tv Fast Money CNBC September 22, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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analysts expected, sales higher in almost every single region and digital growth of 82%. we'll listen to the call for guidance we'll see how competent they are in seeing these trends and momentum continuing. >> kb homes up i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money" guy adami, tim seymour, dan nathan and bonawyn eison. our team is plugged in and ready to break down all the big headlines. plus we are following nike, that stock soaring as the company's earnings call gets underway. carav we start off with a tuesday turn around stocks pushing higher with tech once again taking the lead
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the nasdaq gaining 1.7%. there could be a big threat bubbling underneath this market. president trump and chinese president xi jinping both dialing up the rhetoric today at the u.n. general assembly. >> reporter: president trump has often used his annual speeches at the u.n. general assembly to challenge his adversaries, whether it's the nuclear regimes in iran and north korea or for the second year running china, which he took direct aim at in his speech this year that was prerecorded despite consummating a trade deal with china in january. at this year's virtual diplomatic gathering, the speeches were prerecorded and shorter than usual, but president trump pulled no punches against china, which he accused of letting citizens leave the country and infect others and accused it of withholding information about the virus. >> the chinese government and the world health organization,
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which is virtually controlled by china falsely declared that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission. later they falsely said people without symptoms would not spread the disease the united nations must hold china accountable for their actions. >> following shortly after trump in the program was president xi jinping who both at the u.n. and d davos has extolled the virtues of globalization >> all countries are closely connected and they share a common future.
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the two countries also went toe to toe to the extent that you can in prerecorded barbs on clima climate. notably missing which we always get at the unga are the cut shots of the audience members so you understand a little bit more about how the speeches are being received because we didn't get that this year, it's hard to know how some of those remarks landed, but certainly as i mentioned before no punches being pulled. >> tim seymour, i'll go to you in earlier years you were known as the ambassador for good reason what do you make of the u.s. and china right now and how it could impact the markets.
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this beating on china is a bipartisan issue right now going into an election season. china certainly has to push back based upon huawei and the tiktok dynamic. if the shoe was on the other foot, can you imagine how this would be perceived here? we're focused on the factors that are probably more important to the market right now which are covid-19 and fed liquidity china will be important to the growth story still. >> why do you think the markets are so enured to what's going on here >> the market hasn't cared i think tim hit the nail on the head on why the market hasn't been concerned whatsoever. the market seems to think, correctly or otherwise, that somehow there's this fed backstop and liquidity overrides everything, which probably is true it probably is that simple, but the rhetoric is continuing to be ratcheted up
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you get a point where it's the straw that broke the camel's back the rhetoric today out of the u.n. general assembly, virtual or not, is just one more escalation, in my opinion. at a certain point, i think the market should care clearly, i thought it would care months ago and that hasn't been the case >> we saw the markets basically melt up, go higher since mnuchin and powell left their seats on capitol hill there's a veritable potpourri of reasons to be skeptical of the markets and yet there keeps being dip buyers out there why do you think that is and would you be one as well >> it's really a matter of the best of the worst. we talked about the pandemic, how it's having a global effect. we talked about the global rate. we talked about some of the push and pull between manufacturing data we talked about the differences
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between large and small businesses you have all these dynamics coming into play people are pointing to the fed, to the fiscal stimulus we had, ease of debt and saying these are the things that are going to continue to drive us higher. i personally think the risk/reward is to the downside doesn't necessarily mean i'm a market seller. just at some point you do have to start taking chips off the table whether it's putting in stocks, buying puts, whatever. the vix is telling you something. i think you do buy dips. however, given that you've seen apple move 10% intraday, what has been a historical pullback, i think you need to double or triple that and take into account the increased volatility that we're seeing on both the down and the upside. >> it's funny. i mean, just kind of keying off what bonawyn said, the volatility in some of these big market leaders, apple melted up in the month of august
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it went from 95 to $138. it fell like a straight line and then it went from 138 on september 2nd. i think the low yesterday was maybe 102 or 103 it gave you an opportunity to get back in. it basically filled in the entire gap from earnings and the move afterwards. i'll say this. i think we're probably in a market, given all the headwinds going back to the issues with china that the market doesn't care, they might care at a certain point. they might care about the election they might care there's no more fiscal stimulus until after the election who knows what about the debt ceiling. there's a lot of stuff out there and maybe that's priced in after the selloff that we've had but it does feel like we're probably going to see sellers on rallies. the down trend even in the s&p 500 is very sharp, so we might be in a situation where it's one step forward, two steps back because of the uncertainty and also because of how far we've come in a short period of time
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i'm not saying sell, sell, sell, but it really feels like the tide has changed a little bit, especially the forces that pushed us higher over the spring and summer are really not in pla place. >> do you think that the u.s./china tensions are any worse than they were six months ago? >> that's a good question. i don't think there's been any indication that the long-term trend for strategic competition has changed. in fact, i think in some ways they've only doubled down this approach there has been some notable changes. the chinese have changed their
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tune diplomatmatical maically be are largely to increase its resilience y to the long-term competition with the u.s there's been no signal that the chinese are not willing to compete long-term. they're frankly concerned about a potential biden election that might make other countries more open to u.s. overtures to gang up against china or try and force china economically and politically to change some of its behavior to answer your question, i don't see this relationship getting any better over the long-term. just some slight tweaks tactically here in the near term. >> you think beijing would prefer a trump administration mainly because they think biden would be tougher when it comes to trade and other issues. >> unclear but we certainly know that the
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chinese diplomatic offensive -- look, we had three trips to europe here over the last two months culminating with xi jinping's virtual meeting with angela merkel. so they are concerned about biden really changing the america first approach, which china has benefitted greatly from as we've stepped away from our strategic and traditional allies yes, i do think they're concerned about biden. but they also would like to see a calmer, more predictable relationship and they think biden would provide that trump is, in their minds, hard to predict and hard to plan against. all of these steps are really about securing beijing's ability to compete long-term with a trump or a potential biden administration >> thanks so much for your insightful commentary. we've been speaking quite a bit about the effect that increased u.s. tensions might have on the likes of apple, et cetera.
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would you give me an idea of a few other companies that you think might have headline risk here on this front >> it's a good question. i think there are several areas that i would be concerned about if i was in the emerging new technology space this is a place where both countries have put in place expert control laws, and so the are in effect decoupling through regulation and law if you're in semiconductors, for example, i would be extremely concerned about that if you have supply chains anywhere along that supply chain, i would be concerned about that we've seen cotton and tomatoes on the agricultural side these are high risk areas if you're in these sectors or in this particular location and i would be concerned about that. i'd rather go there to specific
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companies but there are some real sectors here at risk. >> thank you tim seymour, he mentioned semiconductors we all know that is a risk to china/u.s. relations yet, that hasn't fazed the sectors. >> i think if anyone should be at risk here, it's apple the question to be asked is at what point is apple going to be a target when you consider the attacks on chinese companies that, again, maybe rightfully have come from over here but there's no question that tencent is one of the most strategically important chinese
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companies in the world n that's the one i would be more fearful of pushing around than huawei. >> tim >> the trump administration is correct to push back on this, but i'm not concern that forced technology transfer, you know, to combat forced technology transfer, which is really what they're trying to do with the bytedance/tiktok thing, is the way to do it when you think about it, our major innovative companies, facebook, amazon, google, they do not have access to china. that is a huge, huge market here all those companies are facing regulatory risks here in the u.s. something really does need to be done here, because our companies are desperate to get in there and the rules need to be fairer. and i actually do think they should be more worried about a biden administration than they are about a trump administration over the next four years the point he makes about pulling out of tpp and having this weird
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unilateral relationship with them has really been beneficial to china as they expand in their belt and road process with the long game here and we're just in chaos. i think they prefer the chaos. as a country, we need to protect our companies, protect our technology and really have a much more multilateral approach to this whole process. it just can't be one off and it can't be chaos like we have right now. >> we have an earnings alert on nike shares soaring as the company's call kicks off >> this is a blowout quarter the company's ceo just giving his opening remarks on the conference call with analysts talking about how it's really innovation that drove the growth and the better than expected performance in nike, talking up some product hits, which is always how nike opens its conference call. for instance, they launched a new yoga collection that he says is driving incredible growth and
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they've gained share during the pandemic in key markets in u.s. in nike and jordan the big news on the conference call usually comes when the cfo takes over and announces guidance, if they are providing that the epf came in almost double what analysts were expecting as far as sales, they were also better than expected, but know that nike is not immune from the pandemic and the consumer slowdown we've seen globally, still down 1% overall. the biggest highlight as far as the sales number was digital continues to soar, up 82% for nike digital some context around that number, last quarter that number was a little bit lower, around 80% that was during the pandemic when things were shut down the momentum there has continued. this has grown to be about a third of the overall business. it was a goal they set for 2023, happened two years before that china numbers back to growth, rising 6% as that country has
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come back online north american sales were down 2% analysts were expecting double digits as far as the impact here, traffic is down according to nike in the release because of safety related measures. they can't open the stores at the normal capacity, but they did say that's been partially upset by higher conversion, which is retailspeak for fewer visits to the store but people are paying higher money. they have higher purchasing intent when they come into the store. hopes were high going into this report it's up more than 9%, trading at new record highs as the conference call goes on. >> hopes were high going in, but not high enough. it's amazing how off the analyst community was off when it comes
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to nike. they were expecting a ten times bigger decline than what they actually posted. >> yeah. what i will say is these same analysts missed it on the downside a couple quarters ago it's been a hard one to gauge. with that said, i think across this desk we've been very bullish in nike. this is a stock that seems to be impervious to the broader market and what's going on in china if you look at the numbers, sg and a was much better. their inventory build was up about 15%, but that's offset by their sales growth the only thing you can say negative about nike at these levels is valuation. but that's what you've been able to say for the last couple of years. literally, ever since that little bit of a hiccup in terms of the stock price around the
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colin kaepernick news a couple years ago, this stock has been a monster. i think you stay long against the previous high, which i think was 120 and change. >> this has been one bright spot in retail for sure they're selling the exact right things at the exact right time with a strong brand. also lululemon announced it was going to resume share buybacks, which is also a sign of confidence in its outlook. >> overall retail, i still think it struggles i'm not past the whole covid-19 thing. i just don't think that going into stores and consuming in historical fashion is coming back in the ways that we know it now, what sticks out to me about this earnings call is the digital platform, the commitment to that and the pull forward of revenue off of that. i think that's what you're seeing at walmart, target, home depot. all of these retailers that have done well you've seen a commitment to that online business >> tim, quick comment as a
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shareholder? >> 35 times 2022 might get a lot cheaper after you see the upgrades on the street that number may not be sustainable. that's the emphasis here in this digital. i think this is not a quick comment so i'll say i think the spending power of the consumer is going higher as they get out of the urban centers. shares of kb homes on the rsve in the after hours. fit, the one chart flashing a major buy signal for tech. we're going off the charts with chris varrone. ♪
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our next guest says there may be bullish signs flashing for the tech trade chris varrone, what are you looking at >> we start with the s&p and put this in a little bit of context. s&p down 10% from the highs. that's a pretty good drawdown. but what we've seen over the last several days is a sign this correction is starting to run its course yesterday55% of the s&p trade to a one-month low. that's a pretty good signal you're getting close to some ka capitulation type low.
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when you get this spike in 20-day lows, believe it or not your forward returns over the next three to six months tend to be very, very good, well above the historical numbers we have this spike in 20-day lows it's reflective of some indiscriminate selling under the surface. we think that sets us up for some kind of a tradeable low if we narrow down tech and growth, how quickly sentiment toward the qs has really flipped. you've had $4 billion of outflow from the qs over the last several weeks. you've seen liquidation in the etf flows. i think somewhere in that $10,300 range on the nasdaq 100 is going to prove to give good support. i want to give you two names roku, big base it has spent the better part of the last two years in a range that has just started to break
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out here it got above that key 175 level. we think 250 is the target here long-term. if you look at salesforce, we know how strong that momentum driven breakout was in august. the stock rallied hard on that, but it was on really big volume. this correction is very benign, no real damage done under the surface. we think both those names are good ways to play this trade >> guy, which chart do you like? >> well, i mea-- the bigger the base, the higher in outer space or some damn thing he threw it out there. roku, i know dan likes to okay boomer me. he has fricasseed me a number of
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times. nbc comcast and peacock signing a deal with roku the stock exploded to the upside i think it closed 197 today. that's the one i think they report in early november it sounds preposterous but i think you stay with this thing until early november. >> you can throw roku on the scrap heap of tech media hardware that this is going to go away someday very soon. i've definitely been a skeptic of this as far as the technology i will just tell you i think it's set up in the salesforce.com makes sense if you are bullish, if you thought that drawdown over the last couple of weeks was enough, then you go back to names like salesforce, same thing with microsoft, got back to 200, play it back to 230 you know, there's plenty of trading opportunities.
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buying at those prior breakout levels at that support and trade against that support. >> bonawyn, what's your favorite chart there? >> i will say roku i like crm roku clearly up 20% yesterday on the back of the news definitely bullish there what i will say is i have a hard time thinking there's a lot more to go on the upside until november so if you're going to trade them, trade hem. make sure you have levels in mind and trade them. in terms of retrenching, i don't think this is the right time here's what's next on "fast money." >> tesla is billing it as one of the most important days in the company's history, but will battery day deliver the goods? what we can expect from the event just about to get underway and speaking of cars, shares of carvana are hitting all-time highs. we'll tell you what's behind the move that's what my dad does.
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welcome back to "fast money. happening right now, tesla is kicking off its first-ever battery day. let's get to phil lebeau with more on what we can expect. >> it's going to start in a couple of minutes. they have just wrapped up the tesla annual meeting pretty much routine, nothing unusual there. all of the board-recommended votes in terms of the five proposals out there, it all went that way in terms of this battery day, really there are three things that the analysts are focused on in terms of what they're expecting to happen during this
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event. one, as they layout the battery developments out there, lower cell costs how much lower will it go well below $100 and will they give a dollar amount greater cell production capacity not only from tesla but also working with their suppliers will they say they are developing or have developed a million mile battery that would be a heck of a breakthrough if that's what the announcement is. the key thing people are focused on here, it's all about cost you will hear a lot of people talk about range and some of the other developments when it comes to battery production, but if they can maintain their lead in terms of battery cost, that's what analysts will be focused on again, the battery day presentation expected to begin in about five minutes or so. the people who are there, shareholders who won a raffle to be there because they want to
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have social distancing, elon musk is on a stage in freemont, california they are all in teslas whenever he would say something, they would honk their horns. >> i'm sure with the air filtration system going as well. >> sure. >> we should note that prior to battery day, shareholder day is happening. let's get more on all of what has gone on so far this afternoon. let's get to
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>> i think that's been the biggest near term take-away. but i also want to frame in the significance of today. i think it is an important day i think today starts a slow page turn from tesla being an auto tech company to an energy tech company. i recognize that may come across as tone deaf for many investors, this idea of being an energy tech company that's really the substance about what we're going to hear about battery day, is the energy piece of this is critical to ramping production of evs. they need to increase production by 28 times of batteries in the next decade to hit their targets, 28 massive increase we're going to hear how they're going to do that when you increase battery production by that much, it k e pushes costs down and tesla will use that to their advantage,
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lowering the price of the vehicles i think investors are going to leave today with a long-term sense that if they thought traditional auto was in a tight spot, i think they'll think it's in an even tighter spot. >> that's an interesting notion, an energy or battery tech company. how do the metrics with which you measure tesla, how does that change that no longer vehicles per year or vehicles per quarter. what does it become and why is this any different from traditional auto makers developing more fuel efficient engines? could they be considered energy tech companies >> no. i think gasoline engines are going to be a thing of the past. in the next decade we expect the market share to be 40% it's 3% of total cars sold there is no hope long-term for gas. it's going to go away. i think in terms of how investors should ultimately measure this, it's about revenue
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growth the importance about being an energy tech company is it opens up massive addressable markets for example, on the battery side alone, we think about traditional auto if tesla is able to have 25% global car share, that is a huge number think about gm at 15%. that's the highest one let's say they get to that 25% that basically implies they'll do about 650 billion in revenue. if this is viewed as an energy tech company, the stock will likely trade at a multiple of that revenue right now it's about a $400 billion market cap one other piece when you think about your question about what's the substance of this, it sounds nice, energy tech company, but what's the substance of it it is, again, getting to theseus one is around transportation, the other is renewable energy in terms of batteries in the home or at the grid scale i think this is going to be the piece that will progressively
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emerge in the months ahead tesla taking technology they have mastered in building cars and applying that to new markets. phil talked about the filtration systems. they have a great opportunity to get into hvac and change how homes are heated and cooled. these are examples of energy problems that tesla can help solve. >> obviously elon musk with that webinar or podcast he did when he was smoking weed. that was probably the trough but he really seems to have grown into the role of ceo am i making too much out of this because i thought the existential risk is that he would fail and he seems to be flourishing. is that the upside for tesla >> it's a big part of it i'm a pragmatic person when i see that behavior, i'm always cautious that it can reemerge i think from an investor perspective, they should assume that elon is going to be doing
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some things that are out of bounds in the years ahead. you think apple starts to the second when they have a meeting. the precision is just quite remarkable for tesla to even get close to starting on time, which they did today, is a step that elon is growing up we have to give him credit where it's due i think at the end of the day when you're talking about changing these markets, you really want somebody who has those first order principles elon is the person to lead the company. >> gene great to get your take gene munster bonawyn, what do you think, is the stock viable >> if you believe the story, yes, it is am i personally buying it here i mean, i'm not. but i've missed a lot of the move clearly i've been wrong, but i'm
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not here to chase tops and advise other people to do that if you definitely buy into the battery story, the length of the battery, the time of the battery, the cheapness of the battery and what the new adjustable market will be for battery operated utilities, then yes, i can definitely see the thing trending much higher, but i don't understand that well enough i don't have my pulse on that. for those reasons, i'm not buying right here. >> we have a news alert on p palantir. >> those plans are changing. palantir going to commence trading on september 30th. our interest in this company, it provides software that allows customers to integrate volumes of disparate data, everything
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from images to spreadsheets into this central platform where it can be analyzed and excerpted securely again the news here, palantir will commence trading on the nyse september 30th. >> dan, what do you think? >> i'll just throw this in with some of the action we saw last week at one point snowflake was a $90 billion market cap unity software made a massive run today. palantir is going to perform a lot of portfolio managers have to make room for all these new issuances. i think that has something to do with the nasdaq weakness we've seen over the last couple of weeks. there's been a lot of issuance these are high valuation names
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>> we haven't talked about the source of funds argument, tim, in quite some time here we are in this market >> yeah. i think it's important chris varrone did a great job talking about the outflows and the triple qs. amazon moved 8.8% in 450 minutes over two days. of course this palantir ipo is going to go well they are the top of the food chain of the top of the food chain. there's nothing in the market right now that says this ipo won't do well in my view i'm someone that still believes that tech can correct down lower, even though i think i'm really clear that the overall liquidity dynamics for the market are not going away any time soon. >> coming up, the home sweet home trade kb on the move will the hot housing trade keep up
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welcome back to "fast money. take a look at shares of kb home touching after hours lows after reporting results. >> reporter: kb home specializes in entry level properties on the lower end of the price scale new orders up 27% annually the california based builder saw growth in all four geographic regions. its average sale price goclose o $380,000 they experienced a solid increase in their share of
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millennial buyers. they're also seeing buyers spend more to personalize their homes. he added that the fires in the west could cause delivery delays and that might be what's weighing on the stock. they expect 5 billion in revenue 2021 new orders in the first three weeks of this month were up 32% annually the cancellation rate improved from 17% to 12 also important to note that while they put a hold on buying land in q-2 due to the uncertainty of the pandemic, they have resumed land acquisition and development to bolster the pipeline for the future >> diana, thank you. guy, do you buy that argument in terms of the fires delaying deliveries as to why the stock is lower they will be delivered it just may not be in the time frame they thought, but maybe in a quarter or so.
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>> i think i buy it in the fact that maybe the machines are interpreting that and that's why the stock is lower today's high up $40.86 smack to the level we saw back in february of effectively the same price. we've talked about kb home having trouble and being the laggard of the big three, dhi and lennar as sha we need to give a wide berth in terms of the potential for a double top i'm really interested. you want to buy in breakout but it's struggling at $41 i think the way to play it is with lennar and dhi. they continue to show outperformance >> i'd love to know how guy
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would customize his house, what he would do. >> an arts and crafts room, i'm sure, things like that. >> yep >> do you have a comment on the stock? >> oh me >> yeah, you >> okay. sorry. ultimately it's hard to tell with the mannerisms on the show here i didn't know if you were talking to me. bottom line, the housing trade continues. we're in a housing bubble. but i think the home builders have some ways to go i would not be playing it through the home builders, though i would be playing it through component parts, things like hvac or appliances or materials. wea we've really just begun. with rates at these levels, these trades are going higher. >> guy, you have your hand raised. >> i'd like to respond to tim in terms of how i would customize my house i would install both a pool and a pond and the pond would be
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excellent for tim. >> thank you. >> is that a quote from a movie? >> it is, actually. >> i'll take your word for it. up next is carvana bringing nirvana to wall street why investors are driving into this car company plus, time to go apple picking one options trader is betting this tech stock has more juice left in its rally. hill battle in my career. so when i heard about the applied digital skills courses, i'm thinking i can become more marketable. you don't need to be a computer expert to be great at this. these are skills lots of people can learn. i feel hopeful about the future now. ♪
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car space. guy, you have been on this one. >> it's almost as if, melissa lee, that the community of analysts specifically at jp morgan and goldman sachs watch "fast money" from time to time, which i'm sure is true we've collectively talked about this as a way to play the auto sector you look at car max and carvana which we've talked about for months, they've been exploding the only thing that gives me pause today is the fact that it traded ten times normal volume and it sort of stalled at the levels we saw at the beginning of the month other than that, this has just been a monster stock i think it probably continues to grind higher. >> the argument has been that carvana has had that head start. there are other auto dealer stocks that have an online sort of offering, dan auto nation is one >> yeah. this one really caught me by
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surprise the 30% move in one day on a couple of broker upgrades for a company that is obviously doing a great job. they're growing sales 25-30% a year and taking some market share. you just mentioned auto nation here's a company that's very profitable they're going to have $20 billion in sales and they make a lot of money flip it around to carvana and they're going to maybe do 5.3 billion in sales this year and a 36 billion dollar market cap and they lose money basically on every car they sell. to me, that's a massive disconnect if you love carvana here, then you probably have to like autonation >> we should note that carvana's short interest is about 29%. bonawyn, what do you feel about the space? consumers do want cars these days they don't want to take taxis.
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they don't want to be near people. >> in terms of general trends, it definitely makes sense. we're talking about a fragmented market you have players that are here that are able to consolidate that and take that online. that definitely plays well into a pre, current and post pandemic world. however, when i'm looking at a company that's trading off of enterprise value to sales, five times forward, nine times showing. i believe, yeah, you definitely look for alternatives. but the general theme makes a ton of sense, absolutely i think this is the way you play it versus the traditional car makers. shares of tesla in the after hours session up nearly 5% the battery event is now underway this is the live presentation. elon musk is on stage. the stock is up on the back of this we'll bring you any big headlines as we have them. coming up, is a rally cooking shares of apple?
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we're getting news out of tesla's battery event. let's get to phil lebeau with the headlines. >> elon musk just outlined that their goal is to cut their cost on their kilowatt hours on their battery cell by 50%. they have not given a time frame for when that is expected to happen, but it's estimated that their cost per kilowatt hour on their sale is $100 per kilowatt hour that is a lofty goal and that may be one reason you see shares of tesla moving higher after hours. >> seems like time frame would be key, phil. >> it is key this is like watching a science class. they're really gng dp oieein the woods in terms of cell production. >> i'm sure they are phil, thanks for covering this up next we have your final trade. ♪
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time for the final trade tim? >> away from home coffee consumption is coming back, outstripping restaurants starbucks comps i think are going to be low and i think they're going to exceed them. >> dan >> if you like that carvana making new highs here, play auto nation back to 50 bucks. >> bonawyn >> i know energy was last week's darling. color me a skeptic i think xle continues to struggle. >> guy adami >> how is this possible that you haven't been to your local blockbuster and rented caddy shack recently i just don't understand.
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>> do they have it on betamax? >> it's interesting the mets' has mirrors industried over the last couple of weeks like a phoenix, i think earnings will rides. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you money. my job is to entertain, educate and teach so-call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet m me @jimcramer. if you want to know where the economy is headed now that 200,000 americans have d
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