hi, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. as we hurdle toward friday's stimulus deadline, a look to the economy if a deal doesn't get done a new letter emerges to describe the recovery plus, it's tilman tuesday. if you watch this network hoping your stocks can go up so you can leave your kids and grand kids a

lot of money when you die, you're doing it wrong according to the author of a new book. "power lunch" starts right now >> we welcome you to "power lunch. stocks lower the dow is down less than 50 points right now 3m and mcdonald's are two of the biggest contributors to that decline. both reported results this morning. we'll have details a bit later in the meantime, bob gets us caught up on what's been happening on the market today. robert >> hello, william. good to see you. we have one third of the s&p reporting. two stories. one is the reopening story is not going that well. the other story is cheer up. the second quarter was the bottom which is it? sherwin williams knocking the

ball off everybody is painting their house. the home builders are billing it dr horton, great numbers orders were way above expectations then there's the other side, companies saying we are not providing any guidance xerox didn't either. raytheon didn't give any harley davidson was way below expectations mcdonald's were light. they didn't provide guidance either they did try to find an optimistic note. here is the ceo of mcdonald's. he says i believe the second quarter represents the trough in our performance as mcdonald's ha has learned to adjust our operations what is the story with earnings this season. there's really two stories one is the kind of bearish one the reopening is slowing down. we're not sure what's going down it will impact us. that's what xerox said

another bullish option said second quarter is the bottom the trend is improving from here that's what the battle is now. the economy has the long road to recovery especially when it comes to unemployment rate. there is some good news. a new cnbc survey shows that most believe the number of unemployed has peaked. steve is here with the results for us steve. >> people should put on their seat belts and may not be taking them off for a while if you look at the unemployment rate, we are a long way coming back take a look. 3.5% is the number we went into this for the unemployment rate that came up to 11.1%. most in the survey believe it has beat it doesn't get back down it stays around 10% by the end of this year and even 7.3% more than double at the end of next

year when will the economy be fully restored the average response, q2 '22 how about the recession declared to have begun in february. 33% think it's pretty much gone now. that's what that response indicates. another 20% call it, think it will be ended by the end of this year 38% think the recession will go on some time into nec yext year. recession is over says allen sinai. recovery and expansion will be long and uneven. fully restoring economic activity will require people to be comfortable with relaxing physical distancing and indoor spaces which will probably require a vaccine being widely available. there's these two ideas here whether or not we're back fully and whether or not the recession is over. recession probably ends back toss it back to bill, if you're here someone needs a fourth griffith.

>> kelly has a burning question for you right now. >> i do. >> okay. >> it's about the alphabet we heard about the u and the different kinds of vs, the square root symbol that could describe the recovery. people are talking about the k shape. it's what you were describing and what bob was talking about explain the "k." >> i really like this way of thinking about it because it suggests the really divergent outcomes that are out there and leads you to better economic policy what the k tells us is that some folks are doing very well. people who are able to work at home such as ourselves all kinds of professionals who are able to work from home they have one experience with this recession those who can't, those whose jobs are gone have a different experience some companies like amazon, their issues bonds at the lowest rates ever other companies can't find

financing. it leads you to two different experiences when it comes to recovery and recent downturn it focused policy where it should be is on that lower leg of the k kelly. >> as i said, my favorite letter although maybe not in this case given what it represents >> steve, i can only give you a six out of ten for your background at least should have your wife's book behind you there. you know that. >> it is there's two of them. >> i mean where martin is. that's where your wife's book should be. there you go much better. you're welcome >> thanks, bill. >> see you later as we mentioned the stocks are lower today as the market tries to handicap the outcome of the stimulus fight in d.c. also wrestling with the true message coming out of corporate america this earning season. joining us with their trying the make sense of it all, ally the

managing director with ubs private wealth management. good to see you both >> i hesitate to give my own opinion before you even start talking about it what i keep hearing is it's right now the market gains are all about the fed's easy money policy i keep hearing about the wran l wrangling in washington over the stimulus package and race to get a vaccine. what is the primary motivation for the market right now >> thank you it's good to be with you everything that was said prior is spot on today's purgatory the market moving or not moving is basically based on waiting for to see what the fed tone is tomorrow you can drive a truck between the 1 and 3 million dollar proposals out there. it needs to be targeted whether it goes to cities or states and

tech, we have 6 to 7 stocks. one not even being part of one of these benchmarks that is up 35% year to date versus s&p that's flat to down. you have five companies that are accounting for about 22% of market movement and as one of our strategists said, you have to watch your weight that doesn't mean you have to watch your covid-19 here you have to watch your weight in your portfolio those stocks, we need some more breadth to continue this rally for those to continue or for new leadership to take over then we need stimulus that feels okay to the market we need we need that to continue we're going to get a binary reaction.

>> peter, what are you watching now and are you -- has the market gotten ahead of itself here are you still constructive on gains down the road? >> thanks so much for that question that's what i really wanted to focus on i think the most important thing for all investors at this point is to establish a firm opinion whether or not the vaccines are going to be successful i think all the other thing thi with all respect, are secondary. we can't go on in band aid fashion. earnings are week and they will continue to be week. >> why is the market going up here >> i think there's some people that are on my side that are saying absolutely we will get a vaccine.

then the narrative will get upgra upgraded does it work how many viles are -- vials are out there. there are investors that are long like myself that believe over the 35 plus companies that are out there, driven byincenti get vaccines >> where does that leave you >> i think it's tale of two cities where you have companies that are concerned about what they will see in the future. they are concerned about spending they are concerned about supply chain, the election and implications on their cost structure and that is definitely a problem in terms of continuing to invest in and support the market on the other side you have this massive stimulus

it's clear without -- it's clear both from the perspective of medical data and the world health organization and what they have been putting forth and from what the ceos have been saying that the worst is behind us we bottomed to april the question is, whether it's k, whether it's a w, whether it's a u. thank god me and my kids are past nursery school, but i think the fed and chair powell, he's going to talk about tomorrow i would assume, as well. it's going po be a slow and uneven path. the only thing i would say is that i agree there's going to be continued volatility i do not gagree that clients

should be sitting in cash. staying in the game is the name of long term wealth accumulation evaluate your weight rebalance your equity portfolio so you flatten out your growth exposure and make sure that you are diversified across your assets do be prepared for continued volatility >> very good, folks. thank you. thanks for joining us today. haven't even started nursery school pfizer shares are higher and announcing phase three trial for its covid vaccine candidate. we sat down with the ceo just last hour. meg has the key take aways >> pfizer enters the last phase of testing they join moderna who started

their phase three trials yesterday. these are large trials in this case up to 30,000 participants it's designed to look at safety and efficacy half the people will receive the vaccine. half will receive placebo. success means they follow the groups and see in going about their every day lives if the people that the vaccine get fewer infections than the people with the placebo the threshold is a 50% level. >> the more the efficacy the vaccine is, that could come even

early. >> even if they get the results that quickly, supply is going to be a problem at the beginning. pfizer says it will have 100 million doses manufactured by the end of this year and 1.3 billion by the end of 2021 if this is potentially getting some kind of regulatory thorgz as soon as late this fall or early in the winter, just 100 million dose will be available that's for the entire globe. remember, this is probably a two shot vaccine that's enough for 50 million people just to start back over to you >> i hadn't even thought through that you have to divide it by two every time hopeful time line. >> i watched the interview you did last hour with great interest i loved his line when you talked about doing the math they've got six months of efficacy proven for this, it could be out by january. he said there's only so much he can control. he can control the

manufacturing, he can control some of the other elements in the production of this, but he cannot control the results of that that is the big variable at this point, isn't it? >> luabsolutely he said he was very optimistic based on the data they have seen he noted it has happened before. even on very good early data, drugs and vaccines have failed to work in later stages. he's trying to be realistic but saying he's still an optimist at this point >> all right thank you. coming up, stimulus fears are growing. one top retail analyst is worried about what will happen to the sector without another shot in the arm for consumers. he joins us to share his top picks. every day another one of his businesses is shut back down why he thinks the economy could be in serious trouble without more government aid. stay with us experience the adventure of a bigger world

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welcome back retail one of the hardest hit sectors during the pandemic. without another round of stimulus would the rebound be threatened joining us is a new note laying out some of the best bets in retail and some of your concerns it's good to have you with us. welcome. >> we are talking about another round of checks to households in the stimulus package

>> something we're really worried about the be savings rate could be a helpful driver if this doesn't happen it will be caution that does lead into the stocks that we like it's huge ideas in curb side that's why we like walmart and target we're a cautious consumer environment. consumers are looking for value and safe experience. they also need necessity that will benefit walmart. that will benefit target as well >> asking for a friend, does costco do that kind of curb side pick up? i know they partner with

instacart but they seem to be pretty store centric >> they do you curb side i use it regularly they have a very fixed mark up you cannot get a better deal on those diamonds, the kirkland private label brand is very powerful another value play we like is planet fitness as well as we think about the future of he tail, we really believe in recommerce less is more retail. people need less stuff and everybody is identifying that in their lives. >> we should be in back to school shopping season right now. is there such a thing this year? will there be a holiday shopping

season this year although that's an eternity down the road but what about the seasons that we normally talk about when it comes to retail? buying things you need that's changed a lot. the reality of school and all the uncertainty is presenting a lot of big challenges. the number one trend is really comfort and comfort in clothing and versatile. you're realizing you only need a few shirts and items that's really becoming the new norm assortments are having to change everybody loves newness. we expect malls to contract by 40% to 600 some retailers are clearly going

back ru bankrupt and liquidating others have an opportunity to gain market share. black friday is to be determined too given the changing nature of physical retail and how important safety is. >> maybe cyber monday wins it's now become what we dofor retail thanks so much for being here. we appreciate it >> great being with you. thank you for having me. coming up, boeing results are on deck. wall street is expecting some pretty ugly numbers but does that negative sentiment make now the time to buy? our traders will debate that coming up next plus, growing covid cases in the mlb. more games cancelled will the restart of sports be short lived. the owner of the houston rockets. what do you look for when you trade? i want free access to research.

yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. mhm, yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. now offering zero commissions on online trades. we charge you less so you have more to invest. ♪

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welcome back air travel on the decline, investors are keeping close eye on boeing ahead of its earnings report the stock has lost half of its value in 2020 as the company struggles to recover let's debate with the trading nation team. >> i' lot of pain the aerospace industry is under. i'm curious if you think the bad news is priced into boeing stock or have room for the downside? >> for now, no we discussed the airline industry last week on this show.

we think it's still a no touch on top of the 737 issues we saw the recertification delayed. resurgence in covid that will impact corporate travel that's a significant revenue source for the airlines and this work at home environment. 40 hopefully we get a return to normalcy here. it's still a great american company. it's got a lot of assets >> the air travel industry is

having some issues you had bit of recovery after the depths of the shutdown that progress got stunted. you had the quarantines. these mandatory kwarns and travel restrictions in the united states and restrictions for u.s. travelers going over seas no company within the travel and leisure space is a winner right now. what we're trying to do is separate survivors from companies that won't look boeing is likely to be survivor but in the short run, it's really challenging environment. for instant analysis, check out our website. just ahead, time for our weekly special tilman tuesdays. landry's chairman and ceo will join us to talk about sports, reopening roll backs, government

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the dreamers program, according to a senior administration official that appears to conflict with a federal judge's order to accept new applications asked if the administration expect a court challenge, the official said yes, of course

end quote. attorney general barr says he does not believe the november elections will be rigged though he has concerned about the sharp i crease of the use of mail ins ballots. researchers have taken a big step of developing a blood for for alzheimer's disease. there's also signs more than 20 years before they are expected to develop cognitive problems. a florida man has been charged with fraudulently receiving $4 million in ppp funds and yuusing some of that money to buy this. he registered in his name as well as one of his companies back to you guys >> yes, indeed humanity >> or the lack of. >> or the lack of. thank you, sue >> you got it. get you caught up in the markets. modest declines as we're in the midst of the busiest earnings of

the season the s&p, nasdaq, russell all lower. the oil market is closing for the day. let gee let's go to dominic for that >> you have u.s. benchmark west texas intermedia or wti prices, $41.03 nearly 1.5% declines there you can see $43.20 about a half a percent decline there. oil traders are really trying to handicap at this stage the likelihood that lawmakers in washington can come to an agreement on new coronavirus relief packages. democrats and republicans are seen as being pretty far apart on the details of that rescue plan that might be a dampening effect on fuel demand. there's a holding pattern around the federal reserve interest rate policy decision for

tomorrow afternoon back over to you time now for tilman tuesday. it's our weekly pulse check on the economy. the rockets owner and best selling author tilman tertitta as he looks out toward the holiday season and the fourth quarter bookings, he says those events, parties and hotel businesses are not coming in now. welcome back so much talk about today including online gambling, the bubble trouble in prosports. let's start with the economy and especially as we focus on what congress might do with that unemployment benefit >> i've been trying to figure

out why my bentley's and rolls royce sales are up maybe it's ppp money >> yeah, fraud >> like he thought he was going to get away with that. i don't know whatever >> next, this $600 a week, i look at the thousands of employees out there. the $600 of true stimulus. people are siing how does that work together. if that money isn't being spent in these retail stores, these restaurants. anybody business out there, even

automotive and home repair and home debow and all the people that are buying goods. you don't need employees to run this business because they are not out there spending it. i think you'll see the economy and i've always been telling you this is not a v recovery i think people are starting to raelds that. >> before we get into the rule that is are driving you crazy, what are you seeing in general where is it a v. where is it an l where is it worse? >> even though we lost full service in california, we have lost kentucky, pennsylvania, every other day another city changes the rules on us or another state. it's mainly cities though.

what's happening is, it looks like it just levelled off. these are some of the busiest weeks of the year for leisure business and people going out. it looks, people are spending x amount of dollars right now for for entertainment, eating out, whatever they're going to do, retail it will be interesting to see what happens as the summer comes to a close it's like no matter ha they do to us right now, 50 or 25% of our business seems to be in the small change of only off 2 to 3 to 4% every day. remember when kids go back to school and you say they're not really going back to school, but yes they really are going back to school. school is on your mind it's like everybody was out of school before memorial day, but yet nobody vacations what's going to be interesting to see what happens in the next 30 days in the economy >> sports have been on a lot of

people's mind with the reemergence of baseball over the weekend. however, there were the 14 member of the florida marlins who tested positive. that had to give you some pause as you get ready for the reopening of the nba season on thursday what are you guys talking about? are you concerned that an adverse movement in major league baseball could have an impack on the nba as well? >> what happens in mlb isn't going to affect the nba. right now it's working in the wnba it's appears to be working in the nba with more cases. people are moving around and in baseball you have tier 2 can meet with tier 1 all it takes is one person who is a community spreader and that could happen to all of us. you sure don't want it to start happening to a few teams because

then what happens. the same with football this is going to be interesting. every week, every day with this covid now when football starts playing and basketball starts playing and baseball starts playing because we're going somewhere we have never gone before >> do you guys have plan b heaven forbid that you have a situation where one of the teams in the nba experiences what the marlins are experiencing right now. it's unlikely given the bubble situation but it's still possible what's the plan b if that happens? >> well, i think whatever is seen as the best players will be in the best shape. the other team will have a drastic advantage. just like marlins will start playing and the teams playing them will have a drastic

advantage. that's all you can do. there's no magic wand here you can't make it better if you're sick, you have to sit out until you're better. it's going be very interesting right now. >> i think there's more at stake than the prosports league. what about the rest of us? how detrimental would it be for confidence if this fails >> i think everybody is watching that you're sitting there and thinking the nfl, i mean the college football season will start on august 29th. how does it happen these are kids that are not getting paid we all love college athletics. i think we're going to see a lot happen now in the next four weeks with all these sports. we're in a changing time

we've all been talking about it but d day is here. we are going to see what's going to really happen out there with college sports and it's either going to come together or it isn't. it will be really be sad if we don't get to watch college football this year if it's not a safe environment and too many players are not getting paid go out, it's going to be a tough situation. >> not surprisingly we saw pop in online gaming over the weekend with the reemergence of major league baseball. you're heavily into the gambling business with many of your business interests what impact is that going to have if they have to give up on baseball where is the betting going on right now? pga tour is doing pretty well now. you'll have the nba start up what's the outlook for your business in that regard? >> let's be honest there's such a small amount of bets on soccer in america and

baseball even. even pga or whatever football is the king of sports betting. that's the way it is then the nba and then baseball it's not going be good for the sports folks that's why online gaming is so important for these states and that's why you'll see so many states for the next couple of years recognize that sports betsing isn't big enough you want to have online gaming like new jersey and that's what pennsylvania pass now andmy m michigan and other states because it's kind of the key to the future it's kind of interesting right when a pandemic happens the states have started approving online gaming. you saw what an advantage that new jersey had but can still bring a bunch of tax revenue because of the fact of our so successful online gaming in new jersey new jersey, we have live dealers where you can play we have a studio with 20 tables

with these beautiful ladies that are dealing you the cards and i think we have some guys too. you're playing blackjack you're playing it. it's real and it's live. it's live online gaming. i think you'll see many states continue to do this. we don't know that they say this pandemic will live with us for a long, long time. i'm excited to what we did sg w >> way to sell the business. >> speaking of the business, i have one more question for you i'm looking through the numbers of what's going on with your different businesses the restaurant down 40%. tourist and leisure down 60% the new york numbers are terrible california, texas and we're talking about it's unlikely we'll get big bookings for the holiday period this is the strongest two weeks of the summer. my question from a business owner and operator point of view is, what do you do

you said it could be going on for long time. do you diversify into other revenue streams. do you sell stuff down at what could get good prices. i'm just very curious what kind of strategic options you would consider >> that's really good question, kelly. number one, me, personally, we're not selling. if anything, we're still out there looking to acquire assets because i've always said these are opportunistic times. i get crazy questions. are you going to set part of rockets? are you going to do this i just laugh at it people don't understand other people's financial situation they see that you're restaurants are not doing well gaming is doing well we're trying to hold this thing together you don't start selling things people don't understand what other people are able to do and not able to do let's talk about the holidays though you don't realize how many

businesses, retame and restaurants, they could be open just the month of december and break even the other 11 months there's so much money made in the month of december in the restaurant business. it's going to be hard on a lot of restaurant companies. we don't know that we'll get more than eight or ten people at a table together also, we're going to be in the middle of the flu season come december we looked at december. we're worried about december i know retail is extremely worried and all your big mail operators are extremely worried. it does not look like this is going to change in the next six months we've been in this now almost

five months. we kept thinking it was going to change it's only gotten worse there's no reason to think it will be better >> the fact you said you're not looking to sell anything is even more power thanks so much >> thanks. >> thanks guys enjoyed it coming up, we'll bring you today's power movers we'll take a dip into chip stocks and speak to the author of a new book giving some surprisie ining financial advice

welcome back we have been seeing record low interest rates rick is tracking the action at

the cme. rick >> hi, bill. we're making more history right at this moment three year, five year and seven year are on top. i know we're splitting basis points here but look at intraday 7. it closes .44. we are higher price. look at this chart it's fascinating mid-may of boon yields we're at the lowest yield. let's throw a euro currency on a boon chart starting the second week in june look at how they've separated. talk about economic doesn't make senz lower yields crashing into negative territory and the currency is literally on fire. he's swap it out for boons and have the euro on the gold chart. this is like the anti-dollar chart. look at it going like a rocket ship there's a lot more going on than most economic textbooks have every covered in a single

chapter. bill and kelly, back to you. >> that's how it feels here every day. amd reporting earnings after the bell the stock is on roll it's up 50% this year. can it deliver ayitus

welcome back amd is set to report after the bell today chip stocks are soaring from the lows, benefitting from the work at home trend. people buy more computers and laptops. we have more on what to expect from amd josh >> heading into this report here, amd has been on a roll

it is slipping today you can see this stock is up 50% so far this year and nearly 30% just this month now on track for its best month since january 2019 investors are making a bet that amd will capitalize on intel's latest stumbles. they announced a production delay impacting the first nanometer chips. amd already sells them intel, big changes the chief officer is out once talked as a replacement for the former ceo he is resigning august 3rd bottom line, what does this all mean for amd rbc's mitch steves argues this is a real opportunity for ceo lisa su. she can now take meaningful market share in the quarters and years ahead. though he emphasizes there is risk too

it could impact demand and unlikely amd could stumble with execution issues too, like intel. back to you. >> all right thank you. look forward to seeing the results shortly. former energy trader bill perkins is out with a new book and radical message. the "die with nothing. don't forget can you always watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app we're back right after this. my name is christine payne, i'm an associate here at amazon. step onto the blue line, sir. this device is giving us an accurate temperature check. you're good to go. i have to take care of my coworkers. that's how i am. i have a son, and he said, "one day i'm gonna be like you, i'm gonna help people."

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welcome back we've all learned through our lives, saving your money for your golden years. save for retirement. but our next guest says actually do the opposite in many cases. he is out with a new book today called "die with zero. it's all about how to maximize your life enjoyment rather than maximizing your ealth. bill perkins is also an energy trader and high stakes poker player one for the -- i've been hearing about some of the prop bets you

put out there. but we don't have time for that. i mean you're the one that says in the only fable about the carefree grasshopper and the frugalant that theant had it all wrong, right >> yeah. look, he didn't have it completely wrong s ant but he didn't get to enjoy they delay so much that they actually never have gratification. so they're essentially working for free or wasting their lives in that case >> point well taken. not everybody has enough to save these days they still want to live that care-free life to some degree. and what they end up doing is taking on more debt. credit card bills go sky high. what do you say to those people? >> well, i say i was once like you. and i had to get in balance. this book is not about spending and lighting money on fire as i

have done in the past. this book is about balance i talk about your survival member, making sure you have enough money to last you when you have no further income at various stages in our life, we either have money, health, or time and we have varying agrees and so this book is about balancing those and using resources to get the most out of life >> kelly >> well, i -- there are so many places i could go with this, bill let me take it to something that i think a lot of us struggle w you do all of the different bets with people to get them to lose weight or improve their physical fitness or what have you tell me about the one you were trying to limit it to just 14 hours a week of screen time. >> yeah, the most recent bet i have is a meantal health between me and a friend. five hours a day of screen time. >> five hours. >> five hours. st we have five hours a day. unfortunately, i use my phone

for trading and business so we're trying to use it for business and not not much else and after that, there's a penalty of $10,000 an hour so there is a huge incentive to keep our phone use down and stay present and interact with people that's what i talk about in the book being present. keeping your health. one of the biggest factors in your enjoyment of life, your fulfillment, how you enjoy every single experience along the way is your health andmental health is part of that >> aren't we just wired for. that either that or not? can this be taught very quickly, about i will >> yeah, i think habits can be taught taking small steps i think awareness is the first part of it a lot of us get good at work or building business and so focused on that, making more money, it becomes a habit and we forget the other aspects of our life. you forget how you got home. you're on autopilot.

what i want to do is get people off autopilot and have the experience that's they really want to have in life and not have them pass them by >> got it. the book is called "die with zero." >> i'm always on autopilot, bill >> i'm aware i'm going back to my retirement now. >> it's been fun we'll see you again soon thanks for watching "power lunch," everyone "closing bell" starts right now. >> welcome everyone to "closing bell." stocks are struggling back towards the flat line. 59 minutes left until the close. plenty more earnings coming this afternoon to keep us all busy. let's look at what is driving the action right now negotiations continuing in washington over the next round of stimulus, particularly unemployment benefits. both sides digging in. new data showing consumer confidence weakened in july amid a surge of coronavirus