what else he got, regardless of who what outcome he has, it is hard to say what extent that any of those contributed i think from the public data that regeneron and lilly have reported the -- the -- seems to be reasonably well tolerated as well so together, you know, with -- >> dr. scangos -- >> go ahead, i'm sorry. >> we're at the end of the show. i'm so sorry thank you for being with us and we look forward to hearing about your data as you get it. thank you. >> meg, thank you for bringing us that interview. kelly, thank you for hanging out with us. join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right now. good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber futures are solid after the best day for the s&p in nearly a month. watching the president's return home, pelosi, mnuchin, talks continue 30-year yield at a five-month high road map begins with the president, don't be afraid, he

says, comparing xoe ce ining cou once again as the death toll crosses 2 10,000 >> the white house is blocking new fda vaccine guidelines for the coronavirus and the eu is putting the pfizer covid vaccine on a fast track. shares of pfizer and bioand tech are moving higher ahead of the bell stimulus talks, maybe we're stalled again. they're set to talk by phone again today. but well, who knows at this point. hard to say. i wouldn't even try to venture a guess as to whether they make progress >> they did talk for an hour on the phone yesterday. pelosi told democratic leaders today that talks are going slowly. >> right well, look, gary kelly is one of the greatest executives that i have ever met. and he was on "squawk" and he is actually doing some short-term furlough, get people back. when he's doing it, you go

ta action. gary is one of the foremost -- his record is -- the whole airline record to never lay people off i think that's a clarion call to washingt washington if gary has to do layoffs, there are others that do too i thought that was a seminole interview, very important and both sides should listen to what he had to say. >> i'm sure they're going to get right on it, jim that's it. now it is going to happen. >> don't be so cynical >> really? i wasn't born that way >> no, i just think if you're speaker pelosi or you're secretary mnuchin, you see, let's take it the other way. you see the unemployment number is going to go up pretty big and nobody wants that. i mean, i think in your heart you don't want it. and i just was shocked to here how much they're losing. it just -- no comeback in airlines even though only 19 people have gotten covid since this thing started. people wear masks. but the president, you had to a major anti-mask initiative going.

>> well, jim, tsa screened 900,000 people on sunday that was the third time since the april low where we are had 900,000 people on a single day traffic patterns aren't good but they aren't getting dramatically worse >> right and, you know, i'm encouraged by that, but, again, i come back to the idea that even if things get better, and they're adding routes at southwest, even if things get better, i don't know. the losses are so incredible that they have to take a meat ax to their own people. i think you'll think maybe that was smart, but i think if you're an american with a heart, which i think is something, you know, you're not the tin man over there, it is really discouraging to hear about these layoffs and the layoffs need -- they need something from washington. it is not their fault. >> it is not their fault they need something from washington they have for some time. and any travel-related industry or really any industry that is

still involved, somebody walking in a door to do -- to create business, is still under stress. but, jim, we have been having the same conversation for months that house bill was passed in may. >> look, there is -- there is a lot of discord, obviously. and i often think that the talks are not between speaker pelosi and secretary mnuchin. there are larger issues involved, particularly from the senate yesterday, senator mcconnell, this was something on the tape about him, i looked and i said, oh, my, maybe he'll get on board and try to help get some money to the american people, but, no, it was -- prayer for the president, i think that's great, but i was absolutely shocked he's not saying anything and there is so many people who believe there is a v-shaped recovery in the get those people to see that there are, as david said, whole industries being left behind and many small

businesses i think someone has to speak for them >> yeah, the darker theory, jim, and i'm not endorsing this by any means, is that republican senators see the polling data, f fear a flip in the senate and now the calculus is why would you give an incoming democratic wave the benefit of stimulus, which would be hitting after the election at this point. >> well, i can't disagree with that i think that's a very logical, sadly, but very -- very political as opposed to the people who are going to be thrown out the ppp is long gone we're 14 million people involved in the restaurant hospitality industry, incredibly hurt. the airlines are literally out and, david, i just think if it is that political, then we're going to be sitting here talking about a very big unemployment number the next month. >> we may. we're also dealing with what has got to be one of the strangest run-ups to election in our lifetime with the president back in the white house

but nonetheless not necessarily able to get back on the trail. i think it is on certain terms, i think october 15th is scheduled for the next debate. not to mention, jim, you know, his continued comments that he might not actually honor the vote totals if he feels as though that it has been somehow tampered with. so, we have got a rocky road ahead of us to say the least as we watch the president, of course, after he returned from walter reed last night, going up to the balcony, and sort of giving a salute. >> look, i think there is a lot of different polls i'm not sure which polls -- i watched 5:38 on twitter. there are a lot of people who feel this has been a breakout move for biden what are we seeing in 2016 i learned in 2016, carl, do not milwauk make a prediction. it is too fraught. so who knows. >> it is a fool's errand >> a fool's errand, thank you. that's the right term.

>> it is there is simply no way to know and we do, even with the caveat that it is down to a few battleground states, i know you've been taking a lot of incoming on twitter regarding the president's mask off yesterday on the truman balcony. as someone who worked so hard to advocate for masks, i wonder what you made of that moment last night >> well, we have the cdc talking about aerosol, they're owning up to aerosol the only way to stop the aerosol, i don't want to say stop, to try to stop, is with a mask we don't have any other thing. you're inside, it is hard to social distance, i'm closing my restaurants. just closing them. one reason i don't like the restaurants is frankly unless you get the table so far apart, i think the air flow is such that you need what is going on at wynn's casino, the cdc is saying, basically, look, you're pretty out there and don't have any defense against the aerosol. the only defense we have are the

two aerosol professors in the country is the mask. but the president seems so proud about getting rid of the mask, that there is -- suddenly it is about pride. and then when you write -- a mask competition, as american citizen, i want to get involved. 15 to 24-year-old, and i feel like, well, the president has killed our hope. but at least the rest of the world, because it is international competition, doesn't feel like the president of the united states no embarrassment of a mask, david. it is not embarrassing. >> it is not not at all now the aerosolization, the cdc, listen, their track record throughout the pandemic is not particularly great as we all know they did say poorly ventilated and, you know, it is not typical, but it can happen beyond six feet, in a poorly ventilated space with somebody who is potentially a super spreader or has a lot of volume

of virus that it can happen. >> but the president wants to have football -- does he want the stands packed? yesterday, a painful experience, the pats are playing kansas city, the kansas city fans are incredibly loud, but it was all phony, i mean, there is a lot of americans who are genuinely worried about getting covid. now the president says, i know that 50% of the people will hate what i'm about to say, the president said we have the doctors and we have the science, stop focusing on it. and in the meantime, you go to regeneron, yes, they got a -- yes, they are committed to hundreds of thousands of their cocktails, because owned by the government, they'll give it out, they have much greater demand at capacity and that's not something the president can change david, it is absolutely true that we got -- you can presume that regeneron helped the president get out soon

they want -- they need more people in the trials but you can't -- there is not a million doses. >> no. there aren't they are up to 11,000 or more. we have spent a lot of time over the last six months talking on this program about the effect of antivirals, whether they be monoclonal antibodies that have to be infused or small molecules that can be taken orally and how important they would be. and it may very well be the president's prognosis is a reflection of what may be success broadly speaking once they're available. >> yes >> they're not available now >> no. >> they are to the president. >> but nobody else unless you're in the trial and when it comes to manufacturing worldwide capacity, even if you stop pruing all other drugs, it is not enough to supply but we have been making the point, and the president's health may actually show it. that, hey, early onset if you --

we don't know, because he's on remdesivir and a steroid, but early onset, you take these antivirals, it may very much moderate the symptoms. >> do it in a second we got to go to carl, but -- and ayman, but if you can take this drug the minute you got covid you take it period. >> no doubt about that and the president last night said the vaccines were coming momentarily, not the only thing the president has talked about, more tweets this morning let's get to eamon javers. >> the president returning to the white house on marine one, walking up the steps of the balcony and ripping off his mask publicly, showing his face to the crowd there at the white house. a very president anxious to demonstrate strength here, to demonstrate he's okay, standing on his own with feet and recording some video there,

maskless, inside the white house, once he did return. striking difference, though, in tone on masks from joe biden last night remember, gentlemen biden participated in an nbc news town hall event with lester holt last night. here is what he said on mask messaging yesterday. >> what is this macho thuning, m not going to wear a mask what's the big deal here does it hurt you take care of yourself, take care of your neighbors. >> reporter: so, carl, over the next couple of hours, we hope to learn more about how the white house is going to proceed. the president returning to a white house that now physically is a hot zone for the coronavirus. the residents now has two residents who are infected with covid, the first lady and the president of the united states both of whom we are told are recovering the president expected to get an additional treatment later on today. and then they say there will be about five more days until he might be out of the woods. over in the west wing, a number

of aides have tested positive over the past couple of days they do not seem to have the outbreak under control insipd t inside the west wing right now we're waiting on testing results for a number of reporters who have been inside the west wing over the past couple of days as well all of that affects the president's ability to govern. who he's going to have access to physically, who in his circle of confidants is going to be available to him, healthwise, over the coming days, all of that, for the president to struggle with as he deals with the endgame of this election, the outbreak of the virus, also a supreme court nomination hanging in the balance a lot at stake here for the president of the united states over the coming days back over to you >> with the election four weeks from today, jim, i'm curious to know your thoughts about the president's message, which seems to indicate a willingness to continue with the relaxation of restrictions, at the same time the batman film pushed back,

regal cinemas closing, norwegian pushing sailings back a month. where are we headed? >> i think the -- there is a false construct here there is no urge to lock down. that's a straw man no one, i know, wants to lock down, other than certain blocks in new york city by de blasio, who is -- often questionable but the idea that there is either a lockdown or wide open is wrong i mean, there is risk involved you speak to the people at abbott, they'll tell you, hey, is our test perfect? no but if you are really worried about going out, you don't need to go out. why not discourage that for people who are at risk i think the president just took away the at risk issue i think it would be terrific if he said, look, at risk people, please be careful, not at risk, let's go about our business if you're in a crowded room like at the bedminster at the trump fund-raiser, you're very close

to each other. we know that one person in washington state gave more than 50 people in a choir the covid let's not minimize covid you can't get the regeneron drug and getting that steroid, and the really questionable remdesivir for its strength, then i think you're basically saying, hey, it's catch as catch can. a great friend of mine for 32 years was in the icu, was delirious, able to get out after a month and a half, great, he's back well, you know what? that's not, david, what is optimal. >> no, it is suboptimal. something you've been trying to aindividual. >> i'm losing. >> spoke to four people yesterday, in the office, that's the highest total i can remember since the pandemic began so they're trickling back at least. >> yeah. i'm looking forward to getting back to you guys, hopefully in the coming days.

we'll see how it goes. in the meantime, we'll get to a lot of sale side research. lot of sale side research. we're watching closelyyy can go♪

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rated #1 in customer satisfaction. it's your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile. 9th. yyy last night, joe biden was asked about president trump and his supporters branding him as a socialist. take a listen to how the former vice president responded

>> do i look like a socialist? what i want to do is just make sure everybody starts paying their fair share ordinary people, if you call it socialism, it suggests that 91 fortune 500 corporations don't pay a single cent in tax and they should be may be the minimal corporate tax, i call that fairness. >> that is one of the biggest legislative accomplishments of the trump presidency the corporate tax cuts what we went down to 21% i think biden's team is talking about taking it back up to 28% if i recall at least there are a lot of different tax plans out there. that's one of them was higher than that remember the days when versions, when i would report on all the companies that were looking to invert this is way back until treasury under obama just killed it, with that pfizer deal that never happened. >> yes, yes. brent saunders got us back >> managed to sell his company

finally, not to allergan, but to abbvie not to pfizer, but to abbvie. >> abbvie is having trouble -- abbvie is doing great with the franchise. botox is still elective. so it is a lot of people don't want to go to a doctor i think the dividend is fine i like the company very much my travel trust owns it. the inversions were not what we expected what i don't understand is this, if you think that biden is ahead, and you think he's going to win, then every single strategist has to cut numbers for the s&p 500. is that a day that you want to buy stocks well, i don't know i'm surprised a lot of the analysts haven't come up with an alternative view of what the earnings are going to look like under biden. that's what i want to see. i believe that you're going to be surprised at the pes and how high they are under -- if biden comes in >> so you don't think -- you don't think that cost, david

goldman's theory is legitimate, where he says the rise in taxes will be offset by lower tariffs and higher fiscal spending people are saying the 30-year today is a -- one of the best election polls we had so far. >> yesterday was kostin's day, really, really, you had all the china stocks, people in the administration, and it is really interesting. the china stocks were on fire! and what do i mean companies that have been really beholden to china, a lot of the -- a lot of the semiconductors, but almost all the heavy machinery companies. yesterday was caterpillar -- people were saying, jim, how come you hate caterpillar? i don't hate caterpillar they're back with china. china wants to have biden elected, david. >> believe that. >> yes, i do not to the point where they're going to do -- i'm not saying

that the people's republic is going to intervene in our election i'm pretty sure, i had a number of people in cybersecurity who said that's not going tohappenit 28% versus 21% does that slow the pace of buybacks >> yes but a lot of -- the supply of stock has really shrunk. the dividend boost will be lower. and if those who want incomes are going to be struggling a lot of our viewers are fixed income -- >> struggling for a-long time, given where rates are. >> it is not a change. >> .7 on the ten-year is not helping anybody. >> i'm cutting the numbers >> yeah. >> he's one of the greats. i love him i do he's very thoughtful. >> we can't wait to check in with david once again. quick break here, guys

quick break here, guys wemy name is henry. working within amazon transportation services, i really saw the challenge of climate change. we want to be sustainable, but when you have a truck covering over 300 miles, or you have flights going hundreds of miles, it's a bit more challenging. we are letting the data guide us to the best solution. it's inspiring to try to solve a problem that no one else has solved. that's super exciting.

seaworld,y pry 9f

fcky september. 1yyy the split in futures here as some of the long-term growth some of the long-term growth names get challenged perhaps by taking california for a ride. companies like uber, lyft, doordash.

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♪ ♪ "hmm's and ahh's" heard in-call. ♪ morning.6s> we'llyy yy prtg n &çpthey g

time for a mad dash. get you ready for the opening bell a few minutes from now. never a bad time to talk nvidia. not sure why you are this morning on the mad dash.

>> new analogy the prometheus and prometheus is now unbound. they're looking at -- i love this piece it is succinct nvidia's pace of innovation appears to be accelerating and execution is going to overdrive as it fin continues to expand i ecosystem and open up a much larger tam in the compute landscape. they're doing emerging artificial intelligence with the data center and for the first time, david, i read everything they had and i just decided i got to call jensen why? this is so over my head, i said, you know what, i can't get this, david. he is in a class of his own. he himself they're reinventing the data center it seems like everybody else is going to be obviated. >> people moved on from the questions about the arm deal and whether they'll get it done and what will be left in terms of the competitive landscape if they do own it and they're moving on to the fact this company keeps innovating.

>> right, if they get it, fine you can say, this is what i saw, i want a degas sea scape, i wanted a monet, it gave me a sea scape that looked like monet >> it did? >> it did. >> i thoughtda vinci, i thought you would want the mona lisa. >> it is how >> i was just thinking, jim, open hype e oppenheimer from 550 i'm not sure it is a street high, but not far. >> this is the game that analysts have been playing you have a stock that goes up and then overruns the price target bed, bath, by the way, talk about a stock that has overrun the price targets. nvidia, a lot of people, bma to 650. you go to an auction and people

get caught up. and they startbidding wildly for a stock. they say 650, 700? 700 in the back? right side, 800. 800. that's what it is like with nvidia. >> look at bed, bath $340 billion market value. becoming quickly one of the biggest companies in the country. market cap wise. >> make its move. >> not quite back to the highs little bump up there >> there are a lot of charts like that. >> that's softbank. >> yes that's the softbank option buying almost every stock -- yesterday, on -- on -- let's say i saw awe series of charts yesterday, all day, melissa had it -- i think it was a guy, i'm sorry if i'm wrong, maybe tim, whirlpool, the chart looks like a major biotech that just discovered a cure for lung cancer. these things are crazy what is going on with anything in the

home whirlpool, black and decker. you look at that that's just -- that's a washer and dryer company! i spoke to -- >> what about fedex? talk about -- look at that move. >> i see you fedex, and i raise you u.p.s. >> yeah. bring them both up >> i spoke to the ceo of whirlpool recently. >> fedex, we were talking it is over there. >> look at that. >> look at that thing. >> there is a lot of stocks like that a lot of stocks. even though, david, we're headed into an election, we're in allegedly a recession, unemployment might spike and look at this >> u.p.s. is also not as good as -- fedex up 72%. >> not as good as fedex. >> well, then, fine, david, i'll take that. >> that's my hand. >> i'm with you on a new one i'm working on ford motor. i see a turn don't smirk at me. don't you dare smirk at me, david. i was looking at ford f-150 used, these things are carrying

their value. maybe a turnup there but, you know, look, autos are on fire. used look at carvana. it is called carvana you see carvana, you have nirvana. that's what this market is about, finding the next carvana. peloton, carvana, it never stops. >> it doesn't. >> can we see the chart of carvana? it is scary. look at that >> that's a beautiful chart, jim. that's a thing of beauty. >> i find a lot of carvana and not very many oil companies. >> no. oil still uninvestable let me know when it isn't. >> how about small banks regional banks talk about dogs. holy cow not to just rant, but, carl if you're bed bath, over 20, if you're a growth stock hound, this has got to be the greatest time you had since 1998. and it is incredible given how many things are going wrong that

people just will pay up for lithium motors, lithium. if they call that thing, i don't know, detroit motors would be great, lithia is a little town in oregon where my daughter lived, so i know lithia, car max, autonation, the used car market is so hot, why? work at home and they're not going back >> well, they are going back. >> they're trickling back. >> people will eventually go back to the office we said many times, there will be a percent of the workforce that is at any one time at home. but the idea that people are going to be staying home forever is not -- you weren't saying that. >> i have pay chex on tonight. they reported a disappointing quarter, the numbers are down, but they have a work at home program and if you have a work at home program, you're not going to lag if you look at the crowd strikes of the world, talk about -- disappointing, look at crowd strike as a company that is just

at the forefront o cybersecurity for work at home these are the stocks that are just, oh, wow. carl, this doesn't -- this is once in a lifetime >> yeah. no, i know i think goldman yesterday went to 176 on crowdstrike, jim, and speaking of good looking charts, you're probably watching costco today, barclays to overweight. they're talking about pretty -- not easy comps, but doable comps. more room for margins to expand. potential for membership fee hike maybe another special dividend in the near term, all the positives that paid off over the years. >> that conference call, rich galanty, the cfo, he's fabulous, he gets the question about special dividends like he's going to announce it on the call hello. i like the fact that they're going to open a couple in china. what i really love about costco is the wide aisles and they were the first ones to say masks. they were very worried when they said, you know what, we're going

to make the people who work here and the people who customers, david, wear masks, okay? well, you know what happened they ended up gaining share. those people like to shop in a healthy environment. >> yes >> you know, david -- >> they do >> let me show you something i'll show something. look at this see this don't cry for me >> i won't you wear it everywhere except that set, i should let people know all around the building. we all do. but do you at your desk as well? >> yes. >> you do? >> if there is anyone that comes into my office, i put it on instantly. >> when you're alone in your office, you might keep it off. >> that's the one time you can do that. when you're absolutely alone you can -- you don't need a mask, right? that's not -- when you're alone -- >> but when anybody comes in your office -- >> of course i put it on when todd comes in, regina, executive producers, immediately put it on.

>> todd comes to visit you >> periodically. 7:47 typically i put the mask on is fast, it would make your head spin. i keep it here and bring item. i have respect for the other people the newness -- honeywell sports mask, i think it helps you got to get honeywell sports mask every time it is in stock, it is sold out instantly. >> i'll keep that in mind. you probably wear a flimsy one. >> i war my "squawk on the street" mask two layers has this nice little -- >> that's very good. very good. >> i wear the n 95 on the plane, and another mask on top of it in order to protect other people. i wear goggles and gloves. >> you wear goggles? >> david, some msnbc guy got it through his eyes >> you're going on a plane >> yes i know a lot of people who have worn goggles on a plane, jim it reminds me, we have this upgrade of seaworld today, credit suisse to outperform, at

13, now at 30. what do you think is behind that they're talking undervaluation, is there a sense if everybody behaves, the way you are just now describing, that we can gather in large places like that >> yes further reopening on the slate, air traffic trends as you mentioned, carl, looking better. there is an understanding renewed potential for incremental cost savings a lot of places, don't be too cynical or david will think this is cynical, a lot of companies are using covid as a way to be able to trim labor okay and when covid is beaten, you think those. will come back you put them back? >> no. a point we made a few times, you're right i heard it >> yeah. that's seaworld. >> yeah. it is not shamu. they're in the giving shamu a break. shamu saves. >> they see a way to cut their cost structure and realize that people are very productive, that they don't need as many people

as they previously thought, and there are layoffs that have taken place and i don't think you can expect those people wil. >> more dolphins, fewer people. >> more dolphins, fewer people. >> it is a very interesting upgrade, it is called changing tides. i like that. prince of tides. a lot of people are saying -- people are starting to travel again. there is no business travel. most people do not want another person from another company to get into their ecosystem and that still matters you don't want -- the other thing that is happening, if you look at the new york times compiles a list of colleges, and covid, and do you want those people coming back from thanksgiving i think that is going to be at the crux of what we have to worry about, there are many of these are asymptomatic, like the tennessee titans i remember the titans. >> yeah. i think thanksgiving could be problematic with all the kids coming back from college. >> you're at the front line,

david. >> we'll see we'll take it a day at a time. >> i don't want to jinx tufts. >> no, they're doing great they're doing great. so far, so good. i thisnk all the parents don't want their kids back like heisman, stay where you are. love you, love you >> there are some themes that are working. i'll tell you one theme really working is increasingly plant-based. all the big food companies, it is a plant-based moment. no matter how many times people cut numbers beyond meat, it doesn't quit it just doesn't quit beyond meat, plant-based conagra is endorsing plant-based. the millennials are the main shopping people these days and they like plant-based. look at that. >> yes >> the meat -- >> piper today, 130 to 178 on

beyond meat. it is not the first price target increase in recent days. oil, again, leading, sector up 2% to bob pisani. good morning, bob. >> good morning, guys. happy tuesday. nice start to the day. 5 to 1 advancing to declining stocks modest move in the s&p it didn't look that strong the ad line really looking good these days down to about 3 to 1 as we open a few days and as carl mentioned, energy leading nicely here, banks, these are all associated with cyclicals,/reopening to a certain extent materials great month in september. industrials strong and tech is lagging. if you look at the megacaps, obvious reason for this, the u.s. -- release of a u.s. house antitrust report here that was negative on big tech and alying more investigations are coming you see modest declines here i don't think that's the really big issue here i think the reagan rel big issu

the markets is the stimulus package and what is going on with that. they're starting to get concern here christine lagarde was out this morning saying there is a second arm to the recovery in europe, meaning the v recovery that we're having is turning into a w because of the second wave that we're seeing over in europe. she's concerned about that she's calling for more stimulus. powell has repeatedly called for more fiscal support needed he's going to be doing -- he was doing congressional testimony a while ago. central bankers seem very worried about this cliff effect from any end to government support. pelosi, mnuchin supposed to talk again this morning the traders are getting nervous about this the markets are holding up on several themes several subthemes out there, besides stimulus there is this idea that there is less chance of a contested election that may drag on for months afterwards. that's holding up the markets. if you look at the vix futures, we noted for a long time, a spike going into the elections

the vix futures are flattening out a little bit in the last couple of weeks. that lends support to the idea there is less anxiety post election out there this is the vix futures curve. you see it spikes up in november, a little bit, and then moves down this is, again, a little flatter than it was several weeks ago. so maybe some less chances of a contested election, calming things down a little bit there is also another one out there, what i call the post election chatter there is this meme out there of this vague hope for rotation going into small caps, going into value names, if after the elections you get a democratic sweep, and there is a big stimulus package, post the stimulus package we're talking about, this is a vague hope that exists out there, there is a mini rally in the last week in this group, the small caps and the value are modestly outperforming the growth and the big caps, the s&p 500. i would not call this terribly statistically significant given how noisy this can be on a daily basis. right now, this whole idea that

maybe we'll get some big stimulus story out there is a little bit of a pipe dream now for the moment, i would say that the key thing that has happened here is the do nothing investor is winning the day we are in the middle of the trading range in the s&p 500 think about this, for the last three months, we have been 3200 to 3600. where are we right now we're exactly at 3400, in the middle, growth is still generally outperforming value. but large cap is generally modestly outperforming small caps, but i wouldn't say any of that is terribly dramatic. overall, i would say the do nothing investor simply staying right in the middle, holding a broad portfolio of stocks are the ones that have done best so far. certainly picking value over growth, small caps over big caps, none of that is trbl lyte outperformed back to you. >> bob, thanks s&p now slipping into the red. watching yields as well.

to rick santelli this morning. hey, rick. >> good morning, carl before we get to yields, very quickly, we had a 67.1 billion trade deficit for the month of august, the second worst ever to '92 when record keeping began. august 2006 is the worst level, minus 68.27. it merits looking at this. the service surplus was the smallest in eight years. merchandise deficit all time record we moved 6% higher than last month on this particular deficit. and imports were just through the roof almost 240 billion, up over 3% now, let's go to those charts. look at intraday of 10s. we have come off a bit we briefly very briefly touched these 78 level really the key is june's close of 90 basis points let's look at two-day of 30s, reached as high as 160 pay attention to the june high

close of 166 in the march i hhih close of 180 you see both 10s and 30s, you see the yields i'm talking about and some of the significant highs of the past. finally, 10s minus bunds, i like to monitor this, well over 200 before covid however, with our yields moving up, 10s minus bunds moved up close to 130 as you see on this mid-march chart. we haven't been that wide since covid. three-day of the dollar index, one would think it would do better considering what is going on rates it isn't as to the motivation, buying stocks or seeing yields go higher, bob has his theories many believe when you consider the age of the president, how quickly it seems to have recovered, that's pretty optimistic carl, jim, david, back to you. >> all right, rick, thanks talk to you in a bit rick santelli. we're watching some of the components on the dow here boeing is in the lead as credit suisse ups its target to 184 apple is the laggard and with that dow holding on to 64 points

if we don't get the support, we're just going to have to borrow that much more money an we just need to get from here to there. we have not asked our employees to take any pay cuts or do any furloughs, any layoffs, in our history, so i'm proud of the fact that once again we can be different, avoid furloughs, avoid layoffs, and you know, cut pay rates, which i don't like to do, but it's a shared sacrifice, and this is the kind of company that i think is up to that task. >> southwest gary kelly this morning on "squawk box." he's being modest, jim not only have they got furloughed, they've never furloughed or cut any jobs in their 50 years of flying, and he is foregoing his base salary for the next year. >> there are very few executives

that people should not be cynical about. i think that what he's done is remarkable his predecessor, too i mentioned to david earlier, i know that people in twitter said i got a beat-down from david but i he's my friend, but when gary kelly says that things are bad, then secretary mnuchin and speaker pelosi should focus on it, because he's the best of the best and it's bad for him you can imagine what it's like for the other phil lebeau often speaks to? >> jim, without a doubt. you know i was in no way impugning his credibility or the fact you said it's important to listen to him. the question is whether or not he will be listened to, because this is not new. >> and there i agree with you. i guess i got excited because when it's so cut and dried, and carl, when it's so cut and dried and gary kelly is so good, you kind of feel they'll unite in washington, but, and the stocks are up in large part i think because there is a sense things are getting better and traffic,

but when it comes to actual employees, there's got to be someone, got to be some people in washington who just say let's put aside our differences. we don't want airlines to go under. we don't want these people to suddenly be fending for themselves, because that's not our country's way, but i think that in an election year, i guess it's every man for himself and woman for herself? i don't know it's discouraging. >> yep well the international trade group today has some numbers, jim, about cash burn in the second half of this year, at 77 billion, that would be about 300 grand a minute grand a minute >> woo ♪ ♪ ♪ >> for the international

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back in just a moment. let's get to jim and "stop trading. >> b of a piece, top picks for the holidays bed bath, tapestry, target bed bath, can you imagine how

backed they are? mark trenton was the show last week and his vision is a brilliant one. david, i'm willing to take you the one at wachun this weekend, both wear masks. it will be a blast >> we haven't done it yet. >> now we can't, because i don't want to be that close to you eight feet is the new rule >> 30 feet, whatever this is >> so anyway, carl, when you hear bed bath one of the ones you want to buy, this is the shorted 60% of the float is short. what are people going to do? i mean, they're going to buy sheets and hang themselves >> piper's got a new survey of teens. i'm sure you saw this, jim, nike dominates close, ulta dominates beauty and amazon no competition on shopping websites >> mary dylan of ulta made an incredible move in staying alive

versus the sephoras versus everybody, look at the department stores. she's remarkable and doesn't get nearly enough credit for what she accomplished it's abamazing company by the way their stuff is good i ordered online >> how about tonight, jim? >> generac, you can give power back making it so that you get the money back and making more power through solar. it is the future it's the way kind of carbon free i'm not, it's better than coal, i'm just putting it out there. it's better than coal. >> yes >> trying to make some cases here >> i see, yep, jmp initiated outperform 285 >> i know, incredible. >> that will be a good one to watch. >> and david -- >> see you tonight, jim. >> i threw my mask at david, i didn't mean to [ laughter ] >> "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk on the

street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber. seema modi is with us watching the markets vacillate between the red and the green. our roll back begins with the return to the white house, the latest on the president's health condition, after leaving walter reed, and how today's trade might be impacted. >> the news there, progress being made on a stimulus bill. house speaker pelosi and treasury secretary mnuchin met for an hour yesterday. and biden's tack plan, why he's drawing the line at $400,000 and what it means for your money >> we'll begin with the latest on the president's health. eamon javers is in washington this morning some headlines crossing today from the "new york times" that the white house might consider a nationwide address we'll have to see. >> yes, we will have to see, carl no confirmation of that from the white house just yet but we're going to see how the president manages to govern while still suffering from the coronavirus the white house says there's going to be an additional round of treatment medically for the

president today. he won't be out of the woods they say until monday, so ihe's going to be monitored by the medical unit the president has to figure out how to deal with a staff that's been hard-hit now by the coronavirus. he himself and his wife suffering the effects of the coronavirus today. they've told us, the indications are that he intends to continue to release some of his videos and communicate via twitter, which we've seen this morning but a national address would be something new. we're going to monitor that and see if we can get any confirmation from the white house that's what's going to happen >> eamon, it's david curious what your sense is in terms of the work that will take place in the west wing, what can take place given how far the virus has spread there, and whether there's any sense as to when the president's actually going to be able to get back out on the campaign trail. >> in terms of travel, we just have no idea at this point, but it is sort of a virtual campaign from the white house, over the past 48 hours, what we've seen from the president's twitter feed has been emphasizing those campaign points to his millions

of followers, so he's not totally side-tracked in terms of campaigning. in terms of inside the west wing, a lot of statuffers are working from home as many as can but there are certain functions that have to take place inside the white house, including security on the first part, and then also some national security classified information that happens is handled inside the white house. that stuff can't be taken back to people's houses in the suburbs or their apartments in the city that has to happen at the white house, so there are staffers who do have to be there. one of the big questions is going to be whether the president leaves the west -- leaves the residence and goes over to the west wing. remember, the oval office and the presidential offices are in the west wing, which is a separate building almost entirely from the residents itself they're connected by the colonnade, but the president would have to walk down the colonnade out of doors effectively to get to the oval office in the west wing, where the rest of his staff are working. no indication that's going to do that we are told that he might hunker

down in the residence. all plans are subject to change without notice >> eamon, are we expected to see the president after his home infusion of remdesivir, any expectation that we could see him and how will we get an update from his medical steam? >> there's nothing on the schedule today yesterday the medical team, they brought the white house pool reporters who travel with the president over to walter reed for a couple of hours, the pool reporters had no indication whether there would be a briefing or not and they did announce that 3:00 p.m. briefing that we had yesterday. we might see something like that again today from the medical team, but the pool is not at walter reed, the pool is at the white house so we'll see if the white house physician will come out and brief reporters at some point today. no indication we'll see the president at all today except for the report from the "new york times" there's a possibility of a national address. those possibilities have been floated and not happened in the past, so we're going to need to get some confirmation that's where they're going.

>> eamon, thank you. meantime, still no deal on a possible fit pandemic relief package as speaker pelosi and secretary mnuchin failed to come to terms ilan mui has the latest. >> reporter: the good news is they are still talking and the bad news, we are still waiting the treasury secretary and house speaker are scheduled to have another phone call today, as you mentioned they were on the phone for an hour yesterday, and they appear to be getting into some of the details of what exactly a deal would look like, still unclear, though, whether there is time to have a break-through before the election. on the other hand, when it comes to the supreme court, senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said that republicans are full steam ahead. th amy coney barrett are scheduled next week for four days and two of the committee members who contracted coronavirus say they

are feeling better and expecting to be ready to go. democrats are raising objections over health and safety concerns but republicans argue anyone who doesn't feel comfortable being there in person can still participate virtually as they have able to do since the start of this pandemic >> look, we have months, months of experience governing this way while protecting health and safety here in senate. this body will not cease to function because democrats are frayed they may lose a vote. >> reporter: mcconnell has said he is committed to ensuring that these confirmations are fair, thorough, and dignified. guys >> elan, a couple days ago the speaker put out a list of basically five areas of disagreement with the treasury secretary. can we say that progress has, more progress has been made in one of those areas than the other four >> reporter: yes, we just don't

know, carl there has been sort of radio silence other than to say that they have speaking about specific numbers, so that does give some hope that there is some progress being made i will say that this is the strategy that mnuchin and pelosi have taken before, and successfully this is what they did when they were negotiating c.a.r.e.s., this is what they did when they were negotiating the second round of ppp what they did negotiating the government funding bill that would keep the lights on through december 11th. the two of them get on the phone and feel like they can hash out a deal the question here is, are they the only two who matter in this case we have mark meadows in the mix, the president newly back from the white house perhaps feeling emboldened and wanting to take on a big challenge, whether it's the supreme court or whether it's stimulus, so we'll have to see how that changes the dynamic, but we do know that mnuchin and pelosi have a good working relationship, and that should serve them well, if these talks progress >> ilan mui with the latest on

stimulus, thanks more clarity on joe biden's tax plan and the $400,000 line in the sand he intends to draw on defining rich robert rich explains >> good morning, seema joe biden is saying the wealthy would pay more of their new share, those who earn more than $400,000 a year. by national standards people who make more than $400,000 a year are an elite group, represent the top 1.8% of house holds, they earn 25% of the nation's income now they would face several tax increases from a higher income tax rate and new payroll taxes to wiping out the business income deduction, but in high cost states and cities, $400,000 may not be considered all that wealthy. the campaign hasn't said whether that money will be combined in total family income or individual income, and whether it's going to be adjusted for inflation, so over time, that

could capture more taxpayers to be in the top 1% of earners nationally right now you need about $515,000 in income in new york and new jersey you need at least $700,000 a year, and california it's $660,000 and in connecticut, that is the highest, you need $827,000 to be in the 1%. an analysis by financial samurai, a financial planning firm, found that a family of four with $400,000 in income in a major city would be able to afford a $2 million home, a toyota highlander or similar car and two staycations and one road trip per year, and they would only be left with $36 a year in cash flow. guys, back to you. >> robert n comparison to past candidates or politicians, how does joe biden's threshold compare? is it low or high? >> reporter: it's higher than the most recent comparable which is then candidate obama's plan,

which was $250,000 in income, so this is quite a bit higher and that's because he had a lot of pushback, back then in 2008 for 250 being too low. you had professors saying look, that's what we make in household income we're not rich so it's quite high relative to history. the question is, is it too high to raise enough revenue? >> and robert, a completely self-interested question, although one that's important to residents of high tax states you know where i'm going if they go to 39, 6 on the top rate will they lift the tax rate on the salt deduction? >> biden's plan specifically lifts that cap so that is a give-back to the high earners. question whether other democrats particularly in the senate decide to say look, it's going to be a $20,000 cap or something a little bit higher or somehow adjust it for the very high earners not to give them a break because they may need that

revenue but for now, david, he repeals that limit on deductions for salt >> robert, thanks. it will be a topic for the next four weeks at least as we get into the election. robert frank on tax policy we'll talk a break here. markets trying to hang on to some gains and build on e th one-month highs that we got yesterday. yesterday. nasdaq jus yeah, that's half the fun of a new house. seeing what people left behind in the attic. well, saving on homeowners insurance with geico's help was pretty fun too. ahhhh, it's a tiny dancer. they left a ton of stuff up here. welp, enjoy your house.

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short. david is biden's tax policy the dow is up 89 points. david kostin is with us to talk about it good to see you. >> carl, thanks for inviting me. >> you have approached this question a couple of different ways and even this week you say the biden tax plan would cut earnings by about 9% but there would be some offsets and some caveats. can you just explain where you're coming from >> sure. first of all, i just want to underscore the fact that ultimately a vaccine is really more important than the election it's a medical problem that has disrupted the economy and society and ultimately there needs to be a solution and a vaccine really is the most important issue. but if we want to move to the subject of the election, which

is where so many portfolio managers are focusing their attention now, the way i think about that is sequencing, carl that's the most important concept in understanding the various proposals, because the consensus expectation on the polls and the betting markets is that you're likely to get a blue wave result from the election. and the market basically is pricing that so i think the market trades around this level, if in fact that transpires and you get that kind of an outcome the reason for this is a bunch of offsets there's fiscal spending that is one area we can focus on there's the proposal and the likely tax implications, and then there's the trade consequences so those three things kind of have to be brought together, and when we look at that, actually the timing of potential tax increases becomes critical so give me just a moment for a second, if you think about it, carl, from a fiscal stimulus point of view, that is additive to earnings. there's more revenues for

corporations the taxes basically would reduce some of that, and the timing when that takes place. so one of the assumptions we're making right now is that that may get postponed into 2022-2023, phasing in as opposed to impacting earnings in 2021. so that, carl, becomes a big topic of conversation. >> interesting when you say that markets are starting to price in this blue wave, do you think yields are part of that do they reflect that right now and what do you make of prediction markets which don't necessarily agree with some of the spreads in the polls >> right, so there's a couple issues there yes, i would expect or i would attribute some of the backup in rates in the last couple of days, the expectation of a fiscal stimulus, very larg fiscal stimulus is certainly starting to creep into people's earnings models and forecasts, including our own, and so that would be an upward push on the,

on rates there's also uncertainty around the exact timing of this potential tax increase right, there's taxes and i know in your previous segment, there's proposals on marginal income taxes, corporate tax rates and capital gains rates, so all of these kind of interplay in the economics market all of these embedded capital gains part of a bull market over the last one, three, five, ten years, if you have an increase in capital gains that doubles, that does make it somewhat optimizing to be a seller of stocks obviously uncertainty when that may or may not take place, exactly what it will be. that's one area on a personal level but in terms of individual ownership, but if you look at the corporate taxes which is really where most of the focus is right now, the impact as you said earlier could be as much as

a 9% diminution reduction in profits, and on the other hand more than offset frankly in terms of the amount of fiscal spending, so put some numbers around this, baseline forecast for next year, assuming a divided government, basically the status quo, doesn't necessarily mean president trump is reelected but rather a different party controlling the senate and the white house, that would be about $170 for next year of earnings but if you have our baseline assumption, assuming a blue wave election, and a layering in or a sequencing of the tax increases, earnings actually would be higher, about $179, and that actually would be increasing the growth rate for earnings next year the market is certainly 23focus a lot of attention on this issue. >> i wonder, david, whether or not you think the trajectory of buy-backs and dividends is changing i'll get to my next question in

a second that was a big dynamic and you grew attention to it earlier in the year anecdotally we're seeing changes but does it add up to much >> it's an excellent point the buy-backs are likely to be at a much reduced level. basically they dropped dramatically from 2018 and '19 this year, of course, with the coronavirus reduction in cash flow, for so many companies, the federal reserve indicating on the c car that the banks for example precluded from buying back stock, things like that, have reduced the amount of buy-backs which is a key issue, because in a world of demand and the flow of funds for u.s. equities, the corporations and buy-backs were the largest source of demand for every year for the last decade. this year, it's actually coming from foreign investors the foreign buyers particularly in a weak dollar environment, that is typically associated

with incremental buying by non-u.s. and foreign investors that's one area we're seeing sort of placement looking out into next year, relatively muted from a buy-back perspective. dividends likely to arise in the payer of dividends are the tech companies, a good amount of cash flow and we are expecting increases in dividends really in those areas that some other areas across the market. that's how we think about it real important is the demand from foreign investors at this junctu juncture >> david, part of that story includes the tax cuts that incentivize so many technology companies to repatriate back to the u.s., capital some of it was on dividends and investment, hiring, jobs assuming biden wins the presidency, what happens to all that cash? does it go back overseas to tax haven countries like ireland >> no, much of the cash as you indicated came back at a one-time chunk, some of it was

used for capital spending, some used for buy-backs, some used for dividends, different forms investing for growth not likely to necessarily go overseas the source of it is the technology companies generate nearly 60% of their revenues overseas so first of all, in order to have that, if you issue them on the foreign investment tax rates, you actually have to generate the revenues overseas, so there's also part of the proposals, if you break down the proposal by vice president, former vice president biden, one of them is to raise the actual corporate tax rate, sort of the statutory federal corporate tax rate, proposal to take that from 21% to 28%, but there's also a gilty, gold intangible tax rate as well, some taxes on that international income so it's not as though because

you generate the revenues overseas you're no longer subject to the taxes there's policy proposals that would, you know, take that some of that revenue and tax. there's different approaches i think it's important to understand that the tax rate is not so much the statutory rate it's the effective rate that is relevant >> effective rate. >> and the effective rate for corporations in 2017 and before averaged around 27%. by 27% and it dropped after the trump tax plan to around 19% so obviously all ofthat incremental revenue, all that margin in yours to the equity investor, that is one of the reasons for the bull market, in my opinion, or one of the reasons over the last several years it's really much more revenue drops to the bottom line, in terms of earnings now under the proposal, from biden is to raise that tax rate to something like 28%, kind of reverse that statutory rate.

now, it's unclear as i said at the very beginning with answer to carl's question that actually there may be an intermediate, maybe it only goes to 25%. maybe it isn't applying to 2021 earnings maybe that gets phased in to 2022 or 2023 a lot of uncertainty around this, and this is really an area of focus for many investors, and appropriately so, because that incremental revenue either going to the government or going to the corporations and investors makes a difference from a valuation perspective. >> yes finally, david, you know, you talk about vaccine hopes, and we've talked about the creep up in rates both of those things are not necessarily bullish for long-term growth or mega cap tech or do i have that wrong >> no, i think the point david made earlier, the s&p 500, use that as a metric peaked about a month ago, early september, at

the same time that the probability, based on the good judgment of that survey of so many forecasters, the probability of a widely available fda approved vaccine, by the end of the first quarter, gone from 40% carl and climbed as high as 71% on september 2nd, when the market was, hit its peak, looking back today it's around 47%, it's dropped quite significantly, and so part of this, my very first point i want to underscore again, this is a medical issue that has disrupted the economy and obviously markets, et cetera, in the bear market, that needs to be solved eventually, and whether that timing of that is so essential in terms of the economic path and the path for earnings, so that's sort of the vaccine and how that interacts with the ability of companies to renormalize the economy to get back to normal or to go on the road back to normal. that would be a beneficial component before supporting

cyclicals and more value stocks, but in the absence of that, it's the growth story that continues, companies that are basically pun intended here immune from the virus that have the benefits from working, people working from home or ability through the internet and various other things that they're not as subjected to the face-to-face parts of the economy, those companies continue to do quite well and likely to take place until there's a vaccine. so i think that's a key issue and the higher rate you reference is basically the valuation push-back, why you get the market trading around 3,600 at the end of this year, 3,800 by the middle of 2021. >> right, a lot of those products we're using at this moment, david, because in fact, the vaccine is not here yet. all good points. great notes this week. we always appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you >> david kostin, goldman sachs >> dow up 111. etf spotlight, ticker vcr on a

bit of a recovery tear since the covid crash in march up over 60%, since april 1st, fueled by a rebound in ♪ ♪ although that sector remains under pressure even this week after norwegia

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welcome back, everybody. i'm sue herera here is your cnbc news update at this hour. near dallas, a white police officer has been charged with murder following the fatal shooting of a black man this weekend. officer sean lucas accused of shooting jonathan price while responding to a disturbance call price's family members saying he was trying to break up a domestic disagreement and would not have escalated the situation with police. hurricane delta continues to strengthen it is forecast to make landfall in mexico's yucatan peninsula tomorrow as a category 4 storm after that, though, delta is expected to come ashore again in louisiana on saturday, with category 2 strength. a britain and american and a german are sharing this year's nobel prize for physics for their work on black holes, including the discovery of a super massive black hole at the center of our galaxy and new study shows american households with teenagers are more likely to have gotten

covid-19 infections. you can go to cnbc.com to see how the pandemic has affected teen employment and also their spending you are up to date i'll send it back to you, seema. >> sue, thank you. the race for a covid vaccine continues this morning, as glaxosmithkline and verbaya announce their antibody treatment trial moves on to phase three. here with unique insight merck's former head of vaccines, dr. zoren christiansen, currently the ceo of sharp's technology. doctor, it's a pleasure to have you on right now you spent 30 years at merck. you've seen a number of vaccines successfully go from development to market. your thoughts on the support of the white house is blocking the fda from new vaccine guidelines because it will slow down the time line, does that raise some concerns about the safety and efficacy of a covid-19 vaccine >> so first, thanks for having me, and i don't think there will

be any concerns with respect to the safety of a vaccine nor the efficacy based on what i am up to date on, several phase three clinical trials are currently ongoing, and just one example moderna has recruited and randomized 28,000 of the 30,000 patients they want to get into the phase three program and almost 20,000 have gotten the second dose, so we are, in my opinion, very close to have an answer if we have a safe and effective vaccine, and i say we will. >> but several of these vaccine candidates, doctor, in development require a two-dose regimen. does that create any logistical challenges, since you have to make sure that the individual comes back for that second shot? >> yes obviously it would be highly preferred if we had one dose vaccine. moderna and pfizer as well have the regimens so that will create some challenges and based on my

experience, when you have to give more than one dose, you will always miss people that forget to come back or don't want to come back, or experienced a little bit of adverse events during the first dose and okay, i don't want the second dose. so that is logistics challenge definitely >> doctor, manufacturing where i know many of the top vaccine candidates and the companies behind them have already begun that process, but even more so, we hear a lot about transport, some of these will have to be transported at incredibly low temperatures is it a logistical or very difficult logistical puzzle to actually imagine getting this into the arms of billions of people >> yes, so i don't think it would be a huge challenge within the united states, but if you look at the global picture,

there was some news i think it was yesterday where some airlines claimed that to get the vaccine globally, it would mean 15,000 747s filled with vaccines and for most vaccines, you have to have temperature control when you transport the vaccine, and that is sometimes a challenge as well, so it is a big logistics challenge. >> we talk a lot about vaccines, and i know you have an expertise in them, but i'd love to get your sense as well on the anti-virals. the president obviously taking the monoclonal antibody cocktail from regeneron merck has a small hol molecule anti-viral in phase three trials with how important are those going to be in terms of combating the virus? >> so i think obviously the preferred is to vaccinate and prevent to get the disease if that happens, i think it's obviously great to have a couple of options where you can treat patients that are seriously sick

from this virus, and the more options you have, the better you are off. so i'm really encouraged by what we have seen that we will see how it pans out in the longer term >> but do you think that president trump's powerful cocktail drugs that's taking could that put more emphasis going forward on treatment over a vaccine, if this deems to be successful >> no i don't think any physician or health care professional would prefer treatment versus prevention. it's good to have options when you get seriously ill, but to exchange that for a vaccine, i don't think that will ever happen >> all right, well a time line certainly in focus, dr. christiansen, we appreciate you bringing your insight to us on this topic >> thank you getting some news on tiktok as we go to break.

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the dow is up 93. fed chairman jerome powell speaking at the national association for business economics meeting this morning steve liesman has the embargoed remarks from the fed chair he joins us now. steve? >> david, thank you. jay powell will say the recovery progressed more quickly than expected but say the u.s. has a strong but incomplete recovery and say there's a risk that the pace, the rapid pace of recovery will slow, noting that the data has already shown signs of slowing from the rapid pace from may and june, all of that leads

to what looks to be one of his main points in this speech, that there's a need for further support and specifically he seems to be suggesting the need for further fiscal support, noting that the fed has done quite a bit, but the recovery will be stronger he says if monetary and fiscal policy work together, and interesting point he makes about, to make this point before that there's more risk from doing too little than doing too much to the u.s. economy, and his concerns echoe by the comments from charlie evans from chicago made the same point that the slowing pace could trigger recessionary dynamics on its own, where weakness feeds upon weakness, specific areas of the economy he pointed out, he said business investment is on a renewed upward path and financial markets have returned to what he calls normal functioning he says when you take the different factors about the unemployment out there, the decline in participation rate,

some of the misclassification in there, he says the more realistic unemployment rate to look at is closer to 11%, not the official number of 7.9%, and he notes that the downturn has hurt low income or low wage workers, minorities and women the hardest. overall powell saying that the outlook is highly uncertain and depends on the course of the virus and the public health response david? >> steve, thank you. steve liesman. good place as well to start with our next guest, former council of economic advisers chairman jason fuhrman joins us now. certainly want to get to your editorial in the "wall street journal" about biden's tax plan, but just give me a quick reaction to what you heard from steve there in terms of the chairman's remarks >> look, i think it's certainly the case that the economy is in better shape than we thought it would be in and also the case that the economy is in bad shape and needs a lot more than the zero fiscal support it's getting

right now, and so i hope pelosi and mnuchin come to a deal asap. >> you know, who knows, maybe they will, but do you really think they will? they can all hope for it, but they can't reason able to get there yet. i don't know what gives you the hope there's anything that can happen between now and election day for example. >> i think secretary mnuchin's last offer was perfectly reasonable i'd love to see her improve, $400 a week for unemployment insurance, over $400 billion for states, $75 billion for testing. democrats have already achieved a lot of their objectives, gotten the trump administration to move a long way to them now i think they're going to need to move towards mnuchin to get this done. >> yes, although do we think mcconnell's on board already with the rest of the senate needed to actually pass something? >> i think if it's passed the house with the support of president trump, it will get 50 votes or 60 votes, whatever it

needs to in the senate >> let's talk about vice president biden's tax plan, which you wrote about in the "wall street journal," and you reference the fact that gross revenues from taxes collected by the federal government right now are about 16% of gross domestic product. you think, well that is historically quite low you think it could go higher without harming the overall ability of the economy to grow [ muted ] yes, jason suddenly was unable to communicate we'll try to get jason back as quickly as possible. you saw his audio. jason, you're back start the answer again got you. go ahead >> i'm sorry about that. we were collecting 20% of gdp in taxes in the late 1990s, that was one of the best periods for economic growth and job growth, so i think that's fully compatible with a strong economy. >> talk to us about timing, though, jason. i mean, an economy where we're

seeing an unemployment rate fall, but still around the 8% level, i mean, can it sustain a higher tax rate? >> yes, absolutely, as long as it's combined with a lot of effective fiscal stimulus at the same time. if you look at what's proposed in terms of things like unemployment insurance, assistance for states infrastructure, all of that is much larger than any of the changes to taxes that's why when goldman sachs economists looked at the plan, they said all in, including the tax increases, it would raise economic growth by one percentage point per year for the first several years after it was implemented. >> jason, national debt $27 trillion for the first time this week, up $4 trillion from the beginning of the year. when you say that you expect some of the gop senators to go along with a package that the president endorses, what happens to their concerns about the

national debt? >> the concerns about the national debt are very variable and it depends on what they're voting on, whether or not they're concerned on the debt. i think some of them wouldn't vote for it, for exactly those debt reasons but if it passed the house, if it had the support of president trump, i think you'd get enough democrats, enough republicans that combined between them you would have support to pass it, and economists nearly universally across the political spectrum say right now is not the time to worry about debt right now is the time to worry about jobs and economic growth >> you're absolutely right we hear that from both sides, from the powells and the kudlows and you name it, but when does it -- i wonder, when do you think it does become a bigger concern? is that a dynamic we get in the next 12 months >> opinion on that is more divided. i tend to be dovish. i'm not as worried about -- i'm 100% sure we'll get to the debt

this year. i'm not sure we should worry about it a lot for the next five years. i'd like to see whoever is next president paying for the proposal, not adding to the deficit and debt but i don't think deficit reduction needs to be a top priority in the world where interest rates are low i think we can take our time to deal with the issue. >> biden talked about using extra income generated from his tax plan, jason, on infrastructure, but that will require the consent of congress, meaning he'd need the democrats to take back the senate, yet the markets seem to be still working all of of this narrative you're seeing some of the infrastructure names like caterpillar now at a two-year high your thoughts though on this plan >> i think there are, vice president biden was, had great relationships with republicans he was often our negotiator on fiscal issues. if he has a republican senate he'll be able to get less done than a democratic senate he could still figure out how to get things done and i think

infrastructure would be very high on that list, if he has a democratic senate, that obviously opens up more possibilities for things like expanding investments and child care and preschool, which shouldn't actually be a partisan issue, but unfortunately has become more of one than something like infrastructure has been >> yes, that's funny it's always infrastructure week. we never seem to get any infrastructure spending. jason, what about capital gains? i've heard vice president biden discuss it, or at least i think i have where do they stand on that, and what are your expectations in terms of whether there will be an increase in capital gains taxes? >> yes, the vice president has proposed raising the capital gains rate to the ordinary income rate, which under his plan would be 39.6 i see a strong case for raising the capital gains, i'm not sure i'd go all the way up to 39.6, and my guess is i don't know,

uhm, you know, a lot of democrats really believe in that, you know, others more skeptical, i think that would be something congress has to work out. >> and do you really believe that there would be a significant infrastructure bill passed in the early part of a biden presidency >> absolutely. absolutely first of all, the highway program is normally a five or six-year thing. a five or six-year thing it just expired at the end of september. under any responsible president or leader, we would be doing another five or six-year highway now. it's a really important clean energy component to our infrastructure as well something vice president biden has long been passionate about i expect it to be towards the top of his agenda. and i would hope under president trump, you know, we would do something about this too every week is infrastructure week you know, maybe we will get infrastructure during one of the

weeks. >> yeah. i just wondered, you know, you dismissed concerns over the deficit. you know, i wonder, does all the spending that is taking place this year, just numbers that we could never have imagined at the beginning of the year, carl mentioned what, $4 trillion added to the national debt, does it make it easier to spend more money next year? >> i think in maybe some rational way it makes it easier to spend more money next year. a year or two ago, one of the arguments get against our debt level is it may be okay now. what happens when we gheetet in crisis and can't barrow to get out of it? that argument turned out to be completely wrong with very much more borrowing capacity than we realize yeah, i think that's going to to some degree create a permission structure and that will be a rational permission structure. you adjust your fiscal policy to

the latest data. >> jason, thank you. >> all right let's turn our attention to shares of beyond meat this morning. piper sandler raising the price target thanks in part to a partnership with mcdonald's. half of the teens surveyed eat plant-based meat o ♪ you may not expect the unexpected, but you can certainly take it all. the lexus es. wow, this rain is bananas. now available with awd. lease the 2021 es 250 awd for $359 a month for 36 months.

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right back. to welcome back to "squawk on the street." markets are flat on the day so far. you can see what the s&p 500 flat on the day. moving between positive and negative territory throughout the course of the morning. as we see yields continue to rise, with he see the more rate sensitive sectors performing somewhat in kind the ten year note yield right now 79 basis points or .79%. the financials, for example, among the top performers again today, particular strength in the regional banks out there like people's united bank and lincoln financial and the insurance kind of retirement

side of things on the other hand, you have real estate again the big lagger. now i'll send it back over to you forrest of our program here. >> dom, thank you. >> we're also keeping a close eye on the theater stocks which are bouncing to day. let's get over to julia boorstin >> they're planning to keep the 80% of the u.s. theaters currently operating to keep them open cine where cinemark is up yesterday those stocks plummeted this after regal parent cineworld is shutting down all of the u.s. and uk theaters indefinitely the shares are bouncing back as well they're up 10% after plummeting 36% yesterday. carl, over to you. >> all right thank you very much.

what a story in the entertainment business in it meantime, take a look at sonos and logitec this morning, getting crushed. they remove all the third party

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good morning it is 8:00 a.m. at apple headquarters