and we're just 24 hours from major market events including an apple product launch and amazon megasale and the kick off of earning season everything you need to know is straight ahead, monday october 12th, 2020 and squawk box begins right now. good monday morning, everybody. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc the u.s. equity futures this hour, take a look at things. it's up by 23 points s&p is up and the nasdaq up by 122. this is coming after a strong week for the markets up by about 3% just for the last week nasdaq was up for the week too it was up by 1.something percent

but you were talking about the dow being in positive territory for the first time since september 2nd. stocks in china reopened after a week long public holiday they both jumped by more than 2% the shanghai composite was up by 2.6% let's take a look at where things stand right now in europe where there is some trading taking place you can see the markets are open there and there's a bit of a mixed picture. it's actually a little bit higher ftse 100 is right around the flat line, andrew. >> hey, becky. we've got so much going on this morning. we've got -- this is squawk planner, two major tech events first amazon sales day it begins after it was postponed, if you remember, back in july. now running two days, starting at midnight tonight eastern time so watch out for that. i've already scheduled it and

then apple holding the big event tomorrow the launch event expected to unveil the new iphone. everybody looking for the new 5-g iphone it will include the first major exterior redesign since 2017 and we'll have a lot more on that as well on the data front, the latest inflation numbers. cpi tomorrow and cpi wednesday jobless claims and prices due on thursday and retail sales for september are due on friday and then tomorrow kicks off a huge earnings season ahead. we'll hear from the big bank as you know j and j and also two major airlines and a busy week for politics the supreme court confirmation hearing for amy coney barrett begins today and president trump saying he is planning to head to florida for campaign rally his first time back on the campaign trail since testing positive for covid-19. the president's doctor saying

over the weekend in a memo, on saturday, that he's no longer considered a transmission risk to others. so a lot, a lot, a lot going on this morning >> kind of fits with the par par for the course with what we have seen lately house democrats and senate republicans express opposition to president trump's latest stimulus offer over the weekend. the new offer is $1.8 trillion that's nearly double the original proposal from republicans from late summer but about $400 billion short of the bill passed by the house democrats. speaking yesterday on cnn, white house economic adviser larry kudlow said if we could get this thing settled on the democrat side, we will get it settled on the republican side. we'll hear from republican senator kevin cramer he will be joining us coming up at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. joe. >> thanks, becky a lot of sports yesterday. this is one aspect of it the los angeles lakers leaving the nba bubble with a trophy

the lakers won the 2020 nba championship, last night's game six over the miami heat. it's the team's first title since 2010 and the 17th total championship which ties the celtics for the most of any team and lebron james became the fourth player in history to win a championship now with three different teams. later this hour we're going to talk about the lackluster tv ratings for the sports restart and what's been keeping viewers from tuning in it was a plethora yesterday of things to watch. we had the rays, the tampa bay rays playing houston i lost money there but i did make a little on the first, because houston scored first i managed to lose money, even betting on the lakers. >> how did you do that >> because i had the over. the over was stupid. >> have you not learned your lesson yet dummy. >> when you bet $5 and you pick the team to win --

>> yeah, but don't do the over-under. >> then if you bet on the lakers you put $5 down you could win $8 so if you bet on the over -- so the last game, the last game a couple of days ago they, i mean, it was like 230 points or something. last night i'm like -- and i watched the first -- i guess i watched about the first half and it's like, okay, the lakers defense, they really ramped it up and it's like, you guys were -- you were so good you know, jimmy butler, what's going on, and then last night the lakers just really smotherred them. i don't think they got to 200 points, much less 215. i'm okay i did okay with what else -- oh. i'm going to sound like a total addict i did have money on who would score first and the lakers, they win the tip almost every single time andrew doesn't want to hear any of this. he's so bored already. anyway, they win the tip -- they

win the tip the first time a lot of times they throw a clunker up but this time perfect. that was okay. anyway, the nobel prize, even though there isn't one for economic, it's different but they still give one out. it's been awarded to a couple of m.i.t. guys. anyway, for improvements and inventions of new auction formats. it's not what you think, it's to try to help inequality it's different the committee said the discoveries benefits sellers, buyers and taxpayers around the world in terms of economic activity i don't know how you pick something in economics every year that's worthy, really, of the nobel prize. it seems hard. i don't know i'm not sure how high the bar is at this point. >> it goes back a lot of years.

>> it's a dismal sign anyway, right? what's that? >> it's interesting, though. it's interesting >> it is. >> an awful lot of talking about economics. well, it's interesting in how it's going to move the world, it's behavioral sciences sometimes. >> yeah. >> it's just weird that 180 degree viewpoints can both win a nobel prize because neither one of them are right or wrong ever. >> yeah, liberal arts. >> right >> right >> all right guys, when we come back, a warning from the ceo of regeneron taking on cbss face the nation he says there's not enough of the experimental antibody cocktail that president trump received to treat the many americans that may need it dr. scott gotlieb will weigh in next this is decision tech.

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welcome back to squawk box this morning president trump announced he has immunity from covid-19 following a battle with the virus the past week we want to bring in our guest this morning, former fda commissioner and cnbc contributor and serves on the

board of alumina and pfizer. we got to talk about the president's new covid-free diagnosis and also regeneron and testing news that came up over the weekend. lest start with the president, though he does plan to get back on the campaign trail is that advisable? >> it depends on how he's feeling. it really comes down to his health with respect to whether or not he's contagious, he's probably not. he's more than ten days out from the on set of symptoms he's been fever free for well more than 24 hours they did an interesting test which is a test for an intermediate form of the viral genetic material that you only get typically when the virus is replicating. so they're giving that out to suggest that the virus is no longer replicating it's not live virus.

he will continue to shed virus for a long period of time. but what they're shedding typically is dead virus. virus that can't infect other individuals. it's something that they might have pulled that they would have pulled that on saturday and you wouldn't get that back maybe until monday and tuesday so they might well have done that test. you have to do it in a specialized lab but given that it's the president of the united states, they might have done that test. >> also want to talk to you about regeneron. one of the drugs he took that he argued really turned his own situation around regeneron and how quickly regeneron is going to be available at mass, at scale. saying it's not going to be at scale for quite sometime what has to happen or what could happen to actually get a drug like that or the eli lily drug

at scale. >> they have gone to great lengths to try to free up manufacturing to reduce these drugs to a significant scale regeneron will have 300,000. they freed up their domestic manufacturing facilities move some of the products here in the u.s. outside of the u.s. to get the extra production capacity they're both biologic products so they'll burn down perhaps some of their products as they transition their products out of the u.s. facilities in european facilities to free up that capacity so it was an extraordinary effort on the part of both companies. what would have had to happen is in april and may and we talked about on this show many times, they need to step in and pay existing manufacturers to also move their products out there to free up that capacity. that never happened and so we're only dependent upon the manufacturing capacity that

regeneron and eli lily were not able to free up. just to treat the population, the currently indicated population of high risk individuals based on the current infection rate so we know infection rates are going to go up you'd like to expand use of these products if demonstrated face and effective we will have to ration these drugs. >> so you're, but your estimate is 400,000 a month and the question is do you see a date at which they'll be producing 400,000 a month? i haven't heard any numbers that even come close to that. >> so they'll produce 1.3 million between now and the end of the year between them so they'll fall short probably of that. remember my estimates are based on the current epidemic. the epidemic is increasing in this country if we end up heading a lot more cases heading into the fall and the winter, which i fear we

will, there will be supply c constrain constraints. treating those above 65 and those with conditions that put them at a bad outcome, they wouldn't have enough there's no way to have enough. we would have had to make these decisions in april and may there were a lot of discussions. it just didn't happen. whatever we do now is going to sure up the supply for 2021 but we're locked in where we are it takes a long time to convert a manufacturing facility to produce a new biologic you have to leave a lot of lead time >> scott, there was some news over the weekend coming out of the world health organization where they were announcing that they tell governments they should not be using lock downs as their primary means of trying to deal with the virus that there had been too many problems from it and especially devastating for the most vulnerable communities and the

poorest communities. i saw it characterized as a flip flop what are your thoughts on this what do you think? >> i don't think it's a flip flop i think we were in a difficult position back in april and may because we didn't know where the virus had been spreading here in the united states. we didn't have any diagnostic tests deployed and we thought a lot of other cities would be devastated the way new york was and we implemented a stay at home order when we could have done it much more effectively. now we do have diagnostics deployed and i think we'll be able to fine tune our response much better as this epidemic starts to infect certain regions of the country but other regions of the country maybe aren't so effective and more targeted intervention like tracking and tracing can still work in a lot of parts of the country. so i think the idea that we're going to do a national stay at home order, even broad stay at home orders in direct cities it's just not going to happen. the political leadership on a

b bipartisan basis aren't going to support it i think it's sort of a strong man approach to the argument here because it's just not going to period hah. we're in a much better position to target our intervention you know, really, when history looks back on it i think that the critical failing, or one of them is going to be the fact that we were so blind to the spread in april and may and march because we had no diagnostics deployed, really in marchand april. >> doctor, you made a comment actually on our broadcast last week about howe well asia is doing and you made reference to the fact that they have about 1,000 cases across large parts of the area yet we're doing that every day and every week here. what do you think the d distinction is and i ask because you say you believe we can do a lot more things that are targeted today and while we could do better than we could do before, we still seem so far away from what

others have done and done successfully without what appears to be lockdown >> well, they're doing testing and tracing very aggressively. probably more aggressively than we can because we're not going to surrender certain liberties you'll get tracked electronically in certain countries in asia if you don't get a test or you're in proximity of someone that has covid, you'll be tapped on the shoulder and called in for a test we could be doing a better job on both domains. we don't need to have their level of surveillance to have testing and tracing in place and we could be better of calling on selective action for people to wear masks on a more routine basis. just to give you a comparison, there were 12 cases overnight in a chinese city and they're going to test all 9 million residents of that city within probably less than a week probably three or four days they'll get that done so they'll manage to snuff out that outbreak we could never do that here. first of all, we don't have the capacity to do it and if we did

we'd never get anywhere near the compliance so that's what the countries are doing. i'm not saying that we need to go that far but we're a long way from even having some level of compliance around testing and tracing. >> finally over the weekend the israeli ambassador to india made a comment that they're working on a 30 second coronavirus detection test that's a breathalyzer that you blow into and it would be available for a very cheap price do you know anything about it? >> well, a lot of these breathalyzer tests, i've seen some of them, don't do direct detection of the virus. they're measuring your lung pucks a function i'm skeptical that you'll be able to detect those early in the course of the disease. i have not seen one. i'm not familiar with this particular test but i think

others that are not doing direct protection of virus, they're measuring lung function. >> it's great to see you i love seeing you sport the cnbc brand behind you. >> thanks for joining us. >> a quick programming note for everybody, if you haven't checked this out already, the news for shepherd smith tonight is a great time to do it they're going to have a very special guest. anthony fauci is going to join at 7:00 p.m. ete tasrnime this evening. >> up next, everything you need to know right after the break. for as little as $5, now anyone can own companies in the s&p 500, even if their shares cost more. at $5 a slice, you could own ten companies for $50 instead of paying thousands. all commission free online. schwab stock slices: an easy way to start investing or to give the gift of stock ownership.

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about 12 million taxpayers were unable to make this year's july 15th tax day deadline and asked for a 3 month extension to file their federal income tax returns. i'm done now i did it i'm done, but one of them, the final deadline is almost here. is this for me a cnbc senior personal finance correspondent? you didn't know that, did you? you figured that, though. >> i just thought this might be one that you would appreciate. you're not alone, though you know. >> it's 12 million. >> you're not alone. >> back in july, back in july or maybe before there were a lot of taxpayers that submitted a form requesting a extension to file and that gave them more time to submit their 2019 returns but on thursday their time is up. october 15th is the final deadline for taxpayers to submit

their 2019 individual income tax returns if they requested an individual extension small business owners with more complex returns, they're the ones asking for extensions and may have also caused significant filing delays for many taxpayers so now the official tax date already pushed back from april to july, well that july 15th date was also the deadline to file for an extension if you weren't ready to submit your return now it's time, failure to file your taxes on or by october 15th will definitely cost you you'll pay a penalty of 5% of the tax that you owe and that's charged each month or part of the month that the return is late and on the other hand, though, if you do a refund, there is no penalty on a return that would file late so if you're getting a refund and you file that return late, the good news is you won't have to pay a penalty but you're not going to get the refund for awhile. >> you know, sharon, it's not always -- i may be president of

procrastination, but it's not always the persons fault it's really not. during the pandemic, there were a lot of places generating the things that you need to file your taxes that were delayed too. there was no way it was happening by the filing date. >> tax preparers are completely overwhelmed and a lot of things came in late and a lot of people their financial situations changed. if they found out that they owed tax they didn't have the money to pay that and they may not have that money now. so it's important to figure out if you can do some type of payment plan figure out what plan would be best for you. >> we have to do it again, don't we we're not that far off

how can you avoid surprises in what has been a crazy year for everybody. a crazy year for everybody and everybody's financial situation is different than it was in 2019 so it's important to do a paycheck check up and i talk about this a lot it's simple tasks. go to the irs.gov website and fill out a with holding calculator to figure out if your having enough money taken out of your taxes, and if you're not then you need to adjust that and adjust your with holding also if you're getting unemployment benefits, know that they are taxable so make sure that you filled out form w 4v for voluntary with holding so that you're not slammed in april or next year with a big tax hit. so it's important to do some tax planning now there's a lot of stories on cnbc.com about tax planning and know now that paycheck check up is a check up you need to take. >> at the irs website. i don't even want to let them

know i'm out here. won't that leave them cookies or something? it's a red flag. >> no, it's not. >> irs.gov you're all done. you're good. >> hey, you know. >> why am i not surprised. congratulations. coming up, we're going to talk our risk factors for your money from this week's kick off of earnings season to the 2020 election now just 22 days away market watcher mark grant is going to join us next. as we head to break, here's a look at the biggest premarket gain see why grant has those crazy

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s&p strong as well it's a big week for earnings some of the banks tomorrow and big piece in the journal talking about and may give some support to the stock prices we have seen it seems so disconnected to the underlying economy and business and there's sectors that are doing pretty well, or better than people thought at this point. >> yeah. we have a guest right now who has some concerns about what might happen this month though

after a bumpy few months for the market, uncertainty around virus fears and stimulus the dow is now positive for the year for the first time since september 2nd. joining us to talk more about it is mark grant. he's chief global market strategist you're a bit worried about what may happen as we get closer to the election there could be a number of twists and turns that could really add a lot of volatility >> yeah. i am some what concerned i think the closer we get to the election the more the focus is going to be on the election and i think there could be surprises between here and there i don't trust the polls. i, youknow, it just is a very uncertain time for the next few weeks. and i think people should look both at their bond portfolios if

they have profits, and equities. i'd be taking some profits, taking some money off the table and just protecting yourself been around a very long time and i'm just cautious at this point in time. i've never seen an election like this in my lifetime and i think people have to, you know, be ready to deal with whatever is going to come. >> he's never seen an election like this in your lifetime because you think this one is a more stark comparison between the two. >> exactly right you know, generally, it's been one side is a little left and one side is a little right and now stark is probably an understatement there's just a tremendous division between what the two parties represent and the future of the country depending upon who's elected. in those circumstances it's good to be cautious. >> hey, mark, you've got an interesting theory about why

markets have been or equity markets i should say have been so resilient to this point you look around and say normally if there's concern, there should be a safe haven play and people would run into treasuries, in the bond market. that's not happening as much this time and you've been kind of surveying why you think that is why don't you explain. >> certainly we're at or just off historic low yields in the bond market. there are not only individual senior retirees and insurance companies and money managers and university endowments and pension plans that cannot take the yield right now in the bond markets. in other words, they're not making any money, not getting any return on the bond markets and so basically they're forced out of the bond markets, and they have been forced to the equities which is why equities have done as well as they have you've seen people vying for

appreciation plays to replace the bond market yields and i think that's what's going on here. >> is that your puppy? >> yes, that's my new 9 week old puppy. mr. tracker. >> he sounds like a sweetheart. >> he is >> he sounds adorable. >> sorry can't do much about him. >> i get it. it's babies, man they're all up at this hour. >> that's right. >> what happens if there's actually this move like you say where pensioners and some of the big bond players of pension funds that put money into the equity markets, what happens if there's added volatility and equities come down pretty sharply? how do you think that that would actually add to the chaos? >> it's going to hurt. all any kind of pension bond, municipal bond, pension bond, i have been saying to my institutional clients which are

basically to protect themselves and if they have a profit in some of those bonds to take it and i think if we do have a downturn in the equity market, it's a lot of difficulties for a lot of retirees and pension funds which leads me to the approach at least until the election is over >> so take money off the table maybe pulling your horns a little bit wait to see what happens with the election and then you'll reassess. >> yeah, that's exactly right. this is caution. it's not saying get out of everything it's just you have to be careful in here so you don't get whacked by whatever the election results are going to be.

>> thank you for that time you better give that puppy a little love. give him a kiss for him. >> i'll give him a kiss for you, becky, absolutely. my pleasure. >> take care we'll see you soon. >> okay. >> thanks, becky when we come back on the other side of the break, sports viewership numbers have been down across the board. we'll try to dig into why that is the case. straight ahead and later we'll talk to kevin cramer for the latest news out of washington on another round of stimulus and a reminder you can watch or listen to us live any time. you can do it right now tulyacal on the cnbc app. we're back after this.

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welcome back to squawk box take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour nasdaq up 143 points the s&p 500 up about 16 points as we await a stimulus plan or not. meantime tech workers are fleeing to work remotely detailing from one of the highest cost of living areas in the country. workers that move though may face salary cuts of up to 15% depending partly on the cost of living in their new region we told you about this last week

when microsoft made it's plans to adjust salaries for cost of living they would have to take a pay cut of as much as 10%. doing a little bit of math about their moving plans and what they mean. >> coming up, lebron james and the lakers winning the nba championship last night. viewership numbers for the series hit record lows with everyone still at home what gives that's next.

events like the nba finals, baseball playoffs and even fo l football seeing pretty serious declines viewership increased 15% year over year. joining us now, our own jabari young sports business reporter, director of the sports business program at washington university in st. louis i'll jurors start -- are you watching more, less, or the same

sport now that we're all like basically kind of locked up at home i'm watching so much more that i don't really understand the ratings. >> you know, i'm actually watching a little bit less on days and then i'm watching a little bit more. it depends on, you know, the game it depends on how i'm feeling. i think that's most of america with so much sports out there and not only that but, you know, the sports as well as other things that you want to watch now. and you start to see people get that in some ways and going between tournament television and i don't think it's all always sports all the time and again there's so much sports out there but again, the consumption habits have changed. make no mistake about that >> yeah. patrick, it has to do with streaming, i guess, as jabari

pointed out. there's also a lot going on, for me, it started with the french open yesterday and watched nadal just dominate and then i have my choice after that. all the nfl. you got the -- what turned out to be the final game of the nba and then even the start of the american league championship series i don't know, i feel like maybe i need to get a life or something outside of the house i'm totally happy and we waited for it and i thought we waited so long for it that we were, you know, kind of embarrassed that people aren't more excited about being able to watch these things. >> at the very beginning when the nba came back they did have an up tick because there was nothing else going on but what's happened since there's so much to consume as you mentioned last night, you had the nba finals, you had game one of the american league championship series and sunday

night football game between the vikings and the seahawks won in the dying moments by russell wilson so this is a big part of it now we can't overlook the pact that clearly right now we have a very contentious presidential debate and the cable of course but i don't put a lot of stock, though there may be a small minority of people that are not watching these games because of these issues with social justice issues, i think that is a very very very small percentage of why the ratings are down >> and i always talk about for me, it's -- and i really was just thinking about it if i was, like, really putting a lot of money down on draftkings or something, it wouldn't matter whether i put $5, when it starts going south, i feel sick to my stomach with watching what happened to dak yesterday. i'm not over that yesterday, and then who do they send in andy dalton, i was like no, no,

and you see the very first snap, oh, you're snapping it to me so i was supposed to, oh, sorry, okay it was unbelievable. but i don't see why that's not a tail wind, patrick, really, a much bigger tail wind than it should be now. you know what, it's not legal enough in enough states, i don't think. >> joe, you bring up a great point because one thing that everybody that works in the sports industry has been talking about is the gamification of sports, the capitals, they're putting that into their facility, people can game once people come back i know other teams are doing this as well and even professional football teams. here's a league that didn't want anything to do with vegas, now they have a team in vegas, and we have a summit coming up at washington university on november 6th we have a couple of guests coming in from different teams and talking about their new corporate partnerships with companies like mgm bet, and points bet, so yeah, i think

that that's increasing the engagement, but unfortunately you have all of these other factors that are just spraying the viewership. >> and i don't want to leave off the fan aspect either. you know, sometimes, you know, when you're looking at these games, television networks don't like when there's nothing in the stands it creates the illusion that the game isn't important enough to stay tuned in. i had that illusion watching the nba finals you know, listen, the product, great. i don't want to take anything away from the nba product. the product on the court is great. but me personally, i need those spectators in those stands in order to feel engaged a little bit more i need the spectators in the stands to feel engaged a little bit more now with the micro marketing coming in soon, they need the fans back in the stands. i was tuned into the eagles and steelers game. the little boy raising, i like to see stuff like that, and i

know television networks do too. >> i think that's a key point, jabari, and a lot of the college football, they got, i don't know, maybe 5%, but i hear them, and they're still there, and they're excited and watching what's going on, and i'll tell you, i was watching the other day, i was watching a baseball game, and bases were loaded. okay and, you know, if he walks in a run, i mean, it's going to tie the game or they're going to go ahead, and the pitcher was so nervous, but it was silence in the stadium. just the guys in the dugout. if they had been in the away stadium, and the fans had been there yelling at him about throwing a ball or walking it, it would have been a totally different ball game, so to speak. >> think about the wide shot screens where the tv networks get to wave back that creates adrenaline for me i don't know about you, but so much that i want to turn up the tv just to feel a part of the

action so believe me, i can't wait until fans get back in the stands i can't wait to get back in the arenas myself to watch the games. >> we were like doing the simple dollars and cents, well, you know, the fans, it's much more important, the tv rights and wa watching on tv, but you forget it's almost synergistic to have the fans there makes it much better to watch when you're there. >> absolutely. >> and there is a glut, i can't remember when i was watching, you know, nfl, baseball, nba, all at the same time it's a little bit weird, but for me, it's been fun. all right. and jabari, i think, you know, nbc is going to, you just can't stop the synergy, and i'm using that word a lot, but a fan duel or a draftkings, that's going to be the way people consume sport in the future, even if it's $5, $2 on a game

i think that's going to make a big difference. >> absolutely. and let's not forget, you know, patrick, go ahead. >> they want to get engaged and we're going to see more and more states, joe, you know, doing this i know the nba has been working very hard on trying to leverage these states, getting them to pass state legislation for legalization of gambling we're going to see more and more of it. there's already 15 to 20 states there passed it and legalized it, we're going to see more in the future. >> do you, jabari, foresee, i mean, even more distributors getting into this? is this going to be a google or an amazon? is this decline in ratings, is it going to accelerate that move to somewhere else or do the big media players stay the same, do you think? >> you know, i think it may alter a little bit depending on the league listen, remember, sports is like this it's an up and down thing. tv rights deals, ratings might

very well be up, and then at that point the network is going to have to come. remember, there's nothing more compelling on tv than live entertainment and live sports is still the way to go, and that's what's holding up the networks and i think they missed that now that we have na bathat back again, i think leagues like the nhl, they have learned they can't play into the summer time. they can't go into early fall. you better go back to your regular schedules. when adam silva says they want to get an 82 game in schedule for next season, i don't buy it. i think nba wants to get back to the normal schedules next october and in order to do that, you've got to shorten the season, we'll see how it goes, though >> i mean, i already know there's a baseball game on at 4:00 today, and then there's another one on later then there's a football game on. did you know there's an nfl game tomorrow, guys >> absolutely. i might watch that because there ain't nothing else going on. nba is over now, i think you

might see nhl take a bump now that the other leagues are over. >> first thing when i'm sitting there, anyway, that tmi, thank you, jabari, thank you, patrick, for a great discussion >> thanks, guys. >> stock market, sports, it's all kind of same, becky. >> when you're sitting where, first thing in the morning >> i'm sitting on my phone being careful. one of these days, does that ever happen? >> drop it right in. >> it has fallen when we come back, former secretary of defense ash carter will join us to talk about china relatives a relations and the coming election stick around we'll be right back. sales are down from last quarter but we are hoping things will pick up by q3.

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stocking looking to extend their winning streak, we've got a look at what you need to watch in the trading week ahead. the white house and democrats at odds once again over a new round of stimulus as the trump administration presents a plan to help small businesses. a preview of big bank earnings, the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ it's just another manic monda wish it were sunday ♪

♪ that's my fun day my i don't have to run day ♪ >> good morning, welcome to sko sko "squawk box" right here, joe kernen, becky quick, nasdaq looking high, 171 points meyer, and s&p 500 opening right now about 21 points higher becky. >> and rurrew, thanks, a very by week shaping up in the nation's capitol. elan el ylan mui >> reporter: when she called the trump administration's latest offer grossly inadequate the white house proposal is now at $1.8 trillion that's $400 billion less than democrats have been asking for

the administration has upped the money for state and local governments by 50 billion. kids would receive a $1,000 direct check from 500 and enhanced unemployment benefits of $400 a week would last through january. pelosi is arguing that the problem is not just the dollars, it's also the details and she accused the administration of lacking a national testing strategy, and falling short on child care and worker safety protections. meanwhile, senate republicans raised objections of their own i'm told in a phone call over the weekend between white house chief of staff mark meadows and the treasury secretary steven mnuchin, senators complained about expansion of health care tax credits, the amount of money for state and local governments and the ballooning price tag overall. still the president has repeatedly insisted this weekend that he wants to do a deal, maybe even a bigger one than democrats are asking for in a public letter, the

administration called an all or nothing approach an unacceptable response for the american people becky, it is really hard to see how they're going to craft consensus from here. back over to you >> you know, hard to say how they may craft consensus that's a bit of a surprise to see that the administration is now offering money for state and local municipalities that's been a huge sticking point. that's something that the republicans in the senate have not wanted to go along with. it doesn't seem like they would be able to get there what's the administration's response if they can actually get the democrats to the table on that. would they be able to get it through the senate >> well, first of all, it doesn't seem like the $300 billion that the white house is offering is going to be enough for democrats, their proposal, it was $493 billion on it there's still a gap there. as you pointed out, the senate republicans aren't going to go for it this has been a problem all along is that mcconnell has not been one of the negotiators in this discussion so far

>> i mean, i have to say, i'm surprised, it may not be exactly what the democrats are looking for, a smaller number, but $300 billion is a pretty decent start on that. i had not anticipated that the administration would actually say okay to that, just because of the difficulties they would face within their own caucus on that is it your understanding that the democrats are just not going to take anything that's less than what they put on the table? >> reporter: that seems to be the case pelosi has said repeatedly, she can't pass something that's less than $2 trillion within her own caucus i think what you're pointing out here is that the administration's position does appear to be shifting and that's causing a lot of heartburn amongst senate republicans you heard president trump may not mind giving money to the blue states because he wants to get direct checks out to americans so badly there is a different tone coming from the administration, and senate republicans are not happy about that and that's one of the reasons

why mcconnell has been sitting on the sidelines to see where the discussion between the white house and democrats ends up. he had tried to sort of tamp the brakes on this previously, and saying that the senate is only going to focus and put its priority on the supreme court, but now it's clear that the white house is not done with this just yet. >> yeah, stay tuned, right this could get even more interesting. ylan, thank you very much. stock futures have been kind of trending higher after ver modest gains we began the show this morning investors preparing for corporate earnings also monitoring what we were talking about, the stimulus talks. mike santoli joins us with more. here we go again it's like every three months, it seems like, we do this, earnings thing. >> we do almost that often. it also seems like every three months we have one of these situations at least recently where we have had a pull back. the question is it going to be a little bit more and break out of

a range. that's what happened last week, we did kind of come out of this range. it reminds us of what happened after the june pull back five weeks, let's say, kind of broke higher this is also about five weeks since the high september 2nd, and we did break higher. we're going to get a little bit, if we start approaching the highs again. probably you're going to have a situation where the market is going to look a little overbought people are going to start to get a little bit maybe over confident about the market again, and then you have the challenge of perhaps dealing with sentiment and technical issues despite the fact there's no obvious near term stimulus coming, the market is fine to go higher here's what's happened since the september 2nd high there's a shift of emphasis. the average stock and s&p roughly speaking has been the outperformer, nasdaq 100, has been the under performer, basically the rotation to cyclical stocks despite the fact we have not had the stimulus coming up on a timely basis,

what we have had, though, is the passage of time, earnings coming through probably better than expected and we're closer to that window where it seems as if we're making progress against the virus going into next year becky. >> obviously something to be watching pretty closely. mike, we were talking with mark grant earlier, just about these october surprises that could come up, and he thinks there's the potential for that even more this time around because he thinks it's a stark difference between the two sides. how do you play that how do you kind of prepare for that >> i don't know that there's a play for that. so the key feature of this market for months now has been how traders have been front loading their anxiety about the e electo election, whether an unresolved outcome. it doesn't seem this is a market susceptible to being blind sided, whatever the percentage the last couple of weeks rally, the polling lead that biden has

built up, does not seem like it's falling apart, maybe that means stimulus in the beginning of next year to the extent that is what it's about, a tightening of the race is probably going to give the market a little bit of pause, maybe that's going to be your excuse for the market flattening out after this run it's had. >> mike, thank you we'll check in with you a little later. former defense secretary ash carter joins us to talk u.s./china tensions, regulating big tech and the government's response to the pandemic. and set your alarms, everybody. amazon's prime day sales event begins tonight at midnight after it was postponed from july it now runs for two days "squawk box" will be right back. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning 22 days until the election, and some americans have already cast their vote through mail-in ballots, but many expecting that a winner won't be declared on election night, and what could that delay mean for market stability and also international relations. i want to bring in our next guest this morning, ash carter, former defense secretary in the obama administration he's now director of the bellford center at harvard's

kennedy school secretary carter, we appreciate you joining us this morning. >> thank you. >> let's just start with the election, from a national security perspective, all of the questions that have been asked about just the security unto itself of the election, are you worried? >> no, i'm not worried that votes can't be counted correctly. this business of irregularities is really quite small and over inflated what people do need to understand, i think, what i understand from the experts, i'm not an expert on elections is i will take some time. we need to be patient, keep peaceful until every vote is counted. i think the main thing people ought to bear in mind is we have done this for a long time. i personally have been involved in transitions since 1981. we've always done it civilly certainly in the defense department, but elsewhere. this is going to be a little different not because they're

going to be voting irregularities of any significance but because it's going to take some time. we need to wait for every vote to get counted. >> but mr. secretary, you're not worried about interference from the likes of china, from the likes of russia, perhaps the likes of iran and others >> i'm certain there will be interference by mostly russia, also china and iran. i expect us to be able to defend ourselves against them and recognize them for the most part it's really putin's russia that does most of this because russia doesn't have anything going for it its economy and demographics are making it a country of secondary importance, and the only way it can have importance is by using kgp type tactics, little green men and hack elections as well as nuclear weapons i'm certain they will do it. i know for a fact they did it in the past i don't think they're going to be successful, but i think we need to be vigilant about it

but the main thing is it's going to take a little time, some days or so, to understand, to finish the voting, and i think it's important, this is not something the military should be involved in it's principally something law enforcement, but we need to support law enforcement in keeping the peace while these votes are counted, and then conducting a transition as we have done for 200 years, as i said, i have been involved for 40 years. >> i want to pivot the conversation to silicon valley and technology, an issue you spent a lot of time on, but before we do that, i wanted to ask you about the defense production act and the reason i wanted to ask about that is the ceo of regeneron was interviewed and said that really there's only going to be about 400,000 doses of regeneron and the eli lilly drug by the end of the

year dr. scott gottlieb said you need about 400,000 doses a month to make this work and get it to the right people do you think the defense production act should have been used prior and could still be used and should be used today both on therapies, potentially testing techniques, and other measures >> it can. and it should wherever it could be useful. it's not the pacing item in vaccines the pacing item in vaccines is that the six or so platforms that are all very different, that are being considered from vaccines are still undergoing clinical testing that's the critical thing at the moment then there will be a time when it comes to producing them if the defense production act would help, i think the companies have plenty of incentives to do this to scale as some of them are lagging, i do think the military can help,

and is already helping in planning just the sheer logistics of getting hundreds of millions of people vaccinated. so i think there is a role for the defense department, if they're called upon to do it, dpa is one tool, if it's needed, ought to be used >> i wanted to pivot as i mentioned earlier to the world of technology because you focused on it so much during your tenure, and continue to today. i'm very curious about what you make of the attitude of silicon valley towards the military in this day and age we had the ceo of palantir on a week ago or two weeks ago now with their ipo, but they're an outlier when it comes to being frankly supportive of the defense department in ways that so many of the other consumer internet companies at least it seems have pivoted away from >> they're getting a lot better. it's changed in the last few years. one of the big priorities i had

as secretary of defense in addition to dealing with the world was making sure that the united states continues to have access to the best technology. remember, it's the best people, and it's the best technology that makes us the finest fighting force the world has ever known and since so much of the tech base we now don't own. we're still the biggest backer of r and d in the united states, and so we're a big dog, but there's a whole sea of commercial technology out there, and we need access to it to be excellent, and therefore we need the tech sector to understand that they have a responsibility to help the country in whose laws guarantee their profits, whose order and peace guarantees the environment in which they can do what they do. they need to give back i have seen in the last five years or so, and i have been actively participating in this, a real change in the mood of the tech sector. i would not say it's as hostile, nearly as it was years ago

i mean, especially after the snowden incident but they do have that responsibility, and in addition, because, you know, we've had a whole week, two weeks, of talking about government regulation of tech, we haven't quite landed that plane. i think it will. i'm not sure it involved break out but it will involve some sort of government role in making sure we restore decency to big tech, but in addition to regulation by the government, we need self-regulation, companies taking it upon themselves, technologists taking it upon themselves to do the right thing, and there are a lot of them who are doing that. in fact, we are recognizing them at harvard along with wired magazine later this week >> i'm sorry, ash, just on that point, i was thinking about the sam thing because you did make a lot of end roads as secretary of defense in trying to bring a lot of those technology companies

kind of closer to the government but with that government regulation that you're talking about right now, just wonder if any sort of these attempts comi coming from the right or the left, because democrats and republicans have a long list of complaints about these technology companies at this point, is it going o mato make t that much harder to work with the government because there's so much tension in the midst of being told you need to break up and separate, are you going to be that much more willing to work with the government >> most of them as i said, are, in fact, and their work forces have changed their attitudes, and with respect to regulation, i really think that what ceos everywhere need most is for us to settle the wall down. there's too much in the air now about break up and what kind of regulation we need i think if we did pass some legislation that was reasonably in the direction of the bill

that the house put on the table, which had a lot of support, that would stabilize things i do think tech needs stability, but it also needs some government regulation. in the mean tetime, as i said, companies are taking steps to do their own self-regulation. if i can give you an example of that, the project that i run at harvard has teamed up with wired magazine, and we call it the tech spotlight, and to shine a light, a congratulatory light, recognition upon tech companies when they do do the right thing, which is not infrequent, we had over 200 entrants and from 18 countries. and we are recognizing this week, three that we thought deserved special recognition, a number of runners up i'll give you an example, one of them is part of google, and what google has done in this ai cards project is to accompany their

artificial intelligence products with a guide to how to use it responsibly, if you're using it in health care, using it in law enforcement, and you need to understand how the thing works it's not a black box you can defend the morality of what you're doing, what its limitations are. that's one recognition we have given. another one, you know, is in the area of biorevolution, which is coming we have been living the digital revolution, the good and the bad. we're trying to restore the good, enhance the good relative to the bad, that's what we have been talking about the bio revolution is coming, and we need to make sure that we don't re-travel the path of the digital revolution where we have too much darkness and not enough good another thing we're recognizing is stem cell researchers who have organized themselves to set rules for how they'll do research in this very sensitive

field. there are a lot of technologists who are doing the right thing, and that's good because what we need as a society is a mixture of government regulations, measured, certain. >> mr. secretary, we appreciate it before i let you go, let me ask you one question, i don't know if you saw this news over the weekend. the president, president trump held almost the equivalent of a rally and used a united states marine band as part of it, caused a bit of controversy, if you were running the defense department, would it cause controversy for you? >> it would. this is the kind of thing that i think we need to be very careful about. i would as secretary of defense be extremely careful about our military is apolitical it needs to be that. it needs to because we need to be the best, and you can't change out the military every four years, like we change out our politicians, so we need a professional military. we need it to stand apart from

politics, and as secretary of defense, i was certainly very vigilant about that, but i never had any difficulties with presidents from ronald reagan, right up through president obama. i have not worked for president trump. all the presidents that i have worked for showed a respect for that division between the institution of the military, which must be professional in order to protect us, and politics, which does change every four years so there's an important wall there, and it needs to be respected. >> mr. secretary, we appreciate you joining us this morning. and hope to see you in person hopefully sooner rather than later. >> like wise don't we all want to see one another in person. it's good to see all of you. >> we do we do. becky? >> thanks, andrew. and thank you to ash carter as well before we head to a break, a

quick news story, the electricalin r to state medicaid programs for its top selling drug, a multiple sclerosis from $50 a vile to $30,000 a vile just last year. it says it plans to resolve the opioid claims and reduce its debt during the bankruptcy protection "squawk box" will be right back.

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♪ rainy days and mondays always get me down ♪ >> yeah, it's rainy and it's a monday, in fact. still to come on "squawk box," allianz, his 0 and 5 jet, it's not my idea to talk about that major banks set to report quarterly results, and "new york times" columnist, pulitzer prize

author tom friedman joins us "squawk box" will be right back.

for you right now.

clyde communications platform twilio is buying segment for $2.6 trillion in stock intuit, instacart and levis, and the ceos of both companies are going to join us in an exclusive interview in the next hour to talk all about it. you're looking at twilio stock up 2%. a little more than that, and we'll tell you more about that transaction when jeff lawson joins us in just a little bit. becky. >> excellent looking forward to it. thanks, andrew our next guest says that the markets will be bombarded by policy news this week. most of it, he says, will be noise. but there are some key events. let's bring in mohammed el aryan. what are the events that you think we'll hear outside of just the regular noise. what should we pay attention to? >> the stimulus, but we're going to be bombarded by news about a

few things we're going to be bombarded with news about projections, what the outlook is like. i can tell you these projections are out of date even before they hit our desks. secondly we're going to be bombarded by news about how it's important to move to fiscal policy, but the politics isn't there to allow that that easily, and finally we're going to be bombarded about news about we have to reduce the debt payments of developing countries. but that's not something that you can enforce in the private sector so as much as that news is going to be dominating, the only thing that matters this week is where we are on the stimulus talks. >> you think we're actually going to make progress on that i'll admit, i'm surprised how far the administration has gone this morning including money for state and local governments to go ahead and say that they would put that in the package even if it's not as much as the democrats were looking for is there going to be a point where the democrats just can't say no to the deal

>> i mean, that's where they're being pushed into, that they're going to be looked at as being more and more unreasonable you know, even if we get agreement, becky, i don't know if we can get it through congress in time. >> that was my question, too >> even if the democrats get to the point, i think they are getting painted into a corner where they're looking more and more unreasonable, if they come to the table and say, okay, can you get the senate to sign off on that, too if this is all that matters for the market, will the market ever look at this and say, oh, no, it's really not coming or is it just coming in drips and drabs and we know this and it's baked in. >> the latter. the problem with it's a matter of time argument is that there's ongoing damage to the economy every day, so it really does matter when this will come i think that's what's interesting is this market is

completely behaviorable. it wants to go up and it finds the narrative to justify why it's gone up and the behavioral side is very simple it has been reinforced to believe that liquidity is not just necessary but sufficient for ever higher asset prices, so this market will look at whatever silver linings there are on the stimulus, and extrapolate that >> okay. if it's more and more damage that's being done every week that this doesn't get passed, when does it start to show up in the numbers. you hear it in stories from businesses showing pain, but it doesn't seem to be showing up in so many of the regular economic numbers that we have been watching to this point >> most of the high frequency numbers, including jobless claims last thursday have shown that the pace of recovery is moderating and that what you're getting is not a v shape at all, it's the

square root, you come back up and flatten too early. too early relative to what it could be, and too early relative to what you need what we haven't gotten yet, and that's the only thing that is really important for the markets is bankruptcies, we have avoided bankruptcies because markets have been so abundant with liquidity at very low yields, so we haven't had short-term problems becoming long-term solvency issues and that is the one thing that has been really helpful for the marketplace is that we have been able to avoid bankruptcies >> mohamed let me pause at one other idea, without a sharp selloff in the markets, you're not going to see negotiators in washington actually come to the table and be forced to hammer something out. i mean, we watched it in the financial crisis, we watched the narcotic go down before both sides were forced to come together and do this if the market continues to look

at this and the money is eventually coming, it's a chicken and egg scenario, what's going to force their hands >> you need a selloff that lasts more than one or two days, but the market has been conditioned to buy, and that has been an incredibly successful approach it's a chicken and egg because you need a few days of selloff to act as a cattalyst for lawmakers but the market itself will correct pretty quickly. yeah, i mean, we're going to continue to living in these two worlds, like charles dickens, a tale of two worlds. >> that makes me think we are going to be facing longer internshterm issues and this is going to be a bigger structural problem, without any market drop to force them back to the table by the time the market sits up and says wait a second, this is different, it's going to have to be almost a too late moment.

>> yeah, i think that's absolutely right i think that the market will go its own way, and you hear it over and over again, market is not the economy. the market is not the economy. and that's true in the short-term, but over the long-term, markets need to be validated by fundamentals. where that long-term is, no one knows, and the right thing has been to bet that is way out there, and the cautious people are saying i've seen these dynamics before, it doesn't happen for a long time, and then it suddenly happens, so you know, that's why people aren't comfortable. the right thing to do right now if you are a short-term profit maximizer is to ride this liquidity wave, and it has been incredibly profitable to do so >> mohamed, thank you, that gives us a lot to think about. it's really good to see you this morning. >> thank you, becky! take care. in the meantime, i wanted to get a look at stocks on the move this morning

dom chew joi dom chu. >> we have interesting moves, twitter up over 3% premarket, around 40,000 shares of volume the social media platform gets upgraded to buy, and target price raised to 56 bucks from 36 over at deutsche bank. they're citing bigger event and news catalyst to drive traffic next year as well as a better macro picture. you've got shares of draftkings around 2 1/2%. the online sports betting company is getting new coverage initiation from credit suisse, a $76 price target they're looking at things like expansion in the total addressable market or tam for key aspects of its-in game betting strategy, and stronger consumer acquisition and marketing as well. by the way, analysts at deutsche bank initiated at a hold rating

and $48 price target the shares up nearly 3%, and we have shares of snowflakes, up over 3%. 20,000 shares of volume. the data platform company gets coverage, including at goldman sachs, which says buy $268 price target, citing things like stronger, longer term business, and secure data storage. shares have been doubling since the $120 ipo last month, making snowflakes worth a $66 billion company. i'll send things back over to you. >> draftkings, that reminds me, i was watching ladies pga, too, i forgot about that. >> philadelphia. >> that was a cool looking course what an amazing, i forget how many broirdies had >> sei-young kim >> what investors should think

of banks, citigroup, j.p. morgan chase. black rock, bank of america. morgan stanley, many more. we'll bring you all the numbers skp and the market reaction as they m coo come out all week nglo dr. anthony fauci, tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern. "squawk box" is coming right back (♪ ) keeping your oysters growing while keeping your business growing has you swamped. (♪ ) you need to hire i need indeed indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a shortlist of quality candidates from a resume data base so you can start hiring right away.

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welcome back to "squawk box," watching the futures on this monday morning, you're going to see green arrows, this comes after a day of gains on friday for all three of the major averages and in fact a week of gains for all three as well the dow sitting in positive territory year to date, and that's the first time that's happened since september 2nd this morning, dow futures look up by about 70 points. s&p futures up by 23, and the nasdaq indicated up by 200 points this morning. those gains have been building nasdaq was up by about 100 points, and we have seen gains in all the major averages or futures i should say in europe this hour, where

markets are open and trading, you will see that right now at least green arrows across the board. the markets have approved too. the ftse was flat last time we checked on it. the biggest gainer is the cac in france apple is holding a launch event, where it's expected to unveil its line of 5g iphones the phones will include the first major exterior redesigns since 2017 we'll have a preview of that event, plus a number of big bank quk x" torw. "sawbo will be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ "hmm's and ahh's" heard in-call.

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a beautiful shot of the capitol right there. we have news that's just breaking cloud communications platform twilio buying segment. price tag is about $3.2 billion in stock segment a customer data platform with customers that include intuit, instacart and levis. take a look at cloud stocks that seem to be moving higher on this news right now you're looking across the board at moves including of course snowflakes i'm not sure the snowflakes move is twilio related but nonetheless, that's a stock obviously that's also been

rising fast. joe. twilio, i mean, the market cap has got to be closing in on like $50 billion, andrew >> yep it's unbelievable. >> i'm watching you, let me try this, marco. you say polo. >> polo. >> marco. >> polo. >> there's no delay right now between crow ayou and me, i don think. >> pretty good. >> is it fixed, totally? i think it might be. >> this is technology at work here we'll see. hopefully we won't talk over each other this way. >> someone just said you're still talking over each other. it's not just us it's not technical issues anymore. you know what this means, you don't ever need to come back, ever i don't think. do you wherever you are, you like it.

you've got ache skperes and acr staff. i don't see this happening you've got a pond and a pool pond would be good for you. >> cheers to you, joe, and the good folks in times square. >> this is amazing, much better if we don't have that issue. moving on to the nfl, positive covid tests have forced the nfl to rearrange the schedule for several teams. denver's game at new england was scheduled for yesterday, is moved to today, and then moved to next sunday after the patriots had more positive tests. the buffalo/kansas city game that was scheduled for thursday night has been moved to next monday because the bills are scheduled to play the titans tomorrow night, and those moves set off a ripple effect as games for eight teams were moved to acome -- accommodate the change. no double headers in football,

that's how they fix baseball all right. let's move on. it's a big week for earnings bank earnings going to kick into high gear. j.p. morgan, and citigroup senior stock analyst at morgan stanley joins us on the phone. some of the things you are expecting are similar to the piece in the "wall street journal," the lead story, talking about things kind of being less bad, which makes them good, so no reserves, the building of reserves for loan losses is mostly over, so sequentially, these numbers, versus not last year but versus last quarter are going to be solid in your view >> yeah, exactly, joe, so the basic point here is that earnings are going to be up something like 100%, 133%, q on q because, you know, the accounting change at the beginning of the year so thaey'r allowed to, you know, estimate what they think the recession is going to cost them, and book it

up front in the first two quarters of the year we're going to see a big increase in earnings good for the capital base and the beginning of buy backs, which we think is going to be 3q, we'll start that as our estimate. >> so you've got that sort of trending positive, and you've still got very depressed stock prices, do you not are most of these near booked, or all down for the year, are they not >> yeah, it's an interesting question, you know, i get this all the time, people are like, hey, why isn't this group back up to precovid levels like a lot of other sectors, and it boils down to the yield curve, you know, the yield curve is so low and so flat that it's taken out about 150 basis points of return on equity. so that's the battle that these stocks are fighting now is, you know, the low flat curve, and that's, you know, i think that's the main reason why they haven't gone back it their pre-covid

levels yet that said, as we look forward, and losses, you know, have already been booked, and people realize that, i think this group could catch a bid. >> okay. and they're not all created equal. you've got some that you really like you've got some that you don't like so much, right? who's positioned well? >> so going into this quarter, our top pick citigroup and alli in part because they're extremely cheap, i would argue, you know, the price to book for both of them is between 0.5 and 0.7. they are largely reserved for credit losses, the other one going into the quarter specifically is goldman because the capital markets are strong right now. you follow that every day, especially the ipos and the m and a announcements which are coming and will feed into earnings into next year as well. >> you don't like pnc very much.

>> well, that one's on our least preferred list, mainly because of the commercial and commercial real estate skew, like, you know, lending businesses and commercial real estate, that's going to take a little longer to get through, lost content, than consumer, and then the other piece is, look, this is a stock that's extremely done actually really well, and the valuation is high relative to the group, so, you know, i'm a little bit more dumpster diving, you could say. >> you do not see necessarily a double dip in terms of just the economy? that would hit earnings, but you don't see it or the probability is low? >> so, you know, we do as a firm, as a morgan stanley firm, our economists do have a low probability on a double dip. that said, these banks are already reserving for a 9 1/2% unemployment rate. the unemployment rate right now is, you know, 7.9. so we could have a small double dip here with unemployment

moving back up and the banks are already reserved for that worse scenario because a quarter ago, the outlook was 9 1/2% unemployment year end and 7% next year. we can withstand a double dip, a small double dip in the bank group. >> and you don't even think a blue sweep would be negative you're of the opinion we hear so often that there will be a tax hike but there would be stimulus and infrastructure, but you think that that would definitely mean stronger economic growth, because banks do care about economic growth. you don't think over regulation, you don't think the negatives we think of would, you know, maybe put a damper on the overall economy. you think it will be offset by stimulus, and more spending even with the debt where it is? >> so short answer is yes, and the longer answer is we have, you now, the 20 expectations

we have tax rate in a blue sweep going from 21 to 28% now, on average, median, actually, i should say, median eps hit is about 7 1/2% for the bank group, you know a little bit more than the s&p which is 6% then you've got infrastructure bill which is, you know, expected to be the signature bill that a blue sweep administration would want to get to that tune of 1 to $2 trillion would generate significant job growth and gdp an infrastructure bill is going to have a ripple effect on the economy in a positive way, so adding in the benefit of better loan growth and also more sustainable job growth, you know, pretty much offsets that eps hit. you know, it's a little bit negative it's like 2% negative. now we're into the range of

numbers that is quite tight. >> yeah. sounds good. heck, why don't we just do a hundred trillion infrastructure and get a hundred times the growth >> that's not our opinion. >> but if it's so simple, 3, 4, 5, trillion, hey, it's just going to all work. i don't know, those trillions are adding up, betsy we'll see. we need some infrastructure probably, thank you, we appreciate it, and we may need to check back with you because it's starting tomorrow, and it's the flood gates open and the banks, they all come at once, and then we see a lot of wealth. maybe we'll book you as well thanks, we appreciate it. >> thanks for your time this morning. appreciate it. thank you. >> okay, becky. >> thanks, john. still to come this morning, we will talk to senator kevin cramer for the latest news out of washington, and another round of stimulus. and later, twilio announcing plans to acquire customer data

cloud company segment and a 3.2 billion all stock deal we'll talk to the ceos who built those companies. squoks will be right back. -- "squawk box" will be right back ♪ ♪ everyone wakes up every morning to a world that must keep turning. moving. going. the world can't stop, so neither can we. because the things we make, help make the world go round. we are builders, constantly creating things that make our world cleaner, healthier, and more connected. so that the small moments that help define who we are,

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good morning, stock futures pointing to gains as we make our way towards the opening bell the dow coming off its best week in two months. and fiscal whiplash in washington the trump administration making a plea for small business relief funding by itself. after bipartisan complaints about the white house's latest broader stimulus offer and the deal of the day, cloud company twilio buying customer data segment, player segment, the company is called segment, i should say, for $3.2 billion we're going to talk about the evolution of the cloud with both companies' ceos in an exclusive interview right here as the final hour of "squawk box" continues right now ♪ he's going the distance he's going for speed she's all alone ♪ ♪ all alone in a time of need racing and pacing and plotting the court ♪ >> good morning and welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc, i'm joe kernen, along with becky quick, and andrew ross sorkin

u.s. equity futures have been modestly higher for most of the session, up almost 70 on the dow, and the nasdaq is the strongest of what the averages that we're watching sharply higher now it's been adding to gains since early on, and s&p indicated up about 24 points, bond traders have the day off and i'm going to say it, it's in the prompter, i don't want to trigger anyone, but they have the day off for columbus day offered without any type of opinion whatsoever, becky. >> as aullways with you, joe. >> yes >> in the meantime, here are stories investors will be talking about today. confirmation hearings are set to begin on the nomination of judge amy coney barrett to serve on the u.s. supreme court several senators will be attending virtually today because of positive covid tests or concerns over safety. congressional democrats and presidential candidate joe biden have called on republicans to delay filling the late justice

ruth bader ginsburg's seat until the next president is sworn in the financial times says european regulators could target american technology giants like facebook and apple with a new technology hit list citing people familiar with eu discussions, the paper says that larger platforms would face more stringent regulations than smaller firms, including sharing their data with rivals and increased transparency and here in the united states, the government as awarded astrazeneca nearly half a billion dollars for 100,000 doses of a covid treatment based on antibodies. this is similar to what the president was given last week as he recovered from the coronavirus. the department of health and human services says the agreement focuses on developing an antibody cocktail that can prevent covid-19, especially in high risk patients like the elderly. andrew >> thanks, becky meantime, members of both political parties in washington expressing opposition to the white house's latest economic stimulus proposal. top officials are looking to go

small again. ylan mui joins >> the white house, as the negotiations over another round of relief hit a wall in a public letter to both chambers of congress, the administration said the all or nothing approach is an unacceptable response to the american people. now, the white house has previously floated individual aid to airlines as well as direct checks, but house speaker nancy pelosi has repeatedly said that she's unwilling to bring up just one item unless there is a guarantee that a bigger package is coming, and she called the white house's latest offer once step forward, two steps back now, the broader white house proposal is at $1.8 trillion, it does include money for state and local governments, jobless benefits, as well as direct checks and this weekend, the president indicated he might be

willing to go bigger, bigger even than democrats have been asking for, and the president asked to meet with my lawmaker who might be willing to cut a deal it's not just democrats who are objecting to this. it's also republicans. there was a call over the weekend with the treasury secretary steven mnuchin, and white house chief of staff mark me do meadows and i'm told senators raised a host of concerns, including over the overall price tag, increased funding for state and local government, and health care tax credits that they said would amass to a massive expansion of obamacare back over to you. >> ylan, in terms of what happens this week or what happens next, what does happen next at this point >> reporter: well, all sides say that they are continuing to talk, to share paper, to dive into the details of this but it's really hard to see how

they've bridged this gap, especially when senate majority leader mitch mcconnell made it clear that the senate's priority this week going to be focused on the supreme court hearings rather than on a stimulus package. >> okay. ylan, thank you. joe. thanks, andrew, here to give u us the senate's view of negotiations is kevin cramer of north dakota, a member of the budget committee, and we're hearing that nobody's happy at this point, senator. democrats in the house, certain republicans in the senate, nobody likes the1.8 trillion which is not that far from 2.3, 2.4. it seems like there's more than meets the eye going on here from both sides and not wanting to move ahead with this >> joe, that's a good assessment, sometimes when nobody is happy, that's the best deal you can get when all or nothing is your negotiating position at the beginning, it's one thing, but when your last negotiating position is all or nothing, you

generally end up with nothing, skpst th and that's true in every kind of negotiation, and certainly true in washington, d.c 1.8 trillion isn't that far from 2.3 trillion republicans scoffed at the price tag, understandably. we have driven up an awful lot of debt. i listened to your previous segment, i agree wimore with yo than your guests, the idea of increased taxes and regulations frightens the heck out of me, and we need to avoid driving up this debt unnecessarily. a more targeted approach as republicans have proposed is the better way to go there's a lot of things we can agree on let's focus on those things like airline support, like small business support how about including restaurants and the travel industry in the next round they were largely left out of the last round, and we need to build a bridge to the other side of this economic slump >> that's what republicans want,

but that's different than what the democrats would want do you think there's a common ground on an airline bill or something small, senator >> i think there's a common ground the question is whether it's tenable for one side or the other to accept the fact that the other side might win something. one of the things that i have always found frustrating in washington is when people oppose something for what's not in it i think we should find that common ground you're talking about, whether it's an extension, an expansion of ppe, help for the airline industry, and an extension of unemployment benefits at a modest number than what speaker pelosi is providing. we should let nothing be the conclusion just because you didn't get everything. the other problem, joe, is there is a lot of monkey business going on on the policy side. things like prohibiting states from requiring identification to get a ballot, for example, or allowing ballot harvesting nationwide or sim lstimulus

checks for illegal aliens. let's focus on things the vast majority of people we might not get ten or 20 republicans. we have to come to the middle. i think the country is crying out for it. >> i think that's what kudlow was saying, if the de mams will compromise, you would get enough republicans at that point, and that wouldn't be the stumbling block. what do you think the chances are that's going to happen in that you talk about somebody getting a win, and there's a whole group of, you know, when we do have republicans on, they all say that speaker pelosi is loathe to agree to anything prior the election >> yeah, i think that's probably right. i think all or nothing is easy if you're willing to settle for nothing. i think in her case, she probably prefers nothing the political calculation is democrats benefit from nothing, and they can blame donald trump

and blame senate republicans and maybe somehow she can blame house republicans, i don't know how. this is why i think the reality is that a deal isn't going to be struck until after the election. once that election pressure valve is released i think there's opportunities for things to get done. people should be optimistic about that, but that's not the message we should be sending as lawmakers. >> there's a group of people who think the economy is fine, the stock market or what gdp that glosses over or hides the weak spots for industries and individuals that are truly in need >> there's no question as good as it might look on paper on a given day, we know it's very fragile. certainly this slump has lasted longer than a lot of people thought it would, that's why we need a bridge. we can may the payroll for every restaurant in america but if we don't let the restaurant owner

open up, it's not going to do good it's just going to extend their pain we have to do things to open the economy including tort relief we have talked about as republicans. we're at 7.9% unemployment that was ans aspirational goal during the obama years it looks like a massive failure. to your point, it is fragile as good as it looks, it is fragile. >> do you think that the supreme court hearings, the amy coney barrett hearings are going to influence the stimulus i see nobody walking around congress chews gum and walks at the same time, typically, i have never seen it happen do you think it's possible >> well, it's always possible, joe, but i don't think there's any question right now in this hyper political moment that we're in, and it's obvious, we're two weeks from an election, that, you know, a lot of things are going to depend on the perception of things the senate is particularly challenging because of our weird rules, weird calendar, but i

think from a political stain standpoint, the country watching judge amy coney barrett, answer tough questions from republican and democrats, and the judiciary committee, watching democrats over play their hand, i predict it and i'm pretty certain of it, that will be good for republicans but it still doesn't get a stimulus package done. your question is are the two in conflict with one another. i think they have been for several weeks now. i think the democrats have been largely using their obstructionism to try and influence delaying, if you will, the amy coney barrett hearings and that's not going to happen >> senator cramer, thank you great state of north dakota, right? people get that confused north dakota, what's the biggest difference, you think? i haven't been how should i think of it >> so south dakota has mount rushmore, north dakota has oil

>> oil sounds better, i think. used to, anyway. >> it's worked out for us. >> it used to. it will again. >> all right senator, thanks. >> thank you >> we'll see you becky. thanks, joe. when we come back, we have the ceos behind a big deal that was just announced this morning. twilio's $3 billion acquisition of segment twilio is up big this morning, and more than 230% just since the beginning of the year. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc

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box," everybody. the futures have been in the green all morning long in fact, right now, the dow futures are indicated up by 100 points, the big winner at least on a percentage basis and a point basis is the nasdaq, up over 200 points for the futures this morning 205. >> meantime we just got the news a short time ago, twilio buying customer data platform provider segment. price tag $3.2 billion, an all stock deal, shares of twilio jumping on the news. you can see the stock up 5 1/2%, and it has been on quite a run this year, already joining us in an exclusive

interview is twilio's ceo, jeff lawson, and segment ceo peter reinhardt, good morning to both of you gentlemen, congratulation, for those uninitiated, jeff, explain what twilio does and explain what segment does and why you decided to bring these two companies together >> absolutely, twilio is the leading cloud communications platform we allow companies to communicate with their customers across a wide variety of channels, whether it's voice phone calls, text messages, video, chat, e-mail, and more. we're the leading platform that does this. we'll power close to a trillion customer communications this year, but building a customer relationship requires two things first, it's understanding your customer, and then it's acting on that understanding. understanding your customer is about customer data. all the bits of information about your customer that reside in the myriad of systems the company has, assembling into a complete picture of your

customer, and then you can act on it. acting on it is communications that's what twilio does, the first part, understanding your customer, that's what segment does bringing them together in one platform, we can help companies assemble that complete picture of their customer, and act on it, in order to build great customer relationships >> so peter, congratulations on the deal, big question to you. why sell now why sell at all? it looks like a company that could have perhaps pursued its own ipo at some point or potentially given the frenzy around spacs i'm sure people have called you about that. >> the really exciting thing for us is we get to accelerate our vision by 5 to 10 years. and, you know, for the last 10 years, we have been building this first part of what jeff talked about where we help companies collect and manage all of their own internal customer data, and now we get to accelerate that. where we would have been in five to ten years by joining up with

twilio who has all of these amazing communication channels so we can be the brain for all the data, if you will, and twilio can execute on all of these amazing customer communications and engagement downstream an amazing opportunity for us to build straight out and pull it forward. >> peter, speak to this, because i know there's so many investors following twilio and the success. you can look at the stock chart. it has been on such a ride as you were evaluating accepting this deal, and your deal is in stock, you have to become a believer in the company and in the stock price and valuation, and that this is not just sustainable, but hopefully going to go up, it's gone up today explain your own thinking about that because i think it might be instructive to investors. >> we have been huge believers in twilio from day one i mean, we have always looked up to twilio. all the ways they design apis, the way they sell to developers,

the way they built the company we have been huge fans of twilio for many many years, and i think the whole space of building and selling developers, is just very very early in that space so we're not taking a short-term perspective on this. this is a long-term bet on the future of how software is built and how all of these apis come together and what the future of customer engagement looks like all of that is accelerating. when we look towards the long-term, it's a super awesome and reasonable bet. >> jeff, to that point, clearly the pandemic has accelerated, well, the company's growth, and also the company's stock price are you concerned at all about how fast the stock has moved >> well, look, you know, investors do what investors do as far as the stock price. what i can tell you is that covid has accelerated what has already been a decade long

migration that companies have had. a digital transformation from analog and, you know, yesterday's ways to using digital channels to communicate with their customers, to win the customers' hearts and minds and this has been going on for more than a decade as companies have turned from, you know, in-person commerce to ecommerce, they need to use digital technologies as every company uses screens to build a direct relationship with their customer, building software, and using digital technologies to build that relationship is key, whether it's, you know, telemedicine we have seen companies move to using video in order to engage with patients during this time we have seen ecommerce companies and retailers do curbside pickup and even more sophisticated ecommerce work flows we have seen the travel industry, even one that's been affected so much by covid, having to turn to digital communications to build trust during this time nearly every company in every

industry has been accelerating their move to digital as a result of covid, and twilio is helping the best companies in the world to do that. >> jeff, let me ask you, long-term, i mean, you have had this remarkable growth, remarkable success, is this a independent company for the future or do you think that you could see yourself in a big merger with enterprise oriented companies? >> well, we are playing for what we see as the largest enterprise software opportunity out there helping companies especially b to c companies build great relationships with their customers, and build great experiences in this era of digital disruption and so we are plowing ahead, and building this amazing platform and a generational technology company. >> and just going forward in terms of organic growth versus acquisitions like segment, how are you thinking about it? are there other bolt on acquisitions or even larger strategic acquisitions that you

would consider. >> in q2, growing 46% year of year organically we are growing incredibly fast for our scale that we're at. i think we're unparalleled in the world of software to be growing at our rate. our organic story is fantastic but, you know, as we see companies that are out there, we run an active game board for acquisitions that might help us to accelerate our product growth map or the things we're trying to accomplish for our customers and when we see those opportunities we may take those, and that's why we have such a good balance sheet and that's why we are always looking at companies that can help us to serve our customers better that's our strategy, and you know, segment had fit straight into that, accelerating our road map to build an understanding of our customers' use skpers and allowing our customers to act on that with communications. >> jeff and peter

congratulations on the deal. we look forward to following your progress. thanks, talk to you soon. >> thank you very much >> joe. thanks, andrew dow is now up triple digits, kind of being dragged up, it seems like, by the nasdaq. coming up, how big a role will the economy actually play when voters make their choice for president as opposed to the coronavirus and other concerns "new york times" columnist tom froo friedman will join us with his always provocative insights skprch don't miss dr. anthony fauci on the news with shepard smith, ceso you at 7:00 p.m. eastern time stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on nbc.

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning, last week was a big one for the markets, the dow and s&p 500 were up by better than 3% for the week now on monday morning, we are looking at green arrows once again. s&p futures up by about 28 this morning. dow in triple digits it's up by about 105 points this morning, and the nasdaq really is the big winner. nasdaq indicated up by about 211 points last week the dow closed friday in positive territory for the year to date that's the first time that's happened, andrew, since september 2nd of this year when we come back, a lot more "the new york times" tom

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♪ >> like to just let this music run for a while but it is just three weeks and one day from the election day 2020. the uncertain recovery of the u.s. economy is front and sfr, a center and joining us to talk about that and how much he thinks economic concerns will be at the forefront of voters' minds this time around versus other issues, is thomas friedman, author of "thank you for being late" an optimist guide to thriving in the age of acceleration tom, it's great to see you this morning. >> great to be here. >> it has been the economy stupid for so long in every

election, it seems, is it different this time? >> it really does feel different, becky, i think you have a lot of republican voters aligned with trump it feels for reasons of people feel overwhelmed by the pace of change, the fact that we're going from white majority company to a minority majority country, the fact that we're seeing rapid changes in certain social mores, the fact that jobs are changing radically, one people see in president trump someone who could slow down that change, maybe stop the wind. on the other side, you see, i think, a lot of people attracted to joe biden for reasons that they fear, becky, our concern is being torn apart and they see that as partly a product of a very divisive president, and they want someone to pull us together, and so that's kind of the broad division i see out there in the

voting public. >> yes, i think about the economy and it's impossible to know what's happening because things are changing so rapidly there's so much uncertainty surrounding coronavirus, whether the cases start to rise. it seems like it would be hard to base it on the economy this time around because your perspective on the economy depends entirely on what you have been through the last few months and anticipating you'll be through the next few months, and it's almost impossible to tell that. >> i would say broadly, becky, i do believe, though, we're on the edge of an era of maybe unpr unprecedented creative, never have more people had access to cheap tools of innovation. never had more people, pick up on your previous guest, had access to powerful cloud computing for pennies. never more have people had free money, and never have there been

more problems to solve i think coming out of this, once the politics stabilize, we're going to see an incredible era of creative destruction. >> an incredible era of creative destruction, creative is the good par of the that the destruction part of that, what does ha mean in terms of what would be required for the social safety net of those who get caught up in the process and spit out >> yeah, it's a very good question i mean, i support, you know, the stimulus that we're doing, that we're discussing right now, and we have already done what disappoints me is if you compare it to the stimulus china has done, and the stimulus that the eu has done, those are included capital investments in things that will make their economies more productive. we are really just, you know, enabling people to get through the month. it does pain me that we're spending all of this money and not investing in rural route

broad band or a program to make every government building more energy efficient that would drive down long-term costs and drive up a clean energy industry, so that's one of the things worrying me right now about how this money is being spent. >> you think we'll get a stimulus bill let's just say a, before election day, or b, before the end of the year >> feels like we're going to at least get one of some size before the end of the year because there are just too many people hurting, becky. as you alluded to, there are people who got through this pandemic just fine i work for a newspaper that can easily have everybody work at home, and the news business generally saw an increase in demand you know, the only pain for me is not being able to go to my office other people have been completely devastated. and coming out of this, you know, we really have to think about how we undergird those people so i have to believe

there's going to be a stimulus before, after, this thing is so volatile, it's hard for me to predict. >> tom, let's talk a little bit about big technology and the regulation it's facing, and i think about all of the technology companies that are really doing so well because of the acceleration that we're seeing right now you mentioned cloud competing and things when you start thinking about some of these reallybig companies, social media, too, how do you think they are impacted by this increase in acceleration >> well, you could break up facebook for me tomorrow i think it's insane that a single person controls, you know, what's app, instagram and facebook and that's way too much power in the hands of someone i think has been incredibly reckless, but the others, you know, apple, netflix, you know, google, i find myself really torn. on theone hand, i really

appreciate the efficiencies of google, having written, you know, books, i have had this personal assistant now for the last couple of decades she never asks for a raise she gets better every day. she's incredibly smart, works 24/7, 365, her name is google, and anything that dmiminishes that efficiency for me, that's a real loss. a company that gets that big can devour all competitors, becomes anti-competitive what i really think is the challenge before us, becky, and this is a new book i'm actually working on right now is that we actually need a whole different way of governing the old binary left/right way or in the case of monopolies, for instance, break them up because they're big and do consumer harm, i think you have to think very very differently in the world we're going into and the only way to actually govern in these companies is going to be with some kind of ecosystem solution that brings together, you know, consumers,

regulators, and the companies themselves but i think we got to really rethink this whole thing, actually about governing itself, which is why i believe actually all major political parties in the industrial world have blown up in the last few years became a marxist party in england, the liberals disappeared, republicans became a cult of trump, the democrats will blow up if and when they get back into the power. france is the only country with a leader with no power something is going on that all these binary left right parties are blowing up, and i believe it has to do in part because there's a mismatch between the way these parties govern during the industrial revolution, and the kind of governance we need today which is more ecosystem like than the old top down, right left model we had before >> tom, i want to go back to just what you said about

technology companies and regulating them. and i have been thinking about it i don't know if you've heard this there's a story in the financial times today that suggests that the european union is looking at a hit list of american big tech companies that they would regulate more harshly, that they would be regulated more than smaller counter parts. they would have to do things like share information with their competitor, and when i heard that, i kind of got my back up. we're talking about regulating companies here, doing all of these things they're going to be facing more scrutiny from overseas regulators, and it worries me at some point we're going to look around and say, oh, no, all the great things we had coming from technology, we kind of blew it up, and squ squandered what we took out the good too. do you worry about that? >> i worry about it a real lot i go back to the example about google i realized, you know, google is huge, yet it brought great value

to my life and something that made google less efficient, its searches less quick and comprehensive would really worry me. at the same time, i look at facebook and the fact that it now so dominates the news media landscape. so many people are getting their news from an organization that is largely unedited. i hope they regulate the hell out of facebook. i don't think the tech companies are the same and i don't think they pose the same problem to our social health. >> do you think there's going to be something that sweeps everybody up in the same sort of, with the same brush? i'm mixing my metaphors but you know what i mean. >> the europeans if they had founded and were the homes of these major tech companies, i wonder if they would be, you know, taking this kind of aggressive attitude. i worry about this coming from people who, you know, also feel

a competitive disadvantage at the same time, maybe we should begin having an ecosystem discussion here in america where we bring together, you know, legislative regulators, companies, and consumers into a new kind of dialogue, not just sitting back and waiting for the anti-trust department to take on these companies but actually begin a dialogue here and define what is it about these companies we want to preserve where is their monopoly power harming consumers and innovation and i think we should get ahead of that conversation, not wait for the europeans to do it >> yeah, steve ballmer was with us last week, i think it was last week, who knows, the days run together, he thinks the ceos of these companies need to sit down with the regulators, be serious about it, and say what do you need us to do, get in a room and start making it happen with the hindsight of what microsoft had to go through. do you think any of these companies, facebook, amazon,

netflix, alphabet, any of those companies are more likely to be the first one to do that successfully >> you know, that i don't know i mean, i know vaguely the leaders of these companies over the years as a journalist, and you know, all smart people, but again, i really distinguish between, you know, the tech enabling platforms and facebook, which i think has become toxic. >> yeah, fair point, i don't think zuckerberg would be the first one to do that for sure. maybe bezos, maybe tim cook, if you think about the people who have been pretty good at navigating a lot of pretty crazy things that have come to this point. >> it's healthy, we can leverage the european pressure but i wouldn't want them running the show show on this >> right that's a really good point tom, it's great seeing you we hope to see you again soon: but thank you for your time. >> always, thanks, becky >> thank you coming up, much more on the

markets this monday morning, the futures right now indicated up triple digits, up 125 points, the nasdaq now up 240 points and some of the highs we have seen in the premarket session. the russell 2,000 small cap index is up seven of the last eight days it has just had its best week since early june stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc that must keep turning. moving. going. the world can't stop, so neither can we. because the things we make, help make the world go round. we are builders, constantly creating things that make our world cleaner, healthier, and more connected. so that the small moments that help define who we are,

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welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc, take a look at the futures right now we look at the dow at 123 points higher nasdaq powering higher as well 230 points higher and the s&p 500 looking to open about 30 points higher right about now. becky. >> thanks, andrew. it is just about 45 minutes to go until the opening bell on wall street. dom chu is here. he has a look at some of the stocks on the move this morning. and you've got a few to choose from. >> we've got quite a few but there are so many technology related catalysts and it's one of the reasons why you're seeing the nasdaq higher about 1 1/2% in the premarket much of the premarket activity to the up side has come in megatechnology stocks. remember on a year-to-date basis, we're up 29%.

from the pandemic lows that we have seen to the highs here, we were 80% gainers there and that means that we are now sitting just 4% away from the record highs now, if you take a look at the stocks on the move this morning, apple has got a big week coming up, given the iphone launch that's expected and everything else with apple. that is stock up 65% year to date, but is about 15% off of those recent highs that we saw over the last couple of months so that discount playing in. it's up 3%, you can see in the premarket. another one to watch here is amazon prime day is coming up it has competition amazon shares you can see moving again just off of those highs. up 82% to date you can see the bid coming in at 2 1/2% premarket and alphabet, the parent company of google gets a price target hike that's helping things mount a little bit analysts at deutsche bank say this is a 2020 stock, maybe a pun on the year 2020, about 15 to 15 to close yesterday on

friday, rather shares up 2% right now, and as you can see here becky, an under performing 15% year to date. that might be one of the reasons why alphabet shares are in focus, but mega cap technology, the big reason why the nasdaq futures are implying such a b big side move. jim paulson tells us how the on again, off again stimulus negotiations are impacting investors. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

welcome back to "squawk box" and get over to cnbc headquarters see our friend jim cramer. nice to see you. so much to talk about.

curious about what you make of this deal and the run the stock has been on all year is such a remarkable ride. does it continue >> i think that jeff lawson, a great acquisition and one thing that jeff has done is made it so small businesses that are kind of otherwise left behind during the pandemic have a real shot of looking like large businesses. they make it so as you remember, you can put what you want. say a special at your restaurant and send it to people if you have their e-mail address or their phone and that's how these places are staying alive because otherwise what is happening is there's no, you can't advertise a way a mcdonald's or wendy's does it is a very smart thing by jeff jeff stumbled initially and then really taken off and that is a company like shopify like etsy if you're trying to build a business in the time of covid. >> jim, you know, we were talking to mark grant in the 6:00 hour and he said, look,

with the election coming up and who knows what is going to happen, keep your powder dry what do you make of that assessment >> look, come in and all the stocks that are off 15%, the faang stocks and people are really cheering them and then you can go through those you had a good bank analyst on who was saying good things about the banks. i'm not buying that at all i think goldman and morgan stanley have good numbers and just as you talk about the fact no ppe and no stimulus and no rent and young people have no jobs and a lot of delinquency still and the papers are filled with how the delinquencies have passed they're dreaming plenty delinquencies ahead >> so maybe mark grant is right then >> i think this week could be a test to the market i think actually going into the election people are going to feel good about both sides because they want clarity.

hopefully it will be clear we don't want -- >> hold on so you're saying you want to be in the market. right now you want to be in the market >> i don't think there is anything -- yes. yes. we could have a dip and you buy. how about that >> and you don't believe -- what about the tax piece on biden the idea that you'll see a sharp sell-off just to take advantage of the tax rate today and people will buy again and that will create some dislocation. >> i think that could happen because we don't have buyers right underneath look, you don't make it retrospective if they win the senate you have to be careful and take some action, it really doesn't matter i think what will happen is it's a percentage that's not that great. i think that the states are so much trouble they're likely to give you a bigger tax increase than you'r going to get from that look, rich people own stocks and rich people are not going to be hurt by that level of capital gains.

they are it's a rich person's game. i wish it weren't like that. >> the k-shape recovery. >> k-shape special k. >> jim cramer, we'll see you in a couple minutes with the gang on "squawk on the street." >> senator krcramer is very, vey close relative i did meet him when he was the head of agriculture. he's just a nice guy >> he was nice, yeah >> with a k. kramer with a k. >> sometimes when i dictate, jim, and i mention your name it comes up with a k. in normal text if i'm talking about cra, mer and i'm not talkn about the guy on senfield and i'm not talking about senator. we'll talk to a guy jim pullson

who thinks it is more like a v-shape recovery a little difference of opinion jim paulson and stimulus or no stimulus the market is showing some signs of a more confident consumer and small business with the big ticket items they're buying and why why with all the things that are still front and center for us that are still worrisome, jim. why are people in your view confident? >> well, there's still a lot of, there's a still a lot of oindividuals on main street that are suffering. no doubt about that. a lot of businesses that are suffering. i tell you what, joe, we're coming off one of the strongest growth quarters we ever had in our history. probably grew gdp around 35% in real terms and we're seeing behaviors by companies and consumers that just are not consistent with the national narrative that this economy is hanging by a thread

and consumers and businesses are petrified with fear and they're hunkering down for a collapse. it just isn't. i mean, consumers are buying, as you mentioned, houses, cars, durable goods and stuffs that take confidence to buy and stuff that you have to feel secure in your financials to do. if you asked individuals right now, more individuals will tell you that jobs are easier to get than will tell you that you can't find them. that's inconsistent with the narrative. if you look at companies capital good orders and core capital good orders and return to nurecord highs and the highest level since 2018, that's investments into the future and you only do that if you're ought mystic ism new orders for both the service sector and the manufacturing sector are above 60 te temp jobs and a percent of toll

growth better growth down the road and stock buy backs are coming back and ipo activity has really been strong i just don't see the type of private behaviors that tell me we're on the edge of a cliff economically look at the economic markets stocks have rallied and not only that but rallied or led by the cyclical small caps and sectors that are most sensitive to the economy. look at the bond yields backing up look at commodity prices rising and the safe haven coming out and the financial markets and corporate and individual behaviors tell a very different narrative than i hear about every day. >> you think the biggest risk for next year is that we run too hot and that you point out we got a 77-basis point tenure and tips at 1.7.

so, the fed at least a percentage point lower than we should be just from what the fed is doing and that can't last they're going to have to give up, what is it give up the ghost, something they're going to have to raise, right? >> i think so, joe, eventually a lot of talk of turf control and the fed is doing it. that is very clear when you have a bond yield at 70 and inflation at 170 they're holding yields artificially low. what doesn't get enough discussion is that historically throughout the post-war era policies have about a one-year lag or longer before they start to help the economy. so, much of the stimulus we've dumped on this thing in the last year by the fed, by the treasury, much of that stimulus has yet to start working to help the economy. but as we go into the fourth quarter and into the first quarter, it's going to start to

have that traditional lag impact we could have a surprising solid and healthy, maybe even accelerated economic growth over the coming quarters because of what we did six, nine, 12 months ago. i don't think that gets enough attention. if that happens, if the economy stays stronger than expected even in this quarter we just started, i think the fed is going to have to start to back away from quantitative easing and that would leave a lot of upside room in bond yields >> all right thanks, jim. from the land of humphrey and mondale and we didn't even talk about the election that's not on your plate you don't care the other stuff that matters to you. we like that >> i think so. >> all right great. >> thanks for having me. >> glad we had enough time for you. i didn't feel like you needed to be interrupted you were on a roll

anyway, thanks, jim. final check on the markets up 104 and triple digits on the dow and the nasdaq, whoa, up 219 points in spite of facebook just being split up and just stabbed to death and killed. anyway, maybe that won't happen any time soon. i like facebook. i'm not even on it anyway, we'll see you later. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla the bond market is closed on this columbus day but stocks will open as we get set for a week an apple event, amazon prime day and more our road map will start with stimulus deja vu talks at an impasbut it doesx pect senate republicans to fall