breaking in the middle of the night, approximately 1:00 a.m. president trump and the first lady test positive the president's doctors say both are well and plan to quarantine in the white house also jobs friday, october 2, 2020 "squawk box" begins right now.

>> good morning. welcome to "squawk box." andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and melissa lee becky is off today we'll go straight to show you how the markets are reacting on the back of that news. s&p looking to fall 60 points. the biggest pre-market decliners on the you dow looking at boeing, intel and apple off in some cases more than 2 or 3% eamon javers has been covering this story all night and joins us now with the latest >> good morning.

some very tough news for the president, the first lady and their family as the president and first lady have tested positive first, there was a report of bloomberg that hope hicks, the campaign aid to the president, travels with him a lot, tested positive she was seen traveling with the president on air force one, often photographed without a mask as with we watch some of those pictures of hope hicks traveling with the president a lot of the senior aids there shortly after 1:00 a.m. east coast time sending out a letter saying the president and first lady are both well at this time and plan to remain at home at the white house. we don't know whether or not the president is symptomatic or

asymptomatic the physician says he and the first lady are well but does not specify if they are experiencing any symptoms overnight, i spoke to a senior official who told me what the plan was in place if the president did test positive. that's the plan they'll be rolling out here according to this senior official, the plan was to have the president remain at the white house under very close medical scrutiny they'll be consulting with outside experts as needed. this would be similar to if the president had the flu, he would ride it out but with strict staff access so the staff not necessarily able to come in contact. not clear who if anybody will be in follow contact and the first lady will find that out as well.

this is a president as noted has been conducting rallies and had a much higher tolerance for risk as did joe biden he's been throughout the country, throughout the week conducting rallies with large crowds and not wearing masks in that debate overnight, the president mocked the former vice president for wearing a mask here is what he said >> i have a mask right here. i put a mask on when i think i need it. tonight, everybody has had a test, you've had social distancing and all the things. i wear masks when needed i don't wear a mask like him every time you see him, he's wearing a mask he could be speaking 200 feet away and he shows up with the biggest mask you've ever seen. >> we'll need a statement from

the biden campaign and also what biden's status is. we have not heard from the vice president mike pence in terms of his testing status he did put out a statement wishing the family well. we have not heard from his team yet that he's had a negative test there is a plan if the president were to become so sick he is unable to fulfill his duties there is a plan in the constitution in the 25th amendment where he could write a letter to the president of the senate and turnover obligations to the vice president and resume those whenever he feels better and can write a letter saying he's back in action. that would be the worst case scenario no indication there are any symptoms a the this time

>> i have so many questions. of course, we extend our best wishes to the president as a start. beyond that, then we get into questions of contact tracing and other people that may have been exposed over the past week what the process do you think is going to be for that what happens to the campaign and what happens longer term what do you believe the political implications of all of this really are? >> the trpresident was in new jersey for a rally and come in contact with a lot of people all of those people will be

notified obviously a chunk will be tested you have to assume there may be more cases now as for the campaign, given that we are already on october 2nd and may have seen the last of the rally. not clear when he can resume if he can resume before the election how that will affect the dynamic in an important part of the campaign >> that looks unlikely what would it entail >> we had no idea symptoms he's, what, 74, i don't know of

any underlying conditions other than he is a big guy to do the -- >> weight and age are two risk factors. >> assuming what kind of things he comes down with the next debate seems unlikely >> especially the large number of people around the president who may have to quarantine at this point you just don't see how they would pull that off. we go into a campaign frozen in terms of principals. we'll see if joe biden continues

to do that we have that poll early in the week that only 98% of the people said it didn't change their mind one way or another >> a lot of people already set not clear what more tam paining would have made a difference anyway we go into really uncharted territory. what is the vice president's status and the plan for campaigning or not and what is the former vice president's status as well given that he was on stage with president trump earlier. we don't know when he became infected it would seem unlikely that they were tested before that debate we'll wait for more on that. >> aside from the campaign, it

seems that outcome has gone up it seems perhaps the nomination process for supreme court justice could be delayed and maybe not in time for the election that process may have gotten slimmer. >> i don't know about that necessarily. one of mitch mcconnells biggest goals in life is to put supreme court justices in who are conservative and share his view of constitutional world order. i don't see them holding off on that process >> presumably, she was in contact with the president >> right she could test if he's asymptomatic or if she's even positive, she could test

remotely by zoom mitch mcconnell will do everything he possibly can to keep that train rolling down the tracks it is very important to him in terms of his whole life's work i don't think they'll stop if they can find a way to keep moving, they'll do it. >> anywhere in the world, if this happened, you could imagine people around him would put on a brave face but given some of the president's comments and i'm a cheerleader and being positive about it it may be difficult to get the straight dope of what isgoing

about. feeling the transparency and given what will be the skepticism of past comments maybe from the administration. it will be tough for you to find out what is happening. even though he knew it was spreading through the air. he told them he was down playing it he has been a virus skeptic all along. now he'll be ensconced all we'll get now from the statements in the press office and physician if he releases any

statements it is not clear with any regularity the president is asymptomatic. like a lot of people will do, ke ride this out over a couple of days, get a negative test and roll on. even that coming in october with the virus year, even that changes the tenor and dynamic in this direction >> leaving aside some of the worst scenarios here >> dr. scott gottlieb, former fda commissioner, cnbc contributor, board member on pfizer and illumina. starting with, 74 years old, he may be a little bit overweight, yet, the numbers are still on his side with no comorbidities what have we seen?

let's just be clinical about it but what are his risk factors at this point >> caller: thank you for having me we wish the president and melania and hope hicks well. it is deeply concerning. they all have a good chance of doing well he was previously in good health by all reports the critical question for the president or melania or hope or others exposed will give information about the risks they face the question if the president has a risk factor, yes by virtual of being 74 he is reportedly overweight with an elevated bmi. every reason to expect him to recover. we are all wishing him well. the risk is still high for every 1,000 people mid-70s or older who have been infected,

11.6 will succomb. above 75, the risk is 3.4% that's the largest study that has been done based on age alone. this didn't take into account comorbidities. and the president is reported to be in excellent health other studies have been done to show lower risk. in geneva, risk 5.6 perts over the age of 65. another study in spain showing 3.4% for those between 70 and 79 every reason to believe the president will do well and recover. what we need to know is whether or not he's symptomatic. if he remains asymptomatic, ke remain quarantined in the white house. if he becomes sim magnetic it

will be a longer term. incubation time of four to five days from symptom on set >> one reason i said, as a clinician, what do we do right now? we've had you on many times and discussed remdesivir when it is taken and if it could shave days off we went to a steroid then already some type of immune response and also the regeneron antibody cocktail and the plasma what do you think doctors are doing or should be doing with the president? >> they should try considering

remdesivir there is thinking that it probably improves outcomes earlier in the course of the disease. you consider remdesivir. steroids you wouldn't be considering. at this point. that is indicated only when there is the response. the first week when they become sick and require oxygen and go into the second stage where they are having an inflammatory response where steroids are most effective. antibodies could be effective. earlier you introduce those, the better the data on those is so early, i doubt the white house is considering those. i would think given that it is the president and what we have available might be remdesivir.

there is data demonstrating it shows out comes in hospital patients and reason to believe if you introduce those earlier, it would have the same benefit >> doctor, hoping could you comment on testing ers. >> looking at this news saying if the president can get it anybody can. it seemed impervious to covid. do you believe in the quality and b, how long do you need to wait now to find out about the quality of tests going forward for everybody who might have

been around the president. it is possible you could test negative today but maybe four, five, 10 days later, test positive >> my understanding is that the white house is using the after i had i.d. now machines. i don't know if they've changed that we have talked before about the sensitivity of that machine and using it as a screening tool the gene expert -- i don't have any relationship, it's a more sensitive and specific test. not as good as the abbott i.d. now. fur using a test to screen an asymptomatic population and you want really good reliability because it is the president of the united states, you might introduce the gene expert. we've talked about this many times. the question is how did hope

hicks get through that screening process. obviously, she was getting tested a lot it is unclear right now. it is possible she was tested and they got a false negative with the protocol they were using. >> dr. gottlieb, i'm trying to understand how aggressive the contact tracing should be in is there an exposure to the president at which point they should be notified with contact only five seconds. how should we understand this? >> caller: typically, the criteria is 15 minutes of exposure within six feet of distance i suspect given where we are right now and the white house setting will want to be more

aggressive by every measure they have been hearing, they should narrow down the direct contacts. there probably have not been a lot of people. the question of who would be incubating this. i wouldn't be surprise if they test the entire compound today and brought in some different testing equipment to get a more sensitive result >> dr. gottlieb, with so much to talk about here. when you think about all of these priorities it's so troubling. now to talk about the campaign is secondary

when do you think any sense of debate or return to the white house would be necessary you need to be completely virus free like anybody else who is self-quarantining before you'd even consider stepping out >> i think that's right. they are going to do serial tests but he's likely to remain pcr positive and have an extended test for a period of time they might culture and see if he has live virus to understand exactly when he clears the virus, assuming he does well, which we all hope he does well you are right. you are looking at an extended period where the president would

be quarantined out of an abundance of caution they have to follow strict protocols. it does bring into risk his schedule >> doctor, we know you'll be joining us again later on -- you are very important to us today with what is happening today we'll see you a little later thank you for coming on so early. >> thanks a lot. >> thank you, joe. want to bring in another voice from washington on possible policy and stimulus fallout from all of this. joining us now thomas block, washington strategist. good morning to you. you heard melissa ask the question about what it means to the supreme court. we have the stimulus question on the table. how does this change either of those equations right now? >> first, i think everybody

wants to wish the president well it adds an extra element of question when you add a serious illness. it brings home widespread and serious it is. we had seen a flattening of the curve. and maybe jump start the stimulus as we are bogged down the general feeling is that we need one more bite at the apple. >> you believe his covid-19 positive test could ultimately -- the outcome to push stimulus through? >> i think it could. it brings it home. i think the president had been

minimizing it and going to all these rallies. it hits home that this is not going away it is real the president who lives in an incredibly protective bubble and gets the best care on earth that he and his wife can get it it brings at home that we do not see much light at the end of the tunnel right now i think there had been a feeling we were making progress. we have seen this is creeping through the midwest. it is not going away this is a wake-up call we wish the president well but it is a wake-up call there is a bill ready to go. they are so close. talking about above $1.5 trillion on the last offer from the whitehouse.

>> thinking about that still participating in the elections, where we are down most of the people have made up their minds. there are about five states really in play it will be very interested in the next couple of days to see what happens my gut is that this will be a challenge for the president. one, he loves to campaign himself. making the question that maybe the president wasn't dealing with this completely correctly by being so light about it and

making a joke where he made the clip about the president was making light about how the former vice president was wearing a mask all the time. that might not look as silly today as it did the other day. >> do you think this changes the si psyche of the american public. we are showing stocks of travel, hotels and the like. all of them down on the assumption that this hits home and hits hard and suggests to people maybe you are not going to be traveling as much as you thought or as quickly as you were before. does that make sense to you? >> absolutely. i think the president was a cheerleader that this was going

away that is obvious it has been his position even the president living in a bubble with the best medical care, even he can get it that's the wake-up call. the numbers in many states were going up you didn't appreciate that from the white house. at the last debate, he mocked mr. biden for wearing a mask this is a wake-up call everybody has to be more careful about it it is hard to talk about or think about political implications having worked on campaigns, that's what people are doing >> what the markets are trying to digest right now. can you bottom line the political risk for us. as i understand what you are saying, the stimulus will pass, you are saying the risk to the

trump campaign will be great the risk to president trump not being elected goes up. the markets reacted decisively to this news >> i think markets don't like uncertainty. this adds an element of uncertainty. the president as they've said, he's in generally good health, he is overwet and of an age where this becomes more serious more easily. talking about the question with the leader of the world. he's his own best campaigner he loves to campaign these key states, you really identify five or six states. this takes the president out

that takes it off the field. that's an issue. >> i imagine we'll be talking to you more or the coming days and weeks. >> thank you u.s. futures dipped sharply after news of president trump's positive covid test. julianna tatelbaum joins us now from london on the move in the overseas markets good day >> markets are trading well. the moves have been contained. we have seen a selloff gather pace in the last half an hour. every major region is trading lower. in terms of the sector performance, we have seen travel

and leisure hit hardest. investors seem to be taking the news harder for now. it seems european investors are waiting to see what happens next we are seeing the selloff gather pace and the selloff in the european market. european trade is coming under pressure this morning. >> thank you coming up, much more on the market's reaction to the president's positive covid test. the dow looking to be open lower by 421 points. expecting an increase of 800,000 jobs and decrease in unemployment rate of 8.2%. stay tuned, we'll be right back. 20 years ago, i was an hourly

associate cart pusher. the different positions i've had taught me how to be there for others. ♪ i started out as a cashier. i mean, the sky's the limit with walmart. it's all up to you. ♪ ♪

hey, our worker's comp insurance is expiring. should i just renew it? yeah, sure. hey there, small business owner. pie insurance here with some sweet advice to stop you from overpaying on worker's comp. try pie instead and save up to 30%. thirty percent? really? sure! get a quote in 3 minutes at easyaspie.com. that is easy. so, need another reminder? no, i'm good. reminder for what? oh. ho ho, yeah! need worker's comp insurance? get a quote in 3 minutes at easyaspie.com.

welcome back we are going to take a quick pause and tell you about other news trian planning to push for deals that will build a rival in asset managers shares roughly around $900 million coming in part from a long-term fund built on bringing consolidation. that fund previously hadn't been reported trying to grow funds like janus. more coming up, the president's

positive test for covid could impact the supreme court n nomination looking at futures, dow off will 410, nasdaq looking to open down 233 points and s&p 500 looking to open down about 50 points we'll be back with more coverage and implications of the president's positive covid-19 test as business moves forward, we're all changing the way things get done. like how we redefine collaboration... how we come up with new ways to serve our customers... and deliver our products. but no matter how things change, one thing never will... you can rely on the people and the network of at&t... to help keep your business connected.

good job, michael! does. ok, lindsey now tell the class what your mommy does... my mom has super powers. it's like she can see the future. what?! it's like she time travels in a rocket ship. that's cool! and then she comes back saying "try this" or "try that." she helps everyone. she helps them feel less worried. wow! mommy, so what is it that you do? i'm a financial advisor. she is! aig proudly supports all the professionals

taking care of our financial futures.

good morning, welcome back to "squawk box." markets reacting sharply on the news president trump tested positive for coronavirus the dow looks like it will open down 373 points. nasdaq off 223 points. s&p 500 down about 51 points getting an update on what it could mean for the president's

supreme court nominee and the stalemate in washington. two issues where the story line could change >> i want to be clear that most of what we've seen so far from lawmakers are well wishes and hopes of a speedy recovery for the president and first lady some are starting to say that this news underscores the news of the white house and nancy pelosi striking another deal on a stimulus package on twitter, barragan said, for his sake and that of cower inter core, we need national tracing, testing and treatment. we have not heard yet from the

time line of nominating the supreme court nominee amy coney barrett. she was with the president last week outside and in the rose garden but neither wearing masks. will she need to quarantine and does that delay the process? the senate is working on a very tight schedule for this confirmation, so they do not have a lot of wiggle room. back over to you >> you are right we don't know. we don't know the contact tracing. it may have been more recent than last week at this point, all bets are off. thank you. for more market implications, let's bring in jenny herring ton, cnbc contributor. we are walking along this line here, jenny, we are talking about the president and the

first lady just talking about what this means for stimulus all in an uncomfortable way, we've come this far, what do you think it means for what we were watching yesterday and the day before and the market was keen off of any type of body language from speaker pelosi or secretary mnuchin or democrats or republicans, what do you think this means for the pofblt stimulus >> i don't think that this changes too much in reality. i like to go to what is stat tisicily probable here >> being clinical in his thoughts, what gottlieb said is a 3.4% chance, which means 96%

plus chance president trump is fine we have tremendous checks and balances here. we don't depend on one person even though it might feel like we do. what we will see is that the stimulus marches on, the supreme court nomination marches on, the economy marches on and life marches on i am not being a chicken little. i do not think the sky is falling. i'm marching along with my own market narrative which is unchanged from where it was yesterday. >> it is going to get old starting every sentence off. we don't want to be too pessimistic. on the stock market, this is not even 2% at this point.

markets do react, there are a lot of smart people, a lot of them, that would be moving in a much bigger fashion and will, i'm sure, every data point could influence how the markets are reacting at this point, are not that significant especially for how far the markets have come. >> right it depends on the time frame if you are a short-term trader if you are long-term oriented, nothing has changed. going back to the probability, i like to watch election betting ods. last night, was that biden had a 21% lead national poll shows 8% or 9% lead i'm thinking the statistic call outcome is a biden win the probability of president

trump being just fine, which i think between the things we have and information we've gathered, odds are, he's just fine i don't think this changes if you are a short-term trader and you love news and volatility and emotion in there, let that happen but make sure you know who you are. are you a jenny who looks out to the long run and stays calm and even keel, this doesn't change anything or are you a trader looking for noise to take advantage of short-term dislocations or short-term movements >> in for any reason, president trump is not president on january 20, whether this makes it less likely to come pain or if there are still undecides out there or people who need to get energized, however you characterize it, if this makes it more like lie that joe biden

becomes president with some of what we know he's been talking about for 28% capital gains or corporate taxes, higher capital gains, raising taxes on individuals over $400,000. regulation, he's distancing himself from the new green deal but maybe not that much. i just have a different one. do you find any of that concerning for long-term holders of the stock market or it would depend on the senate and the market doesn't care that much about who the next president is. >> i think the market cares a lot. this might be nie yeef of me it was so interesting to watch the debate, to see biden jump up in the betting odds to see the market take it in stride i've been listening to a lot of

strategists. each one was expecting a biden win. that was going to the big funds where they are expecting that. interesting to see that reconfirmed to the market response to biden's lead post the debate with respect to taxes increasing, i thinks it really important we remember from an economic perspective, that is money shuffling around if my capital gains rate goes up tharks is dollars coming out of the whole. maybe dollars coming out of jenny's pocket and going somewhere else maybe that pays for an infrastructure plan. who knows. one of the things that bothers me, every president takes so much credit for the economy has been so great under my watch let's be real, the economy is

great because of decades of improvement, decades of entrepreneurs doing amazing things the economy is a beast of its own and marches on all corporations -- we believe, i believe, corporations weren't really thinking those tax cuts were permanent at that level i don't know if they thought they'd stay four years or eight years. just give them the information, they'll figure out how to thrive i'm human, you are human, give us what we've got and we'll figure out how to thrive i don't think those tax increases derail us, they change the picture. they are not derailing nothing has been derailing to the u.s. >> if you had a democratic president and bernie sanders as president, you think you've got the market and years and years

that's what i just heard >> what about regulation you did see wage gains, in eight years prior with regulations and tax return under obama versus what we saw in the first three years before covid-19. obviously on the margin, there were very productive things happening. >> there are >> were. >> to say it is meaningless who is sitting in the oval office and policies don't make a difference if you take the bernie mentality to the logical extension, i can show you countries around the world where it did matter what policies were in effect. >> bernie is not on the ticket that's a different structure, that's a socialist structure >> right

joe biden will push. he won't answer questions about backing the core why is that? he won't answer questions alienating the left. a lot of things riding on this whether the market has just digested it or doesn't believe it yet, that's open to speculation. >> ago. >> he has two years to get that done, right? so we've got another mid-term election coming up in two years after this election. if things get too crazy and too far to the left, don't you think in two years the senate would swing more republican and bring that check and balance back in and rebalance things >> i do. >> maybe not >> may or may not. we didn't swing back for eight years, did it? anyway, thank you. we appreciate it we'll see you again soon. >> thanks for having me. >> coming up, stocks on the move after the president's positive covid test cruise lines, airlines, oil all topping the list there

reminder, you can watch or listen to us live any time on the cnbc app "squawk box" will be right back. (♪ ) keeping your oysters growing while keeping your business growing

has you swamped. (♪ ) you need to hire i need indeed indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a shortlist of quality candidates from a resume data base so you can start hiring right away. claim your seventy-five-dollar credit when you post your first job at indeed.com/promo

welcome back to "squawk box. futures off the worst levels after the session after president trump and the first lady tested positive with the coronavirus. s&p looking to open lower by 48 points dow looking to lose 330. we'll get back to the president's covid test and what it means in a minute tesla going to report earnings. >> reporter: when tesla reports the q3 deliveries, this should be a record quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries based on the fact that they have expanding production not only here in the u.s. at the fremont plant, but also over in china that will be the focus when they report these deliveries later today. what can people expect the focus for this year is deliveries of at least 500,000 vehicles we'll have a better sense after today where they are they are expected to deliver at

least 137,000 vehicles that's the consensus that is out there. again, after this quarter we'll know what their guidance is for full year deliveries, how many they'll need to come up with to get deliveries of 500,000. shares of tesla, keep in mind china is going to be the focus of their delivery reports. what they're seeing in terms of ramping up production. china and evs, i know tesla has had a heck of a run. take a look at neo we're not saying neois on the same size and scale of tesla in terms of investor enthusiasms there is some. >> phil lebeau, thanks coming up, we're going to take you live to washington for the latest on all the developments of the night which when did you hear, andrew? i was up at 1:19

you know, i'm up a lot and i actually was checking an nfl score and my daughter had called me my phone was turned off there it was at 1:19 she said i don't want to scare you, but this is what happened i knew at 1:19 which didn't make for a great restful night of sleep but i don't think -- some ywople still don't know. anay "squawk box" will be right back. we'll talk about all of this but now quickbooks helps me get paid, manage cash flow, and run payroll. and now i'm back on top... with koala kai. save over 30 hours a month with intuit quickbooks.

for as little as $5, now anyone can own companies in the s&p 500, even if their shares cost more. at $5 a slice, you could own ten companies for $50 instead of paying thousands. all commission free online. schwab stock slices: an easy way to start investing or to give the gift of stock ownership. schwab. own your tomorrow.

breaking news. president trump and first lady melania trump have tested positive for the coronavirus the president's doctor saying both are well and will quarantine in the white house. this just hours after test results from one of the president's closest aides came in positive as well. plus a jobs report preview and the latest on the stimulus from washington is all straight ahead as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and melissa lee.

we have breaking news this morning. just hours ago president trump and first lady melania trump testing positive for the coronavirus. the president tweeting just before 1 a.m. that he and the first lady will begin the quarantine and recovery process immediately. let's show you the markets we look like we are in the red across the board the dow looking to open down about 347 points on this news. the s&p 500 will open down about 48 points if we did it right now. the nasdaq will open down about 210 points a number of the big travel-related stocks will take a big hit this morning we'll have a lot more on the next steps for the white house and testing others who may have been exposed from dr. scott gottleib in the next half hour before we do that, i want to get to eamon javers who has been working this story all night and has the latest for us. >> reporter: good morning again, andrew this news began to unfold last

night with a report that hope hicks, one of the president's closest aides on the campaign, had tested positive for the coronavirus. then there was a period of time when we did not know what the president's status was hope hicks is obviously a close personal contact with the president on a regular basis she's been in close personal contact with a number of senior administration officials over the past week traveling with him out to venues and to the presidential debate. take a look at this list that nbc news has put together of all of the people inside the white house who have been in contact with hope hicks just this week on this travel you see there's more than 20 officials here who have been seen with hope hicks not necessarily always wearing a mask touching some of the same handles as they go up the stairs to air force one, on the plane, moving around. all of those people will have to be contact traced and tested you can imagine the scale of the effort that is unraveling and

who has been exposed, who has covid. the president defending himself earlier in the week. the president was asked about his decision to continue holding large in person rallies. a lot of these rallies were the people in attendance did not wear masks the president said he simply had to continue on the campaign trail. here's that moment >> in any case, why are you holding the big rallies? why are you not? you go first, sir. >> because people want to hear what i have to say well, so far we have had no problem whatsoever it's outside, that's a big difference according to the experts. we do them outside we have tremendous crowds, as you see. i mean, every -- and literally on 24 hours' notice. joe does the circles and has three people someplace. >> okay. >> reporter: now we're getting international reaction rolling in, guys, as well. take a look at this tweet. this is from hu xijin.

the editor of the global ties. he's very close with the chinese government in beijing often tweets reflections of their views on the world he is tweeting this morning, president trump and the first lady have paid the price for his gamble to play down the covid-19 the news shows the severity of the u.s.'s pandemic situation. it will impose a negative impact on the image of trump and the u.s. and may also negatively affect his re-election so many unanswered questions here, guys, in terms of the campaign, the stimulus, the battle for the supreme court all of those ongoing right now clearly campaigning activities will not be able to continue on the president's side as normal for some weeks now no word yet from the biden campaign about what their plans are. the stimulus, it's unknown how this will affect the negotiations which are ongoing as we speak. then in terms of the supreme

court, congress will push forward and everybody involved in that process will be contact traced and tested to make sure anyone who has come in contact with the president over the past week including amy coney barrett, the president's nominee for the supreme court, gets a negative test so a lot of moving parts this morning >> eamon, before you go, let's walk through the contact tracing and what the circle might look like in terms of who has been in contact with the president obviously the biden campaign given the debate, you mentioned the supreme court nominee. i wonder also about people like treasury secretary steven mnuchin who's in the middle obviously of trying to cut a deal with nancy pelosi how big a circle are we talking about here >> well, it's been a limited circle in recent months. this he have made efforts to keep the president out of contact with as many people as possible, but still, you know, dozens of people who come in contact with the president on a

regular basis. you know, there's 100 people or more flying on air force one at any given point in time including all the staff, aides, military folks and all of the people involved in that process. we've seen the president on air force one a couple of times this week and hope hicks was on air force one without a mask this week as well there are a large number of people, hundreds of people here who are going to be implicated the first person you want to talk about though is the vice president. we'll need to get information this morning from mike pence's team whether he has had a negative test since the president tested positive. that goes to a continuity of government issue if the president were to become incapacitated because of illness, the vice president would pick up the duties of the presidency on a temporary basis. the country will want to know what his status is and if he's tested positive. speaker pelosi given she's been in contact with steven be mnuchin who has been in contact with white house officials we don't know when mnuchin was

in physical contact with the president last or physically in the oval office or west wing we'll endeavor to find that out. you can imagine health officials, secret service, capitol police and a whole range of other authorities in washington are scrambling aggressively to figure out what the damage is and to contain it as best as possible. >> i would imagine there's well wishes from leaders around the world. i thought that was an interesting one, eamon, just from the perspective of china and how they feel about the upcoming election. that's the ccp's take which is also interesting given their initial -- you know, what we now know was done in terms of transparency and letting the who in, united states in and the way the virus did, you know, come from that part of the world and everything else. that's an interesting take from the ccp and propaganda from china on that. >> sure. >> but it sounds like -- it

almost sounded like gloating that wasn't a great quote i don't think there. right? >> yeah. look, it's clearly blame game, right? >> yeah. >> the clay niece government -- >> quite a response to the president and first lady, he deserved it? that's rich. that's like ccp propaganda. >> the president has been calling this the china virus for months now and there's reseptemberment in beijing over that and there's resentment in the united states with the way the president feels the chinese handled this in the first place. the two sides have been staring eyeball to eyeball over this issue for months it's going to continue to be ugly you're right let's get to meg tirrell who is looking at some of the treatments that may be available for the president and the first lady meg, we had dr. scott gottleib on i asked him to be a clinician, not a policy maker he said probably remdesivir would be in his view the one that has enough data and that

works at this point theoretically if you're diagnosed with covid is that what you've come up with i'm sure you've been making a lot of calls. >> yeah. absolutely, joe. if you look at the nih's own treatment guidelines for the novel coronavirus, remdesivir of course is the drug with the most evidence behind it it has emergency use authorization. now the guidelines acknowledge that there had been limited supply of remdesivir and the recommendation right now is to use it in hospitalized patients. they say there's insufficient data on remdesivir in mild to moderate patients for them to make a recommendation. of course, as dr. gottleib said, the expectation for a drug to work the way remdesivir works would be successful when given earlier. this is the president of the united states. he's going to get the best care no matter what on top of that, just yesterday there was news remdesivir is no longer in limited supply

it is, of course, likely the president could receive that drug in terms of other medicines that are available for the coronavirus, dexamethasone has been proven and that is specifically for patients who are on oxygen, who are in severe stages of the disease and not recommended for patients in the earlier course of the disease, mild to moderate patients which we have every indication that the president is in. there are other approaches, including of course hydroxychloroquine that is not recommended for patients with the coronavirus who are not hospitalized the nih says only in clinical trials would they use hydroxychloroquine we know the president said he was taking it preventively it's not recommended as a treatment. there are experimental treatments that have just had positive data for the coronavirus. we just saw data from regeneron on its antibody cocktail

previously we had seen data from lilty on the single anti-body treatment. they have only completed initial clinical trials. the companies are in discussions with regulators about what to do with them. i have been reaching out to the companies. not hearing they have been asked to provide them to the president. there are experimental ones from merck and pfizer that is the treatment guidelines that we see from the nih dr. gottleib saying this morning there's every reason to expect the president will recover he will get the absolute best care in the entire world, however, given his age of 74 and risk factors including his bmi, which is just slightly over 30, which is considered a threshold where the risk for hospitalization goes up by three times compared with people who don't have other conditions,

there is a risk that he will have more severe disease guys >> yeah. all right, meg that covers it we're going to have dr. gottleib back on. we'll obviously highlight some of the things that you were just reporting on you mentioned it, but the steroid dr. gottleib is talking about, that is used much further along in the progression of the -- where it becomes not just the virus but more the immune response to the virus. regeneron, not quite enough data yet, is there? that's very promising. >> yeah. regeneron we've seen data on 275 patients in the placebo controlled trial and it was in patients who have the coronavirus but were not hospitalized that is the indication that president trump is in. and it showed that it reduced the viral load

it appeared well tolerated in both doses and it appeared to improve time to recovery from symptoms however, this is a phase one, two trial. it's the first phase and they were beginning to speak with regulators about it. it will be very interesting to see how they consider the use of experimental drugs here, especially when you do have one that has emergency use authorization. we didn't mention convalescent plasma but the nih says there is insufficient evidence to recommend its use. >> exactly we asked scott about that as well he had the same thoughts we're going to see him a little bit later, meg thank you. melissa. markets certainly reacting to the news. let's bring in joe tara nova and jim urio great to have you both joe, i'll start off with you what in your view is the greatest political risk that the markets are digesting right now?

>> reporter: well, i think this elevates the possibility of a contested election and markets in the month of september and the news elevates that. >> joe, your view -- i mean, jim, sorry >> no, i think the markets hate uncertainty and that's what we're seeing the most this morning, too there's something i would like to point out the reaction is generally fueled by market position and people's attitudes towards risk going into it. the vix is up around 30. people know there are risk's ahead. so what i'm saying, if we were at all-time highs and the vix were at 12, we were to price in this dramatically strong event, the market reaction could be more severe. i'm not all that worried the market's job is to price in worst case scenarios and work in from there i'm relatively okay with the way

the markets performed so far. >> basically the 4% or so decline in the month of september on the s&p 500, that's really helping the markets this morning absorb this shock? >> i believe there's no question about that i think when people are caught off guard, that's when the shocks become much more severe you said the 4% decline in the s&p over the month the lows in the market, they were down 15%. that shows some of the edges were trimmed prior to this there's not as much chance for a market panic until the story develops perhaps at that point in time, but right now it's uncertainty. >> we've been talking to people about this this morning. we've been speaking to a strategist one risk is that president trump himself, the greatest asset of his own campaign, cannot campaign therefore, his state might be a little bit weakened going into this election. your cohort on the halftime report jenny harrington said markets were pricing in a biden

victory, all the endowments, pension funds, all of them have priced this in talk about off sides if you believe that, then maybe the markets are off sides in terms of believing biden victory. we saw what happened four years ago when people were off sides on pricing in a hillary victory. >> i'm not going to speculate on the outcome of the election. >> sure. we're talking about positioning. >> it's a hypothetical what doesn't change, melissa, is the $90 trillion of global liquidity that sits under the market that is the hand and instrument for the markets. i would say this certainly i mentioned before elevating the potential for a contested election there are other conditions that are elevated we need to focus more on what the labor report is going to look like this morning we're seeing a little bit of a downward trend in the monthly gains for non-fund payroll

disney,united airlines, disney we know the house is supposed to leave until after the election we don't have a stimulus bill. that elevates the importance, rather, of the labor report this morning. i also think next week's debate between vice president pence and kamala harris, that is something people will be watching now that we have this news even more. i think we're all waiting for president trump's tweet this morning, which i'm sure at some point we will get, and we'll see how markets react once we get that. >> the tweet meaning the tweet that will supposedly prop up the markets or what kind of tweet are we talking about >> well, what is contained in the president's tweet only he will know, but i'm sure he will be using twitter aggressively to communicate with the american people. >> that's like saying the sun is

going to rise tomorrow. >> even more now >> jim, you were talking about what is being priced into the market right now in december it implies that market participants are bracing for this period of volatility in election outcome uncertainty specifically volatility is going to be more expensive in december versus november do you think that changes given what has happened? >> probably. i think volatility will be in the front months joe hit on something that i'd like to underline and put an exclamation mark on it the $90 trillion every time we have market problems we see a ramp up in the talk from the federal government about spending i don't know why i think this yet, but for some reason i think this makes the stimulus package more likely to be passed relatively soon and, again, i haven't connected that in my head as to why i think that, but for some reason i think it does.

>> you mean the covid, president's -- >> no, i think the president testing positive and this dominating now the news cycle for now somehow makes the stimulus package more likely to be passed. again, hopefully later in the day i'll figure out why i think that but i do for some reason. >> do the markets rally if the stimulus passes at this point, joe, do you think? >> i think the markets are going to respond more to the unemployment report in the near term if there is a stimulus package, yes, i think we will return to the highs we've recently witnessed around 3400 and 34 1/4 i don't know that the market says you will get a stimulus that will be a positive surprise >> thank you both. something occurred to me, and i want to ask your two guests this. i just thought about if this goes quickly and he does really well, let's say, and then i've thought about it, if i could get

antibodies, i'd feel like willey wonka and the golden ticket. to be able to go where you're going and not worry about it anymore. if that happened quickly, let's say two weeks, the president does well, he's out and about and beats this thing and is able to go to i guess at that point rallies, you still have joe biden, vice president biden 77 years old, probably should be very careful, obviously, everybody should, but i'm just wondering whether that dynamic has been considered? but that would only leave about two weeks, andrew, to the actual election it's not like you can't make up for two weeks that you've lost >> look, you could -- you know, if you were trying to look at the positive outcome for the president, you could argue that there are going to be supporters of his who are going to sympathize with him. >> right. >> by the way this morning the trump/pence campaign is out with

a letter to his supporters trying to get money, asking for donations, quote, to help him recover from this disease. they're already out with letters using his positive test to try to raise money you could argue that perhaps this is going to help push a stimulus plan forward which could arguably help the economy, potentially help the markets if you wanted to, i could make the positive argument. i'm not sure it ultimately would be the accurate one, but i could make it. >> there's another one, too -- >> permutations with which this could go. >> if he gets through it and it's a long way off, we saw what happened to prime minister johnson, if he were to get through it, he would say, look, i told you this is no worse than the blue, i'm -- i don't know. you could see a lot of different scenarios play out

>> joe, you saw prime minister johnson actually get a lift in public support once he recovered from the virus in subsequent weeks. i agree with you, it's very unknown which direction this is going to take. >> exactly. >> obviously this is very erratic, this virus. as they say, time will tell. >> the one thing i'd throw in real quick, guys, is that at the beginning when the story drops, markets always priced in the worst possible outcomes. it's usually hours later when we start waiting through it and decide, this will be quite good. to your point, andrew, i think absolutely the market will be better because of this. >> i don't know if that was andrew -- >> i'll give you credit. whatever you want. >> i don't -- don't give me credit god forbid god forbid

don't do that. thank you, guys. the september jobs report is due out at 8:30 eastern. for a look at what investors can expect -- wait a minute, there's a jobs report today, liesman >> yeah. look, my thoughts go out to the president and the first lady for a speedy recovery, but the jobs number is coming out, joe. markets have to deal with it let's do a quick preview it is the last jobs report before the presidential election expect strong job growth but moderating job growth. still leaves the total number of jobs well below the pre-pandemic level. we're looking for 800,000 jobs according to the dow jones consensus. unemployment rates seen ticking down 8.2% average hourly wages up 0.2. temporary payrolls, right in line, 740,000. u.s. economy is back half of the jobs if the wall street

consensus is right it will be 11 million below where it was in february several high frequency data series followed by us at cnbc. some suggest job growth could be stronger work over the course of the month, growth is better than august stephen stanley points out the jobless rate has fallen far faster than anticipated and i expect, that's stephen stanley, that is, that trend to continue in september as i look for decline to below 8%. it raises questions about job strength as well as the presence of federal stimulus. >> thanks, steve you heard joe taranova, steve, talking about the first tweet we see from the president depending on the jobs number, i

mean, do you think -- are you expecting a comment on, oh -- from the president that's not out of the question if it was a good jobs number, for the president to say something about the jobs number? >> no, that's right. that's right and to your last comment, as you know, my wife had this disease and immunity will be good. she's very careful, actually, but i think your speculation is very interesting, but the hopes that everybody takes this seriously now, joe >> yeah. we just found out eight hours -- who knows what the future holds. but we're hoping for the best. anyway, thank you. steve, we're going to continue along this >> yes >> president trump and the first lady, melania trump testing

positive tweeting before 1 a.m. that they will begin the quarantine and recovering immediately our next guest is a long-time friend of president trump for more than 35 years very active in fundraising for the president now and in 2016. how ward dworber, founder and ceo of the vector group. howard, we're coming in and going to talk about real estate, but first just your comments, hear about your relationship with the president and your thoughts on the news that broke overnight. >> well, i know that covid has no bounds so i'm praying for the president and the first lady to make a speedy recovery >> and just knowing -- we were just talking about potentially the president tweeting today would you imagine if he's feeling pretty good that he'll be engaged like he always is or will quarantine just mean

probably that we're not going to hear much out of the white house for a couple of days >> no, i don't think that will change i think he'll do what he normally does, be at work and do the best he can do. >> in terms of what the markets have been reacting to this week, that is stimulus, as a real estate guy, are you hoping the two sides can come together at some point whether it's 1.5 trillion, 2.3 trillion, whatever it is, are you hopeful are you optimistic >> yeah, i'm hopeful i don't think it has anything to do with being a real estate guy. i think as a human being and caring about people having jobs, being able to live, pay their bills, we need additional stimulus i was never really worried too much about deficits. they generally seem to take care of themselves at some point.

we're in such a low interest rate environment, it's not that harmful. i'm hoping for a deal on the stimulus package i think it's important i think it will spur the economy at this pint >> andrew, do you have a question >> howard, i'm just thinking as an old friend of president trump's if you could sort of take us inside his mind to some extent politically he has always been quite clever about how to take even bad situations and try to turn them into positive instances. how do you think he'll do that in this instance >> i don't know. he's going to do what he normally does. what's in his mind is in his mind and generally you're not going to know about it until he does it or says it i think he does what he thinks is the right thing to do, but i

have no real -- >> howard, do you think this changes the perception among any of his supporters about how he's approached the issue of covid given, you know, his comments just at this past debate about biden using masks and effectively making fun of him for using masks? do you think there are any supporters that will turn away from him because of what's happened here? >> i doubt it but i really have no knowledge of what someone else is going to do. >> do you think -- i tried, you tried, andrew, i don't think we're going to get much here on the personal stuff from howard, which is fine. in terms of new york real estate, howard, and big city real estate, i know that i've heard anecdotally that it's pretty crowded trying to get into the city. i can't -- new york city i can't tell whether that's because no one's taking mass transit and everybody is driving because they're afraid of mass

transit and you are ready. what do you think? do we have a future? >> we definitely have a future as i said last time i was on, new york city is not dead. maybe it was in a temporary coma it's coming out of that. there is traffic, people are around the real estate market has picked up. this september versus '19 was the strongest september in sales and at all points, not just the 1 to 2 million points that we talked about last time i was on but also on the high end in the last few weeks we have about pfeifffive or six contracr $20 million. most of them happen to be downtown, you know, at this point, with i is interesting, but we've had a couple of $30 million deals, a couple $20 million deals. so things have really picked up.

with low interest rates and lower prices, i think, you know, what else is there to do with your money today i think people are looking at it as entry points are low enough to come into it and it's more affordable at the higher end the people who have the money are looking for bargains and the apartments sold are discounted quite a bit from a couple of years ago. >> howard, somewhat of a political question for you that relates to new york and also relates to your friend, the president. there is a view among the political class here in new york that if president trump were to win a second term, that the race for new york which is so crucial would move even more left, more

progressive to the president winning the second term as a backlash do you agree with that prognosis? what do you think the implications are >> you know what, i'm not a politician i can't be tell you what's going to happen. i guess my initial comment, probably i already said it, i'm not sure it can go that much further left realistically i can't comment and tell you what i think is going to happen. i think that will be bad for the city it's been pretty bad for the city hopefully it won't happen. >> andrew, yeah. left of de blasio -- i think it's like a time space continuum. i think you end up on the right if you go -- yeah. i think it bends over on it self no is there anything further left than de blasio, andrew >> no, but i know a number of

new york city real estate invest horse would be trump supporters and they have turned because they're worried about the backlash and care more about the market in terms of the national one in terms of their own politics. >> don't you think the backlash in terms of how far left de blasio has been than trump being re-elected as the president? i think new york's got its own dynamics based on the last however long -- i don't know howard lorber, thank you we appreciate it i know you were going to talk real estate and all of this happened and good to get a few thoughts on because you know the president so well. thanks melissa. coming up, the news just keeps on coming in a news on the housing market and the covid-related mortgage bailout. a stimulus plan passing the senate we've dipped a little bit lower in the past half hour. s&p 500 lower 54 points. nasdaq looking to lose 247

we'll be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. before becoming a ufc champion, ronda rousey was the first u.s. woman to win an olympic gold medal in what marshall art boerhecn "uabcsqwk x" continues aflac! now tell me, what does aflac do? aflac pays you money directly to help with unexpected medical bills. and is aflac health insurance? no, but it can help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover! that's right. are there any questions? -coach! -yes? can i get one of those cool blue blazers? you know i can't play favorites. alright let's talk coverage. it's go time! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. mmm hmm! get to know us at aflac.com

but we are hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uh... boss: doug? sorry about that. umm...what...its...um... boss: you alright? [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures contract prices around. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. before becoming a ufc champion, ronda rousey was the first u.s. woman to win an olympic gold medal in what marshall art the answer, judo welcome back to "squawk box. i'm diana olick with breaking news on the mortgage market. after improving for six straight weeks, the numbers are going in the wrong direction again on the mortgage bailout the amount of mortgages in pandemic-related bailout plans rose by 21,000 in the past week. that is according to black knight

so as of september 29th roughly 3.6 million homeowners remain in forbearance. that is 6.8% of all active mortgages which together represent 751 billion in unpaid principal. the increase was not across all mortgage types but among bank heald and private label security loans and to a lesser extent among fha and va loans that was offset by a decline of 9,000 fannie mae and freddie mac loans in forbearance the programs initiated at the start of the pandemic allow borrowers to delay their monthly payments for at least three months and for up to a year. forbearance is granted in three-month terms. so far more than 75% of borrowers in bailouts are on extension since march. fha and va loans are in trouble. they are likely to be in trouble and likely to be the hardest hit

economically by the pandemic joe? >> diana, thank you. the house meanwhile passing a $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus plan. the bill will not likely get through the republican held senate ylan mui has that. good morning. >> reporter: good morning, joe the house is still in session, which means that lawmakers are still in town so there is a very small window for action. the house went ahead and passed that $2.2 trillion bill along party lines after talks broke down between the treasury secretary and house speaker nancy pelosi she told reporters she is still in communication with the treasury secretary they're still exchanging documents, but when she was asked about the possibility of a deal she said, i don't know. it just depends. we'll see. early this morning they said the

fact that they could contract the virus underscores action they said the first couple are symbols of how far the pandemic can reach. >> spending more time indoors and so the best thing we can do is to invest in our own safety going forward. i hope it brings people back to the table in that we can leave washington before the end of this week with a deal. >> reporter: now the other people in this are the senate republicans. they called it outlandish. back over to you >> ylan, thank you we'll take a quick look at what all of this has meant for the stock market and the futures as you can see, we're down about 409 points right now on the dow. the nasdaq down 253. s&p indicated down about 56 points or so

gold went up originally, guys? bitcoin went down. gold, where is it now? it's down a little bit okay is that the way it -- >> meantime, joe -- >> earlier did it immediately trade off or went up >> been sort of like this almost -- for a few hours, i think. >> as i said, because the reason i brought it up i'm looking at supposedly digital gold and it's never acting -- it's never acting that way. it's a risk off. go ahead, andrew. >> meantime, we've got sirat sethi with us trying to help us make sense of this news. sarat, your initial thoughts when you first heard the news and as we're looking at the futures all pointing in the red.

>> andrew, i think what this is causing is much more uncertainty into a market that was already facing uncertainty, whether it came to the fiscal stimulus and elections. throw this on top of it, the market was already in a fragile state and the economy in a fragile state. having said that, we are keeping our positions. the market's had a good run since march. are we going to give some of it back absolutely that was expected. if you look over data, the market gives it back at this point it will be very important to see what happens in washington with the stimulus the other thing is we have the fed behind us. i think there is going to be a floor to this market the next few weeks are going to be volatile. it's going to be a stock picking investor's market now. >> so, sarat, that's what i was going to say i've been emailing with a number of well-known hedge fund managers this morning who say they anticipate buying today

they're looking at some of the travel stocks, for example, that are getting hit hard i think they're thinking this is a temporary situation. are you a believer the american citizen looks at the president of the united states getting covid and saying to themselves, you know what, i'm not getting on an airplane now >> i don't believe so. i mean, i'm in the camp of, yeah, i think there could be opportunities there and, you know, we do own delta and that space. i think if that sells off we could be a good purchase there there are going to be some really good value stokcks that already are cheap. go after high quality companies with strong balance sheets and strong brands. i think that's the way to go we've been doing that for the last three months. we've been wrong the trade has been the stay at home trade if some of the cyclic calls, value stocks, jpmorgan, gm, these are good companies, honeywells that i think will be -- it might not be today. this might carry on for a couple

of weeks just like we had in the march, the uncertainty until congress figures out what they're doing, you're going to get some opportunity here and there and i think also some quality tech names if the oracles sells off or qualcomms sell off, the market we've talked about for months has been focused on five faang stocks this opportunity for those investors who missed it in the last pull back coming forward, this could be a time to put more money to work >> when you say that reopening trade faulter like this this morning, sarat, do you think we go back to the old playbook where you have the stay at home trades working and the refocus on big cap technology, do you think we go back even if it's a short period of time that rotation, does it get put on hold because of what we're

seeing >> i think you're right. what's going to happen is money flow is going to move into these tech stocks, but if you're a long-term investor and you have a horizon for more than six months, i think these value stocks that have been continually beaten down, where you want to prune your portfolio, do some management, i still like the high quality tech stocks i'm not saying sell them, take down your positions. they're like the bonds they're going to do well when things are down. money will flow into the faangs. this is a great opportunity to say i think we're closer to getting a better return on cyclicals and the values in the next six to nine months. you have to hold your nose those that do it will come out with better results. >> sarat, we have only 40 seconds. rapid fire permutations, stimulus, more likely or less as a function of this >> i think more likely as a

function of this i think congress needs to do this because people are going to look for more money to come to them >> okay. number two, more likely or less that the president wins a second term >> at this point, uncertain. it all depends on, you know, how he does in the next couple of weeks. so i can't really make a call on that if he comes through it, then i think he's more likely to win. >> joe >> no, i was just -- before we go to break i was going to talk to melissa there's some other weird news as an aside, weird news about bitcoin and trades on its own. i did read initially gold did go up it was up by half a percent reversing asian losses after trump tested positive for covid-19, went all the way to 1922 on u.s. gold futures. there. go got a nice chart i hate looking like i don't have -- and it happens a lot,

like i don't have any idea what's going on. i was right about something, i've got to make sure that i -- >> i only spoke to the past few hours, not the 2, 3:00 -- >> since the covid diagnosis. >> yeah. yeah yeah. >> thanks for the correction but it actually did spike. >> you're right, joe >> thank you >> you are right as always >> thank you thank you. i'll give you one positive theory about how this is positive for the economy more people will wear masks as a function of this which will allow -- >> unless the president remains asymptomatic and does well and recovers like that there's always the other side. >> on the other side of this, i think we've got gottleib he has all the answers. >> coming up former fda commissioner dr. scott gottleib. that interview is next "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning president trump testing positive for coronavirus and aid hicks. dr. scott gottleib and meg tirrell. we've been talking to you about the implications of the president and first lady testing positive, doctor i wanted to get your thoughts around the question we were

asking before the break, do you think this changes behavior? for so very long the president has avoided masks, made fun of joe biden at the debate for wearing masks. they said maybe there will be a good implication for the economy as a result. >> yeah, look, i think it's too early to tell what messages people will take away from this. they were doing a lot of test bei ing to keep this out of the compound yet the president still became vulnerable and infected by coronavirus. so i think it demonstrates that really we're all at risk of contracting this infection this is a highly contagious

infection. now there's going to be a lot of questions about who was around him while he was incubating this including at the debates depending on how the president does, he does do well, we're all hoping for that outcome, it could reinforce for a lot of people this infection is relatively benign. a lot of people have a benign course so it can cut the other way. it's too early to tell what message consumers are going to take away from this. >> in terms of contact tracing and the circle around the president, how wide do you think that that effort is going to need to be who do you think it would encompass? >> everyone. they'll cast a very wide net a traditional approach to how we would think of contact tracing in the real world isn't going to apply here i think they're going to do much

more aggressive contact tracing and probably quarantine a lot of people until they get a negative result just given what you're dealing with, the white house compound there are other senior government officials in touch with the president the vice president has been out of pound i believe he hasn't been in contact with the president since tuesday. he's obviously been tested and so that's going to be an immediate question as well about making sure the vice president's safe i think they're going to cast a wide net on contact tracing. this will look much more aggressive. >> meg, i know you've been looking into what drugs and drug makers may be in contact with the white house as a result of this i know you've been looking at remdesivir in particular would you start a course of remdesivir or any other kind of drug in advance if at this moment he would be asymptomatic?

we don't know because the white house has yet to disclose whether he is asymptomatic or symptomatic. >> reporter: yeah, andrew. dr. gottleib can probably weigh in on this given he is an md given the data, i don't think we've seen remdesivir be used as a preventive treatment however, of course, antiviral drugs are thought to work fast the earlier they are given and even in some cases have been shown to work preventively folks i'm talking with this morning, antibody drugs are being tested preventtivelily we know he has the virus, he's been diagnosed it's not preventive. earlier in the course of the disease is when you give these there's a risk in using experimental drugs that have not been tested together recommemdesivir have an approve we don't know whether you use

the drugs together, what that would look like. just to note, andrew, the breadth of the potential exposure, i was talking to a renowned epidemiologist, he noted the risk is very wide that given the timing here and what we know about the incubation period and when people become infectious, it's likely hope hicks had been infectious for a few days prior to being diagnosed. it's likely the president was. and it spreads to vice president biden, family and staff at the debate he said much of the west wing will need to be guaranteed this is something we've never seen before. >> dr. gottleib, on that question -- yeah, go ahead >> picking up on that point, i think there's a possibility they could consider remdesivir in

this circumstance. remdesivir, the indication has been extended to any hospitalized patient it's likely to be extended further to people at high risk of a bad outcome who become symptomatic of covid it would be early to introduce the drug in this setting we don't know if the president is symptomatic or not. that's a critical piece of information the white house has to disclose. that puts the president on a different trajectory if he's symptomatic. it's reasonable to consider using that drug even though it would be an off label use of the drug as meg said, antivirals are used early in the course of the disease, there seems to be a theoretical basis of why it works. antibodies, that's too early if he becomes more ill, then they might consider that you wouldn't want to introduce that right now.

>> doctor, i want to bring eamon in quickly we have some news about vice president pence. vice president biden and then mrs. pence as well, right? >> yeah, that's right, joe what we're hearing from the vice president's office is in fact the vice president has been tested this morning and has tested negative. here's the tweet from devon o'malley as has been routine for months, vice president pence is tested every day and this morning vice president pence and the second lady have been tested. he remains in good health and wishes the president and the first lady well. which high officials have been infected clearly the vice president's office saying he has a negative test that's good and encouraging

news the other high ranking official that we'll wait for here is the former vice president, joe biden, who was obviously in close quarters with the president earlier this week at that debate stage on tuesday night. we have not heard yet from the biden campaign what their plans are, statement, or any testing statement with vice president biden. we'll wait for that piece of information. good news on the part of the vice president, mike pence back over to you. >> dr. gottleib, wanted to get your thoughts on testing in this circumstance we're getting negative test results which is a positive, excuse the pun, development. we have heard instances where people have come in contact with people who have been covid positive, a day or two after they don't test positive they test negative and several days

later they test positive what would be the quarantine situation with which you would be prescribing people who have come in contact with the president even if they were to test negative? >> right the last time the vice president might have been in contact with the president is monday. it's up to 14 tasdays the median is 7 days we also would want to understand the test that was used to screen the vice president, how sensitive was it as i said at the beginning of the show, the white house has been using the abbott i.d. now as a screening tool to visitors to the white house and the staff. it's a good test in the hands of a technician it's not the best test and appropriate fit for the purpose for which they're using it

we've talked many times on this show about this fact and also introducing another sensitive test into the white house. so i think that the white house is going to need to rethink the technology that they're using as a screening tool to create a bubble around the president. clearly it appears based on what we know that some one or more people were able to get through that screening process >> okay. dr. gottleib, we appreciate it >> eah >> want to thank you and thank meg. >> and eamon and everybody else. all right. we're now at 8:00 and the news this morning, president trump says he and first lady melania trump have both tested positive for covid-19 the president tweeting the news shortly before 1 a.m. east coast time for the latest on the president and the first lady, let's get back to eamon javers

eamon, it's been so long since we saw you let's update everyone. >> reporter: breaking news, joe. the president announcing last night he has tested positive for covid-19 along with the first lady they're entering quarantine. that remains the plan. the white house has stream lined the schedule for today the only thing now officially remaining on the president's schedule is a call he had with vulnerable seniors later today that event is still on the president in that category of vulnerable seniors. we'll see what he has to say later on take a look at the time line of events we understand how intensive of an effort this contact tracing effort is going to be to figure out which officials have been infected here or exposed starting on saturday with the

supreme court nominee ceremony and rally in pennsylvania, the president came in contact with a lot of people at those events. on saturday he held a rally and on monday he had the photo op with lordstown motors. he had a presser on the covid testing process on monday and tuesday was the presidential debate where they were not wearing masks. all of these events involving some sort of travel here wednesday he had a fund-raiser in minnesota, rally in minnesota. yesterday he had a roundtable and fund-raiser with supporters in new jersey. the president has been out in the country traveling extensively throughout the entire time line not exactly clear where he got this infection, when it happened. the news first came to us last night that hope hicks, his close campaign aide, tested positive that started off the series and events and revelations in which

the president has tested positive we've been tracking who hope hicks has been seen in proximity to in the past week or so. more than 20 officials, guys hope hicks herself, who is also now unfortunately tested positive, has been in contact with just about all of the key figures inside the trump administration recently in terms of travel so that is a long list of people who now will have to be contact traced, tested and interviewed to be contact traced you get a sense of the scale of the effort good news within the past couple of minutes we do have that tweet from devon o'malley who is the vice president's press secretary. devon o'malley saying the vice president was tested this morning, has tested negative along with his wife for covid-19 that is good news in terms of the vice president personally, his family, the white house staff and of course the country in terms of continuity of government issues.

that indicates at least for now the vice president does not seem to be at risk here for covid-19. as you were just discussing with dr. scott gottleib, the question is given the amount of expoise su -- exposure here, how many other officials around the president will test positive how will the president ride this out? all the details still to come. back to you. >> one question before you go. before the president and white house disclosed he and the first lady were positive, do we know how many tests or what kind of tests were sed i ask the question simply because we've had this conversation with dr. scott gottleib so often about how the abbott tests have in certain cases been wrong sometimes they've come back with false positives, come back with false negatives. i wonder what we know about the efforts that have been underway and how accurate the information we have now even is where you

know, we don't know, andrew. that's a good point. the white house has not told us how often or when the president is tested, exactly what tests they're using, procedures, anything like that at this point we don't know that the president was on the hannity show on fox last night after this report that hope hicks had tested positive and the president at that point seemed not to be aware of whether or not he was positive. he clearly seemed as if he had a test, as if he was about to go into quarantine. he raised the possibility he might be positive last night at some point yesterday we can surmise the white house became aware this was a concern and began a testing process. we don't have any of the details of how that happened >> all right great. thank you. thanks, eamon.

we will be back. it's a developing story, as they say thanks a lot, melissa. let's talk about how the markets are reacting to this news cnbc market commentator mike santoli. the worst levels of the session with the dow looking to open lower by 400 points. what's your reaction to how the markets are taking this? >> you know, a quick reflex of just kind of take some off the table and this scrambles some possibilities about the election or any other way where we sit, the s&p up off 55 points 1.5% take a look at the equity indexes overnight. you had the twitch lower presumably the trading systems have been loaded with a possibility of a headline like this for six or seven months that was the tweet with the news that the president and first lady were infected

then it chops around sideways. what this might mean keep in mind the lows in the s&p futures overnight not too far from the lows overnight. retreat to the lowest end. the treasury market. the treasuries right now we're in a very narrow band. not that much happening in terms of gold. the kind of path the dollar here. it looks like the spike and the center of the context.

it's right here. we're up 5% in the major indexes. the reaction and it's not necessarily there with intense new urgency. in a very. >> okay. meantime, we have some breaking news on tesla. we have more of that.

>> tesla specific. >> the markets look like they're going to open this morning >> i think it's much more broadly. melissa knows this we've had the clever ris in the afternoon during "fast money." you'll see a bit of a pop when they exceed delivery estimates we're not seeing much of a reaction. >> we had ylaelon musk back on there were high level deliveries and the shareholder meeting along with battery day not entirely surprised given a 10% runup and the

broader markets lower is a big move. >> i agree with you, melissa that's why i'm not surprised >> okoroay phil, appreciate that. maryland senator ben car din is going to join us on what the president's covid-19 diagnosis could mean for stimulus talks in washington the september jobs report. a print of plus 800,000. so much more coming up right here on "squawk. we are back right after this flexshares may look simple on the outside. but inside every etf... there are untold hours of careful construction... infinite "what ifs?" and contingency plans. creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. tap untapped potential. and strengthen confidence in you. flexshares. powered by over a century of investment expertise before investing consider the fund's investment objectives,

risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. breaking news overnight. president trump says he and first lady melania trump have contracted the coronavirus in a tweet sent shortly before 1 a.m. eastern time the president said tonight flotus and i tested positive for covid-19. we will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately we will get through this together hours earlier the white house said top presidential aide hope

hicks had tested positive for the virus. she traveled with the president this week. the white house physician said the president is expected to continue carrying out his duties without disruption he said both trump and the first lady are wellat this time and both plan to remain in the white house as they recover. we heard from eamon, at this point vice president pence and the second lady have tested negative as we pointed out need to be continuing to be tested obviously because that may not be conclusive. >> it may not be given that they both tested positive from a number of the doctors that have been sending me notes -- >> both tested negative. both tested negative. >> for vice president, yes i thought you meant the president. >> we just did the futures react to the news that vice president

pence and the second lady have tested negative. we saw the dow futures pare the losses by 50 or 60 points. s&p gaining back 5 we'll continue to monitor this. want to bring in maryland democratic senator ben cardin talk to him about this news, as well as the state of stimulus news in washington, the house passing a $2.2 trillion bill it's considered unlikely it will pass in the senate senator cardin, thank you. your reaction that the president and first lady tested positive for the coronavirus? >> first, it's good to be with you. it shows how dangerous this virus is how urgent it is to take up the covid package. would he have to get the virus under control and we need to have all of the tools to get it done the house's action showed that the democrats in the house are willing to compromise.

it's critically important that we get together and pass this. it deals with a lot of the economic issues. vulnerable families, those that don't have jobs schools opening safely i hate to be crass about an issue when the president and first lady have contracted this. we wish them so very well, but i'm curious how this changes the dynamic, if it does at all. >> well, the dynamic very much depends on mitch mcconnell bringing it to the floor and getting serious about negotiating.

i think secretary mnuchin and pelosi are working hard. let's get the bill to the floor and start dealing with a bill that can deal with the virus it underscores how dangerous it is no one's immune from the virus hopefully it will get us back at attention on covid-19 where people want us to be. >> senator, given that you're a democrat, i'm curious how you think that the biden campaign can and should discuss this issue, approachthis issue, wit what level of sensitivity we will see them describe this issue. it becomes a bit of a hot potato and a challenge in terms of how to approach it what would you recommend >> clearly covid-19 is on the minds of the people of this nation i thought the vice president laying out his plan on how to deal with covid-19, the specific

proposals he would follow in order to get the virus under control, mistakes made by the trump administration, i think that's what the american people want to hear i come back to the united states senate this week we're expected to take up district court judges for confirmation we need to take up covid-19. i hope the vice president will point out that this nation wants the united states senate to concentrate as the house did this week on covid-19. let's get this virus under control. we still are in the first wave. >> senator, does this change the calculus at all for the hearings for the supreme court nomination >> you know, i would hope so the american people do not want us to bring up this nomination at this time they do believe the next president should make this appointment. that's the tradition of the senate, fairness they want us dealing with covid-19 and here we are going to be coming back together again at risk because we are larger

groups than should be gathering together at risk to take up judges rather than taking up covid-19 yes, i do think it points out that the focus of our nation needs to be on getting the virus under control, getting people well, getting businesses open, getting schools open, providing the tools we need to keep people safe and restore our economy that's where they want our attention, not on the nomination. >> i appreciate the view you have can you speak to how this changes the mind of somebody, if at all, like senator mitch mcconnell. >> mitch mcconnell is focused on november 3rd i think as more and more people in the nation are demanding that the senate take up covid-19, more and more people say, look, it's a matter of fairness, you should listen to us. the next president should be making this appointment to the

supreme court, as that public opinion mushrooms, we're hoping that it will change the calculus of senator mcconnell and he'll realize he better take action that the people want rather than jamming the power of the senate on this nomination because it will have repercussions on november 3rd. >> senator cardin, we appreciate your thoughts. >> thank you. the september jobs report. we have an expert panel waiting to dissect the number and offer analysis futures meantime off the premarket session lows dow looking to open lower. here are some of the biggest e-rkprmaet laggards. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc this is decision tech. find a stock based on your interests

or what's trending. get real-time insights in your customized view of the market. it's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions. fidelity. to a world that must keep turning. the world can't stop, so neither can we. because the things we make, help make the world go round. they make it cleaner, healthier, and more connected. it's what we build that keeps things moving forward. so with every turn, we'll keep building a world that works.

just a couple minutes away from the government's september jobs report. let's welcome our jobs panel kate moore, head of thematic strategy for the global allocation team at black rock. jason furmer and michael strain

at the american enterprise institute policy director, lisa cook, assistant professor of economics at michigan state and our own steve liesman and rick santelli we'll just go across the board kate, what are you expecting today? a lot of other news but at least momentarily, let's talk about the jobs report. where are you? >> yeah, look, i think we're going to have a continuation of improvement in the labor market. a million new jobs created in september. unemployment rate to fall at below 8% this will be a good sign the big challenge is 2021 and onward this will be a good print. i don't think the market will be as focused on it and as fiscal and what's happening with the president. it will be confirmation that we are on the road to recovery.

>> furman, i see you everywhere. i saw you yesterday. i saw you yesterday. i don't even know -- so i know what you're about ready to say from appearing on that other -- is that other network even news though in your view? i can't believe you said yes to them anyway, what are you expecting today? >> i should have known that you watched fox news, joe. you know, i think we're in an economy right now that has a positive first derivative and a negative second derivative each month we're improving, each month the numbers are getting better but the pace of that improvement is slowing we saw that yesterday in the consumer spending data for the month of august. i think we're going to see that today in jobs. that puts the number at something like 1 million by any standard that would be a phenomenal number except for the fact we lost so many millions of

jobs our progress in closing the hole is slowing in part because stimulus went away it will be a bit of a tougher year ahead of us than the last couple of years have been. >> jason, hold on. breaking news from eamon javers. he's back with us. eamon? >> reporter: that's right. treasury secretary mnuchin has tested negative, a tweet from monica crowley she's a key aide as part of regular protocol, secretary mnuchin has tested daily and he tested negative this morning and will continue to be tested daily that answers another big question in terms of how far this thing has spread within the west wing and within the administration of course because mnuchin who often is seen wearing a mask in his rovings around the capitol has been meeting with nancy

pelosi and shuttling back and forth between the administration and congress, there had been question about whether he could have been a vector for that to get to capitol hill. apparently now not mnuchin saying he is negative for covid-19. >> do we know what the protocol is going to be for people who have come in contact with the president who do test negative, whether they still will be guaranteed for some number of days given in large part, as we've heard from dr. scott gottleib and so many others, that a negative test at least within a day or two of coming in contact with somebody that is positive can turn out to be positive as well >> reporter: yeah. you know, that's a good question, andrew i've been pressing white house officials since about 1 a.m. in terms of whether they're going to have any change in protocol at the white house no information on that has been forthcoming. we don't know at this point what they're going to do. the west wing is a tight space, right? it was built a long time ago

the hallways are narrow. despite what you might have seen on tv, the offices are small everybody is packed into fairly small quarters the close staff rides with the president on marine one which is a small space. they're on air force one together in enclosed space as well this is a tough environment to prevent the spread of covid-19 but we don't know what updates they'll put in place. >> thanks, eamon we'll get back to the jobs report jason, it's one thing to channel surf but it's like you're a missionary were you finished talking? >> i love all the positive feedback i get on twitter. finished very relieved to hear that about the treasury secretary. >> that is good. i think i saw something that secretary pompeo as well, we'll wait for eamon to confirm that

michael, what are you looking for on the report today? >> looking for a gain of a million, maybe 1.1 million i think we still are recovering. still adding jobs. i agree with jason, the pace of that has slowed. it will be interesting to see how much the pace of that has slowed given the second wave we were able to in terms of the number of cases bent that down as more data comes in, including this morning, we'll be able to see how big of a hit that took to the economy good news as we go onto the fall if people have figured out through mask wearing and being prudent in terms of personal interactions, through handwashing and other things have figured out how to engage in the business of daily life to a much larger extent in the face of covid than they were able to do in march or april, then if we

do have nother wave -- >> michael, we just wanted to talk to everyone before they were going to do that. lisa, i apologize. steve, we're going to come back to you in a second rick santelli, do you have a number that you can give us, rick it's coming. got two seconds. >> 7.7 on the unemployment rate. i think we're going to be close to a million and a half jobs. >> lisa, i'll come to you first. steve, what is it? >> looking for the number here, joe. give me one second here. sorry, joe it's not up. oh, there it is. no sorry. i do not have it >> all right keep looking >> 661,000 661,000. that's just the number i have in front of me here i don't see it on the bls website here private sector jobs 877,000.

so we're probably lost a lot of the government jobs with an expectation we would lose the census jobs. that's well below the consensus. let's see what happened to august revised up to 1.489 million. i have the you 6 at 12.8 versus 4.2. i'm going to throw it back to you, joe maybe some guys there have the data more quickly than i do. there it is. >> we ran out of time. what number were you looking for? just at first plush how does this number sound to you >> this seems consistent with what i was thinking in terms of lower unemployment rate overall. what i haven't seen yet and would like to see is whether the black/white gap in unemployment continues to diverge i think that's a really bad sign and i would hope that it would not diverge more, but that's a

trend that we've been seeing and that would be important if those gains were fairly solid before the pandemic. >> rick, further comments now that we've seen the number you didn't get to talk much either before. >> yeah, i'll tell you what. it's a very disappointing number to me. i like the unemployment number dropping on the job front, 661,000 is on the light side the markets aren't going to like that i think the participation rate at 61.4 also fell back from 61.7 it really isn't a spectacular report here, joe i would think that interest rates especially on the long end, you want to pay close attention to whether 30 year bonds get back under 140, which has been rare as of late, especially coming off basically one month high yields on a year to date basis. i would like to wish the president of the united states

and first lady a speedy recovery we all know the president has his own views on covid and mask wearing but at the end of the day we all want him and the first lady to get better as soon as possible. >> yes, definitely steve, you're looking very studious right now do you have any nuggets. >> studious? >> yeah. >> i apologize for that. i was not up on the bls website when i went there. i took what i could off the wires. just real quickly, where there were jobs. leisure and hospitality, 318,000. health care up 710,000 retail up 142,000. and we did, indeed, have a big decline in government workers as expected i can't see from the table i'm looking at right now that it was, indeed, census workers, but i can toll you this, local government education down 231,000. i think that's some combination of reducing their work force for

that but also maybe we're starting to see some of the cutbacks feared at the local and state level. i'll leave it there except the unemployment rate did decline to 7.t 7.9% the trouble with this, joe, is not september being weak but what it means for october. i think that's something the market is going to have to grapple with with the announcements that came from, for example, disney and some of the other companies out there. energy companies and the waning effect on the economy, whether that will have an impact on the month of october. >> airlines and everything else. kate now that you've seen the number, what do you think? >> yeah, look, i'm going to kind of agree and say this is a slightly disappointing number.

we were looking for something closer to a million but as, you know, jason and others have pointed out, we're talking about, you know, second derivative that's looking a little bit negative. we know that the pace of recovery in the labor market was going to slow in the fall after the snap back we had following the total shutdown in the beginning part of this year. but the big thing i'm worried about is whether or not companies are making decisions today about their labor force given the last six months of experience in the pandemic by that i mean they're asking themselves, do we need as many people we have less visibility into the future and what does this do overall to their margins what does it do to the consumer and consumption. the 2021 question is the big one. overall the slowdown in terms of retail hiring and transport, places where we didn't see a big snap back is not terribly surprising but i think that the

balance in the fourth quarter will be tough to regain momentum against a slowing recovery and higher incidents of covid. >> jason, i -- this is weird this is weird. do you know what the last -- the number of unemployment rate was on the last jobs number before the 2012 election? it was 7.9 that's weird, isn't it go ahead >> round it to 8 i didn't remember the first decimal. you know, this is definitely relative to the expectation disappointing. it's not just that the headline number came in below what we thought. if you look, the number of people on temporary layoff in the month of september fell by 1.5 million. so you had people brought back to their job but then the number of people who are unemployed for reasons other than temporary

layoff actually went up in the month of september so some underlying sense the labor market is now in a more challenging place for recovery another thing, the participation rate falling is surprising when unemployment insurance benefits, the extra $600 a week expired at the end of july. we're two months in to people getting 50% of their wages versus 150%. that was supposed to cause a labor supply increase. you're not seeing any large labor supply effect in the data. while i think we should go 600 to 400 -- >> jason >> yeah. >> just real quick i do want to point out that last month you had this huge surge in the labor force that people thought was a little bit beyond the pale of 968,000. today you had a falloff at 695,000. as you know probably more than anybody on this panel.

the household survey is very, very volatile. i would take those two together. overall people are in a modest way. i wouldn't take that at face value. i would average it. >> i agree with that, steve. if you look the labor force participation rate is the same, 61.4 in july, that's what it was in september so you saw no increase from july to september. >> i wanted to point that out. >> normally as the unemployment rate falls you would expect the participation rate to rise it's very surprising >> i'll throw this back to joe >> you may have people fired, furloughed, brought back on,

fired, furloughed, maybe even a second time brought back in. we've heard stories about businesses that opened, closed, reopened, there's a lot of interesting dynamics going on. >> i want to get michael -- >> dynamics are huge 4.6 billion people went from work to unemployed that was a small positive. >> michael, do you have anything >> yeah. the household survey is in some ways even more disappointing i agree completely with steve that you want to take the higher wage but if you look at the two you get a number of jobs even lower. i think this speaks to the need for additional eke noom mick recovery you saw a rapid recovery in may and june and a big part of what was driving that was the c.a.r.e.s. act, $1.8 trillion

that was passed in late march. it wasn't all that was driving it we would still be driving out of the hole if it wasn't part of it as those permissions have expired not just in up employment benefits, the paycheck protection, direct payments for households. what we are seeing is the recovery continue but the recovery kind of rapidly converge i converging towards a normal recovery what we need is an abnormal, extraordinarily rapid. >> i know melissa wants in liesman, you were nodding. you want to add something and then melissa can get in? >> yes, i do i want to echo what they were saying we have evidence that we'll have a continuous churn in the labor market what we know from the job quality index is over 65% of people are expecting from their

employers to be laid off they're already laid off or they have been told that they will be laid off we have the indirect information from employers to employees. so i think we're going to see this churn speed up. it certainly depends on what kind of package becomes available. i still don't think there's enough in what the administration is offering for state and local governments. that's where we see the layoffs coming from. so i think there has to be this rachetting up of aide coming quickly. >> staab looking open. >> there is a psychological component that ends up impacting businesses in the case of spending or attitudes towards

expanding their work force. >> it's not bringing back the jobs as quickly as they might have businesses maybe deciding not to reopen for the second or third time and house holds deciding not to do as much seeing how long this is going for. >> you put your finger on an issue economists talk about. it's not psychological, it's real it's one of the major reason why is they advocate for stimulus up

front. it's the idea of employees being separated from employment. get being mepeople back to works expected to be a remedy for a shorter turn and deep recision you bring people back to work. you don't allow skills to erode. we're seeing people, so to speak, or businesses give up the ghost. deciding, hey, i can't make it anymore. not without -- >> steve, one of the things that might be even more important for the future is "the new york times" is reporting that the president's virus case is mild so far but there are symptoms. cold-like symptoms and that may have something to do as well but that's being reported and we know there's a difference. it's hard to parse asymptomatic is one thing. mild symptoms is another i think maybe there is a difference between totally

asymptomatic and having flu-like or cold-like symptoms. sorry, steve back to you. >> no, i was done there, joe i'll throw it back to you. i'm sure jason has some thoughts on this issue. just real quickly, i think what the airlines did is to the last pond minute. >> jason, you got out of the pod at least you're looking lean and mean have you used the covid to buff up you've lost quite a bit of weight >> you're very kind, joe i'm one of the people that got healthier in this period. >> i can see that. >> i've gained some weight. >> i know. it looked like you transferred

it over to michael that's not really -- >> the refrigerator is really close to me all day now. >> okay. anyway, we could use a laugh and good news occasionally, jason. you know, not for nothing, but you look awesome you look good. anyone really want to -- any closing thoughts anyone has? rick, lisa, kate, michael, steve? >> just one thing -- >> well, joe -- >> i just have one thing to add. >> there is a psychological aspect on both sides many states are handling this different than other states. i think in the big analysis, there's a certain amount of fear associated with covid, rightly so but i think psychologically different areas of the country and the coverage and their leadership have ramped that up a bit. that's a psychological disadvantage for recovery. >> bad for the psychology is if we get a negative number in the next report or in the report

after that, which is why congress needs to take its duty very seriously to get an additional economic recovery package passed as soon as possible if you want to talk about the psychology, 600,000 is a big number if we see negative 400,000, that will be -- >> lisa, that's something you should never do, say anybody have something to say on a zoom meeting. >> i'll say one thing in terms of psychology. this is for communities, businesses, households 60% of small businesses that advertise on yelp are permanently closing, have reported being permanently closed that has a psychological help.

this is a very visible sign. aid to these small businesses will be critical psychologically at least if not in fact. >> i think we have more time kate steve, that's nice i see your finger. >> joe, i've got something to say. >> okay. two facts, lisa asked earlier about the black unemployment rate black and hispanic unemployment rate show little change over the month. 12.1% for african-americans, 10.2% for hispanics while the white unemployment rate looks like it declined in september to 7.4% minorities take this hit harder than others. and finally just one more fact which is that the bls saying the unemployment rate would have been 0.4% higher if not for this continuing problem which is the classification of workers. >> okay. mike was -- that was you, rick

kate >> it was you, joe, come on. >> it was me but i do it whenever i hear rick. >> it was you. >> they usually close my mike. kate, what do you want to say? >> i was going to continue on with a comment that lisa was making we've been talking about for the last couple of months on payroll fridays the disconnect between what's been happening in the equity market, what's been happening on the ground particularly for small and medium sized businesses. i think this weaker report will close that gap in terms of the sentiment. there has been a thinking from a lot of investors a lot of the large cap, megacap are doing very well. even in a top economic period but if we are starting to get slightly weaker data and initial stimulus, there's concern around volatility going into year end, you could see choppiness in the

equity market. we would be opportunistic buying names we think can produce strong returns in 2021 but we do recognize this is going to be a more challenging trading period in the next few weeks. >> great thanks to our jobs panel kate, look at you. jason, man i'm going to start today i'm going to start today, jason. i'm going to start today. >> maybe you should watch fox news less. >> really? at least i'm not on there. at least i don't actually go on there and enable those types, furman anyway, i'm kidding. michael and lisa, thank you and liesman, thank you rick santelli, thank you eamon. we'll get back to eamon javers that is additional news reference switching gears back, eamon. asymptomatic versus symptomatic.

it looks like there are cold-like symptoms so far for the president. >> reporter: yeah. a couple of breaking news items even since you talked about that on the air we now have a tweet from joe biden, the big question here is how will the biden campaign react. joe biden saying jill and i send our thoughts to our thoughts to president trump and first lady melania trump for a swift recovery we will continue to pray for the health and safety of the president and his family no mention there of the former vice president's own virus status or testing situation, that is something that we will be looking closely for in the hours to come from the vice president's team meanwhile, i've been texting with a person familiar who gives me this information about treasury secretary mnuchin, saying the secretary has spoken to the white house medical office and has been advised that based on his very limited contact with the president that he does not feel the need to quarantine of course, he will continue to be tested daily, i am told,

about treasury secretary mnuchin. so mnuchin not entering quarantine at this point according to this person familiar based on his limited contact with folks inside the west wing. now to that story from "the new york times" that you were talking about, "the new york times" is reporting that there are some symptoms here that are exhibiting themselves when it comes to the president of the united states. saying that these symptoms are mild, according to the "new york times," the president has had what one person described as cold-like symptoms, the "times" reports and saying that at his fundraiser in bedminster, new jersey, on thursday he seemed lethargic. one person says he fell asleep on air force one on the way back from a rally in minnesota on wednesday night. white house officials said that as of thurts night they're still discussing the treatment plan. all this have according to the "new york times," maggie haberman, so a possible national address or videotaped statement from the president is also under discussion here, joe so the president apparently now according to the "new york times" is experiencing some

symptoms and that answers another question we had when we got that note from the white house physician's office at about 1:00 a.m. this morning, noting that the president and the first lady are doing well, quote/unquote, but not specifying whether the president was symptomatic or asymptomatic, now according to the "new york times" we know that the president is symptomatic, has seemed lethargic, has been exhibiting some signs of having an active case here of coronavirus. no indication on just what the treatment plan will be and what the plans are going forward but he does still have at least one event on his public schedule at least as of now for later on today. we will see if he's able to make that appointment, guys back over to you >> all right >> eamon, thank you for that i want to get straight over to cnbc's headquarters right now where jim cramer joins us. there is so much to talk to you about, jim, obviously the jobs numbers, but let's walk through the implications for the market of what we're hearing right now about president trump being symptomatic. apparently now it sounds like he has been symptomatic perhaps for

more than 24 hours, given that -- and was taking -- was taking public meetings during that period. how do you see this playing out in terms of the politics of it, in terms of the stimulus that's on the table, in terms of the supreme court? put it all in perspective for us. >> sure. first we want to wish the president and first lady well. i know that we have seen many people have recovery fast, some people obviously hospitalized and the situations are much better, but he is at an at-risk ainge. i'm not saying this is much ado about nothing, i'm saying people should have a buy list ready i don't think this is going to change things that much, i don't think it's going to change things with the stimulus unless senator mcconnell who i think has got all the cards does something. i think the senate is convinced, the republican senators, 20 of them, that we have a v-shaped recovery so why are we wasting any money. i think obviously if you look at the employment report you will see that, i mean, there is a

staggering number of people who are losing their jobs permanently because the companies are closing. it was always the idea of the secretary that there should be insurance against that 19.4 million people reported unable to work but i don't think the two can be conflated. i just don't think that and i do believe the president will be able to do some zoom and will be surprised at how well the zoom does >> jim, you know, we are looking at a number of the travel stocks get hit particularly hard. i think on the assumption that there is a view that this is going to make this real for certain americans and maybe would reduce their willingness to travel, reduce their willingness to spend money do you buy that argument >> not one bit i think only 19 people since the period that covid has started according to medical sources and boeing have contracted covid from flying in planes. and that's because people wear masks. the president has been quite i'd say cynical about mask wearing, i think that this is going to increase mask wearing, which

will, therefore, further the tamping of the virus not unlike southeast asia. so i don't want to say that this is -- this sad event is good news for america, but, you know, if you wear masks as people do when they are on planes, it works. 19 people have covid after millions of people have flown? documented by medical sources. why? they wear masks on planes. and if you wear a mask, you're protected. >> jim, it's an important point, we raised it earlier, that in a very -- it may be an unconventional thought but if there is a positive from this situation perhaps more americans will wear masks and we appreciate your perspective. >> the primary person who has stood in the way of this being tamped is the president of the united states because he doesn't wear a mask and he makes fun of the vice president for wearing a mask a big mask maybe we have to rethink that. maybe the tennessee titans have to rethink that, maybe the

country has to rethink that. yes, maybe something good could come of it, which is that the -- every scientist, every epidemiologist, every person who understands aerosol all agree that masks are the only hope we really have, particularly indoors. so maybe that changes. maybe the notion that you're somehow not tough enough to wear a mask goes away >> jim, we appreciate it and you're 100% right. so thank you. >> thank you. >> we will see you in just a few minutes on "squawk on the street." meantime, i want to send it back to melissa whose got, i believe, dr. scott gottlieb waiting for us. >> he is on the in us liin newse right now. we want to get your thoughts that the president is displaying some symptoms, how should we change our view of the trajectory of this disease progression given what we know if this report is true >> obviously that's more concerning if he was asymptomatic he would

only need to quarantine for ten days, now that he's symptomatic, you know, the length of time in which he would need to quarantine and also his clinical course is obviously much different. there's also a possibility here that -- i know there's been some reporting that perhaps hope hicks had introduced the infection or at least some implication of that based on the fact that she was positive first. i think we have to look at the possibility that given that the incubation period is five days, for two people to get sick within a day or two to each other it seems to be quick it's not impossible, but it suggests that there could be a simpler explanation which is that they each had a shared exposure, either someone within the white house bubble, someone they might have been exposed to on the road, unclear right now this is obviously speculation, but just looking at the timeline that we've seen put out so far i think we need to at least entertain that possibility. >> does this change the treatment plan, dr. gottlieb, for the president? does this change the prognosis

for the president? >> it certainly changes the prognosis. you know, if he was asymptomatic obviously his recovery would be more clear now that he's symptomatic we don't know which way the infection is going to turn this starts off as milder symptoms, it progresses pretty rapidly and a lot of patients who are going to have a bad outcome from it, i think it does change how they think about treating him now that he's potentially symptomatic and it's based on reporting from "the new york times," i trust the source, but it hasn't been confirmed by the white house, but assuming that the reporting is accurate, i think it does raise the possibility that they would want to start some of the drugs that are available that are being used in symptomatic patients we talked earlier about remdesivir, that would be the most obvious, that's being used pretty widely in symptomatic patients people who are more sick than what the president appears to be right now, but i don't think it would be reasonable to introduce that earlier in the setting of the president of the united states. >> right doctor, real quick, to the

degree that the reports are accurate that it sounds like he may have been symptomatic for more than the past 24 hours and did participate in public meetings, public settings, what is the risk to those around him? >> high. so the period in which you are most contagious is about 24 hours before the onset of symptoms so if he's been symptomatic for, let's say, 48 hours and we don't know right now, but let's just assume he's been symptomatic for 48 hours, you would want to go back at least a couple of days from the point at which he had the onset of symptoms and look at that period of time because that could be the period of time in which he was most contagious the typical period of time when you're most contagious with this virus is right before symptom onset so that puts you back in a time frame of, you know, sort of the monday/tuesday type of time frame assuming that symptoms began maybe in the wednesday/thursday time frame. we don't really know that, that's "the new york times" reporting thus far so you want to look at this whole week, maybe even going back into the weekend as the

period when he could have been very symptomatic. >> all right dr. gottlieb, thank you for being there for us all morning long futures right now down 427 points, melissa, thank you for being here this morning. >> pleasure. >> and, andrew, i mean, monday is a long way off. monday is a long way off and we wish the president well and hope for good outcomes here make sure you join us next week. "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. dow futures down 430 as markets react to the president's diagnosis. reportedly experiencing some mild symptoms. pence and mnuchin test negative this morning, we are awaiting word on biden's test the jobs number is a miss at 661,000 and these stimulus talks remain in limbo after the house approves heroes light by party lines last night. >> i think that we