tv Fast Money CNBC October 15, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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label. you forced this particular boy band -- >> a matter of what it says about market sentiment to somewhat speculative or risky or fad stocks >> we are out of town. >> how about ipos? a killer year for ipos >> we are out of time. i don't know how to follow that i am melissa lee and this is "fast money. tonight our real estate record breaker. what just happened in the mortgage market. plus peleton pedaling to an all time high. and why bonawyn thinks solar
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world is a good investment >> let's get straight to julia who has all of the details on this news. >> the big question of what content social media giants should allow users to share is in the spotlight as facebook and twitter limited the distribution of a new york post story that claims to show smoking guns and video related to president biden and his son. a story the biden campaign refute saying it wasn't asked about key items in the article >> twitter blocked the story on wednesday saying it violated its policy of distributing material
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with hacked material with personal and private information. this comes after president trump filed an order that the scope does not permit companies to editorialize activity. today it was said that he intends to move forward with a rule making. >> now following this announcement, two democrat fcc commissioners have come out in opposition they say he should not do the president's bidding. >> this seems different in that twitter and facebook have sensored the distribution of the
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article by the publisher itself. this is one of the most circulated newspapers in the united states. >> well, that's the question is it different if it's a verified account we have had both facebook and twitter say they are going to treat the president differently and his tweets because they want to make sure the public can see what he is saying, but the question is whether a publisher like "the new york post," whether it is that different i think specifically what twitter said about the idea that this is violating a specific rule they have about hacked material and personal information. they are rieg to tie it back to something very specific in terms of their service >> thank you, julia. texas senator ted cruz is fired up and sounded off on this earlier today on cnbc.
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this is what he said on power lunch. >> we have been seeing them get more aggressive on silencing voices they disagree with. the last 24 hours marked a dramatic escalation and they have crossed a new line. >> certainly we have gone down this path before we have seen headlines like this before are the social media companies platform or publishers a critical distinction to their business model i don't want to make this a political conversation, but can they do this to any publisher, new york post, new york times or any publisher. the question is do they have the place? should they be sensoring these publishers and by doing so does that jeopardize their business >> fascinating i think you can understand why people are feeling this way
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about this and why this will be used as a talking point. maybe justifiably so but companies like twitter and facebook are allowed to make stupid decisions if there was a law against making stupid decisions, we would all be in jail i think it was a really poor decision with that said, the stock traded really well today if you look at twitter. i know people don't want to hear that, but that's what we are here to arbitrate. it traded from 11:00 this morning, along with the broader market i understand. so the market doesn't seem to be worried about it, at least for today. that is having twitter seeing a run from $30 to the current price. so every opportunity to sell off in a meaningful way from this
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morning. earnings on the 27th or 29th i am not sure, that tells you everything you need to know about twitter. >> brian, your take? >> this reminds me of the drug stocks and pharmaceuticals leading up to the 2016 elections. that everybody was concerned if hillary clinton got in, their business model would change. so here we have a situation where politics are playing a role in corporate business models again i think it is a threat the more that twitter and facebook or any platform decides to editorialize, that changes their business model but for investors, how does this impact the one thing in general, it looks like tech is in the crosshairs of politicians which could keep the lid on the nas dak. -- nats dak, but it didn't have
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that much effect on the market the s & p was up today there are good things in the market outside of the head winds. >> let's break this down at least today the threat to twitter or facebook would be to lose users but the question is would they in fact lose users i am going to tell you about this research study that says that 92% of users identify that. and of that subset 95% identify themselves as democrats. so they probably won't lose many people >> the electrical college. let's not talk politics because i think the politics around this are absurd the politics for the companies are that if they were quick to take this down, they get in
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trouble and if they let this go, they are going to get in trouble. facebook has been through the wringer on this. i am not defending this or feel sorry on them. i think the stock will do nothing. if you think about what faceback went through during the early days of black lives matter and to the extent their site was not doing anything and advertisers were upset and biggest advertisers were pulling their support until twitter became some arbiter of what the truth is which facebook continues to say they will not do and won't change policies for anyone so back to what do the stocks do facebook underperformed apple but outperformed the s&p by 20%. might sense is jack dorsey appearing in front of republicans in two weeks i don't
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think is going to change the trajectory of the stock. i think what matters for the stock is their ability to monetize everybody knows it's a political season >> i don't think these guys can get on the right side of this. if it is not them not doing enough, hate speech and things that aren't up to snuff or whether or not they are doing the proper due diligence, and then we overshoot completely on this side and completely editorialize something from a credible source. it's tough is it too hot or too cold. i feel like they are inviting additional criticism that will be dictated to them in terms of what they can and cannot do. i don't think it is positive for their business view.
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i would expect litigation and editorial costs to increase because of that. in terms of the stock price, that's what we are here to talk about. nothing is happening if you look back at facebook, all of these smaller companies boycotting and you are not seeing the stock move at all the same translation into the current situation. >> gene is joining us. thanks i am sure we have had a variation of this conversation at least five times. this time it feels different for twitter to sensor effectively a publisher. is it? >> i don't think it is i think this is still deja vu. the details don't matter what matters is the overarching theme. legislators on both sides of the aisle want greater restrictions
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on social media. today it is the republicans. in the past it has been the democrats around black lives matter all of this means greater regulation ultimately, if i am correct that there is greater regulation, that they will have to find ways to manage their content more aggressively, one of two things will happen. the cost will go up and that is negative for the overall business, or secondly, you will see that advertisers may not be happy in terms of whatever decisions regulators make. so this is a can of works that these two companies are navigating i understand the lack of movement in the shares given this will probably take one or two years to sort itself out >> gene, it's b.k. i am glad you brought up can of
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worms. it strikes me if any social media platform now has to have an editorial department before anything gets out on their platform -- or maybe not, i don't know -- but that seems it would be a tremendous cost and as an investor, it would be almost impossible for the model going out. is that what you are thinking or is this just an annoyance these companies are going to have to deal with? >> it's a continuation of what we have seen facebook will spend even more money. i think that's not fully reflected. i think you will see broader views as a publisher it's also important to note, when you think about that view as a publisher, even though social media companies don't like that direction, they are asking washington for direction. they don't like going through these fire drills. ultimately, i think there will be a greater cost.
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>> aside from things that are factually incorrect, why do social media companies have to go down this root? as an investor, wouldn't it be cleaner to consider them platforms? >> that's what they are trying to do, trying to be platforms and stay out of this but ultimately, the content that gets us most engaged is the content that's most toxic. this is one of the fundamentals. i am veering off from main street and getting into social media, but ultimately i think these platforms are toxic and there needs to be greater rails around the way the content is and operate as a platform as it stands today is not advancing humanity's thinking right now. >> i want to ask you one last question you said you know in your heart of hearts that these are good
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stocks, but a -- these are toxit are these good stocks to be invested >> no. there will be regulations around it long-term and there are better places to put your money. >> favorite stock in a social space and that can include the likes of pintrest or snap, your favorite platform. >> if you look at pintrest, it has had a tremendous move. i think you could stay there and snap, i think that stock has done wonders for itself, but i think a lot of it came while facebook was facing it it snuck under the radar schoen and allowed to flourish. twitter, i don't think there was anything nefarious going on
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there. i just think it was a stupid, dumb business decision that the stock market can penalize them for or reward them for to stay with twitter, if this is something that outrages you, you don't have to be on twitter, nor, by the way, do you have to be on facebook >> same question to you? >> i have a hard time betting against facebook whatever might happen four or five years down the road, you will have the opportunity to reassess but i would stay with it now >> we have a news alert out of washington, d.c. >> senator elizabeth warren is calling for an investigation
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into the trump administration for what she calls insider trading. this is following up on this insto story this morning saying that trump may have been saying things behind closed doors about the coronavirus from what they were saying in public about the same time. this is what she says -- >> insider trading law is very complicated when it comes to washington and what is considered insider information and what is not.
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but elizabeth warren making the point she views this as unhealthy behavior to say the least. the other question we have to look into is what did these trump administration officials say privately to investors, donors and allies that they weren't saying to everybody else was there a difference between what they were saying privately and publicly all of that will require more investigation. >> thank you brian kelly, got a comment >> this goes to the heart of what is insider trading. was this information you couldn't have gotten elsewhere i remember back in february. you saw this virus spreading across the globe, so i think any astute investor would have stood up and said there may be an issue. politicians lie to me all of the
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time i am not sure i am going to listen i am not sure there is insider training saudis more like political theater. >> we have record dose of highs to tell you about. and how the mortgage situation may light a fire under housing businesses today are looking to tomorrow. adapting. innovating. setting the course. but new ways of working demand a new type of network. one that's more than just fast. you need flexibility- to work from anywhere. and manage from everywhere. advanced technology. with serious security. and reliable coverage, nationwide. forward-thinking enterprises, deserve forward-thinking solutions. and that's what we deliver. so bounce forward, with comcast business.
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a pair of big wins for the stay at homes. peleton with a new high at $150 bucks a share. tim, do you buy into that? >> i haven't to this point kudos to that point who understood the secular trend here was it just a hardware company of course not. was it just a software company of course not. 100 million subs isn't that preposterous the stock in the short-term, and say what you will, this is a run that's absurd. it's up 500% the opportunity is great
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i don't thinkit is right now i was saying that $100 ago when i think the stock maybe has another 100 to the upside that beats me to the downside but valuation is so tough and something i missed >> you revealed that you are a new customer, b.k. >> i am. i ordered one about two or three weeks ago. i have a november 19th delivery date to me the stock makes sense that the thing is a runaway train here everybody is losing investors. they are buying this thing and seeing six-week lee time it was like llue lemon, everybody would look at it and say how much did i buy i think the same thing for peleton. you have to look at it
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rationally because you have ir rational behavior. i don't want to short this thing because it is such a freight train. >> guy >> i think we have been steadfast on this for a while. when square became public, everybody said this is just a hardware company and discounted all of the ancillary things. it's similar to what is going on here in peleton. now it is trading close to nine times next year's revenues deep end of the pool stuff they are building another factory. i think december the factory will be done huge demand. b.k. is on board i think you might see that $150 target that bernstein put on it for earnings which i believe are early november >> do you have one >> no, but as i said a couple shows back, i own the stock but
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let it go a little too early the stock is at 135 or 137 the target is 150. risk reward, i think you buy it back website engagement, all of those things translate well. winter is coming, covid is spiking. i think you could make the case why this is the perfect storm for them but i think a lot of this is for subscriber engagement. i am holding off >> breaking news out of washington >> melissa, we are getting a new readout from nancy pelosi's office about stimulus negotiations pelosi's office saying that phone call took place at 3:30 this afternoon and took place more than an hour.
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she saying that mnuchin said he will accept that language with a few changes along testing. there is still a long way to go from nancy pelosi. speaker raised leader mcconnell's concerns about not being able to put a comprehensive package on the floor. it was indicated that the president would weigh in with senator mcconnell if an agreement was reached. no indication an agreement was reached. but indication that the president will lean on senator mcconnell. but there is indication there was another call and incremental sides, but no indication there
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will be a deal any time soon >> incremental is the key word given the jobless numbers we got this morning, the markets are hanging on to that is incremental good enough for the market >> i think it has been the markets are able to trade around i default to neither side can go without a deal i don't think democrats can have president trump signing a big deal the day before election i don't think the republicans can look like they are not willing to compromise off of something. that's my view and i think the market is trading as if it is because regardless of where the market goes between now and elections and whether it could woman after elections or not, the economy needs something and more than the federal reserve
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and frankly at this point, that's all we have got >> you are the only one on this panel who said there would be no stimulus deal. here we are, still no deal what do you think happens now? >> i still don't think we get one until election day this will be all posturing both sides want to look as though they are trying to help the american people, but both sides don't want to compromise the american people need this help the government decided to have a mandated recession that's not anybody's fault in business the right thing to do would be to pass some kind of stimulus, but not the right thing to do when it comes to politics. everybody wants to gesture and posture. i don't think anything happens until after the election, but i think the market is looking ahead and saying after the election comes along, we will get some stimulus. i think that's why we have seen
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and you have to consider housing prices which in cases are going higher to offset them. >> these are incremental positives. we talk about housing related costs. restoration hardware has been a monster. we had a conversation about sales of dutch ovens which created something with us -- >> they are good vessels for braising and stewing >> that's the point. and on valuation it was still relatively inexpensive and even today at 16 times next year's numbers, i think it is worth a look i think we can stay in wsm and
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restoration hardware >> the dutch oven is a double edged sword. >> it is not it is just a cooking vessel. cast iron cooking vessel it is what it is >> of course it is and william sonoma at 15 times average, it's not expensive. how about my whirlpool which i power pitched. the hvac equipment whether trane or carrier i think it is working better i think some home builders are stretched. but they are called building material stocks and industrials and still cheap. how about home depot and lowes which are off all time highs i would stay in those trades as well >> our next guest is deconstructing some trades and even going inside the home for
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chart plays. chris, what are you looking at >> listen, i think this trade is very much in vogue, but when we talk about home building, we have to talk about the broader consumer sector. we like to look at discretionary stock versus staples to get a sense of the market's risk appetite despite the last several weeks of new concerns about the virus and stimulus, new concerns today with unemployment claims being weaker, discretionary continues to outperform. this is not amazon versus walmart. i think it speaks to a robust consumer cycle what have been the big drivers of this move home building is high on that list i want to show you this to start. this is the home building.
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consolidated throughout the month of august and into september, as october comes around, it starts to break out if you are long, this is the type of action you want to see you think about some of the parts in this etf. lennair is a big home builder. this is a 30-year chart of lennar that was did rocket ship. only in the last couple weeks has this started to break out above the '75 level. i think this can be a leader for a long time. and williams-sonoma, wsm is a name you want to own in the home retail space another stock in the fair market since 2015 that fair market is over
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notice the bottom panel of this chart. you are being paid to own this stock relative the index we like this you have a home, home retailer, you need a place to sleep in so you about sealy. notice it has already broken out in relative terms versus the sapp s&p. i think housing tactically is another strong way to play this. >> chris, great to see you thank you. >> which of these picks do you like >> i am going to go with other i don't want to echo the other two guys here. i still like fortune brands. i think it also is a way of playing the housing sector in a
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derivative type of way, or defini derivation thereof i think you will continue to see people deploy capital in upkeep of their homes and that's how i would be playing it. >> i think you want to stay with the higher end type of thing one thing we know about this recovery, it is not v-shaped it's k-shaped. i want to go toll brothers, something like that. william sonoma, a lot of people buying dutch ovens, i want to stick with that. anything on the higher end, i want to be in. >> you guys are like school girls, giggling over there shares dropping as the coach of one of the biggest teams in college football tests positive for covid.
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but bonawyn who says one stock has a sunny outlook. we're excited to do business with you but before we sign i gotta ask... sure, anything. we searched you online and maybe you can explain this? i can't believe that garbage is still coming in. that is so false! frustrated with your online search results? call reputation defender today to join tens of thousands who've improved their online reputation. get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender.com
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money. bonawyn, what is your fast pitch? >> coach guy made a visit to the mound between innings and straightened me out. if you look at the secular trend away from fossil fuels to renewables i think you have seen this in terms of statements and watching and expecting us to go from 25% to 50% in 2024 and you have seen it translate in terms of the electric vehicles, and if you take into account what might be a blue sweep, biden has said he intends to spend $4-plus
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trillion for this trend. but balance sheet. in a space where most of the competitors are fueling operations with debt we see they have about half a billion versus about 1.5 billion. that's enough for three or four years to fund their operations they could tweak that. what might be on the surface weaknesses on their balance sheet. i think as you see targeted spending in the space, you will see an uplift on both of those fronts from targeted funds and advancement with that sub sector >> time for questions. tim has one. >> very interesting call we earlier referenced back to fast money, 2005 this is one of those names
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i understand the catalysts that are political. the big factor i think is profitability. even without a change in political posture, are the gross margins going higher i think that's where the skepticism is to take this to the next level which has done well >> the gross margins are trending in the right direction. i think they are in the middle to low 20s i would like to see that closer to 30. you make a great point but once they have cost savings they are able to actualize and if you get additional spin for that, i think that will accelerate that. >> no more questions time to vote are you buying his pitch on first solar?
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guy? no audio good thing he has written it on a white board although there is a white board. so it's difficult to read. oh, i'm with him >> can you hear me now >> yes >> a lot of cords when you are working from home. you look at this stock, the run it has had, you say it's very expensive, but only trading at 23 times next year's number, again i am with the icebreaker >> i was looking forward to you miamiing th miemg that, but maybe another show >> it is breaking out of a multiyear raining so i am a buyer of what he is selling.
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>> this is breaking out of a year but it is here to stay it's all about the base. you buy it >> the longer the base, the higher the space, a well-known technician says. the traders have spoken, but it is you at home, your turn to vote tell us if you are buying or selling his fast pitch we will have the results later alabama's head coach tests positive for covid what it could mean for the future of sports betting
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welcome back to fast money draftkings is down after alabama's head coach saban tested positive for covid. we talked to the various draft kings founders, ceo's et cetera. they said it was not going to be important one game or a series of games being played, but this is always a reaction we have seen in the stocks when there is
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a threat to the schedule >> every time we have seen that threat, it is an opportunity to buy it draftkings' issues is where you have seen some of the investors selling out. nick saban is a god in football, but that won't change the trajectory of online sports betting. look at the deal they just signed with turner and bleacher report it is a big deal to provide the access the market growth is important the valuation doesn't make sense now, didn't make sense 30% ago, 9 days ago when it hit the highs. this is a time to buy weakness
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in what i think is a great long-term story. >> we didn't talk about that 32 million secondary which is a deep discount. it hasn't recovered since. i will say i didn't see this move coming because i have been bullish on the name and continue to be in this huge downdraft but the levels we traded down to today basically are up against the levels we topped out at june so past resistance becomes support and i think you find it in the form of 46 and stick with it i will stack up the patriot league against the sec any day and number two, i am shocked that you know who nick saban is, mel. but you have surprised me over the years. >> i am married to a huge fan of
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welcome back crude oil in the red for the first time since monday. we will learn more about the energy when schlumberger reports earnings take it away >> looking for the inside move it looks like a 5% move between now and tomorrow, so just a one-day move the trade that stuck out to me was 1,000 of the november 17 1/2 calls made around 50 cents
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this seems like a way to fight back in a stock beaten down hard it will be interesting to see how things shape up tomorrow >> what do you think about slb >> tim has talked about it i think you can make a compelling case for both hal burton and schlumberger. maybe the space is finally getting some love having been crushed for a while. i will stay with it in terms of schlumberger you pronounce it better than i in the business we call it schlumberger >> i thought you called is slab. >> slab. >> brian kelly, what do you think of oil in general? >> i call it schlumberger as well oil has been quite weird
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i haven't traded oil that well so i don't feel qualified to talk about schlumberger or slumber j. if possible you want to go into the oil service which would be your halliburtons and slabs. coming up next, we have the final trade. i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. well except now you're binge learning. see how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from td ameritrade. visit tdameritrade.com/learn ♪
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the cnbc financial adviser summit is back exploring the state of the market please visit cnbc events.com and register for the summit which happens october 20th this is the point of the show where we would normally reveal the results of the fast pitch, in this case the pitch on solar. but twitter appears to be down we have checked with the company to see if there is an outage, but everyone outside of here seems to have access to twitter.
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all of our traders bought your pitch so we will mark this as a win. enjoy it >> yeah! >> we reached out to twitter we will keep you updated >> maybe there was something controversial in that post i don't know intel, nothing controversial about the part and a slow grind higher the bar is low for kwourch qq. -- qqq >> it has worked so far. i will stick with first solar. >> copper was green. >> dr. copper. >> guy >> it's crazy. we talked about the william sonoma and dutch ovens i was scrolling through my phone
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and i am getting the pop-ups for the heavy things you bake in somebody is listening. >> weird, huh? >> you don't need to sell me on one. mcdonald's >> thanks fo my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's also a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome my job is not just to entertain but to educate, teach, put in context. call me, 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet @jimcramer today the stock market had
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