m good afternoon, everyone, or good morning if you're on the west coast welcome to "power lunch. stocks are near the lows of the session as the speaker of the house, nancy pelosi, says she is optimistic about getting a stimulus deal done before the election, but she has set a 48-hour deadline to do so. plus, one standout group is transports they keep trucking higher, near record highs we'll tell you how to catch that rally and whether it is the

truckers or some other area of transsport that are really the hot spot and the pandemics have been a game changer for video games and have taken upstage 70% over the past year and we have those details. "power lunch" starts now >> thank you, ty the clock is stiticking on what nancy pelosi is the last chance to get a stimulus package now. ylan >> democrats are holding a conference call right now before she talks to the treasury secretary at 3 p.m he said conversations have been encouraging but there is still a lot of work to be done

a few of the issues, testing and its impact on minority community, child tax credit, state and local funding, the census, workers liability and health care providers and that's not even an exhaustive list. meanwhile, senate republicans are balking at all of this majorityleader mitch mcconnell said it is heartless for democrats to continue their total blockade unless speaker pelosi gets her way. the president has expressed confidence he could bring republicans on board if he strikes a deal but he hasn't started reaching out to individual senators just yet and right now the gop has little appetite for the big, beautiful stimulus that the president he wants guys >> ylan, what do you expect to be -- to be spoken about in this call between pelosi and mnuchin.

given the vast divides between mcconnell and what he's saying and pelosi and what she's saying what is there to discuss >> well, there's a lot of details of the language that they have been going back and forth on for example, around testing it's what is being done to help communities of color on the child tax credit is what the democrats had proposed going to be equivalent to the thousand dollars per kid that the white house has offered. the democrats' original bill was something like 1,600 pages the amount of time it could take to get the legislative language right could be quite a while this is not something that is going to break through necessarily overnight, even though there's a lot of hope for some kind of agreement but the level of detail that they're going into makes it feel like this is something that's going to take even longer to put together ia, true go -- yeah, true good point let's turn back to the

markets, which are giving up those early gains as some stimulus hopes have faded. bob pisani has more. >> we're at the lows for the day. stimulus is the most important thing. part of the market believes it's still coming today and the other part isn't quite so sure on the reopening stuff that would be most directly affected by stimulus, travel and leisure stuff, airlines having a good day and a lot of retailers are up, like gap, for example, all having a good day. that sounds pretty optimistic. other groups associated with reopening, like some of the industrial names andthe material stocks, federal express, kansas city southern, all up, a paccar and others up, ford like

vornado, and even the residential ones, like beiequity residentials we're going into a good earning season overall. the beats on banks last week didn't make a big difference i think the bad news is and ylan touched on this, a little complacency out there. the market believes a vaccine is coming sooner or later oops, stimulus is coming sooner or later and stimulus is the bridge to the vaccine, therefore everything is great. given the high prices we're dealing with now, 1.5% from historic highs, the risk is to the down side. the market is being a little too complacent back to you. >> bob, thank you very much. we're going to pick up on some of bob's points just there the nasdaq on track for its longest losing streak now since august of 2019, but the russell 2000 does continue to

outperform, now up 9% in the month of october just so far and our next guest says smallcaps are your best bet heading into the end of the year joining us now is eric knutsen eric, welcome. good to have you with us you heard what bob just said, that the market may have grown a little complacent because it sup assumes, a, a vaccine is coming, b, a stimulus is probably coming and, c, it probably discounted benefiting an election outcome one way or another do you see it that way >> not in that term. we're expecting an elevated level of volatility over the next week or couple of months, let's say, as we still await clarity on these key issues, that there are going to be plenty of new headlines and that it is too early to be complacent on the key drivers, the outcome of the election and the path of

the virus and response of science and availablity of tr therapeutic and so forth we holook to take advantage of volatility to by more attractive assets at better prices. >> i'll come back to which in order is the most important order, vaccine, stimulus or election outcome let's move on to what you just hit on, which is the idea of you're looking for places where the valuations are still attractive i assume that large cap and especially large cap stocks -- a large cap tech is not where you're finding value these days. >> yes and that is reflected in our latest views we have trimmed our exposure, gone underweight u.s.

large cap stocks to fund an overweight toward smaller company stocks, which we think on a 12-month horizon we'll be beneficiaries of additional stimulus and reflationary pulse in the market and shifted to europe and japan where they are responding better in some ways, moving out of some of the challenges we saw sooner and represent avaluation if there were a selloff in names, we would go back into that segment of the market >> in other words, if you got a selloff in the big names, in the large drivers of this big rise in the s&p 500, you would go back if you got that i'm interested that you are looking seriously and putting some money into developed overseas markets japan you mentioned. i get it europe, however, is going

through clearly another wave of corona >> they are. that gives us shorter-term pause, we're only moderately risk on in those markets but the stimulus programs that they put in place where basically the north is agreeing to fund the south, underwrite some loans, guarantee that some loans is a game changer in terms of the economic framework of europe fiscal stimulus is going to be one of the most important legs going forward because we're certainly going to get strong monetary stimulus and they are -- and the european economies are generally more sensitive to global economic growth you see the improvement in china and asia and if on a 12-month horizon if we're look for reflationry beneficiaries, we'll see some of those in europe.

>> as we look at risks to the american market, disappointing headlines on postpone ement of vaccine or a vaccine more than 50% effective in 50% of the people, which is the hurdle they've got to get over but it's not a vaccine that would wipe out this disease >> right i think those would be the most challenging headlines because those will have the biggest short-term impact on growth and whether we are truly going to see reflationry growth and kind of the liftoff in the new cycle or protracted period of low growth, low inflation. so that is the most important variable once we get through the short-term uncertainty recollection >> eric, it's always great to hear from you, thanks.

>> kelly >> at thisle >> tyler, we have a market flash on intel josh >> intel reportedly nearing a deal to sell its unit that is valued around $10 billion. memory products used in devices like hard drives and cameras interesting news in that intel did sell its 5g mode embusinem e and bob swan thinking he can deploy capital more efficiently. earnings by the way for intel you, you expect plenty of questions on this, we did reach out to intel they're declining comment. >> josh lipton shows intel up a

little more than 2%. no one knows how the economic recovery will go over the next couple of months steve liesman is looking at the huge split in estimates for gdp. steve. >> from warped speed to stalled speed is the concern of some forecasters as they process of uncertainty of a still spreading coronavirus, the coming elections and online going battle over stimulus the rapid updates, the economy slowing to 3.7 this quarter from the break neck 33% of the third quarter but some q estimates as low as 0.2%, others as high as 8% at deutsche bank they say the later market recovery tend to be slowing more than anticipated, with i is another reason we're hesitant to raise our gdp just

yet. some are arguing that the springtime relief package injected enough money into people's pockets to keep americans spending stephen stanley sees group as high as 8% this quarter. now while some economists believe no new stimulus is needed, many think it is and that's a huge swing factor in the outlook. without it, september would have been, quote, the last hurrah in consumer spending, it's said, kelly. >> we're still a ways off what we were going into the pandemic. it looked like china had that pretty strong gdp figure and everyone is trying to figure out whether to take it a face value. you always wonder with gdp are they able to come roaring

outs massive shutdowns and be the first to get back to pre-opinipre pre-pandemic levels and go from there? >> you and i can have a long discuss and i'm sure you'd have a ton to contribute on how good the china economic data is countries that get the virus under control more quickly are going to come back economically more quickly than others it's pretty clear in the united states the coronavirus is still growing, it still creates uncertainty, still creates lockdown and it's still an issue that's holding back economic growth so whether china's numbers are right or wrong to the extent that they have the virus under control more so than we do, that would seem to be a factor in the differentiation. >> steve, thank you, sir

>> ty? >> coming up, fedex hitting an all-time high as the entire transport space revs up, we'll dig into what is driving the gains. and videos, an analyst will tell us what e thbest way to play that sector is right now that's coming up on "power lunch. stay restless with the icon that does the same, the rx crafted by lexus. lease the 2020 rx350 for $409 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

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welcome back with fewer film releases amid the pandemic, people are desperately looking for content elsewhere, specifically finding it with video games, multi-player gales like war zone, among us and falls guy are growing in popularity. triple a titles like call of duty and asassins creed are growing to be top box office tim, we should point out the fact you're talking up video games in general tells you how they've kind of made headway into the entertainment space does that represent a risk or opportunity for the traditional media companies you cover? >> well, you know, for the near term, as we all know, the box office release schedule has

essentially been delayed all of the films due out this fall, so that will come and you have companies like disney putting their films on to streaming services directly. but in our report today, we're talking about the rise of video gaming as an industry. it's an idc figure, 200 billion number, that's been up high single digit for many years, up double digits this year. we've got a console cycle coming this fall with xbox and play station 5 coming to market a lot of new demand from the consumer for gains it's not really a competitive threat, i wouldn't think to the traditional media companies. it's just their box office business is on hold right now while video gaming in this stay-at-home market is thriving. >> so you're also -- your firm is initiating coverage on coarse air tonight. tell me why and how this fits

together with what you're describing. >> sure. we've seen general growth over stocks now we're writing about video gaming growth in general being very, very strong, especially in the last several months of lockdown course air fits in nicely. we any a rising tide lifts all boats, in this case with video games. that means we think the consumers are going to demand more and better kwipt. so course air is riding that cycle nicely and more and more time spent will be more and more demand for high-end controllers, headsets and also streaming gear that they make a lot of the video gaming market is about e-sports, so filming yourself, streaming yourself playing gales, watching others play gapmes, so the microphones and the streaming equipment that goes into that, having a high-nd

manufacture of that we think plays them well to grow in this market >> we mentioned this industry is five times the size of the global box office and about eight size the time of the music industry it's basically the size of the global tv advertising industry and you allow that it might slow a little bit after a monster year here kind of fueled by the pandemic but my question is, where else -- we've been talking about course air it's up 5% today now that i know about it, this is a known known the video gaming phenomenon has driven these stocks already to such high levels, where do you think the best opportunity still is >> i'll just preface by saying that course air is the one gaming stock that i cover so i can't give recommendations o others in the space. my colleagues within mcquarry do have buy ratings on names like

sony and nintendo and we have a console psych untcycle in fronts we have stocks on roku and ads you have video game integration with streaming media netflix reports numbers tomorrow evening. there are a lot of different ways we think in the sort of broadly let's call it the streaming universe with a lot of different applications and a lot of these companies we think are well placed to grow. >> all right tim, thanks so much to join us we appreciate it tim nolan of mcquarry. ty >> coming up, ibm in a bear market down 20% from its 52. week high. the traders will tell you what to expect when its earnings report comes out after the bell today, you see it a little bit

higher today as we head to break, check out some stocks bucking the trend and hitting all-time highs today, including best buy. wow, look at it above $122 a share. e tothau desk is also there. there's more power lunch ahead we're excited to do business with you

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welcome back remember when ibm stock popped on news it was splitting into two companies? it wasn't even two weeks ago but it has given back almost all of those gains. let's go to dierdre for more >> reporter: we already have an idea of what to expect for the top and bottom lines because ibm provided preliminary results, revenue slightly above street expectations at 17.6 billion, eps in line investors will be looking for details around those structural actions announced. if that translates to closures, we could see shares pop. perhaps the biggest question, though, can new ceo execute on the spinoff plans, the so-called

$1 trillion hybrid cloud opportunity. ibm has been late to the cloud party, not just in market share but also in capex spending look at how capex expenditures shrunk that's about how much amazon spent last year alone. will the spinoff allow him to reinvest back in the business and what could it mean for ibm's capital return program >> thank you very much ty >> to break down ibm and where it could head, let's bring in our trading nation team for today. one is ari wald and this is a stock that has chronically, chronically underperformed technology stocks through one of the great bull markets of technology stocks of all time.

is there anything in the charts anywhere that suggest that that's about to change >> ty, not at all. i think the underperformance continues. first off, in absolute terms a rising tide lifts all boats. i think ibm it continue to move marginally higher as we get the broader advance with a key support level at 124, the recent low point of ibm but when you take a step back on this chart and you see the stock has been making lower highs for the last seven years dating back to 2013, amid what's been one of the best tech rallies since the 90 is astonishing. that's a sign of relative weakness and why we think the stock continues to underperform the sector and rise at a lower

pace >> thank you delanno, what do you see would there be any catalyst that would cause you to move from a sideline guy to a real buyer >> i think we're still side lined when it comes to ibm a um coucouple of things mentioe still need time to see if those strategies can be executed correctly. the hybrid cloud strategy, some of these things need time and we've seen that top line growth has been stalled for a while and the market and investors haven't liked what they've seen from that standpoint. we're still staying on the sidelines. we could see a higher move based on the broadcaster market but just for a stock that has been kind of underperforming for a while, i need to see more execution from what management

has done to jump in with significant capital. >> if you own it, should you hold it, dethelano if you don't own it, avoid, it right? >> for people who own from a lon long-term perspective. i wouldn't trade into earnings at this stand point. we want to see what management is doing and what's happening with a lot of the execution moves that have been made pap th -- been made, but right now i would not trade into earnings. for more "trading nation" head to our web site or follow us on twitter @trading nation. kelly? >> ahead the road ahead for transports what impact with the holiday season have on these stocks? plus welcome to the 62% tax rate why that could soon be a reality for some american under joe biden's proposed tax plan.

>> and conoco phillips, could there be more deal making on the way?

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i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update arkansas and florida are among the states starting early voting today. long lines wroapped and the bloc at the arkansas polling station right there. the justice department has charged six current and former russian military officers with computer hacking they're accused of disrupting the 2018 winter olympics and the 2017 french elections and also causing nearly $1 billion in

damages. a federal court himself struck down a trump administration plan to take away snap food benefits from nearly 700,000 unemployed americans the judge described the move, which was delayed because of the pandemic, as, quote, arbitrary and capricious, end quote. and valero energy has agreed to pay nearly $3 million to settle allegations the company violated clean air act fuel requirements. v valero also agreed to install pollution controls at its texas facility you are up to date ty, back to you. thank you very much, sue stocks right now at session lows the dow and s&p and -- that would be all three of the major market that we follow, folks there you see them in the red, t the dow down by about 1%, s&p down by more than 1%, the nasdaq composite off.

the transports have been outperforming the broader markets over the past three months our next guest is bullish on the group, especially the railroad stocks is all this optimism a good sign for the economy? jason seidel is managing direct o director at cowan. welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> let's start with where we saw. is it trucking first and rails first or vice versa? we started seeing a pick up in the summer we were talking to steve leaseman earlier this hour on how economists are all over the map going into the year. what is the trucking volume telling you? >> you're right. we first started seeing the trucking volumes start edging up in late june and then july was unusually strong it was actually above june levels that's not seasonally the norm the strength in trucking has actually continued we host a private trucker and logistics call every quarter we hosted ours early last week

and everybody on the call was pretty bullish and they're even calling for the strength to continue through the remainder of this year and actually into next year as well. >> so it sounds like a z but one of the asterisks is that a lot of the demand is restocking and once we achieve that, there will be a hangover, that the v becomes more of a side ways move from there is there a way to tell how much of this is restocking versus kind of the kind of activity that can keep continuing >> i think that's hard to fin poi -- pinpoint exactly there's been clear restocking going on and no more is that more evident than the port volumes coming into the west coast. before the pandemic started, there were fears the west coast

could lose15% traffic from the east coast gulf and now they can't even handle the freight they have coming in. a contact told us there's about 28 more ships coming into the west coast than was expected previously that's the port for quickest entry to start restocking some of the shelves but there's also some underlying strength beyond that we run two big proprietary surveys. our first is our shipper survey, that's going and asking all other railroad customers what they think about expectations going forward and we also have a cowan survey where we survey a bunch of private trucking companies. the rail survey constitutes $35 billion a freight trend, the trucking is about 25,000 private class a trucks when you look at economic answers in those survey questions, they were all pretty

positive if you ask both of them are they more confident in the direction of the economy, overwhelmingly the participants said yes they are. even growth expectations were both better than expected and both surveys were concluded in the last two weeks >> let's get tactical because, again, that is really useful information for everybody trying to figure out what's happening with the u.s. right now. for investors, you have outperform in several rail stocks what would your top pick be in the space? >> overall or top pick is -- we like some of the early successes in precision central railroading. we love their cross border growth they've been showing and we think they're well positioned to take hold on some of the near

showing trends away from the rail sector, our favorite name is xpo logistics we think this is a case of this company is going to either ultimately break up and realize value for the shareholders or the market's going to catch up to the multiples of their peers. right now we think they are scheduled for earnings in the coming weeks we think it going to be a very, very strong third quarter for them and we like their positioning. they have about a 25% exposure to retail and e-commerce that should help them out as well >> all right bull uish call for xpo there and perhaps for the whole economy. thank you very much, we appreciate it, jason seidel. >> another old economy sector is doing well, the industrials, up 13% in the past three months and one of the best performing groups in the s&p over that span if an infrastructure bill does

happen next year, could it propel these stocks even higher? seema mody is looking at that. >> the question now is whether there is an opportunity for democratic challenger for joe biden. strategists have formulated a play book if and when infrastructure increases they divide it into three areas. one is construction, and rebuild of road, bridges and highways, names like caterpillar and deere that specialize in this equipment. the second, transportation, cement truck and bump trucks it worth noting paccar is up 86% from its 52. week low and the third area is renting. it's been found companies amid this pandemic are renting more and that trend could accelerate. united rental, the poster child of this trend is up 170% from

the march low. the other question is how much of biden's $2 trillion plan will focus on building out clean energy infrastructure from electric grids to wind energy. now, it is worth noting industrials as a sector and now a smaller percentage of the s&p 500 versus five years ago, but analysts say that could change with the help of infrastructure providing a boost to profits and potentially their stock prices kelly >> thank you very much, seema mody >> we are down as the stimulus hangs in the balance we'll have more. plus despite all the turmoil, companies have been spending big bucks to spend other companies is more m & a on the way that's coming up

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welcome back with stocks at session lows, let's check in on the bond market rick santelli checks it for us

rick >> right after the great data on friday with retail sales, the market stopped at 75 basis points as you now see that's the area we are holding. we did have one data point today i found very important 85 for the national association for home builders sentiment index. that started in 85 and 85 is the highest since 1985 the definitive high. tomorrow we'll have housing starts and permits we all know that part of the economy doing pretty well. let look at wh let's look at the move index, the cousin to vix in the volatility area, it's been elevated and has more of a directional play with normally interest rates going down, but that isn't the case this time, interest rates going up. and the euro against the dollar, it still isn't the darling of the foreign exchange markets it's having a rare day where some of the short covering is coming off tyler, back to you

mr. santelli, thank you very joe biden says if he wins, taxes won't go up on anyone earning less than $400,000 a year. up next, we will tell you what might happen to those earning more than that as we head to break, check out what is happening to the dow a sloppy drift lower throughout the afternoon. now down more than 300 points, more than 1% session lows or thereautbos. before money, people traded goods.

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welcome back joe biden has promised not to raise taxes on people with incomes below $00,000 a year but what about people who earn more than that robert frank looks at the numbers. >> recent non-partisan studies confirming that tax plan would only raise tacks on those making more than $400,000 a year and cut taxes on virtually everyone else but the top earners in california and new york could face combined rates of over 62%. here's how that happens. biden's plan calls for the top

rate to increase to 39.6%. he also adds a payroll tax of 12.4% on income over $400,000 a year about half of that is paid by employers. but if you add in other provisions of the biden tax plan the top federal rate gets to 49.4%. in california, the top rate for the top earners is 13.3% you add all that together and the new federal rate for the top earning californians would face 62.6% in combined federal and state taxes. now, new jersey, that combined rate would be over 60% in new york city, it would be 62%. those would be the highest rates in over 30 years the biden campaign saying it's unfair to look at the statutory or the official rate what really matters is what people play when you include all of their deductions, credits and loopholes, that's known as the effective rate biden saying the effective rates in california and new york would

be closer to 50% back to you guys. >> robert. so you answered my first question, which were going to be these are the highest rates since when you said the highest rates in about 30 years my second question would be okay, for people paying those rates does that account for what could change with the salt deduction? >> so these rates that i just quoted include an assumed salt deduction. but this is -- the salt repeal is not officially in the biden plan so that's a little bit of a question it also does not include likely tax increases in new york and california we know the big budget deficits those states are facing. on the state, those rates could also go up a lot of unknowns. this is kind the middle of what we are looking at right now. >> yep pretty eye opening stuff robert thank you so much we appreciate it robert frank ty >> li all right. kelly, thank you very much

coming up, can the m&a surge we have seen continue through the end of the year? we will discuss that, and where it may be most intense and tomorrow is our first ever ever financial adviser's suchlt i will be there. we have a great group of speakers lined up. plus financial advisers who can earn continuing education credits for antiing. go to our bsweite for details and how to register. don't want to miss that. that is is tomorrow. join us, please. when i was in high school, this was the theater i came to quite often. the support we've had over the last few months has been amazing. it's not just a work environment. everyone here is family. if you are ready to open your heart and your home, check us out. we thought for sure that we were done. and this town said: not today. ♪

welcome back, everybody. we are watching the dow. we will talk about it in just a minute down 347 points right now. there has been a flurry of deals, private equity deals specifically heading into the end of the year. according to the data firm rafinitive, the month of september saw an m&a spike for a record third quarter it brings the year to date total to $2.2 trillion our next guest says more m&a is on the way we just heard about the possibility of higher tax rates under a biden administration are sellers in any sense being motivated to make a deal now to avoid higher taxes later >> absolutely. nice to be back. that is certainly one of the

things that is driving the o flow right now, which is people who own assets, entrepreneurs, family-owned businesses who cincinnati sense we are going to clearly see a rising rate environment are looking to monetize those assets now. >> they want to sell now and book the profits 5,500 m&a deals through private equity so far this year. that is a record pace. though i guess the total dollar value of those deals may be a little bit lower why has it been such a rich year for private equity -- p.e. deals? >> there is a couple of factors going on here. one you basically lost all of the spring and summer. we saw deal volume plummet down here to zero now we are seeing it kind of rocket back up you have a mix of the tax changes people are expecting

and having cash drag by not getting those dollars to work is a real mistake. >> how much capital is on the sidelines waiting to put to work so they can generate some irr above the rate of cash >> $2 trillion is what is sitting right now in dry pout powder what has been interesting is most people have expected private equity fund racing would fall off people couldn't travel, couldn't meet in person that hasn't been true at all while spending is up, fund-raising has also continued on the very strong. >> what i am hearing from people in the deal business is that deals are getting done very quickly in part because everybody has to do it virtually and things move at a greater speed because you don't have to wait and book the airline flight and whatever the hell is it is that you have do what do you expect the next wavon or the continuing strength to be in terms of sectors? is it technology is it health care?

where? >> both of those continued to be very strong. also there has been a tremendous resurgence in do-it-yourself businesses, gutter business, home project businesses, auto repair businesses, things that you can actually do in your free time now in your home. we have seen a huge uptick in that kind of retail their onniented sector as well. >> and private equity would be going out and buying manny's body shop? no what are you saying? i don't get you? >> in some cases they are. oil change businesses things like that. but you are also seeing businesses that are much more geared towards the consumer. things you can purchase perhaps on loin or at a local retail store that you are going to come home and actually do that project yourself in your own garage >> eric hirsch, always good to see you. thank you. >> my pleasure, thank you. >> kelly, we are closing in on a 400-point decline right now. >> we are, about a 1.3% drop

same for the nasdaq and the s&p 500. in the dow, intel is the only thing that's positive, ty. >> as we have heard some of the transports have been doing very well this suggests a robust season. we saw an earlier about how the transports are basically all booked up. >> we will take it first time over a million passengers traveling with tsa. still we will wait on the stimulus talk happening this afternoon. thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" begins right now. >> i'm sara eisen here with wilfred frost. stroks are selling off the dow giving up an early triple digit gain. the nasdaq looking at posting its first five-day losing streak in over a year global covid cases topping 40 million in europe and in t