and back on the campaign trail, president trump and joe biden are storming key battleground states and today marks the kickoff of earnings season. we'll bring you numbers from jpmorg jpmorgan, johnson sand j& johns blackrock. it is tuesday, october 13, "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and we were looking at strong moves yesterday primarily with the nasdaq and s&p was no slouch, it was up by about 1.6% and the dow up

over by 250 points and this morning you are seeing green arrows for the s&p 500 and nasdaq, nasdaq right now up by about 122 points in the future market and that is pretty impressive you are now talking about four days in a row that you have seen gains for the major averages all are within 5% of their 52 week highs and in fact the transports set a new all-time high yesterday too. right now the dow futures are indicated a little down by about 61 points. we're watching a lot of things that have been happening including news with johnson & johnson, and earnings are coming out too. and if you want to take a look at the treasury market, right now you will see that the ten year seems to be sitting just around 0.759%. so not far from where it has been >> yep, earnings are supposed to take the baton from stimulus hopes, which i don't know whether those are fleeting or not. but supposedly the earnings might be pretty good yesterday kind of weird all the

stay at home new age tech stuff was strong as i think the cyclical play petered out a little because of the worry that the consumer might get scared again in terms of leaving their home lockdowns are sudden will i oly out of stroke, but it doesn't mean that the consumer will go out and all of a sudden go inside restaurants, inside movie theaters, inside malls, inside stores who knows whether that happens with all these different states with big number with the infection. anyway, johnson & johnson, and we'll talk to the cfo, temporarily paused its covid-19 vaccine due to an unexplained illness in a study participant the development first reported by stat news notes that the study is not under a clinical hold, that is the more serious hold, and it is not immediately apparent whether the volunteer received the actual treatment or a placebo.

seems like that would be a key difference j & j says adverse events are an expected part of a clinical study. if they find out that it was the placebo -- >> i read through that lot because it seems to me like you'd be able to figure out pretty quickly if it was shutting down your entire thing. >> but you wouldn't -- that is why it is called a double blind study. you wouldn't want people knowing who had it and who didn't. somebody knows, i hope so. >> the thing i found striking about this, this is now the second one of these that we've had. astrazeneca as you know put a hold briefly internationally on their efforts, but by the way that effort i believe is not ongoing right now in the united states so if for example there was a hold on the astrazeneca project in the united states and a

separate hold now on the johnson & johnson one -- >> and this is not a hold on johnson & johnson, just a pause. a step below that. >> but the point i was trying to make is there was a pause if you want to use the word pause, hold, i know there is a distinction between the two, but there was also a pause on the astrazeneca program in the united states. if there also is a pause on the johns johnson & johnson program, then you are now down to pfizer and moderna as the most promising or the only other two that are even ongoing. so when you think about the time line for when these things become available, it could become more challenged >> in the like you to find the negative part of it. but i think the other one came back -- >> i don't know if you had realized, i had not realized that the -- >> there are thousands and

thousands of people in all these trials and you are talking about two cases that you don't even know will result in holds. so it may push out the dates, possibly >> would you have imagined that the astrazeneca program would be running every else in the world xecht t except the united states right now? >> i haven't thought about it. i haven't tried to imagine that. >> it means that it will be harder for the astrazeneca program to become available here in the united states in any kind of similar time line that is the point. >> okay. johnson & johnson is due it report earnings around 6:45 eastern and we'll bring you the interview with the company's cfo shortly after that report. meantime disney shares are getting a pop this morning, the company reporting a new restructuring plan for its media and entertainment divisions putting more emphasis on streaming. they will central liz the media business into a single

organization responsible for the content, distribution, sales and also of course the disney plus streaming service. here is bob chapek speaking yesterday on "closing bell." >> i would not characterize it as a response to covid i might say that covid accelerated the rate at which we made the transition. but the transition was going to happen anyway because essentially what we want to do is separate out the folks who make our wonderful content from the decision making in terms of where the prioritization is in terms of how it gets commercialized into the marketplace. >> and you might remember just last week activist investor dan loeb called on disney to end the company's dividend to die vervet more capital to streaming content. that is not exactly what is happening just yet, but he did say that we're pleased to see

that disney is focused on the same opportunity that makes us such enthusiastic shareholders investing heavily in the dtc business positioning disney to thrive in the next era of entertainment. so refocus on the content. probably going to be some layoffs also though as a function of that restructuring we'll see how it all looks quite soon meantime softbank, they are getting into the spac game a senior executive saying that the bank is planning to launch a blank check acquisition company in the coming weeks. he said the trendy investment vehicle will give the vision fund a new way of investing in private companies and allow public investors to access softbank's portfolio picks softbank itself of course is a publicly traded company, the vision fund not a publicly traded company of course when it comes to conflicts, the question is in

this day and age, whether the softbank spac could end up buying a softbank vision portfolio company and who ends upholding what but that is the chatter. >> and what is the point i don't get it just spacs are hot? >> just another vehicle to potentially more money and also to take companies public let's talk about dr. fauci, he was a guest on the news with shepard smith last night he addressed the controversy over the trump campaign's use of a sound bite in a political ad >> there are a lot of things going on that you would prefer did not happen like the ad which put me in a political context which i've spent my entire career staying out of political context.

that is not helpful. but i'm certainly not going to give up. this is too important a problem. >> dr. fauci also rejected the idea of widespread shutdowns. >> we're not talking about shutting anything down we're talking about using public health measures as a vehicle or a gateway to keeping the country open, to keeping the economy going. it is not an obstacle, it is actually an avenue to keeping the country open if we can convince people of that, we're in good shape. >> you can see more of tintervie right now on cnbc.com. and we've got so much coming up on the program today, two big tech stories to watch, we'll talk about those shortly what has now delayed amazon prime day and what it means for the stock. also the holiday shopping season, i don't want to suggest

that it has been delayed, it was delayed, but here it is. plus we'll get you ready for apple's big iphone launch event later today. all that and so much more, earnings ahead ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ aflac! now tell me, what does aflac do? aflac pays you money directly to help with unexpected medical bills. and is aflac health insurance? no, but it can help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover! that's right. are there any questions? -coach! -yes? can i get one of those cool blue blazers? you know i can't play favorites. alright let's talk coverage. it's go time! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover.

mmm hmm! get to know us at aflac.com ♪ you can go your own way ♪ go your own way your wireless. your rules.

only xfinity mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. and switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today.

welcome back two big days, apple unveiling its latest product and it is prime day at amazon. joining us now to talk about it is tom forte from d.a. davidson. good morning what should we expect? and i always ask this, are you supposed to have already bought on the news or the rumor are and sell on the news if you will on a day like today when apple comes out with all the new products >> in the case of apple, the fact that the stock hit a $2 trillion market cap without the single sale of a 5g iphone is remarkable but in this case when you think about the potential for 5g to result in multiple years of

product unit sales -- positive unit sales for apple, i think that you are a buyer on the event. historically you buy on the news and perhaps sell on the event, but given the potential for this to create a multiyear tail wind for the stock, you buy on the event. >> so there will be several phones that will be announced today. 5g of course part of all of those phones what are you expecting in terms of the various price points in terms of unit buying of a of those phones >> what is unique is the launch of the se earlier this calendar year as a lower price point option so it is possible that today's announcement may not have a dedicated low end phone and the se may have served that purpose. so really what you are looking for today is potentially the most expensive iphone ever when you think about the prospect of a large screen 5g and the device so i think what you are looking

for today is numerous phones as you pointed out that leverage the 5g network, including what should be the most expensive iphone to date >> and just so we're clear, at least as the rumors go, we're talking about an $1100 phone, right? >> absolutely, yes >> how big a market do you think that there is for an $1100 phone right now? >> i think there is a large market for a big format 5g iphone so i think that there is a tremendous amount of pent up demabd but what makes this situation unique is that the 5g network, especially in the united states, is not really ready for primetime. so i think what you will see is more phones being sold as networks upgrade over the next couple years and it moves from within areas of large cities to across the united states and i think really that is the

big opportunity and why apple stock has done so well into this upgrade cycle that it looks to be multiyear >> tom, i think that you are speaking hoe to the single issue that i here investors talks about and people in the communications industry, which is this is just -- that 5g is not widely available across the country. in fact the way the report suggests is that the phone will throttle between 5g and 4g partially to save battery, but i also imagine 5g just won't be there. so how much is going to be a super cycle this year versus really a super cycle next year or potentially pushed out a year beyond that? >> the argument that can be made if it is dependent on the network, you're right, '21 may be better than '20 but to the extent that you have pent up demand and consumers waiting multiple years to get

their hands on an iphone with a materially faster network, '20 should be quite good as well >> and the other big tech company, prime day, it had been delayed. here we are. it thousand comes ahenow comes e holidays what numbers should rest we we looking for? >> i expect to be a wonderful prime day, but a fourth quarter prime day is very different from a june/july prime day. this is about easing the pressure on the fulfillment center network from black friday/cyber monday and trying to recapture lost sales. i think amazon's inability to maximize revenue in the covid surge led to strong results for target, walmart, ebay, etsy, overstock, wayfair and this is about capturing as

much lost revenue in the fourth quarter for amazon >> so you are suggesting this is really just going to be a pull forward from holiday sales, it will effectively start now >> that is the goal. there is a bottleneckat the fulfillment centers for amazon they can't have all the products they want to have and 4e can't sell everything they want. so the goal is to ease the pressure on the system, get products sold early in the fourth quarter as many as possible and then free up more inventory space for later in the fourth quarter, black friday/cyber monday. >> tom, you made an interesting comment, this idea that they have struggled to fulfill in certain respects and they have. you question online, it appears that they have a product, however it is not shipping for two weeks, three weeks, four weeks. clearly not prime if you will coming the next day obviously. and that has moved including the sorkin family which gets so many prime boxes to go to walmart or

target or othther shops help dou think customers who were maybe amazon only prior to there are now walmart, target, potentially walmart plus in the future or once they get the logistics piece back relative to the supply constraints that they were having, that they get that business back as opposed to it going elsewhere. >> so an excellent question. and a very important point and i would argue and say lost customer amazon has retrained the consumer that unfortunately there are times when amazon can't get you the product in a timely manner and to their credit, walmart, target, overstock, wayfair, ebay have. and i think that is a huge problem and one of the big lessons and mistakes amazon made when it come to the company's ability to meet the demand surge caused by covid-19 >> and what does it mean for the

price of the stock then? >> so it means that the stock will still do well on the notion that there is intense demand for e-commerce including amazon, but they are leaving sales dollars and therefore market share dollars and stock price on the table. >> okay. tom, appreciate you walking us through both of these things fascinating perspectives on both look forward to seeing what happens and hopefully having you back to talk all about it. thank you. >> my pleasure we'll get quarterly results from jpmorgan and johnson & johnson this hour, and plus we'll hear from citigroup and delta air lines later this morning. check out the futures, you will see that there are green arrows for the s&p and for the nasdaq nasdaq actually up by another 145 points after the huge gains we saw yesterday dow a little under pressure, a little over 1% because of news

on covid we'll talk more about that this morning too. dow futures down by 52 points.

welcome back it is officially earnings season blackrock just reporting its numbers beating expectations adjusted earnings at $9.22 a share, better than the $7.80 the street was expecting revenue also beating consensus, $4.4 billion versus the $3.92 billion the street was looking for. in the third quarter they saw 7% annualized organic asset growth and 9% annualized organic fee growth $129 billion of inflows that

they stretched across all client types and asset classes. over the last 12 months, they say clients have given them $400 billion in new business and that is really something. we'll get the chance to talk to larry fink, he will join us at 7:00 a.m. to talk more about these results, talk about what he is seeing in the markets and much more. again, that is in just over a half hour's time right now though, time for the executive edge national federation of independent business is out with its mostly read. kate rogers is joining us with more hi, kate kate, i think we just lost her all right. let me tell you more again, these numbers just hitting. blackrock's earnings much better than anticipated stock up by about 0.4% part of what they said they saw is $47 billion that went into active strategies across equity,

fixed income, multiasset and alternatives because they are generating returns for clients when they need it most their portfolio managers generating alpha they say, 87% of taxable fixed income and 81% of fundamental active equity assets under management. it will be really interesting this morning to hear a little more about how larry fink feels about this because sometimes when you hear from those who have been watching the markets the longest, even though the markets are so strong and again you are talking about all three of the major averages, less than 5% away from the 52 week his, dow transports setting another new high yesterday and nasdaq only a couple percent away from its high when you hear from a lot of the people who watch markets the longest, they have concerns about what might be coming so interesting to hear what larry thinks about all this because he is seeing a huge inflow of more funds, people wanting to put more money to work in the markets.

joe. and coming up, the election countdown is on. bo boths on t boths on the campaign trail. and we're just 15 minutes away from reports from jpmorgan, johnson & johnson. right now here is a look at yesterday's winners and losers as business moves forward, we're all changing the way things get done. like how we redefine collaboration... how we come up with new ways to serve our customers... and deliver our products. but no matter how things change, one thing never will...

you can rely on the people and the network of at&t... to help keep your business connected. but she wanted someone who loves with the cats.ng. so, we got griswalda. dinner's almost ready. but one thing we could both agree on was getting geico to help with our renters insurance. yeah, switching and saving was really easy! drink it all up. good! could have used a little salt. visit geico.com and see how easy saving on renters insurance can be.

. futures at this hour, only the dow is in the red, done abo down about 51 points nasdaq after a big gain yesterday, up another solid 160 points this morning. and then the s&p up about 5. election day is now three weeks away president trump kicked off a

whirlwind schedule of rallies last night in florida. >> if you want to get out there, get out. one thing with me, the nice part, i went through it, now they say i'm immune, i feel so powerful i'll walk in that audience and kiss everyone in that audience i'll kiss the guys and the beautiful women and everybody. i'll give you a big fat kiss >> very animated last night. meanwhile, a senior adviser said yesterday that the president is pushing to hold two or are three campaign events per day at least in the short term. and former vice president biden held a drive-in rally in toledo toe ohio, attacking the president for his behavior >> his reckless personal conduct since his diagnosis has been unckoconsci unconscionable the longer donald trump is president, the more reckless he

seems to get >> the former vice president made two campaign stops in ohio, we believe, yesterday. joining us now to talk about the election and what to expect from today's bank earnings, mona, portfolioi portfolio manager and strategy analyst. and i was actually once again sort of talking about some of your thoughts, and that was about the move yesterday and the move yesterday was sort of a return to the excitement about stay -at-home stocks, maye because the sickly cam story, might be that is in question thousand because of a possible second wave and what that would come to consumers. >> we are getting momentum around the tech names prachperh of the big events around apple and amazon,but also

incrementally news out of j & j, and we're seeing a tick up in cases and perhaps tick up in hospitalizations in the u.s. although keep in mind, the death rate seems to be declining and the hope around the stimulus perhaps fading once more so it seems like we're back growth secular tech, the stay at home covid winners and cyclicals for now are taking a bit of a back seat. of course they have had a nice run since the beginning of this quarter really and since that 10% correction we saw in the s&p. so makes sense generally markets seem to be supported here, but the underlying drivers seem to be shifting a little bit >> we've seen this phenomenon again and again, so it was all about the stimulus for three, four -- actually for a week or two. well, longer than that, but this latest brouhaha about the

stimulus and i don't know if we're any closer now, but the market seems now to be focusing on something else whether we get a stimulus or not and it is almost like it gets desensitized to what the concerns were recently is it now focusing on how jpmorgan does, how johnson & johnson does, will it be a shift too ea to earnings? >> i think we were in a bit of void of information so the focus tended to be on political election news, focus on the stimulus now i do think that we'll get concrete numbers out of earnings, some nice indications of what companies are seeing for the third and fourth quarter and of course how they beat this quarter as well. and so i think that will be a good focus keep in mind the overarching theme and the reason why we're not seeing any dramatic selloffs is we still do have the ongoing support for monetary and while the stimulus may not happen now you, i think markets are comfortable that at some

point we will get stimulus, whether before election or early in the next term generally speaking, i do think that we're looking at an environment in 2021 where of course at some point also we'll get some approval of the vaccine, it will take some time to manufacture and distribute, but at some point there will be a return to perhaps a little bit more pre-crisis, pre-covid normals. and so people and investors are thinking about positioning for that in the weeks ahead. >> do you think at this point the blue wave scenario is -- that the market is comfortable with that or does the market still not know what to expect? >> yeah, i certainly feel like the narrative has shifted and we've seen it in different articles and really kind of playing out in the market as well there has been this shift to consensus where we will get not only a democratic president, perhaps a democratic congress, you are seeing it in polls and betting odds

of course we still have a good three weeks left and president trump is clearly getting out there more so we'll see how his narrative shifts in the next three weeks but given this new kind of consensus, it does seem like there is less of a chance now of at least that very contested election if we do get very clear decisive victory on november 3 both in person and in the mail-in ballots, i do think that one of the walls of worry for the market has been lifted and then of courseoff time a democratic congress, democratic president trump will mean a higher tax regime at some point. but perhaps markets are also thinking that there are offsets to this including the investment in areas like infrastructure, clean energy, like 5g technology perhaps. and then of course we're also seeing perhaps better or more stable u.s./china relations as well so there are some pros and cons,

but i think markets have gotten more comfortable with this overall. >> there are conflicting signals. maybe we learned a little from four years ago in 2016, but i think 538 nate ssilverhead is town to a 10% chance of a trump win. but you mentioned betting sites. i don't know what 40 cents mean. it is actually 65/40 so not percentages obviously it is a betting market but 40 cents, i don't know if i'd stop campaigning if i were joe biden. 40 cents, i mean, when i'm flipping a coin, if it is 60/40, and i've said this before, tails will come up once in a while or if i'm black or red on a roulette thing, there is always that green space that always hits for some reason so if it is not 50/50, you know,

65/40 isn't that much better >> we search learned our lesson from 016 and the electoral college does come down to the key four to six swing states so we see president trump out there now, let's see if that has any change in momentum what they say about the betting sites, look at the change in direction. and it was quite stable for a large period of time, there was not much change in direction where we really saw the change of direction spike up is after the debate last week so we started seeing joe biden move notably to the up side after that >> it really changed with covid because trump had been 55 going back a little bit further. and then it their row enarrowede republican convention. and then further after the super

spreader white house as people -- not me, but people like to rev to it as that. anyway, knmona, thank you. i can't imagine it could happen again where you'd have a 90/10 those charts that were like that and then about 8:00 that night, it was the most bizarre thing. that cannot happen again, i don't think. could it i can't imagine. >> it will be an interesting three week, yeah i think people are on the edge of their seats here. >> do you think a gdp number of 30 plus percent would change anything it is just a snap back, we'll hear that it is just a record, but it is after a down 35. so net/net, that is not necessarily -- not necessarily let the good times roll. >> yeah, i definitely think a good gdp number helps, but you need better unemployment rates and you need people feeling good if perhaps we get a stimulus deal, that could help.

but if we're starting to see cases and all that tick up, we'll have to see. >> although people didn't realize, it is the same unemployment rate as before the second obama election. same unemployment rate he was reelected with the same rate 7.9 or whatever it was anyway, bizarre. crazy times right now. mona, thank you. >> thank you, joe. coming up when we return, we are waiting for the results from johnson & johnson, we'll have those numbers as soon as they hit. and importantly, we'll speak with the company's cfo literally within 24 hours of that news about the pause on their vaccine. we'll talk about it. and later, don't mess our exclusive interview with black rock ceo larry fink. and you can watch us or listen to us live anytime on the cnbc

app.

i knew about the tremors. but when i started seeing things, i didn't know what was happening... so i kept it in. he started believing things that weren't true. i knew something was wrong... but i didn't say a word. during the course of their disease around 50% of people with parkinson's may experience hallucinations or delusions. but now, doctors are prescribing nuplazid. the only fda approved medicine... proven to significantly reduce hallucinations and delusions related to parkinson's. don't take nuplazid if you are allergic to its ingredients. nuplazid can increase the risk of death in elderly people with dementia-related psychosis and is not for treating symptoms unrelated to parkinson's disease. nuplazid can cause changes in heart rhythm

and should not be taken if you have certain abnormal heart rhythms or take other drugs that are known to cause changes in heart rhythm. tell your doctor about any changes in medicines you're taking. the most common side effects are swelling of the arms and legs and confusion. we spoke up and it made all the difference. ask your parkinson's specialist about nuplazid. we use 11. eleven. why do an expense report from your phone when you can do it from a machine that jams? i just emailed my wife's social security number to the entire company instead of hr, so... please come back. how hard is your business software working for you? with paycom, employees enter and manage their own hr data in one easy-to-use software. visit paycom.com for a free demo.

hon? first off, we love each other... welcome back johnson & johnson just reporting its results. straight over to meg terrill who has the numbers. >> good morning. it is a beat for johnson och jo&

johnson, adjusted earnings were $2.20. revenue coming in at $21.08 billion. analysts had estimated $20.2 billion. company also raising its full year guidance for sales by $1 billion and adjusted eps by 15 cents. citing what it calls the strength of recovery and strong underlying business fundamentals they do also say that better than expected procedure recovery for their medical devices unit this was of course very hard hit by the pandemic really seeing a beat across all of their segments, pharmaceuticals, medical devices and consumer products that growth driven in the u.s. byproducts like tylenol and d digestive health and also news that it had paused its vaccine trial dosing as they investigate an unexplained illness. we don't know if the person was

on placebo or the vaccine, but these are questions that will be reviewed by a data safety and monitoring board joining us now is j & j's chief financial officer joe wrcholk. thanks for being with us i want to ask you about this pause and your dosing in the covid-19 vaccine trial what can you tell us about what you know about what is going on right now? >> sure, good morning, meg thanks for being with me today what i would say is right now we're waiting for the independent drug safety monitoring board to do their analysis as your crew pointed out, we still didn't know he if that was the placebo armor the advantaging sin nation arm we're letting safety proetocols follow procedure procedure.sin . we're letting safety protocols follow procedure procedure.in nm we're letting safety protocols follow procedure procedure pauses are not uncommon. if you think about the vaccine trial we're conducting, it is

60,000 individuals, that is a large study. it should be somewhat expected that ultimate see a pause for an unexpected adverse event and we're just letting the science dictate here what it should do also is reassure the public inthat every scientific and ethical standard is being applied here and across the industry as we all search for a vaccine. >> and i think that the j and jchlgt aj and astrazeneca have the adeno vector >> you're right. >> okay. different mechanism. if it were to turn out that it was the same -- it was transverse whatever that incident was with astrazeneca, do you know if it is a similar spinal inflammation that we're talking about, similar to the astrazeneca? >> i would distinguish us from astrazeneca at this point in that ours is a pause, theirs was

a hold >> but i'm talking about the unexplain be e e ed illness, do know if it was the same? >> we don't know it was about 36 hours ago that we were advised by one of the sites about theed a sven event and we're lettin letting this independent board doing their analysis and we should have an answer in short order. >> you can help us understand not just the distinction between a pause and hold, but specifically on the astrazeneca vaccine program for example, other countries have begun testing that again the united states has not. is that because we're stricter about the approach, why is that? >> i wouldn't want to comment on astrazeneca's drug

the reason for a pause is for an adverse event to be investigated thoroughly a hold is really done at the order or the role of a regulatory health authority. so there is a very -- i think distinguishable difference although it seems similar semantically >> all right did you want to do -- go ahead, meg. >> sorry thank you, joe of course i want to ask you about the quarter and hopefully we'll get time for a question for you about that but thinking about the safety database that you have on this approach to doing vaccines, this is not your only vaccine based on this vector, this technology. >> that's correct. >> you have 100,000 people that you have given this vaccine to in different diseases, hiv,

ebola. have you seen anything like this before, what can you tell us about your comfort level with the safety here? >> we were very comfortable heading in to these clinical trials for the vaccine because of the depth of the scientific analysis that we had done and studies that we had done as you note, 100,000know, meg, 0 individuals were tested across those various disease states and we have not seen any significant safety issues. we know it's been well tolerated. again, we're going to let the independent data, drug safety monitoring board look through this data, do their analysis, and advise us appropriately. >> okay. let me break in real quickly, and jp morgan, i was going to look to see if the dow had moved. jp morgan is up, bidding 103.74 the revenue is above where expectations were. the number we're seeing if it's

clean is $2.92, which would be well boabove the $2.23 estimate we're currently seeing for wall street that equates to about $9.4 billion we've got some of the things that people are likely to pay attention to are some of the reserves that are being set up that didn't look like a very big ad at all at this point, which is what people have been talking about that some of that would wane this this most recently quarter because they thought that a lot of these banks had already reserved in the prior. $611 million is the third quarter provision for credit losses so didn't even reach into the, you know, it's a big bank. billion isn't what it used to be it didn't, at this point, reach a billion dollars. commercial banking revenue looks pretty good, 2.29 million.

consumer banking, $12.76 billion and people have metrics for all of these still out of all the banks, jp morgan book value was up 5% and it's at about $79, so you can see it's not at a one-time book like some of its lesser peers. we'll talk more about this we'll have marty miller on shortly about that gains up only $0.06. let's get back to another joe. joe is really coming back, isn't it biden, joe wolf, poor joe morgan love that man. god bless him. >> npr had a niece piece about him this morning joe wolf, thank you for sticking with us through that one more question on the bank scene, and i'm going to ask you about your quarter in the same question when do you expect to hear about the pause being lifted or how long until this potentially gets resolved and tell us about your quarter. you are a barometer of the

health of the health care industry, tell us about the recovery you're seeing. >> with respect to the safety board we're certainly going to let hem go through their protocols, it could be as small as a few days. hard to predict until they get the information they need, and thank you for acknowledging the quarter. it's a great testament to the 135,000 associates at johnson & johnson to, you know, pursue through a tumultuous would you say -- year, it speaks to the strength of our portfolio. pharmaceuticals is above market. consumer has a solid growth with a number of categories, stronger than what they were at this time last year. and medical devices, we saw almost a 35% decline in the second quarter was about 3 to 4% of a decline this quarter. a number of areas coming back specifically in the elective procedure area >> but of course we're heading into the colder months and case numbers are rising again

this of course means you might be able to enroll your trial faster if and when the pause is lifted for the rest of the business, how are you modeling the impact of covid for the rest of the year. >> we saw in the third quarter i would say a stabilization. we were down about 3 to 4% each month in the quarter where it was much more dramatic in terms of the movement in the second quarter where it improved dramatically each month as the quarter went on. what i will say is i give a ton of credit to the hospital systems. they know how to anticipate and treat all of their patients now. and they're not closing down entire sections or entire hospitals, to treat covid-19 patients they realize that there's some unintended consequences when you have a lock down that severe, and they have done a remarkable job with respect to ensuring that all patients can get the important procedures that they need >> yeah, and i have to ask you of course before the pause news came out about your vaccine, the

question was about timing for it because you have an advantage in that your vaccine is only one shot versus the others in the lead that are two shots. so your timing can go a bit faster what are you looking at in terms of potentially getting results from that phase 3 trial, and making that vaccine available? >> yeah, so meg, even with the pause, we're planning for success, looking at first quarter of next year is the time line that we have put out there. we are continuing to invest as if success will occur, so we're continuing to expand our manufacturing footprint to ensure that in the event we do receive approval that we're ready to go, and manufacture and distribute vaccines to as many people as might need them. >> how is it hard to figure out whether it's placebo or someone that received the vaccine, and do you not know which group is came from, and is it kept blinded so that no one really knows until the end of the trial? >> it will be unblinded to the

independent data safety board, joe. we do not know at johnson & johnson, but somebody does know. it's not that hard to figure out. it's just we don't know. >> you just don't. so you really don't. >> that's correct. >> but you have had the ait wor without serious side effects you're confident there's not a problem with that particular virus in terms of -- >> we're very comfortable the safety profile of the advax 26 platform that we have as meg noted, it's been tested on 100,000 patients across ebola, hiv, and so we're very very comfortable that we'll be able to address this. >> all right great. thank you. >> thank you >> meg >> joe, thanks for being with us this morning >> thank you, meg. have a good day. >> and you're welcome, meg oh, that joe both joes, okay. anyway, thank you, joe wolk. coming up larry fink, what he has to say about the latest

quarter, the state of the economy, the election and more and z.zeke emanuel discussing what we need to do as we head into colder weather. one would be wear a sweater would be a bit of advice you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc after my dvt blood clot... i wondered.. could another come around the corner? or could it play out differently? i wanted to help protect myself.

my doctor recommended eliquis. eliquis is proven to treat and help prevent another dvt or pe blood clot. almost 98 percent of patients on eliquis didn't experience another. -and eliquis has significantly less major bleeding than the standard treatment. eliquis is fda-approved and has both. don't stop eliquis unless your doctor tells you to. eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. don't take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. if you had a spinal injection while on eliquis call your doctor right away if you have tingling, numbness, or muscle weakness. while taking eliquis, you may bruise more easily- and it may take longer than usual for bleeding to stop. seek immediate medical care for sudden signs of bleeding, like unusual bruising. eliquis may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. what's around the corner could be your moment. ask your doctor about eliquis.

that selling carsarvana, 100% online wouldn't work. what's around the corner could be your moment. but we went to work. building an experience that lets you shop over 17,000 cars from home. creating a coast to coast network to deliver your car as soon as tomorrow. recruiting an army of customer advocates to make your experience incredible. and putting you in control of the whole thing with powerful technology. that's why we've become the nation's fastest growing retailer. because our customers love it. see for yourself, at carvana.com.

apple upping the stakes for products what it means for trend setters and investors. "squawk alley" today, watch and listen live on the cnbc app. tech stocks coming off their best day in a month as investors look towards a very busy earning season. blackrock ceo larry fink joins us to talk quarterly results, the markets and impacts on your investments. amazon prime day is underway and expected to bring in billions in sales. apple set to unveil the next iphone we'll take a look at both companies and how the events will impact bottom lines good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick skpand joe kern

take a look at u.s. equities futures, we have a lot of earnings news. dow looks like it would open 82 points nasdaq looking higher, 98 points higher the s&p 500 off about 3 points, we have that news on j and j, and now jp morgan, joe. >> and we could have a triple gain in the nasdaq and triple digit loss in the dow, but totally different constituents not totally different but they are different obviously. breaking news on the earnings front, jp morgan reporting results moments ago. i don't know if you watch, you're on late, but i have been talking about why i like bank results. >> i saw yesterday. >> i don't like them a lot you know, their net interest, but it's because wolk is everywhere during this period. i don't know if you saw me say that. >> i did see that yesterday, i'm on it. >> it was last week too.

>> i missed some of the comments last week, but i'm touched and honored either way for your lack of love of net interest margins, i make up for in gusto revenue, 29.9 million, eps nice beat, 2 pn.92 per share. why a big beat on the bottom line, provisions for credit losses were way below expectations, so the forecast ranged from 1.8 to $6 billion, depending who you looked at and they came in at 611 million, and included was $500 million of reserve release. really interesting to hear on the call exactly how that all plays out. either way, the bottom line of this is that provisions for bad loans was well below last quarter, well below the first quarter and well below expectations, hence the beat on the eps line that said, net interest income, of course is related to the yield curve was down down 9% year over year, coming

in at 13.1 billion the forecast was 13.5 billion. that shows the pressure on the core business that all of the banks are facing at the moment the fee income, though, did beat expectations that came in at 16.8 billion, up 7% year over year, decent beats in equity trading, decent beats in fixed income trading. the other thing was the noninterest expense came in higher than expected at 16.9 billion that might contain fines they had to pay yet we don't know if they're going to book them this quarter or last quarter look for that on the earnings quarter too. >> in terms of the provisioning, jamie diamond said basically back in the spring that he was expecting potentially this fall for things to get a bit dicier, did you think that that was just being cautious and now that we've started to see things play out that he's feeling better >> i think that those comments, if i'm thinking of the same ones, andrew, were probably about the economy as a whole,

and it just shows how much they provided for in the first two quarters as if to say we have already provided for the worst case scenario other than an additional 611 million this quarter, but if we get through this quarter's earnings season for the bankins and the same the is true across the commercial banks, the extra provisions are way low, like jp morgan today, what they were for q1 and q2, that is a big fluplus, even if economy gets worse, they have booked the provisions in the first couple of quarters of course they won't be fully in the clear until they're into next year, and releasing all of those back into earnings this is an encouraging sign. 611 million versus estimates that range from 1.8 billion to billion, depending on who you're looking at. >> thanks, wolf, jp morgan shares dow up by 1.4%

blackrock out with its quarterly results this morning we brought that to you earlier, for those who weren't turned in then, the firm reported adjusted earnings of $9.22. that was better than the 7.80 that the street expected revenue coming in well above consensus, 4.4 billion versus the 3.9 billion that the street was looking for. we're joined by larry fink, the chairman and ceo of blackrock, which is the world's largest asset manager and getting bigger all the time larry, thank you for joining us this morning let's talk a little bit about the results you've seen and what you think that's telling us. obviously better on every metric here, and the other number that jumped out, you were looking at $400 billion in assets at management growth, just in the last 12 months, $129 billion of influence in the quarter that we're talking about here this kind of says what we have seen with the markets all along. what are you seeing? >> hi becky, hi everyone yes, the quarter really identified what we have been

talking about for years, and that is building a comprehensive platform that is connecting our clients and having a platform that integrates risk technology that has products and assets across from alternatives to equities and fixed income and cash, both passive and index, and active it's really shown what we have been talking about as we built out this organization over the last 15 years, and i believe it's resonating now, so importantly with our clients our clients are looking for that comprehensive relationship with an asset manager that has a global reach and that has all of these products and ideas on their behalf and it's all about working with our clients related to whole

portfolio navigation that's probably the biggest transformation we're seeing in the asset management business. it's not about one's stock picking anymore, it's about providing your clients holistic approach across the spectrum of their portfolio and rtrying to help them design portfolios. that has been the case for many years in the institutional side. on the retail side, the advice side of now the retail platform, it is all about whole portfolio composition, and we are one of the leaders in that across the board, and i do believe this is one of the reasons why our consistency in terms of asset growth >> hey, larry, who are your retail customers i'm trying to get a little bit of an idea about how people are doing. are these very wealthy individuals, who are putting more money to work because they have more money during all of this time, are these average people who happen to have more catch because of things coming their way, being stimulus checks or other things.

it's surprising to see this much growth in your assets under management at a time when you know you're dealing with high unemployment, and people concerned about so many things too. >> i think i mentioned this at the end of the second quarter on the show we are seeing a record amount of retail participation in the marketplace. you report a lot about robin hood and the day traders, but across theboard, the average investor is putting more and more money to work, which is a good outcome i do believe that pandemic actually has created that fear of the future and a response is now a higher savings rates in america, a higher investment rate for the long-term so we're seeing across the board, not only in heamerica bu asia and europe, we're seeing a record amount for us ofinflows from across the board from retail investors, from the open architecture platforms of the large wire houses to the ria

channels that are growing quite rapidly in the united states, and in europe, i would have always said, the europeans have been less oriented towards equities over the last 20 years, and we're seeing more equity investments also in europe across the board so that reflects for us one of the most important statistics for us is we had $48 billion of active inflows of which very different than the industry. we had $10 billion of active inflows in our equity platform too. so it was across the board >> you know, larry, we have seen the markets perform so well. all of the major averages continuing to very near their 52 week highs the transports at an all time high once again, you're somebody who knows these markets well you have followed them for decades and decades, what concerns you, what do you see coming what's your feeling right now? >> i would tell you, actually, i'm not that concerned

i think it's more of the same. our central bank has identified that they are going to keep rates lower for longer i believe we will have some form of fiscal stimulus, whether it occurs this month or in january. i believe the europeans are focusing on a fiscal stimulus, and their central bank is very aggressive too with interest rates as low as they are, we're seeing more and more investors focusing on where they put their money how do they orient their whole portfolio to bemeet their long-term needs. so we have a strong conviction that the average investor still is under invested and they're going to have to be putting more and more money to work over the coming months and maybe years, so i believe we still have more to go on the up side, even in rising infection rates with

covid-19 fortunately with the rising infection rates, we are actually seeing less hospitalization, too, and we're able to deal with it quite a bit more. i'm sorry, joe, would you like to speak >> yeah, do you remember the days when we had the luxury of hoping for higher rates for retirees and pensions. there was a time when you said wow, we need to be doing this now, and i assume that you're like your opinion has evolved given the pandemic and what's happened and that's a luxury we can't afford anymore, to try and get some dry powder for the fed. this is the future this is the black swan event, so i guess we don't need to save up for dry powder when it's already happening, so have you given up on normalizing rates at this point? >> i would say for the long run, no, joe, i have not. i believe at this moment in time, we need to get over this black swan, as you call it we need the economy to find

those jobs back for the 10 million people who are out of work we are seeing, because of the tremendous effort by policy makers related to monetary policy, monetary policy, which i've always talked about creates for income inequality because monetary policy lifts financial assets and it is really mostly the wealthy people who own all the financial assets and that's why fiscal stimulus is so important, and this is why i think, you know, our chairman powell basically said we need fiscal stimulus, and i would agree with what he's saying. and so i would say right now we do not need normalization of interest rates until we can say safely that the economy has stabilized, that job creation is strong, and that we have an economy that is across the board, an economy for everybody. but let's be clear these deficits will matter

sometime in the future but it is not a problem for this moment, and i do believe the aggressive nature of the central bank behaviors is basically foretelling us that we should not worry about rising interest rates at this time so let's focus on rebuilding our economy over the next year or so, and so we can have a more broad based economic growth for everyone >> hey, larry, you mind staying with us for just a moment. we'd like to continue this conversation >> perfect >> okay. we're going to have a lot more from larry in just a couple of minutes. before we head to the break, though, wanted to take a quick check on the markets as we speak the you' you're looking at the dow, down 36 points right now, the nasdaq powering hirer, 135 points higher sdpr higher and the s&p 500 looking to open about 40 points higher "squawk box" returns with larry fink in just a moment.

as business moves forward, we're all changing the way things get done. like how we redefine collaboration... how we come up with new ways to serve our customers... and deliver our products. but no matter how things change, one thing never will... you can rely on the people and the network of at&t... to help keep your business connected.

rainy times square there welcome back to "squawk box. we are back now with blackrock's larry fink on earnings day powering through, larry. before we get back to that and to the economy, i did want to

ask you about esg because you've been a pioneer as we've reported, for many many years when you've written your annual letters. this year, most recently on the issue of climate, and yet some news just in the past couple of days, five senate democrats calling on blackrock to explain what they're calling, they're saying this is all rhetoric, larry, rather than truth, if you will in terms of the company's voting record when it comes to climate action they say quote one aspect of bh blackrock's voting, that would approve disclosure of election spending and lobbying, including through trade associations, they're specific about how that relates to climate can you speak to that, when you got that letter, what you thought. >> great question, andrew. i don't think any other firm has done more for climate in 2020 than blackrock we had over 1,200 engagements on

esg matters with our companies we invest in 950 of them were on climate. the majority of engagement is not in a proxy, and fortunately people look at what is done only in a small, small percent of all the business interactions the corporate stewartship actions we have with clinents and so they'r taking a small subset and trying to conflate our position and our role andrew, as you know, i asked every company to report under status b and since my later, there's been a 400% increase in companies reporting under sasby, and they have publicly said it's because of my ceo letter, and so we're doing more and more for public transparency related to

soe social issues, related to climate issues, and i do believe this is just the beginning in addition, we have now raised this year in over $25 billion in sustainable etfs that's more than double we raised all of last year. and so between what we are seeing in this very large reallocation of capital, plus our corporate stewartship engagement, no firm has that type of record yes, indeed, there are some companies that we voted with the companies and against some of the social agendas we are pushing our companies as much as we believe is possible we're long-term investors. we're not trying to disrupt a company to do something that would be very negative for their operations in a one year period of time. we're taking an intermediate to a long-term position with every company, and maybe to some

people, we're tolerating too much i don't agree with that, but everybody has an opinion but i do believe our consistency in terms of moving more and more corporations towards greater transparency through sasby and tcfd, our voting record and our engagement will show we're making that change we're not going to make a change in one year. we're focusing on the results over 5, 10, 20 years of making sure that alongside investor appetite that's moving into more sustainable strategies, we do believe more and more companies are moving that way, too and i will -- i'm very confident our results will show that we are doing as much if not more than any other company moving towards that objective but we are not going to be sacrificing a company that may have structural issues in any one year, but the pressure that we're going to be applying is going to be over a number of years so they can move forward and still build their company

for the future >> hey, larry, are you -- we always ask you about, you know, if there's a democratic nomination, have you had discussions about treasury secretary or maybe more appropriately, how about energy secretary? i think that might be -- you'd probably take either maybe you can do both. >> joe, thank you for that compliment this is not news it's been reported elsewhere this past summer, i told my board and my management team i am staying at blackrock, i have no intention of going to washington i have much more work to do. >> mr. funk goes to washington that's a best picture winner >> joe, but i never asked you. any thoughts for you, you know, if the trump administration wins. >> that would have been the last, oh, you mean in the next trump administration

i don't know i haven't considered that, larry. >> i think you should. we'll both know in, you know, 21 days. >> i'd still be doing fracking, larry. i'm not convinced we can end hurricanes and fires i'm not really convinced that we can change the entire global climate, but i think it's nice that you do as a money manager. >> hey, larry, while we have you here. >> lower the oceans. lower them >> thank you, joe. andrew, what can i do? >> exactly wile we have you here, i wanted to ask you just about what else is happening in the markets, and one of the things that we seem to be talking about virtually every day is a new spac and what you make of spacs, this idea that spacs are democratizing potentially the ipo process on one end, other people think it's a terrible compensation scheme for the sponsors and everybody else who's going to get burned when this is all over. where do you land, and how do you think about it >> i haven't spent much time on

spacs, it's not something that i focus on at all. generally when things are red hot as a product, generally we will have unfortunate accidents, but i do believe some of the spacs are going to transform themselves into very fine companies. in many cases, i think spacs could replace many private equity platforms because they could be another avenue for organizations or subsidiaries of organizations to be spun out so if spacs continue to grow in importance, i do believe it's going to be pressure on some private equity because you're going to see more money moving into these types of organizations, and i think this is why so many entrepreneurs are getting into it. let's be clear, when you have a blank check, the investors have to vote on the propriety of any investment and in they don't believe the propriety of the investment is

correct, they could vote it down when i just see the consistency and the speed in which these things are being developed, by every who's who in the world, we're going to have some accidents. i don't know who or what, but overall, i do believe these can present really good ideas, and a good way of unlocking, you know, maybe subsidiaries and companies and different organizations so let's be clear, there are going to be really good outcomes on some, depending on what they acquire, and because they only have a short period of time to define the organization, they may rush into it in an inappropriate way. hopefully the shareholders will vote against it and the spac goes away. >> before you go, one other question, are you advising clients to think about tax strategies potentially ahead of a potential win for biden? i ask because there's a view that next year taxes would go

up, capital gains rates would go up, and there could be tax strategies in terms of people trying to sell this year in advance of that, potentially, by the way, re-buying some of the same stocks, you can't buy the same stocks but other stocks immediately afterwards, what's your sense of that >> i think because now so many large companies have huge gains, i think unquestionably in, you know, the latter part of the 4th quarter, you're going to see people taking profits. that's not a strategy that happens, you know, only during elections and maybe changings of administrations, that happens every year when you have big gains, especially if they're capital gains, people are going to take the profits and re-purchase items in january we historically saw huge activity in december in etfs with people selling stocks, buying etfs and then reselling them back in january there's many strategies that you

see, but, you know, depending o who wins, i believe it's going to be very hard until the economy is really resettled and upward lifting that we can have a real dialogue on how we manage our deficits, and so i'm not as worrisome about where we're going to be next year related to tax strategies but let's be clear, from where we were in march, my gosh, the markets feel great the participation in the markets are large, and i do believe there's a lot of foundational reasons for that, even if front of the pandemic, but we're seeing much improvements in the global economies across the board, in our economy, we're back to about 80% of where we were, and the trends are looking good i think jp morgan's announcements today related to the reserve is a really great indication of the underlying strength that is beginning to occur in our economy

>> fair enough larry fink, it's always a pleasure to talk to you and get your perspective and insights on all of it. we appreciate it hope to do it again with you very very soon hopefully in person, sooner than later. >> i would love that i have my tie on now. >> we would love that too. we'll make it happen >> thanks, guys. >> joe. >> thanks, larry i think it had a lot of merit. heal the planet, fund the expansion, still be home in time for dinner you know, do energy and treasury i think that's got a lot of merit if you use your time effectively. let's run through the big earnings of the morning so far, jp morgan beating estimates, revenue came in ahead of expectations, citigroup expected to report at the top of the hour bring you the numbers and the reaction as soon as they hit and shares of j and j, lowering the premarket after reporting results. the company beat expectations does announced last night it has paused its covid-19 vaccine

trial after an unexplained illness in one of the volunteers and that has people's attention coming on after astrazeneca and vector has been used we'll see. concerning anyway. adds as we head to break, here's kr, -- cfo joseph volk about the time line to get on track. >> we're waiting for the independent drug safety monitoring board to do their analysis as your crew pointed out at the top of the hour. we don't know whether it's the placebo arm or vaccination arm we're letting safety protocols, follow proper procedure here, anwel d 'ljust have to wait for more information to unfold .. -twins! ♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. at fidelity, a change in plans

is always part of the plan.

keeping your oysters growing while keeping your business growing has you swamped. (♪ ) you need to hire i need indeed indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a shortlist of quality candidates from a resume data base so you can start hiring right away. claim your seventy-five-dollar credit when you post your first job at indeed.com/promo

hey, son! no dad, it's a video call. you got to move the phone in front of you like... like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most plus $0 commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

don't get mad. get e*trade it's time you make the rules. so join the 2 million people who have switched to xfinity mobile. you can choose from the latest phones or bring your own device and choose the amount of data that's right for you to save even more. and you'll get 5g at no extra cost. all on the most reliable network. so choose a data option that's right for you. get 5g included and save up to $400 dollars a year on the network rated #1 in customer satisfaction. it's your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile.

a live shot of the white house this morning we are watching two big tech stories this morning

we want to tell you about the first apple set to reveal this year's iphone line and could be the first redesign in two years. amazon's prime day, it's already underway, experts are predicting $6 billion in sales. that's a 40% higher number than last year. of course it had been delayed. we have both stories covered bertha coombs covering amazon's battle with walmart. we want to start with josh lipton on apple's iphone debut, and what's going to happen josh >> so andrew, apple's first lineup of 5g iphones, that's what we expect c.o. tim cook to announce today at this big event. the expectation is four new phones are on the way, complete with 5g connectivity, which promises faster data speeds for tasks like streaming games and movies apple's greatest chip, and longer battery life. there are a lot of iphone fans that can now be ready for an

upgrade. entering 2021, apple will have about 1 billion active iphones of which an estimated 420 million will be older than three years. but there could be head winds, too, one, the price. these new devices launch at a time of great economic turbulence apple could counter with stronger trade in and financing incentives another possible challenge, 5g coverage carriers are building out their 5g networks but coverage right now is still spotty. that's why munster argues that 5g adoption is more of a 2021 event. apple stock is up nearly 130% from its march low rebounding here in october after that sharp decline in september. now over to bertha who has more on amazon's prime day. bertha. >> thanks very much, josh, and amazon is going to have some apple things on sale prime day sales expected to top 6 billion in the u.s., 9 billion

globally, but prime day is shaping up to be much more competitive for amazon this year amazon's biggest deals are on its own device, offering 20 to 30% black friday sale discounts on tvs and those electronic discounts are being matched at target and walmart, which has a deal on a 70 inch roku tv for under 500 bucks. walmart's big save sale, though, started two days early, and will run through thursday so it's extending its deals as it looks to capitalize on the growth of its buy online curbside pickup service. that helped the ecommerce business double last quarter and it's betting it's going to help drive holiday sales now, providing an edge over amazon. interestingly, analysts note that prime day drives membership sign ups for amazon which helps fuel sales all year. walmart isn't doing that with the newly launched plus.

19% of walmart's new members had switched from amazon prime, joe, so they may be starting to take some market share there quietly. >> 70 inch for under 500 bertha, when did this happen 70 inch, under $500. that's technology, isn't it? >> it's a roku tvr t the samsungs are still four digit but you can get a humongous tv i shouldn't say it too loud because i'm sure my husband would want one in the bedroom, which is where i don't want it. >> i have tvs but i want this. and you throw in the prime, you know, you get that quick free delivery it doesn't seem to be synergistic with free movies at all, but it is, and it's just an

amazing business model, and that's why, well, used to be maybe still is. >> the interesting thing about all of this starting so early, joe, in a way it's almost retro. you're old enough like me, i remember as a kid, the sears toys catalog would come probably around halloween or so early november, and some how the pages of the barbie dream house would get dog eared and left around the house, that maybe that's what santa should bring us this is a little bit like that you start early. >> i remember when there used to be physical menus, instead of using a smartphone to take a picture of this thing that goes to safari where i have to find the appetizers, i can remember that even. anyway, the world is moving very quickly, and i don't like it no, i do like it bertha, thank you. we appreciate that here to dig deeper on apple and amazon is dan flak, senior research analyst at newberger

berman you make that point in comments here amazon prime, there's a lot of reasons to want that that have nothing to do with buying something and having it delivered. that's a great model. >> i think that's right. joe, good morning, i think the point with amazon is that they're really all about the customer, and if they can deliver a great experience, certainly having products delivered to one's home in a day or so, great content, pull it together in an easy and fun way. that's compelling, and you of course can layer on some of their cloud businesses, amazon web services serving enterprise customers. there are a number of growth engines underneath we continue to like the story. >> let's go and i know you want to talk apple and there's a lot happening there, what are you expecting? what are the highlights going to be, and it's been a long time since we, you know, demanded that apple come up with a flying car or something to continue its stock run.

now we know that the ecosystem and just these incremental improvements are enough to just keep apple on top it seems like. >> i think what we'll see today is certainly the first crop of 5g devices the first series, and there will be many more over the coming few years. what's important here in my view is really their ability to create this differentiated user experience, pulling together the hardware, the software, the services in a fun, easy, and secure way, and i think when we look out at apple over the next few years, they're going to have a bigger and bigger role in areas like health care with the watch and other parts of wearables. it's a story with multiple growth drivers, sitting on top of an ecosystem in what remains a challenging environment in so many aspects due to the pandemic, and of course the recession. >> and the price for, and if

people are going to pay up people that want the top aligned stuff for apple, it's not in elastic, right >> what they have been able to do, and we saw that even with the s.e. phone that they introduced in the spring, they're going to have devices at different price points i think what's important is that they provide this great user experience, and all of the different price points, and if an individual, if he or she wants to buy a device at the lower end, and over time, they might move up where they see the value, and so the key is delivering that great experience in a way that delights users and really empowers them this is a company that is about empowering others to build on top, and as we see during this extraordinary period with work-from-home, play from home, do everything remotely, technology is core to everything that's underway. >> yep all right, so what do you like more you don't really care. you just own apple and amazon, is that an idea?

>> you asked me earlier in the year for another couple of companies, i'll tell you 75% apple, 25% amazon at current prices, but we continue to like both names over the next couple of years not just because of what's going on today but a lot of the innovation that we see really impacting in a positive way their customers and ultimately their shareholders over the longer term. it's about creating value, joe >> okay. dan. dan flax, neuberger herman treasury secretary was i sent you jumbled letters, it's treasury secretary it's hard with jumbled letters when they're that long, when there's so many letters, right >> i'm out of practice with that >> i'm getting better and better you're never winning again if we ever come back. >> i haven't looked at the jumbo in months. when we come back, we have heard from blackrock and jp morgan, both handily beating the expectations for quarterly

results. up next we have citigroup. "squawk" will be right back.

welcome back disney shares are higher this morning. the company actually restructuring its media and entertainment divisions, putting

more emesis phasis on streaminga single organization responsible for content and distribution last week, dan lobe called on disney to end the dividend to divert more capital to streaming content. in a statement to cnbc, lobe said we're pleased to see disney is focused on the same opportunity that makes us enthusiastic shareholders investing heavily in the dtc business, positioning disney to thrive into the next era of entertainment. disney said it's look at all options including dividend but the ultimate decision on the dividend would be up to the board of directors again, restructuring is probably something that was in the works for a while before this. when we return, what a blue wave in washington could mean for the markets. "squawk box" will be right back.

not bad, blues brothers, the general view that the stock market is comfortable with a blue wave, a biden presidency, where perhaps the democrats also take the senate. it's becoming sort of more prevalent to see it talked about and written but senior economics

reporter, steve liesman passed over again by those nobel people he joins us now with a reminder about how bad market predictions were we didn't get to talk about 2006 and those guys, are they any good, steve? anyway, do your report, maybe! it's used every day, joe, and they were pretty ground breaking ideas for how all kinds of options happen yeah, i love reading up on this stuff when it happens. it's a corner of the world i didn't know that much about but i read up on it. wait a second, i know that from here let me talk about this other thing for a second we can come back to the nobel prize i didn't get again the stock market does look to be at ease with a biden victory, a clean democratic sweep we have been here before and it was the wrong take in 2016 the polls had it wrong and the experts also had the market reaction wrong let's see what it's predicting

now. the s&p has risen in recent weeks along with the value of a contract predicting a democratic clean sweep as markets appear to be more comfortable with democratic control predicting how the market will react after the election based on how it works before, here's headlines we pulled up citing a forecast by web bush, look for a 50% crash in stocks if president trump won, quoting four money managers predicted a swift selloff and a careful academic study by two well regarded economists, estimated a 10 to 15% selloff in global stocks they were all correct for about three hours. stocks crashed overnight, as you'll remember during the 2016 e elect election and rallied 14 months during the trump presidency. what mistakes were made? there was over estimation in the negative economic impact of the trade war that did come to pass later on

immigration policies, and the overall atmosphere of policy uncertainty. a biggest ma estimation of defi. under estimations, the tax cut, economic effects and is the impact of deregulation from the trump administration also, experts probably underestimating their own biases of course things are different this time. there's the covid pandemic the markets positive take oncoming stimulus from democrats and maybe from republicans, and a fed pledging easy monitor policy for years you have to exercise caution here how the market seems to trade before an election may not tell you how it's going to trade afterwards, and joe, the thing i hated most was the academic study. it looked careful, tried to show how the market reacted to a win in the debate. it looked like the market was concerned with a trump victory let you know about 3:00 a.m. on

the evening of the election, that changed entirely. >> there are a lot of times where, you know, in a lot of different areas, steve, it's the consensus just seems to be wrong, and i mean, it happens in sports a lot of times. i remember all the way back to, what was it, villanova, georgetown, it was like 99%. i just can't imagine that it could happen again but i'm not saying that it's impossible, and i'm talking about, you know, that 538, 90, biden trump, that's where it was about 8:00 that night, just watching it happen watching someone cry on a cable network as it was happening. i can't remember who that was. anyway, just would be too weird to happen again. people learned something four years ago, did they not, steve, or not >> they did, joe it's interesting to say. we at cnbc, we're doing a very

careful battleground states poll, our states have changed polls in an attempt to address the shortcomings we made changes in how we do that other pollsters have i would reiterate, the national polls had it right the state polls were wrong national in terms of the popular vote, have difficulty estimating how the electoral college will break. there has been an attempt to change how they do it, make sure they're reaching all of the people that will come out. still, the pollsters, joe, can never know who is coming out and that break down. that is something that is simply unknowable and can change things a big fan of the science of polling. i have been doing it for i don't know, 15, 16 years now, i stand by the results, but the results don't necessarily stand by reality all the time >> that's the good thing eventually, you know, the people eventual eventually vote and we know. then we forget quickly as we did from four years ago, nobody seemed to learn a lesson

thank you, steve liesman, and better luck next year, you never know becky. >> polls are one way of trying to figure out who's going to win. watching the markets are another. they're pretty good at predicting elections, too. ryan dietrich, senior strategist the market has been calm at this point, do you think they are predicting one side or the other winning? >> well, we think it's a lot closer than what the polls see since august 3rd, s&p is up over 7% when you go back in history since the great depression, when the s&p is up that much three months before an election, the incumbent president has never lost, they're three for three winning. that's a small sample size 2020 is different. but when you consider real per capita incomes up this year, i know it's because of the c.a.r.e.s act, put a disclaimer

a weak u.s. dollar, you have big things factors with the gdp number we're lakely goiikely goo see. we think it's closer like a coin flip it's closer than what the experts are saying if you pay attention to what the market is telling us and the economy in our view >> which is why you are saying that you're taking a barbell approach to this, what does that mean >> absolutely. you know, barbell approach means stick with who got you there and who might take over if the economy does better. look at technology and communication, those are where the earnings are come from that's where a lot of growth is going to come from look at what tech did yesterday. huge day obviously, and you could say maybe a pro president trump play the other side of things is the cyclical value we really like those materials we like industrials. i mean, those are taking major leadership if the economy opens up and does better next year, that group can do well. pick a favorite sector the barbell approach is a nice way for your averaging best.

nice gains the next 12 to 18 months >> thank you 21 days left, i'm sure we'll talk to you again before we get towards that election. andrew. >> thanks, becky when we come back, a lot more on the other side of this break citi earnings, we'll have them for you and instant analysis when squawk returns right after this congratulations! welcome to the aflac program. aflac! now tell me, what does aflac do? aflac pays you money directly to help with unexpected medical bills. and is aflac health insurance? no, but it can help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover! that's right. are there any questions? -coach! -yes? can i get one of those cool blue blazers? you know i can't play favorites. alright let's talk coverage. it's go time! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover.

mmm hmm! get to know us at aflac.com and then found the home of my dreams. but my home of my dreams needed some work sofi was the first lender that even offered a personal loan. i didn't even know that was an option. the personal loan let us renovate our single family house into a multi-unit home. and i get to live in this beautiful house with this beautiful kitchen and it's all thanks to sofi.

and i geand sweetie canis coloryou just be... gentle with the pens. okey. okey. i know. gentle..gentle new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a short list of quality candidates from our resume database so you can start hiring right away. claim your seventy five dollar credit, when you post your first job at indeed.com/home.

we got some breaking news, citi out with third quarter results, we want to get straight . >> eps 140 the forecast was $0.93 a nice beat on both lines. why the big beat on eps, provisions were lower than expected provisions for bad loans. the forecast which had a big range, the median around 4 billion. lower than expected and much lower than the number last quarter in the area, which was 7.9. it's gone from 7.9 to 2.3 billion. for comparison, jp morgan's q2 was 10.5 to 611. citi had a similar theme, a big improvement on credit losses, much below expected. not quite to the scale of jp morgan operating expense, 10.9 billion is elevated.

they have booked the full fine that was put on them recently because of that payment to revlon, which is booked this quarter. expenses are higher than expected on the trading room, which we didn't talk about with jp morgan, a theme here for both of them, which is that we're massively up year over year in trading. both fixed income and equities, down quarter over quarter, which highlights where we are in the q1, q2, ahead of where we were at this time last year but not quite as strong as second quarter. we'll see how that plays out for the likes of morgan stanley and goldman sachs. citi group, i don't know if we've got the share price. similar themes to jp morgan, improvement on provisions for bad loans but not quite to the scale of jp morgan, up 2%. >> that's what i was going to

ask you real quick i think so many investors are focused on the provisioning issue, not so much as it relates specifically to citigroup but what it may say about the economy and where we are, and where we're going. you're suggesting it's not to the same degree, why. >> citi went from 7.9 billion to 2.3 billion. the theme is key that both lower than the central forecast. the forecasts were unbelievably wide it's kind of hard to compare it for this particular measure for st citis it ranged from 2.5 billion. it's hard to put your finger on. this needs to be paired up with what the management team says on commentary, what they factored in to get to these numbers, and whether they see this as turning the corner that we have bottomed and from here, things will improve or whether this is a oneoff quarter and if we don't

get stimulus, the next quarter is going to see provisions spike again, et cetera, et cetera. >> wolf, great reporting, we're going see you in a bit citi one of the big financial institutions to post quarterly results, along with blackrock, we spoke with chairman and ceo, larry fink, and he made sure to single out retail investors and record participation in the markets. >> across the board, the average investor is putting more and more money to work, which is a good outcome i do believe that pandemic actually has created that fear of the future, and a response is now a higher savings rates in america. a higher investment rate for the long-term. >> check out shares of black rock right now with its premarket move today the company getting very close to $100 billion market cap

joining us for reaction to this, and all of this morning's bank results, marty mosby, director of bank and equity strategies. good morning to you. i don't know if you want to take jp morgan, citi, we could lump those together and put blackrock in somewhat of a different category give me your headline this morning on all of this. >> well, the key thing is not just for these two banks but i think the rest of this earnings season we're going to see the loan loss provisions are down. andrew, i have been talking to you about the accounting cecil has driven a very dichotomy answer the real losses won't be realized until next year there's a gap that we have never seen historically, as the headline economic numbers got better going into the third quarter, the provisions and the accounting mandated that you didn't need to build anymore

you had provided for all of that that we had in the second quarter, as it troughed out and got better, the accounting drove these answers that we're seeing, and that's driving the earnings. the critical thing about this is that there's three things that matter in a recession for banks. are you being able to sustain your dividend. what we're seeing is both of these banks are out earning their dividend right now are you being able to grow your tangible book value. jp morgan, literally grew its book value 5% over last year and are you being able to build allowance for the potential losses you might have. we're two to three times higher in building, than we were in 2008 these banks are succeeding in what matters during a recession. >> this is a point that wolk just made, and maybe you can explain, why is there a wide divergence in terms of what the

provisions look like the provision piece of this is what so many are looking at these banks as bellwethers for the economy are paying attention to. >> the diversion, you have to look at the composition of the two loan portfolios, when you're looking at citigroup, you have much more of an international portfolio. when you're looking at jp morgan, you're seeing much more of a consumer portfolio with wholesale and commercial pieces so that business side is what you're seeing the benefit on from jp morgan it's really a commercial lending being a lot less need for reserve build this particular quarter. relative to what we're seeing in citigroup, but all in all, what we had was a build prior to losses, now not seeing losses in that charge off, so relatively fla flat and we'll be able to flatten out the provision until we see the real losses go up next year. >> to the extent that you can look at these earnings and extrapolate out for the rest of

the industry, what do you think the lesson is? >> what we're going to see is this, provisioning is going to be down. what's been the real gift of this year has been the fee income has been offsetting net interest income declines what we're seeing with capital markets, investment banking, that's been a real positive. what're seeing as we go into mortgage banking has been a big positive smaller banks, the ppe program, when you look at the big banks, jp was 1% year over year there have been favorable things that have helped these banks build provisioning, while not hurting their earnings too badly. >> and in terms of which bank, i mean, looking at these earnings now, as an analyst, that you would recommend to investors, are you across the board with the big banks? is there one or two that you

like better? >> there's been a common theme that, you know, the bigger banks don't have the credit risks, they have the capital markets. that's been very popular, the goldman sachs, morgan stanleys, obviously don't have the credit risk and have performed well relative to the group. what we'll now see is there's going to be winners and losers given the dislocation that's going to come from this virus, and the behavioral changes that are going to happen. certain industries are going to be hit harder. concentration, those types of injuries, be it travel, office space in urban jaareas, whethero not you're in an urban area and rural area many of the community banks and regional banks are positioned very well. they're seeing influx of population, not an exit of population, and then depending on what state you're in, is your economy open or shut down longer it's going to have lingering

effects on which banks are going to do well we believe that a little bit different angle than what we have talked about in the past. finding out these reginaonal and community banks could be seeing expansion while the rest of the industry will have to go through the recognition of losses. >> give us a name or two, marty, that you like. >> again, regional banks, if you look at regions bank that kind of has a better view of this, also can defend against its net interest margin. that's the type of bank we would be looking for in a sense of more regional in nature, more rural in nature, and less of these big products that we just don't know how it's going to end up as we go into next year >> okay. marty mosby, always good to see you. appreciate it. >> thanks. thanks for having me. >> thank you becky? when we come back, likely

the most critical question surrounding the pandemic in the united states, why is our death rate higher than so many other countries and what can we do about it dr. zeke emanuel will join us next. don't miss a very special interview on "squawk box" with bill gates about the coronavirus, vaccines and much more stayun ted we'll be back after a quick break.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

welcome back to "squawk box," futures right now are about what we have seen most of the morning, after some dow components the nasdaq had a big gain yesterday and is adding to those gains. technology is this morning as you can see up 123 points and the s&p indicated up as well everything was up yesterday. but the dow, diverging a little bit today.

andrew. >> the other one to watch, joe, right now, is johnson & johnson reporting top and bottom line beats for the latest quarter and the company raising full year sales and adjusted eps guidance after j and j said late yesterday and this is the piece a lot of people are looking at, it's temporarily paused its covid-19 trial due to an unexplained illness in a study participant. we spoke to the cfo in the 6:00 a.m. hour of the program. >> we're waiting for the independent drug safety monitoring board to do their analysis as your crew pointed out, we don't know whether it's the placebo arm or vaccination arm. we're letting safety protocols follow proper procedure here, and we'll have to wait for more information to unfold. >> we should note, it is unclear how long the pause will last though stiometimes in clinical trials, they're only a few days, and some have looked at pauses

like this as credibility enhancers, frankly, of the quote unquote process. becky. >> andrew thanks, for more on the news from johnson & johnson, let's bring in dr. zeke emanuel, the former white house, under president obama, and he's currently an informal adviser to the joe biden campaign and the covid-19 and vaccine recommendations. by the way, we coauthors a research letter for the journal of american medical association comparing u.s. covid-19 fatalities to those of larger countries. let's start with the news from j and j. does this concern you? >> well, anytime there's a serious adverse event, it has to concern you, but i think as j and j's cfo explained, you know, you have to let the process e

involv evolve you have to examine what the situation was, the adverse event, was it related to the vaccine or pla see bcebo or preexisting condition. those are the questions researchers will look at and try to cover in the next few hours then we'll find out more if it's in the arm of the vaccine, it raises serious questions because you only have a few thousand people. one adverse event is serious, especially considering a vaccine that you're going to roll out to tens, hundreds, maybe billions of people. that's the ultimate concern, and this is actually standard process for every research study. you get a serious adverse event, you investigate it. >> yeah, it happens all the time it's just the world is not always watching so closely to see what the developments are. probably worth pointing out that the cfo of johnson & johnson pointed out they don't know the

answers because they have turned it over to independent investigators, that is what beefs the credibility around it. the cfo has no idea, even though it was 36 hours ago, whether this was a placebo patient or in a vaccine. >> and they have been carefully collaborating with the nih on this trial, and that i think, should give the american public some reassurance that this was going to be done thoroughly and to the highest scientific standards. >> right dr. emanuel, let's talk about that paper that you wrote. you found that the united states did have higher death rates from covid. i think the big question is was that spg that was taking place early on in the pandemic, and that has improved since then and what have you found? tell us a little bit about your stu study. >> what we did is to take the united states mortality from covid, compared it to 18 countries, high income countries like japan, and australia, canada and germany

and also the countries that were hit hard at the start, italy, spain, france, and other european countries and we have looked at the whole period, and compared to most countries, we actually, the united states, has done poorly even if you include the early phase, but if you exclude the early phase, march and april, when many countries were overwhelmed, especially places like italy and spain, and you exclude that, and look at say, may, after countries had experience, got their arms around how to manage this virus, it turns out the united states is extraordinarily bad, even compared to places like italy. we had from may 10th to today, roughly 90,000 more deaths than we should have, had we followed italy's course 90,000 americans who died needlessly, as i have pointed out before, italy didn't have anything special or different in

terms of treatment, vaccines, diagnostics, compared to the united states. what they had is better public health implementation of the public health measures and that actually could have saved tens of thousands of lives in the united states, and we can see that when we compare our experience to those of other countries. >> what are you talking about in terms of reactions do you mean people wearing masks? do you mean contact tracing? do you mean testing that's put out? how much of this do you think falls on the health care system as a fault, and how much of it falls on public policy reaction to it? and how much falls on just citizens following the rules >> well, it's all of it but mainly the public health response and public policy it is implementing the public health measures country wide with fidelity, and then slowly

reopening. you do have to have social distancing, you do have to have trying not to go indoors you do have to have having cloudsless than 20 you have to have wearing face masks, hand hygiene, and focusing testing and contact tracing capacity first of all, building it up, which we never did successfully in this country and focusing it on hot spots because we know this virus breaks out in super spread events, it's not the usual person-to-person-to-person 80 to 90% of people will not pass this virus on to anyone 10% to 20% of people cause 80% of the infections, so you have to be able to identify them and quickly suppress that. we never built up that capacity. the federal government punted it to the states, and the states did very different things. you have florida rapidly opening restaurants and many other things and a lot of us are expecting super spreading

situations in florida. we have seen places that kind of ignored this up and down the midwest saying oh, it's not here, now having very high rates of cases 31 states are going up, not down, which is a very worrisome situation going into the fall when we're going to move inside, it's going to be much easier to pass this virus along, and a lot of us are seriously worried about the consequences. >> i mean trying to do whether that was apples to apples. in may in the united states, we got a later start, right, tan europe, and by may, they were already seeing progress over in europe, i'm not sure whether you adjusted for that. we were at the height close to it in may, and they were on the down i downside in europe did you standardize that in a

way or am i wrong on that? we were going to have a lot more deaths in may than they would because they got it a lot earlier. >> that's a super sophisticated question and you're 100% light we started a week or two later than european countries like italy, france, but if you make that adjustment, it makes a slight difference, not a huge difference it's not oh, our peak was in may, and their peak was the end of march, early april. our peak was earlier in april and by may 10th we should have gotten our arms around it, and in our paper, we looked at june 7th and subsequently and even if you look at june 7th, we have tens of thousands of more deaths than other countries like, again, the netherlands, france,

spain, italy so we have done poorly and our data selection goes through mid september. we have done poorly even with the august blip because of the summer vacations in many european countries where we know people in italy partied and ignored all the recommendations and got covid. so we have done badly even if you include the fact that we got this about a week or two later compared to other countries. that was a very good question, typically only high level statisticians or clinical researchers ask that question. >> i'm feeling so good about myself all of a sudden let me ask you one other thing, and as someone once said, show me one pandemic, and i'll show you one pandemic, i'm not saying that h1n1 was similar at all, but i have heard ron clain who was in challenge saying basically the obama

administration screwed up everything that could have been screwed up for h1n1, and there were 60 million americans got infected what he meant was we got lucky with how lethal it was and if you did a .5 lethality, talking about 3 million dead, but it was so, the mortality was so much lower, we only saw 12,000 deaths was that handled in a better fashion, zeke, than coronavirus under the trump administration in your view >> absolutely, it was handled in a better fashion first of all, there was a coordinated federal response and consistent messaging across the country. i was involved in the white house, we were trying to get our hands around a condition which was very uncertain we didn't have other countries'

experience to look at and i think we actually did a better response we did let the cdc publish guidelines and recommendations without political interference, we did have a all government approach and i think it's important to contrast president trump was not undermining the public health recommendations. >> how did 60 million people get it what if 60 million people got coronavirus? what would the death rate be >> first of all, we have 7 million confirmed cases. we have many more people who have gotten covid who haven't been confirmed remember, about 40% of the people who get -- >> that's just lowering the death -- >> but that's an important factor because you're asking me about a low death rate in h1n1 when the dust settles, we will have a better indication of how many people actually have covid. remember, the cdc did a study i

think a couple of months ago now, that showed for every person who's got a confirmed case, there's 6 and 24 people that probably have covid depending on the location. many more people who have covid, nowhere near enough for herd immunity, but many more who have been affected. nonetheless, the important point from our study is even with all of these people, a lower case fatality rate that ur you're pointing to, the fact is we have had tens of thousands, 90, 100,000 more deaths than we should have on a population basis had we actually rigorously implemented the public health measures, compared to other countries, and you know, none of them did it perfectly. maybe taiwan did it perfectly but no other european country. even compared to canada, north of the border, we have had much worse response than canada has

and we've had, you know, three times as many cases per population as canada has there's a lot we could have done, and the sort of problems, number of cases, hospitalizations was not inevaluatabli inevitable it was a result of bad public health measures being implemented or not implemented and you can see this states seeming to learn nothing like florida rushing to open up restaurants, bars, when we should be slowly, slowly reopening. >> dr. emanuel, very quickly, i guess we do have time for one more question, how much of an impact do you think americans' healthness versus other countries, how do we rate underlying comorbidities.

>> it's a mixed bag, our population skews younger than european countries they have an older population, more people over 65 and we know that older people tend to die from this disease, unfortunately. we have more comorbidities in terms of diabetes and obesity, they have more comorbidities because of lung problems because they have higher smoking rates than the united states it probably comes out in a wash, but we're going to have to do more rigorous studies of the comorbidity situation, and the age distribution of the population i don't think it's going to be tens of thousands of deaths, might be a few thousand, maybe ten thousand but the overwhelming response, the fact that about half of our deaths are unnecessary, that's not going to come out because of small differences in comorbidities between our country asks their country.

>> zeke, thank you so much for your time. very great talking to you. >> thank you, very sophisticated questions this morning. >> we're going to take a quick look at futures, ahead of breaking news numbers, you're looking at the dow, off about 63 points, nasdaq up about 119 points by the way, jamie diamond making an interesting comment, if there are good outcomes, provisioning $10 million, if there's a double dip recession, we could be under provisioned by $20 billion, so chew on that in the meantime, i want o seto it over to rick santoli, standing by with the numbers. >> our first look at consumer price index for the month of september. up 2/10 on headline, strip out food and energy, it's up 2/10. these are half of what's in the rear view mirror which were up 4/10 revisions may be trickling in. pretty much exactly as expected. if we take the long view and look at year over year, headline

exactly as expected also at 1.4. 1/10 lighter than our last look in august. if we strip out food and energy on a year over year perspective, 1.7 is expected. let's put faces on this with regard to where we have been in the rear view mirror the headline number, april up 8/10, the second highest read going back to 47 1.8 was the highest read, and of course that's from 2008. if we look at year over year, 1.7 on the core, what's notable is we had 25 months in a row where it was 2% or higher. that ended this year with covid. it started in 2018 we want to pay very close attention to these year over year numbers, and finally, if we look at real average weekly earnings, year over year, this gets released, that's up 4.1, better than the 3.8.

and if we rook the at year over year in an hourly format, up 3.3, that's a little better, 3.2 is our last look if we take all of these data points, andrew, it's pretty much as expected but we're looking at it through a different prism possibly has changed how the fed will react, simmer, allow it to stay at that level longer than they might have in the past may be an issue if the demand side of the economy, of course, comes back with low inventory bills. that's the process that's underway at the moment back to you. >> meantime, steve liesman is standing by as we speak doing his own math on all of this. steve, what's your reaction? >> my reaction is that rick is making money, and the reason is because rick is a big old car

guy and the story here is used cars up 6.7% month to month, not year over year 10% year over year, and the story here, andrew, i don't know if you're involved in this, but the story is that people are going out and buying lots of used cars because they don't want to take public transportation so there's been a big scourgeur used car prices, new cars not so much, just up 1% the relative cost coming together also, a big question about gasoline prices, should have been down but they were kind of flat to up to .1% the expectation is it would decline. the other one is rent. rent is coming down, but home prices are going up. cpi gets the rental prices from actual home prices, so it's an interesting anomaly there. we could see some pressure ultimately, we're this a pretty good spot here for the fed to continue what it's doing right

now at 1.4%. but andrew, i don't know, did you go oat aut and buy a used co avoid public transportation. >> you can't get a new car, the shut downs that they had on the line means that only used cars are available. my car broke down two weeks ago, and you got to buy a used one because there's a shortage of the new ones too. >> preowned. preowned >> mike jackson is having a coronary the way i'm talking, right? >> they all are, yeah. i love those car guys. preowned. anyway, coming up, getting to the heart of joe biden's tax plan we're going to talk about what everyone would pay in a biden presidency, theoretically when "squawk box" returns

everyone wakes up every morning to a world that must keep turning.

the world can't stop, so neither can we. because the things we make, help make the world go round. they make it cleaner, healthier, and more connected. it's what we build that keeps things moving forward. so with every turn, we'll keep building a world that works. for skin as alive as you are... don't settle for silver ♪ gold bond champion your skin

box," i'm phil lebow, a loss of 8.47, versus an estimate of $3 a share. revenue coming in at 3.06 billion shy of the estimate of 3.11 billion. a couple of metrics to keep in mind here, revenue down 79% on 63% lower capacity there is a charge of $4 billion due to covid-19 that the company is taking for the third quarter. it ends the quarter with $21.3 billion in liquidity with net debt of $17 billion.

its daily cash burn in the third quarter, $24 million in september, however, it was $18 million a day. a couple other things to keep in mind, the company is pushing its break even target which they were hoping to hit by the end of the year they're pushing that out to next spring it's also delaying some deliveries of new aircraft and as a result, it's lowering its capex for this year by $2 billion, and capex over the next three years through 2022 by $5 billion lots of numbers to digest and an outlook we're going to want to hear about when we talk with ed bastian exclusively, that's coming up in 25 minutes or 20 minutes, i should say on "squawk ss the street," do not want to mi what he has to say. guys, more "squawk box" coming up in just a bit

what if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley.

♪ you can go your own way f♪ go your own way your wireless. your rules. only xfinity mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. and switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. welcome back to "squawk box" everybody, joe biden says he will raise taxes on the wealthy if he's elected to the white house. what would wealthy mean in a biden administration, and is it possible that everyone's taxes could change robert frank joins us with more on this front. robert, good morning

>> good morning, becky joe biden saying he's not going to raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 a year. but republicans saying he plans to raise taxes on 82% of americans so what would americans actually pay under biden's tax plan biden's plan calls for the statutory tax rates, the official rates to only go up for those making more than $400,000 a year but the effective tax rates, that's what people end up paying when you put all of those proposals together, that would reach much lower on the income ladder so the bottom quintile would see about $30 a year, the second quintile, 110, and those making 45 to $75,000 issue would see an $275 93% of these tax increases would be paid by the top 20% 3/4 of these increases would be paid by the top 1%, who would

see an average tax increase of nearly $300,000. so the reason that these lower earners would see any increase at all is because tax analysts assume a portion of the tax increases on companies would be passed down to labor you look at the cbo, the joint committee on taxation, tax policy center and others, they say about 20% of the tax hike on companies would be paid by workers and that, guys, is why you see a slight increase for those at the middle and the bottom back to you. >> okay. robert, thanks straight to our guests here for more on the impact of vice president biden's tax plan let's bring in our guest, jim demint, former u.s. president and chairman of the conservative institute. u.s. former congresswoman and msnbc analyst, donna edwards congresswoman edwards, i know that senator demint is going to

talk about repealing the trump tax cuts and that that de facto would be an increase on some of the lower earners, the low 400,000, just by definition, do you take issue with that, that's true, isn't it >> no, i mean, look, i think one of the things i was looking at this analysis, and i think one of the things that's not taken into consideration are the tax breaks that middle income people get, including the child care tax credits, including things like the first time home buyer advance credit i mean, these are all things that actually go on the plus side of the ledger, and so when those $2 trillion tax increases are repealed, what you get is about, you know, 1.6 of that actually went to higher income earners so don't really apply to the middle class at all, i think if you look at the biden plan to

totality, the plus and minus, i'm not an economist, but i know the difference between addition and attraction, you have to add the credits in before you begin to impute behavior of the korpgs -- corporations to workers. i think that's a real stretch in the analysis. >> senator demint, i think your take is repealing the trump tax cuts, that's a de facto increase and you don't believe that those below 400,000 eventually will be left alone, just by definition, because the numbers are so big we're going to eventually creep down to lower brackets is that your contention? >> well, somewhat it is, but we have to look at the bigger picture of the economy, and what happened when the trump tax cuts took effect along with the cuts and regulations that the economy

was forward at a rapid pace, income levels of lower income folks went up. you can't just look at taxes here i think the real problem with the biden perspective as well as the whole democratic party is they seemed to be denying what the tax cuts did to the economy overall and how that helped lower and middle income americans. that's something that we need to make a real point of the other thing is, as you know, a lot of small businesses are organized as llcs or other organizations so their personal income may be well over 400,000. if you start taxing that at a higher rate, their investment in their business and what they pay their employees is reduced automatically, so the overall impact on simultaneous business growth and economic growth is going to change dramatically if we go the way that the biden promises with higher taxes on

the investor class >> senator, what would you do about the enormous debt we have taken on over the past several years, and obviously beyond that, we have taken on a remarkable amount of debt over the past 20 or 30 years, but in terms of paying for that, would you do anything to try to raise revenue in a material way? >> well, it's not a revenue problem, and we saw in the first couple of years after the trump tax cuts took effect that we actually had more revenue. the problem is spending. federal spending is out of control, particularly right now as they're trying to get help to those affected by the coronavirus. >> i apologize, but i just wanted to make one point, which is that, you know, while revenue did go up on a relative basis to where it had been, it did not go up, and clearly we took on

actually additional debt during what was or appeared to be a very prosperous time in our economy. >> yeah, you're exactly right, and that's a problem that we have with both parties the republicans really didn't do any better they wanted to put more money into government spending, hoping to speed the economy but something we have to address. we cannot keep spending more than we're bringing in a number of us as republicans have seen this as a big problem, and our hope is in a second trump term that we can address the spending issue >> senator, thank you, and congresswoman, thank you, i wanted to get back to you. i'm being told, i'll have you on again. >> i got a lot to say about that >> i know. i know >> i apologize we will. let's do it again, same deal

that would be great. thank you. >> thank you you're welcome, thanks. >> the invitations are out when we come back, how might stocks react if democrats take the white house and the senate that's something wall street is suddenly spilling the lot of ink over we're going to tk oualabt it just ahead stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc quadrupled their money by 2012? and even now, many experts predict the next gold rush is just beginning. so call us money reserve, the only precious metals organization led by a former director of the united states mint. as one of the largest us gold coin distributors in the country, us money reserve has proudly served hundreds of thousands of clients worldwide. there may have never been a better time to start diversifying your assets with physical gold and silver. and right now it's easy to get started. pick up the phone right now. call to receive the complete guide to protecting your hard-earned assets. don't put it off another day.

the call is free, and you'll speak with one of the us money reserve account specialists who will get you your free information guide in the mail right away. - i enjoy buying gold. gold has protected me. i feel comfortable. when i got involved with gold, and something i could physically touch and i could hold. no one could take it away from me. i have it and i have it secured. of all my years' involvement with buying gold, it's only gotten better in my faith in the company. the us money reserve. that's the company i do business with and i don't see doing business with anyone else. they're trusted and they've always done right by me. - if you've bought gold in the past or would like to learn more about why physical gold should be an important part of your portfolio, pick up the phone. and call to receive the complete guide to buying gold, which will provide you important, never-seen-before facts and information you should know about making gold, silver and platinum purchases.

pick up the phone and call america's gold authority, us money reserve. with nearly two decades in business, over a billion dollars in transactions, and more than a half a million clients worldwide, us money reserve is one of the most dependable gold distributors in america.

this was the theater i came to quite often. the support we've had over the last few months has been amazing. it's not just a work environment.

everyone here is family. if you are ready to open your heart and your home, check us out. we thought for sure that we were done. and this town said: not today. ♪

welcome back we have a correction on the delta q3 financials.

the correct adjusted loss was $3.30 a share. still a little bit worse than analysts were expecting, but certainly not a loss of $8.47. we wanted to correct that. we'll be talking with ed bastion coming up in a little bit. delta, loss of $3.30 a hair shan the third quarter. back toyou >> okay. phil, thank you for that we're going to get you to cnbc headquarters and jim cramer. we're going rapid fire let's go jpmorgan first, i'm fascinated by the comments on the call he's saying that right now he thinks they could be potentially overreserved by up to $10 billion if there is a stimulus plan, and pushing for one, but says, i don't think they're expecting this, they would be underreserved by up to $20 billion in what they're thinking could be a worst case scenario, which they're hoping doesn't come true. >> look, i think people aren't borrowing that much. it is hard to be able to key e default. people are saving but still doing just enough business and

there is just enough service business that jpmorgan looks very good. >> if you could own jpm or citi what do you take >> jpmorgan, citi has a tremendous discount. i think the chatter about citi will be about risk management and not with jpmorgan. >> and then finally, j & j, earnings and then you have this pause on the vaccine. >> i think it is pause, not a halt i think we'll get some results about what this -- what is the matter with this person the next four or five days and people will regret they sold the stock. they are working for free anyway on that. it is not like it is something -- you got good organic growth there, much better growth in the medical devices, consumer spending j & j is a great stock i would buy it. >> apple, call it at the end of the day. what is it up or down >> it never satisfies these people never. doesn't matter what they do, it never satisfied and they buy it

and they love it the stock -- it now comes down as it looks like it is another phone. when you find out about it, you got to go buy the phone. there is that lag. >> jim, we'll see you in a couple of minutes. >> thank you >> you bet. >> thank you >> becky >> joining us now to talk more about the markets and what might happen to stocks if we see democrats take the white house and the senate is j.j. canahan you've seen inflows coming in and retail investors buying back into the high flying stocks like apple, like jim was mentioning what do you think is out there how much of any sort of result for the election that is just three weeks away is baked in >> well, you know, i think the interesting thing, becky, has been as i look to the last month and a half or so, before that we were seeing a lot of our clients participate in healthcare and financial stocks and those are two of the biggest sectors of the market that could change depending on the change of

leadership up top. it has been very interesting to me that those are two sectors that our clients have kind of just paired back in terms of how much they are buying of them as you mentioned, it has been much more technology, you know, apple, amazon, i'll put tesla in there, the battery technology. and walmart. that our clients are turning to over the last month and a half or so. in fact, since the first week of september, apple has been the number one purchased stock every single week going into this week so people have sort of changed where they have been over the last month and a half, as i said >> how much conviction do you think there is on any of these purchases. you saw the way that apple dropped after it hit the highs back in august >> i do think in terms of apple, it has been the number one health stock at the firm for last few years i think that will continue, people just -- as jim just got done saying, right before me, people buy the stock and then

they love it and they love their products and tend to be loyal overall. i will tell you the one that is always interesting to me is tesla, because at any given month, people could be on the buy side, they can be on the sell side. one of the other interesting things is with delta being down, the airline stocks as you know when you and i talked early in the spring and middle of summer, our clients were buyers of those. this have since turned in terms of airlines and royal caribbean, two of the largest sales we saw in the month of september. with delta, united and royal caribbean on that list i think people are a little less comfortable owning those because there hasn't been the quicker jump up. >> we have about 20 seconds. larry fink said this morning that retail investors have been pouring in you have seen the same how much conviction do you think the retail investors overall have in the stock market and will they weather it with more volatility >> i think they will weather it with more volatility and expect patients over the next three weeks that will see a lot more

in the election. >> all right, great to see you, j.j., thank you so much. >> always a pleasure >> great to see all of you today. we hope you'll be back here tomorrow see you guys back here tomorrow. right now time for "squawk on the street." good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber welcome to q3 earnings season. as j&j, jpmorgan and delta and black rock first out of the gate plenty to break down there and we'll get set for apple's iphone event. earnings season, big banks and loss provisions are in focus jpm and citi are higher premarket. >> j&j hitting pause on its covid-19 vaccine trial why? because of potentially an issue. we'll be examining that. and as well also reported earnings by the way. shares moving a bit higher