tv Fast Money CNBC August 19, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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one of the first weeks that we don't see that extra bump in $600 for the unemployment benefits. >> we're looking out for that. apple just closed higher but below 2 trillion gold is down 4% in after hours we're out of time. "fast money" starts now. good evening and welcome to "fast money. i am brian sullivan once again in for melissa lee your trader line-up right there, guy adami, tim seymour, bonawyn eis eison. we have so much to dig into tonight on "fast." best bet in retail look at target shares soaring today we have a bullseye on that name. one of the traders calling it out in a good way.
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we're going to give them more. target soaring today if you're looking to buy the stock now, have you already missed the mark? we will debate plus, we are following the after hours action in shares of both nvidia and l. brands both stocks on the move after reporting results. we'll break down the numbers a surprising stat on l brands that i promise you did not know. later, bonawyn is taking to the mound to pitch his next best idea why he thinks this housing play may be a total home run. we are going to begin now with breaking news on airbnb and their plans to go public let's bring in deirdre bosa with more on the details. >> this is a filing that we have been waiting for for a very long time however, airbnb filing confidentially so we'll have to wait a little longer this isn't unexpected.
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a source told me airbnb could file as soon as august and shares could trade this year just because you file confidentially doesn't mean you have to ipo any time soon. what may be surprising is that airbnb is favoring a traditional listing and ipo over a direct listing which many have speculated it was going to go that route ho the travel business amid the pandemic has been hit hard, airbnb included. the company has had to raise billions of dollars this year and lay off about a quarter of its workforce. it is possible that they need to raise more cash in a traditional listing. the question for investors is at what valuation does airbnb go public last year this is a company that was worth more than $30 billion in the private market. this year saw that valuation get cut down to 18 billion as it
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raised more money and struggled to get through this pandemic they haven't given us a ton of financials over the years, but between what they have told us and what i've collected from sources, we do know that the company has been profitable on an ebitda basis although this year they have reportedly racked up tons of losses. we could show you the sheer amount of investors in this company. it really is a doozy i can't remember seeing this wide of a scope since uber but it has investors from the private equity space, the venture capital space. what you're looking at is its board of directors it is fairly diverse for a startup, because partly this is a company that has been private, in existence for more than a decade certainly looking forward to this one back to you. >> quick follow-up there look at that board
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reads like a murderers row of heavy hitters from retail to credit cards to whatever it is they're going to demand their return airbnb's entire mo during this pandemic and lockdown is they're better suited than hotels. if you're going to travel, you're going to be in your own space and your own family and your own social bubble is there any indication they've had to switch their marketing? are people still using airbnb right now? >> well, absolutely the proof is in the pudding brian cassidy came on air and talked to us not too long ago and in no uncertain terms he said travel is never coming back to the way it was. they are going back to their roots, focusing on home sharing and pull away from that push they've made into hotels over the last few years if you believe their actions, you'd have to believe that home sharing is comingback a lot quicker.
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they've even said that bookings, at least in the u.s. have rebounded to levels pre-pandemic and they're seeing more people take road trips and stay in places where they have more control versus a hotel but then you get people on the hotel side saying that the hotel industry will come back, obviously. >> it's a tough call it's strangers you don't want to be around or family you don't want to be around. dan, i'll start with you on this what's your take they're laying people off. they're bleeding money, yet they want to go public. >> they should go public the public market is a mania right now. rather than slink in the private market, you might as well get public, raise that capital i agree that they should not do a direct listing they should put some capital on
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their balance sheet. they're going to need it nobody knows how long this is going to take. i think the main issue is there are going to be two ways that people stay when they are traveling. it's going to be the traditional way to hotels. i think the riskier way is to someone else's home. i think the hotels are going to be very, very focused on cleanliness. marriott, hilton, they have decades long brands that they have to stake their reputations on the cleanliness of it as far as i'm concern eed there will be tremendous demand for it in the public markets if it comes soon >> bullish take there from the potential, potential stock we don't know. they've filed. they may not go. the other big story of the day that was on lead before the
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airbnb news is a $2 trillion milestone, apple's market cap crossing that incredible level for the first time today it's now worth nearly three facebooks, about six teslas and more than 8.5 disneys. they say age ain't nothing but a number does the market cap matter >> i hope that's true about age, brian, as you know, because obviously i'm not getting any younger. i think it is just a number. a few years ago we had the ceo and he said apple will be a trillion dollar company. now here we are at $2 trillion for perspective, u.s. gdp is $21
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trillion you're talking about a company that's now 9% of u.s. gdp in terms of numbers that's pretty remarkable since they reported earnings they've probably added $400 billion to their market cap in nine or ten trading days that's bigger than all but probably ten or 11 publicly traded companied out there the numbers are staggering good for apple it's amazing i mention this quickly as well go back to the fall of 2018, stock made an all-time high of 225. within a month it was trading 140. go back to this past february. the stock made an all-time high of 325 and within a month it was down to 220 or so. this stock does move to the downside as well it's done it in the past and my sense, it's going to do it again in the future. >> tim, what do you think?
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>> they say it's hardest to make your first million it was certainly hard to get to the first trillion dollar company and yet it's taken two years to quickly double that and even more extraordinary in between with covid the drivers are three things with apple this is a company that is growing in the middle of a hardware company it's a $60 billion services business you put a 14-15 multiple on it the services business alone arguably is close to a trillion dollar company i know that seems extreme but that's exactly what's gone on with this valuation. the second is that 5g isan upgrade cycle that i think people are underestimating 350 of roughly 950 million apple phones out there are going to up gri upgrade. there's no question about it winners and losers in covid, apple may be one of the biggest
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winners. think about back to school, whether it's macbooks, airpods, all these things have gone through multiple holiday seasons in the last four months and we haven't even gotten to the holiday season oh, and throw in capital markets. you wonder why the stock has moved. those are the reasons. >> we'll see certainly all those reasons and by the way i'll throw in back to school you may think that's crazy every day we're hearing more kids are going virtually the parent who is has who have y are going to deck out their rooms with ipads and macbooks and make sure if they're on zoom they could have two sort of holiday seasons and everybody buying all their gear because they're probably not going to go back to school does the stock get ahead of itself in terms of valuation >> good points the valuation question seems to be the one that persists
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i think we've all gotten on here at one point and said listen, i don't think it's about valuation at this point. previously we talked about how strong their balance sheets were tim and dan, guy, they've all done wonderful jobs of speaking about the different verticals here as well as how the service business is expanding and likely going to lead into multiple expansion. you have to take into consideration that the stock does trade choppy at times those would be the entry points for me i'd look attend lev technical l that make sense to reload. the integration of the system, the ipad, iphone, the iwatch, appletv. all of those things are integrated that coupled with the 5g rollout, yeah, i'm the youngest guy here, but i'm young and dumb but smart enough to know you don't get in front of freight trains i am not stepping in front of
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this one. >> here's the thing. we're talking about this as it's the first company to ever reach a $2 trillion market cap company in the world like guy said, it's gained $400 million in market cap since it released earnings. if you talk about expectations for a 5g rollout, i'd say they're pretty well entrenched if you talk about the expectations for an extraordinary back to school, again, i would say pretty well entrenched in that recent move here's one thing we haven't even brought up just yet. china, i long thought that apple would be the last battle fought in our trade war and now really what's turned into a pretty hot cold war with us and china when you think about what's going on there, forget about the fact that china hasn't grown its iphone units meaningfully. sales have been flat the last few years. when you talk about the services business, yeah, it's really important. but here's the thing, apple
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market share in iphone units has dropped in china, apple's revenue has dropped in china over the last five years by about 20% or so. when you think about the potential regulation that we have coming from the eu and here, then you have some sort of issues with this growth and this multiple expansion by the way, the multiple has expanded it's doubled in the last two years, two years that the stock actually hasn't grown its earnings when you put it all together, i just don't see how you put fresh money to work right here in the name that obviously i've been skeptical that this expansion as far as multiple makes any sense. i want to make one last point, though here's a company whose gross margins have been basically 50 basis points on either side of 38% for the last five years. if you're telling me service is going to help grow that margin, it's telling me also that hardware margins are coming in
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pretty hard. if you're not growing units and you have issues potentially in china, i'd say to myself there's plenty of headwinds ahead. >> here's the amazing thing about the iphone in china. the iphone costs one-fourth of the average yearly income of a chinese worker their income is about $5,000 a year on average. the iphone is the same price as it is here you think about that you wonder how big the market is can you imagine if the iphone was $12,000 here >> it doesn't matter. >> it doesn't seem to matter to anybody. >> i don't think it matters. that's an important point and we saw where apple lost a lot of ground four years ago with android and cheaper frankly local hardware manufacturers who were doing something almost as good but that statistic has been out there for a long time. everyone's pointing out why the stock has had a great run and
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why it can't continue, yet it seems to go higher. >> yeah. all right. now we've got an earnings alert on another big name, nvidia on the move, the conference call getting underway josh lipton has been following the earnings and the call and he has more >> caught up with mitch steves over at rbc, long time nvidia bull over there. that stock was up about 100% year to date, up 15% this month alone. he says he would swant to be long if you look at the data center revenue, 1.75 billion, daily
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1.65 billion the q-3 they're looking for 4.4 billion plus or minus 2% the call really is just getting underway the cfo saying they delivered a strong quarter ca eer gaming. brian, back to you >> traders acting laconic about that quarter what's your take >> it was a great quarter, but i think investors were expecting that i think that the data center, just the modest upsize there might be what investors are focusing on.
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when you see the gross margin in the first quarter and the modest guide in the next quarter, you'd say they're being conservative if you see that upsize in revenues, again, the stock was up 15% this month alone. it was up 100% on the year here's a company that does one-fifth of the sales of intel and has $100 billion market cap greater than intel i understand that intel has its own problems i understand intel doesn't have nearly the growth. but a $200 billion market cap to a $300 billion market cap to nvidia doesn't make any sense in my opinion. up next, easy come, easy go?
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revenues also topped estimates here's the sales breakdown overall the victoria's secret sales down 39% year over year. bath & body works, revenues up 13%. that's slightly better than forecast they reported same store sales with a big caveat. they said victoria secret comps were up 28%. bath & body works up 123%. the conference call is tomorrow morning. >> the american consumer perpetually underestimated what's been amazing is l brands was just this dog of a stock forever. it's actually the best performing stock in this quarter
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by 34% over the second best amb. would you touch it with guy adam adami's money? >> guy is running in there getting scented candles right and left covid-19, as it has done for many retailers, it's forced them to move quicker to restructure, in fact, given them almost some cover to restructure i think that's part of this. i think there's been a lot of low-hanging fruit. and no, i'm not chasing it down. >> guy, quick comment there? >> you know, it's interesting. i only remember this because i remember the banter back and forth. it was when you were filling in for mel earlier this year and we had a whole conversation about l brands i remember tim making fun of me
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about the scented candles. those bath & body work numbers worry diere ridiculous i think you take your money off the table now. l brands capping off a big day of retail earnings, by the way it's time now to break down the good, the bad and the ugly from today's retail reports first, the good, the great, target investors going on a shopping spree, driving the name up 12% after the retailer reported a monster quarter with a huge profit and sales surge guy adami, earlier this week we asked a would you rather on
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walmart or target. you picked target. great call now what >> you flip a coin, you're going to be right half the time. i appreciate that. we've been talking about target unanimously across the desk. the thesis is if you love wall ma wallmart you've got to adore target the walmart quarter was fantastic as well, but you saw the price action as opposed to target, which was equally fantastic with the opposite price action now the two are sort of meeting in the middle. i think given this move, given the volume target traded today, the smart thing to do is take money off the table and look for the pullback, which will come. >> let's move onto lowe's. we're going to call this the bad but let's be clear lowe's had a spectacular
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quarter, big time earnings beat, blew away every estimate we'll call it the bad because of the price action tim, your take on lowe's, quote, bad quarter? >> comp sales up 35% i'd like to be that bad. that's exactly where they wanted to go. they were taking market share from home depot. 25% up from pre-covid levels >> dan i think it's really interesting to think about tim just said 160% off of its march lows that means the stock was down more than 50% in march, which
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was much more than the s&p at that point we had not yet had the fiscal stimulus measures put in place the market bottomed around this same week. i think it's really important to remember there was a handful of u.s. retailers that literally have this handout from the government through the u.s. consumer given to them in the form of fiscal stimulus. everything that's great about target and home depot and lowe's and walmart, it's horrible for a lot of small business and mom and pop retailers around our country. we're just seeing the big get bigger right here. all of these stocks have massively outperformed it's been fantastic for them i think retail probably has a lot of headwinds especially as we have fiscal stimulus stalling here in our country. >> that's a good point the government kind of picked winners. you shop at the five or six stores that were open. where else are you going to go it's no wonder they captured all
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that money let's round things out with the ugly because really that's kind of what it was for tj maxx the stock falling over 5% today. bonawyn, your reaction >> just brutal here. there's winners, losers and have and have notes what these essential businesses don't have is the ability to stay open. we've even seen it from the companies that have actually beat tj maxx is in a position where they couldn't even operate for half of the time no real surprise here. i think you're going to continue to see this trend happen if you're not an essential business and if you're not providing essential goods, i think the headwinds persist. >> like we just talked about if you're not allowed to be open and be a place anyone can go, tj
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maxx was a spectacular stock for about ten years. coming up, the s&p 500 pulling back slightly from a record high today. plus, some of the hottest stocks since the march lows. which ones have more room to run and which have their best days behind them. woman: my reputation was trashed online. i felt completely helpless. my entire career and business were in jeopardy. i called reputation defender. vo: take control of your online reputation. get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender.com.
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record highs earlier in the session before turning lower there could be some more pain ahead for stocks in the third quarter. lori, great to see you back. this has been a record-breaking rebound rally on so many different metrics. why are you more nervous heading into year's end? >> i find myself thinking about 2018 and i'm not saying we're going to have the same kind of drawdown we had in 2018. if you go back to that year, we had excitement in january. we got caught up in the trade war in the second quarter, pulled us down the market sprung back the small caps hit in august and the big caps did it in september. then we had a heck of a fourth quarter where tighter policy from the fed started to pull
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back the narratives changed when i look at nasdaq's positioning, that actually recently returned to the 2015 highs and it's started to come down as i look through a lot of these indicators that i track, the peaks are starting to pile up. we may not have hit them just yet but they're starting to be within reach if they haven't already. do i chase this? no i'm not going to tell you to choose it. >> you may have heard the earlier conversation we had about apple. tim and i sort of quipped back
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and forth that nothing mattered with apple extrapolate that out to the macro market it hasn't seemed that anything hazms mattered >> i think the market at the moment is riding high on these hopes around vaccines. i think what we heard today is a sobering reminder that this economy probably has a long recovery path in front of it i think when it comes to tech, it's a tug of war with these tech names between extreme valuations and positioning and strong fundamentals that makes those things deserved. the institutional investors are starting to get nervous. we have seen tech sort of wobble
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as the virus has started to come down that positioning is really starting to worry people who have made a lot of money in this space. >> thank you very much tim, do you see a wobble underneath the underlying equity market >> the w in wobble is what a lot of people thought this market was going to look like coming off of covid i think the fed -- when she referenced 2018 and lori is on our show a lot and does a great job, the 2018 concern to me was really all about the fed there was a little bit of china in there but it was a fed that was overly aggressive. it's all about the fed now we got fed minutes today people are starting to decipher
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if by september we're going to have some different language that's where the w in wobble or that shaped chart that the market could look like i do see valuations that are stretched. >> guy adami, iwhat is going on with the stock market? i'm sure you get that. what do you say? >> there was a movie in the 1960s it's a mad mad mad mad world. everybody was looking for the treasure under the w and they couldn't see it. this w is right in front of your eyes you've just got to see it. lori does. i do as well. >> by the way, fantastic movie
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we have breaking news on intel. kate rooney joining us with the news >> intel announcing a $10 billion stock buyback. this is part of intel's plan to buy back $20 billion worth of stock. after today that brings the total to 17.6 billion. they're well on their way there. intel has gotten a boost this year from work from home and demand for their products. the ceo saying while the macro environment remains uncertain, shares are trading well below their intrinsic value and he believes the repurchases are proven at this time. shares popping about 3% after hours. back to you guys >> there we go 3.5% there
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bonawyn, we have not seen a lot of buybacks lately, intel coming out of the blue. >> that stock has been hit precipitously hard that fall has been drastic it makes sense to put some money to work here this was a lot of scrutiny around dividends in the financial sector and buybacks. those led to a lot of the elevates levels that we had. if this is an opportunity buyback shares at suppressed levels and they're signaling they don't have a better way of returning value to shareholders, it makes sense and seeming hi is a prudent thing to do. time will tell. >> the upside of the buyback is you remove stock, you essentially create artificial tightness of supply for the overall market, hope the stock will go up but you're also kind of saying we don't really have a better use for the $10 billion. are you a fan overall of
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buybacks do you like the intel move >> sure. intel put billions of dollars to work in the last five years. they made a lot of smaller acquisitions this is a company that was getting very focused to the next wave of computing being exposed to ioc obviously this is good news. it's fine. do we want them to make another expensive acquisition? maybe. they haven't integrated the other two very well just yet in the meantime i think this is probably good for investor sentiment. i want to make one other point about lori and the wobble and the market i think this is an interesting week yesterday the s&p 500 made that new all-time high, a day later apple trades of $2 trillion for the first time ever. i think it's really interesting to put those two facts together and consider one thing, that yesterday only 6% of the s&p 500 made new all-time highs. the breadth is getting narrower
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and narrower and these names like apple and microsoft and google and amazon are doing all the heavy lifting here i think you could throw a dart at your board and you would see any stock it hits down a month from now i don't see how this poor breadth can persist when you have so many stocks acting so poorly regul lly relative to th. >> absolutely agree. those five stocks are 24% of the entire market. all people care about is they own s&p 500 index fund or etf. >> if i'm playing darts, get out
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of the way because i'm missing the board. on some level that's what's going on here. i think at retail. retail is on fire. look at the xrt, look at the industrials. you look at the shippers and some of these broader transports, to me i don't think the breadth is awful i think the fear around the narrowing of the market is something we've talked about with mega cap tech for a couple years. i can't dispute that markets aren't elevated here and that the fundamentals aren't truly matching up with the times this is about the fed. this is about liquidity. this is about earnings yield better that you can get in a fixed income market nap's the story here with the fed not in play, i think markets stay here. >> okay. good point there
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coming up, we're going to tell you what shares of gilead did today and it has nothing to do with coronavirus. first, bonawyn winding up for a fast pitch ♪ come on in, we're open. ♪ all we do is hand you the bag. simple. done. we adapt and we change. you know, you just figure it out. we've just been finding a way to keep on pushing. ♪
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have let me up here. i'm going to take a look at a name that gives you exposure to the housing sector fortune brands there's a few reasons i like this play. it's got the exposure to do it yourself we've seen earnings from lowe's, home depot, et cetera. another way to play the housing boom you have immediate follow-through and delayed follow-through when you look at their brand mix and the verticals they're in the last thing is strong financials and industry leading brands so if you take a look at free cash flow, debt load, i think the story really shapes up here. you can see this thing has been in the strong up trend it's tough to pitch names that are making new highs if you're not willing to pick a name that makes new highs, you will have missed out on much of the market rally
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it's a less known about way to play exposure to the housing sector >> i've got a question my question to bonawyn is no question, you're through earnings does valuation concern you at all because we're probably getting towards the upper end of their valuation spectrum. >> absolutely the valuation concerns me. as with anything, i think we've heard many of the panelists and guests come on and say, listen, it's probably the proper time to put in a stop loss or kind of express your view via options. if we go back and look at what has led us higher, it has been stocks with stretched valuations
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>> it is time to vote. america, the world, whenever you're watching, are you buying bonawyn's pitch on fortune brands >> hopefully you can see this. if you can't see it, it says i heart icebreaker icebreaker is bonawyn's nickname which i gave him which i happen to love. it continues to go higher here >> tim, what do you think? >> i thilike the call. here's what i say about valuations we've seen materials plays and resource plays during boom times. you don't buy them when they're cheap. you buy them when they're
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expensive. buy. >> brilliant dan, what about you? >> so kevin our producer is going to get mad at me i have buy my pen ran out here, people. i'm sorry, it's a difficult time my one caveat is i would buy on a pullback bonawyn laid out all the fundamentals the valuation is fine. i think you want to buy it on a pullback if you get a move back to that breakout level of 73-74, that's where i would buy this just because bonawyn comes on here, tells a nice pretty story, you just might get a pullback to buy into that thing. i don't think you have to buy it here at $83.50 that's all i'm saying. >> fair enough are you at home buying bonawyn's
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into a piece of paper, then proceeded to wave goodbye to value, printing unlimited amounts of money as they passed the buck to the future. that's why it's time for digital currency and your investment in the grayscale funds. go digital. go grayscale. . welcome back to "fast money. a bit of a buzzkill on gilead, shares tumbling 5% on news the fda will not approve its experimental arthritis treatment saying it needs to see more data. >> they have a global
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partnership with a company called call ed ga lop goes i think now for the first time in a while, a company that's been cheap is actually cheap enough for you to buy. i think gilead at 65 is worth a look we've got an update on a story we first brought you last week remark's ceo sending us a at the same time saying that many of david's accusations about the artificial intelligence company are wrong. that includes remarks existing ownership and health care company sharecare. remarks adding wolfpack inaccurately calculate working capital using 2018 figures they say we are a public company
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is well regarded auditors regularly reviewing our financials coming up, alibaba on deck to report numbers. will that bull run continue? check out this triple play cramer has tonight you're going to hear from the ceo of at home ♪ for skin as alive as you are... don't settle for silver ♪ gold bond champion your skin
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welcome back to "fast money. earnings season, it is not over yet. alibaba reporting tomorrow options traders are betting alibaba keeps its run going. >> looking ahead to earnings we can see the calls outpace puts about 3-1. i will note that some of that is in spread action which we'll get to later you can see that options are implying a 5% move in either direction between now and friday that's about twice what we've seen over the last four
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quarters the trade that sticks out to me is 13,000 plus it was 260/265 call spread traded pay $2 for it. outlay 2 to make 5 w it's a way for you to find your risk and play for a little bit of upside going into earnings. >> for more "options action" tune into the full show friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time up next, it is your last chance to vote in our twitter poll did you think that bonawyn's fast pitch on fortune brands was a home run ♪
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tools, cattle, grain, traded goods. even shells represented value. then currency came along. they made it out of copper, gold, silver, wampum. soon people decided to put all that value into a piece of paper, then proceeded to wave goodbye to value, printing unlimited amounts of money as they passed the buck to the future. that's why it's time for digital currency and your investment in the grayscale funds. go digital. go grayscale.
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welcome back time to reveal if you bought bonawyn's pitch on fortune brands it looks like you kept your high school pitching skills, because unfortunately the folks at home were not buying your fast pitch. bonawyn eison on fortune brands. better luck next time. you have a lot more at bats. time for final trade tim seymour? >> alibaba i'm long and i stay long into earnings a lot of catalyst there.
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undervalued. >> bonawyn >> i'm doubling down i think what's being overlooked is the exposure to builder flow. >> '. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i just want to make you some money my job is not just to train you but educate and teach you. tweet me @jimcramer. when i tell you that the stock market doesn't
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