tv Squawk Alley CNBC September 8, 2020 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
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>> good tuesday morning. julia borsten joins us for the hour as well we saw a resumption of selling after friday's intraday low. back to 3360 on the s&p. got an initial bounce in some of those high fliers, julia, energy still problematic, but disney up 3% will be something to watch today. >> that is right disney up 3% on that deutsche bank note. disney did offer "mulan" to disney plus subscribers and that looks like it may have driven more downloads i also want to point to the fang stocks facebook down, apple down nearly
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4%, amazon off and google off. but netflix is the out liar this morning. netflix shares really out performing this year >> tesla is down about 14% this morning. if you look for a full week it is down about 24%. but you know that is only about three weeks of gains it has lost it is still up about 24% over the past one month 90% over the past three. considering that, and all of the moves that this and other stocks have had, let's get to bob with more market movers bob? >> john, 4-1 declining to advance in stocks. what we don't have today is they have just barely avoided the
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moves. they moved down, oil, the energy ets is at the lowest level so they're doing nothing but drifting lower this morning. banks got lower yields and a flatter curve. we are off of the lows and we are at about 116 right now so just off of these lows here for some of the tech names, but not much, it looks choppier than it did on thursday and friday when it was straight down. so a little choppier there as you see today.
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a healthy correction is going on look at these. these are 25%. >> the important thing is why did they run up, it is not the same in terms of the valuations. for now they are down 1% on their earnings that is one reason that tech stocks keep performing if look at the financials down 26% industrials, that is not a typo, they have losses out there they are frosty, but there is
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justification for some frothiness valuations are mattering right now. >> joining us this morning, a senior analyst, the manager director this morning, good to see you both >> good morning. >> mark, to bob's point just now this notion that a lot of news names were fully priced. a lot of retail players. they got a haircut to some degree, they remain fundamentally superior is that your view? >> that is my view >> the earnings cycle proved the defensiveness of a lot of the names. if these were the lows, and a
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majority of the large cap tech names, effectively growing through that, you feel good about what happens and them accelerating off of these new norms. i would definitely take that view. >> so prioritize a shopping list so to speak if you thought the bulk of the selling were to be done >> yeah, i think the name they would probably call out here, it would probably be google, right? they have not gone on the same run of the likes of facebook and amazon search was down and if people are not searching, that business effectively suffered but if you look at a name that should accelerate and perhaps play a little catch up trade if you will, that is the name i would circle when you look at travel coming back you have seen amazon pause their
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ad spend for the first part. now they're starting to come back and respend on the platform that's not just amazon's budget, that's all of the clearing price for product related searches i think that is the name that stands to benefit the most >> while on a percentage basis, given how far up we run, maybe this market action is not too much to be concerned about i wonder if it wasn't valuations based on peer valuations are peer valuations not the only way that investors need to be thinking about whether or not a stock is worth a certain price >> sure, thanks, john. clearly relative valuation is important, but fundamental
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valuation and the ability to generate free cash flow overtime, and the price with the intrinsic fair value, it is the most important and we tend to look at both, right? so we look at the fundamental valuations and what i would say is on a fundamental basis, the group, true, had a big run and were trading probably within 15% of a five-year high for the group in general but that said there are names, even in the mega caps like a google that are still trading at 15 times cash flow for a dominant player growing at 15% to 20% for years to come plus you have youtube, cloud, facebook growing around 20%. plus you have catalysts around shops, facebook gaming, and
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amazon is probably the one that is trading the highest, but again, this is the fastest grower in the group and the largest mega cap growing at some 30%. so yes, relative valuation is something to mutt too much emphasis on, but you have to fall back on fundamentals, and they don't seem, honestly, too out of whack with where they should trade with a two-year view they got attractive >> i want to return to something in a you just mentioned about facebook you mentioned that gaming and shops could be a catalyst for facebook you just wrote a note, issued a note, that gaming could be the next billion dollar leg up most analysts are focusing on a shopping opportunity why do you think it could be so
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big? >> yeah, they diving into the shops business, three to four weeks ago. maybe even earlier than that what drew our attention is the deal that they did with microsoft. it was a gaming platform, a few weeks ago, maybe three weeks ago, and that is strategic mixer is not huge, but it shows that facebook is very serious about doubling down. they are playing catch up to twitch and to google, but between the exit tant business, and between what they're doing in vr, with oculous, we think
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they could build a multibillion dollar business overtime we this is a over the next three, four, and five years. we think is something that people don't focus on, and this is something that is really important. twitch is generating a billion and a half or two billion, the same thing for youtube i don't see why facebook, with a three billion for their audience, with $8 million payingtipaying ti advertisers, why they can't build in a streaming platform. >> mark, i noticed you picked google and not amazon that has a couple pieces of news on the tape today
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and of course we'll start talking holidays with increasing frequen frequency. >> i think amazon was a clear beneficiary from the shift from at home and purchasing online. we have fundamental questions. and there is a belief around the e commerce basketba but we have not seen what happens when stores do reopen. we have five times the amount of retail, physical square foot, than anywhere else in the world. all of the bankruptcies may take it down to four times. i think there has been an inherent baked in movement of the migration online
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and i think we're waiting to see what happens when it does reopen, is it all permit nant and sustainable? i think the cloud story and the jedi story is interesting. sure price and capabilities matter a ton, but so do relationships and risk management if you take a look at what amazon effective announced before the entire crisis, doubling up their sales force, the market wills get competitive, relationships matter, so it will get more competitive and now google is being very aggressive trying to share as well. so there is a lot of potential headwinds coming up and i think the use, mentioned, that stock has gone on quite a bit of a
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run, and the relative value that you see for the likes of amazon, we prefer zoogle and facebook here >> that is a fresh take on amazon we'll see if those headwinds develop in the coming months thank you, guys, great way to start the hour. thank you, guys. >> let's get over to phil la wih the new numbers. >> the trend continues negative 96 planes in the month of august that means year to date the order drop booked negative 932 planes they had five max orders published in the month of august in a comes at the same day that boeing is saying that look,
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we're going to slow down deliveries it was reported overthe weekend and we confirmed it that they are investigating the dreamliner eight of them have been grounded they are focusing on where the fu fussile lodge joins together if they're not up to specifications they will ground the planes boeing looks to slow down delivery of the dreamliners. they delivered four last month the company saying we're taking time to thoroughly inspect completed 787s to ensure that they're free of all of the issues we expect these kmpinspections o affect the times they delivered 13 planes in august, four were
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dream liners, that is well below what they usually expect to deliver, but they said today they're slowing down the deliveries to do these inspections. so the questions continue, focused on the 787 dreamliner. >> lots of questions about that company, and you continue to follow them all. thank you phil lebeau. >> with the dow down, the s&p off, and the nasdaq off 2% we're going to have more on this selloff after the break. the nasdaq suffering the biggest three-day loss since march quk le iba ijust a bit. ♪
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welcome back, we have a date for that annual event when we expect to see new iphones and apple watches. josh lipton has the news >> apple sending out that formal invitation to their next big product event. it simply reads join us from apple park september 15th at 10:00 app pacific. this would be the event where we expect tim cook to take the stage, unveil the new iphones. we expect them to support 5g no name yet, of course and importantly no price point we know there are a lot of investors, it is the start of a
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long strong 5g cycle jon, back to you >> josh, apple stock has run up 60% year to date a lot of times people might sell into the iphone announcement, or they will sell the news. i wonder, this year, what are the expectations from analysts you do have this pandemic going on in this big run, but at the same time these devices like iphones have proven so essential to people. >> i think when you look at the big run up, john there is three big reasons. they look at apple's cash position we know apple is benefitting from that work from home trend or at least certain proteducts, and certainly investors that are excited about the 5g cycle
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i think you're right, expectations very high now what will initial demand look like for the 5g devices. some analyststhink there could be some challenges you expect the phones, the price point to be relatively high during a time of relative economic turbulence. even by the end of this year 5g coverage will be relatively limited. interesting takes for these gies devices, john. >> how much >> how much do you think this will be about the watches and apple's increasing focus on health >> so obviously at this launch we're waiting to see what comes, but certainly the expectation will not just be new phones. you would expect to see new apple watch versions as well
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jeff williams takes the stage, wearables as a broad category, that is where they dominate. their latest numbers if you look at the broad category, apple controls 35% of that market. last time i spoke to the apple ceo, he pointed out to me the wearables division that is a big line that did not exci exist five years ago >> apple has trouble innovating some say >> can't wait to see how apple rolls out this initiative. >> stocks on pace for their third straight day of losses joining us now is david rosenberg. good morning, david. >> good morning. >> what do you make of this market action over the past few days and what, if anything,
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should investors change about the way they approach things >> well i think that we're sighing once again the difference between what are great companies and what are well valued stocks and we can have the gaps in both directions it's not really about the economic data. we have that solid payroll it soared 425 points. so so the question was why would it start to rally like that? the stock market got so egregiously over valued at that point in time, so we really rewound the movie. we went into this, you know last wednesday, the nasdaq was 30%
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options if is clearly tremendous volatility, but it is probably not going to relent any time soon >>. >> i wonder when you think it will be time to tyke another look i saw travel, stats that labor day was up considerably. people are perhaps feeling more comfortable. even some of those stocks have been beat down again maybe they're not as wishly valued as some others. >>. >> i am sensitive to that, are you going to treat it as a trade
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or a real bona fide investment opportunity. we could think about what another wave of the virus could look like. we don't end up closing things down again, but the recession started in january the pandemic, initially is that righted to act people's spending behavior i'm not a big fan of the view that th that the airlines, the movie theaters, that it will be a trade. i would like to be a believer in the banks. but i don't have the earnings viz ability. -- visibility. i think if you want to be in area that's are beaten up, ignored, under loved but they have a secular hill in behind them, maybe you ought to be focused on small and mid cap areas. not the large caps, but the smaller minnows in areas like
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biotech as an example. or data operations area that's, you know, that you tend to focus on the microsofts and the amazons and cloud computing, but we don't talk much about small cap and mid cap tech stocks. i would say if you're looking for a space with a secular tail wind i would say look at small and mid cap bio tech >> david, it's julia here. give us a sense of what your global outlook is. looking long term ten years down the road, how does the u.s. fair compared to china, india, and other markets. >> that is a great question. we just published the report for today that looks at ten-year growth outlooks at the individual companies around the world. the major companies around the world, and understanding that
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forecast and demand is very difficult. but supply is determined by productivity and the impact for the formation and working the populations. when you look at the u.s., the secular growth trend will be reduced by a half to three quarters of a percentage point in the next ten years. so what was a trend rate that may have been two to two and a quarter will be closer to 1.5. there will be other parts in the world offering better secular growth rates, you know if you're talking a look, for example, in the emerging markets you would be surprised to hear some of them are having a difficult time battling covid right now they have pretty good longer term growth prospects. china is up there as well. so those areas that we isolated
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that have very good longer term growth prospects the u.s., and not just because of population, which we know, we went through then years where the corporate america was issuing the capital stock, and that will come at the price of future productivity. >> that is a good place to button it up thank you. >> thank you >> drugmakers from around the world pledging a commitment to safety as they push forward to develop a covid vaccine. what is this pledge really about? >> nine of the leading companies signing on to what they're calling a historic pledge today to put safety first as they rush to the front lines
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they will demonstrate safety and efficacy through phase three studies. they talked about why they felt the need to issue this pledge. here is what he said >> with increasing public concerns, evaluating these vaccines, we saw it is critical to come out and develop our products and our vaccines using the highest standards and the most scientific processes. so here is the backdrop to what they said they're having concerns about coming up in late together there
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is a coolessialescing of the da. and the cdc asked states to be ready. all of this two days before the election on november 3rd the president throwing fire on the argument that there is a politicalization there they say it could be ready before a very special date and this after he put public pressure on in august to suggest they wanted to delay a vaccine until after the election day as well all of this playing in, carl >> it will be a historic period, mega, once we start to get results if it comes that fast. thanks, mega we'll take a quick break here. take a look at some of the laggards on the nasdaq 100
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labor. and the economic losses because of the closing of schools. house democrats are starting an investigation into ak accusations that the postmaster general illegally reimbursed employees for donations to the support of his political party a protest as 600 people gathered outside of the ilngester public safety budi that is the update for this hour, "squawk alley" is back in a minute
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>> they made these kinds of outiou outsized bets using stock options that makes the company look more like a hedge fund than a vc he said that soft bank would start buying tech companies generally recognized widely by many people and he said they would use derivative tra transactions to minimize risk. he also said it was diversif diversificati diversification. it's own mobile subsidiary in jap japan. the scope, this may have surprised investors, this slide from that earnings call earmarked just over half a billion dollars for the fund they spent $4 billion on options tied to $50 worth of individual tech stocks that is far larger than suggested a key question going forward as we see the nasdaq and the tech
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stocks going further is how much they have unwound or hedged those long positions my sources are not saying for now. what i am hearing is that they are likely relying on the trading expertise of his team. and former goldman sachs banker who is now softbanks chief strategy officer despite not knowing the extent of the gains or losses, softbank has sold off this week, wiping out billions in market cap the worry is that what they have done in venture kal capital he y be doing which is betting on the valuations >> joining us today is a former managing partner, now a managing partner, eric, good to see you
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again, how are you >> i was dieing to ask you what your initial thoughts were when the headlines crossed on friday. does it seem out of character or perfectly in character >> well, what was out of character was to start trading in the public sector which has not been part of the strategy. if they decided to trade and it would come naturally that he would do it on a large descale. >> do you think they're over their skis at this point is the market isolating them or -- to the degree they may or may not be setting on fat profits, can this be sustained
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>> we don't know, we'll have to see. there has to be regulatory filings at some point or not, but it could be that for instance these trades were done a few months ago a couple months ago, a few weeks ago. and he might be setting on a lot of profit. if they were done more recently, if it is a downturn in the market he could have big losses. >> what is the matter with little companies, in enterprise or software. maybe they have a great idea there is plenty of those to invest in, probably at decent valuations why would you go to the public markets when you have all of this potential deal flow all of this access to interpr entrepreneurs? >> we're seeing restructuring
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for the portfolio. i think it was noted in your report, he has been selling down assets such as alibaba, soft bank mobile, and other companies to restructure so some of the inflow of billions of dollars that are earmarked for that particular strategy it might have made sense to them to say hey, while we're in this transition phase, let's use that cash and bet on the future of technology in a big way for the public stock market. they could become the berk shsh hath hathaway of the private market that particular plix might be appealing to softbank.
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>> deirdre mentioned that he did start playing in the public markets, how much more do you think you will have to see tr s transparency about what they're doing in the public markets? >> i think it commends on if it will be something that is s opportunistic. some degree of secrecy is necessary. you might be doing harm to yourself at some point in the next few weeks disclosures will have to be made and we'll see if it is more of a long-term plan >> that is true, they might see
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more value as well thanks, good to see you. >> my pleasure >> let's get another check on the market while we go to break. the dow is down nearly 2%, about 540 points the s&p down about 2.25. the nasdaq down more than 3% tonight tune in on cnbc for a special program. "the path forward: race and opportunity in america." i will be hosting with andrew ross sorkin. we will get insights from ceos, investors, and entrepreneurs tonight at 7:00 p.m. herone cnbc we'll be right back.
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>> the trump administration is reportedly being smic on a trade blacklist. that would make it much more difficult for applied materials and more to supply the chinese chip giant more importantly for china this could choke off the efforts to become more self sufficient when it comes to chip technology. a company, smic, planned to more than double it's spending this year in order to try to make higher end chips they have state firms, and the shares managed to recover a little today but they were looked bad yesterday loosing a quarter of their value in hong
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kong for what it sees as the u.s.'s effort to try to label chinese technology as national security risks to other countries so today, the fortune minister had announced a new global -- a set of standards that they said should be global and in an apparent counter move to the u.s. they include eight different points some of them addressing the u.s.'s concerns like not using technology to impair infrastructure or steal data but also others that appear to toe the chinese line which is to respect laws of the host countries. now it wasn't only the government that was addressing these concerns about decoupling. the private sector has been discussing it as well. they are going to create a domestic replacement fund they
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are tieing to supporying to supf these chinese companies from the u.s. sanctions >> thank you, it will be really interesting to watch this story as it progresses >> as we go to break, let's get another check on the f.a.a.n.g. stocks they're all now down i want to point out that over the last three trading sessions apple lost 250 billion in market cap. pretty striking there, guys. nde'e taking a break a wll be right back. stay with us pnc knows business keeps moving. and whether we connect over the phone, online, or face to face, we're here to help- utilizing our resources as one of the nation's largest banks and a local approach with a focus on customized insights.
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the cowboys on sunday night. you're doing a virtual ribbon cutting for the stadium today. before we get to stadium and your big marketing investment in it, we've got to ask you about the market moves today how are you seeing the sell off reflected in the move on your platform >> when they invest, they focus on the long term they do that in a diversified way. not focusing on market timing. we have created a bunch of products this allow our investors, our members to get access to the market according to diversification and long term focus. we provide recurring investment capabilities on single stocks and fractional shares in addition to doing arecurring investments. the market will be volatile and our view is take a long term focus. make sure you're diversified and do not try to market time situation. this volatility is likely to continue for a while
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we think it's better to focus on the long term as opposed to market timing. >> with that out look of expecting more volatility, how does that impact your plans to take sofi public eventually? >> we're not really focused on the company and when we'll go public we're focused on becoming a household brand name we have some phenomenal products that you can use from your mobile device. in this world in which we're working from home, you can access sofi's loan you want to refinance your mortgage at lower rates or home republican vag renovations, we have loans for that you can do your direct deposit in an account. you can spend and pay bills from that account in your mobile phone and do person to person payments as we think about the broad p t portfolio of products we provide, we think it's an
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opportunity to help our members in volatile markets like we're in today but also in volatile times given that tragic situation we have all endured from the pandemic impacting all of us on a global basis. >> anthony, it's been a crazy past six months. i'm wonder more recently where you're seeing your members spend their time and make changes on sofi are you seeing more requests from loan? more investing what's the latest? >> the products are diversified. we'reseeing a really strong growth rate in refinancing homes. we have a mortgage product that meets those members needs. with low interest rates the amount of return you can get on your cash or savings or checkings account is much lower. we see an acceleration in people investing across the broad asset classes i mentioned. we have three products that are definitely benefitting from low
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interest rate environment and high interest rate we have other products that would benefit during the times >> renovations on home a covid trend. anthony, i have to ask you about a stadium. you spent $400 million on 20 years naming rights for that stadium in my hometown here in los angeles. it's weird that the season is kicking off with no fans in the stands no sense of when that will happen when we'll start to see people in the stadium what does that mean for you and your investment in making this the sofi stadium if there's no people there >> we have to look out for the safety and well being of the people whether nfl fans or otherwise. all the leadership of the nfl, rams and chargers are aligned in
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making sure we put the health and welfare of people first and foremost this is a 20-year relationship i couldn't be more excited about the unveiling next sunday night when the rams take on the cowboys. we went in focused on leveraging the great credibility of national football league to make sofi a household name. we have phenomenal products. people have to trust using our products and part of that is becoming a household name. our i investment is important strategy to achieving that we're really excited about next sunday night our thesis behind the stadium was centered around it becoming the most iconic destination for sports and live entertainment. we think that will come to fruition next sunday night while we love to have fans in the stands, they will be on television seeing this great experience that's been built by stan and his team as well as the national football league and their owners e wi we wouldn't be more excited about that and let the world see
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what we know >> we look forward to seeing more we hope you can get fans back in the stands soon. we got a sneak peek and it's pretty impressive. thank you so much for joining us >> thank you, julia. >> we cannot wait for the return of football. jon, a couple of headlines that have crossed in the last few minutes. bloomberg does argue the apple event for the 15th is more about ipads than iphones rou reuters said senate republicans are proposing a bill which democrats have said is going nowhere given the smaller size we'll watch those two dynamics >> make sense that might announce that later. the ipad has been doing well
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during this covid period we mentioned peleton is doing well virgin holdings up almost 10% and roku is up 5%, carl. >> yes, which is few tells in there, roku having a pretty good morning. thanks the judge is back. he's get to the half carl, thanks so much welcome to the halftime report front and center this hour, how bad is it going to get we'll debate the best place for your money today with our investment committee as always we begin at the wall where we always do. nasdaq is in the midst of its worst three day stretch since early march. some headlines in the last few minutes have taken the major aver rajs back lower dow is down about 500. nasdaq is off almost 3%. josh brown, we look at
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