>> is this it? >> parting is such sweet sorrow. >> what about tomorrow >> i don't know. >> none of us do none of us do. >> thanks. it was great having you, scott see you again soon good luck today on "halftime." i'll be watching "squawk on the street" is coming up next good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla big week of retail earnings and futures are steady and oil is flat our road map begins with wall street record watch. the s&p set to open near new highs as goldman lifts its forecast postal politics as democrats call the house back and china crackdown. the white house now says it's looking at restrictions on ali baba jim, a lot to watch today. good to be back with you

>> good to be back with you. you did mention very important piece, which is david's piece and he's a friend of the show. talking last night i was reading it and thinking can we really go higher he has a piece that says we will blast higher that will be something that i think a lot of people would be suspect, little critical of because we're going right into the election he doesn't seem to mind that david's work is high quality and i just really think that he is just saying, it is time. and wouldn't that be something if we have a big, big move here. >> it's fascinating. he does say, jim, as you point out, the election does remain a risk but 3,600 year end and 3,800 in 12 months is a 6% gain and earnings estimate, jim, for next year 170. i mean, i remember when they thought 150 might be a risk. >> i just have to tell you, i wish everyone could get goldman's research i was fortunate enough to get that piece because it is a very

logical piece because how there are many parts of the economy that are good. there's also, augmented by sayi saying, you don't want to be in bonds. shortage in equities just an extraordinary piece because it's just kind of so matter of fact i mean, there is a beginning of the piece is about how, can you believe where we are but after that, it's like, okay, our next move is substantially higher and i think people have to recognize we spend so much time talking about how crazy it is that we might go to all-time highs. he's talking about how crazy and how not crazy it is to be able to expect a big move from here very, very bullish piece, carl and exciting exciting let's not forget that. >> and they're not alone, jim. rbc and starting to up their targts and i wonder if you think that chase is truly going to be on once we get past these couple weeks of the dog days of august. >> i think it is august was supposed to be so bad. we're going to get an inkling

when we see invidia this week which is a stock that has been on fire and we get the retailers. i think we could have kind of a grand slam of retail being positive you know, we've got industrial being positive semiconductors being positive and health care being positive it's a grand slam. yeah, so the banks, energy, big deal buffe buffe buffett's a seller >> buffett's action on the banks. you mention the retail earnings still to come. the big thought has been, okay, walmart is going to give us a sense of how consumers are fairing with some of these expirations expiring at least in full as we wait for a bridge or a fill in. but then you get a story like today in the journal on foot traffic at home depot up 35 since april. >> and we are hearing that this is just the time for the big retailers. diana olick mentioned something when she talks about the sky

rocketing lumber price home depot bought it much lower. you can imagine how much they could make on lumber it's a key to their numbers and let's not forget in the piece it just talked about people have nothing to do. when you have nothing to do, you improve your home and then there is this incredible when you look at the decline in toll roads and the declines in public transit, you know people have fled. you know, i was looking, i was trying to figure out marriott vacation worldwide extending the fact that people want time shares i just think, carl, it's a wholesale revolution about where people live, work from home. no one wants to go back to work. everyone's scared. wow. what a time. >> yeah. are we done worrying about the consumer, jim? or are we still waiting for congress to assemble something that the white house can pass? >> i think we're not done. i think that there are still lots of smaller businesses that

are holding on and are still open but i think that the moves that we're seeing and the wall marts and target are arbenjuwhae going to come. remember, there's ton of small businesses associated with every university, but there always is a target or a walmart lurking and i think that this is going to be the push comes to shove where we're going to see the indebted retailers have a very hard time. i think that, look, you can get an easy comparison from quarter to quarter for something like a kohl's or an l brands but those are short-term trades. this is about either getting a lot of inventory in from the guys who went under. that's tjx and burlington and ross stores or about the champs amazon, target, home depot, let's not forget lowe's, right and then, of course, walmart it's the winners get bigger. on the wall, we have a couple. foot locker we already know is

doing well one to watch, thursday estee lauder this is a zoom play. i'm not kidding. when you wear your mask, you break out. you break out. i'm not kidding. have you ever noticed everyone is breaking out. understand the break out issue john oliver focused on my brunch yesterday and it is interesting to see all of us are suffering from breakout and i'm not trying to minimize what people are really suffering from. estee lauder is ready with cleansing products and not just the usual products they have he saw it coming he said it was going to be he said it was going to be a zoomy issue and that's his new word for it and look out that may be the big surprise of the week look at that chart look at that chart >> your long-standing thesis about -- it's essentially a vanity plate, right? >> wbefore it was instagram and

now selfies and translated to zoom >> the selfie generation and now zoomy generation he goes to china and different from peter navarro because he meets with influencers and the chinese are back buying makeup but the world have problems with masks and i don't want to get too particular about who i know has problems with masks when you go to the clubs or you go anywhere, everyone is like, how are you? how's it going wow. >> it's a huge shift in our cultural habits, jim all that said, all that said, the enthusiasm about the markets overall from goldman and the enthusiasm we'll see regarding retail, what do we make of buffett tripping jpm and following through on his promise to lower the airlines and then buying barrack

>> we had dr. mark bristol on last week. i think selling wells fargo right here after charlie comes in and replaces all this team, i think it's a little late on that, frankly. goldman was a finish of a sell he had been in the first quarter and continuing to buy bank of america. isn't just leaving the banks i don't want to sell wells fargo when charlie sharp has his own team in there. warren buffett, look, a fellow over there in an outfit called merrill bar stool, no, solomon bar stool. i forget the name. complaining endlessly that warren buffett is not at the top of his game. we have to dismiss dave for doing that because it's unfair but, well, i think some of these moves are late and i do believe that gold, remember, they're using $13 base price at barrack

and combined the nevada properties and they're really good i like the gold call but selling wells fargo with charlie, ouch. charlie turned around and total technologist and he's got his team in and i think it's a shame. he at wells fargo throughout the downturn and now he starts selling it i don't know i'm interested to see what the complainer over there is saying. >> we always say the 13 are steal by nature. new stakes in visa and paypal and mastercard and disney. strategies going into the last couple quarters of the year. >> i'm a home gamer. i do love them and i find that we don't know, look, we've got some fantastic notes this morning jpm raising the payment process is doing incredible. going into disney was a gutsy move because you had to believe that disney plus was going to be great. pretty soon we'll be going to

the movies again conscious it was in a rainy weekend and now we'rer a eafraid getting covid g to the movies. i feel like they're spot on with the processors i don't know what stocks paypal. that's just a juggernaut >> yeah. and then, some of the other moves we got from these filings. ackman upping lows we talked about home rebuilding. and third point we already knew about some of their steps and new stakes in facebook and baba which is making news for other reasons today. the president said, in fact, they're looking at some new restrictions >> alibaba has the most u.s. financials but hardly a moment that the president doesn't try to put the squeeze on china. i think that taiwan is the biggest, that's the one i'm most worried about in terms of the chinese saying, listen, i'm done

we're going to take, we're going to extract whatever we can get from taiwan and semi and steal all their intellelleintellectua. ellison has finally gotten that e-commerce side down he's done a remarkable job taking that company into the 21st century when we see ellis' numbers he's still going to say he's not there. he is a humble man but he's making progress. i like that call >> as far as china goes, jim, there's, of course, this report out of reuters that commerce is tightening, once again, restrictions on huawei and looking at tiktok and no formal steps on baba. but that meeting to take stock of where we are on phase one getting delayed looks more interesting in news of this huawei news. >> qualcomm was trying to do more business on the nonstrategic which is the 5g

if the white house deems 5g as strategic, look out. not just huawei who runs our 5g technology we're still ahead in some of the 5g technology. i find that the president and peter navarro and peter was very honest that he doesn't really know what the president is thinking and peter comes on tv and basically cold warrior the situation because that's what he's been. sometimes i feel he's soft on technology he doesn't like it when i say that >> soft on technology. >> soft on technology because he's not worried enough about what they're going to do about stealing our technology. he used to be very strong in intellectual property stealing is he worried about taiwan semi like i am? the most important company when it comes to our semiconductors and we are at their mercy if we don't protect them and i urge people to look into the situation. i have known peter since i was a child.

>> we were back in the throws of sort of crisis in march and april and hold up on ramping escalation and now it sounds like you think we have caution to do just do that >> i think we have a head of steam coming into this economy obviously, i still hope that we get an agreement between the democrats and republicans. but let's just take the averages what are the strong stocks in the averages it's technology. and technology is that's where we need to worry i really do not like it when washington tries to crack down on google and facebook because they've been shutout of china since day one. i worry about apple at all times. the chinese if they made a commitment to apple, they would back off they need to make a sign a sign that says we want this to end. we want to make peace. we're going to buy apple stuff and then the president might just say, okay but they haven't made any sign

they made no sign whatsoever that they want peace none they are -- they'll want, they'll step right up but taiwa semi is what we have to worry about. not those stocks those are faang. remember when netflix was going to go big in china they won't even let them there what are they worried about? what has netflix got some new thing that they should worry about or the fellow with the pictures what is that netflix hasn't had a lot of new stuff lately >> yeah. we're going to drill down on more on that this morning, jim we'll get to some of the sell side calls this morning as deutsche goes tactical buy on gm and got an upgrade of teledock and night one of the democratic national convention. 'rba ia nusiveti wee ckn mite this is decision tech.

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the big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. voting by mail remains in focus as we get closer to election day speaker pelosi calling the house back to vote on legislation regarding recent changes at the postal service let's get to more on that and how big business fits in the picture. good morning, ing ylan. >> good morning, carl. the fight in washington over the postal service is all about the election and the post office is also really important to the economy and that is why corporate america is now jumping into the fray. amazon, cvs, ebay and etsy all

part of a coalition of businesses that are calling on congress to authorize $25 billion in emergency funding to help stabilize the post office the group is running a six-figure add campaign across eight states and wraps up today and they say the money is necessary to help stem the financial losses that the post office faces during the pandemic, but they acknowledge not enough to solve the long-term problems the last year the postal service brought in $71.3 billion in revenue, but it faced $80 billion in expenses. the net loss was $8.8 billion. now the delay at the post office is also threatening the nation's smallest businesses. 70% of microbusinesses those with ten employees or less say they use the post office and they spend on average $359 a month. that compares to only 40% who say they use private carriers. now, as you mentioned, house speaker nancy pelosi has called

lawmakers back into session to vote on a relatively narrow bill that would require the post office to maintain the level of service that it provided back in january. but, guys, that bill does not include any new funding, at least not yet. back over to you >> ylan, really quick. the post master general, of course, being called to testify. thoughts on that and then chief of staff meadow suggesting that, in fact, if it was a narrow funding for usps, probably would get the white house backing, correct? >> well, i'll point out there is bipartisan support for adding money to the post office the question is, how much and how it would be directed but democrats don't trust meadow's statement on cnn that he made. they feel like he doesn't necessarily speak for the president and that this has been a retractable negotiation so far. they know this vote is not going to go anywhere in the senate at least as how it is currently written but they hope the real star of the show is monday's hearing when they bring the

postmaster general before congress >> all right yl ylan thanks. any ties we might make to amazon as ylan mentioned. >> i'm more concerned about the idea that we have an election in doubt, which would just be, what a nightmare. i mean, so many people who want, there's a bunch of states including new jersey where we'll vote by mail and i'm really concerned that the election would somehow be invalidated which would be, as we know, something like what happened in 2000 which was the beginning of rough in the market. let's hope that doesn't happen, carl i mean, they need money. they need money. and i know that speaker pelosi is not happy with the way it's run and speaker pelosi is going to get her end but i know ylan m talking about

the notion of bipartisan support. but i'm not seeing it. >> they actually mentioned new york 12, the democratic primary, which took six weeks to count and determine the winner and this was just a primary. >> i know. look, everyone -- been unbelievably good just talking about what happens and complacency. and i'm concerned, i mean, am i going to vote in person as i have for the last 25 years i don't know they send it to me and i'd rather do that i'll push the button and wearing my gloves and do all that. everyone is afraid i think this is really, really important, carl. i know we're thinking about it and i'll use the two words it has the hanging chad feel >> 81 days yeah jim, coming up, meet the head of a hedge fund which generated returns of more than 4,000% in

q1 amid the pandemic-induced selloff. we'll hear what mark spitznagel has to say about his strategy and what works from here that's later this morning on "squawk on the street. so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks you're interested in. now this is what i'm talking about. yeah, it'll free up more time for your... uh, true crime shows? british baking competitions. hm. didn't peg you for a crumpet guy. focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. ♪ come on in, we're open. ♪ all we do is hand you the bag. simple. done. we adapt and we change.

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coming off three weeks higher for the s&p and nasdaq. of course, some record closes on the s&p but still in search of that all-time high that would exceed 33.93 from february' 19 futures are green. we're back in a minute

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let's get mad dash ahead of the market open, jim you mentioned marriott earler i, you want to circle back? >> the winners, the companies that have good balance sheets that are doing well are starting to work the losers marriott great piece by b barclay's and marriott comes out ahead and i'm seeing this over and over again, carl this is a brand-new thing we have to worry about. little small business hotels get crushed. marriott survives. let's not forget big balance sheet marriott was able to raise money. you're not able to raise money if you're a small guy. >> no, but, jim still focused on

recovery in china, right sph. >> yes, it is. the capital to go forward and i think, therefore you buy this stock. a new position for me. i did not think that by the way, carl, point out secretary mnuchin informed me that if nancy pelosi, speaker pelosi, excuse me, is calling back the house should sit down in good faith to negotiate a deal with her. so, why don't we do this right now. with secretary mnuchin have nancy pelosi call secretary mnuchin and we'll get a mail deal right on our show we're going to get a post office deal i feel very confident about that let's get this thing behind us we don't want this thing overhanging our country. not when we're trying to get back together. secretary mnuchin watching the show and suggesting that speaker pelosi sit down in good faith with him i think that makes sense >> that's good, jim. we always joke about you being an investment banker on our air. but nice if you could put two sides together in politics >> i'm old enough to say we need this deal because i remember many elections that i followed

where even in the worst of times, like the nixon times they got the darn election done so, let's get this done. >> yeah. yeah jim, you mentioned, you know talking about marriott i'm looking back at some of the things and july 20. i'm less optimistic today than i was 30 days ago. so, i mean, there's still, i mean, i think in the, i think there is a battle of the minds on how it will shape up. >> arne has not been as bullish because they had a shortfall what i think he's missing is that everybody is doing worse than he is if you asked arnie, how about hilton and windham he would say i'm focused on marriott $62 million estimate for barclays remember they did this reduction of cash burn marriott has among the most liquidity in the group.

we'll hear over and over again liquidity. with the cruise lines. who has the liquidity? norwegian. let's stay focused on the fact that luquitty is the next leg. who was able to raise capital and who couldn't >> yeah, there's the opening bell, jim, as we watch brett fill in. your point about liquidity, high yield issuance most active august on record and we're only half way through the month. >> it's august i was with an investment banker this weekend and she was like working so hard. i mean, she was like around the clock. now, work from home around the clock is pretty unbelievable, right? you have the fig newtons and the dr. pepper and you're working and working and i can't believe how many deals there are we have to stay focused. not everybody can raise capital. if you can raise capital, you're king the biggest balance sheet that wins >> yeah. six weeks of influence on the high-yield bond issuance as we see the dow up some 60 points, jim. being led by home depot this

morning, which we'll get a look at later on in the week. along with, i guess, some of the banks will struggle here at the open, jim. >> we have to get over this idea if warren buffett sold you you're there for bad because wells fargo where the eagles won the super bowl, it was in the '60s actually. wasn't that the time to sell you know, now you've got a really unbelievable management and the whole thing is clear you have a very good mortgage market i don't know i'm backing with charlie as i said to you a couple weeks ago. i think charlie, we're speaking about charlie at wells fargo, i don't want to say he's a miracle man, but he is probably, i think, the smartest banker in the whole group these days and i understand jamie, please don't take offense or solomon. solomon, if he didn't -- i don't

know if you were able to attend that >> we could hear it. >> you could i've gone to hear solomon and he plays our generation i love him >> yeah. i think they're probably making rethinking that decision but who knows. jim, gm, deutsche goes catalyst and buy on the idea that they spin off their operations. they call it a no brainer. access to new capital and unlocking value. what do you think of that? >> i saw the term no brainer only a no brainer uses the term no brainer you can't do that. and, by the way, in the piece he says, listen, not going to do the ev but i think you can do the ev finished that piece and i said, go buy tesla another reason to buy tesla. positive note using a $400 price just from the chinese. i think tesla remains the most exciting story out there i know that people are tired of hearing about it, but, you know

what, i never tire of hearing about tesla and i think talking about 1800 goes to 1900 and china is the linchpin. notice how you never hear about tesla and problems with china. i don't know musk is just out there taking share and taking names if i were the chinese automakers, i'd be scared of elon musk. i would. he's smarter than they are he's smarter than everybody. >> do you not believe that a stand alone gm business would draw interest? >> gm. ford is at least going back with the bronco i think gm, you know, you buy a gm you're really hoping for a very solid 1.5% move you know, honestly i just think the autos not yet if you do want the autos, you have to buy something like the illinois tool works, which is

doing incredibly well or 3m which is making a comeback if the democrats win and they hurt him on water pollution, that could be a problem. but i think 3m is a great way to play the auto. a better way to play the autos than the autos because they have worldwide business i'm telling you mike roman is turning this company around. and he's undervalued and we remember when 3m was at 250. they have a good yield one of the greatest american companies but they do have a lot of plants in china, but so far the navarro crowd is not focused on the industrials no one's making 3m leave that country. >> it's a very large ship to turn around. 3m >> he'll do it mike will do it. july was strong. i bet august was strong. according to his >> well, he comes on we'll talk to him very shortly, i'm sure we've been watching, jim, this countdown to apple $2 trillion

and at the price we're watching is 467.77. getting close. >> well, one thing they did and tesla did was do a split. they're fool's gold and they work i happen to be a fan of fractional shares but they haven't really caught fire but when they get this, you know, i was with someone this weekend and what do i do with my apple. i put them in, i don't know, when it was 40 you might want to sell one share of the four you get, but the fact is that apple is leading they're the vanguard i predict almost every $1,000 stock will come and recognize, you know, we have got to split i think costco is right now trying to figure out, isn't it time to split. and i think they will. alphabet, i don't know they need to be pressured. i think that he recognizes that $400 is too expense frv a stock that he represents as a stock of the people but these companies, it's time

i got to call facebook on -- no, i don't have as much influence as i do with mark. but i do, i do think that facebook will be a candidate for split two and home depot come on, wake up and smell the coffee people want to own your stock. give us a split. >> what do you make of those -- >> remember they used to say own a piece of an american company own a piece of an american etf yeah, that's a no brainer. >> own a piece of the rock, as they used to say, jim. >> i love that >> what about, you keep hearing, though, oh, at least for those on the dow, the impact on the price weight would that lead to sort of softness that would spur further selling? does that give you any pause at all? >> we were talking about the s&p. s&p has real mojo. if the only segments of the s&p that don't have any momentum are the banks, which they don't, and the oils which people keep trying

i mean, bp and would you give me a break? the only one that works is chevron. see you later. second time in bankruptcy. but i just think that we have constant s&p look at that look at him. he is so bullish do we have him today >> i don't think so. but i imagine won't be long. >> i shot him an e-mail saying how great that piece is. maybe he's at the hamptons i don't know where does kostin go i don't know, he probably doesn't go anywhere. he works very hard >> we do love him, jim but when things look dark, they got dark and now that things look better, i mean, i guess, what do you say to those who argue that they are trying to follow at least this year >> this time they leaped over. i don't know do i think it's too harsh of you? i think that we all knew there was a moment in march where the fed didn't move. you really were facing some sort

of apocalypse. mnuchin sat down with the secretary and things worked during that. we do need, we do have a ppp problem. we're all out of ppp, carl we've all gone through it. now the restaurants, you know, you've got all these outside restaurants. those are so dynamite until it snows. >> right >> i mean. i'm very concerned we have an outdoor thing they gave us six tables outside and the other one we have to close until i figure out a new strategy now that i'm not allowed to have my margarita lemonade stand it is rather remarkable what is going to happen with small business and everybody has too many employees and that's where the problems with the economy are going to come from >> so, just really quickly on that point, jim. heat lamps, you know, durable customers. how long can you go? mid-october? halloween? >> we just ordered more heat

lamps. i'm not that handy lisa is putting them together. i think you can go until halloween without a problem. and i think, by the way, very exciting feels like vienna. which is great, except for vienna also has indoor and this indoor is problematic. they have the takeout situation together and the reason why chiptole to split its stock is actually making as much money per unit but are the little guys going to do? we're all overstaffed. everybody is overstaffed i got two guys in the kitchen. i love them. and i'm going to keep them, but most people are like, wow, we got a lot of guys. maybe we'll send one of them on an ojoe scooter and cut out grubhub who is merging because that's smart >> i think everybody understands what you're saving especially given the news from domino's

another 20,000 people to be hired nationwide >> that's good >> as you can imagine -- >> carl, there's a yum note about how kfc is coming. i had kfc last weekend it was dynamite. but they should put more drumsticks in. way too much white meat. the dominos. just remember. when you talk to domino's off line, what are they saying it's the little guy. carl, they don't have it they can't get through this. they don't have the technology domino's has the technology. i bet you domino's has driverless cars way before we see it from uber, which is -- we have to worry about california and uber >> i know. they did say they may halt operations this week in the wake of that new law, jim but we've always talked about these restaurant companies as engineering firms. one thing we didn't get to this

morning, jim, steve easterbrook formally of mcdonneauonald's to that complaint dismissed which got pretty nasty last week >> it is it's still nasty now the part that is not nasty, easterbrook lost the case in delaware where mcdonald's corporate location as everybody knows is in illinois but they actually have their certificate of corporation in delaware but i think what was most, i was trying to interpret what he was saying i came down with this. they knew everything when they gave him that severance package. it almost implied they knew the e-mails even though they said they didn't know the e-mails mcdonald's sticks by what it did and mr. easterbrook when you consider that there's three women involved and pictures and stock given. it just seems like he just -- i don't think there's a -- i think there's some real bad facts when it comes to easterbrook.

he's got a lot of bad facts on this side. i think he has to do whatever he can. but i think he's got a beat down coming >> finally, jim -- he did. >> and that, never comes in any of the pleatings all-day breakfast. i would have worked it in if i were easterbrook >> finally, jim, nvidia. one of the s&p gainers today >> i didn't like any of the pieces that came out this morning because they say the bar is too high but we like it anyway if i was a short seller, oh, they have given me a real opportunity. they moved the stock up and it is going to give back. data center is not going to be that good and the drag is the cars i know that that's something that feels passionate about which is the driverless car but very hard to figure out in snow and things like that but what a juggernaut.

and the best performer, of course, since the bottom reports the 19th i don't know they better announce that they have, i don't know what they can announce to be able to make it, but they can put a man on mars, if they wanted to. they are the guys that are doing the trajectory on mars the mars landing >> we will see them wednesday night after the bell that's right so, let's get to bob pisani as the dow is currently up and nasdaq is up 80. hey, bob >> good morning, carl. happy monday, everybody. mixed open but technology is leading and all the mega cap names on the up side industrials slight lead here and energy a little weaker and banks a little weak. probably because of reports of buffett exiting some of the positions there. mixed overseas shanghai had a great session they're near a two-year high and they're furiously injecting liquidity into their economy japan had a terrible gdp number

overall and i would note spain and italy a little weak here they're starting to shut down night clubs, again, with a spike in coronavirus cases you want to keep an eye on that. a stellar august here. now, normally august is a dull month. usually typically flat to down no, we're up 3.4%. we're knocking on the door of new highs here this has been the second best start to august in 30 years, according to some reports i saw over the weekend so, defying the usual course of expectations here and, remember we're right here right at a new high essentially right now. that was february 19th and the intra day high 3393. we'll see if we can close to get to a new high and volatility has been seasonably low. this is one thing that has been happening. sitting at the lowest levels since going back to february essentially at 22 right now. as for the earnings, though, we'll get all the july ending big retailers this week.

we like the july ending numbers because of the most recent ones. good update on the state of the consumer from the companies this week home depot, lowe's, target foot traffic in home depot stores 35% above last year's for the quarter. what is really happening here is the estimates have been dramatically rising in the last six weeks or so. at the end of april, three months ago, $2.98 for this quarter. today it's $3.68 25% where the analysts had it a few months ago that is a very, very big increase analysts too pessimistic on earnings for a lot of companies but particularly a lot of consumer names here. we're not getting the big upward revisions for the third and fourth quarter yet we'll see if that happens but certainly happening for the second quarter finally just on barrack gold warren buffett has a position in barrack gold

buffett has complained about gold as a nonproductive asset. that is unlike stocks. it doesn't throw off any earnings and doesn't throw off any dividends. unlike bonds, doesn't pay any interest it just sits there and you have to pay for carrying costs. this is a very common complaint but it is curious he has a position there carl, the gld, a lot of people feel the same way, now the sixth largest etf in the united states hard to believe, $85 billion in assets and at a huge increase in those assets under management just in the last few months. carl, back to you. >> wow that's an incredible number, bob. bob pisani, thanks let's get to rick santelli with ten year trading just below 60 basis points. good morning, rick >> good morning, carl. 68 basis points. what's interesting, carl, we should go back to wednesday when we had the ten-year note auction last week and, of course, thursday the bond auction that was so iffy and rates sort of peaked

you could see 72 basis points what we reached. yes, we've given up some ground. 30s made it as high as 145 basis points and now they're hovering, as you see, right around 142 but maybe the biggest issue is why did they run out of gas? now, whether it was supply or just the notion that even tho h though, even though negative rates, real rates are negative in this country and you consider inflation that ultimately, it's still some of the highest interest rates around the globe and maybe the issue is that a couple weeks ago rates started moving up. it certainly looked like we'll do a nose dive under 50 basis points and ten-year note yields and ultimately we didn't do that if you look at 10s minus 2s over the banking index over the same period of time last wednesday, you'll see maybe the biggest issue is how the rest of the markets just didn't pay all that much attention we saw long rates move higher and the curve steepen but banking index and many things that concentrate on high rates

kind of snoozed right through it foreign exchange where much of the action is. the euro currency whether it's against the yen or the u.s. dollar this chart, again, against the dollar from the end of june. what a july for weakness in the dollar and strength in the euro. if you open that chart up to last time we were up here and keep in mind, today. was high in the euro currency is approaching 118.77 that is the high going back to may of 2018. in 40 minutes i'm going to do a santelli exchange solo about where the euro may go and where it may pause and what are good technical areas to pay attention to jim and carl, back to you. >> all right, rick, can't wait for that thank you. rick santelli. we'll take a quick break here we did briefly trade above the s&p record close of 3,386 gold miners having a good day. back in a minute

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by the german federal cartel office for allegedly abusing its position in the midst of the pandemic a spokesperson for the regulator tells cnbc that the company is using unknown mechanisms to regulate sellers on its platform and that it is quote not up to a private platform to be a price regulator or the price police. amazon has not responded to

cnbc's request for comment jim? >> what a day. >> when our that he global you will get scrutiny from all around the world. >> you sure reflex tare. germans. trump with the post office somehow i feel the governments around the world are out of singh with the consumers the governments my want to regulate amazon or be punitive toward amazon, the people want more amazon. this has been the company that has shined in the pandemic and maybe the government is worried about little guys and they have absolute reason to worry but i think anyone who goes against amazon in the end is a loser because it's what we want. did they forget that you can't go out without worry >> right so i mean does regulatory risk even register when it comes to investment criteria on amazon? >> you go up against amazon, you go up against, because ilike small business, you go up against amazon, you're going up

against history, because amazon has made it so we can get things at home, and do it without worry. and remember, 40% of the people are at high risk in this country. and you don't want to take this from them. this is something that works for them so the germans may investigate it the president may not like the post office deal but in the end, the 40% of the people who are afraid to go out, this is their lifeline so these guys ought to get with the program. >> i think i want viewers to understand you what mean jim, we'll take a break. and when the markets did experience the pandemic and the sell-off in march of q1, one hedge fund had gains of more than 4,000%. we will talk exclusively with the head of that fund at the top of the hour. don't go away.

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gainers this morning, a mix of health care, some semis, definitely materials in the mix, with freeport and newmont. we will take stock of all of that and stock trading with jim in just a minute [beep] ♪ [whoosh] ♪ give everyone something to look up to. the all-new highlander hybrid. toyota. let's go places.

parading". >> with ppp. winding down, there is a recommend of planet fitness. 35,000 independently owned mom and pop gyms will not be able to compete with planet fitness. with ppp running out, being

over, you have to bet against mom and pops i hate to do that to small business small business should be supported. it's not work. planet fitness will triumph over 35,000 gyms. is that not a shame? those people work hard and they're going to be gone. >> jim, that would be a massive turn of events. >> and so sad. my mission, besides stocks of course is we have to have some sort of ppp for these who are going to lose to the big boxes and to all of the big guys who have stock, who are publicly traded we got to stop this, and this is one of the things that cnbc can do, small business need champions, we can be that champion >> yes i'm all for it jim, what do you got tonight >> i've got perk and elmer, the pcr test, maybe not as good as the saliva test, i think it's better and then grow generation, they used to call it marijuana and now called cannabis, this is like a cannabis tractor supply

and everything you need to grow, this place has everything you need to grow marijuana >> i don't know. okay >> i will look at wesley. >> i'm all for that too, jim. >> i don't know. my daughter was in oregon, they ripped out all of the pinot noir and they went to pot and the price of pot went to nothing and pinotnoir went up. >> economics of a new business. >> see you tonight "mad money." >> good monday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." a split picture this morning as we see some things working like memorials and semis but banks not getting a lot of love today. the road map begins with a 4,000% return in q1. the hedge fund manager who pulled it off will join us next. >> the post office in peril, an explanation of the postal service crisis. >> and later, to return or not

to the seattle school superintendent weighs in on whether kids should learn in person this fall >> if you picked the winning number at the roulette table, your payout of 35 to one would still be lower than the 40 x returns of our first guest today. he saw 4,000% gains in q1 during the pandemic, thanks to the hedging strategy which acts sort of like insurance for doomsday markets, mark spitznagel founder of uvz investments joins us now exclusively, so thrilled to have you with us today, especially because of trading in the s&p 500 just surpassed the closing record high that we saw in february, so i'm curious, you know, does the current environment make it better to be in risk hedging or less productive for a portfolio, and to that effect, how are you positioned to capitalize right

now? >> well, i mean you have to think about what the alternatives are, in terms of risk mitigation. universa is first and for most a risk mitigation strategy so this environment is, you know, is very much our environment. we are in a boom and bust cycle. an epic monumental boom/bust cycle. and this is really what a strategy like uvz is here for. >> so you're saying that being, you know, trading around those record highs, surpassing those record closing highs, indicates to you that we are on the cusp of another bust? >> i mean i'm not necessarily we have to be on the cusp timing these things certainly is impossible but look, stock market crashes, it's happened, as a result of overvaluation. i don't think there are many people around right now that would argue against the fact that markets are quite overvalued maybe they will get more overvalued i think that's the argument for being long today, they could continue the overvaluation and

get even more so, but they're overvalued and this is the setup for left tail events in stock markets. >> i want to talk to you a little bit about tail risk hedging because i think it is something that maybe not everyone in our audience fully understands, and after universa received press for the 4,000 plus returns in q1, maybe it is yelgsy jealousy or regret but there was criticism and calipers reported that it lost out over a billion from that decision, aqr came out with some reports, criticizing the strategy, saying that it work, you know, maybe in the short term, like we saw in q1, and what we saw in march, but not for the long term, especially relative to the cost that investors pay for that benefit. how would you address those critics who have pointed out the costliness of tail risk hedging? >> i would generally agree with that tail risk hedging in general is

costly it's a bad strategy. so the problem is you can't just talk about, you can't just talk about tail risk hedging sort of as a thing, as a sort of commodi commoditized sort of entity. this is something i have been doing for over 25 years and people enter the space and all of a sudden it's a thing which is nice but in many ways tail hedgers are more different than they are alike so we got to be careful of that. but what universa does, i prefer to call it just another form of risk mitigation. it's risk mitigation done differently. risk mitigation done better. so when you think about it, look at risk mitigation and you look at how it does in a scary environment or a market crash, if you look at the returns in that crash period, and you're kind of missing the point. what matters to risk mitigation, i agree with critics on this, is how does it do for you over the long run forget about just what it does for you in a crash there is a payoff in a crash but then what does it do for you

when there is no crash and you got to look at the asymmetry there and the convexity there, and that really is everything that matters so also, when you think about -- go ahead. >> after you >> so when you compare that other risk mitigation strategies, they are doing that, too. diversifiers do that or weekly negatively correlated strategies try to do that, too they try to have some kind of a crash payoff and something else, maybe there is a little bit when there is no crash and maybe it is more like this, where it is for uvz univers there is a little bit but diversifiers maybe will lose you less in a crash and make you a little bit when there is no crash and maybe ctas will make you a little bit in a crash and make just a little bit but it's that. and you got to think about some perspective of the end user. how much do they expect to make in a crash and therefore how much of that thing do they have to have in order to protect themselves in that crash and then, how much of that they

have kind of determines how painful the rest of the time is. are you underperforming the stock market in your diversifying strategies, and so if you look over the long run, risk mitigation, the conventional way to do risk mittvatimitt mitigation has systematically costed them return over time, costed them wealth, and universa exists to make this point that risk mitigation really should, when effectively done, should raise the way which you compound capital. it should raise your wealth at the end of the day or what was the point? and this flies very much in the face of modern finance. >> right and modern finance, you know, traditionally, you learn that investing in things like gold, a basket of hedge fund, diversification, is a way to do risk mitigation, but as to your point, you could be losing some upside, giving up some upside on that front i want to get your thoughts on some macro issues facing the

market there is a piece in "the wall street journal" just yesterday looking at how traders are bracing for greater than usual volatility during the remainder of the year. over concerns surrounding the election, the potential for this election to be nonconventional, to drag on for a few weeks before we find results, given the pandemic i'm curious, is that something that you are focused on, and how are you positioned in light of november >> i mean i really don't need to focus on the short run events. you know, we're always going to get that wrong everyone's always going to get that wrong this is sort of a tactical way to look at risk mitigation and what we do is entirely a strategic approach but it is right to anticipate some volatility nonetheless. that has certainly some good thi thinking behind it and we have a range of potential outcomes here and i would say what really matters to the markets in terms of monetary interventionism, i would argue that we don't really

have too much of a choice, of a disparity in choices, in the coming election, you know, the current administration has been very much a cheerleader for the fed and cheerleader for the stock market, and in that sense, complicit in this boom/bust cycle. so i think it's, and in that sense, it probably will matter less but certainly, on the tax front, this has impacted the economy. >> mark, good morning. so we've been talking a lot about tail risk hedging when it comes to risk mitigation but i wonder what you think more broadly about what's happened to things like bonds that investors traditionally have used to diversify a portfolio or protect against the down side. they don't seem to offer the protection they used to in this environment, so what do you think is going to happen with that >> i mean this is just a great point. this is something that people should really be thinking about. rates where they are today, i think it's a mistake to rely on

bonds as a risk mitigation strategy and again, it is what they're there for. it is the sort of negative correlation, when it is mostly needed, versus systemic exposure i think that is really a great point. so people need to think about what the point of bonds are now. is it hiding out is it, you know, there is such a, there is a sort of false choice in risk mitigation that you either have to take all this risk, or you have to take no risk, and it's a dilemma, you know, you're damned if you do, you're damned if you don't, this is the big problem that pensions are facing today, when they have to make that hurdle, and now, of course, bonds, the rates, interest rates in the market is making this even more of a dilemma. it is a bit of a false choice because of how i describe other alternatives to risk mitigation. >> so for the at home investors who is maybe dealing with some stocks and doing the safe thing and stick with maybe etfs, bond funds, et cetera, without getting super complicated, and getting into tail risk hedging, what do you do to mitigation

risk am this -- in this market >> what do they do or what do i do what i do is very different. >> i know what you do. >> so, you know, they can't get the kind of explosive downside protection that we do. as hard as the derivatives market, and everyone should really stay away from that these are weapons of mass destruction in the wrong hands certainly. you know, i think it is enough for people to be realistic about their risks, realistic about their risk mitigation strategy, and what are they trying to get out of it? it is something to think about in terms of gold gold is very similar in terms of universa we're kind of siblings i think of gold as sort of the run the of that litter it is less of a payoff what are we expecting out of that in terms of protecting our systematic exposure? same for bonds as you bring up people need to be more realistic about that risk mitigation should not be a cure for risk that's worse than the disease. and that's what it has been for

modern portfolio theory. >> mark, what can you tell viewers about your investing, your mental discipline, once your returns crossed 1,000, 2,000, 3,000, up to 4,000% i mean how did you have the fortitude to stick with it and not turn on a huge cushion of gains. >> you don't sell insurance on your house when you smell smoke coming from the kitchen. we have a larger place in our end users portfolio than just some allocation to some hedge fund that just maybe adding some alpha, you know, knock on wood, to their portfolio but rather, an allocation at universa transforms the rest of the proval and allows the rest of the portfolio to take more risk, they should take more risk, as a small allocation of universa dramatically slashes their risk so we don't have the luxury of trying to pick bonds in the market or timing the market but

there is a natural monetization process, very systematic monetization process in the way we run our strategy, so we insulate ourselves from these things. >> mark, i just wanted to get your thoughts, and to follow up on a comment that you made earlier that the administration is essentially complicit in the boom/bust cycle that we're experiencing given kind of the cheer leading in your words of the central bank and as we chatted on and off throughout the years, i know that you've been pretty stead fast in your belief that the markets are in a bubble and a lot of that has accelerated and accentuated by some of the actions taken by the fed, so i'm curious, and we haven't heard from you in this forum, since before the pandemic, you know, what do you make of the central bank's latest activities with regard to propping up the financial markets, propping up small businesses, and meant to shore up the economy during the shutdown >> it's very destructive it's very, very destructive. it feels good, it looks good in

the short run, it looks like, they look like heroes, but the long run effects of this stuff is very, very ze trudestructione it is the broken window fallacy. we see they're repairing these things but we don't see the opportunity costs and the things that lie around the corner which always lie around the corner from credit bubbles. and we're not paying attention to the massive disparate of wealth being created when we inflate these marks, it is unconscionable really. >> we will leave it there. mark spitznagel, thank you very much for joining us. we appreciate it >> my pleasure thank you. and up next, the superintendent of the seattle public school system on whether kids should learn in person at any point this fall. just two minutes away. stay with us this selenite grey is so pretty isn't it? wow. jim could you pop the hood for us? there she is. -turbocharged, right? yes it is. jim, could you uh kick the tires? oh yes. can you change the color inside the car? oh sure. how about blue? that's more cyan but.

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our next guest runs the seattle school system and has just instituted a fully remote start to the new school year the superintendent denise juneau joins thus morning superintendent, good to have you with us. good morning >> superintendent, can you hear me >> i think we did lose her, as well as the control booth is telling me, we will try to get her back, but leslie and john, obviously we've watched public school districts from all around the country, really, chicago, new york city, miami, washington, d.c., areas of texas

try to do it in different ways even within new york city, some of the private schools taking different tacts but we will try to get her back and find out what the calculus was behind going fully remote in a state that some would argue handled the earl stages of the pandemic fairly well. >> absolutely, carl. and in new jersey where i am, we were facing a very similar situation, an initial plan to go back with a hybrid in public school, and now starting the fall fully remote. carl >> superintendent juneau, do we have you now >> yes, i'm here >> thanks for your time. good to talk to you am this morning. >> thanks for having me. >> so fully remote what is the calculus behind that >> we had been planning, similar to what you had just heard, a hybrid model, i want to start out by thanking the school superintendents across the country for doing this, making

decisions, unprecedented time, and the switch over the last year threw us off our loop and we have beenplanning since the and fully remote because of the transmission rates of covid that have been rising, that my school board just voted to go fully remote for this fall and so we will be training teachers on common platforms, common communication tools, and there will be a little bit more predictability and consistency for our families and students across the system. and so, you know, we will be calling on families again to help us out with remote learning, at least for the fall. >> what is the red line in terms of transmission rates that would allow you to go at least somewhat more to an in person model? >> well, i think for, i mean what closed us as well, was advice from public health, transmission rate, and so we continue to stay in really close contact, with our public health,

our king county public health, with our state office of public instruction, and really work closely with them, about what, when does that happen, when does that roll back, we will have to follow the science and the data, and so we currently aren't there, but we will continue working really closely with them, to figure out when it is that we can start bringing students back into schools >> denise, good morning. how much do you know at this point about what remote learning, that model is costing, in terms of student learning, the slide in comprehension, what's going to happen to test scores, perhaps even how state standards might have to be shifted, or waved at least temporarily so the students who have lost some ground during this period will be able to regain it? >> well, everything is sort of up in the air right now, as you know, that there were waivers provided for standardized testing across the country, grading systems shifted, and we are looking at really honing in

particular standards to teach this year. one thing that i did, that i do think that is showed across the country is inequities across the country, particularly around broadband and we have to have a conversation in this country how we're providing access to our families, everywhere the fact that we had to, we had, we rolled out probably 50% of our students have devices, and so we have to make sure that we are rolling out the next 50%, that we are providing hot spots where there is an access, those are the big, i think, gaps that showed in our system, that we need to work on, as a country, so inequities in access, and just the shifting ground that we have to be continually be flexible around while also providing some consistency and predictability to our families so it is a huge lift for public education in this era, right now but what i do say is this summer, we had summer school, and it was fully online, we had

400 teachers who engaged in it, we had about a third of our teachers, our students who took advantage of it, so we're learning a lot about what was successful from those teachers, and where do we need to fill in and then what kind of training do we need to provide when school starts so people know what needs to happen, instruction-wise, and technology-wise. >> denise, you mentioned the inequities in the system that the pandemic has revealed, and we're seeing across the country the rise of pandemic pods, micro schools, where wealthy parents will get together with a small group of children, they will hire a tutor or a teacher, so that their children benefit from in person teaching, during this time, when the public schools are closed, and they will benefit from socialization, and so forth, do you think that for those who cannot afford to do, you know, these pod-type structures, that remote learning is an adequate substitute, and you know, what would you say to those people who are looking at what some of the wealthier parents are doing, and are concerned about their own children's academics, and

socialization? >> all of those things sort of exacerbate the inequities in our system we are looking to work with our community-based organizations, to put them in spaces, we know that there's also a child care crisis across this country right now, and that goes for seattle as well, as those essential workers, teachers who have children who are at home, there is a lot of things that have to happen, but i think what this is showing is that what, the kinds of issues that we do need to work on and those are community issues, those aren't just reliance on the school for example we served over a million miles during our closure. the fact that we are providing basic needs for our students and families, as well as education, but we also have a lot of supports come in from our community, some of our corporations stepped up big time, and our community-based organizations are taking huge strides, and so we want to partner with as many people as

possible, over this next year, to make sure that we are minimizing and mitigating the inequities as much as possible >> superintendent denise juneau from seattle schools, appreciate your time. we will continue to take stock of what districts all around the country are doing. thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you the lack of a new stimulus bill means the recession is about to get much worse for half of america steve liesman explains. >> thank you the new federal relief big, lack of a new federal relief big means that the recession is about to get real for those without a college degree and little or no stock portfolios and those who can't work at home in a way previously unseen federal aid has cushioned the blow of the recession, at the same time unprecedented monetary policy from the fed has pushed the stock market near all time highs but the relief has run out. congress can't agree on a new package and executive orders by

president trump are seen as a poor substitute by economists. in fact oxford economics wrote executive orders issued by president trump fall dramatically short of providing meaningful support to the economy. the lack of funding for small businesses, state and local governments, and necessary health measures, will minimize chances of a sustained economic rebound. take a look at this chart right here, unemployment by education, it surged more than 15 points for americans, without a high school degree. it's fallen just six points and remains above 15%. for americans with a bachelor's degree though, or higher, it rose about 6.5 points, and has declined to 6.7% from 384. so two very different experiences there depending upon education level, and you can find the same differences by income level high income, for the high income earners, they've had few job losses and can work at home and they have stock in home value gains and that's not true for low incomes with minimal savings and minimal equities and high

unemployment and you can see the one thing they had going for them, the federal unemployment system, that is gone, fed officials have urged additional aid in ways that they normally don't and concerned that the economy can't prosper with such a massive split, with higher unemployment and a muted rebound, and it is unclear how long wall street can prosper without additional aid to main street and the people who live and work there leslie >> a really good question and the income equality is one, a theme that is just exacerbated clearly by this crisis so thank you for staying on top of that. time now for the etf spotlight, home builder itb, ticker, up 20% for the year, with all time highs of home depot and lowe's and seeing a surge in demand as coronavirus restrictions lift with some reports saying foot traffic to those names is up more than 35% in comparison to last year. all ahead of earnings isth week. we'll tell you what to expect next

home improvement names like home depot and lowe's are in focus this week ahead of earnings frank holland can tell us what to expect. hey, frank. >> home depot and lowe's sales and profits are forecast to be higher because of a pandemic-fueled home improvement boom the analysts i spoke with say the real question is, will it be a record quarter the stocks have investor confidence both doubling from march lows, all time highs, for the first full quarter of the pandemic

home improvement a bit of an american past time 75s of millennials plan to start a home improvement project this summer overall spending on home improvement increasing in recent months year over year according to recent estimates while out of home spending continues to lag data shows contractors, customers for home depot, are seeing their business increase, the national association of home builders, remodeling market index, is at 73 for q2, a sharp increase from q1 and march, 47% of contractors said they received more job requests as a result of covid-19 in july, that grew to 69%. lowe's, a do it yourself crowd, so check this out. 70% of americans started a home improvement project in july compared to just 60% in march. so we're seeing that trend kind of take an upswing a key metric to watch during earnings this week is online sales. both home depot and lowe's reporting 80% growth in q1, and analysts i spoke with said they expect that level to remain just about the same in q2 >> frank, we will know a lot

more in 24 hours with home depot. thank you. let's get a news update this morning with sue herera. >> hello, everybody. here's what is happening at this hour interior secretary david bernhart has approved an oil and gas leasing program in alaska's national wildlife refuge and it formally starts a process to determine where and under what conditions drilling will be allowed. the sierra club, accuses the trump administration of a sham review process and says, quote, we'll see them in court end quote. a very rare fire-nado appeared in california, generated by a massive wildfire in the tahoe national forest a severe heat wave is hitting that state, prompting rolling blackouts as the electric grid struggles to keep up with demand. and the world's number two female tennis player, simona hallep joins a growing list of plays citing the pandemic who

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the post office funding crisis taking another turn this weekend as house speaker nancy pelosi called for the post master general to testify in front of congress over election concerns democrats allege the postal chief and allies of the president has been interfering with usps policies to sway the vote in november pulitzer prize winning columnist for "the new york times" jim stewart joins us now to weigh in i'm curious, let's start here, does the postal service need to be run more like a business as the president and republicans assert >> i don't think there is any doubt that the postal service could be better run, and it has been for, than it has been for decades, but you know, the president has been complaining about, like the package delivery situation now, for many, many months, and nothing happens, i mean they could have raised prices, for example, if they feel they're not, you know, if

they're losing money on these package deliveries but they compete in a pretty highly-sophisticated and competitive market, with very successful companies like fed ex and u.p.s. so to simply wave your hand and say it's not making money, it is not going to be that easy to determine that and certainly, i don't think that right before an election is a time to be tackling some of these issues >> that's a good point you know, we have a few months just to, you know, think about if we were to overhaul the postal service, it doesn't seem realistic to be able to do that in time for the election but what do you think the post office needs is it just an infusion of cash does there need to be legislation that changes the way that the postal service is run does there need to be a change in kind of the org chart, or the management of the postal service right now? what should be kind of our priority in terms of tackling these issues >> well, we should kind of say all of the above

i mean the postal service, maybe amtrak ranks out there, but it has kind of been a poster child for the problems of government running what is essentially a competitive business operation it has been muted, as a place to get a job, that lasts forever, that is really generous patronage, where you can't be fired, i mean how many of us have waited in lines at the post office, while nothing seems to be going on in this, you know, this back rooms, where people are sort of shuffling around so i don't think will is any doubt that the postal service needs attention. it is probably going to need some legislation to take a hard look at cost structure. and i think congress and the white house are going to have to decide, is it essentially a sort of public utility, where we fund it, and accept it at huge losses and try to make the best of it or do you want to put it on a competitive footing where it has

to coexist and compete with the u.p.s.s and fed exs of the world. >> good morning. >> nice to see you >> good to see you. >> it seems to me that there are two distinct, at least two distinct issues here with the postal service one is the trump administration kind of actively undermining the postal service before an election that is going to rely on mail-in voting more than in the past that's one and then two, what has to be done for mail-in voting to work securely and in a timely way regardless which one of those deserves the most focus right now >> well, i mean they're both important issues, and i think one thing i, in talking with, i've been interviewing with some people who are involved in this recently, and the post office is one piece of a very complex puzzle right now which includes all of the stimulus legislation and the white house in particular has been making the

post office an issue the vast majority of republicans that i have talked to do not care about this issue. it's not we're talking about a stimulus bill of $1 to 3 trillion and the cost of all of this post office stuff is not that big so i don't think there's serious congressional opposition but there is in the white house for two reasons. number one, they want to break out the stimulus bill issue by issue and they have succeeded today in getting the democrats to at least take the post office and treat it separately. they're giving up some leverage. the democrats are giving up some leverage on the bigger bill, when they have agreed that they will separate post office spending secondly, i think you have to keep in mind that the white house, their interests here are not necessarily in overturning the election results, and by the way, i think there's, nobody has conclusively said that mail-in voting is bad for the republicans, or bad for trump, but what challenging it does, or disrupting it does, if trump

wins, then fine, if trump loses, it gives him a face-saving exit narrative in which he can say oh, i was cheated, i was robbed. it keeps the trump thing alive it fires up the base it will be like campaigning over the next four years about how the post office cost him the election and it will give him an alternate scenario and no down side from the white house point of view of creating havoc before the election. >> for the rest of us who don't live in the white house, the rest of the republic, shouldn't the focus be on the second question, what has to be done for mail-in voting, to work securely, and in a timely way, because that should satisfy the president's concerns, about security and it should satisfy the issues of hey boy, if these states plan to mail out ballots a week late and if people will mail in a week late, that's not good for democracy either and

let's get everybody comfortable what needs to be done. >> that is a huge issue. the postal service was not created as an election vehicle it has never had to contend with a national pandemic in which many millions of voters would no doubt prefer to use the mail system, and stay home. but having, you know, i did this, i voted by mail in new york, in the primary, and this is a very complicated thing. first of all, how do you distribute these ballots, if you have to rely on someone say to go online and ask for one, or in fact, to do anything, to show some initiative, you're going to lose a lot of voters it takes a reasonably motivated voter to ask for the ballot. it takes a voter with internet access to go online to ask for the ballot it's really complicated. and the demographic consequence to it are very significant then there's the whole separate security issue if you simply mail a ballot to every single known registered voter in america, i mean that does create a lot of issues with

the mail and how secure and who will get the ballots and who will be filling them out look at the census we can't even seem to get the census done in the pandemic era. and now we're facing a national election i mean this really is going to take a lot of focus from some very sophisticated experts in order to solve this problem. >> a lot of focus, and time is ticking at this point. jim stewart, thank you for joining us >> my pleasure. well, take a quick break here when we come back, the studios behind the marvelous mrs. maisel, and board walk empire, making a big bet on continued new york citprucon ene turny odti pnc bank believes that if you can get a pair of goggles that helps you master your backhand... ...then you should be able to get a bank account that helps you master your budget. virtual wallet® for digital banking from pnc. it's time to get more from your bank.

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retail, earnings limelight this week and our traders break atwn what to wch on "trading nation."

welcome back the company that has hosted shows like amazon's marvelous mrs. maisel and board walk empire has announced a building of a second facility in brooklyn and sound space and production space skyrockets during the pandemic the studio's chairman douglas steiner joins us now doug, good morning. >> good morning. >> so if i understand this correctly, you already had something like 760,000 square feet, and you're adding another

half million, is that right? >> we have an existing facility of 780,000 feet, 50 acres in a brooklyn navy yard and this will be a facility in subset park brooklyn of about 625,000 feet. >> wow, so that is a huge expansion. is that kind of a gutsy move during the pandemic? or is this in part because the facilities like this are needed more for a particular reason >> i thrive on stress. it is a little bit of both it's a large investment. it's specialized building. we do all kind of real estate development. but since 2004 we opened a facility in a navy yard and we think we have pretty good expertise in this field and certainly the demand for contend has skyrocketed as you said. >> it sounds like douglas, it holds the potential to steal at least some share away from west coast production, after a time

when new york had really done already a fair amount of that. is that what you're looking at >> new york has had more new scripted dramas start here than in l.a. last year. so we think that new york really holds its own and continues to take market share from l.a 73 series. each spending about $35 million a year and running for eight to ten months a year, it is a great business for new york city and it is one of the few kinds of manufacturing that new york city does well that wants to be here. >> doug, there are all sorts of restrictions, and rules that you have to comply with now, to do filming, during this pandemic era. is it more expensive to do those, or less expensive, considering you can do things like audition remotely, and use technology in place of other things how are you assessing the cost basis given some of these rules and restrictions >> we function more like a

hotel. a boutique hotel for the industry we don't actually do the production ourselves other than furnishing, laying and the sites and spaces and the space they take is one that changes by the week for a different production given that though, we have screening procedures at our gate we have changed our air filtering system to filters that are the highest quality we can have all kinds of protocols how food is served on the set the density of the crews the occupancy within the sports spaces and certainly, there will be more expensive and take a little longer but there is a demand for content that warns it. >> earlier in the year, doug people were saying everything is shot exterior, and awfully hard and rewrites of scripts that people were in close quarters and romantic narratives and all of that. do you think those concerns earlier in the stage of the pandemic were overdone

>> i think this industry revolves around the stars and keeping the stars healthy and safe is the number one concern, as a driver of the business, so in terms of intimate scenes or crowd scenes, they definitely are re-writing scripts and are still figuring out how best to do that. and they're working out the new work rules, in light of the pandemic and it they'll get through it. >> this buildout that you're doing, doug, it is going to be three and a half years before you're actually using that facility who knows what the world will look like then but what are your assumptions about the payoff that you're going to get for deploying this capital now. not everybody's got capital. this is a big investment that you're making. who else in new york, or even in the industry is going to be able to keep pace with this >> it just really i only worry about my own stuff and it gives us such a big footprint in new york city that i think people will have to deal with us if

they want to shoot here, we have a great crew base here, that's why people want to come here, stars want to be here, it is very efficient to work in tv or film here while doing other media work on different days here and in terms of investment, i'm always worried about my downside risk, but i think this business has got a long way to go before a material change. i don't care how people view the content, whether it is on phone or a laptop, or a big television screen, or even cinema, we don't care about the distribution, we just care about how it's produced, and the more of the high definition is improved, the bigger and better facilities that are needed. >> it is a big bet on new york and what makes new york special. which i think is interesting and important during a time like this doug, thank you. >> thanks. as we head to break, take a look at shares of rackstace technology, popping this morning, up more than 10%, after a source tells cnbc amazon is in

talks to take a minority stake in the cloud services company, which is majority owned by private equity firm, apollo just went public a few ekwes ago. we'll keep an eye on the story we'll be right back.

welcome back the s&p is going higher among the sectors lagging so far today, check out what is happening with financials and the worst performing in the s&p 500. there are a few themes playing out there. significantly scales back on names like jp morgan chase,

wells fargo, pnc financial, and others but berkshire also built their firm this comes as we watch the trajectory for bench rates it skauzed prices to fall and rates to rise. keep it right here. at leaf blowers.

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carl certain modties this year, we all have watched silver, gold, particularly dpold, even though it seems to have turned here there was many tells, the notion that during this pan damic and how it can affect economies, they were able to corral the cats and indeed have shared debt and shared debt the notion of it in and of itself is very bullish for the currency on the euro versus the dollar, we're going to do. we move up here to 15999 this is the euro versus the dollar 11877 would be the current high

close going back 27 months but here is the key. here is what i find so fascinating when it comes to the euro if you look at this high, and you look at this low, the midpoint is 12131. and this trend line comes in at 120. between 120 and 121, when the market is still a good way away from that point, you want to look for consolidation let's go to the euro versus the yen. and this is a weekly chart the last price around 12587. same thing so if we look at the 2,000 low, and the high from 2008, what you find is that the midpoint comes in at 130.30 a lot of room to go there and the trend line comes in a very close second the same information, look for it to be drawn like a magnet

in both cases you should be long and when we reach our goals you should put sell stops below those trend lines. carl, back to you. >> thank you, we are getting into some campaign speeches, take a listen moments ago. >> pelosi and chuck schumer, they should come back and approve stimulus for the people. we should give some of this -- it was china's fault it wasn't their fault. we should see payment going to the people, maybe ppe, we want payment going to the people. we'll take care of the post office we want to make sure the post office runs properly and it has not run properly for many years for probably 50 years it has run very badly we want to make sure they run properly and doesn't lose billions of dollars.

they lost money over a relatively short period of time. $78 billion. you can't have that. we will work with them but we want money to go to the people and they don't want to do that they just want to take care of the bailout money. they want bailout money to go to their friends that are doing a bad job running democratic states you have states losing a lot of money that have been porly run by democrats for many years. and that's all they want to talk about is bailing out those states that's unfair to the rest of the country. >> are you worried about cutting back the service will affect people getting medication and ripgss >> no, the post office is running very well. now look, if you look at the post office for years they that's all they complained about. we're going to run it well one of the things that the post office loses so much money on is

delivery for badges for others every time they deliver a package they lose three or four dollars. not for the people, but for amazon, and for those companies to pay >> on mail in ballots, why are you opposed to them when they cannot be hacked absentee ballots absentee bat lolls are great they are good like in florida. this universal mail in is a very dangerous thing. it is fraught with fraud and every other thing that can happen we have to be very, very careful. we have a very big election coming up. i think we are going to do very well and i want to make sure the election is not stolen and so

does everyone else we have to be very careful absentee ballots are great. they have worked for a long time i endorse absentee ballots thank you very much. >> have you ever encouraged the postmaster general, a big donor to you, to slow the mail >> no. not at all i would not do that. i have encouraged everyone to speed up the mail, not slow the mail i also want to have a post office that runs without losing billions and billions of dollars per year as it has been doing for 50 years, thank you. >> have you removed the machines, mr. president? >> that is the president making some when thes on a week where speaker pelosi has called an emergency session for the house to come back the question will be whether or