on all fronts. how did we get here with 30 million americans unemployed and so much devastation in this country? i'll give you one chart to close out the hour which i think is critical in february the fed balance sheet was 4 trillion see that spike up? that's what happened since then. it's bumping up against 7 trillion liquidity provides the fuel. >> absolutely does "fast money" starts now. "fast money" does start right now. i'm brian and i'm in all week for melissa. great to have you with us. your trader line-up on a big tuesday, guy adami, jeff mills, bonaw bonawyn eison.

maybe call it the ultimate catchup trade. if you missed the market's record rebound, fear not because we have three stocks that could be primed to pop later, tiktok you don't stop giving us news, that is. there's a strange new suitor for the red hot social media app that our traders have our own take of who should put a ring on it so much to get through in the next hour, but let us begin at the beginning a brand new record close for the s&p 500. this is by far the fastest bear market exit in history it has been just over 100 days since the benchmark index plunged with lows of the year. need i remind you of the pandemic panic of march. we're up 55% since then. its close today by the ever so slimmest of margins putting an

official end to the bear market. guy, the market acting like the pandemic induced lockdown and mass job losses simply never happened is this all, thank you, mr. federal reserve? >> of course it is y the balance sheet in february was 4 trillion, now howevering on the side of 7 trillion. you have to say with some degree of certainty that the fed had a lot to do with this. whether they're in there or not, the market believes they are that's good enough you mentioned jackson brown. he sang the pretender which i think a lot of people think this market might be. another one is "here comes those tears again. we're at levels that the tears mi might be coming soon the euphoria index is literally off the chart. the market cap s&p 500 to gdp is

even at levels that warren buffett would consider ridiculous we're probably north of 170% now. a lot of people say it doesn't matter because the amount of liquidity in the system. i get it but at a certain point it matters. at a certain point a lower dollar is going to be bearish for equities my fear is we're precariously close to those levels. >> we'll talk about the dollar in just a minute here. think about this fact here you've got the fed, five nice and, i'm sure, very smart people, unelected officials. five unelected officials running a balance sheet which is almost double the annual federal budget of the united states which is essentially run by 535 elected women and men. what do you make of this market

rally here is it all the fed or is there some element of maybe the market believes we're going to get through this faster than some of the ultra negative headlines we read every day >> when you look at positioning, the street is still positioned pretty defensively you've only see about 20 sboo$2 billion into equity flows. also think about this idea of this divorce between the real economy and the market go back and look five, six, seven months off any major market low in history. the economy is typically not in a very good place. to think this divorce between marketings and economy is unique, i think is historically incorrect. it's actually quite common when you look back. you put this in context, down 35% from february to march, up 55 off the low, 103 trading days to a new high. it's actually the third quickest

recovery of a bear market. 1982 was faster and 1990 those declines were less but the magnitude of the rally was similar. there is some historical precedent for this i don't think it's quite as unique as many think it is >> wow i did not know that. maybe it was just the depth of the decline here either way it's pretty gdoggone fast bonawyn, the stock market is not the economy. that has always been the case and it will probably always be the case will this gap between the real american economy and the equity market ever get closed by the equity market coming down or will all that money we just talked about just continue to p power us higher in the coming months and quarters? >> great question.

it definitely is a chasm between the equity market and the real economy. the s&p is a leading indicator vis-a-vis the real economy with that said, for us to continue to grind higher aside from all of liquidity and money that is on the sidelines, the real economy is going to have to close that gap so that we have some follow-through to the upside if you look at bankruptcies, if you look at where the consumer is, granted wea eed we've had sf the leveraging in the cycle from the consumer but you see that being made up through corporations i think liquidity is a large part of that we have only met the expectations that are priced in. for us to continue to grind higher, there is going to have to be some closure of that gap. >> this is the sad irony, is

that maybe the worse the news gets for the overall economy, the better that is for the equity market because it keeps the fed in play. i mean, is there some kind of weird element to that? the fed put is what we used to call it. is it bigger than it's ever been right now? >> i honestly think we're past that i know we were in that fed put situation for a long time over the past ten years, but i think the fed is so entrenched in the zero interest rate environment and the guidance is so clear that people actually want to see the economy getting better we're talking about bridging this gap and we keep talking about the fed. but the one thing i think could give the market trouble is i think the market might need to force policy makers hands in terms of that additional stimulus deal. i think we need it

it's been income growth. you think about unemployment skyrocketing, but income growth actually rising as well. in order to continue to underpin this environment where investors are able to bridge the gap between today and this future state to which they're clearly looking, we're going to need the stimulus especially at these levels where you look at the b of a fund manager survey investors are as bullish as they've been since february. i think people are expecting a vaccine in 2021, so a fair amount of optimism positioning is not overly aggressive if we're able to get that additional fiscal stimulus, which i think we ultimately do, then i think we can bridge that gap. if economic data starts to get incrementally better, you probably want to be underweight the mega cap growth trade and you probably will see cyclicals do well. i think between now and the

election we may revert back to the growth trade where investors feel safe. >> i don't want to lay it all on the fed. it's also congress congress is passing stimulus somebody's got to fund that through deadi issuance. nancy pelosi said today we're getting close. but if we don't get it for some reason, what happens >> i mean, the logical answer would be the market sells off. i know brian kelly's one big concern has been what you just said the market doesn't seem to really care about anything right now. it's impervious. in a day or two at max you've had a vix that's gone from 80. i think it closed around 21 or so that's been coming down. the market is in cruise control.

for example, apple since the march low has added to its market cap over a trillion dollars. think about that for a second. we used to talk about a trillion dollars as a magical number and apple just in the last five months effectively has added it to their market cap. today for example amazon added a target to their market cap so the numbers flying around here, we've become somewhat desensitized to it but it's something worth pointing out. >> that could have been an rbi i might steal that stat. i love it. apple at 1.976 billion closing in on that 2 trillion. let's follow this up now with something that jeff just talked about, actually income growth. if you have a job, you're not traveling and not spending money. you're probably saving a lot

we're getting new numbers on retail trading activity and maybe a trillion more reasons why stocks keep going up it's a big story let's hit it right now with kate rooney. >> fidelity reporting record customer assets last quarter thanks to this boom in retail trading. the company had $3.3 trillion in discretionary assets at the end of june. fidelity's total assets under management which include assets from advisory firms increased 8% to 8.3 trillion. customers opened 1.2 million new retail accounts in the quarter trading more than doubled with an average of 2.3 million daily transactions in the quarter. the firm citing market volatility and the pandemic as drivers for that quarterly

growth it sounds a lot like what we've heard from publicly traded brokers and robinhood as well. >> hold on, kate we're not done with you yet. are you saying if somebody is free, you're going to take advantage of it? is there anyway to directly tie the stimulus checks to trading activity have we made that connection you get the 1200 bucks, let's just throw it on robin hood and see if i can make it 2 grand. >> there's been a couple of reports that show that it was something like 70% of stimulus checks that went into the stock market other things like commissions and fractional trading, you see fidelity and charles schwab advertising stock slices so you

can buy an expensive name brand stock for as low as $5 free trades i think has been the big factor that analysts point to >> jeff, your take amazing data you're talking about incomes if you're saving money, a lot of people appear to be putting that into the equity market. >> i think it's a good thing generally. everybody was complaining for so many years that the younger generation, the millennial generation wasn't investing in stocks now all of a sudden they are and i feel like you're getting complaints on the other side as long as people are doing it gentintelligen intelligently, i think ultimately it's a good thing since people have started investing it's been a really easy ride. you hit a rough patch and you

wonder how sticky some of those additional accounts are. it's a good trend. i'd rather see the money invested in the stock market than a lot of other places so far i think it's a good thing. >> now we're complaining there's retail investors you can't have it both ways. we know now that the market has bounced back in a bigly way. but many of you may have sold during the march panic and are now probably kicking yourselves for missing out on the rebound have no fear because chris is back with three names to play. >> what i think is important here as we saw with the s&p down 35 from february to march, got to remember a lot of names out there peaked well before the market peaked. the three named we're going to talk about peaked in early 2018. caterpillar i think is a great example to start

it's basically cut in half over the last several years i think it's improving here. it's on the verge of breaking through this 145 level the technical condition here is improving. the group industrials are improving as well. 50 days now up to the 200 day. you have a lot of trend support. i think it makes it a catchup candidate over the next number of months. morgan stanley is a stock that's really dominated relative to its peers, outperforming goldman sakes. it's kind of endured a two-year bear market. there's good support near 49.50. if you get any weakness into that, you want to be a buyer thirdly, let's go over to pharma and talk about pfizer.

multi-year down trend. we think this is coming to an end here it's really coiled to rally. we have this nice bottom that's taken shape over the last year or year and a half i think we're talking about a 50 or $55 stock here. i recognize new highs for the index can be intimidating but these names have endured multi-year bear markets. we think they're all starting to improve and quietly exhibiting some leadership, so cat, morgan stanley and pfizer three good names here. >> pfizer is one of the hot names on the vaccine side, coming back but still well below where it was a couple of years ago. >> i don't think pfizer is in play for a vaccine necessarily you have some potential tailwind with that. it's too cheap and it's clearly

lagged some of its bigger competitors, for example eli lilly. i like the caterpillar one that 135 level seems to be a line in the sand i think you can get back up to that 150 level we saw back in late january, early february. >> wow bullish call there for caterpillar from mr. guy adami. coming up, call it a big box blowout. a pair of retailers reporting rock solid results why didn't their stocks respond a little more? later on as tiktok takeover talks heat up, we're going to play a game of matchmaker. look here, it's your very own all-in-one

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welcome back to "fast money. we have got a market flash right now, some realtime breaking news on sorrento therapeutics contessa brewer with those >> sorrento had received fda clearance earlier this year, emergency authorization on a saliva rapid test for coronavirus. yesterday its stock plummeted when a competing company got the go-ahead to pursue the same thing. now more bad news for sorrento, down 10% its cfo is out and they've hire add 38-year-old to come in as the company's chief financial officer. there you're seeing the stock moving on that news. >> interesting headline.

guy daadami, we have a company whose stock is up over 400% in a year we're talking about best in class saliva covid test coming from this company. everything is firing on all cylinders and the cfo suddenly leaves and it doesn't sound like on his own accord. waiting for more details but that's a bizarre headline. >> waiting for more details is the operative. it seems like three or four days ago this was a $19 stock up from $2, i think, in early spring, maybe rightly so who's to say in this environment? off all those great head line-ups about tline-uheadlines about the test you just cited. it's not particularly encouraging. i don't think you buy it on the weakness it's hard to say what you do if

you own the stock. just looking at it, you know, when a stock goes from 2 to 19 in 3 1/2 months and now it's basically cut in half from there, that's somewhat concerning. >> i'll give you the headline here, jeff mills i'm not asking you to comment on the news but comment more on the headline as it pertains to any company. i'm going to read you the exact line for the press release the cfo's employment terminated in its entirety effective immediately. so he was fired effectively immediately on a red hot stock this is going to be a name that i have a feeling we're going to hear a lot more about in the next couple of hours and particularly tomorrow. when the cfo is terminated effectively immediately, there's something usually behind it. >> there's something usually

behind it but you don't know exactly what it is and you don't know whether it's going to affect the fundamental activity of the company i think it points to the idea when you have a stock that's moved like this stock has, it's vulnerable to these types of headlines. you can look across the market and see some of these companies that are trading at valuations that might be tied to some sort of coronavirus treatment or something else it just means that higher valuations are more vulnerable to these kind of pullbacks especially when investors are speculating that the future is absolutely perfect. >> we're watching that stock tick down as we're talking about it the cfo terminated effectively immediately. moving on, a pair of big box retailers reporting blowout results today but you'd never know it by looking at their stock. let's kick things off with walmart. you might have heard about it,

little startup out of arkansas walmart says e-commerce sales nearly doubled last quarter getting a boost no doubt from the stimulus checks. but clamming up about the rest of the year, not giving any guidance bonawyn, your thoughts on walmart's trading today? >> talk about what have you done for me lately. you touched on the online portion of their business almost doubling they came out and were very transparent about the fact that they saw sales start to normalize a bit in july and that some of the spinning was led by the stimulus this is not something that's off the table. the stock is off moderately. it's hard for me to call it much more than noise. it's shown it's been able to navigate this covid situation quite well it's got about 50% of its revenue comes from grocery

items. i still like the stock here. >> let's move onto another big name that is home depot it lost investors a little over $3 a share today even as sales rose 23% last quarter. of course everybody you know is probably taking on a home improvement project during the pandemic by the way, just try to find a contractor right now home depot sales surging 25% last quarter jeff mills, what's wrong here? all the gains already bought in? >> well, i think maybe for now to follow along on bonawyn's point, i think you've had this spending redirect it's been very clear. but how long does that go on, for maybe another year i think this narrative that the world has changed forever in every single way is probably overdone ultimately consumer dollars will start to get spread out again.

people will go out to dinner and take vacations walmart started to see some sales normalize as the stimulus checks started to wear off you wonder what is left in these names whether it's walmart, whether it's home depot. i like lowe's better just from a valuation perspective. typically home depot trades about two times higher than turns. right now 4 1/2 turns. i do like that over home depot but i do think ultimately those stocks could be in a position where if you do get a stimulus deal, you get a little bit of a short-term pop on deck, the market sputtered for days before posting a new record close coming up we're going to be joined by mike wilson to find

out where that might y that mig for concern. later, a natural gas breakout something we haven't seen or talked about in a long time. before money, people traded goods. tools, cattle, grain, even shells represented value. then currency came along. they made it out of copper, gold, silver, wampum. soon people decided to put all that value into a piece of paper,

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welcome back to "fast money. if you are just joining us, it was a record day on wall street. the nasdaq hitting another all-time high. this time it happened to bring along its bigger cousin the s&p 500, that index closing at its highest level ever our next guest says it may be

running on empty mike, thank you very much for joining us does it have to do with the move in bonds, which as you noted, the move we saw in ten-year yields was the third fastest in five days ever in modern history. >> that's part of it, brian. i think we're at an interesting point here markets technically have had this powerful move we're right into resistance on the s&p 500, nasdaq as well through resistance it's been powering higher for the last several months. markets tend to react to these levels i'm in the camp that we're in a bull market so we're constructive but bull markets have corrections if there is a time since march this year, i think this is a good time both seasonally, we

have this fiscal cliff negotiation. you talked about walmart and home depot arlier. part of the reason they gave pa back a little bit today is that these things have been big beneficiaries of this fiscal stimulus if that's delayed, there are going to be victims of that. i think the market is starting to think about these ideas of hey we've come a long way, let's digest this. this is probably the time you have a little bit of a pullback. >> the idea basically for clients of morgan stanley is, wait, you've got a lot of cash you expect a pullback. there'll be a better buying opportunity soon. >> i think if you're just now deciding this is something you can't take anymore, you have to jump in, probably not a great decision if you've been dollar cost averaging the whole time, stay

with your program. it's a bull market some of the things you were talking about earlier on the program, i completely agree with if you believe it's a bull market, it should start to broaden out a little bit more. some of that is around the recovery stocks but really it's a broadening out of stocks that have been underperforming for two years, financials, industrial, consumer cyclicals that will be beneficiaries of the reopening. those are the areas where we think the operating leverage story is going to be much more interesting over the course of the next year. if you are going to put money back into the market now, look for some of the areas that have been laggards, not the ones that have been making new highs every other day. >> at what point is the market going to want the denominator portion of this equation to start to move? that would be gdp. obviously the enumerator in terms of market cap goes up

every day given the market cap gdp does not move. as a matter of fact it's probably going the wrong way at what point does gdp start to have to play catchup >> you've been doing this a long time like me when you go into recession and come out of that, you always get the revaluation first. rates have been falling precipitously since the first part of this year. then we got the revaluation on theback of those lower rates and the idea that things are troughing and the market is looking forward. now is show me time. the things that are going to outperform now are the stocks that have the biggest upside surprises to expectations. some of that could be some of these leadership names in the tech space it's also in areas where

expectations have been hammered and people don't think anything good is going on it is show me time now, guy, you're exactly right >> mike wilson, morgan stanley, i really appreciate you joining us once again on fast past chris varrone, you see technicals, you see these markets. do you agree with mike >> yeah. we had a 55% rally into new highs here frankly the breadth over the last several days has not been as potent or powerful as you like to see when you're interacting with levels that matter what i think is important is a market that consolidates, a market that gathers itself would want to see a broadening out as mike talks about, if you believe like we believe that this is still a new bull market, that this is an economic expansion, this is about the

time where you want to see participation really broaden out with industrials, materials and banks. there are some subtle signs that's beginning to happen my best guess is that's with higher rates and that's a little bit later in the year. >> coming up, the traders are playing tiktok matchmaker. maybe a couple of suitors in the mix but who do they think should ultimately make it official? plus, we're counting down to earnings of nvidia ♪ come on in, we're open. ♪ all we do is hand you the bag. simple. done. we adapt and we change. you know, you just figure it out.

we've just been finding a way to keep on pushing. ♪

welcome back to "fast money. tiktok apparent hi hly has a new suitor oracle joining microsoft and possibly twitter in expressing interest in buying tiktok's assets today we're getting fresh comments from president trump on all of this. let's get to josh lipton with more >> president trump is now weighing in. let me bring you those comments. he's saying oracle is a good company that could take over tiktok's u.s. business he repeated that demand that the u.s. treasury must get some share of the sale and there must be a resolution by september 15th if larry ellison can find the right partners and get the right price, maybe this idea isn't so

farfetched he says oracle has the cash pile of 43 billion and counting he says oracle could see this as more of an investment. larry oracle would not be running tiktok it would just be a big new client for its cloud business storing and protecting all that user data. brent sees this as a low probability event arguing that oracle is an enterprise company, it doesn't know the consumer and has a spotty track record of m & a. one interesting wrinkle here is mr. larry elellison. he has that unique relationship with president trump the very rare tech exec that openly supports the president, even hosting fund-raisers for him earlier this year.

>> with the possible bidding war brewing for tiktok, we thought it would be a perfect time to play a game of match maker guy, who do you think? >> i know you're a huge tiktok guy, brian i've seen your link or your page or whatever, your channel. you know who the greatest tiktok person is regardless of your politics sarah cooper is just a genius. she just signed a deal with netflix. it's not preposterous to think that netflix couldn't tuck tiktok under their site. it makes a little bit of sense $30 billion, maybe pay for it in stock. if you're listening reed hastings >> not bad you sit there and watch content.

>> maybe disney here i am not a tiktoker. but if you look at disney business line, it's an opportunity to diversify i look at disney from a chart perspective, at this inflection point where it's time for companies really to put up here. it's an opportunity. >> chris, i love you, buddy. i can't see it happening do you know how many offensive videos tiktok removed last year? 49 million guy, i don't know if tic tiktok necessarily falls into disney's thing guy? >> are you talking to me i didn't hear you. >> is there another guy on the show >> i have the dogs barking i'm actually watching sarah cooper tiktok. you mentioned they've removed 49 million offensive videos you wonder how many offensive people they removed from mr.

toad's wild ride >> fair enough bonawyn, what do you think who could be a good purchaser of tiktok >> i think it's facebook this reminds me, having flash backs of my prom night, they are most certainly going to have to get her back by midnight and deal with dad and big brother on washington they have got to navigate a few headwinds there. i think just from a business mix, this is not an enterprise company looking to latch onto a consumer brand they're industry leaders i think facebook makes a lot of sense. >> jeff, quickly >> i think in terms of being incrementally additive to the bottom line, i think twitter makes sense.

you might say, well, vine didn't work, but there are plenty of kpa examples of companies that have tried to cultivate something internally and then purchased. twitter makes a lot of sense it makes them a more formidable ad platform compared to facebook and google i think it could help solve the modernization problem. in terms of being incrementally additive to the core business, i think it makes the most sense for twitter. >> maybe that will be their lucky charm. coming up, natural gas is on fire is there any more fuel left in the tank on this little mini rally? later, chip stocks ripping highe higher

check out natural gas. if you haven't been paying attention, you should. it's been on fire the last month, climbing over 40% there are a couple of names in this space that may be fuelled up and ready to break out. let's go off the charts with chris varrone. >> i think when you put this in context of the commodity here, this has been a big move we've broken a multi-year down trend. the technical picture is improving. i think you have room on gas to

about $3 the question is what names do we want to maplay seasonality is really good september and october is typically when you want to be buying gas we've brought along a couple names that are actionable. this thing peaked eight years ago. i think there's room to go here. 8-12 is the target or the move that we're looking for what's remarkable about the stock is 26 analysts cover it. there's only two buys. we don't have to worry about sentiment being too excessive here when you look at eqt another name in the space, i would look through 16 get you to that 24-25 range. i think these rallies are in their nascent stages i think the move in gas is just

beginning. it's time to embrace it. >> we have seen the biggest drop in new drilling activity in america in history, lost 900 drilling riggs in s in a year. natural gas is an offshoot of drilling for oil jeff mills, what do you make of the natural gas space? >> totally agree on the price. i think you have upside there. the chart looks good talk about the ultimate catchup trade. you're looking at names that have been absolutely pummelled and the technical picture is starting to look better. i've liked eog for a long time given their low cost structure they source their own fracking material they do their own prospecting. their debt picture is better i think if you get a turning

price, eog is one that i like specifically >> by the way, if i asked 100 people in oil and gas who is one of the best run companies in the space they'll say eog. got an opec meeting tomorrow as well on deck, why options traders are betting on a big time move for nvidia take a look at tcolumbia sportswear's tim boyle before money, people traded goods. tools, cattle, grain, even shells represented value. then currency came along. they made it out of copper, gold, silver, wampum. soon people decided to put all that value into a piece of paper, then proceeded to wave goodbye to value, printing unlimited amounts of money as they passed the buck to the future. that's why it's time for digital currency

and your investment in the grayscale funds. go digital. go grayscale.

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welcome back the chip rip taking a little bit of a breather today, but it has been indeed a stunning run let's check out some of the returns in names like amd, qualcomm, skyworks look at those gains. wow. especially nvidia which are on deck to report results tomorrow. the options market is betting on even bigger gains ahead.

what do you see in nvidia, bonawyn? >> heading into earnings we're looking at calls and puts ratio. calls have outstripped puts 2-1. that's nothing new we've seen that trend over the last 20 or so trading days we can see that the options are implying just south of a 7% move between now and then that's a slightly elevated expectation to what we see from earnings which is about 5% over the last four fiscal quarters. the trade that sticks out to me, about 10,000 of the august 500 calls traded for around $12 putting your break-even around 512. nvidia has a pretty stretched valuation around the stock price. they might be playing for an upside move about 4.5-5% while only outlaying about 2.5%.

>> i was going to say what's the risk they're putting on here, just about a 2.5%? >> correct as opposed to paying about 490 for the stock. >> guy, listen, we had a slight pullback on nvidia does that concern you heading into earnings? >> no. it doesn't just keep in mind, i mean, this stock when it troughed in march was trading basically $200 now it's $500. the move has been staggering and you haven't seen much of a pullback in the name i understand valuation, that's been the concern market doesn't seem to care. i compliment susquehanna that put a $540 price target on it. the prudent thing to do, despite 18 of 20 quarters they've beaten on revenue, gaming numbers are going to be great. it's not a bad idea if you've

enjoyed this move in the stock to take some money off the table into earnings tomorrow i'm not saying short it. i just think the smart thing to do given the run is to try to take some money off the table into the print tomorrow afternoon. >> it was yesterday susquehanna with a 540 chris, your take on nvidia >> i think guy is right. these earnings better be pretty darn good to justify that move i think the hint or whiff of a miss, there is correction risk here let's put this in context. this is a long-term trend. i think any weakness is viable but i don't think it's right for fresh money here >> there you go. a reminder, for more "options action" tune in friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. up next, stocks hit record

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welcome back to "fast money. the overall market may be at record highs but corporate insiders might be seconding us a big warning sign or not. but executives have sold a whopping $50 billion worth of their own company stocks since may. that is on pace for the most insider selling since all the way back in 2006

now, it could be a sign executives think their stocks may have gotten too far ahead of themselves or maybe they have preselected sell programs or want to fix up their homes like everybody else corporate selling a little bit harder to discern than corporate buying among the stocks seeing the most insider selling are nvidia and also regeneron s&p global it's consolidated for about a month. i think it goes higher from here spgi >> bonawyn >> ung >> chris >> i think pfizer. >> guy >> will you excuse me for a

second, brian? stop barking my god dog ownership, man restoration hardware rh >> my final trade is my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you money. my job is to train, educate and teach you and put this crazy market in context. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. the s&p 500 just hit