30th, they're buying a lot of calls in pinterest, this has been a good one for us we've loaded up on this one as well >> all right jenny, need a final trade. just a name. >> sure. naviant. >> rob frnlg>> [ inaudible ]. >> joe >> pause >> pause is an understatement. >> "the exchange" begins now thank you, scott hi, everybody on this monday i'm kelly evans. ahead this hour, it's an underlying theme that's going unnoticed. stocks are being sold from the old to the young we'll explain how that's impacts the market. as oil continues to tread water at 40 bucks for months, the industry is consolidating with another deal today. what it's telling us and who could be next. and the great pickup shortage a strong debut for the iphone

12, maybe. and jpmorgan says don't give up on nikola. that's ahead we start with the markets. dom chu has that for us. >> we've been on either side of the unchanged line we'll call these markets stable. we've seen some fractional gains and losses fractionally to the down side. a quarter percent to the down side for the dow the s&p off a third of a percent. similar moving for the nasdaq composite. key level to watch for the nasdaq, 3401 at the highs of the day, we were up 19 in the s&p and down 18 at the lows a good amount of symmetry with regard to the trading range today. a hot part of the market is the cloud computing industry this etf, ticker clou, has been a massive upside mover up another 1% today. record highs for this etf and again since the pant lows we'p

lows, we're talking about a 116% gain one other place to watch in terms of the stock, l brands, price target upgrade by analysts at jpmorgan, that stock was given up for dead quite a time ago. up 87% almost a two-year high this is victoria's secret, bath & body works, this stock has not been good for some time, but still very much off the record highs from years ago kelly, back over to you. >> still one of the most surprising stories of 2020 thank you very much. let's check on things in washington where nancy pelosi put a 40-hour deadline on making a deal on the next round of covid relief she and the treasury secretary are expected to talk this afternoon and i'm almost afraid to ask, but ylan mui has the

latest developments. >> they are still trying to nail down that language over testing. the white house said it agreed to democrats demands on this, but now pelosi is criticizing the administration's plan as leaving out minority communities. there's still other potholes out there as well including the child tax credit state and local funding, the census is wrapped up into this even though both sides are saying they're hopeful and optimistic, the white house is acknowledging by negotiating with pelosi they risk losing their own party. >> i think it's important for the american people to say the president and secretary mnuchin and myself have not only made modifications, but made substantial modifications that come at the risk of jeopardizing republican support >> so the senate will hold two votes of its own this week the first will be tomorrow on a stand-alone bill to extend the

payroll protection program but the nearly 1$1.9 trillion price tag that the white house is offering democrats, they're saying they're not buying it >> that came after we got the budget gap figure on friday. my real question is how much leverage does speaker pelosi have to impose a 48-hour deadline >> well, i think what we've seen is that deadlines have come and gone with no action being made so that deadline, i think she put it out on saturday that would put it tonight or tomorrow morning to get something done this was the deadline to get something done before the election i think that even if there was an imminent break through, it would be hard to see action happening before november 3rd. >> that's for sure time is of the essence now ylan, thank you very much. while wall street has one eye on washington, the other is on the balance sheets of some of the nation's biggest companies

a busy week of earnings is ahead of us. kicking off today with eight dow components, lots of airlines coming this week and momentum winners like netflix and tesla let's welcome in david leibovitz and doug ramsey. great to see you both. david, i'll start with you how big a deal is earnings and what do you make of the markets moves overall today? we we're down 100 points now not a lot of action on stimulus. earnings coming, better chinese data, amazing home builder data this morning what's the most important thing for the markets here >> so i think in the very short-term, the most important thing for the markets starts with the letter "p. it's all about policy. momentum is starting to slow and we need policy to keep things on track. i view policy being in the driver's seat right now. with earnings season kicking

off, we had the banks last week and generally speaking things were better than expected, we need that data to come through on the upper end of the range. surprises have been very strong, which is a tailwind for the market over time i think if the earnings come through strongly here, we may be able to buy ourselves a bit more time but we need to see that policy lever get pulled to keep the broader recovery on track. >> david, if that's the case, the one thing that keeps coming to mind for me is we're not seeing huge reactions in the stock market to the stimulus talks. yes, you see a couple hundred points here and there, but this is not a market acting like what's at stake for this package is anything like the 2008 t.a.r.p. vote for instance >> i think that's a fair point one thing we found in the retail sales data, which is so important given the u.s. economy is 70% consumption, the retail sales data over the past seven months has been highly correlated with income growth. so effectively you've seen policy supports come through and

do what they're supposed to do but we are getting a sense that that policy support is waning. i do think the economy will experience a pretty significant downshirt here in the fourth quarter. that could potentially force policymakers hands i'm skeptical that a deal gets done before the election, but i think something could get done before the end of the year, particularly if the data comes under pressure, which is very much our expectation >> doug, let me bring you in and throw another headline at the markets. one that you care about or think is important, the prospect for a biden win or a blue wave polls would say a biden win looks likely at this point yet again we've seen very little reaction in the market why do you think that is >> i'm not sure. i still think deep down just given the huge surprise in 2016, i'm not sure that a biden win is really priced in i think the reason i say that is looking at evaluations and

sentiment where they are today if biden were to win and if the senate were to flip over to the democrats, i think there's a real risk that most if not all of that corporate tax cut from a couple years ago would be rescinded, and that was really all of the margin expansion you saw at the end of the economic cycle. so i think it would be negative and from a liquidity perspective, it's almost like the democrats are now the fiscally conservative party because they want to -- either way you will get crazy spending. the democrats just want to pay for more of it so that might pop this sort of free money illusion that investors are seeming to be suspended in now i certainly don't think it's fully priced in the broad market >> so, let me just ask you about one sector in particular you are recommending health care, you said the only holding that you think would be vulnerable is biotech. do you also mean in terms of an

election result there? >> i think they would be hit by a biden win and if the senate were to flip it's a group we owned for a while. we got good gains. we're not going to peel out of that group on our own handicap in the election. typically it's a group that also struggles regardless of who wins around election time and even for the next few months. our other holdings, managed health care is a group whereby a political result gave us the opportunity ten years ago. obamacare. who would have guessed that managed health care would be a massive beneficiary of obamacare, but it has been that's why we're looking for maybe some -- not just anticipating into the election but looking at price reaction after the results. let's say if some of the financial services especially the banks were to act well in response to a biden victory, to me that would be a tell that

maybe that extremely cheap group is completely oversold and could be prime for better times in the years ahead. again, we're paying not just close attention to trends leading into the election but also maybe something that has an odd response that could be a tell as to what subsequent leadership will be. >> yeah. who would have thought electric vehicles would be going wild in the fourth year of a trump administration, but here we are. some counter intuitive points, doug appreciate you both. doug ramsey and david leibovitz talking us through the markets. let's stick with the markets. we've seen an uptick in stock fund outflows but it's not the sign of bull market skepticism, it could be a matter of demographics mike santoli is here to explain. >> net outflows from stock flows have been more the rule than not over the last several years. part of that story begins with older americans and a structural

way long-term are now becoming net sellers of stocks. they own most of them. baby boom erers account for 53%f all equity holdings. millennials, the biggest demographic group own maybe 3% it's very, very split right here i do think it's probably going to be accelerating because of the ages if you look at the selling kind of undertow that will be with us for a bit, there's a mandatory element of this. if you have an ira, you have to start taking withdrawals at 72 40% of assets in there are pegged between 2030. this is all coming out of the market on a net basis. the big question is how we'll absorb this and what it might do to the change in market character. you will be selling a lot of these blue chip dividend paying stocks there's a new generation that's engaged with the markets, but it's more on a trading basis they want the stocks they know

in terms of product, not necessarily those that have the financials in there. and part of this also, i do think that can help explain why we have this corporate social responsibility movement now. companies are changing behavior. you can see for those target date retirement workfunds, millennials are starting to take up that slack. they bought almost $16 billion on a net basis whereas retirees sold more than 17 billion i don't think it's something that will swamp the whole market but it's something to be mindful of over time >> yeah. it's changing the influence the way companies behave they had a great debate on halftime last hour about bristol-myers and whether you can own it if robinhood accounts don't. appreciate it. thank you. quick programming note, tomorrow is the cnbc fa summit you can join jake clayton and more to address the new complex needs of clients and the event

has been approved for cfp continuing education credits i watched my dad trying to get those growing up visit cnbcevents.com/fasummit to learn more and register for the summit on october 20th conocophillips is buying concho we'll look at who could be next. and one widely followed economist says don't expect a stimulus deal until the end of january. he'll tell us why and his reasons may surprise you. and the great nationwide hunt for pickup trucks that's all coming up on "the exchange." she wanted a roommate to help with the cooking. but she wanted someone who loves cats. so, we got griswalda. dinner's almost ready. but one thing we could both agree on was getting geico to help with our renters insurance.

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. welcome back big deal in the energy patch today as it reels from low oil prices conocophillips will buy concho resources in a nearly $10 billion all-stock deal there could be a lot more of this to come a recent kansas city fed survey found more than half of energy firms predict a jump in deal activity as the future for oil gets bleaker ryan lands mentioned this as a reason for the concho deal >> we recognize it will go up and down opec, what do they do, what do the russians do?

what does the u.s. convention do that's all prices. what we created is something that can operate through the cycles and embrace the volatility that we know will happen in this business. it's completely unpredictable. >> here to drill down on this deal and who might be next is paul sankey. it's good to see you the last time we talked we were debating on how negative oil prices could go. the environment is better in that regard. what does today's deal tell you? how significant is that? >> well, i think some of the clients are disappointed that we have the best players, one of the best certainly top five players in the permian, independent concho selling for a mild premium levels that are obviously very depressed both in terms of the oil market, but also share prices. so, you know, i wouldn't say that anyone is thrilled this is happening, but i think the responsible people in the room believe that consolidation is

the right move ultimately these are two good companies that are combining to make a better company which ultimately is a positive >> so, i believe it's about a 15% premium, is that right also interesting to see the muted share price reaction of both companies, probably the rest of the sector as well why do you think concho was willing to unload itself at only a 15% premium? what does that tell us about the way the rest of the deals might look >> yeah. you are right. certainly in fact the 15% premium was before the deal was leaked, which happened essentially over the course of last week. so the premium is ultimately around where everyone thought it would be, but not more so that's really the big question, why would concho sell exactly as you highlight there was some reference made by team leach that said this new world we're entering where you have to run for cash returns to

shareholders, simply it's too difficult for these independents to do, because they have such high decline rates in underlying production he mentioned a 40% corporate underlining decline rate so they're forced to reinvest rapidly. that makes it hard to generate cash return dividends to shareholders that's really a fundamental problem. the history of the industry was that you grew, you grew, you grew, then you sold to conocophillips so the strategy worked, but there's no appetite for big premiums anymore and that's fundamentally negative >> so finally, what would you tell investors what would your picks be in the sector right now >> well, there's a lot of interest around d.o.g., are they going to deal, there was a rumor that maybe they were getting taken over eog is the best company but they have issues with federal lands we like pioneer, pxd, which has the right strategy and thinks

they can make it happen, this cash return strategy with low growth those are two good permian names. takeover potential with parsley. generally speaking, the permian is a great place to invest, we just need to get oil demand and jet fuel demand back we think the world will be surprised how much oil will be use used >> still, the fact that concho made this move now, if they saw those brighter times around the corner, why didn't they hold on? but thanks for joining us today. >> thanks. coming up, investors shrugged off the launch of the iphone 12 but the latest presays numbers for the phone show consumers. >> reporter: e-cigarette

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welcome back to "the exchange." we're near session lows, not at them, but the dow is down 89 points we were down about 130 at the lows and up about 100 at the highs. about a third to a fifth percent

decline across all the major averages all ten sectors are also lower right now. energy which we just spoke about, industrials and materials are the biggest laggards today energy down about 1% let's check in on some individual movers, we have hr moving lower after jeffries initiated the stock with an underperform and a $320 price target they see execution risk going forward for rh rh is down about 2%. the airlines are flying higher with hawaii and united leading the pack tsa reporting today that it did screen more than 1 million people nationwide yesterday. the first time volume has been over 1 million passengers since the pandemic shares of hawaiian up 5% united up that much as well. finally the solar etf tan is seeing a high today. solar edge, a 3% gain.

jinko also up. let's get to sue herera for our cnbc news update >> hello here's what's happening. new and disturbing video evidence connected to the case involving five michigan men accused of conspiring to kidnap governor gretchen whitmer has been released by state prosecutors. they say it shows men using guns and conducting training drills as part of their preparations. a defense attorney for one suspect says the video only shows the men exercising their constitutional rights. a new study from brown university citing asymptomatic transmission as a major contributing factor of covid outbreaks in nursing facilities. nearly 45% of people in these facilities showed symptoms another 20% did not show symptoms until after testing positive for the disease. cvs is hiring 15,000 employees nationwide as it gears

up to tackle an expected influx in covid and flu cases during the colder seasons 10,000 will be registered pharmacy technicians the expanded work force will also come in handy when covid vaccines are deemed safe and ready to be distributed. that's the news update back to you. >> we will take a hiring spree anywhere these days. thank you very much. as the pandemic kept stores closed and people indoors, stockx has seen a boom, that's the digital platform where people exchange sneakers and other things frank holland has the story. >> in the month of july, stockx had its best month ever. women and buyers over the age of 45, those have been the growth drivers during the pandemic.

as stores closed and in-person shopping ground to a halt this spring, consumers moved online one big beneficiary, secondary marketplace, stockx. >> we were surprised by what we saw as in may and june and july again unprecedented volumes in the platform >> reporter: valued at $1 billion, secondhand goods seller stockx says global sales came in three times higher during the pandemic than the year before. >> sneakers as a category outperformed the market. when you look at the returns if you were in the asset class of sneakers we have other categories in the market for example, puzzles as a category has grown 600%. >> reporter: for sellers like vernon simms, selling goods has become his full-time job. >> the past couple of years i'll do 2 million, $3 million in sales a year >> reporter: simms said when covid first hit, he wa worried about his livelihood he feared with stores closed down his supplies would dry up first. >> at first it was a little scary. you didn't know what was going

to happen. personal friends of mine had gotten laid off. they lost their jobs but like a month after that i had the biggest month i've ever had, the month after that was bigger than that >> we're seeing a bit of the consumer reaction of just wanting access to something that provides happiness and joy and for many it is economic opportunity. >> reporter: analysts estimate the global resale market currently valued at $6 billion could reach $30 billion by 2030. as the category expands, so does the demographic of users >> post-pandemic, we've seen people over the able of 45 grow by 30% that was a slice of the economy that now with the digital divide being overcome, and e-commerce growing we even see growth in those consumers on the platform which is exciting >> important to note these are high-end sneakers we're talking about. the average price in the u.s.,

$60. the average price on a sneaker on stockx, $270. >> wow $2 million to $3 million in sales, i would love to know what he's pocketing from that that's awesome, especially since his business wasn't hit harder i'm looking at shares of ebay. ebay is up 54% they've been a monster but it's clear they view these guys as a threat they just started saying, ebay has, they'll start authenticating sneaker sales over $100. do you think they could come back and take a piece of this market back? >> i think it's even a bigger market than we might imagine we spoke to a number of sellers, one i went to college with, he didn't want to mention how much he makes a year. people over the acge of 45 and women now dipping their toe into this so i think ebay is trying to get on to something that could an rocket ship that could take off.

consumer discretionary spending during the pandemic has been the biggest growth driver on the s&p and for sneakers these are not things people need, but it's things people want >> i guess it depends on your point of view saying i need them frank, appreciate it the iphone super cycle, is it on? that's coming up next, plus a contrarian call on a wall street favorite and box office bust all that and more in today's rapid fire when we started carvana, they told us

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welcome back let's catch you up on a couple stories that should be on your radar. it's time for rapid fire here to break down the headlines are phil lebeau, seema mody and don chu. we begin with the hottest model on the lot right now, a used full-sized pickup truck. it's selling at a huge premium compared to before the pandemic. ford pickup trucks have also become the number one stolen car in america shares of ford are still down 17% this year. why isn't this stock anywhere near as hot as its trucks seem to be? >> when you look at ford the

stock you're betting not just on the f series sales, new f series sales but the rest of the portfolio. they had issues as they've been trying to turn around the business in china. they have big exposure in europe you're looking at a far different animal than if you were just strictly looking at what happened with the used pickup market, which is on fire right now for a number of reasons. number one, you had plans shut down in march and april. so people who wanted a pick juppe couldnpickup couldn't get one there and now you have people saying i want to drive. i want my own vehicle. as a result, look tat those prices wholesale price is up $5,000 compared to february we talked with one dealer in kansas city, he's had people coming from across the country, one buyer from spokane, washington came to his dealership because he had the model he was looking for

>> dom, what do you make of it >> pickup trucks have been so popular in america for decades, and covid is picking up the trends pickup trucks allow people to do all kinds of things. if you're an entrepreneur, restaurant owner, small shopkeeper, those pickup trucks are what you do in terms of getting your stuff around as a small business owner i can see why. i thought the curious point was yours, kelly, the idea that it's such a popular vehicle that it is now the most stolen, not just because people want that truck but because the parts are so in demand right now the ford f-150 among the most stolen vehicles out there. >> if you got one, lock it up. >> kelly, i would say this love affair with pickup trucks is not confined to the u.s. you're seeing strong demand in

china, india, philippines where construction activity is picking up as economies try to rebound here >> that surprises me that definitely surprises me i can see a little bit of it, but -- any way, i wouldn't have thought pickup trucks in china let's stick with preorders for the apple iphone 12. a top apple analyst says apple sold up to 2 million iphone 12 units in the first 24 hours of preorders versus 800,000 for the iphone 11 last year, but that was just day one for the weekend as a whole, apple may have sold 3 million phones than last year. so what's going on >> strong reception for the iphone weeks ahead of the holiday season where we try to understand how the consumer will spend their money. this reflects how higher income households have not been affected by the pandemic like others and are willing to shell out $600 to $1,000 for this new

iphone >> dom in >> i think that it's kind of curious because those teams resonate with the internal conflict i had last year, and viewers of rapid fire know that last year i struggled with the idea of buying an iphone 11. ultimate ly i did because of th camera i knew the 5g model would come out this year but i pulled the trigger any way. so this year i may not buy the new iphone 12 because of the 5g. i don't know how much 5g capacity or bandwidth there is out there. it's like 4k tvs, it's great if you had one but not a lot of content was put out for it back then i'm wondering, even if you had a 5g phone, how much are you able to capitalize on that 5g depending on where you live in america right now. >> this analyst did say the wait times for shipments are approaching five days or so,

which indicates there's a decent amount of demand relative to supply it seems like consumers are more excited than wall street was when the thing debuted last week we were talking about ford's prospects, the share price down 17% this year. let's talk about gm. is it deal or no deal when it comes to gm and nikola jpmorgan thinks the two are still likely to enter into a strategic partnership by december 3rd today gm says nikola needs access to their resources. thisadam jonas thinks electric vehicles will be a third of all vehicles sold worldwide by 2030. gm wants a partof this market, but the fact that they're willing to bet on nikola with all the questions raised on it, is it desperation here >> i don't know if it's desperation. they made the deal, you could argue this has not been good in terms of their reputation for what type of due diligence was

done before striking this deal if they make it, it's not going to be a huge addition to the bottom line. they're not putting out money here this is a case where if it falls apart, gm is not out of anything besides the reputational hit do i think nikola and gm could work out an arrangement? probably do i think it will move the needle no, not right away in terms of electric vehicles, the focus for general motors right now is the hummer. the hummer electric pickup truck which they'll be unveiling later this week. that is the beginning of them saying we are bringing our "a" game or what we believe is the "a" game to the fight against tesla. and that's really what people will be focused on when it comes to evs and gm. >> seema, are the chinese going to line up for the hummer electric truck >> i think in those markets they go for smaller vehicles, but the

pickup is the exception. i wonder if the dotcom rama surrounding nikola, if that will affect it. i look at how much money gm put towards hydrogen fuel cells, i believe 2.5 billion, the fact they put so much money into this technology they need to find ways to test this. >> it's all about scale. it's all about scale >> how much longer is gm willing to withstand this -- what's happening with nikola? i guess everything comes back to that investment. >> and that's really what the focus of this is all about what can they do with the hydrogen technology? it still may work out for general motors a lot of people wanted to focus on the badger electric pickup truck. that's ridiculous. that's a small deal in the overall landscape. but it got a lot of attention from the former chairman and founder, trevor milton he was all about the badger electric pickup. that's not what this agreement

is about it's a small part of it. >> all right we'll turn to a bust at the box office this weekend's number one movie brought in less than $4 million in north america this time last year, disney's a film brought in $10 million. now china has officially become the world's biggest box office this year. with the gap expected to widen as we head into the holiday season the movie theater stocks are up today. andrew cuomo said most of the state's movie theaters can reopen except for those in new york city. last weekend a filing with the s.e.c., amc said attendance levels are down 76% from last year dom, i think this all puts into context that even this good news that you could call it for the industry pales in comparison with what they lost here i think about this as the more beholden hollywood gets to box

office dollars, the more beholden their content will, too. >> two big things resonated through my mind as i was going through that story first of all, when it comes to the direct story about the movie size and the movie industry, we know it's been tough for movie theaters and even the studios that are kind of releasing these flicks because of covid-19 and the lockdowns. peoples comfort level with that. it doesn't surprise me that the u.s. market here is more, i guess, slowed down in terms of how they'll adopt things the other thing i thought about is this is just another kind of microcosm, another battle on that front between the kind of -- between china and the u.s. is basically what it comes down. it doesn't matter if it's artificial intelligence or super computing, you're talking about the world's two biggest economies. china faster growing than the u.s. right now this will be the battle that plays out over the next several decades. in the movie side of things, we already knew they would be big, i need the u.s. to feel they can play catch up if the economy gets going

but china is in the position it is in now because it was able to command and conjugres conquer po not doing anything for a blarge amount of time >> yeah. see seema, last week at milkin a couple studio executives were asked if they would buy movie theaters they laughed off the idea saying no way these stocks, amc has told us about its concerns about cash flow this year >> it reminds me of the conversations happening in the hotel sector where you ask a hotel brand like marriott and hilton, are you willing to buy some of the distressed hotel properties and they would potentially laugh at that question as well i think the theaters can learn a lot from the travel industry, whether you're a restaurant, cruise line or a hotel, making consumers feel comfortable walking into a confined space, indoor space, and how to make that work is still the big

question you know, what kind of hepa filters are you using? you need to figure that out before you open your doors to americans. >> yeah. i thought it was encouraging that airline study that said covid is not spreading on the airlines or they haven't seen it yet. you would think a similar thing for movie theaters could go a long way now we'll leave it there thank you all. coming up, stimulus is still stalled and could be until next year according to one economist who has what his late january deal would mean for markets in the economy. we're ckn coleba ia up at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard. if you're concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes? if you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces

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welcome back to "the exchange." house speaker nancy pelosi is issuing a 48-hour deadline on stimulus negotiations if they want to pass a bill before the election this comes as mitch mcconnell says the senate will vote on a narrow 5$500 billion package thi week pelosi expected to continue talks with the treasury secretary this afternoon our next guest says forget 48

hours or 48 days, nothing will get done until after the inaugurati inauguration ian shepherdson joins us by late january, how much impetus is there to get a deal done by that point i guess if it feels that urgent by then, it will in some ways be too late or tell me about your thinking here. >> well, my thinking is mitch mcconnell doesn't want to do a big deal because he can't get it past some members of his caucus, he doesn't want to split his caucus to do a deal that the president wants because i suspect mcconnell thinks the president is toast why would mcconnell spend his political capital to do a deal that will get him in troubles with his members in the next congress so i think that he offers this 5$500 billion bill which democrats won't take, so nothing gets done. after the election, the lame duck session, nothing gets done. looking at the new congress in january. my guess -- my guess because

that's what the polls say is that it will be a democrat senate, just, and a democrat in the white house. so then we got all three branches of government working together that means we can have a bill ready for biden's signature when he's president in late january and then the money can start to flow in february so that's four months from now, which is a long time when the economy is stuttering along as it is right now. and the virus numbers are shooting higher again. but i think it's the most likely outcome at this point. >> so we spoke at the top of the hour about markets and one of my guests said they don't think they're pricing in a biden win at all because they're burned by what happened in 2016. what happens if the polls are wrong again and either trump wins re-election or the republicans keep the senate. what would those scenarios tell you about what that next round of relief would look like? >> yeah. the next relief will be smaller under those scenarios because the democrats have a much more aggressive plan. they want to offer much more

support to state and local government and reinstate the enhanced unemployment benefits that were ended on july 31st they want to reup the paycheck protection program there's a lot of stuff that they would do that republicans probably wouldn't do i find it strange that markets are -- some market participants are skeptical about the polling. the polls were a bit wrong in 2016, but not very wrong biden is way, way further ahead than hillary ever was. he's going in the right direction. h his favorability ratings are much higher. in the midterms in 2018, they got it dead right. so, you know, i think it is perverse at this point to assume anything other than a biden presiden presidency what it's perverse to assume anything other than a democratic senate, that's different the margin there is finer. most of the models suggest the democrats if they do take the senate will only have 51 or 52 seats. it's possible you end up with a biden presidency and a republican senate in which case there's way less stimulus.

that's a much more alarming scenario for stock markets than a democratic sweep, which is not the way most people in markets think. i think under these circumstances it's the right way to look at it. >> well, that gives us kind of something to keep in mind as we watch results come in. ian, appreciate it very much thank in appreciate it very much. thank you, sir ian shepardson on the outlook for the economy. >> hawaii as reopened but get willing in still isn't easy. jane wells is in kona, hawaii with that story. >> reporter: there's a lot of stuff you have to do, you have stt,ote up, take a tases n ju any test, it has to be at the right place. when we come back, aloha mainland

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welcome back hawaii has reopened to tourists after being closed to covid. but there are a lot of hoops, hoola-hoops that have travel verse to j-- travelers have to

through. jane >> there's a $2.3 billion budget deficit, about 15% of the 2020 budget after many delays and a lot of debate, mainlanders are allowed in if they have proof of a negative covid test within 72 hours of arriving. that himself to be a hawaii approved test and from the mainland and you pay for that out of pocket. the airports were so overwhelmed, they started accepting test results from non-recognized partners. that end today here on the big island, arrivals are subject to a rapid anttiant test bottom line, it's been a little rocky but getting better if you do make it here, it is not crowded, though some hotels

have not reopened yet, the royal kona has reopenedand on mau and on maui, the four seasons is not reopening until thanksgiving unless of course the state shuts down by then back to you. >> as i listen to the way so much rides on these covid tests, especially like you said, you're going to get that rapid test when you land, we've seen sports teams and the white house, and people get false positives what if you got tested and you were positive and it was a false positive and if you go and you're negative and it a false negative >> i have to tell you, we did not get our test results until we were in the air so we were sweating it.

then we took the antigen test. if you fail that test, you have to stay and get another test you can't rent a car without a negative test result and that's on your qr card here we won't know if there's a huge spike because of tourists coppicoming back most of the problems have been int inter-island travel. >> will it be island by island or we can't afford to be closed by now >> i think it island by island a 98% plunge in terrorism. in the big island, i don't think they'd have much problem at all shutting back down i was a little concerned the locals might be resistant to us

coming back. fortunately kona has the nicest people in the world and we have been treated great and with great appreciation that we're ba back >> i'm sure they appreciate the travelers like they never did before it interesting as we're highlighting hawaii as this exotic destination to be in. we haven't seen that in a number of years either. >> jane, thanks so much. jane wells for us on the exchange today stick around for "power lunch. thll join known gamer tyler maisen for more after this quick break. you

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to learn more, visit paycom.com good afternoon, everyone, or good morning if you're on the west coast welcome to "power lunch. stocks are near the lows of the session as the speaker of the house, nancy pelosi, says she is optimistic about getting a stimulus deal done before the election, but she has set a 48-hour deadline to do so. plus, one standout group is transports they keep trucking higher, near record highs we'll tell you how to catch that rally and whether it i