midnight pass with no new deal how many airline workers are waking up to no jobs the latest on the vote on the bill giving them more time to talk futures pointing to gains to kick off the fourth quarter. getting you ready for the earnings and data. it is october 1. it is a thursday, october 1, 2020 "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen

becky is off today all breaking five-month win streaks with the dow the big loser. still a good quarter i should say a very good quarter. the dow gaining 7.5% take a look at u.s. equity futures this morning let's show you where things stand as we speak. the dow up triple digits s&p looking to open higher nasdaq about 140 points hire overnight, tokyo stock exchange suspended trading after a glitch blaming a hard wear problem followed by a failure to switch over to a backup device. the first full-day closure of the tokyo markets since trading

began in 1999. too much partying like in 1999 >> also in 1999, the year after was the year 2000. that was the last time the nasdaq had two quarters as good as this. it has been 20 years the nasdaq was up 45%. so it has been pretty unbelievable yesterday, we had worries about coronavirus. even in new york and elsewhere where there is high infection rates. we had sort of just the aftermath of the debate, which people said was unsettling just watching then we had one person say the speaker and the treasury secretary were going to talk a little more. more about stimulus again today. we didn't close on the highs we closed up three and change or

three and a quarter. it all seemed stimulus induced i have to ask you. is it all just sloshing around or does it help the economy gain its feet and keep things going and zha what the stimulus does does it improve the economy or is it more money searching >> both can be true at the same time >> there is a lot sloshing around and that might be a negative long term in the short term. growing the economy and getting people back into jobs, no question the stimulus is helping to some degree i'm sure people will say it has perverted parts of the system. do you step into the breach?

i argue you do because the alternative is that much worse having said that could create other problems >> this is fiscal. we have to pay it back you think of the fed, that creates them there that no one ever needs to account for. this, you are adding to a tab. there is debt service, right >> there is debt service >> they are not the same >> you think the debt hawks are coming back? i haven't heard about those guys on that side, no debt hawks. the other side, mmt. enablers in fiscal and monetary side of things and it is free flowing in the meantime, stocks are

higher let's get to lebeau. developing overnight, a deadline pass with no relief bill they are expected to resume negotiations today after the house delayed its spending bill vote the treasury has increased its offer to $1.62 trillion including $62 billion for state and local governments and $400 a week in enhanced unemployment. we'll auto hear more on that in the meantime, airline furloughs are here united and american will begin furloughing more than 32,000 employees today. you remember prior to you, is he the most famous lebeau?

>> i would say so. some football fans remember dick lebeau >> right >> let's talk about these furloughs. this is not good news for more than 32,000 airline employees who will start being furloughed. however, both american and united made it clear to mnuchin, they'll roll back these fu furloughs if they can come to an agreement. kicking in, starting today and will play out. american, 19,000, that united number, 12,000 closer to 13,000 and alaska with a little over 500. airline stocks were hoping yesterday, you saw investors pushing the airline index stocks higher the bottom line is this. these guys are expecting limited

growth they are in a mode where they are trying to bring down their cash burn which continues to be tens of millions at the same time looking at their debt levels saying how much more do we have to take. treasury department saying there are a number of airlines we've reached an agreement with. here is the debt load for the four largest airlines. american, delta more than 30, united more than 24 and southwest at 11. they try to build up as much liquidity as possible. most of these airlines are targeting getting down to break even eliminating the daily cash burn by the end of this year, if not, the first quarter. they have a long ways to go to get to that point. >> okay. i don't know

i don't know, phil you think as this is happening there will be increased urgency with the people trying to do this >> you would think there is enough urgency realizing today is coming. you can't blame the airline executives for pressing their case in washington they've made it clear that this was coming so look, do i think there is a possibility? sure anything is possible and that's good news for those workers being furloughed

>> for more on what is at stake. american airline pilots and a spokesman for the allied pilot's association. thank you for joining us not a good day, obviously. i think all americans desperately want to keep their jobs >> you may have heard this on an airline, captain coming on saying, we are going to have to divert that's what these massive amount of layoffs you mentioned with our ceo this is a bij

right now, we have to walk off this half built bridge there are 13 other jobs out there for every airline job. this is going to ripple and stream down to the economy we'll have tens of thousands of employees on unemployment, not contributing to the economy. it will risk recovery needed to pay back these debts these are things that are going to happen. having this cut now especially for pilots it takes months and months to get pilots back up and flying.

>> there are a lot of people asking the question, if pilots are furloughed pilots, supply chain in the airline industry how quickly do you think that they could get back to work? i know we are told it could take months and months. >> american airlines was on record saying 12 to 15 months to crew up an airplane. everybody has to train down. you have to pull back from the bottom and they train up by their own words, 12 to 15 months you are looking at a 12 month

window another six months, we believe we are a vaccine industry, a vaccine country. we have to have this bridge extended or we'll be walking through the middle of the river. and it will belong term and affect more than the airline industry >> just explain the 12 months or 15 months people are talking about. is that a training problem the reason i'm thinking about this if unfortunately i was furloughed or laid off, at my job, unless i went out and got another job, the second somebody made a call to me, i'm going to want to go back to work as soon as possible. if you say, you furlough them today and can't really restart for 12 months. i don't understand that.

>> that's a great question pilots are assigned to an aircraft and seat position we furlough from the bottom. all of our junior first officers are removed. that brings in a trickle down of training these pilots come out of the ability to fly and into training, which is also a narrow funnel there are only so many simulators and trainers. you bring those pilots back in from the bottom up, now you start stacking training on the upside something that has been in the industry since its inception it is complicated. it is a very large ship and when you stop it, it takes a lot to get it back up and running >> and money

>> what do you think the key sticking point is to get a bail out. >> we call it an investment. it will pay out more dividends everybody is in agreement. we are already there we just need that vehicle. that has to happen now i've turned my heading to an alternate destination. you know when you land at an alternate destination. we need that midair refuelling and hold near the field while the storm sits on it when it moves along, we can go right in and carry on with the business more about airlines and recovery of our country >> thank you

we wish you and our pilots everything in our industry as much luck as possible during what i hope is -- a terrible period but i hope a short one. thank you. >> joe >> adjusted earnings of $1.66 a share. companies producting full year earnings of $5.50 a share compared to $5.36. pepsi cfo will join us at 7:00 a.m. eastern palantir making its public debut. we'll show you the stock move and interyou have. we'll tell you why why court says subway's bread can't be classified as bread.

tune in to cnbc's new program with shepard smith that provides deep nonpartisan coverage of the day's stories every week night at 7:00 p.m. eastern we'll be rig bk.htac that's what my dad does. good job, michael! ok, lindsey now tell the class what your mommy does... my mom has super powers. it's like she can see the future. what?! it's like she time travels in a rocket ship. that's cool! and then she comes back saying "try this" or "try that." she helps everyone. she helps them feel less worried. wow! mommy, so what is it that you do? i'm a financial advisor. she is! aig proudly supports all the professionals taking care of our financial futures.

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welcome back, palantir made its public debut down from the $10 open and intraday high still well above the reference price of $7.25 shares now $10.24 telling us about the time line of this company's profitability. >> my lawyers will shoot me. i can tell you we are very, very focused on building software a long time before other people supplying it i think our first half of the year growth will be in the future if that's right, we'll answer your questions you may interview me again maybe not at davos but virtually. we'll see how we do.

>> wasn't smooth sailing all around employees complained they were unable to sell some of those because they couldn't transact on a platform. one former employee saying the system did start working later in the morning they experienced slowness that resulted into delayed log ins. this is one of those anticipated ipos every year, palantir was on the list, are they going to go public finally 17 years in, they founded 17 years ago, it is now a public company always described as a seek tiff company. hard to be as opec when you are public now >> it was imflied.

there may be more selling today. we are not seeing that yet >> unclear what p will happen to the price. it has been a lot of questions about broadly. how do you value it againstthe enter prize company, consulting companies on the other end and have a lower multiple and how you think about the government contracts and the corporate business they have a concentrated amount of clients two-thirds in the business comes from the top 20. seeing the number of clients or effectively growing the margin from the clients they have they have some of the bluest of the blue chips will be an interesting one to watch. >> if you were a long time

investor talking about the ipo. >> it made sense to me but maybe they were able to by the end of that >> foreperson people, there is a lock up. there is some kind of an overhang for a period, no matter what >> check this out. >> i like subway if it is not bread ireland supreme court argued that the bread served at subway restaurants can't legally be defined as bread to define other baked goods from plain bread contains five times the qualifying amount of sugar as a result, it is classified as

a confectionery. this is just in ireland at this point. i had no idea. i can find something there to eat. there is bread and carbs but they have a lot of vegies and other things i think it is the biggest chain in the world still >> may very well be. dids healthy remember, you can lose weight. >> ixnay on the asonjay. they don't want to bring him up. we don't want to bring him up. >> going to break. coming up, when we return a wrap up and theme from yesterday's delivering alpha conference. so much insight in one day

heading to the fourth quarter as we look to the biggest winners and losers the nasdaq winners and losers near to date ah!

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secretary mnuchin kicking off with some optimism unlike the prior 10 years saw industry titans beam through their web cams they minced no words about the election and subsequent tax policies >> saying stocks are going up no matter the election out come >> owning a variety of real estate expressed the impatience with the state of the economic reopenings >> it is time to open new york with protocols get back to work. that's what the economy needs. people need their jobs back. >> and saying their focus should be more on the consumer.

>> they need to put more money into their pockets if they have more than they need, americans are unbelievable at spending. more highlights at delivering alpha at cnbc. guys >> when you think about some of the comments, i felt like a lot of what he said in the morning was threated throughout all day. he also got some what political. there was an exchange over tax policy of all subjects that got heated at times over whether certain tax policy or stimulus was directed in the right

places if it was getting into the hands that needed it most or just blanketed with the relief and the standpoint from a few years ago. interesting conversation there senator warren talked about the policy as well i wonder if that is an oidsia of what we would see and the tax policy would once again come into focus >> thank you for bringing us those highlights >> new polling data out on how americans felt about this week's first presidential debate and what it could signal about the election survey showing 67% said a trump victory would be better for the stork market than a biden victory. we look at yesterday's s&p 500

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. take a look at u.s. equity futures. the dow looking like it would open higher. nasdaq looking to power higher as well. and the s&p looking to open about 29 points higher >> looking to snap a nationwide poll in reaction to the debate eamon is all gussied up even though he's at home.

>> i put on a tie every day for you. initially, i stopped with the tie because i'm working from home but then i decided i need to dress for success i'm wearing actual suit pants unlike some people who sit around sets in pajamas the headline number is startling. you 53% say joe biden performed better in the debate 29% said donald trump did a better job what is fascinating about that 29% is that 34% of responders said that they were trump supporters but only 29% said trump did a better job

so a slice of trump supporters felt biden did better. that is rare look at this number. did the debate change your vote? 2% 98% said no. that is as close to unanimous. if you go inside that 2%, joe. not one voter told us that they switched to trump from biden as a result of the debate we saw people switching from trump to biden and then to independent or third party how about this one a lot of people said they had an ichy feeling 77% said it did not make them proud to be an american.

what is it fascinating here. 98% saying they didn't change their mind as a result and 77% saying it didn't make them feel proud to be an american. yet, if you ask if there should be another debate, 55% said yes. 28% said no. a majority said they want to see another debate despite that they are not proud of it and it is not changing their minds, they still want the candidates to go through with it? >> that 34%. >> those were 34% who supported trump overall. >> i got that. but are all the questions the poll was asking to a group only 34% trump supporters >> then that's like some of the polls where you come out and you

find out, there are twice as many republicans or democrats. you are not going to get very good numbers if only 34% are trump supporters that's just the population that they happen. >> a fair question this is a snap poll quickly done over the course of the hours after the debate a national poll, not a battleground poll. these are likely voters. we've been doing battleground states remember, this is an electoral college fight. you can run up the score in california and new york -- this is a national poll so it is like a temperature check. >> i was checking out a new cut the mic thing here now they

might use at the debate. you didn't notice. i did that and we couldn't hear you. we are putting in some of the same systems here. >> that might work you didn't notice? >> i kept talking. felt great to me the president could keep going >> joe, i'm sitting here thinking my audio is out >> we'll get yelled at you know who i'm going to use it on, mostly, andrew >> we always had that capability that was sort of planned >> you need an ejector seat. >> i amuse myself. will they do this? at the next debate

wouldn't they say that's change the the ground rules is it possible someone -- is it possible that they would do that >> i imagine everything is agreed to between two parties. in the past years, it included things like the height of the podium every detail they would have to both agree to that chris wallace said something interesting in an interview about this he said, he has a lot of regrets and he felt like he was overwhelmed immediately and didn't get his arms around it. b, on the kill switch idea he said that might not even work because the president is relatively close to the biden microphone and picked up anyway. practically, that might not

work. >> do you remember when reagan said -- i'm paying for -- >> i paid for this microphone. >> you think of the controversies in the past. george h.w. bush got in trouble for looking at his watch that was terrible because it looked like he might be bored. al gore sighed a little bit and people were like my god, he's disrespectful. he walked over to bush and that was -- >> five steps. it was the end of the world. >> trump was looking at hillary clinton at one point when he's looking over bizarre. i'll never use that again on you. it is just to get into the discussion >> shout into biden's mic and it

will pick you up >> we have more coming up in a moment why bank stocks will be key to watch in today's session we'll give you a first look on yesterday's resumption of indoor dining in new york city. watch us live any time on the cnbc app my father always reminded me, "a good education takes you many different horizons" and that sticked to my mind. so, when $1 a day came out, i said, "why not"? why not just utilize that resource. and walmart made that path open for me. without the $1 a day program, i definitely don't think i'd be in school right now. each week for me in school is just an accomplishment. i feel proud every step of the way.

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the federal reserve extending the curve. banks required to now continue to halt share buy backs and cap dividends through the end of this year. aimed at ensuring whether they have enough capitol to weather the coronavirus. the cdc extended its ban on passenger cruises through u.s. ports through october. this is an axios report. a push to extend the ban through february next year but was overruled by vice president pence. the october date is the same as the voluntary date

recent outbreaks on cruise ships overseas provide current evidence of viral transmission despite reduced passenger capacities and -- i don't know what we feed to do with cruises, andrew restaurants, 25% at least you can leave the restaurant once you are on -- it is problematic. that's going to be one of the last to recover, i would think unless there is a vaccine or something. i feel for them. i do >> yep >> that's going to be one of the -- even before covid, every couple of years. >> you and i were always averse to cruises there is a whole population. people want to reserve these >> i've taken them to see all four islands in

hawaii i did that with my parents or in greece it is a way to not have to hop on a plane in the mediterranean. there are times it would be cool i'm not ready. i always got scared looking over the railing. if you fall, they are not coming back they'll try. it takes a while to turn it around >> there is a great movie called titanic, which is another version of the cruise ship problems when we come back, we'll look at the first indoor dining in new york. chef andrew zimmerman will join us next. >> announcer: don't forget to subscribe to our podcast you'll get interviews, behind-the-scenes content.

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for many restaurants across the city and the country, changes are coming too late. a look at the state of the restaurant industry. chef andrew zimmern, good morning to you help us understand the economics of the restaurant business even in new york city if you can only do 25% capacity indoors and your fixed costs are probably around 50%, how can you

make it work unless you have the indoor piece, the outdoor piece and even then? >> yeah. it's extremely difficult i mean, you know, restaurants as a whole are essentially economic pass-through businesses. they only keep, on average, independent restaurants, about 7 to 6.5% of their revenue so you have to be operating at, at least, 95% capacity, precovid numbers to be making it work, which is the reason that america's restaurants and bars have been hit harder than any other industry during the pandemic no industry in america has lost more revenue or jobs in fact, food and beverage establishments are still down over 2.5 million jobs since the outset of the crisis conservatively one in six restaurants are estimated to have already closed. those are the ones who have

announced it many have shut their doors with a temporary closed sign on it, waiting for a miracle. 85% of restaurants are at risk of closing by the end of the year, which is why passage of the heroes 2.0 bill is so important, because that includes the restaurant revitalization fund and other mechanisms to help small businesses like independent restaurants. >> andrew, if i could make you the restaurant czar and you could wave a magic wand, what exactly would you do, recognizing that it is very positive that even, you know -- i don't know what your timeline is for a vaccine but even optimistic versions of a timeline fire vaccine really mean we could be talking about next summer before people really feel fully comfortable, just walking back in and packing a bar or back ppacking a restaurat

what would that timeframe look like >> you raise a good point i've been raising for five or six months not only is it vaccine and therapeutics but after that it takes a while for consumer demand and consumer safety feelings to return to public places at all, gatherings of any types will take a while. i extend it past next summer which is why there's $120 billion restaurant revitalization fund embedded in heroes 2.0 at the establishes grants for restaurants and provides grant relief throughout 2020 basically that allows a revenue recapture of roughly 12 months to most restaurants. in some cases, it might be a little more for those that have not used their first round of

ppp stimulus and many did not, or were not able to because they weren't open. >> right. >> so, therefore, they don't have to deduct that number from the grant numbers that they've been given there's also an expanded employee retention tax credit. this is sort of like complex calculus for people but essentially it means it helps independent restaurants and bars keep on more employees as they work with diminished capacity limits and a decreased need for larger staffs. so what it really is, it's an employee incentive program that helps solve some of our unemployment numbers $120 billion spent in this by the treasury dependent will save $270 billion calculated over the next 12 months. >> andrew, it's a longer

conversation we're all praying and hoping for the restaurant industry not only to continue but to thrive. thank you for being here. >> thank you. pepsico's cfo is next. futures are about where we've seen them maybe back off a little bit -- no, about where they were, 23 points after big gains, nasdaq arshply higher, 155. ""squawk box"" is coming right back the world can't stop, so neither can we. because the things we make, help make the world go round. they make it cleaner, healthier, and more connected. it's what we build that keeps things moving forward. so with every turn, we'll keep building a world that works.

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welcome to october what's ahead for your money, one month ahead of the election? we're going to find out. and pepsi out with quarterly results. we'll hear from the company's cfo. that interview is straight ahead. palantir, finally public after 17 years as a secretive private company. how shares are setting up day two is coming up, as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome back to "squawk box"

here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin becky quick is off today dow up about 228 points right now. nasdaq about 150 points higher then the s&p 500 looking to open about 28 points higher joe, you got some earnings news? >> we do, from pepsi, and a guest is out, pepsico, with earnings, beating wall street forecasts, posting a better than expected outlook sarah loves pepsi, coca cola you don't prefer one over the other, do you? >> no, i cover both of them. i love salty snacks, though, too. a good raw look at the business, up 4%.

expectation was 1 to 2%. it was across the board. it was frito-lay quaker, more people eating breakfast at home, growing 6%. beverages, nice surprise there, up 3%, with an expectation around one the other highlight i would mention is that the company issued guidance for the first time since the pandemic in february they clearly have some visibility of the it came in better than expected as well pepsico ceo and vice chair hugh johnston good to have you here. >> good morning. >> good morning. how much of this has to do with the fact that people are just spending more time at home and still panic buying, and that's lift lifted sales right now. >> in the snacking business as well as in the beverage businesses, consumers have returned to big brands and in a

pretty substantive way they really like the products. they like the quality. they like the innovation they like all the flavors. as a result, they're leaning into our portfolio mobility has increased eating away from home is increasing a little bit but has been stable for a while. consumers have adapted to this obviously difficult situation with the pandemic and found new stable behaviors and our categories seem to be pretty resilient with those behaviors. >> i mentioned that you gave guidance for the first time since back in february it seems like the picture is not clear. there are a lot of warnings about a second wave and rising cases in this country. there's questions about whether we'll see more stimulus. what gives you the confidence to see out that comes in at a sales rate that was equivalent to last year, prepandemic?

>> yeah. so we have pretty good visibility into the next quarter. we're not ready to talk about 2021 yet, of course. at least for the next quarter, we really do feel like we have a good line of sight as i mentioned, these new consumer behaviors have gotten pretty stable. as a result of that, as we look at our business, we feel like we could give investors a reasonable level of confidence over the next 90 days around what we expect to deliver, both the food business and the snack business are performing in a stable way in addition to that, a lot of the things we've been doing in the business around innovating, around executing in the marketplace, all of that seems to be helping us perform well. we're gaining share in both snacks and beverages, and about three-quarters of our top 20 market we feel like we have good momentum in the business right now. >> wanted to zero in on the beverage business. that comes as a big surprise, at least, to analysts i feel like coke still gets

credit for improved execution. what are you doing on that front? and where, within that beverage business, are you growing shares it's still in the hot new brands like bubbly? >> it's really both. if you look at how our business is operating right now, within north america beverages, mountain dew, which had been a bit of a hot spot for us, grew single digits primarily behind mountain dew zero, a phenomenal product. we see broadbased strength it's really performing at a top, top level right now. >> andrew is still worried about his teeth and bubbly water. >> i drink sparkly water all the time the trends of people eating at home, whether it's sustainable

you talk about it being sustainable to some degree but what that looks like and how you envision that a year and a half, hopefully postpandemic from now and whether you need to think about changing the mix again. >> andrew, i think projecting out a year and a half from now is awfully challenging, but i'm not an expert. what i can tell you is i think consumers have discovered cooking at home. i think they've discovered family dinners and things like that at home i think they discovered that time is actually enjoyable time and that certainly plays into our portfolio. what that will look leak a year and a half from now, hard to say. so to the degree consumers shift to another town, we'll be there for them andrew, i know you're a bubbly fan. one of the things i want to share with you in particular is we have some new innovation coming out called bubbly drop. when you fill your bubbly or soda stream bottle you can add

bubbly drops and flavor any way you would like to. >> i have another question this showed up at my house yesterday. i don't know if you can see this, hugh can you see this >> no. what product >> can you see this? >> mac n cheese. >> this is cheetos mac n cheese. it's a new franchise for you, right? >> it is. >> we usually limit the amount of cheetos that can be eaten in the house. in part because it gets on your hands. this won't get on your hands and everything, but so how often can we be having cheetos mac n cheese, do you think >> you should have it multiple times a week it comes in this great box and this convenient cup so you can take it to work with you that's a business right now that's absolutely flying for us. we brought the product to the marketplace. we literally cannot make enough to fill demand

we're trying to get capacity that's how popular this is mac n cheese is a great staple in the u.s. diet and combine that with the magic of cheetos, i think we have a dynamic winning product there. >> before i knew andrew was going to show that, i was going to ask you a question. i thought i was special because i got those at home, too, hugh you ask me whether or not -- i thought they were mac n cheese flavored cheetos i was pleasantly surprised to find they were cheeots mac n cheese, sort of the inverse on that was sarah on the list? did she get -- >> of course, joe. you think you got it and i didn't get it? >> i was thinking they were looking for people who are really foodies and really like to sample stuff like this and appreciate something like this you're right comfort food, pandemic

it was a -- not fortuitous, serendipitous time to introduce it. >> exactly we know you and andrew like pepsi, we're trying to get sarah in as well the food business is the way to mac that happen. >> joe does like his cheet os. >> what are you seeing in terms of u.s. consumer behavior versus countries like europe, where they are experiencing a surge in cases or china, where they really managed to control the outbreak do you see different consumer spending patterns based on the virus trends right now >> yeah. right now broadly, obviously, it's become a bit more of a challenge in europe relative to where it was a few months ago. the good news for us, our categories can be awfully resilient through these types of challenges and, as a result, our europe business is up about 7%

for the quarter. china business was up about 5% again, our categories tend to prit a bit independently obviously, what's happening with the pandemic is terrible and our heart goes out to people but they do tend to wander to comfort food when they're in these challenges and obviously that helps our business. >> hugh johnston, always good to talk to you. >> thank you. >> thanks for joining us here on "squawk box. chair and cfo of pepsico joe, have you tried -- i know you like salty snacks. quarters, those are addictive. >> it's not really cheetos i like i like them okay but i like tos. >> eye thought it was os. >> anything ending in tos.

doritos, fritos, and i know i'm lee leaving some out and then there's different flavors. and i like sparkling water, too. i like a little hardness to my selter, too. have you tried those >> topo chico from coke? >> white fang, white claw. those are really good. >> you're very on trend with that, yes. >> yes, i am y yes, i am. you know, it's better than -- beer is just, you know -- as i always say, those first six go down so smooth then later on -- anyway latest company to jump on the spac bandwagon, playboy enterprise to return to public markets through a merger with mountaincrest. when the deal is completed mountaincrest will change its name to playboy enterprises and

change its nasdaq ticker symbol to plby. turning its flagship magazine earlier this year, opting for a fully digital offering they still do the interviews, andrew that's the only reason i ever even knew about that, you know, that publisher. >> i don't even know what's going on with playboy anymore. >> there was a time -- >> i wish i had more -- >> that was the -- you probably don't remember that was before your time. but that was the jimmy carter lust in my heart interview that was a huge deal they had some real big breaking stories in the old days, i guess, when hef was still wearing that robe, smoking that pipe. >> back in the day. >> back in the day. if it's a thursday, there's a spac there's a spac every day if it's a wednesday, there's a spac if it's a tuesday, there's a spac every other day is a spac. another spac shares of nikola are up again, shares soared 14% after the

embattled electric truck sort of reconfirmed its business plans and production targets executive chairman milton's resignation amid two women's sexual assault allegations against him. it would extend talks on a $2 billion deal with nikola, which would give the detroit automaker an 11% stake in the company. let's take a look at futures. in the green across the board. triple digits on the nasdaq and dow, s&p 500 trending to open about 30 points higher "squawk" returns after this. ♪

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make sure to tune in to cnbc's new show "nuts with shephard smith" every weeknight at 7:00 p.m. eastern andrew >> thank you, joe. number of companies cutting their workforces due to the pan dem. goldman sachs is moving forward with job cuts that will total

400, 1% of its workforce marathon petroleum is cutting 12% of its workforce or 250,000 jobs, with the global supply, it will take a $175 million charge as part of restructuring also allstate cutting about 3800 jobs or nearly 8% of the insurance company's workforce as part of a restructuring effort and a charge related to the buyback. joe, this is what we've seen over and over again. we saw this happen, really, in 2008 and '09 at some point, especially as you get into a crisis like this, people realize that they can use this as a moment to downsize in certain cases. they can see the efficiencies. what i am concerned about is between now and christmas what those kind of numbers look like. these are not furloughed jobs, obviously. they're jobs that will be harder to come back as quickly. >> right

wonder where the slack gets taken up just in terms of those numbers. all the numbers we report know every week with the claims and then, you know, in the first friday of every month it's always a net/net and we don't really break down the number of jobs lost and added. you just wonder on the other side how you offset what is going to be continuing i don't know if it's an excuse to downsize. >> these are highly paid -- these are typically highly paid jobs this is the other sort of -- we rarely look at the overall mix, given that we have such a big service economy. but these are white collar jobs that may be tougher to get back. we'll see. >> coming up, the traditional ipo, is it really dead palantir, ron osana. no, no, regular osana. spotify looking for a direct

listing. the number of spacs continue to grow john forbes wite will continue s after the break. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. what pro athlete is the oldest ght idthtebes list of 100 hiespa ales? the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues lped me cover it. aflac. these are all the cab rides to my physical therapy. and aflac paid me directly to help. aflac. what he said. and this unexpected bill is from... the two-thousand-dollar specialist. thanks. aflac. when you're sick or injured, aflac is there. we can help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. get to know us at (aflac!) dot com.

>> announcer: october outlook for investors. moves to consider with stimulus, election and challenges ahead. squawk on the street 9:00 a.m. eastern today. watch or listen live on the cnbc app. ♪ >> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what pro athlete is the oldest on the forbes list of 100 highest paid athletes? the answer, phil mickelson welcome back to "squawk box. palantir went public yesterday in direct listings, chipping away at the idea that the traditional ipo is the default path to main street investors. is the traditional ipo dead? question of the morning, and jon fortt is here with the answers on this week's "on the other

hand." jon? >> andrew, you can kiss the traditional ipo good-bye the past 20 years have been about eliminating the middleman in banking, stock trading, retail, media, ad sales. and in this one last area of ipos, the middleman managed to hang on. this was the death nail. palantir did a direct listing, not an ipo co-founding facebook and lived through that fumbled ipo had a smooth direct list of his $7 billion company yesterday. this is a revolution selling a share of your company cheap to wall street guys, that's from the last decade like izzy azalea and crocs. >> so you think airbnb will do a direct listing >> on the other hand, crocs are

making a covid comeback, so is the traditional ipo. yesterday was a big moment for direct listings. let's not forget what ipos are, a chance to raise money, gain credibility and make a splash. already big-name billionaires preipo they're not exactly typical. about middle men, there's a reason why in the era of eliminating the middleman smart people are still using real estate agents sometimes. when you're doing a deal that big you want an expert watching your back and asking questions that doesn't mean there won't be tweaks snowflake and epic did ipos more tailored to their needs. for most companies out there, the ipo is evolving, not dying. >> okay. so, which is it? i've got a view here, jon. >> you do? what's your view >> i look at all of these as distinct, almost idiosyncratic issues the direct listing to me is not

really impacting the ipo piece of it. the direct listing is for companies who actually have money and can afford to come public without raising money those are few and far between. and as to the issue of the middleman, i would make the argument that actually the spac is the greatest demonstration of the power of the middleman in fact, there's multiple middlemen in the middle of a spac have you the spac sponsors taking fees, by the way the banks who are still ipo'ing the spacs. i'm not sure that much has changed, unfortunately. >> yeah. it's just a question of who is looking out for whom i think that's part of it. i think you're right, it depends on whether you really need to raise capital, what your needs are there. we saw from frank sluteman, a ceo taking a company public for the third time he's happy with the ipo route he took he did some tweaks on it, very

concerned with making sure they had the right groupings of investors involved in this ipo then you saw -- again, i mentioned unity. when it comes to -- i think i said epic. i meant unity. getting my game companies mixed up there when it comes to unity, they structured in such a way that employees got to cash out earlier. there are tweaks that can be made to make this work for companies that you don't necessarily have to do a teardown you can do a renovation. >> i still want to come up with a better incentive structure for the underwriters of a typical ipo to nail the price that they're going to sell it at so that if, for example, a company ends up leaving a ton of money on the table that, you know, who would pay a big service fee for that or if they promise you this price and it falls through the floor, who would pay a lot for that either? i think there's ways to perhaps

incentivize folks but we've been having this debate for a long, long time. >> i'm sure we can apply math to that. >> andrew, you always -- i think you always overlook that they're selling a percentage of the shares so you may get hot. >> right. >> you may leave some on the table. all the remaining shares are priced at the new level. it makes total sense to do it that way don't be greedy on the ipo and think it went up, it doubled, so i missed all of that but everybody that's got all the shares that are left have that new double price. >> all i'm saying is, if goldman sachs or morgan stanley says that our goal is to get you up 10% on day one, or even if they said 20% day one, if it ends up being 100% higher on day one, that's a fail. >> no. >> 50% lower fail. >> the rest of the stock, the rest of the -- it's up at the

double number. you've got to -- you're selling a small percentage and a bad deal is bad for everybody. >> if the bank is targeting something and they miss the target, what are you paying for? >> i think you do it on purpose. i want the big pop. >> no, no, no. >> jon is with me. jon, are you with me jon's with me. >> i am with you, joe. >> he's with me. he's with me i'm going to cut off your mic. >> i'm with you, andrew. >> can you cut off people's mics i thought i had a remote button here i have a remote control here. >> go to the national committee on "squawk box" to get that buttoned installed. >> i don't think you have that i'm at the nasdaq. you're at home i've got it here jon, thank you andrew's wrong. >> on the other hand. >> we're right still to come on "squawk box," what past elections can tell us about the markets going into the

fourth quarter what happens in the fourth quarter of an election year? sam stoval has done some research on it we'll talk about it. chief investment strategist. layer, palantir's debut was a rough one, below its opening price. it's up a little bit today we'll discuss what investors should take away from that first day performance. here are the futures before we go to break. solid this morning

futures are pointing to a strong start for october and despite a wild september that saw indexes post the first monthly loss since march, the dow and s&p, though, posted best back-to-back quarters since 2009 nasdaq, best back-to-back quarters since 2000. mike santoli joins us now with more. >> yep. >> what do they call october, mike it's the cruelest month, isn't

it even though we all think of -- it's almost like every date in october has some horrific market event associated with it but it's always a bottom. >> yeah, exactly we have the big kind of scary events that stick in our minds by the way, april is known as the cruelest month i believe that was the ts elliott line interestingly on an overall net basis it tends to be positive for stocks because you had the crashes in '29 and '87 it seems more threatening. s&p 500 year to date we're having some upside follow through. we've had a bit of a reset in september. that is really what it looks like a little bit of a payback for that happy august that we got. right now, 3400. we didn't reach that until the last couple of weeks of august i still think you have to call yourself in a little bit of a trading range. last week's high 3425 on the s&p. maybe we'll have to kick around there a little bit to see if it's something more.

two strong quarters in a row look at the history since 1970 if you've had 25% gains or more over subsequent calendar quarters in total, this is what happened nine times in the last 50 years. the next quarter was up each of those nine times and the average gain for those nine was 7.3% now in more recent years, since the '80s, the upside has been four to five percent the takeaway here is that there's not necessarily after the strong two quarterly calendars in a row nine times in 50 years not necessarily statistically significant but a gain rate of 7.3% nothing to turn away from strong markets beget strong markets. two quarters in 2009 but the two quarters in 1982 that launched those big bull markets. >> is it over or not are we clear sailing

we've been talking about this now ever since -- it's weird we had two unbelievable quarters yet we were focused on whether this pullback will extend into something a lot worse than just shaking out some complacency. >> i don't know that it's over it's not clear to me that we needed anything much more in september than a little bit of a reset of sediment and positioning. big fang stocks are all still down more than 10% you have had a little bit of a coming back to the pack of those lead stocks that everybody pretty much agreed at the end of august were way overdone now, you know, i don't think we also got the down side you didn't see a lot of panic and people rushing to get out. if we ultimately need that, maybe that's down the road also. it's only been four weeks. usually these phases last a little bit longer than that. i think the risk/reward was better coming into this week and i think we see how this market deals with this range right now.

fiscal deal, not fiscal deal, it gets hard to handicap. >> i don't really understand that april line either, you know what i mean? >> yeah. >> unless he was talking about april 15th do you know what i mean? >> i doubt he was. i think he was more talking about how -- it's a little teasing. looks like spring is here, then all of a sudden you're backsliding, and maybe it's not yet. >> it's even weirder than that it's fertilization, it's all that but the snow melts and the warmth of the winter months is melting, which is weird, because i like the flowers and the -- i like spring. so i don't -- i think he was on -- i think he's wrong about that although that's probably the greatest poem ever written thanks, santoli. you are so cultured. i can use you when i need a movie reference, like best in show you've got it all. you're a renaissance man, like

stoval just weeks until -- and nila, actually with weeks until election day, investors are looking at every which way politics could change the direction. nila richardson, principal and investment strategist, sam stoval nila, i was talking about you earlier, although i didn't mention your name. when i had the conversation with andrew about the idea that yesterday there might be some additional stimulus. turn the market around and we're still going up today and that's kind of your take on why the market has surprised and confounded so many people by going up, and it's cause of a lot of stimulus from the fed and from fiscally. my question is, does it spur the economy to improve, or is it just the money and the liquidity? it has helped companies stay

solvent that may have had some problems, and that may help the economy. >> the end game of the stimulus has to be the economic recovery. not just the markets they're obviously linked the markets are anticipating that that stimulus will bleed through, feed through the economic recovery, make it more sustainable than we've seen. we have seen a lot of progress in the economy, but the momentum is slowing and then you get the news -- this is a tough week for the airlines industries that are poised to recover and do well if the economy does well are still under siege right now. so, that stimulus is still important. and i think a lot of what we've seen the last two days in terms of the rebound from a pretty rough september has to do with optimism over future stimulus. >> okay. so, sam, your dad is a legend, obviously. you're a legend, legend in the

making another legend, phil orlando, just told me the saying is that october is the month that bear markets go to die, but we've been in a bull market. so is it different is it going to be different this time what has history told you about the fourth quarter of an election, during an election >> well, good morning, joe i notice you didn't say that you think about me every so often. but to answer your question, october is a capitulation month. if you look back to pullbacks, corrections or bear markets since world war ii, and i define them 5 to 10%, corrections 10 to 20 and bear markets 20% or more. october, by far, has the greatest percentage of ends or conclusions to these pullbacks, bear markets since world war ii. you have more than twice as much occur in this tenth month of the year as compared with any other month. yes, i agree with mike that i

don't think we've done enough penance. i think we probably should end up testing the 200-day moving average but we'll see. if it happens, maybe october ends up being the end, period. going into the fourth quarter, the market has gained 78% of the time in the fourth quarter of a presidential election year and i think it's mainly because usually early in november, the uncertainty has been resolved and now wall street looks forward to what the economic implications will be. >> so, nela, it's hard to just see the beast, isn't it, with -- and we've done it a lot. covid has given us a reason to keep coming back to the well, i guess. it's important because we're not out of it yet. people still need help if that's all that it is, the stimulus, sooner or later that's

not going to be a support for the market, is it? >> i don't think stimulus is the only thing that it can be over the long term. it's really the stimulus as a bridge to a sustainable economic recovery it's really a handoff to the economy and corporate earnings and that will drive stock return s over the long term we're telling investors to think near term and long term. think about those pandemic trends that have permits like digital adoption and then think about those sectors that tend to gain as the economy does well, cyclical sectors, like financials you really have to do both in this market. digital adoption means these tech stocks are pretty expensive. but at the same time, the runway, because of digital adoption, has been extended. so, tech stocks, communication services, industries that benefit from ai and the digital economy will probably continue

to do well and drive the market forward even as the economy recovers, which means that cyclicals come in to play as well. >> thanks. sam, in closing, do you think that the market is going to do what it does regardless of what happens on election day, or do you think it matters >> well, i think it matters. the market definitely focuses more on economics than it does on politics. obviously, politics can play a part in economics. i think that if we do end up with a democratic sweep, a trifecta -- we've had that happen six times since world war ii, and the market has fallen two-thirds of the time because of the surprise of the sweep this time around, we could see a sell-off as well if the concern is that we are likely to face higher taxes as we move into 2021 and investors might decide to take some of those profits at the lower tax rate this year rather than risk next year.

>> yeah. kind of a fool's errand. we saw what happened in 2016 with all the predictions about what was going to happen and, i don't know, i don't even know if i would venture a guess. anyway, thanks, sam. nela, thank you. my pleasure. >> thank you coming up, september auto sales expected to be strong. but will the demand continue into the fourth quarter? phil lebeau joins us after the break. philadelphia eagles and draft kings announcing a new multi-year deal which makes draft kings the official daily sports partner and official betting partner of the philadelphia eagles. part of the new agreement, draft kings will receive exclusive naming rights of the field club at lincoln financial field, a lounge, draft kings club

sports betting app released last week in pennsylvania, maybe a challenge today. maybe the eagles could actually manage to do something, or the bengals in overtime next time, so that i don't lose q3. yeah...uh... boss: doug? sorry about that. umm...what...its...um... boss: you alright? [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures contract prices around. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. don't get mad. keeping your oysters growing while keeping your business growing has you swamped. (♪ ) you need to hire i need indeed indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed

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♪ no one thought that they were going to do this before it happened, and everyone just did it. i think that's the way that human nature should be looked at. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ welcome back september turning out to be a strong month for auto sales, and phil lebeau is here to tell us why. phil >> andrew, a couple of months ago if you suggested that we might see a monthly auto sales rate topping 16 million vehicles, a lot of people would have scoffed but that's the possibility when we get the numbers from automakers when you look at strictly the month of september. the auto industry is shifting now to primarily reporting on a quarterly basis, and the expectation is that the q3 sales rate will come in somewhere between 15.2 and 15.4 million vehicles with september the consensus being 15.7 to 15.9 million vehicles as a sales rate i have talked to some sales analysts who say we might see 16 million as a handle in terms of sales for the month of september. take a look at gm, ford and

fiatt chrysler why these three? the traditional big three have done well selling pickup trucks and suvs the demand for those vehicles has not slowed down at all the asian automakers, toyota, honda, nissan, they're doing well as well they pretty much now have the car market, the sedan market, even though that is lower in sales, they dominate that. they'll do well for the third quarter. finally, take a look at tesla's annual sales why are we showing you this? tesla q3 sales some time in the next three days and they've not changed their guidance of delivering half a million vehicles for q3 they'll go past that 367 number, that's the expectation, in terms of what they delivered last year and are likely to report record deliver force the third quarter. guys, back to you. >> all right, phil phil lebeau, thanks. stock debut 17 years in the making how the shares of palantir

performed n their first trading days

after 17 years, secretive company palantir went public distinguished fellow for journalism for advanced study at princet princeton, joann

i'm interested on what your take is on this particular offering it has a unique government structure and there's still questions around what the right comparable would be in terms of trying to find a multiple on this stock. >> yeah. what's really interesting about palantir is you raise those excellent points but what's interesting here is how investors will value it. what happens after an election we have to think about why did they go public right now they've been -- it's been 17 years. they've never turned a profit. we're not talking five or ten years. we're talking 17 years with no profit but it's a company that is very, very closely aligned with the trump administration you've got the co-founder, who has been one of the biggest supporters of the president. and then the work that the company does, which is extremely opaque, but seems to work with a lot of the trump administration's sort of

favorite projects. we're looking at immigration, i.c.e., works with the military, with intelligence and the cia was an early seed investor so, i think there's a huge question here about what happens if trump does not win the presidency you could certainly understand why they chose right now to go public, because trump is still firmly in office i think there are big questions what happens after an election. >> okay. i want to go to alex having covered this company for a very, very long time, joanne, i will take the other side of this argument with you i think it has nothing to do with the trump presidency at all. alex karp, the co-founder of the company, the manwho runs the company is publicly anti-president trump he has publicly come out and said he did not vote for president trump and does not want to vote for president trump in the future. so, the idea that their business somehow has grown as a function of this administration, i think

in truth, is a bit of a myth but let me talk to alex about where he -- he may have a different view alex, i think there's lots of risks to this company, but i don't think it's the president. >> right look, i mean, i won't say that -- they got $800 million from the department of defense after peter thiel publicly took a bet on trump to me, to say there's no link doesn't feel right on the other hand they've been working on this for 17 years it's not as if this business just emerged yesterday and has only now started to figure it out. in fact, i don't think they've figured it out they were worth $20 billion in 2015 public market valuation is around $21 billion you would have invested in the vanguard stock total index fund you would have made 80% on your money versus potentially losing money on palantir. i don't find this to be a strong stock. i think there is that risk with the election that joanne

mentioned. there are plenty of other risks. to say it's just one thing misses the bigger icture to me this is just a weak company. >> the issue i wonder about, and we talked about social activism for a long time. the role of palantir working for the u.s. government -- by the way, working for governments around the world, and on controversial issues potentially, and at the same time working for corporations who are increasingly looking at who their partners are and what their social activist take may be if palantir is working for i.c.e. and employees at some other company that's typically a client, that's where i see a potential clash. do you >> 100%. actually, in your interview with alex karp yesterday, you raised this with him. this is an excellent point and really one of the major issues we'll be look at going forward, which is companies right now

are, you know, in this moment in time where they are really involved in social activism. they are coming out in support of black lives matter. they've been coming out in support of me too. there's this sort of social activism and even political activism element we're seeing in the corporate world right now. is that at odds with palantir's businesses and its practices you already mentioned amnesty international, which called it out for potential human rights violations alexandria ocasio-cortez wrote a letter to the s.e.c. saying you ought to investigate them for their opaque transactions. good point. >> alex, my question to you finally is the government structure and why investors are so -- this isn't just a palan tir issue. it's cross tech and beyond that.

why investors are willing to accept these structures where, in many ways, these companies are almost remaining private. >> i don't know why investors would be willing to accept a deal like this you look at the other companies this is playing out in a place like snap chat, for instance i don't think it's worked out for them at all. ultimately it's not going to be a good thing down the line. >> alex, joanne, we appreciate both of you being with us, your perspectives and playing along with the debate. when we return, mike braun on the stimulus talks and whether a deal can get done in washington

good morning welcome to the fourth quarter. stocks pointing to a strong open in just about 90 minutes could glimmers of hope on a stimulus bill be playing into that no deal in d.c. yet, but we don't have -- we don't not have a deal either, and that could be a good thing at this moment. and las vegas, betting on a comeback in a town where large

crowds are a way of life were anyway. a few signs of progress amid the economic destruction of the pandemic september is over. it's october, and the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ wake me up when september ends ♪ ♪ here come the rain again >> good morning and welcome to "squawk box," right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with john. dow jones hopes up 220 points higher treasury yields at this hour right now, you can look at the ten-year note. .704 right about now

j joe, what's going on some breaking news is coming. >> from ford and phil lebeau joins us a trifecta for joe today. >> tim stone is leaving the company after 15 months on the job. he will be replaced by john lawler, effective immediately, 30-year veteran now becomes cfo. this is day one of ceo tenureship for jim furley who ta takes over as ceo. he will be announcing restructuring within the company and reiterating he has set a goal for the company, 8% margins. that's the goal that jim farley has set as the company names a new cfo today. back to you. >> thanks for that, phil >> meantime a few signs of progress on another stimulus bill that pretty much everyone agrees is necessary, but nothing concrete yet of course, nothing is

guaranteed over to ylan mui with the very latest from washington. >> reporter: you're right, andrew no deal yet. they are still talking, according to a person familiar with the plan, treasury secretary is offering a package worth $1.6 trillion and that includes $250 billion in state and local aid and $4 h00 a weekn enhanced unemployment benefits that is less than what democrats had said they would accept so it's unclear if they would be willing to move forward with those numbers. in addition, there would also be $150 billion for education $75 billion for testing and tracing. 60 billion in rental and mortgage assistance and $15 billion in food aid. mnuchin and house speaker pelosi met yesterday at her office for roughly an hour and a half they were supposed to speak again last night in a statement, pelosi described their conversation as extensive. she said she's seeking clarification on a number of other issues democrats had intended to hold a

vote last night on their own $2.2 trillion proposal they held off on that to give mnuchin and pelosi a few more hourts to try to reach a deal. however if, talks fall through today, democrats say they are planning to bring their bill to the floor for a vote and then head home until after the election guys >> ylan, before you go, is there any sense that senate democrats or republicans would ultimately go for the white house offer >> reporter: yeah. in speaking to democrats, i think that $250 billion for state and local would be a tough number for them to swallow, but we'll see exactly how that is structured the other issue which i'm still trying to get more information on is liability protections, how long would those last exactly, what are the details of how that provision would be written those are some other outstanding issues and then as far as senate republicans, mitch mcconnell said yesterday that the two

sides are very, very far apart it seems like there's still a sales job to be done there. >> okay. ylan, thank you for that report. appreciate it. joe? >> too bad we can't talk to a senate republican. oh, wait to talk more about where things stand on the stimulus front let's bring in senator mike braun, republican. would you go for 250 on the state help and what about the other provisions >> i listened to all of that and that's a pretty good depiction of where we are. for senate republicans, we had one out there a couple of weeks ago that was in that $500 billion range, maybe a little lower if you take some of the repurposing in, but the dynamic is exactly where it is, and i think that the dems are more likely to come our direction for many senate republicans, it will be the top line figure regardless of the content, and that was reflected in ours, but that doesn't mean that you might

not get 10 to 15, maybe 20 republicans in the senate that would go along with what the senate democrats would be okay with it will happen, i think in a tight timeframe, because our calendar, which is split between legislative and executive, is highly zeroed in on executive with the nominee of amy coney barrett. you have to keep that in mind as well this place doesn't move like the real world that i'm used to. it's very lumbering when you get stuff done, but there is some urgency. real quickly, airlines, downtown hotels, entertainment venues, sports venues and some restaurants. that is basically, and any ripple effect from them, where the economy is hurting my view, especially from a place like indiana, is that almost everybody else is back on their

feet in the sense that numbers compared to months in 2019, many are there or above, and there's that part of the economy that all of us think probably still needs some attention a question of how much. >> so if the house were closer to 2.4 -- the senate was like 300 billion, wasn't it >> that's a big difference, yeah. >> and then now she -- she's great. she went to 2.2 from 2.4, i think. >> yeah. >> you're going from -- mnuchin is going from 300 to 1.6 could they still say no, we want more >> so, anything in that neighborhood or above, you'll lose -- my guess would be a third to a half of senate republicans due to the top line amount, because we need, in a tactical, surgical way, closer

to what we put out there you still have a lot of other stuff in 2.2 sure that sounds like she's come a long way, but 3.3 was preposterous. >> she went from 2.4 to 2.3 or 2.2 and you guys are like, i don't know, it looks like you're -- i'm not saying we shouldn't do it. >> i think that could still happen if it gets down into the 1.5 range, you'll have enough republicans that will probably go along with all the senate democrat democrats in the senate and the house may come along who knows? there's a tight timeframe. most of the calendar will be used up with the hearings and the vote leading up right before election. >> so, senator, a lot of republicans are saying that the speaker and chuck schumer don't want to give a win to republicans or especially to president trump before the

election with additional stimulus, which would help so, was that a faux accusation or is that dynamic still in play >> that dynamic is definitely still in place just two years ago when i went through this whole gauntlet, the kavanaugh hearings were there and how political appointments of that stature get, let alone what you do right before an election with a package. this place is all political. one thing that's disturbing to a guy like me who comes from main street, state legislature, where you have none of that stuff and you're trying to accomplish a common goal. that will be the debrief on my first two years here, would be is the american public going to tolerate this kind of bizarre nature for the biggest business in the world, the federal government, so many people dependent upon it, it gets run

so poorly and so politically i think that will be the rendering that every politician here is going to need to pay attention to post-election. >> yeah. you mentioned kavanaugh. you're from indiana. >> yeah. >> home state of acb andrew has a question. i thought i was ending it. here we go, senator. >> i just wanted to get the senator's take, frankly, on the debates and how he sees the country viewing what a lot of people looked at as a missed opportunity. it's often been said there's a missed opportunity for both sides, but i was curious in particular because you supported the president whether you thought that his performance -- or how you would grade his performance. >> i think the whole thing needed an adult time-out, and i don't think it helped. there's so few people that are

still kind of stewing on who to vote for in my time here, i think that will be a differential with either biden explaining what some of the craziness will result in, with so much more government spending, green new deal, medicare for all, some of the political stuff like stacking the court, getting rid of the legislative filibuster. that is where the president should have been drilling in for clarity there. and if the president can't clearly explain the number one thing that he has got the argument on his side with is how good the economy has been and not get into what we saw on tuesday evening. he has two more chances. i think that is the key. there is a lot to be talked about there. i came here on issues. high cost of health care, climate, no budget done, no fiscal responsibility. maybe the voters that are yet

undecided would like to hear a little bit about that. >> okay. all right, senator braun, thank you. >> you bet. >> that was good to have your -- after ylan's report to see exactly where everything stands. we appreciate you stepping up for us thanks andrew, welcome. >> okay. coming up when we return on the other side of this break, explaining the spac attraction how did this once back country road to going public get so jammed and tonight at 7:00 eastern time, tune in to cnbc's new program "the news thwi shephard smith. stay tuned "squawk box" returns after this. look here, it's your very own all-in-one

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>> welcome back to "squawk box." futures right now, dow up about 220 points, s&p up 30 points and nasdaq up about 150 points andrew, talking about this playboy story. we mentioned jimmy carter by chance earlier do you know it's his birthday? 96 today. >> i did not know that. >> happy birthday to president

carter we just mentioned him and that interview. god almighty, 1976 you were on the planet but you were -- >> '76, i was not. >> you were not even on the planet >> i was not. >> oh, my god. >> i arrived in '77. >> that's so frightening to me. >> just a glimpse in my parents' eyes. >> you didn't read it? you read it the next year probabl probably. >> meantime, playboy enterprises jumping on the spac bandwagon. a special acquisition purpose company mountaincrest acquisitions another spac is making its debut on the nasdaq today. this one is altimeter, committing 102,000 to the raise.

the fees of spacs versus traditional ipos and what's behind all of this the founder and ceo of altimeter capital. we appreciate it, brad help the audience, almost as an explainer, understand the spac phenomenon we've had conversations about the fees, but also really what's driving it often times you're seeing investors invest early on and it's almost a financial engineering play it's an arbitrage. they'll invest as a sponsor day one. they borrow money, 2%, and hope 20 months later they can capture a spread almost risk free. >> you know, andrew, thanks for having me on hey, joe i'm not sure i can compete with cheetos mac n cheese and playboy

spac this morning. altimeter will be more boring than that, but let's give it a go the spac phenomenon. there's multiple routes a company can get into the public markets, traditional ipo, and now there's an opportunity for a sponsor that plays the role of a high-quality partner as these companies transition to the public markets in many ways we think of altimeter's effort as an anti-spac. $10 million of assets helping world class founders and companies in silicon valley grow their company and eventually get to the public markets. so, i think one of the disservices we do is lump all these things into the same bucket just as we know there will be a massive distribution of returns in traditional ipos,

there will be in venture capital. the liquidity that exists in the world our hedge fund will short some of these spacs at the appropriate time we think there's room for innovation and we intend to be one of the innovators to help one of the best companies in silicon valley find their way to the public markets. >> but, brad, explain this in terms of the fee structure, because the other element of it is, it feels like there's a new middleman in town, the spac sponsor. then this new version of an underwriter if you will. >> your conversation about fees with chairman powell was really important. let me be specific on this as it relates to us. most spacs start off charging about 20%.

that's similar in our venture capital funds and hedge funds. when it's all said and done we expect to have 12.5 million of the 62.5 million shares. but remember those shares and that fee is tied to the success of the company and ultimately the number of shares you have will be determined at the back end when the deal is transacted i think i read yesterday that on a fully diluted basis will own less than 2% of open door when that spac is complete. the way we're characterizing fees as a double layer, et cetera, is probably not accurate and certainly the market will evolve and, interestingly enough, right, every shareholder gets a vote here. i think it's important, like chairman clayton pointed out last week, that we're clear about what we're charging and we laid this out for shareholders and shareholders get to make a decision whether or not they want to participate, knowing these fees upfront.

>> how do you feel about the transparency issues related to an ipo versus a spac in terms of your ability in a spac to talk to investors however you want, and in an ipo, obviously, you can't. >> well, you know, there's no guarantee in any of these approaches that you're going to have a positive outcome for investors. the securities laws, once you have full and fair disclosure, it should be required in a direct list. it should be required in a spac transaction, and should be required in a traditional underwriting enron, valiant and plenty of bankruptcies have occurred in traditional underwritings. there's no magic pixi dust to a traditional underwriting we lay out all the facts to investors very clearly so they can understand and vote with their own dollars whether or not they want to participate in the transaction. >> brad, if we're to look back

at this two years from now, what feels like a frenzy, are we going to see a majority of these have great success, will a majority of these have great failure? there's a lot of big names that have now gotten involved and rushed toward the spac space will this be great for their reputations or terrible for their reputations? >> great question, andrew. from our perspective, we're focused on what altimeter does best we partner with world-class founders, entrepreneurs, building technology companies. that's what we're going to do. we're sticking to our lane i suspect that, you know, the torrent of capital unleashed by the fed, low interest rates is causing, you know, excess speculation in lots of markets, including this one so the distribution of outcomes will likely look like the distribution of outcomes in other markets. but that's not really pertinent to us. we know that we're only going to

partner with the best entrepreneurs in silicon valley and we're either going to do those high caliber deals, many of whom we know through our venture capital business and public markets business, or we won't bring the company public it's that simple. >> okay. brad, great explanation of all we really appreciate you sort of walking through all this for the audience and i think there's still so many questions about this. we hope to have you back and hear about your progress so, thank you. talk to you soon. >> excellent thanks for having me on. >> you bet joe? >> thanks, andrew. >> coming up, the sin city comeback las vegas took a bad beating from the coronavirus there's signs that improvements are happening out in the desert. a live report from the strip just ahead, as we head to break, check out the shares of pepsi, top analyst estimates on the top and bottom line in its latest report it gave four-year

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coming up, new initial jobless claims figures, plus personal income and spending on

the other side of this break tonight, tune in to cnbc's new program "the news with shephard smith," providing deep, nonpartisan coverage of the day's stmptamo iornt stories stay tuned "squawk" returns after this. ♪ ♪ "hmm's and ahh's" heard in-call. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box. rick santelli is standing by the numbers, my friend >> andrew, we're looking for continuing claims with the issue of stimulus and more money in the pockets of those unemployed. all of this, even personal spend something huge 837,000 is the newest read on initial jobless claims for the week of september 26th of course, 837 now is another new low. the problem is it's also the fifth week in a row where we're sort of in the same place. this low of 837,000. you go back to the end of august, 884,000. on continuing claims, a nice move here. we broke down another handle we're under 12 million

11,767,000 this is also a good read and it's going to get the same coverage that it's progress but it's not necessarily the rate of change that we saw in the beginning. but both these numbers are good, and the markets will like them august read on personal income, minus 2.7. that's a bit worse than minus 2.5 we're expecting. the big deal here, of course, it follows up .4. minus 2.7 is the worst number since may when it was down to minus 4.2. that's on the income side. now on the spending side, it's a different story. it's actually a bit better than expected we're looking for numbers slightly below 1%. this came in at 1% we lost four-tenths from 1.9 to 1.5. quarter month over month, expected year over year up 1.6, a smidge hotter than expected. if i had to summarize, i would say that the conversation is

going to be that congress needs to put a little extra money in people's pockets you can see it on the income side potentially, and also you can see it on the income side because maybe the unemployed -- the amount of unemployed is lasting a bit longer at a level we thought we might be able to get below a bit quicker. on the claims side, it is progress no matter how you slice it, it's definitely progress. these are the lowest numbers on initial jobless claims going back to march. andrew >> okay. >> back to you. >> thank you, rick, for that analysis we'll head over to see steve liesman now, who i think has more analysis and read on these numbers. what's your reaction >> yeah. i don't have a big difference with rick on this one. there is progress, and there's progress on the jobs front some of the high-frequency data i've been looking at suggested between the survey weeks, the number of shifts has gone up remember, with claims we're only looking at the firing side we're not looking at the hiring

side the expectation for tomorrow is that we will have enough hiring to offset these 837,000 people who essentially lost their jobs. it's still a very, very high number we made some of those strides. by the way, some of those strides came to a change to the seasonal adjustment. that is sort of working out. we're making some progress, but still at a very, very high level, which causes, i think, concern. one thing i'm very interested in, though, is this differential you have the personal income data declining 2.7%. that is showing the falloff, at least in part, of the government assistance and does point to the debate about whether additional stimulus is needed but before you go there, in order to confuse the debate even more, the personal savings rate remains a ridiculous 14%, and the prior numbers i have here

were all off the charts. they used to be 6, 7%. it was 17% in july, 19% in june. people are, in fact, saving some money. to the extent to which congress has delayed and have been unable to get additional stimulus or relief out to the public, there is at least, for some people -- obviously not for others, some measure of savings to rely upon to see them through this period in that there were massive government stimulus checks earlier on there's still time for the economy to remain buoyant while this debate happens. how much time? we'll see that in the data, joe. >> yep all right, steve, thank you. back-to-back liesman/santelli combo. viewers clamor for that, as you know, steve. let's talk about inflation and the economy. we are joined by the chief economist and global head of economics at morgan stanley.

you heard both reports normally they disagree, but this time not so much do you agree as well with most of what steve said >> yeah, absolutely. i think, in fact, the number on the spending was a little bit higher than what we were expecting. we have just a little bit more than 3.5% down from precovid levels in personal consumption and the numbers on person income has already gone above precovid level even if we exclude the stimulus transfers, which was a big reason why it happened in the personal income. in pretty good shape, joe. >> what we're seeing in terms of unemployment, i guess we have a number coming, you know, soon on the granddaddy number of them all. what type of progress have we

seen did we have great progress initially because of the bounce and it's moderating, or do you expect to see some pretty good numbers? >> still will be a pretty good number of course it has to moderate because we made up a lot of lost ground we're expecting 100,000 jobs to be added this month in the month of september rather. the overall progress, i think, has been quite phenomenal so far. and we are expecting the gdp levels to reach about 96.5% when we get the third quarter gdp which is much more surprising to where we were just a few weeks back i think the economy is making -- we're progressing and going forward. we will see moderation. >> we're talking about stimulus a lot and, you know, like so many things there is a diversity of opinion on whether it's really needed.

is it a niche need we have, in the industries we've talked about a lot, or could the entire recovery benefit from more priming of the pump by congress? >> i would say that, look, if we have that stimulus, it would be good because, you know, you could have rising new cases and potentially some shutdown. this will help us where you would have rising new cases. but other than that, you know, if you don't have big rise in new cases and shut down in the winter, we think the economy -- we are seeing pretty good levels of rate growth still from that level by about -- income going at about four-plus percent, year on year.

and in excess of levels, we calculated the excess stock. this is not the floor. the stock saving we built the last four or five months is over $1 trillion. if the consumers spend this excess saving out, we will be about 3% higher on personal consumption in the next four or five months. it will be good to have the stimulus a stimulus. >> chetan, appreciate your quick response to the claims numbers we look forward to seeing you at some point in the future chetan ahya at morgan stanley. andrew >> thank you, joe. after this break, las vegas bets on a comeback

and jean we wi and swrjane wells, one and only jane wells is on the strip. >> down from a year ago, but that was better than july was. vegas staging a comeback we talk to everyone from the ceo of mgm resorts to elvis, as "squawk" goes live from the las vegas strip. mmy does... mmy does... my mom has super powers. it's like she can see the future. what?! it's like she time travels in a rocket ship. that's cool! and then she comes back saying "try this" or "try that." she helps everyone. she helps them feel less worried. wow! mommy, so what is it that you do? i'm a financial advisor. she is! aig proudly supports all the professionals taking care of our financial futures. when disaster strikes to one, we all get together and support each other. that's the nature of humanity.

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philadelphia eagles and draft kings making a deal, making draftkings an official sports betting partner of the philadelphia eagles. as part of the new agreement, draft kings will receive exclusive naming rights to the field club that could be a shot across the bow of the rival whose sports bar betting app was released last week in pennsylvania. andrew, i don't think we can appreciate how far we've come in terms of having sports and sports teams actually associated with gambling. in the old days -- >> yep. >> when it was illegal and bookies -- just the slightest notion that a sports team -- >> yep. >> we go back to 1919. >> pete rose. >> the world series and pete rose and all those things. isn't it weird that the field

club at a stadium is going to be called draft kings it's legal now we do it online. i can't imagine points shaving that's what people were worried about back then or that pete rose -- he said he never bet against the reds you wouldn't want the manager of the team betting against the team, because you figure he would like, you know, put crappy players in, lousy pitchers or whatever it's weird i think it's weird also, this whole draftkings versus penn gaming is kind of fun to watch, too. look at that stock these stocks are now worth more than some of the brick and mortar casino stocks and it's not even legal yet i have to get you involved. >> it's amazing. i would argue, by the way, that's one of the reasons why barry diller bought a stake in mgm. but you're right, draft kings

and penn have been on a tear we promised you jane wells from vegas. a district court judge in nevada approving an $800 million settlement to 4,000 relatives and victims of that mass shooting in vegas. today marks three years since a gunman opened fire on an open-air concert, killing 58 and injuring more than 850 vegas still dealing with a pandemic in a town people love to gather. joining us now from the vegas strip, jane wells. jane >> hey, andrew, here is the perspective. during the great recession, vegas lost 200,000 jobs over 2 1/2 years. during covid it's lost 250,000 jobs in two months, according to applied analysis since then, there are signs of a turnaround park mgm reopened for the first time since march yesterday

that's the last of the mgm resort properties to reopen. las vegas has not had a single convention since march, over six months. >> people have asked, has the meetings market -- is this going to change the meetings market because of teams and all these other products maybe to a degree. one thing is for sure. even if i give up my office, i need a place to gather my people and las vegas becomes an amazing place to be able to to that on a quarterly, semi annual or even annual basis. >> these are cancellations of all the weddings that we've had come in. >> reporter: it's been heartbreak hotel for elvis, also known as ron dhi qar, never seen anything economically like covid. >> when have you 60, 80 people, they buy a shot glass, teddy bear, drinks all that other income, we can't even see yet that's income that's past that

so it's been very, very scary. >> but covid is not the only thing in the air so is love while we were at the chapel, darth vader officiated a wedding. darth always wears a mask. still the convention and business meeting losses are over $8 billion that could be double the first conventions were to be slated for the end of january. the world of concrete and shot show, world of concrete just postponed till june. shot show still on guys >> jane, first of all, i was going to say darth vader looks like he's getting a chin, but that's a separate issue. my real question is given you're on the ground there, what's it like inside the cass einos are people wearing masks we've seen these images on twitter and other things, nobody wearing masks and then people saying that's not really accurate of what's happening what does it look like in action >> i've been here three times in the last two weeks the casinos are not messing

around they hand you a mask if you're not wear iing one. you get your temperature checked if you're checking into a room there are as many hand sanitation stations as there are slot machines. as they move forward with the possibility of conventions and meetings happening, some of the casinos and the resorts, wynn, mgm, et cetera, are talking about rapid testing. mgm working on an app for contact tracing. we'll see how it goes and if those conventions slated for january actually happen. that will be a ten-month drought of conventions and also no shows. speaking of sports, a brand new stadium here with a new team, and no fans can go to it. >> hey, jane, back here, restaurants -- it's kind of weird. there's no paper, there's no menus. you use your phone or take a picture of the thing and then -- >> yep. >> vegas, there's chips that you use to keep track of your winnings there's cards, there's slots

there's -- everything, you touch, do you not? >> it's interesting. at the gaming tables, you have plexiglass in between. so you're all still together but there's plexiglass the dealer has plexiglass and a slot going through doing this. they're constantly sanitizing. i did see people playing craps i'm not quite sure how that's working. >> right. >> but there are constant hand washing stations right in the casino now the rate in nevada, positivity rate is not low it's 7.8%. but for the people who are coming here, they are -- they do not seem to be concerned and while tourism is way down, and it's particularly dead during the week. when i was here a week ago saturday it was a little bit like the old vegas there were a lot of people here, a lot of them even wearing masks outside. >> okay. wow! jane, we appreciate it

great to see you. >> you bet. >> thanks. >> thank you coming up, what jim cramer is watching as we get set to kick off the fourth quarter on wall street. you can always listen to us live on the cnbc app. stay tuned "squawk box" is coming right back everyone wakes up every morning to a world that must keep turning. the world can't stop, so neither can we. because the things we make, help make the world go round. they make it cleaner, healthier, and more connected. it's what we build that keeps things moving forward. so with every turn, we'll keep building a world that works.

let's get to cnbc headquarters, jim cramer joins us know. i have a way to tie this all together, draftkings and your beloved eagles, the club is going to be called draftkings. jim, draftkings is worth like twice as much as mgm and as penn national is involved, it's a shot across the bow. do you think that brick and mortar las vegas and other brick and mortar places, is it threatened by this move to what we're seeing online or there's enough demand to go around for everyone >> well, i think that penn nat is a fantastic strategy with barstool because you have brick and mortar around the country and barstool making an unbelievable book. draftkings, they're a sponsor of bull market fantasy my show

online, draftkings has a lot of money and are becoming what i would say is first move advantage to be able to block a lot of other companies, the casino companies have been caught flat-footed they are more worried about macaw or worried about the issues jane wells pointed out than they are worried about gambling gambling is amazing, a huge business, adam silver from the nba was the first guy to point out maybe it should be aboveground, now it's in a bunch of states, i think it's going to keep rolling it's a great way for states to make money, jersey is doing its best at it these companies are forward looking. i think that the management at draftkings is dynamite and the management at penn national, to team up with portnoy was a brilliant move he is an unbelievable get when you watch football on sunday with twitter, but draftkings this was a shrewd move even though right now in the bread basket of where portnoy so-called resides, but

draftkings can do every stadium. they have that kind of capital and draftkings knows -- they know there's going to be in-game betti betting. it's brilliant it's hard to do. i can't gamble, but holy cow, these guys are smart smooth linkage. now i'm glued to, you know, game day on espn saturday morning and, you know, i watch the nbc stuff on sunday night and it's all because of this. so it just all seems like it's all linked together. >> the network -- >> it's not in all 50 states, yet, jim. >> but the networks have to be careful. >> they must be discount that go it's going to be in all of them. it's already in this these stocks. >> it is, but amazon has got the rights to thursday, they're very much aware of gambling the regular networks are still, i think, reluctant to talk about the line, they're certainly reluctant to talk about fantasy football, they seem to think that it is somehow, i would say, ill-advised to speak of

gambling, but draftkings and penn national have overridden them and i think that one day we will watch a game with draftkings app, we will watch a game with penn nat and they will have better coverage so i think the networks have to be a little more careful they may disagree with me but i'm deeply in this world with bull market fantasy and the fantasy and betting world is so huge that it would be, i think, very optimal for the networks to focus on it and be much more aware of fantasy points, be much more aware of the line, be much more aware of who is going to score the first down these are all things that are bet on and it's a way to be able to keep younger people involved. that's what they want. they want the draftkings app, the penn nat barstool and they want to buy options on robin hood these are all the same people. if you are not tapped into them then i think you really are a try share tops. >> i thought you might be interested in this topic, jim.

thanks. >> thank you, guys. >> we'll see you in a couple minutes. andrew >> thanks, joe, and thanks jim we are now more than a little bit -- a little more than a month away from the presidential election and today we're rolling out the first cnbc quarterly report where we poll dozens of cnbc contributors, also wall street strategists to see where they stand on what's ahead leading up to the election 52% of respondents say their strategy is rotating into cyclicals while 26% say they'll stick with tequiners, 13% are taking some profits and 9% are compiling cash joining us with what he's watching in the markets is jacob walthour what do you make of that assessment are you doing what the majority is doing are you zigzagging in another way? >> surprisingly i'm going to be in the minority. i'm part of that 26% that

continue to be big believers in tech as you and cramer just got finished talking about, the difference between mgm, which is bricks and mortar and draftkings which is not i think that, you know, really smart investors are starting to think about how businesses tran acted nowadays, how they're living now a ways and they should be building those portfolios around the things that are in their life today, right? so, for example, we have what's called pandemic portfolio. you are assuming that most people are home most of the day. they are consuming their entertainment and that's from home and that should be, you know, looking at names like disney, roku, netflix, at&t. they're doing their shopping from home and so we think about, you know, e payments, mastercard, visa, paypal we think that today's market is one that, you know, really is not going to be driven by pe and

price, it's going to be driven more by common sense, how people are living today and how that is going to be reflected in the performance of certain companies and the lack of performance in other companies. >> but, jacob, let me ask you a question the multiples on tech stocks as you know have already moved. so is this about growing into the multiple is this about the multiple expanding even more? and what happens on the other side of a pandemic, even though some of these trends have clearly accelerated, you have to imagine you're talking about an mgm, brick and mortar, versus a draftkings and i get the distinction, but you have someone like a barry dillard investing in mgm partially because he's thinking the thing has been decimated so even if vegas comes back but the other part is if they can capture even part of that draftkings business, you know, that might be meaningful. >> but when we think about putting together portfolios we don't think about putting them together for the next three months or six months we generally think out three to

five years and so while a lot of these tech names are expensive, we think you have to look at some of the volatility in the market as an opportunity to get access to some of those names when they trade off. and we will agree that when you look at a company like docusign that is far more popular today than it was pre-panned ademic a look at the valuation of it, look at the market cap of the company, you say the company has some growing to do to fit into that market cap, but at the same time let's not assume that we are going back to a pre-pandemic world entirely and a company like docusign may have a business model that has real relevance going forward in our economy post-pandemic. >> jacob, fair enough. we always appreciate talking to you and getting your insights, thank you very, very much. talk to you soon. >> thanks for having me. >> a quick final check on the markets, we've got green arrows across the board this morning.

you're looking at triple digit open on the dow, about 174 points higher, it's come down just a little bit, nasdaq up about 153 points and the s&p 500 looking to open about 23 points higher joe, great to see you, see you again tomorrow maybe we will start a spac tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. q4 begins, futures are solid as investors look past some of the rising covid friends in europe and the u.s. more corporate layoff announcements and instead focusing on stimulus talks now in their final hours, jobless claims 837,000 our roadmap begins with stimulus hopes. the white house counters with an offer around $1.5 trillion including $20 billion in aid for airlines, talks continue today. plus covid headwinds for airlines, american and united furloughing more than 30,000, th