good afternoon welcome back green numbers. nasdaq record high before turning lower. the right now the major averages are holding onto modse esmodest. a stimulus stalemate over the next round of funding to help the economy and individuals. ford higher after ceo says he will step down as ceo that as his turn around plan has stalled out. we have a special report on the man who will take his place. later, it's tilman tuesday he says it might be years before his business is back to normal he will tell us how he's planning for a much longer road to recovery. p "power lunch" starts right now. thanks we have a couple of big movers today. microsoft the worst performer in

the dow as the president says the u.s. government should take a cut of its deal. apple inches toward a $2 trillion market cap. the price we're looking for to hit that level is 4.6777 about $27 above where we are now. apple is up 1% today gold topping $2,000 an ounce for the first time ever. the precious metal is up as the market attempts to price in a post-pandemic recovery, there are new signs the road back could be longer and bumpier than experts think steve is digging into the data >> good afternoon. even if the forecast of economists for the strong second half ebound pans out, the u.s. economy is still going to be in the e kwif lenquivalent of a reb

year end the unemployment rate forecast decline from 11.1% now to 9.8% by december. look at those numbers and the 9.8% unemployment rate would make it the third highest among recessions we have done a good job of taking it down from 15%. it would be e clipted by the surgeon jobless followed by the 81 and '08 recessions. charlie evans talking to reporters yesterday said our outlook is it's going to take us into the mid 2022 until we enjoy the level of growth we have at the beginning of 2019. the outlook for a slow recovery sleeving slack in the economy helping explain why the federal reserve is pointing toward long period of low rates and why it continues to look for ways to stimulate the economy despite a lot of stimulus so far i'll get chance to ask some of these questions tomorrow morning. sitting down with federal

reserve vice chair to look at this outlook for the u.s. economy. the extraordinary actions taken by the fed and what more they could be doing tyler. >> steve, the new york fed out with a new study that black owned small businesses are feeling the pain of this economic setback the most. can you tell us more detail? >> the study said that black owned businesses suffer a one-two punch. first they were in the areas that were hardest hit by covid and second of all the ppp program did not do a good job of tailoring the aids it gave to small businesses to the hardest hit areas. they came into the crisis with fewer banking relationships, perhaps fewer stable businesses, then, for example, white owned businesses the recommendations is in naex round of ppp, it's more targeted to areas hardest hit by covid. tyler. >> thank you very much

when will we start to see the economic realities reflected welcome, folks joe, let me start with you can you have 10% unemployment and not be in a recession? >> yeah. i think the technical deaf sifin of recession is when you stop falling. you would say when do i get back to where i was pre-covid even though the rescission may have ended last month, it's going to be quite some time before we get back to where we were that's unfortunate i think the market will care more about where we are headed rather than the level we currently are at

>> if you had to put a date on it, when do you think the economy will get back to where it was, let's say in january or february of this year? >> it's a great question our best estimates really around early 2022 again, there's going to be variation in that. some parts of the economy we won't expect it will rebound more quickly i would say auto sales is a good example. other sectors of the economy, anything with social intensity to it will be a number of years, if at all. you see some of that reflected in the equity market early 2022 assuming we have some progress on the vaccine headed into next year >> air travel, hospitality, vents, conventions would be hard hit there. kevin, tell us a bit about whether you think, let's look forward to the day where we get a vaccine. does the economy switch back on

like that? does the market take off like that or what >> the economy, it's all going to depend on how quickly we get people the back to work. the economy and the market are two different things we could continue to have high unemployment in the economy and the economy be affected. however, the market actually go up how can this happen? it can happen if you have companies becoming more efficient with stay at home economy growing, you'll see technology companies continue to grow and that may be the impetus for having the market take off and not have the economy take off. >> let's talk a bit about the market and where you see the targets of opportunity you like software and services and medical devices in the held

ca -- lehealth care area explain. >> we're going into a period of time where there's going be a lot of virtual studying online as far as health care is concerned, we know that health care will come under some pressure as the election comes on we think medical devices will ben fits over the long all >> i want to go to an area that interested me in my notes that you think based on where interest rates are and valuations have gone that the

total return for equities both u.s. and international will be higher over the next decade than you would have predicted some months ago tell us why. >> you hit on it part of that has been the fact that valuation, the market is not as over valued as you think. if you believe in a long term recovery despite its pace that is going to reward equity investors. now we sit here today. i think the longer you look out, there's parts of the market that had not nearly participated as much as technology >> kevin, final question to you, what is gold telling you at over 2,000 an ounce >> gold is telling you that we

had negative real yields in the u.s. and that people are lock lo -- looking for way to get some appreciation that's why gold is rallying. once we get yields back to positive territory, you'll see gold come down the knock on gold has been you can't -- you're not going to get any income because it doesn't have income. however, that's out the window now because we had negative real yield. >> thanks very much. kelly. let's get to ford's jim hackett stepping down and being replaced by chief operating officer jim farley his plan has failed to impress investors. let's get to phil with more on this surprising leadership change >> we talked a lot about jim hackett's inabilities to get

ford on the right track to get fo -- the past three years jim joined ford in 2007. he's 58 years old. on today's concerns got he got right to the point does ford realize how quickly it has to transform itself. >> i'm feeling fantastic about our ability to compete with new competitors. i took almost a year out of the core business to really learn about technology in these new competitors. i'm saying that from perfect perspective of learning and listening to these new competitors themselves

>> he says i want to fix our issues better product launches. the last one was a disaster. warranty costs have to come down i want to generate demand. the bronco suv is the perfect example. come out with more products that say i like what i'm seeing and set ambition goals pu he also wants to get margins in north america back above 10% which they have not been at. the bottom line is jim farley realizes the urgency of the situation at ford and that's one reason why you see the stock moving higher today. investors like ha they are hearing. >> it's interesting because it's not like the out going ceo doesn't understand the automotive transformation that was under way.

>> where is this company going you heard bill ford today saying jim did a phenomenal job of setting this company on the right path to transforming itself that may be the case the flip side of that is that this industry is moving very quick. they haven't moved quick enough to say we can compete and we can win. >> one more kind of question in this vain is he didn't clearly articulate where ford was going. if the new ceo feelslike he ha to really say something very clear about how different this company is going to be, does that imply an acquisition at some point >> i think what it does show is that jim farley will be aggressive he's not going to wait around. he's going to be somebody that will take decisive action. that doesn't mean he's going to be wreckless but you will see

ford move much faster than we have seen it move over the last three years. >> interesting i think the most widely owned stock on robinhood thanks very much for bringing us that news today. energy leading the market while financials and health care are the only two sectors in the red. we'll have more. this stock went from a 52-week low to an all time high in a few months as the company helps power the e-commerce boom. the ceo of zebra technologies will join us right after this break. [ thunder rumbles ]

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universal orlando resort. buy now and get two days free at the parks. restrictions apply.

the company manufacturers bar codes and scanners for warehouses offering solutions to companies as large as amazon across several industries. the past year it's been the second best performer. they beat on second quarter earnings last week and it's poised to benefit as more customers adapt their products and solutions in response to the pandemic it's great do have you here. welcome. >> bar codes, qr codes and more is driving your business >> all of those things what we really do for our customers is help them to

digitize and automate their central workloads. that goes across retail, health care, transportation and manufacturing. >> we're kind of seeing the front end peefs that, which is i love the names what are you really selling to companies. if you take example of retail we help to drive e-commerce. we drive omni channel. if you think of big trend that's happened here over the last four or five months senince the shutdowns, consumers are excited about buying online and pick up at stores.

>> the nfl is a surprising partner for you. reportedly this includes rfid tags that will help measure pretties to the head i wonder if you'll be using these for covid this year with that organization or any others? >> we're very excited about the relationship we have with the nfl. we have been part neri iner -- partnering with them for six years. we have a few all the data for nex ne nexgen stats we have them on the shoulder pads and footballs too

it's great way the show how we can track for our customers. if two employees get closer than six feet and do contract tracing. somebody who contracts the virus, we could tell who they been in contact with over the last number of days. >> are you seeing a permanent shift higher in terms of what's likely for sales and profitability as a result here because there's so much more -- such a bigger market >> we have seen a number of strong secular trends that were

present. we have seen grocery retailers doing well and the trend around pick up at store has gone from being a niche application to a more mainstream. those trends aren't going away >> thank you so nuch for joining us the stock 80% off its lows almost a 15 billion dollar market cap thanks for telling us more about the company. >> thank you

still ahead, another stock benefitting from the pandemic is fastenal shares of that mask maker are near record highs. the traders will tell us if you can still buy this stock it's not just masks they make. disney expected to report its first quarterly loss since 1984 how much more pain could be ahead for that stock a top anyswi jn alt lloius this piece is talking to me. yeah? so what do you see? i see an unbelievable opportunity.

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welcome back under performing this year but one under the radar stand out catching the attention of wall street fastenal the stock is up 30% this year.

hitting an all time high yesterday. sales for its safety products including goggles and masks on the ride it saw 114% jump in second quarter sales for safety products let's bring in trading nation team to discuss. mark, you're seeing a rise in cases, will that continue to fuel more demand for fastenal safety products and is this a buy? >> i would say for a very short period of time it was great quarter for these guys many my opinion, i think it's unsustainable. they saw huge growth by selling more safety products and for them, that offset declines in pretty much all of the rest of their businesses.

if you want to play a true industrial rebound, honeywell is the answer it's a multi-industry industrial it's best balance sheet in the sector it's got some issues when we see a good company surrounded by controversial, we view that as a good buying opportunity. >> there's hand full of industrial companies that specialize in personal protective equipment where would you place your bets? >> it's an interesting company they did diversify into safety products

sales are up 10% of last quarter. driven by safety business segment. it's 116% growth that is carrying the lagging division. trading 30 times next year's earnings they show a lot of insight into what's happen ing in the economy it's the best in breed industrial distributor they have been raising the dividend great long term value. i woinuldn't give up quite kwey. >> head to our website for more realtime analysis and we're on twitter. kelly, back to you up next, it's time for our weekly special tilman tuesday business continues to struggle it's good to see him again

business continues to struggle amid the pandemic. we'll ask why things could go from bad twors o worst.

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welcome back here is your cnbc news update at this hour. isaias has sped up as it nears new york city. it's moving at 40 miles an hour. sustained especially winds have weakened a bit in delaware the gusts were strong enough to blow over tractor trailers in florida the death toll from covid-19 had gone above 7500 officials reporting 245 new fatalities today just short of last friday's record new cases rose even though state run testing sites have been

closed due to the tropical storm. uber is telling its employees they can continue working from home until next june it's not a mandate employees can return before if their offices reopen you can go to cnbc.com for more on that story. in manila, public transit has been shutdown as part of a new lockdown due to coronavirus. police check points ensure that only private and government vehicles are on the roads. curfews are also being reinstated in some areas you are up to date that's the news update back to you. the dow is still hanging on a slight gain. remember gold hit over $2,000 for the first time earlier today. bond yields are at fresh record

lows the oil market is closing up for the day. let's go over to frank at the commodity desk for more. >> oil finishing higher today with wti up. brent crude up about half a percent. the price action is really helping energy the best performing sector in the s&p today. the moves build oen yesterdn ye gain surrounding positive manufacturing data that said, rising supply in fear offense of a resurgence are capping gains given the potential impact on fuel demand back over the you. frank, for the hospitality business, the month of july was supposed to be one of the best in months but for tilman and his landry's suite of restaurant, businesses still down roughly

50% and he's worried when the calendar hits in september, when it hits september things could go from bad to worse joining us from his weekly pulse check on business and the economy is tilman. he's the ceo of landry's welcome back i'm going to start by talking about the houston rockets. let's talk about something that's going really well i watched the game against the mavericks. it's 150 to 148 in overtime. then they beat the bucks they are off to a great start. they play portland tonight the question about your team, to me, is when they come up against a team with a big man in the middle, like the lakers, who have two of them, what are they going to do? how will they win the rebounding

war? >> well, we're not we're going to get a good test we're going to get a really good test tonight and thursday night because tonight we play portland who starts two seven footers and brings another one off the bench. then we play the lakers on thursday night you got to remember, we got out rebounded the other day by 29 rebounds i don't know if that's a record but it's got to be to win a game and get out rebounded by 29. what's happening is we have got to shoot 37 to 38% from threes we also tied an nba record for most threes, but at the same time remember this, big guys are not as quick as little guys. james harden had six steals the other night. at the end of the game you saw our small guys and our small ball, you know, maneuvers and able to get the ball and make quick plays and deflect balls. there's a reason they play small ball and baseball sometimes.

the next two nights are going to be really great tests against portland and lakers. we're excited about it it's definitely a different brand of basketball and if we do pretty good in the next few games, i think it will tell you where the rockets are going to end up at the end of this year so far it's looking really good. >> so far so good. it's been exciting i have to say i think the nba apart from the idea that so far they have not had covid break outs at all, they have produced those television games brilliantly and the camera angles are good. you see the game from a different perspective. it's cool to watch >> it's truly amazing and i haven't been to orlando yet because the protocols are so strong even for me as an owner

to go down there and go to a game to sit behind glass. we have to be tested and tested and wear mask during the game. i'm not going be able to have a drink and jump up and cheer and go nuts like i like to do. >> you >> right now i'm watching it from home. from getting down there and using a new camera angle where we're running a camera up and down court and you're seeing a different angle and the way the production is, if you don't think about it, you forget that you're not playing in front of fans there's so much going on behind you. you feel like you're watching practice where in the nba you know you're watching a basketball >> that camera that runs along

the courts, you feel like you're in a court side seat watching the guys running along with the camera you have two of the most electrifying players in the game westbrook can rebound. >> i hope your son is happy now. i hope your son is happy now that the nba is back >> he will have torn loyalties on thursday. i warn you you were expressing your opinion that the one thing you needed was straight talk from municipal officials and governors as to what the parameters would be to allow your businesses to reopen. have you made any progress on that it's a responsible request tell me where the dpogoal postse and i'll get there >> they don't know where the

goal posts are i've said this before and i'm going to say it again governors and mayors and a lot of these cities and states are not feeling the pain they are still getting their paycheck every week or every two weeks. we all live in our own financial silo and if you're not feeling the pain, you can't make good decisions. you're sitting there in new york and cases are so down and they won't let us open our restaurants at 25%, it's totally rick because you know what, mayor de blasio and governor coco coumo are getting their paycheck every single week. they're not worried about my hourly employees who aren't getting money or my salaried employees who are on furlough and can't get the $600 because

these selfish accomplishes are g -- politicians are getting their paychecks every week they're not going to open anything up and not worried about anything else. >> let's talk about what happens, fair point. i guess you could go to the state legislatures or the congress and say, you got to take a pay cut here. if you're operating at 25%, why don't they take a 75% pay cut. if your revenues are half of what they were, why not that it's fair point. leets let's go do what happens in the fall i think about these businesses, restaurants where you're having outdoor dining in some parts of the country that can continue well up until almost christmas and beyond. in a lot of the country, north of the mason-dixon line for sure, those outside dining areas will go away

right. that's why we need to handle the cases. we need to run this through the kplunts. the people that are susceptible need to be more careful. you cannot -- our country is staying in a recession i told y'all a few months ago, everybody needs to forget this v recove recovery it's not happening we have dug ourselves into a hole and it will take us a long time to get out of it. a lot of us are doing business because we're in leisure markets. what's going to happen come september 15th, there are no con vengs. you see the airlines are furloughing everybody because they are looking in advance into

bookings and realizing the hotels are looking into the future into the fall there's no conference business there's no convention business and there's no business travel and your leisure traveler will be gone. >> how long for your businesses until we get back to '19, 2019 levels or early '20 levels >> i'll sit there and when i want to be optimistic, i say 22. that's if we had a vaccine we have everything opened up again. i showed y'all a chart a few month ago and i said june of '22, exactly two years from now. i'm beginning not to think that anymore.

it take gaming and hospitality to around 15 or '16 to catch up with those numbers when you take a big dip, it takes a long time to get back to normal there's so many unemployed people there's so much capital expenditures that build jobs for new development. all the construction employees that it takes a long time to catch up again >> i've been thinking about how critical the economy the american school system is. if the school isn't open, workers can't go to work, right? >> 100%. i'm chairman of the board of regents for the university of houston and have been for years. i was on the phone with our chancellor this morning who is one of the truly top chancellors in the united states we have a huge system with over

100,000 students and five campuses we don't know what to do when it comes to what do we do with all these employees that are on the peripheral from parking to ho e housing. not necessarily the professors but everybody else it's a huge issue. parents can't go to work we're already trying to figure out what we're going to do with all of our employees that -- these poor single mothers and these single dads are both parents work how will you teach your kids and also keep your job that goes back to your politicians only thinking about their selfish selves and not making tough decisions and saying we've got to make tough decisions and you the school districts have got to find way to have separation for the students but these kids have got to go back to school because you have totally screws up mentally

and physically and economically the united states if our school children cannot go back to school >> thank you we appreciate your time. i'll be watching your team and my favorite broadcaster. see you. good luck. >> thank you coming up, two things you need to live your heart and the sun we'll explain. also, disney is reporting after bell e would say earnings but it's expected to post its first loss in 36 years. is the worst even over given everything we're just discussing power lunch will be right back how long will this last? am i prepared for this? are we prepared for this? with fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice and tailored recommendations, with access to tax-smart investment strategies designed to help you keep more of what you've earned

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welcome back time now for power movers and we begin with polo ralph lauren the company lost more than expected sales were shy of estimates. sales were down 64%. the stock was only down 5% today. solar edge technologies are soaring to a new all time high after beating on earnings and refr knew. it -- revenue it's been an out performer this year gains are up more than 5% today. we end with irhythm technologies they make heart monitors according to analyst it seems reimbursement rates will be higher than expected look at stocks move. it's up more than 30% as a result today ty thank you. to the bond market rick tracks the action for us. hi, rick >> good afternoon.

pretty much every maturity outside of 20 and 30-year bonds establish new low closing yields as a matter of fact, two year, three year, 7-year and 10-year have included in the range levels should they close that would be new all time yield closes it's almost getting to be daily event. it isn't just here look at a 20-year chart. it's 7 basis points. won't find a lower yield on that chart or any chart we have dropped close to 9%. that's a huge number in any period of time tyler, back to you >> a question or two as a follow up, any catalyst you see for these moves today.

something finally pushed gold over the mark. >> i think it's cumulative the closer we get to school times, i think that really cements home the notion of how long the economy could be in a quagmire i think this is starting to sink in the market is grasping that. >> well said thank you. we appreciate it take a look at the four tech trilli trillionaires. seemingly every one piles into those stocks up next, we look at stocks that aren't as universally loved. stay witus ♪ you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion.

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the nasdaq hitting an all time high today. investors of all age groups agree on at left one thing -- big tech but kate rooney is now looking at the differences between what boomers and millennials are buying this should be interesting, kate >> tyler, that's right big tech is still a fan favorite but there is less consensus among generations when it comes to some other sectors. babyboomers age 56 to 74 tend to hold more shares of traditional pharmaceutical companies that's according to a new report from apex clearing abbott labs, bristol-myers squib and merck are in the top but they didn't make the list for millennials.

those ages 24-39 meanwhile were "more notably eager than older generations" to buy the pandemic driven dip in travel stocks. cruise line, royal caribbean and spirit airlines landed in the top half of millennials' list of favorite stocks. for boomers, the beaten down travel names not in the top 100. there was one pharma name that millennials is buying, moderna:that stock made the list for the first time coming in at number 4 number 40. all about big tech, apple, amazon, tesla, microsoft and facebook are among the top five for both generations analysts say this is helped by a rise in fractional trading making some of the $1,000 stocks a bit more accessible. back to you. >> you know, kate, i wonder whether the historical experience of boomers plays a big role in this because as a babyboomer, i lived through the double dip recession of '81 and '82 and into '83.

i lived through the dot-com bust bubble and bust, 9/11, 2008 and 2009 so we've been knocked around a lot and seen our wealth go up and down and up and down and up and down it's -- so no wonder we tend to go maybe with more traditional blue chip names. long question, what do you think? >> that's right. the more conservative they are and the idea that older generation that were babyboomers, for example, might see this as a buying opportunity because they have the historical knowledge of, you know, stocks will will go up again at some point. i want to buy here there is other research that gen-z, for example, lists other reasons for buying stocks besides things like buying the dip. but you're right about that in terms of the historical context. >> i take it i would fit into the older generation, kate you and i need to have a

conversation, my friend. >> i don't know about that >> thanks a lot. kel. >> i >> no comment it was a magical quarter for disney parks were shut down mo movie theaters were empty how bad will it be when disney reports? we'll dive into that next. you can always watch or listen to us live on the cnbc app we'll be right back.

shares of disney are down 20% this year as they deal with delayed film releases and lack of sports. they expect to post the first quarterly loss since 1984. let's bring in our analyst what is the expectation for tonight? would you say the bar is pretty high, pretty low walk me through what you'll be looking for. >> yeah. i

i'd say it's pretty low there is not a lot that disney can say about the market activity that you mentioned, film production is shut down parks are operating through a pretty unique time and the return of live sports is largely out of disney's control. i think they'll try to speak to some of the things that are in their control. but probably not try to provide any, you know, sort of false sense of certainty about what the next few months are going to look like. >> yeah. that said, we all remember just what was it 18 months ago, 12 months ago when disney was doing everything right the stock was beloved. it was all going in their favor. now just the complete opposite so as an investor, what do you do do you dump the stock because of the pandemic or do you buy it at these levels saying i have to wait three or five years but the same factors that contributed to the success before will contribute to the success once again? >> yeah. i think it's a little bit of both i think for investors that can be patient, this is undoubtedly a great opportunity to own disney

the stock was making highs of around $150 not so long ago. and so the question is what's changed? and the answer is coronavirus. it has changed a lot of things and so when there's an end to the pandemic, which is to say when there is a vaccine that is deployed, then disney should be returning to that level of earnings power that it had before i think for those investors though with a little shorter duration horizon, you have to acknowledge that like a lot of other stocks that have been severely impacted by the pandemic, this one probably isn't going to start going back up to those normalized levels until its operations can return back to normal >> yep you have a $118 target on it steven, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> tyler, speaking of the lack of live sports, nadal just pulled out of the u.s. open. covid-19 concerns. >> and i believe the number one woman in the world pulled out as well a week or so ago, correct

>> then you have the indy 500. p penske was going to do it with a crowd and today they said no crowd. >> what's been going on in baseball i don't know how they're going to sustain it with all the game they now have to make up, i hope that they just stop right here and declare the yankees the world series winner. >> i bet you do. >> if it can't be the nats, it has to be the yankees. "closing bell" starts right now. there is a tall fellow standing right over there >> right here. welcome to the "closing bell," everyone i'm with sara eisen. stocks off the highs of the day. the s&p 500 and nasdaq just slipping into the red with 59 minutes left of the session. have a hook at what is driving the action today lawmakers divided over the next round of coronavirus stimulus with negotiations on going gold prices continue to rise hitting a new record high above $2,000 an ounce. the ten year yield flirts with falling below 0.5% the we did see the second straight monthly increase in factor