tv Fast Money CNBC October 20, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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these two sides. seems to me the market will be wait and see twitchy with response to headlines, but not assuming that anyone's handicapping of this process -- >> we need both sides to show flexibility in negotiations. >> no vowels, you are right. there was a vowel in my script >> thanks for watching i'm melissa lee and this is fast money tonight snap pops, the stock rocketing higher in after hours session. we will break down the quarter straight ahead, plus the big morning on uber. and what the retailer just announced from snap that got the
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retailers feeling zeen netflix drops in earnings after mitting their mark >> netflix shares plummeting reporting its biggest earnings since it went public it was 19% short of expectations netflix all important was anticipated. looking ahead to next year, netflix is looking at tough comparisons. >> sorry hopeful ho a note --
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the ceos saying in their letter to shareholders that they remain healthy and engagement per member household was up solidly. that was key that means they shouldn't see any downturn with a growing number of other players, including disney, net flicks has its video call and it starts in about an hour. >> julia has the latest. with that call getting under way in about an hour we are in the zone we have the stock reaction, shareholder letter is all we have to trade on one highlight to me, tim, was that they expected it. they talked about it before, that there was pull forward from the back half of the year. why are we so taken aback here
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>> because it is a growth story and priced to perfection i have been out there thinking that netflix was overpriced. i have largely been wrong for a long time. if you look at the year over year subs, they were 6.8 over a year to the same quarter we have pulled forward a lot of subs, but the growth in a lineal approach to extrapolating where they will be is disappointing. hastings has done a good job with the linear follow-up tv they are happy, bring on the competition. i think the real question is cash burn. they have gone out of their way to buy content at any price. you see that in cash flow. do they have pricing power
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yes, more original content, more engagement than ever, but can they raise prices because otherwise i think it will be difficult on profitability in the short-term >> we have seen in free cash flow for the past two quarters has been helped by the fact there hasn't been any production so their costs have been lower they have talked about 2021 and the impact, expect the free cash flow to be negative to $1 billion, so that comes back into play immediately >> it is amazing that a company has had this much success and here we are talking about break even, like that is so great. however, to tim's point about cash flow and pricing power, i think the pricing power story is part of what the bulls hang their hat on which makes sense, but when they talk about the competition, you have to wonder how many dollars per month are people willing to spend and how do they divide that against all of the competition, so therefore
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does netflix lose some of their pricing power? for many companies and this one in particular, you have to listen to the call i would be hesitant to trade it in the after market now. there is a lot of color we want to hear from them. they often underpromise and overdeliver in a lumpy kind of way, over time they have had several bad quarters i would wait and hear what they have to say before i panic and sell it if i am a long-term believer i wouldn't short it. >> should we be concerned about competition or does that metric which they made so much of, the engagement of household, guy, address that issue, that households love netflix, they are binge watching
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>> i have been going right through the cobra kai. you can see the excitement in my eye. >> come on >> i am serious. only if ralph macchio is going to be back in it >> he is in it, by the way >> there you go. even more of a reason for season 3 to be a blockbuster. we have seen this 475, 560 range for a while. i thought we would blow through the all-time highs, but this is where we were. this 495 is where we were at the end of september it has been doing this dance between 480 and 560 for the last six months this is still a record year for sub adds for netflix which
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probably the price is taking that into consideration. i think it's netflix and everybody else i will say that again. i think netflix has set the bar and i think they have a decade head start on everybody else >> what about your take on the quarter given the stock has moved down 6%? >> i would have guessed that guy would have said double topee or triple topee i saw those as good resistance and this month it reached 572. 489 is your moving day average it tapped that last month as well that's important because it hasn't been below these averages
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for quite sometime if you look at the 200 moving average that goes back to the corona low it hasn't been that level for quite sometime i do believe it is netflix and everybody else, but i look at it this way when we first started talking about streaming, we thought you would have one or two. now you are going to have probably eight to ten and you will be replacing your cable and have all of these add ones, a $5 one or $10 one i think netflix should raise prices as aggressive as they have because they have a receptive audience you are going to have netflix and prime and everything else, but i think for a host of reasons this is a time to be a seller of tech i think this has been overbought for quite sometime
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>> let's bring in gene muenster on the netflix what are the major questions you would have for the netflix management on that call? >> amazon, they need to transform. it is not about growing subs nationally or inter nationally my question for investors are how will they transform the streaming business i think they will localize around national content which has been a strength of theirs. there is not a lot of questions i have for them. the reason is simple the result tonight is an example
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of why this business is difficult to predict they typically underpromise and underperform and in this case they did not hit the lower goal. i don't think there is anything on the call they could tell me that would change the longer term view. if they would return to prepandemic growth levels, that is an indication for what would be a great business, but not a great stock. >> when you say evolve the business, what does that mean? it seems like a lot of media companies are trying to evolve into what netflix is when you look at disney with the new
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emphasis on content, and peacock as well. >> that's the challenge. they are driving into what is a dead end this is a great service. consumers get a lot of value for their net flicks subscription, but i am thinking to make money in the business. if you think about google and what they are doing, amazon, what they are doing, apple what they are doing with ai and wellness wearables, these are transformative on our life i don't know what the case is with netflix. i don't know where they go with this the same playbook they have used over the last ten years -- this has been a $250 billion company, bigger than i thought it would
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be, but i don't think it will yield the same price appreciation >> i am skeptical of some the same issues, but the bulls will tell you the foundation of this subbase gives them the ability to flip the subbase at some point. what are your concerns around next year's content costs, any thoughts into that >> i don't think there is a ton of leverage in this business we saw it in previous quarters as far as when they have been cutting back some of the production coston the pandemic they still have a relatively large amount of debt they can have some margin of improvements over time, but i don't see this being a massive margin expansion story for the reason that content is king. you cannot pull back on that content spending
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i think probably the most bullish part of this netflix story is that the logical investor would say that it's run its course, that there is -- i think the esteemed panel today, it sounds like we are largely in agreement, i think the bull case, that's probably the most opt his particular thing on the stock. >> gene, good to hear from you netflix closed in the after hour session lower karen? >> if netflix is a decade ahead and still doesn't make money, these other competitors will have to drop off if they can't afford the content cost. maybe that's one benefit snap is another big mover.
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let's get back to julia who has the details. >> snap soaring on better than expected results with revenue growing twice as fast as expected a profit of 1 cent per share rather than the 5 cent per share loss anticipated they far surpassed the 4 million to 6 million that snap forecast for quarter three. they point to covid pushing advertisers to try snap. the augmentation has happened faster than imagined we feel well positioned to execute on opportunity ahead snap says fourth quarter revenues growth as much as 50%
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is attainable. and expect year after year to double they look for a 50% increase in time spent watching shows on snap some other social stocks on the move face book, pintrest, twitter moving higher after hours. >> not just that these are social stocks and you waste a lot of time on these platforms but snap was the first to advertise and the other ones use the advertising dollar as well can we extrapolate snap to some of the others? >> i think you can, but in the case of snap they are getting some derived benefit from this massive investment they have made talking about a 20% year over
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year growth cycle. these revenue growth numbers are far in ex-set of what we are seeing that's obviously the top line advertising is built into that yes, these are good trends and better than social media might have been expecting. facebook back in june said it was resilient. i don't think this has been a recycle boom for anyone in the media business social media, too. i think a lot of this is snap on its own giving a better result than expected. and it has been surprising over the last three quarters. >> when you see a stock pop up or down 22% on earnings, in this
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case up, they are caught offguard kudos to them. they labeled who are the key players in the digital ad space. it was snap and facebook they are weary of twitter monotizing but with snap they don't have the judiciary committees that facebook and twitter will have soon every one got on the wrong side of the boat. when corona hit what was the thirst thi first thing every one thought would be cut advertising. but with the kids off they are more and more into it. but that being said i would not
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be a buyer >> guy, if you were a believer that advertising dollars float into all of these platforms in the third quarter, where are they coming from the pie is only so big do we assume that broadcast tv, cable tv are the platforms losing out >> it's interesting. my pushback would be -- we have been pretty bullish on snap for a while and said that some of facebook's problems would lend itself for snap to crawl out from under the thumb of facebook that has proven to be the case you look at average revenue peruser in north america was 4.39 that is a staggering number. they are running their business better i would encourage folks of the
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interest to go back and look at evan spiegel's first conference call which was an absolute disaster, but ever since then they have figured it out good for snap. i would be inclined to see why you would take profits i would be inclined to stay with snap i think they have figured it out at least since it was a $17 stock back in january. >> the return of sports was a big thing for snap coming up, we will break down the after hours action of texas instruments. the number one biotech analyst joins us for an update othn e race for a cure. much more "fast money" straight ahead. ♪ ♪ ♪
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results. he says -- executives on the call say revenue is higher than expected. they call that a notable rebound in automotive returning to levels similar to a year ago they also called out personal electronics. we know people are buying tablets. industrial down, low single digits so about even to a year ago. applying to strong aerospace
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weak executives say they remain cautious as the broader effects of the pandemic could continue for a year >> guy >> the only problem with texas instruments, a great quarter love josh lipton he is the man. with that said, 26 times next year's numbers, even if they earn $6, that's not a cheap stock. amd probably has more growth potential and qualcomm is probably cheaper and has more potential. >> just because he led me down the path, when i look at texas instruments, you look at the stocks index of semiconductor. texas instruments
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underperformance, up about 17% year-to-date everyone has been favored at one point in time. i think that one is so overdone. up about 138 but you have ai, nvidia, everything under the sun there is a lot under the chip plays. we think we are watching and witnessing, the laggard ones that haven't performed i think you will see nvidia come in with techs in, you are starting to see a late inning game where they are catching up and not close to catching up >> you were talking about the pull forward effect in terms of netflix. would there be a pull forward effect in terms of these chip
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stocks in terms of how many pcs, tablets, cars, am i going to buy outside of whichever quarter they are produced? >> texas instruments is conservative a year ago they were giving guidance and two years ago that weighed heavy on the chips i think if anything this is positive for intel which reports on thursday which has not been outperforming. it may have secular issues, but in the ones that texas talks about being bullish, i think this is a good shine that's my interpretation but, yes, i think we have had an extraordinary period of electronic device pull forward let's soar where it goes >> uber trade is arriving next
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what their business could look like if they lose that ballot issue and have to reclassify drivers as employees costs would increase by 25 to 100% he said the size of the business would be a question mark in california that backs away from the notion uber could leave the state entirely if it doesn't go their way. on the other hand, it could set the tone for other states considering similar moves making uber looking less like a tech company and more like a taxi company. he said he has scaled back on ambitions and considering a new regulatory landscape as would have been unthinkable in another
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ear raw. its market cap around $64 billion may reflect that >> investors are giddy over the fact uber may not leave california and that by hiking prices they have narrowed the difference in rides between uber and taxi rides >> perhaps they are filling that gap and getting paid more for it there has been such a focus since they went public at delivering profitability, perhaps at the expense of long-term ambitions. they recovered in asia so perhaps they will recover here also, uber has made this pivot towards food delivery away from ride sharing >> what do you think about these
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comments from the ceo? >> i think he talked about profitability in 2021 which may be part of what moved the stock. i can't help but wonder, let's say if they have to increase prices dramatically, i don't know that uber rider will ride no matter the price. california remains a question mark i am not as excited about the delivery business. i think management is fantastic, but i don't love the business or valuation at this point. >> the price increase could be up to 20 to 40% above prices in the large cities in california and up to 100% in the small cities in california if you are a consumer and that discount for an uber ride goes
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away -- you are old-fashioned, you probably go outside and hail a taxi yourself. >> that's why you wait a long time for those yellow cabs to come by. they obviously have done study on this and believe they can put those increases in place and not have a huge disruption i am not sure of that in california uber has outperformed lyft i would be inclined to sell uber and buy lyft were you a fan of bo jackson back in the day? >> crickets. i say that because i don't know who -- >> yes, you do know
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welcome back gm posting big games as we count down to its big unveil of the new hummer >> for general motors the hummer is the big story, but earlier today an important story, the company said we will be ramping up our ev investments in the united states putting in $2 billion in investment in spring hill, tennessee and building an all electric suv coming out in
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2022 that raises the question what is going on with electric vehicles in this country? this year it is estimated that pure electric vehicles, not hybrids, but pure electric are just 1% of the market, it is predicted they will make up 10% by the end of next year and 25% by the end of the decade general motors are buying into the idea that the market will be ready to transition. ford, fiat chrysler, it has only been in recent years that general motors has been given credit for the ev port foal yeah remember, the stock was under a
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little bit of -- the electric hummer. it will be under the gmc brand, an electric pickup truck they are showing tonight. tomorrow morning -- don't miss this interview -- we will be talking with gm president on quack box at 7:15. mark has been spearheading, along with a number of others, a push towards electric vehicles we will be talking about that with him as well as the hummer >> an interesting car to electrify, a hummer, terchev pi truck so it may make sense in that way, but they are heavy so may not go far >> the reality is, you want a brand name that cuts through the
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clutter, and hummer does this. this is not the gas guzzling hummer, but all electric a number of people have said the hummer is a gas guzzler. why would you use that vehicle and make it all electric >> because you cut through the clutter. you wouldn't want to say it's the xyz. people won't have to work as hard to recognize it or check it out. >> everybody knows what a hummer is should gm get more credit for this growing electric vehicle portfolio? >> tim would argue, correctly, apparently, that they should, and even if they got a smidge of the valuation of a tesla, we would be in great shape for the
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stock. we are pushing towards level we saw this time last year, and maybe for the first time in a long time gm is getting credit for something they have had in place for three years. tim has been talking about it that long. maybe the market is waking up to it >> the hummer may be a great thing, but that's not the focus. the market will put whatever multiple they want on ev it's not just tesla, it's neo. take gm's core business. they have never been structurally profitable. but leave that alone they have been autonomous for a long time. california agreed to let them get on the road in san francisco and begin that autonomous mile gathering. how much does tesla get rewarded
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for significant they are building a new factory gm says they are spending $2 billion on a factory they can afford and build i think you have a good story. gm has been dead money for five years so a frustrating trade but i feel more comfortable. >> do you roll the dice on gm? >> i think i would it has not performed well, neither ford nor gm have performed well apparently it is at 50.11. that one looks like it is getting primed to move higher as well >> tesla earnings due out tomorrow as well we will break down how often traders are betting on this name and one is betting down on the
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million mark moderna saying they expect interim results for a covid vaccine next thursday with vaccine by the end of the year and astrazeneca expecting trials by the end of this week. it is great to have you, congratulations on the honer you received the notion of transparency now we are getting all sorts of updates, whether the ceos of moderna or pfizer, about the status of their vaccines, trials, when they expect to get approval does that make it harder or easier to trade these stocks >> when all is said and done we want to see definitive
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efficacy readouts. to get those, the ultimate trading event will matter when we get real data pfizer is through the end of october and moderna may have data the middle of november. that's when the next big trading it events could occur. >> when you hear these talk about potential milestones to look out for, does it get you excited? does it meet the bar or does it not make a difference from your perspective? >> the reason they are diving to those time points is because they are a certain expectation of the pace the cases are accumulating pfizer's expectation is over 30 to 45 days of tracking those
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folks, maybe 30-plus infections may kick in. so the timeline these companies are guiding you to is their expectation of how fast covid is happening in their trial >> your top space within your pick is gilead recently there is a question about the treatment of recomm d remdesivir why do you like gid yawl >> gilead defined itself with at least $8 based on a combination of their business momentum as well as new drivers of business which is remdesivir temporarily, but more importantly call options. i think the study that came out recently on remdesivir has a lot
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of randomization problems so i wouldn't read too much into that one. >> is this upside to any of your names or does your rating not hinge at all on development of vaccine. >> if there is one vaccine i cover, which is not saying general dollars, i would say merck. the reason is because it has been selected into dr. fauci's selected vaccines. there is no chance of merck being a vaccine player >> merck is an under the radar vaccine play what do you think of it? >> it is below 80 bucks as well. in terms of the company, forget about vaccine, but merck was
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based on the back of vaccines, it is trading too cheap. gilead's numbers are disappointing given the news they had when we talked about netflix, we have one in terms of the 146 traded back in june and the recent high failed that's concerning much we pointed out it needed to close above 146. >> shares of tesla hitting a roadblock ahead of tomorrow. we will talk to tesla next and at the top of the hour james cramer speaking to the ceo of lodge tech how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes? if you care about economic equality and social justice,
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the stock has been on a tear this year and expect more gains when earnings are reported hi, mike >> in tesla, we saw calls significantly outpacing by a ratio of two to one. they are implying a move of about $35 higher or lower. about 8%, sounds like a lot. one of the options seeing some of that activity was the weekly 450 call but many of those were being sold over $9 while not outwardly bearish, not expecting last week's highs to exceed that after this wk'ees earnings >> that's tomorrow up next, final trade ♪
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called ath leisure line called flex supposed to be out by march. interesting timing by then we might not be on the zoom calls >> that is longer that it should take they are doing private labels. i think they talked about profitability improving by 7 or 8% they are trying to do more outdoor, more ath leisure. doing everything they can. i would pick kohl's over macy if i had to pick one. >> i thought she would have pulled in lulu lemonoff with that one that department store space is tough to find bargains in. if you are able to trade it, melissa, you can wind up making,
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but you have to be quick, you can make 20%, but you have to be on the right side of it. i think lulu lemon is scheduled to trade lower >> around the orn. >> gm, stay there. >> karen >> on the yields of those snap revenue numbers, i think it will translate to face book long facebook. >> steve >> i have been long. we heard from a notable seller who said buy all space stocks and then said i was only joking. i am still in it there are a couple of milestones i think this one will work >> that's the challenge. s
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