high-quality industrial quality. farmer jim >> alaska airlines doesn't need the government support, but it will benefit from it. >> josh, lastly to you >> i'm a buyer thanks, everybody. thank you, scott welcome, everybody here's what's ahead of us. markets are in a wait-and-see motor with the job reports just around the corner. plus, will the u.s. ever go back to pre-covid levels of oil production not cork to one ceo. as rates plunge and the market tries to jump, we talk about that, a facebook hotline,

and still buying in bulk it's all ahead in "rapid fire. we begin with the markets. mr. chu has the number. >> how do you know me so well? for right now, though, some of the story lines we are following involve the modest gains we're seeing in the market now green across the screen. it's not massive, but still about 2%,ing about one tenth of a gain for the s&p 500 a third of a percent gain for the nasdaq remember, that's been the real outperformer as of late right now. we'll see if the trends continue one key area to watch. we haven't talked a lot about recently, because we've been so focused on technology is what's happening with transportation stocks maybe even the market. this particular etf that tracks transportation companies is now up roughly around 55% from their covid-19 low levels. the reason why it's important,

this is at the highest levels we've seen since february. we'll see if that sticks around as well as a theme then to end things off one of the companies that's seen a surge has companies like fastly this is a stock that back in may rallied up around 455% because of some of the optimism. it's one to watch, though, down 18% after a massive move higher. back over to you. >> that's been one of the best performers lately markets focus on the tomorrow's jobs report after adp number showed that job growth slowed in july. she said, as of mid july over half of district contacts said they are reducing employment or

employee compensation, cancelling planned expect tur and more the latest survey from recruiter.com says things aren't as bad as you might thing. joins me is the ceo of recruiter.com. evan, great to have you. welcome. >> thank you so much for having me how would you describe the labor market in anticipation of what the labor department is likely to tell us. >> for the recruiter index, sentiment turned down a bit from 3.3 in june to 3.1 in july it stands markedly higher on the subsequent economic shutdown 42.6% of recruiter now say that covid-19 is greatly affecting their recruiting activities, a significant increase from the 16.3% in june, and does market the end of our third month over month increase likely due to the case rate reporting from vare

yes, sir states. >> we had climb up to 3.3, now slipping back some, but not dramatically also average number of open roles per recruiter is down to 15 from 20 in june still the lowest point in april was 12 the picture you're painting matches up with what a lot of data is telling us, which is that the economy maybe hasn't lost a ton of momentum, but has stalled out. and in the labor markets case, it moved a little bit back i don't know if you do an actual pinpoint forecast for what that would likely mean, but what directionally does that tell you? >> i get so many questions from the wall street, what's going to happen, what's going to happen you know, the interesting thing is if we look at the april number and our index is an average of both the -- so the low was really in april.

in may it jumped to 3.0. now we're back to 3.1, so it is a decline, but not a cliff really not a cliff at all. if you look at the nest 30 days, 77.8% of the recruiters believe they're going to stay sable orring in, and the next 90 days predict overall demand will improve. i think all in, it's at a slower raid than we saw last month. you reported a lot of recruiters see setbacks as moment tear. is that just wish much thinking?

or are they it telling us that the commit is more resilient than we imagine? >> so i think when you look at recruiter, when are you using a recruiter? we look at our network of rear crewers, and the jobs they are involved in are either what we would call revision, or find me assert i have types of individuals, more on the temporary staffs both of those numbers are increases. >> well, you know, it's my two cen cents. >> we'll get it out as soon as possible evan, good to see you. thank you very much. >> kellie, thank you so much let's get to the latest in washington, where the stimulus

sta stalemate continues. butting heads right here on cnbc earlier. let's listen. >> the democratic house put together a $3 trillion basically liberal wish list that we think goes far beyond what is appropriate for this situation. >> around70,000 people have died while mr. mcconnell pressed the pause button will we find a solution? we will. will we have an agreement? we will. here to talk about it is stephanie miller good to see you again. i thought at first everybody agreed on the $1200 checks to people and it was a matter of hammering it out i don't know if there's any agreement. it sounds like the president could do as much as he possibly could, and the market aren't pushing them, it feels, for more

of a response. how do you think it plays out? >> it's so interesting i have covered a number of these very big policy pieces of legislation moving through congress wall street is sick and tired of the fighting, so this feel like it's not going to get done, feels like more of the same from washington i think the real question is will this actually not get done? or will they fight up to the very end and come forward with some sort of agreement. >> i see here you still think there will be a bill, by a trillion, trillion and a half in size, roughly done by august 15th again, is all of this just wrangling in public, but we know the broad outlines aid to schools.

>> does mitch manage connell the senate is adjourned with no deal as long as he keeps bringing the senate back, so they were not supposed to be in sex next week, but they are coming back, because a deal is not done i think that signalses to me and to the markets they're not in agreement on the details, but they're willing to keep talking. i think if republicans say tier going to adjourn with no deal, i would expect that to get a lot of people's attention. i'm not expecting that, and i think a lot of people are not. that said, when i speak to people on capitol hill, they're not literally on capitol hill,

but staffers working remotely, and working on the hill, they are not particularly optimistic. that reminds me of previous debates, previous big policy items. so it doesn't leave me overly concerned, but there is a real sense of pessimism in washington right now, which is not to be sort of underestimated. >> i'm glad to hear you say that it kind of fits with how this appears to be evolves. we have the nasdaq over 11,000, basically the. the market does not seem to care if mckanell adjourns without an agreement and we sell off 5%, okay, maybe then we get a big bill, but if that doesn't happen, maybe we don't

is it possible people are not going to get an extension of boosted jobless benefits we won't see he money to the households because the market is saying we don't need it? >> the market is not reconciled with the economy, and i think folks who watch this channel on which and wall street who follows the market regularly knows there's a lot of other things going on. which is sort of removed, but i'm looking at some polling right now, and only one in ten people according to an economist poll from about a week ago say they don't want something to happen if 90% of the country is telling consequence to act, i think they really have to act all right. we'll leave it on that note. thank you so much. appreciate it. stephanie miller on the latest

as investors await these two developments, they're not exactly clamoring for more aid the nasdaq is above 11,000 the dow and s&p are up for a fifth straight session joining me are the chief investment officer of sierra mutual funds and first question to both of you, terry you first, what would the market do if there wasn't going to be a stimulus deal in washington >> if there isn't a stimulus package bill, i think that's not what's expected. we have gone from the lower unemployment rate in 50 years for the highers in 90 years. i think congress really needs to act.

seepe sandy, do you agree with that? >> i do. i would be waiting and enjoying that, looking floored to p ining more money to work >> tell me what areas you think are not cheap never for you right now? where do you still see good opportunities? >> we're sort of avoiding -- you look at the s&p, we're sort of avoiding those names we want to find younger, cheaper, things that could -- just smaller we're looking at several areas in the health care industry. in fact, we've got a couple ideas, and even the casino space that we think will be risky over the very short run, but could

make our clients a lot of money. teleflex, ligen pharmaceuticals are on your list ter terri, what do you think >> that's the stay at home -- the people who are ordering sanitizer on amazon or binge ing on "brie the bad." so we're looking for a barbell strategy before i lose your audience, as well as municipal bonds i think could be an interesting trade. they're doing well, the economy is picking back up.

>> i think we talk about muni bonds in the back half of the show i appreciate you both joining us today. coming up we'll also talk some oil it's trying to climb out of its rut, but one ceo says we will never pump as much as pre-covid. this on the day that mortgage rates plunge to a new record low we're going to look into this company and the ipo ahead. the real story behind nikola's very small quarterly revenue it's all coming up on quarterbac"the exchange." ♪ come on in, we're open. ♪

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welcome back they reported mixed second quarter results, the stock is still down about 40% on the year it missed the street's revenue estimates, but will u.s. oil production ever recover back to pre-covid levels my next guest is not so sure matt gallagher is the president and ceo of parsley energy.

why is this a threshold we may never reach again? >> it took tremendous amounts of capital to reach that 13 million barrels a day. it was great for the u.s. economy, great for the citizens of the u.s., but we have these steep declines in the shale profile. when you pull back that investment, which we had to do as an energy in the face of negative oil pricing, that's what we've seen. it got down to 10 million barrels a day. >> it's interesting if you take it from the view we want something that's great for the national interests, and you're saying we might not have that again, but we need a viable energy industry, and i guess you can't have it all? >> that's right. now we have to deliver on financial results, not just growth for the country's or industry's strength, so we're

shifting to deliver on fundamental drivers that make they industry a compelling investment. >> using some of the industry jargon there that investors are focused on so using you as a case study, tell me how much production is down, and how your investment plans are changing as a result >> sure. coming into this price war that we saw last quarter, we took 20% of our production proactively off-line that has rebounded, so we are flat now we think we can keep our production at 110,000 barrels a day. we see it keep it flat when there's spare capacity in the globe, we don't need extra barrels on the globe right now but longer term, that could go into a mid to high single-digit

growth when that supply/demand is needed again from the u.s. >> if you guys are basically flat, and we have seen some bankruptcy, but correct me if i'm wrong, is every company just giving up a bit? is it that we're not grow? has the shakeout, is it over it or does it still need to come >> the big jolt is likely over you're going to see some fringe and some follow-through bankruptcies most likely, but of course those assets go into other hands and the production is monitored either through those teams or others. so the big part of the decline i think is over. it's stabilization from here, and then, as opec brings back on their barrels over the course of the next 12 months, that's where the majority of the growth will come they have about 10 million, 11 million barrels a day, going to

about 9 million off-line about a month from now >> where do you think the oil price will be, your best guess, by the end of the year >> all else being equal we're seeing a 40 to 45 range. if it spikes up, you'll probably see a bit of demand impact people are very sensitive to the price at the pump, as they should be. so in that range, and of course we budget at parsley a $35 oil range. >> in many ways a new normal for the industry matt, thanks for joining me to talk about it. >> thank for having me, kelly. if you're looking to take a dip in a new backyard, think again. plus our quiet climber today, the best performing, non-microcap stock on the planet we'll tell you what it is. you can always listen to us

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welcome back to "the exchange." we're in a bit of a holding pattern, waiting for washington to hand out the next round of stimulus, waiting for the jobs report dow is up just off the session highs. nasdaq is still over 1,000 the sector board shows me not huge movers. while health care is actually the weakest sector today with about a 1% decline some individual movers, shares of uber are higher, but that's not all investor are waiting on. we're waiting from a key ruling from a california judge on whether uber has to treat its

drivers as employees 20 state attorneys general say facebook needs to offer live responses in terms of a hotline. look at this shares are up nearly 6% today. and roku is lower. they don't expect recovery until well into 2021, so a bit of a disappointment for investors there. let's get to sue herera for our cnbc news update ohio governor mike dewine has tested positive for the coronavirus. the test was done as part of routine screening, because the governor was scheduled to greet president trump after he landed in cleveland he has no symptoms, will you will self-service isolate. portland police have

delivered riot conditions two nights in a row. capital one will pay $80 million to a u.s. regulate after a data breach was suffered last night. the bank was fined to identify risks as it moves its it operations to the cloud. lebanon's customs department says one of the main security agencies reported to the cabinet in the past year about the dangers from explosive chemicals being stored at beirut's port. 2750 tons of amon numb nitrate were left sitting in a warehouse for years despite warnings from officials. we see the results there with that massive explosion you are up to date kelly, back to you. sue, thank you let's get to today's quiet climber. we are looking at it sea, with

the ticker symbol se it's down about 5% today let's dive into it it's an internet and mobile -- based in singapore. sea was founded in 2009, we aren't public in 2017 performed of single stock in the past year its market cap is now nearly $69 billion. it's up 435% from the 52-week low. its annual low was about $26 as you can see behind me, we're now back to 138. coming up, will record low rates and volume boost rocket shares while it's, does facebook need a hate speech hotline? join us for "rapid fire" right after this

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welcome back let's catch up on a few stories. it is time for rapid fire. here to break down the headlines are robert frank, leslie picker and dom chu. welcome, everybody first topic is the ipo of the day, the rocket companies. they debuted in the public market, but not exactly rocketing higher they priced at 18. that was below the target range and the ipo comes on the same day you think all of these positive things yesterday it was

bigcommercial, biggest ipo of the year. >> and rackspace. >> rackspace was kinnell of a dog, but what's going on with quicken? a big part of is is valuation. bankers says they can bevalued like a tech company. they had to take that down a notch, and given the size and scale of it, it had to work, so they had to price it a bit lower. >> ebitda, we're being to talk about nikola you know, they have $36,000 in

revenue -- >> not much shm-ebitda what investors want is a lack of earnings, lack of a business model. the problem that quicken had is they had too many earns. they had $900 million, a growth of 36% and a 35-year-old company. so they had a proven track record of making money, which disqualifies you from being valued as a tech company. >> way too boring, dom >> i good es when you're in a establish business and you're the biggest player out there, there's no premium you pay for i looked at this as more of a commentary on what the future of mortgages will be like i don't know how robust you could see things if rates are just held at such a low level for an extent the period of time remember, for a company like

quicken they're not playing interest rate spreads. they don't actually hold the mortgages on these books they end up selling them off they're trying to make like a transaction fee on this. >> see, that's boring. >> that's boring i'm not sure how much more up side there is. let 'talk about nikola documents from the company's first company reradio el the origin of its only source of revenue. it found out the chairman paid $36,000 for a solar installation it did plunge about 10% yesterday. robert, it's up about 11% since going public, was that back in june despite not generating revenue these are two great kind of bookends to the market we're in. >> this company doesn't have a product. had has a plan, but no business. i like this model of recycled

wealth of the chairman as earnings, because really the only one that seems to be really benefiting for right now is trevor martin, and he has become a billionaire. i guess the only revenue came from installing solar panels, and maybe he has a $32 million ranch, maybe he can pay people to do some ranching, but this seems to be the only source of revenue. >> he's reinvesting, just in a different way. >> yeah, it's like the task rabbit of spaks now. matt levine set he wouldn't be surprised if kodak reported of revenue of $4.99, because they developed one roll of film for their founding u. just a joke on this idea of you see all of this excitement surrounding they

companieses, kodak obviously does have revenue, but funny nonetheless. >> certainly the success of its cars, because look at what that company is worth now look at how space elon musk's project launched, you know, private astronauts landed them successfully people go, you know what i'm willing to take a flyer, because maybe these guys will go out there and change the world. >> this is the take that matters. this is the one that you just said after everything we have talk about right now, nobody said the word tesla that's why they're bidding up nikola it's the reason why -- and still have the promise of making a lot of stuff down the line when you look at nikola, people are saying if i could get half, maybe 20% of what the tesla run was like over the last 7, 8 years, this will be worth it

then you throw in solar installations in there it almost feels like they have gone through a template to make themselves tesla versus 2.0. >> except they're not electric vehicles that doesn't seem to be getting across to the investors. >> more unproven in tesla's case, it wasn't a essy let's talk about the a.g. of washington, d.c. who are calling on the company to do more to deliver hate speech. they want public third-party audits, stronger blocking tools and a way for facebook users to complain in real time. it's almost like facebook needs its own police force to deal with this. >> they kind of already do, but it's online. what these attorneys general are

wanding is a phone line when you can reach someone immediately and say there's hate speech, i see it, take it down in facebook's defense, they did screen or block or get rid of 9.6 million pieces of content in the first quarter. so they are policing this stuff. you know, in terms of the phone line, try getting anyone on a phone from any company these days it's impossible. i don't know that it would improve it that much, but facebook certainly has the money and resources to do it if they wanted to. >> dom, i'mcurious about the resources. we know they already have thousands and thousands of both employees going through content, and it makes sense if you see something, you want facebook to deal with it immediately, but again a lot of these cases might not be black and white, but gray how does facebook take the time to go through and figure that out? >> that's the billion, maybe even trillion dollar question at

this point the idea is if you have a situation where you're the arbiter, the actual judge and enforcement for particular types of speech, it's going to be up on you to make sure you are the ones to live up to that expectations for you and your shareholders there's a broad are social good that takes it down, but of course facebook comes under all kinds of pressure and fire for exactly what constitutes that kind of behavior if you are going to regulate that, then my personal feeling is you should have facebook do what they are going to do, and thin customers and shareholders and everybody also should act the way they'll act in response. with this particular move, i'm not sure it sets up well for facebook they have to deal with the idea that they have to deal with controversy and this is going to be something that's not going away anytime soon. >> the shares are up another 6% today, just incredible let's talk about pool sales as well. we are making a huge splash,

because people -- one company says customers are waiting three weeks to talk about installations for 2021 >> i mean, i'm not going to lie, kelly, if i could installed a pool in a high rise, i might be on the phone, getting a the waitlist as well, but it speaks to the broader dynamic people are looking for unique ways to be outside, to be together with their family in lieu of other things they used to do, go on vacation and out to eat in restaurants peloton has a waitlist as well people are trying to find new ways to exercise what's interesting is, by the time these companies do get their supply chains in and are able to deliver pools, pelotons, will we see an end to the pandemic or potential summer that would inhibit the actual sales and getting rid of that 1/2 tire. >> what's interesting, they said in suburnen new jersey, it used

to be the homes with a pool were not selling, and of course now it's the complete opposite people don't even care what the house looks like. >> i was talking to brokers today about why the suburbs are doing so well, what people are buying the pool is the number one criteria right now for people in westchester, rural connecticut, parts of the hamptons. it makes sense, the community pools are closed, a lot of beaches and lakes are closed kids can't go to summer camp, so it's the one thing you can do where they can get some exercise they can cool off a bit. it's hard to find houses with existing pools trying to get one built from a regulatory community board approval, let alone finding a builder who can do it, is tough. >> ken, you cannot get a bike in town. >> can't find a bike anywhere. i'm not saying that people are going to steal bikes, but clearly there's a secondary matter for this stuff. we have to talk about dom's

favorite subject, costco the comp sales in july were up 13%. we would expect them to get a boost, but wall street, that was more than double what they were expecting e we also saw a jump in digital sales shares up 17% this year. it's interesting to compare them with the other ones. we were having a debate, which would you rather -- costco or bj's >> i think it's a factor of where you can find a costco versus a bj's versus a sam's they have so many locations through the country. i've been to costco twice in the last week and a half, because there's two within a 10 to 15-minute drive of me. that makes it more accessible. what he did find interesting is the traffic anecdotally has definitely increased i went on a weekday afternoon

after an early shift here, and it was amazing to me how many people were shopping at 1:00 or 2:00 in the afternoon on a monday or tuesday. to me that speaks volumes about the brand proposition that costco has it doesn't price me at all that it's doing well. >> the top two items are frozen food and liquor. that's where we're at in america right now. >> if you ever look at the monthly thing they send, you can get a hot tub, patio furniture, exercise equipment. >> and a pool? can you get a pool >> if you can't get a pool, get a hot tub or an inflatable pool. >> exactly if you look at where they saw the biggest increase, it was the largest areas, southeast, south, texas, so it's not surprising people would stock up they're looking to buy in bulk >> you know what i still do? i did it this week, and people

know what i'm talking about. i ran into a couple fans they were surprised i still go for the rotisserie chicken. >> how could you not >> the rotisserie chicken is great. >> it's the best out of any grocery store chain or anything. >> if you left without one, dom, i think people should be complaining. you can't go and leave without one of the rotisserie chickens thank you all today. we really appreciate it. still ahead, as people stay home and shop online dhl has seen a surge, and the demand helped put their earnings in top share as we head to break here are some of the names touching all-time highs "the exchange" will be right back

welcome back the pandemic may have fractured global supply chains, but it's been a windfall for dhl.

our frank holland spoke to the ceo a short time ago. >> shares of dhl reporting higher after beating estimates for the world's largest shipper. e-commerce exploded during the pandemic here in the u.s. more than 85% of the deliveries outside of north america, dhl said it jumped from 40% to 60% of volume year over year dhl the's ceo says the softening u.s. dollar is also boosting demand for domestic products >> we're growing in regards to goods, manufacture, developed, u.s. made goods going out total world. it's growing double digits. >> a response to the increased volume, they are testing robotics in miami to speed up

package processing they're also using pop-up shops like this one in washington, d.c., giving customers contactless drop-off and pick up, and also coveritesting carge in miami >> you get an improvement based on the fact that you're going quicker to your stops, you're not having to find an appropriate parking space, not having to back up. you're able to transact and do much more horizontally and vertically. >> dhl is forecasting its business will grow more than 50% the rest of 2020 the company also providing its workers with a more than $350 bonus for working during the pandemic 80% of its employees are frontline workers. >> that's fascinating. it kind of gets to me question,

which is how much of this kind of boo of boon do we expect for this to last for dhl >> well, i asked them the same thing, with the forecast beyond this the thing they told some h they're clearly ahead of schedule they're also in the process of hiring about 2,000 employees here, boosting the workforce here about i about 20% so a commitment they believe this trend will continue long term. >> that makes sense just accelerating the digitization of the u.s. economy frank, thank you very much still ahead, colleges borrowed heavily from the muni market, with enrollment number dropping, we'll look at how the debt loads have some schools teetering on the financial brink.

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welcome back outstanding public higher education debt surged more than 85% between 2007 and 2017. that out paced all other major muni bond credit as college and universities used it for improvements the college matriculation on the decline and expected to be compoundsed by the pandemic, my next guest says that debt is growing more and more risky by the day. tom, it's food to have you

how many investors might be exposed to this risk without realizing it >> right now, kelly, the higher education constitutes about 7 or 8% of the entire market. there's fair amount of bonds out there. unfortunately, there's an expectation among some investors that the colleges and universities enmass aren't ve v safe investments others will have real problems in the year ahead. >> it reminds me how college university towns were better ratings because they had the stability. they had the steady employment and through the last recession whose hardest hit? whose most at risk >> i think the winners, you'll have winners and losers here the winners will be the schools with the national reputation which will allow them to draw students from the wider gree graphic. that's true for schools in the

northwest and midwest. the democrat graphics are working against smaller clejs who from 1996 to 2016 or 17 have the advantage of the baby boom shadow coming through. >> right now there's about 1400 four-year colleges out there in america. it's probably another 2 or 3,000 that are community colleges. among those small 1400 schools, we haven't picked an actual number but there's a couple of hundred out there that are just basically suffering from this

twin whammy of unfavorable demographics and the call structure. you want to stick with flagship campuses or highly selective private colleges that are likely to ride out the pandemic >> that's pretty stark that a couple hundred colleges could have trouble paying these bills. there's another category that you also warn investors about as being pretty risky and those bonds secured by like privatized student housing. can you explain that >> i should qualify the couple hundred. it will be a couple hundred that will have trouble but they're looking at the fall. that's an important concept. it's not like you'll see 200

rollover but there will a few that will. you will have a couple hundred that are going through some very difficult times. in terms of those with limited security pledges, the ones that are really at risk now are those auxillary revenue bonds. one other sector that's really having some problems in the last six months are privatized student housing sector these are bonds that are by individual rents on kind of privately managed. they will not be on the campus of the school. >> i can imagine this also affects the municipal investments for the communities at large in just a word would you warn investors away from those too.

>> in the broader context, state governments are having their own financial stress and that's likely to continue for a couple of years they will probably reduce aid to local government you may see some of those smaller towns have difficulty as well it's important to go with those particular issuers and municipal market whether it's colleges or municipalities that have accumulated reserves >> thanks for bringing this to our fore front >> my pleasure >> take a look at shares of disney the stock is jumping midday as daniel loeb says he took a new position in the stock. he initiated the long position when the stock sank as invesers began to worry about theme park and movie theaters closures.

he told scott there isn't a close number two rival to disney that does it for the exchange. in the next hour what do hsbc, chipotle and delta have in common we'll tell you stay with us some companies still have hr stuck between employees and their data.

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good afternoon welcome. i'm tyler mathison this is "power lunch." a choppy session for stocks as wall street waits for washington to come together to make a new deal on the next stimulus package. we will tell you where everything stand right now at 2:00 p.m. eastern time