♪ with a happiness that died ♪ i let it get away servicenow. the smarter way to workflow. good afternoon, every one. welcome to "power lunch. glad you could join us on this monday afternoon stocks are surging once again to a record high on a new coronavirus treatment and vaccine hopes. heightened ahead of the election we have the details for you. look at apple. you know what's going to happen here shares at an all time high above $500 a piece that's ahead of a 4 for 1 stock

split. we'll tell you why invesetors ae piling in today. energy companies have shut in production we have the latest on the impact of tropical storms marco and laura. "power lunch" starts right now thank you, tyler as you mentioned it's shaping up to be another record breaking week on wall street. that means even more evidence mounting that stocks are getting pretty expensive bob is following the markets for us bob. >> yes it is. right now we have very light summer volume. we have fairly narrow trading range today. i like what i see and i like what i see for one particular reason for once it's not all about technology stock it started out that way at the open but it quickly changed and investers decided maybe the tech stocks are too pricey afterall today we're seeing energy stocks

bank stocks out performing, even industrials out performing the technology sec tore. that's a big change of pace for the last couple of weeks i want to show you something to give you an example of how it changed. apple started out at a new high but within a half an hour they starred off selling apple and the big megacap names and buying bank stocks. the bank etf started moving up at the same time there's a good example sell the stuff that's high price. it's valuation play. it makes perfect sense we have new highs but it's still only 6 or 7% of the s&p at new 52-week highs. that's kind of disappointing we have to broaden that out. we have apple, fedex and some of the builders like pulte. lowe's has been there for a while. are we too high priced there's some indication. if you look at the forward 12-month estimate for the s&p 500 on earnings, this is the second quarter of 2020 the second quarter of 2021

right now we're trading at 23.4 times forward earnings is that a little, that's a lot you can get an idea the market is pretty pricey right now and most of that overprice is in the technology group back to you. >> all right thank you very much. with stocks at all time highs by many measures, can the rally continue from here and what can you still safely buy let's bring in liz young director of market strategy. welcome to both of you liz, you say, as far as worrying about the disconnect seemingly between the economy and the market, get over it, folks it's just going to be that way why to you say that? >> i say that because they are

driven by different things we have to really keep that in mind i think this so called disconnect will continue for that reason. when you look at what drivers the market, first of all when we talk about the market, we're talking about the s&p 500. the three biggest sectors are technolo technology, communications and health care. together they make up more than half of the index. when we look at the economy, we talk about growth, the labor market, the manufacturing side of the economy it's driven by different things. a lot of those small businesses suffering are not represented by the stock market they don't have the same flexibility and the same diversified revenue streams. they're going to behave different in a recession and coming out of a recession. >> alally, how do i protect whai have earned or earned back over the past five months and yet still leave room for more potential gains for the rest of this year?

>> that's the big question we were talking about the distinct realities that you're seeing one is you see people out of work you see airplanes, parked on runways. you see restaurants shutdown the see the market hitting new highs and doing that week after week. >> we have to get comfortable being uncomfortable.

are very low uneconomic buyer, which is the fed that is making the risk premium between equities and bonds grow. it's also continuing to make fixed income look much less interesting rel tiative to stoc. you have to stay there you have to ride the laggards. we have talked about new highs over and over. we have to wait and hope for breadth which we're starting to see. >> you believe that europe and asia may bounce back quicker than the united states and you say make sure you not cutting

out of those areas >> i think for the last three to five years, a lot of investors have been underweight. they have been disappointing as we move through this recovery if we believe it's a global recovery, which we do. we see asia coming out of that fastest and we see europe not trailing far behind. you want to make sure you have exposure to that you want to make sure as an investor that if you had a strategic underweight, maybe reevaluate that. i think this is an okay time to take some gains in technology. i wouldn't rotate out of technology i think it's a great long term play it's okay to take some gains in tech and redeploy it into some of those areas you've been underweight or if you have cash on the sidelines, there's going to be probably a flood into some of the things that from a valuation perspective look more

attractive than large cap u.s. stocks you have a much more nuanced and studied thought on that. if a vaccine is only 50% or 55 percent effective and gets approval because that's the benchmark for effectiveness and it's safe but only 50% of people decide they will take the vaccine, then that doesn't get you to the kind of immunity you need to have a fully functioning economy, does it >> no. the vaccine is not the panacea to this pandemic it could unleash another leg of the upside let's talk about those numbers a vaccine is effective we're having this sort of debate

daily when it's somewhere between 50 and 70% effective in the population of preventing now we have the numbers of people who say they will take vaccines in this country is steadily coming down you have a 25% effective rate. that does not equal herd immunity i think while there's excitement and there should be in therapeutics and the vaccine, speed of that vaccine bolstering the economy, i think to hold on and say that's going to unleash this amazing amount of upside and once we can start to mass produce that we're okay is a little myopicmyopic. >> thanks very much.

stocks keep rocking. concerns about the economy is growing. debates for full recovery keeps getting pushed back. steve has the details. >> they see the current recession ending in the second half of this year in the third or fourth quarter. 15% see a 10% chance or less of a double dip recession 48% see a 25 to 33% chance and 32% see a 50% chance or more looking at what they are looking at elsewhere in the outlook. they see fiscal policy they would like to be $1.5 trillion they do see a fiscal package coming but like it to be 1.5 trillion or higher

40% of business close e youurese permanent. our rapid update looks at the incoming data for the third quarter. it ticked up by five points. we started the quarter at a 20%. the ytd thereidea there's a lot scarring going on in the economy. >> go head, kel. as i look at those two final numbers there, it was a large p plurality said 25 to 30% double dip. a smaller number said 50% of a double did put those two together you have more than 80%.

>> it's a big number concerned about there being a second go around here. >> thanks very much. kelly, sorry i stepped on you. >> that was my question. >> the answer won't be worth anything, but i'll answer it thanks a lot coming up, energy, financials and materials leading the market higher. we'll have the latest on what two potential hurricanes and the election could mean for the energy sector. the race for vaccine is on with reports that president trump could fast track one ahead of the election. a top bio tech analyst will be

along to separate fact from fiction. that's always helpful. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. people who have recovered from covid-19 to be used as a treatment in those who are still fighting it. at the same time the white house is considering fast tracking a vaccine from astrazeneca here is kayla.

>> reporter: president trump is aiming to kick off the week of the republican national convention with positive news on treating covid which continues to claim 40 lives an hour here in the united states on sunday the food and drug administration and department of health and human services issuing an emergency use authorization for convalesce plasma to be used for more hospitalized patients fp move came after senior health officials including dr. anthony fauci raised objectives because they thought the data was too weak to be conclusive. the president accused the deep state at the fda for making it very difficult for drug companies to test vaccines and suggesting those people want to delay until after the election that appears to be president trump's new deadline for the operation warp speed the ft in the new york times report that astrazeneca vaccine for covid that is in trial could

be fast tracked before november 3rd according to their sources it has not discussed this emergency authorization with the government and it won't have trial results until later this year if fda on guideline say a vaccine would have to have 50% effectiveness to get approved and if vaccine were approved that were unsafe or untested, he would resign tyler and kelly. >> the mixture of science and politics would be concerning to a lot of people in the medical community. the idea there's an electoral time line on some of these studies that are going on. >> reporter: i think there is an important thread to look at here and that is what type of approval would be granted. whether it would be a temporary or emergency approval that would be granted for only the sickest

patients versus a broad approval for the general population that's not expected to happen this year because of the availability of data and the availability of the vaccine itself there was some reporting that the treasury secretary and the white house chief of staff raised the possibility of this fast track in a meeting with democrats in late july as part of their coronavirus aid negotiations i'm told that did not happen and are kiezi iaccusing democrats o mischaracterizing those conversations. a few officials at the fda said that acknowledged there was some hand wringing going on but said if they had covid-19 they would want the plasma because it's viewed as more effective than not taking it. which bio tech name should investors now bet on

michael, are there any names that you think are undervalued for their potential here we'll go back the michael in just a second. tyler, back to you all right. still ahead, the vaccine hopes are helping to give bid to the airlines as yesterday was the second busiest day for air travel since the pandemic began. we'll talk about that plus energy leading the market. energy as oil and gas production comes to stand still in parts of gulf of mexico as storms barrel down we have the latest details on ase storms brewing off the more power lunch right after this wow. jim could you pop the hood for us? there she is. -turbocharged, right? yes it is. jim, could you uh kick the tires? oh yes. can you change the color inside the car? oh sure. how about blue? that's more cyan but. jump in the back seat, jim. act like my kids.

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welcome back with the government throwing its support behind more treatment and vaccines for more on the race for the cure, let's bring in michael are there any names that you think are undervalued relative to their potential here? >> thanks for having me on it's a huge pull back. we will reiterate, i think the data sets coming up will be positive i think the stocks will move up on that. how long the stocks will stay up and whether people flock to other sector s a bigger question that we're now having on some of trading of these stocks. >> interesting you're telling me that you look at some of those names that others would say are more speculative plays.

moderna never developed something like this. you think these pull backs are a good buying opportunity? >> i think that they've had a 20, 25% pull back. i think there's still some uncertainty as to whether the a data sets will be positive i think the stocks will move back up on that. i think the bigger question on a two, three, four month time horizon is how sustainable those moves are. i think a lot of people are starting to believe they will be positive and other sectors within biotech are the market. >> it's almost like you would want to buy them in anticipation of them being effective. what about -- one of the kind of differences of opinion is whether investors should focus on these particular names like the modernas of the world. the vaccine candidates or focus on the bigger names like pfizer

that have other levers to pull if the technology doesn't pan out for if it does, they are less vulnerable to buy the rumor, sell the fact what would you say about the big cap pharma names >> we believe in the vaccines are positive and we are going into 2021 in a better situation within health care that there's probably going to be a reversion back to focusing on fundamentals i think people will start to move away from the covid volatility in buying this on the hopes of how much sales are and become more of a focus on the fundamental stuff because not just within biotech but the broader market as well >> can i ask what you make of these vaccines coming from china and russia

in insight of the development of them rather than the process we're pursuing here? >> i think this is really important. you look at some of the data that's come out of china and i think there's a difference between these countries saying that they have some sort of accelerated approval in china giving it to the army and the defense and russia a bit of the same we're giving our vaccines to 15, 20, 30,000 people in a clinical trial. they are getting it. i think there's probably a different standard for what people are willing to accept as emergency authorization and safe enough to deploy to different pop y enough to deploy to different pop ylation populations. >> do you think the vaccine we come up with will be the global standard >> i do believe the technology out of moderna and j and j and

merck, i feel very confident >> one quick question. plenty of people have pointed out maybe with the exception of moderna, they're noot necessarily going to make a lot of money off this vaccine. even fp they work, do investors want exposure? >> i think there will be profits made moderna has a term there are profits. if you're going to do two or three billion dollars a year, is that worth the 15 or 20 billion dollar valuation or do you need other pipeline drugs to come there? it will be profits how you value that is a totally different question people had very high expectations >> those come back down a little

bit. thank you. very much appreciate it. >> thank you airline stocks climbing higher this day. phil joining us now with the details. >> a nice move higher for the airline stocks today as you take a look at the major carriers up anywhere between 5 an 9% american being the stock that's moving the highest today the reason we're looking at american is because the company announcing it will be using surface wise two which is coding that will be sprayed on the interior of its plains over the next few weeks or a couple of months they will have this coating to be applied on the surfaces why is this important? the epa has approved the application of surface wise. it's a virus killing coating this is part of the airlines continuing to say we're making it as safe as possible for you to fly how many people are flying right now? well, on sunday, it was up to 841,000 people that's the second most we have

seen since march still down 66% compared to the same time last year. in terms of the airline stocks and what they have done, it's a lot like this chart. it's a bit of a pop when people thaw things were going to get better in may and june since then, it's pretty much been trending sideways as we continue to wait for when we will see the real take off in airline traffic and nobody will predict that right now does it come in six months, a year, two years? nobody is quite sure >> thank you very much the airlines etf ticker symbol jets is now up 55% from the march lows as those stocks do continue to bounce back for now. let's bring in your trading nation team. you see the more positive but it's qualified and a narrow kind

of thread the needle trade on southwest. explain. >> i guess we're neutral here. airlines review broadly, it's a beta trade tied to the reopening of the global economy. they can move a lot in a short amount of time we're kind of stuck in this middle where it's too late to bet against them i think difficult to bet against them given how they move they still don't -- they haven't developed enough to rate well. ticker luv, it has stabilized. i see counter trend strength into $42 which is resistance at its 200-day average. as long as support at its 50 day is up. that's at 33 that's your stock level.

>> 33 is the stop level. not a lot of money to be made. you're not saying you endorse buying southwest at these levels mark, you're down on the whole group. >> i don't own any airline stocks i just don't have the stomach to trade those day in and day out we're still down like 65 to 70% from a year ago. until that normalizes and when i say normalize, i mean down 25% year over year it will be permanent demand destruction. until that normalizes, i'll be on the side lines. domestic travel is less banged up than international. at first glance you'd think thinking with the smaller airlines will be the play. i don't think that's the case.

it's the gold standard for any of these rewards programs. it drops money straight to the bottom line. it was 60 bucks back in january. now it's 30. unfortunately, i think it will take a long time for it to get back to 60 i do like that one best. >> all right thanks very much, guys we appreciate it for more trading nation you can head to our website or you can follow us on twitter @tradingnation still ahead, massive storms heading if the gulf of mexico. what it means for the emergency market, next apple stock is said to make a four for one split as it crosses over $500 share. we'll have the whole details what's your vice one top analyst explains why they are bullish on beer and weed stocks. stay with us we miss you.

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welcome back here is your cnbc news update. california supreme court has of turned the death sentence for scott peterson who was convicted in 2004 for murdering his pregnant wife. they found jury selection errors in the fundamental pi phase of sentencing new york attorney general revealing an investigation into whether president trump and his business inflated asset values on financial statements. the filing also named eric trump. james asked a court to enforce subpoenas related to the probe

miami dolphin fans will get a chance to watch their home opener in person the team has gotten approval to have up to 13,000 socially distanced spectators at the game this is on september 20th. this son the same day that florida is reporting continued drops in covid-19 hospital sagss, new cases and deaths. you're up to death that's the news update this hour back to you. >> it's so tough you like everything that feel like it's going back normal while still worrying it will be a set back from going back normal >> we'll have to wait and see, do the best we can keep our fingers crossed, wear our masks. >> thanks. we have record highs for the s&p and nasdaq the kick off the week the dow is still 5% below its previous high. it's lead looedi inthe way. the s&p is up 26 how about the oil market it's closing up for the day with hurricanes bearing down and closing slightly higher as the

two storms hit the gulf of mexico shutting down more than half of production there >> bringing a will the of rain laura is coming up behind it laura is expected to strengthen. the city of port author, texas issuing a mandatory evacuation order as of 6:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. that's an oil and gas refining capital. we have some great maps that we made up about where the assets are. you probably know this by now. if you don't, we'll show it to you again. houston has 2.8 million barrels day. beaumont, 1.7 million including the massive motiva looks like laura will turn

toward texas the big players in beaumont, exxon. valero is scattered equally between houston and northerly as well it's actually been not that bad. the reason oil is not going up is very simple these supply disruptions that are expected aren't enough to counter the sub squents drop in demand because everybody will be locked down. not because of covid but because of these twin storms rolling through. you have fires out west. everything else is going on. luckily marco has weakened let's hope laura does the same >> one follow up, it's not clear. maybe you can telldated informa

comes close, that city, especially since they were so late to get hit with covid they are just trying to come out of that. >> houston is close to my heart. they are tough i was there during harvey. i was shocked at how quickly the city came back they said the city drains fast i said what do you mean by that. they said just watch six feet of water on a road one day. the next day it was gone they're tough. they're texans it's been 102 degrees. now you have these twin storms coming through they are back to back. this will be some of the fastest hits of twin storms in modern history.

almost everybody has gotten their crews off the oil platforms. >> we appreciate it. ty thank you. it is not just those hurricanes that could ruin the energy market the presidential election just around the corner. the differences are stark. what would a biden victory heen for t -- mean for the sector? good to have you on with us. i can imagine the gop will paint mr. biden's strategy as radical and leftist. but will it really be as radical and leftist as it will be painted or more pragmatic than th that >> we think the biden plan is pragmatic by democratic party standards. there's a 2 trillion dollar

climate plan it will be heavily weighted thwart toward renewables. there's no ban on fracing. there's no ban on u.s. oil and gas exports. there's a ban on new permits for drilling on federal land but that's different from a wholesale fracking ban natural gas, looks like it could have relative support under biden administration natural gas is needed to hit the climate change goals it fits in foreign policy goals as well. oil will struggle. we don't see the wholesale on the fossil fuel industry >> gas wins and renewables win >> renewable s a clear winner. absolutely

wind, solar. those are what you want to look for in the biden plan. what's also interesting for oil is the foreign policy. president trump will be talking a lot about his foreign policy successes. american energy dominance is what they talk about having this ababundants u.s. resource biden administration, one thing we point to is we could potentially see the u.s. going back into the jcpo nuclear deal with iran. that could bring about an additional million barrels of iranian exports back on the market we say that's an important foreign policy decision that could be quite bearish in the near term for oil market balances right now we are struggling with weak demand. >> i would guess, i'm not certain, but i guess a biden administration might want to go back into the paris accords for

whatever they are worth. >> absolutely. >> let's talk about a second trump administration that would help conventional oil and gas producers and drillers and it probably would help the frakers and it probably would help the coal miners, right? >> i think it's one of the key things to look at for a trump administration is continuation of the emphasis on being supportive of development of the u.s. resource. the drill baby drill continues i would think we still continue to see strong support for sanctioning iran keeping the barrels auch the market also president trump has really weighed in recently in terms of micromanaging opec decision. he got that deal across the finish line. got the russians and the saudis back at the table to put in a floor for prices to help the u.s. producers he's been an energy diplomat

>> i doipn't want to catch you f guard but in the last couple of weeks we heard a lot about drilling in the arctic national wildlife reserve if that goes through as it appears it may, what percentage of anwar, what would the footprint of that be >> here's the key thing to think about. you can allow drilling but the question is, do the economics of drilling work right now? >> i think that's the bigger question it's an important environmental question biden administration would not allow drilling even if the trump administration goes through, this is not a price point that develops that resource

>> thank you thank you for your insights. stocks are higher across the board. part of that due to i crease hopes in treatments in vaccine to fight the spread of coronavirus. it's helping the cruise lines today which are up 8, 9% we have more on that right after this

welcome back time for our monday movers we're starting with cruise lines. they're all moving higher. we told you about hopes for the astrazeneca vaccine.

hoping to flip the stocks in the range of 8 to 10%. news other companies working on vaccines and treatments are falling sharply. all of them not necessarily loving the prospect of a vaccine treatments elsewhere shares of rocket companies are continuing to take off stock just went public earlier at $18 a share hit a high under 30 today as optimism about a housing boom continues after friday's big jump in existing home sales. bonus mover, pinterest, citigroup downgrading it to neutral from buy saying the run up is no longer compelling pinterest shares down 4.5% after the downgrades tyler. apple shares are topping $500 for first time ever today which means even some of the most bullish analysts are getting left in the dust we will tell you where those targets stand and everything you need to know as that stock gets ready to split

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welcome back, everybody. apple is at a record high. topping $500 a share excitement over the upcoming stock split sends the stock to levels even the most bullish apple analysts would not have thought possible josh lipton is looking at that

for us hi, josh >> that's right, tyler apple hitting $520 in today's trade. you can see here, that is higher than the most bullish forecast on the street. the average price target actually implies a 15% drop from these levels the highest target right now, that would go to mr. dan ines at webbush. the stock we know has been on a terror surging 70% this year, 150% over the past 12 months hitting the milestone last week. the first publicly traded u.s. company to reach a market cap of $2 trillion. and this coming ahead of a big day for investors. with apple enacting the new four for one stock split. each apple shareholder at the close of business today receiving three additional shares for every share they

hold trading will will then begin on a split adjusted basis on august 31st so why do this apple's cfo telling me retail investors are important to us. and the stock now at the price where it is today we can bring it down to a level that is more affordable to a lot of people that have an interest in owning it back to you. >> all right josh, thank you. josh lipton on apple's big day buy beer buy marijuana? hope for the best. that can be your weekend plan. up next, an analyst makes the case for beer and weed saying sam, boston beer could hit $1,000 at at $886 and pot stocks could light it up. stay with us

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beer stocks are jumping on a pickup in demand since the covid-19 lockdowns sam could go even higher joining us on the kcnbc news lie is vivien azer she raised the price on sam to $1,000 a share how much of this is on hard seltzer? >> good to be with you a good chunk of it it's a combination of hard seltzer and more efficients on advertising spending hard seltzer specifically. >> so explain how that gets the valuation in boston beer up to $1,000 a share >> certainly historically, boston beer company spent 30% of revenues on advertising and promotional expense. if you benchmark that to some of the key competitors like the miller-coors business or the constellation beer business. they're spending three times as

peers. what we saw isadvertising and promotional expense fell dramatic will toy 22.2% of sales. that was down over 700 basis points and that's a record low for the company. and what the cfo is they said advertising spending in absolute dollars going forward as opposed to a percentage of sales which sets the company up for a lot of operating lnch on the sgna line item given the very robust top growth you're seeing on hard seltzer. >> interesting to hear you say you think they're going to spend less of their sort of balance sheet going forward on advertising and promotions that's a good thing. a lot of companies who have experimented with that in the past found out that they lose market share as a result >> oh, well, i would certainly not advocate cutting to the bone to put the numbers in context, constellation brands is 10% of sales in terms of beer advertising spending so even our estimate for next year at 21.5% of sales has been hitting well above the

benchmark. and importantly, in absolute dollar terms, we still have their quarterly advertising spending going about 7% into next year. >> is the hard seltzer a fad >> if you asked me a year ago, i would have said maybe. but the evolution of the category over the last 12 months makes me think no. when we reflect why though have 10% of share of beer is why it resonates with consumers under the age of 35. over 30% of them report drinking hard seltzer we think this is the generation that grew up with lecroix and now this is sparkling watt we are alcohol. >> let me ask you what is going on with the cannabis stocks which you also cover what names do you think are a buy and why? >> sure. so we have a bias towards the u.s. multistate operators and our favorite name in the united states is green thumb industries we also have outperform ratings on cresco labs

if you look at the growth that we saw quarter over quarterer in calendar q for the good operators, it was ranging between mid teens and as high as 42%. they reported last thursday. so clearly this cat gory has not lost any steam with covid-19 and showing resiliency we look ahead, we think the election could be a meaningful category for the industry in the u.s. there are ballot initiatives that we're looking out for new jersey and arizona the most in terms of adult use. number two slegtilegislative le. there are a number of states in the northeast that we're watching out for in new york, connecticut and pennsylvania and november 3rd, we feel highly conviction that the democrats take the senate, we will will see federal policy change. >> all right viven azer, thank you.

sounds like it's about to be legalized around these parts >> it certainly does how do you get a job like hers >> very lucky lady >> i don't know. just seems like -- it seems like of all the things you could research this might be one of the better ones. i don't know whatever >> thanks for watching we'll see you tomorrow "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you, kelly and tyler. welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here with brian sullivan who is in for wilfred frost to i day. welcome. s&p 500 is above 3400. let's look at what is driving the action a rally in technology. apple is sitting at hay hia high today. amazon, alphabet aand adobe the total number of cases continues to fall.