>> it's 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. here's your top five at five why your next guest says investors will not hold their breath for all time highs. sector that prepared for the worst of the pandemic surging. we'll tell you why and the names to watch the shake up amid the on going crisis a 4,000% return, yeah.

how one hedge fund may be getting ready for double or nothing after a historic run to the march bottom this is monday august 17th, this is worldwide exchange. >> what a day to start the week. appreciate you joining us to kick off your weekend here on cnbc and see record breaking remarkable rally can roll on and futures indicating that it can and it might

but still they are off the s&p 500 is now up 45%. it's now just 0.6% how is that for a pacific. hitting an all time intraday high if we go more than just a half a percent we have a new closing high and there's now four dow components that are each up more than 10% that's in august by the way. traditionally the worst month of the market where is the money coming from people may be selling bonds to buy stock because you may not know this but it's huge for the last few days. the ten yore yield surging 25% yes, i know that's only to 0.7%

of what we are right now but a five day, 25% move in treasury yields is almost unheard of. it also means that mortgage rates may have bottomed out and we continue to watch the metals, a historic ride for gold perhaps coming to an end, maybe. falling nearly 4% last week. a nine week long win streak. also seeing the first down week. let's go worldwide now to kick off the week of your global trade. some of your top stories from around the world he's in our london newsroom with that and more. hey, good to see you. >> hey, good morning to you. we'll get to your minors in a minute because i think the story is very interesting. let's tell you why japan's weaker through the session as the economy shrinks at the fastest on record in the second quarter so that was all

about the data but the chinese markets rallying here on the central bank injections of liquidity. they're rolling over loans to financial institutions that was good. 2% on the chinese market, it's outlook on a 43% drop on half year profits well it's a mixed story as well. getting some support from that stimulus in china. and you particularly see that in indices that have a lot of mining stocks. rising infection clusters and germany has issued a fresh travel warning on spain.

they're in the red on the back of the spike in covid cases. let me send it back to you. >> yeah. i appreciate it. good morning there's a semiannual review of the phase one trade deal and didn't get an explanation for the delay but it's possible a chinese leadership meeting may have affected the timing of the talk they may want to give them more time to live up to his end of

the deal to roll back his multimillion dollar parachute it's false for mcdonald's but in a statement to cnbc, mcdonald's says it stands by his complaint. both the factual assertions and the court in which it was filed. and the dean of harang gets voir dire's school of public health is calling on companies to put public health professionals on the board and in the top executive ranks to manage the pandemic threat. in comments to the financial times, covid-19 layed bare how essential it is to be prepared for man made disasters

they have gone out and hired independent experts and diseases and the like to come on and advise their companies about best practices it's a big change in the way they conduct business frlth it's probably smart too scientists seem to agree that they'll be with us for awhile. we'll see you in a few minutes thank you very much. >> sure. >> all right back now to the markets. you have to put your inflation hat on because the signs are coming that inflation after years of being nowhere is finally there. the chief investment officer of the advisory book. he joins us now. good morning, by the way

happy monday or just a temporary surge. raw materials to pay whatever it takes to get there and just wondering if it's going to stick arou around. >> it's been so disrupted and break out inflation stats. we have services inflation and goods inflation. and driven by rents and medical costs. we always had this good deflation and i think it will

continue >> all right we can get that signal back up maybe it's a storm whatever it might be once we get you back on, maybe you can call in the cnbc newsline it takes two seconds these days to get things back up and running. all right. so let's assume your inflation commentary is correct. a bit of a cooling off at the end of next week what do we do? >> the commodity space has been the bombed out space of the market certainly energy, agriculture, and we have to start changing our mind set on the market

it may be shifting and work over the next couple of years we get a vaccine that we are going to get in the last part of this year and our life or health or wellbeing and it could be to demand and could trigger that higher inflation i think high stocks like the inflated technology stocks will be vulnerable and fixed income and longer term traits will be vulnerable and investors need to start keeping their eye on the third year treasury bond as it's sort of messaging on the marks expectations about growth and inflation because the ten year has been neutered by the fed with talk of a yield curve and i think that they'll continue to rally as we get deeper negative yields and a weaker dollar.

>> fair point. >> the advisory group, always a pressure you have a great day and a great week we'll see you soon. >> all right when we come back, do not adjust your television set. that is right, we're going to talk about one hedge fund that just locked in a 4,000% return since march. hoping for the rest of 2020. leslie with a big exclusive. she will be here to break it down plus more dysfunction in d.c why nancy pelosi says she's willing to cut the um isser vacation short and it's not about stimulus talks we'll get a live report from d.c. coming up later, move on there's a new bidder in town that are favorites to buy the syw york mets. bu week ahead. we're back right after this. ♪ i keep working my way back to you, babe ♪

♪ with a burning love inside ♪ yeah i'm working my way back to you, babe ♪ ♪ and the happiness that died ♪ i let it get away servicenow. the smarter way to workflow.

and it's a cocktail of options trading with risk mitigations and you can imagine how the volatility early this year powered their return to the atmosphere now still it's controversial

the more conventional topic of diversification. they missed out on about a million dollar pay out massive point also recently published research saying it did not make sense for long-term risk mitigation. now that lead to some mud sl slinging in may. and the scientific adviser we're going to ask about all of this and more in about five hours. we'll get to hear from the universal founder and cio in a cnbc exclusive his first tv interview since posting the 4,000% returns. >> 4,000%. how terrible that is that twitter fight was pretty much epic and i had the privilege to meet both of those gentlemen. i consider them both half right. i want to ask you this much -- >> very diplomatic. >> the market is now -- >> yes

that's me. mr. diplomacy. the market is now back at record highs as we all know what a bounce back off the march low so how does that effect strategy because i would imagine they profit from volatility but is it volatility both ways up and down? >> so that is going to be my first question for them, brian because you're right the markets are back at heightened conditions today and look nothing like they did back in march who remembers march at this point with markets, you know, back at record highs but they, you know, the firm itself, a source close to the firm said that they have posted about 100% annualized returns every year since the reception but they do benefit from a rising tide as well just not the same kind of 4,000% returns. beggars can't be choosers at this point >> one more question again, i

know that you showed it. show it again. when is the interview? how do we see it >> 10:00 a.m. right here on this network, cnbc. thanks brian. >> it's on cnbc? i'm definitely going to watch. >> it's here. >> 10:00 a.m. >> amazing l leslie's interview is on cnbc. assist awesome big time interview leslie, we appreciate it and that's a super genius first question we'll see you soon have a great day take care. all right. on deck, banks, e-commerce and entertainment. warren buffet's berkshire hathaway and apaloosa did with their cash in the past month and a half we'll go whale watching when worldwide exchange returns

i had saved up some money and then found the home of my dreams. but my home of my dreams needed some work sofi was the first lender that even offered a personal loan. i didn't even know that was an option. the personal loan let us renovate our single family house into a multi-unit home. and i get to live in this beautiful house with this beautiful kitchen and it's all thanks to sofi.

welcome back we have a billion dollar bio deal to tell you about this morning. it's an all cash offer sanofi will pay off $100 per share. they focus on treatments from multiple sker lclerosis and a re of auto immune disorders it's the second largest pharma

deal this year it's slightly above the price. the deal is for $100 a share it's the sticker at 101. all right. let's get a check on this morning's other top headlines including continued tough times out west they deal with record breaking heat and more. he's in new york now with that and more good morning. >> good morning. violence erupts in belarus tens of thousands of protestors flooded the streets clashing with police and calling for the country's authoritarian president to re-sign election results from earlier this month were rigged that election gave him a 6th term in office wildfires are sweeping across the california landscape right now. high temperatures and dry conditions are the perfect combination to feed the flames the sweltering heat is straining the power grid knocking out the likes of 300,000 customers over the weekend. power officials are urging them

to prepare for the possibility of more outages. and the new york mets may soon have a enough owner. according to a usa today group, alex rodriguez and jennifer lopez is viewed as the favorite to purchase the team the celebrity couple is willing to spend between 225 and $300 million of their own money on that offer brian, back to you >> wow look at that could be the new owner of the mets i mean the mets. thank you very much. appreciate it. >> all right huge results from a new study that may shed some light and how the world may end up getting through the pandemic it's a big story i tweeted out over the weekend it's time to build up your cash

reserves and the dow futures are up 50. we're back right after this. hike!

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the big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. . >> lawmakers being called back to washington with a growing political show down surrounding the post office.

the upcoming election, the major company getting involved in the fight. and president trump signaling more pressure maybe coming for chinese companies following tiktok and this is worldwide exchange >> welcome back in good monday morning to you it's exactly 5:27 eastern time thanks for joining us to start off your week. why don't we kick it off by checking out your new markets. really record breaking remarkable rally can roll on and futures indicating that it just might do that. dow futures are up by 40 points. not huge gains but they're up nonetheless. of course coming off more gains last week. the s&p 500 now more than 45% since the march 2020 low

it is now, if you are counting at home, 0.61% not to be overly specific from hitting an all time intraday high the dow nearly 2% last week and as we showed you earlier there's actually four dow components boeing, disney and 3m up 10% last month you missed out a lot of gains. look at those returns. where is the money coming from some of the people selling bonds to buy stocks. we noted bond yields, they have big moves in the last couple of days the ten year yield up 25% last week yes, we are still near historic lows on yields, i get it but a 5 day, 25% move in treasury yields, it's almost unheard of but an inflation theme also

means that mortgage rates go to refinance may. of course we continue and the first down week in the last 2.5 months both are higher right now. now let's get more now on the developing story out of washington around the post office nancy pelosi is telling lawmakers she is calling them back this week to the growing political crisis surrounding the post office and the election >> in washington the fight over the post office is all ability the election the postal service is also

important for the economy. and that's why they're jumping into the fray. they are all part of a coalition of businesses calling on congress to authorize $25 billion in emergency funding to stabilize the post office. $25 million has intended to stem the financial losses during the pandemic and it still wouldn't be enough to solve the long-term budget woes and the net loss was $8.8 billion 70% of microbusiness according to an internal survey.

they spend on average $359 a month. and to vote on a bill that would require the post office to maintain the level of operation and service in january that does not say anything about giving the post office any more money. then back to you >> it's amazing how big of a deal that has become ten years ago it lost 8.5 billion. if somebody is surprised with the post office losses it's bizarre and losing money for decades. is there any bipartisan movement on this issue. the interesting thing here is that this bill

and senator susan collins is one of the ones pushing for this legislation. and in order to vote on this legislation and you do see that there is some support among republicans for doing something to help the post office. the question really is at the tone and whether or not the president would agree to it. >> the post office becomes the latest hot button political issue out there. lost 3.5 billion in the third quarter of 2010. it's not a new story a big story now with the election. >> when it comes to markets, lawmakers maybe returning to d.c. but there's no indication they may also try to work on the stimulus package stocks seem to ignore the lack of a deal. could that all be about ready to change. >> and equity strategies

great to see you again, buddy. you have been bullish in pre-covid. i remember having you on set you have been right. you do remain optimistic at the record highs i think the biggest story in the market right now is that we are exiting recession. that's a very powerful driver. you can think about the business cycle and it's effect on markets. there's some things that we need to get you certainly had the stimulus, uncertainty, i'd love to have something on the vaccine front but i do think that's forth coming but you tonight want to have that economic momentum and it seems like it's reaccelerated in july and early august you tonight want to see that be wasted by a lack of an additional fiscal support that's needed so it would be really enkour

encouraging that when congress decides to come back to washington they address this issue. they recess in the first place. >> where are you seeing value in the markets right now? domestically, internationally, if anywhere given the heighten valuations. >> look, historically, small caps do about 25% better than large caps do in first year following a recession bottom so that's an area that has our focus. i think secondly you rarely hear me say this. and europe seems to have a little bit more cohesion and it's value in those early stages of an economic recovery. they get hit hardest on the way down at least the ones that are going to survive

we think that value can recover here. >> it's amazing because obviously you may have heard about the pandemic eventually that will end news on that coming up later in the show lo longer term. the single besting story in years. that was me texting you and saying thank you for coming on the show in terms of the u.s. china dynamic. this is a huge issue two countries fighting over technologies in industrial resolution while tensions have been disruptive to economics in the market one thing unique to not lose sight of is the value is back.

they're going to be worth more i think it's going to be a key issue for a number of years. and two we remain the center of innovation and that's going to last for quite awhile >> yeah, it certainly will how do you invest around it you buy puts as protection is there something that you can do to hedge it you wake up every morning to see what the headlines might be. >> better intellectual property and protection while lowest tax rates in the world that's an advantage.

also it will be apart of this revamped supply chain and then secondly when you're investing in emerging markets. a lot of times when you do a broad index or etf that's a china story. maybe you don't want to do this. maybe you want to be more selective and be able to choose which countries within emerging markets you like better or worse. maybe you want to be more invested in countries like mexico or india and not have the broad index that's dominated by china. that's two ways to focus on the u.s. and small companies and be selective in the end >> focus on u.s. and small companies and we appreciate it we'll have you back on again soon have a great day >> all right now to your morning's top stories outside of the world of money and business and maybe, just maybe, some good news from researchers on the potential path forward contessa is back now with more on that.

>> he is monitoring immune responses to corona tvirus, foud that people infected with the virus continue to show signs of anti-bodies for three months afterwards some say this could mean that disease fighting anti-bodies resist even after it's resolved and even in patients that developed only mild symptoms now the cdc sent out a weekend memo warning that the results don't imply point blank immunity only that the person may not be tested again within three months after testing positive but these are fines moving forward. they may not be the only chinese company facing scrutiny. at a press conference this weekend president trump suggested he may put pressure on companies including alibaba as the u.s. continues to criticize their handling of personal data. they could end service in

california as soon as this week as they fight an order requiring and those companies are pushing for a referendum in november that could exempt them from this law, brian >> a lot of big news in this any good news that we can get on possible herd immunity outside is potentially there and we all like this to go. you can use your power for good. several major names set to roll out their quarterly results.

who can be the big winner if we all go wild on retail spending but first, some of your other top stories, a new report from the new york times suggested a small fraction from 2016 have given as much to his re-election effort this time around. nbc players and staff. it's less expensive and less invasive than the nasal swab going about six feet up your nose that bypassed the fda's regular approval process ibm announced a new processor chip for data centers that will be able to handle three times the workload of its predecessor. the company tapped samsung the manufacturer of the chip worldwide exchange is back right after this ♪

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last week prove what we all thought which is in a time of lock down people maybe spend either out of bordem or frustration or something to do retail sales have been off the charts but only in certain areas. outside of the biggest of the big, who is winning the consumer retail dollar? >> good morning. well, we are really expecting for the players to do well and i think the consumer continues to be focused on their home and making sure that their home is comfortable either if it's because they're working from home or soon back to school is coming so making sure that their kids have everything that's going to help them during this time of schooling. so those have really been something that we're looking forward to where the consumer is doing that and also again, they have much better and it makes the consumer have a seemless shopping experience and also makes them feel safe so those are the ones that we're looking

forward to so home depot, lowes and target and walmart obviously. >> yeah, with home depot and w lowes, if you have nothing to do and nowhere to go and you have income you'll probably do a home improvement project. we know that they have been moving for months now. are there any other that are maybe quite. >> we're looking at that off price market the consumer may want to shop and it's going there they really follow the consumer needs and we expect them to also continue looking at it and do it yourself as well as target so that's where those dollars

and again, a quite winner. off price is also taking share from department store and mall so that's another cause. >> yeah. and the tj maxxs from the world, they buy up excess inventory for maybe pennies or dimes on the dollar and then sell it to us, discount it to us but they make a lot of money all of these retailers going bankrupt, i have to imagine it's a field day for tj maxx buyers, they'll have their choice of super discounted but high quality inventory from a lord and taylor et cetera. >> what's excellent about them is they can have a more modern model where they can be closer to the buying season or have open dollars to say this is excellent. let me put my money toward that.

department stores used a very old model and they bought five months ahead, six months ahead even a year ahead. you don't know that the weather might be the same thing that they are going to need a jacket for. so again that's been something that has been so close and that's something that we're seeing play out in retail now. because of all of these that were cancelled or orders going forward. >> big retail earnings we appreciate you kicking it off for us thank you very much. have a great week. bye bye. >> bye bye. >> on deck, your morning rbi and the high price that you may be paying at the lumberyard for your next project. something we just talked about and plus the big moves by warren

buffet in the second quarter we'll talk to you about what you should be doing with your money right now. and we are back right after th ♪

♪ i keep working my way back to you, babe ♪ ♪ with a burning love inside ♪ yeah i'm working my way back to you, babe ♪ ♪ and the happiness that died ♪ i let it get away servicenow. the smarter way to workflow.

probably the first time ever they rose about 12% just last week and gone up 8 of the past nine weeks they're at the highest level

since training in 1969 and they haven't just set new records a thousand feet of 2 by 4s is now $760 the previous high, 650 so if you're looking to build something using a lot of wood, let's hope that money does grow on trees speaking of money, in 13 filings, that's the fcc when you file your big investor you have to file it, they acquired 21 million shares of barrett gold or 563 million in the past 45 days a long time kritcritic of buyine metal itself thinks it could be a sea change in buffet's strategy so selling some banks and buying

gold also watch big moves from the fund appaloosa p paypal disney and mastercard those are the names. you also have to watch sis coe one guest he was buying two weeks ago. he was buying that and this is syy. this is the food company and 1.9 million shares in the previous quarter there's the names to watch as we go whale watching. back down at the broader market at the s&p 500 new all time highs despite the markets continued

climb higher, any time will preserve the market pulled back. ceo, fund manager and cnbc contributor. you have the start like i do of a long day today which is fantastic to have you on listen, we have been waiting for this pull back since the march lows you know, the market just continues to go higher is there anything that you see that indicates a pull back may be forth coming? >> i think that there could be a lot of emotion coming up in the next several months. i have clients that are really genuinely worried about the election so you have the election and vaccine coming but the timing isn't definite yet that emotion could come in and create bumpiness and rockiness within that we're still upward trending but that's long-term for me it's not unique. we're upward trending forever and there's always big bumps

really significant bumps too along the way. what would tlahat be china or volatility or what? >> it's fear and disappointment along the way. let's say there's a vaccine in december or january and those projections get pushed off until february or march. that disappointment could weigh on the market. if the election becomes more uncertain than it is and things start to get volatile around who is likely to win that could create this anxiety. i don't think that the market is going to be derailed by huge earnings disappointments or by big economic data.

but getting back to this article i don't think that's great advice for everybody what it's saying is its saying, we've had a big client take advantage of stocks tumbling okay that's short-term advice for people with short-term needs so if you have short-term needs like tuition or a new car or you're buying a house, then take some cash, put it on this line if you're a long-term investor, that's ridiculous. don't listen to that article because overtime, the market will continue to climb in the long run and you're not getting it right in terms of taking cash now and getting back in at exactly the right time to create great long-term returns if the market just tumbles based on emotion over the market. over the election. based on emotion over disappointment over a vaccine. so read that article but it's not for everybody.

>> you're probably the guy that also hits on 17 on the black jack table and pays off over time where are you seeing -- you always brought us these great ideas under the radar. where are you seeing value right now? >> so i love these and this really supports what i have been seeing -- or what i have been expecting from the market where i think that we don't need the big guys we don't need apple, amazon, google, we don't need them and there's tremendous value in the other 490 stocks so one of the things that he added which i have been talking about our ownership in in a long time is at&t where you have a stock trading with a 7% dividend yield. a tiny multiple. paying down debt faster than they can, you know, than they expected it to you have him adding things like verizon, sorry, visa and t-mobile there's value. so it was interesting to see him

trimming his position and i think there is value in banks. particularly if we do see inflation or interest rates rise so i don't own wells fargo but that's a great idea. >> well, hey, buffet was selling and he was buying. two smart successful guys i'll see you on fast money at 5:00 p.m. tonight. tune in. squawk is next you say the customers make their own rules.

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it's monday august 17th, 2020. squawk box begins right now. and good morning welcome to squawk box on cnbc.