regionals doing relatively well. big banks down a bit the initial take only ten minutes after this news came out, not as bad as it could have been >> certainly not as bad. you know, i do think the big question is are the regulars going to be very conservative about waiting to see what the wear and tear is on balance sheets "fast money" starts now. i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. tonight's trader line-up guy adami, tim seymour, karen finerman and dan nathan. the major warning for one market watcher. why he is calling for a 20% pullback in big tech plus ford giving details on its electric pickup. and later airline ceos back at the white house today looking for more money we found 67 billion reasons why that might not fly we begin tonight with breaking

news on the banks. >> we were discussing on closing bell the banks finding out this evening what this extra stress tests they'll go through this fall will be there will be two severe recessions it will be tested against as opposed to normally one. it's possible we could interpret those severe recessions as not as bad as they could have been june saw unemployment spiking to 10%. this test has two versions one is that it spikes to 12.5% and then dips more quickly to $7 7.5% both of those factors perhaps highlight the severely adverse scenario didn't get that much worse given the year that we're in than perhaps it could have got.

10% unemployment to 11 or 12 is not that much worse. that will also include a stock market decline by 30 % house prices falling 26% all of course headline-grabbing changes but not that much worse than they could have been given the fact that we already knew this early set of tests was coming there is one line that stands out at the end of the statement that says, the board required banks to take several actions to preserve their capital levels, which we know meant they had to suspend buybacks the final statement says the board will announce whether those measures to preserve capital will be extended into the fourth quarter i would say the street's expectation is they will be extended into the fourth quarter. that might well still be the case but i guess just a tiny glimmer of hope that buybacks will be allowed if not in the fourth

quarter, perhaps again early next year, which will be a big boost when that's allowed again for this sector. >> will, thank you karen finerman, what is your take on all of this? the other piece of this is that they passed with flying colors back in june you wonder whether or not they're going to pass under this second wave scenario that's effectively what this is. it's modeling a second wave of coronavirus to hit the economy with ensuing spikes in unemployment as well as declines in gdp >> right they have reserved well, well, well in excess of the actual loan losses they've actually seen so far. i think they'll fare pretty well i have a feeling when they weren't allowed to do buybacks and there was some constraints on what kind of dividend they'd pay, it seemed to me like that could persist for the rest of the year i don't think that would be a big deal i think for somebody like wells

fargo who already had to cut their dividend, i think they'll be able to probably continue their dividend you can't own these stocks just for one-quarter's dividends. really the whole question in the valuation of these stocks is how are the reserves going to compare with the actual loan losses that they have. so i think they've reserved a lot and will continue to reserve a lot and i think they will weather the storm and then investors will start to look at a more normalized earnings than what we have now even in the situation that we have now with the giant reserve, these banks are still making money. i'm on jp morgan and bank of america and i started adding wells fargo around the stress test and i'm long citi, which lately hasn't been great i wonder if citi will face some additional restraints. but i think that they will be fine. >> dan, what's your answer to karen's big question, whether or not the banks have reserve

enough >> you know, it's funny. karen and i offline, we actually talk we had a long conversation about the banks yesterday. i agree with a lot of what she said t if you're trying to bridge in gap buyi sector that might benefit from the economy doing much better as we get closer to a varccine, if you listen to wht fed chair powell said about interest rates, it's not great for the banking sector if you look at some of the housing data, it seems near peak we've seen the refis because the rates are lower. you put all that together and it doesn't make for a great near term picture for the bank. this is one group that if we get close to a vaccine on the other side of this year and unemployment starts heading back down to mid single digits,

investors are going to pile into this group you have to be prepared for the price action you saw in citigroup this week. there are some tape bombs to come out for them in the near term. >> say the banks pass the stress test is that the seal of approval there are very few industries out there that the federal reserve will stress test various economic scenarios there we have it being handed to you on a silver platter. >> you're talking to it through the prism of the stocks go higher i think the short answer is probably no. it's interesting passed with flying colors, that speaks to a bygone era when victorious ships would go past the port with their flags flying i looked it up i don't think that's the catalyst to buy these banks. the catalyst is that a name like

citi is trading 63% of tangible book that's the levels we saw probably in 2018 a08 and 2009. if by some more. >> caller: i think the banks will rally doesn't mean the banks are in great shape. it just means they're at an inflection point where any little bit of great news, i think they go higher. >> tim >> i think that the pirate's flag has been flown by citibank. it's a 4.5% dividend yield for a company that arguably has had the most lax risk controls and that's what it's getting brought up on and that's essentially the perceived punishment for all the people who love to hate the banks, i know it's not been a straight line but the down trend over the last couple of days is still holding the up trend that's all the way from those march lows

banks have been slowly grinding higher i know it doesn't feel like it karen talked about loan loss provisions jp morgan's numbers last quarter were fantastic i do think what has been said about where banks are positioned, they are positioned on the other side. i don't know that we need to get to the other side to make them an investment you can't have today. >> i get the point about grinding higher, but there is an opportunity cost to holding banks. you miss out because the capital is in banks and note in an amazon or microsoft or facebook, karen, some of which you do hold there's a tradeoff here. your time frame has to be much longer for this to actually play out. does it keep getting longer by the day, or do you think that time frame is shortening

>> it's both been long and every day we get closer to a vaccine or some version of a new normal, that's good. i think that to own only the sort of maga or whatever else is included in there these days,i think that's a riskier portfolio. i like the banks, but i feel like the risk/reward in terms of the price to future earnings and the price to book, particularly for citi and bank of america, a little more for jp morgan but it's worth it, when that value trade happens, i don't know when that is, i will be very happy having a meaningful jump in my portfolio in these names. >> liking the banks, though, tim, is a very different proposition and believing the banks will be able to weather more credit losses in the future is a very different proposition

than saying i like banks in general. we're talking about banks that have lots of reserves, right for investors thinking, oh well, maybe this is the all clear here and financials can weather this next wave, if there is a wave, that's not necessarily the truth for all of the financials across the board? >> i agree stress tests really have not been a catalyst to banks this is part of living in a world where banks albeit have much less regulatory pressure on them than they did in the previous administration. one of the things the fed -- for people that are looking for the yield curve to be somewhat of a catalyst for banks, i think what you're hearing out of the fed

ultimately is that the short end is pinned. while we have seen rates on the longer end stay certainly in this range, if anything the messaging is that the yield curve is going to get somewhat steeper. it ee it's all relative. you're right, to this point it's been a terrible trade to be long banks against not even short but not to have been invested in amazon, apple, netflix, nvidia but it's about tomorrow and where we are in that trade relative to all the bad news you've endured relative to banks. if their balance sheets are okay, i'm not sure why you wouldn't want to be in that trade tomorrow >> the nasdaq falling for a second straight day. check out some of these big losses apple down more than 20% from its all-time high just two weeks ago. facebook, tesla, amazon, microsoft also down double digits does trouble in tech land mean more pain for the broader

markets? >> it's a tough setup here, right? in the end of the summer august was this melt up in technology shares, up more than 10% in the nasdaq we're sitting here every day trying to explain it and there was no explanation it was just a panic buy there. turn the calendar, it's september. wake me up when september ends, because this thing is not done going down if you look at apple in particular, it's down 20%. that was a massive blow off top from july 31st when they reported their fiscal earnings that stock had gained $650 billion in market cap and investors are selling the crap out of it because they didn't get a 5g phone that no one thought was going to come in september anyway it was really frothy i would not be surprised to see apple before their 5g announcement trade back to 95 where it was trading prior to

earnings there's a lot of really bad charts there's two levels that are really important, braeaking tha up trend from march lows, they've all done it. and getting back to that breakout level, i think we're going to see that next from a lot of these big names. >> let's say apple does go back to 95 before the next phone is launched, does that mean apple will recoup and go back to those highs? >> probably. that's historically exactly what's happened. dan can wax poetic about this like no one else but if you go back over the last five to six years and you've seen meaningful peak to trough declines in apple. if you're going to get down to that 95 level that gets us 20% to the downside. we've seen it before yes, i do think it's a huge buying opportunity i think it's going to gets there

and in six months from now we'll be talking about remember that opportunity we had in apple. you go back to the summer, 245 is where it broke down from and 245 will be support now. this stock is 253, i think the one that really defies logic is qualcomm which was actually higher today and is just off the recent highs that we've seen take a look at qualcomm. maybe that's indicative of the underlying strength in that name. >> the belief that these tec stocks would check back to their recent lows and bounce back would imply that a rotation is not a permanent thing, that this rotation is a blip on the radar screen and there will be a return to growth. >> that's a good point, although all stocks could go up that could happen. but today was sort of no man's

land in terms of the selloff i would like to buy some more facebook it's getting close i'd like to see more panic the vix closed actually on its lows about 26 and change i would have thought on a day like today we would see the vix high higher so we didn't and i would like to see it a little more panicky so i could buy some more of these i do believe they will ultimately go past the recent highs. when i don't know but i think given this market, given where rates are, given what the fed is telling you and i do think after the election we will have a stimulus i think there is a floor there under this market. i will buy more. >> our next guest says a major

tech crash is coming joining us larry mcdonald. 20% down what's the catalyst for it >> first of all, the fed tipped their hand and really shocked assets all they thohad to do is say the balance sheet is on cruise control for 12 months. that's all they had to do. why didn't they do it? they didn't do it because they're trying to send a signal to washington. >> okay. so that was the catalyst we're already seeing the 20% decline in motion is what you're saying. >> in other words, when you're long stocks today, brexit and trade wars and covid, so the entire investment community is set up essentially in deflation

be bets as of a week ago $10 trillion in tech stocks which is mainly deflation debt now the fed could have promised us more accommodations they're not, so they're concerned about washington and potentially they would like to see more fiscal help and concern about potentially a vaccine. so the fact that they're not offering, guaranteeing accommodations, the richness in these tech stocks are absolutely going to collapse. we are going to see in our lifetimes, in our careers, what will be the greatest migration of assets the the next 12 months from tech into not just value and materials. look at transports transports are outperforming the nasdaq by 12% this month materials are outperforming the nasdaq by 11

>> how are you positioned? you're short qqqs, i imagine, and long what, anything in the market if it's the greatest migration of value in this market, where is it migratining to >> we love tech resources and mosaics. you have too many people in these deflation bets for example, tech resources, incredible cheap company not one etf owns tech resources. these stocks are underowned. investors around the united states have too much money in tech, too much money in bonds and that money will migrate very, very fast over the next six months. >> larry, good to speak with you. thank you. tim, what do you think

>> movement of the people, as guy said i think this is a case where the resources trade, i continue to be very bullish on i do think there's both a long-term cycle element of this. you remember commodity cycles aren't one and two years they're five and ten years and we're back there some of these charts are just getting going, in my view. my view on technology is there will be a 20% bullbacpullback if you look at the june 29 levels a bunch of these stocks went off into la la land i don't think that necessarily has to take the market out of bed. frankly with the fed backup that we have, i don't think you'll get that i think that will continue. >> coming up, the latest on tiktok from terms of a deal to possible changes at the top. we have all the details and what

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we are following new developments on tiktok a deal announcement could be coming within hours. julia boorstin has the latest. >> we are expecting an announcement in the next day or so on the approval of a new entity that i'm told will be called tiktok global getting some new details from a source close to the situation. while this proposal is expected to be approved and how it makes this new tiktok global majority owns in the u.s. bytedance is 40% owned by u.s.

investors. it's 51% owned by chinese nationals. a new tiktok global would mirror those ownership stakes, bytedance selling about 10% to oracle would make the company u.s. majority owned. the sale of an additional stake to walmart would further increase u.s. ownership over that 50% mark. multiple sources telling me that tiktok global plans to file for an ipo in about a year that would again further dilute chinese ownership. the board would be subject to u.s. government approvals. and the ceo and c suite would be american this comes as the company is, of course, looking for a permanent ceo to replace kevin mayer

we are awaiting word from the president on this. the deadline he set on the deal is this coming sunday. the fact that over 50% of corporate ownership would be u.s. based seems very much key to approval of this deal >> julia, thank you. karen, i wonder what your take is the notion that kevin sistrom would be the head of this new entity tiktok global might be even more of a challenge to a facebook. >> yeah. it's an interesting little side, i guess i don't know what you would call it. it could be more of a challenge, that's right i was sort of thinking that what the deal was going to be -- i'm not even clear what it is. i don't know if anyone is clear what it is i don't know what to make of

that i think that, to me, with the skin in the game that i guess i have is walmart, which is interesting. i don't understand what they're paying we don't really know that. but i do think this is an opportunity for walmart to continue their evolution to take on amazon and i think compete with amazon. >> dan, what's your take >> i think karen kind of nailed it it really is about price for oracle and walmart we have no idea. no one's even talked about any of that. as far as the concern of our government, i didn't really think ownership was the big issue. i thought it was really about the data and where that data was going and how it's protected to me, this story keeps changing i would not be surprised that if we have some sort of announcement like this, the investors in the u.s. are happy, oracle is happy to get a cloud contract, walmart is happy to invest in this sort of thing and in 2021 we're talking about

another totally different thing. bytedance can continue to grow the value of this asset and they have some important u.s. partners to me, it sounds like a great deal for bytedance. >> guy >> it's interesting. kevin systrom i think was on the walmart board for about five years. it's really interesting stuff going on here. i think on the margins this is encouraging for walmart. dan and i went back and forth for oracle i think tim, karen and dan would agree that walmart is getting the revaluation that tim's been talking about. >> a lot of cooks in this mix now, tim, to mix my metaphors. we don't know what walmart is going to get out of this, so

should we impute the same value add to walmart as we did before when we thought it was microsoft and walmart? >> no. i think walmart shareholders are already back to square zero. i think the technology transfer that walmart has proven has been effective for them and other acquisitions, that is something i think they're getting. back to tiktok global, i don't even know what that is especially when we've struggled to understand who controls the algorithm, that's still in question >> we're just getting started here on "fast money. here's what's coming up next. >> airline execs descending on the white house today looking for more aid from the government just what does the industry hope to save as a result? we'll dive into the numbers. plus, oil prices jumping for e cotrght day. what the options market is saying about the sector and the

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welcome back to "fast money. airline stocks falling again today as industry execs met at the white house looking for more aid. phil lebeau has the details. >> we all know the story by now. the airlines within two weeks will begin laying off thousands of workers unless there is an extension of the cares act, another $25 billion. that is what they went to the white house today saying, look, the democrats and republicans all generally agree there should be another aid package for us. how do we make this happen by october 1st? that's the key it's got to happen by october 1st. here's where the talks stand right now. the payroll support plan they

are asking for, another $25 billion, that would extend payroll support for thousands of workers through march, really for all of the airline workers it does have bipartisan support but it needs a legislative bill. the white house has said maybe there's a smaller amount we could put it to. the democrats may not care for that again, it comes down to whether democrats and republicans can get together on this if you take a look at shares of america and united, they're planning on furloughing more than 30,000 workers. what about southwest and delta both of them believe they can get past october 1st and not have any furloughs but remember, they've had a number of their employees who have taken unpaid leaves of absence. that eases the payroll pressure there. when you take a look at delta, remember that earlier today the airline said it is up sizing the capital raise it announced earlier this week tried into its

frequent flyer program monday they said we're going to leverage this program for $6.5 billion. today they up sized it they will be borrowing $9 billion. >> how much have the airlines raised and how much have they gotten from the government it strikes me they've done a lot of capital raising b they choose not to tap the $25 billion loan program because they don't want loan, they want a grant. >> correct if they get another grant from the government to cover payroll, they would love that if the government says you can borrow billions more in order to pay these employees who you're not going to be using because you are going to become a smaller airline. they're all smaller now and they will remain smaller. the airlines don't want that why? they have borrowed this year $67

billion. almost all of that coming since the covid-19 pandemic set in the vast majority of that money being borrowed is through the private market the largest borrowers, delta when you add in the 9 billion, it's up to 228.5 billion the bottom line is this, melissa. these guys have to get back to break even they're all burning through anywhere between 20 and $27 million a day depending on the airline and what part of the third quarter you're looking at. they're all targeting getting back to zero by the end of this year the question is whether that happens or do you look out into the first quarter or the second quarter. >> what have the trends been through labor day? have they improved >> they're still down 65-75%

september and october are not terribly strong months for air travel you're not expecting anything great. then you get into thanksgiving and the holidays, if there's a covid-19 resurgence, that means you may not get as many people flying for the holidays as you're anticipating. >> these airlines have gone through bankruptcy numerous times, is that correct >> yes. >> do you think that the government kmilt commitment to n the airlines afloat is so strong that bankruptcy this time is off the table? >> i don't think bankruptcy is ever completely off the table but there is going to come a point when you have to wonder how much more the airlines can borrow some airlines have been much more aggressive about borrowing. when you start getting to debt levels of $40 billion, how much are you paying just to service that debt and you were not

terribly profitable in the past. you were profitable but you were not ringing the cash registers to the point where 40 blt$40 bi in debt is a slam dunk >> tim, if you're a shareholder in any of these airlines, should you be concerned that your equity could be wiped out at some point >> in some of them i think at american, for examplexampl example. i think in delta, no some of this is a function of factors we don't know and are not controllable but do i think we've already priced in a lot of pain. i think the fourth quarter cash burn could be worse than the third quarter. change fees are largely being wiped out. there's a major area of margin the story may still have fundamentally changed even when we get a vaccine look at the charts on the airlines and look at where they are over the last six weeks. these are rock solid steady charts you can make an argument that value investors are picking

over some of this is a function of where the rest of the market was. but there's no question that the biggest and the best capitalize are very secure through 2021 that's the story and that's something i think you can invest in, albeit at a different multiple than before. >> karen >> well, i sort of think about live by the sword, die by the sword. there is equity there. they could issue equity. they don't want to i understand that. i think about gm and the financial crisis, they didn't want to shut down. they wanted to preserve jobs and the government bailed them out, but the government took a giant equity position. i don't know why that's off the table here i feel like it should be i don't want people to lose their jobs, but i think they've operated in the free market. this was through no fault of their own they find themselves

in an awful situation. but to have the government bail them out and not have be getting paid for it, i don't understand why it should be that way. >> especially when there are so many other industries that have had so much pain inflected on them because of this man made shutdown to begin with, restaurants, retailers, hotels why the airlines at this point after they've been given $25 billion? >> yeah. i thif nk the airline lobby is lot better than the restaurant lobby. obviously the restaurant business is a lot of small businesses and they are really struggling there's millions and millions of workers. if you add up all the jobs in the airline business, i think you probably havele less than a million workers. there's definitely going to be some consolidation it's very sad to lose jobs for any reason, but this is an industry that often getsmatter

crisis is. the government is going to be thinking about how to help workers, how to continue this program here, they're going to have to consider other industries too it just can't be the airlines. >> guy, would you invest in airlines >> i think it's tradeable. the short answer is i think there are have and have nots i know you went to harvard and you read a lot of shakespeare. you have to plan for a rainy day because they brought stock backhand over fist they're all going up to capitol hill with hat in hand. i totally sympathize with potentially 30,000 of our fellow americans are going to be out of a job. i totally get that but this to me is at the hands

of the executives. they got themselves into it to a alarm extent and they've got to figure out a way to get themselves out they can do it, by the way, in the secondary market with their stock. it might not be the most savory thing to do, but there are ways to combat this in my opinion. coming up, this auto company topping the tape today what it is and what gave the stock a big boost.

welcome back to "fast money. shares of ford topping the tape today. the automow mautomaker breakingn

plans to build its new electric pickup guy, are you going to buy this truck? >> no. buy the truck? probably not do i look like a ford f-150 guy? >> you don't have anything to pick up. >> no. exactly. that's exactly right so why should i go drive to buy a gallon of milk in my f-150 it's not for me. neither is the stock it's bounced off march lows, but you go back for a decade on what's been the greatest stock market in history and arguably probably the best time to be an auto maker in history and the stock's done nothing what's going to change the narrative for these names? i don't think this is it no carav . >> we've seen the premium afforded to general motors with

its strategy here we have ford launching this electric f-150 i guess the question here is are they not being afforded enough of a premium for their ev ambition >> they're definitely not. in fact, they're being discounted based upon balance sheet issues and concern really around the balance sheet so i think if you look at their second quarter numbers, they have very strong numbers they were better than gm's numbers in terms of free cash flow and gross margin. the f-150 is arguably the most popular car in america it's certainly the most profitable car they produce. you get into ev land, why can't this be a major competitor this is a place where i think a lot of americans are willing to actually buy a ford over a tesla. does it begin to get any ev

valuation? no, it has not guy talked about it's been one of the worst performers on a relative basis to the s&p. but there have been periods when owning ford, the surprise covid victory of auto makers is not something people were pricing in i think they've been slow to figure that out and how much used and new car sales are going to be a tailwind over the next two years. yeah, i think you take a shot. when i was in high school, this was the theater i came to quite often. the support we've had over the last few months has been amazing. it's not just a work environment. everyone here is family. if you are ready to open your heart

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welcome back to "fast money. check out crude oil shaking off today's selloff and surging higher with crude gaining 10% in the past week. options traders are focused on one big name in this space bonawyn eison has the action. >> crude has bounced off that $36 level and has made a significant tear higher. what i'm seeing from the options is people are kind of fading this rally and taking profits. taking a look at hall buiburton calls outpace puts 2-1 they're implying about a 12.5% move in either direction between now and then the notable trade that really caught my eye was a sale of 5,000 of the 14 calls at about

$1.2 $1.40. people are taking some profits here break even at that 15.40, which is just about 4% higher than where we currently are there was a sale of the xle 30 struck puts. >> thanks for that, bonawyn. coming up, it is the best performing sector this year, but are more record highs really in store for tech as we head to break, check out the cramer cam it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight.

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>> we talked about ford earlier in the show. certainly, there is something understanding of their hydrogen fuel and battery technology. gm >> we lost guy, so we're not going to go to him but karen, your final trade? >> yeah. so i dip my toe into ulta. i was so upset the last time they showed earnings they are a reopening trade, so

ulta >> dan ethan >> yeah, keep an eye here, just one final chat out, steve was a great one here we're going to miss him. >> gu >> guy, we got you back. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach, put it in context call me 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer markets seem reasonably priced, until there's not enough money to keep buying the stocks that lead us higher. d