thing. in march when disney did close its theme parks, that was the oh no moment the market had of this is really serious. i don't think this is anywhere near on that scale but it harkens back to that time. >> markets closed down here about .5% today. all eyes will be on the debate i'm mdominick chu in for melissa lee. tonight's trader line-up guy ada adami, tim seymour, dan nathan and karen finerman tonight, we are all over the after hours action on micron the company's earnings call is now underway we're listening in plus, more on today's retail wreck. names like macy's, nordstrom,

gap, all falling very hard as you can see there. we'll go shopping for opportunity in that retail sector later on, buy gold now that's the message from one top wall street firm we will debate if there is any shine left in that big trade we start first with breaking news out of disney the stock is moving lower in the after hours session as the company announces some very, very major job cuts. let's get to our own julia boorstin with the details. these are tens of thousands. >> that's right. disney is laying off 28,000 domestic employees, hourly, sal rye e aried and executive roles. in light of the prolonged impact of covid-19 on our business, including limited capacity due

to physical distancing requirements and the continued uncertainty regarding the duration of the pandemic exacerbated in california by the state's unwillingness to lift restrictions that would allow disneyland to reopen, we have made the difficult decision to begin the process of reducing our workforce at our parks, experiences segment. disney had furloughed an estimated 77,000 employees before the pandemic. disneyland has an estimated 35,000 employees this is a meaningful piece of their domestic theme park division >> thank you very much for that. folks, let's trade this with disney guy, i'll go to you first for this i mean, we knew it was coming in some way

it couldn't have been that easy, we couldn't have gotten away that unscathed in this kind of a scenario with a theme parks business is it going to have a longer term impact in the next three to six months are investors already looking beyond that? >> maybe i'm just not paying attention but it wasn't as telegraphed, for me at least, as maybe it is for you. it is a bit of big news. i read this is 66% part-time disney probably employs close to a quarter of a million people. you can do the math and see it's almost 10% of the workforce. at this point you're trying to figure out where do you get into the name if you haven't. that 118 level was resistant forever until it broke out on a number of different reasons, not least of which was disney plus

coming to fruition given the news and given the way the stock has been traded, we'd probably get there but to me, what this speaks of is lack of clarity there is no way they would do this if they had clarity over the next three to six months, which clearly they don't have and clearly is concerning given how far we are in the timeline of this covid virus. >> this is much more a story about the portfolio of businesses disney has to offer from a media perspective tim seymour, as you take a look at the moves that disney has made, there is no doubt it has under performed this year, but not to the degree that other covid-impacted leisure and hospitality aspectaspects. are investors accentuating the positive on disney plus and other parts of the empire besides just the theme parks

>> one of the reasons why investors like me have held this stock for a long time is the diversification in the business. again, you have a ddt business that's not just disney plus streaming but obviously their consumer products, their studios, their cable networks and their consumer experiences disney crushed it last quarter on a relative basis because they controlled cost. at a time when we looked at this company for the last six months with a slightly different eye on their balance sheet, i'm happy to see this news dtc, disney plus leaning into this business before they hit the bottom end of their rage between 60 and 90 million subs for 2024 they got that now. to me, i'm happy to see -- as painful as this is and this is indicative of more labor market woes we're going to see in this country over the next three

months, it is important for this company to get as lean as possible last quarter they showed 1.1 billion in operating income profit nobody expected them to get to. >> i think it's important they're trying to get a handle on their expenses. you know the saying never let a crisis go to waste, so maybe there's an opportunity for them to get leaner and to have some cover for them to do that. as great a chollection of properties, as well as the studios that can't release things in studios that are sort of having a rough time paying for like a "mulan," i sort of think there's a little more downside to come remember, this company took on a ton of debt to do the fox deal so even if they start to get it together, the valuation is still expensive. it's a premier company it deserves a premier multiple, but it seems to me to have a

little bit more of a premium multiple than where it will even be last year. >> from an investor standpoint, what's the most important part of the disney empire or the disney narrative given what we know about covid, given what we know about the movie studios and theme parks? what part keeps you in the stock over the medium to long-term >> streaming has been the focus. remember, streaming is actually costing them money but that's okay. they need to be in the game. they're doing a great job of it, but they've got to get those theme parks open i know it's out of their control. i'm going to wait and watch. >> dan nathan, it seems like a lot of folks are going to be waiting and watching most ofthe analysts that cover this stock have a hold rating on it right now there's probably a reason why. what exactly to you need to see

to get more bullish on disney? >> i think guy hit the nail on the head right out of the gate it's just a lack of visibility in this parks business, there's two separate scenarios they have the much smaller park in florida which has been open but i don't think people are particularly going the one in california which they complain a little bit about the restrictions, there's also wildfires there. there's a lot going on that i'm not so sure people are going to be crowding into those parks any time soon before there is a vaccine for the virus or some sort of herd immunity. as i think about this story, i'd say this stock is actually acting pretty rationally when the stock broke down in february from 140, it went straight to 80 that's when the whole market was in a free fall the fact that this stock is back

toward that 120 level where it broke out from, i think, a year and a half ago when they announced disney plus, that makes them safe. if you can hang out here, i think it makes a lot of sense. i think you start picking on this thing on the long side between 120 and 110. >> according to cnbc.com, right now there are nine hold ratings on disney, 11 buy ratings and it looks like six strong buys, no sales, no underperforms. we have some breaking news on palantier. >> that reference price of $7.20 is particularly to a direct listing which is what did i hisy

based on where they've been trading in the secondary markets, that in conjunction with consultation with pallentier's advisors and the new york stock exchange. they all work together to come up with this reference price just to give traders a benchmark or guide post of where to start trading when that company begins its debut tomorrow it's expected to start trading tomorrow morning. $7.25 is more where the company was trading in august. in september it was up a bit more, about 9.17 pallentier is for data mining. they do that for governments and big corporations they said they were expecting about a billion dollars on top line gross

the company is still unprofitable it will be interesting to see tomorrow how it debuts the 7.$7.25 dls, it's important note no money is actually exchanged at this price. this is really just a guide post for traders for tomorrow morning's trading. >> at that $7.25 reference price, what is the implied valuation or market cap? >> it's about $16 billion at that point >> thank you very much $7.25 that's the magic benchmark number dan nathan, pallentier has been one of the highest public offerings. it is highly anticipated

is this a stock you want to get into at that $16 billion valuation. >> 16 times sales for a company like this that's not profitable that's been around for 17 years, it seems like in the public market they're going to have to layout a plan how they reach profitability and how they do that routinely then the stock can grow into the valuation we're seeing with a lot of these staff company where is valuations are off the charts to me, $16 billion to get into something i think is pretty interesting going forward i think is pretty interesting. i think with a new listing, you've got to see how this thing trades a little bit. again, they're not issuing shares let's see what the supply and demand looks like after a couple

days of trading. >> i do think there's a case where the stock has halready ha a market in this case, i think it's actually going to hold the share price down the difference is this is a company that now has a broader set of customers than just government in fact, that the power of their data mining software is something that will give them a high margin business it's a business where companies have been shooting to the moon, everything from salesforce to snowflake, you name it i think this is a widely anticipated name that people will want to own i think the valuation is fair. >> $16 billion at 7.25 for pal tier's direct listing. the breaking news keeps rolling on this time it's on regeneral ron.

the company just reporting some promising results for its coronavirus antibody cocktail. again, not a vaccine, a treatment for covid-19 let's get right out to meg tirrell. >> reporter: the first that's been designed specifically to treat or prevent covid-19. this is the earliest data we've seen on their approach they had data from about 275 people who are not hospitalized with the coronavirus or who are diagnosed with the disease they say they are seeing encouraging sign that is the drug may reduce viral levels and reduce symptoms faster than the placebo. they said they saw positive trends in visits to the hospital but the numbers were pretty low in this study because this is a group of patients that typically

does get better by themselves. they're actually delivering antibodies to the same way a vaccine might induce them or infection might induce them. the company holding a conference call right now analysts sounding pretty encouraged the stock is still halted. you can see the other companies involved in the antibody space lilly reported its resulted a couple weeks ago both of these companies are continuing to run trials in different populations as both treatments for severe disease and potential prevention regener positive signals, still early days, though, guys >> so let's toss this around guy, i'll go to you first with this

regeneron. >> i guess the good news is it's probably sold off 60 or $70, maybe 10 or 11% from the recent all-time high. maybe there's an opportunity to get in depending on what it looks like on the reopen the entire space has been really interesting. eli lilly is up considerably from its all-time high gilead has been a trough now for the last couple years. i have no idea what moderna is doing, if it's high or low in the after hours. in terms of the broader market, is this the news that's going to

get us back to that 3393 level in the s&p is or is this a nonstarter for the markets to me, that's the most interesting thing out of all of this >> karen, are there names that stand out to you, the ones you feel are more promising, whether they be on the spectrum of vaccine or treatment or anything else >> there's are the vaccines promising and there's a question of do you want to own the stock. do i want to own the stock definitely not you've seen names like moderna up huge and then down. even if they get there, we don't know what the pricing is going to be, we don't know how they're going to manufacture enough doses. that's a lot of things to figure

out for each particular company. on the whole, i don't feel like i'm able to do it. so if i wanted to be in the space at all, i would do it through an etf i wouldn't play particular names specifically for a vaccine. >> as we look at this, dan nathan, is there anything about this entire industry do people just want to be long biotech as part of their portfolio? this is n >> that's a good question. when you think about the money and the mind share focused on this industry over the last nine months or so, it is truly remarkable when you think about the work on the treatments and the vaccines the fact of the matter is that a treatment is fantastic there's going to be a bunch of them some are going to work

we're talking about a treatment right now in 275 patient where is half of them got a placebo. let's keep it real here, people. none of these vaccines or treatments in the near term are going to open disney world in the near term. when i think about this space, i want to think about abbott, i want to think about these rapid testing systems. that is probably the easiest way to get schools and businesses open that haven't been open. a lot of people are going to be really skeptical about some of these drugs. until we can have them in mass quantities and until we have enough time to evaluate the efficacy of them, they're not going to do what the stock market thinks they can do in the near term. coming up, we're all over the action in shares of micron as well.

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breaking news. in just the last hour or so, we heard that disney is planning to lay off around 28,000 people across all sectors those shares down 1.5% right now on nearly half a million shares of after hours volume. we'll continue to monitor that story. we are also following a developing story out of washington, d.c. over a new proposed $2.2 trillion stimulus plan >> reporter: a source tells me that treasury secretary steven mnuchin is likely to make a counter proposal when he talks to house speaker nancy pelosi tomorrow now, the two of them already spent 50 minutes on the phone today discussing a $2.2 trillion

stimulus plan from the democrats. so far there have been some positive signs from both parties. pelosi has said she's optimistic white house chief of staff mark meadows said he is hopeful that progress can be made the white house recently signalled it would be willing to go up to $1.5 trillion we'll see if that number changes tomorrow there are several areas in which the white house and democrat dos agree. the democrats' bill includes $180 billion for j caseducation. there's also an extensigsion ofi for the hardest hit businesses the question remains how much money for unemployment assistance or direct checks to consumers. those are the line items that will determine whether or not these talks move forward or fizzle out once more

>> thank you for the latest on the d.c. deliberations how are stocks hanging on these hopes for a stimulus package karen finerman, how important is that, the extra money from the government, if it comes, to the overall market >> it's gigantic i think that for the market we have sort a month ago priced stimulus as near 100%. obviously that didn't happen now i think the market is pricing, i don't know, something like 10%, 20% if it actually does happen, that's a giant boon for the market. >> tim seymour, we've been focused very much on what's happening with covid-19, the trajectory of the virus, the stimulus package just yesterday we talked about the fact that it's all a wash in liquidity. how important is this story given the fact that central

banks keep pumping out money >> karen has emphasized this is an important story just look at the s&p i think you have to look at it, once again, relative to where we came from. we came from absurd levels in august where the biggest companies in the world had blowoff tops the s&p fell 10%, the triple qs and the nasdaq close to 118% the s&p has rallied back up 5% simply to say i think you actually have in the last three or four days priced back in a fair amount of excitement about this 2.2 trillion coming it seems to me that this is a case where the market does need more at some point, however, i do think out any real delivery of this, the market is going to struggle and i think this 50 right now is actually resistance

on the market. the fed, as you pointed out and i will say all day long, is the ultimate story here in why i think the market has limited downside but i think it tests lower. we are just getting started here on "fast money. here is what's coming up next. >> announcer: it's never too early to set the countdown to christmas. will it be a happy holiday for retailers? or will they all get a lump of coal in their stockings? we'll dive into the debt markets to get some answers. ldd later we're looking at some goen opportunities in precious metals where options traders think gold is headed next ♪ ♪ "hmm's and ahh's" heard in-call. ♪

welcome back to "fast money. it was a tough day for retail overall. the xrt etf that tracks the space falling 1.5% today check out some of these mall-based names, macy's kohl's, nordstr nordstrom, the gap, all finishing deep in the red on the day. and your next guest says there could be even more pain ahead for some of these types of names. chris white, thank you very much for being out here with us let's talk about whether or not this retail trade can bounce back and how exactly do traders and investors play it. >> i think a big part of looking at the retail sector, the story is being told in the debt markets. obviously with covid-19 hitting the market in late february/early march, there were a lot of questions how retailers would survive. what we saw is that gap, macy's,

l. brands, nordstroms. overall we saw flat customer flow by volume, which just tells you that the bond investors themselves did not lose faith in retailers and actually were down in terms of buying and selling activities >> so i was going to say that following up on that comment, that implies there's some kind of a handicapping about the viability of these businesses if the debt markets and debt investors are getting in on the action what exactly can you glean, what is the likelihood that these brick and motor retail mortar rr come out on the better end of this 16 months from now? >> the story gets interesting when we get into june and we look at debt, mainly because the

retailers came back to the corporate bond market. the l. brands offering made a five-year deal macy's issued a secure deal for $1.3 billion that was the market accepting retailers back in terms of taking those off their hands and investing them we're seeing a differentiation as to how investors are reacting to retailers bond investors have been net sellers of macy's debt that's very concerning, because if macy's is going to have to up the incentive for investors, that means the cost of capital for macy's in debt markets is going to continue to go up

because investors have lost faith. they're going to have to borrow money to get through this storm and hopefully make it to christmas and maybe bounce back. if the cost of debt capital keeps on going up, it really reduces the chances they're going to be able to recover. >> credit spread is a key focus there. many of these companies can still borrow at semi or at tr attractive rates which of these retailers do you go towards >> so are not only better, they're leaps and bounds better. there have been a number of names. dollar general i think made an all-time high today. restoration hardware has been an absolute monster karen, tim and dan can speak to what's going on with walmart nike had ridiculous earnings the

other day. there are retailers here and there that have managed to navigate these waters extraordinarily well there's a reason why certain stocks are lagging and you don't go near them. >> maybe dan nathan, i'll turn to you here. i don't know if you have a position in it, but the other name that keeps popping up over the last several days on the all-time high list is target it's the big box-ish retailer that keeps popping up with a new record high incrementally every couple days or so. is target the kind of company you want to own in this environment? >> yeah, no doubt about it i think the grocery business was a really important part of it. it was obviously deemed to be an essential retailer during quarantine and that kept them in the game it also helped them accelerate some of the things they were

doing in the direct to consumer side i'll mention this about the xrt. tim has pointed out the relative outperformance here. this thing is breaking down a little bit, it's down a little less than 10% from its recent highs. playing for a pullback down to about the breakout level near 45 makes some sense to me especially despite those consumer confidence numbers that are very good, we're about two months now since those expanded unemployment benefits. if we don't get additional stimulus soon, i expect the xrt will test 45 to the downside in the near term. we have even more breaking news it's just a big afternoon for it this time it's on general motors and its deal with nikola phil lebeau, what can you tell

us >> we have confirmed through sources that the discussions between nikola and general motors, they were trying to hammer out a deal by tomorrow. that was the deadline that they had set for finalizing the deal when they first announced it on september 8th. obviously given everything that has happened over the last three weeks, there were a number of discussions and tistill are discussions between general motors and nikola. our sources tell us they will not finalize an agreement by tomorrow however, the discussions between the two sides continue we may see a deal announced maybe a week from now. that's still a possibility there's also the possibility things could fall apart. but to be clear, they will not finalize a deal by tomorrow. ho however, discussions continue. what we are seeing is a spike in the after hours in shares of

general motors, up 1.5% on roughly 83,000 shares of volume. meanwhile, you've got a drop in shares of nikola ne nikola is up 5% after falling on that amount just about half a minute ago or so very volatile trading on nikola. karen, this is a story that made a lot of waves because of the hindenburg research report is general motors still a stock you want to invest in? >> i'm long general motors, so the answer would be yes. i liked the nikola deal for them before the hindenburg came out

but i think they haven't negotiated a final deal yet. we may see a very different deal, a deal that's even better for gm than the one originally announced. even if they do, it's a bit of a black eye for gm i think it's an interesting deal for gm they can get a better deal than they cut originally. so i think let's see how it plays out. it will be either really good for them or they'll walk away with a little bit of embarrassment but having put no money up at all, i think they'll have to go on and look for the next product that hopefully will invigorate their ev business. >> there's certainly a difference between nikola and tesla. tesla is a different type of

company than nikola, a different part of the life cycle would you rather nikola or tesla at these levels? >> you can't do this to me, dom, please [ laughter ] >> it's a case where they are apples and oranges there's some commonality in both of these stories they're long on promises the story out of tesla's battery day was an enormous amount of high expectation and delivery and some discussion of the distance traveled and essentially the price per mega watt and what this meant for the next rerating cycle and ultimately whether they could deliver the model 3 profitably there's an argument that the profitability there has not been sustainable long-term. the story of nikola and gm is

one where you had gm saying this validates our fuel cell and battery technology that's something the market is still waiting to determine whether they want to apply nmore valuation to gm's other business i think bosh and the italian partner are also players in this that's how i look at this. >> a very, very interesting story developing right now with nikola and gm. we'll see if the deal closes in any different shape than we already know. mrocoming up, shares oficn are dropping in the after hours. the company's earnings call just wrapped up we will bring you that trade 20 years ago, i was an hourly

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert for you on micron. those shares are dropping in the after hours session off 3% right now. let's get to josh lipton with the details. >> i did check in with one micron bull. his opinion q-1 guidance, he

sees tight supply and strong demand by the spring in important markets that micron serves like cloud infrastructure and 5g phones. on the call the ceo talking about end markets, optimistic that they will keep improving after 2021 the pandemic has taken a toll on the economy. also restrictions on huawei. micron did halt shipment to that chinese giant on september 14th. huawei accounts for about 10% of micron's sales >> big interview tomorrow on squawk alley guy adami, we talked about yesterday about the big narrative going on right now with chip stocks, china, the

u.s., the overall macro narrative. micron, is this a stock that you want to own, guy >> at a price. the good news, i think, for micron was probably 77% of their revenues revenues up 24% year over year i think the quarter was really good margins were good. i think the reason the stock is lower, in my opinion, is first quarter guidance was lousy if you go back and look $46.50 had been support and resistance and support again. that makes sense on a number of different metrics. the hope is micron is not becoming the cyclical name that plagued it for many years. >> year to date that stock is 6wn%. much more coming up on the

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mike khouw joins us with the action mike, gold, what's up? >> take a look at the gold etf which saw calls significantly outpace puts earlier today, the result of a large buy of the december call butterfly, buying 10,000 of the 190 calls, selling 20,000 of the 200s the buyer of that call was risking more than $750,000 betting gold could rise more than 12% by december educatioxp. >> tune in for the full show fridays 5:30 p.m. eastern right here on cnbc much more on the disney trade micong up. the company announcing some big layoffs. we will get analysis when we come back. ♪

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welcome back to "fast money. let's recap the big breaking news that we brought you at the top of this hour disney announcing major layoffs,

the company slashing 28,000 jobs in its parks, experiences and products division. disney taking sharp aim at california in its release saying, quote, in light of the prolonged impact of covid-19 on our business, including limited capacity due to physical distancing requirements and the continued uncertainty regarding the duration of the pandemic, exacerbated in california by the state's unwillingness to lift restrictions that would allow disneyland to reopen, we have made the very difficult decision to begin the process of reducing our workforce. yes, they are blaming in some ways the california state government for this. this is a huge deal. it's a lot of jobs leading up to an election. what does disney do in the

coming weeks and months to try to get its business back on track? >> really we were taking the long view that we always thought it would be a multi-year effort to get back to prior levels of profitability. this shows that maybe it will be on the top line. maybe it will be a combination of revenue coming back with cost cutting as well. it's good it shows the company is malleable but at the end of the day this is a massive amount of jobs that are leaving we've been waiting on california to come back universal's been saying the same kinds of things about trying to work with the local government to get them to reopen and they haven't been able to. >> what is the biggest hurdle, i guess, that disney as a company will face in the coming weeks? what can they do to get investors back on the bullish side of this trade >> i think that the reason why

you own disney is because of streaming and because of their content. really there's so much uncertainty in all of media, whether that be parks and studios and people going back to theaters even on the advertising side, the one thing that is working for media companies is streaming. with disney plus we're waiting for an announcement on their star plus platform going outside of the u.s we think that's going to get investors to talk about where the next 100 million subscribers is going to come from on the streaming side right now they're close to 100 million. netflix is at 200 million. >> disney bulls have been accentuating the positive around disney plus for months now but i'm curious, you heard me

just read the statement that disney issued with regard to why they're conducting these layoffs. they're laying a lot of this responsibility at the feet of lawmakers and regulators in california for not letting them reopen and do business the way they want to do it >> it comes back to what's going to be going on with the numbers. we expect them to get back to prior levels of profitability over a multi-year period it might be a combination of the top line and cost cutting. what's interesting is that it seems like the parks business could be changing. your parent company comcast had plans to start construction on another major company in orlando and has completely paused on that plan because it's uncertain what the next generation of parks should look like

maybe it's less people and tickets cost more and you have less people working there. maybe that's how this ends up. >> let's trade it. i take a look at what's happening right now and maybe for this particular one i will turn to you first, dan nathan. this is very much about a company saying this is not our fault. is it not their fault? is disney not able to do this because of what's happening on the state and government side of things >> here's the thing, disney. welcome to the earth in 2020 none of it's our fault here, okay to blame the state or something like that because the state doesn't want you to have a super spreader park open, i don't really understand that i don't think that really buys you anything right here. we're all in this thing together listen, sadly 28,000 employees are going to be hurt here.

there's 13,000 employees who work in the restaurant business. it's not feasible for a lot of those restaurants to be open in the capacity they wish to be it's a really bad situation for a lot of workers corporate whining about it, to me, doesn't make a whole lot of sense. >> other travel and leisure stocks are far worse off than disney are there other parts of the travel and leisure space you would look at? >> no, i haven't just because i feel like there's so much debt there. they want to survive they want to get back to the part where they can be profitable again, so they have to do it with debts. we talked about the airlines, how much debt they should take on versus the gift from the government but it's bad everywhere. you know, i don't understand the rhetoric against california as well that doesn't really make sense to me. i do think a headline like a

disney laying off 28,000 people and maybe we'll see airline layoffs later this week, i think that puts pressure on the government to reach some sort of stimulus. >> guy adami, what's your take-away? travel and leisure, is it investable >> no. california has more problems than a few,000 peop thousand pee getting on mr. toad's wild ride. time for the final trade tim seymour? >> first, happy anniversary to my beautiful wife. second, alibaba. i think this is a company that is cheap relative to the mega cap peers. aliba alibaba. >> dan nathan? >> i'm long tim and leah's wedding here i like abbott labs here. >> karen finerman?

>> a name we haven't talked about in a while >> and guy adami. >> newmont mining. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to ""mad money." welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i want to make you money. my job is to entertain and teach you. call me or tweet me @jimcramer as we get closer to a vaccine, this market is dominated by the post covid future.