from a new record high it's tuesday, august 11th, 2020, and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with wilford frost and brian sullivan it's great to have both of you here huge news that we are kind of wrangling with on this tuesday morning. take a look at the u.s. equity futures at this hour you're going to see some big gains right out of the gate. it's because the headlines that wolf just mentioned we'll talk more about putin and russia and this potential vaccine for covid in just a moment take a look right now, you're going to see the dow futures indicated up by about 260 points s&p futures up by 21 if we were to open here, that would put the s&p very close to its all-time high.

i think you need about 25 points to get back to the previous record that was set, we're about 25.68 points below it. the s&p futures indicated up by 21 s&p has now been on a seven-day winning streak, and you're looking at the longest winning streak it's seen since april of 2019 nasdaq was down yesterday, but it is indicated up by close to 60 points this morning the dow was up by over 350 points yesterday to kick off the week treasury market this morning, right now you're looking at the ten-year yielding right about where it has been. 0.599% that yield's a little higher than we have been sitting. brian, this news about putin and this potential vaccine is huge, but i think we do need to take it with a grain of salt. you've been all over this already this morning. >> well, trying to make sense of it, becky. good morning as well you have what you think are the markets sort of key points, right? trillions of dollars in

stimulus, potential for payroll tax cuts, all the market themes we've been talking about all day long powering the markets higher seven days in a row. you wake up at 4:00 in the morning, and russia says, oh, by the way, we have a working vaccine. it's been approved by our institute, and i gave it to my daughter says vladimir putin it is a huge developing story. i think, guys, it really -- whether or not you believe or not and there's going to be a lot of scientists that want to see the data what is this vaccine what is it based on? how many doses are available how much does it cost? does the world get it? either way, the market did move a little we were up before the headlines crossed, but it did move a little on this news. and i think, becky, it does call into question what happens on the day and whether that day is today or not, the day the world gets a working vaccine, what happens? what do we do? do we i guess drink some vodka

do we streak down the street i have no idea you know, i might. >> look, here's how i kind of look at this news just from what we've been hearing in the last several months from experts, there is a huge debate here in the united states taking place about whether these potential vaccine candidates should be fast tracked even more and brought directly to the public before it goes through the extensive phase one, phase two, phase three testing. the phase three testing you would normally see, it's a very high bar they want to make sure not only is it safe for people to take but also there is efficacy we heard from dr. anthony fauci there's a real risk that you are not going to see something that has 90% or north in terms of its effectiveness. the fda is now looking at 50% as the floor. if they can get 50% effectiveness, they would think that is great. 60, 75% even better. but you're probably not talking about a vaccine where you have 93% effectiveness like you do with the measles shot.

my guess is -- and this is completely a guess we've got dr. scott gottlieb on in a little bit. we can ask him more about this my guess is the russians have taken a candidate and fast forwarded it without doing a lot of those extensive studies that you're going to see on vaccine candidates here in the united states there are people here in the united states pushing for us to do the very same thing if you talk to some of the more cautious experts, some of the people who look at this, they say, no, we do this for a reason it would be disastrous if you approved a vaccine and it turned out it wasn't safe or didn't work very well, that people would lose faith in vaccination programs it's difficult enough to get people to accept vaccinations and do this. there are more people in the united states who are anti-vaxxers there's a real reason you go through these extensive steps. again, totally a guess but i don't know how they would have had time to do all the testing that we are making sure every

one of the vaccination candidates in the united states have gone through. >> that's just a safety question i think when scott gottlieb does join us in five or ten minutes times one of the questions would be look at the data we've got so far from the u.s. and european triel trials if you could put safety aside, have any of them shown enough effectiveness, enough antibodies or antigens or whatever they're trying to create i'm not sure we're there yet on any of the u.s. data points. to that point, whether it's a safety concern or effectiveness concern with the russian vaccine, i doubt we'll get the data i doubt we'll get the data today but nonetheless the market is reacting the other thing i was going to say quickly is the last two trading sessions we've already seen a very big rotation out of the tech outperformers into cyclicals and the same thing seems to be playing out this morning if you're looking at the european markets, asset classes that are trading like gold gold's down 2% the ten-year is almost back

above 0.of this morni6 this morg it does look like we're going to sea more of those cyclical values outperform this morning >> brian, to your point, it would be amazing if we could see this vaccination. >> that's it you know what's weird? you put out the news -- of course twitter is whatever you want to call it. there's a group of people that doesn't want to believe it i don't know why that is it's like oh, well, it's not real or it's russia. it must be fake. maybe it is fake, who knows. >> i'm not calling this fake news it would not surprise me if this is a real candidate. my only question is is it something that has been rigorously tested. and look, i think it is amazing and your point to what happens to the market when this happens, when you first announced this this morning, i was blow drying my hair listening to it, and when you first announced this i was like oh, my gosh >> what did he say >> this would be so amazing. >> yeah, amazing and one thing

we've all been waiting for i will say just in the last week identi i've been hoping and hanging my hat on this vaccine as a silver bullet, but what i've heard from anthony fauci and scott gottlieb did raise some concerns about how effective this is going to be whether it will be a silver bullet or whether we need to figure out a way to live with this over the next several years as we get better and better medications that can deal with once you get covid making sure you don't come down with the severe symptoms. >> and you heard matthew harrison talk about there's a lot of candidates out there, not just on the vaccine side but on the antibody side, the treatment side, regeneron and others he thinks we could have real candidates by september. september is next month. let me give you a for reasons to be optimistic. the reproduction rate has been held steady. the question i've got for dr. scott gottlieb is this we're starting to get some indications that americans may

be koescloser to herd immunity n we think because t cell reproduction rates have seemed higher in some communities ironically corona, queens, a few weeks ago or a month ago, they found that 25% of the population had developed t cells or antibodies and 25% was not ill indicating that perhaps there is a greater capacity for amazing bodies to skries to generate t antibodies than we think there's a lot of terrible news out there and a lot of families are suffering, but the markets, i think, have looked at the fact 1968, 60 million people got avian flu, 150,000 or so americans ended up dying from that, about 200,000 in today's numbers. no vaccine was ever created for that you can debate whether or not we have a vaccine it still exists in some form, the point is i think the market is at least looked out a year and said life will hopefully be much different and maybe much

more normal than it is right now. that's the optimistic view >> the only other point bringing back to the markets is that european markets were pretty strong before this news crossed. they've added to that strength throughout their trading session, and asian markets also were pretty strong this morning other than china before this news broke so either way you saw quite strong reaction to u.s. -- to the u.s. close yesterday in asia and european markets. >> putin bought calls object dakot o the dax and then released the move. according to reports which is encouraging to all of our points whether this is to be trusted or not we want to bring some other data points as well of course this will be fabulously good news and e with all ho -- we all hope it is true the impact of the pandemic on different parts of the economy retail, simon property group

said it collected about 73% of its rents from retailers in july that's up from 51% in april and may and 69 in % in ujune the company said about 91% of its tenants are back open for business the ceo said he wouldn't comment on a report that said amazon was considering converting some closed stores into distribution hubs the stock closed up 5% on that news yesterday this morning adding a couple percent, 2 or 3% after the earnings report. in the meantime, airline shares surged in yesterday's session after the tsa said that air travel hit the highest volume in nearly five months 831,000 people traveled on sunday alone that's the highest level since march 17th still, tsa traffic is down about 70% from the same time a year ago. labor unions and airline executives have been pushing for $25 billion in council

assistan -- additional service if you take a look at the airline stocks, they're surging once again today after all of the news that we've been talking about this morning and that potential for a russian vaccine because a vaccine would certainly mean that people would feel much more comfortable flying and traveling again american airlines is leading the way among the airline stocks up about 5.7% >> look at that, wow, good stuff there. college football's fall season is in jeopardy. the mid-america conference threw in the towel on saturday, and now the mountain west conference has become the second to postpone until at least next spring they want to play in the spring and i guess again in the fall. the big call is going to be from what they call the power five conferences, the big ten, the pac-12, the acc, et cetera, and that decision is expected as soon as today. it all comes amid a push by some student athletes to keep the season impact.

clemson quarterback trevor lawrence arguing on twitter that the players are just as likely to contract covid where they are sent home to communities where families will be responsible for their medical care and expenses as well. president trump re-tweeted the clemson quarterback ask and said the student athletes have been working too hard for their season to be canceled. #wewanttoplay. you talk about economic debates, and becky, i know you went to rutgers. i with don't virginia tech big football school, you want to have safety first, but let's not -- and i'm not saying they should play. i'm not making the argument one way or the other, but i can tell you this much, the financial status of some of these big schools is going to be blown to smithereens without football not saying we should have it that's not the reason to do it if it's unsafe it's a multibillion dollars industry. >> yeah, but the liability i mean, that has to be what they are making these decisions based on if somebody gets sick, if

somebody takes it home to a parent or grandparent and they either wind up on a ventilator or die, i think the liability i probably why the schools are making these decisions the quarterback's probably right, the idea that these kids are just as likely to come out with it in the community, the question is who's going to be responsible for it and who's liable for what happens in these situations aren't thai juey just postponin to the spring at this point? >> those other conferences were. that's what they were suggesting flu season is november to february or march, right, so that would be -- that would seem to be less likely. but you are right, and you know, this is litigation nation, and everything does come down to that liability issue. >> i'd just say you could have all the players if they really want to play sign waivers, for example, and obviously as you said at the top brian, it all comes back to safety the professional sports haven't been that safe, which would be the deal breaker either way.

i think there's another factor we should all be considering that's the utility that a lot of people, millions and millions of people get from watching it. and that should be considered. i don't think, the peak where is it's a case of there's no ppe there's no testing capacity that means we have to totally prioritize all efforts to go to those people suffering and i think you can weigh things up to say, look, if you can get the sport on millions and millions of people want to see it and that should be also considered, i think, in these decision-making processes. >> did you just say we should not give the ppe and the tests to the people who need it the most because we want sports back >> no, i did not i said we're not at the point where we've run out to an extent where that's not considered. if you were short on those things, then that would apply. clearly there is the ability to -- >> we're kind of short on tests. >> i mean, we have millions and millions and millions of tests and i think it's reasonable --

>> and we have a lot of places where you can't get it and where you're waiting seven days to get them back. >> that's people suffering from the disease. >> no, it -- wolf, you've got areas where they're able to get tests back in a day or two that should be the case. if you can get that anywhere in the nation, then i think you can have the conversation about how we have plenty of tests. if you wait seven days it's completely ineffective because very few people will actually sit around and quarantine and do what they're supposed to do and stay home and wait for that test to come back. >> at the moment, you think there should not be a single bit of sport being played anywhere across the whole world. >> that's not what i said. we have plenty of ppe and plenty of testing i'd like to see more testing around the schools so we can get the schools back in rather than college football i'm thrilled to have major league sports coming back on i think that's great they've got the money and the ability to -- >> what i'm saying becky, which is totally fair and accurate is there is a different hierarchy of things that can be

prioritized. school is one that should be top of the list because it brings huge value to the children and to the parents both economically, morally, socially. similarly sports -- >> and let the kids back in school first. >> of course sports on top of that initially, you know, will bring many more than just the people playing, we're not doing it for their wages. we're not doing it for the tv revenue. we're doing it for the millions of people that will enjoy watching it. there is a hierarchy of things you can prioritize to bring back >> i know we've got to go, a couple quick things. the waivers won't work, wolf, i would just say this. this is the united states and anybody can say, well, i signed it under duress. the whole team signed it i didn't want to sign it i felt like i had to that would sort of rip up that contract if you will i know we've got the president of the university of arizona coming on rlater in the show. if you're able to come back to school, should you also play sports i can tell you this much college

students aren't going to sit in their apartments and not see anybody. i'm just going to make a wild assumption that whether or not you're on the football field or in a classroom or in a bar or a fraternity house, whatever it is, you're going to socialize and not limit -- i'm just making a wild guess about the behavior of college students. >> people will continue to make choices either way. >> yeah. okay, guys, when we come back, we will talk more about that breaking news out of russia overnight. we will ask dr. scott gottlieb about the covid vaccine that was just -- that just received approval by the country's health ministry there. stock futures did pick up steam after that announcement. last we checked we were looking at the dow futures indicated up now by about 277 points. s&p futures up 22. that's just within a couple of points of where the all-time closing high is for the s&p 500. another three points higher and you'd be there nasdaq indicated up by about 54 points and "squawk box" will be right back

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and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. news breaking overnight, if you are just waking up listen to this, russia president vladimir putin said that the first russian produced vaccine for covid-19 has received regulatory approval from the country's health ministry. the vaccine was developed by moscow's gamalea institute putin said it formed stable

immunity and passes all necessary safety checks. putin also said one of his daughters has received that vaccine. joining us is dr. scott gottlieb, he's on the boards of pfizer and illumina. what do you think of this news we've been trying to figure out what it means and potentially where we go from here. >> well, i wouldn't take it certainly not outside a clinical trial right now. it appears that it's only been tested in several hundred patients at most some reports say it's been in as few as 100 patients. it's based on a viral vector being used to deliver the gene sequence you want to elicit immunity against. it's not a trivial vaccine in terms of a technical complexity that goes into manufacturing a vaccine like this. if you remember, the chinese

were also developing an add know viral vaccine. that's in clinical trials in canada, and the early data on that vaccine isn't very encouraging. a lot of people had antibodies to the viral vector itself and so they effectively neutralized the viral vector because it was base odd an common cold, the virus being used to deliver the gene sequence in this case it's not clear how efficacious the russian vaccine is going to be and whether or not people have prior immunity to the adenovirus they're using to deliver the coronavirus gene sequence. >> when you say you wouldn't take it, is that because you're worried about its safety or efficacy >> both at this point. something that's only been tested in 100 patients, you wouldn't want to take that outside a clinical trial where you're being closely monitored in a lot of these situations you might only get one shot at taking a vaccine in a season if you put a vaccine on the market that's not efficacious, it's going to hard to

revaccinate the population you want to make sure it works you also want to make sure it's safe this isn't a trivial technological platform thai using. it's not a protein based vaccine where they're injecting some segment, they're using a viral vector to deliver that ep toep that's technically complex you can get a reaction to the viral vector itself. >> dr. gottlieb, it's brian sullivan they started the trials on this drug actually wak back in mid-j and by mid-july they said they hoped to have a working vaccine by mid-august, which is basically where we are so they have been working on this and testing it on humans for two months is that enough time to come to any conclusion >> i think in terms of their development right now, they're a little bit behind where we are with the vaccines that we've in development. our vaccines here in the u.s.

are in phase three clinical trials they're getting dosed in thousands of patients as we speak. they've cleared phase one, phase two studies so they've been tested in 100 and in some cases a couple hundred patients. that's about where russia is right now. they've cleared the equivalent really of a phase one clinical trial in terms of 100 to maybe as many as 300 patients. so it needs to be evaluated in a large scale clinical trial what it means for them to give some kind of preliminary approval to start vaccinating people outside of a clinical trial is unclear to me they might be trying to do this -- they talked about getting volunteers to take the vaccine outside of a clinical trail. that might be some kind of registry thai sey're setting up where they're going to continue to follow these patients there might be a little bit of semantics going on in terms of how they're treating this from a regulatory standpoint.

it's not really fully approved they're certainly not ahead of us, and we certainly wouldn't allow a vaccine to be used for mass distribution at this point based on the data we have in hand we don't know that the vaccines are safe and effective. >> if safety was no longer a question for the rack seevaccin trial in the u.s. and in europe, would they be worth taking it based on the data we have on how effective they are would they be game changing in terms of delivering widespread immunity across a whole nation based on that part of the data that we have so far? >> the vaccines that we have in development here look encouraging. the challenge is that even if you believe that they were safe based on the data we have in hand -- and i don't think you can draw that conclusion just based on, you know, a couple of hundred patients you really need to put these in large scale trials where you're testing them on patients a

broader, more diverse population, people who are more likely to experience side effects of a vaccine, people who are older. people who might have other health conditions. you don't have all the safety data you would want to have in hand the other question is if you allow mass distribution of a vaccine and it turns out that vaccine isn't effective, have you actually done something that's productive? because you're not going to be able to revaccinate people right after that you might get only one shot at this over the course of a season there's also theoretical risks that can't be full elucidated in a small scale clinical trial there's a theoretical concern that the vaccines themselves could actually potentuate your propensity to get coronavirus in certain situations we believe that's not going to be the case but you don't fully discharge that potential risk until you get into a large scale clinical trial we have seen this phenomenon before particularly with the

dengue vaccine >> doctor, that's my concern with it is there are already so many people who are -- who don't trust vaccines at this point if you had something that was out there and that either didn't work or wasn't safe, that it would be a huge disservice, it would make more people think that you couldn't have this, and i don't think it would just be a one season situation where you'd be facing trouble with vaccines, i think you could be looking at decades or longer where people wouldn't trust vaccines, including vaccines we know work well is russia actually being a bad actor here by introducing something here before it goes through these testing phases >> i think that's right, becky we have a lot of challenges in this country with vaccine hesitancy and people not getting vaccinated with the flu, only about 40% of americans go out and get the flu vaccine each year, and some years it's lower than that. if we were to license a vaccine

or make a vaccine available for coronavirus for mass distribution that wasn't effective or had some side effect associated with it. i think it would impinge more than people's willingness to take the coronavirus vaccine people need to have confidence in the regulatory process that's making these available it's really not clear, the headline is not very clear with respect to what the russians are actually doing they talked about making it available for volunteers that doesn't sound like it's being fully licensed for mass distribution in russia on the basis of maybe as few as 100 patients in a clinical trial >> yeah, doctor, outside of that there was a comment -- i want to switch gears there was a common belief we needed to have 65, 70% of the country develop some kind of either the illness or enough exposure and viral load to create this idea of herd immunity with the t cell counts that we have seen in some people that have not shown any symptoms, do you believe that we could reach

this concept of herd immunity with a far smaller percentage of the population actually being asymptomatic, maybe 25 or even 30%. in other words, could we be closer than maybe the headlines lead us to believe >> well, we could be closer, but it's probably not because of this theory that there is a vast army of people out there who have t cell immunity that creates cross immunity to this particular crave that might be the case for some people there might be some prior exposure to similar coronaviruses and antibody immunity as well it's really unclear whether this actually has cross reactivity and affords some level of protection you're probably not going to need to have 60% of the population to have effectively the equivalent of herd immunity. some people as you suggest do have cross immunity.

some people just aren't vulnerable to the virus because of behavior, because they do go out. not everyone's equally vulnerable what ends up happening with an epidemic like this is the people who get infected first are the people most vulnerable once they develop some immunity infecting that next person becomes much more difficult for the virus because that people is harder to find for the virus the rate of transfer starts to fall that's probably what's happening in the south as well when you look at states like florida where maybe upwards of 20% of people have been infec d infected, texas probably about 15%, arizona may be as high as 25%. the rate on transmission is probably starting to decline now for the virus to infect that next person is more difficult. >> hey, dr. gottlieb, we appreciate having you with us every day. but especially today because there are some big questions about this breaking news thank you so much for your time.

>> thanks a lot. >> thank you. all right, coming up, more on the fallout from the pandemic and lockdowns. new numbers out of small businesses you got to hear them it is the heartbeat of america we bring you those right after the break. right now take a look at some of the biggest premarket gainers in the s&p 500. you got the travel companies the reopen stocks or the get back out and go do something trade if you will. look at that, united airlines, norwegian cruise lines up. dow futures up 262, vaccine possibly closer to herd immunity, maybe. markets on pe acfor eight straight day gains we're back right after this. surprise! we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. i'm good at my condo. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement. a lot goes through your mind. with fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice

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small business owners are in survival mode. kate rogers joins us with more hi, kate. >> hi, wolf, good morning, the national federation of independent business is showing a decline of 1.8 points in july to 98.8. this is after a big jump up we saw in june as states in the country began to reopen. the biggest declines were in those who expect the economy to improve.

that fell 14 points as well as those who expect to sales to rise even with states reopening, the nfib says sales are often lower due to business restrictions, social distancing requirements and a still reduced willingness of consumers to go out and mingle with the general population that's something that cnbc has also seen in our own polling surprisingly, the quality of labor is back in the top spot as business owners single biggest problem that's followed by taxes and government red tape and regulations. finding good workers has not become easier for respondents. july also brought abround the en of enhanced unemployment benefits, and what's coming out of these negotiations with regard to additional stimulus and new programs like ppp being renewed and potentially lower interest, longer term loans that may be available to them all of that likely weighing on optimism as well >> thank you so much for that. special programming note by the way. tomorrow the cnbc small business

playbook virtual summit will gather the most trusted and inspirational voices many business, sheryl sandberg, kevin o'leary and many others. the resources to survive today's crisis and a path forward to thrive tomorrow. visit cn cnbcevents.com/smallbusinessplay book stock futures surging after russia said it approved a covid vaccine and that one of vladimir putin's daughters has received it more reaction straight ahead. the latest on the pandemic relief efforts in america. we'll tell you what's next for the president's executive orders and stalled talks with lawmakers. as we head to break, a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers

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welcome back to "squawk b " box," everybody. if you are just waking up there's some big news breaking overnight. something worth paying attention to russian president vladimir putin saying the first russian-produced vaccine for covid-19 has received regulatory approval from the country's health ministry. putin said one of his daughters received that vaccine already. he said doctors would begin receiving the vaccine later this month or early next month with the aim of being broadly available in january now, as you might anticipate, stock futures did tick a leg higher when the news broke around 4:30 a.m. eastern time.

the market was already up by 150 points now the dow futures are indicated up by 264. the nasdaq up by 54. we should put this in context. we spoke with the former head of the fda under president trump. he said he would not take this vaccine. that it's only been tested on a few hundred people which really makes it more like a phase one vaccine candidate compared to what we've seen here in the united states. a big grain of salt to take this with there has been a debate here in the united states about whether the fda should set aside its requirements for phase one, two, three testing to get any of the vaccines immediately available at this point regulators say no, you need to go through those steps to make sure the vaccine is safe and second of all it's effective. >> i also liked what he had to say about the non-vaccine route. it does appear that more americans have probably been

exposed to at least a small viral load of this and that t cell responses in many people because of exposure to prior coronaviruses may be helping us get to that level of so-called herd immunity maybe quicker than some people think. at the impinge of this, johns hopkins said you need about 70% of the population generally to be exposed to get to that level. what we're seeing is you get a lot of people who say i've never been sick. as far as i know event been exposed but they've got a t cell response their body is already fighting it this is nowhere near the fist coronavir coronavirus that many people of a certain age have been exposed to, has helped us achieve a level of strength we didn't know we had i was happy to hear him say that s . >> there have been some tests that have been done where they're trying to weed out the people that might have natural

immunity to some of these things it could mess with the results of the testing there are some people who have potential unique immunity to it. it's probably because of what you've said, being exposed to oh coronaviruses. we're still so early in the research on all of this, there's a lot we're learning, and honestly, the medical profession is getting much better at treating people, too they're smarter about how they're handling this in the hospitals and they know more about what works and what necessarily doesn't. >> and that's the most important thing. case numbers are always going to go up. every new up is our new record, the hospitalizations, the fatality s is what we care about. outside of the virus, another huge issue is how we deal with the ongoing pandemic and lockdowns, especially in small business which many industries need more stimulus right now those talks are still at a standstill on capitol hill.

let's find exactly where we stand with those, ylan mui joining us with the latest from d.c. >> brian, the press conference that president trump delivered last night was dramatic for a number of reasons. the president was called away from the podium by the secret service moments after he began speaking we later learned trhere was a shooting about a block from the white house. it involved another secret service agent. the briefing room was temporarily locked down. when president trump returned to the room, he picked up where he left off, and that was talking about the rally in the markets, which he said was a direct result of his own economic policies still, there have been a lot of questions around some of the president's recent executive orders, especially around unemployment insurance, treasury secretary steven naumnuchin saih believed states could start paying out that extra $400 in benefits in the next week or two. yesterday after a video conference between mnuchin, the vice president, and the nation's governors, the states put out

this statement they said we are concerned about the significant administrative burdens and costs this latest action would place on the state th s. states have asked for $500 billion in direct relief, and that remains one of the stumbling blocks in these negotiations back over to you >> thank you very much >> a guest now on the stimulus talks and what to expect we're joined by u.s. public policy strategist at morgan stanley. michael, thanks so much for joining us the key question so many have about these executive orders is whether they'll bring both sides back to the negotiating table and whether they make a full congressional deal more orless likely >> yeah, i think that's the right way to think about it. i do think it helps bring both sides back to the table. basically the orders advertises a certain amount of actions that are going to benefit americans immediately.

we don't really think they'll behave that way. you already mentioned the state governors concerned. with the unemployment insurance you're basically asking states already cash strapped. by our estimate, there are 180 to $375 billion short on revenue to the end of next fiscal year to kick in money and on top of that set up a completely new program. i think it's entirely possible, weeks, possibly months before this money could potentially get out and it would be smaller. you could say the same thing about the payroll tax cut. it's basically a short-term loan to employees will employers want to extend that loan and call back a bunch of money at the end of the year. these benefits aren't necessarily going to get out anytime soon once that realization sets in beyond the headline created by the executive orders, i think you'll see congress come together quickly and get back to the negotiating table. >> what chance do you put on a full deal and by when given that we just referenced how the president was talking about the stock market last night. do you think that it might require another sort of pull

back in the market or a disappointing months of jobs numbers to crystallize any deal? >> yeah, i mean, it's an interesting dynamic. with our discussions with clients, i think clients also mostly sort of confident in the idea that there will be a deal here at the end of the day that could be helping markets, and therefore, in theory could be delaying a deal a bit however, i don't really think that's what's ultimately going to push a deal over the line or not. it's going to be the feedback that lawmakers are getting from the governors in their states. the people in their states, the businesses in their states that need that aid. i'd say that we're still confident that you're going to get a deal over. over what time frame, i do think some time has been added to the clock by these executive orders. now you have both sides in their corner trying to see how this is going to play out, maybe talking to their constituents, looking at polls this probably went from a middle of august situation to it could be taking most of august,

potentially could leak beyond labor day. >> the other big political issue everyone's focused on in the marketplace is whether china tensions continue to escalate and if there's going to be retaliation from china what are you guys expecting and do you think the election could change the direction of travel on that particular issue, or do you think whoever's president is going to keep the pressure on china? >> yeah, the short-term, this august 15th meeting is an important touch point, and i think our anticipation is that it will be relatively quiet, i think kind of the sweet spot for both countries is to push each other on medium and long-term issues, which include a lot of nontariff actions. a lot of the things we've seen already with sanctions and export restrictions, but not to create a kind of short-term acute economic stress situation by returning to tariffs. so that's how the phase one deal can probably remain kind of in a fragile piece relatively quiet zone the second part of your question, what happens after the election we get this question a lot

would a president biden be different for this relationship? i think it's fair to say that it could be in different in sort of stone and approach, but would you see tariffs come down quickly? i don't think so would you see a difference in the non-tariff actions i don't think so i think at this point china's skepticism is relatively bipartisan the administration wouldn't want to relieve the actions that have already been taken while they have so much more to negotiate for in a potential phase two agreement. >> thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you very having me. on deck, will that ugly, etch empty former department store at your local mall become an amazon fulfillment center, it certainly could. mall owner simon property group reportedly in talks with amazon to do just that. futures up 250 on hopes for a vaccine and tax cuts tethba rhtk box" is ckig afr is

that's up from 51% in april and may and 69% in may and june. simon says 91% of the tenants are back open for business that is a little bit of good news in what has been a terrible year otherwise for many retailers. 25 different companies, look at all of those names, have filed for chapter 11 so far this year leaving many others. simon group wants to change that they want to turn that into distribution and fulfillment centers. joining us is scott crow chief investment strategist at center square investment management scott, welcome do you believe the reports do you think soon coming to your local mall is not going to be a store, it is going to be effectively a warehouse? >> absolutely think it's true. the world's blurring between

physical space to sell and distribute goods and the internet which is amazon and other web-based sellers. so the model of the future is what we call omni channel, the ability to sell in both formats. it strikes me after simon has resisted this idea for many years, this is not new, we have seen in the past prior retail to warehouse conversions, they've understood they're better swimming with the tide and getting on board and today 1/3 of all goods travel through a distribution warehouse to the physical retail store store front. that's moving 40 to 50%. if anything has been given a big boost in that direction by covid. >> and the best move, i would imagine, is that it solves two problems number one, solves the problem for the owner of a large, empty building which is ugly and may

have co-tenancy clauses and cause others to break their leases and malls tend to be close to one thing, people that's been the biggest challenge that amazon has is getting close to individuals you can't build a million square foot facility in somebody's neighborhood, but now you can be a couple of miles away from where they live. >> you're right. it is a bit of a win-win for both simon and amazon. simon solves a problem of vacancy. they avoid spending cap ex to get a new tenant they can do it marginally. these tenants like jcpenney and others were paying very, very low rent amazon has a problem that's the last mile of distribution that's very tough to resolve you need to set up in an infield area one of the things we know about malls is that they are located next to very, very good

transportation infrastructure and people, but particularly as it relates to road transportation, which is what you need to get those little brown packages on your doorstep. but here's the problem simon has let the fox in with the hens amazon is their biggest competitor have they just helped amazon take a market that may have been one or two day fulfillment to same day fulfillment by helping solve a.m. ma stop's problem, by solving their own problem, have they created another problem? >> yeah, scott, fair enough, we've got to go, but i'll leave you with this. if it's a place you picked up packages, if it's not just a distribution center, if we actually go and get them, again guess what, now we're at the mall oh, by the way, i'm picking up a box. maybe i'll walk to the gap or the apple store. >> that's true.

>> you're letting them in the hen house, then you want to poke around, not kill chickens. >> it brings energy back into the mall and i think that's the key thing because malls are becoming irrelevant. this brings them closer to relevancy. >> scott crow, real pleasure to have you on. big story there. see what happens at the local mall appreciate it buddy >> still to come on "squawk box. check out the three major indices since the start of the month. we'll dig in to what's behind tech pauses. the s&p looks for a new record of its own the dow the big outperformer a major interview you don't want to miss with ginni rometty coming up at 8:15 a.m. here on quk x."sawbo

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breaking news overnight. russia's health ministry has approved a covid-19 vaccine and vladimir putin says one of his daughters received it. a live report from moscow is coming up. stock futures jumping after that news. now pointing to big gains at the open the s&p is just a few points away from a new record will the news change the outlook for big tech and internet stocks?

many names in that sector surging on the stay at home trade. we'll speak to an internet analyst mark mahaney as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc what has become a very busy tuesday all of a sudden. by the way, i'm not joe. i'm brian sullivan that's not andrew, that's wilfred frost along with becky quick. joe and andrew have the morning off. somewhere they are together tanning. >> what an image >> yes, it is. and i just ruined my day. >> my eyes. >> could 8 be enough. >> seriously, i hadn't actually thought about it now i have >> well, you're welcome, wilf. i just bring joy to everybody. we may find out if eight is enough today because stock futures, they are surging right now. the major averages, they are up

seven days in a row. coming into today. by the way, the s&p 500 is now less than 1% away from its february 2009 record high. believe that driving the move and maybe shocking the world, vladimir putin saying that russia has created what he calls a safe working covid vaccine, that it has gotten regulatory approval from that country's health ministry the scientific community still trying to get more information on this. the details right now, they are pretty sketchy we are very pleased to be joined by nbc's matt bogner joining us with this developing story matt, a shock of the world right now. >> reporter: a little bit unexpected, yes. russia has been hinting for the past several weeks that they were perhaps ready to approve a vaccine as early as this week, but no one officially was leaning into it. today vladimir putin led the news saying it's here, it's ready to go and my daughter is taking it. there's a lot of questions still. it's only passed through phase 1

and 2 trials really officially not even 100 people have been injected with this vaccine though there are indications perhaps up to 1,000 already have there have been reports maybe members of the russian elite have been participating in trials all of this officially denied. i think the best way to think about what's happening here today is that russia's essentially doing its phase 3 trials live. we're going to see in the first round of those who are vaccinated in the next several weeks as production begins it will be doctors these are people close at hand to keep an eye on. perhaps in some ways this is a bit of a rhetorical exercise >> yeah, matt. i shouldn't say it's come out of left field they talked about it in june, they were working on it, human trials they said in july. it may be ready by august. certainly that apparently is where we are do we know more about the scale of these tests we had dr. scott gottleib on he's like, we don't know how

many people. maybe a couple hundred only. is there any information on how many people this may have been tested successfully on >> yeah. so an official control trials, we're talking about several dozen. 70 to 100 people these were tests run by the gamelian institute in cohorts with the defense ministry as well as the university here. these were just phase 1 and 2 trials, very low scale the big question is we've not seen any long-term studies of the vaccine and they're essentially saying we're going to have to do these long-term studies as we go and so there's really -- there really are a lot of questions, especially on that we even heard vladimir putin say today it's a two-stage vaccine the second one appears to give you a fever. vladimir putin said his daughter had a fever for a day, and this is something we've heard from other people who have taken the vaccine including the head of the russian direct invest fund who has really emerged the

forefront of promoting this saying he and his family suffered from this side effect but long term we still don't know very much about what this vaccine is going to do to you. >> matt, i think just to clarify, because there are a lot of people waking up this morning and thinking, fantastic. there's a vaccine that's been approved we should put this in context for everyone this is a situation where the candidate that they have doesn't sound like it's anywhere advanced as the candidates we have here. i would argue some of the candidates here in the united states, those vaccine candidates are further along it's just that our regulatory structure here in the united states won't approve anything like this until it goes through very extensive testing, phase 1, phase 2, phase 3 clinical trials to make sure it's, a, safe and, b, effective. it sounds like the russians are circumventing that approving this anyway. i think they did a similar thing with the ebola vaccine they claimed they had an ebola

vaccine and i don't believe there was ever much proof that the ebola vaccine worked. >> reporter: there's actually a relationship between the ebola vaccine and this vaccine the official word of how they got so far ahead they're doing this phase 3 trial live, whereas, in the united states and in the u.k. the oxford vaccine, for instance, is officially already in phase 3 trials so you could, indeed, argue that russia is in fact behind when you take a more stringent reg ulatory approach t t. russia claims it can skip these corners because this vaccine is based not only on this ebola vaccine they had but also a middle east respiratory syndrome vaccine that worked on the same engineering principles. the big problem is none of this stuff has been released for peer review no independent scientists outside of these groups have had access to verify the claims.

we don't know if the people who have claimed to have taken the vaccine have taken it. while it's certainly hopeful news, there's so many questions still about it. >> sorry to be pedantic but on your last point, it said the president said his daughter had taken it, past tense you said in your earlier report, she was going to take it do you know what the precise translation of what president putin said on that particular topic was? >> apologies had taken it. >> past tense. thanks. >> past tense. >> much appreciate it. >> reporter: pleasure. what does this all mean for the markets? well, they did move higher on this news in european trade. had been a strong sense in europe mike santoli joins us with all of the latest and what to expect in the day ahead in the last few days, quite a few rotations. >> quite sure, wilf, up side risk we've talked about this that

it's not allowed skeptics of this rally to get comfortable. there will be news that will provide excuse for the rally to stretch further. this is one year of the s&p 500 etf getting the etf to have the premarket move rej 12erd not quite virtually at the february highs the one thing i was going to vaguely draw in here, this is obviously imprecise, that's roughly the 200 day average. it's barely budged the shot down was so fast, didn't have time to change the overall trend. this spread is over 10% above the 200 day average. it's actually not quite as far as it was in february but it's pretty close that is simply to say that the market itself on an index basis is getting a little bit stretched. no matter what else is going on, no matter how big the streak is, no matter how we get to or clear the highs. you mentioned the rotation this is where the game is being played in the other relationships between the nasdaq

100, the acknowledged leader for a long period of time. the s&p 500 and the equal weight s&p 500 are the three ways i would look at it those are tiered nasdaq 100, very, very strong. in the middle is the s&p and then you have the equal weight right here that's the average stock it is still not back to where it was in june and it's still well below. you could look at this and say, wow, there's a lot more ground to make up for the typical stock now that we've hidden. that's the bullish case we can have broadening out not a zero sum game out of the big stuff and into the smaller, more cyclical stuff. this is what we're dealing with as we get to a point where we see the rally perhaps starts to culminate. >> mike, stick around. let's bring in a couple more voices to discuss the markets in more depth katheryn rooney is head of global research and chief investment strategist and brian leavitt is global market strategist for north america at invesco. very good morning to you both. brian, i'll come to you first.

this recent rotation, we've seen attempts at it quite a few times. not just in the last couple of months but the last couple of years. do you think it lasts this time? >> yeah, i think it lasts here we're following a consistent pattern in a recovery. you would expect to see at some point the more economically sensitive parts of the market start to participate and you're starting to see some better signs with regards to cases. there's obviously a massive policy response from the federal reserve. we're likely to see, at least the market is expecting to see, more support on the fiscal side and then obviously there's some hopes around therapeutics or vaccines as you're talking about this morning if you believe that this recovery is feeling like fits and starts

>> do we need to see a full stimulus deal in congress for that to continue >> well, i think the market is precipitated on that eventual y eventuality. if we don't get an additional fiscal stimulus, then i think it will paint ugly for the markets going forward. let's face it, we're at very close to all-time record highs and the main driver of that appreciation in the s&p 500 has been stimuli, both fiscal and monetary. >> mike, clearly hard to pinpoint exactly what markets are moving on this morning, whether it is that russian vaccine news, but interesting to see the ten year go back above 0.6% this morning. that's a relatively meaningful move i guess does paint some optimism towards the broader economy, whether it's linked to a vaccine or not. >> yeah, it definitely means a little bit of a retreat from that safety bid in bonds it also would support the idea of perhaps a more cyclical tone to the equity market because the

extremely low yields it has been a backdrop for all of the long duration that's the answer for why the nasdaq has been doing it a lot of treasury supplies it is in gear with this idea that we might have a phase where the cyclical stocks can do some catchup. >> katheryn, if you're a u.s. equity investor, dowell come the weaker dollar we've had of late? >> well, certainly it's a positive i'll tell you the combination of variables we have is very fortuitous for the markets it's driven mainly by retail investors which we know a barons article came out saying 25% of recent market moves is brought on by retail investors what i think is the bullish case here is the potential for a real vaccine, maybe not the russian one, but potential for a real vaccine in the course of the

next six months. if that's the case, then we have that fundamental base which is that nation growth solidified. if that happens, this v-shaped recovery that we've seen thus far really has legs. from there on, wilfred, what we need to see is retractment of the fiscal stimuli it makes the lehman brothers reaction seem like small business consumption is already growing exacerbated by a federal reserve that's dramatically increasing its balance sheet. >> brian, would you, therefore, similarly be very bullish with 2021-2022? >> yeah, i think we're going to have a long cycle here it's similar to how we came out of the 2008 financial crisis things didn't look good for a

while. it's taken a while to repair the market doesn't care if things are good, they care if things are getting better and so what you should expect over the next couple of years is things to get better at a gradual pace and given that it's a gradual pace, we're likely to see policy accommodate well into the future in a modest growth accommodative policy environment that should be very good for stocks and for credit. similar to what we saw in the aftermath of the '08 global financial crisis. >> thank you all for joining us. >> thank you still to come this morning the ceo of adaptive biotech. efforts to sequence the human genome russia says they've developed the first coronavirus vaccine. we should put a big asterisk with that. they have not gone through any regulatory approvals that the u.s. has gone through. it's only been tested on level

1. bear all of that in mind we have that interview next. later, we'll talk internet stocks and get investment news from mark mahaney. "squawk box" will be right back. at leaf blowers. you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. make ice. making ice. but you're not mad because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad get e*trade and start trading commission free today.

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vladimir putin says russia has a working covid vaccine and it has gotten regulatory approval from the country's institute. vladimir putin says his own daughter has received the vaccine and he hopes that russia will soon begin mass production. dr. scott gottleib on earlier in the show offered this big word of caution >> something that's only been tested in several hundred patients, that's effectively a phase one clinical trial you wouldn't want to take that outside of a clinical trial where you'd be closely monitored. >> you could see stock futures up 255 they were up already before the news but they did take another leg higher effectively adding about 100 points when the news broke right around 4:30 a.m. eastern time a lot of questions this is coming out of russia scientists, i'm sure, around the world trying to get more information on the drug trials, on the vaccine itself. more news right now the markets

didn't even react. you can see the tick up at 3:30, 4 a.m. joining us to discuss the news this morning and their efforts is chad robbins. adaptive biotechnology's co-founder and ceo the stock gaining about 25% so far this year and adaptive recently partnering with industry leaders including microsoft to decode the immune response to the coronavirus. so working certainly on vaccine development and trials as well as drug trials chad, you're a perfect guest to have on in this news day what are your initial thoughts about this news from russia? >> well, my initial thoughts on the news of russia is we've got to be extremely weary. in order to have an effective vaccine you have to determine safety and efficacy. i'd like to see what the data is to show both of those things one of the things we're seeing in determining efficacy, we'll talk about it more, is the

antibody response is not enough. you have to look at the t cell response to the virus. >> yeah. and outside of this vaccine which, again, has so many questions i should call it the alleged vaccine as well, chad, to your point. we talked to scott gottleib about t cell responses and this idea of herd immunity. outside of a vaccine with your trials that you're doing at adaptive and your partnership with microsoft, are you maybe confident that as a country perhaps more people have been exposed than we think, either to this or prior coronaviruses and maybe we are inching our way to natural immunity faster than we think? >> i think that that's a possibility, but we're really going to need the proper tools to be able to measure that and one of the things that we've done over the quarter is we've comprehensively mapped the t cell response to sars covid 2. so not only to the vaccine --

the part of the virus called the spike protein that all of the vaccines have targeted but 11 other parts of the virus and we've developed a new tool called immunot map covid vaccine developers can integrate it into their trials to accurately and reproduce briiblp it and track it over time using a small blood sample. >> and that's important. it's not just the body's initial reaction, it's the body's ability to continue that positive reaction to build the t cells because the coronavirus will come back or if they fadeaway so in those tests with your partners, are you free to share with us, chad, some of their results? i mean, how has that t cell response been to some of these antibody candidates? >> well, actually, we did announce yesterday on earnings a very favorable comparison in a real world setting that said the

t cell response had a higher sensitivity rate than an antibody response. and so that's an important new piece of data for sure. >> chad, just to get into what we've heard from the russians this morning i brought this up with scott gottleib and i'll bring it up with you, too. my concern would be if something gets rushed out there that has not been tested for both safety and efficacy, that it raises all kinds of questions about vaccines in general and that that could be harmful to the broader push to try to get this under control do you have any thoughts on that >> first of all, hi, becky i do have some thoughts on that. in the united states we have a very structured process to be able to evaluate safety and efficacy and we're following that process so the good caution i would have is that we really stick to our guns and make sure that we have a safe and effective vaccine

before launching it out to market because it's incredibly important that we really stick to our protocols and process >> chad, we are going to leave it there adaptive biotechnologies congratulations on your success. stocks up 25%. results out last night we appreciate you rolling with the breaking news. thank you. have a great day. >> thanks for having me back on the show appreciate it. when we come back, the struggles of getting schools up and running and what virtual learning will look like. we're going to speak to university of arizona president robert robbins about just that by the way, he's not just the university president, he's also a cardio surgeon and some of his work at the nih. he has a very good feel for how to handle all of this. in the meantime, check out airlines stocks this morning federal data showed air travel at the highest volume in nearly five months. this morning they're up sharply once again

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business. not boundaries. welcome back stock futures the bottom right of the screen, they are much higher indicating an open of 230 points on the up side for the dow industrial average s&p 500 and nasdaq rising as well watch the s&p 500 futures. i'll tell you why. we're just about 25 points below the february record high on the s&p 500. the nasdaq hit a record high, about 32 of them this year that's old news. the s&p we're about 25 points below that 18 right now

we wouldn't hit a record if we gained as much as futures are suggesting add another 7 to that and you've got yourself, wilf, a new record high despite millions of unemployed i guess the stimulus up and out. >> european stocks up and the ten year back above a yield of 0.6 this morning "squawk box," the reopening of the nation's colleges and schools. we'll speak to the president of the university of arizona next then microsoft, twitter, facebook and many other names in the big tech space continue to have a great performance so far this year. we'll discuss next with analyst mark mahaney futures at this hour, as we just showed you, up 240 points on the dow. 's easy to get lost in the economic uncertainty. the volatility. the ambiguity. this moment calls for more. and northern trust delivers more. with specialized expertise. proven strategies rooted in data and analytics...

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welcome back, everybody. we have been talking all morning about these comments from russian president vladimir putin this morning that his country has developed a covid vaccine. in fact, the market has been trading higher on this you saw an extra hundred points or so on the dow futures based on the idea that russia has approved the vaccine to be clear, no data has been published by researchers it's only been injected into a few hundred people so far. a phase 3 trial is due to begin later this month that's very different than the process that takes place here in the united states. there are many vaccine candidates here in the united states that have already gone through much tougher testing on all of this and looked much more viable dr. scott gottleib joining us earlier this morning offering some words of caution on this and he just tweeted this out russia was reported to be behind

disinformation campaigns to sew doubts and they approved phase 1 data it may be another effort to stoke doubts or goad u.s. into forcing early action on our vaccines they have warned against and cautioned against saying there's a reason we have such stringent hurdles and we should feel very safe with any of our vaccines as a result wilf >> clearly a similar tone. perhaps a more sturdy tone even slightly than the interview earlier. definitely suggesting to us early on in that tweet not to extrapolate from the headlines that this means we'll have a widely available and effective vaccine to use in the u.s. any time immediately soon. we'll have to wait and see. >> yeah, but, agreed, the better news i got from that was the

idea that the doctor sort of admitted, maybe we don't need 60 or 70% exposure to achieve this concept of herd immunity, maybe we can do it with less because, a, some people are just naturally resistant. we're still trying to figure out why. or, b, we've all been exposed to other coronaviruses in our life and maybe those exposures, while certainly not covid-19 or as severe, have helped us achieve maybe a stronger t cell response than we think. i mean, again, i'm taking the positive tact here because the market clearly is. norwegian cruise lines and m american airlines, they're acting like everybody will pop back on a plane. 830,000 people went through their checkpoints. that's, by the way, down 70% from a year ago but still the first time above 800,000 since march 17th i only know that because it was supposed to be the rbi this morning but we didn't do it

because we had the russian news. there you go i just did it. >> i would look at this not as anything slamming the potential for vaccines in the you states we have very vigorous candidates and very likely we'll get something out of some of those candidates i think this is more just take with a huge grain of salt the idea that russia says it's there first and approved the first vaccine. that's not the case if you dig into any sort of how these studies were done. i'd have much more faith in vaccines being produced in the united states and western countries. >> market still higher up 2.6%. up 1.6% before that russian news this morning we're up about 0.75% on the dow futures this morning a new study out this morning is the first in the nation to estimate the number of students who will be learning virtually this fall. steve liesman has an exclusive on that story for us steve?

>> wilf, thanks very much. yes, this new study by the online startup berbio finds more than half of the students in the u.s. will be studying virtually when going back to school or have already gone back to school 52% will be doing virtual learning only accord to go this study by burbio. they aggregate school calendars and put them online. 25% in person only and 19% some form of a hybrid 4% remain undecided. i'm surprised that's not higher. looking at a map of the country, you can see certain obvious trends the state in the out west, the in person index is very low there. more virtual there look at the northeast, they're coming back including the big decision by new york governor mario cuomo to allow schools to

open in the state and texas does the best job look at the texas panhandle. those are going to be in person only largely rural. southern texas, rural area where they've had more of an outbreak from san antonio on south. that will be virtual harris county is a great example of all of the differences that we're seeing across the country. the city itself of houston will be virtual but some of the school districts in that county of harris county are going to be in person. so decisions, wrenching decisions being made district by district and, indeed, school by school but the trend done by burbio is that it's more towards online learning the co-founder julie rose writing we have seen a dramatic shift to online only learning in the past three weeks many districts have thresholds for covid-19 levels that could result in converting back to remote learning. we have decisions to make.

those decisions have been reversed and gone the other way. there may be other decisions made these are not easy decisions there is no right decision as you can see from the map, there is no national decision being made it's a very, very local decision >> steve, i think the bottom line probably is a liability question schools get nervous about what they'll be blamed for, what they'll be held responsible for. >> i think that's right. there are competing interests. parents care about their safety. also care about themselves there's teachers there are community aspects to this which is we've talked about this before when we first introduced the burbio data i don't think we can say the country is open. >> until the libraries and schools are open that's why we're following this so carefully it's a big cultural part of the

story and a major part of the economic story going on with the pandemic the decisions from this map are going to have implications from retailers trying to do back to school clothing. a lot of kids, more than half of them aren't going to need the back to school clothing. there are a lot of computers being bought and sold as a result of this online learning that's going on. >> steve, thank you. we'll continue to watch what you're following brian, do you have a question? his lips are moving but his mike is cut off >> yeah. which all of america hopes is always the case, by the way. steve, very quickly. has anybody donnie sort of studies on the loss -- and i'm not making an argument for going back to school i'm talking about the pure economic side. say half the kids succeed at remote learning, the other half vanish, disappear, don't tune in to the zoom. that has happened. the long-term economic impact of this, this is going to be a decades long story >> yeah, it's a great question,

brian. economics has this idea, which is sort of depressing but it's true, you can't get back a lost year of your life. that's why one of the objectives for federal monitoring policy, try to keep the unemployment rate down as much as possible, if you lose that year of employment, you don't get it back if you lose that year of wages, you don't get it back. we're used to looking at the stock market, it goes down, we're back to where we were. economists look over that period of time you were down, you were down forever for that period of time that's an issue. kids losing the school and being able to get it back is a big issue and the impact of that but, brian, of course, safety and health would appear to trump that consideration in many cases. >> steve, thank you very much. steve liesman. for more on getting back to school, we are joined by robert

robbins. president robbins, thank you very much for being here today i just want people to know you are not only the university president but you are also a cardiosurgeon. you've worked at the nih and spent a lot of time in texas running the biggest medical center there so you know what you are bringing to this very complicated set of questions and issues thank you for being with us, sir. >> thank you for having me this morning. >> let's talk about back to school what are the biggest risks you're facing? how are you doing this what are your plans for getting kids back on campus? >> the biggest risk is that there will be transmission of the virus once we bring students, faculty and staff back to campus. i'm happy to report though yesterday our numbers in arizona are going down we had the lowest transmissibility in the country of any state in our great country.

0.81 r naught value yesterday. the number of cases rolling seven day average has been going down dramatically. two weeks from yesterday we start classes at the university of arizona on august 24th. we're very excited about that, but we're also very cautious it won't look like it did before mid march when we're on spring break and we asked people not to come back to campus. so my biggest challenge is we know there are going to be cases when the students come back, but my biggest challenge will be to try to minimize the number of cases, try to identify those cases that are positive. the sim tow ma particulars are fairly easy. people have symptoms, they go, they get tested, but we're doing an extensive testing, tracing, treating program where we're trying to identify those asymptomatic people, get them out of the general population

and get them isolated so that we can keep the transmissibility low. >> how do you do that? how often are you testing people how are you choosing who to test if you're looking for asymptomatic people as well? >> we're testing everyone who's made the decision to come back, and we're excited about so many of our students wanting to come back to tucson and continue their life as you speak in the earlier segment and moving on and learning and working towards their degree so they can go out and get a job and get into the marketplace. so we think that anybody who's going to live on our campus, we're requiring them to be tested we tested 600 students yesterday. we had one positive out of 600 which is lower than i thought. i thought it was going to be between 3 and 5% positivity, but we have to wait.

we've got about 6,000 students coming to our dorms. then we are offering testing and strongly encouraging every student, every faculty, every staff we're providing free testing for everyone and those are the students we were testing yesterday. those who are going to live off campus and not being in our dorms. i just want to point out, we've had over 7,000 people, students, faculty, staff coming to our campus, doing research labs. with the numbers going down in arizona. with people following the washing of hands, covering their face and physically distancing, i think that combined with our testing, tracing and treating modalities, we've got a chance but people have to follow the rules. >> that's great news that you

haven't had any issues with the 7,000 kids who have been on campus i think we're all watching what's happening with college sports, with college football in particular right now and the number of case that is have been picked up there, the controversy about whether that's safer than what the kids would be doing at home obviously you're going to be keeping an eye on the kids while they're on your campus what happens when they go out, maybe to the bars, maybe out on town, maybe to fraternity parties or other places? that's where i would anticipate that's where the spread would be more difficult you can't control what goes on outside of the classroom >> absolutely. that's our biggest concern the governor has done a great job by getting our case numbers down people in society. the governor can only do so much with rules i think not having bars open, closing gyms certainly for our athletes,

we've had 100 football players return to campus we've had a few positives once they've come back but none since they've come back. we thought it was safer to have them in our facilities they're not doing any contact practice or anything like that, but they are working out, trying to stay ready in case there were a season, they could be in shape. we think having them back on campus in a bubble and not having to go out to their community gym in their communities all across the country is safer and i think that by having them follow the rules, and i'm so proud of them, we are testing them frequently with three different tests they are model students. they'll be a big influence i've seen other universities where star players have said,

please, if you want to see us play, you know, in the fall, i think the last one i saw was unc chapel hill, if you want to come to the dean dome, follow the rules. if you don't, we can't have school, we can't have games. >> president robbins, we're about out of time but very quickly, you said you anticipated seeing 3 to 5% of the students tested coming back positive what would be the level that would cause you to say, we have to shut this down? we can't have people on campus or in classrooms >> i think that's always the big story. how much of an outbreak? how bad would it have to get for us to shut it down the short answer is, if we can't handle it in the system, if we don't have enough isolation beds, if the local hospitals which we follow very carefully every day don't have beds, don't have icu beds, then we would know that it's time to send

everybody home the people who have chosen to come back -- >> too late. >> yeah. it's not too late if we watch these numbers prospectively, and we have a team of medical experts, public health experts who are advising me and we'll be watching every day and the hope is we will see cases starting to trend and we will stop in-person activities and go into lockdown. and i think you're going to see that come up and down over the course of this year. >> president robbins, i want to thank you for your time today and want to wish you the best of luck in the start of the school week coming up in two weeks. >> thank you so much as we say, bear down and mask up. >> agreed. thank you very much, president robbins. >> thank you. coming up, we're going to talk tech and the stay at home trade for mark mahaney

ginni rometty will join us and help people find work and employment in the new york metropolitan communities w in dn. up, gold is one of the we're back right after this. peo. and their financial well-being. it's evident in good times, with decisions focused on the long-term. and crucial when circumstances become difficult. that continued emphasis on people - our advisors, associates, clients and communities gives us purpose, strength and a way forward. today. and always.

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only with xfinity mobile. call, click or visit a store today. high flying tech stocks taking a breather. the nasdaq has been up gaining 22%. mark mahaney joins us now. mark, thanks so much for joining us good to see you. i wanted to start, if i may, on the news that amazon might be

considering buying former stores from simon retail property group. do you think that's a smart move for them >> well, let's see the ability to expand their physical footprint this is something that's a decade long move by amazon the whole foods deacquisition was part of it amazon is trying to fix its costs. what i mean by that is they're trying to vertically integrate into further distribution fulfillment centers. if they can find inexpensive real estate that's well positioned, i.e.,, near consumer centers, some of these malls have been, seems like a smart move to me i don't know about the exact pricing. yes, there's an opportunity for them to continue to expand the distribution capability, seems like that's part of the strategy. >> would it strangely suggest that the whole foods acquisition was unnecessary and over priced, that they can buy things that could be used as distribution centers at a much cheaper price than a profitable retailer as it

was for whole foods? >> that's a -- i love that question, wilfred. you may well be right. i don't think the whole foods acquisition has been proven. i haven't seen it. >> we might just have lost mark there. we'll see if we can get mark back in the meantime, the last couple of days we've seen a rotation out of those tech stocks the nasdaq two days in a row, quite significant underperformance of course, haven't had much more than two days of rotation out of those tech stocks. mark can join us again mark, you were saying whole foods hasn't been proven yet >> no, it hasn't i don't know how long that's going to take. that's a five-year journey for amazon to prove the value of whole foods. we haven't seen a lot of synergies come out of that the big win for amazon is getting further into the category that they've been only marginally involved. we've had this major event, which is covid which has caused this dramatic two or three-year

acceleration in online grocery shopping whether amazon can come out of this proving whole foods, that's the question. >> mark, it's brian sullivan obviously a lot of talk this morning about the alleged russian vaccine. who knows if it is, if it works for testing, whatever. at some point we'll get through this, get a vaccine, just whatever how does that alter your calculus when you look at these companies? are we getting work from home fatigue? are we getting zoom fatigue? do you think it will change it how many of these changes that we've had to deal with do you think are permanent? >> oh, i think we've gone through permanent changes. you go four or five months into something where we've changed the way we work and live, that will lead to a permanent change in consumer behavior if i think about the stocks, for good or bad, we've had remarkable winners from the covid crisis online retailers, amazons, the -- i think some of the web

presence companies, that would be shopify and home entertainment, that's been netflix. monster stocks to date we're looking you err to date. recovery stocks, vaccine stocks. the ones i like are the ones that have lagged year to date but i think are good business models that are starting to recover maybe more slowly than i thought two or three years ago but are starting to recover. those are the ubers, lyfts, travel names like booking.com and advertising names like facebook our top three stocks are uber, facebook and booking the advertising names work negatively impacted. we've started to see them recover. interesting as this recovery play hopefully unfolds. >> mark, as you look at your stocks, do you want any one of them in particular to buy tiktok and at what price? >> that stock is a very good asset. we've tracked it for a year. we're seeing dramatic adoption of it.

they've had a wonderful formula, a mobile first algorithmically driven, highly entertaining and addictive service. what it indicates to me is a failure of innovation, companies like youtube this should have been youtube's ability. congratulations to tiktok. now facebook with instagram reels has something that's very compelling if you are forced away from tiktok, i think you will very quickly amp up on reels. i think reels is a pretty good product out of the gate. >> how long does the lack of an acquisition have to persist? >> that's a good question. i think it's very unlikely reels takes all of the market share. you would have to have an outright ban of tiktok

you shut down tiktok, reels with the history of the internet, you'd need three months for reels to overtake tiktok assuming a straight out flat ban. >> quickly, final question the decision last night in california for uber and lyft, was that expected? priced in already? >> that was expected i think that's largely priced in >> looks like we've lost mark again but you heard his conclusion there it was expected and largely priced in. if there's any more detail, we'll make sure to bring it to you later. mark mahaney of rbc. >> wilf, thank you very much. coming up on "squawk box," former chief of staff to president obama bill daily will join us. we'll talk about the stimulus stalemate and what the president might do to boost the economy. plus, are boeing shares

expected to go up? don't they still have a big 737 max problem to deal with outside of the pandemic? stock futures up 251 on the dow. could we hit a new record high for the s&p 500 today? we're getting close. we're ba rhtft ts.ckig aerhi

breaking news. russia claims it has a working coronavirus vaccine and futures are up 250 there is no published data former fda commissioner dr. scott gottleib says the news might be described to make the u.s. move faster than it should on its own. meantime, congress with a stalemate on the next virus relief bill but the president may have moved on already.

taking executive action himself. he says he is now looking at new tax cuts that's also helping the markets. more than 20 of america's most powerful ceos stepping up to transform work for underserved communities in and around new york. ibm former chair woman ginni rometty will join us for a very special interview. final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with wilfred frost and brian sullivan both joe and andrew are out today. we've been talking about this unproven -- >> sunbathing. >> what's that sunbathing to get back to those images.

we have been talking about those unproven russian claims of a vaccine. we are looking right now at dow futures up by 264 points s&p futures up by 16 the nasdaq had been 234 positive territory. it's now down by 5 points. the s&p is looking at gains that would take us very close to the record level that was set back on february 19th s&p needs to be up by 25.5 points to hit that we're just about 9 points shy of that right now where the futures stand. vaccine hopes helping to push what we've been calling reopening stocks higher. those are the stocks from businesses like the airlines, the hotels and the cruise lines that would see an immediate benefit from people getting back to normal and not having to worry as much about catching the coronavirus. if there were a working vaccine, that would certainly be the case we should point out with russia, this is something they've done with only about 100 people or so who have been tested at this point. there are vaccines here in the

united states that are much bigger in terms of where we stand in the testing process. >> president putin's daughter supposedly, of course, one of the people who has taken the vaccine so far, but let's get more about what we can make of these claims of a russian vaccine. president vladimir putin saying one of his daughters, as i just mentioned, had taken it. the vaccine underwent tests and data is published by researchers. it's only been injected into a few dozen people safety of the vaccine remain unclear. with us earlier in the show, dr. scott gottleib passed out on the vaccine. >> i wouldn't take it. certainly not outside a clinical trial right now. it appears that it's only been tested in several hundred patients at most >> joins us now with what we do know about the supposed russian vac seen meg, can we have anymore optimism than dr. gottleib

failed to have there >> reporter: i don't think so, wilf from what we can glean about the available information and data behind this vaccine, it is no further ahead, as becky just detailed, than many of the vaccines in development here in the united states. i mean, to say -- for russia to say that it has won the vaccine race by approving this vaccine now, it's because it's moved the finish line to halfway through the race we have vaccines in testing that have more data than we've seen on this russian vaccine. so essentially what putin said this morning was that it looks effective enough and shows an immune response. this has been what vaccine experts have been concerned about, that we could sort of jump the gun on giving emergency use authorization to vaccines before we know whether they actually protect people against infection. you know, there are things called biomarkers. the levels of antibodies generated by these vaccines that people are looking at to see if

they could suggest that they would be protected but this is a brand-new virus and we just don't know yet the level of immunogenicity that is needed. so what experts are cautioning about these russian claims is that it's just not known if this vaccine will be protected and also it's not known how safe it is when you give it to lots of people you could see effects that you don't see in smaller trials now the company -- sorry, the country says that this is technology that they have developed for other diseases based on using two other viruses called add den know viruses to deliver the genetic material to the coronavirus. this is not an unknown technology other countries are using adenoviruses russia is combining two of them. there are just a lot of question marks here, and to think that this means there's been some breakthrough, there hasn't

no scientific data has been presented here it's just the country saying, we're ready to approve it based on less data than other countries. guys >> yeah. meg, i think that's really important to point out russia may want to claim that it's got the first approved one, but it's because they lowered their standards and, again, i would put a lot more faith in what you hear from the results coming out of some of those vaccines here in the united states and some of the other western countries as well. >> reporter: yeah. we are depending on large trials of 30,000 participants each. they say you have to test it broadly to feel that it is safe and to know that it's protected. those are the things we need in vaccines nobody wants to take a vaccine that won't work or could potentially be harmful this is very important that we know these things. >> science matters meg, thank you

>> reporter: thanks. >> in the meantime, the stimulus stalemate is being watched. they remain far apart even after the unemployment benefits expired and even though they desperately need another package. they attempted to get relief flowing by going around congress with a series of executive orders last night president trump said he is considering even more measures to try and help shore up the economy >> we're looking at also considering a capital gains tax cut which would create a lot more jobs. so we're looking very seriously at the capital gains tax cut and also at an income tax cut for middle income families we're looking at expanding the tax cuts that we've already done >> joining us now to talk about getting the next stimulus deal done in d.c. is bill daily

former chief of staff to president obama. he is currently a vice chairman at wells fargo bill, it's great to see you. thank you for joining us this morning. >> thanks, becky, for having me. >> what do you think about where we stand right now first of all, are these executive orders legal will they be challenged? just in terms of getting the two sides together, are we further apart or closer together >> i think the executive orders, and you've seen the confusion even around the effectiveness that they may have from the ones he announced on saturday so talking about tax cuts that are really for congress to do. i think the pressure, we've got 84 days to election. democrats seem to be very confident about maintaining the house. republicans have concern about the senate there's got to be a deal done. all parties believe that, both because of the pain and for raw

politics i think the president with all of these actions around the executive order are very weak in terms of effectiveness in policy for the next 84 days the president needs to have a chance to have checks sent to the american people again with his name on them like happened in the spring, and that will give people some confidence and politically will probably be helpful to him so i think there's enormous pressure to get something done i think secretary mnuchin telegraphed that the other day. >> what you're talking about was the $1200 that was september out to americans making under a certain amount of money that went to the majority of the country. that can't be done by executive action or executive order. >> no. it has -- >> will it be part of some -- >> i absolutely believe it will be part --

>> will that be something that will be -- >> sorry, becky. >> that's why you think both sides will come together it seems like in the last -- go ahead, sir sorry. >> i think that and other reasons. you've got a lot of relief that's needed in different industries we talked about it over the last weeks and months i think there is a pressure building something has to happen both from an economic point of view and that will come together in some resolution in my opinion over the next number of weeks. >> brian sullivan. do you see any chance that in the next ten years middle class tax rates cannot not go up they have to go up to pay this bill, do they not? >> i don't think there's any question at some point we're going to have to pay the piper, as they say. we've been kicking this deficit and the issues some people believe inflation

and interest rates will stay low. brian, your ten-year window, it's hard to imagine in that period there won't have to be some increased revenue in tax increases on a very large chunk from the american people in order to replenish what has been lost and get a stimulus going. the government and congress didn't come together in the spring for trillions of relieve. when they did that in the spring, we were all optimistic this will end at some point relatively soon. it looks like this is going to be a long-term situation the political situation has a hard time dealing with long-term problems they can deal with the short term fairly successfully but long term it has a very difficult way of getting to that resolution >> okay. so the follow-up, bill we know the taxes to your point then probably will need to go up

and pay for this income tax hikes are hard to sell politically let's be clear the folks that are in charge now won't be in charge in ten years. they're in their 60s and 70s do you foresee a national sales tax like europe as a way to get this bill paid >> brian, for many years they have kicked that around as a real solution to our problems. it doesn't seem to ever get real traction at some point when you look at the different options, i think some version of that is -- should be seriously considered now how do we seriously consider policies in the way we're so divided in our politics, but i think it has to be on the table because i think over time based upon the difficulty we're going through and the need for some chan

change, i absolutely believe sales taxes should be on the table. as you point out, a ten-year period if we can't come to some solution of our long-term fiscal issues, at some point especially in that period, then the future is not very bright for a lot of our grandkids and their kids. >> bill, i wanted to pivot and ask you a little bit about wells fargo if i may i guess the main question which falls specifically into what you're leading the charge for internally is how unfair the asset cap has been on wells fargo. how damaging has it been how fair has it been during the crisis which has requires you to do something and, therefore, increase your assets despite having this in place. >> it's been fair to the extent based upon the action of previous leaders at wells fargo and the need for reform in wells

and the regulators have been very clear as to what they want from us and charlie sharp and his leadership team that he's brought in is addressing the issues and moving forward. but it's a reality that we're living with. they did give us a break during the ppp program, and that was helpful. moving forward, he's doing what he needs to do to get wells fargo in shape the cap is what it is and we're addressing what the regulators have required of under the circumstances in an -- required of us and we will be very successful over time with or without the assets. >> is this a removal of 2020 event? >> oh, i doubt that. i think we're on a schedule. it's up to the fed really. they'll take it off when they think we're in the shape that we

need to be in, and i think that's appropriate charlie has said this repeatedly and we've got to get our act together and it laid out what we're about to do. >> bill, what can you tell us about how the economy's fairing right now from the perspective of wells fargo obviously they have deep relationships with banks and with people and companies across the country. what do you see right now? >> well, i think what most of your guests see, that is a very challenging period and the uncertainty of you talked a lot about this russian vaccine i think your skepticism is a proip ra pope rate and there is a skepticism about where we are going to be in three, four, five months the market gets excited as you know better than i about news like this. that's not real success. when you talk to real estate people and retail people, their concern is real.

obviously it will go down when you're a smaller business. we have a program going as a result of the -- charlie's decision to take all of our ppp fees, which are $400 million, to get to small businesses and help them recover from this dilemma and the needs seem to be not only greater than one would imagine but will be longer term. again, as we get back to the government having a hard time with the long-term economic dislocation, businesses have it even more so so we're trying to do all we can to create some relief, but i think most people see this as a much longer period than some of the people who see news like from russia today on vaccines and think we're right around the corner from getting this thing under control medically and getting our economy back i don't think that's the case. >> bill, want to thank you very

much for being with us today. >> thank you have a good day. thank you very much. >> thank you you, too all right. coming up, a special interview with ibm executive chairman ginni rometty. she will join us with an ambitious new project. getting them prepped for jobs of the future it's an important one. you won't want to miss it. let's check out shares of uber and lyft those companies were ordered by a california judge to classify drivers in that state as employees which would entitle them to the state of california. both uber and lyft we are seeing dow futures up nearly 300 points. gh sain on pace for maybe a eithtrght day of gains and we're back right after this. you say the customers make their own rules.

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plus, get $400 off when you pre-order the new samsung galaxy note20 ultra 5g. back to "squawk box. futures pointing to higher half a percent higher for the s&p 500. the nasdaq was pointing to about half a percent of gains a couple of hours ago but has slipped quite considerably as you can see is just about in the red the dow continues to lead up about 290 points or more like 3/4 of 1% that relates to the european indices up 2.5% this morning they added a percent or so to 1.5% of gains after news on the russian virus -- on the russian vaccine that we got earlier. oil prices up 2% gold slipping 2.4% this morning. down considerably given recent gains and the 10-year at 0.61%

moving higher. first time we've seen above 0.5 something in a long time in the meantime, the 27 largest employers in the new york area are this morning launching a coalition to prepare and build career pathways for new yorkers in diverse and under served communities. members of the new york jobs ceo council include j.p. morgan chase, mount sinai, google and ibm. joining us is ginni rometty and the council's executive director gayle mellow welcome to both of you good to see you this morning >> good morning. >> thank you >> gayle, this is a pretty ambitious take it looks like 100,000 jobs you're looking to create over the next ten years how did this come about? where -- what were the origins of the idea? >> the origins of the idea were sort of moving around for quite a while, almost a year ago, when

i think companies began to really realize that the issues of getting the right talent into their companies and making sure that that was a diverse talent has really come to the forefront. and as they came together, i think there was -- there's some leading companies. ibm is one of them really it was the understanding that particularly in new york city that coming together as a partnership would be able to scale something that really had an impact in a long-term way on new york city and on the viability and strength of the companies that are part of the coalition. >> ginni, ibm has been in new york for over 100 years. it's been based in new york. how do you come at this? what's your hope >> well, becky, as you know, this is a topic that we have focused on a long time i think i've been on the show

many times and this has all been about making this digital era an inclusive era and there are large, under served parts of the community that are not part of this economic equation so what this is in my mind really all about very clearly is economic opportunity it is the only way to solve things like racial justice or equality so this is, in my mind, one way that the private sector can come together and at this scale it really begins to be a movement for economic opportunity and our background, as you know, on this started with many efforts like ptek which involved community and other companies on this list, which has been a way to have six-year high schools that have 150,000 students coming through them. that will contribute to this effort which is 100,000 employees over ten years across the five boroughs of new york city >> ginni, i know at ibm you focused on this for a long time.

you call them new collar jobs and what is that can you give a couple examples of where you would put someone and place them in the organization >> yes we've come up with a name new collar because we wanted to come up with a positive way to describe a new pathway into all of our companies that did not necessarily require a four-year degree to get started. in fact, that is how we can bring and begin to bring many of these people into our companies. for example, cyber specialists, software engineers cloud specialists. i met a lady this week, emmy banks, here's an example she was in tteaching third and fourth grade for 17 years as a fiber specialist you're a young person coming out of high school with a community college. you are becoming baristas, nurses, becoming any one of those tech professions becky, this applies to all the

companies. it isn't just tech jobs. gail can talk about we're going to focus on health care. there's a health care need in this city, business services need in new york city. >> gail, how do you find the people who can be placed in these jobs what have you learned so far how do you ramp that up? >> the amazing thing, i think, is the partnerships. that it is both the businesses and the public education system in new york city, both the city and university of new york and new york department of education that are coming together to educate and to frame -- to make sure that the 21st century skills are a normal part of a student's interaction with all of their educational experiences. finding the people is not hard there are almost 200,000 people who go to the city university of new york what has been missing is this link, this link between the business and the education system and what we hope to do is

make that system less dysfunctional, lis fragmented and really smooth a path, not just so that people whose parents are professionals but for some of the kids that i have seen at community college, individuals who have never been in an office building. students who had never actually been in manhattan and they've lived in the queens or the bronx. part of it is reaching out and making sure there's a smooth path and they're effective and connecting over a scale. i think what's most impressive to me is that this is not a one-year focus, this is a ten-year focus these companies have come together for the long term and i think the partnership and the scale and the long-term prospects are really extraordinary in reaching the individuals that ginni has talked about people have been under served in

new york the pockets where the benefit of the thriving companies has not been fully felt and including them with companies so that in 20 years maybe one of these students will take ginni's place. >> gail, how much more difficult in the short term is this to do, bringing kids into offices, doing all of these things in an era of coronavirus when there's nobody in the offices? >> that's true the offices are virtual. it's not as if business has stopped, becky the process is really making sure that we're talking to each other, that there really is a partnership, which i have already begun to feel with extraordinary support from the companies and from the city university of new york and the new chancellor rodriguez and finding the actions that really make a difference. we're going to be an action-focused organization. we are not interested in theory and we're not interested in making something perfect 30 years from now we want to try things from now so we will, like any startup,

we're going to go for the minimal viable product to start, see what works, if it works, great. if it works, great, build on it. if it doesn't, let it go each one of the companies does training, apprenticeships, bringing them on what we want to do is bring on a whole different generation. >> you know, becky, if i can just add, i think one way to look at this since you're connecting the buy-in demand and you're getting the supply, building the right set of skills so it's a public/private partnership and then connecting it to the demand side but a really important piece on the demand side is getting all of our companies to change the way they do hiring to allow these people to come in without four-year degrees to get started. this to me is one of the most important things that has to happen on the demand side. we've been at it eight years 15% of our hiring last year in the united states was these types of people and it was 15% of a big number and even now you

mentioned during this pandemic we just added another 1,000 internships for kids coming out of ptec as an example. so there is openings in these skills in every one of these companies and it's a matter of them getting this skill not to be a mismatch with the population but to be a match i believe this is an unprecedented collaboration for new york city at a time it needs it the most because there was a miss mch befomatch before the p. there were over 1 million jobs but 400,000 unemployed this is about getting that match between openings and skills. >> ginni and gail, i want to thank you both for your time today. good to see you. we hope to get updates on how this is coming along. >> great thank you. >> thank you >> thank you we're just waiting for some producer price inflation data. we could check in on the 10-year and the futures whilst we wait the futures nicely higher

throughout the morning for the dow. 300 points gaining steam the s&p is up 17 points. the nasdaq though has slipped significantly into the red over the last couple of hours or so let's get the data rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago and has the numbers on ppi. >> wilf, they'll be coming out momentarily. we're expecting it up .3 on july producer price index double that and you hit the mark up .6. up .6. this is a really aggressive number much more intense than we were looking at the last time it was higher than .6 it was up .7 that was in the fall of 2018 if we go through it and we strip out the food and energy, we're up .5. that's .4 bigger than expected final trade month over month is up .3. more intense than expected all of these numbers are higher.

now let's go year over year. year over year final demand looking for a number down .7 after that down .4 do remember the high water mark on the negative sides here was in april of minus 1.2. if we look at that final demand. the year over year numbers a real rate of change over the months over month. how is it expected on the producer price index at least for the moment. the ten year wilf.

the ten year certainly reacting as if we're higher >> 6.2 steve liesman as well. steve, as rick says, it's short term slight tick up there's lots of factors you could point to i think the goal is there. they're going to like that i'm getting mixed thoughts on this

the constraints on the supply side is going to drive up prices sz finish consumer energy. came down a little bit consumer groups down but bottom line is it looks like we have not had -- we have had some constraints on the supply side that are pushing up demand pushing up prices along with all of this money flooding out whether or not you have a

monetary inflation phenomenon, i think we have to wait a little bit longer, wilf certainly this is one of those data points that you might look back to say, you know what, this was the beginning of it. i think it was a very long way to go because as supply opens up, as the economy opens up, you can have more supply and that should keep a lid on those supply constraints that are potentially pitching up the prices >> steve -- >> slightly better than expected ppi data in the ten year now at 0.624 sorry, brian >> no, no, no. just smelled like sidewalk sushi, that last mile for demand because everybody had supply chain disruptions. if you had to get your goods, you're going to pay whatever it takes to get it. we'll see steve all day long on cnbc coming up, going to switch gears. what boeing investors need to noah head of critical data out for them this morning, including where it's driving its focus

ahead of what could be another month of bad airplane order data oh, and by the way, you've still got the 737 max issue. speaking of airplanes, look at airline stocks right now they are, dare i say, taking off on hopes of a couple things, possibility of a working vaccine down the road. more bailouts and a slow return to travel. the tsa saying that more than 600,000 pflyers went through airports on sunday that is relevant because that's the first time over 800,000 passengers since march 17th. we are slowly returning to the skies. dow futures, they're in the clouds up 29anwee ck right after this [ thunder rumbles ]

[ engine rumbling ] [ beeping ] [ engine revs ] uh, you know there's a 30-minute limit, right? tell that to the rain. [ beeping ] for those who were born to ride, there's progressive.

still to come, boeing's got a big morning ahead of it. orders due out

we'll speak with top analysts and what investors should be paying closest attention to. stay tuned, "squawk box" back in a couple of minutes.

welcome back, everybody. boeing's stock coming back off of a strong monday performance shares up more than 5% on an increase in air passenger traffic. boeing still on a long road back after the pandemic and the 737 max crisis today we will get more information on the company's business when it reports orders and deliveries for the month of july phil lebeau joins us with more on that front. phil, good morning. >> reporter: becky, so far this year, when you look at the orders and deliveries from boeing, it has not been anything to write home about. not a surprise given the numbers with the 737 max and the covid-19 pandemic. when you look at the orders year to date, these are the numbers we're trying to show you through the month of june. you're looking at negative 784 planes backlog of 4500 planes and 737 max cancellations. they make up the bulk of the problems for boeing in terms of the negative orders this year. again, those are the numbers through june later today we'll get numbers for july

most analysts i have talked with have said, look, don't expect a whole lot for boeing you have airlines continuing to struggle both in terms of liquidity as well as just not seeing the numbers coming back as you take a look at boeing, remember, they are slowing down their 737 max production that was one of the announcements that came out last month, but they are gradually building more maxes. where they're at right now will eventually get up to 31 a month by 2022. that has been pushed out compared to where it was they announced that last month where it says here's new production rates here's the moment of optimism, if you will, if you are an investor in boeing and the airline stocks it's the fact that we are seeing a gradual increase in the number of passengers here in the united states keep in mind, however, still down 69 to 73% depending on the day. the numbers for yesterday, down 71%. the numbers on sunday, down 69%. so they're all generally within that range as you take a look at the

airline stocks, they are hoping for another $25 billion to be a part of the latest stimulus package that's being discussed in washington, d.c that would ensure payrolls through the end of march basically on the same terms as the previous 25 billion that they received from the treasury department and, finally, as you take a look at shares of boeing, keep in mind we also get their delivery news today. the delivery is one of the things we're focused on. what's happening with the 787 dreamliner they slowed down partially because of what's happening with covid-19 we'll get the numbers a little later on this morning. >> all right, phil stick around we certainly have been seeing this so-called reopening trade take shape this morning following russia's coronavirus vaccine claim. of course, claim is the big word here because we and scientists have little to no other information about this other than vladimir putin saying we have a vaccine and it works. the airline stocks are up four,

five, six, nearly 8% joining us is ron epstein, research analyst at b of a securities 185 price target which is below where the stock is now ron, it's easy to forget we're so focused on the lockdowns and pandemic there is a giant 737 max issue of which we have not gotten a lot of updates where do you think the company stands on that >> right the last data we had the faa did come out with four tasks that have to be done as part of the airworthiness directive on the airplane once it goes out for public comment and when the public comments come back the airplane presumably can get back into service by maybe november, december of this year. then they have to start delivering the airplane. the difficulty is this, boeing has 450 of them in inventory and there's about 400 of them on the ground at airlines that were

grounded there's 850 aircraft that have to enter back into service if that were to happen in one year, that's 71 airplanes per month. that's the highest delivery of all time history for 737s. it's hard to imagine that could happen in the current environment. one thing to keep an eye on is delivery rates >> i was going to say, we had that tsa number, 830,000 passengers on sunday, ron. that was down 65, 70% from the same time last year although it was the first time above 800,000 since march 17th in your analysis of boeing's stock, do you have to make some kind of assumption about when air travel returned to seminormal i mean, could it be years from now until we get 2 million passengers a day >> yeah, of course we do our assumption now, our modeling assumption for all of our commercial aerospace stocks including boeing is we get back

to approximately 2019 air traffic by 2023. it appears that that might be a little bit optimistic. the international air transport association pushed their numbers out to 2024. we're looking at 2023, sometime in that time frame that assumes, you know, to get to that number, that assumes that you have some sort of epidemiological fix that's otherwise probably by the middle of next year and it can get distributed if that gets delayed, things get pushed out, so on and so forth >> phil, you've got ron saying three years and that might be optimistic before we get to 2 plus million passengers a day which is the average is that what you're hearing from your industry contacts >> yes. >> this is a multi-year story even best case. >> you're focused on just the number of passengers here in the united states. you have to look at what happens

with international travel, long haul travel. it's been dead in the water now for several months it has improved in asia and in china in terms of traffic levels over there, but europe is still a mess we're a mess how many people do you know who have said, you know, i'm in the mood to take a trip to italy nobody is talking about it you can't do it now, but nobody is talking about it for next year, let alone two years down the road that's the other thing that people need to keep in mind is that long haul component ron, i'd be curious. what's your sense in terms of are you optimistic in terms of especially southeast asia starting to build some momentum for travel >> yeah. we've seen that, particularly the numbers in china have looked better we've seen some pickup in asia it's a key factor, particularly for boeing because boeing is real strange right now with the 787 and maybe ultimately with 777 x. the longer that market is hunky,

it's more difficult for boeing they cut their rates on 787 during a quarter it was down 6 per month. they were at 7 at their high at 14. that's a very profitable airplane for them from a cash perspective. the longer the long haul market is puncy, the more difficult it is for boeing to deliver, you know, their most profitable airplanes where they have a key competitive advantage over airbus that's something we watched very, very closely and then also tied to that, right, phil, is the business traveler, right? >> yeah. >> a big piece of international travel is the business traveler, that's even a bigger question when we'll see that come back. >> yeah. by the way, we're going to leave it there, ron. phil, i've got to correct you. everybody i know is talking about taking a trip to italy they're not going to go. but there is nothing else they want more to go. >> in their minds. >> in their minds they're on a beach in micanos sipping a glass

of wine. not going to happen, but they want to go phil and ron, good discussion on boeing very important stock in the markets overall. wilf, where are you going in your mind? >> to break. i'm being shouted at to go to break very quickly futures pointing nicely on the dow and the s&p. not on the nasdaq. we'll be back in a couple of mite nus. turn on my tv and boom, it's got all my favorite shows right there. i wish my trading platform worked like that. well have you tried thinkorswim? this is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks you're interested in. now this is what i'm talking about. yeah, it'll free up more time for your... uh, true crime shows? british baking competitions. hm. didn't peg you for a crumpet guy. focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. ♪ the volatility. the ambiguity. this moment calls for more. and northern trust delivers more. with specialized expertise.

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all right. coming up, futures, they keep going up and up next, jim's first take on the trading day ahead. the big market move. futures up and that vaccine news, allegedly, out of russia what does that mean for the markets? you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding

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welcome back, everybody. the big news this morning, russia says it has a working coronavirus vaccine. however, no scientific data has been released. and only about 100 people have apparently gotten this vaccine so far here's what former fda commissioner dr. scott gottlieb told us earlier on the show. >> i wouldn't take it. certainly not outside of the clinical trial right now it appears it's only been tested in several hundred patients at host most. >> let's get to cnbc headquarters, jim cramer joins us with more jim, what you do think >> i never go against gottlieb, the humerus of russia is interesting. i'd been in the j & j trial. i don't want to die from covid, but i'm certainly not going to say it works because alex

goresin, they're very reliable and very self-effacing with no hubris, hopeful for the best putin, he's a dictator i've got to tell you if it's j & j. versus russia, i'd take j. & j. any day it's not talked about, it's our duty to be able to see if we can't have the best. i am so anxious to be in the j & j. i would not be option to be in the russia >> no, i agree with you on that. you've been talking about the j & j trial for a little while are you definitely in the trial? >> it's being negotiated it's the trial for 65 and over it's the only one there is right now it's at brigham and women's, i'm happy to fly up there for the next one

when j & j does a trial, for heaven's sake, they're thought doing a trial wildly it's the antibody. i think the cocktail comes first. the cocktail saves us and then the vaccine, and the idea -- and dave i talked about this, the idea that a tamiflu comes first. but putin is incredible. i've got the vaccine, i know people taking it my family is taking it i remember when digil martin fr merck said his wife was taking vioxx. they still pulled the product. >> jim, i know you have a lot more to say about this market's up by 250 points. we'll tune in. >> putin's selling tech. his daughter is selling tech, his daughter's buying the

airline. >> he says that people listen. but we will be listening to you in just a few minutes. thanks, jim. >> thank you >> becky, whatever you put it down to, markets are moving higher and the s&p closed in on a record high and just a few points off, as futures stand at the moment let's -- oh, we have a sound bite, sorry. here's what jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon said on the "today" show >> with the insurance, unemployment, et cetera, to get us through the next three to six months as we open up we're going have to open up, it can be done safely and soundly >> sam, chief strategist at cra joins us how sam, the markets are high, it's actually a rotation, dow is down, off of broad optimism off this potential buyer's news? >> good morning, wilfred well, i think it's not

specifically focused on the russia virus information but, rather, the implication that the whole world is getting closer to some sort of a vaccine. some sort of a cocktail, as jim just mentioned so, it's really, just, i think, enthusiasm that we are progressing from a health care perspective. >> but we're also, of course, seeing the lack of any final stimulus bill, yet cyclical stocks, let bank stocks which you think would rely quite heavily on that stimulus bill rallying the most in the last couple of days and this morning, in the futures market does that make sense to you? >> well, i think it does i think congress can certainly teach hollywood a thing or two about drama. and that's what they're doing. and i believe there will be a stimulus package but i think because of the disagreement going on so far that implies that we're not likely to get an additional package beyond this. we're seeing a bit of a rally in anticipation of a final passage. >> yield is up, ten-year 0.2%.

banks up because of that in the premarket. are they attractive? >> i don't think they're necessity attractive at this point. i think also the ppi data came in stronger than anticipated so the implication for those worrying about inflation starting to rise could be the response but i think this year, next year, we're going to don't keep inflation in check >> and, sam, gold moving in the opposite direction today does profit-taking there make sense to you >> yes, it does. probably bringings down below the $2,000 level because i think we moved above strongly that millennial level and usually, we tend to take some profits after such large numbers. but i don't think that the rally is over. i think we'll probably end up seeing a bit of a digestion and work our way high. >> sam stoveall, thanks so much. >> my pleasure

folks, let's get a final check of the markets as we've been telling you the market has been up all morning long dow futures up 327 points s&p, but by 16. the one laggard has the nasdaq, down by 54 wilf, brian, thank you for being here today >> pleasure as always. >> okay. wilf, we'll see you later today. brian, tomorrow morning. folks join us back here tomorrow morning. right now it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ good morning, and welcome to "squawk on the street. i'm david faber with jim cramer. carl has the morning off let's get a look at futures as we get started with trading a half hour from now as we've seen just heard from the gang on "squawk," we're looking up, we're looking up, a lot. potentially at least, not from the nasdaq, though but all -- or a lot of this, a result of, jim