deal and hope springs eternal house democrats are preparing a $2.4 trillion stimulus now we'll tell you how far away that is from the latest republican plan it starts with a t but we'll tell you it is september 25, 2020 "squawk box" starts right now. >> welcome i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin it is friday, everybody. some red arrows. dow indicated down 36 points nasdaq by 15

this comes after modest advances you did see gains. the second out of the last three sessions as joe mentioned it has been a rough week we are on track now if we continue on this pace to have the first down month we've seen since march. looking at all the gains they've built up on all of this. you are looking at fairly solid gains. it is a matter of days before we get to the end of the quarter. take a look at the treasury yields now, especially the 10-year. 0.661% hasn't budged. we've been sitting at these levels for some time >> we've got developing news right now. president trump asking a u.s. court to let a ban on the tencent app wechat proceed

the judge is giving the president to 2:30 this afternoon to postpone a ban on tiktok downloads. it doesn't pause the ban but says they must defend the policy in a sunday court hearing. the policy is currently set for 11:59 p.m. this sunday so a lot going on with the kvdel saga >> it was 11:59 last week too. >> what happens if you can't download it? >> did you wait up >> no. >> becky, what were you saying if you can't download it >> if you downloaded it to your phone and lose it or break it, does that mean you can't

redownload it to your new phone or get an update is. >> correct no updates the second -- eventually, it would eventually go away if you had it, you could use it. to the extend you don't break your phone, lose your phone, need to update or doesn't freeze or need to overhaul. >> for the black market for teenagers who rely on these things like a phone that hasn't broken and has it on it, you could sell that for a lot more >> lip sncing and dancing. >> i don't have it i never used it. i do know some teenagers who will be willing to pay top dollar to get a phone back that had it they spend a lot of time on it

>> kind of like betting for me when i can't do it it does make things a bit interesting. on a losing streak getting the teams right. not the total numbers right. maybe i should stop doing that >> yeah, hello had the dolphins they picked by six >> just pick the teams >> horrible. i had the right team in the nba and they were over i wanted them to be under. frustrating. this is easy to understand i figured it out house democrats are proposing a smaller stimulus package a trillion less than the last proposal but a trillion more than what republicans are ready to do. >> even more than that

>> more but roughly. sources tell us the $2.4 trillion package would ininclude enhanced unemployment, small business and airlines. the price tag is still a trillion more than the republicans would like to offer. >> i thought the skin ji bill was $700 or $800 billion. >> in congress, a lot of rounding going on. you are just talking a couple hundred billion. why not round that around. not like we really have to pay that or anything is it? >> the idea that it looks like they are getting closer together but not really we are still talking a massive difference mnuchin said yesterday they are ready to restart talks but didn't give a time table

i don't see how this happens before the election, i just don't. >> probably not. it is weird. you saw goldman sachs. they went from six to three based on not having more prospects for the stimulus i can tell you the election will be over. they'd like more than 6% we'll get that flash number for third quarter which should be 20 plus, like two weeks before or a week and a half before the election you'll hear how great that is. the biggest ever we'll talk to phil about that. his estimate is 23.5 that will be in contrast to earnings which will be down still. in his view, 32% before, it was expected at 40%

a lot of companies will end up beating where the estimates are with much lower numbers. phil is coming up. >> we heard from brian yesterday who said you shoild have additional aid but it should be targeted the democrats in this latest thing still have payments going directly to people across the board. president trump said that is something he'd be interested in. it makes a lot of sense and something you would probably hear from most republicans with a smaller package. the idea of sending a check to everybody, regardless whether you've been impacted, we are past the time doing something like that. you feed to get it to businesses and the people suffering the most right now >> yes agreed president trump signed a series of executive orders aimed

at protecting people with preexisting conditions and looking for a way to prevent surprised medical bills. the goal is to ensure americans are protected whether the care act is ruled unconstitutional. set to take place in november. working with congress to pass legislation against surprise medical bills. health care stocks have been under pressure after the death of justice ginsburg an uncertainty how her replacement could rule on health care issues meantime, palantir shares could debut at $10 a pierce. anticipates revenue growth to roughly $1.1 billion it has never made a profit this is going to be the story.

you never know what the story of the week next week is but in ipo land, this is the story of the ipos >> even though it is not an ipo. sort of. exactly. you are splitting hairs at that point. >> of the offerings that take place next week, this is it. >> should be exciting. palantir, so sexy to a lot of people coming up, a tough week for the dow. the first down month since march. down 3%. phil orlando will tell us what is working next. we'll get ready for delivering alpha next week. back for a 10th year with a

special guest. visit delivering alpha.com i can't believe how quickly these things come. it seems like we just did last years. learn more and register.

things have worsened a little for the dow nasdaq indicated down 27 s&p down nine or so. for an idea of what's happening and working in the markets for what to do, we are joined by phil orlando and i don't know what it has to do about ties you don't even have one on last month, you saw things get overheated and watched things go from average weight to neutral you made a switch. you think things are working and you are sticking with it

a tremendous run in large view by the technology stocks you look at those trading all 50, 60 times earnings. you have a lot of these other sectors, domestic large cap value. small cap stocks, international stocks where we are trading back in the teens we really thought the overall market had probably gone a little too far too fast. largely driven by the tech stocks, the faang, et cetera dialing that back and reemphasizing the neutral and some of these areas were cheaper to spread the risk out better. you felt the catalyst to get the underperformers going. the role in the third quarter will be a lot better than the

second quarter once investors got a sense of that, we felt we'd be able to play a little catch up with those laggards >> the catch up to this, it is a deeper recession than we are seeing in a long time and probably the quickest rebound in the economy and the stock market that is totally justifies the move we have seen in stocks. still going. i know you have a feeling about third quarter gdp. there is a lot about the third quarter. >> there is a lot of hammering the reality is that the equity market has been a forward looking discounting mechanism of

what will happen six to nine months in the future no question you suffered a water fall decline in march and april from an economic standpoint across the board housing, auto, manufacturing as we look out to what those numbers look like as of next year and price that back in to where we are now, there is justification of the rally >> that market went a little too far. in our view, a risk management

and appears to work. something working was clearly over the second face of the market ready to kick in and clear out it might be true. >> trying to make a bottom already. if we could know that, that would be a second wave fears, election and all that stuff. if we knew we were near the

bottom, it could give some confidence >> exactly we think this is have goodiing o be' very ugly, contested election that may not get settled until mid-december the last time we saw that was in 2000 the s&p 500 dropped 10 or 15%. down 10.5% here over three weeks or so. that market ripping the page pricing in uncertainty to the election >> phil, i've been looking at that shot. i get a little bit distracted. i was listening but trying to

see all the stuff behind you you know what they do in a slasher film, they take a shot of you, we go away and come back and there is one missing and you know that person there lurking behind that countriy on the lef. he's got that knife now. it didn't happen to you. >> i think i'm the only one awake in the house the likelihood of that is low. >> you don't have a dog. >> remember that geigo commercial where they are like, let's hide behind these chain saws >> do you see them >> i didn't but it is so weird you bring this up. yesterday, i noticed two of my

knives were missing when i was doing dishes i'm looking around thinking what the heck am i standing in a horror movie somebody took them to open boxes. i hope. >> that's true that's why the geiko commercial is so funny. even the guy, the killer hears them and just shakes his head. let's not take that cars that running out there. >> you can't do that when we come back, we are going to give you new data on where america's youngest consumers are spending money the biggest pre-market movers in the s&p 500. bristol-myers getting a boost after reports of positive tria

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. today's executive edge more than half young genzers are living with their parents. >> 18 to 24-year-old have been hit hardest by job losses. unemployment was at 14% in august one in three has filed for unemployment in the last 30 days according to research firm cgk no wonder the percentage of young adults has swung to the highest level since the great depression over 61% of agagen zers were bak

at home. cities hit hard. zillow estimates the rental market had over a billion decline. without rent to pay, spending has recovered faster than for their parent's generations what they are spending on, entertainment. one in three has upgraded their streaming service. college students who aren't at home, most are still gathering with friends, doing it at home what they are spending it most on is food and booze at home, andrew >> before you go what about when social distancing ends, we can all hope or when we go back to some version of normal, what do you think they'll be spending money

on then? >> there is good news there for retailer the top priority is spending ongoing out they want to buy on clothes, entertainment out. going out to bars and restaurants and to live events all the things we can't do now, they are inching to do those and saving a lot more. saving and investing they'll have a lot of dry powder those ones still working >> thank you we'll see what ultimately happens. more coming up on "squawk box" this morning we turn back those manuals about how to distribute a vaccine and how front line workers shouldn't be among the if irs to receive it that is next a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers >> that was wonderful, bravo, i loved it

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good morning welcome back we've been watching u.s. equity

futures this friday morning. it looks like things are taking a legal leg down down by 20 down 35 points a half hour ago s&p down 15 and nasdaq off by 45 it has been a rough week already for the markets. major averages were up two of the last three sessions. red arrows turning steeper 6:30 on a friday morning. the latest news for the race for the covid vaccine and how to distribute one when approved with us now, form rp health advisor under president obama. former advisor to the biden campaign on vaccine recommendations. thank you for joining us great to see you >> great to be here. >> i thought it was a bit of a

counter intuitive idea when i first read it. thinking when and if we do, thinking that front line workers would be the first in fact to get access you say not so fast. >> well, it is the conventional wisdom it is what the national academy has suggested and what other groups are moving towards approving. the real question is when you distribute the vaccine, what will bring down the morbidity problems health care workers and responders are at that high a risk of getting the vaccine or transmitting this era of ppe. i know at my institution and i've at many other, transmission has gone to zero there may be other sites where there is transmission like

nursing homes or other personnel in the hospital. but i think we need to take a very careful look at who is at high risk of both having severe consequences and transmitting the virus. we've learned a lot about how to transmit and that has changed practices. >> i'd like to try to avoid politic sizing the vaccine it appears to be politicized in many ways. in terms of the credibility of whatever vaccine comes a member of the public or of your family, who would you be looking to to find out whether you would decide, you know what, i'll take this >> i'm not going to be

interpreting those results that's not my skill set. i am going to be relying on experts like everyone else in america. for me, the best experts to look at is the independent advisory committee at the fda that is going to oversee the vaccine approval made up of people that are not government employees by and large academics very, very respected people. they'll look at the date you and make a recommendation. that is the group, the advisory committee overseeing the vaccine trials that i will put my stock in i think that's a very, very trustworthy group. i notice other groups have put together independent groups to also look at the data for

various subcommittees. i think that will be my gold standard >> do you feel confident the fda is not being pressured by politics in this case? >> no. i don't think anyone can feel that we had thydroxychloroquine example. the con voeles enter plasma example. they have the job to keep americans safe there is a lot of political pressure and the agency is headed by a political appointee, we have to revev judgement on

that what is your time line i had a fascinating conversation with a doctor saying even when a vaccine is available, that they would wear masks for some period of time. it isn't clear that just getting a vaccine unto itself would protect you. >> it depends on the effectiveness and whether it prevents transmission, not just reduces the intensity of the infection. that is an important question we won't know at the moment i've said sort of november 2021, is my touch stone. if you think of the vaccine at 75% effective. we need two-thirds, roughly 220

million people to get vaccinated just put out the time line of vaccine production, distribution and administration according to the offers of warp speed, we'll have roughly 300 million doses by the end of june 2021 that's a very optimistic view but let's say that works if you need two shots, that's 150 million americans. i think we are looking at the end of 2021 before we get up to the 220 million americans who need to be vaccinated. that means it is another 15 months from now at the earliest. >> in terms of some of the ethical implications, you've

fought about the distribution of these, who do you think would be in charge? >> you need federal coordination there is no doubt about it the recent guidance again, when we look at the trump administration the main approach they had was to distribute responsibility to the states this is the case where they've done the buying. the federal agency will be in the driver's seat ensuring each step of the way would be done right. putting that in glasses and shipping that out. tho easy are things only the federal government should do, not each individual state. we saw what chaos happened when each individual had to secure its own ppe or ventilators

we need a coordinated response we've seen companies with a coordinated response do better >> given your involvement with obama care originally, trump signed that executive order protecting preexisting conditions as a way to try to prevent people from getting surprised many he had call bills. what did you think of that >> i don't want to be political here but it is a given the republicans have had 10 years and 6 months to pass a health care proform to offer a comprehensive bill to go against the health care act and they've failed over and over again this is a gimmick here to say,

no, we are really serious. you might remember before the 2016 election, the president said we have this plan to keep drug prices down where has that gone? these gimmicks to try to address concerns the public has about their health care, their election year announcements without any real teeth >> you are suggesting this would not be effective >> i'm suggesting this is not an alternative to a comprehensive plan that actually addresses the public's concern we have a lot of concerns. one is the uninsured rate is actually going up. it was going up each year on president president trump. people being laid off and losing their employ year sponsored

insurance. that requires a serious exclusion. it doesn't require an executive order of one thing carved out that is popular in the polls >> thank you good to see you. >> thank you for having me be well, we safe >> thank you comeling up, the biggest market catalyst and what to watch we'll talk to ftc commissioner on the push to diversity in company franchises you can watch or listen to the totally a political cnbc app any time we'll be right back.

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good morning welcome back we are watching what is happening with the markets it looks like u.s. equities are under pressure this has picked up dow futures indicated down 127 points s&p off by 14, nasdaq down by 41 these are red arrows extending a weak week for the markets. let's tell you more about some stories now. amazon announcing new products during a hard wear event a new ring security camera fixed on top of a flying drone meant to fly through your house when you are not there and record the footage. users can determine the flight path it locks into a dock when

charging starts with a price tag of $250. this is like the ultimate spy cam making sure you know what is happening through our house when you are not there. you could be checking in on kids and guests in your house could be creepy. >> just because you are paranoid doesn't people aren't out to get you. that seems overkill. like an adt system i don't need to check. if you really took it to craziness, before you come home, every time, you go, okay, did you go down in the basement. >> check the closet. or a dog might work. that's crazy phil orlando could have had that >> i could see a lot of use cases for this a lot. >> security.

>> if you have a second home or something. >> other things. nanniecam. >> we have an apartment in new york city and i'm not there right this minute. i'd like to go look at the mail or see if the lock is broken i could see a lot of things. if you are traveling and you want to make sure something happened or didn't happen at home i don't think you are going to check the kids or others with that >> how are you going to check the mail the video we were looking at, they showed it scaring an intruder out the door. did you see the end of that. he's scared of the drone is gonna get me >> that would startle you if you

if were an intruder. whenever i see a drone, don't you wonder what drones are doing when you see them? i've been out at a restaurant outside. i see a drone and it is hovering and i'm like, i hope that's not for me no reason to believe it was. they are unsettling. that is a weird thing. flying around your house >> for $250 a year, i think it is creepy. >> i'll get it and test it out three new york city transit workers are off the job after authorities find a secret man cave under grand central station. the space outfitted with

refrigerator, futon, air mattress this was an interior room behind a locked door beneath track 114. they found personal property and receipts and a wireman, carpenter, foreman they are suspended without pay interesting story. >> it kicks off an entire plan to map out they don't even know where all the rooms are. they are starting a project where they map out and know where all the rooms are. wouldn't it be nice to hang out and have your eastern man cave >> couch and remote control. i have thought about it. we don't need a lot. we really don't.

cable. wi-fi. >> men anyway, when we come back, president trump is expected to unveil his choice for ruth bader ginsburg's open seat more about how that could impact your in ve your in investments. that's next. >> announcer: don't forget to subscribe to our podcast look for us on apple podcasts or your favorite podcast app. subscribe today. but explore new terrain. helping you fill portfolio gaps. connect to client goals. and strengthen confidence in you. flexshares. powered by over a century of investment expertise. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information.

read it carefully.

our next guest says there is a catalyst rich environment through january 20th joining us is chris krueger. chris, that's probably an understatement catalyst driven through january 20th there are so many things we know are on the horizon you've been ranked on institutional investors as their number two pick. i know you've been in that list for over a decade. in all the time that you've been watching this, how does this period in time kind of match up for investors? >> great question.

great to be with you i mean, it's sort of like repeal and replace plus the debt ceiling crisis all wrapped ashtd one period it's unprecedented when you think of what was on the track for next week, the presidential debate, airline program expiring, final jobs report before the elections and now you layer in a supreme court fight and maybe, you know, a new push on phase 4 i think we're up to an 11. >> we have watched the markets sell off some this month after reaching new highs would you tell investors to wait and see what happens through that time period do you think there's been enough of a pull back or do you just say, stay clear until you know what's happening >> there was a lot of investor anxiety around the elections and

that was before the tragic passing of justice ginsberg. when you think about election night, november 3rd, i think, you know, unless it's a biden blowout and florida is called for biden, which would basically eliminate any path to 270 votes for president trump, you're probably not looking at election night, you could be looking at election week or election month. you have 11 weeks until the january 20th inauguration. the florida recount took over 30 days the only hard date you have is december 14th when the electors meet in the state capitals january 26th is when the congress meets to count the electoral votes and then obviously the election on january 20 between november 3rd and the 14th, there's not a lot of forcing catalyst on the election counts. >> what does that mean

would you tell people to sell here would you tell them to buy here? would you tell them to sit pat. >> it would -- given the election, the various comes comes, and that may not be until january. >> you know, i remember back in 2016 how quickly markets took off after the election where do you think the market is sitting at this point? do you think it's going to be a biden win? do you think there's a chance for a trump win? obviously biden's ahead in the polls. i wonder how the market is shaping up and if there' surpri surprise. >> given the amount of mail in ballots and the reality of voting in a pandemic having a

lot ever conviction on the election is a challenge. when you think about election outcomes though, too, haven't mentioned this yet, but the senate is really the ultimate arbiter for policy next year what i mean is that the margin of the senate. if it is a biden win, if he doesn't have the senate, you know, that is an outcome i think that a lot of investors in equities would cheer because you don't have those tax increases that have spooked a lot of advisers, if he wins can a democrat of 54 where this is eliminated a lot of them in 2008 and you'll likely have did you runoffs. a lot of uncertainty on the senate margin which is

ultimately i think what is going to determine policy next year. >> thanks for joining us today good talking to you. andrew coming up when we return, futures getting worse this morning as we speak. in the red dow off by 201, nasdaq off 60. s&p 500 looking to open off 22 points plus, we'll talk to gary vaynerchuk about what his firm is doing tapped by bytedance as the official marketer. you don't want to miss that conversation a gndet his insights in what's going on in this crazy soap opera. back in a moment with a lot more ♪ ♪ ♪

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and to see what you can become. you're made for bigger things. the dow on track for the largest weekly loss in three months what you need to watch could the tiktok ban be delayed? we will speak to the u.s. marketing partner, the ceo of vayner media details straight ahead as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc on this friday morning i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at u.s. equity futures this hour. it does look like we're going to open this final day of the week in the red dow off 206. nasdaq down 52 points and the s&p 500 looking to open down about 23 points. joe? >> thanks, andrew. the market's held on to slight gains yesterday but are negative for the week the best performing index this week, the nasdaq, gaining a whopping 0.4%. i don't know maybe that's better than being down 14% mike santoli joins us with more of this week's choppy trading. phil orlando, he says sentiment and other things kind of look

like we're searching for a bottom i don't know if it's still feeling that way. >> a lot of things towards that point, fine, it's over sold, people are fearful maybe not quite the fact pitch looking at the map here of year to date of the chart of the s&p 500, one thing that comes out, how often we've been working and testing similar areas on this chart. i know you're talking more about that at the open, if we open right here, we're again to the 23.20 area we were there two months ago, we were there 3 and a half months ago. that's how you started the year. it's how far you go back and that would create a proper reset. if you thought the market here and here was racing ahead, too far ahead of itself, needed to calm down, that's what's going on right here at minimum take a look at stocks versus

bonds. one of the dynamics has been a rebalancing effect out of equities by asset allocation funds. look at here, the outperformance versus the total bond market index which has done nothing in price terms. right here you have a little bit less of a gap. 5 percentage outperformance quarter to date. a lot of this has worked its way through. that rebalancing out of equities might be through and maybe one component of the selling that might lift, guys >> we're going to -- >> mike, thank you. >> stay tuned. maybe katie can help us, becky good time to have her on. >> mike, stay here she's going to talk about some of the same themes you talked about here joining us is katie stockton i know you've been concerned about the way the technology stocks were showing leadership to the down side

that seems to have abated a little bit what are you reading in the charts right now >> really, it's as of this week that we've seen some relief for this large cap technology stocks i do think it's promising. they did exhibit down side leadership in the early stages of the pull back which still does have a hold on the market in terms of short term down side momentum however, as mike mentioned, we have a very widespread short term over sold position now. also we've seen for the first time during the pull back, extremes registered and sentiment. so that to me is getting us much closer to short term tradeable low. the tech stocks if they stabilize that should set a tone for the broader market >> you're not necessarily to the point where you would tell people to jump back in you're waiting for some other signals first? >> that's right. i'm looking for momentum to return waiting for the momentum gauges

to flash by signals, if you will, and that to me is going to be the all clear signal for at least the intermediate turn up trend. we don't have that yet but what we have is support discovery we're seeing in some cases at least successful tests of the monday low that's about 32.30 for the s&p 500. we're watching apple, microsoft, the likes to come in but as it stands, i think we can be reducing market hedges and cover some that have that position. >> katie, is it somewhat positive with the benefit of behind site and if he were consolidating at what would consider positive levels based

on everything we've been through. if we're doing work sort of building a base or consolidating gains way above 3,000 on the s&p, that sleems if that doesn't indeed happen. that would mean we're not back at 25 or 2600. a skpleet slowdown in the global economy. that's possible given something negative happening. >> that could put us back in the soup you don't see that happening. >> not right now however, the win is that the market still is in a long-term up trend ahead of this pull back we saw widespread breakouts. they do tend to foster

additional long-term momentum. we're not seeing any structural damage the pull back has only affected our short term gauges for the most part. even the intermediate term gauges are still pointing higher we don't see any issues in terms of a prolonged corrective phase at this time listen, anything can happen. we're expecting it to be a little bit bumpier ride between now and year end, certainly than we saw from march through september. we're not looking for any major correction at this time. >> mike, you look at not only some of the technical issues, some with the a washington strategist trying to deal with everything that's going to come between now, through the end of the election, through the debates in congress, whether we get financial aid or fiscal aid for coronavirus. how would you put that together?

what would you be looking for? >> the market is ahead of that we'll be talking about it for weeks and several more weeks i'm not saying it all gets priced in because we don't know what we're trying to price in. the general idea we might not have a dissolved conflict and a high conflict period of time, i think that's what the market is bracing for at the moment. i don't think it's as easy saying, hey, get out of the market because it will be rough. the year 2000, no one thought we would have an election hung up for five weeks if you look back, there were a lot of other reasons why that was going down besides that brief period of uncertainty when we didn't know what was going to happen i wouldn't want to downplay that as a tremendous risk, psychological and otherwise, but i think the market is chewing through the implicationmplicati.

>> of all of the things that we talk about in 2000, things that affected the stock market, i don't remember that this year. want to thank you both for being here it's good to see you >> you, too. when we come back, coming up, kate rogers going to look at the diversity in the franchise industry whether it will speak to digital and gary vai ner chuck "squawk box" continues right after this my mom has super powers. it's like she can see the future. what?! it's like she time travels in a rocket ship. that's cool! and then she comes back saying "try this" or "try that." she helps everyone. she helps them feel less worried.

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welcome back to "squawk box. nice shot of the capital franchising has a very diverse base of ownership. the most recent census data showing 30% of franchises are minority observwned and restaurs make up a lot of that. what's the industry doing to fix that >> we are told restaurants are working to diversify franchisee

chains mcdonald's says 30% of the u.s. franchisees are from ethnically owned. yum brands committed $100 million globally over the next 5 years, part of which will include creating pathways for employees who want to become entrepreneurs including franchisees. however, none breaks out ownership numbers. that coupled with a major franchisee lawsuit against mcdonald's alleging racial skrim nation means more focus is likely to come here we have rohit chopra.

>> thanks for having me. >> so first i'd just love to ask you, what steps, in your opinion, need to be taken here in order to increase equality of opportunity, particularly for minority groups to make up such a large portion of franchisees within the broader industry? >> one of the great ways that so many people can start a business without a lot of connections and capital is actually to get into franchising. so like you said, we do see a pretty disproportionate representation of minorities in franchising. sat the same time there's very minority businesses that are trying to survive. they have been hit hard during the pandemic and many are concerned about the power that big franchisors have in order to dictate how they run their businesses so ultimately we're going to

need to look hard at that to make sure that everyone, no matter where they come from, how they started their business, or their race or ethnicity, can compete. >> you recently tweeted out that small businesses in america are facing extending shish what's the biggest threat now and what are regulators doing about it >> well, obviously small business credit is top of mind for so many small business owners i think there's lots of different threats. many small businesses are trying to figure out how they're going to compete with larger, private equity owners in this space. we see obviously many are facing challenges with some of these

predatory business loans outside of ppp merchant cash advance programs that can set them up to fail. >> you recently called out both mcdonald's is facing a major franchisee lawsuit they deny the allegations. you talked about subway. are there any companies that are doing a good job of extending opportunity, particularly to minority groups so they can grow their wealth in businesses >> i think, like you said, we don't actually have really good data on what owners are like in these companies. it's not just public companies, it's private companies, too. where i come from, we ultimately want to make sure there's a fair playing field, both for the franchisor and the franchisee. we don't want to see franchisors increase their ability to profit off of franchisee pain especially it has to be something that is symbiotic where both can grow

and succeed together ultimately if franchisees are squeezed to the brink, we don't know enough, we want there to be more equity in business ownership in america we see franchisees and the franchise model as a vehicle for that, but it's got to be fair and we have to make sure there are not any unfair practices. >> and to that point the ftc is currently reviewing the franchisee rule. >> we've opened the room for comment. i'm hoping we hear from a broad array who are interested in how we grow the economy for all and small businesses and franchises can thrive instead of the situation they face right now. ultimately the core part of the franchise rule is really a disclosure for those who are

seeking to open a franchise. many of them feel it is complicated to navigate, but i think we need to look at the whole thing. not just the disclosure, but also the underlying contract, agreement between franchisors and franchisees. we want to make sure it's not too one sided and franchisors can't bully franchisees. so ultimately we have to look at the whole thing. i know state regulators are very interested we share the goal of making sure that these small businesses do well >> well, commissioner, we will leave it there thank you so much for joining us this morning >> thanks. >> joe, back over to you >> all right, kate thanks coming up, the latest numbers on the government's mortgage bailout program coming up. check outthe futures at this hour they were down more than 200 on the dow. the dow down 189 nasdaq not as bad really on a percentage basis, so we'll see

"squawk" will be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. this insurance company ceo started her career in the industry as a claims representative in 1988 who is she the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues aflac! now tell me, what does aflac do? aflac pays you money directly to help with unexpected medical bills. and is aflac health insurance? no, but it can help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover! that's right. are there any questions? -coach! -yes? can i get one of those cool blue blazers? you know i can't play favorites. alright let's talk coverage. it's go time! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. mmm hmm! get to know us at aflac.com

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industry as a claims representative in 1988 who is she the answer -- trisha griffith. ceo of progressive insurance the latest weekly numbers on covid mortgage bailouts are out. diana olick joins us good morning. >> reporter: good morning. more borrowers are now coming out of mortgage bailout programs the pace is improving. there are hurdles. 95,000 borrowers exited their mortgage forbearance programs in the past week. that brings the current total 3.6 million homeowners that's 6.8% of all active mortgages down from 7% the week before these plans allow borrowers to delay their monthly plan for up to three months and they can renew for up to a year

those with fha and va loans are in the most trouble. 11 percent in forbearance. 5% of fannie and freddie loans, 7.1% in bank and private the end of september though crucial to watch because just over 1 million borrower plans are set to expire from the latest three-month term. we'll see how many get extended. of those in bailouts, 78% had their terms extended since march so still unable to get current on their payments. back to you guys >> diana, just for clarity, when you're in one of these programs, does that mean you're not making any payments you're taking the payments that would be due and tacking them onto the end of the mortgage, the life of the mortgage >> it depends on the person. there are some people making some payments, some people making partial payments and some people making no payments at all. what happens is they can make up those payments either when they

refinance the mortgage or when they sell the home for other programs that are not part of the government bailout, they can tack those onto the end of the loan. >> so we're at six months right now. you can extend these -- being in these programs for up to a year. what happens six months from now when we're at a year and a lot of those people will have been in the program for as long as they can be? >> well, that's the big question do they extend it further? they can't have people not paying their mortgages forever, right? they either go into some kind of modification plan where they get a lower interest rate and maybe they can start making their payments again or at some point the house may have to be sold. we're hearing from investors that are getting ready to buy the homes. they are ready to buy up distressed homes and turn them into single family rentals because there is huge demand for housing right now. >> diana, thank you. okay when we come back, a lot more on

"squawk. the ceo of vayner media. gary vaynerchuk is going to join us he signed a deal with bytedance to be tiktok's marketing partner in the u.s in the meantime, take a quick look at the futures this morning. the dow, nasdaq and s&p 500 all looking to open lower. about 176 points off on the dow. s&p 500 off 18 points. back in a moment ts. you're slouching again, ted. expired, expired... expired. thanks, aunt bonnie. it's a lot of house. i hope you can keep it clean. at least geico makes bundling our home and car insurance easy. which helps us save a lot of money oh, teddy. did you get my friend request? uh, i'll have to check. (doorbell ringing) aunt joni's here! for bundling made easy, go to geico.com. hello?

. welcome back to "squawk box. another deadline approaching on that tiktok deal julia boorstin joins us now with more on that the never ending story, julia.

>> reporter: it certainly seems never ending, andrew well, yesterday a federal judge told the trump administration that it has until 2:30 p.m. eastern today to delay a ban on tiktokdown loads here in the u.s. that ban was set to go into effect sunday night. now if the administration doesn't issue a delay or if china and the u.s. don't sign off on the deal to sell stakes in the social media company to oracle and walmart, "the wall street journal" reports the judge will hold a hearing sunday morning to determine whether to grant tiktok's request and temporarily halt the ban on the app. this court order comes in response to tiktok's request for an injunction to stop the ban that was filed which sources close to the situation tells me the two sides are currently negotiating, particularly focused in on the national security agreement that is essential to this deal and the expectation that i'm hearing from various sources is that the deadline will be delayed again if it's not and if the app is, indeed, shut down, the company

says it will have major impact on its operations. interim tiktok head vanessa pappis said a ticktock ban, quote, irreversibly harms us by growing and developing content and retracting and retaining business partners and employees. a ban would cause the app's user base to stagnate and precipitously decline. so, andrew, the stakes are high. back over to you >> when do you think -- well, in terms of just the various permutations with which this could go, what do you think we're going to know monday or tuesday of next week >> what will we know the real question is what will we know sunday we're likely to get a delay on the deadline, maybe not today

before 2:30 but before sunday. it seems like tiktok will continue to operate until all of the details of this deal are ironed out remember, andrew, a lot centers on the fact that the president, the administration really wanted to seem like a u.s. controlled deal and then you have bytedance on the other hand saying that bytedance will control 80% of the company and even though tiktok says it will be over 50% controlled here in the u.s so we'll see what happens. >> julia, thank you. there's so much to unpack here i know we'll talk, i'm sure, with you again we hope on monday when we find out what happens on the other side of this decision. in the meantime, i want to talk to our very special guest this morning, gary vaynerchuk founder and ceo of vayner media. recently tapped by bytedance to be the u.s. marketing partner of the company. gary, great to see you

so much to talk to you about even outside of tiktok on tiktok specifically, i'm curious if you can walk us through your thinking about getting on board with bytedance and with tiktok at a moment at which the president clearly and the administration clearly are claiming this company is a national security threat >> well, the pitch started before all the brouhaha started and we were awarded the business story this time. obviously like every other american business in the world, we'll deal with whatever the rules are and so like you, your viewers and everybody else, we're standing by. >> right do you consider this company to be a national security threat? >> me personally, i don't, but maybe i'm not sitting on information that others are. but, no, i do not. >> in terms of the competitive landscape that tiktok now exists in and also the uncertainty

around tiktok, you're seeing users who -- and influencers who have had a lot of success on tiktok either migrate some of their users or try to push people into instagram and other places what are you seeing in that regard and given that you now work for tiktok, what are you hoping to do to prevent that >> listen, you know, our small scope with tiktok at the vayner media level doesn't really impact what i am interested in in the scheme of business. what facebook, inc., pinterest, all are platforms that all of our brands work on i'm not overly emotional i could care less if facebook, snap chak, linked-in, cnbc, "the new york times" disappeared off the face of the earth. i'm focusing on attention. that's what our clients are focusing on. where is the actual attention and how do we advertise on that platform as far as influencer in the world needs to divest and be on

every single platform and create contextual content on each of the platforms. whether it's the government shutting it down or the consumers. if you put all of your eggs into my space, you're not doing so well today something i've been screaming about in my content for a decade if you're not creating across the board, you're losing it's something brands are doing. many are pot committed to a network on this when all of the attention is shifting to this. >> gary, let me ask you a question then. joe and i talked about it and becky and i occasionally talk about it as well, which is it feels like each of these platforms is for a different demographic and specifically tiktok is for a much younger demographic. i joke we should be doing lip sync battles and other things. i don't know if it's on brand. you can send me the bill for this advice.

what are businesses or brands or individuals who think that they, dare i say, feel a little bit older supposed to do on tiktok >> you know what's funny, if you look at what's happening on tiktok, we're getting our advertisers trying to reach 35 to 45 going on the platform pretty aggressively because every platform gets much older to your point, don't deviate from what you know to your point, if you and i dance on that platform, i don't think we're getting that many views. you need to stay in your pocket. you can't find a 24-year-old on facebook today every one of them was on the platform eight years ago so it ebbs and flows and as tiktok gets older, an audience can emerge i've been putting out business content on the platform for day one. i think cnbc and i think your incredible show could dominate on tiktok if you put out information and just had the nuances of ticktock more than

trying to become charlie camillio. >> okay. you just won this beauty pageant. we're going to be hiring you to help with the marketing strategy for "squawk.." >> interested. >> a personal question, a business question. i see you all over social media constantly i mean constantly. i always think to myself, how does he do it? and how many people does he have helping him? on the personal gary vaynerchuk accounts, how many people are on the team >> 15. i believe that -- >> 15 people >> 15 people i think over the next 15 years people will realize that a human that is using top of the funnel awareness to drive their business results are going to build out production capabilities for the attention grab this is something that's always been done. >> right >> this is why i've been a fan of cnbc my whole life. i like business and business

people and types have come on, had shows, hosts, used that for other dynamics or to depth that. for me, it makes a lot of sense because it leads to all of my other business activities, whether it's rese the restaurant app, or the empathy brand that i was on for that exit to be the sole business, very honestly, i don't need a 15 person team, i don't need a 1 person team if i didn't value awareness and branding so much. >> right. >> convert it into operational business >> gary, because you have so many people working on this team then, look, i do -- to the extent i tweet, i do it myself for the most part. >> yeah. >> i mean, literally, if i press send, i'm the only one who can do that. how -- are things going out over your handle and you're like, i wish we didn't do that >> oh, no, 15 people creating content.

i am the person pushing send i am the person replying that's why there's a team gary vee account. production capabilities are on the back end but i'm the delivery mechanism no different than a writing team on late night. it's still going to be colbert or fallon delivering or executing. what that allows me to do -- my team sends me unlimited stuff. i'm not posting that i'm writing the copy to context the video or picture >> okay. i want to pivot. two other topics. >> please. >> three you're an investor in bitcoin. i want to talk to you about collectibles and sports cards because i know that's a big deal for you. some people in the audience know i'm a big basketball card collector. >> i love it. >> i was i still value the collection what do you think is going on with crypto right now? >> to be frank, i hate to go on my own platform and this

platform to pontificate. to your point, i invested years ago pretty passively to learn so i'm not up to date enough to really bring value on blockchain, i just really don't know, but i pay attention to the technology, the underlying technology because i think technology is what we're dealing with for the next century. >> what about cards? you're still a crazy card collector, right >> you know, i did as a kid. it's where i learned my supply and demand economics in the last three years the industry has exploded. for everyone who's watching do some homework on it. vintage basketball cards is going through its andy warhol era. the supply and demand curves are clear and there's a lot of dynamics of kids watching.

sometimes people compare cards to crypto. i'm like, no, no, this is very different. this is six time like any market to have an up tick this time around the modern business person is much more casual and culture oriented. the art collectors. >> i wanted to talk to you about the future of esports. it's not just the sporting that's going on, it's concerts, it's marge mellow and travis scott doing the concerts on these platforms. what does that look like in the future >> the vra world has a ton to go, that part. i think for the crowd that's watching right now, if you're a fortune 5000 ce/oh cmo, if you continue to under estimate what the sponsor dollars mean and 30,

40-year-old men all the way up to even 50, i think there's a lot of brands pouring money into the nhl, mlb which is completely lacking contemporary dna and are missing 25% on that dollar investment in esports. the esports investment is the real arbitrage. >> gary, we have to run. i did get a question on twitter now. how much physical time in a given day do you think you spend on social media pressing send and actually engaging? >> anywhere between 14 minutes because i have 15 hours of meetings i couldn't get out of to 3 to 4 hours if i'm traveling to my singapore office and the flight has wi-fi and i need that escapism don't forget, i use social to get consumer insights, which is

what i'm completely built on and my companies are so i'm doing research while i'm engaging and putting out content. that's an under stated aspect of being in the trenches of social. do you understand what the humans in our world give a crap about. >> gary vaynerchuk, always great to see you thank you for your perspective. >> thank you take care. >> see ya. thanks joe? coming up, new jersey recently passing a millionaire tax? robert frank joins us with that story. the first female story ever named to a major railroad. katie farmer the incoming ceo of bnsf railroad. we'll discuss the impact of the nation's rail system and the path ahead "squawk" will be right back. t. that's why we create moments to feel kohler clean, every day. ♪

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futures still down not out there headed below more than 200 points and the nasdaq was quite a bit in terms of it being in the red earlier down about 17 right now. 17 or 18 the s&p is down 13 new jersey recently, what? oh, no recently passing a millionaire's tax, becky and new york could be close behind robert frank has some data on whether new york's high taxes are chasing the wealthy away there's a few things going on in new york city that makes it tough right now, i guess, robert this could even add to that. >> yeah, absolutely, joe new jersey's tax hike on millionaires adding new fuel to the push in nine states now to raise taxes on the wealthy new jersey raised that top rate from 8.97% to 10.75% for those making a million dollars or

more now taxpayers making over 5 million were already paying that rate, but the new threshold is estimated to raise $400 million this year. new york lawmakers looking at a $15 billion short fall are pushing for new wealth taxes and rate hikes on high earners now one of those new york high earners, jamie dimon, saying he's okay paying more taxes but not a wealth tax >> i'm not against having higher taxes of the wealthy, but i think you should do that through your income as opposed to calculations to wealth which is extremely complicated, legalistic, bureaucratic, regulatory and people find a million ways around it governor cuomo opposing any tax hike saying the top earners would leave new york now the top 1% in new york pay 36% of the state's taxes and in new york city they pay 46% of the taxes. now the citizens budget committee saying the population

of millionaires looks out. the share of millionaires in new york has declined over that period guys, back to you. >> that simple, isn't it, robert if you can move somewhere, you might move we have people arguing that point though it's like oh, no, no, no, no, people aren't going to move based on that if they like it somewhere. unless it was national if it's national, you've got nowhere to go. thanks, robert for more on states looking to raise taxes on the wealthy, let's bring in john hope bryant. founder, chairman, ceo of operation hope john, do you think people move from one locale to another based on this? there is some evidence that they do and i think andrew cuomo has seen some of that happen in new york and a lot of times -- the weather's already nice down there. if there's much lower taxes in

florida and you are able to do it, doesn't that cause a migration? >> first of all, good morning, joe. i think that if you want an example of folks fleeing because of not just taxes but i think the wrong environment, don't look no further than france where the word entrepreneur actually came from because they made the tax -- the wealthy the villain and supposedly, you know, had a right irresponsibly to take care of everybody else. that's the wrong tone and the wrong message. if you're saying in new york and wetalk about the new jersey ta if you like, some of it is smart, we need a battle plan and we need all of us to lean in to the reinvention of our cities and our states, they can print money and they aren't printing any. it's a temporary problem we need to reinvest in new york,

reinvest in new jersey we need to not cut services to the poor, from the poor all the way up to landscaping outside of your town house and trash collection, which you want we need to promote things like apprenticeships, small business creation, things like that that's where your money's going. then i think people go, okay, i'm not hearing you pounding on me you have a short-term problem. people are smart you need to help me gap it so we can invest and grow this not back but back better people stay. if you do that, they stay and double down. if they hear this is a pounding of the rich and the wealthy because, well, we hate you, people say -- like anybody else, you don't stay where you're not wanted so i think it's a tone issue more than anything else. i think that the governor of new york is sending the right message on tone. i thought the new jersey tax in

many ways, they got it at least half right. >> john, i think if we -- if taxpayers knew for sure that the money was going to go exactly where it was intended and if they -- if there wasn't a history of politicians just, you know, not following through on promises to do exactly what they said they're going to do, then people wouldn't be so worried. we probably, you know, at some point need to worry about paying down some of the stuff we've already -- that never happens. we just find new ways to spend it if it was targeted to what you just described, i think people would feel a lot better. is it possible to structure it that way can you be confident that murphy and the pauls -- yeah, politicians in new jersey will direct it where you're saying? can we feel confident about that should i feel good >> i can't speak for those in new jersey it is one of the wealthiest states in america and they've got a lot of gdp and there's no

research force to suggest the wealthy are not moving out because they were taxing it at that $5 million higher clip so they've done i think a decent job on tone there. what they've done in the legislation smartly is said the deal we're going to cut is if you are making $75,000 as an individual, $150,000 as a family, you're going to get $500, a cash rebate i believe it is if you have any kind of philanthropic or pay the try otic heart, you'll see an $18,000, that's cheap philanthropy that's a real good deal. that's going by those people who you pass by who getan extra 50 bucks to pay so you're seeing that in a targeted way my services at operation hope, we're non-governmental

my support's gone up. the services have doubled. me people needing our services have doubled. people are seeing a return on investment i think that my ideal politician has a republican head and a democratic heart and it's a get it done party. it all needs to be much more business like, joe i think you'll appreciate this folks need to be held accountable. folks know they're needed but don't know they're wanted and you show they're wanted also by being accountable to them for outcomes so i think that a new amar shall plan focus on small business creation, tax breaks for small business creation, tax breaks for the wealthy that offset tax increases if you do the following things, internships, apprenticeships, things that buck up the middle class and grow the economy or stabilize it i think people will rush to a

place like that to double down, not rush for the gate. >> you think that would work in new york it's a $15 billion problem what would you do if you could just control, you know, the governor's office and the legislature? what would you do in new york city or new york. >> i would massively double down new york's not a city, it's a country. and you've got the smartest people on the planet yourself, becky, joe, others included, andrew, who understand markets, economies, investment and return you understand the cost, the tax and you understand an incentive. if you put incentives in place, again, i would do k through college on financial literacy. i do a financial literacy bond i say some of this money is going into a financial literacy bond i would do k through college education. it's clear that you make more money, create more revenue with the higher educated people are and less crimes and less

problems i would do massive internships and a break for folks on capital gains and/or their income tax if they personally invest through corporations through internships and apprentice ships at scale. i would do a range of -- i would do the state version of an earned income tax credit gets the average income tax up by giving folks a one-year pop the $500 check sort of qualifies if we weren't in the middle of covid. i would clarify, joe, this package is temporary this is temporary. we need a real plan in 2020 that's long term >> all right a lot of things we've just got to view as temporary, i think, john anyway, thank you. we appreciate it a lot of things for -- maybe cuomo's watching maybe we'll see some of this put to action. we appreciate it thanks, john we'll see you soon andrew >> okay. great conversation with john there. coming up when we return,

incoming bnsf railway incoming ceo katie farmer joins us straight ahead plus, we're going to get you up to speed what to watch ahead of the open. take a look at the biggest winners in the s&p 500 this morning "squawk" returns right after this ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪

good morning stock futures making moves major averages on pace for their fourth straight weekly loss. that hasn't happened in more than a year. and a new twist in the tiktok saga u.s. judge now says trump administration must delay a download ban or defend its case today. the pandemic's impact on

critical infrastructure and one of this country's logistic call backbones. we have an interview with katie farm farmer the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. that just sounds better than some of the other stuff in my ear. >> mine. >> i was kind of letting that go for a while. it's a friday. ♪ ♪ >> i'm joe kernen with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin becky could -- points -- do some tiktok stuff because you were lip syncing.

>> that's your way of telling me lip sync, don't sing it. >> he told you don't dance, andrew, gary did he didn't really sugar coat that. >> be yourself, man. >> but this is myself. >> do not try on tiktok. let some social media app grow to you do not try to go to the social media. he said that to you. anyway, i was thinking, wow. i missed a lot of them people aren't on facebook anymore. that's true, because i'm not u.s. equity futures at this hour are now down less than triple digits we've come down 200, down to maybe 92, 94 we're going to talk to cramer later, i think you guys probably watch it he's like, this looks like it's coming from europe, some of the weakness in our averages over there they've got a different sitc maybe this isn't committed

selling. treasury yields. treasury yields are where they've been in a nutshell. not that you'd look. >> story we're watching. new tiktok downloads or else tell him why the ban should proceed. the judge has given the administration until 2:30 eastern time today to make a choice if enacted on sunday, it would

prevent apple and the google store's app from preventing new tiktok downloads the justice department has asked the government to have an appeal the judge issued a preliminary injunction against the administration last weekend. guys, real quick, one unique element about this whole debate about app stores, whether apple controls things too much or google controls things too much. one of the things you're already starting to see is the potential for tiktok to be downloaded through a -- what almost is called like a side car or a side app store in android you can't do this on an apple phone and then there's going to be new questions about what kind of security gets involved with that so lots of questions about what's going to happen here, becky. >> andrew, thanks. bnsf, the freight giant owned by berkshire hathaway has

named a new ceo. effective january 1st, she will become the first chief executive of a major railway company at the time when the industry is facing a lot of unpredictability because of the pandemic. joining us is katie farmer, the incoming president and ceo of bnsf katie, i know you've been with the railroad for 28 years now, i think, and have worked just about everywhere there everywhere from marketing, finance, to operations and i just lost my ifp so i'm going to ask you this first question and i'm going to dial back in while i'm doing that i just wonder. i think you started out as an intern there, is that correct? >> i did i did. 20 years old i started out as an intern for bsnf or the former burlington northern. >> and as you -- i guess you were a pretty good intern, katie. go on. and then how do you -- you know, every intern dreams, i think, of ending up in the top spot, but

how much of the operations in the rail have you had, you know, a position with? i would imagine that most things that you need to be concerned with now you've had a capacity at the company in those areas. >> yes i've been fortunate to work for the company for almost three decades and bnsf believes in development. we believe in offering people the opportunity to reach their full potential and as a part of that i've been fortunate enough to have roles both on a commercial side in our finance department as well as my previous role was chief operating officer and so i've been fortunate to see all of the parts of the railroad and get to work with the great men and women of this incredible company. >> hey, katie. i know you worked for several years with carl ice who's in the

job right now in terms of cost cutting. what's your theory in terms of how you'll be changing the railroad or what you'll keep in place. >> sure. let me start by saying that carl ice has done an incredible job positioning us for the future and for bnsf to be successful well into the future in addition to that, i have been fortunate enough to be part of his leadership team for over a decade i would anticipate that we would continue to focus on our business model, to continue to guide this company through the different various economic cycles we'll continue to focus on good cost control and efficiency and most importantly, providing the kind of service that customers have come to expect from bnsf. >> katie, warren buffet has been fascinated with railroads since he was a kid, but he looks at them as a great indicator of what's happening with the economy. he's always kind of looked at the rail car loadings to try to get a sense of how things are

going in this country. what do you see? where do we stand from what you're seeing at the railroad? >> we, like warren, look at our rail car loadings every week to give you just a barometer of where we see rail car loadings, what that means to our railroad, we basically say that if we're handling about 200,000 units a week, that that indicates we're a busy railroad. to give you some perspective, back in 2018 we handled over 200,000 units a week 41 times that year. if you fast forward to 2020 this year and the impact of a pandemic, we haven't hit 200,000 units on our railroad yet. in the depth of the pandemic our rail loadings were actually down to about 150,000 units a week. now we have seen that continue to come back, and we anticipate this week we'll handle somewhere in the neighborhood of mid 195, 196,000 range. so we have seen the economy

start to pick up relative to rail loadings. >> there have been some industry reports that suggest it's really difficult to get a booking on a railroad if you're trying to move things from, let's say, the west coast ports anywhere in the midwest or vice versa. there's a real shortage because of a crush of new volume coming into those ports >> well, we definitely have seen our consumer products business increase fairly rapidly over the last several weeks, and consumer products for us is a combination of our domestic intermodal, our international intermodal and automotive intermodal is the business where we work with our steam ship lines, our trucking partners to bring either a 53 foot container or 40 foot container to us on the rail to load and it primarily is consumer products in those containers or trailers

that go ton retailers. we have seen a significant increase in volt umass in the last couple of weeks and i think there's a couple of factors that are driving that. we continue to see the inventories that need to be replenished across the supply chain. we're working to fill distribution centers that have been depleted through the pandemic we have seen a tightening in over the road trucking capacity. in addition to that, something we were seeing prior to the pandemic but we have seen accelerated is the move from bricks and mortar retailing to online retailing we have seen a pretty significant increase in fact, if you look across our hubs and our terminals, we typically in a year where we're preparing for the holiday season see what we call peak volumes. those peak volumes happen typically in september, october time frame we have started to see peak level volumes across the system relative to domestic intermodal

that are happening in the august and now september time frame which we think is a great thing because bnsf, as you know, becky, is the largest intermodal railroad in the world. we have the fastest network. we think this is a great opportunity that works well for one of our core competencies >> some of the reports i've read suggest that bnsf is chasing that additional volume coming in from the west coast and trying to do the best it can to capture that additional volume while the u.p., union pacific, is not doing as much. is that an accurate representation, do you think >> well, becky, i never like to comment on other railroad's operating philosophies i can tell you how we look at it at bnsf. we have a bias for growth at bnsf we believe that, you know, we are very closely tied to the industrial and the consumer economies and because of that we continue to see peaks and valleys from year to year in our

volumes. so we have to be focused on growth we have to be nimble enough that we can capture those growth opportunities is having a competitive cost structure and we're extremely focused on that and when you have growth opportunities and a good cost structure, that allows you to get value and you should be able to earn an adequate return that allows us to continue to invest in our network and have the capacity that we can say yes then to growth opportunities so that's the model we use that's the model we've used in the past that will be the model we continue to use moving forward >> some people point out though that container traffic isn't really high margin business. you're able to go after it, make these changes in a quick way and still make a profit on all of this >> yes, ma'am, and we continue

that's why it's critical for us to be able to have a good cost structure and to be able to remain competitive with over-the-road trucking. >> katie, when you look across the peak amounts that you're getting in now, do you anticipate that's going to continue through the end of the year because that's when you get into your normal crunch time we had a story where we looked at whether or not people would be able to get their things on time if you want to get things in time for the holidays, you should orderly is that something you would advise people? >> we definitely anticipate that our consumer business, we will see peek volumes through the balance of the year. as we help the supply chain to restock the dcs and restock inventory, so i can't speak to whether or not people should orderly or not we certainly will do our best at bnsf to deliver the kind of service to support the major

retail e retailers. just to be clear on that, in our industrial segment and product business, that's a market basket of all of the industrial commodities. we are really starting to see more gradual improvement in those volumes so anything related to the energy sector, for us that's sand that's used in fracking, that's petroleum products that has not rebounded in the way the consumer business has. there are bright spots in the industrial segment we are seeing anything related to construction or housing so for us that's lumber shipments. those are rebounding nicely. and then if you look at our agricultural commodities business, that is a business that really was least impacted by the pandemic. you know, people need to continue to eat, even through a pandemic so our agricultural business has

remained strong through all of this we expect to see that as well. we saw as the country went into lockdown and shutdown, electricity demand was lower natural gas prices we had a relatively mild winter. in addition to the structural decline we had seen in advance of the pandemic, our coal business has certainly been impacted i just want to be clear while we're seeing good growth in the consumer business, when we talk about peak volumes, the rest of the railroad is kind of a mixed bag for us it's certainly unclear as to what we'll see going into the future >> those are good points you said in 2018 you were seeing more than now. is there a year you could point

back to? >> yeah. you know, probably the 2006 maybe time frame, 2005 again, we're really closely tied to the industrial and consumer markets. the railroad, our loadings are a lead indicator for what you're going to see in the economy. >> katie, want to thank you so much for your time today congratulations on the new post. >> thank you, becky. appreciate it. >> thank you coming up, the federal government failed in its efforts to target stimulus to those that truly were in need that, that's not a fact, that's the view though of a former top economic advisor to president trump. we're going to hear what he means and how he thinks it should have been more targeted in a few minutes as we head to break, check out the shares of vail resorts they missed on fourth quarter

revenue expectations and a wider than expected loss it expects the number of season passes for the year to be roughly the same as a year ago no small fete. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc dad, it's a video call. hold the phone in front of you. how's that? get...get mom. power e*trade gives you an award-winning app with 24/7 support when you need it the most. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

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territory. off by 21 points andrew >> thanks, becky let's bring you some other news. british betting firm william hill is now the target of two separate takeover proposals. william hill said he got cash buyouts from apollo management as well as from caesar's entertainment. discussions are ongoing. the size of those bids not disclosed. so an interesting one to watch in the betting space, joe. >> that's well known sports book and everything else, andrew. and a day doesn't go by when we don't realize how valuable these things might become, i think, and how popular it is becoming i always talk about my own personal experience. i just have one comment to make, i don't know whether you guys realize this, but the business model of like a draft kings or something, i'm not even sure they have a system where money comes back out from draft kings. i don't know if anyone has ever actually done that

i'm not kidding. you go in, you bet, you have fun, you lose, then you send more money in and then you have fun and you bet and it's like an expense. it's like you're paying for entertainment and you never expect, ever, to ever -- anything ever come back to you i'm realizing that i don't know if anyone has this experience it's a hell of a business model. then they give you bonuses they give you a free bet you think, oh, my god, you can't run a business like this they give it to you. wow, this is great you bet, you lose that they didn't give me anything they don't give you anything so i'm going to try that i'll let you know if i -- i'm going to try to send money from where it is back to like a bank account and i think the thing's just going to say, no one has ever tried this. i don't even know if they're set up electronically. >> not even a real casino where

they'll comp you on drinks or a room or something. >> no. >> you get nothing out of it. >> i'm fully -- i seem to be okay with this, which i really don't understand i think it might be better to go down smaller on individual bets, like into the pennies on certain nfl games. have you tried this, sorkin? you like basketball. was that a money making venture. >> yes >> you did >> both. both both the love of basketball and an entrepreneurial effort that -- maybe now has had good results back then i think my father would tell you it had mixed results at best. >> yes >> do you think it's cute that i realized that the house usually wins don't they have beautiful buildings in las vegas they have amazing structures out there. apparently they've gotten the money from somewhere to do that than the stocks. okay andrew we're going to --

>> we've got a lot coming up on the show as we get ready to close out the third quarter. what's working in the financial sector here's a hint. it's not what you're thinking when you think of financials think about that as we head to a break, delivering alpha is back for the tenth year tenth anniversary on september 30th with a huge lineup. you can visit delivering alpha.com to register. so many great folks joining us next year. you do not want to miss it stay tuned, you're watching "squawk" right here on cnbc.

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time now, time now, yes, it's time now for sectornomics was that you >> that was not me we do it once a month. it's kind of like you can set

your clock for it. >> people wait for it. >> it's kind of fun for me because it gives me a chance to focus in on one sector every month. this time we're doing financials because, joe, financials are the second worst performing sector in the s&p 500 so far in 2020 and it's second only to energy that's how bad it's gotten for many of the big banks and financial services companies in america. out of the 66 index members in the s&p 500 financials, only 12 of them, a dozen of them are actually positive so far in 2020 and none of them are banks we picked a handful of these names that you might have known of and heard of. msci, index and analytics is up 34% this year. insurance company, like progressive, up 27%. s&p global index and data up 27%. market access up 20% as well if you take a look at these

guys, the worst performing stocks are actually the banks. these stocks don't represent much of the overall index but they are the best performers nowhere near the size, of course, of the jpmorgans, bank of americas and citis of the world. something to pay attention to. back over to you. >> dom, thanks all right. quick out, beck. >> yup when we come back. we havbrkie eang data on durable goods orders we'll be back after this break

welcome back to "squawk box. rick santelli live here at cme hq awaiting august preliminary data on durable good orders some of the data is trickling out. durable good orders expected to be up 1.5% on the incomplete puzzle we'll get more as we get the final numbers. up .4% that is 1/3 of what we are expecting. it's still up .4 capital goods orders,

non-defense exaircraft a proxy for capital spending that one actually surged a bit up 1.8 this is expected to be up 1% up 4.3 was the june read that was a good read going back for several years. this is a good number and if we swap out orders for shipments, it's up 1.5. wow. okay now the revisions are coming in and these are actually fairly interesting. on the capital goods order proxy, nondefense, ex-air, that move from 1.9 all the way up to 2.5% shipments from 2.4 to 2.8. these numbers are pretty good except for the headline number which follows a slightly revised number to up to .4 that is something to pay close attention to, especially

considering that outside the service sector, joe, we're expecting manufacturing and some of these durable good orders and factory orders to hold up a bit better this is a bit of a disappointment back to you. >> rick, seeing mixed moves. joining us to talk more about the latest economic data and how the government might better target stimulus to those american folks, tomas phillips, former acting cea chair in the trump administration he's now at the university of chicago. can i call you sfloif what should i call you? >> tom works really good. >> okay, tom you're still worried that some of the unemployment insurance that we've done actually hurts the labor supply because it's easier not to work than works.

is that still an issue that needs to be -- that we need to be very aware of just for the overall economy? >> yeah. i think in terms of the stimulus that's on the table, i think two lessons we learned from c.a.r.e.s. are not really addressed, i guess, by the big government coalition on pelosi and actually mnuchin it looks like so the incentives -- there's two components of what we learned. one is obviously the incentive issue. i think it's under appreciated there's still even with the $300, there's a majority of workers facing more than 100% implicit tax rate on work. imagine me going on zip recruiter posting a job saying i want you to work for me but i want you to pay working for me very few people will sign off on this i think the economists are very, very concerned about those kind of dampening incentives on the labor supply side. the second lesson that comes out

of c.a.r.e.s. was the liquidity was not targeting enough there's obviously a lot of people that need help and covid don't have a market for what they're doing in certain groups and industries if you want but, you know, if you look at personal disposable income, i'm sure you looked at this program. it was four times the growth of a boom, of a good boom we had 45% annual growth in personal disposable income which is private income plus government income and in a boom we have, we're lucky to have about 10% analyzed growth in a quarter. that's telling you that it's not targeted enough and that you could have helped a lot more people with better targeting >> i mean, becker freedman you're not convinced that issuing government bonds, i.e.,, borrowing money and then giving

it to others as far as stimulus doesn't really help with total economic activity and jobs to increase now that sounds cold and obviously people are in need, but you go on to point out the most important thing we could do is get a vaccine, and i don't know if people -- some of your comments are interesting it's $15 billion a day it's costing us as the virus spreads in health and economic activity. in one day if we got a vaccine that would pay for all of operation warp speed, the whole $10 billion. >> yeah. >> if it was ready in january of 2021 versus june of 2021, that comes to $1.8 trillion what we've got to do is handle this virus through the vaccine. >> yeah. that's the best government investment i've ever heard of, when you get a return on $10 billion roughly, you generate

1.8 trillion so if you think of the deal, that's a pretty good deal. i think what's important now with the rollout is that mortality is so concentrated in the non-productive part of the population, i.e.,, the individuals, when you have 85% of the mortality is about getting the high risk people vaccinated it doesn't matter if the vaccination level is low once you take care of the high risk levels, you have broken the chain of the young people going into the market and old people getting it when they come home so i always advocated a two-fold strategy i advocated this in march this year to the president with sort of a low mortality, high growth

strategy where you take care, you isolate or invest in taking care of the high risk individuals. at the same time you let the low risk individuals or the young drive the economy. that's what the vaccine rollout needs to do. one way of doing that is basically making medicare a requirement for participating in medicare you get your shot as an old individual, assuming obviously that there's no severe side effects. we can sort of induce people, i think we should do that. make it an eligibility requirement for high risk individuals. >> so, tomas, your best case scenario, i don't know if it was arbitrary that you picked june to january of 2021, it's still

only september so there are still parts of the economy that could use some help. i don't know if you want to borrow -- you made the point about stimulus not necessarily offsetting the borrowing costs but do you have a targeted stimulus plan that would still make sense that you woul suggest to mnuchin and pelosi? >> i mean, you've got to separate between stimulus and liquidi liquidity. c.a.r.e.s. was very beneficial when we say you can't engage in the economy to still have you bridge over to when you can actually come back no one is arguing that we shouldn't help people with liquidi liquidity. the question is when you reshuffle money from treasury buyers over to, you know, recipients you're reshuffling you're reshuffling from

investment goods being demanded if you didn't buy treasuries to consumption goods beating the band when you send it to recipients aggregate is investment and consumption goods. it's no clear pathway by you -- by which you can basically reshuffle money and increase it. many times you decrease it because you're distorting a bunch of investment activity into treasury. >> that's not the only metric, decreasing or increasing aggregate demand or activity there are -- there are times where you know it's going to be an expense that you don't recoup how would you target the stimulus just for those that have been relatively -- just for a bridge for people in dire straits. >> that's not liquidity, that's keeping you afloat

there are certainly people hurting, don't get me wrong. there are a lot of people hurting out there. the fact that we made that disposable income and it went up four times is telling you that it wasn't targeted enough. what needs to be targeted are obviously targeted better are industries where we have this either group consumption or group production i call it entertainment, restaurants, all of those industries are unique in that the consumers get together and the ones that are most hit by covid should be targeted better. there's no room for having a booming home industry or booming car industry helped with no liquidity now. >> tomas, appreciate it. austan goolsbee is at a university of chicago. i'm assuming it's different.

what if you run into him on campus do you just like make sure that you are not in the same -- do you know him >> yeah, of course i know. we came to university of chicago obviously at the same time he's a great guy we have obviously intellectual disagreements but everything is fine. >> maybe a few maybe a few. anyway, he loves it. he loves it when i -- you know what, nothing better than having your name said when you haven't even done anything he loves it when i do that for him. you don't need to be separate. yeah, he is a great guy. i'm shu you are, too, tomas. very different opinion same university of chicago good good for the university of chicago because not all -- i don't think you see in that on all campuses anyway, thank you. we appreciate it some interesting notions there andrew >> great thanks, joe. great conversation just then meantime when we come back, september has been a very tough

month. tech seeing some of the worst action does that mean it's the perfect time to buy? question of the morning and we are going to talk about it. first as we head to break, check out the price of silver. high flyer just a couple of months ago dropped more than 1.5 percentage points today this would be its worst week in nine years stay tuned you're watching "squawk" on cnbc stock slices. for as little as $5, now anyone can own companies in the s&p 500, even if their shares cost more. at $5 a slice, you could own ten companies for $50 instead of paying thousands. all commission free online. schwab stock slices: an easy way to start investing or to give the gift of stock ownership. schwab. own your tomorrow.

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we've been watching the futures this morning still a mixed bag. dow futures down by 100 points s&p off by 8 nasdaq hanging in in positive territory up by 14 points. joe? a few stocks to watch this morning, beck. costco shares trading lower despite the company reporting fourth quarter earnings and revenue that beat expectations same-store sales rose by 11.4 better than the 7.8 consensus

estimate digital sales at the warehouse club grew an impressive 91% over last year. astrazeneca has received partial immunity from the eu regarding any potential liability relating to the candidate. they were asking a lower price for the treatment. the company would only pay legal costs under a certain threshold. andrew >> a lot more coming up, joe jim cramer's first take on the trading day coming up ahead given how mixed it's already been as we're closing out what's been such a wild week for the markets. plus, why tech has such a rough month and whether september is the time to buy. answer after this. you can't predict the future.

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let's get to cnbc headquarters jim cramer joins us right now. jim, we were just talking about costco those numbers were great stock down 7 bucks today i can't figure out why i know you were on the conference call last night did you hear anything? >> no. that was great they are spending 280 million on covid. i think some of the analysts think that should be lower they're doing bonuses for employees. they want that lower that's not costco's style. costco treats its employees great and, therefore, they stay with costco. they're doing what costco does there's people who say what's this going to be like after the pandemic is over i think they're going to retain

people can costco go down 10 points it has a bunch of times. every month they tell us, what a buy. it was just a good quarter it's going down. the same institutions banging down all morning what a call, what a quarter and stock threatened this is the great retailer of our time >> how are you feeling on this friday i know that we're looking at a rougher week for the markets overall even though we've been up two out of the last three sessions you're looking at a rougher month. what would you tell people as we're getting towards both the end of september and the end of the quarter? >> i think september historically has been such a bad month. in the last ten days of september have been the last worst ten days every year. so, i mean, it's natural, empirical. i call out this morning what's going on in europe, people don't realize.

it's a complete fiasco you have the cac down, germany down, spain down well, yeah, those countries blew it they just blew it. they opened up they encouraged people to open and look what happens. i know that we're -- i'm calling for stimulus because i i don't want the pressure to open up here because what it does is cause another resurgence europe is terrible uk is terrible we're better and i hate -- we're exporting their decline. it usually runs out between 10:30 and 11:00. >> that's why you are advocating for stimulus, but obviously we're not going to get that anytime soon from washington. >> no, it's terrible because -- there's some yelp numbers that rbc has listed today and the number of restaurants that are closing, the number of -- anything about hospitality is just failing through no fault of their own, becky. they are not running railroads where the business is good >> right yeah hey, jim, thank you.

it's good to see you. >> good to see. >> you we will check in with you in just a few more minutes to see more have a great weekend. >> you, too. >> andrew? thanks, beck kree. so questions of the morning is the recent selloff in tech stocks affecting other areas of the market to help answer that as well as talk about whether the recent pull back presents maybe a good opportunity to buy some of the biggest tech names we're joined by jay muster great to see you, gene. >> andrew. >> is this really a buying opportunity? i know tech is your thing, but tell us. >> it is and what we're really seeing -- neck, not all tech is created equal. to answer your question, this is not a blanket buying opportunity, you really need to pick the pockets if we can about faang this fraction of faang we have talked b the have's and the have not's, on the have side we have apple and i know this is an overcovered name but i think that there's massive upside to this stock specifically if you just look out two years which i think is a safe bet with apple because its

earnings stability and put a 35 multiple on it you get a $200 stock. i think that the specific piece that's misrepresented in this is what they're going to be doing not only around wearables, but augmented reality and ai this is part of this key about trying to really excavate the opportunity in tech right now is to look at companies that are fundamentally changing the world and apple is one of those, still i think a relatively inexpensive stock. then you have google and amazon, i think those are also ones that are in the buy category here we see that line and on the bottom end of that line on the bottom fold is facebook and netflix, these are stories that we would be less optimistic about because they're simply not changing the world, but i would also put another factor into this conversation about where to put your money specifically in tech and what we've seen more recently is there is a lot of performance coming from some of these late stage private companies that have recently become public, we think about

jfrog, we think about companies like snowflake, palantir next week, we're investors in unity that's another one that that piece is going to be -- that is the golden opportunity here ultimately for investors as you think about your tech portfolio is really how does the average investor ultimately get a piece of that late-stage piece, those late-stage companies that ultimately will become the next faang. because what's worked in the past won't work in the future. >> so, gene, the flip side of this is do you think that there is real regulatory pressure that could create a challenge to an apple given what we're hearing >> the simple answer is that this is going to be -- there will be some form of pressure on apple shares re lated to the multiple because of this all the big tech companies will be part that have conversation tim cook recently has said they have less risk because their goal is to make the world's bess

products and by definition when you have the best products it's difficult to have high market share which puts you at risk for regulation, but i do think that the company still needs to navigate, i think, some of its policies related to -- navigate some of the conversation around regulation and so they will be a part of that if you just put it all together i think the simplest path forward is that the companies that are going to really be the center focus of this is going to be companies like facebook and google yes, apple is going to be part of the conversation, but at the end of the day i do agree with tim cook and their view that lower market share ultimately creates -- makes it more difficult to build a case of regulation and, again, i would just anchor, yes, we have a lot around regulation here and a lot of that conversation is going to continue in the months and years ahead, but most importantly which companies are going to become more fundamentalto our lives and i think apple is

squarely at the foundation of those companies. >> okay. so if i gave you 10,000 bucks right now you could only put it in one place what would you do >> one question, what's my time horizon? >> i will give you -- >> a year? >> three years three. i will give you three. >> $10,000, three years, i would do apple i think that -- >> you would do apple. >> apple i think -- i think investors are underappreciating the amount of earnings that this company can generate over the next three years and ultimately i think that it is also another factor in there, too, i think it is -- has a safety factor to it but also has upside relative to the multiple if i'm right that they do capitalize on this wearables, on augmented reality, on artificial intelligence, all of that, i think that this -- with a three-year window this stock still has measurable upside.

>> of all the companies, you could have chosen amazon, you could have chosen netflix, you could choose anything in the world, apple is where you put the money? >> exactly it's got the two factors that are most important, it's got stability today and separately it has massive untapped markets we talked about. one thing we haven't talked about is the 5g -- a three-year upgrade cycle around 5g. that first year is going to be a disappointment, i want to emphasize that to investors that it's going to take some time for g 5 to get going for apple, but that's why that three-year investment horizon is really important because that will capture what i think is going to be accelerating iphone growth in the mid teens that will be sustained for three years. when you put it all together it's going to surprise people. >> okay. gene munster, always good to see you. thank you. >> thank you >> talk to you soon. joe, 10,000 bucks, are you going to put it on apple or bitcoin?

>> i'm going to put it on probably some -- some ncaa games tomorrow, i think, and i may do it -- >> you're going to lose. >> yes, i am. >> just handing the money to draftkings you might as well invest in draftkin draftkings. >> i looked at a couple of them and i really have a good feel for a couple of them tomorrow, i think they're shoe ins and the reason i brought this up is because of what they want me to talk about here and that is a big market mover this morning, british betting firm william hill, a target of two separate takeover proposals, william hill said it got cash bids from apollo as well as caesars entertainment and discussions with both potential buyers are ongoing. the size of those bids were not disclosed, but, i mean, it's just really -- we're right at the beginning of this and if you leave new jersey, you can't -- i don't know, there's a couple other states, but i just don't know what it's going to look like in a little while and it can be a really cheap form of entertainment if you do

just put a couple dollars down on these things. >> it's one of the classic covid stay at home sort of plays, right? >> maybe that's true, too. >> you can't go anywhere else so the money you might have been spending on other things get funneled into this. >> i love baseball, i love the reds and everything, but it's been years and now in the morning i look on mlb to see if there's a 1:00 game and i look forward to, oh, look, the pirates are going to play -- or whatever it's just really -- it's enriching, i think maybe it's a covid thing maybe it's a covid thing because, you know, you are at home -- >> you're not going anywhere, right? >> exactly but it's fun. >> on that note, watch the cruise lines today because that's got the opposite impact from everything when people aren't going on cruises, but barclays is actually upgrading the cruise stocks, carnival, norweigian and royal caribbean, it has all of them at overweight

from equal weight. the analyst there says although the call may be early the risk/reward profile is attractive and is anticipating that cdc may make positive comments about a return to cruising when it addresses the issue in just a few days all of those stocks up norweigian up by 4%, same for carnival and royal caribbean up by 3.4%. let's also get a final check on the markets this morning again, it's friday yay. but it has been a little bit of a rough week for the markets and you're seeing more of that at least with the dow and the s&p futures this morning the dow is down by about 71 points, s&p futures are down by 5, the nasdaq is up by 32. as we spoke earlier this morning, with katie stockton, she pointed out that the tech names, the big tech companies are no longer leading the way down so that's been good news anyway, everybody, have a great weekend. we will see you back here on monday joe, andrew, you guys have a great weekend, i will see you back here and right now we will

turn it over to "squawk on the street." >> tuesday is the debate ♪ good morning, and welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber along with jim cramer carl has the morning off let's give you a look at futures as we get ready to wrap up the trading week when we begin a half hour from now as it turns 9:00 that does take us to our roadmap. it begins with, well, what you're seeing, another fall in futures, the s&p is on track for what would be its worst month since 2011 with stocks set to post what would be the fourth straight week of declines. and as often is the case at this time, there is some vaccine news, at least one candidate saying they will have a billion doses ready by early next year and later, a $22 billion public debut, what are we going to make of palantir's latest valuation as it gets ready for that direct