would have had to spend to buy the stock, so i was in those. >> okay. and your final trade >> facebook. 265 calls that expire this friday, 15,000 of them have traded. >> josh, quick with your final trade. >> starbucks. >> okay. >> and steph, to you as well, final trade? >> zimmer, zimmer. >> okay. now you're free to go, steph, okay >> okay. >> now i don't want to. >> all right i don't want you to go either. thanks for watching. have a great day, everybody. "the exchange" starts now. >> thank you, scott, and hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." weakness feeds on weakness that's the warning from fed chair powell today as he calls on congress to act and act quickly on covid relief. we'll have the latest and the market impact. where teens are and aren't spending their money this year, and the stocks most affected by that. and september surge. retail is rebounding from a weak

back-to-school season. a top analyst joins us with the biggest winners from this breakout but, first, let's get to the markets and dom chu kicks things off with the numbers. >> reporter: that survey, i've got to tell you, i don't know where the teens are buying the louis vuitton handbags anyway, what's happening with the markets right now. dow industrials up 100 points. not bad given the massive rally we saw yesterday, but still the session high was 135 so we're not far from there however, the nasdaq has been underperforming currently off 1/so of 1% during to the underperformance or performance of the lagging tech stocks like microsoft and apple. not exactly keeping pace with the other parts of the market. other parts of the market, these are some of the hot spots, especially over the last couple of week. check out what's happening with the russell 2000 small-cap index on a one-week basis, it's now up 7%. by the way, if that particular etf goes up a little bit higher from here, it will take out and be at the best levels since before the covid-19 pandemic, so

watch those small caps bank stocks on a tear, up 12%. yes, they have been underperforming, but, still, it's going on some shopping list and cloud computing up 4%, a big theme so far this year continuing strength there. the orange line is still a big upside move and take a look at this the reflation trade. folks looking at some of these beaten up stocks that do well in an economic recovery names like royal carribean, yes, beaten up. travel and leisure sucks but up 6% today oil services, halliburton, up 3%, tapestry, retail the company formerly known as coach up 4% and martin marietta, they make concrete, asphalt, up almost 4% as well so watch some of those cyclical names that have been beaten up as late in case they go higher on economic recovery hopes kelly, i'll send things back over to you. >> you were talking about bulldozers yesterday today it's concroat. we can see the theme here. we'll talk more about it

thank you, sir talk about sim plus hopes and infrastructure plans and why people are bidding up these sectors of the markets with the 30-year bond yield hill its highest level since june the curve steamning and the ten-year 0.777%. now rick santelli with more for us rick >> reporter: absolutely, the curve steepening no matter what combination you pick-2-s, 10s, 5s, 30s. 2s, 10s obviously the most looked at by investors, but the story you is look at intraday of ten-year and 30-year, is the fact that take what dom is talking about with regard to reflation. add in the notion that even though there's partial closures and everything isn't just right, we continue to see many of the numbers improving, is maybe not fast enough, but when you add in the notion that this is going to be a demand-led recovery once we're ahead of covid it makes sense of a reflation trade and look at inflation yields of 10s and 20s at the highest levels

since early june, what really is the issue here is testing the waters to see if the fed ultimately pushes back they have gone out of their way to say they don't want to nudge the market too much, especially if interest rates start responding to true economic fundamentals whether that's completely true with regard to quantitative easing, only time will tell. >> rick, i also want to mention, you know, this morning we got that trade deficit number, and it was a jaw-dropper basically saw, you know, the biggest monthly trade deficit that we've seen in several years time, and one -- kind of tied for one of the worst that we've seen in the last couple of decades, but the interesting thing about this as well is that sometimes the bad deficit is because we're importing more than we're exporting and that's a sign of economic vitality, if you will, so i don't know if we tie it all together that way, but i'm surprised there wasn't a bigger reaction, and i think a lot of people are saying, look, if anything this would putmore downward pressure on the doller a, right >> an downward pressure there is

on the dollar and you're exactly right. imports are filling up the empty inventory tank covid, of course, drained the inventories and other economies haven't recovered spectacularly well, so the exports are lagging a bit, and you can tell. if you add today's import and export numbers, 172 billion and just shy of 2 who billion, you come up with around 4 so billion. that's well below the addition of imports and exports pre-covid. yes, this is the second biggest deficit going back to record keeping in '92 and i agree with you. it's a statement of horsepower trying to rebuild inventories in front of the holidays. >> all right richter, thank you appreciate it. rick santelli, and we can't take e-con without bringing in steve liesman who is here with comments that the fed chair jay powell just made and call for more stimulus. steve here with the headlines.

hello, sir. >> hey, kelly. very specific picture. jay powell said that the economic recovery is progressing more quickly than expected but u.s. has an incomplete recovery. powell said there was a risk that the pace of recovery could slow, indeed already has since may and june, and that could lead to the likely need for additional support and he made clear that additional support he thinks should come at least in part from the fiscal side. >> we can help, but clearly this is not something that monetary policy and supervision of banks and financial stability and payments is -- can do all by itself those are the jobs that we have. clearly we have -- and we've said this from the beginning this will be a work of all of government in the first instance from the health authorities but then from fiscal authorities >> powell said the recovery will be stronger if the monetary fiscal sides work together and that the risk was doing too little, not doing too much his biggest concern, a slowing pace of recovery could trigger

typical recessionary dynamics where weakness creates more weakness on other aspects of the economy he says business investments on a renewed upward path, very good and the financial markets have returned to more normal functioning and a more realistic unemployment rate, close to 11% when you include the decline of participation compared to the 7.9% official rate and low-income rates, women and minorities have been hit the hardest and powell saying the outcome uncertain and the outcome, of course, depending on the course of the virus. kelly? >> you know, steve, stephanie was making an interesting point last hour about how the markets seemed to be anticipating more stimulus either way. either we get it before the election on some sort of pelosi/mnuchin compromise or after the election once that is settled one way or the other i mean, do you think that's right? i mean, how important -- the fed seems to be really pushing on congress to act and act quickly, you know do you think that it -- it's true that we might get a bill

either way here? >> i do. i mean, i think that for sure if there's a democratic senate with a democratic president you'll definitely get more stimulus, and i think that there's also a possibility that happens before the election as well i think there's a concern though, kelly, about timing. it's well to remember, and you've looked at this as long has i have really, the idea that fiscal stimulus always comes late that not the case in the spring, and we had some much better outcomes, and i think it's what people will remember that the outcomes were better because the -- the stimulus was not only large but very well-timed. by now we'll have probably a couple months where some of that have stimulus is wearing off we saw that in the personal income numbers in the last report we got and saw some decline in spending. coming up on the christmas season, a lot will depend upon how flush people will see with how they are going to spend. >> a lot of focus on whether the

recession -- technically the reinvestigation is over but has kind of this new recession started, this post-relief recession. >> now wait, wait, wait. >> kelly, wait a second. you -- you -- >> it's over. >> you can't call that until the national b the ones who call it, but, yes, technically in but we have to wait officially until nbr calls it. >> i wonder if we've sort of doubled it that's for another team. steve, thanks fothe headlines. appreciate it the. more market reaction to the headlines and the fate of covid relief i'm joined by jeff mortimer of bny wealth management and also jeff, i'll attorney to you, we've seen strong performance in materials and industrial stocks and even some of the banks

lately i think the bank stocks run 10%. you have yields on the rise. would you tie all of that to prospects for more covid stimulus >> potentially it's always hard to know we've had a couple of head fakes on value over growth since the march 23rd low we'll have to see if this one holds. certainly, as you get later and later and closer to perhaps better therapeutics, even a vaccine, for example, that you have to think at some point in time market participants will begin to shift away from those stocks which did well when the work from home themes and broader, you know, telemedicine, those types of things and move more to those stocks which will move well when the overall economy recovers, so we are positioning for both with our clients, and you may be -- you may be at the beginning perhaps of a more normal growth value move where both -- both types of stocks participate as the market moves higher that's healthy, by the way, for a market which begins in good faith and then ages.

>> investors like a scenario where nothing loses. you can have growth going up, value going up. >> correct. >> ernesto, same question to you. do you see more risks out thereto in any particular asset classes? >> well, i mean, you want to stay invested in equities right now because there's no question about the fact that the liquidity injection that the fed has put into the system has really driven asset prices higher we are a little bit more cautious, however at bmo on the particular sectors-of-the-market. we think it might be a little early to make the call on cyclicals simply because there's so much uncertainty as to the path of the recovery from covid because it is a medical event and we don't really know how it will evolve and when, for example, will we have enough of the population vaccinated so that we -- we have ourselves back in a more normal

environment, and also, by the way, some of the destruction in the labor market that we're seeing will be permanent, is becoming permanent, so too much uncertainty on the path to recovery so, therefore, we want to be a little bit more defensive oriented and still exposed to more defensive sectors such as retails and companies such as autozone and companies that do not depend on the economic recovery continuing because it may flatten out as chairman powell pointed out. >> yeah. >> in his testimony today. >> yeah. jeff, i want to turn back to you as we kind of figure out how this timing of relief may tie into the timing of the election. i mean, this has been a theme that we're hearing, you know, all day here, but you're among those that think that markets aren't properly discounted the prospect of a blue wave, you know, the democrats taking the white house and the senate most people say knee-jerk, that means slightly lower equity prices, but with the clarity, even if that's the outcome, trump, the declines that we

might see in the market. >> it's always hard to know. there's a lot of variables, including, of course, covid-19 which i think trumps all others. if you tell me the state of the virus, i'll tell you how the economy and the market is doing so we have to take that into account, but i think who wins the presidency, is i'm writing my monthly newsletter within our client base, and we are -- it's all about the election that's where all the client questions are coming, so you're hitting the nail on the head we have to remember that markets do discount the most likely outcome, and they do it immediately, so let's be cautious of thinking about current pricing and the fact that a blue wave may come. i think markets are perhaps discounting a high probability perhaps of a biden presidency, but i think the senate is still sort of up in the air. it's interesting listening to steve liesman talk about, you know, when the timing of that stimulant may come, whether preor post-election. markets have been discounting i

think some stimulant for quite some time and i think it's been a little disappointed but as news of it sort of reaches a fever pitch, markets rally on that news, so i think as long as you get it eventually, i think markets will sort of maintain these levels knowing that eventually it will come, whether it's pure post and exactly the level, i don't think markets much care. i think that it comes and the fed remains on the market side and it's also things that continue to support market levels. >> all right well, we'll keep an eye on all of those particularly sensitive parts of the markets are rates, materials and industrials. have to leave it there, guys jeff mortimer and ernesto ramos, do appreciate it thanks for joining me today. coming up it's chicken, carne and coffee where teens are spending their money but they are spending less this year. the stocks helped and hurt the the stocks helped and hurt the most by that

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with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. wñl÷o cf1 o welcome back some breaking news out of washington let's head to kayla tausche. what's going on, kayla >> reporter: kelly, several top

military brass, including the joint chiefs of staff, are all quarantining now after exposure to one of the top officials from the u.s. coast guard admiral charles ray, the vice commandant of the coast guard according to a statement provided by the department of defense to cnbc, the pentagon says we're aware that the vice commandant ray has tested positive for covid-19 and that he was at the pentagon last week for meetings with other senior military leaders, some meeting attendees included other service chiefs and he goes on to say that the pentagon is conducting additional contact tracing and taking appropriate precautions so far there have been no additional positive test or symptoms exhibited and that they will let us know if that changes. kelly. >> kayla, there's nothing on the surface of this that would suggest an obvious connection about where he got it. he wouldn't have been at that supreme court nomination ceremony or anything like that >> reporter: admiral ray was not at the supreme court nomination ceremony, but there are reports

out there that he was at the white house the following day. on the president's schedule the sunday after that sunday for amy coney barrett there was a reception at the white house for members of gold star families. we have not been able to confirm that admiral's ray attendance at that event, but there are reports that he was at the white house a week ago sunday for some reason and that perhaps that is where he contracted this virus >> and as you said that he went to the pentagon where he could have presumably exposed other military leaders. >> reporter: correct, and the statement from the pentagon says that that includes other service chiefs and now we know that members of the joint chiefs of staff are all quarantining after that possible exposure >> all right kayla, thank you very, very much kayla touchy in washington with that news for us let's turn how covid-19 has changed consumer behavior, including the fast food space where there's several companies really trying to embrace this change and make the most of it

kate rodgers is here with a look at who is doing what to adjust to the new normal. >> we've seen delivery and pizza players like papa johns take off at times and other restaurants are leaning into carry out and drive threw concepts as consumer prefrpss shift starbucks is opening smaller and to-go stores and more stores with drive threws in suburban areas in the next 12 to 18 months burger king announced its smaller format shows with drive-in options and curbside delivery options and taco bell has contactless curbside pickup and a lane to prioritize who order by its app and shake shack working on its drive threw lanes and carryout windows in august when more restaurants were reopened, drive threws represented 37% of all restaurant visits according to

the group. kelly, back over to you. >> yeah. more than ever this time of year starts to get chilly, our kate rogers. >> piper sandler is out with its biannual teen spending report and they found it's at its lowest level in 20 years, found at restaurants where teens spend a fifth of their dollars nicole, great to have you here the biggest little headline to me was the fact that starbucks is slipping a little bit here. what do you make of that >> yeah. starbucks has been the most preferred publicly traded concept. of course, that's not how teens identify with brands so when you back it up at the highest level, chick-fil-a is number one followed by starbucks. starbucks has been for a very long time a double-digit share -- my double digit share in terms of results, and it's

now down to the high single digits, and i think some of that share goes to chick-fil-a and there's a notion of it's about chicken but it's equally about being able to be on premise, obviously pre-pandemic and the real coffee and ice beverages that they have worked on and also duncan. duncan has been gaining share with the cohort that they otherwise weren't so successful at tapping into. >> yeah. i thought that was fascinating that the flip side of the coin is dunkin's rise, so from the stock point of view do you walk away from this thinking dunkin' is better positioned for the next generation or does it reflect a frugality and lack of ability to hang out at starbucks for the time being >> it's more than the disruptive period we saw the change in dunkin' a couple of survey cycles ago and

it's the espresso-based beverages and cold beverages which aren't so replicable at home, and it's also snack items. you know, the teens aren't pulling in for drip cove and a breakfast sandwich at that time of day so that gives them the part of the day that they are looking to utilize and then the influence of social media and in fact celebrities on social media seems to resonate with teens as well so dunkin' has three factors working -- working for them. >> and can perhaps continue to work for them. it's interesting meanwhile, you'll have to -- i guess we'll watch starbucks to see how they respond you also had the survey pointing out chipotle doing well vis-a-vis taco bell and mcdonald's, speaking of using social media or appealing to teens. the travis scott meal they have done has been a huge success they are going to be doing more now. the stock was at an all-time high today, but with it an all-time high, do you still think there's room to run? >> you know, we are neutral

there. i would say the top pick, no surprise to your viewers from our side followed by chipotle, followed by chipotle followed by chipotle in fact, i would make mention that we upgraded dunkin' just last week and looking at the ticket and the frequency and the operating models and geography, you know, it a lot of that alise across all of our coverage, but in terms of chipotle specifically, these concepts are able to grab more mind share and we see the bigger brands slipping, the legacy brands as the next generation brands become global brands, so when we think about chipotle specifically beating out taco bill, it's important that on a cuisine level, and that's just on a cuisine level, that that's where you first attract the masses and once you have done that successfully, then you can become the winner in terms of the overall top ten and be a global brand. >> yeah, it's amazing to watch

chipotle go from kind of being a phenom ten years ago to now almost as ubiquitous as taco bell and about perhaps to be more so like you said that it's de-throned the champ nicole, thanks for being me. always appreciate it. >> coming up, retail also seems to be stabilizing. in fact, it's outperforming tech over the past two months we're going to look at who is winning iseath sson and why one analyst says bet ony

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stay with us welcome back to "the exchaefng. let's get a check on the markets right now where they have been mixed today broadly speaking the dow is up 107 points at the moment the s&p up 7 and the nasdaq, which has been the lagard, down 10 concerns about big tech regulation in particular we'll talk more about that next hour on "power lunch." checking in on the sectors meantime, utilities, energies, financials and materials leading the way. that's kind of a strange basket, but the kind of basket we've been seeing more of this week with energy financial and materials especially remaining up there on the flip side it's communications services, consumer discretionary those down half a percent and all of the tech-heavy segments have been struggling really since early september. here are some of the individual movers this hour negative headlines pushing shares of boeing lower

american airlines will delay 737 max 1 pilot training starting in november boeing is down almost 3% and boeing also cut its forecast for new aircraft demand today saying it expects the pandemic to hurt sales for more than a decade also watching shares of sonos and logitech and apple has stopped selling wireless speakers and head phones from other companies ahead of its own product launches, and apple just announced in the past hour or so that its next product event will be held on october 13th when it's expected to introduce the any 5g iphones and perhaps some other in equipment here and shares of seaworld are gaining from an outperform to neutral from credit suisse due to an sooner than completed epic version in orlando and a possible reopening in florida. seaworld up nearly 10% today and let's get to sue herera for our cnbc news update. >> hello, good to see you.

the fda is telling developers that it wants to see at least two months of safety data before it will authorize emergency use of a covid-19 vaccine. that would delay the availability of a vaccine until after the november election. the white house is reportedly trying to block the fda from formally mandating that two-month wait period. ahead of tomorrow's vice presidential debate in utah both mike pence and kamala harris have again tested negative for covid-19 a plexiglass shield will be on stage in between the two candidates an industry group says u.s. airlines will burn through $77 billion in cash in the last half of this year that works out to about $3 up,000 a minute and as bad as that is, it's lower than the burn rate this spring. and a federal judge is clearing the way for at least 80,000 covid relief checks totaling more than $100 million to be sent by the irs to incarcerated

people across the country. you are up to date, kempt i'll send it back to you. >> all right sue. thank you very much. sue herera let's talk about housing and demand through the roof and homes in tight supplies. as a result home builders stocks have been on a irat all. take a look at the home builder etf. biggest giants by poulty andy will far hitting an all-time high today and construction materials are going strong martin marietta, sullivan materials, both up almost 20% in just the past month and a huge jump in august home prices is showing just how hot this market is right now, but can it last? for more let's bring in diana olick. diana? >> reporter: we're now seeing home values rise as the fastest pace in two years, prices dropping 5.9% and up more than 1% monthly that may not sound a lot but the

numbers from core logic use in small fractions, not full percentage jumps a year ago the increase was barely 5% annually and price gains up even higher, up close to 9% at the entry level of the market so why are they so hot? too much demand and not enough supply with inventory down 17% year over year the stay-at-home culture has consumers looking to upsize and get outdoors. that's bigger suburban homes with backyards some of the hottest cities include phoenix with prices up nearly 10%, denver and right here in d.c. the new york metropolitan area saw prices fall but it was in the minority top states include idaho, arizona and maine. core logic economists are forecasting that prices will cool over the coming year as unemployment takes its toll on various markets especially those with entertainment-based economies like miami and las vegas. >> you kind of answered my question, diana, because that's the big thing is, you know, is this all just a one-time, you

know, flight of demand that is up is it the flip side of the coin of low interest rates, and if that sticks around for some time, then maybe high prices can, too? >> reporter: well, i've got to tell you low interest rates are not new. they have been around for long types. several months, new record lows, and while that does give buyers more purchasing power prices are now up so high that it's really negating the savings that you're seeing from the low mortgage rate so it started but it fueled those prices and at some point you'll hit an affordability wall and especially in some of the very hottest cities. >> yeah. it's ironic. it's one of the ways the fed is trying to stimulate, you know, by helping are the rates in the housing market but the demand is almost overwhelming even those efforts. diana, thank you we appreciate it diana olick with the housing check for us coming up, preen last week's presidential debate and the covid diagnosis americans have

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welcome back america's focus on president trump's covid infection will raise concerns that china will capitalize on the opportunity to advance its own global agenda. we just learned that the joint chiefs and other military leaders are also now self-karen teenage. in an op-ed atlanta council ceo and contributor fred kemp says the president's diagnosis is providing china the opportunity to make strategic gains. fred joins me now to discuss and, yeah, i mean, what do you make of this headline as well about some military leaders now having to self-quarantine? obviously the face-off with china that you're speaking about is not going to take place over the next few weeks, but it just feels like this adds insult to injury here? >> yeah. i think there are two schools of thought. one of them is that china or russia or any adversary or competitor might use this period of time of american distraction which we were already distracted by our elections, but covid-19 and economic recession and then covid hitting had the president

even a higher distraction and other people, joint chiefs and others does that mean they would take military action towards taiwan to end its independence building on their gains in hong kong? i think that's less likely i think more likely they would see this as a breathing space to push their agenda even more to be the premiere global leader. they are doing that by tightening control of the private sector which currently has 60% of their gdp, 80% of their employment, but they are setting tighter rules on how private companies can operate, and they are also nationalizing. they are going to try to close the technology gaps with the united states that remain, particularly in semiconductors they are actually looking at embargo lists as sort of a focus list of where they have to build out, and then on top of that i think one of the things for your viewers to watch is development of the r & b as an international currency and particularly accelerating work towards

digital currency so there's a lot going on and they feel they can move ahead more quickly with a distracted united states. >> and there's so many different angles to this, fred i mean, you know, "the wall street journal" had this kind of deep dive into how china's tried to influence the united nations through various campaigns to put their people in the head of different committees and that outcome. there's a politico story today about how a german official tried to conceal some of their relations with china so as not to dissuade the chinese from doing more business there. you know, in some ways it feels like china is winning already. you know, yes, of course, president trump talks toughly about the situation. to some extent vice president biden does, too, but what would you want to hear how the of one of these debates, for example, as it relates to how to really face this threat >> there is absolutely no doubt that the trump administration has done us a favor by

sharpening our focus on the debate more entirely, but i think the real debate is how do you do this? how could we get anywhere further without our allies in asia, without our allies in europe being on the same page and coordinating our policies with them? and that's what vice president biden says he would do a lot better, but you also have a situation where more than 100 of the world's countries have china as their leading trading company, including north korea, uae and saudi arabia while only 57 have the u.s. as their lead trading partner. the question is are we at a tipping point of china being the premiere leader or can the west and democracies get their act back after the election i respective of who wins and create a little bit more balance and give democracies a little more momentum again? >> how far, fred, are we from the scenario in which china can basically tell american tech giants, for example, what to do?

i mean, it reminds me of comments recently by netflix where they were faced with a choice of doing business in the country years ago, and they basically couldn't and they said we'll live without it, and we have avoided a lot of issues as a result some of the big companies as we will have just had to avoid it all together, but, you know, is there a situation in which china is the one calling the shots here, and if so what does that mean >> think of yourself as the front end of a generational struggle, a new cold war perhaps but it's a different situation because our economies are so much more integrated than the soviet union and u.s. has ever been, so what you need to do is you need to set rules of the road u.s. companies have a lot to lose if they lose access to the chinese market we have a lot to lose if all of our technology and ip goes to china and we become a technological second fiddle, so how do we actually set rules of the road where we figure out how

to compete with each other where we have to compete and will compete and collaborate on climate and other things we're not there. not having those kinds of conversations can and whoever is president is going to have to find their way there, but the issue really is allies if but go to -- you're right china can have that kind of leverage on its own. if you u.s. comes with its allies in asia and europe then it won't have that kind of leverage >> all right fred, thank you, sir good to get your perspective here with so many at stake fred kempe with the atlantic council on the u.s./china face-off. u.s. indices mixed today u.s. indices mixed today up next, one of thoney aside for them, so...change in plans. alright, let's see what we can adjust. ♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. okay.

mom, are you painting again? you could sell these. lemme guess, change in plans? at fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. financial advisers,y this was an unexpected bill not covered by my health insurance.

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investors have rotated to more traditional safety plays the tech sector is down slightly in the past month while the utility sector is a 4.5% leading the way within that group duke energy is up 12% in the past month and paying investors a yield of about 4%. american electric also an outperformer, up 10% with a 3.2% dividend yield and con edison seeing a gain over the past month with a yield of 3.8% compare that to the performance of some of the big-cap tech names. microsoft down 2% and apple off by 5% and amazon down 4.5% during the past month even though some say that they are the new utilities. why the rotation away from the high-flying tech sector, and what does it tell us about the tech sector? for answers we want to bring in the principal at california financial advisers and ranked number nine on the second annual cnbc top financial adviser 100 list congrats and welcome >> thank you thanks for having me this isn't as fun as being with

you in the studio, but thanks for having me, kelly >> i know. we'll accept it in the meantime. >> yeah. >> let's just start with how investors should be positioned for 2020 overall i know you guys really focus on no-load mutual funds, trying to kind of stay defensive i mean, we hear a lot of these same themes coming up, but what would be kind of your number one piece of advice for investors, especially as we head into the election or the election itself? >> kelly, i would say the number one advice i would have for investors right now is to stay away from what i call the anxiety rotation we have been living in 2020 with just massive anxiety around everything, and i feel investors tend to often want to move their portfolios around and move from sector to sector and try to market time as we saw in and out of the market in march i'm seeing folks trying to see if they want to buy trump or do

they want to buy biden that's not what they should be doing right now. in the next 60 days, is look at your portfolio right now and say, okay, is my portfolio ready today? have i pruned what i need to prune? do i have a portfolio that's red for the long term? if you believe in the long term viability, you should not be doing this anxiety rotation. presidents do not drive the stock market biden is not going to drive the stock market trump is not going to drive the stock market what drives the stock market is stimulus packages,low interest rates, economic fundamentals, that's what drives the stock market so if we can take away the political noise hand have investors really focus on hunkering down over the next few weeks and ignore that noise, they will get through this time. >> yeah. let me, michelle, ask you, on kind of a totally different note but since you are out there in california and deal with a lot

of high net worth clients and that sort of thing what is the state of business out there? we've heard of a lot of people leaving the state for a combination of differentreason from the tax climate to what's happened with the wildfires this year and covid in general and you name it. what are you experiencing in your own practice? >> yeah. as someone who lost a home in the wildfires a few years ago, it has been a very sensitive last month here in can we eve been living kind of in a smokey land and very scary and -- and many of my clients are talking to me about what other options are. what do taxes look like in different states where can i save money and can i capitalize on the great prices of homes and the housing market in the bay area is exceptional right now and so people are really looking at their financial plans and saying can i live somewhere else and be

financially be even better we at california financial advisers are not moving, but we are -- you know, it's been a very difficult time here the last few years to watch what's gone on with these wildfires and situations, yeah. >> yeah. >> and i know that makes people value your advice weighing all of those issues against the stock and sometimes it feels like the stock portfolio is the last thing people want to worry about. >> michelle, good to see you. >> thanks, kelly bye-bye. >> congrats again and head to cnbc.com to see the complete 2020 cnbc financial adviser 100 list always a good topic to explore don't miss the cnbc fa summit which brings together the country's top advisory firms cnbc.com/fasummit. learn more and register for that come up on october 20th. still ahead here on "the exchange," it's the retail recovery that sold out this

summer, but it's back on, according to one analyst he'll join us to discuss the areas that soared in september and revealy y py

couple welcome back the etf tracking retail, the xrt have doubled off the year's lows despite ending with a week back to selling season, retails appeared to have stabilized. joining me is ike boruchow it's amazing that that was afternoon the expiration of all the covid relief what do you make of it >> thanks for having me. our group was a big lagger early in the year when stores closed, made perfect sense but the group is rallying. it up 30% plus over the past

couple weeks there's a lot of concern around weak store volumes upon recovery, upon reopening there was big mackdowrkdowns ovr leftover inventory that was going to influence margins i think what's interesting over the past couple of weeks in september, since then we've seen the space showing real signs of material improvement on top of improved pricing, i think the back-to-school sales shifted and didn't completely disappear. you actually saw that come into september and away from august the weather is breaking, consumers are driving pent-up demand what i think is interesting consumers dollars have to go somewhere. people aren't traveling, aren't spending money on experiences, aren't eating out. tangible, soft line goods are coming back. they're all good news. >> it's surprising and it's encouraging to hear.

some of the companies that screen highest here for your september rankings are familiar names, lieu lululemonlululemon,. max has struggled without its log case the number one is deckers. is that an ugg play? >> it's more of a hoka, running shoe play, the side brand there. i agree with you that the buy/sell expectations are going up on these names. you mentioned tj the off pricers, we're bullish on those, burlington, t.j. and ross i also think beside the obvious, the off price athletic names, i think are interesting value creation names that exist in retail the two that are our favorite

are gap gps and l brands they've had great runs >> would you recommend -- it sounds like you would, for gap and l brand, two really tough stocks, is this a turning point? >> i think so. we think gap is very undervalued when you look at it on the sum of parts analysis. i think people get overly focused on the struggling gap and banana republic brands we look at old navy there and l brands, victoria secrets and bath and body works. we think the bath and body works undervalued and not getting the love it deserves and we think you'll see the up side next year >> what do you make of how the holiday season could shape up overall?

i think you're more bullish than mo most >> i think it's a great question and it's a question all investors are asking on the space. there's very little visibility in the holiday now it not what everybody wants to hear but it's the truth. there's so much uncertainty, where is the volume going to come from, what's the election going to look like are stores going to potentially reshut because of covid spaces spiking? that's why we're trying to say to people and our investors to stay selective, stay balanced, have a basket of winners long term, which is the nikes and also have the value names on the other side of that >> ike, thanks so much for joining us with all of your data and a different read on what's goinong out there we appreciate it

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welcome to "power lunch. i'm kelly evans. here health insurance wh here's what we have on tap