tv Options Action CNBC October 9, 2020 5:30pm-6:00pm EDT
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happy friday and options action here is what is on deck. >> tonight we are taking you to the other side of the globe in search of opportunity. >> there is every indication there is more to come. >> why japan is poised for a pop. then the next horse in the race for covid treatment. >> there is a lot of upside. >> tony shows you how to make best of eli lilly. >> what could be more fun than
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insurance? seriously. >> this is an interesting situation. >> it's capty vating wh-- captig when captain coe explains how. >> the chart master and mike say there is value to be found across the pacific what are you looking at in japan? >> before we get to the charts, what we know is year-to-date, the nikkei is virtually unchanged. first, taiwan versus korea so instead of using the taiwan
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index, we are using the ewt and ewy for south korea. and add in japan if i were to include the spy, it would look identical which is to say these are all in dollars so we have adjusted out for the currency that comparative chart is opportunity, japan lagging first, the ewt, i circled the prepandemic high, the plunge, we recovered to it and have broken out. the index has made new highs we know that now look at korea. next chart
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ewy. same circumstance. the prepandemic high, i have circled it, the plunge and we have recovered to it and broken out. the final chart, for japan i have circled the prepandemic high, but we have not yet broken out. the long trade here is ewz >> there is the trade. we are looking at japan using -- thanks, carter for that. mike, let's go to you. how do you execute that particular view? i was looking at ewuj which is the japan index etf. a couple of things to observe. one of the things to think about when noticing that japan hasn't kept pace with the s&p 500,
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japan doesn't have the same stocks that have lifted the sep. i sop sp. i am talking about tesla and amazon but it does include notable names. toyota, honda and sony is among them this is low volatility, but it is slightly elevated like many glob global, volatile because of the elections. so i was looking at the january 63 calls, about 65 cents and then selling the novembers against it for 20 cents.
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net-net you would be making about 45 cents per contract. but overall you will be spending less than 1% of the levels to make this bullish bet. if it goes to the price, it would incrows aboease to about , plus longer, with the rally, you would benefit from that, too >> tony, if you got in this situation where you wanted to be longer term, you have cheapened it up by selling some of those near dated calls is this a trade you agree with to make this kind of view? >> carter mentioned a few things mike mentioned this is slow and steady you see the ewj grinding higher and carter mentioned it is
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lagging behind other countries to me that speaks to the economic indicators we are looking at out of japan. they are slowly improving, but not strong in my estimation. fairly dominant with tech names. it has low exposure to sectors like energy and utilities. the fact it is lagging behind most of the other domestic equities, i think the upside is fairly limited while i like the structure to have the slow grind higher, i think i would adjust my strikes a little lower because my target prices aren't as high. i was looking at the 61 strike mike is risking less than 1% of the ets value to take his bullish bet, but you could lower
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it to 61, a smaller amount of risk, but a little less upside >> let's turn back to you, carter, as we look at the charts how exactly timewise do we expect this thesis to play out it could be a slow grind what would you be watching for signal wise about whether this accelerates or decelerates >> i said ewz, that's brazil we, of course, are talking about ewj. one can see it as a laggard, which it is. we are seeing bombed out value names, g.e., for instance. we are thinking that it is a
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laggard that will play catch-up. a breakout, we think you can get 6 to 8% if not more. >> mike, we will give you the last word. as you top it off, what is the real out of the case here. >> if you are playing for the breakout, it is 6 to 8 cents i am not necessarily showing the place i would be playing but we are not risking a lot of money, so i think it is right. >> the one to watch, the ewj that everyone is playing with. investors are getting more bullish on big pharma.
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and tony says there is one name in this group that could have healthy gains ahead. tony, which drug company are you looking at >> eli lilly antibody treatments have taken a back seat to vaccine news, but with president trump getting regeneron treatment, that is pushed back in the light and eli lilly pushed for that this week. i think both the regeneron and eli lilly drugs, these are monoantibody drugs these are for less severe cases and early on, similar to what president trump was seeing when he received this treatment it's important that these are not vaccines even though both have started
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clinical trials to see the efficacy using them as a preventive measure the efficacy has been fairly strong so far eli lilly has seen about 70% reduction in risk meaning the number of patients seeing hospitalizations compared to a control group is about 72% less. and for regeneron, down about 59%. so both have fairly strong trials at the moment it's important to look at this the optimism around it is the efficacy and the speed we could get fda approved for emergency use. but there is limited capacity. so that is a limiting function when you couple that with the chart, eli lilly has been underperforming the broader
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market the last few months but on this recent fda news, it has broken out and broken that down trend and we are starting to see performance when you couple that, what i am looking to use as a trade structure going out to december to buy myself a little bit of time and i am going to use a vertical spread -- i am going to december and spending about 8.70 for that december 155. i have a target price of about 170 to the upside. if they do break out in the short run, i would try to roll this up a little further into that 170, 190 level if we do get a breakout, up to that 170 target >> that's an interesting way to
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go about playing it and cheap e ens things up a bit. does tony's trade make sense is this the way you would play lilly? >> something people ought to focus on is what tony has chosen is in the money by about $2. when you think about decay and that's what you want to use when you are using a debit option is how much decay in this case you are spending $1.55 in premium, but the dekate only represents about $3.65 of that when we are trying to get payoffs on debit spreads here it is not as critical it proves probability of profit. the other thing is he has given himself time it's difficult to play short
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dated catalysts. if your thesis is alignment, this is a way to mitigate your downside risk because you are only spending 1.55 versus well over 100 to buy the stock. you can make the bullish bet playing off some of the items he outlined and have relatively good profit and relatively low decay. those are all attractive aspects of this. >> he pointed out the chart. it has gotten above where it should in terms of the overall longer trend lines do you believe the chart is do for more upside? >> one of the more compelling things on an immediate basis is if you look at the big three, merck, pfizer, lilly
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lilly is up 46% meaning the market is speaking, the collective wisdom, whether health care or generalists people are favoring lilly. that is impressive compared to others maybe it's because of covid or what have you. but what we do know is you want to go with the leader or a laggard. lilly is a leader in this case compared to merck and pfizer i like it. >> thanks. for everything options action, check out our website. ♪
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mike is here to right you a prescription for gains i am feeling punny today >> we are talking about part of the managed kerik sector -- care sector. i am going to throw a shout out to one of my former colleagues who was an analyst and was a huge fan of the company back then and since one reason you might love it is when you look at the consistent earnings growth. it has been spectacular over a lengthy period of time this season is extraordinary --
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it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart. choose the app that fits your investing style. ♪ but before we sign i gotta ask... sure, anything. we searched you online and maybe you can explain this?
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so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks you're ierested in. now this is what i'm talking about. yeah, it'll free up more time for your... uh, true crime shows? british baking competitions. hm. didn't peg you for a crumpet guy. focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. ♪ welcome back a look back at one of our own open trades. a few weeks back tony came down with a case of cat scratched fever. >> look at caterpillar breaking out above that 150 level recently came back to retest that i think this has a potential for higher especially if you cover this is
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a stock trading at stable dividends. this is the type of stock that i'm looking to play defense in this type of weaker market i am going out to the october, december, 155, 160 call diagonal i am going out to december for that 155 call and selling an october 160 call against it. net-net i am paying about 7.15 for this call diagonal >> tony, what have you done with the trade in the meantime? >> this is the diagonal that has worked out fairly perfectly. you can take about 85% gains, so i would take my profits and run. >> coming up next, final call. i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit
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your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. well except now you're binge learning. see how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from td ameritrade. visit tdameritrade.com/learn ♪ this was the theater i came to quite often. ♪ the support we've had over the last few months has been amazing. i have a soft spot for local places. it's not just a work environment. everyone here is family. gonna go ahead and support him, get my hair cut, leave a big tip. if we focus on our local communities, we can find a way to get through this together. thank you. ♪
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carter, to you -- >> the nikkei 500 is making all time highs ewj. >> tony? >> approval of eli llyil's i promise to help you find a bull market. "mad money" starts now hey, i am cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to "cramer." i am just trying to make thank you some money call me 1800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. to stimulate or not to stimulate. that's the question. evy
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