grayscalfunds. go digital. go grayscale. good 56r7b we decided to take class out on this beautiful first day of fall we're covering another big sell off on wall street the dow is down about 750 points over fears possibly of a second wave of a coronavirus and a senate showdown to fill the late justice ruth bader ginsburg seat that puts anymore economic stimulus on the back burner ahead of the election. the markets are coming off, as

you know, of three straight weeks in the red this time it's not tech that's leading the sell off you have materials, industrials and energy taking the market lower at this hour plus, still front and center for both washington and wall street is that tiktok melo drama. will the chinese give it its stamp of approval. "power lunch" starts right now let's go to bob for a look at what's happening and why. bob. >> this did not start today. it started earlier in the month. it gains momentum in the last four days. there's some very good reasons why. this didn't come out of nowhere.

let's review why the markets are down concerns in the uk about potential new lockdowns. there are increased trade tensions with china. concerns have increased. concerns about over value tech stocks that hasn't gone away. i think we're seeing a bit of rising anxiety around the election this is not a mystery about what's going on. what you want to look at as tyler mentioned is what's selling off today. if you'll notice cyclical stocks like industrials have done well in the last few months this is the worst day identify seen since really june for some of these names like dover, techtech tech -- textron. the reopening is holding up.

other stocks are having a really tough time as well if you look at the airlines, live nation, marriott, we talked about the hotels big consumer names like general motors holding up well one of the worst days i've seen in a couple movants fuouple of . there's not a lot of clear technical support right at 31043104 we're a long way from that keep an eye on that 200-day moving average >> it's like a kats hecat head n ear. you mentioned a bunch of reasons for sell off including d.c. drama.

markets have been hoping for additional stimulus. that may have gotten unlikely. kayla is here now with more for us kayla. >> reporter: to avoid a government shutdown in nine dardays both parties were discussing a compromise that would have seen money for school lunch programs. the bill that house democrats released today didn't have either of those things sparking criticism from the right senate majority leader mitch mcconnell tweeting the rough draft leaves out key release for farmers suggesting it as insult to injury. congress has nine days to fund the government through december. the senate has 12 working days between now and the election leader mcconnell and president trump said they will try to condense a historic supreme court battle into that time frame as well. over at the white house larry kudlow with his unique brand of

optimism suggests that washington can multitask >> we can get a clean cr which is the first order of business, keep the government open we could negotiate a sensible package that's targeted and would provide some assistance. >> remains unclear whether any stimulus effort can move forward. small dollar donors have been pouring money into organizations with a hundred million tlars in donations over the weekend with the death of ruth bader ginsburg becoming a galvanizing event for both sides of the aisle. >> kayla i was going to say that i've been so envious of her outdoor backdrop all summer that i decided to move outside. what do you think the odds are they can get all of what they think they can get done, done?

depends on wlp you compare the realistic attitudes to the ro rosier attitudes that a lot of the officials are sharing in public i i think the hope for a compromisive package are gone. a house republican petition will go live this friday. that could move forward and could see some moderate democrat defectors. we will see about that there's also some bipartisan support on the airlines. some airline ceos are meeting with the white house and speaker pelosi late last week. they talked about this desire to prevent layoffs. they are still very far apart o. the bitter partisan zip is only getting worse and the calendar is working harder against them thanks very much with stimulus in a doldrum and

fears of the virus weighing on the market the dow is touching its lowest level since early august how bad could things get? do you see stimulus all but dead and do you think the dow has hit its highs for the year >> we do for both of those value stox and other cyclicals have a earnings issue which is the economy will not get a whole lot better in the next few months we already priced in quite a bit of a recovery. >> the market has wobbled,

michael over the past three weeks. down each of those three weeks we're off on a down note today do you see further downs >> we see a market that will be sideways with increased volatility we have seen a lot of growth taking place back and forth. now growth stocks have been a valuation ceiling and with the increase and certainty we have into the election, we think market will be more or less sideways this sell off year is not the growth sell off that started two weeks ago. what we're seeing now is more of a classic risk off cyclical sell off where you want to focus, have your money in defense and companies that have really good fundamentals and that brings you back to a lot of the large cap growth names that do have those

characteristics. >> bryan, the floor is yours to react. do you see it the way michael does period of volatility within a narrow band or do you see something different? >> i'd like to give you a little controversy and difference of opinion but i think we're probably very close to being on the same page. once labor day came and went without a stimulus bill and started getting into election season, it became increasingly more difficult for washington to get a stimulus package through prior to the election, it's probably off the table there was some folks hoping for action in a lame duck session between the election and the inauguration the passing of justice ginsburg makes that increasingly difficult. i think that was -- that would have ban heavy lift to start

with the pazi ipassing of justice gi makes it tougher stimulus is probably punted to 2021 now we have the raised prospect of a government shutdown not this week or not kayla was talking about some of the controversy surrounding getting a bill passed by september 30th in order to avoid a shutdown i think washington will avoid the pre-election shutdown. i am more concerned that i had been about a lame duck december shutdown because we're going to get through the election there's likely to be chaos emotions are going to be raw can washington get together and avoid a shutdown in december t the prospects have gone up.

>> michael, how can i make a little money in the chaos that bryan forecasts? >> i think investors should be sick of companies that have good fundamentals we could be adding some defensive parts to the portfolio. the yields are low if we get increased volatility, it's potential for the markets to come off and bond yields to go lower. gold has been a great save haven asset as well. we would stick with a core positioning of high quality growth stock, growth cyclicals as well as a bit of defense on the side provide diversification we both expect >> thank you very much for your time today have good rest of the week kelly. we have a news alert from washington right now it's the new projections from the cbo. >> reporter: the nonpartisan

congressional budget office is projecting that u.s. debt is a percentage of gdp will reach 195% by the year 2050. that's 45 percentage points higher than the agency has projected last year. that is largely due to the coronavirus and the response that congress has had to it. even after the effects of the pandemic have faded, the deficit is still expected to remain high by historical standards reaching 13% of gdp by the year 2050. also some long term scarring effects of the pandemic including lower fertility rates and immigration. the cbo is forecasting spending will rise through 2050 and interest payments is a share of gdp be quadruple revenues are also projected to i crease however, that's not expected to keep pace with spending. the cbo notes that rising debt

persistently rising debt will pose significant risk to the outlook. financial markets note do not appear to be factoring that in just yet back over the you. >> thank you very much coming up, more on the markets as the dow is sinking. right now down more than 900 points, do i see that's what it says right in front of me. i'm going to believe it as a warning from the uk about an -- 800 points -- as another lockdown is spooking investors oracle could be the winner in the tiktok deal more power lunch after the break. machin

. welcome back a deal we thought would save tiktok is being threatened the president says he won't approve the deal if bike dance has control of the company >> president trump signed off on a deal but it's still unclear if it meets the u.s. or the chinese government oracle is set to take a 12.5% state and become its cloud provider with walmart taking a

7.5% stake that's because bike dance investors who will be getting shares of tiktok are 40% u.s. based. tiktok global would 53% owned by u.s. investors and and approximately 36% owned by chinese investors. the global times tweeted out today that chinese officials won't sign off on the deal because it threatens national security but a source close to the deal tells me they do expect to get chinese approval. it will be really interesting to see how this shapes out. >> i don't know if you can add anymore information to help why this approval looks likely and the chinese seemed more open to

it the chinese should not go along with this will prover to be a bigger sticking point. the sense this is a party aligned newspaper. he's widely followed it's a big thumbs down >> that's right. it was a big thumbs down from my sources it seems like bike dance, tiktok's owner was aware of what the government would approve or not approve when they were putting together this deal. that's why the chamber will be on the board of this new company. he would be on the board and continue to own a percentage of the company as the founder and chairman i think the understanding was as they were putting together this deal they would do something they believe the chinese government would sign off on

these things con flikts. my sources who are here in the u.s. saying if those shares in this new company are given, it' their investors owning it. we'll see what the chinese government decides or if president trump decides he still approves despite the fact there could be a chinese national on the company's board. >> it's like the most complicated flowchart of all time my guess is they hope that confusion makes, seem like everybody can say we won we'll let you go oracle manned up the big winner of this complicated mess shares are in the green by under 1%

a lot of people said is the u.s. really getting what it wants is oracle the big winner >> this has been an on and off again topic. it does appear that oracle has a real opportunity to change the narrative for the company. a narrative that has to do with growth, that has to do with cloud, relevant and exciting again. >> others have made the snarkier that it's taken the president and major international spectacle in order for oracle to win this contract. >> i would say oracle is a feisty competitor. never under estimate larry elerson if he wants to get into

a market itstarted with zoom is a customer this year that was a big deal. it was their first highly relevant actionable customer win that stood out to us we think they are compoundsing gains if they add tiktok >> this is a company that spent $67 billion on share buy backs and doesn't have much to show for it whatever they pay for this could unlock a lot more value. does it say something about the rest of the companies, the oracles of the world out there that investors are looking for growth >> that's a really salient point. we look at not only what they spent on buy backs and what that has done for the share price but their last major acquisition in the cloud space. when oracle is looking for opportunities to change the nar ti -- narrative, it's looking at this rather than large scale mna

suggests the valuation environment may not be one that supports that type of path right now. >> you say this may be the defining social media saasset oa generation what makes you so confident that tiktok is much, much more than a fad and is not replicable by some other company or some other company comes out with something that is more popular and more engaging >> that's a great question we cover enterprise software and not internet software. the data indicates the kind of engagement this app is driving is not just unique but very, at

least in the history of applications in internet software difficult to replicate. the amount of people that spend more than 10 minutes, more than 30 minutes, more than an hour engaging is very different than some of the most established apps not just the amount of people that are engaging but the am of ti -- amount of time and people engaging over an amount of time. there's a viralty that's driving this asset to be worth what we believe over a period of time could be in the 100 to $200 billion dollar range for oracle to invest at a $7.5 billion state of a company worth

60 today could be compelling and add value to the share price >> what is this splintserring f the global internet say to you this is just one of many recent examples of different rules and wall gardens and political factors that would never have been the case 5, 10, 15 years ago. will that negatively hurt the companies going forward? >> i think in my coverage universe we could look at microsoft of a gaming studio for 7.5 billion. i think there's some convergence. it's something that creates more volatility.

it has more customers need to injeki injei inject more of these digital channels, that's really good for my sector. >> fascinating >> thank you we appreciate it today >> thank you for having me still ahead, virus fears and tensions in washington taking hold of the markets right now. only walmart and apple are in the green among the dow shares financials are under pressure as sochl t some of the big banks are being accused of illicit transactions. we have details when "power lunch" returns after this.

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it's a big, big market sell off today. this time it is not tech that is leading the market lower it's those old economy groups. materials, industrials, energy, all down about 4%. financials are also getting a whack today and for more on that let's go to seema mody for "trading nation. >> tumble today in the broeder market sell off and following the report more than $2 trillion moved through the banks between 1999 and 2017 for whether this is a no touch zone let's bring in the trading nation team. with banks now likely facing

more skrutsncrutiny, how would u trade financials >> they're really terrible story. the biggest story for the banks right now taking the money laundering issue aside is the fact that the fed is suppressing interest rates they are not practicing yield curve control. they are creating yield curve control. it's the fact that nominal rates are so flat it's really killing the banks. what's happening is they are following the path of japanese banks and european banks that suffers massive profit loss by having absolutely no yield and no ability to have care. i think within that environment, it makes it a very difficult industry to trade. that having been said, though, even today, you see jpmorgan chance out performing the broader index. that is the star amongst all of the banks. if you're going to sort of trade relative bet than you would be low on jpmorgan index.

that's the best bet given the situation. >> on a day like this we tend to care a bit more about technic s technicals how are the banks trading in comparison to their 200-day movimove ing aver rage in. >> they are not trading well this is a great example when the macro turns, when the market corrects, the weak get weaker. i can defend relative strength i can defend technology on this pull back. i can't defend the banks they are breaking down from a much weaker structure. this really exemplifies the market backdrop investors, value investors have been experiencing in recent years. they peaked back in 2018 they've been in this multi-year decline since then now they are trying to base and i do think that is still in play with today's pull back but more is needed. while we're in this in between,

above support haven't broken through resistance, the point we want the make is if you're bearing out there, if you're bearish on the market, the vulnerabilities is in the banks not technology i'd stay away from this group. >> all right back to you. thank you. we'll continue to monitor this sell off dow down 812 points now. we'll look at what the 2020 election means for tech stocks opinion one top analyst will lay out the winners and losers if the president wins four more years. much more after this break we got no free pass.

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welcome back here is your cnbc update american household wealth has set a new high the rebounding stock market drove a 7% gain in three months to $119 trillion however, the gains flowed mainly to the wealthy millions of americans may not get coronavirus relief payments of $1200 per person because of incomplete government records. the government accountability office says the treasury and the irs have failed to update figures on eligible recipients who have failed to receive stimulus checks. if you missed last night's emmy awards, you were not alone. just over five million people watched the show but those are the worst ratsinings in the 72-a history. you can two to cnbc.com to see how competing programs may have stolen some of those viewers off the coast of the

australian island of tasmania, about 270 whiles are stranded on sand bar about 25 have died rescuers are trying to figure out how to coax them back out into the open waters you're up to date. i'll send it back to you we hope they skds on that. i've got to say, you know my wife and you know she works at the today show her job is in part knowing when the emmys are on she completely forgot they were on last night. that tells you that lots of people -- she forgot >> she forgot? she never does she's a fantastic producer i'm surprised. that will tell you what kind of environment we're in >> yeah. right.

the nasdaq performing the least bad. the oil market closing for the day. oil is down big. energy stocks one of the worst performing sectors today dom has the details. >> tyler, fall is what oil prices are doing and oil stocks are doing. as you pointed out let's look at the intraday action wti crude $39.28 off almost 5% at this stage. that's off the session lows. world ice brent crude futures off 40%. like we said, energy stocks, this particular etf that tracks them off 4.5%. the worst performing sector so far today. as you look at the dwreer at a time chart, you can kind of see this recovery that we have seen since the covid lows has now stalled out a little bit we're trying to see if there's any break out to the up or downside here but demand concerns because of covid are playing to the discussion and today especially some supply concerns as a big oil filled in

libya gets back up and running that's one to watch as well. take a look at what's happening with the overall sector compared to the s&p 500 on a year to date basis. look at how wide that performance gap is right there the energy sector off 48% on that basis versus about flats for the overall s&p 500. the energy is the smallest part of the s&p 500 intraday action it's a mix of those oil companies. the out performer only off 3.5%. wide ranging ripple effects happening. back to you. >> did you know energy and materials are less than 5% of the s&p? >> i did know that >> i still can't get over it >> we're sharing so much knowledge. >> it makes plesz excited about

how well materials have done of late >> it's got a long way to go one of the more than concerns dragging stocks down is fears about the strength of the economic recovery. stooefr is here to break down the sectors that are seeing a rebound with those that aren't steve. >> let's look at the top line data the cnbc rapid update sees a 30% rebound. they took it down for the fourth quarter by three points. took it down for the fourth quarter. what matters is what happens for the full year. wlooerking for a 3.9% decline compared to a prior estimate of

4.8. still slowing. housing starts, went negative in august compared to july and oil production, one of the few areas that's growing as dom and kelly were talking about employment also, those gains have been slowing as well. thomas simons from jeffreys. it was so heavily anticipated. the direction of economic surprises will be by fiscal policy on which we have no kwings at the momekwex at the moment. the direction, this is the momentum of the economy but also what's going to happen with that fiscal package both the market's minds. >> all right thank you very much.

the economy and markets are a key factor in the election despite the recent sell off. stocks are up about 43% under president trump. tech stocks climbing more than 1 120. the winners and losers if president trump is elected the analyst is tom and he joins us to discuss. it's great to have you with us on this beautiful first day of fall take it a part for us. obviously stocks have thrived under president trump but one could say that stocks, the nasdaq also thrived under president obama and mr. biden. >> stepping back, if you look at the adds right now to win the u.s. presidential election, they are pretty tight joe biden is at 5 to 6 and president trump is at 1 to 1 if you look at how the market

did, nasdaq in particular during the eight years that joe biden was vice president under president obama, the market did really well. on that basis, you can make an argument for four years of president trump or four years of president biden, the market will be more than okay. where i do think you'll see the difference is on individual names. in particular, apple under four for years of trump and amazon under four years of biden. >> let's take that apart a little bit here. as i look at where things are today, i guess you would say the analyst boils down to maybe three things that affect business one is tax rates president trump likes them where they are might even like them lower a president biden would raise them back to 28% that's one two would be regulation. president trump is strongly deregulatory president biden would probably restore some regulations

particular in the energy area. the third one is anti-trust. there it may be a push because it's possible the republicans might be just as interested in looking at some companies on anti-trust grounds as the democrats would be >> excellent points there. you think about apple as the largest taxpayers among american corporations because of their huge profits, are they really have benefitted from lower corporate tax rates under trump. they would stand to be hurt then if biden raised it on the regulatory front and anti-trust, i would argue that amazon could be in real trouble. one of the few things that has bipartisan support is reigning in the excess influence that amazon, apple, facebook and google have. if you're amazon, do you want president trump influencing both regulations and anti-competitive efforts or do you want president biden? i would think fromvant

age point they would prefer biden. >> the reason for that in part, isn't it, that president trump has no fondness for amazon because it's owner owns the washington post which has not been kind to him he's also raised the case right or wrong that by his lights amazon gets favorabletreatment from the u.s. postal service >> absolutely. if you look at the fact that amazon lost the $10 billion contract to microsoft in cloud computing, i think that's a tangible example of the cost of the president trump four more years to amazon. on the u.s. postal service, he's talked about amazon getting a sweetheart deal. it's our understanding every deal the postal service enters is profitable to the postal

service. that would be a significant cost and problem for amazon and yes there's a lot of ire directed toward amazon because mr. bezos owns the washington post that's why four more years of president trump may be a challenge for shares of amazon >> let me boil it down to a quick final question mr. trump wins you want to avoid amazon and lean toward apple. mr. biden wins, don't worry so much about amazon and maybe feel safer there and what on apple? apple be okay under biden administration >> apple would pay higher taxes and to the extent that lower taxes more money for buy backs that would be problematic for apple. apple stands to benefit under trump and be challenged underco. thank you. mump more on the sell off we're seeing today it's not the usual suspects dragging us down

a look at the names to the dow's loss their are hoywl,neel united health and 3m. we'll be right back. stay with us that's what my dad does.

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welcome back we are watching a big sell off on wall street but today it's a dow sell off to the tune of about 857 points the s&p is down 2.5% fp nasdaq we have seen an awful lot of selling in recent weeks is the best of the bunch today. many reasons for the sell off and one big one being ncreased concerns about the coronavirus globally and here in the u.s big spike in cases in the uk has some talking about the possibility of a second lockdown over there

airlines are down big across the board. cruise lines sense tifr to any headlines nape a headlines. they are lower coming up, on this down day the drop in shares of nikola stands out the outspoken founder resigns from the company as we head to break, look at bond yields. no surprise they are falling across the board you can see several of the different benchmarks the 10-year yield. stay with us

welcome back, everybody. shares of nikola are down more than 20%, lowest levels since going public in june the company's co-founder trevor milton has now given up his position as executive chairman and phil lebeau has more on this unfolding saga phil >> tyler, the question now becomes what happens with nikola after trevor milton leaves he left the company immediately. sure, he is a consultant until the end of the year. of he's not part of the future of nikola. what does happen the new chairman, steve girsky engineers the nikola spec-ipo earlier in the year. the hydrogen fuel cell semi,

that is the one technology and the one area of focus that many on wall street believe that they can still make a play for and do well in. the gm deal, in order of supplying hydrogen fuel cells as well as building an electric pickup truck, that deal still stands in fact, take a look at shares of general motors, it is scheduled to take an 11% stake in nikola and the company said today, look, we plan on closing that deal. we are not changing our minds on that as fnikola, rbc cutting the pric target to $29. when you read the analyst notes, guys, the one thing that stands out is they all say you have to get past the milton saga to then focus on what might be possible in the future especially when it comes to the hydrogen fuel cell stemmie semis. thank you very much. >> we're following this huge selloff on wall street you can watch or listen on the go on the cnbc app

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the september swoon continues. the dow having the biggest one day decline since june 11th. the s&p 500 down 10% from the record high at the beginning of the month. let's bring in tim seymour it's good to see you rotation and implosion it is interesting today. there is not much of a rotation flavor today all the rotation names are getting hurt is this just a one day covid-19 scare about the uk or something more . >> we kind of run the cycle where we had had extreme performance growth to value and then the pullback of the big five of 18% from september 4th that you get to a place here where on, you know, clearly today is as yogy would say, i know you're a huge yogy bae yog

fan, whether it's netflix or peloton that is outperforming and anything related to transport, hapt a transport, hospitality and the banks. they underscore the fears of of what might have been the news out of europe this morning to be clear you've seen rotation from mid may that is largely held up into transports and some parts of the industrials that i actually think are going to continue to hold up. i think today that has been a very painful place to be >> yeah. >> but they've outperformed the s&p 500 since made may by 20%. >> stick with the rotation he is brilliant, that goes without saying, tim. >> of course >> we need to bring him in for the segment. listen, there are some kind of factors here i'm curious to get your take on you pointed out a couple of them bizarreo land you call theld with moves in tesla and the early kind of flush that we were

seeing at the same time, a lot of people are focused on the new participants in the market and whether margin calls are are going to become, you know, really important event throughout the day how does this trading action feel to you? >> right so bizarre-o land refers to 150 minutes this morning when tesla went down 10% and then rose almost 10% to get itself back to flat on the day. apple appropriately in beta terms of the two companies relative to themselves was down about 3% until it then bottomed and went back positive if you look at some parts of the market that are popular with retail, you get sense today when you see all asset classes sell off, look at gold and silver, for example. especially the move in silver. gives you some sense this does touch into some parts of the retail market. but, again, i think a lot of the moves that we talked about even for the last two weeks since september 4th are a function of

wrf we have come from. p that's w that's why we need to recalibrate. fed powell will be speaking three times this week in front of congressional panels. and we did a lot of this last week i won't go there but we know where the fed is i think we're going to be reminded where the fed is for a put in this market. >> one of your favorites right now, quickly st. >> first of all, i like walmart. and tiktok or no tiktok, i think the move that they've had whether it's walmart plus and what we've seen in their ability to slowly begin to take the e-commerce trade away from amazon but certainly to dominate on price against all of the other big box, i think it's something that we continue to follow that trade. i think it will be very defensive here >> one of the few names in the green today. tim, thanks so much. always good to check in with you. we appreciate it >> thank you >> tim seymour before we go, do you have wind chimes in your yard? >> i have wind chimes in my yard i don't know if you hear the dogs next door barking those are the dogs of the dow. you hear the dogs?

those are the dogs of the dow. >> the last couple days i thought i heard very faint wind chime and ways losing it or something. and now i realize what is. you're in your yard there. >> they're right over there. we have -- we have incense burning, it's very nice. >> i'll be there in a half hour. >> see you tomorrow. >> thank you for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you very much, kelly and team welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen along with wilfred frost. the september swoon is raging as we begin a new trading week on wall street. stocks falling sharply the s&p 500 briefly going negative for the year. on a jam packed day of news. let's look what the is driving the action one hour left of trade coronavirus concerns are growing in the u.s. and abroad the united states is quickly approaching 200,000 covid-19 deaths and the uk reportedly considering a fresh lockdown to slow the sprea