deal and that was a jab at the trump administration, but if in fact jake sullivan, kurt campbell and his advisers stick to that i think the biden administration will be realistic in their dealings with china. >> kyle, thank you i appreciate it. becky, you want to take us out or -- you've got five seconds. here we are. >> that does it for us today, we will see you guys tomorrow, right now it's time for "squawk on the street. bye-bye. ♪ good tuesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber we are looking for some stability today after the s&p's first four-day loss since february got powell and mnuchin on the hill talking pandemic response, tesla battery day, the uk announces new lockdown restrictions and oil is trying to reclaim 40. our roadmap begins with fed chair powell and treasury secretary mnuchin, what to expect from today's testimony in front of the house financial

services committee and how the markets may react. >> then we will talk a bit about this try yant stake in our parent company comcast, what is the behind the thinking at triant and what if anything may owe dur as a result. >> tesla's battery day, where that stock is trying to recover this morning after yet another tweet from elon musk which is part of the discussion today, jim. whether or not he's setting expectations in a different way saying that some of this high volume production is a phenomenon still a couple years away. >> he's giving us an underpromise, overdeliver, i think, which is highly unlike him, but it could make more a little more pizzazz. there's been so much talk about battery day, maybe he lowers expectations an blow them out. people come out and want to buy tesla, want to buy amazon, positive notes about apple, positive note about facebook it's just become the pattern you're waiting and waiting for

when the selling is over and then, david, they cannot resist. they're down 15 and 17 percent what do they do? apple down 2r5 they can't stay away, david, they just can't. >> they kant for that long, although to be fair you just said it, i mean, the percentage declines have been fairly significantly in the names that we know best and that were the most loved. >> you're right. i went over qualcomm, i want over cisco and i went over intel. 1998 to march of 2000. and we did not have a reversal as great as we just had for most of these stocks. i think that's pretty interesting because we were all saying 1999/2000 that's what we're doing. you didn't have that kind of reversal so it makes me feel a little better about the market. at the same time when you have things like tesla and battery day you start thinking are we really in that kind of fantasy world? now, look, he is no nikola, i mean, nikola was a fiasco. tesla is good.

but, carl, the focus on battery day as a reason why you want to buy stock just does -- it kind of makes you laugh a little. >> right right. well, of course, back then at least with cisco, jim, we didn't have stories in the journal suggesting that the chinese were building a tech black list and that names like cisco might be on it. >> yeah, i mean, very funny because cisco -- chuck robbins left china a long time ago, he's got about 2% why? because he knows that china is not the place to deal with now, we have a recommendation today about applied materials and a lot of it is, hey, listen, don't worry about china. i always worry about china i am not where kyle bass is, kyle bass is correctly analyzing this as an unfair situation where the chinese get all our data and we get nothing. but what i care about is when you start a piece about applied materials and yousay don't worry about china. what do i do of course i worry about china. david, when you are told not to

worry and you weren't worried to begin with, doesn't it, therefore, make you worried? >> yes, it's always a sign that you should worry if you aren't worried when you're told to worry or asked why you aren't worried. i agree. and now i'm worried >> you're worried? >> yes. >> i'm worried, too. carl, some of these companies have such a concentration in china that you have to wonder whether they're just going to pick them off one by one the tiktok, the key issues of the tiktok was the president wanted a win so much that the only way to get a win was to just make the chinese look like -- well, let's say -- david, help me here. how did he make the chinese look >> well, i don't know yet because this thing is far from over >> well, that's diplomatic. >> i think he's trying to pants them there, i did it. he's trying to pants -- >> it's such a weird time that we are in a place where the u.s. government basically helps to structure a transaction. >> right, but, david, it's 100 million people and it's videos

carl, when youlook at those videos don't you feel your iq just seeping down? i mean, it's amazing when i watch the videos i just say, wow, stupid time. 50 minutes of stupid time. >> yes i think a viewer wrote in yesterday saying every time we roll the tiktok vo on our screen it gives them another reason to look away for a moment you know, what is it, jim? is it silly kid and cat videos or are algorithms that threaten national security at the heart of this debate >> there was a great book called "the manchurian candidate" the original not the later one, the original one was so great with frank sinatra and you do feel like there is an element of brain washing, david it's an element where you just say, do you know what, the chinese have my information and in return i get to get stupid. >> maybe or does it all just go back to the tulsa rally? >> it goes back to the tulsa rally, but, david, you are not

supposed to say that. >> okay. sorry. we didn't say it. >> david, you just did the unthinkable. >> really? that's unthinkable i don't think i'm out there on that. >> national security thing, suddenly you are talking about the tulsa rally because the tulsa rally was almost empty because of tiktok, do you think someone is that vengeful >> yes, just basing it on history. by the way, as a resident of new york i think we know what that feels like i mean, they're coming at us every day, right it's anarchy here, apparently. >> we have mnuchin and powell who are on the team, carl, they make it so that when they speak you have to cover your shorts and do some buying because they are the last vestige of trying to get the small and medium-sized business some money before they are all closed i mean, you know, every day we come in, i don't know if you guys watch it, but there is a steak house chain that goes under, new restaurants, five chains go under. carl, it is very hard to maintain social distance and also maintain profitability.

>> i saw your tweet this morning about watch pennsylvania as they go to 50% restaurants, except for philly, as you said, sticking at 25 i'm reminded of two things, guys, one is the president last night saying -- and i'm quoting here -- the virus affects virtually nobody that's an amazing thing. >> okay. >> and powell's statement which we will hear later on this morning and that is that the path forward will depend on keeping the virus under control and we know what boris johnson is saying this morning in the uk in fact, really quick guys, take a listen to what the prime minister there is saying about these new lockdown restrictions which could last as long as six months >> mr. corbat speaker, we will spare no effort in developing vaccines, treatments, new forms of mass testing, but unless we palpably make progress we should assume that the restrictions i have announced will remain in place for perhaps six months >> it's just a sense of urgency,

jim, that we don't get here. >> no. look, the more you dig down in this problem you see that 40% of the deaths are in nursing homes, you see a big spike every time they open restaurants and bars because of the aerosol, we can talk about that, the cdc is a highly erratic organization, frankly i don't really understand -- i always thought that that was one of those places if you're really smart you want to work on. i had eli lilly on last night. if you read between the lines, david is so interested in this, even more interested than maybe the comcast story, he's talking about the monoclonal antibodies absolutely stopping it he's saying it can happen. they bring an rv to nursing homes where there is an outbreak and everybody gets the monoclonal antibodies and they are getting positive results maybe you can do it in hot spots like colleges. if you open the bars in philadelphia right now at 25% do you know how many fist fights are going to happen about the

eagles everybody is going to get it. >> they do show the correlation between opening bars and cases going down and closing bars and cases coming don it would seem that is one key area for spreading contagion, unfortunately. boris johnson, let's not forget, he almost died. >> yes. >> he was very sick early on in the pandemic, of course, having had covid and been in intensive care jim, you know, when you step back and you look at the heartache in this country, whether it is people suffering from covid and results of it and deaths, or when you -- there are people who are stuck at home with kids who aren't going to school, or people who have lost their homes in wildfires in california or -- i mean, you go on and on. let's not forget there is no shortage out there of hardache in all sorts of different ways. >> right i think that fundamentally you have to figure out the single parent who has a job but also has children at home and what do you do one of the things that we've

always taken -- i mean, i won't a latch key kid, is that when your mom and dad are working, you come home and you're loan, you watch some tv, it's not bad, but it's not really like that anymore. you go to school in an inner city and the school is a great place and it really helps the parent and, carl, when you make a parent choose between the job and the child, i think it should be the child, but i understand people's finances, and that's why we need stimulus is it so hard to figure out that we need stimulus when you have a single parent trying to figure out what to do and tortured between going to work and being a mom or dad i mean, this is why washington is so dysfunctional. we are so worried about the 100 million people who decided to get stupid every day and we're not worried about the single parent, the spouse, the parent, the mom who is trying to figure out whether to go to work, lose their job, take care of her kid. carl, i can't believe that this is happening all over the country. but since school started that's the choice that we're forcing

people to make. >> yep which is why obviously we always come back to the vaccine timelines, jim i was looking at bernstein's timeline which is not all that encouraging today. they are allowing for some emergency use potentially in november, but they're talking approval for pfizer, second quarter. moderna, second quarter. azn, mid '21, j & j, mid '21 as you said, your guest on lily yesterday, all the emphasis on therapies as well and antibodies take a listen. >> speed is a hallmark of the industry's response to covid-19 and i don't think most every day listeners understand we developed this antibody and got proof of concept in six months usually that's more than six years. >> wow >> all right, jim, so hopefully we will err on the side of optimism here. >> look, we have masks and we have social distancing and those work until you take them off i mean, that's one of the

reasons restaurants and bars are hot spots. you can't eat and wear a mask. i know there's different people that say masks don't matter. if everybody wears a mask things are better look at the california numbers, look at the arizona numbers. but empirically people don't want to look at the numbers now they are only talking about deaths i think one of the things we have learned about covid is it's not just death there's so many illnesses that stick with people who have covid, anybody who knows anyone who had covid knows a lot of people don't bounce back immediately. those numbers are daunting about the vaccine but it has to do with the fact how do you decide that one person is doing better with the placebo than the other person who has the vaccine you have to go about six months. why we are not focused on that is crazy elevators, carl, elevators to offices, trading desks where everyone is next to each other, sneezing which we have to accept the fact if you have a mask is better than if you don't and all of this is surreal because we all know that it's making a come back, you can see the charts,

you just go to the "new york times," they are all like this and yet there's so many denial -- so many people in denial. >> right. >> i don't get it. >> jim, to come back to another large issue which you touched on but we should again is what is the prospect for getting some relief out of congress in terms of some bill i mean, last week it seemed as though we were creeping closer to it. >> right. >> mark meadows, the chief of staff, seemed to be more optimistic than he had been and yet here we are and now of course this pitch battle that's going to take place in terms of potential replacement for justice ginsburg, there are a lot of people who think we're never going to see a relief package. never. at least not for the remainder of the president's term. >> i'm getting in that camp. carl, it's the wrong camp. you can't choose kid versus job. it's not fair. that's what they're making. >> when we come back, guys, we will try to set up powell and mnuchin as best as we can. got an upgrade of amazon and

news over there as well. some reports this morning of layoffs at brookfield and ralph lauren we will delve into that with futures trying to hold her back in a minute ♪e. back in a minute ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪

the big events are back. xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. news out late yesterday that trian the very well known activist-focused fund had taken a position in our parent company comcast. helped to stabilize if not send those shares higher from what

had been a significantly down day. they did move up towards the end of the day, you can see regaining a bit of ground, the stock had been as high as 47 a few days ago before the markets overall downturn what can we tell you about this? trian is set to earn about .4%, a significantly sum, as a percentage quite small given comcast is a more than $200 billion market cap company they're not sharing at trian very much, they don't want to make this play out in the media, at least not at this point, you never know when that might choose to be the case, but their focus is on what at least many people might be expected to focus on, the divergence and multiples that a broadband company such as charter gets versus an entertainment company. of course, comcast comprises both it's got a significant broadband presence in this country as our viewers well know, of course, and when you look at this performance of comcast versus charter you can understand some investors would say, well, wait

a second, why can't you throw a multiple that charter is getting on the broadband business, put the disney multiple on the other business and you get a higher stock price. will brian roberts do anything to address that? he is a long-term guy and a very aggressive guy as we have all known and have seen through the many deals that comcast was engineered for many years. the most recent of which was sky. that was a high price paid for sky and given the pandemic and given what's happened to theme parks and given what's happened to movie theaters and we can go through all of it, of course, the company overall has seen the ebitda come down, the learning ratio remains fairly high. brian rodgers isn't entertaining the thought of splitting the company. my understanding is he would always want to have the same voting control for the roberts family that they currently have and that gets us back to the key point here

33.5%, that's what it is, jim. roberts controls 33.5% of the votes at comcast you're not going to get anything done, certainly not in an unfriendly way, and not in any way most likely. you could talk, you can have a conversation as trian and comcast have, you can keep it very civil and, by the way, you might even be able to sort of agree on certain things in terms of how do you go about proving the sort of broadband multiple more would you ever consider doing some things down the road, but take a look at the long term there, jim that's -- that's still value creation over a long period of time and that's what brian roberts is going to argue and doesn't even need to when you have 33.5% votes. >> and in full fairness i own a lot of stock and i have to say that i will say that is there a lot of synergy between some of the pieces maybe it would go up if you separate it, but why not go after companies that do badly? i've never been a big believer in going after companies and

rattling the cage, particularly ones where they are not going to do anything, that have done well i was a believer in sky, david, and i still am look, there is a pandemic, who knows what the heck is going on with people, but they made a bold move and so far they said that the stock would go down and then it would have a big run and that's exactly what happened so why go against someone that actually had a plan. the plan is working. >> yeah. listen, sky was, as you well know, as we all -- i cover it every day, every minute -- was a robust auction and comcast did pay a very high price. added leverage of course as well, although still -- still has plenty of cash to fund potential investment in the business, but you're right, jim, that is sort of what they had anticipated, obviously nobody anticipated the pandemic and the impact that that's having, particularly on -- particularly on theme parks you know, listen, when you talk

to bingers their dream of course is this idea, well, maybe get at&t to spin out warner and then you could spin nbc into warner and create a giant media conglomerate that could compete with anybody and everybody including the netflixes of the world, doesn't seem likely that's going to happen, either bankers like to dream these things up. comcast will at least entertain conversations with trian where they talk about these things, but does anybody really come of it that much is hard to imagine. >> david, remember when we met with a great american jet bukas and i came up with a short term idea to break the company and he said that is an extremely short term deal to break the company up we may -- if we saw the theme parks working right now, this stock could be at 55. >> yeah is that it's very hard, the theme parks with fabulous. disney is down a lot i totally respect trian, this he do unbelievable work, i love their white papers, i hope we get one.

again, i don't think you should go after the guys that have created a lot of value long term. >> by the way, they may have bought the stock -- this stock was in the mid 30s early pandemic and they've been buying the stock for some time. >> they got a win. >> they've go unthese conversations. doesn't mean we're going to see a white paper or much of anything at this point but it is certainly interesting to focus on. >> sure is. >> there is no doubt that there has got to be frustration when you look at charter up 26.6% this year as a result of being a pure broadband play, but that is not the strategy that's been embraced at comcast. >> no. >> carl, over to you. >> all right, guys a lot to get to this morning as we await powell and mnuchin in front of house financial services later on this morning "squawk on the street" is back after a break with futures trying to hang on to the green i'm hector. i'm a delivery operations manager in san diego, california. we were one of the first stations to pilot a fleet of electric vehicles.

we're striving to deliver a package with zero emissions into the air. i feel really proud of the impact that has on the environment. we have two daughters and i want to do everything i can to protect the environment so hopefully they can have a great future. before money, people tools, cattle, grain, even shells represented value. then currency came along. they made it out of copper, gold, silver, wampum.

soon people decided to put all that value into a piece of paper, then proceeded to wave goodbye to value, printing unlimited amounts of money as they passed the buck to the future. that's why it's time for digital currency and your investment in the grayscale funds. go digital. go grayscale. the price increases on apple continue last week it was jefferies and needh needham, city, today it's ray jay going to 120, with that apple is the dow gainer tathe moment premarket opening bell is in six minutes stay restless

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen. a leader in income, alternatives and responsible investing. time now for a mad dash. you know, amazon shares are only up 60% this year, jim.

>> but, david, they've been down 16% in the last couple weeks, cooped of like the others like apple. there is a piece of research i'm looking at and i genuinely like it, a bernstein piece, upgrade, hold to buy. the analyst, he undervalued the sole e-commerce demand aggregator, undervalued, were skeptical about one-day shipping talks about how he didn't see the fulfillment capacity and the flywheel nature of prime i think it's great that a guy comes in, uses the breakdown to put the money to work and say, listen, it's time. sometimes it's just really good to own up and admit that you didn't get it right but now you got the break and you're bringing your mind i like that. >> yeah. e-commerce is permanently inflected and everyone is being treated like a winner. >> yes david, are you going to inflect today? i inflected over the weekend when the eagles lost i don't know, carl, i really

feel like that these -- that faang got buried yesterday, everyone decided faang was dead again. i find as i always say to davie because i'm a soony sales fan, faang is back. >> faang is back, okay. >> when faang is your safe haven asset, jim, look what peloton and zoom and docusign did yesterday in a pretty rough tape. >> yeah, i mean, zoom is -- zoom is just total lockdown, it's up from 26% in the last seven days, but zoom stands for jamie dimon, i'm sorry, they're not coming back and i think that people have to recognize that when you are -- this four people in an elevator thing where you are all supposed to look -- david, have you been in an elevator >> yeah, i've been in an elevator. >> you look that way, i look that way, carl looks like this way, hopefully there is not a fourth person -- >> i'm not in there with anybody else other than my dog maybe or my family. >> if you are going to a trading

desk, david -- >> no, i have not been in an elevator in an office building. >> well, elevators to me i'd rather be in a plane really, i'd rather be in an plane than an elevator it takes forever, you wait in line, it's so -- i mean, better to zoom than have someone cough in an elevator. >> commercial real estate industry of new york thanks you. thank you so much for that appreciate it. >> every banker tested why is the nfl doing okay? why is baseball doing okay now why is basketball? ufc, ultimate fight club they are apparently on some island, nobody knows where they are. all the pro sports are doing well because of testing, testing, testing i think bankers have to be testing, testing, testing. goldman, ralph lauren, test, testing. >> there is a headline that bar cla is is bringing back 1,000 people in the uk who were going into the office obviously after those new lockdown restrictions were announced and the return to work push in the uk is being

reversed opening bell, guys, we will watch for breadth. it was fascinating to listen to barry diller talk about returning to work realistically as a june of next year story he said until employers tell workers you are coming back nothing is going to start again because the fear among the rank and file remains too acute. >> you have grown-ups who have kids, you have grown-ups who produce a lot of money at banks and they have houses, they are getting -- this is the urban exodus, they have country houses, the numbers of country houses and urban exodus in new jersey the numbers are amazing and they are not coming back because they don't want to get sick i know there is a big cohort in this country who thinks you don't get sick maybe they don't -- aren't in office towers, but there is a propensity to believe that zoom is doing better than if you are there. i know that's ridiculous, but if everybody is in zoom, if barclays is pitching business and goldman is pitching business and morgan stanley is pitching business and everyone is using

zoom you don't have to go anywhere it's not like someone has an edge no one is going to come in and say i want you to pitch you software i don't want you pitching me software, i don't want you anywhere near me, david, this is as good as i want to get to you, frankly. >> this is as good as you and i unfortunately have been able to get to each other in quite some time it's made it difficult to have more intimate conversations. >> the cdc will probably come out and say it's a 16 foot projectile and take it down. tour the yds used to be like this really intense -- they used to be like hopkins. >> we talked to scott gottlieb about that this morning and he minced no words regarding the credibility of cdc you're scaring me a little bit today. >> it's not scare. >> i do walk around the city of new york, there's everybody outside, enjoying dinner >> so wear your mask. >> people are doing fine they're doing just fine. >> anarchist jurisdiction, david. >> i know. carl, it's really bad out there

in central park. all those people playing spike ball everywhere, it's terrible it's anarchy, i'm telling you, anarchy. >> it's just bars and restaurants, that's what i care and it's unfortunate that i own and a bar and restaurant but i recognize the potential. it is so hard, i see people trying to have a corona with the mask on. it's just hard. >> carl, we need more -- i mean, you keep saying, jim, leads me to relief. we need to have a bill out of congress that is going to actually provide in some fashion. >> well, why do you think i keep mentioning this. >> you're not even talk being a return to normalcy anytime soon. >> do you remember when secretary mnuchin talked about business insurance interruption, you get insurance until you get the vaccine. that's all 14 and 15 million people are involved in situations that -- danny meyer, have you gone to any of danny myers' places lately having that expensive wine just kidding that's a guy that's a reference

to paul weiss amazing fantastic guy. we used to do business over dinner and you can't do that anymore, carl. you just can't. >> i might make an exception. >> what's also true, jim, is that people want to get a car, their own car, rather than take uber that's the thesis behind piper today on carvana you've got goldman upping carvana and vroom. carvana offering a billion in senior notes, this he see potential ebitda break even in q3 between that and auto zone and carmax, it's all about autos today. >> i think that the used auto business is unbelievable, the autozone -- when you do double the comps that people expect, i like the carvana piece, i've used carvana, by the way, it's kind of cool we bought the car, we didn't like t they took it back can you imagine? once it usually leaves the lot you're finished. it's pretty good yes, carl, people don't want to carpool anymore and they don't want to use public transit we haven't seen the end of

the -- there's still an overhang of too many used cars but i think it's only a matter of time before the car business turns up along with the house business and that's how you get one of the booms and then the bust is residential real estate in cities and restaurants and that can be protected, you can corden that off and help people trying to figure out what to do with colleges, carl, that's my next one i'm focusing on. >> colleges are hanging in there. some of them many of them are hanging in tlnd a keeping the students there, by the way, which is the smart thing to do. >> so your son tested repeatedly. >> twice a week. if you get it you are sent off to the quarantine prison that quarantine prison does not look good, i think they slide your meals under the door. >> bucknell has a beautiful quarantine. >> it's going well and we can only hope it does. >> you're telling me you should choose a college depending upon where the quarantine is. >> no. >> how about four seasons quarantine of you. >> by the way, what i feel more, jim, isall the kids who are fully remote in every way,

again, back to that, whether it's kids at home in grade school, all the way up and obviously those who are taking college from their bedroom that is -- it's not what people anticipated. guys, to change it up for a moment here i want to get back to some news, things i've been covering, that we've been covering tiffany of course that battle with lvmh which continues. we got an important ruling yesterday from the delaware chancery court, remember tiffany wanted to expedite a hearing or expedite the trial in which it is suing to say, hey, you got a buy at 135 enough already. the judge came out and gave us a date it wasn't exactly what tiffany hoped for, they would have loved to have something prior to november 24th when lvmh can walk away so to speak, it is january 5th. they're going to have to go to trial, they will have to show up, they're scheduling four days for it we will see if bernard arnault actually has to get on the stand

and a lot of other things that are going to be discussed here they had the hearing yesterday, i did not listen to it word-for-word, however, the people i rely on for judgment in terms of it said they don't believe the arguments made by lvmh were particularly strong in any way, shape or form in terms of continuing to argue for material adverse effect. that said here is what lvmh had to say, again, it will be january 5th and then you will have the trial and if they're forced to close he will they will be forced to close, it's called specific performance. that lvmh statement was fairly statement which is we think we will demonstrate to the american justice system that the management of tiffany during the covid crisis constitutes a material adverse effect. jim, they've come back a lot now, again, this gets into another argument lvmh says, come on, they haven't come back fully in any way although luxury has to a certain extent. that's the whole idea. you can't have a material adverse effect at one point and not have it when you're closing.

we will see where things end up. you know, we all would love to see bernard arnault on the stand, i just can't imagine it's ever going to get to that. they're going to figure something out here probably. >> i keep going back to simon properties because -- >> that starts in michigan november 13, i'm not sure. >> do you remember during the great crisis in 2008-2009 there were companies that would be sold to other companies and you had to buy it anyway. >> there were a couple that had to buy bankrupt entities. >> creditor home lending, lemd, do you remember that one they bought it and the next day they closed it. >> a contract is a contract. we will see what the delaware chancery court has to say. >> did you go to law school? >> i did not. >> that's the first thing you learn, a contract is a contract, the second thing is specific performance you have to show up. >> right. >> unless your voice is bad the opera singer has to show up because they agreed to show up famous case. carl, i think that these are two

companies that they got had by the virus, not by themselves i thought barry dillard was great today by saying there is a lost era because of this he was good today. >> he had so much to say on reopening, on tiktok, on capex, on vegas, mgm. diller delivered some insight today. jim, you mentioned the amazon upgrade at bernstein we're watching peloton today because of this agreement with echelon which would be amazon's first ever connected fitness stationary bike. 499 is a fraction of what a peloton bike goes for now, jim, especially when you have to wait i think it's 7 to 11 weeks. >> yeah, the wait is long and amazon is somebody you just don't want to tussle with. david, this incredible special -- stop laughing, it was a great piece. >> thank you. >> my father and i watched it seven times. david, when they decide in a they want to own something, have

they ever failed when they want to own a market? >> rarely. listen, this is a key contention and something that is being looked at from a competitor prospective from the antitrust authorities. do they compete with their third-party merchants when they see how things are going and introduce their own project. i have an amazon razor, i don't know about you, and it was much cheaper. >> amazon like the shave >> yeah. a lot of blades you get for like -- it's not quite as good, but, hey -- >> i didn't know. >> yeah. >> they're going to crush gillette. >> yeah. >> harry's. >> they're going to crush mary's and the other guy. >> a switch to layoffs, brookfield 20% layoff, ralph lauren may i don't have, marriott layoff. no stimulus needed everything is great. >> yeah, the hotel business is not an easy business to be in. >> you heard barry diller,

airbnb is the whipper. >> new york city has so many hotels closed, you go through any major city there is no tourist, no businesspeople for the most part. these places if they are operating at all are operating with skeletal staffs i had a friend in a hotel recently in minneapolis, there's three people running the hotel lights are off, can't get any food. >> i know. you can get a cheese sandwich in a totally vacuum-packed thing. carl, people don't recognize that this industry has stopped it's stopped i own a piece of an inn, do you think anybody shows up at an inn? no i have been in a restaurant and bar. i should go watch tiktok all day, that's the only way i would be more stupid than i am with an inn, a restaurant and a bar. >> i guess there was some summer vacation drive location business i know we went to lake george this summer, but minimal

staffing lowe's today is doing a contactless locker where you have contact with no human being, it's put in a locker and then you go pick it up on your own. >> i hate humans david? >> yeah. >> humans, major source of covid, right >> yeah. >> i keep coming back to the aerosol, the cdc aerosol this he did a flash sale, it's like guilt.com the cdc. >> because the advisory was on and then it was off. >> a flash sale. >> what is your take away from that, jim? >> it's obvious that aerosol -- people sneeze, they project covid to you and maybe you die, fewer people die, that's terrific, but i think that the cdc's flash sale made a lot of sense. >> carl, i think my take away from today hearing jim is that the three of us are not going to be on a set together for a while unfortunately. >> yeah. >> this is a new world. >> i don't know about you, but i've been asking i've been asking at least give us a timeline, when can we start

to think about being on set, what kinds of things could they do at the exchange to mitigate the risk but i don't think that conversation is happening. >> did you see the fines, carl, for the teams in the nfl where they didn't wear the masks the nfl is really serious. they know the masks are good then, again, they're testing, testing, testing, i just think that's what speaker pelosi always says. look, we are all watching football, there is no covid. how is that possible those guys are in contact. the answer is they're testing and no one is going anywhere if you work for the nfl, i think they just go home. does anyone know how come there's no covid in the nfl? where is david tepper? let me get tepper on the phone, find out what that story is. >> i think the quote is i said slow the testing down. that's the quote so that sort of gives you a sense of where sentiment is at least in the executive branch on testing in this country. >> well, i mean, all i can tell you is that when you see testing

people lead their lives differently. they tend not to go out, they tend not to go to these restaurants and they are not going to bars. i think that when you see what happened in the united kingdom it's pretty obvious people started going out and having a darn great time and, david, you are not going to have a great time in a pandemic let's just own that. you're going to sit out in the back, maybe have a barbecue, but otherwise you're miserable if you're miserable it stops. >> some people are not willing to take that tradeoff. in some ways i guess you can't blame them. >> the real lockdown countries what did they do they went two months and they just locked it down completely and that's who wins. total lockdown wins. but we don't want to do that >> carl, we do have -- >> the protocols are very tough in the nfl thank you, david tepper. >> life in the market overall, as you know, carl, with the s&p up about a half a percent, tesla and netflix are down i want to send it back to you, i know you are going to head over to bob pisani as well.

>> let's do it 3298, let's get to bob, good morning, bob. >> good morning, guys. i'm eager to rejoin you guys at the nyse as well, i've been in touch with them regularly, they are taking active measures to control any potential outbreak, there hasn't been any down there at the new york stock exchange, the problem is getting there, using the subways as well as the fact that there is almost nobody on wall street to talk to physically and that trading in homes has been very successful overall. i think that's a big issue we all have to face i share your desire to get back there. four down days for the s&p, we will see if we can break that. look at the sectors here, consumer discretionary, modestly on the upside, tech modestly on the upside, health care weak, had a rough day yesterday, the mega cap names they are all over the place in the last two days apple this morning was 103 at the open, folks, yesterday it's 111 today yesterday 103. that's a 10% move in 24 hours. does that make a lot of sense to you? it doesn't to me we had a rally late in the day

and all the mega cap tech names, nvidia still weak but incredible the move up. work from home this is a tough time figuring out the valuations on these stocks, zoom opened at 477, 460 -- 461 or 462 there, that's crazy. 209 we had for docusign at the open, i don't know where it is now, 201, last time i looked 202. look at these big moves, this is in 15 minutes we are seeing these moves. this tells you they can't figure out what the right valuation for these stocks are there is a bet some companies will be beneficiaries of a second wave pandemic reclosing i think it's highly unlikely i think it's unlikely we will have lockdowns for a long period in the u.s we will try to live with that vier health care on the down side, we had that weakness yesterday in some of the managed medicare companies like sentina and the hospitals like tenet, unclear on the uncertainty regarding the future of obamacare. they are still a little weak

rough day for them yesterday we had a 10% correction, almost exactly 3388 in the beginning of september, then we went to 3,230 yesterday, that's a 10% correction so we had reopening story help, we had tech help at some point, we had some of the value names helping at certain points, didn't last very long. i think the bull case right now is we just churn around until the election and get various sectors that keep helping the market basically hold up tech drives the rally, we all know that, but other things can come along the way and help as well as for the ipo market we got an interesting one today that is not a biotech or a tech, although partially a tech company. we're waiting for good rx to price on the nasdaq, that should happen tonight for trading tomorrow, this is an online drug prescription comparison platform you know them, they're heavily advertised all around, 33, 34 million shares, 24 to 28, backed by silver lake unlike a lot of these tech names they're profitable and they're

growing fast that's a magic formula there that's going to raise close to $900 million the ipo parade, folks, continues. carl, back to you. >> all right, bob, thanks. before we go to break, take a look at how treasuries are performing this morning ahead of the fed chair and the treasury secretary at house financial services ten year 67 basis points or so, watching for some of these kinks in the curve uk is also in focus, the prime minister is going to address the nation over there at 8:00 p.m. local time unveiling some new restrictions to combat covid, urging people to two, from home and help slow the spread yield on the ten year is rising today. take a look at the dollar index as we go to break, about 45 minutes away from the fed chair on the hill. don't go away. [ thunder rumbles ]

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tim cook weighing in on work from home trends during the interview with "the atlantic" festival cook said he's impressed how apple employees have adapted to working remotely, but he added that some changes might remain after the pandemic take a listen. >> it's not like being together physically, and so i can't wait for everybody to be able to come back into the office i don't believe that we'll return to the way we were, because we found that there are some things that toactually wor really well virtually. >> that's an interesting departure, jim, from what larry fink and reed hastings and barry diller have said over the past

few weeks. >> i think when you're out there at cupertino traffic, when you're out there spending all your time in your car, when you are out there, if you're a believer in climate change and the idea that you don't want to add to it, when you have zoom working really well, i think that tim cook's right. i think you don't need to go out much, and you don't need to take the big trips, but i think mostly the central office is going to be visited at times, and not visited at other times i think that's the way it's going to be. >> i think working assumption that after the pandemic passes, as soon as possible, of course, that 10% to 15% of any workforce will be working remotely at any one time is probably a fair assumption will it be more than that at some companies will it be less? that seems to be somewhere in the neighborhood at least from what i hear from chief executives and other senior executives in terms of their expectations, given what they've seen when it comes to productivity, given what they've seen when it comes to work/life balance, anything you want to go down, any road you want to go down, that's what they sort of

indicated. so it is going to be a change. jim, as well, we talked about it, people businesspeople are not as likely to get on a plane and take a long trip this don't have to. >> pesha said on air it's going to be choice and that's what tim cook is implying you can have the choice whether to go, and i have the choice to book with capacity restrictions, david, i'm taking you. >> you heard it here >> if i'm going inside a restaurant, i'm going to his restaurant >> am i at your table and you're at your table over there is that how we're going to eat [ laughter ] >> just block out some time, guys, because it's going to take a while to get through that meal pretty flattish action here ahead of powell and mnuchin. vix is back below 28 we'll take a quick break

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let's get to stop trading and jim. >> i think one of the most overlooked changes is facebook's concentration on working with small and medium-sized businesses it's not overlooked this morning. hoppen heimer takes its target to 300 and says facebook could be a $25 billion to $50 billion revenue opportunity, that's extraordinary but you know what? it's the way to start your business it is hard to start your business with brick and mortar because when you can only have four or five people in a store, it's an abomination but better to do it on facebook so there you go, positive news, facebook. >> yes, and a remarkable interview with nick klegg in the ft about what they'd do to restrict user content if things got chaotic after the election today, pretty interesting. what's on "mad" tonight? >> okay, we have elf, a terrific little company that does cosmetics. we have jeff gennette and this

is important, because laying off people and how is macy's going to compete in a world where people tend to not want to go to malls and something i'm deeply focused on can i go over one more thing almost 200,000 people died of covid. we may think that i think about it too much. i think i think about it a correct amount, david. >> all right understood >> next show, please >> jim, we'll see you tonight. "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time good tuesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber. seema modi is with us as we await powell and mnuchin on the hill in 30 minutes existing home sales, diana olick. >> reporter: they rose 2.4% so adjusted annualized rate of 6 million units even, a slight miss from what the street was expecting but up 10.5% year over year to the highest pace since december of 2006 or just before

the great recession. now the only thing standing in the way of existing home sales is tight supply. 1.49 million units for sale at the end of august, down 18.6% year over year to just a three-month supply, as a comparison, the last time the sales pace was this high back in 2006, there were more than twice as many homes for sale, so incredibly tight supply, which pushed the median price of an existing home to another record high $310,600, up 11.4% year over year and what's interesting is the high end of the market is really surging sales of luxury homes priced over $1 million up 44% year over year, realtors say their clients are telling them they believe the work from home will still be in place after the pandemic, and that's why they're looking fori with outdoor spaces. sales were strong in the northeast and across the nation. the market is quick, just 22

days to sell a home in august that matches the record which of course was set back in july. so an incredibly strong housing market and it looks likeit is going to continue into the fall. carl >> wow, amazing, diana, stunning numbers. thank you, diana olick on what's happening with existing. in the meantime today fed chair powell and secretary mnuchin will testify in front of the house financial services committee this hour, we'll bring you that in full at the start. stocks are taking a break here in front of that hearing s&p looking to break a four-day losing streak, longest since february ardenny research, brent is the chief investment strategist at northwestern mutual. good morning, guys >> good morning. >> good morning. >> are you expecting, is this going to be warmed over leftovers from last week or could he actually add something new? >> no, i think it's going to be more of the same

they have provided so much additional stimulus to the economy on the monetary side since march 23rd, when they adopted qe forever i suggested that the way to look at it was they decided to, the heck with the babazookas, it's for the b-52 bombers we didn't even bother with helicopter money on top of that, interest rates through zero through 2023, so i don't know if there's much more you can do >> brent, how about crying to congress to do their part i guess to see ostensibly argue, is there any more urgency in that argument, given what some of the case data has said in recent days and certainly some of the cautionary tales that we're getting from europe? >> yes, i suppose that if the cases do continue to rise and the data does fall, that perhaps you may see some more urgency within the fiscal stimulus and i

do think it's important that you point out that the federal reserve does now talk about politics they talk about fiscal policy, that's quite a shift, along with their many other shifts in the past few years so if you think about it, 40 years ago we had the vote to lend that emphasized keeping inflation and moral hazard at bay, along those lines and you have the owen pablo print which downsizes enhancing inflation and letting the economy and importantly the markets run high so i think that is still a big backdrop and still something that's out there as a put for the market and for investors to think about as i contemplate the next few weeks and months. >> ed, this is seema mike wilson of morgan stanley is bullish, put out a note he is expecting a deeper reversal in technology you've been in the camp that it's time to broaden to cyclical growth sectors even energy which offers a dyer dividend yield than the s&p 500 is that a strategy you're still

recommending to clients and do you have the s&p 500 end target of 3500? >> yes 3500 by the end of this year and 3800 by the end of next year we are seei earnings estimates recovering remarkably quickl after a short plunge, so i do think that as we look ahead here, we'll see the economy performing better. look, i realize the virus is still out there, still lots of people that are suffering as a result of it economically at the very least say hi to max, by the way, and bailey, they just came to visit. they love it when i'm on cnbc, but so look at the data we get today on existing home sales that you just reported i think we're going to see that deurbanization is going to provide a lot of stimulus through the housing market that will offset some of the ongoing weaknesses, some of the services

area >> brent, do you think the economic rebound we've seen since march, will that persist if stimulus aid is not passed, and if not, which sectors do you think will hurt the most >> so i guess i like to build upon what ed said and what diana said about housing starts. i think lost in all this discussion about the virus is an economy that is adapting and shifting so we did have huge economic displacement in q1 and q2, but since then i think about it more as replacement that shifted some of the growth around as we have learned to deal with coronavirus. so if you think about it, think about the tech stocks that benefited early on from us staying at home. think about the tech stocks that allow us to do this versus me being there in person traveling via airline. i think this is not our new forever and as the recovery does continue to broaden and perhaps we get a vaccine, i do think you will see those more cyclical sectors do what they typically do, outperform in the beginning of an economic revival and i

think that's kind of coming towards the end of this year into next year >> while i have you, i'd love to get you the on the numbers we got existing median price, 300 grand, up 11%. diana told us the figure year on year for homes worth more than $1 million, 40%. i wonder what kind of, how are you processing those americans who don't own capital, don't own property, don't own stocks, and to what degree are they getting completely excised from economic activity here? >> well unfortunately, the immediate impact of the pandemic is that those are able to work from home continue to get paychecks, are doing well, and many of those people have houses or have the ability to buy a house, and then you have the have nots who were doing extremely well on a relative basis in 2019.

we had some data come out just last week showing that median real household income rose to an all-time record high in 2019 it's a real tragedy here that things were really getting going and with record prosperity for many americans, better off than ever before and we got hit by the pandemic and the setback has been terrible, and the government came in quickly with some support checks and i suspect we may have to wait until after the election to get maybe another round of fiscal stimulus, but it has been a sad, unfortunately dichotomy, but i think as the economy starts to improve, we'll find that we're going to be surprised how quickly things, i don't know if they're going to come back to normal but i think how quickly things do improve, not just for those who are doing well now but for those who have been particularly hard-hit by all this >> right, brent, it does again raise the discussion about the

excess savings that households were able to cobble together as a result of transfer payments during the summer. the question, how long do those last how long can those last if further stimulus is not forthcoming? if a cr is not forthcoming >> i'm watching the personal savings data and it was remarkable it went from $1 trillion annualized data at least consistently annualized so it was $1 trillion before this all hit i think it was around january and then by april, it soared to $6 trillion of an annual rate. people making money couldn't spend it the way they had and people getting checks from the government even they couldn't spend it all, and so there's a big pile up of cash and by july, we were down to $3 trillion, so i reckon there's still enough of this government stimulus that will keep the economy growing probably through september/october, maybe

november and hopefully along the way we'll see employment continue to pick up so the economy can grow on its own without necessarily needing another or at least another big stimulus package >> right that's certainly part of the argument that kudlow tried to put forth yesterday, guys. we appreciate it we'll see what powell and mnuchin say in a few minutes thanks very much >> thank you in the meantime, seema, we know you've been keeping an eye on travel this morning you've got the ceos of marriott, delta and booking.com speaking in the last hour what is the latest >> david, these travel companies are really operating in this strange nexus, preparing for a rise in holiday bookings but also perfecting their lockdown playbook if a second wave does emerge here in the u.s some of the biggest names in travel speaking this morning at the annual skift conference. barry diller of expedia joined us on "squawk box" to talk about the one trend on travel he's bullish on

take a listen. >> one thing we found at expedia, travel is obviously hobbled. we were down worse than 95%. now it's probably down about 60%, which is some improvement but not good enough. the one sector that is up both for our verbo, which is vacational rentals and airbnb is alternative accommodations the only place people are traveling to mostly is where they can drive to and not going to big resorts and things like that they are going to individual places where they feel safe. the inventory is practically gone so that is a very good sign for airbnb it's a good sign for expedia >> and is an opportunistic time for airbnb to push forward with its plans to go public and pushed every travel company david and carl to think about what role they can play in the home segment which continues to stay strong even into the fall and winter, according to the

latest bookings data we reviewed and allowed a marriott to play a role in this space their home and villa segment saw a 700% increase in bookings over the summer moments ago at the skift conference this brings what happens to hotels. the rise in defaults in new york and houston, the hotels are backed by cnbs loans and he said expect nor brand conversions, hotels converting into residential properties, maybe student housing. >> sorenson as well, i know. wow. are the big going toned up getting bigger, or those that can make it through going to be even larger on the other side of this as they add through buying distressed properties? >> m&a will likely be part of the discussion arnie sorenson had the huge deal four years ago acquiring starwood for $13 billion, creating the world's largest

hospitality player if you look at stock performance, marriott has held up better than hilton and hyatt, so you could say perhaps being bigger helps marriott get through this pandemic but demand's got to come back, specifically business travel which at this point is nonexistent. >> indeed, seema i know you know the cruise lines well they're trying to figure out their own protocols and we continue to see some cancellations on the cruise side as well. we'll take a break here, as we await powell and mnuchin and talk tesla as well it's highly anticipated battery day today. we'll check in with bob nardelli what elon musk has in store. stock's down 4%. incomparable design

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tesla trying to recover this morning after dropping sharply yesterday following a tweet by ceo elop musk warning that the technology unveiled during today's battery day event would not reach serious high volume production for another two years. what can we expect from tesla today? ceo bob nardelli, nice to have you. i'm sure excited about battery day the way we all are in all seriously, here we are talking about it what should we be thinking about in the long-term development of the energy sources for vehicles and what musk is at least talking about that could be a process that takes another few

years? >> thank you for having me this morning. i think we all agree elon muss something a brilliant leader wall street investors voted with their dollars if you look at his stock price with his tweet yesterday, dampened the outlook. we've only seen a modest pullback, you mentioned 4% so here is my view he's been in this business since '08 and he has tried to create a market for electric vehicles other brands had a rootest rollout but waiting for the market to develop. we're only 1% to 2% electric vehicles here in the u.s the challenge for ilan e elan, about not a million miles but a million charges for that new battery versus the $500,000.

you think about the cost on the current battery $150 to $200 the challenge is if he gets the increase in capacity for going from up up to a million charges from the 500,000, the same improvement in the cost of the baitry, they'll get more competitive with bust is shun engines. people have the same range anxiety. u.s. market experience, bigger suvs, longer suvs, still a strong truck market, still a strong demand for jeep in this full product climb i that i that's why he may have dampened the spirit for the announcement for the couple years out. he's got to not only get more charges in the battery, but he's got to be able to bring the cost down and compete with the

combustion engine. that's one of the big challenges i see for him. >> yet they have so successful in capturing consumers' enthusiasm in a way other competitors including chrysler but we can go through so many of the maims have not been able to, when it comes to ev. do you think that will change and will that be dependent in part on some of the technology advances you're talking about? >> absolutely, if you read the article and mary bar rah and her direction at general motors, being big isn't always profitable she's taken strategic directions to shrink the overall market they're serving. she made a big commitment to e.b. and certainly get into the battery business you saw joint venturing announced the other day. the other brands are waiting for

a market to develop. the big challenge on this thing, david, is where is the inf infrastructu infrastructure as they start talking about hydrogen now, hybrid models with a hydrogen tank on it, first question i ask is where do you fill the tank, where do you get the hydrogen tank filled elon had a problem with the demand for infrastructure to get the quick charges, each apeoplee still having that problem. when i ride and turn the air conditioner on, it says not sure we can make it to the next charging station so don't drain that battery if he can overcome that with this new technology, if he could ramp it up as he says now by 2022, he's supposed to build 500,000 cars this year i think they've sold 100,000 through the first half, so he's got a way to go. you saw where he tweeted let's have a record third quarter, david. so trying to encourage everybody to get product out he's had a challenge with supply

chain, a little bit of a challenge panasonic batteries so broadened the supply base, one in china, one in hong kong i think he's making the right moves. it speed with which he'll get there. i think there would be a stronger thing when we reduced in '08 here we are in 2020 and modest take-up by the u.s. consumer >> part of that plays into the discussion around competition, bob, not just from quantum scape which is backed by bill gates but legacy automakers like folks wag and general motors pouring billions into the electric vehicle market i'm curious, how does that set the stage for today's event and does this give elon musk an opportunity to set himself apart from the others? >> there's no question, i would agree with that. he's been at it longer, but i'm sure a lot of these companies, i know in chrysler, this goes back to '08-'09, we were looking at battery. we had some prototypes there, but i think there's been a lot of work done, you know, as they

talk about here, i wouldn't discount vw. i wouldn't discount general motors i wouldn't discount some of these others that are working on this technology. so as it develops, they're not out on the bleeding edge, right, so they're going to be able to learn from some of these technologies that have been developed and they'll be able to catch up pretty quickly. they have tremendous resources to be able to pour into this thing, certainly gm has done it, they've switched from the traditional combustion brands and certainly said we're focused on electric vehicles and also trucks so i think the competition in my opinion is going to get much more aggressive, much more competitive than having the single product out there with tesla. that's my opinion going forward, as people start, but again the big challenge is they got to be able to, with gasoline prices where they are today and the u.s. market, where we were at energy independence until the

pandemic, people still love these big combustion engine vehicles >> yep >> no question about it. >> i guess final question then, bob, look out into the future for me it certainly does seem as though the demise of the combustion engine has been greatly exaggerated. if the technology does continue to advance on the battery front, when does the combustion engine really start to go away? how many years are we talking about, do you think? >> i think there's no question, we will convert. the only thing that would make us convert sooner is like china, you mandate and that's why ev sales over there are strong. if the government mandates it like when they had the cafe standard the government can't mandate what cars you're going to buy the u.s. consumer will balk on that so i think certainly by the end of this decade, we'll start to see much more technology, a lot more advances. let's not forget, jci sold their

battery business, so they were trying to get out while the market was still strong. they got a very attractive price for selling that, their entire battery business, because they saw sometime toward the end of this decade that demand for that is going down for the traditional battery. >> bob, thanks for taking some time with us appreciate it. good to see you. >> thank you very much >> bob nardelli. seema, time for our "etf spotlight. i know what you're looking at this morning >> certainly is fixated on technology, david, the technology selects spyder fund ticker xlk up more than 20% in 2020 boosted by the likes of its top holding apple sitting out of yesterday's sell-off, rising another 3%, that stock is doubled in just the last year, a lot more "squawk on the street" still ahead. stay with us ♪

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welcome back i'm sue herera here is your cnbc news update at this hour. the justice department announcing a crackdown on illegal opioid trafficking on the internet 1,100 pounds of drugs have been seized, much of them in the

united states. in southern california the bobcat fire is threatening a thousand homes and containment fallen to 13%. five of the seven largest wildfires in california state history are active right now tropical storm beta turning some floods rivers in galveston. it will move into louisiana, arkansas and mississippi later in the week. michael bloomberg raised more than $16 million to help florida felons pay off fines and court fees so they can vote in the presidential election. the money is enough to help more than 30,000 registered voters. you are up to date that's the news update this hour carl, back to you. >> all right, sue, thanks very much a bit of a choppy start to the trading day as weigh wait fed chair powell and the treasury secretary on the hill. we want to check in with steve liesman as we get headlines from

others like evans, steve >> yes, carl they will take to the hill today amid growing pessimism on wall street that congress can reach a deal for the phase four relief bill one issue is the debate for the new relief bill and second is the impact of the deficit and third, whether or not the fed and the treasury are using existing funds as well as they might. both officials will tell the house financial services committee the economy has improved but are going to link those gains to the aggressive government spending and the trillions of dollars of loans from the fed and the fed purchases. powell will say in his statement household spending looks to have recovered about three-40s of its earlier decline, likely owing in part to federal stimulus payments and expanded unemployment benefits. mnuchin for his part will add that some industries hit hard by the pandemic still require additional relief. his statement says i believe a

targeted package is still needed and the administration is ready to reach a bipartisan agreement. but the hearing takes place a day after the new figures from the congressional budget office estimate federal debt hitting 98% of gdp this year, rising to 104% in 2021, 195% by 2050, driving up debt service cost to nearly a third of gdp from a fifth, we'll see if some legislators get deficit religion yesterday st. louis fed president james bullard told bloomberg enough stimulus was provided but question whether the money congress appropriated is put to best use treasury earmarked $75 billion to back stop a total of $600 billion of loans from the main street lending facility. powell will tell congress just $2 billion from the main street lending facility in loans are approved or in the pipeline, carl >> interesting, steve.

there's so much emphasis right now on getting congress to move on a package but year end unemployment rate targets have been, seems to be creeping down. i see evans on the tape right now looking at 7 to 7.5. >> yes, the trouble with that, carl, and those are definitely much better numbers, but remember, you know, we hit 10% in the great financial crisis the numbers of people is still very large 7% is better than the 9% or 10% forecast but still pretty bad ok j objectively speaking >> remember we used to get tweets from the president and complaining rates were too high? we haven't had those in a long time those were the days. i'm curious when it comes to rates, you mentioned the cbo

numbers, 2050, as we look at treasury secretary mnuchin, masked above their nose, well done, gentlemen, how do you ever get rates up at all even at these number as much as a third of revenues some day in the future >> that's a big question the fed doesn't make impact on the federal budget, it makes decisions based upon what the economy needs and inflation and employment outlets would be a major constraint to raising rates, you're right. the market is not raising rates either how much is the fed really depressing rates here by keeping rates low? tell me what and where the market would place rates right now given the outlook, the outlook for inflation and economic growth, if the fed wasn't doing the things that's

doing. >> that's a good point, steve. obviously we'll talk to you throughout the testimony this morning, steve liesman, thanks so much. in the meantime, is the stock market rooting for the president or nominee joe biden our next guest thinks neither, writing that wall street is not as partisan as you might think, in his latest op-ed for the "new york times." chief global strategist rosheer sharma is here with us >> thanks, good to be back >> you write your research going back quite a long time finds that the market has no clear bias in favor of either party. >> exactly so i think that if you look at the historical data, the strongest evidence that i find if you look at political patterns is that what matters more is energy than ideology so there are nine instances of a president having served two full

terms over the last 150 years or so what i find in the nine instances the resident delivered very strong returns in the first term and the second term the returns were a third of what the stock market delivered in the first bill and the only exception was ronald reagan. this is the key point, it really does not matter who is in office because a democrat or republican as well, the returns under a democrat president were slightly higher than the returns we've seen under a republican president historically what wall street really cares about is if you have a fresh face, you get some new energy and this is just one of the many factors that determines stock market returns >> how are investors reacting to the tax policy and the implications for earnings will, in fact, affect the trajectory of the market?

>> right, i think that's just unone element. there are some offsetting factors and the flavor of the season, mmt, this sort of wall street would love to have even easier money, if that's possible, and the rise in probability of getting mmt under biden, so i think the offsetting factor that that policy would be negative for the stock market. on the other hand, the trade policy and even monetary policy could be easier under a biden presidency, so i think that really what's happening on wall street just now is that if you look at all the past election that we've done a lot of research on this, shows there were three months before the presidential election you always get apick-up in volatility, an the moment the election is over,

regardless of almostw.h. who wi, volatility dies down that's the pattern over the last three weeks. >> it's seema. i understand the his torqual context you're referencing, the volatility before a presidential election completely normal at what point do the larger swings express concerns about what we're seeing in the polls >> i don't think that the market has been very sensitive to the polls because the market has rising right through the summer months when biden was at the widest lead over trump over the last fee weeks you haven't seen the market react to that even though the probability of trump has inched up over the last few weeks i don't think the market is very sensitive to who's winning and that's the point of the op-ed i wrote. the market wants the election to get out of the way

the biggest fear is a contested election the continued volatility than really who wins on november of the election is announce >> your thoughts will weather a bipartisan bill? >> the probability of that is declining, and i still see it as remarkable i think carl alluded to this, that the day ta has been coming in a lot better than expected, even though the level is still very depressed, it has surprised a lot of the upside consistently over the last few months i think the motivation for passing a fresh stimulus and also with the increased polarization, it is quite possible that we don't have a plan in place until november the most important part of the market we don't go into reverse, into some lockdowns.

that is what hurts sentiment but as long as we go through this phase where the economy opens up and we have a vaccine coming through, i don't think the market will be that perturbed not getting a stimulus, as long as the economy is on the upside which it has consistently done over the last few months >> but you do believe that if we have an election result that is not clear or is made not clear or constitution at crisis of some kind that we are going to have more volatility until such things is resolved or will there always be a discount if we go through the worst of it, as some people fear? >> i feel until it's resolved you'll keep getting some volatility but i feel there is a sure way of expressing this is through the dollar i feel the dollar has been important and aims to move in the long-term cycles and i think that for the next few years we're in a cycle where the

dollar is likely to depreciate the dollar could be one place where the crisis plays out more in terms of the negative effect on the dollar and for a while the stock market volatile and the past patterns indicate the moment we have a result, the volatility dies down and people then begin to figure out okay, which sectors will do well, which sectors will not do well but overall, their impact on the market of the election result i think will be quite limited. >> rushir as you is ai in your piece, more than anything, the market just wants the election to be over it's a good create everybody should take a look at it thanks as always >> thanks, kral, always gocarl,o be here. >> the hearing has begun with the committee chairman and ranking member making their opening statements, as chair powell and treasury secretary mnuchin listen he's little a little coffee. we'll take a quick break

first thoughts on the other side stay restless

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just a few minutes until the fed chair and financial secretary testifies. we have bob pisani and mike santoli. some choppy reaction in front of it >> the market is trying to figure out if yesterday's low just about a 10% drop in the s&p

and a little bit of a lift off of that was decisive or respite. i think what's interesting about this pullback in stocks is not associated with a flare-up in the macro stress concerns. the ten-year yield just yawned when stocks were at the highs and they pulled back a little bit of widening in credit spreads so you're seeing the effect of the equity market unsetmented in there but it's interesting we're not focused on the fiscal support package which the market diminished expectations of and leaning on the idea of bulge in consumer savings and can carry things on in the aggregate for a while >> bob t seems like going into this, the fed chair is going to ask congress to try to put together a package, the democrats and the house, which this is, are going to try to argue we did about 120 days ago, and it's up to the senate now. >> yes, i think the most important thing everyone should

bear in mind about the fed is the fact they said we'll keep rates near zero through 2023 is the most important thing for the markets. that's one of the main drivers of why the markets are still holding up you can argue about whether it's good for the markets that the fed's now emphasizing employment a little bit over inflation. my sense is that it is good for the markets up until a certain point, where if inflation gets too high towards 4% or higher the market gets more concerned the interesting debate about this is powell says the economy needs more fiscal stimulus, bullard said yesterday he didn't think so that's a very interesting debate to have. i can assure you, carl, if powell came out and said what bullard said that i don't think we need more fiscal stimulus the market would view that negatively those market participants i talk to believe not only the fed stimulus but the fiscal stimulus really has mattered a lot for the markets. >> steve, more comments from marriott ceos about furloughs

turning into additional losses without federal relief how quickly could the unemployment picture change? >> very quickly. again the jobless claims which people say is good news i don't see as good news we're doing 860,000 a week new jobless claims on the comment of what bob pi san see was saying there is an old quote wrongly committed to churchill which is that after exhausting all other possibilities america gets around to doing the right thing. i think what's going to have to happen here relative to the debate about do we or don't we need stimulus is we have to see the economy go the wrong way, which is that we've had a very, very strong third quarter, and now we've seen some indicators slowing some of the retail numbers were not good. they were just up 0.6. a lot of the things that came bang very quickly now those growth rates are mooed ra moderg i don't hope this happens.

i think congress is going to get the fire lit underneath them to do the right thing here or to do what needs to be done until the numbers turn south, and i'm not sure that the market is going to, market i think is prospectively saying we need this money but they don't seem overly exercised about it. >> goldman sachs in recent days, bob, said the failure to pass any additional fiscal measures would lead them to downgrade estimates. is that baked into q3 profit estimates already? >> no, it hasn't, nor has a notable downturn remember, the market, one of the reasons the market's holding up is the opposite is happening with earnings and for the third quarter, earnings have been going up, that san unusual thing to happen. normally analysts are optimistic and have to reduce numbers as you go into the quarter. the opposite is happening this quarter. we've seen earnings increase for the s&p about 4%, that's very unusual. normally they decrease 3%. so there's a roughly 7% swing in

the earnings estimates on the historical averages, in favor of increasing them. that's a real back stop for the markets. fourth quarter is what i'm really watching now, and so far, the numbers have been pretty modest, not changing an awful lot but if they do, that's going to be another sign the market's holding up to steve's point, yes, fiscal stimulus is a lot more likely if the market heads south, but i still maintain that as mr. mnuchin, excuse me, if mr. powell were to change his tune and talk about the idea we don't need fiscal stimulus, the markets would view that negatively when the economy was heading south or not >> that's not going to happen, and i think it's instructive as to why, bob, because powell has maintained all along that the bigger risks here are worse outcomes, not better outcomes. he has been urging congress, really sort of jawboning the market here, i know mike santoli

is listening to that close part of it to say look, you may be sure how things are going to come out here, but we're not so sure the fed has been concerned about a second wave. the fed has been concerned about starring the fed is much more, really wants congress and it's orienting its own policy towards preparing for worse outcomes, if better outcomes come prepare foe outcomes right now it thinks that both congress and the fed should be prepared for worse outcomes here >> mike, turning back to the market itself, the president is up about .1% tesla getting hit hard what do you tell people in terms of the pull back for the merga cap names. how does that compare, the percentage loss, and whether or not we put in a bottom >> i think the process is prey far along. the process is not just going to one moment, but i think most of

it has been to unwind, the stretched parts of the market, they went down much more than the s&p did. yesterday was interesting because the sell off broadenned out a little bit i think it is instrumental if you want to put in a low to know there is no safe place to hide it felt a little intuitive to people so i think this process is pretty far along, if it's not really about a new macro risk that the market is fixated on, it doesn't seem to be. it doesn't seem like that much more than an equity centric pull back >> we look there at secretary mnuchin awaiting his and chair pou powell's early statements here we talk about the likelihood or the lack there of, what do you

point out for the strongest arguments of why we need something to come and soon >> i think the expiration is a big deal small business is left high and dry here they had good assistance at the beginning. there is a lot of programs with the program. don't think they off set the benefits provided to a lot of businesses i think also a problem with the ppe loan social security that it required employers to maintain their employees. i think a key here is that there is small businesses that don't have the credit they need to keep the doors open for when the virus could relent and the economy could be open. there is plenty of individual industries out there, the music industry is once close to my heart that comes to mind that have not have argumenttargeted .

other travel industries that were not helped as much as they could have been. plus the fed needs to get this money out the door $600 million could go to the economy, but there is concern that it's not taking asmuch risk for that money as it could be dictated by the treasury. steve, i know that schumer is pushing a measure that would be targeting toward broadway, new york, and the theater community. >> i should point that out >> yeah, mike, i love your -- m mike, you know i love your mystery broker that you talk to. the unnamed source you said is back in buy mode. >> he got it, he says it might not be lower, it stretches lower, but the risk and reward look better. >> o we're fully committed to

getting every american back to work as quickly as possible. america is in the midst of the fastest recovery the economy gained back 10.6 million since from and nearly 50% of all jobs since the pandemic it is a note abable achievement thanks to the program's provided by the cares act we never got close to that figure i believe we will see tremendous growth in the third quarter fuelled by strong retail sales, housing starts, home sales, manufacturing growth, and increased business activity. the september blue chip survey projects close to 24% for a third quarter gtb. the recovery has been strong, busy, and the administration and congress are working together on a bipartisan basis to deliver the largest economic relief

package in american history. the federal reserve has been stu instrumental to the recovery economic reopenings combined with the cares act enable us to have an economic rebound some companies require additional relief. the president and i remain committed to to the process. i believe a targeted package is still needed and the administration is ready to reach a bipartisan agreement treasury has been working hard to implement the cares act with transparency and accountability. we released a significant amount of information on our website, treasury.gov and u usaspending.gov. we released more information than required by the statute the federal reserve also posted information regarding the

lending facilities we provided regular updates to congress marking my sixth appearance before congress for a cares act hearing. we're cooperating with various oversite bodies, the treasury inspector general. the new congressional oversight commission and the g.a.o we appreciate congress's interest in the issues and devoted significant resources to responding we commit to working with you to accommodate congress's legislative needs and a full government approach. i would like to thank the members of the committee for working with us to provide economic support to the american people thank you. >> thank you, secretary mnuchin. chair powell you're not recognized for five minutes to present your testimony. thank you for the opportunity to update you on our

ongoing issues to address the hardship brought by the pandemic the federal reserve is working to alleviate the economic fallout. you remain committed to using our tools to do what we can for as long as it takes to ensure that the recovery will be as strong as possible and to limit lasting damage to the economy. economic activity picked up from the depressed second quarter level when much of the economy was shut down to stem the virus. many economic indicators show expanded unemployment benefits the housing sector rebounded and there are signs of improvement in a labor market, 22% of johns have been regained both employment and overall economic activity, hour, remain

below their prepandemic levels it has not fallen equally on all americans, those able to bare the burden have been least expected the reversal of economic fortune upended many lines and created uncertainty about the future a full recovery is likely to come when people are confident that they can engage in a full range of activities. since mid march we have taken forceful action increasing asset holdings, and standing up to 13 emergency lending fmts we took these measures to more broader financial conditions and the support to households, businesses of all sizes.

our actions together have unlocked more than a trillion dollars of funding which, in turn, helped keep organizations from shuttering, putting them in a better position to keep workers on, and to hire them back as the economy continues to recover. the main street lending program has been smaller firms that rely on banks for loans rather than public credit markets. main street is designed to increase the credit to small and medium businesses. we have solicited public comment with lenders and borrowers of all sieszes. we have made adjustments to nonprofit organizations such as sessional institutions, hospitals, and organizations they have either completed

registration or they in the process of doing so. about 230 loans totall$230 loany t $2 billion have been funded or in the pipeline. businesses that were on a sound footing before the pandemic and had long-term prospects, but they are not able to get return on reasonable loans. main street loans may not be the right help for some businesses our fits have improved conditions broadly the evidence suggests that most credit worthy small and medium sized businesses can get loans many of the programs rely on emergency lending powers that require the support of the treasury department and are available only in unusual circumstances. by serving as a backstop to key credit markets, our programs

have significantly increased the