expectations, i think that would be a real surprise. >> very interesting. we await the decision here in about 17 seconds i don't want to squeeze another question in and put under the circumstances over the point there where we go to steve liesman for that, and kelly will take us there in just a moment. >> let's mention the setup we have the dow up 250 points. steve liesman has the decision from the fed. >> federal reserve leaving interest rates unchanged in the september meeting, saying it would maintain an accommodative policy of interest rates until its inflation target is achieved it goes on to say, in answer to the comments by the panel, it would aim for inflation above 2% for some time. that is specifically now in the policy statement as a goal of the federal reserve. it actually makes note of that twice in the statement it was notice aiming for inflation above 2% for some time in order to achieve that average inflation of 2%.

it also says it will purchase additional treasury assets as part of an accommodative policy. it repeat language from previous statements, where it sol it will use the full range of tools to support the economy the statement says weak demand and oil prices are holding down inflation, but the path principally depends on the virus. it says it poses considerable risk to the medium-term outlook. there were two dissets, from the dallas and minneapolis fed, differences in what they wanted. capellan wanted more flexibility. let me tell you about the outlook for gdp. they actually dramatically -- well, they were looking for a 6.5% gdp decline, now looking for a 397% decline

they were looking for nine and change, now looking for 7.6. i'll go directly to the actual table here and put my glasses on, and tell you what it says here inflation they have upgraded from 0.8 to 1 mounta.2 there it is, folks the path of policy 0.1 for 2020, 0.1 for 2021 0.1 for 2022, and -- drumroll, please, 0.1 for 2023 the ample is four years of 0.1% fed funds rate >> steve, have you ever seen the fed by so explicit with respect to inflation saying we are targeting above 2% for a

substantial -- for some time >> i forget the words. >> tyler, you are correct in asking me to underline the importance of this change. no, i've never seen it before. it is an historic moment, where the fed's policy now is aimed at an inflation number that is above target it's not just trying to hit two, it's trying to hit a number above that i think david kelly and others in the market will be disappointed they're aiming for a number above the 2% target in order to achieve average inflation. this is a moment that i didn't think i could see. plus the idea that the policy outlook is for 0.1% into 2023, and i do see four hikes now in the dot plot for 2023, but that means i believe 13 are at

between zero and 0.25. i don't how much more dovish you can get. >> david kellie said he expected them to continue cooing. david, this sounds like coo. >> definitely. it's the right thing to do right now. you're trying to keep long-term rates down you're trying to help the government stimulate the economy and support the economy. the irony is i would be willing to put -- actually keeping rates that low, because when you get to 2023, ifs economy has fully recovered or almost fully recovered, the idea that you're going to be able to keep rates that low with an inflation rate already above 2% i think is unreasonable

you'll see long-temple rates run up in some in some way they're trying to convince the market they're going to be dovish, but when the economy recovers, they'll have to change expectations >> meana, they've had a heart time getting it to where they want it to, and get your reaction whether an above 2% inflation rate is achievable if so, how soon and what are the implications if any for gold we've only got bon 2%. so inflation generally has remained below the core target since the last crisis. as we're going through this crisis, very unlikely we get close to that 2% range

now, keep in mind this lower for longer in an environment where perhaps 2021 with he do get a recovery but globally could prove to be quite strong for riske assets earnings growth thus far, estimates are calling for plus 25%, really investors could be pushed out the spectrum. that's a supportive backdrop gold, as you mentioned really does tend to follow the path of the dollars. think we gold can hold up as well, given what central banks globally are doing

markets are largely holding on to their gains let's go back to steve for more color here steve? >> i want to buttress the conversation that david kelly was having is how much mettle would the federal reserve have when the economy moves toward the goals they set out first of all, if you look at the inflation outlook, the fed actually never forecast that it's going to meet its goal of inflation above 2%, at least not for a single year. the inflation run is 1.2, 1.7, 1.8, so over this four-year time period where the fed says it's aiming above 2%, the actual forecast never actually gets there. david kelly asked this question about what the fed would do as the unemployment rate came down, it does have unemployment at 4%.

this is the forecast, not a policy statement it does have unemployment at 4% at 2023. does the fed hold the line at 0.1% on the funds rate with a 4% unemployment rate? that would certainly by a major, major test of this idea of average inflation targeting here >> steve, i think that's a really interesting point if i could quickly bounce that off our guests david, let me go to you. what steve just said, even with the fed saying their policy is at an inflation enough by above market, it's unclear whether the fed believe it's going to get there. >> i don't think we truly appreciate just how much things have changed over the last year.

now what we're doing is essentially monetizing there's another trillion at a running rate here. regardless of who wins the next election, you could have deficits between $1.5 and $2 trillion over the next two years. if you have that kind of stimulus and the government can do it essential for free, because the federal reserve is lending the money, that is very stimulative. i think people would be surprised at the ability of this fiscal stimulus to actually generate stronger growth and higher inflation >> we have plenty of people

saying it could be absolutely be one outcome here with more on the market's reaction so far. >> so far this week we've had a normal what is called a drip, a tendency to move the couple days to move up it's up about 1.5% that's fairly typical of the fed drip i think several people messaged me they like the modest upgrade to the economies, the estimate, that's a modest upgrade. i think traders like that. always kind of like that we're back down to where we essential started.

no real steepening in the yield curve. overall they pretty much got what they wanted guys, back to you. >> let's also talk about this ipo today, snowflake would you connect it's performance of these software names in year to the liquid in general that were seen people drawing a line from one to the other >> no, i would say the majority of the influence were seeing is because every company in america has to upgrade its software to deal with the fact that the country is moving more online. the companies we're seeing coming, and the ones this week and the next couple weeks, we all address particular niches in the market they help manage them better, do group management better, project

software management better they're all niche players. it's not 120 that matters. people look at 120, everybody thought the open was 245 this has treaded between $232 and $319 people bought at $245 are under water. so watch the $245 number this had better close above $245, or a lot of people will be shaking their heads. if you have an allocation last night at 120, you're an institutional player, and you're at $250, $26 0, you have the option to said in that's a pretty tempting offer. it's traded 28 million shares. that's the float in an hour and a half. that's extraordinary normally it's a good ipo if you trade 100% of the float after a

full day in an hour and a half, it's traded the full float. >> wow, it's a monster bob, thank you so much bob pisani rick santelli is also standing by and yesterday the market remains unimpressed. >> that's because we haven't seen inflation yet i think if we do and when we do, the market will not be as blase as we think. twos, they're a whisker under 14 basis point. >> tens were at 666, and 30-year bonds around -- fixed markets haven't moved. i certainly do want to weigh in on this conventional wisdom that they're advertising something, and oh, my goodness, this is so important, it's never happened before, 2008 to 2015, seven

years, credit crisis, seven years before we normalize rates from zero to 25 to the first rate hike by janet yellen in 2015, because the economy was truly dented how we come out of covid, if there's a vaccine? nobody nose. if the fed could keep this rate at the same rate for three years. that is loss figureser getting smaller and smaller. we don't know how it will end. policy will changes once we get on the other side of covid >> john bellows, let me come back to you. your thoughts on what this fed just said basically. it would seem you don't bet against the fed and the fed is

saying would have been your back >> i'm saying this with nervousness. i think the reason the fed did it today was precisely to tell you what the policy will be. i think the -- they did not wait for the all clear. instead they're telling you now what the policy will be at covid. the reason it will be easy, they need to address this unevenness. they have a broad and inclusive -- i think the -- i think the fed brought forward their announcement again, i take the other side with trip days

>> mona, sum it up for us. >> i think this is a case of adopt fight the fed. we have low rates at least will be 2021 until we go ahead a tried and true recovery. in that backdrop, the effect comes front and center. >> even gold as we mentioned everlyier, keep in mind we do have periods of volatility but those are walls of worry, so i'll leave it at that. >> david will still around for final thoughts it was not you said, we love you, so come back next time.

we'll see you. >> we're about 13 minutes away from the press conference. we will talk to a former fed governor about t bheig problem he thinking the fed faces right now.

. welcome back the fed just left rates unchanged, and indicated rate hikes won't be an issue until 2024 the dow is up 288 points, s&p is

up 21, even the nasdaq has turned positive. let's talk about this all with frederick mishkin. great to have you back can you hear me all right? >> i can hear you just fine. we had two dissentence today, one from capellan, the other from neil kashda are cashcari. >> it tells you there's disagreement, they're not absolutely clear on whether they're going, in a sense there has been a shift i very much welcome. it's something i've advocated, and i think they're trying to sort out what that means

this is an indicateth haven't quite sorted it out. >> here's the key, one of the big problems you have and of a need for more extensive policy, they've already got the fed race down and basically it's called effective lower value. so the question is how do you make sure you want to be stimulative. one way to do it is indicate when you've inflates lower for a short period of time, up to shoot above that. you want it to be arches, and that is key. what it means is when you have

things -- you old way the doing things is bygones are bygones, whatever has happened in the past you don't worry and keep interest rates low. >> and make we can show this -- but rick, if that's all the case, why doesn't it think it actually can't they don't believe themselves they'd get we used to think, and the theory tells us if you create expectations, that you're going to do more, it will help, but in fact it's very interesting when you look at the case in japan, they have changed their policy in major ways, starting in 2012, with

abe-anomics. that's a challenge for the fed the issue is you have to do what you've got to do, you do the best you can, but if you notice, many officials have been talking about the government needs to do something. in a situation like this, the monetary policy will not be's effective. we're at this lower bound is this is when you need fiscal policy to kick in im. >> so where does that leave us then do you believe that their quantitative easing is causing distortions in the economy, or that it's not making its way into the real economy? or do you just think it needs to take more time to play out

>> i think it does work, but the problem is, for example, it's very effective in affecting financial markets. the stock market is much stronger than it otherwise would be because of those actions. in fact the stock markets near the highs before the coronavirus, that's actually important. the problem is that doesn't mean it has enough effect on the real economy. this is the difficulty that central banks -- they're not all powerful they can affect assets prices, but the question is, is that enough to actually get the economy moving we saw this happen during the financial crisis the fed did a lot of things that were very, very positive, but in fact we had a very, very slow recovery what the fed can do that's really important is it can prevent a financial crisis that's exactly what they did that was hugely important. great that they did it, great they did it as quickly as they

did once you do that everybody basically your power is limited. you have to recognize you may need more. >> frederick, thank you for your time we appreciate it. >> my pleasure. former governor of the federal reserve. in a few moments, we will head over to jay powell he will begin his news conference at roughly half past the hour he'll explain his decision to leave interest rates unchanged and target inflation slightly above the 2% number that they've talked about for years we will take you to that press rsch it would be virtual, right after this short break and etfsde stocks

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we'll spend a couple minutes more with david kelly, as we wait for fed chair powell. one of the interesting points is they could be effective in boosting asset prices. higher asset prices help people who have assets. it doesn't do much, right, david, for people who don't have assets that leaves fiscal policy as the way to reach them. am i incorrect or correct about that >> you're absolutely correct, and i think we're turning a

page after the election, particularly if we have a republican sweet or democratic sweep, i expect fiscal policy to go all-out expansionary we have a temporary block on stimulus because of politician right now. that can help the average person and help the economy overall i think you will see that. the real problem for the federal reserve is to what extent they want to enable that forever. there is no limit to what washington will ultimately spent if the federal reserve won't act as a block if they plan to keep rates low forever, we'll get bigger and bigger deficits i think the other interesting things is they haven't committed to qe for that long you could see a taper on bond purchases before they raise short-term rates if they do that, there's some

interesting implications in that, but overall i think we'll see a lot of fiscal over the next few years financed by a very dovish fed. exactly. >> the fed is financing the borrowing that the federal government is doing, correct it's really one pocket subsid e subsidizing the other pocket, i suppose. >> it's a dangerous game it's darn close to what you caught debt monetization, where the federal government basically runs the federal reserve sorry to jump in chair powell is taking the podium here he is deliver the press conference >> the federal reserve, we are strongly committed to achieving the monetary policy goals that congress has given us -- max mustnmu employment and price stability since the pandemic we have taken forceful actions to provide relief in stability, to ensure the recovery will be as strong as possible, and to limit lasting damage to the economy.

today my colleagues on the federal open market committee and i made some important change to our policy statement, including an update to our guidance for the likely path of our policy interest rate guided by our new statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy we announced a few weeks ago, these changes clarify our strong commitment over a longer time horizon before describing today's policy actions, let me briefly review recent economic developments economic activity has picked up from its depressed second quarter level, when much of the economy was shut down to stem the spread of the virus. with the reopening of many businesses and factories and fewer people withdrawing from social interactions, household spending looks to have recovered about three quarters of its earlier decline. nonetheless, spending on services that typically require people to gather closely, including travel and hospitality

is still quite weak. the recoveries in household spending also likely owes to federal stimulus payments an expanded unemployment benefits, which provided substantial and timely support to household incomes. activity in the housing sector has returned to its level at the beginning of the year, and we are starting to see signs of an improvement in business investment the recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected and forecast from fomc participants this year have been revised up since our june rumry projections. even so, overall activity remains well below its level before the pandemic and the path ahead remains highly uncertain in the labor market roughly half of the jobs lost in march and april have regained, as many people return to work. the unemployment rate declined, but remains elevated at 8.4% as

of august. though we welcome this progress, we will not lose sight of the millions who remain out of work. looking ahead, fomc project the the median projection is 7.6 at the end of this year, 5.5% next year and 4% by 2023. the economic downturn has not fallen equally on all americans, and those least able to shoulder the burden have been hardest hit. in particular the high level of joblessness has been especially severe for lower wage workers in the service sector, for women, and for african-american and for hispanics. this has created great uncertainty about the future it's also left a significant imprint on inflation for some goods, include food,

supply conrestaurants have led to notably higher prices, adding to the burden of those struggling with lost income. more broadly, however, weaker demand especially in sectors has held down consumer prices. overall inflation is running well below our 2% longer-run objective. the median inflation projection rises from 1.2% this year to 1.7% next year, and reaches 2% in 2023. as the economy began its recovery, covid cases hospitalizations and deaths also rose the rexwupimposition of social distance procedures have succeeded in slowing the sled of the virus. as we have emphasized the outlook for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on success in keeping the virus in

check. all of us have a role to play. following the advice of public health professionals to keep appropriate social distances and to wear masks in public will help get the economy back to full strength. a full economic recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a brought range of activities the path forward will also depend on the policy actions taken across all parts of the government to proceed relief. the federal reserve's responsibilitiresponse to this crisis has been -- along with our responsibilities to promote the stability of the financial system we remain committed to using our full range of tools in this challenging time the change we made in today's policy statement reflect our strategy to achieve our -- by seeking to eliminate shortfalls

and achieve inflation that averaging 2% over time, as we articulated in our statement on longer run goals we view maximum employment as a broad-based and inclusive goal unless acompanied be signs of unwanted increases in inflation or emergence of other risks. and we believe that achieving inflation helps ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored as the longer-run 2% objective. in turn, it enhances or ability to meet -- particularly in the new normal in which interest rates are closer to the lower bound, even in good times.

for some time, so that inflay averaging 2% over time and remain well avg off arored at 2% >> with regard to interest rates, we now indicate that we expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current zero to 0.25% rate until later market conditions have reached levels consistent with the assessment of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time. in addition, over the coming months, we will continue to increase our holdings of treasury security, and at least at the current pace. these asset purchases are intended to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative conditions

we believe it would serve the economy's goals. of course, as we note in our policy statement, we would be prepared to adjust the stance as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the achievement of our goals. the federal reserve has also been taking brought and forceful actions. many of our programs requires lending powers that require the support of treasury department and available only in very unusual circumstances, such as those we find ourselves in today. they serve as a backstop to key credit markets and appear to have restored the flow of credit through normal channels.

we have employed these to an unprecedented extent when the time comes, after the crisis has passed, we will put these emergency tools back in the toolbox. as i have emphasized before, these are lending powers, not spending powers. the fed cannot grant money to particular beneficiaries we can only create programs or facilities with broadbased el scribble eligibility. for many others, getting a loan that may be difficult to repay may not be the answer. in these cases, direct fiscal support may be needed. elected officials have the power to tax and spend and make decision on where to direct our collective resources the fiscal policies have made a critical difference to families,

businesses and communities across the country even so, the current economic downturn is the most severe in our lifetimes, it will take a while to get back to the levels of economic activity and employment that prevailed at the beginning of this year, and may take continued support from monetary and fiscal policy to achieve that we understand that our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country. everything we do is in service to our public mission. we are committed to using our fun range of tools to support the economy and help assure the recoveries from this different period will be as robust as possible finally, i would like to take a moment to recognize the passing of our friend and colleague thomas laubach his advice has been indispensable and played a key role that will define this era

he will be remembered for his intellect, but also his kindness we will miss him thank you. i'll now be glad to take your questions. thank you, nick timeros? >> good afternoon, chair powell. you've got very clear about the committee's intentions on rates, not even thinking about raising rates. and low rates as to 2% my question is about -- does the guidance today apply to the current -- are there any make roe economic that you would -- and mvs purchases, and under what conditions would a decrease be appropriate thank you.

to help foster acdadive conditions, that is already -- what i've been say, and what other central banks have acknowledged. i would just say this, there are various ways and margins, and we'll continue to adjust to

our plans as appropriate >> if i could follow up, i suppose the question but not give guidance when the fed has talked about with the two policy tools working together today we believe effectively we're saying that race will remain highly accommodate iive t would be an -- now we're buying 120 billion in securities per month we do have the flexibility to adjust that tool and the rate tool and other tools as well,

but we think that our policy setting is appropriate to provide some support, stability and relief, and then he would and it's well along we do have the flexibility to do more when we think it's appropriate. thank you, gina? >> you beefed up the language that you unveiled with the jackson hole speech last month would financial stability

concerns on their own be enough to merit -- or would they have to come in conjunction with an overheating inflation or some sort of dramatic drop in the unemployment rate? >> the long-goal strategy -- the assessment of balance of risks so that's what we want did stability, and we want we would be prepared to adjust the stance, if risks emerge that could bee -- but you asked specifically about financial stability. one thing i would say is financial -- that the monetary policy should not be the first line of defense, is not the first line of defense of financial stability.

we look to more appropriate tools, and those would be regulation, supervision, high capital, high liquidity, stress testing all of those things, all of those things are really the first line of defense. we always leave open we will not ignore those kinds of risks and other risks more broadly so that's really how we think about it principally other tools are the front line, as you mentioned. >> reporter: just to follow up quickly, if other tools aren't forthcoming, would concerns in and of itself be enough for a rate hike? >> what we want in the longer run in our consensus statement

that could impede the goal, the test would be does the majority of the committee feel that monetary policy is triggers that that would be the test you know, it's not something we have done. we do monitor financial stability concerns, of course, intense lip and regularly. we do keep them in mind. thank you, steve liesman. >> reporter: mr. chair, i want to understand how the projections of the committee line up with the goals of the committee. you have now al the projections to statement, but when i look in

the next four years that you are ever above 2%. in fact each year you're below it so are you confident -- is it that the committee is not confident, that not only can it not hit its 2% goal, but can't hit i goals of being above 2%? >> not at all. you also don't see people raising interest rates so we don't reach 2%, but we get very close to it we reach 2%. it will be set and be propose until such time we reach 2% inflation. and that we are on track to

achieve moderate inflation moderately above i don't think there's any conflict between the two, because the way they're set up, the projections don't show the out years. you asked about confidence i would say this very strong, powerful guidance shows both our confidence and our determination. it shows our confidence that we can reach this goal and our determination to do so >> reporter: if the committee was -- why wouldn't one of those years at least show inflation being above 2% >> because we think looking at everything we know about inflation dynamics in the united states and around the world over recent decades, we expect it will take some time. we expect the economy will recover quickly now, but that pace will slow, as people go back to work and we'll still

have a big area of the economy that struggles there would be slack in the economy, the economy will be below maximum employment, and that will tend to wear, to put downward pressure on inflation we think once we get up closer to closer to maximum employment, we think inflation will come back generally. that's sort of what happened during the last long expansion it's a slow process but there's a process. the inflation does move up over time we expect that will continue today. we expect our guidance is powerful and will help that outcome. we think that effectively staying policy will remain accommodative until the economy is very long in its recovery should provide strong support for the economy and get us there sooner rather than later. >> thank you. >> rachel seagal. >> hi, chair powell. thanks very much for taking my

question i wanted to ask if you anticipate a slowing in the pace of the recovery if there's not another stimulus package and specifically if there are still holes remaining in the economy that you think could be helped by more aid from congress thanks very much. >> sure. so first if you look at the summary of economic projections that my colleagues and i filed for this meeting, what you'll see is an expectation that the recovery will continue, that it will continue at a reasonable pace through 2021, '22, and '23. we do expect that pace will slow just because you would expect that the pace would be fastest right at the beginning of the recovery because you had such a sharp decline. you would expect the third quarter should be the fastest gains. after that the pace should slow down to a more normal pace so we do expect that in terms of fiscal policy. you asked about fiscal policy. so you know, one thing, i guess

i would start by saying the initial response from fiscal authorities was rapid, it was forceful, and pretty effective we're seeing the results of that in income and household spending data, labor market data, construction data, data for business equipment spending and the fact that businesses are staying in business and the pace of defaults and things like that have slowed. there's been a really positive effect that said, my sense is that more fiscal support is likely to be needed the details are for congress not the fed. i would say there are still roughly 11 million people still out of work due to the pandemic and a good part of those people were working in industries likely to struggle those people may need additional support as they try to find their way through what will be a difficult time for them. also got struggling small businesses, especially those in the business of facing directly

to the public, and we have state and local governments dealing with a drop in revenue at the same time spending has gone up much of it related to the pandemic and economic effects. so again i would say the fiscal support has been essential in the good progress we see now finally i'll note that just about all -- the overwhelming majority of private forecasters who project an ongoing recovery are assuming there will be a substantial additional fiscal suppo support. >> thank you mike derby. >> taking the question should we expect further evolution in forward guidance, say an adoption of kennedy evans rule we had a few years ago or is there something else the fed might be considering in the future >> well, so we think that the forward guidance we adopted

today is appropriate and, as i mentioned, powerful. effectively what it says is we will keep policy where it is now, keep the rate policy where it is now until employment reaches the committee's assessments or levels -- sorry, not unemployment, labor market conditions reach levels consistent with the committee's assessment of maximum employment until inflation reaches 2% and on track to go above 2% moderately for some time so that's very strong forward guidance we think that will be durable guidance that will provide significant support to the economy in coming years. that's really our thinking on forward guidance on rates. >> thank you howard snyder. >> thanks chair powell for doing this a follow-up on mike's question

there, since you describe this guidance as durable, you set up a three-part test for rate hikes, levels consistent with maximum employment, inflation has risen to 2% and exceed 2% for some time. each of these have modifiers i wonder if you will explain them a little more how do we pin down assessments of maximum employment. when you say inflation has risen to 2%, does that mean 2% for a day? six months when you say on track to moderately succeed, how should we define moderately and how should we define for some time >> so as you know, maximum employment is not something that can be reduced to a number the way inflation can. it's a broad range of factors. it always has been substantial number of factors we indicated we would look at it's broader labor conditions

consistent with our committee's assessment of maximum employment that would certainly mean low unemployment, high labor force, wages, a whole range of things we're not looking at a rule, we're looking at a judgmental assessment, which i think we'll be very transparent about as we go forward in terms of inflation, you know, this is a committee that is both confident and committed and determined to reach our goals. the idea we would look for the quickest way out is not who we are. there's no message of that here. we would not be looking for one month of 2% inflation. we said to achieve 2% inflation. just understand we're strongly committed to achieving our goals and the overshoot. so that should tell you about that

>> in terms of what does moderate mean? it means not large not very high above 2% it's moderate. that's a fairly understood word. in terms of for a time, what it means is not permanently and not for a sustained period we're resisting the urge to try to create some sort of a rule or aformula here, and i think the public will understand pretty well what we want. it's actually pretty straightforward. we want to achieve inflation that averages 2% over time if we do that inflation expectations will be right at 2% and that will help us with 2% inflation over time and avoid the situation where the central bank loses its ability for the economy. >> james. >> thank you for taking the question from the "financial times. do you consider today's enhanced

forward guidance to actual accommodation to the economy from a monetary perspective and sort of delivered further support, the economy, or a tweak to existing pop policy stance? in terms of fiscal support, do you assume in your own projections, not just private, that additional fiscal support will be forthcoming, or do you expect a weaker growth or larger contraction rather this year if no fiscal support is forthcoming? >> in terms of the effects, i think what we've done is more or less aligned with the consensus statement today. so it's in line with what might be expected. as i mentioned, i think over time it will provide very

powerful support for this economy aswe move forward. in a sense it's consistent with expectations, so i'm not looking for a big reaction right now but i think over time, again, guidance that we expect to retain the current stance until the economy has moved very far toward our goals is a strong and powerful thing i think that will be supportive of the economy over time in terms of additional fiscal support, i guess your question is what would happen so people have different assessments and different fmoc made assessments on their own. i think broadly, though, there is an expectation among private forecasters and fomc participants that there will be some further fiscal action and there does seem to be an appetite with all the relevant players to do something. the question is how much and

when it's very hard to say. so far the economy has proven resilient to the lapsing of the c.a.r.e.s. act unemployment -- enhanced unemployment benefits there's certainly a risk, though, that those who are unemployed have saved -- appear to have saved some of those benefits, and they will now spend them as the months pass, if there's no follow-up on that, if there isn't additional support and there isn't a job for some of those people from industries where it's going to be very hard to find new work, then that will start to show up in economic activity it will also show up in things like evictions and foreclosures and, you know, things that will scar and damage the economy. that's a downside risk so i think the real question is when and how much and what will be the contents. no one