>> good to see you again becky, i love that, cassandra. >> people called cassandra realizing she was right about every prediction >> nobody has calling me right the last few years. we're going to get yelled at again, again thank you. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next, and we're late good morning david faber has the morning out. dow's down three straight, longest streak since june. futures are red while jobless claims are back above 1 million. the road map begins with concerns about the recovery as

the fed warnings on risk there's a lot to watch the and an airbnb ipo is now officially in the works. you were just talking about becky about claims and this onagain narrative, the split between public companies and smaller businesses. >> when you keep thinking about what target said, brian with a tour deforce performance, talking about taking $5 billion in share you know he took it from somebody i keep thinking about that, that's the $5 billion that probably would have gotten into smaller companies that don't trade or companies that are starting to lay people off or file bankruptcies. the i call to attention estee lauder today

you don't expect that perfume or skin care gets hurt. hopefully lipstick sales are better usually when other things are weaker we're not seeing that. we're ripe for stimulus, but nobody is talking. >> yeah, jim, that's interesting, estee lauder layoffs, american dropping 15 minutes. but covid cases are lit rally collapsing shouldn't this be going in the other direction? >> yes, but one of the reasons they're collapsing is because the governments have become aggressive in a state-by-state way, in that the businesses we used to enjoy -- restaurants, bars, gyms -- are being shut

down or curtailed. it used to be that you have to take the tables out. now the new rap is you can only have 25% of the people you used to have. who the hell knows what that number is? you can only have five men in the men's rest room. you tell those six dudes that. this pandemic has recessionary impact all those people were getting the extra 600, were making more money than they were at their job. so there's more spend, but that spend seems to be tapering off that's something that we're not ready for. that's what the claims say, and that's what the companies are saying we better start recognizing this market as gone up 25% of the s&p are just a handful of tech companies relatively immune. then there's the banks and the

companies we don't trade in. >> so, jim, does the claim number this morning building any urgency? you heard mark warner talking about the possibility of a skinny deal this secondly, do you believe the sell-off yesterday was truly driven by some of the caveats that the fed had in their minutes? >> i think they made it so people said, wait a said, the good news of what we heard from target and lowe's is not as important as the bad news. lowe's did a fantastic job in august, so people thought maybe we're done, maybe the fed is worried they're done and those minutes have looked like they were even if we had a skinny deal when i reached out to speaker pelosi to come on the show -- speaker pelosi was in california and unavailable. people get unavailable, they have a convention to go to, but how do you do a deal unless

speaker pelosi comes back to work in washington she's working out there. i don't know both sides need a deal some people are being too clever by thinking no deal hurts democrats or republicans i think no deal hurts what we talk about, which is the economy. >> right, there is, though, jim, the i don't think going discussion about we spent 2 trillion, now we're going to spend, what, a trillion, maybe half a trillion? how many months does that get us two a month? that will be the question going into the fall. >> absolutely. that's why i've said you have to make this so it's open-ended, so we get something to get us to the vaccine. no one wants to relate directly why we have in problem it's because of covid-19, so what are you going to do every two months let's have something? no, let's make things contingent until we get a vaccine, we'll

keep making a stimulus i'm talking about the republic, the society. there's so many people, 15 million in the restaurant business alone, these people cannot have jobs, but they're not going to go become carpenters yes, lumber is up. yes, we need more homes, but you're not going to take a waiter at bar san miguel and have them hammering nails. we wish people were temperature fungible, and then we get american today and i think wait a second, don't be too optimistic. it's nature to be optimistic but now we seem gassed i think that when you get a number that was this great and we're going to talk about nvidia, that's more of a reflex

of the stock market that is nvidia i had to read that three times, because jensen long is so much smarter than i am, but wow there was a point i sent them a note, guys, did you really say that the a-100, which is their super, has $54 billion transactions who -- is there someone who needs that the answer is amazon, google, maybe oracle, azure. these guys are so far ahead of themselves, but people sake did i i nine a translator, he speak in 2040, 2050 language i love him dear by, but they're too smart? remember saying i don't want to be in his class, because he's so smart. he's going to ruin your curve.

the leather trademark jacket. >> you are absolutely right going into the print you want expectations were elevated b of a does go to 600 today from 520. where are we in terms of value waiting the response >> we have 17 price targets raised 17 most i have seen so i say right now you put nvidia -- you make it so it's on your shopping list when you think the selling is over, reach for that first that may be a new world record everyone feels the same way. they're like gaming was so strong, but data center. these people putting on numbers in the midst of a recession, if i was a ceo, i would be calling a zoom meeting saying why can't

we do number like jensen huang the answer is he's just smarter than you sometimes it's just firepower. >> and intel buyback resumption after suspending it in march f.t. with a figure today, jim. we knew buybacks would be troubled this year, but down 46 in q2, the lowest in about eight years? are we beginning to see in renewed interest, at least from companies who feel they need it to resume buybacks i think it's curious, what was intel problems let intel buy

back all they want i don't want it. >> you agree with the notion that buyback is great, but manufacturing remains the focus? >> this is not the intel of old. i am no longer an intel holder they're not giving me anything to drink i used to go to the plants and a guy named jerry parker designed them all the same way. and now it's like they're just not -- they're not who they were the big ones that are great, it's nvidia, amd and taiwan semi and lamb research, applied materials, these are great companies. micron obviously a bit too commodity oriented i do think that arm which was mentioned on the call, but i would say provisionally on nvidia is a great company, but

no, i mean, ily skyworks, but it goes into cell phones. i love analog devices, but there's too much auto. there are little flaws around the edges, but they want to grow, not buy back symptom i think that's the difference between intel and the rest of the group. >> jim, it reminds me, we're talking about a lot of names on the ndx, which despite the new highs has seen breadth deteriorate for several weeks. is it concerns just a function of what covid has brought to technology? i think it's very either disconcerting, what you have remember, you could argue it's not diversified anymore. the same five equities represent the qqq. that is extraordinary. every one of not companyings deserves what they're doing, but how about the other guys a lot of the companies in general are in that index cater

to small business, and the small businesses are dropping off rather quickly it's a tough thing to watch. we all kind of know it i'm going to be a little anecdotal, the place called the cup room, and it closed. institutions in each city are closing, because they were not built to have 25% of their customers and still make money we all know this the we see places we love go and we're not switching to olive garden even though i happen to have a predilection for olive garden, chili's, wings, but we do not live by chain store restaurants alone. >> yep you know that firsthand, but jim, that brings us back tots bearish argument we bought five months ago, b to b, going to

crater, look out below, and business is so good they're going to bring surcharges come holiday season, but it's different when you can get things delivered at home >> i think brian cornel undersold shipt, carol tomei, the ceo of u.p.s. ununcharacteristically quite ed, and she's learning the ropes fedex is a great turnaround. those companies are the new economy. e-commerce is so powerful. we have to stay focused on square, etsy and on shopify. crosscurrents are hard to

read, especially going to the latter part of august. when we come back, we'll talk about the american announcement. which markets will not have service, at least for a month as they await stimulus. we're back in a minute you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart. choose the app that fits your investing style. ♪ wow. jim could you ipop the hood for us?? there she is. -turbocharged, right? yes it is. jim, could you uh kick the tires? oh yes. can you change the color inside the car? oh sure. how about blue?

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phil lebeau has some of the cities. >> we knew this announcement was coming this is american formally saying we have to plan to be a smaller company. we're not sure if there will be money allocated to guarantee jobs so starting on october 7th, they will stop service to 15 cities these are smaller, mid size markets. kalamazoo, wisconsin, joplin, missouri, and then there are 13 other cities if there's no extension, we will stop service to these cities and 12 others on october 7th, at least for a month, then they'll reassess business. as you look at the airline stocks premarket, most under pressure keep in mind there's a decision about whether or not to award another $25 billion, cares act 2 is what it comes down to

essential. that would lock in the employees all through the end of march, and approximately 75,000 layoffs would likely be avoided. part of this extension is not just guaranteeing the jobs, but also guarantees service. the if there's no cares act, the airlines are free to downside their routes and their businesses. >> i look at those cities and think to myself, how many carriers really go to their cities in if it's only one, going to cam ma zoo will cost as much as going to london, and congress people have no know this is going to occur >> it will be limited. what you have right now is most of these cities, they only have maybe one, two airlines. the changes that would be made

is, will you have any service at all? that will get people in congress moving quickly nothing bothers them more than saying there's no air service to your district. that's why you see most in support of another $25 billion later on, you don't want to miss this interview ed bastian, ceo of delta, will join us at 4:00 p.m. don't be surprised if you see delta, united, a number of other alliance as they lock in their october schedules. you'll see more cities losing service starting in october. >> wow, phil, i'm looking at airline flyer has a tweet about cities that would have no commercial flights joplin, dubuque, stillwater, oklahoma. no commercial service in 2020.

>> i've heard from people that say come on, how many people are flying to springfield, illinois. if you start taking it away from the smaller markets, you just can't ramp it back up, okay, bring it back. it has a ripple effect that will be felt in not only those economies, but really in the whole airline infrastructure >> phil, we'll watch that. there's a lot going on on the delta side as well today phil, thanks very much >> wow, carl >> where are you conceptually? we need this to come back which industries deserve specific help >> i think we're getting some bifurcation. southwest is doing okay. but i do think -- yesterday

whether we saw the shares boeing, got a little excited we saw the southwest news. this just takes the air out of a key part of the economy. july next year, july 31st is when salesforce says its people can go back to work. what does that say all those carriers need business players. i think those companies are being zoomed faster than you can talk about most people have to understand that if you had these numbers, none of these people would come on somehow phil gets people to come on it's because he's a great reporter they don't have to dodge the guy. >> it's so true, jim it's curious to see about how the business model overall of airlines works when.

>> it works the same way a restaurant does -- not so great. i love to let people go into the -- but i had love did you go to florida recently? hey, do you know -- it's like going to a hospital going to a restaurant in the end, i would rather have cereal buy general mills. we'll get to more today, and talk more about what claims brought us estee lauders, bj's and more futures are still weak n'goway. i can't wiat to share at&t's big 5g news... (shouting through the glass) at&t has nationwide 5g? yup! and that's faster? faster, yea! but is it reliable? ah huh and secure!

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on a week where we have market all-time highs, apple a $2 trillion, the pullback continues as the dow futures are down 140 pivoting around some concerns that jobless claims are bag up above a million for the first time in a couple weeks we're back in a moment businesses are starting to bounce back.

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let's get ramer's mad dash this thursday. watching some l brands they ought to call it lazarus instead of l brands. there's a groundswell of

analysts not only is bath & body works back, but matt says, you know what even victoria's secret is making a comeback, which is rather incredible these are mall-based stores. all the analysts say it's not over yet i don't like the mall, i would rather be in a target, but you can't fight the program. victoria's e-commerce. >> and the july numbers were good we're looking for companies where there's momentum i know a lot of people say, are you kidding me they're tired old brands in the mall this is the shocker. a lot of people thought in the

teen it would be a goner it's clearly not it has momentum. i'm not saying buy it, but the analysts sure are. >> speaking of the mall, you know, one analyst i saw this morning pointing out duty-free is essential in hibernation. that's a very high-margin business. >> absolutely. he's made a great business of duty-free. you can tell where the travelers come from. there's a heavy, by the way, brazilian contingent, south korean contingent. obviously -- brazil has really cut back carl, people think that they have skincare, which was strong, but they have fraying ran. fragrance was down hair care down it was a suboptimal quarter, and

fabricio is the best there is, i wouldn't count him out china is coming back nicely, but this is unexpected i would say unexpected, because a lot of people feel like if anybody has it until control, but it is him. those who know they see brands, those were the standouts in the portfolio. let's get the opening bell here you mentioned china, and we now know that china commerce ministry confirming that those phase one progress talks will continue, at least on the phone. they're going to roll in huawei and tiktok into that kudlow is on the tape saying he's pleased with the progress of phase one so far, even make comments about goodyear, saying they should change their policy to ensure freedom of speech. that was a big story yesterday

are you sensing any detente, vis-a-vis u.s./china >> no, every today a story should be come out institutions should be ready to delist chinese stock. i wouldn't be surprised if behind the scenes we're talking about we don't need to worry about china, because president xi is weak that is the new theme -- why do we have to deal with xi? he may not be as strong as we think. that makes it so that the president feels like he very much has the upper hand. again, we have no idea this is not like the old days with mao, where you had people clearly on the's and they were just going to go away. so this is something to keep track of -- is xi in trouble

that would make it less likely that the president wants to do anything with china. and it's believed that officials from wuhan withheld information from beijing, and that adds to whether xi has staying power. >> there are people in the white house who say the whole delegation that came here may have had covid or knew about it. it's a novel virus you have to understand we still don't have a real handle on how to really take control of the thing other than through masks and social distancing, but i think there are very few americans who believe that the chinese were forthcoming that cuts in favor of the

president versus the 172,000 who died a lot of presidents would be on the ropes because of that, but i think a lot of people feel that the chinese were evil doers, like ronald reagan used to say about the russians, is holding up this coming into a cold war just like russia and -- not like russia and truman, but russia and ronald reagan. alibaba did beat on the top and bottom lines, cloud up 59. i assume there's no metric impressive enough to make you want to dip into those types of names? >> baba is the only chinese symptom i'm recommending on "mad money. they're very, very smart, but i don't know if it's just profittaking when i look at the 13 ipos that have come this year from china, which half of them are -- there's a lot of them that are down badly, but doing half as

well as the u.s. ones, i come back and say i don't know who buys these, thee foolish or they're playing some game. i waiting for the chinese hide lo g -- hydrogen cars. they have great businesses i totally understand why some might want to buy some, but the chinese this, chinese that reminds me of the japanese in the -- i think you have to stay away from the chinese stocks just stay away. apple, of course, was a big story yesterday as we got the $2 trillion market cap, if even briefly. 431 target on the used iphone market, which she says has a long way to go before saturation in her bull case argues thattic

see apple with emerging market share, similar to that in developing markets. >> what was interesting is those that think the used market isn't as big as you think, look out. it's a straw man that xi developed to make a good case for apple, but tim cook will make an even better case, because yes, the revenue stream is just very, very big you get the about illike at 3:00 a.m. oh, i didn't know i spent that much for apple plus you pay for that machine without even know i love that business how about a business where you boo i something every day and didn't know you bought it? what a business. >> that happens. how do you answer people who say did we really build a trillion

worth of value in 20 weeks >> first of all, we know there's no speeding tickets. this isn't i-95, now the jersey turnpike you tend to be able to say the stock was undervalued to begin with there were people who just think that suddenly jim cramer has a brain. if i said -- i don't know if i said it was worth 600, i would be a man with two brains i tried to make a positive case for autos. even people in autos say -- people want the same old/same old over and over again. then you know there's no stopping the $300 billion and plus in tech companies

it wouldn't shock me >> if we're agreeing on the templa template, the choices are narrowing, right housing has done well. if they're in an apartment in the city, there's no room for an office that means people are moving out, there's a long tail for housing. if you have a home office, it can't be in your bedroom no one wants it there. especially when you're working at home, it's 24/7

i'm hearing off-line from the ceos, i love this work from home, because everyone is working 24/7 i can send an e-mail to someone at 6:00 a.m. he can't say he's in the shower or watching netflix. do you know anyone who is happier in a pandemic? hey, what a great pandemic, we ought to have more of these? it juan that long ago where he joined us. >> at this point we're not ruling out going public this year, but we're not committing we want the world to be ready

for airbnb travel needs to go more sustained recovery in july they said customers booked a million nights since march, so we have seen a rebound. >> brian has a heart when he had to make the layoffs, he was grieving the percentage of loans 30 days or mo delinquent is now 23.4%. that's the highest percentage on record so airbnb may be doing well, so people say, well, people are traveling again. these hotel numbers are staggeringly horrible. there's just too much at stake. in the meantime, jim, we are

getting sinus that steve bannon has been arrested. hey, eamon. >> reporter: this news from the southern district, saying that steve nabbbannon in their charge with a we build the wall, a crowdfunding organization that has raised money for wall-related funding what the indictment is alleging is that bannon and others were skimming the proceedings for themselves,ing even those they suggested it was a volunteer organization and they were not taking salaries. is the indictment to document says bannon said it was a

volunteer organization, and steve bannon through nonprofit 1 at it's referred to here received over $1 million from we build the wall, at least some of which they sea bannon used to cover hundreds of thousands in his own personal expenses. so a dramatic development here for a former high-ranking white house councillor we'll see if the white house has any statement on this. >> carl, right now you can go to the site >> yeah, i'm looking over the doj release right now, guys. as alleged, they say the defendants defrauded hundreds of thousands of voters capitalizing on their interest in fundsing a border wall to raise million under the false pretend that all of that money would be a spent on construction. >> would you hocks how about

th that >> biden will literally accept the nomination tonight, but it's from doj, so we'll have to see whether or not they give more clarity on it and the degree to which the white house will respond. >> it's shocking we've all come to know mr. bannon coming on cnbc. this is some -- we can't even speculate. wow, i've got to read the indictment that's serious stuff, obviously. >> yeah. yeah so the markets down obviously oil is weak. let's get to bob pisani. >> hey, bob. happy thursday, everybody. it really started yesterday around 2:00 eastern when the fed minutes came out normally not a market-move

event. we've lost 30, 35 points, i think the tone around the reopening story is a lot more pessimistic. jobless claims may have added to that but a brought swath of sectors they're down about 1%. most of the other once are down today. a fairly wide swath to the down side we've seen some weakness in some names. speaker of travel and leer yurt. i think this is very interesting that the last -- this is a confidential filing, but 18 billion is the april round of

funding, and the one prior to that, people said, my heavens this is 40% lower. that's not a surprise. that's what all these stocks have been declining from their recent highs if you look at the names, any one of these it hosts, they're all 40, 50, 60% off irtheir most recent highs not a lot of surprise here. a you'll notice that talk about the direct listing, all of that went away. i do think think need the money. i know jim mentioned the intel program, but the buyback program, it's interesting because we haven't seen many of these at all bob swann says the company is trading below the intrinsic valuation. that's a fairly obvious statement. they've been note reply

underperforming since the end of july the whole semiconductor group overall, but i think the important thing is just take a look at what's been going on with the share count reductions. there's been half the amount of share buybacks, about 90 billion in the second quarter. that's half of what it was last year the share counts are no longer reducing -- the buybacks are not reducing the share counts. remember, buybacks reduce the share counts if they're aggressive enough. that makes the earnings look better this has been a big feat fur for the s&p. for the last four years, the share koujts have been going down this year. noise happening, because the buybacks are not as big as they used to be with their anounment today, so carl, back to.

>> all right, bob. thanks it's been a busy morning of e ecodata. hey, rick. >> most of the data was in the right zip code that shouldn't be shocking let's consider many of the dynamics it didn't seem to pay a lot of attention actually we were above, and every session since has been lower yields there's so many dynamics going on, but yet look at the 30-year bund, by the

way had the best demand though small in comparesing to american auctions what's notable last thursday it was in positive territory. it's minus .09 here today. when you talk about covid and how it's affecting the economy and the dislocations between the economy and the markets, one chart really jumps out at me this is copper versus dow jones industrial average year to day we all know copper has this special quality. i used to call it the sentinel commodity, it kind of shows you the way, but there's no doubt that chabrt, they're cross-fertilizing each other that chart is pretty clear

we all understand different dynamics when interest rates move together from various economies, but in europe especially of late, their currency, the notion that christine lagarde has corralled the cats, many think it's a breather because of the uptick in covid, but it's a rampant spike. maybe it's needed. look a what it's done to the dollar index it's flying out right now. carl and jim, back to you. >> rick, we'll see you in a few minutes. so we've got martz right here just about all sectors, tech is ekeing out small gains back in a moment

in a sign of the times taco bell continues to expand their digital footprint launching a new go mobile concept for their restaurants today. it includes a reduced dine-in footprint while expanding drive through and encouraging customers to order ahead on an app. jim, sort of rings similar to the upgrade of shack where they're saying co-vid is helping fast food and just the same kind of ways as tech. >> same thing with chipolte. they make a lot of money off

them taco bell being optimistic by the way, remember, that starbucks is going to do same small format stores. this has to do with the ability of a large company with a big balance sheet to say we're not going to do big stores nip we're going to do little stores because we can't have a lot of tables anyway. but what about the independent restaurants? they can't do that and that's why the big keep getting bigger yum is a buy i think it's not doing as well as chipolte, but these places can pivot. and the large companies, they can go antico-vid, pivot, do curb side. they're calling them bellhops. people can bring it out to you you can't get that kind of help at a smaller outfit. everybody is either behind the bar or they're in the kitchen, waiter nobody independent has the ability to have bellhops look for this. it's a positive sign and a lot

of people feel they were missing the boat so this is a nice response now they just got to taste the pizza hut. >> and to change your footprint like that, it's not undone by a vaccine. those drive thru lanes are there to stay. this trend will be with us even post co-vid. >> they can't say no because they can pay they need chipolte they're getting great deals from the real estate business trust >> yeah n a quick break here as the nasdaq is showing a little bit of life up 16 points dow is dn ow76 ♪ you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion.

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it's time for jim and stop trading. >> times when a stock, a company gets two different pushes ahead of a quarter, it's a good sign pamw, two firms say it's time. and i've got to tell you, this one while it's a few points from the high, can go higher. this is one of those work at

home security and also fire wall on prem security they have pivoted to handle both a wizard i think the stock goes higher. pamw >> wow interesting jim n continue el. >> it's cancelled. >> i'm sorry tonight -- no el tonight >> no el tonight disappointed but what can you do >> that's how tv works it's fluid all day long. >> yes give me phil he'll get american airlines up we have akamai and ping. i may talk about a wondrous dog tonight. a dog that can hunt better than any dog in the world you know the name of my dog. it's nvidia. >> it is has been for a long time >> well, since 110

nvidia needed more love and gets all the love from the stock. >> some of the luckiest pets in the world. we'll see you tonight. mad money. 6:00 p.m. eastern time good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk on the street." kayla is with us for the hour on an important day regarding politics and the economy speaking of which, let's get to lei with rick. >> yes our lead on leading economic ind va or thes is due out shortly. it started at 59 extreme high and low between march and may. the number is up 1.4%. pretty much as expected. arguably a smidge better at 1.4, it follows 2 % higher on e vi revised last month we have two positives in a row it gives us a longer view. not a market mover

back to kayla. >> that and more on this show this hour. a road map for "squawk on the street" starts with recovery concerns stocks pull back as the federal reserve warns an virus risks and jobless claims jump back above 1 million. >> postal politics we'll talk to north carolina's attorney general about why he joined a multi-state lawsuit to protect mail-in voting efforts. >> and is athleisure a bright spot for clothing companies. the ceo of athleta joins us this hour all time highs in yesterday's session. but following this morning, amid a cloud over the economy as the federal reserve says the coronavirus will continue to weigh heavily. for more on what he's watching, let's bring in ron temple on the phone. ron, what was it about what the federal reserve said in

yesterday's announcement that was different from the tenor throughout this summer where the fed hasn't necessarily been positive >> well, i think, actually, what the market is looking for is another reason for the next leg up if you think about what's been going on on the fiscal side. at the end of july we had pandemic reserves expire where the federal government was doing a good job it fumbled the ball since the end of july. the market was looking for assurance from the fed that it could deliver in the future. it was disappointed with what it got. >> i think the market's been disappointed by what it's gone from congress and the white house in terms of extending the stimulus you argue the programs that work should be reupped. but what would the market think if what it got in a couple weeks was an extension to the ppp program for small business and funding for the post office? >> that's definitely insufficient if we look at it -- when i look

at the weekly jobless claims, people focus on 1.1 million. i turn to seeing how many people are relying on unemployment right now. it's 28 million americans. you multiply it by the 60 $0 a week they were getting in july that's $17 billion a week. $875 billion a year. that's a huge amount of consumption. it supports small businesses and other jobs i think we need to see the unemployment benefits extended and we also need to see help for state and local governments. 20 million americans work for state and local governments. 60% of those employees are in the education profession if we want to reopen schools and have our kids get back to schools, we need a safe plan you have to pay these people right now state and local governments are strapped sales tax revenues are down and the pratt revenues are weak going forward as well. >> ron, good morning i want to talk broader markets and the indices.

we got s&p all-time highs and apple hitting 2 trillion in market cap i wonder to what degree should investors be concerned about investing in things that aren't huge juggernauts, that have been powering higher? >> i think the indices will make you think everything is perfect. the median stock in the snap 500 is down year to date looking at 6 %, 7% so the index is up 4.5%. there's a tale of two cities you have 150 stocks that are down over 20% year to date when i look at the market, i think you've got some companies that are particularly in the tech sector great competitive advantages in some cases they deserve higher valuations. they're getting reflected. but you've got quite a few other stocks in the market where

investors are having to extrapolate out to 2025, 2030 and beyond to try to find when a company is going to earn a profit and they're paying up for that profit a decade from now when you have to stretch that far to make a company make sense, that's really dangerous territory for investment and by the way, if you go down the mid cap sectors, there are speculative vaccine makers bit up people are trying to buy lottery tickets instead of investing, especially when you consider competition. >> do they have to redefine diversification? domestic stocks, you're talking about large stocks that powered the gain and the median stock and s&p is down 5% how do you diversify >> i think this is where active security selection comes into play let me zoom out. i think the 60/40 model is to

some degree going to have to be reevaluated. bonds are giving you the income you used to get. i think the bond component of asset allocation needs to be rethought. within equities, this is really important. the security selection is critical because looking to understand what is going to drive the cash flow for companies, what are their competitive advantages what does the balance sheet look like and evaluating and saying what parts of co-vid are permanent? what are the effects of the pandemic that will last and which ones won't when you do that analysis, you'll find pretty big parts of the market left behind flex, travel and leisure stocks. consumer discretionary left for dead by investors. once we get to a vaccine and start thinking about a post pandemic world y. some of those will look attractive if they have the balance sheet to see them through >> ron, as investors continue to seek direction this market has

been driven by headlines on the coronavirus. and there has been an improvement over the last week in terms of the u.s. dealing with the coronavirus but we are sure to see a spike in case counts as students go back to school what should investors make of that data specifically >> i think it's really tough i guess the key thing is to see if we learn from our mistakes. in terms of basically intelligently reopening. and i think this school issue is a tough one. i worry we could see yet another flairup of infections on the back of schools reopening, and again, it's not like the children are likely to die from co-vid we've learned it's less fatal for younger patients but it's more important what they do when they bring it home so i think it's going to be important to watch what happens in terms of the 234ur78 numbers to see how quickly state and local governments respond and to see if we get enough contact tracing. we failed on that again and again. and i worry that this is likely

to be a flareup that happens a, not only in urban areas but also rural areas where hospital systems are not equipped to deal with it. b, as we also approach the seasonal flu period of time, and that october through january, february season. so this is a real risk factor, and yet again another reason why we need congress to step up and deliver the stimulus that worked so well since march to keep the economy going as we get toward the vaccine. >> it is an experiment on a very grand scale. we will see how we do with the reopening. ron, we appreciate your time ron temple of la zard as set management while stocks have soared to new highs on wall street, it doesn't reflect the reality of pain during this pandemic. steve joins with us a closer look steve? >> yeah. john, while records are being broken on wall street, a nightmare on main street

tens of thousands of small businesses are shutting doors. many permanently and the economic effects could be felt for months in the broader economy and for years to come. in data prepared for cnbc, they found small businesses with fewer than 500 employees are closing their doors at twice the rate of bigger companies 10% of the small business clients have schedule no shifts. we are told we're going to see a long slow bleed out of companies going out of business all along main street. it's going to be take 18 months for it to play out as most recessions do, this downturn is accelerating existing trends in the economy before the crisis concentration small business formation on the decline. bigger companies in the pandemic have taken the ability to adapt and use technology markets provide them with cheaper financing than small

businesses can get a co-founder of blueprint lends to small and medium sized businesses he said all our time is being spent on forbearance agreements and helping companies avoid default. he thinks 30% to 50% of small businesses could shudder permanently. that sounds crazy, but yelp is reporting 59% of businesses that closed down during the pandemic have closed permanently. that's rising. some economists are linking the increase in jobless claims today to fallout from the end of ppp that's the biggest government program aimed directly at small business and it's closed down for now. >> i'll take it from there i have a question for you. those -- there was a lot of angst about the main street

lending facility the fed has stabilized markets but do they have the tools to help small business, main street >> it's a great question we will have a part two of this series tomorrow. i'll give you a curtain raiser to the extent that yes, they have the tools but from what i'm hearing it's not attracted the interest of small businesses at this moment. for whatever reason, it's not doing the trick. and what's even more interesting about that is one federal reserve program working, the corporate credit program, and one not working, the mainstree lending facility, is actually making the situation worse for small businesses it's widened the gap in financing. it is much more expensive now for small businesses to borrow money and google as you know, they placed some corporate debt recently at 0.75%.

>> steve, thank you for that we want to get back to the news that steve bannon, former adviser to the president has been charged with two counts of conspiracy >> reporter: that's right. steve bannon arrested and indicted along with three other men. the charges relate to their fundraising for what was initially a to fund me campaign. we build the wall in an effort to raise domoney. improperly they were skimming some of the money for their own personal use they said publicly they weren't going to take any salary and all the money was going to go toward the fundraising efforts. steve bannon indicted today. we're told he's in federal custody, and a source familiar says bannon is expected to plead not guilty we expect to see him in court later today. meanwhile, we're wait and see the reaction in the white house.

we've been speaking with one former senior administration official who says that this official does not expect the president to use his pardon capability here. these charges are unrelated to bannon's service in the white house or anything related to the russia matter which has been sensitive to the president so the president might not move forward with a pardon. we'll wait and see for official reaction from the white house. and carl, one other thing. today in a legal development for the president, a federal judge is throwing out the president's lawsuit trying to block the manhattan district attorney from getting access to the president's financial documents. that is a setback for the president of the united states it's a win for the da who is investigating. we'll see whether the president ultimately ends upturning over the documents. we expect that his team will appeal this decision back over to you guys. >> i think that has already hit the wires. expectations of an appeal and a delay. eamon, i want you to put into

context, dismissing the case with prejudice the bannon arrest, indictment, and the report which found operators cooperated with operatives of putins >> there's a lot of digest i want to flag for people the fact that the southern district of new york, the arm of the department of justice which is engaged in the bannon indictments, indictment and arrests, this document was signed by audrey straus, the acting u.s. attorney in the southern district of new york. there was intrigue around that position earlier in the summer when the president stepped in to fire her predecessor that led to a standoff there berman refused to go until it became clear who would be the acting replacement for him the president and attorney general bar had different candidates in mind to take that job. berman only stepped down once it was clear that investigations

would be protected that was in june now today we see this filing and of course, a couple other legal and political setbacks for the president. all these fronts does any of that matter for the election with the democratic national convention going on this week and the republican national convention next week, that's unclear. people may have made up their minds already. back over to you >> that's been one of the dynamics of the convention season not many people are undecided at this point thank you. we'll take a break here. obviously markets coming off the early intraday lows. s&p down a touch and the dow down 57. don't go anywhere.

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welcome back our next guest owns aerp operates over 400 mostly open air grocery anchored shopping centers across the country joins us to talk about the state of retail during the pandemic. connor flynn joins us on the path forward good morning >> good morning. >> on the one hand you have grocery. we've seen from the likes of walmart and target this week is strong and important as a category right now the other movie theaters and all kinds of things between. what are you seeing and hearing from tenants right now and what's needed?

>> kimco is the largest landlord for many grocery anchors including home depot and home improvement operators. we've focussed on the small businesses and seeing what we can do to help them bridge the other side of the pandemic we've benefitted from having last mile locations. some of the trends have been remarkable when you look at the data we see over 95% of the orders online made for groceries are delivered by the last mile locations we have the lines are blurring between fulfillment, distribution and last mile retail stores. with curb side pickup, we continue to see that as an evolving trend target announced over a 700% increase in curb side pickup >> we heard the devastating effect the pandemic has been having on small businesses you're in a unique position.

you've got anchors that are the big businesses that are doing well sitting often right next to small businesses that are or would be struggling. are you able to offer assistance to the small businesses because of their proximity to the larger ones and is there anything that you're doing that could perhaps be a model for either municipality states, the federal government >> we pride ourselves as being a partner. we've launched assistance programs targeted at the small businesses because we have such tremendous access to capital and have unincouple ber access, we have offered legal advice to help them navigate the ppp program. we have over 60 0 tenants that have applied for the funding we've worked with them to modify their leases with deferrals to understand that they need a

light at the end of the tunnel they need to bridge this to the other side there's tremendous, tremendous stress on their businesses right now. we've activated sidewalk cafes and green areas in our open air shopping centers and launched curb side nationwide the small businesses are benefitting from it. the small businesses are adapting and starting to use our curb side pickup program and consumers are gravitating toward it that's what we think the future of retail is about the last mile locations that can adapt. >> i'd love your thoughts on new york city. .2% positivity rate. they are leaning on tenants to bring employees back to cajole them to bringing new blood into midtown. are we at a point where that argument makes sense given positivity >> it's an interesting question. i think there's a lot of different risk tolerances out

there for individuals. we've made the plan to reopen after labor day both our new york city office and head quarters in long island. i think it depends on the individual we've made it voluntary and understanding that there is going to be differences in individuals and what they're willing to take on in terms of risk we're doing all we can to make sure it's a safe environment to come to work we've continually had dialogue with our stake holders to understand not only for our employees but what shoppers are looking for to make sure they feel safe. that's why i think curb side has resonated with retailers and consumers. we have the additional option to pick and choose how you want to shop today >> i think probably -- i don't know broadway may be a leap to start in the reopening process of manhattan i wonder theaters, movie

theaters half of them around the world are open clearly not in north america people are renting out theaters entirely to single parties for a couple hundred dollars i hope you won't mind one question on an industry specific issue, but where are we on movie theaters >> tough to know what the future looks like for us we have a diversified portfolio. movie theaters is less than 1% of our cash flow when you look at the future of the movie theater, it's probably tied to the vaccine. there may be some individuals comfortable going into a movie theater in different areas of the country with low infection rates. it's going to be specific to those individuals and their risk tolerance. there's a backlog of movies yet to come out and big block busters i think will draw them back, but i think it's closely tied to a vaccine where people

feel comfortable gathering >> the general public is not so sympathetic. they believe you should be willing to help your tenants at the cost of being less profitable i'm wondering if you agree in some sense with you and if you think there's going to be a long-term recalibration of your business model if you don't get help from washington >> we're over the 8 -- 98% occupied with anchors. they should pay our rent so we can help the small businesses bridge to the other side at 94% of our tenants open, including anchors and small shops and collections over 82 %. there's a tight correlation between them we're working to help those small businesses because we know they're the ones most in need. and as a landlord, we look at it as a partnership we understand that going into this pandemic, it's not their fault that they didn't have a big balance sheet or a lot of

cash on hand to navigate through this that's where it's a big different difference to partner. we can use our tools to help them get to the other side it's a partnership we recognize the secret sauce of the shopping center are the local businesses the ones that connect with the community and are establishments from the community that would be generations owned. we want them to keep can their lights on. they're the ones that make that shopping center shine in my opinion. >> yeah. all right. thank you connor kimco realty ceo and now for our etf spotlight. taking a look at the etf ticker soxx it's up 42% from a year ago. nvidia on the back of its earnings beat and intel. nvidia the top performer beating och on the top and the bottom lines

despite weak performance on the data center business and intel announcing a $10 billion stock buyback program. the ceo saying the stocks have been selling well below the intrinsic valuation. "squawk on the street" will be right back

welcome back

here's your cnbc news update at this hour. within the last 30 minutes, the state of michigan has a $600 million preliminary settlement they did not properly treat the flynn water problem. most of the money will settle claims made on behalf of children russian opposition leaderal vaug is in a hospital after losing consciousness in an airplane opponents of vladimir putin say they suspect he was poisoned by russia's security services an aide says he drank a cup of tea at an airport cafe in portland, oregon police declared riot conditions for a second night after protesters broke windows in an attack on the local immigration and customs enforcement office. squawk is ckn o nus.ba itwmite

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a postmaster general is set to testify before a senate panel tomorrow morning we are taking a closer look at the money behind the man >> reporter: good morning. the postmaster general is under fire not just over the way he's managing the post office but also over his vast financial disclosures. before he took over in july he had spent decades working with usps and with the kpelt or thes. he was ceo of a logistics company that was sold to xpo his stake in that company was worth between 25 and $50 million according to his public disclosures. it's unclear how much he has divested he's held shares of ups and amazon and days before he took that job, he sold between 250,000 and $500,000 in amazon stock and instead purchased

options that expire in october democratic lawmakers are questioning his close ties to the trump administration he is a major gop donor. he led fundraising for the 2020 convention and since 2016 he has given $1.3 million directly to the rnc and 1.2 million to the trump victory fund he said i take my ethical obligations seriously and i have done what is necessary to ensure i am and will remain in compliance with those obligations. the post office's inspector general told us it's looking into requests from lawmakers to specifically investigate both his financial disclosures and his divestments. back over to you >> all right thank you. post office making news on multiple fronts this morning north carolina's ag won of 20 state ags suing the usps over practices. good to have you with us this

morning. >> pleasure to be with you this morning. >> what's on the line for dejoy tomorrow >> well, i think congress needs to do its proper function which is to provide critical oversight, and funding so congress has an important role to make sure there aren't problems with conflicts of interest my concern is the attorney of north carolina is to make sure the law is followed and that the post office is protected he instituted a series of dramatic changes, telling postal carriers they had to abandon their route before the mail was delivered. to leave mail on the floor they have disassembled sorting machines across the country including in charlotte and fayettevil fayetteville these are being done within weeks of a major election. it's not only about the election it's critical for small businesses y. seniors get social security checks.

i'm going to do everything i can to protect the good functioning of our u.s. postal service >> you mentioned the disassembling of sorting equipment. a lot of the video made its way to states like north carolina and iowa and michigan. it was largely without context what did you make of the video is it related to the concerns we've been talking about for a few weeks? >> here's the truth. we should not be -- the postal service should not be embarking on a radical restructuring within 11 weeks of an election when more americans will vote by mail than any other election in history. the request for absentee ballots is up ten fold here over four years ago. to the extent he can convince congress that the sorting machines are not necessary at some point to not do this during an election n. that's why we're demanding he stop the changes he's instituting and reverse the

damage that has been done. >> well, mr. attorney general, he seems to be saying that he's delaying the changes i wonder, is it possible for congress to truly oversee a postal system that has so many locations and so many people involved to ensure that there aren't changes taking place that they would find objectionable? >> i'm share that concern. i'm going to do everything in my power to make sure the postal service works well so that north carolinians get the benefit of it that is desperate for so many people in my state, but two, that they will know their vote counts, and what's great about north carolina is north carolinians can vote we're the first state in the country that are send in mail-in ballots. you can request it today, get it, mail it in three weeks and be certain your vote will count. you can vote 17 days of early

voting including two weekends and even november third. people should not be discouraged by the distressing developments at the postal service. >> the postmaster general said he was going to pause the reforms until after the election, but that's different from bolstering the efforts of the usps democrats suggested $25 million is needed. the administration backed $10 million. what do you think -- >> >> two things need to happen. one is ensuring health and long-term vitality of the postal service, but also additional things need to be done for the elections. i hope congress will get to the right number that's why i'm concerned not only about the words on a page he wrote a memo saying i am stopping these few things. that's just not enough we need commitments that all

changes will be halted not just the ones he identified and they will reverse the damage that's the assurance that the people of this country deserve, because democracy depends on people have faith in the legitimacy of the results. >> finally, you know, there's so much -- so many arguments being built around the losses that the postal service has endured over the years in the billions of dollars. but then someone counters with the argument that we're dropping a trillion dollars sometimes two trillion dollars like it's nothing. i wonder if you think it's deadening our sense of urgency when it comes to fixing some of the inefficiencies at usps >> the usps does have some requirements that other businesses don't have to have. congress required them to prefund their health benefits for 50 years it would put a lot of companies in the red the other thing is we want the postal service to be an efficient, well functioning

institution. but it is a service. that last mile, that person in north eastern north carolina who lives 15 miles from the post office, they zedeserve to get their package delivered just like somebody in washington d.c. or new york. it costs a little bit more i think we have to be grateful that this institution from our founding continues to provide essential services to people all across the country >> we'll see what happens tomorrow appreciate your time thank you very much. attorney general of the state of north carolina, thank you. and still to come, six-time gold medalist nocianunng a partnership with athleta we're going to talk about it next stay with us traded goods.

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rick santelli is in chicago. it's time for the santelli exchange >> the federal reserve, i think today is a wonderful day to have one. in the minutes yesterday we learned of ongoing discussions even though they didn'tend in notion of actually trying to control the yield curve.

yes, talking yield curve control. when we put a certain amount on the differential between short rates and long rates and try to peg it there, whether it's tens to twos at 50 basis points, 20, 60, and no matter what you want to name it, it isn't only the treasury market, whether it's corporate or in many indirect ways equity markets, it's controlling markets and the point is rest in peace price discovery. this isn't a critique of whether the fed should be doing this or shouldn't be doing this. i understand the very interesting if not dire situation that we are in now with the two ko vco-vid virus in 2009 we did things we needed to do. the problem is it's always difficult to reel programs, policies back in to some type of normalcy so it's about the ups and the

higher ups of fed purchases meaning we don't need yield curve control. for the month of march the fed purchased roughly 347 billion of treasuries just treasuries. april, 1.13 trillion of treasury purchases. may, 157 billion urchases. june, 82 billion from that point forward up to the point we know which can change at any meeting ahead, roughly about 80 billion treasuries per point the point is it's best not to call it yield curve control, but in essence, that's sort of what it is. and the reason you don't want to call it yield curve control is because when you put that in a marketplace, especially the type of competitive global marketplace we are currently in and experiencing, the fact of the matter is making any type of exit from that is nearly impossible you change the psychology of the

market i would point to the first 2013 taper tantrum with that regard in the end, it's the same. when you can have this type of spread in several months on a mountain of purchases by the central bank, they can put rates and yield curve anywhere they want kayla, back to you >> thank you, rick as you saw this time, just when the fed thinks it's time to reel it in, there's a new crisis afoot to deal with as we head to break, shares of estee lauder, the company reported a 32% decline in sales and announced it will be cutting up to 2000 jobs. that sckto down nearly 8%. stock on the street is back in two. changing data. more and more sensitive, personal data. and it doesn't just drag hr down. it drags the entire business down -- with inefficiency, errors and waste. it's ridiculous. so ridiculous.

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american energy company signing some big deals worth as much as $8 billion with the government of iraq yesterday honey well j general electric, baker hughes and chevron working with the iraqis according to an announcement by the department of energy to expand access to traditional and alternative energy resources the president is set to meet with the prime minister of iraq and his delegation next hour a senior administration official told reporters the visit would include a broad economic discussion to help iraq solve what it called the budget conundr conundrum. iraq suffered from low oil prices and lockdowns like all the other producers. it's unclear whether these are new deals or whether they include leniency the administration has made it clear it wants to bolster the bottom line of the ally while

exacting more economic pain on iran with mike pompeo set to visit the united nations to announce a snapback of sanctions on iran from before the jcpoa or nuclear deal that's going to cause dissension at the security counsel which is supposed to be green lighting any discourse. >> interesting even as we pay broader attention to the energy complex, cramer saying it's important for the bulls that crude stays above 40. when we come back, an olympian on her new partnership with athleta, talking about olympics uncertainties and a lot more after a short break.

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welcome back, retail is getting a hit. we are joining with allyson felix who has teamed up with athleta. >> mary beth, i would love to start with you we're in a year with very little sports competition at least very little sports, olympics is a big question mark and the power of the athlete in general continues to be strong talk about the partnership >> our partnership has been such a no brainer an athlete, a mother, an activist, and it is amazing to have her be part of the brand.

from helping design the products to input on what the brand should stand for and how we show up for consumers >> allyson, what do you bring to athleta. i'm sure tokyo being delayed was a disappointment and your training schedule is upside down what are your expectations for competition in the next year >> i have the same desire and mission as athleta and i have always been about empowering women and girls. it is such an authentic fit. i hope i bring that inspiration as well to athleta training looks a lot different we had to get creative, but that goal is still the olympics even though it is postponed >> allyson, good morning, it's jon fortt. you called out nike for their a

maternity policy last year and you said this shrine about empowering women and goals what do you think the critical elements of empowerment are at a time like this >> we want women and girls to feel confident it was really important for me to hold me and other people, to hold brands accountable. have that authentic message and see it throughout the company. i want them to feel strength, confidence, and bring that with what they're wearing, and also what they're doing and what they're able to do and what they can aspire to accomplish >> looking more broadly, allyson. we're seeing the chief operating officer of pinterest talking about how she was locked out of big decisions. it's not enough to have visual representation, or even prominent women in positions of power, but it seems that brands really need to listen and

involve people how do you as someone who is prominent at a time like this make sure you have the level of influence that is required to see your vision through? >> yeah, i think it is about doing things differently everything in the past has not worked before. i love how athleta is changing a model of sponsorship and they're celebrating me holistically. not just as an athlete not just someone that runs fast. but an activist. celebrating all of the aspects of who i am. >> you know we work for comcast so we know how much it on the line for tokyo next year what is the picture from athleta's standpoint, how much damage does that do to the momentum of the large events >> i think the great thing is we have a lot of things going for

us in terms of what we offer our customer of course we want to see tokyo happen but the good news is even right now our consumers are really responding to the product. she loves the comfort and versatility for her life right now. at-home workouts, life at home, i think a lot of that will continue as well as what we're offering from a customer experience regardless of how things play out. >> allyson, if they said the games were on, do athletes in general have any reservations or are they so anxious to compete on a global scale they will try to minimize whatever health concerns there may be related to covid? >> i think we're all ready to go we're all competitors that want to get out there there is very real concern i think we all want to be healthy. we have families and this is so much bigger than sports.

as soon as we get the go ahead that things are safe then i think we're all good to go >> how are you seeing tastes change it is a less social experience than it used to be you're not gathering in groups close together and being seen. is the type of fashion that goes along with the function of the athleisure and athletic wear changing >> i think consumers are working out in a different way, but they're still working out and they're still connecting with people we had a lot of success, people working out virtually. people working out still want to feel beautiful, right? they want to have really technical products that supports

them in their activity so i don't think that has changed. i do think, of course, things like joggers for working at home, as well as working out at home have really taken off >> and allyson, i have to ask, we have a world expert here when it comes to performance and fitness, what are you doing differently during this time, what are you advising your family to do differently so that young people know ways to stay healthy in a lockdown? >> i think we're seeing people, who are not runners, having a new relationship with running because you can do it safely and near your home i'm encouraging people to stay safe and still be able to be active and running is a great way to do that marybeth, beth said it will be

to get back to normal work attire, especially high heels, any news you have heard about corporate dress codes relaxing >> i think people will just naturally for as they make their choices as they come back to work a lot of our products are things that are yes, comfortable, and yes can be used for working out, but they're also very fashionable and beautiful. it is fun to see sales of things like our raps that are very comfortable be worn on zoom calls and be worn on home just to relax and hang out with the family i think that versatility will continue to be super important and will carry into the workplace. a fascinating look at the

athleisure which was a fascinating trend before covid thank you so much. >> it is a interesting morning regarding the markets here and there has been no lack of news on this. it is 11:00 and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ ♪ ♪ help me get things right ♪ hook me up a ne