that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm natalie morales. thanks for watching. good morning welcome. this is "street signs. i've geoff cutmore with julianna tatelbaum. after a record high wiping out all coronavirus losses and marking the end of the shortest bear market in u.s. history. riding in recovery wave, maersk upgrades guidance despite

depressed demands. >> rwe raises after a 2 million euro capital increase. >> thank you very much from the bottom of my heart thank you all. it means the world to me and my family i'll see you all on thursday thank you. thank you. thank you. >> joe biden officially wins the nomination and vows to end the chaos of the current administration as he takes aim at president trump a warm welcome to "street signs. let's take a look at european markets and how we stand the

hour into the trading session. .6 representing losses for every region, every sector we are looking at gains overall. gains across some of the regions at one point, nearly ever trading sector was moving higher fairly muted fed meeting minutes later today. >> thank you you'll be interested in this here i am at the wall having a look at the s&p 500 and this movement we've seen in the equity markets even though people are concerned that we may not see a v-shaped recovery when you look at what is happened with the s&p 500 here, you get the sense that this has

been a largely v-shaped recovery as far as the s&p is concerned we've largely taken back the decline we saw early on back in march after the first real evidence of the pandemic what about different competing versions let's stumble over here and look at the s&p tech driver here. if you talk to everybody about why that big chart we looked at, they'll point to this particular segment and tell you that the growth drivers, the technology companies have largely been responsible for that big move. let's have a look at the energy segment. this in effect shows you where some of the lack luster action has been seen. it is because we have seen that

dramatic decline in the headline energy prices and people worried that recovery was not coming quickly enough to justify the price of recovery. a lot of the businesses out there supplying energy through oil or energy generation or so forth actually declining value that people became concerned for the value. let's just connect the dots. it may look like a v in terms of the s&p rebound but it certainly hasn't looked like a v when we talk about the cyclical economic recovery what happens here on in. everybody has to make a judgement about where we see the markets go because of this we are chatting early on saying we are early cycle. what we are seeing is reflective

back in 2012 where we saw growth and a new cycle. the argument would be and we've rebased this back to 2009. the argument would be that this is the blue line and where we are now and what happens after 2009 ultimately, we were at the beginning of the new cycle in 2012 and that takes us higher. the problem with the analysis is where we sit on valuations thank you to those out there that have done the hard work out there pointing out the pe for the s&p currently is 31.14 that's the s&p rating. it was 32.56 back in 1929. that's where i want to pivot to the dow. if you look at the dow and the historic path the dow took in

1928 as we saw the fed begin to tighten interest rates to quell the stock market speculation they killed the speculation and the market the fear at the moment, as you look at the blue line which shows us where we are at the moment, the fear is that the path may look like that rather than the chart we showed you so much of that was about the policy response and the fed was tightening and as we look at the minutes today, we learn that the fed is not interested at all in killing off speculation or tightening interest rates. julianna >> geoff, you've set the scene very well for our next guest tristan handson joins us now geoff going through our viewers there, the price action seen

across the market with the s&p 500. european stocks not that strong and recovering from the lows is there an opportunity to take positions now or are you looking at taking profits at these levels >> good morning. my perspective is the watch word patients, resilience, diversification. we've had great resilience if you were brave, you could have benefitted from that in the crash in the markets very wide credit spread as well. we are in a very uncertain market back drop i would agree with the view that markets have been quite discriminating certain areas have bounced back faster and harder than other areas.

one wants to be patient, the risk reward here isn't absolutely compelling. there for, i think the patient stance is appropriate. >> what exactly do you mean by a patient stance what does that mean and how do investors deploy capital while being patient. >> it goes back to the nature of the mandate or what someone is trying to achieve with their own portfolio. to put it in sporting terms, i don't think it is the time to swing the bat in a big way one can have the position on and might stay close to the benchmark that they have in their own portfolios >> listening to you, i can hear

the receipt sans as you express concern. the argument from the bulls would be as economies open up from here and we find ways to treat the pandemic, earnings will ultimately grow to justify the expansion in multiples that we've seen will it happen quickly enough to justify those who increasingly want to buy into idea of a new cycle? >> that may well happen. given that we are at very elevated valuations. one would think the earnings recovery is priced in. the only thing to that i would say is that the very cyclical areas of the market. airlines, banks and perhaps more structural, they haven't rebounded and they are the last

cyclical risk premium. you are right, you could get a big rotation into those areas and maybe out of the other areas they've done so far. >> i believe that market is a wild bubble. the reason i say that is, a, the point around discriminating markets. and b, the fact that this pandemic has accelerated structural change. we are seeing big changes in spending patterns. you are also seeing very low discount rates people expect to stay in place for a very long time if you are willing to buy gold or punt around, what valuable should you put on high growth equities that are alreadyidelivg

positive cash flow i'm not a doom and gloom person but i do think we've come a long way already and will not have very large positions in place at this point in time >> is there any reason to start dabbling more meaningfully with the tips market or getting inflation indexed. a lot of people are reluctant to go back to bonds at these levels if we are going to see a real tipping over, that would indicate maybe some inflation is beginning to appear. what do you feel about tips at this stage or inflation index assets >> i think getting inflation protection in the bond market is not an enticing thing at this

time your wealth is going to go down on the maturity basis that is possible, they are better assets than cash. if that is one's predisposition that they'll come back in a big way. we'll have doubts about that if that is a possibility. you'll be better off in the market whether banks or markets. i don't think we'll see the inflation unless we get a real kind of boom coming out of this, whether boosted by a, you only live once mentality. if you want, i would be looking at those cyclical areas of the

stock market >> what is your view in terms of having bonds in your portfolio do you think bonds are going to be able to divid that diversification they've had in the past in the coming months and quarters >> it is a great question and probably key for multiasset investors. something they'll be watching closely. how do bonds perform on days the market move substantially up or down and that will give people a clue for asset investors, the negative koor relation has been fantastic. whenever the markets have fallen substantially, on the portfolio, it has been a healdge.

we are in a new world. policies have changed on the fiscal side. it is amazing in this fiscal response, money to spend in the u.s. is up that does make bonds vulnerable. if you have some worries about the economic outlook in the next 6 to 12 months and i do share some of those concerns then bonds may provide diversification. the yield to the low in a longer term point of view, that is riskier. something i'm watching is the key issue for asset investors today. >> lastly, we have the fomc meeting minutes due out.

do you think we'll hear anything that changes the market narrative? >> it will be interesting to see. i imagine the fed was willing to cut interest rates unemployment now, i would think they would be looking to keep rates very low for a long period of time or at least give the market that impression and try and assuage any fears for the tightening jerome powell doesn't want to make the same mistake he made in september or q 4, 2018 talking about rate rises when the market was vulnerable. i don't think he'll upset the apple cart that the stimulus is there or more will come if needs be

>> a lot going on state side this week. democrats have formally nominated joe biden for the presidential delegate. supporters rallied and say he will be a steady hand to lead the country out of the pandemic. biden appeared from a school in his home state of dell to briefly acknowledge the nomination ahead of his remarks later this week. >> thank you from the bottom of my heart thank you all. it means the world to me and my family i'll see you on thursday thank you. thank you. >> biden's wife and former second lady jill biden said her

husband would work to unite the country. >> the burdens we carry are heavy. we need someone with strong shoulders. i know if we entrust this nation to joe, he will do for your family what he did for ours, bring us together and make us whole. >> meanwhile, former u.s. president clinton presented startling differing versions of the koircht under president trump and president briden >> you know what trump will do with four more years, blame, bully belittle biden will build better. in joe biden's america, we all live and work together it is a clear choice the country of our future is riding on it >> continuing with speakers with some of the leading voices of

the party including house speaker nancy pelosi, former president barack obama and biden's running mate, kamala harris biden will deliver his remarks on thursday. coming up on "street signs," opec and allies prepare to meet for the historic output cuts more when we return. at cdw we get you're always looking to modernize. yeah. i'm just not sure

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deutsche boerse set to announce wire card's exit from the dax. the boerse has tweaked the rules to allow for an early exit telling cnbc, questions should be asked about how the dax lists companies. >> this is not only a request of our scoop advisory mechanisms in germany and europe, it is also a

question of corporate culture in general and corporate governance maybe one of the questions we have to ask is maybe we are not supposed only to look at quantitative criteria but also look at qualitative criteria, such as corporate governance and a supervisory board and i hope we have a discussion in the coming weeks and months in germany to regain the trust of the share holders and corporate culture in general >> airline stocks are trading higher after uk said the government is working with heathrow airport in a bid to shorten quarantine teams in a bid to use covid tests in a part of the proposal and facing

challenges the shipping giant maersk has dropped revenues to $9 billion surging 25%. saying the impact of the virus has been severe. adding that it is tackling a persistent problem relieving sea fairing employees and respecting the restrictions >> rwe completed a 2 billion share issue. the third largest renewable company after taking over green initiatives and plans to invest more by the end of 2022. crude prices are oil with

oil producers set to review compliance with the latest cuts. there are concerns, it seems, about the stimulus plan in the u.s. that is impacting energy companies as investors worry about the broader demand picture. to what extent is opec the broader part of the region let's get out to dan with more >> the meeting gets under way in a couple of hours. we saw oil prices tracking around a five-month high over the course of the u.s. session as asia trading got under way and now to european trade, we are seeing down side pressure. brent holding down 1%. you can see wti losing momentum here in terms of what is going to happen in the meeting, it is likely to have business as usual. it seems they'll stick with that

agreement to cut production down 7.7 milli 7.7 million barrels per day. >> that is reduction in the historic 9.6 million barrels a day. additionally, that group will add supply to keep prices stable even in a weaken vie environmend keeping some of that successful market recovery in tact. remember oil has been stable over the past eight weeks. we are looking at for any commentary on compliance this was an issue for the saudi minister last time they came together in person, he said he had very little tolerance for

lagar laggard parts of the group it was said to be 95 to 97% in july as i report last hour, i was in conversation with a senior official via whatsapp last night. novak contracted the coronavirus. i am told he is in high spirits and feeling fine and will be attending this afternoon's meeting. back to you. >> thank you for your report let's push on and get back to a couple of earnings in focus. alcon has posted wider than expected after the swiss eye care maker saw a loss.

australia has signed a deal with astrazeneca to secure access the hard-hit victoria state reports the lowest number of new coronavirus cases. the prime minister said the vaccinations will likely be mandatory. a warning of a, quote, dam of financial distress" waiting to break on the uk enocomy more after the break

welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum with g geoff cutmore. marking the end to the startest bear market in u.s. history.

riding the recovery wave, shares in maersk rally after the shipping giant upgrade guidance despite the demand >> swiss eye care group al con loss widens and sales fall >> thank you very, very much thank you all. it means the world to me and my family i'll see you all on thursday thank you, thank you, thank you. >> joe biden secures the nomination and vows to end the chaos of the current administration as others vow to take aim at president trump.

>> looking at u.s. futures the wall street flirted with the high and finally crossing that threshold and hitting an all-time high. a fresh one of its own the dow jones falling yesterday. we've got green on the board for u.s. futures and it looks as though positive momentum will continue that will be the release of the fomc's latest minutes. that seems to be lifting sentiment as well. we've got green on the board and crossing into positive territory. trading .2 higher. we've got green on the board the majority of sectors are trading on positive territory. >> the uk's furlough scheme is

winding back saying failing to end the scheme could cause things to double by the end of the year. the former mp of the british parliament and leading light in the labor party told cnbc the uk political system is in a state of disarray or was in a state of disarray before the crisis hit but he praised his old colleague for keeping the government in check. >> the problem the uk had in 2020 is we broke down. our executives couldn't function properly there was chaos. the only part of the government that seemed to be doing well was the judiciary last autumn. for it to work, you need every part of the system, you need to

be competent one thing i'll say about our leader now, he is competent. >> you will know that umunna almost took a run at the labor party. we have some interesting numbers this week interesting numbers 2340u that we've had the eat out to help out. 29 million diners took advantage of the eat out to help out it will not help pizza express and restaurants set to close 73 restaurants across the uk. that move puts over 1,000 jobs

at risk after the company blamed higher costs and lockdown measures for eroding sales you've got the office for responsibility on one hand talking about the potential cliff edge for jobs and you've got the government enacting policies that ultimately will be funded from the purse which will talk taxes going forward or whether we will continue to live at the leisure of foreign investors where we will continue to provide guilts and threat to provide the ever higher deficits i want to turn to a related point you made yesterday around the risk of moral hazard

just thinking about pizza express closing some of their uk restaurants and stepping in in an unprecedented way people become reliant and what does this mean on the latest production and what does this mean in a capital world letting businesses fall in a way that is unsustainable? on this topic, let's bring in our next guest, julie palmer she's a regional managing partner. a little insight to this company and what julie has been doing, reporting increasing financial impairment according to a report the numbers in distress has grown by 33,000 to a record

527,000 at the end of june great to have you with us this morning. looking through your report, there is a dramatic line that stands out there is a dam of company waiting to break on the u.s. economy how much does it get in the coming quarters. >> giving you context, there has been several courses in terms of the uk health companies. 527,000 showing distress that is about 40% of the companies. that figure increased slightly before we went into lockdown and we haven't really seen the effect of the pandemic we are expecting that to begin to come through in next quarter's figures. it was already a bleak lockdown. we are expecting that to grow

significantly from here on in. >> i want to come back to the point i was making before you joined us around moral hazard. there is a lot of people out there who look at what the government is doing and the support it provided. it is keeping a lot of zombie companies going and shouldn't be kept going how does this work in the picture or factor in the balance aiding the companies that need help and all of those that fall away and aren't well placed to survive in the future. >> the point you make has been prevalent since the financial crisis in the uk, we provide a variety of measures. the banks will enact a recovery mode our support measures and we've kept a lot of businesses alive

we have a lot of sustained businesses that would carry on the loans. that has contributed to this even before the lockdown that was valuable that should we be keeping those businesses alive. we present those strong businesses gaining the market as you see the bounce back. that picture is even more marked in the amount available and a huge amount already spent. so, yes, it is important we get the correct money on the issue before the pandemic. we focus on keeping those businesses alive at the moment and where we recover coming out and keeping every business alive at the basic moment we've been doing in every business like everyone else. that is something we need to

restore. >> that is the challenge, isn't it, that the response we get at the public policy level that it is an indiscriminate policy but doesn't get to the companies that need it most nor does the bank of england strategy in engaging in qe at this point is there a problem with the transmission mechanism more broadly that those companies that maybe have cash flow issues at that point are a viable business are not getting the support they need. >> that was a valuable criticism and really works effectively to get money to those businesses quickly. you say is it a one size fits all and probably some of those we shouldn't have paid it to things like the larger loan

schemes, that looked more critical for viability it was some attempt to get money to those businesses that needed it the positive thing at the moment is that there is a huge amount of liquidity in the market if we can be selective in terms of those measures. there is a huge amount around as it going to liquidity. some sort of play whether the larger equity play or play to smes there is more for them to go to where we'll see recovery this will be a very different world in the short to medium term we are not sure at the moment what that will look like >> we have some includes what it will look like

after the gfc, we saw some small to medium companies start to operate their businesses in a different way and run with a lower level of debt. do you think if we think about how we remerge, we'll see a structural shift in how companies in certain sectors specifically travel and leisure area operate in a different way because it is not viable to continue running businesses with so much leverage >> if you look at travel and tourism, airlines are looking at a long range forecast and when they will return to the levels we had regarded as normal. i think in business travel conducting meetings in this sort of way has probably changed forever. that looks at really travel

space going forward. in this pandemic, in this relationship so the foot fall of one feeds to the other. that is the last 10 to 15% of foot fall on the profit margins. even when one meets to social distancing and people want to spend their money there. that foot fall makes it more difficult for businesses to make money going forward. casual dining, retail, it will be very interesting to see how we recover and adapt to the new normal on those businesses, we'll be the ones that prospect and we expect things to return as we always would and see other things fall by the way side. >> thank you for taking the time to speak with us the regional managing partner at beg byes trainer

coming up, the fed is set to release minutes from the july meeting when the central bank vowed to remain support of the u.s. economy but warns of weakness in the american recovery more after the break you say that customers make their own rules.

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welcome back we want to take focus on the yuan we have seen the offshore yuan strengthening for the first time since january 22 we are probably adding a little bit of context to that probably down to the fact that we didn't see a disruptive weekend meeting over the trade deal and ultimately, that's given beijing a little breathing space here as it continues to try to fulfill its obligation to meet the promised purchases made

under that trade deal. perhaps that reason is the little spike in the yuan given how strong we've seen chinese equity markets you look at the board and get an indication weaker to the trading session for the day. the markets have shown up a lot of momentum with the recent months with the shanghai composite. that gives you a sense of where gains have been seen specifically on the china ex index. senate republicans have begun circulating a first draft of the paired down sim ltimulus bill

the draft seen by the new york times reportedly contains many of thesame social and business provisions including in the initial package which was below the opening bid of nearly $3.5 trillion. house speaker nancy pelosi has indicated her party would be willing to meet her counterparts half way to secure a package mnuchin criticized the democrats for the gridlock but trump's executive order are beginning to take effect. >> we have many states moving through that process five states have already been approved another four states that have submitted. another 10 states that are in the process. the good news is despite congress not acting because pelosi and schumer are not

willing to strike down with a reasonable deal, the president was willing to move forward to strike a deal for those still unemployed >> on the july meeting when they met rates and pledged to support the recovery also expressed concern that pace of the rebound had slowed due to a spike in cases in june joining us former federal reserve governor and professor of economics in the chicago school of business good to see you, randy let's peck up on that. very open question what do you think the minutes are going to reveal. >> jay powell put it, they are not even thinking about thinking about tightening there is so much uncertainty that they want to wait and see how the virus is going to develop and how the fiscal situation is going to evolve as

you said before, it is a very, very uncertain situation we may see a little about their longer term planning on the new policy framework and strategy. what do you think they'll say with regard to the former guidance at the last meeting, people got excited about the idea of a talk of the control in the event it didn't come through and still remains an area of interest for markets. >> i think that is one of the many tactics still on the table. there are a lot of concerns they need to do given that the 10-year rate is pretty low those expectations are really low. what do they make by that commitment my guess is that they are probably still debating that >> randy if you look at the u.s. economy,

one of the biggest factors in terms of how the recovery goes and the housing market what we've seen is the housing market is in a sharp v-shaped rebound. how do you see that factoring into the fed's outlook when they provide the minutes later today? >> certainly, that's one of the motivations for cutting interest rates is to provide support and housing. if you think of households and wealth, probably the largest thing they have is their home. lower interest rates can make housing more affordable. they refinance so they can spend more on other things and helps support a housing crisis we can be optimistic about that. there is so much uncertainty that they ain't changing their tune at holding rates at 0 until

2022 i think for quite some time >> if we look out to 2022, one of the biggest questions investors are asking around one of the inflation outlooks and pressure remains to the down side and you look out to four years, we could start to see inflationary pressures do you think they'd be able to convince the market that they are committed to that? >> so this is an interesting challenge that they have in rethinking their strategy. the fed has said the 2% inflation goal and if it goes above that, we'll raise rates and tighten. saying we'll look over the longer term. for a decade, inflation has been below where we wanted it to be we'll run hot for a little

while. the challenge with that can lead people to say, ah, the fed is not serious about fighting inflation anymore and inflation will get out of control. they wanted to make up for it being below 2% for too long. they don't want to go too far to say my goodness, the fed forgot about being tough on inflation and we could see that go to 3% and 4% i think that's a major challenge down the line. that is a threat of low inflation rather than high inflation. >> just before we began speaking, we were speaking to another guest around the default outlook in the united kingdom. if you look at the united states on a short to medium term view, how much on the bankruptcy and

restructuring that aided business thus far. has that become a bigger concern for them bouj here in the uk where i am because i'm here next to our new campus in london the outlook is a bit uncertain more than a bit uncertain for a lot of small to medium enterprise a lot of these businesses won't be able to come back you'll see widespread bankruptcies that's one of the reasons why in the stress tests they are making sure banks have enough capital that is a serious issue and one we haven't seen manifest and will stay low for a long time. >> we'll wrap with you thank you for joining us from the university of chicago.

okay, let's bring you up to date with a little bit of news. we are bringing you flashes from focus magazine in germany. authorities now looking at an accident that took place last night on the berlin motor way where a lot of people were injured as a potential terrorist action that is the latest that the authorities are now firming up the idea that perhaps there was a deliberate attempt to motorists working on the premise that this had been deliberately caused out ore information, you'll be brghup to speed. thank you for tuning in. we'll say goodbye for now. you say that customers make their own rules.

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it is 5:00 here is your "top five@5." a record rebound for stocks. some say that v-shaped bounce back doesn't tell the entire story. democrats nominate joe biden as their candidate. reaction is ahead. the list keeps growing as colleges and unive