker's market we will get confidence about the recovery >> yeah. 1/3 of the sec 500 to report yeah, steve? >> i want to say the other thing, i liked stephanie's list of things to watch i know you have to watch washington you were talking about that this morning. i do believe a lot of people are going to change their forecast based on what that that would be acceptable in the range of keeping retail sales going, this idea of keeping it at 70% of the prior range. you might have an increase in unemployment because it's at 100% the unemployment insurance has played a big part. we've got data on this in keeping retail sales up, keeping the economy in the game for the rebound that stephanie's

looking for and other investors are looking for, if that goes away, then i think we have to change the forecast. >> stephanie, would you agree if that 70% number -- theoretically, if that's the number that republicans are going to throw out as a first sort of, you know, offer, then that number could very well end up higher for the negotiating process. >> absolutely. but it's going to get done i don't have any question about that because you have this uneven economy that i just mentioned, right you have the haves and the have nots congress is seeing that, the unevenness they have to get something done. this is a negotiation. going to create volatility in the markets. it gets done let's focus on the fundamentals. let's focus on the 30% in the s&p that will report, boeing, caterpillar, stanley black & decker we'll learn a lot by the end of the week, melissa, for sure. >> meagan, the fed meeting, we

might not get an answer whether fiscal stimulus passes i'm wondering if you think the fed will do anything, change anything, change language because of that timing impact? >> yeah. i don't think we can expect much from the fed this week at least. i think generally the fed's job is to keep our costs low and they've succeeded in doing that. they might talk a little bit about how effectively to imply forward guidance going forward i don't think we'll get an answer on that this week to your point, they won't have many details on what exactly the fiscal stimulus will look like they'll wait until september to do anything additional they're coming out with new forecasts and i think that would be a much better time for the fed to go ahead and make any changes at all i'm not really expecting anything from the fed this week. >> all right thank you, meagan green, stephanie link and our own steve liesman. coming up, much more on the markets as we are under an hour

to the opening bell here in wall street tomorrow do not miss microsoft co-founder bill gates right here on "squawk box" on the latest of the coronavirus. we'll bring you that special interview arstting at 6 a.m. eastern time stay tuned, we'll be right back. in new ways. to new customers. what if you could come back stronger? faster. better. at comcast business, we want to help you not just bounce back. but bounce forward. that's why we're helping you stay ahead and adapt with a network you can count on, 24/7 support and flexible solutions that work wherever you are. call or go online today. find a stock basedtech. on your interests or what's trending. get real-time insights in your customized view of the market. it's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions. fidelity.

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coming up. what market technicals are telling us about what the price of gold might tell us. it's up another 1.5% this morning, the chart indicators and what they're saying about the summer tech rally. the biggest stocks like apple, amazon, facebook and alphabet. what about them? parent company google has more room to run. it's a very big week for those companies. the ceos face the house judiciary committee in a hearing on wednesday originally slated for today. postponed following the death of congressman john lewis "squawk box" will be right back. for as little as $5, now anyone can own companies in the s&p 500, even if their shares cost more. at $5 a slice, you could own ten companies for $50 instead of paying thousands.

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welcome back to "squawk box. want to get over to cnbc headquarters where jim cramer joins us jim, another big week of

earnings curious how you want to play into those earnings reports. >> i just wish there weren't so many firms that raised the price targets for alphabet and raise for amazon just setting us up for a ridiculous bar that makes it so it's so hard, andrew, to be able to assess things i like to see the bar lower. i also know there's antifaang talk everywhere, including on capitol hill i think we're going to revert to some faang look, apple in particular, because we have a negative number about apple, butwhen yo see giant price targets, andrew, why? why can't they shut up >> so hold on. between the earnings reports and this tech, i don't know if it will be theater, i imagine it will be some form of theater on wednesday. >> right. >> by the end of the week, how do you think things play out >> i think people get exhausted. >> okay. >> they'll get confused. they'll make mistakes. they'll believe that there's a

slowdown in the cloud in particular, and they'll say, you know what, we have to revert to stocks like stephan links likes. i want to buy all of the cloud stocks something like amazon, after they report. i think google cloud is going to be great amazon web service is going to be great apple service is going to be great. it doesn't matter. when you do these setups, you raise your price target ahead, it's almost like you're wishing they would come down so you can say, i'm lowering my price target and i tonight think they're strong i've seen this game played so often, it really is sickening, andrew let's play a new game. let's play a game about moderna claiming they can't change their presale. the lawyers say, once you report, you have to stop doing that what kind of counsel do they have i want their counsel that says you can do whatever you want >> well, i think what they're saying is it's a company policy, but i -- >> oh, company policy. >> clearly not a law.

>> if i were their lawyer, i would say, i can't give you any comfort on this. we don't want you to trade the government doesn't want you to trade it, period, end of story. they don't want you to trade it. however, whatever he says, i happen to like his product, whatever he says, the government says we prefer you not to trade. how he can come on and say thate what kind of lawyers does he have what has he got? >> here's a question, jim. all of the drug, you know, i think there's been a billion dollars of insider sales since the beginning of the pandemic related to this stuff. would you want to own any of these names as a result of this? do you put a discount on those stocks as a result >> i likeifi pfizer and j&j. and people with the left arm who had the placebo and they get 30,000 and maybe 400 cases and in the right arm they get 100 and we decide it's good. the idea that 50%, if you were

protected by 50% no one is going to take it if you only protect 50% i prefer pfizer right now. i think pfizer will do a two-shot solution and get you closer to 85 and pfizer they don't dump stock. stop the sell programs don't say that that's one of those things that tells you something is good. but there's no comfort they should be getting no -- that article is unbelievable didn't you wish you had written that article, andrew >> it was a good piece, jim. very, very good piece in "the times. what do you make of gold moving the way it has and bitcoin over 10,000 this morning. >> gold to me is a sign that there will be no vaccine that it will all fail. and it's the only hope because -- >> by the way, if that's true. what are we doing, what is the equity market doing? >> well, the equity market is very hopeful there will be a vaccine and the gold market thinks there won't be.

printing money forever and therefore we have to just take a very negative view on all central banks and currencies i don't know pretty good hedge. gold is breaking out clearly people should have gold or own gld. but, yeah, the gold people just think that the vaccine is not happening. and i know that sounds really discouraging, but if you're going to have to keep printing money until the vaccine comes out, that's a lot of money some talk about some percentage of gdp not okay to be some percentage sounds like france before world war ii they were printing money >> imjim, we look forward to seeing you >> you're the best. >> we'll have bill gates on tomorrow to talk about vaccines and that's worthwile thing to listen to tomorrow morning here on "squawk." thanks, jim. melissa? coming up, we'll talk more gold after an all-time high this

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gold is shining, once again, this morning spot prices touching all-time highs as the dollar index sits around the two-year low. gold mining stocks rising, as well we talk about gold latest technical indicators robert manager of director and it's been a long base being built for gold it is now exceeding levels hit in 2011 and i think when people thought it was going above 2,000. so, it's been about eight years

of, you know, retest and it gave back 50% of that move and then it's built a long saucer bottom. this is not surprising then? >> i think it's just a very big bullish, long-term technical profile. i think, obviously, in the near term gold is a little stretched and a pretty big surge here. and i think you really have to step back and look at the longerterm picture as you just described, joe, trading in a big ten-year base and accelerating up the higher end of that range and that is pretty bullish technical action we want to make long gold stocks and two tail wind here one is, obviously, real rates from a negative. that's a huge tailwind for gold and the dollar you put these two tail winds behind it and i think the pattern is legit on pull backs we want to be buying gold stocks >> the dollar is seeing its highs in the last eight months or so for how long

>> i think it's a longerterm peak probably measured in years, joe. we've seen highs, well over a decade ago another lower high over the last sort of ten years and then we just had this peak here in 2019, 2020 so, i think the doctllar head is lower. and the real rate is bullish for gold the other part about the dollar is i think it's bullish for cyclicals. >> but you think tech, we'll switch gears a little. tech has had a great run and pull back to be expected and then you think tech needs to be in most portfolios along with cyclical like a bar bell approach >> i do. i know it's a cliche statement to be making and working very well we have technology as long-term leadership and not a lot of evidence to make a case that it's over. i don't think it's over. so, they certainly run a lot of the weekly indicators and tend

to track one to two quarter shifts and bought and pull backs and starting to see some trend breaks and there's sign you're getting a consolidation or pull back and i think it's really early to make any technical statement that that is a big long-term, i think it's a consolidation and setting up for rotation along cyclical stocks >> what you leave out. the middle of the bar bell is safe stocks, like what >> utilities and staples certainly names in those sectors that are going to work but in general we want to be underweight safety staples, utilities, overweight, more cyclical areas and then on this pull back we'll add to a lot of the tech stocks amazon, netflix just breaking out of two-year trading ranges i think some time probably more like september, october. >> you like the mining stock like back to gold. i think you made the case that the average for the last, i don't know, ten years or whatever is 1,500.

a double to 3,000 would not surprise you way to play with bullion or gold stocks or etf? >> paper assets. the gld and the gold stocks but that's probably what most of us are limited to so the gld still looks fine longer term, particularly on near term but the large cap gold etf still looks pretty timely from a long-term standpoint and so do the juniors. >> you're not looking fundamentally on what is going on with gold for you the money printing anything to do with covid or vaccines >> boy, joe. finding out the reasons why the markets are doing this always a slippery slope particularly as a technician but i think it's a function of real rates and the dollar going lower is just met for gold stocks. >> you know, it doesn't give you any income, really nothing gives you income gold on a relative basis

all right, robert. thank you. we'll check back >> thanks, joe >> certainly something to watch and there are long-time gold bugs that were waiting a while for this andrew, you've seen them melissa. they know who they are and they're feeling smart. we'll see what happens looks pretty good on the chart, that's for sure. thanks, melissa, we'll see you tomorrow andrew, we'll see you tomorrow and we'll see you, "squawk on the street" is next. good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." a big week peak earnings week and the third of the dow reports a fed meeting. big tech on capitol hill, our first look at q2 gdp. gold all-time high dollar tr