anyway, thanks, jim. final check on the markets up 104 and triple digits on the dow and the nasdaq, whoa, up 219 points in spite of facebook just being split up and just stabbed to death and killed. anyway, maybe that won't happen any time soon. i like facebook. i'm not even on it anyway, we'll see you later. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla the bond market is closed on this columbus day but stocks will open as we get set for a week an apple event, amazon prime day and more our road map will start with stimulus deja vu talks at an impasbut it doesx pect senate republicans to fall

in line. >> all about antibodies. astrazeneca strikes a deal with the u.s. government and do downplays president trump's treatment saying large studies are ongoing. a lot of earnings in the week ahead bank earnings first. apple's big phone launch and amazon prime day and the retail impact from that and what it is actually going to mean for the stocks that you own. carl jim, this morning i heard you talking with andrew a moment ago. growing sense is we keep an eye on stimulus talks that maybe the market really has focused on the front burner more talk about antibodies and we're going to hear what len told cbs in a few minutes. >> if you didn't know, carl, and you read the research this morning it's almost like they got in a room and they said you recommend facebook and you talk about amazon and it's your job to talk about alphabet it's a concerted effort not a national conspiracy but a concerted effort to take up every one of those whether it be

amazon prime and the big 5g day for apple. but you take a look at like a microsoft comment and what's a microsoft? just basically deutsche bank taking it from 230 to 245 and then deutsche bank with google saying, listen this one is underperformed now, david, these stocks are, indeed, off their high and so they have something to say but the thing is they're all saying it at once. it's like this weekend they just got mojo >> yeah, jim, it's, you know, we could go back to i don't know how many conversations we want to have whether it's about valuation or future growth or the underlining fundamentals like we said so many times the digital future that is already here in ways that we might not have anticipated for a few more years. but, do you think there's a level of complacency at this point in the market that just says, oh, yeah i'm not worried. >> i was going through with some

people who have been in the market for many, many years and i said how long can it stay this easy how long can you just throw darts at the nasdaq and hit snowflake or hit, how long can you get a merger paying a huge amount and the stock going up. and the complacency is so much it would draw out some sellers but, carl, a genuine belief that it doesn't matter who wins it doesn't matter about stimulus there are enough trends out there established by covid that just say get along ask the number one, of course, is the internet.'re right, jim the daily rate count is rising and it is no where near what it was in the summertime. meantime, congress to your point appears a lot more interested in judge barrett's confirmation

than it does perhaps in other stimulus package and, speaking of which, we'll keep our eye here on senate judiciary as judge barrett begins what we think is four days of hearings, jim. mcconnell made it clear, this is his priority regardless of what the president or pelosi or mnuchin or meadows may think >> look, i looked over what secretary mnuchin is offering. he's kind of offering what i thought the democrats wanted and also level flexibility that i think is pretty clear that if you really wanted to make a deal, a deal could be made except for in the senate david, you have been saying this over and over again. the senate is not focused on returning money to the people. the senate is focused on the v-shape recovery >> and on these hearings and on those hearings that is the priority as carl said that said, do you really want the president signing if you are the democrats and if you're nancy pelosi, do you want the president signing some sort of big relief package with names and checks going out on them to

a lotamericans, jim. 22 days to the election and it seems very difficult to imagine based on the senate, as you point out, and mitch mcconnell and where his head is at and where his members' heads are at and nancyzresistance getting anything done prior to the election at this point >> but, $1,200 check with trump's john hancock is going to make it so that the people say, all right, i guess i should vote this guy just gave me $1,200 i will vote for him. we're not election people. but if you got more money in this market, the complacency would seem like a good idea. i continue to believe that the banks are not going to be good that goldman sachs and morgan stanley would be good but these are all etfs

why those two? those two don't have the bad loans i see surfacing. why someone downgraded america's best last week and why it looks like the bank of america can't get out of its way why wells fargo is not the stock to own and these guys are going to determine how earnings season looks and we know in the last couple days, carl, that we're going to have a series of banks. like what is citi up and is citi going to say our problems are done >> where do you see the real problems in the consumer, credit card portfolio or real estate >> some of all i think those are the areas that needed the help. i mean, i don't think, i think that you've been able to not pay rent so therefore the landlord has not paid the bank. i don't know why i listened to analyst this morning that said it's clear sailing from here what what is clear sailing? who is doing better? a couple restaurants who is doing better?

>> well, we know who is doing better the point you keep making. costco is doing better, home depot is doing better, lowe's doing better >> the rich get richer they don't borrow. they have their own cash flow. >> walmart is doing advertising today. multiple expansion carl, if i were a banker all i would be worried about is the bank examiners coming in at wells fargo and coming in at citi and saying you don't have the controls that we need. i mean, geez it's tough to buy them look at morgan stanley made a tremendous acquisition i thought last week. second one really distinguished them away from the bad loans that they never made anyway. but look at the stock. i mean, look at the regional banks. is this the quarter that they suddenly come out of their dormancy no i just think that this is the wrong way to -- jpmorgan would you let these stocks go. let's see what happens goldman i am very worried about

and the stock is up from 190 morgan stanley deserves to be higher but, carl, i wish these stocks were reporting at the end and not the beginning. >> yeah. we sometimes say that going into earning season jim, i wonder if there's a back story and a good note saying that traders at least the traders who actually follow the markets closely for a living and not the financial press have not been sort of a distracted by all the stimulus talk. it's more about the quality of treatments even if it's a case study of one and the case of regeneron and something that he did mention yesterday on "face the nation." take a listen. >> the president's case is a case of one. and that's what we call a case report and it is evidence of what is happening, but it's kind of the weakest evidence that you can get. the real evidence has to come about how good a drug is and what it will do on average it has to come from these larger clinical trials. these randomized clinical trials

which are the gold standard and that's where i'm going >> interesting piece over the weekend, too, jim, in the "times" what it means for pharma when they become a political signal >> i have known len, he was my first guest and they, they're trying to make as many doses as they can and i think he's frying it is a very hard drug to make the president was talking about supermarket -- i'm sorry, superman garb, yes, david, that's true. and i just think that len is trying to be conservative about what he can deliver. i think that david ricks can make more but just less of a complex cocktail i look forward to dr. fauci tonight on shepard smith becaue dr. fauci seems directly at odds

with the president at this point. david, you know. they're even quoting dr. fauci in a trump ad and dr. fauci is trying to say five administrations he's never endorsed anybody >> i saw that yesterday watching football and i was surprised to see dr. fauci in that ad and immediately after on twitter you saw a lot of his comments saying it was taken out of context and that, obviously, he would have never allowed it he never showed up in an ad like that, as you point out he took issue with being used in that fashion to the manufacturing issue, jim -- >> did you watch crowder for fantasy? >> i was watching, i was watching kansas city and las vegas. >> okay. i was going to say -- >> then i was watching the jets. >> i was going to warn you >> then i watched the cowboys and the giants, which was actually a good game horrible injury. >> do you think the ratings are going to be good because i have to tell you, some of the sports, i mean, my wife is watching the same time i'm doing my fantan a

lineup and games all over the place. i have to tell you, too many games. so many games at one point lakers winning the championship and some really important football games and now we've got the season going on monday night, tuesday night because of covid. there's a sports overload and somehow it's turning into bad ratings. >> yeah. game three was the lowest rated nba final game ever. prior to that the record was game two and prior to that the record low was game one so, something's going on there's a big debate over the weekend whether that's fans who have been turned off by the nba politically or, to your point, whether it's just saturation of content. >> what are you going to do? the yankees have a big game. >> they did play the season in a bubble it's not quite the same as people in the stands >> the titans were in a bubble, a covid bubble you know, i was thinking, you know, carl, you can't have len call the titans and say, listen,

i have some, not like the president. >> but back to this manufacturing issue that we started with before getting to nfl ratings. there are a lot of questions as to how many doses they will be able to manufacturer, jim. given as carl said, thankfully hospitalizations are way down but cases are not and we're still 50,000, 60,000 cases a day. if you want to give it to every single person who tests positive, not that you would maybe you want to see some symptoms before you do that. not going to be enough of it >> that's exactly what you need to do. the point that you get it. if you get tested at 2:00 and it comes back the next day that you have it, you really immediately need the regeneron cocktail. immediately. >> right and you got to get it infused. you have to go somewhere and get it you can't get a pill and pop that in your mouth >> and i think a lot of people are very concerned, including len, that there's an expectat n expectation, carl, after what the president did where oh, i,

too, can get that. that was just, the president certainly gave you no inkling that it can't be like that do we know how len is going to dispense this stuff? did the government buy all the doses? i know the government is entitled to it the government could own it. it's like they owned all the abbott tests but no one seems to like these immediate tests they love the overnight pcr test, especially the colleges, by the way >> i just want to hear him do the christopher, they sound identical. i think they may both be from queens will len do that for me some time >> i have to tell you, len is a great guy and he may call in and give it to you >> i had this watch. i won't go into it he with do it great. >> this watch. jim, if regeneron on track to

have 300,000 cases that's how many covid cases the world every day. that gives you a sense of where manufacturing is relative to the daily case load that we're seeing around the globe and we haven't yet mentioned what happened in recent weeks in italy and the uk and france. >> india >> not only are we hoping that doesn't turn into a death curve, but that we don't suffer the same dynamic here. >> remember, lilly may be the linchp linchpin david ricks has said a million that he can do i think david ricks and the manufacturing of lilly can exceed that. so, what you put together, maybe regeneron and maybe 1.6 million. let's say you get nat numbthat and then you can get things under control. a new handheld pcr that i had on friday that is rapidly accepted which gives you one and done

you can measure. it is a pcr and you get your results, you get your results in 20 minutes we are going to beat this thing. and science is going to beat it, but it's just going to take a little longer time than the preside president's optimism i'll call it optimism. david, i'm calling it optimism >> yes, you are. >> can i just do one thing can i wish dak prescott well as much as i'm an eagles fan, i like that guy. let's wish him well. >> we're all feeling that way today, jim plenty of research to get to a lot of initiations of snow and pepsi, twitter and futures are green. we'rba ia mee ckn montno dad, alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror?

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ing. snowflake is up on the premarket and cloud data platform and goldman is out with the buy. deutsche initiating buy and jpmorgan is a neutral at 247 goldman and jpm were among the book leading managers for the ipo just last month. jim, cloud migration and secure data sharing are strong tailwinds say goldman. >> i thought goldman's piece was very good. look, i was with some people this weekend who said, how can you defend that? how can you defend 100 times

sales? it's ridiculous. why can't someone build a better mouse trap the answer for that is that this thing is built for the cloud, but if you look at these, deutsche bank, too if you look at these reports, it's about how, it's really amazing how amazon's service and microsoft service and google service are second rate. and they literally do not talk to each other and if you want a product that can make it so you can get instant analysis, instant analysis of your data rather than a day that's on premise or whether be able to do, let's say some in a couple hours. you have to use snowflake. you need this to be able to handle your data and the pieces all say the same thing indispensable, carl. this company is indispensable. out of no where we don't even know why we do know this. if you have to have data inst t instantly, you have to hire

snowflake. >> can we give somebody a real-life example of how this helps a business, jim. i know i'm throwing that at you. >> that's all right. you have a lot of data that is stored in amazon web services. amazon web services these analysts say does not have a great system to be able to look at the data. so, what you have to do is you have to look at the data via, in the warehouse so to speak, via snowflake and then with tablo to find out what the data really means. and no wonder got so much stock that salesforce got so much stock. you know, these things if you read through jpmorgan's piece and they're a mutual on it you can still see why they like the darn thing it is just a better mouse trap and here's the worry, why you wouldn't want to buy amazon wakes up and says, okay, that's it. i'm putting these guys out of business i'll take my data business and i

can beat them. amazon's is eight years old. and that's not enough. you need to be able to run everything simultaneously in order to find out what is going on and nobody seems to be able to compare to snowflake in terms of me able to figure out your data figure out your data, david, may mean taking share from everybody else >> so, in realtime you're understanding changes that may be taking place that you can then quickly make changes to meet >> yes and in english >> customer demand and whatever it might be. and as opposed to waiting a day which would garner you more sales. >> that's the other thing. you don't need to be, i mean,ia don't need -- look, i like a great company which is easy to use but what they're doing is creating a group of systems now so that make it so regular people, not computer scientists can look low their data and there's still a lot of business that hasn't moved out of oracle

and ibm and we lisened to ibm last week and snowflake is the winner they're disrupting a $60 billion data management business and i think, i'll put my neck out, again. i think it makes sense i think you can buy it >> really, you can buy it here what is the multiple to revenues right there? >> 100 >> what changed? >> two weeks ago you're like don't buy it at 100. >> i'm sensitive to these analyst reports that lay out the problems with amazon that i didn't know. i didn't know the problems with azure. i thought they had clear sailing against snowflake. carl, these are good reports they changed my mind i stayed open. when the facts change, david, i change my mind what do you do, sir? >> i just ask questions, that's what i do. >> downgrade of cisco at citi. shifting purchasing decisions

which we'll talk about after the break and the opening bell in a few minutes. before we talk about tax-smart investing, what's new?

-well, audrey's expecting... -twins! grandparents! we want to put money aside for them, so...change in plans. alright, let's see what we can adjust. ♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. okay. mom, are you painting again? you could sell these. lemme guess, change in plans?

at fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. take a look at some of the leaders this morning apple is in a poll position almost up 3% here. as we're awaiting the expected debut of what we're calling the iphone 12 tomorrow and how ig is going to incorporate itself into day lives. the opening bell coming up in a couple minutes

let's get to our mad dash and minute and a half before we get started with trading for the week pepsi's the name >> five years of relative underperformance to pepsicos the group consumer package goods and

nicholas known for years and years and changes her view and says it's time now is the time to buy pepsi and they feel that this is a piece about just being able to make it so there's a rerating raising a price target remember, also, we're a stay at home, work at home economy and that means fritos and that means snacking and pepsico and i like this piece for the simple reason that this is the kind of stock that people at home can buy and, no, you can never just close your eyes. but this is the anti-snowflake you can buy some snowflake, if you have some pepsico because this pepsico piece is straight forward and consistent organic sales and i like it. >> you have for a long time. >> yes, but i've been wrong for four years, right. it's been underperforming. >> yeah. >> it's worth pointing out >> yeah. it is worth pointing out a lot of listen. it's important, it's important that we look at things in terms

of their performance versus their peer group and the s&p that does say a lot, jim >> i think when you think of pepsico, you think of the liquid i think of frito-lay and snacks and it's on fire i like the company very much here not expensive. >> it's definitely not just a beverage company you've helped investors understand that over the years here's the opening bell as we watch some of the red fill in. some of the other upgrades remind me of you this bench upgrade of ford they go to buy $10 target and new management, depleted pickup inventory reminds us of things you have been saying the last couple weeks >> jim farley the ceo whom i've met and know he's a car guy which helps because the other guy was a steel cabinet guy. i mean, david, i never felt that that jived but the great thing about this is that they don't want to lose money any more

i know that sounds like, wait, are you kidding me what company wants to lose money. but by getting rid of a lot of stuff that loses money and a lot of countries that lose money and focus on the f series tail wind and i always measure the f series, the trucks, by how much they cost used of which they are very expensive they hold their value. i come back and i say, you know what, this one is going to ten ford is going to ten, david. it's ford versus ge. i'm talking about that tonight >> ge. >> who will get to ten first >> it was a $10 recommendation on friday. >> i may have to spot larry a couple pennies there but i like that. who's starring in ford versus gm >> i don't be. >> hopefully matt damon. love matt damon. >> farley is matt damon. and who is larry >> i haven't thought about it

yet. i'll get to my casting thoughts in a moment. >> this is coming to me. >> is it >> yeah, it's definitely coming to me. >> you getting it? >> playing the boss in "tthe voc in season two. >> i'm not there on that one >> carl, he hasn't watched "the voice," carl >> i didn't know you had time to watch tv weren't you picking tomatoes in your suit. i said when i saw this and i didn't respond i was like, of course, the tomatoes demand respect. when you walk into their house, you wear a suit, right >> i don't like to get out of my suit it's really more of that i have a cup of coffee this is saturday morning, i get dressed up to go into my garden and then wait until you see this thing that i pick because this thing is, i don't now, david i'm going to send it to you because i don't know the heck it

is i hold it up this is a sign i'm puzzled. if you could tell me what this thing is i would love it. because it is someone told me to use it as a bird's nest. >> look at that. it's a gourd of some time. >> birdhouse but, see, that's the way you garden, carl i mean, a lot of people get into -- >> that whole scene is really nice i like that whole thing going on >> twitser recommended by deutsche bank. most people are very critical of me saying we don't think you should -- why do you do that is that to show off? how do you do that a good italian suit. are you never not trying to show how wealthy you are. it was a joke. >> i understood it as a joke >> no one else did >> who basically know you wear a suit 24/7. i still didn't know you gardened in one >> maybe your suit is the reason twitter is leading the s&p

24% on that deutsche upgrade as they go to 56 and, remember, pivotal upgraded the other day on the 23'rd >> there's in a tremendous move since the pandemic to find a place to advertise and twitter had the daily average users go higher and this is what is called a rerating. i want people to understand what a rerating is. what it is and pepsico, too. analysts are saying buyers will say i'm willing to pay more for twitter earnings david, that's not what we want we want earnings to go higher. not an analyst saying we should pay more for that same set of earnings that's what is going on with that twitter piece >> it's interesting. obviously, the stock is very strong as you see up 40, almost 50% year to date and to your point. by the way, a couple thoughts. dorsy is still the ceo i'm not sure how long that will continue at some point will he move up to

executive chai executive chair. >> you know something? >> no. remember elliot is still there they're on the board jesse cohen. wasn't he going to be in africa a lot of this year and a lot of their workforce they're letting work remotely, open ended. >> ned segel is very much the spokesperson of that company >> yeah. >> and ned came out with a very hard view that analysts do not recognize. the acceleration that they had now they're beginning to recognize. >> to a certain extent the market recognized which came back to a name you mentioned earlier, alphabet. to our point earlier on pepsico versus the nasdaq. broadly speaking, which sup 30% this year. and talking about ad platforms, jim. that's the most dominant one out there. >> it is very unnerving to see that that stock has not done anything in a lot of it. if you read through the snowflake pieces, a lot of them trash google cloud they just trash it and say it's going no where not even hitting the radar

screen which is wrong. i think it's doing better. have they managed to be able to get anything out of youtube? i don't think so remember the car >> of course, i remember when we used to talk about autonomous cars all the time. >> we always see it is declining. so, a lot of people are hoping that the house bill the antitrust, that's the savior of alphabet >> they have to split it up. >> split it up >> immediately and shrink to grow is much better focused. like the press release right now. >> yeah. >> if they get house, now people say -- >> you're still talking about the dominant platform. they have a monopoly insert their margins are incredible >> nobody cares. >> they generate enormous amounts of cash. >> you want to be at the top

i think the companies, 33 times earnings you take out the $100 billion in cash that they don't do anything with because you don't make any money on the interest and suddenly you have a company that is doing well everywhere and every single country picks on it but the stock does nothing >> it is not getting bought. it's not getting bought because it's not getting bought. >> wow i like that. >> it's genius after 33 years of reporting on financial news. >> maybe it's time for you to move to other kinds of news. >> no, thank you i'm staying right here don't make me. >> but, anyway, carl, i like good guy on the call ruth porat unbelievably good but they just don't -- they're not able to explain a story. these other bets the health care bet. they never talk about which i think is so good they always talk about how much more it costs to do searching and yet they're so dominant that you almost believe that they

don't want the justice department to go after them by saying, listen, things aren't that good. it's like when intel was so dominant amd didn't buy yet >> you have any updates for us no, do you you have more on this than i do. >> if they happen, i think we'll cover it but i don't have anything. >> i've got nothing either invidia is buying arm. and you would expect it given the language in the "wall street journal" when they use the words imminent you expect a sunday night board meeting and monday morning announceannouncement didn't happen. >> lisa sue is not telling anybody. >> you don't think they want to be bought. >> no. >> they just turned the place. they just literally turned it. >> do you know that is the fact? >> i had them on i had them on and they could be

saying, hey, listen, let's just go on and say we don't ever want to be bought >> they didn't do that >> no. do you know the passport for the web. web security if you just follow aquda you will know where this goes. up $112. okta never is talked about enough but a $31 billion company that literally makes it so that people know it's you like if you go on mlb.com. i don't know if you use mlb.com because you're mets fans and no reason to. it knows you that's how it knows you. that's what they do. they know you. that's okta and that's the stock to follow. >> stevie cohen era has just begun, my friend just you wait. >> my friend. >> carl knows i'm right.

>> i thought, i'm sure there is some going on with you, david, now that the yankees have to face what they are going to do next year. >> not enough to keep losing at the very end there >> do people have masks on >> jim, apple highest? >> apple is amazing. >> highest level since september 4th, jim >> but the analyst -- >> wonder what we are talking about the next 24 hours about this >> dominant 5g, but i will say this the guy uses the term super cycle. when you hear super cycle we had a fracking sand super cycle and now he's talking about cook kicks off super cycle. don't do that. don't set up expectations like that this piece is bad. >> the piece is bad. what are you expecting when we actually get the -- >> because you want expectations china demand a linchpin with

this president, you call china the linchpin he hates china that's the linchpin? he could tweet right now that he heard us, of course, only for another network that this is, no, i'm stopping this 5g cycle in its tracks if he knew that china is linchpin. >> 5g is a national security concern in this country which gets to the conversation you're talking about. >> that's what i'm talking about not tiktok >> not doing a lot here. it's very important. there is a super cycle going to take place here conceivably when people do finally get these handsets in their hands and can start to use the networks that are being built by our three major carriers and then still waiting for dish >> buy sky works if you think it is number one in terms of just sheer amount of 5g it's been going up i had marvel technology. and 5g makes it so if you want to watch, i watch all the

highlights of everything any blue circle is gone. you load netflix a network where you get to watch the movies. >> the consumer application side is yet to come much more powerfulimmediately sort of in the enterprise. more powerful in a factory, a fusaf facility that you have things that immediately have feedback because chips are on everything. no latency or even surgery think about what you'll be able to accomplish there with remote surgical procedures because you can move whatever it is you're moving from wherever you are immediately. there's no -- >> no stopping >> no latency. >> you're right. you'll be willing to take risks. carl, you can take risks that right now too much chance in something that is mission critical to use 4g here's what the technology told me is this thing is as good as a landline whatever a landline can do, 5g it can do better

and that is what makes 5g when you think about it there's absolutely no correlation with 4g which to a lot of these guys is saying pathetic versus 5g remember, it's all about latency. you're right, david. industrial let's say your driverless cars and gps. >> eventually the key behind the backbone behind autonomous vehicles if and when we finally do get there all of them communicating with each other and being able to use information. >> none of these analysts calls are going to a5g when you're talking to the analysts who cover sky works none are going to say it's incremental because it's not incremental it's something that i can't wait to get i think that tomorrow we're going to see this. but i don't like the expectations from grand entrance for iphone 12. keep the expectations lower. don't do this to tim cook and

his team this makes it sound like you'll never be able to get it there's so much demand carl, that's not good. that's not what you want going into a meeting don't buy the stock you're up for. and i love apple don't buy it buy walmart, carl. >> let's get to bob pisani and get a take on the broader market good morning, bob. >> good morning. happy monday four straight days up in the s&p 500. we moved 150 points in the s&p in four days we're now 75 points or so from the old high that was early september. got a little bit of a gradual melt up. last week on cyclicals and today on the old-fashioned mega caps let's take a look at the markets that are moving here and the sectors that are moving. i just want to note china the broadest china etf a new high for that china has been on a tear in the last few weeks tech also strong today and consumer discretionary remember last week we saw the

cyclical names like industrials and banks rallying this week more favoring towards the other areas here like tech and the old school industry names here if you look at some of the mega caps after that. just want to show that and put that up in the reopening stocks, too. airlines are a little weaker you see that last week they were doing well industrials were doing well. textron, 3m, honeywell these things tend to do better when the stimulus is doing better and instead as i mentioned, mega caps are strong today. they tend to do better when stimulus is not necessarily doing as well. you see apple, amazon, facebook, alphabet, microsoft all to the upside work from home beneficiaries th etsy and electronic arts they're also generally doing a little bit better this morning salesforce slightly to the downside so what matters to the markets right now. four things that are moving things number one the stimulus. why is everyone so obsessed with

stimulus and it's the bridge to the vaccine. that's what it is and the markets believe that the stimulus so far has been very successful keeping the economy afloat that's number one out there. the vaccine and the reopening story has been generally positive and that's been helping the earnings situation get to that in just a second. the contested election is still out there, but a little less concern the last few weeks you can see that in some of the volatility measures that we use here as for a blue sweep, that's still way down on the list hotly debated about the impact we'll talk about that more in the coming weeks if that emerges as a possibility here. in terms of earnings we're in the middle of earnings season and starting tomorrow here the good news is the numbers keep improving july 1st we were expecting 25% decline in earnings and that is awful, folks it's gotten better today 21%. why the analysts have been overestimating the downside and underestimating the positive,

frankly. this is very positive. normally analysts estimates tend to not get better. they tend to get worse because they tend to be too optimistic this is the opposite of what is happening and that's a good sign for earnings the other good sign and i have been emphasizing this. the early reporters have been killing it your fedexes and the other names that reported early. 22 companies reporting so far third quarter 20 have beaten and the average beat has been 25% that's an extraordinary number i keep emphasizing that and normally you see 3%, 4%, 5% and everybody is happy with that again, way above the estimates for the analysts and that indicates, again, analysts are being too conservative and as a result most of these companies, the majority of the companies reported have seen their fourth quarter numbers raised a little bit. what is the bad news what should we look out for? the bad news is that we're still hostage to the vaccine and the reopening story if this gets notably worse, that will impact the fourth quarter earnings. david, that's why you're seeing the volume on up days might

lighter than the volume on down days the analysts are concerned about what is going on and uncertain about the fourth quarter so there's not a lot of conviction as the market starts to melt up. but as you can see, carl, it's dragging people in four straight up days and powerful up days back to you. >> bob, thank you. the s&p making its first trip above 3,500 since early september. later on this morning arkansas governor asa hutchinson from the stimulus talks to how his state is handling the pandemic take a break here and be back in a minute my name is henry.

working within amazon transportation services, i really saw the challenge of climate change. we want to be sustainable, but when you have a truck covering over 300 miles, or you have flights going hundreds of miles, it's a bit more challenging. we are letting the data guide us to the best solution. it's inspiring to try to solve a problem that no one else has solved. that's super exciting.

steven king is no stranger to seeing his novels turn into movies over the weekend, he saw how theaters and chains are struggling he writes. >> i went to the movies last night first time since february. no problem social distancing saturday night, seven screens, four total customers including me and my nephew i feel terrible for the film

industry just a couple of days after we found out broadway is not going to open until may next year. >> wow i've tried to read every one of his books. he's incredible. short stories book just came out. he knows stories and story telling. for him to say that is just misery just trouble wow. that is unbelievable my wife wanted to go to the movies i said no. >> i like how you used one of the great books that became a movie and how you described it, jim. >> back to the decision to delay releases from our big studios, disney, our parent company universal. there is no calendar what are you even seeing in the movies right now >> are they even making movies >> i think they are making them. starting to make them again.

stephen king he's a hero. that he feels terrible for the film industry. what does that say for amc entertainment. trying o'so hard wow, different era a total roku, netflix triumph p. >> roku. >> for sure. sthas why we are seeing the street respond to some of those names. hanging on to 3,500 here back in a moment ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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oil prices are lower as supplies ease a bit. production resuming a bit in libya. that norwegian strike is over. and production after hurricane delta back we are back after this before we talk about tax-smart investing, what's new?

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let's go to the stock trading. >> ceo of levi strauss morgan stanley calls it overweight they are coming back i really like it is it the next -- i don't want to put it as the next like great -- you know. it is not lululemon but better than a lot of other apparel companies. i like levi strauss.

$16 robin hood stock meaning people who buy anything under $20. i have a robin hood stock on as my guest a spak sports acquisition corp eric grubman. he was a submarine commander you can buy a company he is running. a little $10 stock robin hood people, pay close attention. >> they are all $10. they all have a dream. >> i like that stock i like that guy. grubman is money trust me trust every spec >> we'll see you at 6:00 on "mad money. good morning, welcome to "sqwawk on the street. markets holding up at 3,500 as

we watch bank earnings, scotu and more >> our road map starts with the stimulus stalemate speaker pelosi says the talks are at an impasse. >> with talks stalled what is the impact for state and local government finances we are going to talk with the governor of arkansas, asa hutchenson astrazeneca and latest trials the president is now tweeting about both stimulus and supreme court hearings he says republicans are giving democrats a great deal of time to make statements are el tiff to the new supreme court

justice. personally, he would pull back, approve and go for stimulus for the people this is becoming clearer that his own party has some objections over the latest white house approval over the weekend, there was a tense phone call mark meadows. mnuchin and senate republicans i'm told they have a long list of complaints. increased funding for state and local governments and increasing for state and local credits including an expansion of obama care pelosi also pulled no punches and called the white house's latest offer grossly inadequate and stated we remain as an impasse. this war of words comes as it would appear they were coming closer together at least on

paper. the white house latest offer $1.8 trillion. upping money for state and local money to $300 billion. kids would receive $1,000 direct checks up from $500 and direct benefits of $400 week through january. now facing push back from both parties. administration called for extending paycheck protection program. the administration said the president is willing to meet and talk about this in person. back to you. the longer that this stalls. is it likely they'll need more money from the stimulus to be effective given that it is months now we've seen stimulus measures the longer that they delay, they'll need more money to make up the difference? >> there are two conflicting

views on this. the democrats will say that is absolutely the case. we are seeing case counts go up. more businesses go out of business that means the need becomes greater even as the price tag for this bill is smaller than the previous one republicans were hoping there would be a stronger recovery as president trump pushes for more openings of schools and businesses if the economy is stronger, maybe they won't need as much help from washington the problem is a fundamental difference over the way this pandemic is going to play out. that's one of the reasons why it has been so difficult to come to an agreement >> thank you it is a good place to start with our next guest chief strategist mike wilson good to have you back today. >> i'm thinking back to a note

you wrote in everythingly august where you said, we find it highly unlikely. doesn't mean we need to weather some uncertainty about it. are we still in that kind of inning >> still a question that hasn't been answered yet. ultimately, we will end up getting more fiscal stimulus but it may take until the election is finalized. we think there is enough stimulus in the pipeline for now to get us through year end until causing a risk for a double dip recession. and hope by the first quarter we'll have double digit stimulus to make sure it continues. it is messi. politics is no different

>> when we see the street start to shave q 4 numbers, what is the worry that post election we do end up something approaching stall speed q 4? >> our economists made those adjustments. there is only one in three chance which means fourth quarter will see some reduction that has been a big driver of this snap back not a recession. kind of a curtailment of the transit in the fourth quarter. that name would come in the weaker guidance. we got a little over cooked in august it doesn't mean we can't move forward next year and there

aren't terrific opportunities to move forward here. encouraging to kind of blackout some near term noise and try to find opportunities where we think recovery will be most beneficial for these stocks we haven't yet priced at. >> where do you see these opportunities. >> travel and leisure. services energy and areas clearly, the financials are an area we stuck our neck out a little bit one of the big miss pricings out there is back end interest rates. that is starting to become understood that is another area we could see an opportunity >> it is not as important who wins the election but closure to the process. a lot of people are speculating

for a messi or contested election that could go on for weeks. do you think the market is pricing that in yet or expects a normal procedural answer to the election >> given the fact that we are all talking about it, it has become a bigger concern that it would be a delayed result. whether a week or a month. we don't get that answer similar to 2000 with the hanging chad ultimately, we'll have an answer our suspicion is that by december 14, you'll have the answer another reason we could stay in this trading range ultimately, we'll have the result and move forward. with more volatility, if that

ends up being the case >> i wonder if you are hearing fromclients asking how is it possible that someone like larry kudlow could say another stimulus package would be great to have but not necessary and on the other side, have the chair of the federal reserve say the lack of one would be tragic. it seems to be an extraordinary amount of white space between those. >> look, this is politics at its best everyone has to defend its position our view is that we need further stimulus probably not as much as we thought two months ago quick frankly, the economy has recovered nicely we have enough stimulus to get us through year end. our base case is between

1,000,000,000,002 trillion and ends up getting passed the first quarter. we'll get stimulus ultimately if we need it there is a case to be made that maybe we don't need as much as people are saying. if that's the case, great. that means recovery can get on without it but if we need it, congress will deliver because the blow back will be so dramatic >> really quick, on multipliers between direct checks, ppp a lot of case being made that some of the first checks got saved and not spent. what is the policy for ranking those? >> everyone agrees we have to take care of those hit by the pandemic with unemployment

this recession is kind of the fault of nobody. people have been laid off more dramaticallythan they would have been. then of course, the debate comes down to stalt and local support. that's why the red and blue lines are really drawn that's the hang up here. once we get past the election, some of those hang ups go away that's why we are being held hostage in the near term frmt we'll get stimulus to those who needed and to those businesses who need it to survive and that stimulus will be done piece meal when the election is over. >> your point is good. these things are rarely done without some sense of urgency. >> thank you astrazeneca striking a deal with the u.s. government to develop its covid-19 antibody.

we have the latest >> more news in the space of antibody drugs for covid-19. this of course the kind of drug the president received and are being developed by other companies. astrazeneca plans to get in to phase three trials it will do two trials in the setting of preventing the disease of more than 6,000 people inside and outside the united states. the first looks for its ability to prevent infection for up to a year and for those exposed and used as a treatment to covid-19. the u.s. paying $486 million to support development and supply of up to 100,000 doses astrazeneca to start supplying those towards the end of 2020.

regeneron and eli lily had filed for emergency use. vir and glass co-smith kline. they could be available fairly kwiktly and act as potential prevention as well so kind of serving that bridge to vaccine role in multiple ways >> later this hour, don't miss arkansas governor. we'll talk to him about stimulus talks and how his state is looking. n'godot anywhere. we've got a lot more

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ "hmm's and ahh's" heard in-call. ♪

welcome back as the presidential election draws closer, we are looking at the policy health care is a part of the focus with the supreme court nominee of amy coney barrett under way. we are joined by jp morgan's jake taylor and frank as well. if coney barrett does make the supreme court, what does that mean for aca >> it is not a certainty she

would rule against it. we certainly know how she thinks about the mandate. she's disagreed with justice roberts in the past. a lot of the legal scholars tell us this is a much more technical issue and will likely be up held if the aca is upheld, that is good for providers because that provides access for 20 million americans and acute care for hospitals and lesser for other communities. >> do you agree with that 124. >> yes, i do if you look at two supreme courtroomings in july. the courtroomed 7-2 in favor of issue of severalability. you will likely see the court argue and the rest of the aca

will be allowed to stand >> you look a look at the potential of a blue wave how do you see the dominos falling. starting with the supreme court and going back to the white house? >> it is a complicated metric. >> it's sort of like heads you loose, tails you lose the election looking at the potential impact. if you get the blue wave, biden wins, democrats regain the senate, the market is very fearful of biden's option and what that could mean in return and the enrollment and can ib alliesing a marketable patient if trump were to win or republicans hold the senate, then you have the case both frank and i agree that

overhang likely gets resolved in a favorable way. eitherout come produces a measurable overhang. >> what listed that overhang in your opinion >> i think the worry over public option. >> i take it at its literal value. when investors become comfortable with that as a possibility. we have to way for it to play out. i think to the extend biden does get elected. that is for access to care good for providers from that point, we remain positive >> from the pandemic, all this uncertainty surrounding what the supreme court might do and the election does that embolden more of a medicare for all wing if there

is a blue wave even though biden has made more of an option they have pushed more of this medicare for all idea. do you think this health care crisis we are in right now might embolden that idea even more >> i don't think so. i think more than likely, you'll see biden talk about a never again idea for pandemics i think more of the focus from the biden administration would be beefing up infrastructure, testing, capabilities to avoid another pandemic we can't afford medicare for all. it came did you know by such a narrow margin, i cannot imagine

med i ka care for all to get passed even with biden administration and blue house and senate >> finally, health insurers have 3w78 more profitable than they were does a vaccine change that >> it certainly could. it has recovered some what from march and april and may. so many people to the advisors that utilization for your

expenses we hope we'll see a continuation but not until the degree that vaccine available that should drive a return to normal or a faster return to normal we think that would be positive utilization and provider for a return to normalization. an increase of expenses and return would be some what negative for the health. >> one would think there is plenty of pent up demand for procedures once things get, quote, back to normal. thank you for joining us >> thank you watching shares of dillards this morning up almost 33% as berkshire hathaway discloses nearly 6% stake in a family trust for members of his family. almost back to $57

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ticker xlc in the green again this morning up more than 1.5%. thanks to some of the biggest holdings like facebook and alphabet the biggest stand is twitter leaving the s&p and getting an upgrade with the firm pointing to improving growth during the second half of the year. up more than 50% in 2020 up 5.5% today. we'll take a quick break stay with us ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

welcome back here is your cnbc news update.

in minnesota, an e. tension of absentee ballots passes. statues were attorney down the demonstration scheduled ahead of columbus day. >> in los angeles, laker fans poured out into the streets. many fans did wear masks there were large crowds with very little social distancing. and two stanford researchers have won a nobel prize for economics for improving the methods in sales of auctions

back to you. see you in an hour stimulus talks stalled again in washington, d.c in a letter to congress, secretary mnuchin and chief of staff meadows said an all or nothing approach was unacceptable talk of unused ppp funds continue but what is the impact. with us now is arkansas governor asa hutchenson first off, do you feel your state needs additional aid >> not as much as the state needs it as those that are unemployed small businesses struggling under economic restrictions where the assistance is needed in aerkansas we never shut down

completely we are still dependent on the national recovery we need a stimulus package that is important for our state and for those that need to have this carry over until they get their jobs back. the small businesses that are hurt hospitality industry has struggled because of the restrictions that's what we need this package for. in terms of the state itself, we'll continue to have a balanced budget. every state is in a different situation. the states need relief but that's not as important. >> you'd like the money to go directly to them you are looking at the forecasted general revenue that is revised your revenues may be down a bit but they are not down

substantially, are they? >> we had to cut and trim our budget 5%. when coronavirus hit, we knew we'd have a down turn. we trimmed it. we tighten the belt. the economy did not go down as much as we thought we are running a surplus over our budget that's how we do things in this state. we tighten our belt. that doesn't help the individuals out there that are unemployed we lost that extended. we were paying $300 extra for extended unemployment benefits that has been reduced. that needs to be reinstated. those are the highest priorities >> what are you telling your senators what should they be negotiating for who represent your state in terms of ongoing talks >> the white house package is a

pretty good package because it does include relief for states while arkansas could use assistance i support relief for the states, the white house package has that it is important they try to negotiate something before the election i know it will be difficult but before the election is when the stimulus package would be most useful if you wait until after, it will be a longer ramp it could be a longer time in counting the votes it could be the dust has to settle we don't know how it is going to come out now is a good time people can come together. i hope it can be before the election it could be a trim down package. that's what i think our economy

needs. >> governmenter, we are looking at live pictures of senate judericiary this morning house members are back home. hasn't that ship sailed? >> no. they would be called back quickly if there was an agreement that was reached this would be the highest priority they have the closer you get to the election, the more difficult it is going to be it is a challenge. it might not happen. i'm saying they ought to work together to get it to happen you are really not that far apart with the house version and the white house version. i think they can come together it will take nancy pelosi to say let's do a deal. we'll come back and fight about the rest later >> you mention the balanced budget, going into the end of the year as the state looks to trim costs. what is the easiest tool you

have to use? is it short earning workweeks or furloughs or other effort? >> no. we've not had to do that so we've even with a 5% trim on the budget because we've run a surplus. we have a reserve fund we are able to use for specific needs in state government. if we had to put into the fund, we had a pool to dip into. for the services and the funding that came back from washington that helped as well. that's is what allowed us to use funding for the department of

health and used those funds to restart schools. the combination of things with good management puts us in fairly good position with the state. we look at it over a period of time six months down the road nine months down the road until we fully recover >> $1.4 million in stimulus checks were delivered to arkansas people. do you expect the same amount needed >> no. i think that could be reduced. whenever the first round of stimulus went out, our unemployment rate is double digit. it is down to 7.4% we've got thousands more that are working. so the stimulus package can actually be less there is a concern that we in

arkansas have that you can't spend ourselves completely out of this. we have to keep in mind that the federal deficit is something of concern. we realize that every dollar the federal government borrows and spends might help but we have to pay that back. we take a more conservative approach to the stimulus amount whatever is necessary but let's not blow the federal budget even more than we have to >> what in terms of approaching revenues you are saying nine months from now, we'll see how this stands a lot will depend on getting money to the people who need it how do you forecast what is coming on a revenue basis? >> it is hard to forecast. we are going down next year to a

5.9% state and individual income tax rate we have lowered taxes. that impacts our tax revenue we are going to be able to stick with that. but also the shift, we moved the income tax filing day forward making it harder to predict. we are looking for predictions next year not finalized yet but we expect revenue to be less our revenues are going to be down we are predicting that but we'll manage within that it is a challenge. that's why we need federal flexibility. the rate in which the federal government shares our medicaid

expenses now it is at an elevated level we need the next stimulus. those are the kind of flexibilities we are asking at the package. >> medicaid costs are important component. if you don't get that or states don't get that, i assume that is another thing you'll have to deal with in terms of the elevated rate you you are talking about from the feds. >> that's right. i'm confident they are going to get that done. the other part is that the cares act money we would receive for a state like arkansas would be $1.25 million. if in washington, they complain it hasn't all been spent yet the requirement is that it be spent by the end of the year we are trying to ib vest chunks

of that into rural broad want to help serve our school children if they have to learn and in businesses it is hard to spend that money by december 30 relying on the providers. another part of this needs to be suspension of time. >> it is allocated it is out there, we are not delaying it. it is getting into the economy. >> it will take time to get that money into the ground. >> exactly it takes a little while to expand a broad bant network. doesn't happen overnight governor, thank you for your time today >> good to be with you the s&p is within about 70 points of its all time closing high of 3,580 back in early september. we are around 3,512.

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walgreens co-coo told me in a session that flu shot demand is up sharply >> we think somewhere 30 to 50% more people will get a flu shot this season. these numbers are coming true as we speak here today. it tells you that people are much more aware of their health and prepared to protect themselves much more concerned about the differences between the symptoms of a common flu and the symptoms of covid this year >> that is one of the big worries, how to distinguish between symptoms of the flu and covid. a lot of them can be similar especially among the elderly united health care is reaching out to the most vulnerable members sending them a kit that

contains a termometer, tamiflu which needs to be taken within 24 hours and a covid test that can be administered via video visit. they are doing that trial with just 200,000 of their medicare members and something they'll watch closely. leslie, i hope you've gotten your flu shot. this will be a tough winter if you have to figure out which one of these you are suffering from. >> i am going to get that. 200,000 is a pretty large number interesting idea hopefully that is successful let's get over to dom chu. stocks are at the highs of the day. energy is lagging. the only s&p sector in the red this morning you've got consumer discretionary leading the way higher up about half a percent or

percent and a half spider ticker xly hit an all-time high since september 2. leading the sector higher forward on pace for the best day since june after an upgrade to buy from hold. other outperformers amazon prime, ulta beauty, etsy watch those retailers. amazon prime day this week more coming up after this break. ah!

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in this kun trir the uncertainty about stimulus and the weather turning colder what does the fourth quarter mean for the industry? joining us to day is isi's senior managing director david palmer good to see you, david >> good morning, carl. good to see you. >> interesting piece over in the "times" over the weekend actually, it was "the journal" about split picture in restaurants as the big chains add employees, open stores, revamp the drive throughs, and independents just don't see the recovery that the larger players are getting. is that the story of q-4 is it the story of 2021? >> well, it's shaping up to be that way we probably have seen already a closure rate and high single digits in the industry and that is overweight the pool service area and independents, as you said, so far if you look at just the chain, same-store sales numbers, fast food is positive. up maybe 4%.

that's mcdonald's and wendy's of the world are doing more than that, closer to 10% in recent weeks. full service if, you hook at the chains, the casual dining chains, they're down only 15% which is amazing given the fact that dining rooms mid teens or so of the restaurants throughout are closed and the ones that are open as you imagine are only something like 50% capacity. so the chains are really gaining a lot of share and they're going to survive you have to worry about this winter a lot of the independents are not -- are going to be facing a tough winter ahead >> and given as temperatures drop around the country, david, i wonder, is the battle between quick service and casual, is that a no-brainer at this point? i mean, it is all about quick service for the names that trade publicly >> there are some managements already thinking that that will be a benefit

you know, the vast majority, 80% of restaurant occasions are quick service occasions. so it's not a lot of shaur to be gained from full service but the outdoor dining occasions, majrle in toccasion playly in the northern areas are shutting down. and that is going to put pressure on those that don't have off premise businesses. you see some like chili's that are doing tremendous business off premise. and that plus the balance sheets of some of the players, cost savings. that's going to help them survive. the weaker chains and then after this is over, then obviously the market share gains and the pent up demand of older people, higher income people, is going to really help the survivors in the casual dining space thrive after this is hopefully over within a year or so. >> david, leslie picker here i'm curious in the channel checks what you learned about

the safety of employees that work in the restaurant be sector, the cashiers, be it a fast food chain or cooks delivery h men and women who are kind of on the front lines and have been throughout this pandemic here in the u.s has the cleanliness, the ppe procedures been enough to really ensure their safety? is there concern among employees that, you know, they could if there is enough ticking cases continuing to put their lives at risk by doing these jobs >> yeah and i zhaeextend that to labor availability right now if you're a fast food operator, you're finding it amazing there is not more labor available if you look at the low income jobs. they're down 16% or so versus high income jobs are down 1% to 2% so with that, you would think there would be high availability of labor

the combination of the not wanting to put themselves in harms way, together with the fact that for some reason this stimulus benefit has not burned off yet, we keep waiting for the low income consumer demand to fall off but, in fact, it has been strong and it has been there. as far as what -- from a safety standpoint, a lot of the restaurants are doing remarkably well if they have -- if the franchisee has eight restaurants, maybe one of them is dealing with an issue at any one tomb in terms of closures or sending employees back so they're dealing with it they're finding having a and b teams working there, the efficiencies have been through the roof the margin gains have been tremendous >> so what have you -- i remember you come on and talk about wage inflation i'll ask the question. the environment seems to have changed. but what does all that when you

just said mean for the prospect of it? >> they're not getting the wage deflation they thought they were going to get they're not seeing the relief there yet. so they're seeing efficiencies in terms of having the people that are working there work better and they're cranking that drive through. i mean it's amazing that these guys are doing positive comps with 90% of the business going through the drive through, in other words, less than half of their business through the front door so that's the fast food players. that's much p more brutal in terms of the margin reagency, but nobody is finding it easy to hire people just yet you just wonder if that shoe is going to drop one of these months >> david, good insight, obviously. incredible change in dynamics across the industry g to see you again. thanks >> great thank you very much. we're about a day away from apple's big iphone event

tomorrow, of course. we're watching the stock up almost 4% to $121 as we're getting set for an announcement about new iphones after weeks of delays "sawaly"tas a moment srtin is decision tech. find a stock based on your interests or what's trending. get real-time insights in your customized view of the market. it's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions. fidelity.

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good morning, it's 8:00 a.m. at apple headquarters in california it's 11:00 a.m. on wall street and "squawk alley" is live snowed snowed ♪ ♪ good morning, welcome to "squawk alley. p i'm carl quintanilla we're on top two of big events both will set the agenda for tech investors apple is surging above the highly anticipated iphone event tomorrow this hour we're going to break down the