all right, welcome everybody to "power lunch. kevin is with us dominic too. welcome, dom good to see you. here is what's on tap. stocks are at session highs right now after four weeks of losses the dow is up 500 points both the dow and s&p on track for their biggest two day gains since june high stakes stimulus how speaker pelosi says she thinks, think, republicans and democrats can get a deal done before the election and tom lee says that's just one reason to buy stocks he will join us very shortly later, which presidential candidate could be better for the economy and the markets? moody's is out with a new report that takes a look at those questions investors need to know "power lunch" starts right now

>> welcome to "power lunch." looks look at the bigger wins today. you have fedex leading the industrials over at deutsche bank raising target price to $318 a share both those stocks up around 2% virgin galactic getting two more buy recommendations. eight wall street analysts say the same thing buy this stock it's up more than 20% just today. on the coronavirus front, vaccine maker plunging as the fda puts its trial on hold while it awaits answers on a number of key questions putting it even further behind the time line of other big rivals in the drug business we'll keep an eye on those shares kelly, i'll send things over to you. >> dom, thank you very much. despite today's big rally the

market is still on track for its first down month since march when we saw the pandemic lows. bob has more on this action for us bob. >> kelly, this has been a very difficult month for the market it's not just because september is historically been the month this is true because we're essentially hostage to the reopening story and the store has been very choppy and difficult to interpret and the markets are reflecting that. let's look at the major sectors for the month here s&p 500 big cap stocks down 4% for the mopts but so are mid cap stocks and the small caps which i consider proxies for the reopening stories. the small caps are down 5% in terms of sectors, we're all over the place there's been poktckets of good news because industrials and materials have performed energy and banks are both in long term down trends. they reflect some concerns about the reopening story in general technology down 6% largely on

valuations what do you do you don't know what to do about reopening. you buy megacaps if you look at apple and this reflects the confusion buy megacaps because they are beneficiaries that work from home but apple goes from 138 to 103 this month that's not valuation play. that's a momentum play you see people confused over what to do it's bouncing back in last couple of days but that's a huge move on a monthly basis. look at all the reopening stuff. look at delta, for example the reopening news was better in the earlier part of the month. generally, the reopening name, the travel names like the deltas who did better this is a one month chart of delta. you see it moving up about 10, 11 days ago the reopening story got darker all the reopening names have travel names but industrial stocks ansz bank stocks all just sor sort of nose dive. that's the problem the market has is the reopening story going well or is it not going well we are and still remain hostage to that reopening story and to a

lesser extent to the stimulus story as well. back to you. >> thank you very much the other big question weighing on investors minds is where is the stimulus nancy pelosi saying a deal is still possible let's get to ylan >> reporter: the negotiations appear to be picking up steam. the treasury secretary ri and nancy pelosi had a phone call on friday they followed that up with another brief conversation yesterday and pelosi signalled another conversation could happen today it's unclear exactly when that will be. there is not much time left on the calendar the airlines payroll support program runs out on wednesday. the house is scheduled to go on recess on friday and they are not supposed to come back until after the election currently democrats are working on their own $2.4 trillion proposal pelosi is getting squeezed by

some of her vulnerable lawmakers to try to get a vote in before they go to recess. a letter said they demand a vote on a clean relief package that has direct assistance for those in need regardless of the white house or senate agree. we must show the american people that the house of representatives is open to negotiations and clear in our resolve. pelosi is in a tough spot as she tries to navigate the demands of the white house and the demands of her own caucus. back over to you >> if she gets something done in the house, what is the possibility that bill could carry in the senate? >> well, what passes in the house as a result of a compromised deal between mnuchin and med dose aadows and pelosi passing in the senate is quite high

>> all right thank you very much. ylan reporting and covering all of what's going on in d.c. with the possibility of more stimulus still on the table, even if just a little bit. that's just one more reason, i suppose, to buy stocks that is what fund strats tom lee says he joins us to explain why he thinks investors are too bearish after a rough side in september. it's great to see you. you have several bricks in the wall i will use that analogy there of rising stocks. one of them is that you think investors have become too bearish. in other words, the net of the positive thinkers versus the negative thinkers tilts way to the negative >> yes i'd say that's pretty accurate since march.

this rally has been strong the sell off since early september has increased the resoever of people who don't like this market there's still $4.5 trillion of cash on the sidelines just sitting there. that's about 20% of the s&p. we know retail investor sentiment is now showing negative sentiment similar to where we are in march 2020 then some data on commit m to traders on the future side show nasdaq speculators are the most short in 14 years. part of it is the back to school and flu season scaring people. there's so many elements i think people have to realize the positioning of the marks already reflects a lot of negative thinking.

>> i hear you there and read in a couple of newspapers about preparing yo preparing for the pandemic fall. no wonder people are scared. why would stocks go higher >> i should have said were we likely exited this session because of the pmis. it's definitely not a recession. unemployment rates match the great depression we were in a depression but i think we won't really feel its over until recovery in the labor market i think it's safer to call it a depression even if the economy is on the mends. >> tom, it's dominic here. i'm curious so much of the narrative of the market s around

what's happening with the trajectory of covid-19 infections, transmission rates it looks like that none of the upticks are having any effect on the market overall >> our data science team does track this really carefully. covid is shrinking or treating in 72% of the u.s. there's 26 states that is about 27% of the population where covid is really expanding and that's mostly the midwest. on the colleges what's interesting is data scientists can look at this college cases were about 12% of covid cases in sent. now it's down to about 8%. colleges are seeing a retreat in new cases which is surprising given the criticism of being back on campus it looks like colleges are doing

things let me close up with your thought now. we have an s&p in the 3300 area. where do you see it at year end and why? >> i think election day, the next 36 days maybe the market is going to do a lot of bobbing and weaving. post-election, some certainty comes back and the cash had to get deployed and the economy has got itself on a decent footing i think 35.25 which is 7 or 8% from here. that's a big move over three months >> that is a sizable move. great to have you with us. kelly. tyler, thank you so much coming up, we have more on the big market rally energy and financials leading the way right now with some big moves. energy is up 3%. moody eerks out with a new report revealing which

presidential candidate could lead to bigger rebound for the economy. a u.s. judge halting a ban on tiktok. giving the chinese owned app an edge as it negotiates a deal to sell it u.s. business. we have the latest from the court documents that were just ers ched the'mu more "power lunch" next not until i'm sure. why don't you call td ameritrade for a strategy gut check? what's that? you run it by an expert, you talk about the risk and potential profit and loss. could've used that before i hired my interior decorator. voila! maybe a couple throw pillows would help. get a strategy gut check from our trade desk. ♪ but a resilient business you cacan be ready for it.re. a digital foundation from vmware helps you redefine what's possible... now. from the hospital shifting to remote patient care in just 48 hours...

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welcome back moments ago the unsealed documents from the judge's decision to halt the ban on tiktok showed why the chinese

owned app may have an edge it is likely to succeed in provering the president cannot regulate personal communications and the government needs more info to prover it's the app, not just china that's the security threat joining us to dig in sarah fisher is a media reporter at axios. danny, i'll start with you because i do want to delve into some of the issues that the judge raised i assume it's true about the president not having authority over personal communications which is interesting >> the international economic emergency powers act gives president's broad powers to do things or restrict economic activities in the interest of national security but it contained some very narrow carve outs and some are that you can't ban just raw information coming in or personal communication you can ban communications that come in that have something of value attached to them but not

purely based communications or just information it's one of the few limitations on this federal law. this opinion was only just released it was sealed and the parties agreed to have it released it's just been released in the last few minutes we're just digesting it now. that's the judge's reasoning the federal law involved just contains some limitations. this fell within those limitations. >> sarah, it also suggested the judge said the u.s. would have to prove the app itself and not just the chinese were sort of the vulnerability or the problem here

in other words, should we all expect for this to be continued to be drawn out? >> i would expect so they haven't tied a concrete reason this app is sending information to china we haven't seen any definitive proof that tiktok sends u.s. data to china. >> danny, what would you say is the next step. with the judge's ruling does it become harder for the u.s. to proceed and more likely that tiktok continues to operate as is or does this mean the u.s. could resort to different kinds of, perhaps more severe

measures >> this is an injunction against the ban. it could start over fresh again which it's done in the past with imgrigs bans or executive orders and just redraft a new executive order or a new directive and take their chances with the courts the government has quite a few options here it can appeal this decision. it's only an injunction. it's a temporary fix but the court did conclude that the plaintiffs here, tiktok, are likely to prevail on the merits of the case. >> sarah, it's dom here. i want to speak in a hypothetical here. how exactly the social media industry, the landscape changes in a world where this tiktok ban, so to speak, kind of goes into play. how does everybody else fair and what changes >> a lot changes you've seen instagram come out and say this ban would be terrible for us and all social media apps what it could do is it would broadly divide the internet

between china and the u.s. the u.s. always had an open and free internet. we welcomed chinese companies to invest if this ban were to go into effect, you would minimize those deals and the ability for u.s. consumers to experience new products yes, tiktok is owned by a chinese company but 100 million americans use it it could be a stark divide moving forward for the internet, dom. how oracle and walmart will say we'll own 20% of a company called tiktok global and bite dance can say we're going to own 80% and oracle can say bite dance will have no ownership stake in this new entity

i do not understand the question of control of what ever company emerges to try and save tiktok's operating ability in the united states i don't get it >> that's been heavily contested. that's part of the issue leading up to this november 12th deadline which would have further restrictions on the app. tiktok's new bidders oracle and walmart aren't going it alone. there's some private equity firms that will go in on the deal i think this is the major discrepancy holding up a lot of this process china does not want to allow u.s. companies to own this thing. obviously donald trump says the ban on the app will go into play if the the u.s. companies don't own it i think the confusion you're speaking to is due to the fact we vice presidenhaven't negotia. the deadline is coming there's a few more weeks until the november 12th deadline >> thank you both for now. we'll leave it there

sarah and danny with the latest. kelly, still ahead on show, a first look at president trump's tax returns. putting a stunning $73 million tax refund and an audit by the irs in the spotlight we have the details on those stories coming up. talk about a moon shot shares of virgin galactic are soaring. two more analysts on wall street say you have to buy this stock do traders agree we'll find out after this break. that's what my dad does. good job, michael! ok, lindsey now tell the class what your mommy does... my mom has super powers. it's like she can see the future. what?! it's like she time travels in a rocket ship. that's cool! and then she comes back saying "try this" or "try that." she helps everyone. she helps them feel less worried. wow! mommy, so what is it that you do? i'm a financial advisor. she is! aig proudly supports all the professionals taking care of our financial futures.

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the company is being called an innovator and space tech. the growth potential is unparalleled space tourism has the potential to be a $3 billion market by 2030 seems like demand is there tickets, 600 have been sold so far for virgin galactic.

your thoughts on the stock >> i'd like to see people return to commercial air flights before we spend too much time thinking about it we're back to the level that the stock was offered at the secondary in august. you'll have time if you want to take the risk. we do not own this stock i understand why people are excited about it 200 to $250,000 a ticket limits the potential clients. i think we need to see them begin operations and that happens in the first quarter of 2021 and see where we go from there and how this catches on. i'll say quickly, i flew the concord back in the '90s it was luxurious the seats weren't terribly comfortable but the whole experience was awesome it took one crash for people to

say, yeah, that's okay i'll spend the extra four hours going across the ocean >> i would love to see that come back >> i would too it was a blast >> what do you make of virgin galactic clearly kpie lly exciting. it's been public about 11 months a and now up 23% on the day. >> a trip in space sounds great right now. we're looking at speculative natures as nancy said of what's going on with virgin galactic. the out of home experience is what they are targeting, the nigh network individuals even people in this time are tightening the belt and making sure they assess every cost and

everything they do we have to see if this plays out when they are looking at beginning operations of the good time and people will jump on board for that >> all waiting to see. thank you. for more trading nation head to our website. tyler, i got to ask you. could you, would you take a virgin galactic aircraft up to space, if you could? >> i don't know. i don't think i would yet. i'm a little bit of a chicken. >> i'm with you. two chickens >> two chickens. bawk rjts t new reports showing years of financial losses and tax avoidance from president trump we will take a deep dive into the numbers and question whether what he did was what anyone would have done given the state of the tax code. jack maw heading for a long

awatsed record breaking ipo. here come the ants chip stock surging in popularity among young investors. we'll ask which are the best names in that space right now.

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welcome back, everybody. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. a cyber attack has disabled some computers at one of the largest hospital systems in country. united health systems has more than 400 hospitals this is believed to be one of the largest medical cyber attacks in u.s. history.

new york is extending its moratorium on residential evictions until january 1st. the ban covers eviction warrants issued before the pandemic shopping in crowded stores is considered a high risk activity according to updated guidelines from the cdc. you can go to cnbc.com to see how the retailers are changing their holiday sales strategies take a look at this. in norway some fresh footage of melting glaciers shows a chunk falling into the sea another glacier has suffered its largest annual loss of ice in the 54 years since the records began. you're up to date. that's the news update i'll send it to you. markets are very much in the green. positive territory here are the highs of the session. if you look at the moves, we're down about 4% on the month for

the s&p 500 but every single sector so far today behind me is very much in green territory you can see they are led by financials and energy. health care, communications and utilities are the laggards in trading today. only up about a percent. check out what's happening with the dow movers you have boeing leading that up about 6% or so. chevron, also up 3% as energy helps lead the market higher oil prices also in focus today tyler, i'll send things back over the you speaking of energy, the oil market closing now for the day let's go to eric for some numbers. hey, eric. >> that's right. oil prices edging slightly higher to start the week with both wti and brent up about 1% prices supported by how congress can put together another stimulus package but rising virus numbers are causing traders to worry about a lack of

demand russia's energy minister warned of the risk of a second wave wti is down 5% this month which would snap a four month winning streak heavy clashing between armenia broke out over the weekend reigniting concerns about stability. thank you very mump. the new york times is giving u.s. voters the first look at president trump's tax returns over the past two decades. revealing quite a few twists and turns in his financial foot prints robert frank, who knows all things well has the details. robert, this is a big story. >> it's a big story and some big numbers. the president paying no federal income taxes for 10 of the last 15 years and only $750 in 2016 and 2017 that according to the new york times account of his tax returns. the reason for that low tax bill

is business losses offsetting his income the president earned over $600 million in income after 2005 most of that from his star turn on the apprentice which earned him over $400 million during that time. he used that cash along with a lot of borrowing to buy a number of golf clubs and lease the washington, d.c. hotel those investments generated tax losses of hundreds of millions o of dollars which helped to raise his tax bill doral losing $162 million through 2018 and the washington hotel losing 56 million. one bright spot here is his club in palm beach paid the president $26 million before 2018. that is three times his previous pay. president today calling the story fake newsand saying he paid many millions in taxes but was entitled to tax credits.

that's common in the reality industry what the times says he has $421 million in personally guaranteed debt, the president saying i have very little debt compared to the value of his assets back to you. >> robert, i've heard a number of arguments on this front i would just point out that a business school professor at a noted top business school wrote in saying there's a 1935 supreme court ruling that gregory versus helverling the legal right to decrease or avoid them by means which the law permits cannot be doubted. is the president being chided for doing something that was his legal right to do? >> the basic strategy of using business losses to offset income is widely used among owners of private companies and wealthy taxpayers. that's undeniablundeniable the question is whether he did

anything that violates the tax code which is why he has been under audit for this huge deduction that he took in 2008, 2009 that he got back from the government of $78 million in the past few years the questions around that rebate that he got from the government and the use of that, that's going to be the result of this audit and only then will we know whether what he did was proper the basic strategy, you're right, it's quite common >> all right robert frank with the latest on the trump taxes. thank you for that tyler, over the you. >> thank you it's been about six months since the start of the pandemic. while early stock market losses have been reversed, the economy is still trying to recover and get on firm footing. 35 days away now from the presidential election. recent report by moody's analytics chief economist says a biden win would be better for the economy and could bring as many as 7.4 million jobs, more

jobs than a trump win would. joining us now to discuss those findings is mark welcome to the show. you were an add visor to john mccain, a gop guy. >> indeed. >> let's get to what you did and why you came to the conclusions you did. what were the various scenarios you looked at and why did you end upcoming to the conclusion that a biden win along with a democratic sweep of the house and senate would be the best outcome for the economy. >> we looked at four different political election outcomes. biden wins, congress split, sna senate remains republican. trump wins, kind of the sta ktu

quo. biden wins with the congress being democratic trump wins with the congress being republican if you take the two bookends, the democratic sweep and the republican sweep, that's where we get to a very different kind of economy at the end of the next president's term. that's the 7.4 million jobs. just in a nutshell and you can read the report, it's online you take a look. it's there in detail with the assumptions that three things drive that result. one is biden has a much more expansion nar fiscal policy. that's lots of spending on infrastructure, on health care, education, housing, other social programs he raise taxes on upper income and households and corporations help pay for it but he also boar r -- borrows money to do it

he wouldn't pursue trump's trade war. he has been talking about rejoining an adjusted transpacific partnership that's the trade deal between the u.s. that excludes china because they don't play fair finally, immigration policy. very different president trump has been very restrictive on both legal and illegal immigration. biden would normalize that and that would lead to bigger labor force growth and more importantly in the long run, stronger productivity growth because immigrants tend to be risk takers. they innovate. i can go on but that's in a nutshell the difference between the two scenarios. >> it boils down to a biden and a democratic sweep being more prone to stimulate the economy you raise the question of biden's plan to raise taxes on the wealthy, to raise the corporate tax rate back to 28% what kind of non-stimlative

effect would that have on the economy? would it low the economy or would it really just slow the stock market >> you say i'm going to raise taxes, on that will be negative. you got to take that into context of the broader play. he's using the money to help pay for the other things that he plans to do. even under biden, when he's out spending that money and helping the economy, the stock market still doesn't really go that far and doesn't go anywhere because it has to contend with higher marginal rates on corporations

for stock investors, the biden plan isn't going to land you in a better place it lands you in the same place in the long run. >> right >> just google my name you'll go right to one of my sites. >> okay. that's how to get there. what happens to dhar powe s ts n a trump second term. do either fail to renominate him? do both renominate him >> that's another big difference biden is much more traditional we do our work in the fed.

we're not trying to influence each other obviously president trump has take an different perspective on that he's work really hard to gain control over the fed through his various appointments very different approach. >> interesting mark, always good to see you thank you for your help. we appreciate it >> sure. thanks for having me kelly. thank you very much. deals at alibaba's investor day. we'll talk about both of them. we're back in coa uple with much more "power lunch.

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could be the biggest ipo ever. baba has a 33% stake in ant financial which could be worth more than $200 billion mobile payment company is expected to start trading in october. shares of cleveland cliffs higher today on news it will acquire the u.s. operations of arcelor mittal for 1.4 billion in car and stock that deal expected to close in the fourth quarter the ceo of cleveland cliffswil appear today it will be in the 3:00 p.m. hour to discuss you don't want to miss that. he'll be there on the closing bell always a lot to say. still ahead, thousands of small businesses shuddering due to the pandemic, succession plans have never been more important. what business owners need to know that's coming up, next you can't predict the future.

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welcome back many small business owners are not sure how the pandemic will impact businesses and also the family finances. we have a look at why succession plans are so important and under threat right now sharon >> kelly, this crisis has create md unknowns for small business owners, who would run the business if you were sick? how will you be able to sell your business in the middle of a pandemic here is how one business owner is managing through the issues >> reporter: adrian's small business serves food to those in need >> we're catering and provide meals for senior citizens and disabled vets throughout new jersey >> reporter: but losing a loved one made her think more about her future and the future of her business >> with, you know, the passing

of my father, things are brought home very quickly. and i realize, like, not only do i need to do things in place for myself, i need to put things in place for my employees because life is short. >> reporter: she says working with a nonprofit organization that connects entrepreneurs with financial advisors has helped. >> you're putting your livelihood and often for people their largest or second larges asset at risk by not thinking about all of the what ifs. >> reporter: many shall business owners never plan for who could own or manage their business if they're unable to do so. and a recentsurvey found that only about half of those that do have those plans in place are highly confident that their business will be able to survive. >> is your plan documented somewhere? have you expressed your plan to other people specifically those that are named in the plan. are you taking the time to prepare them and have you revisited your plan

to make sure it's still meets your current circumstances >> reporter: she also has answers to some of those questions. she wants her sister to run her catering company if she is unable to do so and she'll bring her small team up to speed on her plan soon. but first, she wants to review intentions with her financial adviser and put it in writing. kelly? >> sharon, thank you very much cnbc and acorn is teaming up with the kaufman foundation for a virtual town hall for small business owners on september 30th to register go, to townhall.cnbc.com. >> all right still ahead on the show, the chips etf, smh is up nearly 70% since the march lows according to new data, those names are popular with gen-z, millennials and boomers alike. we'll dig into the numbers aer isreakft

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♪ welcome back a new report shows millennial investors betting big on chips, the semiconductors, spacs, electric vehicles and stay at home trade kate rooney has the full details. kate >> hey, kelly. millennials were big on a few sectors in the third quarter starting with electric vehicles. according to a new report from apex clearing, younger traders made, "aggressive moves into those stocks." for example, tesla dethroned apple as the top traded name among millennials. am nio moved up 34 spots on the

list of the top 100 picks. and work horse also got a boost. they got in on the buzz around spacs or special purpose acquisition companies. they saw two electric vehicles spacs going to the top 5 the outlier is nikola. it made the list but drop 40 spots. stocks benefit from the pandemic continue to make a splash as well peloton dropped 41 points in popularity across generations, it's still all about big tech though. the report which looked at more than 1.3 investment -- 1.3 million investment accounts showed apple, amazon, tesla and microsoft in the top five for every generation and finally, chip stocks nvidia and amd joined the party jumping multiple spots across gen-z and millennial and boomers' top holdings

>> it's not just the millennial that's love chip stocks. etf sicker smh is up 19% this year with names like nvidia and amd leading the way higher but with the u.s. setting new restrictions on the top chip makers, could the sector be heading for trouble? joining us is analyst at mizho securities we just heard the report what part of semiconductors, they go into everything these days which theme is the biggest one 5-g? autonomous driving cloud? et cetera? is. >> thank you for having me on. like kate mentioned, if you look what secondors ators are immune be auto industrial they should be strong as well.

there is strong growth on the software side. definitely nvidia and the gaming side is a standout in terms of what we're seeing in gaming. retracing and driving, there is also ai just for all aspects of industries >> all right we just got a few moments left here i'm curious, v.j., what parts of the semiconductor space you would stay away from given the bullish trends for all the other ones >> we think at this point most of the industrial and gaming seems strong i think there is obviously some worry. and some of those sectors that are exposed to the china supply chain. so that's where you're staying away you're seeing some impact in this sector and taking down the risk in some of the names.

if you look at this, it looks good especially because across the board supply chains riare impacted thank you, we appreciate it. thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" is going to start right now. >> thank you so much welcome to the "closing bell." stocks surging to kick off a new week of trading. looking to close out a sluggish september on a high note let's have a look at what is driving the action potential optimism for a new round of stimulus giving a boost to sentiment house speaker nancy pelosi says another plan from house democrats is still possible. m & a activity heating up in steel and energy spaces and talks of casino combinations too. and every dow stock is higher as we enter this final hour of trade with boeing and the banks leading the charge he would have