tv Fast Money CNBC October 6, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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hours. we saw the gut reaction was to sell we will find out how much the market was depending on that stimulus coming before the election, particularly in some of the cyclical groups which had been working well lately >> that's the test the pattern has been when we have doubts about the strength of the recovery and whether we get stimulus, generally it is the growth stocks, but that wasn't the case today. they were on sale all day. >> thanks for watching this is fast money. we begin with two major market moving stories out of washington stocks plunge when president trump pulls stimulus talks until
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after the election >> we start off with the stimulus shocker that sank stocks >> melissa, the president announced this on twitter saying that he had made a generous offer, but that house speaker nancy pelosi was not negotiating in good faith. he wrote - >> trump had a call with the treasury secretary and the top republicans in the house and senate to talk about another relief package mnuchin and pelosi were to get on the phone to hash out a deal, but clearly that has been upended. pelosi was in the middle of a call with her caucus when it came out
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i am told that privately she responded by questioning the president's mental health and suggested that it may be impairing his thinking what she said was -- melissa, pelosi and ma knnuchind a phone call at 3:30 >> was there any indication she what give in >> i don't think she was willing to do that >> a shocker out of d.c. this afternoon. that had an immediate impact on stocks which saw stocks immediately reversed i think brian was the only guy on the desk who said that is the
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biggest risk to the market and here we are. >> i am glad you mention that because i was going to bring up brian. it doesn't matter what i think one of the things i have said for a while is president trump will use this to his advantage i do think it's some sort of political ploy i am not certain how it will play out if he forces the democrats hands, that's a feather in his hat. and if they say wait, you will get a stimulus bill in my second term first year. >> he wins either way. he understands the ramifications to the stock market. with all of that said, i think they will been trying to tell
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you something for a while. this level in the s & p is a pivot level. >> this is on the same day where the strongest appeal to date saying the economy recovery will be faster with them working together the market will look through this and say this was some sort of political theater and there will still be a deal or do we have to put some sort of discount in assuming there is no stimulus coming? >> i believe the market still believes we will get stimulus at some point it's just a matter of when the trading was unusual because you saw yield and bank sell-off. but i think looking past today you need investors to believe we have this durable economic recovery to rotate into
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sustainable value. i think saying that the unemployment rate is closer to 11%. if you look at spending and income data, spending is up, but income is down because savings is drawn down. will this be filled by additional stimulus or left to heal on its own. if it is the latter, it will take longer. the sixth triy to go from growt to value probably rotates. >> dan, what is your take? >> yesterday there was a lot of commentary on why we had such a sharp rally higher a lot of polls said the biden was leading. and that there would be a less
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contested election and an easy path to stimulus the window is short when you think about where lawmakers will be about passing new stimulus. i don't think this works to the president's favor in the next few weeks. but last week when you look at the continuing claims, the disappointment in nonfarm payrolls friday and think about how much time has elapsed since we have had this expanded unemployment, the consumer is hurting, on the bottom part of the k-recovery to me i thinit puts off the recovery the 11% unemployment we have been talking about structurally high unemployment, that's the thing that fiscal stimulus will have to fix. it will take a longer. this will slow the recovery.
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>> main street doesn't get any help at this point let's follow the trajectory out in terms of impact businesses may face more bankruptcy without getting more help consumers may further pullback spending how do we play the market in terms of sectors >> you had a chance to see today where the impact of loss of stimulus and what that means you saw it in the energy sector which over the last couple of days you got a sense that you . you could see it in banks. but ultimately, i think we have seen some rotation into value. that is the transports that have been running for a long time and i think some of the industrials. while the market wants politicians to finish what they started, you have a case where you will get stimulus at some
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point. you are going to get an infrastructure bill. so for the market to completely dislocate, i don't see it happening. you can make an argument despite strength over the last couple days, today's close, a lot of leadership is still struggling and is not going to necessarily get you the answer certainly with the news out of washington which i know we will discuss, i think the parts of the market over the last three or four weeks, it will perform >> i am raising my hand with my question with the assumption we get some stimulus after the election, is that sometime in january or february, and what happens now in the months now when consumers are not getting any sort of supplemental help and there are
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perhaps more furloughs as industries decide we can't go on like this. >> you don't paint a particularly rosy picture. i think the powers that be understand that and are willing to play that game. this to me is about setting up for the election how can this administration paint themselves in the most favorable way and be the knight in shining armou armor that sav day. maybe it was a fly by night decision pulled by a fit of rage but i think president trump understands that the stock
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market is his gauge and is aware that today this was dell tearets and i think he will come up with something. >> i think when you are losing this badly and trying to get re-elected, how not throwing a lifeline to the citizens of our country in the worst economic crisis in 100 years. i don't see how that works to his benefit. come vote for me and i will help you in a few months. there are 20 million americans out of work and is growing each week if you look to those claims to me this is bad politics the senate never wanted to do any sort of these fiscal deals i don't think the president has his wits about him at the moment at the end of the day it's an act of political terrorism going on this week in my opinion >> i totally get it and understand why you would think that i would push back and say i really do believe he is trying
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to force the other side's hand and will try to emerge victorious you have seen him do it before where he says look what i have done for you my steadfast resolve got you a better deal. vote for me and we have four more years of winning. i am not suggesting it's right or wrong, but i think this is the way it plays out >> tim with your hand raised, go ahead. >> rather than call out, i politely raised my hand. to me, ultimate lly, bad news ultimately led to the market going higher i think this is another case of that dan is driving a political analysis and assessing what the president has done in the past, it has probably left him nothing
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but an opportunity to win. i see this setting up anxiety where the market climbs the wall of worry we have been doing this for two years. we have had a chance to see where stimulus will be most focused. i think investors need to keep an eye on the trades i wouldn't get too far away. whether we get it now or in the future, i think it is working. >> to the other big story. >> the house sub committee on antitrust releases its long awaited worth on amazon, apple and google it finds that each yields a unique type of monopoly power. counsels for the subcommittee
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said e-mails they received from the executives were documents that proved their case and it wasn't just customers outraged over this behavior, but businesses also operating on some of these platforms calling it civil war they recommend -- it would take an act of congress to implement any of this and bipartisan support amazon is the only one who has posted any response to this 450-page report, and they say that it was base it had on fallacy and that it can only be the result of anti- -- behavior
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is wrong >> i don't know if you had a chance to thumb through that 450-page report, but is there anything in this thatwill help stocks stocks seem to shrug this off. >> no, i haven't had a chance to look at the 450 pages. google is the big tech stock that has most underperformed in terms of stock picks so there is something here i think google remains probably the greatest regulatory risk for a variety of reasons i doubt it will be broken up i am not surprised this report comes out. i watched all five hours and it
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was a bipartisan critique. so i am not surprised at all this handicaps large acquisitions by any of these companies. i think a spinoff is ex-troemtr unlikely, but you will have more scrutiny this has been building up for years. >> mark, this is dan did the feds wait too long are these companies too big? they are north of a billion. facebook a little below that, but when you think about the power these companies have, the amount of people they employ, did they wait too long will they be able to get anything with teeth? >> i think they will i think they will be able to impact these companies this pitch you are making about they waited too long and people
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go back to the facebook acquisition of instagram, when they bought that -- and it surprised even their own shareholders -- it was -- a 30-year revenue. nobody could have made that kind of call. so looking back saying we should have stop those, you can't look at that today. you had to look at the facts at the time i am talking about google, amazon, none of them at the time were antitrust whether they have been innovative enough to build up more assets? absolutely that's what facebook has done. i don't think you can unwind those deals and i think it would be bad for business. >> this report says that a player shouldn't control the
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market in which they compete that seems to report to amazon being a seller of its own goods in the marketplace it operates if amazon could not sell its own goods on the amazon site, what would that do to the company >> that would be fundamentally negative google and amazon run their marketplaces and compete the one you think about is amazon they report what percentage of their unit sales are done by third party sales. that has risen it used to be 20% and now it's 60%. so amazon has seen its share go from first party to third party. you should think about that, as to whether amazon is tilting the playing field.
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one last thing to keep in mind these companies have created an enormous ecosystem for small businesses sometimes that's lost. back 20 years internet undermined small businesses. today is dramatically difference many of small businesses survive and thrive because they can advertise on facebook and amazon >> this may be a lifeline for these businesses thank you, mark. what do you think the impact to be it was clear that it would take an act of congress to enact any changes suggested by this report >> it's something that's been around for a long time i think it's a slow burn versus immediate risk i think it's hard to make a
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clear portfolio decision about what to buy and sell today based on this. i think it's too difficult by my calculations, i think a company like apple might be the least vulnerable there are cat lists. 38% of iphones are in the window of upgrade it's the top income bracket where confidence is rising the most i think 19 points. in that regard, it's those consumers that will probably continue to buy products like apple. it is a headwind to the space given price perfection that's my take for now >> the last point about amazon operating the marketplace in
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which it competes. doesn't that happen a lot? like walmart or target if that is an argument that holds up and could be applied to other industries, i think you could go many places in terms of targets. >> you could definitely go to walmart. people who are employing practice where they are competing on price and willing to operate on a price. walmart has pushed people around on price forever that was their advantage amazon so the to do that at the end of the day if i am investing with amazon or apple, i think the valuations in the mega tech space are challenging here >> it will be the most effective
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÷yyyy welcome back to "fast money. ge stock dropping today. agency saying that they violated reporting laws they fell 4% today, thestock down more than 40% on the year tim, you are in this one >> look, i think the story around ge's accounting and particularly in this insurance unit is having regulators have been looking at for a long time.
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the insurance business notably and effectively it sits inside the ge cap business. it sounds like the regulators are grappling with how broad do they want to go. in terms of pragmaticism, it may be more important to focus in here is this material for the stock impossible to know if you look at one of their business units, ge's issues are about free cash flow and about the balance sheet. those are things i don't change in the short to medium term. i can't speculate on the size of a fine, but that's what we are talking about. i think this is more egg in the face of what was one of the proudest conglomerates in our history burks we knew that that's in the price. the prois dictates there was a lot of misrepresentation of underlying accounting. >> yeah.
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here we are talking about the risk because of this unit. this is supposed to be a turn around story is this an investable turn around in your view? >> i continue to be patient with the stock. the good news is that it has shown good news around the lower level. we are in the six level now. it is hard to know how it plays out ultimately, but the stock trading down 40%, but 25 times next year's earning. maybe you look out a little further, look to 2022 or 2023 and the picture looks better i think with the stock down as much as it is and given that valuation, i wouldn't be excited about jumping in here? >> 5:.48 was the low in may
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it's judgment day for general electric i say that because over the last of the course 20 minutes tim has inserted about three different van halen titles >> i noticed his background. >> eddie van halen passed away today. >> here is a moment for eddie. all right. we have much more "fast money" straight ahead >> very cool >> here is what is coming up next >> airline stocks dropping today as hopes get dimmer. but some say they might be a
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return.y y welcome back airlines stocks tumbling as president trump says there will be no stimulus until after the election phil >> not a surprise that you would see stocks fall 2 1/2 to 4%. this is the news airlines were not looking for. they were hoping a stimulus bill would go through in some fashion. there has been bipartisan support for 25 billion in airline aid, guarantee employees
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through march. one stock in particular people will pay attention to is southwest airlines this morning they said if we don't get a payroll package, we have to consider a 10% price cut. flight attendants said huh-uh. >> i am confident we will get past this pandemic and be in a position to thrive but we have to conserve cash between now and then this is our largest cost opportunity that we have >> so here is what you are looking at, the airlines overall. they continue to lose tens of millions of dollars every day. 77 billion will be lost in the second half of this year worldwide by the airlines. i looked what the u.s. airlines are doing in the third quarter
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they are losing between 17 and 36 million a day they are expected not to break even until 2022. one other note with regard to the airlines and it has to do with boeing not surprisingly you are seeing fewer wide bodied planes needed. that's why they bring the outlook down by 11%. international demand will be weak for several years and they are not expecting a full passenger recovery until plalate 2023 this is not going to be a great quarter especially if you see weaker traffic during the holidays because of covid-19 nobody is expecting much for the first quarter of next year >> these airlines still have options. there is still a treasury loan
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they can draw on american did last week >> but that's for running the business, not for covering payroll. what we are talking about, the $25 billion, that is strictly to cover payroll, which would mean 32 thousand employees would not be furloughed. airlines have said if we don't have that aid, we will have to furlough >> so the loans cannot be used for payroll? >> they could, but they are using it for operations. they are getting as much liquidity lined up because they know they will have to ride this out longer than expected >> phil, thank you tim, the reaction of the airlines tell you they need this
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aid. as an investor do you say they don't get this and i take off this much market cap from these airlines >> i don't think so. again, isn't part of this airlines that are saying he would don't want to have to lay people off and cut costs and stop our burn. this is an issue where airlines have a dose of responsibility. maybe the government doing somebody does. obviously very painful to fire people or furlough people. but if you have seen how quickly some of them have been able to cut their expenses and the necessity to do that two days ago when people were excited about the impact of what some of the antiviral drugs with doing, whether it was the president's recovery airlines were charts we can buy. it doesn't change overnight. we have known about their fiscal position for three months.
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we have known about these discussions with the government. they are important, but there are a number of airlines ready to do what they need to do would prefer not to do the socially painful thing but as an investor in airlines, it is not like everybody wants some but a lot of people say not at these levels boeing has ultimately -- 40% of their business in defense and global services is another 20% i think investors need to look at the full picture. delta will have money through 2021 >> i am going to pull back the curtain. every day we have a call where we talk to the traders and see what is on their mind. on today's call there was a would you rather
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would you rather boeing or the airlines dan, what was your answer? >> mine was the airlines, but not all the airlines when you think about the domestic carriers, the ones that don't rely on business travel as much i expect that will snap back faster when you think about how much cash they have on their balance sheet, it's hard to listen to their ceo talk about that, that they are willing to cut employees loose when they have lots of avenues to keep those employees around to me southwest, jetblue, i think they are in decent shape but american is not one you would want to play in. and united, you have to be in it for the long haul.
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>> i would rather the airlines as well. boeing has issues. you wonder if five years from now when i am 83 and doing fast money, if we are talking about boeing the same way we talked about ge earlier today i totally get it but the mmcicoeral airspace looks challenged to say the least. >> coming up, it has been volatile for foody irly pry 4
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order one during the crisis, not only is there extreme back order, but there is huge demand. these secular trend. not just people moving out of cities to urban centers, but people fixing up their homes building materials i think are a more interesting trade and have more room to run that's why i look at whirlpool but this is a company nine or ten or 11 times. it looks interesting finally the chart. it's breaking out after a five-year chart where we have gone to the right two or three years after consolidating on a
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brokeout this stock is starting to push through those all time highs because it's part of the home builders etf, it is seeing investment it probably would not have seen. >> time for questions. the general has one. >> i am with tim on this but i do have one question in terms of a possibly vulnerability. people were getting more money in their checks and buying appliances, how big is this to the stimulus package getting passed >> if you look at lowes and best buy, you could make an argument they are a recipient of stimulus
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money. >> are you buying or selling on his pitch on whirlpool >> it is all about the appliances >> i love our white boards i am with him. the stock has doubled since the march low. look at earnings on october 21 >> dan >> sold to tim guy, it hasn't doubled since the march lows it is up 200% since the march lows tim's argument makes sense the stimulus argument is a big one. you had an opportunity to buy this at the low 160s that's where you reload. i don't think you buy it at 200s >> i like white boards too, but i thought we had black boards at the nascar jeff mills >> i tipped my hand here a little bit, but i vote yes i agree with tim
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the chart looks good, looks like it's heading back to the 2015 highs. they did a good job cutting costs. i think they probably continue to be disciplined there. i like it. >> he had a nice drawing of a drying and refrigerator, too >> head on to our twitter poll tell us if you are buying or selling on tim's fas else that's good to know. if you have medicare you may be able to get more benefits without paying more through a medicare advantage plan. call now tot pik request this free guide. learn about plans that could give you more benefits from humana. a company with nearly 60 years of experience in the healthcare industry. humana offers a wide range of all in one medicare advantage pl an
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today we present a purple innovation, a company similar to the last discussion, whirlpool it has been a beneficiary of this secular trend towards the home they have 300, 200 with 100 pending. it went from zero to about 660 million with just 3% in less than five years. based on the first innovation since 1992 which is when memory foam was introduced. there is great technology using injection moldings that are proprietary. they are in utah and have been effectively sold out since covid hit. this is a digitally company that has a wholesale we think extends
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3 to 5 years we believe the company in two years, based on demand and capacity that will hit the market in 2021 and 2022 will be doing 200 million plus and probably earning between 2 and 2.25 per share >> jeff, mattresses obviously is what they are focused on right now. you said they focus on comfort so is the hope that they will use this technology in other products or is mattresses their primary growth driver? >> the technology was founded in 1992 to relieve pressure sores from people in wheelchairs in the last two years people introduced pillows which is an
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ancilliary product to mattresses and seats. that ancillary bins went from 0 to 100 in less than two years. we think they will move into luxury automotive as perhaps first class seating among airlines the technology is applicable anywhere pressure responsiveness and comfort is desired >> bottom line, it's trading in the after hours session up 9%. where could this stock be in a year what are your forecasts? >> given the company is growing 50%, has visibility into 2021, 2022, basically, we could get to $55 within 12 to 18 months
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with ancilliary, we think it is $100 >> this stock is already up 267% over the past year tim, let's go to you does this company sound interesting to you, purple innovation >> it does these secular trends, we talk about the haves and have-nots of the post covid world, sometimes you don't talk about valuations that make sense. 50 plus for the next three years, that sounds interesting to me. coming up, hurricane delta coming up, hurricane delta rapidly intensifying as it ♪ "hmm's and ahh's" heard in-call.
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it could have major implications for crude oil. evacuations are under way. crude oil jumped traders are beginning this is the beginning of a bigger breakout >> we do see some unusual activity in the futures, but we are looking at the u.s. oil fund it isdesigned to track oil prices we saw two times the average erlu tre ov 6,000 traded at 35 cents >> thanks. >> thanks. tune in for that show friday at ♪
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vote is no but in honor of the late, great eddie van halen, we thought it would be appropriate to end with some van hey len 63% said no so that's pretty bad. >> i have a lot of time for toni braxton. >> tim >> you may as well jump into whirlpool. >> nathan? >> sirius xm, there were fears that he was going to run to spot fooi spotify. looks like they are going to keep him >> and this has been steady for
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