this morning, we're moving up. looks like the dow will open up about 140 points higher. nasdaq up 82 points. s&p 500 up about 16 points it is friday or fri-yea as becky would say. we hope you have a great weekend and look forward to seeing you on monday. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and leslie picker. cramer has the morning off coming off three days of losses, stocks still do look to bounce here as retail sales come in nearly double expectations hopes for stimulus hang on by a thread road map begins with breaking the stimulus stalemate pelosi cites some progress the president says he'll try to get republicans to fall in line if a deal is reached. >> as carl told you, shares of pfizer are rallying ever so

slightly as the drugmaker did say it will seek that approval for an emergency use for its vaccine by late november. >> as carl mentioned, wall street looking to snap a three-day losing streak. september retail sales delivering a big beat. futures up this morning. carl >> david and leslie, a couple of things working in the bulls' favor today. three days down. a little bit of room to bounce back on the upside, david. but futures were slightly negative, then we got that open letter from pfizer, saying that we could be looking at potentially a request for an eua by mid to late november and retail sales with that blowout number for the month and year on year the figures, david, reflect a consumer that has put together a nest egg during the course of the summer, and that is continuing to provide some momentum for the consumer. >> it is funny, i go back to that interview i did with david berman of maybe six weeks ago already, but somebody who tracks retail sales, more closely perhaps than anyone. and inventories and how enthusiastic he was about having

seen numbers the likes of which he had never seen, carl, in terms of increases, and that is being born out, it would seem right now, given the numbers that we are seeing but, again, as we said so many times, it is a tale of two economies, two cities, however you want to express it, with the big getting bigger and seeing the bulk of those gains and many of your main street retailers perhaps falling on much harder times or mall-based retailers as well, carl so, you know, we'll keep a close eye on that. something else we also mentioned out of bank earnings was the incredible increase percentage wise in deposits at in the big banks. to your point, that you raised, people had been able to save some money during the course of the pandemic, perhaps by not going out, not traveling or simply as a result of wanting to be ready for what was certainly an uncertain time and continues to be. and maybe they're spending some of that money now. >> that's true but there was that new study out from jpmorgan showing that

spending dropped, savings dwindled for the u.s. unemployed as they saw enhanced benefits expire earlier this summer it calls in question some of the trends we're starting to see with regard to, you know, as you mentioned, with deposits at the bank, what this means for retail sales moving forward, especially as, you know, you look at the headlines every morning and yet again, washington has yet to reach some sort of stimulus agreement, so they still continue uncertainty on that side of the equation, carl >> indeed. that's why we'll be watching some of the political calculus today regarding stimulus mcconnell yesterday saying that the president is, quote, talking about a much larger amount than i can sell to my members, but in these duelling town halls last night, the president did say there are still ways that he can lean on some of the senate republicans. here's what he said. >> i'm ready to sign a big, beautiful stimulus you saw the other day i said go big or go home, right? i want it to be big.

i want it to be boechltdld i want to -- >> are senate republicans with you? a big number >> they'll go. >> so far they have not said they would. >> i haven't asked them to i can't get through nancy pelosi but nancy pelosi and i, through my representatives or directly, i don't care if we agree to something, the republicans will agree to it. >> all right so that sort of is where we are, david. we know that mnuchin is expected to give pelosi an edit today of a revised proposal, testing language looks like we're making progress and mnuchin says, david if the deal is close, then the president will lean on mcconnell. we just don't know how effective that will be at this point. >> yeah, but what are we, election day is two weeks from tuesday, right so, carl, just hard to imagine you look at the calendar and what will happen over the next couple of weeks that we could see anything get through congress at this late date perhaps. it is certainly nothing if not a strange year but it seems unlikely.

>> and after, of course, the election, you have a lame duck, you know, group of people who i don't know if these leaders, you know, would be any more incentivized to get something done, especially those that may not be in the position that they're in now in congress i'm not quite sure what changes there. but interestingly, talking to investors, there has become this increasing view that it is less about who wins the white house, who wins congress, it is more about just consensus view among the various groups in washington so if there is a blue wave, people are starting to see that as a good thing for the market, it would mean it is easier to draw consensus, come up with a stimulus plan, if you have a mixed party situation, historically that's been good for the markets. people are saying now maybe that's not true, because stimulus is so much in focus, fiscal has really taken a front seat here, where as we have seen monetary policy be so important. fiscal policy is really

important, so any way that they can really see things get done in washington is becoming much more in focus. >> yeah. an excellent point we always say, david, markets like gridlock, but in this case, a split white house senate is definitely the -- on the bearish case of wall street strategist right now. goldman had a piece last night called what else can the fed do if in fact there is a significant pullback in economic activity going into the fall and the winter their point is that most likely for the fed, maybe you increase the pace or duration of asset purchases, but they say although it is likely, it is not a foregone conclusion because it is unluikely to be that effective. that's why all the emphasis is on fiscal stimulus. >> we look at the ten-year note there, carl. having moved up from that .66 area or so that it was inhabiting for quite some time, but, still, historically at

numbers that we have rarely seen in our lifetimes at this point and many people come back to that, carl, so many times, with even the most sophisticated of asset allocators who have all sorts of strategies, and all sorts of ways to explain the market and then come back to simply saying, money is just cheap, that's why things keep going up nowhere else to be always love that explanation probably has the advantage of being true >> yeah. i think 30-year mortgages, ten record lows this year alone as i think the latest print was 281 joseph amato, ceo at newburger berman, try to take stock of where we are this morning. great to have you. >> good morning. good to be here. >> i guess the first question is what do we say right now about the state of the consumer, such a narrative, a powerful narrative built around how important stimulus is and retail sales numbers like today's. >> i think over the course of the last number of months, the economic data has been getting better and consumer has been

surprising over the course of the last number of months. certainly additional stimulus would be helpful, and whether we get that now, i'm a skeptic, whether we get that two weeks before an election, it feels like that's significant legislation. that's just going to be hard to get done at some point after the election, probably one way or another you have some level of stimulus but the earlier points that you guys were making are important, i still think monetary policy is still the foundation of what is supporting this market rates stay low, we're staying at 75 basis point, ten-year treasury, that's supportive of risk assets. and the fed looks like they're going to be accommodative for a long time to come. >> i want to ask you about taxes. because even though we're focused on stimulus at the moment, taxes may be a story for next year, obviously vice president -- former vice president biden was asked about that at his town hall last night

on abc and tried to raise this notion of whether or not he would be able to work with other people -- republicans on the other side of the aisle with regard to taxes. here's what he said. take a listen. >> there is not going to be any delay on the tax increases >> no, well, i got to get the votes. i got to get the votes that's why, you know, the one thing that i have the strange notion, we are a democracy some of my republican friends and some of my democratic friends even occasionally say, well if you can't get the votes by executive order, you're going to do something. things you can't do by executive order, unless you're a dictator, we're a democracy. we need consensus. >> so, how are you thinking right now about the potential impact on the trajectory of s&p earnings if tax policy reverses from the last few years? >> i think it has been interesting to watch the evolution around the markets, perception of tax policy if we were sitting here, you know, middle of the summer and

the expectation of a blue wave were happening, many of us would be saying that's a head wind for markets because of the near term implications of tax policy on the corporate side as well as the individual side. and i think what has shifted over the last number of months is the perception that you're basically going to get a policy that is spend now, pay later the spend now part, which is stimulus in various forms, that will help fuel the economic recovery and the durability of that recovery, and then you phase in tax cuts down the road. now, if biden is shifting that to more immediate tax cuts, i think that's going to come back to a notion of that may be some head wind, because increasing corporate tax rates, whether it be low 20s to high 20s, that's going to weigh on corporate earnings no question about it that's probably -- that shift alone is probably $10 a share in s&p 500 earnings and the market has to adjust to that at some point. >> joe, i'm going to come at you about a different subject, not the broad market, but actually

your business. you've been at newburger a long time we're starting to see a lot of pressure for consolidation among asset managers some of which obviously is resulting in positive moves up for some of these stocks, eaton vance in a deal to be acquired by morgan stanley, activists trying to get janus and invesco together what do you think of the consolidation that may take place? >> it is interesting to see some of the announcements over the course of last number of months. we certainly feel that our competitive position is a strong one. we're almost 400 billion in assets under management. we have a broad-based business across both more traditional elements of the long only business in equity and fixed income and we have a quite sizable private equity business. with ev been b we have been better positioned over the last number of years. if we were more dependent on some of the more traditional elements of active equity or

large cap equity, you might have a different part of view we feel like we're quite well diversified by client type, by asset strategy, asset class strategy and by geography. we feel good about that. we're watching the competitive landscape around that from our standpoint, take advantage of that where we can. >> yeah. >> in terms of taking advantage of that, joe, do you -- are you looking at acquisitions, do you think acquisitions make sense in the asset management world, historically this has been a pretty disparate industry because people say you do a deal, it is hard to combine cultures of two different asset managers and make things work on that front so is that something you're also considering as you evaluate the competitive landscape? >> our industry is littered with asset manager deals that have gone quite poorly. we have grown organically over the course of the last, you any, 10, 15 years and that's worked for us very, very well integrating a large acquisition as some of our competitors are

finding out is very, very hard to do. so that's not something that we see on our landscape, but, you know, when our competitors go through that kind of disruption, it does present some opportunities. because, you know, there are distractions associated with those kinds of mergers and whether it is consultants or large pension plans or whatever they look exceptically about how those deals are done >> joe, how are you thinking about spacks we have been getting, i would argue, probably more color in terms of the diversity of views on how smoothly this is going to go over the long-term, whether it is from larry fink, this past week, or lloyd blankfein last week, the sec chair. how would you grade the delivery of those capital raises over the past few months and to what degree do you see a warning sign on the horizon >> i think the amount of capital raised in spacks this year has

been pretty extraordinary. something like $40 billion or so and it is really shifted spacks a number of years back was viewed as the sort of back water of the capital markets and i think that has shifted and it is becoming a more legitimate avenue if you will for a private company to come public so, you know, we have invested in spacks. i would encourage being careful in evaluating the sponsors of those spacks very, very, very carefully and looking at the track records because investors are putting their money in the short-term but i think spacks are here to stay and they're a legitimate pathway for companies to go from private to public at some point. >> yeah, they say we live in interesting times, we certainly do, joe. appreciate that. have a great weekend we'll talk to you next time. >> thank you for having me

>> joe amato of neuberger berman fair diet of data today. retail sales a little while ago, and in a few seconds we'll get some industrial production numbers. ahead of that, to rick santelli on this friday hey, rick. >> yes, we're waiting industrial production, a number that should be around up half of 1% and utilization rates get more into the mid-70s we hope. this number hasn't popped out yet. i have a quick few seconds, we know that retail sales is really strong, but the nonseasonally adjusted was actually weak goes to the whole issue, seasonality is a tough one down .6 of 1%, down .6 of 1% on industrial production. this is a huge miss, huge miss in capacity utilization rates, 71.5, that's a miss as well. down .6, 71.5. to give you an idea, utilization rates precovid in the 76.5, 77 camp we have a long way to go there and the .6, .6 is not going to

make anybody happy, basically if you look at the last three numbers, last four numbers, they have been more positive, so this really is the type of miss that underscores that even though we're a service sector economy, industrial production and mining and a lot of the energy sector, of course, has been covid-impacted leslie, back to you. >> big miss indeed, rick thank you. pfizer and biontech giving tas tetocks a lift this morning. deilafr the break. stay with us this is decision tech.

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pfizer saying the covid vaccine candidate it is developing with partner biontech could be ready for an emergency use authorization application by late november. meg tirrell joins us with the latest meg? >> david, well, in an open letter pfizer ceo albert borla saying they could know by the end of october whether their vaccine works to protect people against covid-19 but they are going to have to wait for the safety data that the fda is looking for before they would file for emergency use authorization. and that data they expect they could have by the end of november so if all looks good at that point, they say they will quickly file for an emergency use authorization. now, that is based on the getting two months of safety follow-up data after half the people who are enrolled in the trial have received their second shot here you see the enrollment in

the trials both pfizer and moderna passed that halfway mark in late september. and so that's why we're seeing these timelines of late november for potentially filing for emergency use authorization for both of these companies. we heard the same thing for moderna's ceo. now, there is also news out on gilead's remdesivir, from a w.h.o. trial of multiple repurpose medicines, looking to see if they help with hospitalized patients and these data from the w.h.o. essentially say that remdesivir and other medicines that they looked at had no benefit in terms of saving people's lives in the hospital or even reducing their hospital stay, guys. and gilead responding last night, this is the w.h.o. commenting here, on the trial, the folks who ran the trial, saying essentially as indicated by overall mortality initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay, they saw little or no effect from these medicines they tested. gilead is disputing these data saying that they appear inconsistent with more robust

evidence from multiple randomized controlled studies published in peer review journals validating the clinical benefit of remdesivir. looking look a blow to remdesivir's utility interesting to see it is getting debated in the scientific community and the biotech analyst community as well. guys >> meg, back to the fipfizer vaccine, the ceo has been quite vocal at least or communicative in terms of updating us. you think the next update, though, will be as they seem to indicate when they find that the trial perhaps as soon as late october has been effective >> possibly, david i mean, we have to hope that is the next update. that is only a couple of weeks away and it depends on how many infections they see in the trial, how quickly they'll get those data, but, you know, we're talking about potentially two weeks from now, knowing if the first vaccine for covid-19 in the u.s. works then we'll have to wait to see about safety >> and finally, on the w.h.o.

stuff, to what degree, you talk about running afall ing ning a things that are peer reviewed. how effective do you think any retort to that solidarity trial may be at this point >> it is a good question this is a trial of 11,000 people, not all of those people were given remdesivir in the study. but it is a very large study and, you know, one analyst at raymond james, steven seedhouse pointing out today that, you know, these are strong data and gilead sort of rebutting them, he didn't look on that too favorably. it is kind of funny because there is this huge debate during this pandemic over peer review and putting information out there before it has been in a journal. biotech companies do that all the time so for gilead to say, well, it hasn't been peer reviewed what aboutthings they put out that aren't peer reviewed. >> confusing, chris christie

himself gave remdesivir a shoutout in his statement yesterday as he was discharged from the hospital in the last few days meg, thanks for helping us try to make sense of it today. meg tirrell on the remdesivir study. we'll take a break plenty of sell side stuff to get to, including upgrades of cat ll, piercostco don't go away.

dow gainers on this friday, boeing is up almost 5% premarket. nearly a two-week high as europe's top aviation regulator says the max is now safe enough to return to service they expect to issue a draft air worthiness directive sometime in

november back in a minute ♪

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opening bell coming up in about a minute's time. obviously the consumers at the center of the investor focus this morning as we got retail sales numbers pretty good today, up 1.9 looking for .8 david, one indicator is perhaps the results out of lvmh. you've been following that narrative pretty closely here. the results were not nearly as bad as some suspected when they came out yesterday >> no, you know, it is, as you point out, the largest luxury brand in the world and it is growing the fastest with the exception of dior leather doing very well. can't speak to that. fashion and leather goods up substantially. they did suffer a 14% decline in watches and jewelry. but generally speaking, as you point out, carl, and as the stock is reflecting, it was seen as a strong quarter. reshoring of chinese national spending, continuing to help pace, that's an important component of the overall

business there as well and then what does it mean for tiffany, which gave us not quite full results yesterday, but generally positive, certainly on the bottom line, though not a lot of detail, we'll have to wait and see i'm following it closely as you say, carl, and they're getting closer and closer to meeting in court in early january in delaware if they don't come to some sort of new agreement >> yeah. let get the opening bell at the nyse at the nasdaq on this friday after three daysof losses, see if we can built and hang on to some. yesterday's action was well off the early morning lows consumer, leslie, plenty of upgrades this morning from the likes of chewy and caterpillar but costco too, jeffries to buy. they go from 321 to 435. if jim were here, he would probably endorse, but their general notion is that the moat that costco built and the progress they made on ecom over the years, which for a long time was a big liability for costco,

is resulting in what they deserve -- a multiple that is a premium, that is justified. >> that's right. it is one of the places that has been able to bring consumers in the door as dom chu a fan oftheir chicken will tell you. it is certainly been a big beneficiary of hoarding among the pandemic as people look to what is going on in the second half or the last quarter of the year, where are we, we're in october, that is something that people are keeping in mind. but interestingly, jpmorgan downgrading clorox to neutral. clorox, they say, has run up too much, more of a valuation play there. i don't know about you guys, and your quest to find additional cleaning supplies throughout the reminder of the year, we still have been more challenged on that front i'm not sure what the supply chain looks like jpmorgan downgrading that one on what looks to be largely just a valuation play up 42.2% year to date.

>> a couple of m&a stories to follow this morning. one i tweeted on earlier and now confirmed, which involves navistar talked about it yesterday as well, the truck company, they have been in long-term negotiations with traton, they have been trying to buy what it doesn't already own. there is a look at traton stock, of navistar. and you can see what is happening this morning why, well, it is a story we did, again, i tweeted on earlier. but it now has been confirmed and here is what basically it is, the two sides, a deadline for noon today in the u.s., eastern time, for which navistar had to accept traton said our $43 offer. but they had an opportunity to talk, both sides, yesterday, and they, what i'm told, is verbally agreed at least to a deal with

44.50. a letter to that effect has gone out from -- from troy clark at navistar to traton saying we enjoyed speaking, we had an opportunity to review our conversation with the navistar board and we are prepared to move forward with a deal at $44.50 the key is traton needs formal approval we're not quite there yet, but we certainly are a lot closer and perhaps unexpectedly so given it did appear that those tactics might not be effective, particularly as i pointed out yesterday with mr. rachesky whos had has a history of not selling, lions gate, deals that came and went, or l'oreal, but it appears he and mr. i icahn a on the same page, they are supportive and this has to go to

an agreement written in stone, a contract signed off on by boards of both sides. we'll keep an eye on that as we get closer $44.50 a share and then we have a deal this morning that i want to tell you about as well. always like this one the companies come out and call something a merger of equals, but it is not. first citizens share bank shares is buying cit group, a look at both of those stocks, first citizens is doing quit well. it is an all stock deal. cit shareholders get .0620 first citizens shares and that will result in a 61/39 split. 61% of cit owned by current first citizens shareholders the remainder by current or cit holders. cit had a brutal time of it during the pandemic. take a look. stock cut more than in half. though, of course, it is up today. and this is an all stock deal. it gets an opportunity to potentially participate in the synergies that will be brought to the fore. they hope as a result of this deal board of directors, by the way, 11 of them will be first

citizens current board and they'll add three cit members, current management of first citizens also going to run the company. but i do love, leslie, when they put in a release for young m&a reporters out there, don't believe it, that this is a transformational partnership and a merger of equals it is not. >> no such thing. >> it is not a merger of equals. there are mergers of equals when it is 50/50 and you split the board and have split management duties but they're rare very rare. but companies like to present this, this way, to their customers, most importantly their employees. sort of gives them a better feeling. >> that's what press releases are for. it is all about eliciting those feel good, making everyone kind of rally behind these deals, but to your point, it is rare and very difficult to see an actual 50/50 partnership in deals interestingly, though, the combined company will have about $100 billion in assets together and certainly, you know, to our point earlier, what we were

talking about with regard to, you know, the financial industry overall, we have seen, you know, a lack of mergers in that area and 2020 seems to be more of a sea change and this is the latest example of that. >> not coming from a point of strength, unfortunately, for cit given their business >> partnership >> carl? >> well, speaking of -- speaking of sea changes, guys, spokesman for prime minister boris johnson today says the talks between the eu and the uk are effectively over saying that the eu does not want to change their negotiating position and boris johnson wa warning britons to prepare for a no deal style exit, which brings the discussion to how financials are going to maneuver around their presence in london we know they have done already do they need to do more? >> we're still talking about this, huh, carl? my god, it never ends. it never ends. >> even when you think it is over. >> even when it is over. even when i'm sure it is over, it is not over

i guess it is never over and there is something going on with them and australia too, right? i -- you have to go to somebody who is more thoughtful on this i got nothing. >> i saw the word brexit and i refreshed my browser, i was, like, is this the right date it is still 2020, right? okay, we're still talking about it >> probably, you know, david, you talk about navistar, and it does remind you how much is going on in transportation right now. specifically around semis. and engines and trucks the wway navistar is positioned we know about nicola, tesla's interest in building a semi of their own. ford, china sales up 25. tesla, according to electric today, increasing the expected range of the model y so if jim were here, i think he would probably leap on the ford thing, he got bullish on ford a couple of weeks ago and a couple of upgrades since then we look at retail sales today, even ex-auto, but cars are a big

part of the equation now had it comes to the consumer. i tweeted a chart of inventories of rvs good luck trying to get an rv this year. there is practically none available at the moment. >> and we talked a great deal about the froth in the used car market also. given the excessive demand for second cars, perhaps, from people, as well, carl, that's been very tough to come by your point is a good one it comes to trucking, by the way, a reflection of the economy, we saw jane wells at the port in california, the other day, all that stuff coming in from china, not necessarily a lot going out, but imports are enormous now and trucking itself, carl, is very strong. the industry of getting stuff out from the port and delivering it, these trucks are full. >> the biggest laggard is jb hunt on the s&p, down 4.7% this morning. so, you know, certainly an interesting space to watch with regard to, you know, just the

logistics industry as a whole. >> caterpillar, guys, not quite where boeing is in terms of dow gainers. it is number two wells goes to a street high 220. upgrades to outperform and, again, david, it reminds you of the lurking cyclical trade which is sort of, like, the football, lucy's football in charlie brown, every time we think it is here, it stays a step back. they're talking about substantially improving results due to revenue growth from global, global growth acceleration, which sort of runs counter to the worries we see about the first quarter and fourth quarter which we know may be a difficult period from a global health standpoint. >> i know. it is funny, global health, of course, and 62,000 plus cases in the u.s. and we any what's going on in europe the idea if in fact there was a biden administration, if in fact the senate were to go democratic or even if not, the possibility

of a large infrastructure bill is certainly one that is out there as well. and, carl, i guess, you know, may be something seen as a positive for the likes of caterpillar also >> yeah, i think the question too is what does that mean for the farming sector the current administration has been a big proponent of it you know, the farming sector took a big hit with the trade war. but they have been a proponent of various forms of stimulus to that industry. haven't heard as much from democrats as far as what they plan to do for the farming industry, but that's an area that has been hit very hard this year, with regard to increasing bankruptcies and inability to finance and so forth and caterpillar has a pretty big exposure to that world >> and finally, guys, we're going to talk some twitter later on this morning, jack dorsey with another tweet today, essentially, acknowledging that their policy or the communications around their

policy of restricting content has not been good. talk about that later, but shares are just slightly lower been a busy morning for rick santelli and we're going to get powell and claret on monday. back to rick hey, rick. >> yes, carl it is not over yet we're going to look at university of michigan sentiment survey and inventory coming out at top of the hour but, boy, we have had some big data and in two different directions retail sales very powerful, and industrial production, capacity utilization, surprisingly weak, actually look at intraday of 10s, you see clearly the pop at 8:30 eastern when the stronger data came out. move that chart up to two weeks. this is important, on the week right now, we're down five basis points and 10s down 6 basis points and 30s virtually unchanged on the day over two weeks, you see the path of interest rates on the long maturities, we have gone from basically just shy of 80 basis points to slight breach yesterday under 70 basis points. and if you look around the globe, it is actually much worse.

you know, other sovereign, bund yields a nasty week at seven-month low yields on the foreign exchange side, all about china. we all talked about how the chinese economy, big imports as we have seen on some of the numbers and not only here, but manufacture t many of the exports going to china where the demand is pretty good china is firing on more cylinders than many in the competition. you see it in the foreign exchange markets yuan at 18-month lows. look at the euro versus the chinese yuan, five-month lows. the euro currency is weak against everybody as of late look at this chart starting in third week of august against the dollar, this is the dollar index, the mere image of the euro it is hovering at better levels. let's call it the midpoint of the lows at the end of august, the highs that were right around, what, 94.50ish, 60ish, third week of september, we are at that midpoint and it doesn't instill confidence, though,

because the dollar index is still down big time from some of its 102, 103 highs earlier in the year leslie, back to you. >> trending upward, rick thank you. >> coming up, a call for banks to stop financing fossil fuels it is actually coming from members of the rockefeller family yes, those rock fell eefellers two of them will join us next. 20 years ago, i was an hourly associate cart pusher. the different positions i've had taught me how to be there for others. ♪ i started out as a cashier. i mean, the sky's the limit with walmart. it's all up to you. ♪ ♪

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twitter changing its policies on hack materials comes after a backlash from conservatives and the president over its decision to block links to that new york post story about joe biden's son hunter jack dorsey today tweets that straight blocking of urls was wrong and twitter says it will no longer remove hacked content unless it is directly shared by the hackers themselves or those acting in concert with them. also will label tweets to provide context instead of blocking links senator graham this morning says that it is likely they will seek to subpoena jack dorsey. i think next week. and then we'll talk about maybe

later in the day gene pi and the degree to which they may or may not have the votes to clarify section 230, which is really getting in the weeds now in terms of intermediary liability law. >> yeah, i've been trying to read about that as well. i'm sure you have too. even this morning on my twitter feed, but, i'm curious, can we put the tweet up again at the end when dorsey refers to new capabilities as being updated to refleb tct the new enforcement capabilities, what does that mean that tweet is not from him, but involving you know what they'ren about? what does that mean? why didn't they do it previously >> that is the million dollar question how many tools do they have in the toolbox to flag or block content? and, i mean, how long have they had those tools why haven't they been deployed up until now, three weeks before, two weeks before the election.

and this is, of course, just twitter. we're getting arguably some say even less transparency from alphabet and youtube, facebook, of course, we have talked to death, but it is really coming into extremely sharp relief right now. >> and to your point, earlier, carl, with regard to this section 230, and pi's saying he wants to clarify the scope of legal protections, it is certainly in the weeds, it could have large ramifications if that clarification of the rule extends to the liability on these big tech companies to really take a bigger role in patrolling the content on their site currently they're shielded and theonly reason to act is just based on reputation as far as i know in terms of the legal ramifications here so if a change to section 230 would make them more liable to the content on their website, i don't know how those capabilities as you mentioned would really play a role or if they would have to beef those up

or change their business models entirely i think that's really an important space to watch, especially as we talk about the twitters of the world, the facebooks, youtube, or google of the world, you know. i think that's going to be an important space to watch and i'm not sure that any change in leadership next month or in terms of electing people next month would change the desire to hold tech companies more accountable. it seems like kind of a bipartisan effort at this point. >> yeah. i mean, you look at the stock move, from 48 now to 45, people are in fact asking what would twitter look like if in fact it were responsible for the content and how would that change the way all of us, politicians included, interact with the platform by the way, david, on top of all of this, there was the outage last night which lasted a fair amount of time and then the company had to come out after that and say that that was not the result -- no evidence it was the result of a security threat.

but it has been a very long week for jack dorsey. >> yeah, yeah. i can see why he might want to step up to become executive chair, find somebody else to be ceo. >> you get in line as we go to break, take a look at this week's top performer on the nasdaq 100 zoom video topping the list.

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ready. welcome back tucked into the c.a.r.e.s. act is something that will help wealthy fliers for decades robert frank is with us. >> the gift that keeps on giving to private jet companies and fliers the act suspend the 7.5% excise tax. no expiration date for those flights. so you could buy the flights now and take them years from now private jet companies are

launching big bulk jet cards that don't expire for four years or even longer a lot wracking up big sales with cards of up to 100 hours that are tax-free if you bought 100 hours on a g 450 for $1.2 million, you would save $94,000 in taxes and you don't have to take the flight until 2024 some don't even have any expiration date. you can take these flights any time until the funds run out the irs has not given any guidance they are complying with the law, which of course didn't require a time frame the private jet industry is one of the few travel sectors largely recovered with business back to above 80% where it was pre-covid-19

back to you. >> this would provide a pretty big windfall did this 3r0e vied a stimulus from washington or as these discussions have unfolded in part of the conversation >> they did. in addition to the federal excise tax being waved, they have received many they would keep in the spirit of the 1 million jobs they didn't expect to rebound this quickly i think the question is should private fliers continue to subsidize private flights. that bill was done quickly we all know there will be mistakes this will be a question raised on capitol hill.

>> another feature, you can buy a private jet and write the whole thing off. >> we have a large number of private jets out there that was the benefit you could deappreciate ate immediately the $600 million is the industry that has benefitted and recovered enormously >> is it time on the ground or only in the air? >> that's a good question. i think it is just time in the air. >> nochb us know for sure says a lot. i don't know we'll take are bak here. consumer sentiment on the other side of the break. diane retired and opened that pottery studio.

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good morning welcome back dow is up 100 points the s&p trying to peak back

above 3,500. has been a busy morning. we continue to watch to the degree we can call them negotiations pfizer with vaccine. for that, we go back to rick santelli >> thank you not only getting an october preliminary read august business inventories are up 3/10. that's reasonably expected look at our import demand. we have to build inventories for our holiday season if we look at our preliminary in michigan, 81.2, a lot better than expected. we change this out at the end of the month. to give it a face, to the final read that was the best read going back to march when it was close

to 90. that was a solid read, we look at current conditions. versus the last look at 87.8 78.8 following looking at the conditions from last month definitely want to know coming down six months down the road like yesterday's philly seems to be positive. with inflation one year. move from 2.6 last month to 2.7 on the preliminary read and 5 to 10 yearout look, this moved down this is dramatic the final read last month of september to 2.4 october preliminary. carl, back to you. >> wow, a lot of information, rick thank you. our road map begins with

stimulus and stocks. especially from last night's duelling town halls. pfizer saying its candidate may be ready for emergency filing in november >> and the rockefellers are calling for banks to change their approach we begin with the presidential candidates facing off in two town halls here is what president trump had to say about a stimulus >> i want a stimulus she doesn't want to do it because she thinks it is bad for her election the fact is, she's wrong people know she's in our way she's not approving it she doesn't appreciate our people or our workers. nancy pelosi, we are ready to sign and pass stimulus >> head of u.s. government affairs, joining us with his

reaction getting reaction from that comment where he said nancy pelosi, we are ready to sign what do you make of that what do you make of the likelihood there is stimulus reached before the election? >> the key here is that we don't see it getting done right now. we are in the middle of political season both sides on the far right and left are not there yet the good thing is that those senate republicans and swing states and house democrats and swing districts really want it do that's the only reason we are talking right now. >> only reason the markets could have gleaned seems like a lot of i don't knows or i'll get back to you. is there a lot on the tea leaves the market could be reading. >> the differences are stark in a few areas. number one, depending on how

congress would end up. trump will have lower taxes. biden will want to raise on energy sector, trump will want to continue and biden be more regulatory. health care, trump wants to get rid of it in the courts. biden wants to improve it in congress those are the same areas we've all seen we don't think the debate has changed the electorate or the market >> we've been watching the market rally lately. what do you attribute it to? is it devoid of the concern of who wins the election or as the polls would indicate right now, we all know not to necessarily believe them that a biden presidency would not be that bad for the stock market >> that's right. our take has been markets on a macro level are not impacted at

all by the election. whether republican or democrat on the microlevel, there can be issues actually, the one thing it does matter on is that if there is a biden administration with democratic sweep, we think any stimulus would be larger than with a split government and the democrats at least keeping the house. >> i wonder what you think the read is in congress right now about the fed chair and his increasingly amped up rhetoric about the need for fiscal stimulus calling it tragic if we get it is the sense among members that that's a wake-up call or more hey fed chair, mind your own business >> it depends on who you are talking to they want that we are happy you are speaking it out. it is real for people on the

street talking about that k economy where certain people can work from home. we have to continue that part of the reason the market has been there, we think, okay the fed has a lot of powder dry and we think eventually congress will do the right thing. >> he said a blue wave indicates a key risk and that biden indicated an increase for the highest income individuals they are expecting selling pressure among the highest income individuals individuals at the end of the year if there is a blue wave as people look to chrrystallize thr

gains before the change. are you expecting that if there is a blue wave >> that's a great point. on the one hand, there will be a psychological move if you just take a moment, take a breath if you take biden and the democrats take every chamber, any tax increase won't happen until 2022 no way they are going to come in in the beginning of 2021 to do a tax that is effective. they are going to be like, oh, no they are going to raise our taxes. the reality is when it is going to happen. >> lastly, there has been trading around companies that have exposure to china with the hope in the next administration, there could be better administrations and things could improve on that front. is that something you could be expecting regardless of who wins

the white house or congress? >> that's a tough one. let me do my best. if trump continues to be president, you will see a lot of volatility you are not going to know what to get each day. when biden is in office, you'll be a lot more measure and volatile we'll be on an antagonistic need we've crossed china now and the view of the polling, 73% of the american public doesn't have a good view of china even if biden wanted to pull back and get peace with china, he can't do it unless he gets concessions. it is more about the style

>> one covid-19 candidate could be ready as early as late november meg tirrell is following this. >> we are getting news from pfizer this morning whose ceo filed an open letter he outlined there are three sets of information how effective, how safe and manufacturing data they could have that data in the next few weeks but it won't be until the third week of november until they have the amount of data they want on safety they should have that information available before that safety data mod erpa is on that same time frame. the two months is based on half of the people getting their second shot. both of these companies hit the

second milestone >> we could see them filing before authorization before the end of november. getting news on the first drug proven to help with covid-19, remdesivir yesterday, a world health organization came out saying essentially remdesivir and three other drugs they looked at appear to have little or no effect on hospitalized covid-19 indicated by overall mortality and hospital stay. gilead is disputing that the merging data appear inconsistent the debate about how helpful remdesivir is. of course, it is already being used widely in hospitalized patients >> i hope you can help investors take stock in the past week. some of the pauses at the trial

at j&j and lily. does this feel like a step back or part of the process of these late stage trials. >> we usually just don't pay so close. actually that trial. i spoke with lily ceo, he said he doesn't know what the trial found and what will happen suggested they want to know if this is not helping people in the more advanced stages of the disease and that it would be more effective given early diagnosis or prevention. we went to hear more but this is the way clinical development

works. >> thanks. watching boeing get a bit of a boost here as europe's top aviation regulator says the max is safe enough to return to service. we'll lkta about that when "sqwawk on the street" comes back

the city's vice chair says he's going to leave the firm and run for mayor of new york city

the question is what kind of reception he'll get and what challenges he'll face. joining us, pulitzer prize reporter for the "new york times. and good to see you both >> good to be here >> i know you say he potentially has a tough fight ahead what do you think he's up against? >> he's a contrast to de blasio. one of the things he has going for him is that he has 1 foot in the establishment, the business community and chief executives of the city. as an african-american male who has succeeded with a very impressive resume. he has that kind of personality that i think he can reach out to some of the disaffected

communities, minorities in the city and p emthfelt left out dug the bloomberg regime he does stradle those two groups >> how dig of a danger is is that for him >> i don't think it is a very big danger at all. sometimes they get the right person at the right time for all the reasons jim said i know ray for close to 25 years. i've worked with him for two years at merle lynch as an m&a banker he's thorough and listens well he's deliberate and knows how to

get things done. will there be oppo research and he's thought about how to get a nomination for a democratic party in new york city that is probably more to the left than he is. >> their own animal that exists unto themselves. you can't assume most far left candidates could win with deblazio one question i think you've had is whether he's fully into it. it is a nasty business a thankless task what is your sense on that, bill >> i would say ray does not have to do this he's, from what i'm told, he's doing it because his heart is in it and he believes he can make a

difference he's 63 years old and he cannot do it. the fates have mandated in his mind that he's going to do it and wouldn't have agreed to do it he doesn't do anything without a full amount of passion and determination. >> whoever is the next mayor of new york or any large cities will have quite a mess they inherit. when it comes to new york, we can all make assumptions of what the budget will look like. but it will be bad >> there is big challenges here. i will say i'm hardened and impressed in the field given that the field is as big as it is given the challenges. deblazio is given a lot of war far rhetoric

he's been attacked for him being rich, living on central park west they are tired of this here. there were real problems the rising crime, rising homelessness, the flight of wealthy people people want to see some of these things solved. now the pandemic flight has increased more. the talk about soaking the rich, where are the rich it is a problem. whoever the new mayor is will have to show some tangible progress before they can even think about raising taxes and charging people more to live here >> does that make a businessman more likely to get elected than maybe a career politician.

i would add to that pension issue, the subway situation where they are hiking fares in the back drop of almost the highest number of homicides we've seen in years. does that leave a businessman more likely to run favor or pay attention to other issues in the spotlight such as the health crisis, social justice issues. >> the marginal benefit. no question, there will be big financial questions through the city he's been calling out. supporters have been saying, look, he understands the spread sheet and debt the city will need creative approaches to financing. they'll need somebody who can

talk to washington, the congressman and president. the city is going to need federal aid to get through this difficult period i think his skill set is going to be helpful in all of that it is a clear break from the past we need a reset with the mayor and the police force he can deliver on that, as can other candidates the balance, the financial expert he's will be a benefit for him. >> i wonder what you think will be more important. that ease with balance sheets and pnls or the emotional component trying to rebuild relationships with people who have left, thinking of leaving or trying to restore the old sense of i love new york and what they were able to do.

build some emotional vie tallity within the city. >> working with the governor he'll get a long much better with cuomo than either did his ego is completely in check whereas those two guys seem to be way out of line as opposed to one up the governor. >> i think he, having grown up in dayton. being raised by a single mother, not knowing his father, coming out of that environment going to hoch kiss and three harvards undergrad, graduate and business school he can relate. it is a blessing that this guy

is willing to do this at this time when the city needs somebody like him very desperately. >> really good insight thanks as we head to break, looking at shares of chewy looking to buy from hold. indicating fluid households as a key driver that stock up almost 4% off the highs of 7.5%. stay with us your phone when from a machine that jams? i just emailed my wife's social security number to the entire company instead of hr, so... please come back. how hard is your business software working for you? with paycom, employees enter and manage their own hr data in one easy-to-use software.

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experience amazing at your lexus dealer. looking for value in your portfolio. these stocks are so beat up. >> we'll focus on one of them. energy is taking a beating one of the etfs attracts the sop ticker has been

walloped bank of america analyst adding 600 companies to grow saying their companies have been, quote, living on borrowed time with no return to investors and the commitment to live on the cash flow and the admission with the intend to spend all of that. if companies turn away from the focus on growth and value aspects. b of a is built on an opportunity they say is a house of cards to chevron alongside the purchase of noble energy b of a says they have moved back to levels they think the risk reward is attractive and will be comfortably covered. that's a buy, possibly bank of america saying that exxon is a buy and maintains

dividends to the cycle and management it has been unfairly penalized and will be materially undervalued. goldman operating on that way only to a neutral rating on the stock just less so and thinks the concerns are better priced in given the recent underperformance and all of the relative i havity. >> compared to the highs where exxon has said but maybe there is the price that is low enough but makes you attractive and in this case is low enough. >> some of the trickiest trades of the year. speaking of fossil fuels, rockefeller heirs will join us on why they are asking for

change on fossil fuel financing from the banks ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ "hmm's and ahh's" heard in-call. ♪

"hmm's and ahh's" who's sujoe biden.rop 15? biden says, "every kid deserves a quality education and every family deserves to live in a safe, healthy community. that's why i support prop. 15." vote yes. schools and communities first is responsible for the contents of this ad. who'sgovernor gavin newsom. the governor says prop 15 is, "fair, phased-in, and long overdue reform", that "will exempt small businesses and residential property owners."

join governor newsom. vote yes on 15. welcome back everybody siem sue herera. germany is among european countries reporting new record level of covid-19 cases. >> 1,000 more than the highs in march. in north carolina, a record of a different kind 330,000 people cast ballots on the first day of early voting, which they believe beat the one-day high in 2016 estimated 27 million people have already voted. millions of vehicles could face

recalls to fix seat belts to fix parts used made by teata until its down fall, they made seat belt webbing used in vehicles worldwide >> peloton is recalling some bike pedals. placed on some 27,000 bikes sold between 2013 and 2016. you are up to date guys. i'll send it back to you now turning the tables on oil initial alliesing how banks forward to pressure other u.s. banks to stop vesting. >> joining us now, both fifth generation members of the

rockefeller family thank you both for joining us. daniel, i'll start with you, your grandfather was rockefeller, chase manhattan bank have you started there at jp morgan what have you accomplished and what have you achieved >> thank you absolutely jp morgan is the starting point for one reason in a the bank is the largest financer of fossil fuels so far there is a difference between financing and lending. both sides of the house so to speak are important. in 2019, jp morgan fenced $26 million to the industry. the money that goes in today lent to fossil fuel companies for the expansion of infrastructure and ongoing

establishing of these firms putting us far above the increase that scientists have told us are critical to maintain to have a livable world and healthy economy going forward. >> they are not going to stop lending to fossil fuel companies, are they? >> they have to there is a strange thing where the business world is trying to wrap its head around the economy they are not just transitioning away as it is seen, if you think about the issue of global migration. 500 refugees between syria and the middle east caused massive disruption in the union and lead to brexit, people say.

if you extend that looking at the broader picture of climate change unchecked what happens if we get more to climate change and the global economy. in that direction if banks such as jp morgan don't change practices, it is poor business over the long term >> valerie, without access to capital, many players would go bankrupt is that your ultimate goal here? >> no. our ultimate goal is to save the environment and help as many people as possible as rockefellers we want to counter act the damage done by fossil fuels in the last decade, fossil fuel companies have been losing money despite they should be

protecting our health and instead going in to prop up these fossil fuel companies. where the money should be going and our focus to not only dry up capital to dirty energy but to put it into clean energy i'm from west virginia coal has been declining there in the 1950s, there was 154,000. now about 14,000 jobs in coal. the future is in solar or other clean energy >> do you think other banks and initiatives. at the same time, they have to underwrite the industry.

if a city is dealing with a flood, the issue of people moving to higher ground is less important than stopping the flow of new water into their homes. think about katrina, you could say let's move people out of their homes but that doesn't work well when new people are coming in. yes, people in new orleans should have safe environment but in katrina, they needed the water to stop. that's the situation we are in with fossil fuels. on top of that as jim cramer has pointed out as they are passing into the past they are at the bottom of the s&p 500 and taking giant loans in order to pay dividends to their share holders. there is a need to pivot away and absolutely to finance the incredible opportunities that

exist in transitioning our world to being safe and having a more equity system for all. >> the wind may be at your back. >> valerie, i'm curious, i know it is many generations since john d. or david rockefeller how do you respond when people say you you are biting the hand that feeds you you are going after an industry that is perhaps a result of the richest you've benefitted from >> we are very focused and to try to help those in vest virginia where i grew up we are moving into it is just a matter of how will we prepare for it. there are some risks like the coronavirus, which we could not have predicted and some risks we

know about it is a financial risk to all of us >> in the family, i am very grateful the family ever since our great grandfather has been very focused on the environment, preserving public lands. we have to understand we are interdependent and you can no longer protect parts of beautiful places we need to look at ourselves as part of the world and as john d. rockefeller always did, he always focused on science and the numbers, which is what we are doing here today too >> we should note the contributions from your family have been extraordinary for 100 years now. is this the right road now to pressure a bank not to lend as

opposed to be more proactive on the other side from the transformational technologies. >> one, what we are actually asking them to do is stop promoting fossil fuel companies which don't have a plan to transition that means fossil fuel companies themselves. to be able to support a low carbon and zero carbon plenty of companies there. what i'm looking for is to end an industry and inspire the banks and industry to work

together to shift away from the basic elements which is focused on fossil fuels right now looking at bp all all of the targets ahead of what you are describing that's a first step and absolutely the direction of other levels some places such as cool is more difficult. they'll have to get more creative banks here in the u.s. play a pivotal roll paying $22 million

and $65 billion so the ratio has to shift >> we are inspiring that race to the top. we need to be putting money where our values >> for the trillions of dollars of wealth being passed down to generations that care and are frustrated >> thank you both. appreciate it. as we head to break. we are keeping our eyes on shares today the company mixed a mixed quarter and noted service challenges to create a large and sudden increase in demand. looking at how the busy holiday season is under way. shar aesre down.

you can see that is the biggest lagarde now. back in a moment before we talk about tax-smart investing, what's new? -audrey's expecting... -twins! ♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. at fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan.

laying out his outlook on trading nation more "sqwawk on the street" coming up. before we talk about tax-smart investing, what's new?

-audrey's expecting... -twins! ♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. at fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. the experts are split on the economy. good morning steves. >> good morning. fresh about the job market remember the surprising 898,000 around the recently announced layoff increasing concerns the claim numbers could reflect counting the jobs making the situation

troubling. there are just two ways to look at it. americans receiving unemployment benefits in some way when you count those that dropped out of the work force in february, it is less than half of that at 11.2 million. still pretty bad no one can explain this big difference there are concerns there are repeated applications for claims that make it less reliable than it used to be. >> difficult to draw a firm conclusion from the claims and what it says about the rate of job separation since the state of california reduced backlogs and implement fraud protection california has not reported claims for three weeks it is working with bank of america and working to root out

flaws. to the extent, it's unknown. best course could be looking at the trend in claims worried about the sign not as worrying as the total number of claims. >> more about the claims that is right. in the filing 800 a week is a very, very bad number. at the same time trending upward >> coming up, investment risks and your portfolio how investments could be impacted that's next. stay with us we made usaa insurance for members like martin.

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with our election less than three weeks away, looking at different sectors of the market. today, the focus is on industrials. we think of industrials as sort of a baro meter.

with regard to each vabability f the sector >> thank you the industrial sector has really struggled the past couple of years trade wars and covid there were bright spots. agriculture was doing well, air fraft, trucks. that has been sof set by weakness in defense and conglomerates. it is a diverse group. i think in general, if trump wins, the group continues to benefit from low tax rates if biden wins there is probably less of a threat on trade wards on export part of the business there are themes for both of them regardless of who wins, that

will be part of infrastructure spending which both are planning and rebuilding supply chains whether due to covid-19 or the trade wars >> that would bring manning back and throw a lot of those plans into a different situation p what do you think would change in those areas probably regardless of who takes over, whether trump or biden, it seems like more clear plan laid out. uplift for the infrastructure names including cat, united rentalses oshkosh.

so it could have a pretty significant impact on revenue for this group >> john, i saw some estimates this week that said that government payouts could account for 40% of farm income this year how much contingent on further government aid to the farm bill for the likes of cat and deere >> well, deere has been a real success story out of the group it is one of the ones that is trading its near 52 week high and there is on going on back and on aid forth on aid to farm. but deere has added a lot of technology and artificial intelligence and sensors and innovative additions to its tractors and it is able to charge higher

revenues and generate ongoing subscription fees to service the new applications so i think deere is in good shape just based on steps that they are taking on factors that they can control >> and nicole, you took a look at some of the industrial winners that could benefit from biden's cleaning in plan who aare those winners? >> quite a few we talked about the basic infrastructure stimulus impact but beyond that, we've highlighted very positive impacts to areas like commercial hvac, so johnson controls, carrier, trane we've talked about electric vehicles which are part of the plan as well i have fewer companies involved in electric vehicles, but companies like tesla would benefit. 5g rollout is in his plan. and then renewable -- a shift to

renewable energy and to me the biggest beneficiary is gep. >> all right thank you nicole and john. appreciate those perspectives.. >> all right thank you nicole and john. appreciate those perspectives. >> thank you dow up a full percent. when we come back, where facebook and twitter content policies stand after a confusing week of communication.

good friday morning. it is 8:00 a.m and squawk alley is live.

♪ welcome to squawk alley we'll talk twitter in a couple minutes, but markets are trying to snap a three day losing streak as we watch stimulus h p hopes continues. pfizer with a potential vaccine. retail results were strong goldman saying a lot of that might have been deferred back for school spending in august and also some of the supplementary payments that came via executive order. big week for retail. >> and i'm also looking at auto desk which raised guidance after being very cautious in its earnings, it is up with 9% for the week better than 2.5% today and also zoom, i mean i don't know when i've seen a company have a better conference week. a year ago this was a point product that mad